Open mike 01/08/2023

58 comments on “Open mike 01/08/2023 ”

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1. lprent 1

   1 August 2023 at 3:54 pm

   Well that was annoying.

   It appears that a automated update last night managed to knock the internal server network offline. So the database wasn't talking to the php.

   My alarms didn't trigger because all of the bits were working individually – just not together. I didn't read the site of my personal my email until late in the day because of work!

   Back up and running, now on 6.2.0.26 kernel.

   I’ll add a website page checker. But that will have to be a admin page so that I can test without any exterior caching.
   • lprent 1.1

     1 August 2023 at 3:56 pm

     BTW: I'd be interested what conspiracy theories came up during the site absence 🙂 There are usually a few.
     • Johnr 1.1.1

       1 August 2023 at 4:10 pm

       Don't worry about it man. Shit happens. Your tech explain went way over my head.

       I'm just happy that you do what you do. Lefty comment is a rare event these days.So I truly appreciate your efforts. Travel well.
     • Dennis Frank 1.1.2

       1 August 2023 at 4:26 pm

       I'd be interested what conspiracy theories came up during the site absence 🙂

       Wondered about that for a coupla secs, realised a cyber-attack would only be likely if the left was being competitive. Figured that made a material malfunction likely!

       a automated update last night managed to knock the internal server network offline

       So a system malfunction rather than hardware? That's way more interesting. When I was a kid the standard explanation for those was gremlins…
     • adam 1.1.3

       1 August 2023 at 8:32 pm

       Windows is a dog, it barked hard and made the site fall over.
2. Dennis Frank 2

   1 August 2023 at 4:31 pm

   I suspected Labour could drop below 30% but how far was a surprise: https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2023/08/01/boom-roy-morgan-poll-mmp-spectrum-splintering-labour-party-collapse/

   Roy Morgan poll for July:

   National: 33.5 (3.5+)

   Labour: 26 (4.5-)

   Act: 14 (1-)

   Greens: 9 (0.5-)

   Maori: 6 (1-)

   NZ First: 5 (2+)

   TOP: 4 (1+)

   NZF revival at Labour's expense: the old houdini jack in the box effect…
   • Chris 2.1

     1 August 2023 at 5:19 pm

     well, maybe the best we can hope for now is that luxon needs peters, peters demands deputy pm, then the whole thing implodes like it did in 1998.
     • weka 2.1.1

       1 August 2023 at 7:32 pm

       or we sort our shit out and give Labour, Greens and/or TPM as much support between now and the election as we can.

       Remember what happened in 2017? Everyone said the left would lose. It didn't.
       • miravox 2.1.1.1

         1 August 2023 at 7:52 pm

         +100
   • Bearded Git 2.2

     1 August 2023 at 6:04 pm

     It's not great but it does follow a couple of bad weeks for Labour, much of this contrived by the MSM.

     Still Lab/Gr/TPM 41.0 versus Nat/ACT 47.5 is recoverable providing Winston gets 4.9% not 5%.

     The Nats are all over the place on funding their massively expensive RONS policy.

     Luxon saying this week that he does not support sex education in schools may wake a few people up.
     • PsyclingLeft.Always 2.2.1

       1 August 2023 at 6:28 pm

       The Nats are all over the place on funding their massively expensive RONS policy.

       Well apparently China has some $ billions up for grabs….

       https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/08/election-2023-national-leaves-door-open-to-china-funding-new-new-zealand-roads.html
     • Phillip ure 2.2.2

       1 August 2023 at 6:55 pm

       @ b.g.

       Top is making a showing…and should they get to 5% @ election one would think they would want to be part of a progressive coalition…rather than a reactionary/far right coalition..

       (I have read their policies…and there is some good progressive stuff/ideas in there..)

       It would be interesting to see some polling from the seat in christchurch the leader is standing in…

       I also think the minor party wave is just beginning…and I expect green/tmp/top to all do better than these numbers…
       • Bearded Git 2.2.2.1

         2 August 2023 at 5:50 am

         Good point Phillip, though I think TOP tends to steal Green votes in a Teal manner.
         • Phillip ure 2.2.2.1.1

           2 August 2023 at 9:59 am

           Top can also be a home for those soft national voters..who are deeply uneasy about act..

