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Open mike 01/02/2020

Written By: - Date published: 7:00 am, February 1st, 2020 - 68 comments
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Open mike is your post.

For announcements, general discussion, whatever you choose.

The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy).

Step up to the mike …

68 comments on “Open mike 01/02/2020 ”

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  1. James 1
    1 February 2020 at 8:14 am

    Happy Brexit day all.

    Boris has done an amazing job getting this over the line and out smarting remoaners.

    this will be his legacy and it will be a good one.

  2. A 2
    1 February 2020 at 8:39 am

    Cover off the basic prep…2 months food, bleach, toilet paper, flu meds, prescription meds….imho the risk is now too high to ignore (even if this is not peer reviewed yet). Still time to get in before the herd.

      • Cinny 2.1.1
        1 February 2020 at 11:23 am

        Am hoping The Listening Post will do a story on the media coverage of the virus tonight. Fingers crossed. Roll on 9.30pm, I love that show.

      • Poission 2.1.2
        1 February 2020 at 12:09 pm

        And the insert protein in cov,is not present in other cov,an has significant similarity to HIV.

        The finding of 4 unique inserts in the 2019-nCoV, all of which have identity /similarity to amino acid residues in key structural proteins of HIV-1 is unlikely to be fortuitous in nature.

        https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.30.927871v1.full.pdf

        • RedLogix 2.1.2.1
          1 February 2020 at 3:23 pm

          And concluding with the sentences:

          Taken together, our findings suggest unconventional evolution of 2019-nCoV that warrants further investigation. Our work highlights novel evolutionary aspects of the 2019-nCoV and has implications on the pathogenesis and diagnosis of this virus.

          The phrase 'unconventional evolution' is intentionally vague; I wonder what they really want to say.

          • Poission 2.1.2.1.1
            1 February 2020 at 4:41 pm

            Shouldn't jump to conclusions,to quickly as it seems the virus is also a fast mutator.

            According to Lai, RNA viruses—viruses that have RNA as their genetic material rather than DNA—such as the Wuhan coronavirus and SARS, have a “high mutation rate,” which allows it to “change properties very quickly.”

            As an example, in the Lancet study, the RNA sequences isolated from 6 patients from the same household are different from each other, he noted. Lai said he observed in his previous research the “frequent occurrence of RNA recombination between different coronavirus strains,” a sign of the virus evolving.

            https://www.theepochtimes.com/china-underreporting-true-scale-of-deadly-viral-outbreak-expert-says_3218207.html

            It may have passed through HIV affected patients at some stage whose weakened immune response allowed for differential mutation.

            Interesting that the PRC authorities are using aids drugs as a treatment option.

      • pat 2.1.3
        1 February 2020 at 8:14 pm

        "As influenza is caused by a variety of species and strains of viruses, in any given year some strains can die out while others create epidemics, while yet another strain can cause a pandemic. Typically, in a year's normal two flu seasons (one per hemisphere), there are between three and five million cases of severe illness and around 650,000 deaths worldwide,"

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza

        For measles, the number (R0) is much larger: between 12 and 18.

        https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/roots-of-unity/understand-the-measles-outbreak-with-this-one-weird-number/

        • Poission 2.1.3.1
          1 February 2020 at 9:36 pm

          the mathematicians disagree.

          • pat 2.1.3.1.1
            1 February 2020 at 10:14 pm

            the mathematicians disagree with what?……that influenza kills approximately 650,000 in an average year?…or that the R nought ratio for measles is between 12 and 18?

            • Poission 2.1.3.1.1.1
              2 February 2020 at 10:55 am

              Their argument is the lag ,it is biased downwards being fat tailed (with cv) so comparisons with average qualities do not hold.

              https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1221486205847646208/photo/1

              • pat …
                2 February 2020 at 12:06 pm

                so neither is disputed…thats as expected as the analysis is performed by statisticians.

                The argument is the timing and environment (two variables) that potentially make comparisons pointless….it is reasonable to expect that the initial R0 value will be higher due to a lack of awareness and/or precaution, then there is the lag in reporting and analysis and also environmental differences.

                All reasonable assumptions, however the point was not the accuracy of comparisons but the fact that any exponential increase is of concern, especially the longer the period of inaction continues….whether 2-3 or 4.08 or higher. It would also be reasonable to expect that R value to fall now that (some) precautions are being implemented

                The virus in Wuhan had at least a five week start before any action was taken and has already spread outside the initial area, unsurprising given that China has a large mobile population living in many instances in close interaction, and given the fact that in has 140 million international visitors per annum and the incubation period is measured in many days….the horse has bolted.

                As the RNZ interviewed virologist noted its too late to contain the virus and the best chance is to develop a vaccine and distribute it as quickly as possible and any action taken now is to prevent as much spread as possible to buy time for that event…..the virus now exists and humans will have to learn to cope with it as they do influenza and measles. Did we call for Auckland to be quarantined during the recent measles epidemic, or Samoa even?

                Hysterics around closing boarders (for how long?) and contagion rates that are fairly typical (added to what appears a fairly low mortality rate) serve no purpose….indeed such a reaction has the potential to produce far more death and misery as vital supplies for large portions of the population become harder to obtain

    • weka 2.2
      1 February 2020 at 9:51 am

      "2 months food, bleach, toilet paper, flu meds, prescription meds"

      Most NZers should have that for quake prep anyway.

