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Nats plummet, Lab soars post-budget

Written By: - Date published: 8:27 pm, June 9th, 2011 - 93 comments
Categories: election 2011, labour, national/act government, polls - Tags:

The latest Roy Morgan is the first poll taken after the Budget has had time to sink in. Nat+ACT+UF fell from 55.5% to 51% while Lab+Green went from 38% to 42.5%. Labour bounced a massive 8%. I reckon part of that is just correction from a rogue poll last time that had Labour far too low but there’s an underlying shift too.

The right track/wrong track numbers continue to trend down. New Zealanders do not want asset sales, fewer work rights, and National’s nasty agenda and are realising they have to vote against that ‘Nice Man Mr Key’.

At 49%, National is entering its danger zone. Lose a couple more percent and it won’t be able to make a majority with just ACT and United Future, it would need the support of another party on every piece of legislation.

Currently, National can make a majority with either ACT or the Maori Party and, in practice, gets the support of only one or the other on controversial legislation (except for issues of confidence and supply). ACT and the Maori Party vote against each other 62% of the time – that’s more than Labour and National .

How would they cope if the numbers meant the Nats needed both to pass any important policies? They wouldn’t.

Of course, that doesn’t mean Labour would necessarily be able to form a workable coalition either. There’s a range of results where there’s no stable National-led or Labour-led majority. Now, that would be interesting.

93 comments on “Nats plummet, Lab soars post-budget ”

  1. Bored 1

    Splendid, still a mere 4% to go before its evens….well done Labour, no more cock ups and self inflicted wounds. To the Nact parties, it is becoming obvious to all and sundry that you tosspots are selling us down the river, assetts, bending over to foreign interests to buy our country etc, whilst making the poor pay for the riches tax cuts. What I dont think iis factored in at all to the polls is what Joe Pasifika, and Joe Bogan of South and West Auckland think.

  2. George D 2

    I generally expect a movement in the polls about a month after events. Unless you’re a political nerd, you live in a low information environment, and need quite a while to consolidate information into a position (through conversation with others, anecdotal information, further media).

    I expect about a month between a set of events and a poll shift.

    • George D 2.1

      I manage to repeat myself in about two sentences… doh. I suppose it is the key to getting something through.

      • logie97 2.1.1

        Looked everywhere (I think) in the MSM and cannot find a mention of it. Before I say “typical”, anyone care to give the link as reported in our media… or I can feel a letter to the editor and an email to Afternoons to Mr Ever-so-humble-I-give-a-balanced-coverage-of-politics-in-my-opinion-anyway-Mora.

    • HitchensFan 2.2

      This is the best news in a long time. Keep it up Labour, and now is about time to unleash the dogs. Cunliffe has been doing a great job showing the bullsh*t Budget for what it really is. Keep it up. Make NZ see this that what is happening is the “change” they voted for in 08. How’s that change feeling now huh….a bit uncomfortable for most people except the 1% at the top

  3. All I can say is about freakin time !!!!!!!

  4. Salsy 4

    YAAAAAAYYYYYYYYY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Fuck yes, go Kiwis.

  5. RedLogix 5

    A result in the happy direction, but I’d look for several more in the same direction before calling a decent trend.

    And these polls give awfully noisy data for the minor parties.

    • Colonial Viper 5.1

      That’s about all you can expect with lazy, gappy, cheap polling methodologies unfortunately.

  6. George D 6

    By the way, if that’s a rouge poll, would hate to see a bleu one!

  7. calltoaccount 7

    Thanks Eddie, read the headline and thought I was dreaming. Made my evening!

  8. ianmac 8

    The increase of undecided voters to 9.5% might be good for the opposition too. Maybe there are some who are not as convinced about NAct after all.
    The other polls don’t say what the number of undecided voters are do they?

  9. M 9

    C’mon Phil release the canine tag team of Cunliffe and Mallard – I want to see Key clutching his political cojones with fright – 47% would do it I reckon.

  10. HC 10

    Don Key’s honey moon is finally over. Kiwis take a long time to let the truth sink in. That is the way it is in this antipodean nation. The budget made very clear that National has no real answers to the major challenges we as a nation face. There are at least a few within Labour that keep sending the message, and who knows, in the coming months they may even deliver some constructive and sensible alternative measures?

