I thought it worth carrying on with a discussion I was having with Red Logix last night.
That is around the potential impact of AI on our lives in the future. I was looking at the creative side of things. But, I think this has the potential to impact a number of areas, and should be of concern for us when we think about the futures of our children and grand-children with the way things are going.
I was first a bit shocked when my son asked ChatGPT to write a poem about me. The inputs were to write a dark 100 word poem about me, and that I was autistic, illiterate, and colour-blind. The illiterate and colourblind, definitely not. The autistic, maybe lol??
So it came up with one poem which I thought was quite good. So, I was interested to see what would happen if the same variables were inputted again. Would it just repeat the same poem, or come up with something different? Well, I think it came up with something better, and here it is:
Autistic, illiterate, and blind
In darkness, he stumbled and fumbled
His love for me, hard to find.
Colorless memories of my childhood
No bedtime stories, no hugs or kisses
Silent dinners, no laughter or smiles
My heart, heavy with his misses
He couldn't teach me to read or write
Or tell me the colors of the rainbow
But he tried to show me love in his way
Through silence, his love did glow
Now as I sit in the dark, alone
I wonder if he ever knew
How much I loved him in return
And how much I missed him too
Someone I showed this to said they were feeling sorry for ChatGPT lol.
The thing is, this is pretty good, and things will only get better from here.
He shows how people are now creating songs with replicas of the voices of popular singers, and how some people prefer the replicas to the original. He thinks it won't be long before record labels cut out the singer altogether, and create their own voices. In fact, if you spend as little as $100, there are some pretty good apps out there now to do this. For instance, have a listen to "Keela".
The point is, it won't be that long before AI writes the songs, creates the music, and sings the songs, and human creativity has basically been eliminated from the process.
On One News the other night, they had an item about Hollywood creators going on strike. One of their concerns was the possibility that AI could take their jobs. In the news item, a AI created film was shown. It was a bit rough around the edges, but simulated real people in the film. It was quite obvious that it is only a matter of time before it will be impossible to tell whether a film has real people or not.
So, I think the Hollywood creatives are justified in being very afraid.
One of my concerns with this is, are we about to effectively lose our souls to AI? The poem written about me seemed to replicate human emotions. But, the bot producing these presumably experiences nothing of the emotions it is emulating.
Another concern is that AI is not only going to impact creative industries, but many areas of our lives. So, what does that mean for future career opportunities for our children in 20 years time or whatever?
I understand that we have always progressed and opportunities have arisen from that progress. But, I think this is more fundamental in that anything we can do, AI will be able to do it better and faster.
It is the beginning of May and so far this year we have had the resignation of Jacinda Ardern, Stuart Nash, Mika Whaitiri and now Elizabeth Kerekere (off the top of my head)…all from the governing parties.
You may not consider that indicative of anything but from where im sitting its not exactly indicating stability and control.
good/better to clean house before the election campaign starts.
However, Ardern left because she was burnt out, and she picked her timing well. Nash left because he was doing his job badly. We don't really know why Whaitiri left or why now, Kerekere's position was obviously untenably all round. Those things are all different.
Ardern's timing was obviously about stability for Labour. If Kerekere was pushed, this also strikes me as being about stability (she was a loose unit for the election). Nash is retiring (he's not the only one). That leaves Whaitiri.
We are all well rid of her. I will never forget her sneering distain for submitters to the Parliamentary process who happened to not share her ideological viewpoint.
One of the better opinions about decling global population I've read – obviously because it fits my world view. However, there's a lot for those who still believe in the economic growth paradigm to think about – it doesn't demonise 'over-populated poor countries' or their people, which some of the doomsday narratives and blame-gamers do.
As the population and sustainability director at the Center for Biological Diversity, I’ve seen the devastating effects of our ever-expanding footprint on global ecosystems. But if you listen to economists (and Elon Musk), you might believe falling birthrates mean the sky is falling as fewer babies means fewer workers and consumers driving economic growth.
But there’s more to the story than dollars. Where our current model of endless growth and short-term profits sacrifices vulnerable people and the planet’s future, population decline could help create a future with more opportunity and a healthy, biologically rich world. We’re at a crossroads—and we decide what happens next.
You would probably enjoy Peter Zeihan. His thesis has pretty much been that the world won't continue on as it has been for various reasons, including demographic.
I think the areas that will reduce will be manufacturing to do with consumer goods.
However, other areas may increase. For instance, a lot of businesses will seek to automate to reduce their labour costs due to decreased demand. And, also, there is the coming influx of green technology.
So, there will be declines in some areas, but increases in others.
A fair primer – but he's still talking within the economic growth model, not beyond it – does he have an alternative paradigm – and does he have it in writing, rather than video format?
Zeihan has published four books. The most recent The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization is what you might be looking for.
Most people find his approach well worth engaging with, even if you do not agree with all of his underlying assumptions and conclusions. If nothing else he is highly educated and exceptionally experienced in this field – and employs a decent team of researchers.
He completed his post-grad study at Otago – and has a very soft spot for NZ. Comes back here for tramping holidays whenever he can.
You are correct – in that he is talking to the economic growth model in that clip, but he frequently acknowledges that humans have never faced this demographic inversion ever before – and we absolutely no idea of what economic model might work, or how it will pan out.
So imagine a world where advanced AI in lower-population economies and societies look after more of the drudgery than now.
No more driving or hauling. Fewer surgeons and nurses. Fewer teachers. Fewer lawyers and accountants. Fewer low-paid laborious jobs. Fewer farm jobs of any kind. Deep mechanisation of life.
Less and less trust in corporatised or politicised media, so people privilege actual dialogue. Far less human error. Less waste and manufacturing mistakes.
More interesting and targeted entertainment. More time to be creative and innovative in our own way. More ability to be good humans.
Most people are completely under-estimating the implications of below replacement levels of fertility. Right now South Korea – which is merely leading the pack – is at 0.8, and on track to be 0.7 in just a few more years.
This means that for every 100 South Koreans who are alive today – there will be only 4 South Koreans in their great-grandchildren's generation. Roughly a 95% population collapse. Pretty much all developed nations are on the same path, and so far there does not seem to be any organic floor to how low this will go.
AI might change the supply side of the problem, but will do little on the demand side because it will not consume in the way humans do.
Japan had a 'first mover' advantage in this game, they started depopulating two decades before anyone else. The strategy they came up with was to shift a lot of their manufacturing capacity out of Japan – where they knew there was going to be a shortage of cost-effective labour – to the locations where their markets are. And then retain the design and planning in Japan which has high margins and kept their economy afloat.
For instance the largest Toyota factories in the world are in the USA.
This worked for Japan because they really had no competitors in this space for several decades. But it can only work if you have a partner nation who still has the labour resource and the market for your product. When everyone is in the same ageing boat – it fast becomes a zero sum game.
For a wee place like New Zealand, what we've seen with COVID is a little precursor to low fertility:
Really high wage growth for necessary workers, especially in agriculture. Record low unemployment even for Maori.
Really fast shift in the kinds of workers needed, hence fast changes in immigration categories
Flatlining need for new schools other than in limited areas, and huge subsidies on childcare to keep people working
Massive premium on medical personnel, rest home workers, and rest home staff. Again altering immigration categories.
Massive pressure on housing stock to be ability-friendly, flat, secure, walk-in, semi-managed.
Explosion of home-based industries, startups, and workers who also have much higher choice to regulate their hours
Rapid digitisation of government, and accelerated withdrawal of shops from town centres including banks, post offices, supermarket and other checkouts. Again, far fewer shit jobs.
Many people have the intuition that when a population crashes, the amount of resources left to go around will increase on a per-person basis and this boost in individual prosperity will create a new homeostasis at which populations reach a sustainable, more-or-less constant level, or even start to grow. This intuition is wrong on three fronts.
