Northland: 3News Poll Nails Nats.

Written By: - Date published: 6:35 pm, March 25th, 2015 - 113 comments
Categories: by-election, national, nz first, Politics, polls, winston peters - Tags: , , ,

The latest 3News/Reid Research poll confirms that voters are seeing this as a two horse race. And one of the two horses is decidedly lame. Winston Peters is on 54%, well ahead of National’s Mark Osborne (34%) and Labour’s Willow-Jean Prime is coming a distant third with 10%, with much of her vote clearly going to the NZ First leader. The previous poll had the numbers at 35/30/16.

National will be confident that the unusually high early voter turnout will give their man a solid base to win from. Peters, on the other hand, will be hoping that indications of a lift in late registrations can only be from voters who are seizing the opportunity to write Northland into the political history books.

While the early voting is up on the General Election, the key factor will be the turnout. By-elections tend to have low participation rates, unless there is something in it that energises voters. That something in Northland is a combination of years of neglect, a born to rule attitude and the local disgust at having Mike Sabin foisted on them by incompetence, ignorance or arrogance within the local National Party hierarchy. Whatever caused Sabin’s resignation, there is a palpable feeling that the local Nats either did know, or should have known, that he was not MP material.

Personality plays a part, too. John Key’s dismissive putdown that Peters didn’t have a show of winning might be one of the defining moments of his Prime Ministerial career. And not in a good way. Today, Key’s line is that National are the underdog. Woof! Down, boy!

Winston really does look like a winner. He makes his Tory opponent look like a nimrod plucked from obscurity (and destined to swiftly return there) every time he debates him. Osborne can’t win a trick even with Steven Joyce coaching him from the wings in every media appearance. ‘Hey, Clint!’ was a moment in time, as was Pam Corkery’s IMP outburst. This, however, is a month long lesson in how to stuff up a political contest. From candidate selection, through to the failed Key photo op and onto the desperate refusal to attend a live TV debate on the weekend, this has been a truly dismal campaign.

The biggest loser if the seat goes to NZ First won’t be Osborne or Key. It’ll be Joyce. Are the Nat’s still going to trust him to run the next general election campaign after this rout?

113 comments on “Northland: 3News Poll Nails Nats. ”

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  1. Clemgeopin 1
    25 March 2015 at 6:42 pm

    John Key, a few weeks ago, said Winston had ‘Zero, Nada, Zilch, 0’ chance of winning.

    Steven Joyce said last week that the contest it is ‘neck and neck’.

    Today, the polls say,

    Winston 54%
    Osborne 34%

    And Joyce now says……….”We are a little behind!”

    We need more bridges, more Cabinet Ministers, more National MPs, more luxury limousines, more broader bands, more holiday highways and bi-ways and many more bribes to come rushing into Northland NOW! Help! Time is running out!

    ”We are a ‘Little’ behind!”

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/67506389/peters-ahead-in-northland-byelection–poll

    • idlegus 1.1
      25 March 2015 at 7:09 pm

      ‘a little bit behind’, is the stuff headline i just saw! i laughed & laughed & laughed, no wonder the righties are pooing themselves, great stuff northland! (my up north family all nat voters and aware of sabin and not voting nats this time around hurray!)

    • NZJester 1.2
      26 March 2015 at 7:40 am

      They are not a “Little behind” They are a “Big Arse”

  2. repateet 2
    25 March 2015 at 7:00 pm

    ”We are a ‘Little’ behind!” Big arse?

  3. Dorothy 3
    25 March 2015 at 7:05 pm

    During the campaign Act and some in National tried to infer that Winston was not from the North. This was a truly detrimental tactic as long time Northerners well know that Winston and his family are old identities in the North and find this comment insulting.

    • idlegus 3.1
      25 March 2015 at 7:12 pm

      apparently wintson came back with ‘my family have been in the north for 300 years’ ! the man is a marvel, has the energy of someone half his age, i have detested his politics over the years but jeez he deserves respect and awe.

  4. weka 4
    25 March 2015 at 7:14 pm

    All the poll questions are interesting,

    Preferred candidate?

    Winston Peters – 54 percent
    Mark Osborne – 34 percent
    Willow Jean Prime – 10 percent
    Others – 2 percent

    Are the bridge upgrades a bribe?

    Yes 74 – percent
    No 22 – percent
    Don’t know – 4 percent

    Do you agree with the bridge upgrades?

    Yes – 58 percent
    No – 39 percent
    Don’t know – 3 percent

    Can you trust Winston Peters?

