web analytics

National needs better lawyers

Written By: - Date published: 12:06 pm, June 8th, 2022 - 68 comments
Categories: Christopher Luxon, crime, national, police, same old national - Tags:

The civil war between the Killer Beez and the Tribesman have provided National with the chance of banging the law and order drum.  And banging it they are.

This morning Christopher Luxon was reported by Radio New Zealand as follows:

A rivalry between the Tribesmen and Killer Beez gangs has spurred an increase in shootings, up to eight in a single night in Auckland. Luxon said New Zealanders were feeling unsafe.

“It’s another night, another shooting. There’s been 23 shootings in two weeks; violent crime is up 21 percent; gang members are up 40 percent. That’s the reality that New Zealanders are facing.”

He said police did not have the tools they needed to deal with the gangs.

“They want to do the job, they … have the capability to respond to crime, but they don’t have the tools.”

He called for the firearm prohibition orders that police wanted in 2017. The government has worked on introducing FPOs but they do not grant warrantless search powers.

“We’ve had two members bills that the government rejected around them, and they give police the powers to actually search our gang members and issue firearm prohibition orders and to seize those illegal guns,” Luxon said.

He said such a tool would allow police to search gang members and gang pads for illegal guns without a warrant.

He clearly has no idea what the current law says because the law already allows this.  Section 18 of the Search and Surveillance Act 2012 allows for warrantless searches of individuals if a constable has reasonable grounds to suspect that a person is in possession or control of arms and is either in breach of the Arms Act 1983 or because of his physical or mental condition either is incapable of having proper control of the arms or may kill or cause bodily injury to any person.  It is not clear if Luxon thinks the law should be even more permissive.  Parliament could grant the Police the power to search anyone anywhere at any time but I am not sure this is the sort of country that most of us would then want to live in.

Luxon calling for Firearms Prohibition orders is something that the Government is addressing.  The Firearms Prohibition Orders Legislation Bill is currently at Select Committee and was introduced earlier this year. Consultation on the Bill started in January 2020.   Interestingly three National speakers talked during the Parliamentary debate about the need for warrantless search powers.  I sense a pattern here.

To be frank the talk about expanding powers does not get us very far.  The best response to crime is to have a sufficiently resourced police force.  Labour’s significant increase in police numbers should be compared to National’s running down of the police numbers particularly compared to the population.  At June 30 2017 there were 8,955 constabulary employees.  By June 30, 2021 this number had increased to 10,219.

And the primary cause, Australia evicting all of its 501s, is not something this Government, or the previous Government, has control of.  Jacinda Ardern will no doubt raise it with Anthony Albanese this week when she visits and the chances of improvement are currently the best they have ever been.

Jarrod Gilbert’s statement deserves repeating:

[S]ociologist and gangs researcher Jarrod Gilbert yesterday said New Zealand had seen this kind of gang crime before.

He said people should be wary of politicians promising to lay down the law, particularly when in opposition, adding that legislative change was unlikely to make much of a difference.

Gilbert said solutions needed to target specific problems, rather than targeting the gangs.

We do need to address the causes of crime.  National appears instead to just want to stoke up fear for political advantage.

68 comments on “National needs better lawyers ”

  1. aj 1

    Would it be too cynical for me to suggest the more rabid Adern haters would stoke this gun violence going by driving around Auckland popping off a few random shots from time to time.

    False flag

  2. ISTR that Ardern has always said that we are not playing tit-for-tat over the 501s, but it really is time that we returned the favour and started deporting miscreant Aussies

  3. Gosman 3

    If the issue is the causes of crime how come violent crime is increasing when inequality and poverty is supposedly falling?

    • mac1 3.1

      What other causes of crime might there be, apart from inequality and poverty?

      What evidence do you have that these latter are actually falling, 'supposedly'?

    • Incognito 3.2

      Show us the stats that violent crime has been increasing.

      • gypsy 3.2.1

        Crime Snapshot | New Zealand Police

        Based on the data from 1 April 2021 through 31 March 2022, violent crime (as defined by the Police) has risen from 30,342 to 31,665 across NZ, a rise of around 4.5%.

        For the year ended 31 March 2021, there was increase of 3.3%.

        For the year ended 31 March 2020, there was an increase of around 5%.

          • gypsy 3.2.1.1.1

            So your response to actual Police data is an opinion piece that looks at data that is 2 years old. Seriously?

            PS – Gosman and Incognito specifically referred to ‘violent’ crime, which is the data set I quoted. Nevertheless, you have used data that is well out of date. Total crime for the year to 31 March 2022 was up by nearly 20% (205,752 to 246,657).

            • KJT 3.2.1.1.1.1

              Which is relevant to assessing it is a trend, or a blip.

              And to show that a 4.5% swing is actually not unusual.

              And evidence of an overall longer term decline in crime rates.

              Which shows that National’s carefully nurtured BS about “crime out of control” is fiction.

              2015 had a 10.5 % increase in the murder homicide rate. From a 7.5% decrease the year before. I betcha National wasn’t going on about “crime out of control” then.

              • gypsy

                Three consecutive years of increases is not a 'blip'.

                Make that 4. In the year to 31 March 2019, violent crime went up 10%.\

                Remember this is violent crime. You know, assault, sexual assault, abductions. I'll let some of the victims know you think it's just a blip, I'm sure they'll feel so much better.

                • KJT

                  What would you tell the victims in 2015? Doesn't matter because it would have embarrassed National?

                  • gypsy

                    I'd tell them we need better solutions to crime. The same thing I'd be telling them now.