    The Greens are good at standing by their principles and to work for a more progressive, alternatively powered, sustainable and more productive, quality oriented economy and society. Their thinking is long term.

    Even NZ First has more common sense than the mad ideological lot we have run the show at present. So with more voters and prospective voters realising this, we may see that not all is lost!

    • Lanthanide 10.1

      I don’t think we can say the honeymoon is over until Labour consistently poll 35%+

      • HC 10.1.1

        Lanthanide: NO honeymoon lasts forever. You are right, it is too early for Labour to start feeling comfy re this. It should though give them a sense of “encouragement”.

        Mana will not deliver what it promised, because it has a leader that has some right views, but who has sadly shown too poor judgment and a certain track record of poor team work and genuine leadership.

        I may be wrong and stand for being proved so.

        Yet it is not an easy task to leave one party, claim new goals and then actually convince enough to vote for you.

        Don Brash has shown that he is anything but brash after the admittedly a bit “brash” coup d’ACT. He is beyond being of interest for 90 % of voters, largely due to his age, his past failures and his isolationist views on economic and social issues. He has good equally discrediting company by that twice disqualified former mayor of Auckland.

        Maybe once they get the message they open a new business for retirement homes, of which they would be the first to book residences in.

        Good luck to them for that, but for nothing else.

        • logie97 10.1.1.1

          My gut feeling is that Labour could take a caning in this irrelevant by-election. They should have stood well clear of it. If Kelvin does not win, the Nats will have a field day. It should have remained a scrap between Hone and Pita.

        • Jenny 10.1.1.2

          Mana will not deliver what it promised, because it has a leader that has some right views

          HC

          Hi HC Could you cite some of the Mana leader’s right views?

          • HC 10.1.1.2.1

            Hone Harawira has some “right” views in regards to the needs of beneficiaries in this country, because despite of the bashing that goes on again and again, most beneficiaries get a rough deal, where WINZ and many of the public expect a lot of them, but otherwise give little effective and fair support. I am particularly concerned about the neglect many sick and disabled experience. This is where Labour has betrayed those people in need, which gives Mana a chance to raise these issues. Hardly any other party, except the Greens, do offer similar support for the less fortunate in this country.

  11. Lanthanide 11

    This does look like a genuine up-tick for Labour. At 36%, it is their highest result since the election, and the last few results prior to the 28% rogue were 31-32.5%, so a real gain of about 4-5%.

    National on 49% is at their lowest, although they had several other polls on 49% or 49.5%, and one on 48.5%.

    The Greens have probably been underpolled, or have genuinely lost support to Labour/Mana with a poll at 6.5% after the previous high of 10% and following on from a string of 8’s and 7.5%.

    We’ll need to see another few polls to see if it’s genuine and consolidated or just a correction + rogue poll in the opposite direction.

  12. illuminatedtiger 12

    Any news reports on this? Anyone find it interesting how the media only report the polls if they’re favorable to National?

  13. Dan1 13

    I see there is another Dan in the universe of a different political outlook, so I’ll see how Dan1 works out!!
    My assessment is that the poll actually understates the move to the centre-left. The unhappiness in Auckland, Christchurch, Maoridom; the move to selling assets; the move to selling ACC; the move against remaining unions; the move to bulkfunding in education; the list is endless. The emperor of smile and wave has no clothes. His greenstone flecked suit might get him a knighthood but it won’t elect him PM again.

  14. PeteG 14

    I don’t see any trend in that, its quite a sharp move for the top three (although within preceding ranges), Labour can justifiably feel a bit optimistic or relieved, but too soon to celebrate. As others have pointed out, we need to wait until the next poll or two to see if there’s a trend.

    It could be a post budget over-blip, or the beginning of a change.

    And no joy for Brash. Nor for Mana (presumably in “Other”). Not for NZF.

    • The Voice of Reason 14.1

      Scroll down to the Government Confidence Rating, Pete, see if you can spot a trend there. By November, National will be where Labour was 3 years ago.
       
      BTW, kinda think Winston is doing OK, given that he’s not actually trying too hard at the moment. He’ll poll better closer to the campaign, when he’ll actually be newsworthy and relevant.

