Nice weather down here…

Written By: - Date published: 10:37 am, May 16th, 2016 - 183 comments
Categories: climate change, energy, Environment, global warming, International, science, sustainability - Tags: ,

April 2016 – the average combined ocean and land surface temperature for this April was 1.29°C above the historical average land and ocean surface temperature for April. And this April was by far the hottest April on a record running back to 1880.

March was the warmest March on record. February was the hottest February on record. The same statement holds for January; for December; November and for every month back through to May of last year. The NOAA website has the figures. At the time of writing, information for April hasn’t yet been added to their pages.

Here’s an animated graphic from the NOAA for atmospheric CO2 measurements from 1979 through to January 2014…then back 800 000 years.

A detail. Notice how the graph goes up to 400ppm atmospheric CO2? Well, 2016 wouldn’t be fitting on that graph. We’re now, or the world is now, existing in a state somewhere above the graph.

The last measuring station on earth to record 400ppm was Cape Grim in Tasmania. It passed 400 ppm last week.

A thought emanating from an observation that Abby Martin made at the end of this presentation (h/t Adam) with regards Bernie Sanders taking the basic message of Occupy to the heart of the US’s recalcitrant mainstream, is it maybe time that people here got together and formed a “global warming” or “climate change” party? This shit we’re causing can’t be ignored. There really is a desperate need to confront the seriousness of our situation, yet no political party is ‘calling it’.

183 comments on “Nice weather down here… ”

  1. Sabine 1

    but but
    people get to be in shorts and t-shirts
    and its a lovely day again

  2. Colonial Viper 2

    This is a very important post.

    Firstly, your comment Bill that we need a Climate Change political party clearly shows that the watered down Green Party ain’t making the grade. If they don’t want to scare the horses, then all the horses are heading to the knackers yard.

    Secondly, is anyone here still dreaming that we are going to limit temp increases to just 2 deg C for the next 80 years?

    My guess is that we will hit 2 deg C by 2030 and the sky is the limit from there once the feedback loops kick in.

    • weka 2.1

      If you want the GP to make the grade, start voting for them. Lefties and people of conscience have had decades to get the Greens into a place where they could be much more effective on climate change. AFAIK they’re still the only party working from the base that climate change is the most important issue of all time, but they’re hamstrung by a populace that is still scared (hint, it’s not the Greens that are doing teh scaring).

      (in other words, suck up the cultural fit issue and put your money where your mouth is).

      • adam 2.1.1

        But one of the reasons I don’t vote for the greens, is the watered down politics.

        Yes I know I’m on the more anti-authoritarian and more democracy wing of the left.

        But the point here, no one is calling this, no one except a few here on the standard.

        Funny I would have thought as the champion of the climate deniers was caught trying to buy a crime, people may have made the connection between his normal set of lies and this.

        And before any of you loony climate deniers have a go, the science I get to support global environmental change is from Jesuit scientist. Who are not know to be to rabid left wings, or God forbid – communist.

        So stop with your foolishness, child like petty distractions, and see this as the real problem it is.

      • greywarshark 2.1.2

        Weka – Have the Greens got a Climate Change Minister position and someone appointed to it? It couldn’t be a shadow minister because there isn’t a Ministry that looks after this in the appropriate manner. They would have to call it the Enlightened Climate Change Minister. Is there someone who has this role in the Greens now?

        [The post was no way intended to be a post about the Green Party. Bar the comments made to date, any other comments that don’t link back to the post; comments that are wholly opinions about the Green Party – they’ll be shifted to Open Mike] – Bill

        • weka 2.1.2.1

          Fair call Bill, and apologies.

        • Xanthe 2.1.2.2

          Oops sorry !
          my post went live before this moderation
          apologies

        • greywarshark 2.1.2.3

          Okay Bill but it didn’t seem obvious that anything about environmental parties couldn’t be mentioned. I’ll stay away for fear of offending.

      • Xanthe 2.1.3

        The greens have brought about their own demise, the population are right to avoid them. Their internal factionalisation and use of polarisation and division as a campaign tool has made them unelectable. They have brought green politics into disrupute. A sad tragedy. It is not through a lack of trying by good people. rather that their processes encourage and promote bullying.

        [The post was no way intended to be a post about the Green Party. Bar the comments made to date, any other comments that don’t link back to the post; comments that are wholly opinions about the Green Party – they’ll be shifted to Open Mike] – Bill

    • b waghorn 2.2

      “My guess is that we will hit 2 deg C by 2030 and the sky is the limit from there once the feedback loops kick in.”
      Unless the last years has been a blip I would say it will be quicker

      https://www.niwa.co.nz/education-and-training/schools/resources/climate/groundfrost

      Still no frosts in Taumarunui and I’m told none in Reporoa, if you look at the stats for Rotorua and Taupo you will see that’s amazing.
      On a shallow basis though the grass growth I’m experiencing is unbelievable.

      • Sabine 2.2.1

        found some more strawberries to pick.

        rejoice we can now have strawberries in May, just like in Europe.

        And i agree with you, the two degrees will come earlier.

        And hence why this loot n bust government here and elsewhere are acting the way they do. It is ‘harvest’ time for them, cause there is nothing good coming up in the future. So those who can accumulate wealth, land, water, etc etc will. And the rest of us can get fucked.

        • b waghorn 2.2.1.1

          Tomatoes are still flowering and the pumpkin started flowering the other day , my gut tells me the governments know how bad it is but are actively soothing the masses to delay panic!

          About three weeks ago I heard our minister for climate change rabbiting on about seeing the new data and in her words “was pretty scary really”
          I’ve searched a few times to find it to link to here but can’t, did any one else here it?

          • Colonial Viper 2.2.1.1.1

            Yes I am still getting tomatoes out back it is scary.

            And my roses are still coming up with new buds.

            Very scary.

            Unless the last years has been a blip I would say it will be quicker

            Am trying not to think about that, mate.

            • Sabine 2.2.1.1.1.1

              you should.

              cause last year …. t’was only a few month ago…..we discussed the raise of 2 degrees, and we are at an increase of what 1.29 degrees already?

              The two degrees are only a few month away, before the end of this decade.

              but hey, tax cuts n shit.

        • Draco T Bastard 2.2.1.2

          And hence why this loot n bust government here and elsewhere are acting the way they do. It is ‘harvest’ time for them, cause there is nothing good coming up in the future. So those who can accumulate wealth, land, water, etc etc will. And the rest of us can get fucked.

          QFT

          They know that it’s going to turn to custard so National are just making it so that the rich can grab it all and when the time comes they’ll cut everybody else except those that will kowtow to them off.

        • left for dead 2.2.1.3

          Too true Sabine…..

    • Gabby 2.3

      Which party will come up with a coping plan that doesn’t make the majority of voters worse off materially?

    • Jenny 2.4

      ….is it maybe time that people here got together and formed a “global warming” or “climate change” party?
      Bill

      Long time Kawakawa policeman, and now climate change activist, Rob Painting stands for the climate party in Northland by-election.

      http://www.climate.org.nz/climate-party-contests-the-northland-by-election/#more-125

      Rob Painting is a contributer to Hot Topic and is a co-author of an international paper on climate change once cited by President Obama, as a suitable reference material on the subject for US high schools.