    Yes – 43 percent
    No – 48 percent
    Don’t know – 9 percent

    The 3 News-Reid Research poll of 500 Northland voters was taken between March 19 and 22, and has a margin of error of 4.4 percent.

    Read more: http://www.3news.co.nz/nznews/northland-by-election-peters-way-out-in-front-2015032518#ixzz3VNKTntzq

    • hoom 4.1
      25 March 2015 at 8:05 pm

      Lol so in summary: ‘we don’t really like Winston but Fuck You National’

      • Clemgeopin 4.1.1
        25 March 2015 at 9:42 pm

        “So in summary: ‘we don’t really like Winston but Fuck You National’”

        “We may not trust Winston fully, but we still like him a lot and will vote for him in droves because you Nats are completely untrustworthy and the pits. Peters will help achieve much more for Northland than you liars ever will if we foolishly vote for you! 70 years! We don’t want to be a ‘little bit behind’ anymore! So, for now, just bugger off!”

        THAT in effect is what they are saying.

      • The lost sheep 4.1.2
        26 March 2015 at 8:13 am

        er, and the option we like least is Labour?

        It’s a sad state of affairs when The Left is reduced to cheering on another centre right party!

        • felix 4.1.2.1
          26 March 2015 at 8:36 am

          Turn it up mate.

          • Old Mickey 4.1.2.1.1
            26 March 2015 at 10:29 am

            “Winston really does look like a winner. He makes his Tory opponent …..”
            Deep down Winnie is a Tory, and (unlike any left of center politician in the history of the World) will say anything to get elected.

        • Matthew Whitehead 4.1.2.2
          26 March 2015 at 11:07 pm

          Interesting phrase there, “another centre-right party”, are you implying that Labour is centre-right? 😉

    • the pigman 4.2
      25 March 2015 at 8:15 pm

      Pretty leading questions aren’t they (in both directions, admittedly)? Why “Can you trust Winston Peters?” and no “Can you trust Mark Osborne?”

      Can’t argue with the results though 😀

  5. Shona 5
    25 March 2015 at 7:18 pm

    Speaking of Joyce and his election organizing fumbles . Does any one know of the result of the Eminem suit???? Have voted for Winston. Never thought I would but dammit this is electoral gold!

    • dv 5.1
      25 March 2015 at 7:27 pm

      I asked that a while ago on the standard, and the answer the case was on 19th of june as I recall.

  6. Karen 6
    25 March 2015 at 7:21 pm

    What I found particularly interesting is that the last TV3 Poll had 19% undecided, this one only 2%. Looks like the bribes and threats have influenced some uncommitted voters, just not the way the Nats expected.

    • swordfish 6.1
      25 March 2015 at 9:05 pm

      That’s Claire Trevett’s claim in The Herald but I don’t think it stacks up.

      She suggests: “The number of those who said they either would not vote, did not know or would vote for another candidate had also dropped from 19 per cent to just 2 per cent.”

      First of all, we need to sort out the previous TV 3 Reid Research Poll on Northland (conducted March 2-4, released March 5). There have been all kinds of claims and counter-claims in the media and on the blogosphere about the 19% who didn’t choose Peters/Osborne/Prime in that poll. The reality is that: 11.3 % were Undecided, 7.7 % chose either “None” or “Will Not Vote”, with just 0.4 % going for one of the minor candidates.

      TV 3 clearly included the Undecideds and Non-Voters in their poll results for this earlier (March 5) Poll.
      Peters 34.5
      Osborne 30.2
      Prime 16.0
      All Others 0.4
      Undecided 11.3
      None/Won’t Vote 7.7
      = 100.1

      I get the distinct impression that TV 3 / Gower have left the Undecideds/Will Not Vote element out this time (as a way of emphasising the contrast and thus producing a more emphatic headline).

      Latest Poll has Peters 54% / Osborne 34% / Prime 10% / All Others 2%. = 100% (No mention of Undecideds or Won’t Vote).

      Probably, therefore, best to compare like with like…
      (1) Earlier Poll (recalculated with Undecideds/Won’t Vote excluded)
      (2) Latest Poll (which already excludes these respondents)

      Candidate…………..(1)……………(2)
      Peters…………….42.6…………54.0
      Osborne…………37.2………….34.0
      Prime…………….19.7………….10.0
      Others……………0.5……………2.0

      • swordfish 6.1.1
        25 March 2015 at 9:26 pm

        So, on the one hand, these re-calculated figures suggest Peters’ rise isn’t quite as great as appears at face value (though still a major boost – up 11 points rather than 19). But, on the other hand, Osborne’s support has actually fallen over the last month rather than increased slightly (down 3 rather than up 4).

