The latest Roy Morgan is the first poll taken after the Budget has had time to sink in. Nat+ACT+UF fell from 55.5% to 51% while Lab+Green went from 38% to 42.5%. Labour bounced a massive 8%. I reckon part of that is just correction from a rogue poll last time that had Labour far too low but there’s an underlying shift too.
The right track/wrong track numbers continue to trend down. New Zealanders do not want asset sales, fewer work rights, and National’s nasty agenda and are realising they have to vote against that ‘Nice Man Mr Key’.
At 49%, National is entering its danger zone. Lose a couple more percent and it won’t be able to make a majority with just ACT and United Future, it would need the support of another party on every piece of legislation.
Currently, National can make a majority with either ACT or the Maori Party and, in practice, gets the support of only one or the other on controversial legislation (except for issues of confidence and supply). ACT and the Maori Party vote against each other 62% of the time – that’s more than Labour and National .
How would they cope if the numbers meant the Nats needed both to pass any important policies? They wouldn’t.
Of course, that doesn’t mean Labour would necessarily be able to form a workable coalition either. There’s a range of results where there’s no stable National-led or Labour-led majority. Now, that would be interesting.