      "Still time to get in before the herd."

      You planning to go into isolation/quarrantine? 😉

      Someone that puts New Massive Contagion Risk in capitals on the front of their youtube is probably to be avoided. He's fear mongering, even if he's getting some details right.

      • A 2.2.1
        1 February 2020 at 4:15 pm

        I've been following him for years. He has a PhD in pathology from Duke, speciality in toxins, sub-speciality neurotoxins.

        Buying extra stuff that will get used later on anyway has little down side. Flu stuff I've brought costs less than $20 and that may not get used so might be given away. Twenty bucks to insure my safety. Hardly an over reaction.

        And yeah…people should have these kinds of preperations anyway, but they don’t. I could be because they moved and donated stuff they didn’t replace, ran out of money and used their stores, or maybe couldn’t afford them in the first place. But most people just don’t do it. They could handle a week and beyond that it’s iffy

    • A 2.3
      1 February 2020 at 9:58 pm

      Over the ditch Oz closes border to non Australians from China, or their immediate family. We need to follow this or they might come here..we are awfully handy.

      Isolation for 14 days is required for those returning to Aussie.

  3. Sanctuary 3
    1 February 2020 at 8:47 am

    How much space does the UK leaving the EU free up?

    1GB.

    If you want anymore, I'll just be over by the BBQ with the other dads wearing Hawaiian shirts.

  4. Dennis Frank 4
    1 February 2020 at 9:39 am

    Spinoff discusses media reform in Aotearoa: "A plan is in the works to transform state broadcasting in New Zealand, with some form of merger between TVNZ and Radio NZ on the cards." https://thespinoff.co.nz/the-bulletin/31-01-2020/the-bulletin-concerns-grow-in-public-media-merger-information-void/

    "the story was first broken by Radio NZ political editor Jane Patterson, and she provided this update about cabinet forging ahead with the work, with a goal to having it up and running by 2023. It would primarily be a public-service broadcaster, which is relevant because of the potential for culture clash between the purely non-commercial RNZ and commercial TVNZ network. But it could also have a mixed funding model, with some revenue coming from commercial sources."

    And "as Radio NZ’s Charlie Dreaver reports, criticism is mounting in the information vacuum. That’s partly because there is some commercial sensitivity in whatever gets decided, but as Victoria University media professor Peter Thompson put it, knowing what’s in the blueprint would allow the public to actually discuss what could happen."

    What strikes me is the lack of conceptual advance on what we've had the past 30-odd years, but perhaps that's why Faafoi was sent back to the drawing board by cabinet in December.

    "RNZ has also been told the amended proposal puts a specific emphasis on the fact the new company will be primarily a public service media outlet, and to ensure that is made crystal clear in any legislation, and through a charter. That would also help to alleviate some of the strongly expressed concerns some ministers had about a "culture clash" – namely the risk the public broadcasting ethos could be subsumed by an aggressive commercial imperative once the new company was established and operating in the media marketplace." https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/408355/new-details-revealed-as-cabinet-agrees-on-rnz-tvnz-public-broadcasting-decision

    So this thing will hinge on the viability of a new design, in which the balance between the public interest and the necessity of sensible economy in the management of the media is appropriate. I see no reason why both left & right cannot be satisfied simultaneously. The only reason that hasn't happened before is both bunches of jerks being lazy and performing poorly all the time.

    • Ad 4.1
      1 February 2020 at 10:51 am

      Honestly this just look alike another one of those government projects that was inevitable that they would have a go at, and almost inevitable that it would take multiple parliamentary terms to get anywhere if at all.

      We already have Maori television, which has plenty of public subsidy as well as advertising.

      TVNZ is so awful in achieving any public good benefit that it needs to die. So why don't they just let it?

      I don't see any need to tamper with RNZ. It’s evolving just fine.

      It will be very interesting to see how this business case evolves, but I am very skeptical.

      • millsy 4.1.1
        1 February 2020 at 11:56 am

        TVNZ is going to die, and be replaced by something else under the proposal.

        Though I think restarting TVNZ6 and TVNZ7 is probably the way to go. It was a real shame that National had those channels chopped, they were the closest thing that NZ would have to true public TV.

    • OnceWasTim 4.2
      1 February 2020 at 12:42 pm

      What's a little depressing about this 'project' is that the various 'stakeholders' involved all have their own vested interests and don't seem to include "the public" unless one is prepared to get involved with lobby groups. (I was at one time and still admire the efforts of the likes of Peter Thompson, Miles? and Co – but never really thought it was ambitious enough).

      For a population of 5 mill (and on that basis we hear the continued harping that means PSB is unaffordable and difficult ro achieve), the whole system is completely over-managed (last count about 7 different agencies involved complete with their enterage of Directors, Board members, CEO's et al)

      A lot of it is really down to political will, and possibly the fact that even if something half-decent gets implemented, you can be sure that if & when a new junta gets elected (with its commitment to the market the market, growth growth, demography and risk management), it'll immediately seek to destroy it.