In brief – there is no reason to think there is a floor on this fertility collapse. Secondly we have no credible or economic model that might be applicable. And thirdly – the linked article tries to express this – we greatly overestimate the relative scarcity of true creativity and talent. Those individuals who make the breakthroughs which keep innovation moving are rare. Really rare. Even with a population of 8b we still do not have enough of them.
In other words it is not at all clear that a falling population will have the capacity to maintain the resources to sustain even current levels of per capita human development, much less improve them.
And it does strike as somewhat pathological to hate your fellow human beings so much that anyone would welcome the extinction of 90% or more of us. In a moral sense it kinda makes your average mass murderer look like a choir boy.
So just to go through that articles' view of the downsides:
1. Labour Mobility
"Those who propose to “solve demographic collapse with immigration” are implicitly endorsing the creation of a toxic situation where the developed world’s economy is reliant on Africa staying poor."
That's not the way it's worked for Pacific Island countries for four decades. So much of their own home island economy is remittances. I loved hearing rich wineries beg for workers, and beg so hard they built accommodation for them, and have to increase wages fast. We used to have large scale employers like that and scarcity is doing what unions used to.
2. Breeding and Innovation.
"The sociological profile most amenable to what we think of as modern cosmopolitan society—one that is open-minded, pluralistic, technophilic, and egalitarian—is being aggressively deleted from the world’s population."
This weirdly eugenic argument might work in excessively xenophobic Japan. Perhaps we are all a great simmentals play. But the ex-colonies like Australia, Canada, US, NZ, and India know that their dynamism and success relies on the inter-border flow of people, ideas and capital.
3. The Family As Saviour
"Those who will throw their chips in with this massive cultural and demographic experiment by consciously creating a family, and then raising it in an intergenerationally durable culture, will shape the future of our species."
Women in the west who can since the 1970s abort children at will and otherwise control reproduction might humbly suggest that their human agency and wealth production and ability to innovate does not require conscious family production. Those who are required to generate families such as in most stern Muslim countries tend not to innovate and tend to be held back by this concept of family – and their population explosions strips their lands bare and turns their cities to squalor.
The authors of that article do acknowledge that this element of their argument looks uncomfortably close to the old eugenics of the 20th century. And in a world which now believes there is no such thing as biology, even the suggestion that talent, pro-socialability and productivity might have a genetic component that we are aggressively deleting from our population – is going to be met with vociferous denial.
Women in the west who can since the 1970s abort children at will and otherwise control reproduction might humbly suggest that their human agency and wealth production and ability to innovate does not require conscious family production.
And then in later life many deeply regret this lie they were told, mourning the children they left too late to have.
Those who are required to generate families such as in most stern Muslim countries tend not to innovate and tend to be held back by this concept of family – and their population explosions strips their lands bare and turns their cities to squalor.
Population collapse happening in Iran as well. Sitting at 1.71 in 2020 and dropping.
In October 2021, Iran's Population Studies Center warned that if demographic issues such as the aging population and drastic fall in birth rates continued to be neglected, Iran would go down an irreversible path of aging within the next eight years.
The further the fertility rate drops below 2.1 the faster the process. It's a bit like going bankrupt – slowly at first, then fast.
I first started mentioning fertility collapse a few years back, so its a bit gratifying to see it getting acknowledged and discussed. And it is such a novel and disturbing prospect – way worse in many aspects than COVID – that I don't think anyone even begins to properly understand the implications.
We have the richest nations in the world building bridges that fall down yet 2000 years ago with a world population of around 100mn, aqueducts were built that are still in use today. I'm pretty sure amongst our 8bn people there's enough smarts and ability to use AI and automation to eliminate manual labour, reduce engineering errors and enable a better quality of life for everyone
As an actual automation engineer I'm very much inclined to that view myself. If AI turns out to be an assistant and amplifier of human capacity – as seems a reasonable prospect – then yes I agree the potential is unlimited.
But just as money makes a person more of who they already are for both good and bad – I would ask that if we are going to amplify people with AI, then what exactly is it that we doing here?
I'm seeing problems if we don't address the social and cultural upheaval, for sure and humans are a bit shite at this – regressing into nationalism and all the other isms, but it can be avoided.
Compare for example Merkel's pragmatic response to the very well-educated, young, first wave of Syrian refugees to Orban's protectionism in Hungary. And, as Zeihan (above) mentions – Canada's immigration policy. Again though, they're working within economic growth. The problem of personal health services is problematic as well – and yes, Japan is already experimenting with technological solutions.
In terms of earth sustaining life, less consumption in our profligate growth economy (as you say, more time for personal creativity etc. and inherent value from that) is essential.
One reason why ACT, and National by extension, should never be allowed to get their hands on the Government tills and occupy the Treasury benches.
Ditching the dog-whistle and opting for the full-blown Alphorn, Seymour announces war on beneficiaries without even a shred of evidence to show that his underhand insinuations are accurate and correct.
David Seymour is effectively saying that all people in the areas that are most affected by recent weather events who have not yet filled out their Census form and who receive Government benefits & assistance will be cut off and left to dry. I cannot understand why anybody would vote for this fellow.
Those people already face a potential fine of up to $2,000. How many times does David Seymour and his merry band of privileged want to kick down those who are already down? It feels like a vindictive streak running their veins.
Toilet ‘humour’ seems to find fertile soil with certain RW politicians, e.g., Wayne Brown and his ‘joke’ about peeing on a NZH journalist. Of course, with a bit of (Google) effort one could easily dig up more examples.
Bugger, I’m slipping into the stereotyping hole, again
Just awful. Rotary members are generally tory through and through, have encountered a number of them over the years. Their party trick is ingratiating community service aka Philanthropy mini.
Those Restore Passenger Rail protesters surely need a medal for best timed protest:
Comprehensive passenger rail disasters this week in Auckland and Wellington, and a spectacular set of failures and tough reviews about Kiwirail's passenger ferries, plus being roasted by the Minister of Transport multiple times.
Stick at it protesters; you're annoying but you are right and your timing is perfect.
The three main operators have sold their towers off in a short space of time. And one has said they are moving to satellite coverage through Starlink. Details of how this will work haven't been revealed yet, but could be expensive, and limited bandwidth. Major advance for the large parts of the country where coverage is sketchy.
The towers are looking a bit like a stranded assett and may be seeing less use than currently. Taking them into two operators really won't change much, but will make the cell network much easier to regulate and maybe nationalise as essential infrastructure.
Point taken Graeme. So what I understand your saying is that you maintain that this sale is more successful than the greatest NZ salesman of all time who sold the "Yellow Pages" just before Google arrived.
There's also that it doesn't make much sense any more to have three competing networks of towers, and the 'hilltop wars' between the players are becoming irrelevant with satellite and 4 & 5G. There's a lot of shared sites now.
Around here (Queenstown) most of the sites go back to 2G when they were hammer and tongs claiming hilltops and fighting each other's consents. So you need three phones / sims to get good coverage, each has an area of near exclusivity. Having independent tower providers who compete on coverage and volume might improve things. Ideal would be a single state owned network
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The Treasury released its budget economic forecasts. What do they say about the economy over the next four months?Brian Easton writes – Let me begin me with an irritation. One post-budget headline was ‘Treasury optimistic over recession risk in Budget 2023‘. Treasury being optimistic is almost an ...
As a politician swallowing a rat under a very public spotlight, Chris Bishop gave a spirited and relatively smooth account of himself yesterday. File Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: Chris Bishop has detailed National’s new housing policy for Election 2023 that confirms a National Government would not force councils ...
After signalling it a week ago, yesterday National launched their new housing policy which abandons their support for the Medium Density Residential Standards (MDRS) that they had worked with the government to deliver back in 2021 and shifts the focus to more sprawl. Overall there are three key areas National ...
The audacity of National’s “u-turn” over housing intensification is an extraordinary slap in the face for Chris Bishop and Nicola Willis. If it does nothing else, it raises questions about their political judgement, not for the first time.. Some in the Caucus have still not forgiven them for their ...