      • McFlock 14.1.1

        And the media might decide that their best chance is a Winston1 wildcard support for the nats of about 6%, like in 1997 🙂
         
        Not sure he’ll do that this time, though – but with winston you never make a prediction. He certainly livens things up, though.
         
        I still reckon people who want a left wing government should vote Alliance – if we make it to Act levels that really will scare labour left, and it probably won’t even affect the outcome of the election.

        • Lanthanide 14.1.1.1

          I don’t think Winston can reasonably go with National. Key ruled him out, Labour hasn’t. Ergo anyone voting NZF will be expecting him to go with Labour over National. He surely learnt his lesson in 1996.

          He could, however, not enter into a formal agreement with Labour.

          • McFlock 14.1.1.1.1

            But that would mean national keeping an election promise, even with power in the balance 🙂
             
             

      • Jenny 14.1.2

        First he has to deliver some policy.

        • HC 14.1.2.1

          Weel Winston does certainly deliver policies, the sad thing is that hardly any of these get publicity, because the media is not putting much attention on politicians and parties outside of Parliament. Perhaps look up the website of NZ First, there will be some of the information you may ask for. I get the feeling though that you may expect to be served policies on the silver platter to your doorstep. This will hardly happen. Those that make an effort to inform themselves can do so via the internet, by talking to politicians and members of different parties, or by requesting information in writing.

  15. Sanctuary 15

    I am worried about the Green vote. They traditionally poll higher than their turnout. In my view they were far to cocky in their recent assessments of themselves as the main third party, with the implicit assumption that they a God given right to 5%. It seems to me Russel Norman is doing everything he can to alienate his hippy and hard left base and he is essentially gambling he can pick up some of Labour’s vote. If the political expediency of Normanfails, then the the Greens may well be out of the next parliament – a disaster for the centre left.

    • ZeeBop 15.1

      I disagree. Greens already work with National on home insulation. Specifically Greens have just open the door to a confidence and supply agreement only if National radically changes direction. So no, I’m pretty confident they won’t sell out like the Maori party has.

    • Tangled up in blue 15.2

      Or perhaps win a constituency seat?

    • The Green vote is essential for Left-Wing governments under MMP. They have been polling above the required %5 but they need more than that and it does no want to be from Labour. I think the latest drop in their polling is due to the stupid comment that they perhaps would be able to work with National. Enough to make any Greeny shudder with embarrassment.
      The Greens have to be seen working to make sure Labour carries out its policies. This plus their enviromental policies which are the basis of their philosophy.

  16. Zaphod Beeblebrox 16

    Crikey, the pressure is going to be on Bhanatgar in Epsom to play dead. If Banks does not win Epsom Key will be stuffed. Maybe he could limp over the line begging to Tariania (will Sharples get back against Jones??)- but how would you like to be beholden to her?

    Need some Epsom polls- I bet Key and Joyce are doing them.

    PS Goff and Cunliffe have definitely picked up their game. the privitization and now workers rights stuff is going to be a winning strategy.

    • Pascal's bookie 16.1

      …workers rights stuff is going to be a winning strategy.

      Labour has to play it right, and it’s going to get ugly. National have already telegraphed their cards (hobbit haters), labour needs to have some solid shit and they need to get onto it very soon, soon enough that when national start really throwing shit it is reaction to labour’s stuff.

      Personally, I’d go with something like the graphic that has been up here at times comparing Ubionised wage growth to non-unionised, tied to Key’s quote about how his reforms are going to make things more flexible. he also said something about making things easier, ie cheaper, for employers. We’d love to see wages drop.

      Nat’s policy is not just about attacking unions, it’s about seeing wages as a cost to his mates, whereas Labour is about the many not the few.

      • Zaphod Beeblebrox 16.1.1

        Actually, the uglier it gets- the easier it will get for Goff. The more church sermons in South Auckland decrying inequity and the need for the whanau to stick together, the bigger the South Auckland turnout. And thats where NZ elections are won.

        John Howard, Peter Reith, Abbot and their business buddies tried this crap (remember workchoices???) and the ACTU shoved it right back in their faces.
        Of course Roger Kerr, Nicholson and Phil O’Reilly will spin it as a new economic boon, even the sleepy hobbits of NZ should be able to see past that one.