                    • KJT

                      In reality you wouldn't have given a stuff.

                      Because like National now, you couldn't care less about crime victims, except as something to attack Labour Greens over.

                  • gypsy

                    "In reality you wouldn't have given a stuff."

                    In reality I have a daughter who has been a recent victim of crime. In reality I volunteer with a community organisation that deals with youth victims of crime. In reality I support solutions that get real results, and far quicker than 'start showing in 5-20 years'.

                    • KJT

                      "In reality" there are buggerrall solutions that are instant.

                      Which is why those who pretend there can be, are blowing smoke.

                      As you well know if you have been involved in the area.

                      By the way my ex apprentices, that were gang based and involved in crime, when they started with us, have been gainfully employed, and on the straight and narrow for years.

                      What a bit of care and attention can do.

                  • gypsy

                    "By the way my ex apprentices, that were gang based and involved in crime, when they started with us, have been gainfully employed, and on the straight and narrow for years."

                    Yep, I’ve seen the same outcomes in the workplace and on marae. Well done.

        • Incognito 3.2.1.2

          Thank you, so informative.

          From 1 June 2021 to 31 May 2022, i.e. the most recent 12-month period, violent crime went down from 32,836 to 28,722; it dropped in all 4 categories of violent crime.

          In summary there were 28,722 Violent crimes for the selected period. All crimes went down by [ -4,114 ] compared to the previous period.

          https://www.police.govt.nz/crime-snapshot-0

          You love to use quote & stats that suit your narrative, don’t you?

          Total victimisations for the 12 months ending 31 December 2020.

          This is a decrease of 6.6% (-18,822) from the previous 12 months.

          https://www.police.govt.nz/sites/default/files/publications/crime-at-a-glance-dec2020.pdf

          Gosman and you should change your tune before I take the wind out it angry

          • gypsy 3.2.1.2.1

            You've cherry picked to get the result you wanted. The data set you've nicely cajoled is barely 10 days old. You do know the problem with that, right?

            Using consistent year end dates, and not cherry picking, the data shows a steady increase in violent crime:

            For the year ended 31 March 2022, violent crime (as defined by the Police) has risen from 30,342 to 31,665 across NZ, a rise of around 4.5%.

            For the year ended 31 March 2021, there was increase of 3.3%.

            For the year ended 31 March 2020, there was an increase of around 5%.

            For the year ended 31 March 2019, there was an increase of 10%.

            The wind is coming from you.

            • Incognito 3.2.1.2.1.1

              Holding a mirror up to you to reflect back your own behaviour of selective quoting and cherry-picking data to suit your narrative but which don’t actually constitute a decent argument (aka variations on a theme). You have been doing this here for a long time, too long.

              It is quite common to use the most recent data available. Isn’t it the current meme that violent crime has recently gone up 'explosively' and 'exponentially'? Can’t see it in the data from NZ Police, can you? Perhaps the cops are a little behind on their paperwork and it will filter through next month?

              Arguably, it is the most objective to use the most recent period and up to the present day if possible, and it is possible. You failed on that point. You also failed to show the huge fluctuations in the data, which is why carefully selecting the date periods can make such an apparent big difference. Of course, taking your comments at face value one would expect a straight steep line upwards over the last 2.33 years, but the reality is quite different, isn’t it, as is clearly shown in the graph in the link.

              You can always try to find other data sets that show what you want to show. If you’re desperate enough. Ironically, I asked Gosman, not you, and you’re letting the air escape.

              Your tyres have fully deflated.

              • gypsy

                You used data from 2020, and from a random month without any longer term historical comparisons. I used data over a succession of years for consistent time periods that shows a clear pattern. I'll leave others to decide who is cherry picking.

                Meanwhile:

                [deleted]

                • Incognito

                  The graph in the link to NZ Police website covers all 4 categories of violent crime since 1 January 2020. I’ll leave others to decide who is cherry picking and whether crime is increasing as you imply.

                  Meanwhile, you’re in Pre-Moderation awaiting your retraction and apology.

                • mickysavage

                  Gypsy do you know what happens when more police are on the beat? The crime rate goes up. Also when you create new offences, as this Government has, the crime rate goes up.

                  Incognito has pointed out to you the flaws in your argument. Holding magically to certain data and saying that it is conclusive proof that everything is bad does not wash.

            • mickysavage 3.2.1.2.1.2

              Best to avoid inconvenient data and only talk about the convenient data eh?

          • gypsy 3.2.1.2.2

            …and all crime has risen from 203,813 at March 2018 to 246,657 at March 2022, an increase in 4 years of 21%.

            But there's no problem, eh?

            (and you do know we’re in 2022, right?)

            [Putting words in my mouth now?

            But there’s no problem, eh?

            Point to my comment under this Post where I said or even implied that there’s no problem with violent crime or even just crime in general in NZ. Or correct & apologise. Or take a week off. You’re in Pre-Moderation until you respond – Incognito]

            • Incognito 3.2.1.2.2.1

              Mod note

              • gypsy

                I think your just a bit sensitive at the moment. Completely understandable.

                • Incognito

                  Just hungry, but dinner is almost ready.

                  • gypsy

                    Ah, I understand. Enjoy. I didn't ,mean to imply YOU didn't think there was a problem btw. It was a general observation about what seems to me to be the level of denial coming out of government. Still, I'll take my medicine. See you in a week.

                    • Incognito

                      Not much of an apology, but I’ll take it anyway because dinner was nice and so is the coffee.