      • Bill 2.4.1

        Nice! Reckon they should be given as much oxygen as possible 🙂

        Oh. It’s all historical 🙁

        • Jenny 2.4.1.1

          “Oh. It’s all historical 🙁” Bill

          No need for the sad face Bill. The Climate Party’s work is ongoing

          Local body elections are coming up.

          I know that the Climate Party are looking to make at least one local ward coal free.

          The Climate Party also are looking for a candidate to stand in the Mt. Roskill by-election.

          The purpose, is not to seek political office. But to ensure that the establishment politicians can no longer keep actively ignoring the issue.

          Not one establishment party has ever openly sought office by campaigning to combat climate change. This lack has prevented any political party in central government or local body government from having any real mandate in office to seriously address the problem.

          The Climate Party does not seek to replace the establishment parties, the Climate Party wants to challenge the mainstream political parties to discuss this issue on the hustings.

          If establishment politicians continue to actively ignore the issue of climate change, the Climate Party is determined to grow until their voice can not be drowned out and the issue of climate change can longer be ignored.

          After all, climate change is the Elephant in the room looming over us all.

  3. weka 3

    “is it maybe time that people here got together and formed a “global warming” or “climate change” party?”

    I reckon a people’s movement that leads the way and puts pressure on political parties would be the go. (political party formation seems such a massive enterprise if we’re talking about trying to get MPs into parliament. It’s also not fast, takes years).

    • Bill 3.1

      It was a loose thought. Parliamentary seats wouldn’t be the object – I mean if 5% was passed, then great. But I was seeing it more in terms of shifting the narrative much as Sanders has done. In an election year, a political party potentiallygets far more oxygen than a protest or series of protests. It also lends legitimacy to a message if it’s attached to some expression of parliamentary politics/processes….especially where an antagonistic mainstream looks to deflect and otherwise shut down the message in question.

      • weka 3.1.1

        I think to do it similar to what Sanders is doing in terms of shifting the narrative you need a Sanders (which we don’t have). Setting up a political party takes a lot of work. If Standardistas wanted to do that, I’d definitely support it (but tend to think that… not going to say, because it will derail the convo again).

        I think there is something in between a political party and a series of protests. I agree about the potential in election year.

      • Colonial Viper 3.1.2

        A new political party may be just the ticket, Bill.

    • Pat 3.2

      “is it maybe time that people here got together and formed a “global warming” or “climate change” party?”

      Isn’t that the Greens?…….or at least in theory.

      • Jenny 3.2.1

        “I reckon a people’s movement that leads the way and puts pressure on political parties would be the go. (political party formation seems such a massive enterprise if we’re talking about trying to get MPs into parliament.” Weka

        “It was a loose thought. Parliamentary seats wouldn’t be the object – I mean if 5% was passed, then great. But I was seeing it more in terms of shifting the narrative much as Sanders has done.” Bill

        “A new political party may be just the ticket, Bill.” Colonial Viper

        If you guys were serious, you would contact the climate party and offer yourselves as candidates.

        (Just saying)

  4. Richardrawshark 4

    I won’t ever vote GP sorry, I do not think they are right for looking after the country.

    Individually I agree with their policies for the most part, but they are just tooo connected to their activist side, I think they would cause a hell of a lot of initial kaos if elected. Happy for them to partner with a party that might put some reins on their more out there idea’s.

    I would need to see more control of how they would implement their environmental changes and know it wasn’t going to be phased in.

    To cast next years votes I need

    Housing solutions
    Immigration numbers and intent
    Debt intent
    Wage parity solutions

    think they are my main issues.

    and of course now making the multi’s and rich pay their way by joining international effort to stop tax evasion of any means used.

    and that without letting anyone know they will, they will sort the state of NZ’s media out. Perhaps a forced decoupling for all media businesses. 🙂

    [The post was no way intended to be a post about the Green Party. Bar the comments made to date, any other comments that don’t link back to the post; comments that are wholly opinions about the Green Party – they’ll be shifted to Open Mike] – Bill

    • Rosemary McDonald 4.1

      ..”I agree with their policies for the most part, but they are just tooo connected to their activist side, I think they would cause a hell of a lot of initial kaos if elected.

      That’s (IMHO) exactly what is needed.

      Ever heard the expression…”You can’t make an omelette without breaking eggs?”

    • Jenny 4.2

      “To cast next years votes I need

      Housing solutions
      Immigration numbers and intent
      Debt intent
      Wage parity solutions

      think they are my main issues.”

      Richardrawshark

      And herein lies the problem.

      As I have mentioned before, I have talked to Labour Party MPs and told them that climate change needs to an election issue in 2017.

      After all it is the government’s weakest performing portfolio*, where they could take some real hits.

      These politicians have just as adamantly told me that climate change will not be an election issue. That the 2017 election will be fought over the economy.

      And so it goes on, as we stumble into the darkness of an unknowable dystopian future, blighted by irreversible and life threatening extinction level climate change.

      *(possibly with the exception of housing)

  5. Glenn 8

    A disturbing article on seemorerocks http://robinwestenra.blogspot.co.nz/

    ” A few weeks ago an email from a podcast listener arrived in my in box. It read as follows:
    Deb,
    I’ve recently discovered you and your work. Your work is amazing, however it’s filled with too much hope in today’s world (Hopium). We are already in the 6th mass extinction with tipping points long passed. There is NO saving the ocean, saving endangered species, saving the forests, saving humans. It’s too late. THIS is the message that needs to be shared…how we live and die at the end of human civilization.
    Love, AV

    My initial read through triggered a wave of irritation peppered with self-righteous indignation. How dare anyone tell me that my message is filled with “too much Hopium”.
    When the wave passed however, what remained was a feeling of deep sadness. I realized that the initial irritation emerged from a part of me that didn’t want to be called out on my denial. In my heart and in every cell of my being, I knew that she was right.”…

    • weka 8.1

      People who run that line (it’s too late, we’re all going to die) are doing so from belief not fact. They’re read the same facts as everyone else and have come to their own conclusion. But they still don’t know. It’s also irrational IMO, which makes me doubt their ability to apply critical thinking to the evidence. I just wish they would be more honest that they are arguing from belief.

      I get the sentiment and temptation. But if they are wrong, then their message is incredibly damaging. Think about it. I’m not going to say any more because I don’t want to derail the thread.

      • Colonial Viper 8.1.1

        It’s our job to be realistic weka, not optimistic. More than 80 years to go this century and already 1.29 deg C. Where do you think it will most likely end up by year 2100?

        People who run that line (it’s too late, we’re all going to die)

        We are all going to die. Surely that’s not controversial. Nor the fact that the carrying capacity of the planet for humans, without fossil fuel use, is somewhere around only 1B.

        • weka 8.1.1.1

          CV, you’ve well smart enough to understand that that’s not what I am meaning.

          1. it’s not about optimism vs pessimism. It’s about people claiming opinion as fact and then leading a movement based on that that has the potential to be catastrophic. If the message is that it’s too late, how many people are going to be willing to change.

          2. obviously my statement about dying was in relation to the whole species and how humans will react to the idea that they (or their grandkids) are going to die along with all other humans. No, I don’t believe that is a given, and I am more honest about it (see, it’s an opinion).

          3. whether humans are doomed or not, the rest of life is still worth giving every chance we can.