        There is a good reason why ACT polls 1.5% at the moment- their policies are shit and everybody knows it.

        • ChrisH 16.1.1.1

          Bennie bashing in line with the Taskforce is starting to kick in in earnest already, not waiting till after the election, with beneficiary numbers down in part because people are being kicked off the Unemployment Benefit with no means of support by means of Kafkaesque tests, including not being informed in writing of frequent pointless meetings and then “sanctioned” for not turning up. Expect some hard luck stories and/or unemployed workers activism towards the end of winter and down to the election, which on balance will stuff up National’s bennie bashing campaign strategy. They’re idiots.

  17. ak 17

    Goodonya Roy. It’s a hard road finding the perfect poll, but this one’s got the Blue colon twitching.

    Down despite media saturation Grease Funkey and the release of both big guns: Orewa One (ii) with the original cast, and the classic Bennie-Bash.

    Asset Sales the surprise box-office smash.

    Not a lot left ‘sides a tired grin and a mincey wave.

    A double-dip a-comin’ and that rubber wool cup half empty already.

    On track, Red. Ignore the spinners and keep poking out those family silver leaflets.

    • Lanthanide 17.1

      “Asset Sales the surprise box-office smash.”

      I think people are more directly pissed off about Kiwisaver, to be honest. At the moment anyway.

      Morning Report asked people what they thought about Kiwisaver changes, and most didn’t like it. One rural guy who said he has always voted National, as has his family, said he will not be voting for them at this election specifically because of their kiwisaver changes, he was Very Angry about it.

  18. Rodel 18

    Before the last election a friend asked Helen Clark, who should he vote for in his Epsom Electorate? She replied, “the Labour candidate of course.”.. A natural response I suppose.

    Because Epsom people voted strategically, Rodney Hide got into parliament, bringing a number of his ACT members with him even though ACT’s 3.65% of the total party vote was less than NZ First’s 4.07%. (That doesn’t seem democratic to me and I hope that gets changed after the 2011 referendum.)

    As a result in 2008, Epsom voters got two Tories for the price of one. Consequently we have a NACT government.

    I guess the same thing will happen again in 2011, but with John Banks as the successful candidate and again dragging a group of ACT extremists with him including…God forbid….. Don Brash.

    We try to encourage people to vote strategically within the MMP context. e.g. Telling non national farm workers in National safe electorates, (Some of them have mistakenly believed that there’s no point in voting)-that there is a point and their ‘party vote’ is important.

    Let’s face it …Labour cannot win in Epsom….. so should we encourage Labour supporters in Epsom to vote strategically for the national candidate to prevent John Banks winning, and denying the group of ACT list members getting in to parliament.. thereby increasing the chance of having a Labour government.

    I don’t really like this idea..My principles say, vote for what you believe in… but strategically is this going to produce the outcome we want? In 2008 National voters used the MMP system to their advantage. Shouldn’t Labour supporters also use the MMP system in the same way?
    I’d appreciate comments.Have I missed something?

    • Jim Nald 18.1

      As an ex-Epsom resident, I don’t disagree.

      The messaging has to be clear and I spent some time clarifying for my Epsom/Remuera neighbours in the 1990s: if you (Epsom voter) would like to see a left-leaning Govt and your votes effect that, then

      1. Party vote: always Labour/Greens

      2. Epsom candidate vote: National (never ACT)

      • Rodel 18.1.1

        Jim Nald..Thanks
        I think it could have a huge effect on the election outcome.

        • Jim Nald 18.1.1.1

          Oops .. the years have escaped me too quickly.

          That should be the 2000s.

          Just very quickly from memory and without googling to look up and double check – ACT ran only for the party vote in (?) 2002.

          And then, as I heard and understood, many folks (eg in Epsom) suggested Rodney Hide run for the Epsom seat as well to have the security of a seat that would also help translate some of the party votes for ACT into more ACT MPs in (?) 2005.

          • Colonial Viper 18.1.1.1.1

            I’m an ex Epsom resident too and I can’t remember you talking to me 😛

    • You certainly have missed the point Rodel .There is no difference between Act and National . a vote for either is a vote for Tory policies. What would be better is for Labour and the Greens to come to some understanding and amalgamate the Left vote . I doubt if it would make any difference to the wealthy Epsom electores but it would be worth trying.