                      When discussing crime data, or any data for that matter, whether between Government, MSM, or Opposition, or here on TS and when one claims an increase or decrease or whatever, they have to back it up, with links and a commentary + explanation. Disagreeing about a change over time doesn’t mean stating or even believing that there’s no problem. For example, a high baseline with no change is a problem, while a low baseline with no change is much less or no problem at all.

                      So far, nobody here today has shown conclusively that violent crime in NZ is increasing, at least not over the last 2.33 years since 1 January 2020 according to the NZ Police data that you linked to.

                      Violent crime in NZ 1 Jan 2020 to 30 Apr 2022

                  • gypsy

                    "So far, nobody here today has shown conclusively that violent crime in NZ is increasing, at least not over the last 2.33 years since 1 January 2020 according to the NZ Police data that you linked to."

                    I’m not quite sure why you’re using 1 January 2020 as a starting point? The link I provided goes back years before that, and the data I listed goes back to 2018.

                    Edit – I’m curious about the answer to that because it may help explain your other comments.

                    • Incognito

                      Why don’t you go to your own link on the NZ Police website, create the graph (Crime type by Month) you want there, starting before 1 Jan 2020, copy it, and paste/post it here? Good luck, because in my experience it doesn’t go back further than 1 Jan 2020 and I’d happily go back further 😉 However, I think that period is a good indication of the violent crimes over recent time and it shows no increase (or decrease) over that period to present day, pretty much, contrary to Gosman’s comment and your claims.

                  • gypsy

                    "Why don’t you go to your own link on the NZ Police website, create the graph (Crime type by Month) you want there, starting before 1 Jan 2020, copy it, and paste/post it here? "

                    The actual data (I never mentioned a graph) is available at the link I provided going back before Jan 2020 (to 2017) by selecting the period beside "reported from"/"to". That's the source of the data I quoted above and it's very easy to access. The graph you're looking at is a monthly rest. You can create any trend you like based on when you start the graph. Start the graph at April 2020 and the graph shows a clear incline, but that too would be misleading.

                    I quote from the footnote: "Data contained within this report are based on information recorded in the Police dynamic operational database as the 8th of the preceding month. Changes made to source data after this date will not be reflected in this report. For this reason, comparisons between monthly releases should be treated with caution."

        • Craig H 3.2.1.3

          One reason for the increase in violent crime was the introduction of strangulation as a new serious offence. Not sure how much impact that has had, but other police reports note as a factor.

    • peter sim 3.3

      what planet do you live on?

    • Ed1 3.4

      The statistical issues have been covered by others – but we know that perception does not always follow reality. Active disinformation is of course rife, and some believe carefully planned through convenient cut-outs like the Taxpayer Union, Counterpoint and others – with National then 'responding' with claims that New Zealanders do not feel safe.

      Many will recall similar outcries against the 'surge in burglaries' years ago – an invented crisis is all that is needed . . .

  4. Blade 4

    ”The civil war between the Killer Beez and the Tribesman have provided National with the chance of banging the law and order drum. And banging it they are.”

    That is only part of the story, Mickey. You left out crime in the rest of the country.

    ''To be frank the talk about expanding powers does not get us very far. The best response to crime is to have a sufficiently resourced police force.''

    True.` And I would add a Commissioner who is respected by his front line, and a police minister who is on top of her ministerial role.

    ''[S]ociologist and gangs researcher Jarrod Gilbert yesterday said New Zealand had seen this kind of gang crime before. Gilbert said solutions needed to target specific problems, rather than targeting the gangs.''

    Now, more than ever, is the time to ignore Jarrod Gilbert and people like that perpetual excuse monger, Dennis O'Reilly. That Gilbert believes we have seen this type of gang crime before is disingenuous. We have never seen it on this scale, nor have we seen the crime wave that's garden variety crime and violence.

    That said, National deserves the serve they received.
    .
    Any ideas, Mickey?

    • Incognito 4.1

      We have never seen it on this scale, nor have we seen the crime wave that's garden variety crime and violence.

      Show us the stats.

      • Blade 4.1.1

        No need. I don't have any stats, because I don't need them. You are floundering. You don't need stats for everything. Ram raids and shootings nearly ever night, up and down the country. I have lived in this country for most of my life, along with many other people. I know we have never had things this bad.

        I nearly observe ''a domestic'' every time I go to the supermarket. That never used to happen. Of course, you want see those incidents registered in official crime figures.

        [Show us your stats – Incognito]

        • In Vino 4.1.1.1

          Bullshit, Blade. I have lived in this country longer than you have, and I too have read of these things in the sensational press. And there does appear to be a temporary spate. But:

          You say, " I have lived in this country for most of my life, along with many other people. I know we have never had things this bad." Me too, and I am calling BULLSHIT. I too go into the supermarket every day, and I have NEVER seen any 'domestic' nearly every time. In fact, I recall none at all.

          Many of us in this country are NOT worse off than before. Stop making shit up and pretending to have any concern. You are a troll.

          You are making up this rubbish for your silly political purposes. You are full of rubbish. Please go find a better pastime.

          • Blade 4.1.1.1.1

            ''Bullshit, Blade. I have lived in this country longer than you have, and I too have read of these things in the sensational press. And there does appear to be a temporary spate. But: I know we have never had things this bad." Me too, and I am calling BULLSHIT.

            ''Many of us in this country are NOT worse off than before. Stop making shit up and pretending to have any concern. You are a troll.''

            No, I really care about victims. Not criminals or white folk living in nice areas pontificating about things they no nothing about. Although you will note of late, eye witnesses saying'' We have never had this type of thing happen in our neighbourhood before.