          “Where do you think it will most likely end up by year 2100?”

          What’s the most pertinent word in that sentence? Likely. Because we don’t know. As long as there is still a chance of change, why not work towards it? It’s all about the strategy (and one’s ethics).

        • xanthe 8.1.1.2

          CV

          “Nor the fact that the carrying capacity of the planet for humans, without fossil fuel use, is somewhere around only 1B.”

          Thats bullshit!

          • Colonial Viper 8.1.1.2.1

            Take away industrial agriculture, the ability to produce fertilisers, and the ability to process and ship food that will not spoil over hundreds or thousands of kilometres.

            And what are you left with?

            • xanthe 8.1.1.2.1.1

              a sustainable healthy food supply !

            • xanthe 8.1.1.2.1.2

              CV
              the island of Cuba was placed in just that situation when the US blockaded and they were prevented from access to both fossle fuels and fertilizer,
              look it up what happened, next you might be surprised!
              people can be quite ingenious when they have to be

            • Bill 8.1.1.2.1.3

              Take away industrial agriculture? Okay. That’s a massive leap forward. Generally speaking it’s as destructive and wasteful as all hell.

              Fertiliser. Chickens, pigs, sheep, cows and humans all shit. In a mixed farm set-up, green manure is just flapping around asking to be cut up and composted.

              Remind me why incredibly wasteful industrial scale production processes, riding off the back of wasteful and inefficient industrial monoculture set ups that in concert demand food be shipped thousands of kilometers is something we want again?

              Take it away and we have small to medium sized mixed farming models (many possible types) that are far more resilient on a number of fronts, much less harmful to the general environment, much less wasteful of the product they produce and a stones throw from the people they feed.

              You want to take some of it and produce something other than raw harvest? What’s the problem?

              You want to take some of it and send it a long way off? Fine. I really don’t want to be without pepper and a clutch of other spices I can currently get quite easily. And if there was a spice trade since whenever, I’m pretty sure that could continue. Same with coffee. Same with Cacao….assuming climate change doesn’t make growing them impossible.

              Not so fussed if “Mama Murray’s Homebake Style Munchies” (may contain traces of food)..or that tinned chicken stuff disappears from the world.

              • Colonial Viper

                Totally cool with all your suggestions, great if you are in Waikouaiti or Waihola, its just that you can’t support a concrete city of 1.4M using that model.

                And a hell of a lot of people are going to have to give up their useless paper pushing keyboard pressing jobs and return to the land.

                • weka

                  They say that half of all the food eaten in Havana was grown in Havana post peak oil. Pop 2m. A big part of how Cuba did so well was because of adoption of food growing in cities. I don’t remember the details but seem to recall rabbit farms in warehouses (not my ideal in terms of animal welfare but still probably miles ahead of profit driven factory farming). Sustainable ag has many techniques for growing food in small spaces including using vertical space.

                  I haven’t been in Auckland for a long time but Dunedin and CHch both have a lot of land within their boundaries and relatively close access to land for food that can’t be grown in cities eg grains.

                  The biggest problem for NZ is that most ag isn’t for producing food to eat, it’s for growing commodities to make money. Land use changes hugely when one is growing food instead of money.

                • Bill

                  Depending on the location and the spacial make-up of the city, then I’d imagine a city of 1.4 million could be done. Maybe not. But it doesn’t strike me as completely impossible – unlike as would be the case in say, New York, Mumbai or Guangzhou…

                  I also don’t think it’s necessarily a choice between “useless paper pushing keyboard pressing jobs” and working the land. There are a million and one potentially useful things – things that contribute to society and general human welfare that can be done in the space opened up by the demise of “useless paper pushing keyboard pressing jobs”. Doctors, dentists, nurses, engineers, researchers, scientists etc….these skills aren’t suddenly ‘not needed’…and maybe, finally, there will exist a proper ‘flexible workforce’ 😉

                  • weka

                    I think it’s also that if you want to grow food without ff you need more human power.

                    • Bill

                      Well, another source of power, whether animal, human or some fuel based solution. And different techniques, some of which might be surprisingly light on the labour front.

                      My point was more to do with the impression I picked CV was creating… that it was all suddenly going to be an existence of sack cloths and knee deep mud.

                    • weka

                      Ah, ok, I didn’t pick that from his comment but it is the fear of some people for sure. At some point it will be the argument of the deniers. We can’t do THAT because life will be nasty, brutish and short. Which was a myth anyway, and it misses the point that we don’t have to abandon everything, including knowledge we have aquired.

                      I think the potential for innovation is huge. And like you say, we can maybe finally get down to organising in ways that serve us all.

                • And a hell of a lot of people are going to have to give up their useless paper pushing keyboard pressing jobs and return to the land.

                  Pol Pot, is that you?

        • Bill 8.1.1.3

          I agree about being realistic rather than optimistic or pessimistic.

          That includes not proclaiming that a one month average land and sea temperature increase above the long term average for that month is the same as saying that we are currently that amount more warm in annual terms. Annual averages tend, as far as I can see, to be measured against the 20th C annual average and not, as the case with these monthly temps, against the entire record (ie – from 1880).

          Obviously, given that the world’s warming, the longer average is going to be lower than the 20th C average.

          Meanwhile, we’re born and we’ll die. Do you have a link to any peer reviewed study that points to that uncontroversial ‘fact’ that, without fossil, the global human population will crash to about one billion?

          • Colonial Viper 8.1.1.3.1

            And this April was by far the hottest April on a record running back to 1880.

            March was the warmest March on record. February was the hottest February on record. The same statement holds for January; for December; November and for every month back through to May of last year.

            I think your post suggests that we are definitely more warm on an annual basis, and although it may not be by 1.29 deg C, it is for the entire year.

            Do you have a link to any peer reviewed study that points to that uncontroversial ‘fact’ that, without fossil, the global human population will crash to about one billion?

            No, unfortunately. And it won’t “crash” it’ll decline over a century or so, unless catastrophic circumstances occur.

            • xanthe 8.1.1.3.1.1

              CV
              “And it won’t “crash” it’ll decline over a century or so, unless catastrophic circumstances occur.”

              thats Bullshit !

              • Colonial Viper

                *Shrug*

                Just look at the world population in the 100,000 years before the 1800s and before fossil fuel use became ubiquitous.

                • Gristle

                  The speed with which systems change can be phenomenally quick and the outcomes are largely unexpected. Sure there will be lone voices, but they are dismissed as crazy (and of course some will be crazy).

                  IMO the soft landing option is unlikely to happen and there will too many tears for too many people.

                  • Colonial Viper

                    Bearing in mind for the poor and homeless in Paris, and in Barcelona, and in Athens, and in Las Vegas, – and apparently now in Auckland – the end of western civilisation has already come.

                    For us fools temporarily a bit higher up on the “socioeconomic ladder”…as Orlov says…we are the ones with further to fall. And it is going to hurt.

                    • Bill

                      No, western civilisation is still very present in their lives. It’s what’s filling their lives with so much bloody hopelessness. They’ve been deliberately marginalised and offered institutional ‘support’ from institutions that have been quite consciously rendered dysfunctional.

                    • weka

                      Not to mention the fact that civ still provides their food, shelter and warmth even where it does so deficiently.