      • Rodel 18.2.1

        I disagree. Perhaps you haven’t understood the point I was making…. A vote for ACT & a party vote for National in Epsom brings us a number of right wing politicians. (about 6 I think). Voting solely for National much as it hurts would bring just one or two right wing politicians ..no ACT members in Epsom and perhaps no ACT members at all…. and maybe a Labour majority.

        • Colonial Viper 18.2.1.1

          The Tories are pretty smart about this kind of tactical voting.

          Without an electorate MP in Epsom, ACT collapses to 0 MPs. National will be desperate to give Epsom to ACT on a plate.

  19. Searching 19

    The more Hillary Calvert appears on Backbencher / Tv / etc the less votes Act will get.

    A reject from way back.

    • Jim Nald 19.1

      To be prepared in case she comes round knocking on my door, I should get a rabies vaccine shot.

  20. When National start to poll consistently in the mid 40s (44, 45, 46) then Key will have to react and his mettle will be tested. Till then, National (and Key) can just talk about how the polls ‘bounce around a bit’.

    Polls don’t measure ‘support’. What they do is dip a piece of litmus into the mix of politics-related discourses flowing around the country. Those discourses may well be changing. No matter – if they aren’t, they will. They always do as an election nears.

    Sadly for National, there’s only one direction the discourse about them can change – by becoming more about wariness, caution, raised eyebrows, scepticism and even fundamental criticism. Sooner or later, Key will need to have a response to that change. He needs to discover a subtly transformed image. That could be hard, given the well-established nature of his current image.

    One angle he could amplify is the one where he says ‘Well those are the mandates we’re seeking. If you don’t like what we are suggesting, vote for Phil Goff and Labour.’ That way, he turns attention onto the question of whether Labour ‘deserves’ your vote rather than whether or not National ‘deserves’ your vote. It also reminds people that Labour aren’t the ones they’ve been supporting so far. It also makes Key seem straightforward and, implicitly, calmly confident. Confident enough to say you don’t have to vote for me.

    [‘Nice Man Mr Guy’?]

  21. Sookie 21

    Finally, some good news, though the Greens percentage is a disappointment. Down in Dunedin, people are very, very pissed about Hillside workshops losing 40 jobs all because of that disgusting decision to send 500mill of work to China. Even my workmates who normally don’t give a toss for politics. This is traditionally a Labour town, but there’s a few swing voters kicking about who won’t be voting for the Nat Twats again.

    • M 21.1

      Sookie, saw that news item and the chap interviewed put it most succinctly when he said that the jobs of manufacturing new trains were helping someone else’s economy – a montage of such comments for a youtube clip would be brilliant.

    • ChrisH 21.2

      It’s a valid question to ask, to what extent are National actually being manipulated or “duchessed” by overseas interests anxious to sell stuff here, and offering vague promises that we can sell stuff over there if we ease the path here first. This question has already come up in the context of the Auckland Trains debacle whereby late Chinese bids upset those already in the process, and the confused private trade diplomacy of the Wongs, which seems to have had some connection to the issue. Clare Curran knows all about that, see here: http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA1104/S00299/key-should-defer-auckland-rail-decision-wong-investigation.htm . If Kiwirail held back on the carriages deal for any similar reason, it would of course be highly improper; no real evidence as yet perhaps, but there is a lingering suspicion in the air. The Govt renders itself open to the asking of such questions by the curious way that it and its bureaucracies have been behaving lately with regard to procurement and the letting of contracts, not just with regard to trains, see here: http://blog.labour.org.nz/index.php/2011/06/09/more-murky-backroom-deals-by-national/ . If the opposition starts raising the matter of procurement irregularities more generally, it’s possible that something might come out of the woodwork, you never know.

  22. LynS 22

    Yee Haa!

  23. Draco T Bastard 23

    This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone with a NZ wide cross-section of 942 electors from May 16-29, 2011.

    So, one week before and one week after the budget and before the Greens said that they could work with NAct. Next ones going to be really interesting.