            Quote:

            ''Aucklanders are regularly confronted with gun violence, organised crime, and rising gang tensions. One of the country’s top police officers says he’s seeing things escalate like he has never seen before.''

            "It's not just here, it's everywhere", said a woman who saw police swarm her neighbourhood after a man was shot dead in West Auckland a day later.''

            https://www.1news.co.nz/2021/12/26/gangs-and-guns-seeing-stuff-here-that-you-have-never-seen-before/

            ''You are making up this rubbish for your silly political purposes. You are full of rubbish. Please go find a better pastime.''

            Please stop the rhetoric…rhetoric…rhetoric! The day you post anything as half as good as my post above, may be the day I take you seriously. You are just another blind ideologue who doesn't mind the body count and ruined lives as long as your political beliefs remain intact.

            Now, if you will excuse me, I have to reply to Weka before I'm put down for maybe 2months.

        • Incognito 4.1.1.2

          From 2005 to 2021 (17 years) there have been a total of 16,816 Firearms-related offences recorded by NZ Police. That means on average 2.7 offences every day. That means some days there won’t be any and other days there may be quite a few. Over the last 17 years.

          You can check this for yourself: https://www.police.govt.nz/sites/default/files/publications/firearms-information-summary-1apr2022.xlsx.

          The first 3 months (I assume) of 2022 don’t show a major increase in recorded Firearms-related offences, but you apparently know something more, so put up or shut up.

          AFAIK, ram raids are apparently done mostly by youths under 15 years of age. These are presumably not the ‘501’ deportees from Australia mentioned in the OP who are held responsible for the increase in gang crime. But I don’t know this and you apparently do, so put up or shut up.

          I don’t know what happens in your hood and in your supermarket. I live in an ‘interesting’ area and have not noticed a change, but there are definitely all sorts of shit happening, sometimes really bad shit.

          The pandemic, other global shit (e.g. Russian invasion), and inflation & cost-of-living increases have been and are taking a huge toll and affecting people’s mental state. This means that more shit happens.

          You can argue your opinions, but not your facts. Especially if one can point to stats, for example, that don’t support your assertions or even contradict them.

          I am now moderating you.

          • Blade 4.1.1.2.1

            I told you before, I don't need stats because they aren't reflecting the reality happening in the real world. To have stats means you have to have data input. When you don't have data input and crime isn't reported as is the case at the moment, the stats don't match up.

            • Blade 4.1.1.2.1.1

              Case in point:

              https://www.justice.govt.nz/about/news-and-media/media-releases/nzs-largest-crime-survey-shows-burglaries-on-the-decline/

              As talkback has reported – and you yourself may know one person who hasn't reported a crime- burglaries aren't being reported. In many cases the police don't even turn up according to some callers. So how are these crimes declining. Let's see:

              “This unique survey has been running since 2018,” says Tim Hampton. “This drawn on around 23,500 interviews with randomly selected New Zealanders about their experiences of crime. For the first time, we are able to compare the data over three years and we can now see trends in crime.

              So, in other words a random selection and crap shoot. If they had advertised for people who haven't reported a crime I would have no trouble accepting the results if the data showed a decline in crime overall. I don't know the statistical odds of picking up non reported crime in a random sweep and then comparing that data with three random sweeps…and getting a result?

              Then there's this.

              “The Survey provides us with unique evidence because three quarters of crime incidents are not reported to the Police and therefore not recorded in the administrative data”, says Tim Hampton.''

              But it's still a random sweep and I don't know how it is collated. Therefore I stick to what my eyes, talkback and tv tells me. The survey includes people 15 years old and above.

              See notes to editor at bottom of the article.

              • KJT

                "As talkback has reported".

                "As I have seen".

                Real "evidence based" sources you have there!

                • Blade

                  Yep. And backed up.

                  “The Survey provides us with unique evidence because three quarters of crime incidents are not reported to the Police and therefore not recorded in the administrative data”, says Tim Hampton.''

                  And to be honest, although that backs up my perceptions and OPINIONS, even I have trouble believing that figure. If true, things are way worse then I have believed.

                  What about this:

                  1. ”The NZCVS has some significant improvements in design compared with its predecessor, the New Zealand Crime and safety survey (NZCASS). The differences in design mean that direct comparison of NZCVS results with its predecessor NZCASS is potentially misleading, even within similar offence type.”

                  So there were weaknesses with a previous survey. I believe there are weaknesses with latest survey and will not be surprised if it’s tweaked again in the future.

                  BTW- any reasons debate to be had from you? Of course not – just a sound bite and a little denigration.

                  • aom

                    Anyone who has been around a while would be cautious about using the statement, “The Survey provides us with unique evidence because three quarters of crime incidents are not reported to the Police and therefore not recorded in the administrative data.” to suggest there has been a significant increase in crime. One doesn't need to think too deeply to realise that since the data has not been collected in the same way by past surveys, to make anything of it is a nonsense. It was also noticeable a number of years ago that the incidence of burglaries increased dramatically when insurance companies would only accept claims when a Police report had been lodged. When writing reports for the Courts at the time, it was notable that property loss claims recorded significant items that the burglars denied having seen, let alone taken. Of course, many people don't bother reporting crimes as their loss, injury or victimisation is hardly worth bothering about. One also has to wonder how much the recent ram raid spate was fuelled by the graphic depictions through the media that would excite any young rebel who wanted a publicity fuelled 15 minutes of fame.

                    KJT was obviously 'on the money', you – meh.