                    • Colonial Viper

                      I guess living in the Las Vegas storm drains counts as civ providing their shelter…

                    • weka

                      Where do they get their food from? Because I’m betting it still comes from an industrial source.

                    • Colonial Viper

                      sure, they dumpster dive behind the 7-11

                    • weka

                      Yes, part of civilisation. It’s not like civilisation has ever been civilised for all people 😉

      • xanthe 8.1.2

        thanks Weka I was just about to make the same point.
        what if …. the general population on a visceral level does get global warming?
        what if … in arguing with the climate deniers you are actually giving them air (ironically enough) and as above giving the message we are all doomed

        Now I have no scientific proof but I actually believe that around 90% of all oil consumption is waste unneccessary or damageing (wanna war anyone?)… properly organised everyones quality of life would improve if we stopped.
        Yes the financial house of cards that is founded on exponential growth of consumption would fall, … everyons life would improve.
        Yes there would have to be more local production of foods and consumption of foods and yes these foods would be less processed, packaged , an transported ….health would improve.
        Yes we would work less in jobs and more in providing food, shelter, culture, for our local community….. and we would be happier for it

        A message of doom and disaster as a certaincy plays into the “well then lets make sure we grab our share of whats left” ie it boosts the policys of jk

        lets promote the positive vision of the very real benefits of a zero waste, zero extraction, economy.

        • weka 8.1.2.1

          It would certainly be good to get the debate to that place. I think many people are still largely stuck in varying degrees of powerlessness. We’ve been talking about this for a long time on ts, but how many of us are actually making the changes towards that kind of life? The biggest challenge here is what is going on inside people’s heads.

          • b waghorn 8.1.2.1.1

            I’m of the opinion that change has to come from the government down but that can only happen in a democracy if the voters lean on them.
            As for what’s in my mind re climate change ,
            A ;I will support any party that’s promotes real action ( the ets is not real action.
            B; I will be watching for the best way to protect my own if things get rough
            C; I am going to try and make life as enjoyable as possible for those close to me in case the end is near.

            One very good mate said to me the other day that he just feels that the job is to big and feels powerless.

            • weka 8.1.2.1.1.1

              We feel powerless, but we’re not. There are so many things we can do. I agree with that bit abot it’s up to govts to make the change and for voters to lean on them to act. At this point, because of the govt we have, I think my energy is better spent on pushing and encouraging people to wake up and act so that they will then lean on authorities.

        • johnm 8.1.3.1

          I’ve encountered Wekas many times at the top of the South Island, they’re charming and mischievous and run off with objects you leave on the ground. And pace around your camp site looking for more opportunities.

          A much loved Kiwi bird! 🙂

    • Draco T Bastard 8.2

      A disturbing article on seemorerocks

      And which article would that one be?

    • Bill 8.3

      Disturbing? Not really.

      Stripping away all the spiritual references and ignoring the stupid “McPhersonesque” prompt she bought into, and it comes down to someone struggling to emotionally engage with the realisation that, sure, maybe we have bit the big one.

      See. Whether we have or haven’t ‘bit the big one’, we certainly aren’t responding to our situation with intelligence, either at the institutional, systemic, collective or individual level.

      And that includes debozarko, the writer of the post who, for the time being at least, seems to have decided that the best course of action is to get all self indulgent, a bit self pitying – maybe even fatalistic – and then offer credence to a strategy that basically involves either turning turtle or playing dead.

      Maybe they’ll come out of it. Or maybe they’ll stay hitched to the McPherson wagon train. That “Freedom from Hope” is the working title for an upcoming post in June kind of suggests some fairly feverish gripping on a one way ticket for the wagon train of doom though. 😉

      • weka 8.3.1

        Good explanation.

        I’m all for people working through their panic and distress, so they can cope and hopefully take action. Can’t see the point in getting fatalistic though. I also find it weird the need to almost proselytise the view. If I believed it was the end of the world with no redemption then I think I’d shut up and let people just be how they are. What is the point of all the increased suffering if you think there is nothing that can be done? Maybe they don’t want to be alone in it.

  6. johnm 9

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5vaIjs5lC3U

    [Johnm. I quite enjoy some of your vid links, they can be quite informative. But…too many on a thread kind of turns the thread into ‘wallpaper’. Plus – how about a little bit of context? At the moment it’s not a million miles away from somebody dropping text links with no accompanying commentary explaining why somebody might want to click the link. And that’s something that’s generally frowned on.] – Bill

    • Chooky 9.1

      +100…well worth watching

    • johnm 9.2

      Hi Bill

      “I quite enjoy some of your vid links, they can be quite informative.”

      That’s a put down. The Antarctic ice sheets are going to melt increasing sea level by metres, many metres.

      The Arctic is set to get exponentially hotter as sea ice disappears faster and faster at the end of the Summer season and that’s “quite informative”!

      These dare I say scientists know what they’re talking about far more than you, me or Weka know.

      I think it’s alot more serious than “quite informative”

      Have a nice day 🙂

      • Chooky 9.2.1

        +100 johnm… local comments are all very well but I would prefer to learn from the real experts

      • Bill 9.2.2

        How is it a put down? Some of the links provide details I wasn’t aware of. Some don’t. What you want me to call that if not ‘quite informative’?

        • Chooky 9.2.2.1

          “expert”

          ie . information and visuals from scientists on the ground , who have studied the situation for years

          …they are the core source of everyone’s knowledge about climate change..they are experts in their field…their analysis can change with new evidence, data and debate amongst other experts

          …these climate scientist experts do not have complete absolute and total knowledge because we all have anecdotal knowledge and our own personal experience of climate change in our areas and ideas what to do about it ..but a lot of our core understanding of climate change is derivative from these experts

        • johnm 9.2.2.2

          Sounds dramatic but it’s like someone told you back in 1940 the Germans had just invaded the Holland and Belgium: ” Thanks for that it’s quite informative!? ” Bill, you seem not to have any understanding of the severity and seriousness of this issue! It really could end our smug civilisation for ever, don’t you feel and realise that!? It is the Truth without lies and spin. Like Paul Henry’s “we’re schickered”.

          • Chooky 9.2.2.2.1

            +100…a case of home grown ‘experts’ are unimpressed with international researcher experts

            …that link shows that the crisis could be faster than forecast, faster than expected and we are, most of us, unprepared

            ‘Risk From Abrupt Climate Change is Enormous’

            …”Published on Feb 25, 2016
            People (public, politicians, even scientists) are terrible at evaluating RISK. As a result, society makes many stupid choices and fails to worry and deal with the most serious problems. People need to worry a lot more about ABRUPT climate change, which dwarfs all other risks…

          • Bill 9.2.2.2.2

            Oh, I think I’m fairly cognisant of how serious the situation is. I expect it could easily result in a world where we wouldn’t recognise any human presence as anything resembling early 21C civilisation. And I also know that I can’t remember the last time I saw a report that said things weren’t as bad as previously thought. N’fact, I don’t think I’ve ever read such a thing. And I know it could all cascade rather abruptly.

            Now, what was your point?

            All I pointed out was that a screed of vid links one after the other (often re-posts) ain’t so flash. That, and that a lot of the info is already known by people reading these posts and commenting on AGW threads.

            Have you noticed how AGW posts are kind of siloed these days? Like the same people, if commenting is anything to go by, are avoiding them ‘like the plague’? Or how, even a goodly number who do comment, aren’t really engaging, preferring to look at it all via mirrors as it were?