      And I fear we’re probably just going to see another exodus of those who’ve given up in despair. Shame to see Jane Wrightson go in many ways. Al Jazeera will probably be spoiled for choice

  5. Dennis Frank 5
    1 February 2020 at 10:06 am

    About 18 months ago, the New Yorker reported on resurgent tribalism: "We live in a time of tribes. Not of ideologies, parties, groups, or beliefs—these don’t convey the same impregnability of political fortifications, or the yawning chasms between them. American politics today requires a word as primal as “tribe” to get at the blind allegiances and huge passions of partisan affiliation." https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/a-new-report-offers-insights-into-tribalism-in-the-age-of-trump

    "Tribes demand loyalty, and in return they confer the security of belonging. They’re badges of identity, not of thought. In a way, they make thinking unnecessary, because they do it for you, and may punish you if you try to do it for yourself. To get along without a tribe makes you a fool. To give an inch to the other tribe makes you a sucker."

    "More in Common, a research organization based in Europe and the United States, released a report called “Hidden Tribes: A Study of America’s Polarized Landscape.” It builds on the group’s prior work in France, Germany, and Italy—an effort to understand and counteract rising populism and fragmentation in the Western democracies. Throughout the past year, the report’s four authors surveyed eight thousand randomly chosen Americans, asking questions about “core beliefs”: moral values, attitudes toward parenting and personal responsibility, perceptions of threats, approaches to group identity. The authors then sorted people, based on their beliefs and values, into seven “tribes”: Progressive Activists, Traditional Liberals, Passive Liberals, Politically Disengaged, Moderates, Traditional Conservatives, Devoted Conservatives."

    So what we have here is an attempt at more sophisticated political analysis. We know the Dems & Reps are now functioning more like tribes than political parties. The question is why this morphing has occurred. The theory of the researchers needs to explain how seven organic tribes coalesce into the two archaic parties.

    "More in Common found that “tribal membership predicts differences in Americans’ views on various political issues better than demographic, ideological, and partisan groupings.” In other words, whether or not you think creativity is more important than good behavior in children is a better indicator of your political views than is your gender, your race, your income, or your party affiliation."

    “We have too much opinion research and not enough value research,” according to Tim Dixon, an Australian political activist and a founder of More in Common.

    "This is why the seven tribes are hidden. We’re used to seeing race, gender, region, religion, and other categories line up with political preferences in numbingly predictable ways. We rarely know the underlying world views that inform these opinions. The tribes in the report are different from the rigid and unchanging partisan monoliths of our national political debate… Away from the fun-house mirrors and the bullhorns of cable news and social media, people’s views are more nuanced and less easy to caricature. For example, eighty-one per cent of those interviewed believe that racism is a serious problem, but eighty-five per cent think that race should not be a factor in college admissions."

    "The 8% of Progressive Activists on the left and the 25% of Traditional and Devoted Conservatives on the right are less open to compromise, less ideologically flexible".

    Together they constitute a hardline third of the electorate. The majority two-thirds want compromise, and are fed-up with the parties. So the system has warped away from most people, to serve only the rabid left/right ideologues. No wonder anti-establishment feeling has escalated so much.

    • Ad 5.1
      1 February 2020 at 10:54 am

      Facebook enables us to form our own tribes, and we seem pretty good about it given its popularity.

      Ardern has about 700,000 Facebook followers and about 400,000 on Twitter. So social media is easily obliterating the tribal micro-distinctions, and ordinary politics here appears to be evolving just fine.

      • Sanctuary 5.1.1
        1 February 2020 at 11:04 am

        "…Ardern has about 700,000 Facebook followers…"

        I heard Hooton squarking this figure on the radio the other day.

        I took from it that he isn't her friend on her actual FB page.

    • Sacha 5.2
      1 February 2020 at 12:06 pm

      That is just the same old political single-axis spectrum. Seems novel only because the US has a rigid two-party structure.

      I found this NZ approach some years ago more interesting even though it comes from marketing people: https://www.8tribes.co.nz/tribe-summary.php

      Try the list of questions on their 'Find Your Tribe' page.

      • Dennis Frank 5.2.1
        1 February 2020 at 12:17 pm

        Yeah, I recall encountering that & identifying with Raglan, although a second look suggests I really have one foot in Cuba St – which, since I've always been averse to Wellingtonians, makes me feel quite uneasy… 🥶

        • OnceWasTim 5.2.1.1
          1 February 2020 at 1:35 pm

          You could always move to Lyttleton – there's elements of all 8 tribes there it seems to me. Pick a day, pick a tribe

          • Dennis Frank 5.2.1.1.1
            1 February 2020 at 1:58 pm

            Multicultural then, huh? What about you – identify with any of those 8? As Sacha observed, the 7-fold scheme featured by the New Yorker is just across the old linear axis, whereas the kiwi one seems more ethnic (ethnologists would no doubt point out that I'm using the term incorrectly, so I plead guilty in advance).

            • OnceWasTim 5.2.1.1.1.1
              1 February 2020 at 3:29 pm

              Bits and pieces of the last four I guess. It's changed over time having had to be amongst the first four (North Shore, Grey Lynn, Balclutha and Remmers ).

              That's not to say I'm a bit iffy about the Raglan tribe – just because often self-interest can take precedence.

