Open mike 01/08/2023
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3:49 pm, August 1st, 2023 - 58 comments
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What've I gotta do to make you love me?What've I gotta do to make you care?What do I do when lightning strikes me?And I wake up and find that you're not thereWhat've I gotta do to make you want me?Mmm hmm, what've I gotta do to be heard?What do I ...7 days ago - A Palate Cleanser
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Hundreds more Palestinians have died in recent days as Israel’s assault on Gaza continues and humanitarian aid, including food and medicine, is blocked. ...3 days ago
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- NZ must act on Israel’s slaughter of children
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The Green Party is concerned by the impact the Government’s proposed changes to procurement processes could have on people and planet. ...2 weeks ago
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Ngā mihi ki a koutou katoa It is a great pleasure to be here with you this morning. ...2 weeks ago
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The next Labour Government will prioritise jobs, health and homes so Kiwis and Kiwi businesses have the opportunity to thrive. ...2 weeks ago
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Labour leader Chris Hipkins has unveiled a new economic team as part of a caucus reshuffle. ...2 weeks ago
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Police have referred 20 offenders to Destiny Church-affiliated programmes Man Up and Legacy as ‘wellness providers’ in the last year, raising concerns that those seeking help are being recruited into a harmful organisation. ...3 weeks ago
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Well that was annoying.
It appears that a automated update last night managed to knock the internal server network offline. So the database wasn't talking to the php.
My alarms didn't trigger because all of the bits were working individually – just not together. I didn't read the site of my personal my email until late in the day because of work!
Back up and running, now on 6.2.0.26 kernel.
I’ll add a website page checker. But that will have to be a admin page so that I can test without any exterior caching.
BTW: I'd be interested what conspiracy theories came up during the site absence 🙂 There are usually a few.
Don't worry about it man. Shit happens. Your tech explain went way over my head.
I'm just happy that you do what you do. Lefty comment is a rare event these days.So I truly appreciate your efforts. Travel well.
I'd be interested what conspiracy theories came up during the site absence 🙂
Wondered about that for a coupla secs, realised a cyber-attack would only be likely if the left was being competitive. Figured that made a material malfunction likely!
a automated update last night managed to knock the internal server network offline
So a system malfunction rather than hardware? That's way more interesting. When I was a kid the standard explanation for those was gremlins…
Windows is a dog, it barked hard and made the site fall over.
I suspected Labour could drop below 30% but how far was a surprise: https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2023/08/01/boom-roy-morgan-poll-mmp-spectrum-splintering-labour-party-collapse/
Roy Morgan poll for July:
National: 33.5 (3.5+)
Labour: 26 (4.5-)
Act: 14 (1-)
Greens: 9 (0.5-)
Maori: 6 (1-)
NZ First: 5 (2+)
TOP: 4 (1+)
NZF revival at Labour's expense: the old houdini jack in the box effect…
well, maybe the best we can hope for now is that luxon needs peters, peters demands deputy pm, then the whole thing implodes like it did in 1998.
or we sort our shit out and give Labour, Greens and/or TPM as much support between now and the election as we can.
Remember what happened in 2017? Everyone said the left would lose. It didn't.
+100
It's not great but it does follow a couple of bad weeks for Labour, much of this contrived by the MSM.
Still Lab/Gr/TPM 41.0 versus Nat/ACT 47.5 is recoverable providing Winston gets 4.9% not 5%.
The Nats are all over the place on funding their massively expensive RONS policy.
Luxon saying this week that he does not support sex education in schools may wake a few people up.
Well apparently China has some $ billions up for grabs….
@ b.g.
Top is making a showing…and should they get to 5% @ election one would think they would want to be part of a progressive coalition…rather than a reactionary/far right coalition..
(I have read their policies…and there is some good progressive stuff/ideas in there..)
It would be interesting to see some polling from the seat in christchurch the leader is standing in…
I also think the minor party wave is just beginning…and I expect green/tmp/top to all do better than these numbers…
Good point Phillip, though I think TOP tends to steal Green votes in a Teal manner.
Top can also be a home for those soft national voters..who are deeply uneasy about act..
Not all national voters are scorched earth/climate change denying far-right nutbars…
And wouldn't be keen about being lumped in with them..
Bearded Git, I'd appreciate a link to Luxon's view on sex education in schools. As a former teacher of that subject, and knowing the results at that time of the effectiveness of that upon teenage pregnancy rates in our province as reported by the local health unit, I'd of course be opposed to such a retrograde move, but I'd like to see exactly what he said, and upon what evidence.
