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Open mike 01/02/2020

Written By: - Date published: 7:00 am, February 1st, 2020 - 68 comments
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Open mike is your post.

For announcements, general discussion, whatever you choose.

The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy).

Step up to the mike …

68 comments on “Open mike 01/02/2020 ”

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  1. James 1
    1 February 2020 at 8:14 am

    Happy Brexit day all.

    Boris has done an amazing job getting this over the line and out smarting remoaners.

    this will be his legacy and it will be a good one.

  2. A 2
    1 February 2020 at 8:39 am

    Cover off the basic prep…2 months food, bleach, toilet paper, flu meds, prescription meds….imho the risk is now too high to ignore (even if this is not peer reviewed yet). Still time to get in before the herd.

      • Cinny 2.1.1
        1 February 2020 at 11:23 am

        Am hoping The Listening Post will do a story on the media coverage of the virus tonight. Fingers crossed. Roll on 9.30pm, I love that show.

      • Poission 2.1.2
        1 February 2020 at 12:09 pm

        And the insert protein in cov,is not present in other cov,an has significant similarity to HIV.

        The finding of 4 unique inserts in the 2019-nCoV, all of which have identity /similarity to amino acid residues in key structural proteins of HIV-1 is unlikely to be fortuitous in nature.

        https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.30.927871v1.full.pdf

        • RedLogix 2.1.2.1
          1 February 2020 at 3:23 pm

          And concluding with the sentences:

          Taken together, our findings suggest unconventional evolution of 2019-nCoV that warrants further investigation. Our work highlights novel evolutionary aspects of the 2019-nCoV and has implications on the pathogenesis and diagnosis of this virus.

          The phrase 'unconventional evolution' is intentionally vague; I wonder what they really want to say.

          • Poission 2.1.2.1.1
            1 February 2020 at 4:41 pm

            Shouldn't jump to conclusions,to quickly as it seems the virus is also a fast mutator.

            According to Lai, RNA viruses—viruses that have RNA as their genetic material rather than DNA—such as the Wuhan coronavirus and SARS, have a “high mutation rate,” which allows it to “change properties very quickly.”

            As an example, in the Lancet study, the RNA sequences isolated from 6 patients from the same household are different from each other, he noted. Lai said he observed in his previous research the “frequent occurrence of RNA recombination between different coronavirus strains,” a sign of the virus evolving.

            https://www.theepochtimes.com/china-underreporting-true-scale-of-deadly-viral-outbreak-expert-says_3218207.html

            It may have passed through HIV affected patients at some stage whose weakened immune response allowed for differential mutation.

            Interesting that the PRC authorities are using aids drugs as a treatment option.

      • pat 2.1.3
        1 February 2020 at 8:14 pm

        "As influenza is caused by a variety of species and strains of viruses, in any given year some strains can die out while others create epidemics, while yet another strain can cause a pandemic. Typically, in a year's normal two flu seasons (one per hemisphere), there are between three and five million cases of severe illness and around 650,000 deaths worldwide,"

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza

        For measles, the number (R0) is much larger: between 12 and 18.

        https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/roots-of-unity/understand-the-measles-outbreak-with-this-one-weird-number/

        • Poission 2.1.3.1
          1 February 2020 at 9:36 pm

          the mathematicians disagree.

          • pat 2.1.3.1.1
            1 February 2020 at 10:14 pm

            the mathematicians disagree with what?……that influenza kills approximately 650,000 in an average year?…or that the R nought ratio for measles is between 12 and 18?

            • Poission 2.1.3.1.1.1
              2 February 2020 at 10:55 am

              Their argument is the lag ,it is biased downwards being fat tailed (with cv) so comparisons with average qualities do not hold.

              https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1221486205847646208/photo/1

              • pat …
                2 February 2020 at 12:06 pm

                so neither is disputed…thats as expected as the analysis is performed by statisticians.

                The argument is the timing and environment (two variables) that potentially make comparisons pointless….it is reasonable to expect that the initial R0 value will be higher due to a lack of awareness and/or precaution, then there is the lag in reporting and analysis and also environmental differences.

                All reasonable assumptions, however the point was not the accuracy of comparisons but the fact that any exponential increase is of concern, especially the longer the period of inaction continues….whether 2-3 or 4.08 or higher. It would also be reasonable to expect that R value to fall now that (some) precautions are being implemented

                The virus in Wuhan had at least a five week start before any action was taken and has already spread outside the initial area, unsurprising given that China has a large mobile population living in many instances in close interaction, and given the fact that in has 140 million international visitors per annum and the incubation period is measured in many days….the horse has bolted.

                As the RNZ interviewed virologist noted its too late to contain the virus and the best chance is to develop a vaccine and distribute it as quickly as possible and any action taken now is to prevent as much spread as possible to buy time for that event…..the virus now exists and humans will have to learn to cope with it as they do influenza and measles. Did we call for Auckland to be quarantined during the recent measles epidemic, or Samoa even?

                Hysterics around closing boarders (for how long?) and contagion rates that are fairly typical (added to what appears a fairly low mortality rate) serve no purpose….indeed such a reaction has the potential to produce far more death and misery as vital supplies for large portions of the population become harder to obtain

    • weka 2.2
      1 February 2020 at 9:51 am

      "2 months food, bleach, toilet paper, flu meds, prescription meds"

      Most NZers should have that for quake prep anyway.