              Probably up to others to give an opinion of me though. And when the North Shore tribe meet their maker, I'm not sure what it is they'll actually have 'achieved' other than the superficial

              • Dennis Frank …
                1 February 2020 at 4:30 pm

                Interesting, quite a mix. Traditional framing: "a well-rounded person". I do share the ethos of North Shore & Balclutha with you (probably due to boyhood in suburban New Plymouth in a heartland family).

                Not Remmers, and only the front part of Grey Lynn: "highly educated intelligentsia who value ideas above material things" since the other part of GL is pretentious/superficial.

                Although Wellingtonians are probably less the petty bureaucrats nowadays than they once were (boring conformists), Aucklanders are still just as shallow as ever (crass commercial). Bruce Jesson got it right with his mirror-glass framing. My circle of friends there are all alternative thinkers from the seventies and I suspect there's plenty more in Ak that I don't know personally. Acclimatised to the rat-race, the bullshit just rolls off them…

                Other peer-group affiliations from the past were identity-based too, and each co-created a culture that one could call tribal. The sixties rebels, the counter-culture. The hand-shake got replaced by the hug. Almost entirely apolitical. You can see why the Greens who emerged from that as a minority strand view today's Greens as somewhat alien life-forms..

                • OnceWasTim …
                  1 February 2020 at 4:46 pm

                  What would be quite an interesting post/thread would be to take the 8 tribes, and have commenters from The Standard develop each of the definitions further.

                  As in:

                  "The Grey Lynn Tribe – Intellectual
                  The highly educated intelligentsia who value ideas above material things and intellectualise every element of their lives. Their most prized possession is a painting by the artist of the moment, they frequent film festivals, feel guilty about discussing property values and deep down are uneasy about their passion for reality television………..

                  ………. the urban equivalent of Martinborough; though guilty about discussing property values and watching reality television, not averse to seeing investment gains or being addicted to Coronation Street; also not averse to a bit of name-dropping (such as my neighbour is JC) from time to time, or being a regular guest on "the Panel" with Wallace.

                  But I'd also suggest that any commenter should also have to write a self-criticism. I'll do mine a bit later – ankle biter to look after and amuse – but it'll go along the lines of "I can be a bit of a pratt at times"

      • Andre 5.2.2
        1 February 2020 at 12:22 pm

        Their "find your tribe" thingy reckons I'm Grey Lynn. Which, by their description and acquaintance with some actual Grey Lynn residents, is a group I actively dislike.

        • Sacha 5.2.2.1
          1 February 2020 at 12:27 pm

          It's the Grey Lynn of twenty years ago, I reckon. One that more people could afford to live in.

      • RedLogix 5.2.3
        1 February 2020 at 1:21 pm

        This has been around for quite a while now, and I think it was partly responsible for tilting my interest away from political partisanship towards value based thinking. For what it's worth I'm a roughly even mix of Grey Lynn and Raglan.

        There are lots of these sorts of models, and there is something useful to be taken away from most of them.

    • WeTheBleeple 5.3
      1 February 2020 at 12:27 pm

      Good food for thought. Thanks Dennis.

  6. Cinny 6
    1 February 2020 at 11:38 am

    Jeepers they voting regarding allowing new witnesses.
    Will those repug's stick together for their party or will any 'cross the floor' for the good of the people?

    Edit… the yay’s are 49 and the nay’s are 51.

    Bugger, no new witnesses. They are now going into recess.

    • Andre 6.1
      1 February 2020 at 11:53 am

      Meh.

      There's plenty of Repugs that acknowledge he clearly did it, it's impeachable, but they wouldn't vote for conviction and removal no matter what. Rubio's explanation of this is a real doozy.

      https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/31/politics/marco-rubio-donald-trump-senate-impeachment-trial/index.html

      The witness vote just means they now have to wear voting for a cover-up as well. Right now it's looking fairly likely what Bolton has to say will come dribbling out over the next few months anyway, along with a lot of what other potential witnesses might have said.

      • joe90 6.1.1
        1 February 2020 at 11:58 am

        Former Presidential candidate says it out loud.

        • Sabine 6.1.1.1
          1 February 2020 at 7:07 pm

          well they voted to burn down government as they knew it, they wanted a new order, get rid of the old, yada yada yada, i guess they succeeded.

          now, watch that drive.

          but in saying that, the republicans are the one that can disapear trump in a new york minute by declare the 25th on him. They can. 🙂 But so as long as he signs their tax cuts, their gutting of the social welfare net, the gutting of any environmental laws, the gutting of public schools and universities etc, they will do nothing. He is the hand that signs their laws. He is the hand that will drown government in a bath tub. It took them a few decades but they finally got the hand, and the cheap fuck he is, he is doing for a hand full of dollars that he charges on beds in his winter white house.

          oh well, no one could have forseen this….Right?

      • Dennis Frank 6.1.2
        1 February 2020 at 12:10 pm

        Yeah, but, as is often the case, the subtext may tell the real story. Who would be paranoid about a fundamentalist christian becoming president? Another, who wants to get there first.

        "He received his first communion as a Catholic in 1984 before moving back to Miami with his family a year later. He was confirmed and later married in the Catholic Church." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marco_Rubio

        Pence got born again. Doesn't say that happened to Rubio. That may put him in a different catholic tribe. Regardless, there may be rivalry rather than camaraderie between them.

        • Andre 6.1.2.1
          1 February 2020 at 12:18 pm

          Occam's Razor sez he's just scared of getting primaried by angry Drumpfkins in 2022 if he dares cross their fake-bronze idol.

    • aom 6.2
      1 February 2020 at 12:22 pm

      The Senate vote suggests that two of the three legs of state that were devised to protect democracy in the US have effectively been chopped off. That means???

  7. joe90 7
    1 February 2020 at 11:47 am

    'Murica, a failing state run by militias.

    https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/gunmen-some-in-masks-swarm-ky-capitol-for-2nd-amendment-rally

    • Cinny 7.1
      1 February 2020 at 1:00 pm

      Fork!!!! . And the types in those images also say that those who care about the planet are dangerous… what the actual fuck…dang..

      What that country allows is the meaning of insanity. 'Murica's normality.

      Agent orange has just expanded his travel ban. and I'm wondering how many at the rally in that tweet had strong Christian beliefs.

      Technology has evolved but not their constitution or mentality. Their election will be a stunner.

  8. joe90 8
    1 February 2020 at 12:56 pm

    Marvelous.

    A YouTube prankster seems to have tricked Katie Hopkins into picking up a “completely fake” award following which she delivered an offensive speech that saw her mock Muslims, Asian people and epilepsy sufferers.

    Josh Pieters said the former Apprentice contestant flew to Prague to accept the trophy on Monday (27 January).

    In footage from the “ceremony”, Hopkins – a far-right commentator – can be seen smiling with Pieters in front of a screen bearing the words “Campaign to Unify the Nation Trophy.”

    When she collects the award, the capital letters enlarge, spelling out the C-word.

    “It’s strange to hear nice things being said about yourself,” she can be heard saying.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/tv/news/katie-hopkins-youtube-josh-pieters-prank-fake-award-twitter-video-prague-a9310606.html

  9. joe90 9
    1 February 2020 at 1:10 pm

    Making America Great Again, innocent limb by innocent limb.

    • joe90 9.1
      1 February 2020 at 1:27 pm

      Of course he will.

      • Sabine 9.1.1
        1 February 2020 at 7:10 pm

        have a look at the East German wall, with its no mans lands, its mine fields, its self shooting systems and its not an escalation but a forseable step in the building of a fence that will do more to keep people in then out. As a reminder, the mines, will be on the US American side. Not the mexican side.

        But oh well, her fucking emails, and besides how much harm could he do, and besides we must be understanding of the white male working class with economic anxiety.

        Who would have forseen this shit, oh yeah……….

  10. Andre 10
    1 February 2020 at 4:53 pm

    Joe's most persuasive ad …

  11. joe90 11
    1 February 2020 at 6:41 pm

    Nothing's changed, Frank.

    "Trouble Every Day"

    Well I'm about to get sick
    From watchin' my TV
    Been checkin' out the news
    Until my eyeballs fail to see
    I mean to say that every day
    Is just another rotten mess
    And when it's gonna change, my friend
    Is anybody's guess

  12. joe90 12
    1 February 2020 at 7:06 pm

    Former President of Estonia:

    • Sabine 12.1
      1 February 2020 at 7:14 pm

      nope, now we are ruled by mafia for mafia. the russian mafia, the us mafia, the asian triads, the european mafia etc etc etc, i think we call them the billionaires class.

      I hope everyone who ever had issues with killary and bullshit, will eat crow. a lot of it, and without any seasoning.

    • Andre 12.2
      1 February 2020 at 9:14 pm

      Doubt it.

      As soon as there's a Dem prez again, Repugs will rediscover all over again the writings of Alexander Hamilton, the constitution, oversight and accountability, enforceability of subpoenas and all the rest of it.

      And they will either gaslight the fuck out of what just happened, or pretend it didn’t actually happen.

  13. Incognito 13
    1 February 2020 at 7:40 pm

    No coronavirus in NZ, at least not yet.

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/119206613/no-suspected-coronavirus-in-new-zealand-ministry-of-health-announce

    OTOH, the highly contagious corruptionvirus appears to be spreading unabated.

    • Poission 13.1
      1 February 2020 at 7:55 pm

      It may start to be self sustaining from other nodes (such as Beijing etc)

      Given that 2019-nCoV is no longer contained within Wuhan, other major Chinese cities are probably sustaining localised outbreaks. Large cities overseas with close transport links to China could also become outbreak epicentres, unless substantial public health interventions at both the population and personal levels are implemented immediately. Independent self-sustaining outbreaks in major cities globally could become inevitable because of substantial exportation of presymptomatic cases and in the absence of large-scale public health interventions. Preparedness plans and mitigation interventions should be readied for quick deployment globally.

      https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9/fulltext#%20

      BTW all the journals are open access in regard to papers on CV.

      on the other side oil demand is forecast to fall significantly.

      https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/natural-gas/013120-commodity-markets-weaken-with-equities-as-coronavirus-spreads

      **Platts Analytics worst-case scenario shows a drop of 2.6 million b/d in oil demand in February, and a 2 million b/d decline in March.

      **Platts Analytics best-case scenario shows a drop of 900,0000 b/d in oil demand for February, and a 650,000 b/d decline in March.

      **Platts Analytics best-case scenario shows global jet fuel demand declining by 618,000 b/d in February, while its worst-case scenario shows a decline of 1 million b/d.

  14. Sabine 14
    1 February 2020 at 8:07 pm

    all of this doom and gloom and i found this….

    we live in interesting times.

  15. Fireblade 15
    1 February 2020 at 9:07 pm

    Cypress Hill siz gangsta yo!

    Here's one for the orange POTUS…

    Insane In The Brain

  16. joe90 16
    1 February 2020 at 10:18 pm

    They could've saved themselves time if they’d just taken the stage and chanted MAGA!

    /

  17. sumsuch 17
    2 February 2020 at 2:18 am

    No time left except for main truth, fellow aliases. Though I appreciate all the detailers. Wider picture needs specific evidence. We need a Demosthenes, a Cicero, a Corbyn, a Sanders. A world of talk about reality. Rather than the present local players of the (84) game.

    Even Helen Clark , after leading the charge for the international poor is only up for our teeth. Step up one and all to try for us all NOW. Easy for us in 1935 with nothing to lose for keen worker intelligences. Now there is no money for the truth speakers. 'Meritocracy'. Or paying off the most talented , which has brought us to this silly end. The creatures of post 2000 Labour treat it like a game for their benefit. 35-ists knew their life-long sacrifice, particularly their personal lives. Robert Reid, Sue Bradford, Bernard Hickey, and all the so many rest of the heroes of Aotearoa who've looked 'beyond the money'. Speak and speak again , heroes. Pol scis don't take you seriously but you're our only hope.

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  • Keynote address to Chartered Accountants Australia and New Zealand conference
    Speech to the CAANZ conference - November 19, 2020 Thank you, Greg, (Greg Haddon, MC) for the welcome. I’d like to acknowledge John Cuthbertson from CAANZ, the Commissioner of Inland Revenue Naomi Ferguson, former fellow MP and former Minister of Revenue, Peter Dunne, other guest speakers and CAANZ members. I ...
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    5 hours ago

  • Expert independent advisory group appointed to strengthen the future of Māori broadcasting
    A panel of seven experts are adding their support to help shape the future of Māori broadcasting, Minister for Māori Development Willie Jackson has announced today. “Today I will meet with some of the most experienced Māori broadcasters, commentators and practitioners in the field. They have practical insights on the ...
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    12 hours ago

  • Government to review housing settings
    New Zealand’s stronger-than-expected economic performance has flowed through to housing demand, so the Government will review housing settings to improve access to the market, the Finance Minister Grant Robertson announced today. “Our focus is on improving access to the housing market for first home buyers and ensuring house price growth ...
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    1 day ago

  • Crown accounts reflect Govt’s careful economic management
    The better-than-expected Crown accounts released today show the Government’s careful management of the COVID-19 health crisis was the right approach to support the economy. As expected, the Crown accounts for the year to June 2020 show the operating balance before gains and losses, or OBEGAL, was in deficit. However that ...
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    1 day ago

  • Community launch marks next step in addressing racism in education
    The launch of Te Hurihanganui in Porirua today is another important milestone in the work needed to address racism in the education system and improve outcomes for Māori learners and their whānau, Associate Education Minister Kelvin Davis says. Budget 2019 included $42 million over three years to put Te Hurihanganui ...
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    1 day ago

  • Government to consider recommendations on DNA use in criminal investigations
    The Minister of Justice has received the Law Commission’s recommending changes to the law governing the way DNA is used in criminal investigations. The report, called The Use of DNA in Criminal Investigations – Te Whahamahi I te Ira Tangata I ngā Mātai Taihara, recommends new legislation to address how ...
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    1 day ago

  • Speech to Wakatū Nelson regional hui on trade
    First, I want to express my thanks to Te Taumata for this hui and for all the fantastic work you are doing for Māori in the trade space. In the short time that you’ve been operating you’ve already contributed an enormous amount to the conversation, and developed impressive networks.  I ...
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    1 day ago

  • Speech to Primary Industries Summit
    Thank you for the opportunity to speak to you today about the significant contribution the food and fibres sector makes to New Zealand and how this Government is supporting that effort. I’d like to start by acknowledging our co-Chairs, Terry Copeland and Mavis Mullins, my colleague, Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor, ...
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    1 day ago

  • Fast track referrals will speed up recovery and boost jobs and home building
    The Government is taking action to increase jobs, speed up the economic recovery and build houses by putting three more projects through its fast track approval process. “It’s great to see that the fast-track consenting process is working. Today we have referred a mix of potential projects that, if approved, ...
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    2 days ago

  • Papakāinga provides critically needed homes in Hastings
    A papakāinga opened today by the Minister for Māori Development the Hon Willie Jackson will provide whānau with much needed affordable rental homes in Hastings. The four home papakāinga in Waiōhiki is the first project to be completed under the ‘Hastings Place Based’ initiative. This initiative is a Government, Hastings ...
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    4 days ago