        Also suggests an even greater proportion of Labour voters are heading in Winston’s direction (Prime down 10 rather than 6 points).

        Latest Poll suggests three-quarters of Peters’ support is coming from Labour voters / one-quarter from Nats.

        The Earlier (March 5) Poll had 18% of 2014 Nat voters going for Winston.

        • Clemgeopin 6.1.1.1
          25 March 2015 at 10:09 pm

          I ‘think’ (guessing) that at least half or more of Willow Jean Prime’s 10 % actually comes from the neglected NATS/ACTS who are loath to vote for either Peters or for Osborne for whatever reason.

          Also, it is quite possible that some people answering the phoned in questions may be saying they will vote WJP in order to mischievously distort the poll result for their own ulterior motives. What do you think?

          • swordfish 6.1.1.1.1
            25 March 2015 at 10:40 pm

            Have a look at the breakdowns from the previous Northland Poll (below):

            Suggests a little less than 40% of the 16% Prime received in that Poll came from 2014 Labour supporters. About a third of her support was courtesy of 2014 Green voters, a little less than 20% from 2014 Nats and the (relatively small) remainder from people who either voted for other parties (NZF / Con etc) in 2014 or didn’t vote at all.***

            *** Bear in mind that these calculations (above) are based on the 2014 Party-Vote and the Poll data didn’t make it clear whether these breakdowns were for 2014 Party-Vote or Candidate-Vote.

            For anyone confused – I’ll provide an example – the Greens received 11% of Party-Vote in Northland in 2014, 43% were thinking of voting Prime. 43% of 11% is roughly 5% = close to a third of Prime’s 16%. (It’s a rough calculation and there are other factors that could alter things slightly).

            • swordfish 6.1.1.1.1.1
              25 March 2015 at 11:04 pm

              Actually, given that NZF didn’t put up a candidate in 2014, the poll data (below) must have been referring to the 2014 Party-Vote (so, happily enough, I chose correctly 🙂 ).

      • swordfish 6.1.2
        25 March 2015 at 10:10 pm

        Here’s a breakdown of the earlier (March 5) TV3 Reid Research Poll:

        …………….Peters…Osborne…Prime…All Others..Undecided..Not Vote

        All……………..35……….30………..16…………0……………11…………8
        2014 Lab……..48……….2………….35…………0……………10………..4
        2014 Nat……..18………59…………6…………0……………12………..6
        2014 Green….34………..5…………43………..0……………15………..3
        2014 NZF…….83………..0…………10………..0……………0………….7
        2014 Con…….24……….24…………11……….0……………24………..18
        Not vote…….34……….27…………16………..0……………5…………18
        (in 2014)

        • Kiwiri - Raided of the Last Shark 6.1.2.1
          25 March 2015 at 10:43 pm

          Cheers. Appreciate you posting all the above this evening.

        • Clemgeopin 6.1.2.2
          25 March 2015 at 11:25 pm

          Thanks swordfish for your painstaking stellar work.

          What is your approximate prediction of the result % wise for Saturday?
          Feel free not to, though.

          • Pasupial 6.1.2.2.1
            25 March 2015 at 11:56 pm

            +1

            Swordfish is certainly an illuminating and painstaking commenter. I think that this might work well as a post on his sub-zero blog, which hasn’t seen any new posts since February.

  7. DS 7
    25 March 2015 at 7:29 pm

    This is why Governments rarely invest so much effort in by-elections (either in NZ, or the UK, where they are more common). It’s damn embarrassing if you fail.

    The narrative will no longer be John Key is Invincible. It’ll suddenly be John Key is Dog Food.

  8. ScottGN 8
    25 March 2015 at 7:39 pm

    I was discussing the other day with a workmate the possibility that National are actually trying not to win. That somebody deep in the party is looking far, far ahead to the day (post Key) when National will need NZ1st and are therefore giving them the electoral safety net of a constituency seat. We agreed it was an idea too far-fetched to be true but would go some way to explain the absolute shambles National has made of this by-election

    • b waghorn 8.1
      25 March 2015 at 8:01 pm

      I’m glad I’m not the only one who has wondered if the nats aren’t throwing the match there allies are dwindling. . it’s only two and a bit years to the next election and when you really boil it down could NZF work with the Greens.

      • ScottGN 8.1.1
        25 March 2015 at 8:13 pm

        We were looking further out than the next election. It seems that Key will stand again and there’s too much antipathy between him and Peters for the thing to work. We assumed either a narrow victory for National in 2017 and Key then retiring or a spell on the opposition benches, a new leader and some arrangement after the 2020 election.

      • ScottGN 8.1.2
        25 March 2015 at 8:17 pm

        As for NZ1st and Greens working together. No it ain’t gonna happen. But pretty much everything Little has done since becoming Labour leader indicates that he’s working towards a Labour/NZ1st arrangement with the Greens boxed in on his left flank.

        • weka 8.1.2.1
          25 March 2015 at 11:08 pm

          Sounds like a plan, and more votes from Labour to the Greens as people see Labour yet again not taking the Green issues seriously.

          • Craig H 8.1.2.1.1
            25 March 2015 at 11:22 pm

            I personally would like to see a Green/Labour coalition that made NZ a much better place and won over the populace to that way of working, but if Labour centres a bit and rips a stack of National votes away while losing votes to the Greens on the left, then it will still be better than if National win again.

            • Clemgeopin 8.1.2.1.1.1
              25 March 2015 at 11:28 pm

              It is up to the Greens to be pragmatic, give workable, clearly worked out solutions and CONVINCE the voters themselves. Don’t blame Labour for Green’s short comings. That is unfair!

            • Matthew Whitehead 8.1.2.1.1.2
              26 March 2015 at 11:16 pm

              Ultimately that proposition is about who Labour want to be. If Labour are done being a party of working people concerned with broader equality and want to be the middle class advocates in answer to national’s elite advocacy, they can do that, but it would be honest to change the party name at least if they do, and I think it will just end with a similar drift rightwards to what we’ve seen in similar situations- where a party takes over as a strong proponent of the political left and Labour is eventually relegated to the traditional role of New Zealand First- playing at populism and representing the political swing vote who can never decide what they do want, just which of the big two they hate most at that particular moment, or possibly even ending up in coalition with National like what happened with the Liberal and Reform parties.

              At some point Labour will eventually decide where they’re heading after Douglas, it would just be nice if they saved us the time already.

      • Kiwiri - Raided of the Last Shark 8.1.3
        25 March 2015 at 10:46 pm

        From my networks, the sense I’ve got so far is that the Nats do not want to lose the Northland seat. They’ll make the best of the scenario if Winston wins it, but they had not intended and would not want to lose.

  9. North 9
    25 March 2015 at 7:49 pm

    How I just love that superbly erudite, punishingly prime-ministerial rebuke word “plonkers !” It really sits me on my arse. Especially when issued from an Asian capital in discussion of matters of state. Who won’t have missed a thing about Snoopy Dog Dead Eyes…..

    Wouldn’t it be a total hoot if in the diplomatique of whichever Asian capital it was, “plonkers” translates thus – “I’m an entitled buffoon who’s shitting his pants about Northland !” ?

  10. geoff 10
    25 March 2015 at 7:52 pm

    Will this give National the perfect excuse to forge a relationship with winnie to help secure them a 4th term? Might the Labour end up being the biggest loser out of this?

    I’m just parroting a line i heard from Hooton and mike williams but they may have a point.

    • Anne 10.1
      25 March 2015 at 7:56 pm

      I think it was Hooton’s line. Williams just agreed.

      • hoom 10.1.1
        25 March 2015 at 8:07 pm

        What, Williams agree with Hooten?! Never! I’m so utterly surprised that would ever happen

      • Skinny 10.1.2
        25 March 2015 at 10:22 pm

        Don’t be fooled this sample poll works in favour of National ‘not Peters’ Joyce will be over the moon thinking sucker voters have swallowed this its all over bar the shouting bullshit. The Nat’s will turn their voters out and be hoping gullible anti nat supporters don’t bother fronting up to vote, and thanks to Paddy Gower and headlines like this they probably won’t in sufficient numbers.

        Do the correct thing TRP and don’t in anyway play into this narrative. Speaking to Willow Jean earlier today she says the Nat’s have a huge on the ground team, where as Peters has very few. How about posting a cautionary note ‘let’s not count our chickens’ the last thing we want as a collective is Joyce punching through against the odds.

        Yeah I will be with Prime and Little rooting for Peters to bring it on home 🙂

        • weka 10.1.2.1
          25 March 2015 at 11:10 pm

          I also thought it a tad early to call the election

          • Skinny 10.1.2.1.1
            25 March 2015 at 11:20 pm

            I just caught the last news on tv3 where Key appeared overly smug when saying we are the under dog. He knows Farrars polling says they are in this fight for Northland and a complacent anti nat voter base who don’t bother fronting up over the next few days will steal victory right under our nose. The votes so far would be 2 thirds to them and if the voting public don’t bother turning up in high enough numbers he wins. And just watch the laughing if the 10 % polling for Prime shows it was the difference.

            • Pasupial 10.1.2.1.1.1
              26 March 2015 at 12:07 am

              The thing I liked about that TV3 piece was this particular twist of the screw by Peters:

              Today Mr Peters used a Paihia Street meeting to announce a policy on sex abuse – a big issue in Northland.

              “We will remove name suppression from paedophiles when the victim or the victims have not requested it or are asking for it to be removed,” he says.

              http://www.3news.co.nz/nznews/northland-by-election-peters-way-out-in-front-2015032518

              But yes; National will be fighting this one down to the wire. I wouldn’t be surprised to learn that those who don’t look like the right type of people are finding it very difficult to cast an advance vote in some booths. Scrutineers on the day will be essential!

              • Murray Rawshark …
                26 March 2015 at 1:49 am

                There were plenty of stories from Northland about the difficulty of Maori electors voting. Arthur Harawira has said he closed down a booth in Kaikohe that didn’t have Maori roll voting papers. Other Maori voters were told they had to travel tens of kilometres to vote on the Maori roll at a particular booth.

                Under Key, I wouldn’t put anything past NAct. They are a criminal organisation.

              • Skinny …
                26 March 2015 at 10:20 am

                It appears the word is the other party in this matter wants the suppression lifted and always did. How bad is that shows this is an attempted cover up to protect who and what organisation their linked too.

    • Bearded Git 10.2
      25 March 2015 at 9:27 pm

      @geoff The problem with this theory is Winston genuinely hates Key..and Joyce…and Groser…etc etc. I really don’t think he likes the direction Key has taken National.

    • DS 10.3
      25 March 2015 at 9:31 pm

      Nah. If National loses the seat this Saturday, they’ll throw the kitchen sink at trying to get it back in 2017. For his part, Winston knows that he represented the collective anti-National vote in Northland – any accommodation with the Nats would doom him (the Nats would never do an Epsom deal with him).

    • Clemgeopin 10.4
      25 March 2015 at 10:28 pm

      That actually is a good and valid thinking. Time will tell.

  11. ScottGN 11
    25 March 2015 at 8:09 pm

    Bloody Claire Trevett never fails does she? Her Herald piece about the poll highlights the trust question and minimizes the stonking lead Winston has built up over the course of the campaign. She really is a Nactoid sycophant.

  12. Ovid 12
    25 March 2015 at 8:15 pm

    If there’s anything I’ve learnt from the electoral landscape over the past 6 months it’s that I have no idea what I’m talking about. In the General, I thought that Labour would get a surge from Cunliffe and advance votes would favour the Left.

    In Northland, I thought you could put a blue rosette on an inanimate carbon rod and have it romp home easily. Maybe I should start applying some counter-intuitive thinking to my political analysis.

    • Bearded Git 12.1
      25 March 2015 at 9:32 pm

      @ Ovid Love your honesty. I too screwed up with the Cunliffe factor/result (though I would argue that without the Fuck John Key video he might have been PM) but as soon as Winston stood I was convinced in this climate (where the Nats have looked like arrogant plonkers since the election) he would win.

      There is no way back for the Nats from 34-54. It’s all over.

      • Clemgeopin 12.1.1
        25 March 2015 at 11:10 pm

        “though I would argue that without the Fuck John Key video he might have been PM”

        * I suspect that FJK chant was engineered by Crosby-Textor and the young Nats, and not by KDC, as per reports at that time.

        * Cunliffe made some innocent though unwise comments that were exploited to the full by the Nats and the media.

        * The failure of the much anticipated but un-eventuated ‘moment of Truth’ episode costs votes for the opposition and strengthened National.

        * The failure of Labour and the other opposition parties to support Internet-Mana in TTK or Waiariki. Labour should have either put Kelvin Davies higher up on their list if he was infespensable or should have strategically sacrificed him during the campaign for the greater good. There should also have been strategic seat adjustment in Ōhāriu and a few other marginal electorates, as is wise and sensible in the MMP system. It is NOT FFP!

        * A couple of days before the election, there were many suspected terrorist raids of Muslims in Australia. I suspect part of the ‘motive and timing’ was engineered by Abbott to help dilute and offset the disclosure of wholesale electronic surveillance here by Edward Snowden & co, to help the five Eyes Key/RW National to win.

        • Lanthanide 12.1.1.1
          26 March 2015 at 9:00 am

          Given the actual result, Winston would have gone with National anyway – he’d have been mad not too.

          • Clemgeopin 12.1.1.1.1
            26 March 2015 at 10:53 am

            “Given the actual result, Winston would have gone with National anyway”

            Even that scenario would have been better than the present situation because Winston would have been able to apply some reasonable control over the crazy anti NZ, anti worker, pro wealthy, pro corporate policies of this Nasty RW National government propped up by the lousy lapdogs, Seymour, Dunne and the other two selfish MParty hypocrites now.

            Apart from that, by NZF joining National, both National as well as NZF would have been electorally weakened over time because of that.

            • Lanthanide 12.1.1.1.1.1
              26 March 2015 at 10:55 am

              Yes, it would be a better outcome right now. But it would also have made a 2017 Labour – NZ First coalition harder.

              • Matthew Whitehead …
                26 March 2015 at 11:26 pm

                You say that like it’s a bad thing in the long term.

                NZ First can and should sit on the cross bench eventually. While I don’t object to leveraging the populist support they have on issues that genuinely matter, they’re not a reliable ally to the left in any meaningful sense, and they enable racists and people who don’t have any political values in thinking they have some sort of political legitimacy.

                I look forward to the day when enough of their voters change their minds and are convinced to vote for someone sensible.

                • lprent …
                  26 March 2015 at 11:45 pm

                  Dreams are free. But it is a self-renewing audience. So I wouldn’t hold your breath.

                • Colonial Rawshark …
                  27 March 2015 at 12:22 am

                  they’re not a reliable ally to the left in any meaningful sense, and they enable racists and people who don’t have any political values in thinking they have some sort of political legitimacy.

                  1) So who do you consider to be a “reliable ally to the left”? Certainly not Labour?

                  2) How is it that you get to judge who has and hasn’t got “political values”? You don’t think Labour and Greens have thoughtless, uninformed, or misinformed voters vote for them? And if a party gets close on 10% of the popular vote then why would you not agree that it has “some sort of political legitimacy” or I’d be worried about what your conception of “democracy” actually is.

                  3) As for racist attitudes. Remind me which parties in Parliament have no East Asian, SE Asian or South Asian MPs please. Zero. Nada. None. 3.5B people live in that part of the world. Exactly how many MPs do the Greens and Labour have who hail from that way? At least the National Party and NZ First made an effort.

                • Lanthanide …
                  27 March 2015 at 9:07 am

                  “You say that like it’s a bad thing in the long term.”

                  You suggest that being in power is the only thing that matters.

                  I’m more interested in the outcome for the country. I think a Labour + NZFirst coalition will do less damage to the country than a National or National + NZFirst coalition. The sooner we get the former, the better the country will be in the longterm. Therefore a victory in 2014 for Nat + NZFirst that helped secure a repeat Nat + NZFirst coalition in 2017 is worse for the country than a Labour + NZFirst coalition in 2017.

    • Lanthanide 12.2
      25 March 2015 at 11:02 pm

      I think an inanimate carbon rod would have more electoral appeal than Mark Osborne. It wouldn’t open it’s mouth, for example.

    • Draco T Bastard 12.3
      27 March 2015 at 12:10 am

      In Northland, I thought you could put a blue rosette on an inanimate carbon rod and have it romp home easily.

      Blue Northland effectively got the choice of a blue animate carbon blob or a traditional blue Winston Peters and, unsurprisingly really, chose Winston. Northland had been a safe National seat for 70+ years and National had gotten into the habit of taking them for granted and the Northlanders knew it. I figure that Osborne was no more than a seat warmer until the next general election when National would be more able to helicopter someone else in.

      As soon as Winston put his name in the hat against National’s carbon blob it was a fait accompli. If Winston does well we can expect Northland to change parties sometime next century. I expect him to do well for the people of Northland.

  13. georgy 13
    25 March 2015 at 8:37 pm

    The reason this “buy-election” is such a disaster is because national reached a stage where they actually believed their own spin, and believed all they had to do was repeat it for this campaign.

  14. Michael who failed Civics 14
    25 March 2015 at 8:48 pm

    Nats out in Northland. That’s all that matters.

  15. Will 15
    25 March 2015 at 9:03 pm

    I’m a rare breed here in that I’m a National supporter (I don’t support everything they do but I think that JK and his team have done a better job than any alternative could have so please refrain from any needless vilification and abuse for expressing an alternate political view. And yes I know why Sabin resigned and think he should swallow a bullet) but the Nats have absolutely monumentally stuffed this one up and I think Winston winning will be a good thing. Hopefully it jolts them out of what seems to be a bad case of third-term-itis so they can start doing a much better job of governing (not once would I suggest that they’ve been anywhere close to good, they’ve become incredibly complacent). If they don’t take the hint then they’re likely to lose many many voters come 2017. If they do, it could do them a world of good… A very intriguing election indeed…

    • mickysavage 15.1
      25 March 2015 at 10:06 pm

      I agree with a lot of what you say Will but I think the third termitis is terminal …

      • Skinny 15.1.1
        25 March 2015 at 10:55 pm

        Do you think Key cares 2 hoots, once the third term blues looks terminal he is off and gone. There isn’t a month that goes by where a private jet turns up with a suit and an offer for him to take up.

        I have to laugh Labour sends a beltway idiot up north to oversee Primes campaign who’s only line is I’m from Fraser House. Ffs he left people thinking what a tweep.

      • Draco T Bastard 15.1.2
        27 March 2015 at 12:12 am

        It’s not third termitis but National’s inherent arrogance and stupidity showing.

    • Weepus beard 15.2
      25 March 2015 at 10:09 pm

      How do you know they have done a better job than any alternative could have?

      We hear this a lot from right wingers but never hear the analysis to back it up.

      • One Anonymous Bloke 15.2.1
        26 March 2015 at 2:40 pm

        That’s because the ‘argument’ can’t stand up to any analysis stronger than a spell check.

  16. NZSage 16
    25 March 2015 at 9:15 pm

    … and as I pointed out on a previous thread, Key has already stated publically that Northland will get their bridges even if National lose so Northland may well get their cake and eat it!

    All we need is a Black Caps win and this could be a very special weekend!

  17. Dont worry. Be happy 17
    25 March 2015 at 9:29 pm

    Dear Mr Peters, good good luck on the day and more power to your elbow in Parliament as the new MP, by a landslide, for Northland. The voters will send this immoral bunch of robbers a message and you, sir, are just the man to deliver it

  18. Picard101 18
    25 March 2015 at 9:39 pm

    I really want to believe Winston is going to win, but I just cannot shake the feeling National will snap it up on the day. Lord I hope I’m wrong and Winnie brings it home.

  19. philj 19
    25 March 2015 at 9:52 pm

    Winning the pooh, rains on the Nasties parade. Winston may bring National back to its true roots, rather than extreme neo liberal policies of the current mobsters.

  20. les 20
    25 March 2015 at 10:03 pm

    still think the Natz will sneak back in..fingers crossed they dont though.

    • Colonial Rawshark 20.1
      25 March 2015 at 10:17 pm

      With Focus NZ endorsing Peters, I think the NATs have a much harder road than they did a week ago.

  21. fisiani 21
    25 March 2015 at 10:21 pm

    I’ve said all along it will be Winston by 2,000 votes

    • Weepus beard 21.1
      25 March 2015 at 10:28 pm

      From memory, you work in the phone booths for the National party (kind of telemarketing, hah ha), and are based in the lower Hutt Valley. Have you been asked to cold-call Northland residents during this campaign?

    • Pasupial 21.2
      25 March 2015 at 11:21 pm

      fisiani

      Your lies are as transparent as those of your broken idol – dishonest John:

      fisiani: Comment:Winston: We Will Fight Them on The Beaches of Northland!
      Date published: 2:00 pm, February 27th, 2015

      Winston cannot even vote for himself.
      If he wins the number of Northland MP’s remains the same and we get an extra one from Invercargill.
      He just wants a platform for a few weeks to outshine Andrew Little. The Greens as always are just cowards.

      fisiani: Comment:Key crosses a bridge too far
      Date published: 12:52 pm, March 12th, 2015

      With the shonky electoral deal for Labour voters to abandon the Labour candidate and vote for Winston Peters reeking of hypocrisy it is great to see the huge effort by the National Team to impress the value of keeping Northland true and Blue.

      fisiani: Comment:Early heavy voting in Northland
      Date published: 7:32 pm, March 13th, 2015

      It’s not gambling ya numpty. It’s a predictions market. Insider knowledge is allowed and the smart money is on Osbourne to win. If you think the smart people are wrong then put your money on your PREDICTION. It’s not a gamble.

      fisiani: Comment:Can National lose Northland?
      Date published: 1:07 pm, March 23rd, 2015

      If you look at Ipredict the chance of Osbourne winning are just 28%. I expect Winston to get a 2,000 majority.

      The day before yesterday is not; “all along”.

      • Murray Rawshark 21.2.1
        26 March 2015 at 1:56 am

        This fizzy has only had the login and password for two days.

        • Lanthanide 21.2.1.1
          26 March 2015 at 9:02 am

          Yeah, fizzy’s style does seem to change over time, I wouldn’t be surprised if it were a shared login of some sort.

          • mac1 21.2.1.1.1
            26 March 2015 at 10:12 am

            That would explain the consistent refusal to answer comments. “It was one of the other fellers that made them!”

            Bit like Key really, with his different hats.

      • the pigman 21.2.2
        26 March 2015 at 2:53 am

        Good work, Pasupial. Glad someone was prepared to descend into this guy’s labyrinth of delusion to locate the small kernel of truth.

        Guess amnesia has reached epidemic levels among the National foot soldiers… the rot starts at the top and trickles down a long way, eventually settling like scum on the debased bottom-feeders.

  22. katipo 22
    25 March 2015 at 10:48 pm

    Intersting watching Amy Adams on Fair-Go tonight atempting to put a positive spin on the reduction in balifs that’s legislated to occur shortly in Northland (and other regions). The show pointed out how this contrasted with the election lollies currently being promised.

  23. millsy 23
    26 March 2015 at 1:06 am

    I wouldnt pop the chardonnay until 10pm Saturday night.

    Meanwhile at the same time across the Tasman, we get to see if NSW essentially votes to keep its power network. Rather like Queensland voting to to keep their stuff 2 months ago.

  24. Stuart Munro 24
    26 March 2015 at 8:54 am

    I hope someone is watching those ballot papers – Groser is not the only cheat in National.

  25. freedom 25
    26 March 2015 at 9:22 am

    http://www.radionz.co.nz/audio/player/20172429

    “RNZ: Is your own polling showing Mark Osborne behind?

    PM: I haven’t seen a poll for a good ten days or so…. ”
    😆 😆 😆

    • Ffloyd 25.1
      26 March 2015 at 10:52 am

      That was funny! Is it on Blips list yet?

      • freedom 25.1.1
        26 March 2015 at 10:59 am

        He was being asked as PM. So I’m guessing the Leader of the National Party has seen the polls but the PM had no idea what the polls said 🙂

  26. Brutus Iscariot 26
    26 March 2015 at 10:19 am

    Yet Key has referred to Osborne as the “underdog”.

    Fairly unusual for the candidate from the ruling party, with practically unlimited resources and a 9000 majority to be considered the underdog.

    Sounds more like a “choke” to me.

    • mac1 26.1
      26 March 2015 at 11:13 am

      Nah, part of the “They’re all ganging up on me” meme.

      But Key still won’t tell voters truly why they’re having a by-election in the first place.

  27. rod 27
    26 March 2015 at 2:22 pm

    Get ready for a National Party stunt up north, today or tomorrow. plenty of cameras up there already,

  28. Clemgeopin 28
    26 March 2015 at 3:01 pm

    Wikipedia has already called the by-election for Winston.

    Look at the appropriate colour they have used for Northland here!

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northland_%28New_Zealand_electorate%29#/media/File:Northland_electorate,_2014.svg

    • Clemgeopin 28.1
      26 March 2015 at 3:19 pm

      Here is my armchair guesstimated prediction of the result on Saturday:

      Winston = 58%
      Osborne =32%
      WJ Prime =09%

      • te reo putake 28.1.1
        26 March 2015 at 4:04 pm

        I reckon you’re optimistic. My guess is Winston 45%, Osborne 42, Prime 10, others 3. I think the early voting is pretty much all Nats, so they have a base to build on and if their on the ground organisation holds up on election day, then they will deliver into the forties without any real problem. What will carry it for Winston is late enrolments, which will significantly favour him.

        I wouldn’t be entirely surprised if we don’t have a result on the night, either.

  29. Sookie 29
    26 March 2015 at 5:44 pm

    I have misgivings about voting for Winston. He’s a loveable rogue but I have never gotten over 1996. However I haven’t been able to make a satisfying and hearty fuck you National vote for over 6 years. It feels good to vote for a winner for a change.

  30. mac1 30
    26 March 2015 at 11:58 pm

    Key has returned early to Northland from his Asian tour to help get Osborne into the House?

    Jimi Hendrix had something to say about this.

    “Wait a minute, there’s something wrong. This Key won’t unlock the door.”

    “Red House” 1966

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