      "Still time to get in before the herd."

      You planning to go into isolation/quarrantine? 😉

      Someone that puts New Massive Contagion Risk in capitals on the front of their youtube is probably to be avoided. He's fear mongering, even if he's getting some details right.

      • A 2.2.1
        1 February 2020 at 4:15 pm

        I've been following him for years. He has a PhD in pathology from Duke, speciality in toxins, sub-speciality neurotoxins.

        Buying extra stuff that will get used later on anyway has little down side. Flu stuff I've brought costs less than $20 and that may not get used so might be given away. Twenty bucks to insure my safety. Hardly an over reaction.

        And yeah…people should have these kinds of preperations anyway, but they don’t. I could be because they moved and donated stuff they didn’t replace, ran out of money and used their stores, or maybe couldn’t afford them in the first place. But most people just don’t do it. They could handle a week and beyond that it’s iffy

    • A 2.3
      1 February 2020 at 9:58 pm

      Over the ditch Oz closes border to non Australians from China, or their immediate family. We need to follow this or they might come here..we are awfully handy.

      Isolation for 14 days is required for those returning to Aussie.

  3. Sanctuary 3
    1 February 2020 at 8:47 am

    How much space does the UK leaving the EU free up?

    1GB.

    If you want anymore, I'll just be over by the BBQ with the other dads wearing Hawaiian shirts.

  4. Dennis Frank 4
    1 February 2020 at 9:39 am

    Spinoff discusses media reform in Aotearoa: "A plan is in the works to transform state broadcasting in New Zealand, with some form of merger between TVNZ and Radio NZ on the cards." https://thespinoff.co.nz/the-bulletin/31-01-2020/the-bulletin-concerns-grow-in-public-media-merger-information-void/

    "the story was first broken by Radio NZ political editor Jane Patterson, and she provided this update about cabinet forging ahead with the work, with a goal to having it up and running by 2023. It would primarily be a public-service broadcaster, which is relevant because of the potential for culture clash between the purely non-commercial RNZ and commercial TVNZ network. But it could also have a mixed funding model, with some revenue coming from commercial sources."

    And "as Radio NZ’s Charlie Dreaver reports, criticism is mounting in the information vacuum. That’s partly because there is some commercial sensitivity in whatever gets decided, but as Victoria University media professor Peter Thompson put it, knowing what’s in the blueprint would allow the public to actually discuss what could happen."

    What strikes me is the lack of conceptual advance on what we've had the past 30-odd years, but perhaps that's why Faafoi was sent back to the drawing board by cabinet in December.

    "RNZ has also been told the amended proposal puts a specific emphasis on the fact the new company will be primarily a public service media outlet, and to ensure that is made crystal clear in any legislation, and through a charter. That would also help to alleviate some of the strongly expressed concerns some ministers had about a "culture clash" – namely the risk the public broadcasting ethos could be subsumed by an aggressive commercial imperative once the new company was established and operating in the media marketplace." https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/408355/new-details-revealed-as-cabinet-agrees-on-rnz-tvnz-public-broadcasting-decision

    So this thing will hinge on the viability of a new design, in which the balance between the public interest and the necessity of sensible economy in the management of the media is appropriate. I see no reason why both left & right cannot be satisfied simultaneously. The only reason that hasn't happened before is both bunches of jerks being lazy and performing poorly all the time.

    • Ad 4.1
      1 February 2020 at 10:51 am

      Honestly this just look alike another one of those government projects that was inevitable that they would have a go at, and almost inevitable that it would take multiple parliamentary terms to get anywhere if at all.

      We already have Maori television, which has plenty of public subsidy as well as advertising.

      TVNZ is so awful in achieving any public good benefit that it needs to die. So why don't they just let it?

      I don't see any need to tamper with RNZ. It’s evolving just fine.

      It will be very interesting to see how this business case evolves, but I am very skeptical.

      • millsy 4.1.1
        1 February 2020 at 11:56 am

        TVNZ is going to die, and be replaced by something else under the proposal.

        Though I think restarting TVNZ6 and TVNZ7 is probably the way to go. It was a real shame that National had those channels chopped, they were the closest thing that NZ would have to true public TV.

    • OnceWasTim 4.2
      1 February 2020 at 12:42 pm

      What's a little depressing about this 'project' is that the various 'stakeholders' involved all have their own vested interests and don't seem to include "the public" unless one is prepared to get involved with lobby groups. (I was at one time and still admire the efforts of the likes of Peter Thompson, Miles? and Co – but never really thought it was ambitious enough).

      For a population of 5 mill (and on that basis we hear the continued harping that means PSB is unaffordable and difficult ro achieve), the whole system is completely over-managed (last count about 7 different agencies involved complete with their enterage of Directors, Board members, CEO's et al)

      A lot of it is really down to political will, and possibly the fact that even if something half-decent gets implemented, you can be sure that if & when a new junta gets elected (with its commitment to the market the market, growth growth, demography and risk management), it'll immediately seek to destroy it.