I can't find anything from Luxon but Nicola Willis did get reported as follows.
https://www.thenews.co.nz/news/national-leaders-hold-public-meeting/
"Ms Willis replied she was a mum, too, and had four children aged from 7 to 13.
‘‘Here’s how I feel about sexual education. That’s the job for me and my husband to do with our kids, based on our values and our views of the world . . .I want my education system focused on teaching my children how to read, how to write and how to do maths.’’
In 2001 NZers were 80% in favour of sex education in schools. What has changed?https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/sex-education-in-class-fine-with-most-parents/
I suspect now the issue is about gender identity, as the questioner in the Willis news report seems to suggest, and about National's back to the basics three hour daily focus on the 3 Rs.
I suspect also that the religious right is being courted by National which has a strong caucus following to drive that.
I wouldn't pay much attention to dear old Roy, whether the poll is good or bad for whoever you support. The chances of NZF/TMP/TOP getting those numbers are negligible.
Tomorrow TV3 have a poll out, a better guide. Labour will probably be down but the minor parties' numbers will be more credible.
The thing is observer….that nat rad reported that roy morgan were right on the money@ last election…
Hard to scoff at that…eh…?
And a bit more credible than your reckons….d’yareckon..?
I certainly have problems voting labour at the mo, starting to think chippie ain't got it, as terrible as it sounds Winston is moving into veiw , as a counter to act and National, better 3 years of stasis imho.
Greens frontrunner at the mo.
But if it's a slam dunk for the right I dunno
When your minister of revenues quits and you are making policy on the fly it ain't good
@ waghorn..
I don't see it as a slam dunk for the right…
I see it as being far to close to call..
But it seems to come down to lab/grn/tmp/top ..
Vs. nact with nz first..(tho'peters has left himself some wriggle room..j.ardern being gone seems to have stilled his ire somewhat..and he dislikes national as much as he does labour…so he is too hard to call..)
You don't need RNZ or my "reckons". Google the actual polls.
Roy Morgan consistently overstates minor party support. Always have. They weren't very wrong in 2020, to be fair, but they weren't "on the money" either.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2020_New_Zealand_general_election
I heard that too Mr. Ure, though it was Bryce Edwards saying it so should probably be checked.
I find Roy Morgan particularly unconvincing on the minor minor parties. They don't seem to be in line with any of the other polls. And consistently over-inflate the results for both them, and the GP and ACT (in comparison to other polls)
In their last one they had TPM at 7% (dropping to 6% in this current one); but the general average of polls for TPM has been around 4%.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2023_New_Zealand_general_election
Either RM have a hot line to a better interview group – which more accurately reflects the voting public, than any of the rest of the pollsters; or they are consistent outliers.
I question why TPM and the GP would have dropped from their last poll (nothing in the media coverage would incline me to believe that their support has dropped – where would they be going?)
I can more easily believe that Labour ex-supporters would go to TOP and NZF (more as a brake on a potential N/ACT coalition, than through conviction) – especially with the bad news coverage that Labour have been suffering through recently. But, I'd be surprised if this trend is anything like as pronounced in other polls.
Its that exact effect that can make polls a self fufulling prohecy.
Bella-the problem with that Wiki poll of polls is that it includes the flaky Horizon poll.
I was surprised at NZ First's result, because Winston has said or done very little up til now and I must assume that it is the traditional hardcore Winstonophiles who are waking up after a near six-year slumber.
Will certainly add some interesting possibilities into the mix.
Yeah, seems more of a reaction to nothing from Labour. Oldies who are conservative enough to prefer Winston's hand-brake option. Still floating, could return…
Yes a cyber attack for a moment, and then realism set in and I thought it was probably a nuts and bolts site issue.
Thanks for fixing it……makes me appreciate having this forum.
Thank you for your good work.
My first thought was: what have I done now..?
http://Complaint about behaviour of National MP Tim Van De Molen received by Speaker https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/494923/complaint-about-behaviour-of-national-mp-tim-van-de-molen-received-by-speaker
Is Tim Van de Molen receiving Anger Management Training from Uffindell?
Vance and Obrien will be baying for blood.
I'll give a $5 donation to this site, if Vance and Obrien say more than the bare minimum to nothing at all.
Five bucks eh..?
Are you noted for your philanthropy..?
So, the incident occurred a month ago but has only now been referred to the Privileges Committee? Looking at the photo included in the link… I wouldn't want to meet him on a dark night. 😮
http://ACT MP Simon Court committed 'clear breach' of confidentiality – Privileges Committee https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/494520/act-mp-simon-court-committed-clear-breach-of-confidentiality-privileges-committee
and ACT will be calling for his resignation I'm sure. /sarc
Great re site. I did wonder, but knew you'd be into it.