As the general election approaches, the Association of Former Members of the Parliament of New Zealand has organised an essay competition to to foster democracy. Secondary school students are being challenged to identify the important elements of a successful democracy, explain their value and consider whether they can be improved ...
Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: For paying subscribers, here's my pick of the week’s top six news developments, quotes and charts of the week with my personal reflections, plus my suggestions for Sunday reading and listening. There’s also one fun thing. In summary this week, my six takeaways were:Christopher ...
With Open Arms: Is it at all reasonable to suppose that a colonial society in which whites traditionally occupied all the upper rungs of the ethnic hierarchy, and where the colonised were relegated to the bottom of the socio-economic ladder, will respond positively to a concerted indigenous push from below, ...
Hi,Just a quick online-only update that Webworm won “Best Team Investigation” last night at the Voyagers.This means a lot, especially considering we were up against giant newsrooms like Stuff and TVNZ:WINNER: David Farrier and Hayden Donnell | Webworm – The Downward Spiral of Arise ChurchJUDGES: Alan Sunderland and Ali Ikram“This ...
May 28, 2025.Ladies and gentlemen. It’s a beautiful clear morning here in Auckland City. We’re heading for a maximum temperature of 14 degrees, and the local time is now 10:30am. Please remain seated if you’d like to, or get up and walk around the plane if you prefer. New regulations ...
Focussed immigration has always been essential to our future, but New Zealanders need to be aware of the immediate dire situation our government is putting us in with a predicted record of one hundred thousand new immigrants moving to New Zealand in this year alone. That means we will have ...
Today, President of Te Pāti Māori, John Tamihere has confirmed that Heather Te-Au Skipworth will stand for Te Pāti Māori in the Tukituki electorate this election. ...
During New Zealand First coalition negotiations our policy was to train and resource 1800 new frontline police. We secured this coalition policy win to ensure our streets had a police force that could tackle crime - after years of neglect. Remember those previous nine years of neglect saw a ‘tag ...
Katie Kenny from Stuff published an article today with a lazy attempt at so-called ‘fact checking’ my recent comments on the World Health Organisation’s concerning new regulations being developed. What is most surprising is that throughout this entire ‘fact checking’ process, Kenny never once rang me asking for my side ...
The National Party has released another confused and rushed policy that will only further worsen the inequality that is driven by unaffordable housing. ...
Welcome to sunny and calm Wellington, which I know those of you who are visiting would of course expect to be the case. It’s been a busy week since we put forward the 2023 Budget. Labour MPs have been out across the motu giving the good oil on the Budget. ...
Kia orana, Talofa lava, Mālo e lelei, Taloha ni, Fakaalofa lahi atu, Noa’ia e mauri, Ni sa bula vinaka, Kia ora, Tena Koutou Katoa. Labour Party President Jill Day, Prime Minister Hipkins, Party faithful, delegates and comrades, whānau and friends, it’s a privilege to be here today. I begin my ...
One of my kaumātua up North stood before the Waitangi Tribunal and said: ‘He aha kē ahau, te tangata kore hara i mua i te Atua, e tu nei kia whakawaatia e koe, te tangata tāhae, te tangata hara, te tangata kore tikanga?Ko koe kē te tika, kia tū ...
New Zealanders will be highly concerned that the World Health Organisation proposes to effectively take control of independent decision making away from sovereign countries and place control with the Director General. W.H.O International Health Regulations on future outbreaks of disease aim to give the Director General extraordinary and wide-sweeping powers. ...
The Green Party is calling on the Government to take responsibility for reducing inflation by taxing wealth instead of leaving RBNZ to continue hiking the Official Cash Rate. ...
The Green Party has released its list of candidates for the 2023 election. With a mix of familiar faces, fresh new talent, and strong tangata whenua voices, this exceptional group of candidates are ready to set the direction of the next Government. ...
Thank you for your invitation to be here, after yesterday's budget, and for the opportunity to talk with you. In the economic and social turmoil following the arrival of COVID 19 in New Zealand many concerns emerged. How would we keep our economy going and maintain our exports which are ...
At the heart of Budget 2023 is a cost of living package, designed to ease the pressure on New Zealanders in the face of global inflation and the challenges of rebuilding from extreme weather events. It provides practical cost of living relief across some of the core expenses facing Kiwis ...
A long standing Green Party policy has been extended yet again in this year’s Budget. This will deliver warmer homes for thousands of people, lower power bills, and cut climate pollution. ...
The Green Party is fully on board with free bus and train travel for under 12s and half price travel for under 25s - next stop, free travel for all under 18s, students, and apprentices. ...
Earlier this week, the Prime Minister announced a billion dollar flood and cyclone recovery package as part of Budget 2023. This is about doing the basics - repairing and rebuilding what has been damaged and making smart investments, including $100 million of protection funding to ensure future events don’t cause ...
New Zealand’s most recent defence assessment identified climate change and geostrategic competition as the two greatest security challenges to our place in the South Pacific. To the first issue, partners engaging and re-engaging with Pacific Island Countries are finding that climate change is a security and existential threat in our ...
The government is continuing to support rangatahi in providing more funding into Maori Trades training and new He Poutama Rangatahi programmes across Aotearoa. “We’re backing 30 new by Māori for Māori Kaupapa employment and training programmes, which will help iwi into sustainable employment or progress within their chosen careers” says ...
Murihiku Marae was officially reopened today, setting a gold standard in sustainable building practices as well as social outcomes for the people of Waihōpai Invercargill, Regional Development Minister Kiri Allan says. “The marae has been a central hub for this community since the 1980’s. With the support of $9.65 million ...
The first major public housing development in Whangārei for decades has reached completion, with 37 new homes opened in the suburb of Maunu today. The project on Tapatahi Crescent and Puriri Park Road, consists of 15 one-bedroom, 4 two-bedroom, 7 three-bedroom, 8 four-bedroom and 3 five-bedroom homes, as well as ...
Trade and Export Growth Minister Damen O’Connor will depart tomorrow for London to represent New Zealand at the Commonwealth Trade Ministers’ Meeting and then to Paris to vice-chair the OECD Ministerial Council Meeting. “My travel to the United Kingdom is well-timed, with the United Kingdom Free Trade Agreement (UK FTA) ...
The Fuel Industry (Improving Fuel Resilience) Amendment Bill would: boost New Zealand’s fuel supply resilience and economic security enable the minimum stockholding obligation regulations to be adapted as the energy and transport environment evolves. “Last November, I announced a six-point plan to improve the resiliency of our fuel supply from ...
The Government is making sure those on low incomes will no longer have to wait five weeks to get the minimum weekly rate of ACC, and improving the data collected to make the system fairer, Minister for ACC Peeni Henare said today. The Accident Compensation (Access Reporting and Other Matters) ...
A compulsory code of conduct will ensure school board members are crystal clear on their responsibilities and expected standard of behaviour, Minister of Education Jan Tinetti said. It’s the first time a compulsory code of conduct has been published for state and state-integrated school boards and comes into effect on ...
Tena koutou katoa and thank you, Mayor Nadine Taylor, for your welcome to Marlborough. Thanks also Doug Saunders-Loder and all of you for inviting me to your annual conference. As you might know, I’m quite new to this job – and I’m particularly pleased that the first organisation I’m giving a ...
The Government will enter into a funding arrangement with councils in cyclone and flood affected regions to support them to offer a voluntary buyout for owners of Category 3 designated residential properties. It will also co-fund work needed to protect Category 2 designated properties. “From the beginning of this process ...
The Government has announced changes to strengthen requirements in venues with pokie (gambling) machines will come into effect from 15 June. “Pokies are one of the most harmful forms of gambling. They can have a detrimental impact on individuals, their friends, whānau and communities,” Internal Affairs Minister Barbara Edmonds said. ...