      And I fear we’re probably just going to see another exodus of those who’ve given up in despair. Shame to see Jane Wrightson go in many ways. Al Jazeera will probably be spoiled for choice

  5. Dennis Frank 5
    1 February 2020 at 10:06 am

    About 18 months ago, the New Yorker reported on resurgent tribalism: "We live in a time of tribes. Not of ideologies, parties, groups, or beliefs—these don’t convey the same impregnability of political fortifications, or the yawning chasms between them. American politics today requires a word as primal as “tribe” to get at the blind allegiances and huge passions of partisan affiliation." https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/a-new-report-offers-insights-into-tribalism-in-the-age-of-trump

    "Tribes demand loyalty, and in return they confer the security of belonging. They’re badges of identity, not of thought. In a way, they make thinking unnecessary, because they do it for you, and may punish you if you try to do it for yourself. To get along without a tribe makes you a fool. To give an inch to the other tribe makes you a sucker."

    "More in Common, a research organization based in Europe and the United States, released a report called “Hidden Tribes: A Study of America’s Polarized Landscape.” It builds on the group’s prior work in France, Germany, and Italy—an effort to understand and counteract rising populism and fragmentation in the Western democracies. Throughout the past year, the report’s four authors surveyed eight thousand randomly chosen Americans, asking questions about “core beliefs”: moral values, attitudes toward parenting and personal responsibility, perceptions of threats, approaches to group identity. The authors then sorted people, based on their beliefs and values, into seven “tribes”: Progressive Activists, Traditional Liberals, Passive Liberals, Politically Disengaged, Moderates, Traditional Conservatives, Devoted Conservatives."

    So what we have here is an attempt at more sophisticated political analysis. We know the Dems & Reps are now functioning more like tribes than political parties. The question is why this morphing has occurred. The theory of the researchers needs to explain how seven organic tribes coalesce into the two archaic parties.

    "More in Common found that “tribal membership predicts differences in Americans’ views on various political issues better than demographic, ideological, and partisan groupings.” In other words, whether or not you think creativity is more important than good behavior in children is a better indicator of your political views than is your gender, your race, your income, or your party affiliation."

    “We have too much opinion research and not enough value research,” according to Tim Dixon, an Australian political activist and a founder of More in Common.

    "This is why the seven tribes are hidden. We’re used to seeing race, gender, region, religion, and other categories line up with political preferences in numbingly predictable ways. We rarely know the underlying world views that inform these opinions. The tribes in the report are different from the rigid and unchanging partisan monoliths of our national political debate… Away from the fun-house mirrors and the bullhorns of cable news and social media, people’s views are more nuanced and less easy to caricature. For example, eighty-one per cent of those interviewed believe that racism is a serious problem, but eighty-five per cent think that race should not be a factor in college admissions."

    "The 8% of Progressive Activists on the left and the 25% of Traditional and Devoted Conservatives on the right are less open to compromise, less ideologically flexible".

    Together they constitute a hardline third of the electorate. The majority two-thirds want compromise, and are fed-up with the parties. So the system has warped away from most people, to serve only the rabid left/right ideologues. No wonder anti-establishment feeling has escalated so much.

    • Ad 5.1
      1 February 2020 at 10:54 am

      Facebook enables us to form our own tribes, and we seem pretty good about it given its popularity.

      Ardern has about 700,000 Facebook followers and about 400,000 on Twitter. So social media is easily obliterating the tribal micro-distinctions, and ordinary politics here appears to be evolving just fine.

      • Sanctuary 5.1.1
        1 February 2020 at 11:04 am

        "…Ardern has about 700,000 Facebook followers…"

        I heard Hooton squarking this figure on the radio the other day.

        I took from it that he isn't her friend on her actual FB page.

    • Sacha 5.2
      1 February 2020 at 12:06 pm

      That is just the same old political single-axis spectrum. Seems novel only because the US has a rigid two-party structure.

      I found this NZ approach some years ago more interesting even though it comes from marketing people: https://www.8tribes.co.nz/tribe-summary.php

      Try the list of questions on their 'Find Your Tribe' page.

      • Dennis Frank 5.2.1
        1 February 2020 at 12:17 pm

        Yeah, I recall encountering that & identifying with Raglan, although a second look suggests I really have one foot in Cuba St – which, since I've always been averse to Wellingtonians, makes me feel quite uneasy… 🥶

        • OnceWasTim 5.2.1.1
          1 February 2020 at 1:35 pm

          You could always move to Lyttleton – there's elements of all 8 tribes there it seems to me. Pick a day, pick a tribe

          • Dennis Frank 5.2.1.1.1
            1 February 2020 at 1:58 pm

            Multicultural then, huh? What about you – identify with any of those 8? As Sacha observed, the 7-fold scheme featured by the New Yorker is just across the old linear axis, whereas the kiwi one seems more ethnic (ethnologists would no doubt point out that I'm using the term incorrectly, so I plead guilty in advance).

            • OnceWasTim 5.2.1.1.1.1
              1 February 2020 at 3:29 pm

              Bits and pieces of the last four I guess. It's changed over time having had to be amongst the first four (North Shore, Grey Lynn, Balclutha and Remmers ).

              That's not to say I'm a bit iffy about the Raglan tribe – just because often self-interest can take precedence.

