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Open mike 01/02/2020

Written By: - Date published: 7:00 am, February 1st, 2020 - 68 comments
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Open mike is your post.

For announcements, general discussion, whatever you choose.

The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy).

Step up to the mike …

68 comments on “Open mike 01/02/2020 ”

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  1. James 1
    1 February 2020 at 8:14 am

    Happy Brexit day all.

    Boris has done an amazing job getting this over the line and out smarting remoaners.

    this will be his legacy and it will be a good one.

  2. A 2
    1 February 2020 at 8:39 am

    Cover off the basic prep…2 months food, bleach, toilet paper, flu meds, prescription meds….imho the risk is now too high to ignore (even if this is not peer reviewed yet). Still time to get in before the herd.

      • Cinny 2.1.1
        1 February 2020 at 11:23 am

        Am hoping The Listening Post will do a story on the media coverage of the virus tonight. Fingers crossed. Roll on 9.30pm, I love that show.

      • Poission 2.1.2
        1 February 2020 at 12:09 pm

        And the insert protein in cov,is not present in other cov,an has significant similarity to HIV.

        The finding of 4 unique inserts in the 2019-nCoV, all of which have identity /similarity to amino acid residues in key structural proteins of HIV-1 is unlikely to be fortuitous in nature.

        https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.30.927871v1.full.pdf

        • RedLogix 2.1.2.1
          1 February 2020 at 3:23 pm

          And concluding with the sentences:

          Taken together, our findings suggest unconventional evolution of 2019-nCoV that warrants further investigation. Our work highlights novel evolutionary aspects of the 2019-nCoV and has implications on the pathogenesis and diagnosis of this virus.

          The phrase 'unconventional evolution' is intentionally vague; I wonder what they really want to say.

          • Poission 2.1.2.1.1
            1 February 2020 at 4:41 pm

            Shouldn't jump to conclusions,to quickly as it seems the virus is also a fast mutator.

            According to Lai, RNA viruses—viruses that have RNA as their genetic material rather than DNA—such as the Wuhan coronavirus and SARS, have a “high mutation rate,” which allows it to “change properties very quickly.”

            As an example, in the Lancet study, the RNA sequences isolated from 6 patients from the same household are different from each other, he noted. Lai said he observed in his previous research the “frequent occurrence of RNA recombination between different coronavirus strains,” a sign of the virus evolving.

            https://www.theepochtimes.com/china-underreporting-true-scale-of-deadly-viral-outbreak-expert-says_3218207.html

            It may have passed through HIV affected patients at some stage whose weakened immune response allowed for differential mutation.

            Interesting that the PRC authorities are using aids drugs as a treatment option.

      • pat 2.1.3
        1 February 2020 at 8:14 pm

        "As influenza is caused by a variety of species and strains of viruses, in any given year some strains can die out while others create epidemics, while yet another strain can cause a pandemic. Typically, in a year's normal two flu seasons (one per hemisphere), there are between three and five million cases of severe illness and around 650,000 deaths worldwide,"

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza

        For measles, the number (R0) is much larger: between 12 and 18.

        https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/roots-of-unity/understand-the-measles-outbreak-with-this-one-weird-number/

        • Poission 2.1.3.1
          1 February 2020 at 9:36 pm

          the mathematicians disagree.

          • pat 2.1.3.1.1
            1 February 2020 at 10:14 pm

            the mathematicians disagree with what?……that influenza kills approximately 650,000 in an average year?…or that the R nought ratio for measles is between 12 and 18?

            • Poission 2.1.3.1.1.1
              2 February 2020 at 10:55 am

              Their argument is the lag ,it is biased downwards being fat tailed (with cv) so comparisons with average qualities do not hold.

              https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1221486205847646208/photo/1

              • pat …
                2 February 2020 at 12:06 pm

                so neither is disputed…thats as expected as the analysis is performed by statisticians.

                The argument is the timing and environment (two variables) that potentially make comparisons pointless….it is reasonable to expect that the initial R0 value will be higher due to a lack of awareness and/or precaution, then there is the lag in reporting and analysis and also environmental differences.

                All reasonable assumptions, however the point was not the accuracy of comparisons but the fact that any exponential increase is of concern, especially the longer the period of inaction continues….whether 2-3 or 4.08 or higher. It would also be reasonable to expect that R value to fall now that (some) precautions are being implemented

                The virus in Wuhan had at least a five week start before any action was taken and has already spread outside the initial area, unsurprising given that China has a large mobile population living in many instances in close interaction, and given the fact that in has 140 million international visitors per annum and the incubation period is measured in many days….the horse has bolted.

                As the RNZ interviewed virologist noted its too late to contain the virus and the best chance is to develop a vaccine and distribute it as quickly as possible and any action taken now is to prevent as much spread as possible to buy time for that event…..the virus now exists and humans will have to learn to cope with it as they do influenza and measles. Did we call for Auckland to be quarantined during the recent measles epidemic, or Samoa even?