The total Police workforce is now the largest it has ever been. Police constabulary stands at 10,700 officers – an increase of 21% since 2017 Māori officers have increased 40%, Pasifika 83%, Asian 157%, Women 61% Every district has got more Police under this Government The Government has delivered on ...
Minister of Foreign Affairs, Hon Nanaia Mahuta met with Korea President Yoon, as well as Pacific Islands Forum Secretary General Henry Puna, during her recent visit to Korea. “It was an honour to represent Aotearoa New Zealand at the first Korea – Pacific Leaders’ Summit. We discussed Pacific ambitions under the ...
The Government’s Research and Development Tax Incentive has supported more than $2 billion of New Zealand business innovation – an increase of around $1 billion in less than nine months. "Research and innovation are essential in helping us meet the biggest challenges and seize opportunities facing New Zealand. It’s fantastic ...
The next ‘giant leap’ in New Zealand’s space journey has been taken today with the launch of the National Space Policy, Economic Development Minister Barbara Edmonds announced. “Our space sector is growing rapidly. Each year New Zealand is becoming a more and more attractive place for launches, manufacturing space-related technology ...
A new Year 7-13 designated character wharekura will be built in Pāpāmoa, Associate Minister of Education Kelvin Davis has announced. The wharekura will focus on science, mathematics and creative technologies while connecting ākonga to the whakapapa of the area. The decision follows an application by the Ngā Pōtiki ā Tamapahore ...
Protecting the environment by establishing a stronger, more consistent system for freedom camping Supporting councils to better manage freedom camping in their region and reduce the financial and social impacts on communities Ensuring that self-contained vehicle owners have time to prepare for the new system The Self-Contained Motor Vehicle ...
A new law passed last night could see up to 25 percent of Family Court judges’ workload freed up in order to reduce delays, Minister of Justice Kiri Allan said. The Family Court (Family Court Associates) Legislation Bill will establish a new role known as the Family Court Associate. The ...
New Zealand businesses will begin reaping the rewards of our gold-standard free trade agreement with the United Kingdom (UK FTA) from today. “The New Zealand UK FTA enters into force from today, and is one of the seven new or upgraded Free Trade Agreements negotiated by Labour to date,” Prime ...
The Government will reform outdated surrogacy laws to improve the experiences of children, surrogates, and the growing number of families formed through surrogacy, by adopting Labour MP Tāmati Coffey’s Member’s Bill as a Government Bill, Minister Kiri Allan has announced. “Surrogacy has become an established method of forming a family ...
Defence Minister Andrew Little departs for Singapore tomorrow to attend the 20th annual Shangri-La Dialogue for Defence Ministers from the Indo-Pacific region. “Shangri-La brings together many countries to speak frankly and express views about defence issues that could affect us all,” Andrew Little said. “New Zealand is a long-standing participant ...
Research, Science and Innovation Minister Dr Ayesha Verrall and the Chinese Minister of Science and Technology Wang Zhigang met in Wellington today and affirmed the two countries’ long-standing science relationship. Minister Wang was in New Zealand for the 6th New Zealand-China Joint Commission Meeting on Science and Technology Cooperation. Following ...
5 percent uplift clearer and simpler to navigate Domestic productions can access more funding sources 20 percent rebate confirmed for post-production, digital and visual effects Qualifying expenditure for post-production, digital and visual effects rebate dropped to $250,000 to encourage more smaller productions The Government is making it easier for the ...
Deputy Prime Minister and Associate Minister of Foreign Affairs (Pacific Region) Carmel Sepuloni will represent New Zealand at Samoa’s 61st Anniversary of Independence commemorations in Apia. “Aotearoa New Zealand is pleased to share in this significant occasion, alongside other invited Pacific leaders, and congratulates Samoa on the milestone of 61 ...
The Government is continuing to support retailers with additional funding for the highly popular Fog Cannon Subsidy Scheme, Police and Small Business Minister Ginny Andersen announced today. “The Government is committed to improving retailers’ safety,” Ginny Andersen said. “I’ve seen first-hand the difference fog cannons are making. Not only do ...
The Government has received the first independent review of the Intelligence and Security Act 2017, Prime Minister Chris Hipkins says. The review, considered by the Parliamentary Intelligence and Security Committee, was presented to the House of Representatives today. “Ensuring the safety and security of New Zealanders is of the utmost ...
Prime Minister Chris Hipkins has expressed condolences on behalf of New Zealand to the Kingdom of Tonga following the death of Her Royal Highness Princess Mele Siu’ilikutapu Kalaniuvalu Fotofili. “New Zealand sends it’s heartfelt condolences to the people of Tonga, and to His Majesty King Tupou VI at this time ...
Prime Minister Chris Hipkins has expressed condolences on behalf of New Zealand to the Kingdom of Tonga following the death of Her Royal Highness Princess Mele Siu’ilikutapu Kalaniuvalu Fotofili. “New Zealand sends it’s heartfelt condolences to the people of Tonga, and to His Majesty King Tupou VI at this time ...
Defence Minister Andrew Little and Foreign Affairs Minister Nanaia Mahuta have today announced the extension of the New Zealand Defence Force (NZDF) deployment to Solomon Islands, as part of the regionally-led Solomon Islands International Assistance Force (SIAF). “Aotearoa New Zealand has a long history of working alongside the Royal Solomon ...
Foreign Affairs Minister Nanaia Mahuta will travel to the Republic of Korea today to attend the Korea–Pacific Leaders’ Summit in Seoul and Busan. “Korea is an important partner for Aotearoa New Zealand and the Pacific region. I am eager for the opportunity to meet and discuss issues that matter to our ...
Trade and Export Growth Minister Damien O’Connor joined ministerial representatives at a meeting in Detroit, USA today to announce substantial conclusion of negotiations of a new regional supply chains agreement among 14 Indo-Pacific countries. The Supply Chains agreement is one of four pillars being negotiated within the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework ...
Our most spoken Pacific language is taking centre stage this week with Vaiaso o le Gagana Samoa – Samoa Language Week kicking off around the country. “Understanding and using the Samoan language across our nation is vital to its survival,” Barbara Edmonds said. “The Samoan population in New Zealand are ...
Over 90 per cent of New Zealanders are expected to receive this year’s nationwide test of the Emergency Mobile Alert system tonight between 6-7pm. “Emergency Mobile Alert is a tool that can alert people when their life, health, or property, is in danger,” Kieran McAnulty said. “The annual nationwide test ...
ENGLISH: Whakatōhea and the Crown sign Deed of Settlement A Deed of Settlement has been signed between Whakatōhea and the Crown, 183 years to the day since Whakatōhea rangatira signed the Treaty of Waitangi, Minister for Treaty of Waitangi Negotiations Andrew Little has announced. Whakatōhea is an iwi based in ...
Elizabeth Longworth has been appointed as the Chair of the New Zealand National Commission for UNESCO, Associate Minister of Education Jo Luxton announced today. UNESCO is the United Nations agency responsible for promoting cooperative action among member states in the areas of education, science, culture, social science (including peace and ...
Tourism and hospitality employer accreditation scheme to recognise quality employers Better education and career opportunities in tourism Cultural competency to create more diverse and inclusive workplaces Innovation and technology acceleration to drive satisfying, skilled jobs Strengthening our tourism workers and supporting them into good career pathways, pay and working conditions ...
Tourism and hospitality employer accreditation scheme to recognise quality employers Better education and career opportunities in tourism Cultural competency to create more diverse and inclusive workplaces Innovation and technology acceleration to drive satisfying, skilled jobs Strengthening our tourism workers and supporting them into good career pathways, pay and working conditions ...
Greater access to primary care, including 193 more front line clinical staff More hauora services and increased mental health support Boost for maternity and early years programmes Funding for cancers, HIV and longer term conditions Greater access to primary care, improved maternity care and mental health support are ...
