National’s 2017 election list

Written By: - Date published: 12:52 pm, July 30th, 2017 - 21 comments
Categories: election 2017, national, Politics, same old national - Tags:

National’s list has now been announced.  And here it is.

1 Bill English List
2 Paula Bennett Upper Harbour
3 David Carter List
4 Steven Joyce List
5 Gerry Brownlee Ilam
6 Simon Bridges Tauranga
7 Amy Adams Selwyn
8 Jonathan Coleman Northcote
9 Chris Finlayson Rongotai
10 Michael Woodhouse Dunedin North
11 Anne Tolley East Coast
12 Nathan Guy Otaki
13 Nikki Kaye Auckland Central
14 Todd McClay Rotorua
15 Nick Smith Nelson
16 Judith Collins Papakura
17 Maggie Barry North Shore
18 Paul Goldsmith Epsom
19 Louise Upston Taupo
20 Alfred Ngaro Te Atatu
21 Mark Mitchell Rodney
22 Nicky Wagner Christchurch Central
23 Jacqui Dean Waitaki
24 David Bennett Hamilton East
25 Tim Macindoe Hamilton West
26 Scott Simpson Coromandel
27 Jami-Lee Ross Botany
28 Barbara Kuriger Taranaki-King Country
29 Matt Doocey Waimakariri
30 Brett Hudson Ohariu
31 Melissa Lee Mt Albert
32 Kanwaljit Singh Bakshi Manukau East
33 Jian Yang List
34 Parmjeet Parmar Mt Roskill
35 Jonathan Young New Plymouth
36 Joanne Hayes Christchurch East
37 Ian McKelvie Rangitikei
38 Simon O’Connor Tamaki
39 Andrew Bayly Hunua
40 Chris Bishop Hutt South
41 Sarah Dowie Invercargill
42 Nuk Korako Port Hills
43 Todd Muller Bay of Plenty
44 Maureen Pugh West Coast Tasman
45 Shane Reti Whangarei
46 Alastair Scott Wairarapa
47 Stuart Smith Kaikoura
48 Nicola Willis Wellington Central
49 Agnes Loheni Mangere
50 Paulo Garcia New Lynn
51 Matt King Northland
52 David Hiatt Wigram
53 Matthew Gregory Dunedin South
54 Adrienne Pierce Palmerston North
55 David Elliott Napier
56 Katrina Bungard Manurewa
57 Bala Beeram Kelston
58 Carolyn O’Fallon Rimutaka
59 Euon Murrell Mana
60 Simeon Brown Pakuranga
61 Andrew Falloon Rangitata
62 Harete Hipango Whanganui
63 Denise Lee Maungakiekie
64 Chris Penk Helensville
65 Erica Stanford East Coast Bays
66 Tim Van de Molen Waikato
67 Lawrence Yule Tukituki
68 TO BE CONFIRMED Clutha-Southland
69 Sarah Jo Barley List
70 Lisa Whyte List
71 Linda Cooper List
72 Dan Bidois List
73 Rahul Sirigiri List
74 Hadleigh Reid List
75 Graham Collins List

No major shocks but it is interesting that there has been very little movement there has been since last election.  And the top positions clearly reflect current caucus standings.

And National will struggle to get new people off the list.  They may lose a couple of electorate seats but this will still mean that they have 39 electorate MPs.  And I reckon they will struggle to get to 42% this year which will allow up to 11 list MPs.  On these figures Parmjeet Parmar’s, Joanne Hayes’, Chris Bishop’s, Nuk Korako’ s and Maureen Pugh’s parliamentary careers would be over.

There is no sense of of the sort of renewal that they had last time.  This list looks tired and staid, exactly like this Government.

And can someone tell Stacey [Kirk] of Stuff that reporters are meant to get content correct?

She said this in an article that appeared this morning:

When former leader John Key increased the party’s vote-share in 2014, as a third-term Government, it was a feat unheard of and one English almost certainly will not be able to repeat.

Memo to Stacey National gained 47.04% of the party vote in 2014 compared to 47.31% in 2011.

[Mea culpa re Stacey’s surname – MS]

21 comments on “National’s 2017 election list”

  1. Policy Parrot 1

    Re: Stacey Jones

    – You would have thought that a political journo would know better huh? But there was that infamous one party majority that was achieved on the election night 2014 (subsequently came back to 60, and then 59 by March 2015) that may have made those with less analytical skills believe a higher percentage had been achieved (instead Nats actually benefited from over 5% total vote wastage)

  2. The Real Matthew 2

    I think Stacey is talking about the absolute vote rather than the percentage vote though agree it is a little unclear.