              Probably up to others to give an opinion of me though. And when the North Shore tribe meet their maker, I'm not sure what it is they'll actually have 'achieved' other than the superficial

              • Dennis Frank …
                1 February 2020 at 4:30 pm

                Interesting, quite a mix. Traditional framing: "a well-rounded person". I do share the ethos of North Shore & Balclutha with you (probably due to boyhood in suburban New Plymouth in a heartland family).

                Not Remmers, and only the front part of Grey Lynn: "highly educated intelligentsia who value ideas above material things" since the other part of GL is pretentious/superficial.

                Although Wellingtonians are probably less the petty bureaucrats nowadays than they once were (boring conformists), Aucklanders are still just as shallow as ever (crass commercial). Bruce Jesson got it right with his mirror-glass framing. My circle of friends there are all alternative thinkers from the seventies and I suspect there's plenty more in Ak that I don't know personally. Acclimatised to the rat-race, the bullshit just rolls off them…

                Other peer-group affiliations from the past were identity-based too, and each co-created a culture that one could call tribal. The sixties rebels, the counter-culture. The hand-shake got replaced by the hug. Almost entirely apolitical. You can see why the Greens who emerged from that as a minority strand view today's Greens as somewhat alien life-forms..

                • OnceWasTim …
                  1 February 2020 at 4:46 pm

                  What would be quite an interesting post/thread would be to take the 8 tribes, and have commenters from The Standard develop each of the definitions further.

                  As in:

                  "The Grey Lynn Tribe – Intellectual
                  The highly educated intelligentsia who value ideas above material things and intellectualise every element of their lives. Their most prized possession is a painting by the artist of the moment, they frequent film festivals, feel guilty about discussing property values and deep down are uneasy about their passion for reality television………..

                  ………. the urban equivalent of Martinborough; though guilty about discussing property values and watching reality television, not averse to seeing investment gains or being addicted to Coronation Street; also not averse to a bit of name-dropping (such as my neighbour is JC) from time to time, or being a regular guest on "the Panel" with Wallace.

                  But I'd also suggest that any commenter should also have to write a self-criticism. I'll do mine a bit later – ankle biter to look after and amuse – but it'll go along the lines of "I can be a bit of a pratt at times"

      • Andre 5.2.2
        1 February 2020 at 12:22 pm

        Their "find your tribe" thingy reckons I'm Grey Lynn. Which, by their description and acquaintance with some actual Grey Lynn residents, is a group I actively dislike.

        • Sacha 5.2.2.1
          1 February 2020 at 12:27 pm

          It's the Grey Lynn of twenty years ago, I reckon. One that more people could afford to live in.

      • RedLogix 5.2.3
        1 February 2020 at 1:21 pm

        This has been around for quite a while now, and I think it was partly responsible for tilting my interest away from political partisanship towards value based thinking. For what it's worth I'm a roughly even mix of Grey Lynn and Raglan.

        There are lots of these sorts of models, and there is something useful to be taken away from most of them.

    • WeTheBleeple 5.3
      1 February 2020 at 12:27 pm

      Good food for thought. Thanks Dennis.

  6. Cinny 6
    1 February 2020 at 11:38 am

    Jeepers they voting regarding allowing new witnesses.
    Will those repug's stick together for their party or will any 'cross the floor' for the good of the people?

    Edit… the yay’s are 49 and the nay’s are 51.

    Bugger, no new witnesses. They are now going into recess.

    • Andre 6.1
      1 February 2020 at 11:53 am

      Meh.

      There's plenty of Repugs that acknowledge he clearly did it, it's impeachable, but they wouldn't vote for conviction and removal no matter what. Rubio's explanation of this is a real doozy.

      https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/31/politics/marco-rubio-donald-trump-senate-impeachment-trial/index.html

      The witness vote just means they now have to wear voting for a cover-up as well. Right now it's looking fairly likely what Bolton has to say will come dribbling out over the next few months anyway, along with a lot of what other potential witnesses might have said.

      • joe90 6.1.1
        1 February 2020 at 11:58 am

        Former Presidential candidate says it out loud.

        • Sabine 6.1.1.1
          1 February 2020 at 7:07 pm

          well they voted to burn down government as they knew it, they wanted a new order, get rid of the old, yada yada yada, i guess they succeeded.

          now, watch that drive.

          but in saying that, the republicans are the one that can disapear trump in a new york minute by declare the 25th on him. They can. 🙂 But so as long as he signs their tax cuts, their gutting of the social welfare net, the gutting of any environmental laws, the gutting of public schools and universities etc, they will do nothing. He is the hand that signs their laws. He is the hand that will drown government in a bath tub. It took them a few decades but they finally got the hand, and the cheap fuck he is, he is doing for a hand full of dollars that he charges on beds in his winter white house.

          oh well, no one could have forseen this….Right?

      • Dennis Frank 6.1.2
        1 February 2020 at 12:10 pm

        Yeah, but, as is often the case, the subtext may tell the real story. Who would be paranoid about a fundamentalist christian becoming president? Another, who wants to get there first.