Greater access to primary care, including 193 more front line clinical staff More hauora services and increased mental health support Boost for maternity and early years programmes Funding for cancers, HIV and longer term conditions Greater access to primary care, improved maternity care and mental health support are ...
The Government continues progress on the survivor-led independent redress system for historic abuse in care, with the announcement of the design and advisory group members today. “The main recommendation of the Royal Commission of Inquiry’s Abuse in Care interim redress report was for a survivor-led independent redress system, and the ...
By Tess Brunton, RNZ News reporter New Zealand Prime Minister Chris Hipkins faced a grilling by University of Otago students during his trip to Ōtepoti yesterday. Students, staff and community members have been fighting against the university’s request for staff to consider redundancies in a bid to save $60 million. ...
RNZ Pacific Transparency International Papua New Guinea has welcomed the conviction of lawyer Paul Paraka as the police confirm they are widening the investigation into the fraud case. The NGO admits the depths of Paraka’s activities, revealed by the case, are very worrying. Paraka, who had operated his own eponymous ...
Government and the tech sector are considering principles for an AI strategy, but there seems little urgency from ministers and no sign of action before the election. ...
Government and the tech sector are considering principles for an AI strategy, but there seems little urgency from ministers and no sign of action before the election. ...
Susan Wardell’s first picture book is nominated in two categories at this year’s New Zealand Book Awards for Children & Young Adults. She tells Claire Mabey about the genesis of the book, and what she thinks of the state of children’s publishing in Aotearoa. Claire Mabey: What was the inspiration ...
In June 1997, a new reality TV juggernaut arrived on New Zealand screens. Tara Ward and Alex Casey look back on a quarter-century of Treasure Island mayhem. Twenty-six years ago this month, we watched 12 fresh-faced New Zealanders arrive on a Fijian beach with nothing but their hopes and dreams ...
Governments around the world are searching for how to fix housing affordability, but the solutions will have to be local and community based, writes Nicole Gurran of the University of SydneyOpinion: From Sydney to San Francisco, the housing affordability crisis is affecting communities across the world. Younger generations priced out of ...
A lack of female football stars in the media didn't stop Claudia Bunge on her journey to the top; now the Football Fern hopes a new campaign helps girls see what they can become The first time Claudia Bunge watched a women’s football game, it featured some of the Football Ferns she now ...
Councillors still weighing up their options before next week’s budget vote say there has been insufficient information, communication and time to assess the consequences of a full selldown of airport shares Auckland Mayor Wayne Brown is famous for his straight to the bone style of communication, but Thursday’s budget announcement ...
Love, Instagram, and a new bed, from a dazzling new short story collection Alice had wanted a heart-shaped bed since she was sixteen, which was when she had started wanting most of the things she wanted now. She had imagined she would meet some Lolita-loving, Sugar Daddy type who ...
Every day, pets are being removed from domestic violence situations around the country. Alex Casey talks to one of the workers on the front line. This story contains discussion of domestic violence and emotional abuse, please take care.Alice Hayward has never been busier. As a caseworker for Pet Refuge, ...
As the country contends with a cost-of-living permacrisis and an election year, is it too much to ask that our politicians don’t spend a week playing petty games?It would be fitting to reflect on this week in politics by simply dropping this gif and, as with Succession itself, calling ...
As part of a weekly showcase of future leaders and inspirational young New Zealanders from the Hyundai Pinnacle Programme, Jennifer Palmer wants to know how we can treat neurodegenerative diseases more effectively | Content Partnership When Jennifer Palmer was growing up, her nickname was Chatterbox. “I’d always be saying, ‘Why? ...
This is The Detail's Long Read – one in-depth story read by us every weekend. This week, we're diving into the back catalogues. It's The Preppers Next Door by Tom Doig, published in New Zealand Geographic magazine's November/December 2022 issue. You can read the full article, with accompanying photos by Cameron James McLaren, here. When Tom Doig ...
Asia Pacific Report An Australian author-poet and advocate for West Papuan independence has condemned a reported threat against the life of a New Zealand hostage pilot, Philip Mehrtens, held by Papuan liberation fighters and appealed to them to “keep Philip safe”. Jim Aubrey, a human rights activist who has campaigned ...
RNZ Pacific Members of Fijian communities in Auckland and Wellington are eager to meet Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka next week when he arrives on his first official state visit to Aotearoa New Zealand. Rabuka and wife Sulueti are expected to arrive in Auckland on Monday before meeting with the local ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has told a regional security forum that dialogue is a vital “guardrail” in dealing with China, and praised US President Joe Biden’s effort to establish “reliable and open” US-China channels of ...
Flood-ravaged West Aucklanders are rejoicing after the government announced it will offer buyout options to people whose land is too risky to rebuild on. ...
Wayne Brown has sent councillors copies of insulting emails from the public, including one that called them "dip shits", while the deputy mayor says the mayor is not making the budget process easier. ...
The National Party wildly underestimated how popular its leader would be when he visited New Plymouth on Friday and had to turn people away at the door. Political editor Jo Moir found a patch of wall to lean against as Christopher Luxon got all sorts of questions and advice, not ...
By Repeka Nasiko in Lautoka The University of the South Pacific will be receiving additional funding from the Fiji government in the 2023-2024 national budget, says Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Finance Professor Biman Prasad. Speaking at a public consultation in Lautoka this week, he said the additional funding ...
By Gorethy Kenneth in Port Moresby The National Court has ordered the Papua New Guinea government to disclose the full details of the gold refinery deal it entered into with a Singapore-based company, National Gold Corporation. The court ordered Prime Minister James Marape (first defendant), Planning Minister Renbo Paita (second ...
Asia Pacific Report A new edition of the Okinawan Journal of Island Studies features social justice island activism, including a case study of Aotearoa New Zealand’s Pacific Media Centre, in what the editors say brings a sense of “urgency” in the field of diversity, equity, and inclusion in scholarship. In ...
By Lydia Lewis, RNZ Pacific journalist Preliminary findings of a yet-to-be released Transparency International survey has found sextortion — demanding sexual favours in return for public services — is a major issue in parts of the Pacific. Papua New Guinea, the Federated States of Micronesia and Solomon Islands have higher ...
RNZ News New Zealand’s Media Freedom Council has called Auckland Mayor Wayne Brown’s exclusion of some media outlets from his budget speech today “unacceptable”. In an appearance at Auckland Transport’s Viaduct headquarters, Brown took time out of pitching his plan to sell the city’s holdings in Auckland Airport to complain ...
There are parallels between Indonesia’s Aceh where anAustralian surfer faced a flogging, and West Papua where a New Zealand pilot may be facing death. Both provinces have fought brutalguerrilla wars for independence. One has been settled through foreign peacekeepers. The other still rages as outsiders fear intervention.By Duncan ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tina Hinton, Associate Professor of Pharmacology, University of Sydney Shutterstock The latest health trend on TikTok has been dubbed “nature’s own Ozempic”. It’s the herbal preparation berberine. Influencers have been enthusiastically claiming its success in helping them lose weight, ...
The Government has announced new regulations to ensure venues and gambling societies uphold their responsibilities to prevent problem gambling and gambling harm. These regulations will apply to pubs, clubs and TAB NZ venues and will come into effect ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Dean Aszkielowicz, Lecturer, Murdoch University On Thursday, Justice Anthony Besanko of the Federal Court dismissed defamation proceedings brought by former Special Air Service soldier Ben Roberts-Smith against several Australian news outlets. The court found that reporting by Nick McKenzie, Chris Masters ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Toby Walsh, Professor of AI, Research Group Leader, UNSW Sydney Shutterstock The world missed the boat with social media. It fuelled misinformation, fake news, and polarisation. We saw the harms too late, once they had already started to have a ...
The parliamentary petition calling for a national food strategy launched on the 1st of June and will remain open for signatures for eight weeks. The call is led by Eat New Zealand, Freedom Farms and Veterinarians for Animal Welfare Aotearoa (VAWA). ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Gregory Moore, Senior Research Associate, School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences, The University of Melbourne Shutterstock While plants can’t walk, they can certainly travel. Some species have travelled vast distances over millennia, moving by different and varied modes. Some ...
Duncan Greive is joined by The Spinoff staff writer Shanti Mathias and The Bulletin editor Anna Rawhiti-Connell to discuss the Safer Online Services and Media Platforms document, and its implications for the future of digital media. For a very special episode of The Fold, Duncan Greive analyses the Safer Online ...
Yes, they’re phenomenally expensive at the moment. But if you manage to track down a bargain or are keen on a splurge, there’s plenty of ways to make the kūmara worth it. As a child, there was no doubt in my mind: kūmara was the world’s best vegetable. This belief ...
Yes, they’re phenomenally expensive at the moment. But if you manage to track down a bargain or are keen on a splurge, there’s plenty of ways to make the kūmara worth it. As a child, there was no doubt in my mind: kūmara was the world’s best vegetable. This belief ...
Wayne Brown called most of his councillors ‘financially illiterate’ during a press conference yesterday morning. He then went back to the office and sent them emails from constituents who called them ‘dip shits’.Auckland mayor Wayne Brown spent a good portion of Thursday morning berating his councillors. In a 9.30am press ...
Wayne Brown called most of his councillors ‘financially illiterate’ during a press conference yesterday morning. He then went back to the office and sent them emails from constituents who called them ‘dip shits’.Auckland mayor Wayne Brown spent a good portion of Thursday morning berating his councillors. In an 8.30am press ...
Budget 2023’s promise of significant additional ECE funding has the potential to help many centres avoid financial unviability and hardship, as long as the current 20-hours conditions are kept, prompting the Early Childhood Council to withdraw its ...
The only published and available best-selling indie book chart in New Zealand is the top 10 sales list recorded every week at Unity Books’ stores in High St, Auckland, and Willis St, Wellington.AUCKLAND1 Tomorrow, and Tomorrow, and Tomorrow by Gabrielle Zevin (Chatto & Windus, $37)Let’s get quizzical: ...
The only published and available best-selling indie book chart in New Zealand is the top 10 sales list recorded every week at Unity Books’ stores in High St, Auckland, and Willis St, Wellington.AUCKLAND1 Tomorrow, and Tomorrow, and Tomorrow by Gabrielle Zevin (Chatto & Windus, $37)Let’s get quizzical: ...
The Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in Care is being challenged in court by two of the institutions it is investigating Two churches have filed applications for a judicial review of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in Care, arguing that they don't bear responsibility for care of ...
* This is an excerpt from Rec Room. Sign up for regular Friday dispatches here. It’s a long weekend for most, so you might be keen to try out some new shows. Whatever you do, don’t start with HBO’s Succession successor The Idol (Neon). Billed as an over-sexed journey into ...
* This is an excerpt from Rec Room. Sign up for regular Friday dispatches here. It’s a long weekend for most, so you might be keen to try out some new shows. Whatever you do, don’t start with HBO’s Succession successor The Idol (Neon). Billed as an over-sexed journey into ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Geoffrey Browne, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Melbourne School of Design, The University of Melbourne Shutterstock When a driver and a pedestrian approach a T-intersection, who has to give way? In newly published research we tested over 1,000 road users’ knowledge ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nicholas Khoo, Associate Professor of International Politics, University of Otago Getty Images Russia’s war with Ukraine is now at a critical turning point. The relentless missile and drone strikes on the capital Kyiv may look like a sign of strength, ...
New Zealand scored highest in a recent global survey on protection against discrimination of transgender people, but for some, that sentiment did not extend to access to single-sex facilities. The latest global survey from Ipsos – the LGBT+ Pride 2023 survey – shows that 84% of New Zealanders believe transgender ...
New Zealand scored highest in a recent global survey on protection against discrimination of transgender people, but for some, that sentiment did not extend to access to single-sex facilities. The latest global survey from Ipsos – the LGBT+ Pride 2023 survey – shows that 84% of New Zealanders believe transgender ...
New Zealand Politics Daily is a collation of the most prominent issues being discussed in New Zealand. It is edited by Dr Bryce Edwards of The Democracy Project. Today’s contentMEDIA REGULATION AND CODE OF CONDUCT, BROADCASTING Glenn McConnell (Post): ‘The cost will be everyday Kiwis’: New media regulation concerns civil society (paywalled) ...
With at least four local actors in front of camera and two comedy vets behind the scenes, shouldn’t it be ‘The Office Australasia’? It’s The Office, with a twist. “We figured the world is ready for a loveable, flawed, lady boss”, said BBC Studios ANZ general manager Kylie Washington. Indeed, ...
New Zealand’s trade deficit narrowed to $3.2 billion dollars in the March 2023 quarter, compared with $3.9 billion in the March 2022 quarter, according to data released by Stats NZ today. The main contributor to the narrowing of the deficit ...
Amazon’s top-selling digital reading device now offers much more than just books on a screen. But is that a good thing? All day, I think about words. From the moment I open my laptop, I tap away at my keyboard, turning letters into words, words into sentences and sentences into ...
The seat is the first on the general roll contested by Te Pāti Māori this election, with Skipworth shifting her attention there after Meka Whaitiri defected to the party. ...
Climate Justice Taranaki criticises the Ministry for Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE)’s proposals to enable vast expansion of renewable energy generation and transmission by removing policy barriers. “The proposed national policy statements ...
Today, President of Te Pāti Māori, John Tamihere has confirmed that Heather Te-Au Skipworth will stand for Te Pāti Māori in the Tukituki electorate this election. Heather Te-Au Skipworth was previously confirmed as the candidate for the Ikaroa-Rawhiti ...
Heather Te-Au Skipworth, the hopeful MP who stood aside in Ikaroa-Rawhiti to allow for Meka Whaitiri, will run in the Tukituki electorate in this year’s election. In a statement, Te-Au Skipworth called the decision to stand in Tukituki a “no brainer” as she was born in Hastings and raised in ...
National’s housing spokesperson Chris Bishop wants councils to zone enough land with enough pipes and roads to house 30 years’ worth of population growth, but not all through densification. In this week’s episode of When the Facts Change, Bernard Hickey asks Bishop just how big he wants Aotearoa to be, and ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Timothy Welch, Senior Lecturer in Urban Planning, University of Auckland Getty Images By withdrawing its support for the Medium Density Residential Standards (MDRS) it helped introduce in the first place, the National Party has essentially only made a soft policy ...
The Rally Your Village campaign to get South Auckland communities well for winter is a success – but organisers say low MMR immunisation rates are still a real worry. I arrive at the Pacific Hub in Ōtara Road and am greeted by the smell of meat on the barbecue, the ...
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I thought it worth carrying on with a discussion I was having with Red Logix last night.
That is around the potential impact of AI on our lives in the future. I was looking at the creative side of things. But, I think this has the potential to impact a number of areas, and should be of concern for us when we think about the futures of our children and grand-children with the way things are going.
I was first a bit shocked when my son asked ChatGPT to write a poem about me. The inputs were to write a dark 100 word poem about me, and that I was autistic, illiterate, and colour-blind. The illiterate and colourblind, definitely not. The autistic, maybe lol??
So it came up with one poem which I thought was quite good. So, I was interested to see what would happen if the same variables were inputted again. Would it just repeat the same poem, or come up with something different? Well, I think it came up with something better, and here it is:
Someone I showed this to said they were feeling sorry for ChatGPT lol.
The thing is, this is pretty good, and things will only get better from here.
Here is an amusing video from producer, Rick Beato on this. (pronounced Be art o).
He shows how people are now creating songs with replicas of the voices of popular singers, and how some people prefer the replicas to the original. He thinks it won't be long before record labels cut out the singer altogether, and create their own voices. In fact, if you spend as little as $100, there are some pretty good apps out there now to do this. For instance, have a listen to "Keela".
The point is, it won't be that long before AI writes the songs, creates the music, and sings the songs, and human creativity has basically been eliminated from the process.
On One News the other night, they had an item about Hollywood creators going on strike. One of their concerns was the possibility that AI could take their jobs. In the news item, a AI created film was shown. It was a bit rough around the edges, but simulated real people in the film. It was quite obvious that it is only a matter of time before it will be impossible to tell whether a film has real people or not.
So, I think the Hollywood creatives are justified in being very afraid.
One of my concerns with this is, are we about to effectively lose our souls to AI? The poem written about me seemed to replicate human emotions. But, the bot producing these presumably experiences nothing of the emotions it is emulating.
Another concern is that AI is not only going to impact creative industries, but many areas of our lives. So, what does that mean for future career opportunities for our children in 20 years time or whatever?
Or will it be that not that long in the future we will witness the last job on earth.
Thank you Smithfield- an excellent article that should be a post in its own right,
I have just read this story in the Guardian which suggests AI is a threat to humanity.
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/may/05/geoffrey-hinton-godfather-of-ai-fears-for-humanity
First they came for the Jericho professional firelighters with their newfangled oil-lit candles.
Then they came for the night cart pullers when Kaitaia put in a reticulated sewerage system .
Then for the psychologists when we all finally get our tailored algorithms to almost completely cure all mental illness.
And finally they came for me. Double-shot mocha thanks.
I understand that we have always progressed and opportunities have arisen from that progress. But, I think this is more fundamental in that anything we can do, AI will be able to do it better and faster.
sadly they don't seem to ever come for those that don't learn from history.
Wheels falling off?
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/489360/green-mp-elizabeth-kerekere-resigns-from-party
Now she has "engaged the services of an employment lawyer".
This wreaks of an overblown ego and a sense of entitlement. Sounds like the Greens are well rid of her.
But the loss of one MP is hardly “wheels falling off”.
One?
Pat-I have no idea what you mean.
It is the beginning of May and so far this year we have had the resignation of Jacinda Ardern, Stuart Nash, Mika Whaitiri and now Elizabeth Kerekere (off the top of my head)…all from the governing parties.
You may not consider that indicative of anything but from where im sitting its not exactly indicating stability and control.
I forgot about Nash!
good/better to clean house before the election campaign starts.
However, Ardern left because she was burnt out, and she picked her timing well. Nash left because he was doing his job badly. We don't really know why Whaitiri left or why now, Kerekere's position was obviously untenably all round. Those things are all different.
Ardern's timing was obviously about stability for Labour. If Kerekere was pushed, this also strikes me as being about stability (she was a loose unit for the election). Nash is retiring (he's not the only one). That leaves Whaitiri.
The reasons (even if they are as described) are moot….the perception much less so.
4 (if my memory is accurate which it may not be) is becoming something of a habit.
not so much a habit as a series of unrelated events.
I'd be more convinced if Ardern hasn't been included (because hers was an ordinary resignation).
We are all well rid of her. I will never forget her sneering distain for submitters to the Parliamentary process who happened to not share her ideological viewpoint.
It wouldn't surprise me if she popped up as another Maori Party candidate at the next election.
They wouldn't want her
One of the better opinions about decling global population I've read – obviously because it fits my world view. However, there's a lot for those who still believe in the economic growth paradigm to think about – it doesn't demonise 'over-populated poor countries' or their people, which some of the doomsday narratives and blame-gamers do.
You would probably enjoy Peter Zeihan. His thesis has pretty much been that the world won't continue on as it has been for various reasons, including demographic.
He does a short video series on demographics as it affects various parts of the world.
I think the areas that will reduce will be manufacturing to do with consumer goods.
However, other areas may increase. For instance, a lot of businesses will seek to automate to reduce their labour costs due to decreased demand. And, also, there is the coming influx of green technology.
So, there will be declines in some areas, but increases in others.
A fair primer – but he's still talking within the economic growth model, not beyond it – does he have an alternative paradigm – and does he have it in writing, rather than video format?
Zeihan has published four books. The most recent The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization is what you might be looking for.
Most people find his approach well worth engaging with, even if you do not agree with all of his underlying assumptions and conclusions. If nothing else he is highly educated and exceptionally experienced in this field – and employs a decent team of researchers.
He completed his post-grad study at Otago – and has a very soft spot for NZ. Comes back here for tramping holidays whenever he can.
You are correct – in that he is talking to the economic growth model in that clip, but he frequently acknowledges that humans have never faced this demographic inversion ever before – and we absolutely no idea of what economic model might work, or how it will pan out.
Thanks – will look that up
So imagine a world where advanced AI in lower-population economies and societies look after more of the drudgery than now.
No more driving or hauling. Fewer surgeons and nurses. Fewer teachers. Fewer lawyers and accountants. Fewer low-paid laborious jobs. Fewer farm jobs of any kind. Deep mechanisation of life.
Less and less trust in corporatised or politicised media, so people privilege actual dialogue. Far less human error. Less waste and manufacturing mistakes.
More interesting and targeted entertainment. More time to be creative and innovative in our own way. More ability to be good humans.
Most people are completely under-estimating the implications of below replacement levels of fertility. Right now South Korea – which is merely leading the pack – is at 0.8, and on track to be 0.7 in just a few more years.
This means that for every 100 South Koreans who are alive today – there will be only 4 South Koreans in their great-grandchildren's generation. Roughly a 95% population collapse. Pretty much all developed nations are on the same path, and so far there does not seem to be any organic floor to how low this will go.
AI might change the supply side of the problem, but will do little on the demand side because it will not consume in the way humans do.
What are the downsides of low fertility like this?
Japan has been living with a few of the policy consequences for a while. Seem remarkably similar to NZ's own labour shortages.
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2020/03/shrinkanomics-policy-lessons-from-japan-on-population-aging-schneider
Japan had a 'first mover' advantage in this game, they started depopulating two decades before anyone else. The strategy they came up with was to shift a lot of their manufacturing capacity out of Japan – where they knew there was going to be a shortage of cost-effective labour – to the locations where their markets are. And then retain the design and planning in Japan which has high margins and kept their economy afloat.
For instance the largest Toyota factories in the world are in the USA.
This worked for Japan because they really had no competitors in this space for several decades. But it can only work if you have a partner nation who still has the labour resource and the market for your product. When everyone is in the same ageing boat – it fast becomes a zero sum game.
For a wee place like New Zealand, what we've seen with COVID is a little precursor to low fertility:
struggling to see downside here.
The counter- balance to that view is made here:
https://www.palladiummag.com/2023/04/06/birth-rates-are-collapsing/
In brief – there is no reason to think there is a floor on this fertility collapse. Secondly we have no credible or economic model that might be applicable. And thirdly – the linked article tries to express this – we greatly overestimate the relative scarcity of true creativity and talent. Those individuals who make the breakthroughs which keep innovation moving are rare. Really rare. Even with a population of 8b we still do not have enough of them.
In other words it is not at all clear that a falling population will have the capacity to maintain the resources to sustain even current levels of per capita human development, much less improve them.
And it does strike as somewhat pathological to hate your fellow human beings so much that anyone would welcome the extinction of 90% or more of us. In a moral sense it kinda makes your average mass murderer look like a choir boy.
So just to go through that articles' view of the downsides:
1. Labour Mobility
"Those who propose to “solve demographic collapse with immigration” are implicitly endorsing the creation of a toxic situation where the developed world’s economy is reliant on Africa staying poor."
That's not the way it's worked for Pacific Island countries for four decades. So much of their own home island economy is remittances. I loved hearing rich wineries beg for workers, and beg so hard they built accommodation for them, and have to increase wages fast. We used to have large scale employers like that and scarcity is doing what unions used to.
2. Breeding and Innovation.
"The sociological profile most amenable to what we think of as modern cosmopolitan society—one that is open-minded, pluralistic, technophilic, and egalitarian—is being aggressively deleted from the world’s population."
This weirdly eugenic argument might work in excessively xenophobic Japan. Perhaps we are all a great simmentals play. But the ex-colonies like Australia, Canada, US, NZ, and India know that their dynamism and success relies on the inter-border flow of people, ideas and capital.
3. The Family As Saviour
"Those who will throw their chips in with this massive cultural and demographic experiment by consciously creating a family, and then raising it in an intergenerationally durable culture, will shape the future of our species."
Women in the west who can since the 1970s abort children at will and otherwise control reproduction might humbly suggest that their human agency and wealth production and ability to innovate does not require conscious family production. Those who are required to generate families such as in most stern Muslim countries tend not to innovate and tend to be held back by this concept of family – and their population explosions strips their lands bare and turns their cities to squalor.
The authors of that article do acknowledge that this element of their argument looks uncomfortably close to the old eugenics of the 20th century. And in a world which now believes there is no such thing as biology, even the suggestion that talent, pro-socialability and productivity might have a genetic component that we are aggressively deleting from our population – is going to be met with vociferous denial.
And then in later life many deeply regret this lie they were told, mourning the children they left too late to have.
Population collapse happening in Iran as well. Sitting at 1.71 in 2020 and dropping.
Not sure that stabilising at 95+ million people by 2040 counts as collapse.
https://www.mei.edu/publications/what-irans-emerging-demographic-tsunami-means-tehran
And from that same article:
The further the fertility rate drops below 2.1 the faster the process. It's a bit like going bankrupt – slowly at first, then fast.
I first started mentioning fertility collapse a few years back, so its a bit gratifying to see it getting acknowledged and discussed. And it is such a novel and disturbing prospect – way worse in many aspects than COVID – that I don't think anyone even begins to properly understand the implications.
Have you seen this Red?
Welcome to the hyper-ageing nation that is New Zealand
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/300730132/welcome-to-the-hyperageing-nation-that-is-new-zealand
We have the richest nations in the world building bridges that fall down yet 2000 years ago with a world population of around 100mn, aqueducts were built that are still in use today. I'm pretty sure amongst our 8bn people there's enough smarts and ability to use AI and automation to eliminate manual labour, reduce engineering errors and enable a better quality of life for everyone
As an actual automation engineer I'm very much inclined to that view myself. If AI turns out to be an assistant and amplifier of human capacity – as seems a reasonable prospect – then yes I agree the potential is unlimited.
But just as money makes a person more of who they already are for both good and bad – I would ask that if we are going to amplify people with AI, then what exactly is it that we doing here?
Yep, I'm not seeing the downsides.
I'm seeing problems if we don't address the social and cultural upheaval, for sure and humans are a bit shite at this – regressing into nationalism and all the other isms, but it can be avoided.
Compare for example Merkel's pragmatic response to the very well-educated, young, first wave of Syrian refugees to Orban's protectionism in Hungary. And, as Zeihan (above) mentions – Canada's immigration policy. Again though, they're working within economic growth. The problem of personal health services is problematic as well – and yes, Japan is already experimenting with technological solutions.
In terms of earth sustaining life, less consumption in our profligate growth economy (as you say, more time for personal creativity etc. and inherent value from that) is essential.
Imagine that!
– MLK 1963 –
One reason why ACT, and National by extension, should never be allowed to get their hands on the Government tills and occupy the Treasury benches.
Ditching the dog-whistle and opting for the full-blown Alphorn, Seymour announces war on beneficiaries without even a shred of evidence to show that his underhand insinuations are accurate and correct.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/05/david-seymour-says-freeze-benefits-for-people-who-haven-t-filled-out-their-census.html
David Seymour is effectively saying that all people in the areas that are most affected by recent weather events who have not yet filled out their Census form and who receive Government benefits & assistance will be cut off and left to dry. I cannot understand why anybody would vote for this fellow.
Hard to call new low on this guy. It's like every time he opens his mouth he spews some new hate.
Punching down is his road house. Must be nice to be that smug and utterly indifferent to the human condition.
Those people already face a potential fine of up to $2,000. How many times does David Seymour and his merry band of privileged want to kick down those who are already down? It feels like a vindictive streak running their veins.
While English press otherwise wanks on about anointing another King today, actual politics still continues.
UK Labour is now the largest party in UK local government, for the first time sine 2002.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2023/may/04/local-elections-2023-latest-results-reactions-polls-close-england-conservatives-labour-rishi-sunak-keir-starmer-lib-dems-greens-live-updates
Top work Keir Starmer and team.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/auckland-rotary-club-apologises-over-images-of-former-pm-jacinda-arderns-face-on-toilet-seat/SIUOX3VUW5BW5BPYVD5SZR363Y/
Revolting specimens of humanity. She's gone from the top job yet they are still pouring vitriol all over her.
Highly respected members of society, no less! [putting away into the bottom drawer my pile of sticky labels with derogatory stereotypes]
From the text:
Oh yeah? Look at the image. That was an innocent joke? The team wore the effigies during the debate.
A picture is worth a thousand words.
And I understand that the chap in the picture with his hand in the toilet is Greg Moyle, Deputy Chair of the Waitematā Local Board. C&R of course.
Toilet ‘humour’ seems to find fertile soil with certain RW politicians, e.g., Wayne Brown and his ‘joke’ about peeing on a NZH journalist. Of course, with a bit of (Google) effort one could easily dig up more examples.
Bugger, I’m slipping into the stereotyping hole, again
They're so old anything that helps with a bowel movement is a blessing.
Just awful. Rotary members are generally tory through and through, have encountered a number of them over the years. Their party trick is ingratiating community service aka Philanthropy mini.
I saw a sharp meme about the astonishing revelations of US Supreme Court Judge Clarence Thomas and the ongoing imbroglio:
"Clarence Thomas promises to adopt Code of Ethics. For the right price."
Those Restore Passenger Rail protesters surely need a medal for best timed protest:
Comprehensive passenger rail disasters this week in Auckland and Wellington, and a spectacular set of failures and tough reviews about Kiwirail's passenger ferries, plus being roasted by the Minister of Transport multiple times.
Stick at it protesters; you're annoying but you are right and your timing is perfect.
Rumor has it. That the commerce commission has ok'd the amalgamation of cell phone towers into two independent identities!!!
Shades of our supermarket, timber suppliers electricity etc duopolys.
When will we get a govt that is willing to put a red hot poker up CCs arse and demand that they work for NZs peasants rather than corporate NZ
The three main operators have sold their towers off in a short space of time. And one has said they are moving to satellite coverage through Starlink. Details of how this will work haven't been revealed yet, but could be expensive, and limited bandwidth. Major advance for the large parts of the country where coverage is sketchy.
The towers are looking a bit like a stranded assett and may be seeing less use than currently. Taking them into two operators really won't change much, but will make the cell network much easier to regulate and maybe nationalise as essential infrastructure.
Point taken Graeme. So what I understand your saying is that you maintain that this sale is more successful than the greatest NZ salesman of all time who sold the "Yellow Pages" just before Google arrived.
Maybe….
There's also that it doesn't make much sense any more to have three competing networks of towers, and the 'hilltop wars' between the players are becoming irrelevant with satellite and 4 & 5G. There's a lot of shared sites now.
Around here (Queenstown) most of the sites go back to 2G when they were hammer and tongs claiming hilltops and fighting each other's consents. So you need three phones / sims to get good coverage, each has an area of near exclusivity. Having independent tower providers who compete on coverage and volume might improve things. Ideal would be a single state owned network
The Icy Commander.
5/5/1960
Word to Grant Robertson pre Budget:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DNxXRigHri4