  24. Carol 24

    For the people who asked if the MSM is giving this poll any coverage:
    http://www.3news.co.nz/Labour-up-8-percent-in-latest-poll/tabid/419/articleID/214519/Default.aspx

    Labour has closed the gap on National in a new public opinion poll published today, but not enough to prevent John Key forming a new government if an election was held today.

    The Roy Morgan poll puts National on 49 percent, down 4 percent on their last poll, and Labour on 36 percent, up 8 percent.

    The only other party breaking the 5 percent MMP threshold to win seats in Parliament is the Greens on 6.5 percent.

    But the article ends with a curious parting shot:
    The polling was done in late May, before police announced there was not enough evidence to prosecute Labour’s Darren Hughes.

    And no mention of the timing of the poll in relation to the budget.
    And ZB goes with the headline:
    http://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/newsdetail1.asp?storyid=198385
    Gap tightens but National still well ahead

    • lprent 24.1

      You notice that the newstalk ZB article was inaccurate as well. Labour was up 8% not 4% as they reported.

    • Akldnut 24.2

      Pisses me off that on all the broadcasts I’ve heard the MSM are not highlighting the swing of support from National to Labour but that Nation can still govern if an election were held today.

      Although true, by hightlighting that Nact can still govern they are hiding the changing mood of the NZ.

  25. stever 25

    And the NZ Herald considers “the Maori Party 2.5% (up 0.5%), ACT NZ 1.5% (down 0.5%) and United Future 0.5% (unchanged)[from Roy Morgan report]” to mean “But John Key’s Government remains a clear favourite, with support for the Maori Party, Act and United Future all strong.”!!!!

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10731319

    Keep going NZH—water into wine next???

    • Eddie 25.1

      yeah that line is so stupid. Maori+ACT+UF total 4.5% like they did last poll. That’s “strong?”

    • Pascal's bookie 25.2

      Stever, to be fair, granny is just runnng a newstalk ZB piece.

      It’s a wildly innacurate, shit, piece (“At the same time, Labour was up 4 to 36 per cent”) to be sure, and Granny deserves to be mocked for running it, but it’s Newstalk’s shit piece. They also deserve the mock.

      • stever 25.2.1

        PB: good point, and I am entirely happy to spread the mockery :-). Wouldn’t want to wrongly misattribute stupidity!

  26. Nick K 26

    Looks like they phoned all those Labour voters who have cellphones this time.

    • Pascal's bookie 26.1

      Nope. 🙂

      How about that Brash coup then eh Nick?

      Have you seen the polling Brash was so talkative about re Epsom?

      • PeteG 26.1.1

        Brash has failed to ignite Act support, they’ll presumably try some hard flogging campaigning but might have a bit of a dead horse.

        It offers a glimmer of hope to Labour.

        • Colonial Viper 26.1.1.1

          Brash has failed to ignite Act support

          Brash has not failed to ignite support for others though.

          Rodney! Come back! All is forgiven! 😈

          • Jim Nald 26.1.1.1.1

            Brash ignite support??
            Brash cremates Rodney, incinerates Banks, and self-immolates.
            Talk about killing three cocks with one stone.

            • McFlock 26.1.1.1.1.1

              Talk about killing three cocks with one stone.

              The imagery is . . . surreal but astounding, is all I can say.

          • the pink postman 26.1.1.1.2

            Funny you should mention the “delightfull Rodney” Col V . Have we seen the last off him? I wonder !

    • Gina 26.2

      “Looks like they phoned all those Labour voters who have cellphones this time.”

      Nick
      Is that for real and if so can you please post a link to the info?

      • lprent 26.2.1

        Nope – he doesn’t have any such information. It is just Nick K acting like a idiot fool with a ego size that is in an inverse proportional relationship to his intelligence.

        On the blogs it is the equivalent of the classic male anatomy size delusion (the more stupid someone is the more that they think they are gods gift to women) – which Nick K probably also has in real life.

        We tend to gently ignore such people while they overcome their inherent flaws (unless they get too irritating). In Nick K’s case perhaps age will eventually increase his wisdom.

        • PeteG 26.2.1.1

          I thought it was funny.

          Everyone finds flaws in unfavourable polls that vanish when the numbers go their way.

          • mickysavage 26.2.1.1.1

            What about you PeteG?  When polls support your world view do you cite them and rely on them?