                    • Blade

                      ''Anyone who has been around a while would be cautious about using the statement, “The Survey provides us with unique evidence because three quarters of crime incidents are not reported to the Police and therefore not recorded in the administrative data.''

                      Correct. Read my comment.

                      KJT was obviously 'on the money', you – meh.

                      I was taking you seriously until you wrote that comment. Now I know you wouldn't have a clue if you think KJT was on the money with a troll statement.

                  • Incognito

                    Another example of you misunderstanding the data and what they tell you/us. You tend to take the binary position again: if there’s something not quite perfect or absolute with the data and/or the methodology, if there’s any hole or weakness to put the finger on then discard it completely and turn on the radio for talk-back infotainment.

                    Data-sets are rarely comprehensive (complete) and perfect, not even the Census reaches that unattainable threshold and loft goal. Much social research and data relies of snapshots and well-designed well-conducted surveys and sometimes polls.

                    Talk-back relies on a handful, at best, hand-picked guests (often with an axe to grind) with generally very little allocated time by a spring-loaded primed host/interviewer or panel with an a priori outcome in mind, which is usually to boost the ratings and satisfy some other declared or undeclared agenda.

                    Of course, the NZCVS has to be done on and with a random sample! Otherwise it would skew the data and results! You should accept the data as a good reflection what’s been happening in NZ over that period, which is a decline in burglaries.

                    Making improvements to the design arguably increases the confidence in the results and in the strength and reliability of the conclusions. None will be absolute or perfect! But they’re heaps better that anecdata, and the rants & reckons of shock-jocks on talk-back. Yet, you prefer the latter because they’re easier on the ear & brain, they make you laugh, and they align with your prejudices and confirm your biases.

                    You simply want to pick & choose which data you like to believe.

                    The NZCVS gives a very good idea and estimate of the level of unreported crime, which is part of its design! It means we have a more complete and likely better picture of what’s happening in combination with all the reported data. NB the latter are not a survey or snapshot irrespective of how much they under-report. For example, and as an analogy, the Covid-19 daily new cases are thought to be under-reported, the number of hospitalisations is another and perhaps better indicator even though not all positive patients went to hospital because of Covid, and the number of Covid-related deaths is also less than perfect because it can be very difficult and sometimes even impossible to establish the exact cause(s) of death; dying with Covid is not the same as dying from Covid. Should we collect these data and pay any attention to them and let them help guide us in making (policy) decisions or should we do what you do and trash them in the bin and take our cues from talk-back ‘experts’?

                    I know what I prefer.

                    We will show later in this report that large proportions of both sexual assaults and offences by family members are not reported to the Police (see section 6). This means that Police and justice data is unable to provide a complete picture of the scale of family violence and sexual violence victimisation in New Zealand. The NZCVS enhances our understanding of that picture by covering both reported and unreported offences. The survey also provides rich information about victims often not available in administrative data sources, such as their ethnicity and whether they have a disability.

                    And

                    Section Six analyses data about reporting crime incidents to the Police. Overall, 25% of all crime incidents were reported to the Police (no significant difference between Cycle 3 [2019/20] and the previous cycles). [my bold] Over all three cycles, theft/unlawful takes/converts of motor vehicles had the highest likelihood of being reported to the Police (91%) while sexual assaults were significantly less likely to be reported (8%). The most common reason for not reporting household offences such as burglary, trespass and vehicle offences was “too trivial/no loss or damage/not worth reporting”. The most common reasons for not reporting interpersonal violence, sexual assault, and physical offence incidents were “shame/embarrassment/further humiliation” and “fear of reprisals/would make matters worse”.

                    https://www.justice.govt.nz/assets/Documents/Publications/Cycle-3-Core-Report-20220224-v1.9.pdf

                    Lastly, thank you drawing attention to these surveys even without making the case for why should pay attention to them 🙂

                    • Blade

                      ''Talk-back relies on a handful, at best, hand-picked guests (often with an axe to grind) with generally very little allocated time by a spring-loaded primed host/interviewer or panel with an a priori outcome in mind, which is usually to boost the ratings and satisfy some other declared or undeclared agenda.''

                      Not true from my experience. And it isn't the invited guests that make talkback so potent, its's the random callers, many of them who know something behind the stories currently in the media, or about topics that hive off from the main topic.

                      Here's an example that's yet to be proven. This goes back about a year ago. Keep it in the back of your mind:

                      ''A lady rang in who CLAIMED to have been a regional manager at the IRD for approximately 15 years. ( I forget the TB topic). She said the IRD is incapable of running major tax audits properly, She said the department was in disarray with many senior investigators gone and their computer system in a mess.''

                      Here is something I found. Small cheese, or proof of deeper problems?

                      https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/crime/128562101/inland-revenue-loses-evidence-in-fraudfromprison-case-leading-to-suppressions

                      But: from 2017. In support of IRD.

                      https://thespinoff.co.nz/partner/06-12-2017/tax-cheats-and-how-to-catch-them

                      ''Of course, the NZCVS has to be done on and with a random sample! Otherwise it would skew the data and results! ''

                      How?

                      ''Should we collect these data and pay any attention to them and let them help guide us in making (policy) decisions or should we do what you do and trash them in the bin and take our cues from talk-back ‘experts’?''

                      You misunderstand again. There are no talkback experts. Mikey doesn't do talkback. It's the callers who fill in the blanks for me.

                      We have criminals, ex criminals, crime victims ( reported) Crime victims ( unreported) police officers – serving and RET.