           Not all national voters are scorched earth/climate change denying far-right nutbars…

           And wouldn't be keen about being lumped in with them..
     • Mac1 2.2.3

       2 August 2023 at 1:17 pm

       Bearded Git, I'd appreciate a link to Luxon's view on sex education in schools. As a former teacher of that subject, and knowing the results at that time of the effectiveness of that upon teenage pregnancy rates in our province as reported by the local health unit, I'd of course be opposed to such a retrograde move, but I'd like to see exactly what he said, and upon what evidence.
       • Mac1 2.2.3.1

         2 August 2023 at 2:47 pm

         I can't find anything from Luxon but Nicola Willis did get reported as follows.

         https://www.thenews.co.nz/news/national-leaders-hold-public-meeting/

         "Ms Willis replied she was a mum, too, and had four children aged from 7 to 13.

         ‘‘Here’s how I feel about sexual education. That’s the job for me and my husband to do with our kids, based on our values and our views of the world . . .I want my education system focused on teaching my children how to read, how to write and how to do maths.’’

         In 2001 NZers were 80% in favour of sex education in schools. What has changed?https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/sex-education-in-class-fine-with-most-parents/

         I suspect now the issue is about gender identity, as the questioner in the Willis news report seems to suggest, and about National's back to the basics three hour daily focus on the 3 Rs.

         I suspect also that the religious right is being courted by National which has a strong caucus following to drive that.
   • observer 2.3

     1 August 2023 at 6:16 pm

     I wouldn't pay much attention to dear old Roy, whether the poll is good or bad for whoever you support. The chances of NZF/TMP/TOP getting those numbers are negligible.

     Tomorrow TV3 have a poll out, a better guide. Labour will probably be down but the minor parties' numbers will be more credible.
     • Phillip ure 2.3.1

       1 August 2023 at 6:36 pm

       The thing is observer….that nat rad reported that roy morgan were right on the money@ last election…

       Hard to scoff at that…eh…?

       And a bit more credible than your reckons….d’yareckon..?
       • bwaghorn 2.3.1.1

         1 August 2023 at 6:47 pm

         I certainly have problems voting labour at the mo, starting to think chippie ain't got it, as terrible as it sounds Winston is moving into veiw , as a counter to act and National, better 3 years of stasis imho.

         Greens frontrunner at the mo.

         But if it's a slam dunk for the right I dunno
         • bwaghorn 2.3.1.1.1

           1 August 2023 at 6:48 pm

           When your minister of revenues quits and you are making policy on the fly it ain't good
         • Phillip ure 2.3.1.1.2

           1 August 2023 at 7:05 pm

           @ waghorn..

           I don't see it as a slam dunk for the right…

           I see it as being far to close to call..

           But it seems to come down to lab/grn/tmp/top ..

           Vs. nact with nz first..(tho'peters has left himself some wriggle room..j.ardern being gone seems to have stilled his ire somewhat..and he dislikes national as much as he does labour…so he is too hard to call..)
       • observer 2.3.1.2

         1 August 2023 at 7:14 pm

         You don't need RNZ or my "reckons". Google the actual polls.

         Roy Morgan consistently overstates minor party support. Always have. They weren't very wrong in 2020, to be fair, but they weren't "on the money" either.

         https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2020_New_Zealand_general_election
       • Bearded Git 2.3.1.3

         2 August 2023 at 5:52 am

         I heard that too Mr. Ure, though it was Bryce Edwards saying it so should probably be checked.
   • Belladonna 2.4

     1 August 2023 at 7:18 pm

     I find Roy Morgan particularly unconvincing on the minor minor parties. They don't seem to be in line with any of the other polls. And consistently over-inflate the results for both them, and the GP and ACT (in comparison to other polls)
     In their last one they had TPM at 7% (dropping to 6% in this current one); but the general average of polls for TPM has been around 4%.

     https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2023_New_Zealand_general_election

     Either RM have a hot line to a better interview group – which more accurately reflects the voting public, than any of the rest of the pollsters; or they are consistent outliers.

     I question why TPM and the GP would have dropped from their last poll (nothing in the media coverage would incline me to believe that their support has dropped – where would they be going?)