        "He received his first communion as a Catholic in 1984 before moving back to Miami with his family a year later. He was confirmed and later married in the Catholic Church." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marco_Rubio

        Pence got born again. Doesn't say that happened to Rubio. That may put him in a different catholic tribe. Regardless, there may be rivalry rather than camaraderie between them.

        • Andre 6.1.2.1
          1 February 2020 at 12:18 pm

          Occam's Razor sez he's just scared of getting primaried by angry Drumpfkins in 2022 if he dares cross their fake-bronze idol.

    • aom 6.2
      1 February 2020 at 12:22 pm

      The Senate vote suggests that two of the three legs of state that were devised to protect democracy in the US have effectively been chopped off. That means???

  7. joe90 7
    1 February 2020 at 11:47 am

    'Murica, a failing state run by militias.

    https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/gunmen-some-in-masks-swarm-ky-capitol-for-2nd-amendment-rally

    • Cinny 7.1
      1 February 2020 at 1:00 pm

      Fork!!!! . And the types in those images also say that those who care about the planet are dangerous… what the actual fuck…dang..

      What that country allows is the meaning of insanity. 'Murica's normality.

      Agent orange has just expanded his travel ban. and I'm wondering how many at the rally in that tweet had strong Christian beliefs.

      Technology has evolved but not their constitution or mentality. Their election will be a stunner.

  8. joe90 8
    1 February 2020 at 12:56 pm

    Marvelous.

    A YouTube prankster seems to have tricked Katie Hopkins into picking up a “completely fake” award following which she delivered an offensive speech that saw her mock Muslims, Asian people and epilepsy sufferers.

    Josh Pieters said the former Apprentice contestant flew to Prague to accept the trophy on Monday (27 January).

    In footage from the “ceremony”, Hopkins – a far-right commentator – can be seen smiling with Pieters in front of a screen bearing the words “Campaign to Unify the Nation Trophy.”

    When she collects the award, the capital letters enlarge, spelling out the C-word.

    “It’s strange to hear nice things being said about yourself,” she can be heard saying.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/tv/news/katie-hopkins-youtube-josh-pieters-prank-fake-award-twitter-video-prague-a9310606.html

  9. joe90 9
    1 February 2020 at 1:10 pm

    Making America Great Again, innocent limb by innocent limb.

    • joe90 9.1
      1 February 2020 at 1:27 pm

      Of course he will.

      • Sabine 9.1.1
        1 February 2020 at 7:10 pm

        have a look at the East German wall, with its no mans lands, its mine fields, its self shooting systems and its not an escalation but a forseable step in the building of a fence that will do more to keep people in then out. As a reminder, the mines, will be on the US American side. Not the mexican side.

        But oh well, her fucking emails, and besides how much harm could he do, and besides we must be understanding of the white male working class with economic anxiety.

        Who would have forseen this shit, oh yeah……….

  10. Andre 10
    1 February 2020 at 4:53 pm

    Joe's most persuasive ad …

  11. joe90 11
    1 February 2020 at 6:41 pm

    Nothing's changed, Frank.

    "Trouble Every Day"

    Well I'm about to get sick
    From watchin' my TV
    Been checkin' out the news
    Until my eyeballs fail to see
    I mean to say that every day
    Is just another rotten mess
    And when it's gonna change, my friend
    Is anybody's guess

  12. joe90 12
    1 February 2020 at 7:06 pm

    Former President of Estonia:

    • Sabine 12.1
      1 February 2020 at 7:14 pm

      nope, now we are ruled by mafia for mafia. the russian mafia, the us mafia, the asian triads, the european mafia etc etc etc, i think we call them the billionaires class.

      I hope everyone who ever had issues with killary and bullshit, will eat crow. a lot of it, and without any seasoning.

    • Andre 12.2
      1 February 2020 at 9:14 pm

      Doubt it.

      As soon as there's a Dem prez again, Repugs will rediscover all over again the writings of Alexander Hamilton, the constitution, oversight and accountability, enforceability of subpoenas and all the rest of it.

      And they will either gaslight the fuck out of what just happened, or pretend it didn’t actually happen.

  13. Incognito 13
    1 February 2020 at 7:40 pm

    No coronavirus in NZ, at least not yet.

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/119206613/no-suspected-coronavirus-in-new-zealand-ministry-of-health-announce

    OTOH, the highly contagious corruptionvirus appears to be spreading unabated.

    • Poission 13.1
      1 February 2020 at 7:55 pm

      It may start to be self sustaining from other nodes (such as Beijing etc)

      Given that 2019-nCoV is no longer contained within Wuhan, other major Chinese cities are probably sustaining localised outbreaks. Large cities overseas with close transport links to China could also become outbreak epicentres, unless substantial public health interventions at both the population and personal levels are implemented immediately. Independent self-sustaining outbreaks in major cities globally could become inevitable because of substantial exportation of presymptomatic cases and in the absence of large-scale public health interventions. Preparedness plans and mitigation interventions should be readied for quick deployment globally.

      https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9/fulltext#%20

      BTW all the journals are open access in regard to papers on CV.

      on the other side oil demand is forecast to fall significantly.

      https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/natural-gas/013120-commodity-markets-weaken-with-equities-as-coronavirus-spreads

      **Platts Analytics worst-case scenario shows a drop of 2.6 million b/d in oil demand in February, and a 2 million b/d decline in March.