  • New Zealand ready to host APEC virtually
    Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern took over the leadership of APEC earlier today, when she joined leaders from the 21 APEC economies virtually for the forum’s final 2020 meeting. “We look forward to hosting a fully virtual APEC 2021 next year. While this isn’t an in-person meeting, it will be one ...
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    5 days ago

  • Revival of Māori Horticulturists
    The rapid revival of Māori horticulture was unmistakeable at this year’s Ahuwhenua Trophy Awards, with 2020 marking the first time this iconic Māori farming event was dedicated to horticulture enterprises. Congratulating finalists at the Awards, Māori Development Minister Willie Jackson said growing large-scale māra kai is part of Māori DNA. ...
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    5 days ago

  • Emergency benefit to help temporary visa holders
    From 1 December, people on temporary work, student or visitor visas who can’t return home and or support themselves may get an Emergency Benefit from the Ministry of Social Development, Social Development and Employment Minister Carmel Sepuloni announced today. Previously, temporary visa holders in hardship because of COVID-19 have had ...
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    5 days ago

  • School sustainability projects to help boost regional economies
    Forty one schools from the Far North to Southland will receive funding for projects that will reduce schools’ emissions and save them money, Education Minister Chris Hipkins announced today. This is the second round of the Sustainability Contestable Fund, and work will begin immediately. The first round announced in April ...
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    5 days ago

  • Farmer-led projects to improve water health in Canterbury and Otago
    More than $6 million will be spent on helping farmers improve the health of rivers, wetlands, and habitat biodiversity in Canterbury and Otago, as well as improving long-term land management practices, says Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor. Four farmer-led catchment group Jobs for Nature projects have between allocated between $176,000 and ...
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    5 days ago

  • Tupu Aotearoa continues expansion to Pacific communities in Nelson, Marlborough, Tasman & Northl...
    Pacific communities in Nelson, Marlborough, Tasman and Northland will benefit from the expansion of the Tupu Aotearoa programme announced today by the Minister for Pacific Peoples, Aupito William Sio. The programme provides sustainable employment and education pathways and will be delivered in partnership with three providers in Northland and two ...
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    5 days ago

  • New primary school and classrooms for 1,200 students in South Island
    Education Minister Chris Hipkins unveiled major school building projects across the South Island during a visit to Waimea College in Nelson today. It’s part of the Government’s latest investment of $164 million to build new classrooms and upgrade schools around the country. “Investments like this gives the construction industry certainty ...
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    5 days ago

  • Minister of Māori Development pays tribute to Rudy Taylor
      Today the Minister of Māori Development, alongside other Government Ministers and MP’s said their final farewells to Nga Puhi Leader Rudy Taylor.  “Rudy dedicated his life to the betterment of Māori, and his strong approach was always from the ground up, grassroots, sincere and unfaltering”  “Over the past few ...
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    5 days ago

  • Prime Minister to attend APEC Leaders’ Summit
    Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern will attend the annual APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting and associated events virtually today and tomorrow. “In a world where we cannot travel due to COVID-19, continuing close collaboration with our regional partners is key to accelerating New Zealand’s economic recovery,” Jacinda Ardern said. “There is wide ...
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    5 days ago

  • Speech to Infrastructure NZ Symposium
    Tena Koutou, Tena Koutou and thank you for inviting me to speak to you today. This is a critical time for New Zealand as we respond to the damage wreaked by the global COVID-19 pandemic. It is vital that investment in our economic recovery is well thought through, and makes ...
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    6 days ago

  • Pike River 10 Year Anniversary Commemorative Service
    Tēnei te mihi ki a tātau katoa e huihui nei i tēnei rā Ki a koutou ngā whānau o te hunga kua riro i kōnei – he mihi aroha ki a koutou Ki te hapori whānui – tēnā koutou Ki ngā tāngata whenua – tēnā koutou Ki ngā mate, e ...
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    6 days ago

  • Huge investment in new and upgraded classrooms to boost construction jobs
    Around 7,500 students are set to benefit from the Government’s latest investment of $164 million to build new classrooms and upgrade schools around the country. “The election delivered a clear mandate to accelerate our economic recovery and build back better. That’s why we are prioritising construction projects in schools so more ...
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    6 days ago

  • Keeping Pike River Mine promises 10 years on
    Ten years after the Pike River Mine tragedy in which 29 men lost their lives while at work, a commemorative service at Parliament has honoured them and their legacy of ensuring all New Zealand workplaces are safe. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern attended the event, along with representatives of the Pike ...
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    6 days ago

  • Additional testing to strengthen border and increase safety of workers
    New testing measures are being put in place to increase the safety of border workers and further strengthen New Zealand’s barriers against COVID-19, COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins said today. “These strengthened rules – to apply to all international airports and ports – build on the mandatory testing orders we’ve ...
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    6 days ago

  • More public housing delivered in Auckland
    The Government’s investment in public housing is delivering more warm, dry homes with today’s official opening of 82 new apartments in New Lynn by the Housing Minister Megan Woods. The Thom Street development replaces 16 houses built in the 1940s, with brand new fit-for-purpose public housing that is in high ...
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    6 days ago

  • Agreement advanced to purchase up to 5 million COVID-19 vaccines
    The Government has confirmed an in-principle agreement to purchase up to 5 million COVID-19 vaccines – enough for 5 million people – from Janssen Pharmaceutica, subject to the vaccine successfully completing clinical trials and passing regulatory approvals in New Zealand, says Research, Science and Innovation Minister Megan Woods. “This agreement ...
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    6 days ago

  • Jobs for Nature funding will leave a conservation legacy for Waikanae awa
    Ninety-two jobs will be created to help environmental restoration in the Waikanae River catchment through $8.5 million of Jobs for Nature funding, Conservation Minister Kiritapu Allan announced today. “The new funding will give a four-year boost to the restoration of the Waikanae awa, and is specifically focussed on restoration through ...
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    6 days ago

  • New Dunedin Hospital project progresses to next stage
    As the new Dunedin Hospital project progresses, the Government is changing the oversight group to provide more technical input, ensure continued local representation, and to make sure lessons learnt from Dunedin benefit other health infrastructure projects around the country. Concept design approval and the release of a tender for early ...
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    6 days ago

  • Jump in apprentice and trainee numbers
    The number of New Zealanders taking up apprenticeships has increased nearly 50 percent, and the number of female apprentices has more than doubled. This comes as a Government campaign to raise the profile of vocational education and training (VET) begins. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and Education Minister Chris Hipkins announced ...
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    1 week ago

  • ReBuilding Nations Symposium 2020 (Infrastructure NZ Conference opening session)
    Tena koutou katoa and thank you for the opportunity to be with you today. Can I acknowledge Ngarimu Blair, Ngati Whatua, and Mayor Phil Goff for the welcome. Before I start with my substantive comments, I do want to acknowledge the hard work it has taken by everyone to ensure ...
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    1 week ago

  • New Zealand's biosecurity champions honoured
    Biosecurity Minister Damien O’Connor has paid tribute to the winners of the 2020 New Zealand Biosecurity Awards. “These are the people and organisations who go above and beyond to protect Aotearoa from pests and disease to ensure our unique way of life is sustained for future generations,” Damien O’Connor says. ...
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    1 week ago

  • Tourism Industry Aotearoa Conference
    speech to Tourism Industry Aotearoa annual summit Te Papa,  Wellington Introduction Nau mai, haere mai Tēnā koutou, tēnā koutou, Ka nui te mihi, ki a koutou. Thank you Tourism Industry Aotearoa for hosting today’s Summit. In particular, my acknowledgements to TIA Chair Gráinne Troute and Chief Executive Chris Roberts. You ...
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    1 week ago

  • Supermarkets announced as Government’s second market study
    The Government has today launched a market study to ensure New Zealanders are paying a fair price for groceries.   “Supermarkets are an integral part of our communities and economy, so it’s important to ensure that Kiwis are getting a fair deal at the checkout,” Minister of Commerce and Consumer ...
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    1 week ago

  • Masks to be worn on Auckland public transport and all domestic flights
    Masks will need to be worn on all public transport in Auckland and in and out of Auckland and on domestic flights throughout the country from this Thursday, Minister for COVID-19 Response Chris Hipkins said today. “I will be issuing an Order under the COVID-19 Response Act requiring the wearing ...
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    1 week ago

  • New Zealand signs Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership
    Increase to New Zealand’s GDP by around $2 billion each year Increase opportunities for NZ exporters to access regional markets Cuts red tape and offers one set of trade rules across the Asia Pacific region New government procurement, competition policy and electronic commerce offers NZ exporters increased business opportunities Prime ...
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    1 week ago

  • Minister acknowledges students as exams begin
    Education Minister Chris Hipkins has recognised the extraordinary challenges students have faced this year, ahead of NCEA and New Zealand Scholarship exams which begin on Monday. “I want to congratulate students for their hard work during a year of unprecedented disruption, and I wish students all the best as ...
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    1 week ago

  • Prime Minister meets with key ASEAN and East Asia Summit partners
    Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern today attended the ASEAN-New Zealand Commemorative Summit and discussed with Leaders a range of shared challenges facing the Indo-Pacific region, including: The ongoing management of the COVID-19 pandemic; The importance of working collectively to accelerate economic recovery; and Exploring further opportunities for partners to work more ...
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    2 weeks ago

  • Veterans Affairs Summit held in Korea
    A Ministerial Summit on Veterans’ Affairs was held in the Republic of Korea this week. Ministers with veteran responsibilities were invited from all 22 countries that had been part of the United Nations Forces during the Korean War (1950 – 1953). The Summit marked the 70th anniversary of the outbreak ...
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    2 weeks ago

  • Clear direction set for the education system, skills prioritised
    The Government has released a set of priorities for early learning through to tertiary education and lifelong learning to build a stronger, fairer education system that delivers for all New Zealanders. “The election delivered a clear mandate from New Zealanders to accelerate our plan to reduce inequalities and make more ...
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    2 weeks ago

  • A Progressive Agenda
    Speech to the Climate Change + Business Conference, November 12, 2020 Tena koutou katoa Thank you for inviting me to speak here today. It is great to see us all come together for a common cause: to redefine our future in the face of unprecedented times.  Covid-19 and climate change are ...
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    2 weeks ago

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