New Roy Morgan: National 50.5% vs LAB/GR 38%

Written By: - Date published: 6:45 pm, August 20th, 2015 - 138 comments
Categories: political parties, Politics, polls - Tags:

The Roy Morgan poll for August is now out.

During August support for National jumped 7.5% to 50.5% now well ahead of a potential Labour/Greens alliance 38% (down 7%) according to the latest Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll. Support for the major parties in August has returned to close to the levels of support in June…

If a NZ Election were held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that the National Party would easily be returned to power.

Well, that’s not good news. There’s more:

RM August

Support for the National partners was unchanged with the Maori Party 1.5% (unchanged), Act NZ 0.5% (unchanged) and United Future 0% (unchanged).

Of the three Parliamentary Opposition parties – Labour’s support is now at 27% (down 5%), Greens 11% (down 2%) although support for NZ First increased to 8% (up 1%). Of the parties outside Parliament the Internet-Mana Party alliance is at 0.5% (up 0.5%), the Conservative Party of NZ is 0% (down 1.5%)…

At least United Future and the Conservatives both register exactly as much support as they deserve: 0%. The meltdown of the Conservatives will probably have shunted a few voters towards the blue team, as well.

Stuff.co.nz already has the headline “National jumps to outright majority in latest Roy Morgan poll.”

No doubt many in the Labour caucus will be disappointed their carefully planned and media managed Chinese house buyer ploy and the massive amount of airtime that generated for Labour over several days had no positive effect – and may have even undermined the positive momentum for the Opposition noted in the July Roy Morgan.

The main positive for the Left is that the Government Confidence Rating remains weak at 120. Having said that, a long stream of economic bad news locally and from around the world hasn’t hurt the Key Government one bit. My prediction is that if we have a global market meltdown in Sept/Oct, National’s “safe hands” meme will be the one that gets pushed hard through the MSM.

Maybe it’s time to offer voters something other than carefully scripted, market-led, growth fixated, neoliberal-lite? A bit of Corbyn, a bit of angry, and a bit of cut the crap mongrel might make people sit up and take notice.

138 comments on “New Roy Morgan: National 50.5% vs LAB/GR 38%”

  1. KK 1

    When will people learn to stop getting so excited about Roy Morgan polls? There’s no way polls are bouncing up and down 5-8 points every fortnight or so, yet the left go into fits of delirium and panic every time.

    Poll of polls is a pretty consistent low 30s – the rest is just statistical noise and differences in methodology.

    • Colonial Viper 1.1

      RM’s are happening once a month at the moment, and a lot has happened in the political space since the last one came out. The volatility in numbers probably suggests that people might be more willing to change their allegiances right now – but are still sticking with National for the most part.

    • Clemgeopin 1.2

      +1

      • Redbaiter 1.2.1

        Here, in this post on my blog, I make an honest attempt to tell you guys where you are going wrong.

        I don’t think you’ll see it as that though, but I’m pretty certain I am right.

        Here’s an excerpt-

        “So these are the two simple ideas that are keeping Labour out of the game.

        1) The ridiculous proposition that the Key govt is far right and

        2) the plan to take NZ even further left than it is now.

        Even far left National Party supporters know that 2) above would be a recipe for disaster. “

        You need a fresh approach, and I have told you what that is on here before, but you will not listen. Group think boys, you’re in the destructive grip of group think.

        http://truebluenz.com/2015/08/21/why-the-nz-labour-party-just-doesnt-get-it/

        • Hahaha, the only sense in which Key’s government isn’t far right is in social policy, on which they are largely populist, rather than having any principles.

          Keep trolling redbaiter, it’s probably the most productive use of your time.

          The Labour Party have no plan to take NZ significantly to the left. They are arguably not even a significantly left-wing party any more. If you think Labour’s policies are radical, you have no idea what radical looks like. The only radical policies Labour have ever implemented were rogernomics.

          • Redbaiter 1.2.1.1.1

            Look, you can make as many generalized claims as you want, however the bottom line is the polls are hopeless for the LP.

            They have been for some time and don’t look like changing.

            Until the polls do change its an indication you’re doing it wrong.

            So how long is it going to take before you start doing it right?

        • Monty 1.2.1.2

          I’m heartened by this poll result. I believe there has been a negative impact due the Twyford / Little attacking the Chinese buyers. The whole set up was without solid foundation.

          I’m especially interested in the glee that is expressed by the left blogs at the impending loss of confidence in the economy. Firstly it is sad that you feel the only way for the left to substantially increase their polling is on the back of a fading economy. All I hear from my local MP (Grant Robertson) is criticism and blame for international events.

          The second point is that a fading economy will not necessarily if at all translate into votes for the left. A saw a poll asking who will be the better finance minister. Grant barely registered with single figure support, while from memory Bill English was ranked 90% plus.

          In essence the majority may well continue to support and have faith in National rather than the Labour Greens to steer the NZ economy through another negative cycle.

          • Redbaiter 1.2.1.2.1

            I think your analysis is quite fair, and especially the bit about an economic downturn perhaps not translating into votes for the left.

            However that is in a way what I am saying, in that the left have no criticism of National, and no solutions, that don’t involve going further left.

            The voters will not buy this if they perceive the reasons for the downturn as being the Nat’s leftist tilt. Which is highly likely.

            The irony is there is plenty the Labour Party could attack the Nats on without going left, and this is how they will get traction. Apparently though, they’re just too dogmatic and archaic in their thinking to adopt any such strategy.

            Practically all of the attacks on National come from a further left political perspective, and that is why they are not working.

  2. James 2

    Actually KK – the Roy Morgan (apart from being monthly not every couple of weeks), is pretty consistent , with only the odd blip for labour.

    Normally labour are in the 25 – 27 range.

    A bit of a blip for labour a month ago got everyone all excited – but as I pointed out it takes more than a month to be a trend, and now we are back with National easily winning an election if one was held today.

    • maui 2.1

      You’re sounding like a media political editor now that proposes having snap elections every single month. There is no election being held today, it’s held in 2 years time.

  3. the pigman 3

    Enter Tory trolls:

    BUT THE STANDARD NEVAR REPORTZ POLLZ THAT R BAD FOR DA LUFHT!

    • James 3.1

      No – we agreed this month in our right wing troll meeting to focus on the “its a rouge poll” that you lefties tend to use. Or the landlines excuse. *wink

      And credit has to be given – The Standard DOES report polls that are bad for the left (even ones that were (in the standards words) brutal).

      • the pigman 3.1.1

        “its a rouge poll”

        Well, we lefties do like to unite under the colour red…

        I used to think tories were just uneducated, self-interested shits who couldn’t spell to save themselves… now I realise you lot are far more clever and calculating than I thought.

  4. James 4

    “At least United Future and the Conservatives both register exactly as much support as they deserve: 0%.”

    You should add Mana to that as well. They bounce between zero and 0.5.

    If CV thought Key and his advisors were going to be very nervous after last months Roy Morgan – how does CV feel Mr Little should be feeling after not being to get above 30% yet again?

    • Colonial Viper 4.1

      Serves ’em right for their badly judged Chinese ploy which went no where and ended up with zero new policy announcements as follow up. In the end it boiled down to “please collect more data” which was as non-committal as you could get.

      Seems prospective voters saw it as such.

      • Roflcopter 4.1.1

        Yes, the Chinese ploy backfired spectacularly, and deservedly so.

        “…went no where and ended up with zero new policy announcements as follow up.

        This applies to everything Labour says, and this is why Labour won’t move anywhere beyond the marginal shifts.

        It’s easy to sit there and bang on and on about the Government, but when they don’t articulate an alternative way beyond slogans and shit we’ve heard for the last 7+ years, then don’t expect a different result.

      • mickysavage 4.1.2

        Sorry CV but this is a rogue. If Labour was being punished for Twyford’s stuff then the Greens would benefit. The result suggests an anti left surge. Given current circumstances I am confident it is a rogue. Next poll will bounce back.

        • Colonial Viper 4.1.2.1

          Hi MS, yes you could be right. I’d raise the question however – was it the last RM with LAB/GR 9% higher which was the rogue, or this one? We will probably only know after the next one or two RMs come out.

          • mickysavage 4.1.2.1.1

            Last five monthly polls:

            For National 45.5 54 49.5 43 50.5

            For Labour/Green 41 36 39 45 38

            The next poll will bounce back. The results are far too unstable. The clue is the increase in confidence at a time when many people are starting to panic.

            RM’s model needs some intense work on it.

            • Chooky 4.1.2.1.1.1

              +100

            • b waghorn 4.1.2.1.1.2

              You have to wonder if the sample size is large enough to get reliable data ,the way its jumping around suggests it not.

            • infused 4.1.2.1.1.3

              No ones panicked

            • BM 4.1.2.1.1.4

              Average
              48.5% National
              39.8 Lab/Green

              Last election
              47.04% National
              37% Lab/Green

              Don’t see a lot of change and this is with all these “scandals”.

              Might be time for some fresh blood, chaps.

              • Anno1701

                “Might be time for some chaps fresh blood,.”

                was gonna say something

                but it would just get me banned !

            • Enough is Enough 4.1.2.1.1.5

              No Mickey

              You can live in the denial that you been in for the past 8 years, where the:

              ‘trend is heading in the right direction”; or

              “its a rogue poll”; or

              “left wing voters do not have land lines” or

              “If you add up the left block, add in Winston, cross your fingers and sing koom-bi-ya, then we are .0001% ahead”; or

              “Paddy Gower says nasty bias things about us”, or

              “whatever other bullshit positive spin you can find on another depressingly shit poll for the left”!!!!,

              But I have had enough. Make no mistake. This is bad. Despite all the negative headlines, the scandals, the incompetence of this government, we are at best still behind.

              I am frustrated and angry that so many people on the left including you Greg do not take these polls seriously and dismiss them as rogues.

              These same themes were run this time 3 years ago where everyone dismissed the polls and arrogantly predicted National’s popularity was weak and would collapse.

              This is bad

        • millsy 4.1.2.2

          We have had rogue polls for nearly a decade from the looks of things. You really need to pull your head out of the sand Greg.

          • Clemgeopin 4.1.2.2.1

            Oi, man, what can Greg do about it! What can you do about it? What can the political parties do about it?

        • Monty 4.1.2.3

          Micky – Rogue Poll? I don’t think so. The Nats have been polling circa 50% for nearly ten years. And Labour over the same time frame have barely managed to break the 30% ceiling. The greens are failing to go higher in the polls as well. Ten long years. And Labour have not had a good time since they attacked people with Chinese sounding names.

          The problems within Labour are deep seated. While National may not be perfect, they are viewed by the majority as capable of running the economy. Doom and gloom in diary payouts is not the government fault.

          Have the left considered why the majority of NZers simply do not trust a Labour Green Government? Of course the answer is more complicated that a simple fall in Diary prices, but for all the criticism Labour points at the Nats, I have yet to hear Grant Robertson actually articulate clearly what the Left solution would be. I have seen him post on facebook that we should go and look at this document or that document, but really all I hear is Labour trying to blame National for an international fall in milk prices and sadly Grant has no solution.

        • billmurray 4.1.2.4

          You also once said that D Cunliffe will win the election, can you write us a piece on what it feels like to be physic.

          [You probably think you are being clever. But if you can’t contribute a decent comment, then I suggest you simply don’t bother. CV]

          • Draco T Bastard 4.1.2.4.1

            Have you ever considered that Cunliffe didn’t go far enough? That he was being strangled by the ABCs? And thus that it was the RWNJs in the Labour Party that prevented a Labour win?

            The same thing now seems to be happening again IMO.

      • tauputa 4.1.3

        I have no sympathy on Labour, theyre only new policy is ham fisted dog whistling on chinese people, they got brunt – tuff biscuits, come up with some inspiring policies and leave disvalued minority groups alone

  5. BM 5

    Isn’t National suppose to be crashing and burning?

    What’s going on?

    • Colonial Viper 5.1

      You’re a smart guy, BM, how about adding something to the conversation apart from obvious sarcasm?

      • BM 5.1.1

        OK.

        If the left ever want to win you need a clean out most of the decision makers/ strategists.

        These decision makers seem to be mainly older people who’s approach to succeeding is no longer relevant or successful in the modern world.

        This roadblock is stopping the left moving past the 1980’s and is killing it stone dead.

        The left needs a serious injection of younger blood and fresh thinking.

        • Colonial Viper 5.1.1.1

          And bear in mind, sometimes the “younger blood” which gets recruited, gets recruited because they mimic ‘old (Thorndon Bubble) thinking.’

          • BM 5.1.1.1.1

            I’m not that young but one thing I have noticed is the way society has moved on from the win- lose approach.

            These days, you either work with your competition or co-exist in a civilized way, you don’t demonize it or try to destroy it.

            This is a concept older people don’t get and is the main reason why the left is sinking into oblivion.

            John Key gets it which is why he’s so successful .

            • mickysavage 5.1.1.1.1.1

              He does not try to coexist in a civilised way, he looks for naff media opportunities to present the proposal that he is not a mercenary merchant banker. His PR work is outstanding. But the reality is that he is not interested in coexistence.

              • Chooky

                +100

              • BM

                I think you’re just a bit too old to get it there, MS.
                The black and white approach is no longer the path to success, time to step aside.

                • Hi BM,

                  Have you not seen how John Key operates in Parliament? He is a perfect example of the ‘them and us’ adversarial, petty point-scoring politician.

                  And in his interviews for the public he tries to tone that down but still allows himself a steady stream of snide comments about his political opponents – usually accompanied by a facial sneer.

                  Surely you’ve noticed his behaviour?

                  Yet, contra your theory, he remains popular.

                  I think you – and perhaps quite a few others – mistake his low-key linguistic style (and shoulder shrugging) for some sort of mild-mannered kiwi embrace of ‘coexistence’.

                  It’s actually the opposite.

                  It’s the attempt to present an attitude of total dismissiveness and indifference to points of criticism raised by others.

                  It’s presumably done in order to avoid engaging with those points. In effect it stymies discussion and debate.

                  In that way, it’s a tactic that is also highly disrespectful of his political opponents and critics in general.

                  [Perhaps that approach actually resonates with some ordinary people who, similarly, prefer not to engage in detailed discussion and debate over their political views and attitudes and even get quite irritated when they are required to defend them? I’ve met a lot of people like that. Perhaps they admire a politician who comes across, like them, as uninterested in real, critical discussion of important issues and so legitimises their own approach? Who knows?]

                  • BM

                    Of course he operates like that in parliament, parliament is set up to be as adversarial as possible.

                    Having said that, no one watches it, so what happens in parliament has no impact, personally I have never watched parliament and have no interest in doing so.
                    Dull and archaic bullshit.

                    I’d say John Key finds the whole political process rather annoying and wanky, Key’s a go getter who wants to get stuff done and make a difference and is willing to work with whoever to make that happen.

                    That is why people like the man

                    • Brendon Harre -Left wing Liberal

                      BM I have returned to NZ 3 years ago to Christchurch and I have not found John Key to be ‘go getting’ and Puddlegums description is highly accurate for how he approaches complexities of rebuilding Christchurch. And yet I have heard him in answer to what his legacy will be, state something like economic stability…. and rebuilding Christchurch.

                    • odot

                      “I’d say John Key finds the whole political process rather annoying and wanky…”
                      Yeah that sentence basically sums up how much you know about politics in NZ. John Key has pushed his ‘matey-matey’ persona into the media so that you (the public) find it “easy to relate to him.” Its a great tactic and it has worked incredibly well, but that’s his media hat. When he pops on his political hat, he is exactly the opposite of how you describe: “These days, you either work with your competition or co-exist in a civilized way, you don’t demonize it or try to destroy it.” There is no conversation with the opposition under Key, there is only “us vs them,” and if you don’t think Key is right, then basically you can go f*** yourself.
                      His style of politics is based on divide and conquer; divide the public into those who buy into his media-friendly persona, and ignore, belittle and berate ‘the rest’. The only reason why you can’t see that that is happening is because you have chosen to buy into his persona. the thing you don’t seem to understand is that politicians are politicians: they lie, they coerce and above all else they manipulate. Which is what Key is excellent at doing: manipulating not only the media, but the public in general to trust him, which is the most dangerous thing anyone could ever do with a politician.

                    • I’d say John Key finds the whole political process rather annoying and wanky, Key’s a go getter who wants to get stuff done and make a difference and is willing to work with whoever to make that happen.

                      That is why people like the man

                      In many ways that is the exact point I was trying to make (although we probably differ on what John Key is trying to achieve with his ‘go-getter’ efforts).

                      I think you may be right that many people (not all of course) like John Key just because he doesn’t really want to debate and discuss issues – and disparages the whole process. Such people may well find that appealing.

                      But I find it a betrayal of the democratic system that ordinary people have tried to erect over the past couple of centuries.

                      It amounts to sidelining and ignoring the diversity of opinion and experiences had by ordinary people. It amounts to a form of ‘pragmatism’ that does far more harm than good in the world.

                      If you are keen to solve a problem in the real world by far the most pragmatic approach is to recruit and engage with as many different viewpoints as possible.

                      When you do that and when you then engage in argument, debate and discussion you are, in effect, testing out the veracity and robustness of your own understanding – and, who knows, your view might turn out to be the right one. Or it might not.

                      That’s the power of arguing and debating – a kind of ‘free market’ of ideas in open contest. If, as a politician, you disparage even engaging in that process you’re not only undermining a core principle of democracy you’re also taking a big risk over ‘getting it right’.

                      Just ‘go-getting’ on the basis of your own preferences, priorities and goals might be fine for personal matters but is a recipe for harm and dysfunction in the social and political world.

                      Even in the personal sphere it has its own form of harm – that harm is usually called ignorance.

                      Being determinedly ignorant – i.e., determinedly impervious to debate and discussion – is not a virtue.

                    • Draco T Bastard

                      John Key’s a go getter alright – he’s getting NZ and giving it to his rich mates and turning the rest of into serfs.

                      He doesn’t want to get stuff done at all – he wants to get rich for doing nothing. He has produced nothing of value in his entire life and will produce nothing of value for the rest of it.

                      He is, quite simply, the biggest failure ever.

              • Bob

                He did to win office though Mickey, look at the ‘Anti-Smacking’ legislation, he won his first election as soon as he stood on a podium next to Helen Clark saying he would work with her for a ‘better outcome for all’.

                • And yet, when in office he has never shared a podium with any of his political opponents or critics in order to get a ‘better outcome for all’.

                  Which suggests that (a) Helen Clark is more generous to her opponents than Key is to his, and (b) it was merely a political tactic in the service of his own ambition and, therefore, was not actually done to create a ‘better outcome for all’.

                  • BM

                    Or none of his opponents are willing to work with him.
                    It’s not a one way street and just in case you’re living in some alternative universe it’s National who get to call the shots, not labour/greens.

                    • McFlock

                      Sort of the point – no compromise under national. No desire to work with others.

                    • I can’t recollect the details but I’m sure that on at least one occasion the opposition have said they would work with the government but were rebuffed for ‘being political’ – perhaps others can recall the issue when that occurred.

                      it’s National who get to call the shots” – well, yes, under the New Zealand electoral and governmental system that happens to be how it works at the blunt end.

                      But your argument was that Key was always willing to work with others or at least co-exist with them – and that that was what made him popular.

                      So, presumably, you don’t think that Key himself thinks that “it’s National who get to call the shots“?

                    • The lost sheep

                      I can’t wait until the next Left Wing Government gets elected, and shows us how to ‘work with others’, like the large % of NZ’ers that support Right Wing Policies.

                      In that scenario, You’ll be just as sincere in your call for inclusiveness I presume McFlock?

                    • weka

                      “I can’t wait until the next Left Wing Government gets elected, and shows us how to ‘work with others’, like the large % of NZ’ers that support Right Wing Policies.”

                      What, the 30% of voters that voted National? Shouldn’t be too hard to work with them, assuming they want to.

                      You can look at the GP if you want models of co-operation.

                      I’d expect a left wing govt to re-establish many of the democratic practices and structure that National have been dismantling too.

    • Chooky 5.2

      oh BUMS that is a bad poll….but luckily we don’t believe in polls do we?….as Jim Bolger said “Bugger the Polls!”…they are biased ,,and used as PR….and the next Election is a long way off!…and people still want to believe jonkey nacts’ economic bullshit with the help of the msm

    • Blue Horsehoe 5.3

      Don’t worry peanut as sure as night follows day, they will crash and burn

      Too many skeletons, which is why these people occupy the positions in government that they do

      Broken souls, all of them

      Can’t imagine why people would want to support, paid or voluntarily

      Reflects poorly on those who back these creepy fiddlers

    • millsy 5.4

      The left have been waiting for National to crash and burn for almost 7 years now, It aint happening.

  6. Mike the Savage One 6

    The media is more than half way dealt with, the people have been misled and “brain massaged” for years, and transparency is like much else an empty word, as the OIA process has become farcical, and even Ombudsman, Health and Disability Commissioner and Privacy Commissioner are mostly busy sweeping most complaints under the carpets.

    So it is endless spin, marginalisation of all subjects and groups in society that may cause a “disturbance” or try to “blemish” the glossy picture of the state of affairs.

    Neoliberalism rules, and all else that is needed for the “National ********* Party of New Zealand” to finish the job is a proper “Enabling Act”, just as the masters of the past did so a fair few decades ago:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enabling_Act_of_1933

    The dictatorship is working, all is well, do not worry, you are being “looked after”.

  7. Ad 7

    Fucking depressing.

    • swordfish 7.1

      I’m not going to get too upset about it until I see the next few (TV News and Herald) polls.

      Fact is: the Roy Morgans do bounce around a bit.

      And the three polls of July (One News Colmar Brunton, 3 News Reid Research, Roy Morgan) were consistent in all putting the Opposition Bloc around 51/52%. A significant improvement on previous polls and up a hefty 8 points on the 2014 General Election.
      http://sub-z-p.blogspot.co.nz/2015/08/govt-vs-oppo-opinion-polls-since-2014.html

      I wouldn’t waste my energy on getting “fucking depressed” at this point. ait and see if the next couple of TV polls confirm the current Roy Morgan slump. That’ll be the time to drown your sorrows.

      • Clemgeopin 7.1.1

        Agreed, but still a mystery how it has bounced so much when National, Key and the government have been in such deep nauseating shit in the last few weeks!

        • Colonial Viper 7.1.1.1

          I think the week long focus on Chinese buyers struck a sour note with the electorate. Not because the electorate disagrees with banning foreign ownership – but because of how the issue was raised.

          • Clemgeopin 7.1.1.1.1

            May be, but I doubt it. Was there any pools on THAT question, especially in Auckland you are aware of?

  8. Binders full of women 8

    Tend to agree re yellow peril disaster. Might have appealed to the missing million– who will remain missing, but may mean many Chinese and other Asian voters will leave labour for a long time…. Dawn raids were remembered for decades ( obviously more brutal than surname assumptions though)

    • Chooky 8.1

      well the Greens who accused Labour of “crude racial profiling” should have a big jump in this poll….but I dont see it!…they have gone down…and Winston Peters NZF should have gone down but instead he has gone up!

      …and you are kidding yourself if you thought new Asians voted Labour or Green….generally imo they are not environmentalists , or for egalitarianism and social welfare or the poor….they are after the money honey!…they vote National and Act !

      • Colonial Viper 8.1.1

        …and you are kidding yourself if you thought Asians voted Labour or Green….they vote National and Act

        Quite right, I’ll be hard pressed to find reasons to vote Labour again after they spread this kind of nonsense around.

        • tinfoilhat 8.1.1.1

          😆

        • Chooky 8.1.1.2

          well who will you vote for?….Green?…or Nact?…( I expect it wont be Mana/Int.?…or Winston NZF?)

          …maybe you should start another party?…what would you call it ?

          http://www.smh.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/wall-of-chinese-capital-buying-up-australian-properties-20150628-ghztdf.html

          ( and btw…I havent voted Labour in years . I vote Green and |Mana/Int and NZF…but I may give Labour my vote next time)

          • Colonial Viper 8.1.1.2.1

            I may be Chinese but I definitely don’t vote National or ACT like you suggested!

            • Chooky 8.1.1.2.1.1

              re- “I definitely don’t vote National or ACT like you suggested!”…I didnt say this !.

              (..I didnt say YOU vote National or Act …I know you are a Labour Party member and you wish to be a Labour Party MP.)

              …I asked if you dont vote Labour….who will you vote for?

              …you dont like the fact that Labour has drawn attention to a housing crisis being apparently in part due to the huge foreign buy up of Auckland scarce housing resources and this buy appears to be predominantly by Chinese

              …. along with National and Act (and the Greens) you have accused Labour of being racist and have argued that Labour will suffer in the polls

              …well Labour has gone down in the latest poll…(but the Greens have also gone down and NZF has gone up)…do you feel vindicated?

              ….will you vote National or Act ?..or the Greens?…or will you stick with Labour despite all your criticisms of their racism and your predictions that they will go down in the polls?

              • Clemgeopin

                +1
                Do you know the legend of the Trojan horse? Every time I read her anti Labour statements, I cringe a little. Of course she is entitled to make them though!

                • Chooky

                  +100 Clem..yes a “Trojan horse”…very perceptive!… I can think of a couple of Nact prominent women..one an MP and the other a PR consultant that could go by this appellation that this Trojan horse calls itself quite easily

                  (smirk…see if that gets through)

        • DoublePlusGood 8.1.1.3

          He said ‘new Asians’, i.e. recent migrants. Haven’t you been around a while?

        • Ron 8.1.1.4

          Actually that is not correct. After analysing the rolls on the North Shore over last few weeks I can assure you that Asian Voters do not vote Labour, National or Act or any other party. They just do not bother to vote.
          I would guess that they just think it a waste of time and have other ways in influencing the outcomes they desire.

          Quite right, I’ll be hard pressed to find reasons to vote Labour again after they spread this kind of nonsense around.

      • tinfoilhat 8.1.2

        Prize for bigot of the day goes to Chooky.

      • Clemgeopin 8.1.3

        +1

  9. Ray 9

    I wonder if the reason that Labours lost votes didn’t go to the Greens was the perceived cockup/flip flop they made over the Rugby World Cup licensing hours
    Definitely a vote loser

    • Chooky 9.1

      …agreed politically inept

      • Clemgeopin 9.1.1

        But their reason for that was correct and they made some sensible changes that Seymour agreed to. The MSM of course did not highlight that part of it.
        -1+2=+1

        But you are right that initially they did not EXPLAIN properly their reasons for their premature ‘pooping on the people’s popular pissing party’.

    • Colonial Viper 9.2

      I suspect the World Cup licensing thing would only have impacted a small part of the polling period.

  10. David H 10

    But they could play the smart game and do deals in the support party seats, with say the Greens, and knock people like Dunne out of power.

  11. Mike the Savage One 11

    Again, the impression is, what alternative do Labour, Greens and NZ First offer? More and more younger people disengage, due to lack of interest in political thinking, debate and strategic scheming by politicians.

    It seems most go where the money and fun is, and that are things funded by business, corporate and not so corporate. The neoliberal “revolution” has done away with most public service jobs and enterprises, unions are largely dis-empowered, a recent survey showed staff turnover in the public sector has been about a third in the last year or so. That means people do not choose to stay in public service jobs, as the government has done all to make such jobs unattractive.

    Besides employment, private enterprise subsidises education (see UNITEC in Auckland, working with big IT businesses), subsidises and funds much entertainment events, and sports and what else there is, also dominates the media.

    All this is used to shape thinking, whether people believe this or not. People adjust, some know nothing else, they go where the money is, that funds most, and they make arrangements and live accordingly.

    This means a major power shift in society since the 1980s, and this government is doing all to shift it further, so even casinos are pampered and praised for “funding” a national convention centre, for the “public” good, we are made to believe. Science and research is increasingly done with or by private enterprises.

    Capitalism rules, and the GFC is forgotten.

    Most are urbanised, and do not even relate to dairy farmers up to their eyeballs in debt, working for nothing. They simply dismiss economic concerns created by low dairy prices, even seem to not worry much with housing, as they shrug their shoulders and simply become renters, hoping for a better future, perhaps.

    Labour and Greens may criticise, expose, but the MSM does report little, and most it seems are not interested, not even in bribery of Saudi businessmen, from a country where cutting heads off “criminals” is “normal”.

    What is needed is a MOVEMENT, something aspirational and exciting, but Little does not deliver that, Labour do not even have a clear set of alternative policies (yet). Winston is an aged man, and will hardly excite many younger potential voters. James Shaw is still a Co-leader apprentice, as recent questions and speeches in Parliament show. And all are split in three directions.

    So there is the continuing impression, Nats have the money and power, and that seems hard to beat, and people love “winners”, not “losers”. Stuff to think about, I reckon, when do they get it?

    • Colonial Viper 11.1

      All important points.

      Even the kinds of subdivisions that property developers favour these days leave no community space for socialising and mixing to get to know your neighbours. Homogenous neighbourhoods which breed self centred ‘keeping up with the Joneses’ types.

      • Mike the Savage One 11.1.1

        I have been following the so called Proposed Auckland Unitary Plan hearings here in Auckland, and I know some people (also a friend) who are involved, due to submissions they made.

        What is being planned is worrying, well it is not finalised yet, but there are changes made, that will basically allow no requirement to develop a proper dwelling mix, as was notified in late 2013. Developers will be able to simply build apartment blocks that consist of little else than 30 sqm “studio flats”, with only 2 cubic metres storage, if they have no garage. And there will be little or no communal space, you got it, also are large parks in Auckland now under review, for housing development.

        That is just one aspect to consider. There are other things being considered now, as developers push the agenda, it seems. They get mostly what they want, and they want to maximise profits, as we know.

        I notice damned little input by residents, certainly very little by “progressive” participants or submitters, and so it is moving on, and few out in the public know what is about to come. Some intensification is necessary, but the way it may happen could turn out to be disastrous, and as we have seen with faulty building practices in the Christchurch rebuild, already detected, we are in for another major disaster, like the leaky homes crisis.

        Too many are asleep, have disengaged, and we are in many ways heading towards the cliff, off which we may drop. John Key will have retired on his Hawaiian home by then, and watch it all with a grin on his senile face, from his large screen TV set, in between rounds of golf in the sun.

        So the opposition needs to deliver something robust, an exciting alternative plan, and really shake things up, not just play that tit for tat game during question time and in front of media all the time.

        • Brendon Harre -Left wing Liberal 11.1.1.1

          Mike did you see my article on the Christchurch CBD Fletchers/Crown $1 billion housing development?
          View at Medium.com

          • Mike the Savage One 11.1.1.1.1

            That is interesting stuff you present there, indeed!

            I am not surprised. New Zealand is in my eyes, given experiences and what I learned over recent years, one of the MOST CORRUPT developed countries, it simply gets away with claiming the opposite, by having “bought” commentators that contribute to “Transparency International NZ”, to make it appear all is well and so “clean”.

            Fletcher Residential hold a near monopoly in the building and construction sector here, and they know how to use it. I have witnessed how they have presented their position and interests in certain environments I cannot disclose. They know what they are doing, they have expert developers and legal representatives, same as some other developers in Auckland. Council and central government depend on contract partners that are available, and same as in grocery retail and some other business, there are monopolists and oligopoly players in this small market, who can almost dictate the terms they want.

            I had a manager from one of the two oligopolist supermarkets in this country recently tell me how they do all to get the “best price” for imported beers from Europe. When I pointed out that the same products they sell here cost about a quarter in retail in Europe, he tried to explain this away with diverse explanations.

            We have the same shit happen with The Warehouse, buying cheap crap from China and other places, produced at a minimum amount of costs, and they charge prices here, that are just a little below of what other retailers charge, for label clothing.

            New Zealand is one of the practically most corrupt developed countries there are, and it is run by a commercial elite that get away with anything. The National Party has close ties with the key persons in charge of most business, so they will look after their mates.

            Nobody I talk to, living overseas, can comprehend how homes in Auckland, being rotten and mouldy and falling to pieces, sell for a million dollars or more a piece.

            It is all the result of a practically corrupt society and commercial sector collaborating with those in government, that is what I say, and I look forward to be taken to court for defamation, it will all be exposed that I know of, which may put a few behind bars.

        • Dave_1924 11.1.1.2

          Slightly off topic but following on from your comments….

          And who champions the Unitary plan and intensification which favours developers? And who funded his campaign via a blind trust? I wonder

          Its past time for real transparency on political campaign funding at all levels with new legislation requiring divulging of donors not only in the future but for the preceding 15 years from the time of the legislation being enacted. And these donations would be dollars given but also services provided in kind…

          Then we would have a good view of some of our representatives, on all sides of the spectrum, real masters and their real drivers in pushing certain policies….

          Oh and a cap on donations from a legal entity of $2000 [individual, trust, company etc etc].

          Lets level the playing and make politics about broad movements ..

          • Mike the Savage One 11.1.1.2.1

            Sorry, your comment does not make any sense. The NOTIFIED Unitary Plan for Auckland was perhaps released with Len Brown’s authority and agreement, and while it also had issues, what we face now is much, much worse. What we get now has no or little input by Len the Man, it is all about the developer lobby running the show.

            And those are the ones who love National and ACT, as far as I can establish it, and with your criticism you have a point, I agree, we need more transparency. But the first hint in your comment is not quite fair, as what Mr Brown did deserves more scrutiny, but re the PAUP, it is limited what he bears as responsibility, particularly re what goes on now, during IHP hearings.

    • Mike Bond 11.2

      A truer comment could not be found. You have nailed it. Labour need a new leader and new direction. The old whinging and whining is not working. It has not worked for more than 8 years. Time for them to do something new to attract voters. No change will see National and Key breeze in at the next election again.

      • Colonial Viper 11.2.1

        A new leader for Labour? Fourth in five years? Grant’s turn now?

        Nah, Little gets his shot at 2017. After that…we’ll see.

        • Clemgeopin 11.2.1.1

          +1

          In spite of all the BS and lies about Labour from the RW and disgracefully from some dubious Political dirty politics types of so called ‘journalists’ and unthinkingly reproduced sadly by some left MB commentators that naively fall for the same old dirty tricks!

  12. ankerawshark 12

    Hmm…………….this poll is hard to make sense of though……..

    Labour has been in the spotlight for the Chinese buyers issues.But also the great job
    Kelvin Davies did on Serco. They have had no obvious cock ups either.

    In polls many expressed concern about overseas buyers buying up housing….And National have had many things go against them, including the economy (not to mention sheep gate, Solid Energy, etc, etc)…………So it is hard to fathom this bounce back………..

    What I have always maintained though is while the airwaves are controlled by the likes of Gower, Garner, Plunkett , Henry and Hoskings we don’t stand a chance. New Zealanders are just accepting the spin.

    • gsays 12.1

      hi anker,
      i agree that the poll is hard to make sense of.

      yes, the tories rule the airwaves.

      however i think things are far more serious.

      long story short- people dont care, they dont care about poor people, poor peoples children, prisoners, beneficiaries, old people, corruption in parliament, ballooning debt…

      it is all about me and mine.

      while i dont blame the tories for this, they are more than happy to benefit from it.

    • Chooky 12.2

      …and I dont think we can trust the polls…like the msm…they are a PR agent and easily bought…biased, selective, manipulated, manipulative, subject to clever framing, self fulfilling prophecies

      you trust polls at your peril…polls are best ignored imo….

    • Clemgeopin 12.3

      Not Plunkett. I listen to him sometimes. He is generally a much more decent, more intelligent and more balanced talk back host than the other 4 you named who seem to be complete RW shits most of the time. I won’t be surprised if Key keeps them quite happy and contented with plenty of bottles of expensive wine from his private cellars!

      • Chooky 12.3.1

        Plunkett must have changed…he was very bad before the last Election

        • Clemgeopin 12.3.1.1

          He is Rw but seems more reasonable, I think! But as I said, I don’t listen to him much, only occasionally while driving.

  13. Brian 13

    A sad indictment on NZ

  14. Olwyn 14

    The polls interest me far less than seeing real resistance to the current status quo. I put this quote up yesterday on open mike, from an article by Monbiot on Corbyn, and will repeat it here:

    “Rebuilding a political movement means espousing what is desirable, then finding ways to make it feasible. The hopeless realists propose the opposite. They assemble a threadbare list of policies they consider feasible, then seek to persuade us that this package is desirable.”

    Labour please take note. Commitment to decency and social and economic inclusion is not a hard left position – not so long ago the left-right argument revolved around how they were best achieved. If the market demands homeless pregnant women, workers risking their lives and suburbs getting ethnically cleansed, then the market must be defied.

    • Colonial Viper 14.1

      I suspect Labour’s approach will be to try and create new, better markets. Like the ETS or giving money to private providers for ECE.

  15. Clemgeopin 15

    It would be foolish for Labour to change policies/strategies/ tactics each month depending on the RM poll or any poll. Wait for a series of tens of polls, and study the focus groups and internal polls if any to know the trends and what the people are looking for.

    Rushing to the left like Corbyn or right like NATIONAL/ACT would be a major error UNLESS you want to see Labour supported 100% by 20% or less of the voters. The WORLD has changed. The economy has changed. The needs and aspirations of people have changed. The material prowess and needs of the MAJORITY have changed. The MAJORITY of people are NOT poor. Most of the people ARE self centred, care for Numero Uno and their back pockets but also some fairness in society. FACT!

    Labour must stay Left, left of centre and MOSTLY centre in their policies and programmes. That is the ONLY way to be in a position to FORM a government and try and make prudent changes. Learn from Clark and Cullen as a recent example, unless you wish to happily dream an impossible dream happening in some distant Shangri-La in some distant time, if at all. [But remember, in the end, of we wait for too long, we will all be dead!]

    Use your heart and head, not just the heart!

    Take a look at this graph carefully, especially the ‘I’m in between’ bar. You will need a gun trotting revolutionary or a charismatic Christ to try and change that graph. No?

    http://d3nd7i493f0o21.cloudfront.net/assets/resized/img/speaker/chart-0-500-0-351.png

    From the article on this website:
    http://publicaddress.net/speaker/in-defence-of-the-centre/

    • gsays 15.1

      hi clem,
      lots of food for thought in your post, the article and the the replies.

      perhaps one plank in the stategy is to remind people of what the left (labour) has achieved in the past, and indeed what the public take for granted eg free tertiary education, free world class health care, 40 hour week and other work place legislation.
      then to get folk to think what does the future hold, under the right, for their children and grandchildren. kinda what the greens seemed to be getting at last election.

      i will be mulling this over while on the wood splitter today.
      have a good day.

      • Chooky 15.1.1

        +100 Clemgeopin and gsays…re-“perhaps one plank in the strategy is to remind people of what the left (labour) has achieved in the past, and indeed what the public take for granted eg free tertiary education…” ( actually tertiary education is no longer free and hasnt been for some time…and world class health care..but agree it is important to remember that it was once free under Labour…as it still is in Europe)

        imo…free tertiary education is a must…and wiping off student debt….this would bring back the New Zealand youth to vote Labour…and New Zealand…at the moment we are driving them away

        Good idea for Labour to remind people about Labour’s roots and the good things it has done in the past for New Zealanders…It needs to make its platforms simple and bold and resonant of the good old New Zealand and bold reformist social welfare Labour before Rogernomics

        The jonkey Nact government is all for making money for the few …(.and not necessarily New Zealanders) …and rorting the rest of us New Zealanders of our heritage and rights

        Young New Zealanders and the RSA want to keep the flag as is…this is an indication of the values they see in the traditional caring egalitarian New Zealand

    • Colonial Viper 15.2

      Rushing to the left like Corbyn or right like NATIONAL/ACT would be a major error UNLESS you want to see Labour supported 100% by 20% or less of the voters. The WORLD has changed. The economy has changed. The needs and aspirations of people have changed. The material prowess and needs of the MAJORITY have changed. The MAJORITY of people are NOT poor…

      Labour must stay Left, left of centre and MOSTLY centre in their policies and programmes. That is the ONLY way to be in a position to FORM a government and try and make prudent changes. Learn from Clark and Cullen as a recent example, unless you wish to happily dream an impossible dream happening in some distant Shangri-La in some distant time…

      Use your heart and head, not just the heart!

      You sound like UK Tory Labour saying a vote for the lefty Corbyn will condemn Labour to a generation out of power.

      BTW the majority of Kiwis ARE POOR. The majority of Kiwis would be deep in the shit if they lost their main source of income for a month or two. Maybe not a majority of the ones you hang out with though.

      • Nessalt 15.2.1

        what about being economically right of the accepted centre but socially far to the left? thereby being centrist.

        The funny thing that socialists haven’t admitted to themselves is the goal posts of what defines modern society are so far removed from what the die hard leftists imagine them to be. its all very well screaming that society has changed and that it’s a bad thing, but if you don’t recognise what it’s changed too you sound very out of date. like corbyn.

      • Clemgeopin 15.2.2

        Hey, look, I would personally vote for Corbyn, Sanders, Gandhi, Mother Teresa and even Christ!

        That was not the point I was trying to make in my comment.
        I am talking about VOTERS, politics, reality and pragmatism.

        What good would it do if 20% to 30% give 100% of support to Corbyn or Labour while 70% to 80% of the COUNTRY don’t?

        If a general poll shows his support to be over 40% plus now or in 2020, just before the elections, sure, he will have a chance. I am a skeptic in that regard. If that were not so, the whole democratic world today would have been different.

        I hope Corbyn succeeds. He will see.

        He will most probably win the Lab leadership, but that is not the ultimate prize, is it?

        • Colonial Viper 15.2.2.1

          What good would it do if 20% to 30% give 100% of support to Corbyn or Labour while 70% to 80% of the COUNTRY don’t?

          You might have a point if centrist free market leaning NZ Labour wasn’t already in that position.

    • Olwyn 15.3

      I think that your comment may be a response to my previous one, which is less about left right and centre than about keeping it real. With regard to “espousing what is desirable, then finding ways to make it feasible” Clark’s government did just that when they bought Auckland’s council houses that John Banks was about to sell – it was “desirable” that Auckland have public housing, and the government found a way of making it “feasible.” The same could be said about Winston Peters and the Gold Card – he thought it “desirable” that older people get a particular kind of support, and rendered it “feasible.” And so on. The problem with “the centre” concept is that it has come to mean giving fictitious support to a fictitious entity while remaining fundamentally a neoliberal pushover. People can see though that. It has not worked for Labour since their 2008 loss and it is unlikely to work for them in the future.

  16. Ben 16

    The economy is heading south, but a lot (most?) of people recognise that it is predominantly due to external forces. They then stand back and ask the question “now who do I trust to steer us through this – Key/English or Little/Robertson?”. The latter option just doesn’t stack up.

    • Chooky 16.1

      @ Ben…Key/English is the problem not the solution….and they are supported by the msm

    • Anne 16.2

      The latter option just doesn’t stack up.

      It doesn’t stack up because the MSM won’t let it stack up. How can the voters know what “Little/Robertson are like and what exactly they stand for when they are always being portrayed in a negative light or ignored altogether. We have seen many instances of it in recent times. On the other hand, govt politicians are rammed down our throats on a daily basis and there’s lots of “happy” stories about the PM’s kids and photos of the PM holding adorable babies and puppies. This, apparently, is what counts with a majority of Kiwi voters.

      • The Gormless Fool formerly known as Oleolebiscuitbarrell 16.2.1

        Labour’s slogan for 2017 “Stupid People: Vote Labour.”

      • Ben 16.2.2

        So it’s the MSM’s fault that Labour has no coherent, consistent policy? Thanks for the clarification – I simply thought that Labour has no coherent, consistent policy.

    • Clemgeopin 16.3

      If you trust Key/English, you are quite naive. But hey, you are not alone!

      These two economic rock stars have burdened your kids and their kids with over $100,000,000,000 of debt and CLIMBING every second!

      Interest alone per Year (5 billion/pa)
      NZ$4,905,851,914

      Interest per Second
      NZ$156

      Debt per Citizen (every man, woman and child)
      NZ$22,336

      Debt as % of GDP
      38.22%

      You could wrap $1 bills around the Earth 259 times with the debt amount!

      If you lay $1 bills on top of each other they would make a pile 7,271 km, or 4,518 miles high! [Lucky there aren’t any $1 bills now !]

      • Hutty 16.3.1

        I agree, Labour should propose a fiscal discipline act where governments must run budget surpluses. That should start lowering the national debt and be a vote winner.

        • Colonial Viper 16.3.1.1

          That’s fucking stupid

          Governments can only run surpluses by taking away savings from businesses and households, and not spending back into social services.

          Add to that the $15B per year corporations send out of NZ, and you have just created a recipe to crash the NZ economy and enforce austerity.

          Like I said, fucking stupid.

          • Clemgeopin 16.3.1.1.1

            The debt burden is not a problem for you? Let us follow the great example of the great USA. Sit down comfortably and take a look at this beauty!
            http://demonocracy.info/infographics/usa/us_debt/us_debt.html
            Cool bananas!

            • Colonial Viper 16.3.1.1.1.1

              The “debt burden” is a framing of right wing neoliberal economics.

              And the US is absolutely fine with adding trillions more to its debt – because it’s all denominated in US dollars and it has no shortage of them because it issues them.

  17. Bill 17

    Maybe it’s time to offer voters something other than carefully scripted, market-led, growth fixated, neoliberal-lite? A bit of Corbyn, a bit of angry, and a bit of cut the crap mongrel might make people sit up and take notice.

    Was just thinking to myself the other day how ridiculous it is that if I want to post something positive from the left of parliamentary politics, that I have to write something from half way around the world.

    The New Zealand parliamentary left is moribund. I’ve absently wondered if that gets reflected here at ‘ts’, where posts on parliament, arguably, tend to be constrained to negative pieces on right wing politics. I mean, when there’s precious little positive or hopeful left wing politics, what are you supposed to do?

  18. Karen 18

    Roy Morgan tends to jump around more that the others so the trend is what matters, and from the trend neither Labour nor the Greens are gaining in spite of extremely poor performance by the government over the last few months.

    There will be many reasons for this. Here are a few:

    1) I think the Chinese name debacle did harm Labour. They looked inept and desperate IMO, and all the great work Phil Twyford had previously been doing in the housing area was cancelled out.
    2) Andrew Little is not coming across as a potential PM in the media. He often seems offhand and he is difficult to hear because of his soft voice. Great in person, but needs to do much better on TV and radio.
    3) Most people are not interested in politics between elections, so they don’t actually follow what is going on and they don’t change alliances easily.
    4) John Campbell is no longer providing an antidote to Hosking.
    5) Metiria Turei seems to have disappeared into the background to allow James Shaw to gain a higher profile. I assume this is temporary, but I think Metiria attracts support from some who aren’t yet convinced by James Shaw

  19. Allyson 19

    Most 18-65 adults work for wages which are rising. This is happening whilst our Trade Union movt is at its least potent and while Labour party seem to be largely missing in action. I’ts silly for Labour to have a Trade Unionist as leader while no one can figure out who or what the Trade Union movement represents.

    • Anne 19.1

      Speak for yourself. 🙂

    • Al 19.2

      If you are having trouble figuring out what Trade Unions do I can only conclude you have led a very sheltered little neoliberal daydream life – maybe do some research.

  20. Al 20

    I find this distressing – especially given all the shit this government is doing (or lack thereof) to ruin the fabric of NZ society. Sadly neoliberalism has resulted in a culture of individualism and greed which is what this National government are all about

  21. TTD 21

    Dissapointing but not unexpected.
    In the UK when each parties policies were blind tested , the policies of the Greens were the most popular. I suspect the same applies here in NZ

    The problem is the media representation of the National Goverment.

    When the lies and corruption get even to much for the MSM to handle, then we might get a bit more balance. Ad the Labour party gets its shit together would also help.
    Until then John is GOD.

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