                      I believe they give me a better global picture of the state of things then reports and stats. However, talk back is never going to dictate government policy. While you and the rest are having fun about my rants regarding TB radio, all I'm doing is giving you a heads up on the medium that is taking the Labour Party apart piece by piece. And worse, towards election time the major leaders get to host their own hour spot on talkback. Will Labour let Jacinda face middle NZ?

                      ''The NZCVS enhances our understanding of that picture by covering both reported and unreported offences. The survey also provides rich information about victims often not available in administrative data sources, such as their ethnicity and whether they have a disability.''

                      That sounds like talkback radio to me.

                    • Incognito []

                      You said this:

                      So, in other words a random selection and crap shoot. If they had advertised for people who haven’t reported a crime I would have no trouble accepting the results if the data showed a decline in crime overall.

                      I quoted this back to you:

                      We will show later in this report that large proportions of both sexual assaults and offences by family members are not reported to the Police (see section 6).

                      Now, can you work out what would happen to the overall picture of crime in NZ if they were to do it your way?

                      Talk-back is self-selecting, just as an online poll is. It taps into its audience and people like you call in to have their rants heard and their frustrations aired on-air. A scientifically conducted study survey picks a random sample, just as for a political poll, to get the most accurate picture of the whole of the nation. That’s why NZCVS is heaps better than talk-back.

        • Incognito 4.1.1.3

          Mod note

    • Nic the NZer 4.2

      I know your application to be police commissioner is in the mail and its been good to see the amount of thought and preparation you have been doing in support of your application. Its been a real study in the right attitude to have applying for an unfamiliar role.

      We only hope your job application gets appropriate treatment.

      • I Feel Love 4.2.1

        I have never, ever seen a domestic in a supermarket, ever. I've lived in some of the poorest suburbs of Huntly, Hamilton, Whangarei & have been in South Dunedin for the last 20 years.

        There was panic in the ODT about gunshots in Concord a few days back, turned out to be a car backfiring.

        • KJT 4.2.1.1

          In one of those "rough" South Auckland shopping malls on Tuesday.

          Two very relaxed looking cops, walking around talking to shoppers, in polo shirts and utility belts. A whole bunch of very "unthreatened" looking, mostly brown people. Haven't got the message they should be "terrified of the massive crime wave" obviously!

          Not a domestic, gun or even a taser, in sight.

  5. barry 5

    These sort of crimes (the shootings and the ramraids) were very common in Australia, not long ago. Now both Labour and National are talking about going to Australia and asking what they did to keep them under control. The answer will be "deport as many of them as you can to New Zealand".

    I wouldn't be surprised if there is a significant correlation between number of 501s and increase in crime numbers.

    Of course, NZ deports criminals to island countries which pushes up their crime rates too.

    Tough on crime, eye-for-an-eye policies sell well, but have little effect on actual crime and push up the spend on prisons. Spending more on police helps as the criminals don't like getting arrested. The amount of time spent in prison is less of a deterrent than going there in the first place.

    Spending more on health and family support will not bring about immediate change, but could make a much bigger difference in the long term. Of course it might be another political party that gets to claim the credit.

  6. Grumpy 6

    If Bomber is correct in his view as to the reasons behind this upsurge in gun violence between gangs, then that points to a level of criminality and corruption that indicates a much larger breakdown in policing than anyone previously thought.

    https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2022/06/08/gang-wars-why-heavy-handed-australian-tactics-wont-work-plus-latest-nz-police-failure/