      **Platts Analytics best-case scenario shows a drop of 900,0000 b/d in oil demand for February, and a 650,000 b/d decline in March.

      **Platts Analytics best-case scenario shows global jet fuel demand declining by 618,000 b/d in February, while its worst-case scenario shows a decline of 1 million b/d.

  14. Sabine 14
    1 February 2020 at 8:07 pm

    all of this doom and gloom and i found this….

    we live in interesting times.

  15. Fireblade 15
    1 February 2020 at 9:07 pm

    Cypress Hill siz gangsta yo!

    Here's one for the orange POTUS…

    Insane In The Brain

  16. joe90 16
    1 February 2020 at 10:18 pm

    They could've saved themselves time if they’d just taken the stage and chanted MAGA!

    /

  17. sumsuch 17
    2 February 2020 at 2:18 am

    No time left except for main truth, fellow aliases. Though I appreciate all the detailers. Wider picture needs specific evidence. We need a Demosthenes, a Cicero, a Corbyn, a Sanders. A world of talk about reality. Rather than the present local players of the (84) game.

    Even Helen Clark , after leading the charge for the international poor is only up for our teeth. Step up one and all to try for us all NOW. Easy for us in 1935 with nothing to lose for keen worker intelligences. Now there is no money for the truth speakers. 'Meritocracy'. Or paying off the most talented , which has brought us to this silly end. The creatures of post 2000 Labour treat it like a game for their benefit. 35-ists knew their life-long sacrifice, particularly their personal lives. Robert Reid, Sue Bradford, Bernard Hickey, and all the so many rest of the heroes of Aotearoa who've looked 'beyond the money'. Speak and speak again , heroes. Pol scis don't take you seriously but you're our only hope.

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  • Asia New Zealand Foundation Chair and Board members announced
    Foreign Affairs Minister Nanaia Mahuta today announced the appointment of Dame Fran Wilde, DNZM, QSO, as the new Chair to the Board of the Asia New Zealand Foundation – Te Whītau Tūhono. “Dame Fran Wilde has been a trustee since 2019 and I am confident that her experience and deep ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 hours ago

  • Latest KiwiSaver Annual Report shows promising benefits for members
    The latest KiwiSaver Annual Report from the Financial Markets Authority (FMA), highlights how Government’s recent policy tweaks have positively benefitted New Zealanders, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Dr David Clark said today. “Fourteen people so far have withdrawn their funds early thanks to a rule modification made in March this year. ...
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    2 hours ago

  • Reasons for permitted travel across Alert Level boundary expanded
    From 11:59pm tonight additional reasons for permitted travel will be introduced for movement across the Auckland boundary, COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins says. “As this outbreak has shown Delta is highly transmissible, and in order to be confident of controlling its spread, restrictions at the Alert Level boundary have been ...
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    2 hours ago

  • Tenancy measures introduced to further support COVID-19 impacted businesses and tenants
    The Government has introduced changes to help ease the impacts of COVID-19 restrictions on both commercial and residential tenancies. As part of the COVID-19 Response Legislation Bill introduced to Parliament, measures are being taken to help businesses resolve disputes over commercial rent, as well as provide greater certainty for landlords ...
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    3 hours ago

  • Details of interest deductibility rules released
    The Government has released the draft legislation outlining the details of the policy limiting the deductibility of interest costs on residential property investments. Finance Minister Grant Robertson said the interest limitation proposals, announced in March, aim to stem investor demand for existing residential properties. They do not affect the main ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 hours ago

  • GPS sets long-term direction for housing, urban development
    The Government has today laid out its long-term vision for housing and urban development in Aotearoa New Zealand, ensuring we have the infrastructure and homes needed to nurture thriving communities in the decades to come. The Housing Minister Megan Woods says the Government Policy Statement on Housing and Urban Development (GPS-HUD) ...
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    6 hours ago

  • Government welcomes collaboration between Vector and X
    A move by Vector to form a strategic collaboration with X, (formerly Google X) to work together on the virtualisation of the Auckland electricity grid highlights the type of innovation that can help decarbonise and decentralise the electricity system, says Energy and Resources Minister Megan Woods. “The visualisation of New ...
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    7 hours ago

  • PM farewells Governor General Dame Patsy Reddy
    The Rt Hon Dame Patsy Reddy completes her five year term as Governor-General of New Zealand today. “Today marks the end of an eventful term of office for Dame Patsy and I want to acknowledge and thank her for her tireless service to New Zealand over the last five years,” ...
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    8 hours ago

  • Government delivers on improving health and equity outcomes for women
    ACC cover for maternal childbirth injuries Government working to improve and strengthen maternity services The Government is laying the foundations for a better future by improving equity and health outcomes for women through amending ACC legislation and an updated Maternity Action Plan. “Amongst a suite of changes, we’re proposing to ...
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    9 hours ago

  • Backing world-class innovation in New Zealand
    $12 million Government investment to support cutting-edge R&D in New Zealand by international businesses Dawn Aerospace and Merlin Labs join Innovative Partnership’s Airspace Integration Trials programme MOU signed with Air New Zealand to conduct a nationwide feasibility study into sustainable aviation fuels The Government is propelling cutting-edge innovation through a ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    23 hours ago