                Hysterics around closing boarders (for how long?) and contagion rates that are fairly typical (added to what appears a fairly low mortality rate) serve no purpose….indeed such a reaction has the potential to produce far more death and misery as vital supplies for large portions of the population become harder to obtain

    • weka 2.2
      1 February 2020 at 9:51 am

      "2 months food, bleach, toilet paper, flu meds, prescription meds"

      Most NZers should have that for quake prep anyway.

      "Still time to get in before the herd."

      You planning to go into isolation/quarrantine? 😉

      Someone that puts New Massive Contagion Risk in capitals on the front of their youtube is probably to be avoided. He's fear mongering, even if he's getting some details right.

      • A 2.2.1
        1 February 2020 at 4:15 pm

        I've been following him for years. He has a PhD in pathology from Duke, speciality in toxins, sub-speciality neurotoxins.

        Buying extra stuff that will get used later on anyway has little down side. Flu stuff I've brought costs less than $20 and that may not get used so might be given away. Twenty bucks to insure my safety. Hardly an over reaction.

        And yeah…people should have these kinds of preperations anyway, but they don’t. I could be because they moved and donated stuff they didn’t replace, ran out of money and used their stores, or maybe couldn’t afford them in the first place. But most people just don’t do it. They could handle a week and beyond that it’s iffy

    • A 2.3
      1 February 2020 at 9:58 pm

      Over the ditch Oz closes border to non Australians from China, or their immediate family. We need to follow this or they might come here..we are awfully handy.

      Isolation for 14 days is required for those returning to Aussie.

  3. Sanctuary 3
    1 February 2020 at 8:47 am

    How much space does the UK leaving the EU free up?

    1GB.

    If you want anymore, I'll just be over by the BBQ with the other dads wearing Hawaiian shirts.

  4. Dennis Frank 4
    1 February 2020 at 9:39 am

    Spinoff discusses media reform in Aotearoa: "A plan is in the works to transform state broadcasting in New Zealand, with some form of merger between TVNZ and Radio NZ on the cards." https://thespinoff.co.nz/the-bulletin/31-01-2020/the-bulletin-concerns-grow-in-public-media-merger-information-void/

    "the story was first broken by Radio NZ political editor Jane Patterson, and she provided this update about cabinet forging ahead with the work, with a goal to having it up and running by 2023. It would primarily be a public-service broadcaster, which is relevant because of the potential for culture clash between the purely non-commercial RNZ and commercial TVNZ network. But it could also have a mixed funding model, with some revenue coming from commercial sources."

    And "as Radio NZ’s Charlie Dreaver reports, criticism is mounting in the information vacuum. That’s partly because there is some commercial sensitivity in whatever gets decided, but as Victoria University media professor Peter Thompson put it, knowing what’s in the blueprint would allow the public to actually discuss what could happen."

    What strikes me is the lack of conceptual advance on what we've had the past 30-odd years, but perhaps that's why Faafoi was sent back to the drawing board by cabinet in December.

    "RNZ has also been told the amended proposal puts a specific emphasis on the fact the new company will be primarily a public service media outlet, and to ensure that is made crystal clear in any legislation, and through a charter. That would also help to alleviate some of the strongly expressed concerns some ministers had about a "culture clash" – namely the risk the public broadcasting ethos could be subsumed by an aggressive commercial imperative once the new company was established and operating in the media marketplace." https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/408355/new-details-revealed-as-cabinet-agrees-on-rnz-tvnz-public-broadcasting-decision

    So this thing will hinge on the viability of a new design, in which the balance between the public interest and the necessity of sensible economy in the management of the media is appropriate. I see no reason why both left & right cannot be satisfied simultaneously. The only reason that hasn't happened before is both bunches of jerks being lazy and performing poorly all the time.

    • Ad 4.1
      1 February 2020 at 10:51 am

      Honestly this just look alike another one of those government projects that was inevitable that they would have a go at, and almost inevitable that it would take multiple parliamentary terms to get anywhere if at all.

      We already have Maori television, which has plenty of public subsidy as well as advertising.

      TVNZ is so awful in achieving any public good benefit that it needs to die. So why don't they just let it?

      I don't see any need to tamper with RNZ. It’s evolving just fine.

      It will be very interesting to see how this business case evolves, but I am very skeptical.

      • millsy 4.1.1
        1 February 2020 at 11:56 am

        TVNZ is going to die, and be replaced by something else under the proposal.

        Though I think restarting TVNZ6 and TVNZ7 is probably the way to go. It was a real shame that National had those channels chopped, they were the closest thing that NZ would have to true public TV.

    • OnceWasTim 4.2
      1 February 2020 at 12:42 pm

      What's a little depressing about this 'project' is that the various 'stakeholders' involved all have their own vested interests and don't seem to include "the public" unless one is prepared to get involved with lobby groups. (I was at one time and still admire the efforts of the likes of Peter Thompson, Miles? and Co – but never really thought it was ambitious enough).

      For a population of 5 mill (and on that basis we hear the continued harping that means PSB is unaffordable and difficult ro achieve), the whole system is completely over-managed (last count about 7 different agencies involved complete with their enterage of Directors, Board members, CEO's et al)

      A lot of it is really down to political will, and possibly the fact that even if something half-decent gets implemented, you can be sure that if & when a new junta gets elected (with its commitment to the market the market, growth growth, demography and risk management), it'll immediately seek to destroy it.