Leave a Comment

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • Meth addiction service launched in Eastern Bay of Plenty
    The Government has delivered on its commitment to roll out the free methamphetamine harm reduction programme Te Ara Oranga to the eastern Bay of Plenty, with services now available in Murupara. “We’re building a whole new mental health system, and that includes expanding successful programmes like Te Ara Oranga,” Health ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Creatives in Schools Round 4 open for applications
    Kura and schools around New Zealand can start applying for Round 4 of the Creatives in Schools programme, Minister for Education Chris Hipkins and Minister for Arts, Culture and Heritage Carmel Sepuloni said today. Both ministers were at Auckland’s Rosehill Intermediate to meet with the ākonga, teachers and the professional ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Opening speech for MEETINGS 2022
    It is my pleasure to be here at MEETINGS 2022. I want to start by thanking Lisa and Steve from Business Events Industry Aotearoa and everyone that has been involved in organising and hosting this event. Thank you for giving me the opportunity to welcome you all here. It is ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Reconnecting across the Tasman: Australia – Aotearoa New Zealand Foreign Minister Consultations
    Aotearoa New Zealand Minister of Foreign Affairs, Hon Nanaia Mahuta and Australian Minister for Foreign Affairs, Senator the Hon Penny Wong, met in Wellington today for the biannual Australia - Aotearoa New Zealand Foreign Minister Consultations. Minister Mahuta welcomed Minister Wong for her first official visit to Aotearoa New Zealand ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Global challenges reflected in March quarter GDP
    The volatile global situation has been reflected in today’s quarterly GDP figures, although strong annual growth shows New Zealand is still well positioned to deal with the challenging global environment, Grant Robertson said. GDP fell 0.2 percent in the March quarter, as the global economic trends caused exports to fall ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • One million New Zealanders vaccinated against flu
    More than a million New Zealanders have already received their flu vaccine in time for  winter, but we need lots more to get vaccinated to help relieve pressure on the health system, Health Minister Andrew Little says. “Getting to one million doses by June is a significant milestone and sits ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • NZ Principals Federation MOOT SPEECH -Friday 10 June 2022 
    It’s a pleasure to be here today in person “ka nohi ke te ka nohi, face to face as we look back on a very challenging two years when you as Principals, as leaders in education, have pivoted, and done what you needed to do, under challenging circumstances for your ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Provincial Growth Fund already delivering jobs and economic boost to the regions
    The Provincial Growth Fund (PGF) is successfully creating jobs and boosting regional economic growth, an independent evaluation report confirms. Economic and Regional Development Minister Stuart Nash announced the results of the report during a visit to the Mihiroa Marae in Hastings, which recently completed renovation work funded through the PGF. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Pre-departure tests removed from June 20
    Travellers to New Zealand will no longer need a COVID-19 pre-departure test from 11.59pm Monday 20 June, COVID-19 Response Minister Dr Ayesha Verrall announced today. “We’ve taken a careful and staged approach to reopening our borders to ensure we aren’t overwhelmed with an influx of COVID-19 cases. Our strategy has ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Foreign Minister to attend CHOGM
    Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta will travel to Rwanda this week to represent New Zealand at the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) in Kigali. “This is the first CHOGM meeting since 2018 and I am delighted to be representing Aotearoa New Zealand,” Nanaia Mahuta said.  “Reconnecting New Zealand with the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Joint Statement: Agreement on Climate Change, Trade and Sustainability (ACCTS) at MC12
    We, the Ministers for trade from Costa Rica, Fiji, Iceland, New Zealand, Norway and Switzerland, welcome the meeting of Agreement on Climate Change, Trade and Sustainability (ACCTS) partners on 15 June 2022, in Geneva to discuss progress on negotiations for the ACCTS. Our meeting was chaired by Hon Damien O’Connor, New Zealand’s Minister for ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • New Chief Censor appointed
    Internal Affairs Minister Jan Tinetti has today announced Caroline Flora as the new Chief Censor of Film and Literature, for a three-year term from 20 July. Ms Flora is a senior public servant who has recently held the role of Associate Deputy‑Director General System Strategy and Performance at the Ministry ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Government tackles elder abuse
    Eleven projects are being funded as part of the Government’s efforts to prevent elder abuse, Minister for Seniors Dr Ayesha Verrall announced as part of World Elder Abuse Awareness Day.  “Sadly one in 10 older people experience elder abuse in New Zealand, that is simply unacceptable,” Ayesha Verrall said. “Our ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • New connectivity funding for more rural homes and businesses
    More New Zealand homes, businesses and communities will soon benefit from fast and reliable connectivity, regardless of where they live, study and work,” Minister for the Digital Economy and Communications, David Clark said today. “The COVID-19 pandemic has shown us time and again how critical a reliable connection is for ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Phil Twyford to attend Nuclear Ban Treaty meeting
    Disarmament and Arms Control Minister Phil Twyford will lead Aotearoa New Zealand’s delegation to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) First Meeting of States Parties in Austria later this month, following a visit to the Netherlands. The Nuclear Ban Treaty is the first global treaty to make nuclear ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Australian Foreign Minister to visit for talks
    Foreign Affairs Minister Nanaia Mahuta will this week welcome Australian Foreign Minister, Senator the Hon. Penny Wong on her first official visit to Aotearoa New Zealand as Foreign Minister. “I am delighted to be able to welcome Senator Wong to Wellington for our first in-person bilateral foreign policy consultations, scheduled for ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Government’s School Investment Package supports 4,500 projects
    State schools have made thousands of site, infrastructure and classroom improvements, as well as upgrades to school sports facilities and playgrounds over the past two and a half years through a major government work programme, Education Minister Chris Hipkins said today. The School Investment Package announced in December 2019 gave ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • PM Ardern shares warm meeting with Samoa PM
    Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern had a warm and productive meeting with Samoa Prime Minister Fiamē Naomi Mata’afa in Wellington, today. The Prime Ministers reflected on the close and enduring relationship the two countries have shared in the 60 years since the signing of the Treaty of Friendship, and since Samoa ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Govt acting to increase supermarket competition
    “Food price data shows New Zealanders pay too much for the basics and today’s figures provide more evidence of why we need to change the supermarket industry, and fast," Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister David Clark says. Stats NZ figures show food prices were 6.8% higher in May 2022 compared ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • New standalone integrity entity for sport
    An independent body to strengthen and protect the integrity of the sport and recreation system is to be established. “There have been a number of reports over the years into various sports where the athletes, from elite level to grassroots, have been let down by the system in one way ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • New baby unit opened at Waitakere Hospital