It's such an important resource, this
Something happened when you pushed that button…..
On the Roy Morgan poll, apart from those that either quit or lost their seats the only difference in National personnel from 2020 is Christopher Luxon and his ratings are low. So if the polls are reflecting any form of reality then we are a truly mixed up country.
Labour has not introduced any radical policies to cause a major or even minor shift in direction since 2020. This polling on "wrong direction" is misleading and a complete nonsense. If such a high percentage believe that true then that alone just shows how fickle the electorate is.
God defend NZ has more meaning than ever……if these polls are to be believed.
Yes, "wrong direction" on it's own is pretty meaningless. Do people feel that the country/government needs to be moving further 'left' or further 'right'? ATM – both of these are lumped together – giving very little guidance.
"Wrong direction" on its own or not, has great significance for the incumbents…it certainly indicates the level of support for existing policy direction.
But doesn't tell them whether they need to be more centrist, or more extreme.
Dosnt matter…tells them they are not wanted …and alternatives will be sought, or the effort will not be made.
Well, if you're the party concerned, it matters quite a bit. It's very hard to move with the popular wind, if you can't tell which direction it's going in!
Tis too late to appeal to the 'popular winds' for the incumbents….even if they knew which way they were blowing
Yes. If I was asked about direction I don't know what I would say as I don't know what it means. Its like Mood of the Boardroom. Huh?
I'm not sure the leader approval ratings have much bearing on election outcomes. 1999 is a classic example. Helen Clark’s approval ratings as opposition leader were in single digits from memory and she went on to win the next three elections. Jim Bolger wasn’t loved by many either but he still managed to win three elections as well. Labour in 2023 have a feel of 1989/90. They have lost a popular leader and the replacement is struggling to fill the PM shoes….
You're mixing up 1999 and 1996. It's a common mistake, people often say "Oh, Clark's ratings were rock bottom" (which is correct, they were … in 1996). But the essential point is that she was kept on as leader for the following election after defeat, which no Nat/Lab leader has done since. Caucus loyalty to Clark was very strong, and it's unlikely Luxon or Hipkins would have anything like as much.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1999_New_Zealand_general_election
I agree. I think that (setting Hipkins aside) NZ has had 2 very personally popular PMs in a row (Key and Ardern) – and we've forgotten what it's like to have an 'ordinary' PM – one who doesn't have a significant degree of personal popularity – where voters are choosing a party (and, God help us, even a suite of policies) rather than a person.
Poor Bill …
A lot of the reason people, especially young people, hate labour is because they haven't been radical on housing, or poverty or the environment or healthcare.
Labour ran as low key populists in 2017 and in 2020, were given a mandate to everything they promised my generation in 2017 on housing and inequality.
They didn't because they thought if they were as centrist as possible they could hold onto older voters.
The things they didn't do infuriated my generation.
The things they did do infuriated older voters.
By trying to be everything to everyone, they've become nothing to anyone.
Good comment.
A younger gen way of putting it: there's no there there…
Disastrous poll for the left today. I hope the tide turns and we can get back on track and win in October, but it isn't looking great, especially with a very meek and mild Hipkins.
Ruling out wealth and a CGT although unpopular, is imo a big error. People on the left from what I see want transformational change not tinkering around the edges. But I can understand why he did it.
I'm going to look at Peters if Labour or the Greens don't look like they can form a government. At least Peters will ruin the majority of NACTs plans and we can have at least one term of no progress for the right.
If you are going to vote for Peters you may as well vote for the Nats or ACT. He will have little influence in a coalition and they may not need him.
Surely the Greens are a better bet?
The Greens can't spoil NACTs party, Winston can. And given Winston's history, I think he will.
There is a TV3 poll tomorrow night that may give a clearer picture.
Just bringing stamp duty back to help further cool the housing market would be good.
Change buying houses under kiwibuild to only buying the house and the state retaining the land would help many more low income people into housing. The Singapore model of this means less debt to banks and more into the productive economy.
“This book will show how Singapore has used its scarce land resources to balance between maximising rent revenue and using its landed property for public good, to provide public housing for the majority of its population and public industrial space for the transnational companies locating in Singapore. The state land in Singapore is treated as a use value (public housing and industrial space), as an exchange value (leased for private developers) and as a source of public revenue (land leases and property tax). This triple way of using public land has caused Singapore’s economy to grow and, paradoxically, Singapore’s development companies to prosper.”
https://www.landandliberty.net/urban-land-rent-singapore-as-a-property-state/
Yeah….we could start with the golf courses…