      And I fear we’re probably just going to see another exodus of those who’ve given up in despair. Shame to see Jane Wrightson go in many ways. Al Jazeera will probably be spoiled for choice

  5. Dennis Frank 5
    1 February 2020 at 10:06 am

    About 18 months ago, the New Yorker reported on resurgent tribalism: "We live in a time of tribes. Not of ideologies, parties, groups, or beliefs—these don’t convey the same impregnability of political fortifications, or the yawning chasms between them. American politics today requires a word as primal as “tribe” to get at the blind allegiances and huge passions of partisan affiliation." https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/a-new-report-offers-insights-into-tribalism-in-the-age-of-trump

    "Tribes demand loyalty, and in return they confer the security of belonging. They’re badges of identity, not of thought. In a way, they make thinking unnecessary, because they do it for you, and may punish you if you try to do it for yourself. To get along without a tribe makes you a fool. To give an inch to the other tribe makes you a sucker."

    "More in Common, a research organization based in Europe and the United States, released a report called “Hidden Tribes: A Study of America’s Polarized Landscape.” It builds on the group’s prior work in France, Germany, and Italy—an effort to understand and counteract rising populism and fragmentation in the Western democracies. Throughout the past year, the report’s four authors surveyed eight thousand randomly chosen Americans, asking questions about “core beliefs”: moral values, attitudes toward parenting and personal responsibility, perceptions of threats, approaches to group identity. The authors then sorted people, based on their beliefs and values, into seven “tribes”: Progressive Activists, Traditional Liberals, Passive Liberals, Politically Disengaged, Moderates, Traditional Conservatives, Devoted Conservatives."

    So what we have here is an attempt at more sophisticated political analysis. We know the Dems & Reps are now functioning more like tribes than political parties. The question is why this morphing has occurred. The theory of the researchers needs to explain how seven organic tribes coalesce into the two archaic parties.

    "More in Common found that “tribal membership predicts differences in Americans’ views on various political issues better than demographic, ideological, and partisan groupings.” In other words, whether or not you think creativity is more important than good behavior in children is a better indicator of your political views than is your gender, your race, your income, or your party affiliation."

    “We have too much opinion research and not enough value research,” according to Tim Dixon, an Australian political activist and a founder of More in Common.

    "This is why the seven tribes are hidden. We’re used to seeing race, gender, region, religion, and other categories line up with political preferences in numbingly predictable ways. We rarely know the underlying world views that inform these opinions. The tribes in the report are different from the rigid and unchanging partisan monoliths of our national political debate… Away from the fun-house mirrors and the bullhorns of cable news and social media, people’s views are more nuanced and less easy to caricature. For example, eighty-one per cent of those interviewed believe that racism is a serious problem, but eighty-five per cent think that race should not be a factor in college admissions."

    "The 8% of Progressive Activists on the left and the 25% of Traditional and Devoted Conservatives on the right are less open to compromise, less ideologically flexible".

    Together they constitute a hardline third of the electorate. The majority two-thirds want compromise, and are fed-up with the parties. So the system has warped away from most people, to serve only the rabid left/right ideologues. No wonder anti-establishment feeling has escalated so much.

    • Ad 5.1
      1 February 2020 at 10:54 am

      Facebook enables us to form our own tribes, and we seem pretty good about it given its popularity.

      Ardern has about 700,000 Facebook followers and about 400,000 on Twitter. So social media is easily obliterating the tribal micro-distinctions, and ordinary politics here appears to be evolving just fine.

      • Sanctuary 5.1.1
        1 February 2020 at 11:04 am

        "…Ardern has about 700,000 Facebook followers…"

        I heard Hooton squarking this figure on the radio the other day.

        I took from it that he isn't her friend on her actual FB page.

    • Sacha 5.2
      1 February 2020 at 12:06 pm

      That is just the same old political single-axis spectrum. Seems novel only because the US has a rigid two-party structure.

      I found this NZ approach some years ago more interesting even though it comes from marketing people: https://www.8tribes.co.nz/tribe-summary.php

      Try the list of questions on their 'Find Your Tribe' page.

      • Dennis Frank 5.2.1
        1 February 2020 at 12:17 pm

        Yeah, I recall encountering that & identifying with Raglan, although a second look suggests I really have one foot in Cuba St – which, since I've always been averse to Wellingtonians, makes me feel quite uneasy… 🥶

        • OnceWasTim 5.2.1.1
          1 February 2020 at 1:35 pm

          You could always move to Lyttleton – there's elements of all 8 tribes there it seems to me. Pick a day, pick a tribe

          • Dennis Frank 5.2.1.1.1
            1 February 2020 at 1:58 pm

            Multicultural then, huh? What about you – identify with any of those 8? As Sacha observed, the 7-fold scheme featured by the New Yorker is just across the old linear axis, whereas the kiwi one seems more ethnic (ethnologists would no doubt point out that I'm using the term incorrectly, so I plead guilty in advance).

            • OnceWasTim 5.2.1.1.1.1
              1 February 2020 at 3:29 pm

              Bits and pieces of the last four I guess. It's changed over time having had to be amongst the first four (North Shore, Grey Lynn, Balclutha and Remmers ).

              That's not to say I'm a bit iffy about the Raglan tribe – just because often self-interest can take precedence.

              Probably up to others to give an opinion of me though. And when the North Shore tribe meet their maker, I'm not sure what it is they'll actually have 'achieved' other than the superficial

              • Dennis Frank …
                1 February 2020 at 4:30 pm

                Interesting, quite a mix. Traditional framing: "a well-rounded person". I do share the ethos of North Shore & Balclutha with you (probably due to boyhood in suburban New Plymouth in a heartland family).

                Not Remmers, and only the front part of Grey Lynn: "highly educated intelligentsia who value ideas above material things" since the other part of GL is pretentious/superficial.

                Although Wellingtonians are probably less the petty bureaucrats nowadays than they once were (boring conformists), Aucklanders are still just as shallow as ever (crass commercial). Bruce Jesson got it right with his mirror-glass framing. My circle of friends there are all alternative thinkers from the seventies and I suspect there's plenty more in Ak that I don't know personally. Acclimatised to the rat-race, the bullshit just rolls off them…

                Other peer-group affiliations from the past were identity-based too, and each co-created a culture that one could call tribal. The sixties rebels, the counter-culture. The hand-shake got replaced by the hug. Almost entirely apolitical. You can see why the Greens who emerged from that as a minority strand view today's Greens as somewhat alien life-forms..

                • OnceWasTim …
                  1 February 2020 at 4:46 pm

                  What would be quite an interesting post/thread would be to take the 8 tribes, and have commenters from The Standard develop each of the definitions further.

                  As in:

                  "The Grey Lynn Tribe – Intellectual
                  The highly educated intelligentsia who value ideas above material things and intellectualise every element of their lives. Their most prized possession is a painting by the artist of the moment, they frequent film festivals, feel guilty about discussing property values and deep down are uneasy about their passion for reality television………..

                  ………. the urban equivalent of Martinborough; though guilty about discussing property values and watching reality television, not averse to seeing investment gains or being addicted to Coronation Street; also not averse to a bit of name-dropping (such as my neighbour is JC) from time to time, or being a regular guest on "the Panel" with Wallace.

                  But I'd also suggest that any commenter should also have to write a self-criticism. I'll do mine a bit later – ankle biter to look after and amuse – but it'll go along the lines of "I can be a bit of a pratt at times"

      • Andre 5.2.2
        1 February 2020 at 12:22 pm

        Their "find your tribe" thingy reckons I'm Grey Lynn. Which, by their description and acquaintance with some actual Grey Lynn residents, is a group I actively dislike.

        • Sacha 5.2.2.1
          1 February 2020 at 12:27 pm

          It's the Grey Lynn of twenty years ago, I reckon. One that more people could afford to live in.

      • RedLogix 5.2.3
        1 February 2020 at 1:21 pm

        This has been around for quite a while now, and I think it was partly responsible for tilting my interest away from political partisanship towards value based thinking. For what it's worth I'm a roughly even mix of Grey Lynn and Raglan.

        There are lots of these sorts of models, and there is something useful to be taken away from most of them.

    • WeTheBleeple 5.3
      1 February 2020 at 12:27 pm

      Good food for thought. Thanks Dennis.

  6. Cinny 6
    1 February 2020 at 11:38 am

    Jeepers they voting regarding allowing new witnesses.
    Will those repug's stick together for their party or will any 'cross the floor' for the good of the people?

    Edit… the yay’s are 49 and the nay’s are 51.

    Bugger, no new witnesses. They are now going into recess.

    • Andre 6.1
      1 February 2020 at 11:53 am

      Meh.

      There's plenty of Repugs that acknowledge he clearly did it, it's impeachable, but they wouldn't vote for conviction and removal no matter what. Rubio's explanation of this is a real doozy.

      https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/31/politics/marco-rubio-donald-trump-senate-impeachment-trial/index.html

      The witness vote just means they now have to wear voting for a cover-up as well. Right now it's looking fairly likely what Bolton has to say will come dribbling out over the next few months anyway, along with a lot of what other potential witnesses might have said.

      • joe90 6.1.1
        1 February 2020 at 11:58 am

        Former Presidential candidate says it out loud.

        • Sabine 6.1.1.1
          1 February 2020 at 7:07 pm

          well they voted to burn down government as they knew it, they wanted a new order, get rid of the old, yada yada yada, i guess they succeeded.

          now, watch that drive.

          but in saying that, the republicans are the one that can disapear trump in a new york minute by declare the 25th on him. They can. 🙂 But so as long as he signs their tax cuts, their gutting of the social welfare net, the gutting of any environmental laws, the gutting of public schools and universities etc, they will do nothing. He is the hand that signs their laws. He is the hand that will drown government in a bath tub. It took them a few decades but they finally got the hand, and the cheap fuck he is, he is doing for a hand full of dollars that he charges on beds in his winter white house.

          oh well, no one could have forseen this….Right?

      • Dennis Frank 6.1.2
        1 February 2020 at 12:10 pm

        Yeah, but, as is often the case, the subtext may tell the real story. Who would be paranoid about a fundamentalist christian becoming president? Another, who wants to get there first.

        "He received his first communion as a Catholic in 1984 before moving back to Miami with his family a year later. He was confirmed and later married in the Catholic Church." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marco_Rubio

        Pence got born again. Doesn't say that happened to Rubio. That may put him in a different catholic tribe. Regardless, there may be rivalry rather than camaraderie between them.

        • Andre 6.1.2.1
          1 February 2020 at 12:18 pm

          Occam's Razor sez he's just scared of getting primaried by angry Drumpfkins in 2022 if he dares cross their fake-bronze idol.

    • aom 6.2
      1 February 2020 at 12:22 pm

      The Senate vote suggests that two of the three legs of state that were devised to protect democracy in the US have effectively been chopped off. That means???

  7. joe90 7
    1 February 2020 at 11:47 am

    'Murica, a failing state run by militias.

    https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/gunmen-some-in-masks-swarm-ky-capitol-for-2nd-amendment-rally

    • Cinny 7.1
      1 February 2020 at 1:00 pm

      Fork!!!! . And the types in those images also say that those who care about the planet are dangerous… what the actual fuck…dang..

      What that country allows is the meaning of insanity. 'Murica's normality.

      Agent orange has just expanded his travel ban. and I'm wondering how many at the rally in that tweet had strong Christian beliefs.

      Technology has evolved but not their constitution or mentality. Their election will be a stunner.

  8. joe90 8
    1 February 2020 at 12:56 pm

    Marvelous.

    A YouTube prankster seems to have tricked Katie Hopkins into picking up a “completely fake” award following which she delivered an offensive speech that saw her mock Muslims, Asian people and epilepsy sufferers.

    Josh Pieters said the former Apprentice contestant flew to Prague to accept the trophy on Monday (27 January).

    In footage from the “ceremony”, Hopkins – a far-right commentator – can be seen smiling with Pieters in front of a screen bearing the words “Campaign to Unify the Nation Trophy.”

    When she collects the award, the capital letters enlarge, spelling out the C-word.

    “It’s strange to hear nice things being said about yourself,” she can be heard saying.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/tv/news/katie-hopkins-youtube-josh-pieters-prank-fake-award-twitter-video-prague-a9310606.html

  9. joe90 9
    1 February 2020 at 1:10 pm

    Making America Great Again, innocent limb by innocent limb.

    • joe90 9.1
      1 February 2020 at 1:27 pm

      Of course he will.

      • Sabine 9.1.1
        1 February 2020 at 7:10 pm

        have a look at the East German wall, with its no mans lands, its mine fields, its self shooting systems and its not an escalation but a forseable step in the building of a fence that will do more to keep people in then out. As a reminder, the mines, will be on the US American side. Not the mexican side.

        But oh well, her fucking emails, and besides how much harm could he do, and besides we must be understanding of the white male working class with economic anxiety.

        Who would have forseen this shit, oh yeah……….

  10. Andre 10
    1 February 2020 at 4:53 pm

    Joe's most persuasive ad …

  11. joe90 11
    1 February 2020 at 6:41 pm

    Nothing's changed, Frank.

    "Trouble Every Day"

    Well I'm about to get sick
    From watchin' my TV
    Been checkin' out the news
    Until my eyeballs fail to see
    I mean to say that every day
    Is just another rotten mess
    And when it's gonna change, my friend
    Is anybody's guess

  12. joe90 12
    1 February 2020 at 7:06 pm

    Former President of Estonia:

    • Sabine 12.1
      1 February 2020 at 7:14 pm

      nope, now we are ruled by mafia for mafia. the russian mafia, the us mafia, the asian triads, the european mafia etc etc etc, i think we call them the billionaires class.

      I hope everyone who ever had issues with killary and bullshit, will eat crow. a lot of it, and without any seasoning.

    • Andre 12.2
      1 February 2020 at 9:14 pm

      Doubt it.

      As soon as there's a Dem prez again, Repugs will rediscover all over again the writings of Alexander Hamilton, the constitution, oversight and accountability, enforceability of subpoenas and all the rest of it.

      And they will either gaslight the fuck out of what just happened, or pretend it didn’t actually happen.

  13. Incognito 13
    1 February 2020 at 7:40 pm

    No coronavirus in NZ, at least not yet.

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/119206613/no-suspected-coronavirus-in-new-zealand-ministry-of-health-announce

    OTOH, the highly contagious corruptionvirus appears to be spreading unabated.

    • Poission 13.1
      1 February 2020 at 7:55 pm

      It may start to be self sustaining from other nodes (such as Beijing etc)

      Given that 2019-nCoV is no longer contained within Wuhan, other major Chinese cities are probably sustaining localised outbreaks. Large cities overseas with close transport links to China could also become outbreak epicentres, unless substantial public health interventions at both the population and personal levels are implemented immediately. Independent self-sustaining outbreaks in major cities globally could become inevitable because of substantial exportation of presymptomatic cases and in the absence of large-scale public health interventions. Preparedness plans and mitigation interventions should be readied for quick deployment globally.

      https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9/fulltext#%20

      BTW all the journals are open access in regard to papers on CV.

      on the other side oil demand is forecast to fall significantly.

      https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/natural-gas/013120-commodity-markets-weaken-with-equities-as-coronavirus-spreads

      **Platts Analytics worst-case scenario shows a drop of 2.6 million b/d in oil demand in February, and a 2 million b/d decline in March.