            • PeteG 26.2.1.1.1.1

              I might cite them but balance my comments with a wider view, totally unbiased and objective of course. We all know polls can be indicative but even the best of them have the possibility of statistical blips.

              Except for the triennial poll – I have cited figures from because they are usually quite reliable.

              • I might cite them but balance my comments with a wider view, totally unbiased and objective of course.
                 
                Like when you said “Polls suggest they either don’t blame National much, or are put off more by Labour’s extended clustermuck-ups.”
                 
                It looks like you cite polls when they support your view and say they are unreliable when they do not.
                 
                 
                 
                 

                • PeteG

                  I see you’re spaced out again.

                  Maybe I should have made my point clearer:

                  “I might cite them but balance my comments with a wider view, totally unbiased and objective like everyone else of course.”

                  Anyway, what’s not objective about that? Most people would have thought something similar then, except for the really really faithful – and are there any of them around still? Maybe a few peeking warily from behind the parapets again. Good, it’s not nice to see so much depression.

                  • Good try Pete.  The only problem is that you cited the polls to support your wingnut view of the world previously but today are saying that polls should not be relied upon and try to appear to be “independent” whatever that is.

        • Gina 26.2.1.2

          Iprent
          I think Nick may well be nervous that cellphone polling would put Labour even higher by maybe another 3 %. How do we find out how the growing cellphone only group might vote?

          • lprent 26.2.1.2.1

            Electorates with decent current levels of door canvassing can calculate the differences between the populations with listed land line numbers and those without quite easily.

            Last time I looked at it (2007), a minority of the people under 30 were accessible via listed land lines. In that group those with land line numbers were significantly more likely to be conservative non-left voters. It was as significant as the male / female split in that same age group – which is far more marked than in any other age range.

            Of course that is from just a few electorates. But the slow accumulation of canvassing data like that across the party is the easiest way to get some serious analysis like you’re asking done.

        • North 26.2.1.3

          So I guess you’re saying Nick K is a big cock ???? Or do you mean dickhead ????

  27. Santi 27

    Plummet? Hahahahahahahaha!

    • Colonial Viper 27.1

      I think that’s

      Hahahahahahahaha! Uhh…SPLAT

      Let’s see what Captain panic can pull out of his Pants.

      😈

  28. The Voice of Reason 28

    Not that I think Stuff polls are particularly reliable, but todays one (who would you vote for?) is interesting reading:

    ACT: 199 votes, 6.2%

    Greens: 495 votes, 15.3%

    Labour: 807 votes, 25.0%

    Mana Party: 189 votes, 5.8%

    Maori Party: 108 votes, 3.3%

    National: 1265 votes, 39.2%

    Progressive: 17 votes, 0.5%

    NZ First: 126 votes, 3.9%

    UnitedFuture: 25 votes, 0.8%

    Total 3231 votes

    • PeteG 28.1

      Small parties can more easily rig the votes proportional to their total vote, that may be why the online polls favour small parties. I wouldn’t get too excited by these sort of polls. It may affect Horizon too but they should be more robust than Stuff.

      • The Voice of Reason 28.1.1

        It’s got really interesting now! Prime Minister Harawira leads a two party coalition minority Government with the Greens, with support on Confidence and Supply from Labour.
         

        ACT: 254 votes, 4.0%

        Greens:762 votes, 12.0%

        Labour: 1093 votes, 17.2%

        Mana Party: 2190 votes, 34.5%

        Maori Party: 162 votes, 2.6%

        National: 1655 votes, 26.1%

        Progressive: 19 votes, 0.3%

        NZ First: 174 votes, 2.7%

        UnitedFuture: 36 votes, 0.6%

        Total 6345 votes

  29. I have said for sometime that there is a bigger vote out there for Labour than the polls suggest. ]
    I live in Consrvative Waikato they would sooner vote for the National Front than for Labour ,but recently I have detected move towards Labour.
    I am begining to hear a lot of disatisfaction with the Nats.
    The Nats arrogance is wearing thin with a lot of people . If Labour now starts to get stuck in to these arrogant dicks we are back in business,
    PS.Good article by John Armstrong today Labours powers to be need to take note .

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