    In Poll of Polls National is running at 46-47% so less than 42% seems a little pessimistic. At current polling National is looking at 12-13 new MP’s which represents a reasonable re-generation.

    Would be interesting to compare regeneration with the other parties on a same vote basis based on the last election.

    • lprent 2.1

      Perhaps the same kind of “perspective” would be usefulnto apply to the poll of polls?

      At this point in 2014, from memory it had National at over 50% on their own. Some of the more screwed polls from the usual suspects had them getting 55 or 56%. In the end they got 47%.

      Basically polls are essentially useless for accurracy this far our except to indicate trend rather than results. All the polls are showing National being well below their 2014 or 2011 level.

      If you want to be a meme sprouting dickhead here, then at least learn to be an accurate one. Bad enough having the stupid spinning from political journalists. We really don’t need it from commenters as well.

  3. swordfish 3

    Nat support in last 4 Polls – compared same point in previous electoral cycles
    (Reply to The Real Matthew)

    UMR (5-10 July)
    Nat … 42%

    UMR 2 months out
    2008-2017 Nat …51% … 42% …Down 9
    2011-2017 Nat …54%… 42%…. Down 12
    2014-2017 Nat …48% … 42%… Down 6

    Roy Morgan (26 June – 9 July)
    Nat … 43%

    RM 2 months out
    2008-2017 Nat …48% … 43% …Down 5
    2011-2017 Nat …57%… 43%…. Down 14
    2014-2017 Nat …51% … 43%… Down 8

    Colmar Brunton (1–5 July)
    Nat … 47%

    CB 2 months out
    2008-2017 Nat …53% … 43% … Down 10
    2011-2017 Nat …56%… 47%….. Down 9
    2014-2017 Nat …52% … 47%…. Down 5

    Reid Research (approx. 2-11 June)
    Nat … 47%

    RR 3 months out
    2008-2017 Nat …48% … 47% … Down 1
    2011-2017 Nat …54%… 47%……Down 7
    2014-2017 Nat …50% … 47%…. Down 3

    (figures rounded for simplicity)

    • Enough is Enough 3.1

      How does that compare with the way the polls were showing the left parties. From recollection they greatly undershotthe support that Labour got

  4. Gabby 4

    They’ll pop in a name for Clutha Southland after the election.

  5. Roy 5

    Look how high Woodhouse and Guy are! I mean seriously, haven’t they been there long enough, without any decent achievements? I think e.g. Maggie and Nikki are awful, but at least they’ve done something.

    Pretty sad bunch.

  6. 1 Bill English ——— Listing to port
    2 Paula Bennett——– Upper creek
    3 David Carter ——– Without a paddle
    4 Steven Joyce ——– Listening to tapes
    5 Gerry Brownlee ——– From Clutha under
    6 Simon Bridges ——–Ten new bridges
    7 Amy Adams ——– Promised for
    8 Jonathan Coleman ——–Northland

  7. Muttonbird 7

    Who’s David Carter? Never heard from him.

  8. Labour_Voter 8

    Guys – I am so thrilled you are all making fun of National list. Great achievement. Meanwhile I am worried to death that our party is at 24% in the latest opinion poll. None of you seem to care about that and suggest any ideas or plans to improve the polling. I am talking to all my friends (all former Labour voters) about Labour’s policies and what they are planning to do and nobody seem to care. This is really bad situation guys.

    • One Anonymous Bloke 8.1

      “all former Labour voters”

      “our party”

      I’ve run out of bingo cards.

      PS: Don’t despair, “Labour Voter” (lol), have a read of Swordfish’s analysis above. the CB poll always underestimates the Left vote, and the Greens are up more than Labour are down.

      If you get off your backside and knock on a few doors who knows what you could achieve? Unless you’re too lazy, or disingenuous, or something.

      Take your sincere concern™ about ‘your’ bad situation and do something positive with it, like the Greens 😈

      • Labour_Voter 8.1.1

        “If you get off your backside and knock on a few doors who knows what you could achieve? Unless you’re too lazy, or disingenuous, or something.” – Go and take your medicines.

  9. patricia bremner 9

    I note that any time the Left get any traction, there is a poll.

    When the Right trend down they have an outlier. (Brings the average up you know.)

    Just as having one party drop 2/3 points each poll shows an suggested trend.

    I think some of this is deliberate misinformation.

    I note one in five asked won’t choose.

    So how accurate is this? Or is it a fox in our hen house?

    I donated in response!! Put my money where my mouth is!! Keep Left!!

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