            • Chooky 9.2.2.2.2.1

              well I stand by my first comment to johnm….”+100…well worth watching”

              …you then questioned johnm’s contribution… he found what you subsequently said as a “put down”… i also found it as a put down of my positive comment to his link..

              personally while local comments are of interest i would prefer to be informed by experts on climate change…as I dont have much time to follow endless arguing of points or statements of the obvious

              …so for me these links to experts are valuable

  7. Colonial Viper 10

    Its the poor fools in steerage and third class who first notice the water pouring in.

    The idiots in First Class are still up there in the ballroom completely oblivious. And the ones who understand that there is something going on don’t think that the water will ever affect them.

  8. dukeofurl 12

    Nice weather down here ?

    Historical temperatures compared to monthly highs in Dunedin ( Airport)

    http://www.metservice.com/towns-cities/dunedin

    Average over last 10 years of maximum temperature in April is 24C. Pretty warm on average you would think

    • weka 12.1

      Cool, we should just shift the whole planet including the biosphere to the Dunedin Airport.

      You are a denialist. All you can do in this thead is try and prevent people from taking CC seriously (and via troll moves at that). That’s pretty fucked up in the scheme of things.

      • Colonial Viper 12.1.1

        dukeofurl is a good barometer in that he tends to represent some of the thinking of the Labour Party hierarchy.

        • dukeofurl 12.1.1.1

          Do you mean those people in Labour who are elected by the voters.

          Much to my surprise the long term rise in temperature in Dunedin isnt matching that of the ‘Globe’
          http://www.niwa.co.nz/our-science/climate/information-and-resources/nz-temp-record/seven-station-series-temperature-data

          The average temperature in Dunedin in 2015 was 11.18C, that of 1909 was 11.10

          Not the increase I was expecting, science is like that, doesnt give you the numbers you want. The highest was in 1999 but dropped back a bit since then.

          • McFlock 12.1.1.1.1

            Why would you be surprised?

            You’re talking about the difference between two observations in one variable (temperature station), when the discussion is about the sum total of differences in all variables (global temperature averages). Hell, if you’d selected Dunedin 1910, You might have found a temperature decrease (statistical noise, of course, but you’d have been pleased).

            In other words, the discussion is about “climate”, and you’re wittering on about “weather”.

            • dukeofurl 12.1.1.1.1.1

              Its the average temperature over a year, so its climate. Do you know anything about climate science ? Doesnt seem to be.

              Average over all the years since 1909 is 11.78C for Dunedin
              Last year average was 11.18. So its below the long term average from the climate data

              Of course two years that are 100 years apart is not a good way to look at this but using the anomaly is difficult without graphs and charts. But the link is there for others to produce the numbers that show Dunedin is above the NZ long term average, or not.

              • Colonial Viper

                Its the average temperature over a year, so its climate.

                OMFG

              • Colonial Viper

                I suggest that climate is typically a 20 year to 100 year view of the weather. But NASA says this:

                What Climate Means

                In short, climate is the description of the long-term pattern of weather in a particular area.

                Some scientists define climate as the average weather for a particular region and time period, usually taken over 30-years. It’s really an average pattern of weather for a particular region.

                When scientists talk about climate, they’re looking at averages of precipitation, temperature, humidity, sunshine, wind velocity, phenomena such as fog, frost, and hail storms, and other measures of the weather that occur over a long period in a particular place.

                For example, after looking at rain gauge data, lake and reservoir levels, and satellite data, scientists can tell if during a summer, an area was drier than average. If it continues to be drier than normal over the course of many summers, than it would likely indicate a change in the climate.

                http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/noaa-n/climate/climate_weather.html

              • McFlock

                So your argument against a global rise of 2C by 2030 is that Dunedin weather station has been slighlty more stable if you compare only the start point and the end point of the measurement period?

                good-oh

                • dukeofurl

                  The global rise isnt being reflected locally, Dunedin in particular. That surprises me , yes.
                  Average of annual temps in Dunedin is 11.07, last years annual average is 11.18.
                  A 1/10 degree more than the long term average, over 110 years, that surprises me. But it is what it is.

                  • McFlock

                    It is sampling noise within the sampling of a single station that goes towards an aggregate trend analysis.

                    Other years in Dunedin will provide greater or lesser variation over the aggregate annual average.

                    Other weather stations around the globe will have greater or lesser variation from the global average.

                    Your observations about Dunedin are not particularly unexpected or relevant to a post about global averages.

                  • In Vino

                    For heaven’s sake, dof. Did you not see the global maps of warming/cooling that showed NZ as being one of the very few areas in the world to be cool during early summer?
                    Forget your silly little back yard, and recognise the big pattern of undeniable warming.

                    [“Unfortunately” dof can’t respond to your query because if he does, he’ll cop a lengthy ban.] – Bill

            • weka 12.1.1.1.1.2

              He’s doing a backtrack. His original posts were clearly implicating that there was something wrong with Bill’s post but not overt enough to wear a denialists tshirt. This is the guy who says NZ doesn’t need to worry about sea level rise because shifts in tectonic plates will keep ahead of the water.

              • b waghorn

                “This is the guy who says NZ doesn’t need to worry about sea level rise because shifts in tectonic plates will keep ahead of the water.”

                Complete Muppet wishes for massive tectonic upheaval to combat ocean inundation, fuck I hope dukeofurl is a long way from any decision making.

                • weka

                  He means normal lift from slow tectonic overlap, but yeah a numpty of fairly high order.

                • dukeofurl

                  You are incorrect, I do think the tectonic movements for the parts of NZ that have them, are a bigger problem, as they are in the orders of cms per year, while sea level rise currently is mm

                  http://www.gns.cri.nz/Home/Our-Science/Earth-Science/Plate-Tectonics/NZ-plate-boundary

                  Not much of NZ that isnt in the plate boundary zone. of course the north of the NI will have the normal rising sea levels.
                  Your attempts to score points against me and be the self appointed witch burners is tedious, and hugely off topic.

                  • In Vino

                    ‘normal sea rising levels’… They are no longer normal, dof.
                    You remind me of someone… Now who could that be? Who over the years in history and literature have tried to deny reality?
                    Marie Antoinette comes to mind. She thought it was OK to live in a world of artificial privilege.

              • McFlock

                lol

                Climate change not a problem, monthly tsunamis caused by high-magnitude quakes suddenly become an issue. Great.

          • Colonial Viper 12.1.1.1.2

            Do you mean those people in Labour who are elected by the voters.

            Yes, those fewer and fewer of them.

            • dukeofurl 12.1.1.1.2.1

              Yes its a similar pattern in western countries with labour or social democratic parties. Vote is splintered on the left. Works against them gaining government except in Australia where the preferential system flows favour labour.

              • Colonial Viper

                That must explain NZ Labour’s vote collapsing from the 40% range 10 years ago to the 20% range today.

                • McFlock

                  a wee bit off topic, but it’s certainly a factor.

                • dukeofurl

                  Perhaps you could write a post on how NZ labour is the outlier in recent elections , Ireland, Scoltand, UK etc.

                  • Colonial Viper

                    NZ Labour is history, like the rest of the establishment former-left parties around the globe.