      **Platts Analytics best-case scenario shows a drop of 900,0000 b/d in oil demand for February, and a 650,000 b/d decline in March.

      **Platts Analytics best-case scenario shows global jet fuel demand declining by 618,000 b/d in February, while its worst-case scenario shows a decline of 1 million b/d.

  14. Sabine 14
    1 February 2020 at 8:07 pm

    all of this doom and gloom and i found this….

    we live in interesting times.

  15. Fireblade 15
    1 February 2020 at 9:07 pm

    Cypress Hill siz gangsta yo!

    Here's one for the orange POTUS…

    Insane In The Brain

  16. joe90 16
    1 February 2020 at 10:18 pm

    They could've saved themselves time if they’d just taken the stage and chanted MAGA!

    /

  17. sumsuch 17
    2 February 2020 at 2:18 am

    No time left except for main truth, fellow aliases. Though I appreciate all the detailers. Wider picture needs specific evidence. We need a Demosthenes, a Cicero, a Corbyn, a Sanders. A world of talk about reality. Rather than the present local players of the (84) game.

    Even Helen Clark , after leading the charge for the international poor is only up for our teeth. Step up one and all to try for us all NOW. Easy for us in 1935 with nothing to lose for keen worker intelligences. Now there is no money for the truth speakers. 'Meritocracy'. Or paying off the most talented , which has brought us to this silly end. The creatures of post 2000 Labour treat it like a game for their benefit. 35-ists knew their life-long sacrifice, particularly their personal lives. Robert Reid, Sue Bradford, Bernard Hickey, and all the so many rest of the heroes of Aotearoa who've looked 'beyond the money'. Speak and speak again , heroes. Pol scis don't take you seriously but you're our only hope.

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  • Rotuman Language week affirms language as the key to Pacific wellbeing
    The first Pacific Language Week this year  makes it clear that  language is the key to the wellbeing for all Pacific people said Minister for Pacific Peoples, Aupito William Sio. “This round of language  weeks begin with Rotuman. As I have always  said language is one of the pillars of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 hours ago

  • Budget delivers improved cervical and breast cancer screening
    Budget 2021 funds a more effective cervical screening test to help reduce cervical cancer rates A new breast screening system that can proactively identify and enrol eligible women to reach 271,000 more people who aren’t currently in the programme. Budget 2021 delivers a better cervical screening test and a major ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    10 hours ago

  • NZ-France to co-chair Christchurch Call Leaders’ Summit
    New Zealand and France will jointly convene the Christchurch Call Community for a leaders’ summit, to take stock of progress and develop a new shared priority work plan. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and President Emmanuel Macron will co-chair the leaders’ meeting on the 2nd anniversary of the Call, on 14 ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    14 hours ago

  • New South Wales travel pause to be lifted tomorrow
    COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins says the current travel pause with New South Wales will lift tomorrow – subject to no further significant developments in NSW. “New Zealand health officials met today to conduct a further assessment of the public health risk from the recently identified COVID-19 community cases in Sydney. It has been determined that the risk to public ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago

  • March 15 Collective Impact Board appointed
    The voices of those affected by the March 15 mosque attacks will be heard more effectively with the establishment of a new collective impact board, Associate Minister for Social Development and Employment Priyanca Radhakrishnan announced today. Seven members of the Christchurch Muslim community have been appointed to the newly established Board, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago

  • More young Kiwis supported with mental health and addiction services
    Nearly quarter of a million more young New Zealanders will have access to mental health and addiction support in their communities as the Government’s youth mental health programme gathers pace. New contracts to expand youth-specific services across the Northland, Waitematā and Auckland District Health Board areas have been confirmed, providing ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago

  • New hospital facilities mean fewer trips to Auckland for Northlanders
    Northlanders will no longer automatically have to go to Auckland for lifesaving heart procedures like angiograms, angioplasty and the insertion of pacemakers, thanks to new operating theatres and a cardiac catheter laboratory opened at Whangārei Hospital by Health Minister Andrew Little today. The two projects – along with a new ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago

  • Fair Pay Agreements to improve pay and conditions for essential workers
    The Government is delivering on its pre-election commitment to implement Fair Pay Agreements which will improve wages and conditions, as well as help support our economic recovery, Workplace Relations and Safety Minister Michael Wood announced today. Fair Pay Agreements will set minimum standards for all employees and employers in an ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago

  • Establishment of the new Māori Health Authority takes first big step
    Sir Mason Durie will lead a Steering Group to provide advice to the Transition Unit on governance arrangements and initial appointments to an interim board to oversee the establishment of the Māori Health Authority. This Group will ensure that Māori shape a vital element of our future health system, Minister ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago

  • Cycle trails move up a gear in Central
    Work on new and upgraded cycle trails in Queenstown, Arrowtown and Central Otago is moving up a gear as two significant projects pass further milestones today. Tourism Minister Stuart Nash has announced new funding for the Queenstown Trails Project, and will also formally open the Lake Dunstan Trail at Bannockburn ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago

  • Picton ferry terminal upgrade consent fast-tracked
    The planned upgrade of the Waitohi Picton Ferry terminal has been approved under the fast-track consenting process.  Environment Minister David Parker today welcomed the decision by the expert consenting panel to approve the Waitohi Picton Ferry Precinct Redevelopment Project.    The project will provide a significant upgrade to the ferry facilities ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago

  • Quarantine Free Travel with New South Wales paused
    COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins has announced his intention to pause Quarantine Free Travel from New South Wales to New Zealand while the source of infection of the two cases announced in Sydney in the last two days is investigated.  Whole genome sequencing has linked the case yesterday to a recent ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago

  • Covid-19 immigration powers to be extended
    The passing of a bill to extend temporary COVID-19 immigration powers means continued flexibility to support migrants, manage the border, and help industries facing labour shortages, Immigration Minister Kris Faafoi said. “Over the past year, we’ve made rapid decisions to extend visas, vary visa conditions and waive some application requirements ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago

  • “Supporting a Trade-Led Economic Recovery”
    Trade Policy Road Show SpeechManukau, Auckland   Kia ora koutou – nau mai, haere mai ki Manukau, ki Tāmaki.   Good morning everyone, and thank you for this opportunity to discuss with you current global challenges, opportunities and the Government’s strategy in support of a trade-led recovery from the economic ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago

  • Building consent numbers at an all-time high
    A record 41,028 new homes have been consented in the year ended March 2021 March 2021 consent numbers the highest since the 1940s Record number of new homes consented in Auckland The number of new homes consented is at an all-time high, showing a strong and increasing pipeline of demand ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago

  • Whānau-centred support for parents and tamariki
    Up to 60 whānau in Counties Manukau will be supported through the first three years of their parenthood by a new whānau-centred model of care, said Associate Health Minister, Hon Aupito William Sio. “Providing this support to young parents is something we have to get right. It’s a priority both ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago

  • NZ backs moves to improve global access to COVID vaccines
    New Zealand welcomes and strongly supports the announcement made by the United States Trade Representative to work for a waiver of IP protections on COVID-19 vaccines at the WTO, Trade Minister Damien O’Connor said. “New Zealand supports equitable access to COVID vaccines for all. No one is safe from the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago

  • Tourism communities: support, recovery and re-set plan
    TIHEI MAURI ORA Tuia te whakapono Tuia te tumanako Tuia te aroha Tuia te hunga ora Ki te hunga ora Tihei Mauri ora Ka nui te mihi ki a koutou Tena koutou, tena koutou, tena koutou katoa. Thank you, Hilary and thank you, Chris, and everyone at TIA for this ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago

  • Support, recovery and re-set plan for tourism communities
    Five South Island tourist communities targeted for specialist support Pressure on Māori tourism operators and Conservation facilities recognised Domestic and international-facing tourism agencies put on more secure footing Long-term plan to re-set tourism with a focus on sustainability, industry standards and regional economic diversification A plan to ensure the immediate ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago

  • Speech on NZ Rail Plan
    Check against delivery E ngā mana, e ngā reo, e ngā karanga maha o te wa, tēnā koutou, tēnā koutou, tēnā tātou katoa. Ki ngā mana whenua o Taranaki Whānui anō nei aku mihi ki a koutou. Nōku te hōnore kia haere mai ki te whakanuia tēnei huihuinga whakahirahira. Nō ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago

  • Government hits massive milestone in Violence Prevention & Elimination
    Minister for Family and Sexual Violence Marama Davidson announced a major milestone at a hui in South Auckland today, with the launch of the national engagement process on the prevention and elimination of family and sexual violence. “There is no room for violence in our lives – there is no ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago

  • Fee waiver extended for conservation tourism businesses
    Tourism businesses operating on public conservation land will have another six months of fees waived to help them adjust to the downturn in international visitors in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, Acting Minister of Conservation Dr Ayesha Verrall has announced. "We acknowledge it has been a difficult year for ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago

  • ‘Lua Wave’ to future-proof Pasifika Festivals in Aotearoa
    Pasifika festival organisers will receive additional support to adapt to the COVID-19 environment thanks to the Government’s newly launched ‘Lua Wave’ component of the Pasifika Festivals Initiative, Minister for Arts, Culture and Heritage Carmel Sepuloni announced today. “This initiative has not only been to support festival organisers to recover from ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago

  • Crown accounts show confidence in Govt economic plan
    The Government’s financial accounts continue to reflect the resilience of the economy and confidence in the Government’s economic recovery plan. The Crown accounts for the nine months to the end of March 2021 show both OBEGAL and the operating balance remain better than forecast in the Half Year Economic and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago

  • Energy Trusts of NZ Autumn Conference
    It’s a pleasure to be here today. Thank you Karen [Sherry] for the introduction and thanks to the Energy Trusts Executive for inviting me to speak at tonight’s event. It is an exciting time to come to speak to trustees of distribution companies. For many decades the electricity industry was ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago

  • New partnership to grow Māori success in STEM
    A new partnership with the Pūhoro STEM Academy will support thousands more rangatahi Māori to participate and succeed in the fields of science, technology, and innovation, Associate Education Minister Kelvin Davis announced today. Since 2016, Pūhoro has worked with Māori students to build their capability and create pathways to employment ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago

  • Rail builds platform for economic recovery
    Transport Minister Michael Wood and State-Owned Enterprises Minister Dr David Clark today released the Government’s long term vision for a sustainable rail network that supports our economic recovery. New Zealand Rail Plan lays out how the Government is building a resilient, reliable and safe network, as well as the indicative ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago

  • NZ and UK agree to lift the pace of free trade talks
    New Zealand and the United Kingdom have agreed to rapidly lift the tempo of talks, as the two countries enter a new phase in free trade negotiations, Trade and Export Growth Minister Damien O’Connor announced today. “UK Secretary of State for International Trade, Liz Truss, and I spoke today about ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago

  • Counter-Terrorism Legislation Bill passes first reading
    The Counter-Terrorism Legislation Bill has passed its first reading and will now be considered by Parliament’s Justice select committee. “The Bill updates and improves New Zealand’s counter-terrorism legislation and ensures that the right legislative tools are available to intervene early and prevent harm,” Minister of Justice Kris Faafoi said. “The ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago

  • Statement on The Speaker and Annual Review Debate
    “The serious issue of alleged sexual assault and harassment at Parliament was poorly managed and inappropriately politicised last night. The tone of the debate did not reflect well on Parliament as a whole,” Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said. “Any investigation of claims of sexual assault should be in a manner ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago

  • Govt motoring towards zero-carbon buses and protecting drivers’ conditions
    Transport Minister Michael Wood is seeking feedback on options for the next phase of the Public Transport Operating Model (PTOM) review to better protect bus drivers’ pay conditions, and also achieving the Government’s target of fully decarbonising the public transport bus fleet by 2035. Michael Wood said investing in our ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago

  • Drop in unemployment shows Govt economic plan is working
    The Government’s economic recovery plan continues to be reflected in the labour market, with more people in work and unemployment falling. Stats NZ figures show employment rose by 15,000 in the March quarter, with 14,000 more women in work. The unemployment rate fell from 4.9 percent to 4.7 percent. This ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago

  • Government sets pay and workforce expectations for the Public Sector
    The Government’s Workforce Policy Statement issued today sets out its expectations for pay and employment relations in the Public Sector, the Minister of Finance and Minister for the Public Service say. “New Zealand has had an exceptionally successful health and economic response to COVID-19. This has been supported by the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago

  • Author Ben Brown is New Zealand’s first Te Awhi Rito Reading Ambassador
    Lyttleton writer Ben Brown (Ngāti Mahuta, Ngāti Koroki, Ngāti Paoa) will be New Zealand’s first Te Awhi Rito Reading Ambassador, promoting the value of reading for children and young people, Internal Affairs Minister Jan Tinetti announced today. A poet and award-winning author, Ben Brown writes books, non-fiction and short stories ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago

  • Celebrating New Zealand’s firefighters this International Firefighters’ day
    With two fire stations already complete, and building underway on 16 fire stations around the country, today we celebrate International Firefighters’ Day for the important role firefighters have in keeping communities across the country safe, says Minister of Internal Affairs, Jan Tinetti. The work is progressing due to Government funding ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago

  • Ron Brierley knighthood to go
    Ron Brierley has written to the Clerk of the Executive Council to tender his resignation as a Knight Bachelor. The Queen has been informed. The forfeiture follows the Prime Minister initiating the process to remove his Knighthood. The Clerk of the Executive Council wrote to him on 6 April 2021 ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago

  • Employment boost for rural communities
    The Government is continuing to create opportunities for at-risk rangatahi overcome barriers to employment, education or training with the next tranche of He Poutama Rangatahi programmes, Minister for Social Development and Employment Carmel Sepuloni announced today. “We’re focused on supporting rangatahi to get what they need to progress in the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago

  • Pre-Budget speech to Wellington Chamber of Commerce
    Thank you for the invitation to speak today, it is great to be here.  I mean that both sincerely and literally. For this equivalent speech last year I took part virtually, beaming in from the Beehive Theatrette with only a socially distanced press gallery bearing silent witness. You are a ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago

  • Budget 2021 reprioritises nearly $1 billion
    The Government’s strong pandemic response and the better than expected economic recovery means not all the money allocated in the COVID-19 Response and Recovery Fund has been spent, Grant Robertson said in his annual pre-Budget speech to the Wellington Chamber of Commerce this morning. “As part of Budget preparation I ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago

  • Speech on Digital Identity Trust Framework
    I'd like to start by thanking Graeme, David and Ben from NZTech and Digital Identity New Zealand for inviting me to speak to you. I’m so sorry I can’t be there in person, but I want to acknowledge those of you who are, including some of this country’s top tech ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago

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