  • One-way quarantine free travel dates confirmed for RSE scheme
    From 4 October RSE workers from Vanuatu can begin arriving into New Zealand From 12 October RSE workers Samoa and Tonga from can begin arriving into New Zealand As part of a programme of work to reopen our borders and reconnect with the world, the Government has announced quarantine free ...
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    24 hours ago

  • More community grants to support youth mental wellbeing
    The Government continues to make more mental health and wellbeing supports available to young people to ensure services are there when and where they need them, Health Minister Andrew Little says. “More than twenty community-led projects have now received a funding boost through The Youth Mental Wellbeing Fund to keep ...
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    24 hours ago

  • Self-isolation pilot to start with 150 people
    The goal of safely re-opening our borders and developing new ways for people to travel will start with a self-isolation pilot, COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins confirmed today. “As part of the Reconnecting New Zealanders plan announced in August, the self-isolation pilot will look at self-isolation for vaccinated travellers who ...
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    24 hours ago

  • Poroporoaki: Waka Joseph Nathan
    E Waka e, kei hea ra koe, kua ngaro nei i te iwi e, E kawe nei i ngā rongo, i ngā mahara mōu, i ngā wawata i hua mai i a koe. E Waka e, haere ra, kei te tuahu koe o te ati a toa, Kei poho tonu ...
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    1 day ago

  • Canterbury school students get hands-on with food and fibre careers
    Secondary school students in Canterbury will have the breadth of food and fibre careers showcased to them thanks to a new initiative launched today, Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor said. Secondary School Employer Partnerships (SSEP) Canterbury is a collaboration between the Ministry for Primary Industries and SmartNZ, a charitable trust that connects ...
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    1 day ago

  • Tuvalu language revival and COVID-19
    Te Vaiaso o te Gana Tuvalu 2021 - Tuvalu Language Week moves online due to the uncertainty around COVID-19 said the Minister for Pacific Peoples Aupito William Sio.  “However it is a timely reminder of the power of embracing both traditional and new ways of doing things. It has been ...
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    2 days ago

  • Strengthened reporting will improve abortion and sterilisation services
    Associate Minister of Health Dr Ayesha Verrall has announced new data and reporting regulations which will help improve abortion and sterilisation services in New Zealand, by painting a clearer picture of the need in our communities. “The Government is committed to ensuring everyone who needs to access abortion services can, ...
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    3 days ago

  • United Nations General Assembly: 76th General Debate Statement
    E ngā Mana, e ngā Reo, Rau Rangatira mā o tēnei Whare Nui o te Ao Prestigious people, Speakers of note, Chiefs one and all of this General Assembly Ngā mihi mahana ki o koutou katoa, mai i toku Whenua o Aotearoa Warm greetings to you all from my home ...
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    3 days ago

  • APEC 2021 Women and the Economy Forum prioritises women’s economic empowerment
    Minister for Women Jan Tinetti today chaired the virtual APEC 2021 Women and the Economy Forum, which is working to address outstanding issues for women and girls across the region as it recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic. The forum brought together Ministers and representatives from 21 economies to discuss gender ...
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    3 days ago

  • Government invests in restoring iconic South Canterbury river valleys
    The Government is investing up to $18.4 million over four years to create jobs and help restore braided river valleys, alpine and pastoral lands in the South Island as part of its Jobs for Nature programme Land Information Minister, Damien O’Connor announced. Toitū Te Whenua Land Information New Zealand (LINZ) ...
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    4 days ago

  • Upper Hauraki to move to Alert Level 2
    Upper Hauraki will move to Alert Level 2 from 11:59pm tomorrow, 25 September, COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins confirmed today. After positive cases were detected in the Upper Hauraki area on Sunday, extra Alert Level restrictions were put in place to immediately prevent any wider transmission of the virus.  “We’ve ...
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    4 days ago

  • Report into Aotearoa New Zealand’s export controls system released
    Foreign Affairs Minister Nanaia Mahuta today welcomed the findings of an independent review into Aotearoa New Zealand’s export controls system, which regulates the export of goods to foreign militaries, police forces or paramilitaries. Produced by David Smol, a former Chief Executive of the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment, the ...
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    4 days ago

  • New District Court Judge appointed
    Attorney-General David Parker has announced the appointment of Brett Crowley of Wellington as a District Court Judge.  He is currently the Wellington Public Defender and started his career as a staff solicitor working in a range of litigation including criminal defence work. He went to the bar in 1999 specialising ...
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    4 days ago

  • Mental health stocktake shows strong progress
    The first report of the Government’s Implementation Unit has found strong progress has been made since the Mental Health and Addictions Package was announced in 2019. “The report notes most initiatives funded in the Budget 2019 package are on track to deliver what is expected by 2023/24,” Grant Robertson said. ...
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    4 days ago

  • Working together to grow the West Coast
    A project that has been crucial in allowing businesses to continue during the tourism downturn is among a number of initiatives to receive a boost from the Government’s Jobs For Nature programme, Conservation Minister Kiri Allan says. Sustaining South Westland is an extension of an initiative set up last year ...
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    4 days ago