     I can more easily believe that Labour ex-supporters would go to TOP and NZF (more as a brake on a potential N/ACT coalition, than through conviction) – especially with the bad news coverage that Labour have been suffering through recently. But, I'd be surprised if this trend is anything like as pronounced in other polls.
     • Cricklewood 2.4.1

       1 August 2023 at 8:03 pm

       Its that exact effect that can make polls a self fufulling prohecy.
     • Bearded Git 2.4.2

       2 August 2023 at 6:03 am

       Bella-the problem with that Wiki poll of polls is that it includes the flaky Horizon poll.
   • Mike the Lefty 2.5

     2 August 2023 at 5:57 am

     I was surprised at NZ First's result, because Winston has said or done very little up til now and I must assume that it is the traditional hardcore Winstonophiles who are waking up after a near six-year slumber.

     Will certainly add some interesting possibilities into the mix.
     • Dennis Frank 2.5.1

       2 August 2023 at 6:44 am

       Yeah, seems more of a reaction to nothing from Labour. Oldies who are conservative enough to prefer Winston's hand-brake option. Still floating, could return…
3. Shanreagh 3

   1 August 2023 at 4:33 pm

   Yes a cyber attack for a moment, and then realism set in and I thought it was probably a nuts and bolts site issue.

   Thanks for fixing it……makes me appreciate having this forum.
4. Patricia Bremner 4

   1 August 2023 at 4:55 pm

   Thank you for your good work.
   • Phillip ure 4.1

     1 August 2023 at 6:44 pm

     My first thought was: what have I done now..?
5. Red Blooded One 5

   1 August 2023 at 5:00 pm

   http://Complaint about behaviour of National MP Tim Van De Molen received by Speaker https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/494923/complaint-about-behaviour-of-national-mp-tim-van-de-molen-received-by-speaker

   Is Tim Van de Molen receiving Anger Management Training from Uffindell?
   • bwaghorn 5.1

     1 August 2023 at 6:50 pm

     Vance and Obrien will be baying for blood.
     • adam 5.1.1

       1 August 2023 at 8:38 pm

       I'll give a $5 donation to this site, if Vance and Obrien say more than the bare minimum to nothing at all.
       • Phillip ure 5.1.1.1

         2 August 2023 at 9:53 am

         Five bucks eh..?

         Are you noted for your philanthropy..?
   • Anne 5.2

     1 August 2023 at 9:48 pm

     So, the incident occurred a month ago but has only now been referred to the Privileges Committee? Looking at the photo included in the link… I wouldn't want to meet him on a dark night. 😮
6. Red Blooded One 6

   1 August 2023 at 5:04 pm

   http://ACT MP Simon Court committed 'clear breach' of confidentiality – Privileges Committee https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/494520/act-mp-simon-court-committed-clear-breach-of-confidentiality-privileges-committee

   and ACT will be calling for his resignation I'm sure. /sarc
7. Roy Cartland 7

   1 August 2023 at 5:41 pm

   Great re site. I did wonder, but knew you'd be into it.

   It's such an important resource, this
8. Kat 8

   1 August 2023 at 7:01 pm

   Something happened when you pushed that button…..

   On the Roy Morgan poll, apart from those that either quit or lost their seats the only difference in National personnel from 2020 is Christopher Luxon and his ratings are low. So if the polls are reflecting any form of reality then we are a truly mixed up country.

   Labour has not introduced any radical policies to cause a major or even minor shift in direction since 2020. This polling on "wrong direction" is misleading and a complete nonsense. If such a high percentage believe that true then that alone just shows how fickle the electorate is.

   God defend NZ has more meaning than ever……if these polls are to be believed.
   • Belladonna 8.1

     1 August 2023 at 7:07 pm

     Yes, "wrong direction" on it's own is pretty meaningless. Do people feel that the country/government needs to be moving further 'left' or further 'right'? ATM – both of these are lumped together – giving very little guidance.
     • pat 8.1.1

       1 August 2023 at 7:13 pm

       "Wrong direction" on its own or not, has great significance for the incumbents…it certainly indicates the level of support for existing policy direction.
       • Belladonna 8.1.1.1

         1 August 2023 at 7:20 pm

         But doesn't tell them whether they need to be more centrist, or more extreme.
         • pat 8.1.1.1.1

           1 August 2023 at 7:22 pm

           Dosnt matter…tells them they are not wanted …and alternatives will be sought, or the effort will not be made.
           • Belladonna 8.1.1.1.1.1

             1 August 2023 at 8:19 pm

             Well, if you're the party concerned, it matters quite a bit. It's very hard to move with the popular wind, if you can't tell which direction it's going in!
             • pat …

               1 August 2023 at 9:59 pm

               Tis too late to appeal to the 'popular winds' for the incumbents….even if they knew which way they were blowing
     • ianmac 8.1.2