          • Millicent 12.1.1.1.3

            Hi, I’m a “I recognise climate change but I’m certain its not totally due to anthropogenic causes”. By hazard I picked up a Readers Digest 1970’s edition of British Birds in which the into discusses in length climate change in the UK over the last few thousand years and how this has impacted on species found and their numbers. The book seems to have been written and edited by highly qualified scientists. I don’t know who wrote the intro but really does ‘put things in perspective as far as climate is concerned.” In the 1930’s Britain’s climate was almost comparable to the ‘little optimum of 900-1200 AD.” and During the first half of the 20th century the tree-line rose by several hundred feet ( I can’t believe humans had enough impact in the 1920’s to provoke that… population was way lower and China and Japan not industrialised.

    • Bill 12.2

      You linked to one day’s local weather that was below the 10 year average maximum land temperature for the month in that location and….idiocy.

      Maybe you thought you were being a wee bit smart in referring to local temperatures pertaining to the place where you reckon the author was writing from? And it didn’t cross your mind that ‘down here’ just referred to ‘on the ground’?

      Did I already point out the idiocy of your comment?

      Would I be right to assume you have nothing intelligent to say about the info contained in the post?

      • dukeofurl 12.2.1

        Check that tab to show historical temperatures in Dunedin. Doesnt have a direct link to the climate data other than by this method.
        My view is that it has certainly become warmer in Dunedin in April than say 30 years ago, in last few years not so much. Long term rise in temperature and all that stuff.
        As for Dunedin it was an inspired guess.
        http://thestandard.org.nz/an-occupation-occupied-what%E2%80%99s-next/

        Should I choose another town ?

        • McFlock 12.2.1.1

          Don’t choose another town.

          Do a decent trend analysis on all the data points and confirm whether NIWA’s numbers are correct, or make a convincing argument as to why the numbers or the methodology behind them is incorrect.

          Then get two or three people who know about math and suchlike to check the numbers, and submit it to a journal for publication so that other people can test your and NIWA’s figuring. That’s how science works.

          • dukeofurl 12.2.1.1.1

            NIWA has better climate stats in their little finger than those who would question them.
            They have leading scientists who have used methods based on previous gold standard published science to make their ‘7 station long term temperature series’
            Im not surprised to get an anti science views from some. Science also doesnt always give the numbers you expect. I was expecting warmer temps in Dunedin over the long term , but its not so.

            • Colonial Viper 12.2.1.1.1.1

              Maybe climate change isn’t a problem for Dunedin then.

              Sweet.

              • McFlock

                Well, temperature change.

                Still need to work on the southD mud tanks…

              • dukeofurl

                Would explain the lack of interest in a climate change party amoung the locals then.
                What a bummer , not being a global warming hotspot. No droughts, no deluges, no fires… well apart from some drunk students, but they have missed out.

                • Colonial Viper

                  What would you know of the politics of Dunedin locals?

                  I can tell you one thing – they’ve stopped giving their party vote to Labour, in both Dunedin North and in Dunedin South.

                  • I imagine that that’ll come as a surprise to the 25 thousand or so Dunedin South and North voters who ticked party vote Labour at the last election, CV. I predict that now that the party is again united and focussed in the south of the city, the party vote can only improve 😉

                  • dukeofurl

                    Bill is my source:
                    “Currently not holding out much hope on the community front. Broadly speaking, it’s fragmented and essentially fighting itself as every individual continues to try to get ahead at the expense of the person they were once in community with.”
                    I presume he was speaking locally.

                    You learn something everyday, Im now quite au fait with Dunedin long term climate change.

                    • Colonial Viper

                      I hope your analysis is not representative of the performance of the brains trust for a certain major political party.

                • McFlock

                  “no deluges”?

                  Seriously?

                  They’re still cleaning up the mess (literal and bureaucratic) from the last one!

                  • Colonial Viper

                    South Dunedin has been flooded before, nothing new there, certainly nothing to do with Climate Change 😉

                    • dukeofurl

                      Thats right , just poor drainage for a suburb built on a swamp. And a council which throws money at a stadium and other baubles rather then a vital infrastructure.

                      [Silly me for not keeping a closer eye on what was happening on this thread. This was your last ever comment on a post by me that’s about global warming. If you make any further comments on any posts I do on this topic, you’ll cop a ban, the length of which will be arbitrarily decided by the mood ‘m in at the time. Safe to assume it will be for a long time though.] – Bill

                    • weka

                      same with New Oleans!

  9. gsays 13

    Thanks Bill,
    I have mulling this over for a while.

    It seems to me to be a call to further build resilience in our community.

    I spent the weekend with a civil defence chap, if he said prepper once he said it a dozen times.

    So often those two ideas are at odds with each other.

    Feels like the realistic way.forward.

    • Bill 13.1

      Currently not holding out much hope on the community front. Broadly speaking, it’s fragmented and essentially fighting itself as every individual continues to try to get ahead at the expense of the person they were once in community with.

      • Robert Guyton 13.1.1

        Hope, Pandora, is not to be sneezed at. It will probably be all we have left and will represent the only way through. I’m holding onto it, no matter what you clever folk might say. That and doing everything I can to make the world a better place. Keeps me busy and stops me fretting 🙂

        • Colonial Viper 13.1.1.1

          Hope is fine, necessary and helpful.

          Optimism, not so much.

        • weka 13.1.1.2

          The thing I like about that approach is that not matter what the reality, it still brings multiple benefits. And the things we need to do in response to cc are the things we should be doing anway. Keeping busy and not fretting is not to be sneezed at either.

      • Robert Atack 13.1.2

        Back in the dim dark past when even I had ‘hope’ I thought that doing a several month bus tour, hopping from Marari to Marari ala Transition Towns, (before they had the name), could have been a way of spreading the word, and sewing the seed 😉
        Eventually the tribal system maybe the last ‘structure’ left.

    • xanthe 13.2

      grow local eat local

  10. I think we hit +1.5 C in March didn’t we? Something like .3C up on the year befor??
    2030 may be a bit of hopeful thinking.
    But all’s not lost because something like 2.6 million Kiwis are putting their money on creating more CO2, via the growth based savings scam that is KiwiSaver.
    2.6 million people will not want to vote for the climate over $. And I guess that goes for the person starting a 50 year mortgage, and the mother looking into the eyes of her newborn. They simply do not want to listen, facts and ‘happy happy joy joy’ beliefs/thoughts can not occupy the same cranium.
    Most people don’t appreciate how lucky we are, we are traveling first class on the Titanic, especially those who can read this, we are living the dream.

    • Colonial Viper 14.1

      Robert Atack, we need Kiwi Saver and the Cullen Fund because the NZ Government may not be able to afford to pay out on NZ Super after 2060.

      Or something.

      BTW is there time to order another round of cocktails from the bar.

    • Most people live their lives as though some massive calamity isn’t about to befall them? It’s unfathomable. Still, people in Malthus’ time didn’t commit suicide en masse either – nowt so queer as folk, eh?

      • Robert Atack 14.2.1

        I think If Malthus understood fossil fueled population growth, he would be turning in his grave at the thought of 7.2 (?) billion of us.
        That is without a space port ferrying in nutrients to sustain us ) And taking the garbage away.
        I think it was Richard Heinberg who asked if humans were smarter than yeast?