  • Next steps to improve safety in wake of Whakaari White Island tragedy
    The Government is moving to improve safety in light of the Whakaari White Island tragedy and has released proposals to reinforce safety standards in registered adventure activities. The package of proposals includes: Strengthening requirements for how operators, landowners and the regulator manage natural hazard risks Improving how risks are monitored, ...
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    4 days ago

  • New Zealand donates more COVID-19 vaccines to COVAX and the Pacific
    Foreign Affairs Minister Hon Nanaia Mahuta and Associate Health Minister Aupito William Sio announced today that New Zealand is donating additional Pfizer vaccines to the Pacific and AstraZeneca vaccines to the COVAX Facility, to support equitable access to COVID-19 vaccines. “New Zealand is donating 708,000 doses of the AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine ...
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    4 days ago

  • Speech to the Property Council of New Zealand
    Kia ora koutou katoa   Is it a pleasure to be able to speak with you today, and to be able to answer some questions you may have. I would like to acknowledge the organisers of this event, the Property Council. The theme of this year’s conference is City Shapers. Together ...
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    5 days ago

  • Additional MIQ for Christchurch
    An additional hotel will be added to our network of managed isolation and quarantine facilities, COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins said today. “I have approved and Cabinet is in the final stages of signing off The Quality Hotel Elms in Christchurch as a new managed isolation facility,” Chris Hipkins said. ...
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    5 days ago

  • NZ COVID-19 response earns another major digital investment
    Minister for the Digital Economy and Communications Dr David Clark welcomes Amazon’s Web Services’ (AWS) decision to establish a Cloud Region on New Zealand shores, further boosting New Zealand’s growing digital sector, and providing a vote of confidence in the direction of New Zealand’s economic recovery. “Amazon is the second ...
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    5 days ago

  • New Zealand invests in cutting edge cancer R&D
    Scaling up the manufacture of CAR T-cell cancer therapy for clinical trials Advancing New Zealand’s biomedical manufacturing capability Supporting future international scientific collaborations Transforming cancer care with targeted, affordable solutions Research, Science and Innovation Minister Hon Dr Megan Woods has announced that the fight against COVID-19 will not stop the ...
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    5 days ago

  • Expert group appointed to lead New Zealand’s future health system
    An outstanding group of people with extensive and wide-ranging governance and health experience have been appointed to lead the Māori Health Authority and Health New Zealand, Health Minister Andrew Little says. “This Government is building a truly national health system to provide consistent, high-quality health services right across the country. This ...
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    5 days ago

  • Funding to help clean up contaminated sites
    The Government is supporting the clean-up of contaminated sites in Northland, Dunedin and Southland to reduce risk to people’s health and protect the environment. Environment Minister David Parker said the funding announced today, through the Contaminated Sites Remediation Fund, will help us turn previously hazardous sites into safe, usable public ...
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    5 days ago

  • Predator Free apprenticeships open up new job opportunities
    The expansion of a predator free apprenticeship programme is an opportunity for more people to kick-start a conservation career, Conservation Minister Kiri Allan says. “The Predator Free Apprenticeship Programme is focused on increasing the number of skilled predator control operators in New Zealand through a two-year training programme. “The Trust ...
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    6 days ago

  • Further NCEA support confirmed for Auckland students
    The number of Learning Recognition Credits for senior secondary school students will be increased for Auckland students, Education Minister Chris Hipkins confirmed today. This recognises the extended time these students will spend in Alert Levels 3 and 4. “It means students in Auckland will have a fair opportunity to attain ...
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    6 days ago

  • Long-term pathway next step to better mental wellbeing for New Zealanders
    The Government is taking a new approach to support people who experience mental distress, Health Minister Andrew Little says. “Kia Manawanui Aotearoa – Long-term pathway to mental wellbeing (Kia Manawanui) is the first 10-year plan of its kind that targets the cause of mental distress and also sets out how ...
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    6 days ago

  • Keeping our Police safe to keep our communities safe
    The Government is committed to keeping our frontline police officers safe, so they in turn can keep New Zealanders safe – with one of the largest investments in frontline safety announced by Police Minister Poto Williams at the Police College today.   The $45 million investment includes $15.496 million in ...
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    6 days ago

  • Clean Vehicles Bill passes first checkpoint
    The Land Transport (Clean Vehicles) Amendment Bill will help New Zealand drive down transport emissions by cleaning up the light vehicle fleet, Transport Minister Michael Wood says. The Bill passed its first reading today and will establish the legislative framework for key parts of the Government’s Clean Car Package, including ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago

  • Funding boost supports ongoing Māori COVID-19 response
    The Government is responding to the need by whānau Māori and Māori Health providers to support their ongoing work responding to COVID-19 and to continue increasing rates of Māori vaccination, Associate Minister for Health (Māori Health), Peeni Henare and Minister for Māori Development Willie Jackson announced today.   This increased ...
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    7 days ago

  • Significant increase to COVID-19 penalties
    Penalties for breaches of COVID-19 orders are set to significantly increase from early November 2021 to better reflect the seriousness of any behaviour that threatens New Zealand’s response to the virus, COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins said today. “Throughout this Delta outbreak we’ve seen the overwhelming majority of people doing ...
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    1 week ago

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