       1 August 2023 at 7:55 pm

       Yes. If I was asked about direction I don't know what I would say as I don't know what it means. Its like Mood of the Boardroom. Huh?
   • Jimmie 8.2

     1 August 2023 at 7:52 pm

     I'm not sure the leader approval ratings have much bearing on election outcomes. 1999 is a classic example. Helen Clark’s approval ratings as opposition leader were in single digits from memory and she went on to win the next three elections. Jim Bolger wasn’t loved by many either but he still managed to win three elections as well. Labour in 2023 have a feel of 1989/90. They have lost a popular leader and the replacement is struggling to fill the PM shoes….
     • observer 8.2.1

       1 August 2023 at 8:02 pm

       You're mixing up 1999 and 1996. It's a common mistake, people often say "Oh, Clark's ratings were rock bottom" (which is correct, they were … in 1996). But the essential point is that she was kept on as leader for the following election after defeat, which no Nat/Lab leader has done since. Caucus loyalty to Clark was very strong, and it's unlikely Luxon or Hipkins would have anything like as much.

       https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1999_New_Zealand_general_election
     • Belladonna 8.2.2

       1 August 2023 at 8:22 pm

       I agree. I think that (setting Hipkins aside) NZ has had 2 very personally popular PMs in a row (Key and Ardern) – and we've forgotten what it's like to have an 'ordinary' PM – one who doesn't have a significant degree of personal popularity – where voters are choosing a party (and, God help us, even a suite of policies) rather than a person.
       • observer 8.2.2.1

         1 August 2023 at 8:35 pm

         Poor Bill …
   • Corey 8.3

     1 August 2023 at 10:54 pm

     A lot of the reason people, especially young people, hate labour is because they haven't been radical on housing, or poverty or the environment or healthcare.

     Labour ran as low key populists in 2017 and in 2020, were given a mandate to everything they promised my generation in 2017 on housing and inequality.

     They didn't because they thought if they were as centrist as possible they could hold onto older voters.

     The things they didn't do infuriated my generation.

     The things they did do infuriated older voters.

     By trying to be everything to everyone, they've become nothing to anyone.
     • Dennis Frank 8.3.1

       2 August 2023 at 5:47 am

       Good comment.

       A younger gen way of putting it: there's no there there…
9. MickeyBoyle 9

   1 August 2023 at 7:05 pm

   Disastrous poll for the left today. I hope the tide turns and we can get back on track and win in October, but it isn't looking great, especially with a very meek and mild Hipkins.

   Ruling out wealth and a CGT although unpopular, is imo a big error. People on the left from what I see want transformational change not tinkering around the edges. But I can understand why he did it.

   I'm going to look at Peters if Labour or the Greens don't look like they can form a government. At least Peters will ruin the majority of NACTs plans and we can have at least one term of no progress for the right.
   • Bearded Git 9.1

     2 August 2023 at 6:08 am

     If you are going to vote for Peters you may as well vote for the Nats or ACT. He will have little influence in a coalition and they may not need him.

     Surely the Greens are a better bet?
     • MickeyBoyle 9.1.1

       2 August 2023 at 9:46 pm

       The Greens can't spoil NACTs party, Winston can. And given Winston's history, I think he will.
10. Jester 10

    1 August 2023 at 7:31 pm

    There is a TV3 poll tomorrow night that may give a clearer picture.
11. Descendant Of Smith 11

    1 August 2023 at 8:28 pm

    Just bringing stamp duty back to help further cool the housing market would be good.

    Change buying houses under kiwibuild to only buying the house and the state retaining the land would help many more low income people into housing. The Singapore model of this means less debt to banks and more into the productive economy.

    “This book will show how Singapore has used its scarce land resources to balance between maximising rent revenue and using its landed property for public good, to provide public housing for the majority of its population and public industrial space for the transnational companies locating in Singapore. The state land in Singapore is treated as a use value (public housing and industrial space), as an exchange value (leased for private developers) and as a source of public revenue (land leases and property tax). This triple way of using public land has caused Singapore’s economy to grow and, paradoxically, Singapore’s development companies to prosper.”

    https://www.landandliberty.net/urban-land-rent-singapore-as-a-property-state/
    • Phillip ure 11.1

      2 August 2023 at 10:05 am

      Yeah….we could start with the golf courses…

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