        • Paul 14.2.1.1

          Arithmetic, Population and Energy — a talk by Dr. Albert Bartlett on the impossibility of exponential growth on a finite planet.

          Professor Al Bartlett begins his one-hour talk with the statement, “The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function.”

          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-QA2rkpBSY

        • Psycho Milt 14.2.1.2

          Meh. When I was a kid it was nuclear armageddon that had the doomsayers scoffing at those foolish enough to have children, take out a mortgage or save for their retirement. Well, them and the “end times” enthusiasts. The people now excitedly waiting for western civilisation to be swept away by the imminent environmental holocaust are hardly distinguishable from the ones who used to hand me tracts listing the many signs that reveal these are the end times and judgement is at hand – don’t go clearing your appointments calendar is my advice.

          • Colonial Viper 14.2.1.2.1

            How much are those Roman government bonds worth these days? Or that mansion in Pompeii?

            Or more recently, in the 1990s when an entire Soviet family’s life savings ended up being worth a good pair of work boots due to simple currency collapse.

          • Pat 14.2.1.2.2

            a slight difference in those examples however….97% of scientists weren’t the ones handing you those tracts….it was some sandled individual in tie-dye.

            • weka 14.2.1.2.2.1

              Bloody hippies 😉

              https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Physicians_for_Social_Responsibility

              I think the fact that we haven’t had a nuclear war could speak to success of the peace movements not failure.

              • Pat

                certainly didn’t do any harm….luck may have also played a part.

                • weka

                  true. I find the convergence of activism and chance turning into a tipping point to be fascinating and probably where the best hope is (for those that are into that sort of thing).

              • Actually, the end-times nutcases tended to be conservatives in their Sunday best – sandals and tie-dye was more the anti-nuclear types. And 97% of scientists are not telling us that there’s no point in living as though civilisation was going to survive the next few decades.

                I think the fact that we haven’t had a nuclear war could speak to success of the peace movements not failure.

                Sure. With the end-times comparison I’m thinking more of commenters like CV and Robert Atack, who seem to be not only convinced western civilisation’s about to fall but also positively looking forward to it.

  11. When I go on about how there is SFA we can do to halt or even moderate climate change, that it is at it’s own runaway speed, and like the ball hitting the roulette wheel, our efforts to slow this thing are as a futile, and insignificant.
    Everyone gets all crybaby at me, instead of fucking around tilting at windmills* ‘people’ need to be building local support groups, these things might need years in the making, when the wholesale collapse of this BS system could be a matter of months away? God knows??
    The more organised we are at food distribution, the longer things will hold together.
    Of course not bringing a child into the shit storm would be ideal, next best thing would be to prevent them from being next week’s barbeque.
    It is going to be millions of years before we see sub 400 ppm CO2. The environment has reached 400 so fast it has overtaken the effects, maybe like the sound barrier ? It could be popping now?
    Regardless, the shit is going down, we could be entering the 5 + degrees in 10 years scenario, but like I said as ‘we’ have gone through the sound barrier at exponential speed, anything is possible, that must be what ‘10,000 times faster’ means, surly?
    *Climate change marches, international meetings (COP out) , so called carbon tax, And even ‘dare I say it’ people like Guy McPherson traveling all over the place giving talks, not that he isn’t an okay person, but his efforts are just like that ball. etc etc,
    bla bla

    • johnm 15.1

      Earth’s ‘Battery’ Draining Too Fast to Sustain Life .
      Posted on May 16, 2016 by Kevin Hester — 1 Comment

      We have exceeded our planetary boundaries and are in the free-fall stage of this disaster.
      For the people of Africa this collapse is already underway, it’s only an “Academic discussion” in privileged circles predominantly in the Affluent West.

      “If we don’t reverse this trend, we’ll eventually reach a point where the biomass battery discharges to a level at which Earth can no longer sustain us,” Schramski said.

      Sorry to be the ‘Bringer’ of bad news but if you factor in Runaway Abrupt Climate Change and the 10 to 40 year lag between cause and effect you can see that the credit the planet is living on has Expired.

      Professor Guy McPherson and myself will tour NZ in November 2016 talking about the immediate consequences that will unfold as the greatest experiment in the history of our species plays out on the unsuspecting.

      Habitat collapse, Global Economic collapse, Habitat, Food and Water wars. 450 Nuclear Power Station melt-downs and 1200 spent fuel pool fires. Welcome to our dystopian future that will very soon be our reality.
      ———- ———-

      ‘Unless humans slow the destruction of Earth’s declining supply of plant life, civilization like it is now may become completely unsustainable, according to a paper published recently by University of Georgia researchers in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

      “You can think of the Earth like a battery that has been charged very slowly over billions of years,” said the study’s lead author, John Schramski, an associate professor in UGA’s College of Engineering. “The sun’s energy is stored in plants and fossil fuels, but humans are draining energy much faster than it can be replenished.” Article in full, continues here: ‘Earth’s ‘Battery’ Draining Too Fast to Sustain Life‘:

      https://kevinhester.live/2016/05/16/earths-battery-draining-too-fast-to-sustain-life/comment-page-1/#comment-67

    • JonL 15.2

      Have you read Dmitry Orlov’s “The Five Stages of Collapse – a Survivors Toolkit” ?
      a quick review here http://cluborlov.blogspot.com.au/p/the-five-stages-of-collapse.html
      His style is easy to read and does make one think – it’s not really doom and gloom, but – “In the interest of avoiding misunderstandings, it bears repeating that this is not a “Unless we…” book or a “We must…” book. If you are looking for a book that will tell you how to keep nine plus billion people alive in a carbon-neutral way, you are bound to be disappointed. Also, this book is likely to test the limits of your mental comfort zone, because you will, in the course of reading it, discover that the people who stand the greatest chance of surviving collapse do not resemble you socially or culturally.

      • Bill 15.2.1

        Stages 1 through 3, I agree with. In my book, he has four and five all wrong though.

        He suggests Stage 4: Social collapse. Faith that “your people will take care of you” is lost.

        Well, we live in a dog eat dog society at the moment where (jut to give one example) older people are shuffled off and into (often) sterile old folks homes to be cared for by strangers on minimum wage. So, fuck knows where he thinks that “faith” that “your people will take care of you” is coming from. Stage four could just as well be realising that we have to look out for one another….turning ‘individualism’ on its head. The anthropological study of the Ik people he leans on to promote his misanthropy has been thoroughly discredited btw

        Stage 5: Cultural collapse. Faith in “the goodness of humanity” is lost.

        Again. I think he’s got it all upside down or back to front. Maybe we’ll actually start paying attention to our better sides and acting on them. Look at the world today. Show me the overwhelming goodness that’s on display. The goodness of humanity could actually be found, not lost.

        • Colonial Viper 15.2.1.1

          You have to realise that Orlov is taking the perspective of what he knows and what he has seen: the slowly collapsing USA today and the collapse of the USSR last century.

          He ain’t talking about the situation in Aotearoa. We’re luckier here than in those places.

          • Bill 15.2.1.1.1

            So he’s talking from a culturally conditioned perspective and flipping it over. So did Ayn Rand.

            Russian society collapsing and the aftermath being hammered hard by market fundamentalism might be a reason for his stage four and stage five – they make sense in that context. But only that context. Meanwhile, we’re taking about about a collapse with no ‘geared up and ready to go’ political or economic ideology imposing itself post collapse …of the globally integrated human community simply ‘going south’. An entirely different scenario.

            • weka 15.2.1.1.1.1

              I think 4 and 5 come from his exeriences in the US not Russia. His work on post-USSR showed that the Russians were actually far better adapted to collapse than the Americans would be, and those in the country especially were relatively ok, precisely because those things you are talking about (helping each other) already existed.

              • Pat

                I see Orlov is big on stage 3 and the role of military….. is worth noting NZ has a grand total of around 6000 servicemen and women, going to be spread pretty thin….or very concentrated?

                • Colonial Viper

                  NZ/US military exercises in the South Island focussed on suppressing social unrest a couple of years ago.

                  The key is to identify and isolate potential trouble makers and trouble organisers early on.

                  The politically active and so forth.

                  • Pat

                    that could be achieved with a very small number…and probably not strictly the military…..Orlov has the military in a construction, distribution policing role in the main (from the brief outline linked)..and recall that exercise but suspect if it came to that here the US would have its hands full at home and would not likely be looking to the likes of here

                    • Colonial Viper

                      The central US could fall into disarray leaving tens of thousands of US servicemen stranded overseas with no easy way to get back home.

                      With their arms, and with a broken down chain of command.

                  • Pat

                    unlikely stranded….they have one or two naval vessels……a rogue one of those could be problematic.

            • Colonial Viper 15.2.1.1.1.2

              Well, I tend to disagree with your conclusions here, as they are pretty glib and easy.

              What you’ve forgotten about is how people react when their lives and plans as they knew and assumed come to an abrupt and poorly explained end.

              And the absolute social and psychological disaster which results, when large parts of your society decide to give up and drink or fight themselves to death.

              • Pat

                “Impunity is so widespread that lynchings have now become common.

                Several months ago a thief stole a motorcycle at gunpoint in one of the steep winding streets of the neighbourhood. A group of motorcyclists chased down the thief, beat him, doused him with gasoline and set him on fire.

                John Díaz, 25 said he didn’t participate in the mob but saw the man’s charred remains on the street.

                “People are fed up. With everything,” he said.

                The lynching and looting are manifestations of anger and impotence that clinical psychologist Liliana Castiglione is seeing in her practice where 80% her patients’ problems are related to the country’s economic and social crisis.”
                http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/20/venezuela-breaking-point-food-shortages-protests-maduro

              • Pat

                “Impunity is so widespread that lynchings have now become common.

                Several months ago a thief stole a motorcycle at gunpoint in one of the steep winding streets of the neighbourhood. A group of motorcyclists chased down the thief, beat him, doused him with gasoline and set him on fire.

                John Díaz, 25 said he didn’t participate in the mob but saw the man’s charred remains on the street.

                “People are fed up. With everything,” he said.

                The lynching and looting are manifestations of anger and impotence that clinical psychologist Liliana Castiglione is seeing in her practice where 80% her patients’ problems are related to the country’s economic and social crisis.”
                http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/20/venezuela-breaking-point-food-shortages-protests-maduro

        • weka 15.2.1.2

          I’m not sure Orlov is a mistanthrope. I haven’t read the book but I read a lot of his articles and blogposts when I was educating myself about peak oil back in the day and I always thought he was a good blend of the realistic and the potential. He appears to be saying that these are five levels of collapse, each increasingly bad, and that we have some choices about which stages we go through. It’s not inevitable that each will happen.

          Re old people’s homes, stage 4 is when society no longer has the state structure to provide for old people. As bad as rest homes are, not having them would be worse. He’s talking about where we are now (we have rest homes) and if we go through the 4th stage collapse, things get so bad that old people will be dependent on family (too bad if they don’t have any). He’s not saying that this is inevitable and permanent (except maybe stage 5), he’s just describing what will happen if we get to that stage in the collapse. What we do after that is up to us I guess.

          From an older link,


          While attempting to arrest collapse at Stage 1 and Stage 2 would probably be a dangerous waste of energy, it is probably worth everyone’s while to dig in their heels at Stage 3, definitely at Stage 4, and it is quite simply a matter of physical survival to avoid Stage 5. In certain localities – those with high population densities, as well as those that contain dangerous nuclear and industrial installations – avoiding Stage 3 collapse is rather important, to the point of inviting foreign troops and governments in to maintain order and avoid disasters. Other localities may be able to prosper indefinitely at Stage 3, and even the most impoverished environments may be able to support a sparse population subsisting indefinitely at Stage 4.

          http://cluborlov.blogspot.co.nz/2008/02/five-stages-of-collapse.html

        • Millicent 15.2.1.3

          Bill, I’ve just found this site and have been reading comments and don’t understand why you have it in for Dukofurl as he has actually made some very solid statements which he presents clearly with out personal attacks.

    • “Figures released by Nasa over the weekend show the global temperature of land and sea was 1.11C warmer in April than the average temperature for April during the period 1951-1980.”

      How have we gone from comparing now to pre industrial, to comparing now to 1951 – 80 ish?
      COP out 21 was about stopping ‘us’ going to +1.5 from preindustrial, so how are we going with that one?? Wasn’t March +1.5/preindustrial? kind of fucked COP21 didn’t it.

      • Robert Atack 16.1.2

        https://robertscribbler.com/2016/05/16/nasa-world-just-had-seven-months-straight-of-record-shattering-global-heat/

        According to NASA GISS, global temperatures in April were 1.11 degrees Celsius (C) hotter than its 20th Century baseline average. When compared to preindustrial readings (NASA 1880s), temperatures have globally heated by a total of +1.33 C. And that’s a really big jump in global heat, especially when one considers the context of the last seven months. When one looks at that, it appears that global temperatures are racing higher with a fearful speed.

        • Bill 16.1.2.1

          I admit to being a bit confused. The source I used in the post was the ‘National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Follow the link for the NOAA in the post, and you’ll see they say this about March of this year.

          Overall, the nine highest monthly temperature departures in the record have all occurred in the past nine months. March 2016 also marks the 11th consecutive month a monthly global temperature record has been broken, the longest such streak in NOAA’s 137 years of record keeping.

          (emphasis added)

          It’s kind of academic to bother about the difference in reporting between them and NASA at this stage, but still….

          • Colonial Viper 16.1.2.1.1

            great, so for those 9 months not only were there all time record highs, but those record highs exceeded the previous record by a record large amount. Just fabulous.

            • Bill 16.1.2.1.1.1

              Yeah. I dunno. Seems like two different things are getting reported, depending on the source. Maybe one of the sources glitched in their reporting? I haven’t gone away and tried to figure it out. Like I say, it seems kind of academic, y’know…is that a three tonne boulder that landed on him or a five tonne boulder?

  12. Smilin 17

    Just shows dont it that the Green revolution is in everything we do and is maligned purely because there aint an advertising buck in the truth and that people think they’re going to be immortal purely by believing in the ignorant view that having everything is the saving grace of their totally limited lives by controlled by debt mongers like Key

  13. Elizabeth 18

    It’s really disturbing, the global warming is a fact, I hope people will start doing something about it

    [Spam link removed. Thanks, CV. TRP]

  14. Elizabeth 19

    [Deleted.TRP]

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