    Parents of babies needing special care can now stay overnight at Waitakere Hospital, thanks to a new Special Care Baby Unit (SCBU), Health Minister Andrew Little said today. The new SCBU, which can care for 18 babies at a time and includes dedicated facilities for parents, was opened today by ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Joint Statement: New Zealand teams up with Ecuador, Kenya, and the EU to forge cooperation on trade ...
    The Trade Ministers of the European Union, Ecuador, Kenya and New Zealand have agreed to work jointly to forge an inclusive Coalition of Trade Ministers on Climate. This reflects their shared commitment to bringing the fight against climate change to the forefront of trade policy. The Ministers want to enhance ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Government open to explore a joined up public sector pay negotiation process
    The Government is interested in exploring with public sector unions a pay adjustment proposal, the Minister for the Public Service Chris Hipkins said today. This follows the New Zealand Council of Trade Unions writing to the Government proposing to enter into a process for a pay adjustment across the public ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Cabinet changes following Faafoi, Mallard resignations
    Kris Faafoi resigns from Parliament. Kiri Allan promoted to Justice Minister, Michael Wood picks up Immigration Speaker Trevor Mallard to end 35 year parliamentary career in mid-August as he prepares to take up a diplomatic post in Europe. Adrian Rurawhe to be nominated as Speaker Priyanca Radhakrishnan moves into ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Faafoi calls time on Politics
    Kris Faafoi has today announced that he will be leaving Politics in the coming weeks. Kris Faafoi has thanked the Prime Minister for the privilege of serving as a Minister in her government. “It’s been an honour to serve New Zealander’s as a Minister and as a Member of Parliament, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Further pay bump for new parents
    Paid Parental leave entitlements will increase on 1 July, resulting in up to $40 extra a week for new parents, or up to an additional $1040 for those taking the full 26 weeks of parental leave, Workplace Relations and Safety Michael Wood has announced today. “We know things are tough ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Investing to address youth homelessness
    Rangatahi experiencing homelessness are being supported by the Government to find safe, warm, and affordable places to live, the Associate Minister of Housing (Homelessness) Marama Davidson announced today.  “This Government is investing $40 million to support rangatahi and young people to find a safe, stable place to live, put down ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Transport Minister looks to power up EV imports
    Michael Wood has announced he will travel today to the International Electric Vehicle Symposium and Exhibition (EVS), hosted by the European Association for Electromobility in Oslo, Norway. “EVS is the leading international gathering to address all the electromobility issues. The conference brings together government Ministers, policymakers, representatives from industry, relevant ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Minister of Defence addresses premier Defence Summit on climate security
    Defence Minister Peeni Henare joined a panel of Defence Ministers to discuss climate security at the 19th Annual Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore today. He addressed the 2022 summit at a special session on “Climate Security and Green Defence”. The Minister was joined on the stage by his counterpart from Maldives and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • OECD undertakes leading report on the outcomes of trade for New Zealand women
    In a first in advancing the interests of women in trade, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and New Zealand have published a review on trade and gender in New Zealand, Trade and Export Growth Minister Damien O’Connor announced. The ‘Trade and Gender Review of New Zealand’ sheds light ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • BusinessNZ complaint to ILO on Fair Pay Agreements fails
    The Government has welcomed the outcome of the International Labour Organisation’s consideration of New Zealand’s Fair Pay Agreements (FPA) system, following a complaint made to it by BusinessNZ.  “Despite efforts by opponents to misrepresent the purpose of FPAs, the ILO's Committee on the Application of Standards has not found that ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Speech – to Diplomatic Corps Study Tour
    Ambassadors, representatives of your many countries it pleases me to convey a special greeting to you all on this sacred land of Waikato Tainui. Fa’afetai fa’apitoa ia te outou uma I le lau’ele’ele paiao Waikato Tainui Nga mihi nui ki koutou Nga Rangatira o te Ao i tēnei whenua ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Speech – to Diplomatic Corps Study Tour – Waikato Innovation Park
    Ambassadors, representatives of your many countries it pleases me to convey a special greeting to you all on this sacred land of Waikato Tainui.  Fa’afetai fa’apitoa ia te outou uma I le lau’ele’ele paiao Waikato Tainui Nga mihi nui ki koutou Nga Rangatira o te Ao i tēnei whenua o ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Prime Ministers reaffirm close trans-Tasman relationship
    Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese today held their first successful bilateral meeting in Sydney this morning. The Prime Minister was the first head of government to meet with Prime Minister Albanese in Australia since the he took office. “I was really delighted to meet Prime ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Trade Minister to attend WTO meetings
    Trade Minister Damien O’Connor travels to Europe today for the World Trade Organisation (WTO) Twelfth Ministerial Conference (MC12). While at the WTO he will meet with ministerial counterparts from other countries to discuss bilateral and regional trade and economic issues, and progress New Zealand’s ongoing EU-NZ FTA negotiations. He will also ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Government takes bowel cancer programme nationwide
    The Government’s lifesaving bowel-screening programme is now available across the whole country, Health Minister Andrew Little said today. The programme has been successfully rolled out across the country over five years. In that time, cancers have been detected in 1400 people as a result of screening. Thirty-five per cent of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Speech to New Zealand General Practice Conference and Medical Exhibition
      Tēnā tātou katoa Kei ngā pou o te whare hauora ki Aotearoa, kei te mihi. Tēnā koutou i tā koutou pōwhiri mai i ahau. E mihi ana ki ngā taura tangata e hono ana i a tātou katoa, ko te kaupapa o te rā tērā. Tēnā koutou, tēnā koutou, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • O Mahurangi Penlink at the construction starting line
    The new O Mahurangi Penlink transport connection in north Auckland has passed another milestone following the signing of the construction alliance agreement today, Transport Minister Michael Wood announced today. As part of the Government’s $8.7 billion New Zealand Upgrade Programme, O Mahurangi Penlink will provide growing communities in Silverdale, Whangaparāoa ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • New Zealand Principals’ Federation Conference 2022
    Tena kotou katoa, It’s a pleasure to be here with you today.  Thank you for inviting myself and my esteemed colleague Minister Sio. I do want to firstly extend the apologies of the Minister of Education Hon Chris Hipkins We have lots to catch up on! The past two and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Funding boost to empower women to farm for the future
    Women will play a significant role in how New Zealanders farm for the future, and new Government funding will help them pave the way, Associate Agriculture Minister Meka Whaitiri said. “We’ve committed $473,261 over two years through the Ministry for Primary Industries’ (MPI’s) Sustainable Food and Fibre Futures fund to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago