Here's an intellectual challenge: disinformation & misinformation. Split the difference!
Four in five Kiwis believe some disinformation, report finds…
A newly released report paints a worrying picture for New Zealand, with four in every five Kiwis believing some sort of misinformation and many paradoxically believing misinformation is a threat to democracy.
Just more than half (54%) of those who strongly believed misinformation had quit mainstream media, the survey found.
I'll have a go at that one (first one's too hard). On the face of it, the reporter is telling us that misinformation got up & vacated the msm and 54% of folks strongly believed that it had done so. I recommend deciding the reporter was wrong and meant to write that 54% of folks had exited the msm consumption habit. A feast for grammarians…
an upward thrusting force that at once empowered and overwhelmed the causes which Act and its fellow travellers dismissed as “Woke”. This was the magma of Māori nationalism
Act placed itself athwart the Māori nationalists’ path. It promised to turn back the relentless advance of “Aotearoa” against “New Zealand”. The Treaty of Waitangi would be re-written, all traces of co-governance would be swept away. A new, written constitution would entrench Pakeha privilege forever.
No worries. Ain't a snowball's chance in hell the motley crew in ACT are capable of drafting a constitution let alone achieving a consensus on adopting it.
Please stop re-posting Daily Blog nonsense here. If people what to read it, they can do it for themselves. We can do without Trotter’s over-egged angstsy boomer racism.
Somewhat presupposes political initiatives advocating constitutional reform lack relevance tho. I'm tempted to agree with you but we must proceed on the basis of evidence.
First, you have a party heading north of 15% in the polls advocating it. According to the leftist, that is – I haven't noticed them doing so myself yet.
Second, this other leftist ex-PM has been doing so for quite a while:
Sir Geoffrey Palmer QC, Victoria University of Wellington, Te Herenga Waka – Faculty of Law…
Abstract: An address to the Constitutional Workshop of Pacific Women’s Watch New Zealand, delivered on 16 November 2019.
The address introduces Sir Geoffrey Palmer and Dr Andrew Butler’s two books, A Constitution for Aotearoa New Zealand and Towards Democratic Renewal – Ideas for Constitutional Change in New Zealand, and their proposals for a written constitution.
It discusses the principal obstacles to constitutional change in New Zealand, in addition to some concerning global trends and challenges to democracy overseas. It also canvasses a number of areas that are in need of reform, from electoral law to local government.
Does he, or is it just a chance to over-extend a metaphor with a slather of florid hyperbole? Perhaps he is bored and longs for some sort of upheaval, and isn't too fussy about what sort. Mostly though, he just needs a good editor.
And he does that volcano metaphor until way past when the magma has hardened..
But I agree with the point he is making..
Namely the significance of the 7.9 for the maori party in the latest roy morgan poll..
That there is a coalescing consensus round tpm..that is going on within maori political circles..(and why wouldn't they..?..)
And one of the drivers of this is the rise of the racist far-right act party..and their vows to roll back any affirmative action..to tear up the treaty..etc..etc..maori-bashing all the way up to the election..
And for maori..voting for tpm is the most effective way of pushing back against this racist agenda..
I expect tpm to do better than this 7.9% at the actual election…
And as for the election results.. whichever way it goes we are going to have a radical government..
Either the milquetoast national party..their genitals firmly in the grip of act..tearing up the treaty etc..
Or the milquetoast labour party…their genitals firmly in the grip of tpm and the greens..
Where we will see major moves on environmental/poverty issues…
The choice for voters could not be clearer/more focused..
Those days of moaning about lab/nats being tweedle dum and tweedle see…are consigned to history..
Namely the significance of the 7.9 for the maori party in the latest roy morgan poll..
No significance that I can see. One poll doesn't indicate a trend.
Looking at the polling over recent time, that 7+% looks somewhat like an outlier. TPM have tended been in the 3.5% to 4.5% range (way better than where they were at the start of the year).
I'll get interested if TPM get a few more high polls.
The trend is quite apparent – Natz on a steady slide under Luxon, Labour on the way up under Chippie.
Act will gain in proportion to Natz loss, while the Greens will remain steady (though I expect them to do better on election day) and the TPM will gain +5%.
A third term Labour/Greens/TPM government, ya hoo!
That was what I linked to on wikipedia for 2023. Right up to date, and generally favouring a left government at present.
The right really doesn't have traction. Compare it to the wikipedia poll pages for 2005 (probably the closest recent analogy). Then have a look at 2008 and 2017 for what two different types of a opposition winning combo looks like.
I don't think the Luxon has quite the political pull power of a Jacinda.
Meanwhile Barry Soper reckons there will be a change of government, coz of the numpties around Hipkins (this is just a reprise of the it's only Clark or Ardern lines).
Barry Soper is pretty useless at any kind of analysis. He seems to hoick most of his reckons out of his arse after having a boozy afternoon as far I can see.
But as you point out, he doesn't have wide repository of talking points (or 'noisome dags' as I prefer to frame them) and frequently recycles them.
I tend to only notice him if he does something surprising like being (in retrospect) actually right about something. Which means I haven't noticed him much for the last 25 years. He is one of those people who just claims analytical skills rather than exhibiting it.
Incidentally this kind of crap was what I would up doing a lot of work on in my youth…..
Matt Whitehead reckons it's technically not a poll of polls. I don't really understand the difference despite him explaining it to me.
It's not weighting the polls, it's just extrapolating gaps between them for the trendline. There's little to no judgement call in the maths, just reporting facts, essentially.
And I'd agree with him. However with the paucity of polls, the piss-poor sampling techniques used, and the sample sizes, no amount of massaging is going to do much to the lousy data.
Basically he is referring to the kind of data massaging that would work in the US or UK because of the number of polls and the frequency with which they are done. Even there it is fraught with actuality (ie elections) disagreeing with the elegant cross-poll analysis.
For the purposes of getting a general idea of trends (the only thing worth looking at), whoever is doing the wikipedia one has got it about right.
Suggests that Green voters are not evenly spread throughout the population also.
oh yeah, I hadn't considered that. So if the 1,000 or whatever people that week happened to be less urban, then less Greens? Wouldn't they be adjusting the pollees for things like rural/urban?
But that is less effective with smaller sample numbers. Those polling Green are in the tens in the normal sample size, while National and Labour are in the hundreds.
It only takes a few differences the sampled population between polls.
The scary correlation, is that voters for the Libertarian lunatics in ACT, appear to be more evenly spread
I suspect Māori, like young people, are also under represented in the voting, in both Māori and general rolls, which would cancel out the effect to an extent.
Geoffrey Miller is the Democracy Project’s geopolitical analyst and writes on current New Zealand foreign policy and related geopolitical issues.
Is New Zealand about to join ‘NATO+’? That seems to be the effective endgame, if reports ahead of New Zealand Prime Minister Chris Hipkins’ attendance at the NATO summit in Lithuania are anything to go by.
A globe-trotting PM blithely joining Aotearoa to NATO while an election campaign gets under way in his absence is just the sort of smart move one would expect from Labour so I get why he's dreaming about it. Nothing wrong with outflanking the Nats on the right. It's a time-tested and proven strategy.
The sidelining of George Kennan with the continuance of NATO and expansion after the end of the Cold War (and end of the Warsaw Pact). And the consequences of this in Georgia and Ukraine (colour revolution).
China being allowed into the WTO order without formally ending the Korean War and removing American troops or autonomy for Taiwan within China as per Hong Kong. This led to the South China Sea moves and the American response – promotion of democracy in Hong Kong (the 1997 agreement only allowed autonomy till 2047), The resulting crackdown leading to American determination to secure Taiwan's continued self-governance.
USA unilateralism in Iraq and the NATO breach of the no fly zone in Libya leading to the development of BRICS.
The Russia-China alliance leading to Shanghai Co-operation Organisation (includes central Asian states of the former USSR, Pakistan and India and now Iran) and BRI going through Pakistani Kashmir leads to India playing a dual game within the QUAD (all while a BRIC and in the SCO group).
PRESENT
NATO is seeking non European collective security partners – given the UN is compromised by the veto.
Given our historic UN multi-lateralism bi-partisanship – this is easy for Labour.
NATO is also offering to support the containment of China – with partners such as those in the QUAD.
ASIA-PACIFIC
We have a nuclear free Pacific policy – so are not in ANZUS or AUKUS (but are security partners of Oz and might join up to AUKUS 11 – technology development co-operation).
We affirm the International Law of the Sea Conventions, thus have issues with China in the South China Sea. But not in Taiwan.
For us, the issue is not so much involvement in the containment of a nation that is now our major trading partner, but diplomacy.
Outflanking National on the right, bollocks.
It’s so centrist, that National says nothing. They’ll adopt it.
Excellent analysis & I bow to your grasp of the geopolitical relevance.
Outflanking National on the right, bollocks. It’s so centrist, that National says nothing. They’ll adopt it.
Only when in govt. Makes more sense for them to differentiate during the campaign – there are still voters who don't believe they're part of the same team…
If our foreign policy is to remain grounded in preserving some kind of rules-based global order in an increasingly multipolar world, we're much better off picking the "side" (such as it is) that's actually committed to preserving said order.
It's an inevitable choice irrespective of what political party is in power here.
Unless we want to abandon multilateralism, lose whatever street cred and trust we've accumulated in our relationships abroad, and sell out to whoever gives us the shiniest baubles irrespective of the political system we'd be implicitly supporting.
That's an option too. Just an incredibly shit one.
While Russia traditionally really dislikes a rules based global order.
The Chinese have done really well out of it once they decided to (mostly) be part of it. In many ways they have been pretty assiduous about following it and are getting better at it (admittedly only if you blur your vision and ignore a few things like the PCA Law of the Sea 2016 (?) decision on South China sea).
Dennis Frank – you must have a lot of time on your hands to indulge yourself so frequently here – up early, trawling sites to find something to enable your intellect to respond to. Be nice to have a variety of commenters though.
I deliberately waited a couple of hours due to Anne's similar hope yesterday, but none of them wrote in. There seems to be a significant dearth of leftists wanting to contribute here. As a radical centrist, I notice the lack from that part of the political spectrum since there was a huge ferment of such folk during my student years half a century back. I associated with them as a kindred spirit.
It's an interesting question on the interface between sociology and political activism: why has the ebb-tide on leftism gone out so far? I don't believe left-wingers are essentially stupid – which is what their collective non-performance indicates. There's something deeper happening in society to produce this mass effect.
But I gave myself a year off until recently, BG. I don't like Labour's sleep-walk. Aotearoa deserves better, and from the Greens too. Stimulating thought processes is a deliberate consciousness-raising strategy to those who deploy it – for the purpose of being helpful, on my part.
Anyone who doesn't like the consequences really ought to focus on themselves rather than me. I suspect leftists may be collectively baffled by their lack of traction. Well, the solution to that problem is to figure out why – not grizzle at anyone who tries to help them do so.
Yes, there's a real basis upon which to proceed, true. However the campaign is a political marketing exercise & I see no such endeavour on the left yet.
To me framing is the essence of that. Somehow they must weave an overview for the left that makes them seem a viable alternative to National/ACT.
Framing is then the nifty way of capturing the essence of that alternative – effectively enough to distill it into an impression on the minds of floating voters. Vox pops are the standard news media technique for flushing that out of the minds of the people and providing it to political marketers as feedback – so they can see if their message is percolating thro the social ecosystem.
From here on in, I'll be watching such media carefully to discern the zeitgeist. Currently we just have underwhelming by the Nat/Lab duo, with polling reflecting that. Lull before the storm??
I prefer to give personal attention when required.
Always fun when people give me a opportunity to demonstrate what 4 decades of training on the public nets does to an inherent attribute towards being really nasty and condescending.
Having been on the receiving end of your attention once or twice some years ago, that's a relief. I have tried to attune to the ethos here since then.
I realise that being a Labour voter you'll be irritated whenever I do a critique of something they've done or are doing, but I try to give them credit when due and one such occasion occurred earlier today when the PM gave a foreign policy speech. Heard it reported on the RNZ news & thought far out!
He got it right. Not just that, the key points that the editorial staff selected from his speech for their report indicated that they got resonance with the media too. That made him come across as an authentic leader for Aotearoa.
Thought it worthwhile to acknowledge that & I'll write about it on DR. I reckon it's auspicious & could be a real boost for Labour's prospects…
Unless they seem to be depending on it and just trolling.
I still have the little bit of code I wrote a long time ago that would automatically add 12 hours to specific annoying early morning commenters on Open Mike.
Along with the one that refuses high speed comments with a image of a monkey grinning.
Yip if your being pedantic, there's official posts posted by the ordained ministers of the standard, then there's freelance post/comments like mr Frank's, then there's ya run of the mill comments like this😉
It's an interesting question on the interface between sociology and political activism: why has the ebb-tide on leftism gone out so far? I don't believe left-wingers are essentially stupid – which is what their collective non-performance indicates. There's something deeper happening in society to produce this mass effect.
'Them's fighting words' Dennis Frank. Hopefully we will have a flurry of interested/interesting posters like we have had in the Science curriculum post.
I don't think Leftism is dead. Take a look at the Green Party tax and social policies. A Wealth Tax, rent controls and livable rental properties, with more to come at the election.
Labour's minimum wage and benefit rises have certainly helped the less well off; the numbers in poverty in NZ are starting to come down. I heard a guy on RNZ the other day saying that the increased minimum wage was encouraging backpackers to take jobs and work longer which is presumably true for locals too.
Under Labour there have been moves favouring public transport (light rail, cheap bus fares, cycleways, investment in rail). More than 10,000 state houses have been added (I saw 14,000 somewhere) and house prices have now fallen significantly from their ridiculous highs-a good thing that is still happening.
A Labour/Green/TPM government will continue this progress. A Luxon/Seymour government will take NZ back to housing bubbles, selling off state houses, tax changes favouring the top 5%, minimum wages frozen, roads of national insignificance and public transport will get crumbs.
Yes, the Greens have some (in my view – excellent) policies that truly differentiate themselves from NAct and Labour. NAct with their rush to make things awful as quickly as possible, and Labour with glacial incremental improvement that is overwhelmed by their love of neoliberal damage.
Now to promote Green policies as much as possible before the election!
My hot take is that the traditional left is dying due to its lack of boldness, desire to provide an actual point of difference from the status quo, and ability to keep it's shit together for longer than an electoral cycle or two.
It makes for good, don't scare the horses, middle-of-the-road, bread and butter politics. But on the flipside makes real progress agonisingly slow and electorally risky.
The question is how to shift the Overton Window back to the left.
A generation without home ownership would have to direct their attention to a regime without CGT (35/36 have one) or estate tax (24/36 have one) and say why not a wealth tax. For a nation without a CGT or estate tax the only alternative is the Greens wealth tax (historic failure to apply a CGT or estate tax catch up).
NACT know this and have a plan.
It's to replace their white boomer vote with an immigrant vote against Maori privilege (an update on their post Rogernmics attack on Maori on welfare).
Thus a government program opposed to UNDRIP implementation, any building on whanau ora and threatening to end WT and the HRC and a re-write of the Treaty – while adopting the US welfare and penal policy model to control "Maori". It would also not surprise if they were to criminalise public space protest.
Homophobic organisation which promotes the chemical castration of same sex attracted and neurodiverse children looses its attempt to close down a charity which supports Lesbian, Gay and Bi-sexual people.
"A transgender rights group has lost its case to have a gay rights organisation stripped of its charitable status in what is believed to be the first case of its kind in the UK.
Mermaids, which supports transgender, non-binary and gender diverse children and their families, had appealed against the decision of the Charity Commission to grant LGB Alliance charitable status in 2021.
It is thought to be the first time in the UK that a charity has sought to have the charitable status of another removed".
It is not just a "simple" disagreement. Gender ideology denies even the very existence of "same sex attraction". We are all supposed to be "homogenderal". We say that is homophobic as hell, and that is before we get into what they are telling children about sex and sexuality.
Linguistic imperialism (narrative control) is what it is. Possibly better put as "homosexualphobic", as not every lesbian, gay or bi person wants to be assimilated into the masculine or feminine or non-binary gender identity empire.
It possibly speaks to one difference within the community – LGB and LGB+. The other being lesbian women solidarity with safe women's spaces, which is a wider society issue.
It would be best if the adults sorted out co-existence in respectful ways without involving the children … there is a difference between educating children about society around them (larger than their own family) without placing them within that world while they are developing.
Adults are a bit complicated (sex, gender, sexuality etc).
I've never heard that term before, but it's spot on. I'd add "linguistic chauvanism" as well. The redefining of accepted terms with fierce enforcement, and shrieks of bigotry and Nazism to anyone who doesn't agree or even understand.
And the other side of the story. Trans youth charity Mermaids was supported by a coalition of LGBTQ+ groups in the challenge to LGB Alliance's charity status. They argued the group "shouldn’t be recognised as a charity because of it ‘exclusively focuses’ on anti-trans campaigning and not on the promotion of lesbian, gay and bisexual rights.” The LGB Alliance HQ is at 55 Tufton St, that nest of UK neo-lib think tanks.
"The tribunal…found Mermaids [due to being a charity itself] does not have legal standing to challenge the Charity Commission’s decision to recognise the LGB Alliance. Though it may be painted as such, the ruling is not a win or a vindication for the LGB Alliance. The ‘gender-critical’ group escaped judgement on a technicality."
"In its ruling, the tribunal stated that its two-person panel was split on the issue of whether the LGB Alliance is rightfully a charity. It declined to make a hypothetical conclusion on the issue. The tribunal also noted that the Charity Commission was seen to have concerns regarding the LGB Alliance going “beyond the boundaries of civilised debate”, and said these concerns “were well-founded”.
They argued the group "shouldn’t be recognised as a charity because of it ‘exclusively focuses’ on anti-trans campaigning and not on the promotion of lesbian, gay and bisexual rights.”
the T+ activists have run quite the propaganda campaign on this. Pink News can keep that running as long as it likes, but where is the evidence?
Meanwhile, in Feb 2021 Dave Hewitt wrote this fact check on one of the early accusations about LGBA. This highlights a number of common themes in such accusations, and makes a connection with Pink News who also took part in the LGBA hate trans propaganda.
The insanity of the Australian Liberal Party exposed over Robodebt.
NZ could/should have the same type of Royal Commission over MSD.
Bennett abused her power as a minister, using the media to attack individuals who complained about the impact of the brutality MSD reforms had created.
We also need a serious look at the p-house debacle. A Royal Commission into this would help as well.
40 minute video follows, the first 6 minutes covers all the key points.
When I first saw press photos of Mr Whorrall, an America PhD entomology student & researcher who had been living out a dream to finish out his studies in Auckland, my first impression, besides sadness, was how gentle he appeared.Press released the middle photo from Mr Whorrall’s Facebook pageBy all ...
It's definitely not a renters market in New Zealand, as reported by 1 News last night. In fact the housing crisis has metastasised into a full-blown catastrophe in 2025, and the National Party Government’s policies are pouring petrol on the flames. Renters are being crushed under skyrocketing costs, first-time buyers ...
Would I lie to you? (oh yeah)Would I lie to you honey? (oh, no, no no)Now would I say something that wasn't true?I'm asking you sugar, would I lie to you?Writer(s): David Allan Stewart, Annie Lennox.Opinions issue forth from car radios or the daily news…They demand a bluer National, with ...
Skeptical Science is partnering with Gigafact to produce fact briefs — bite-sized fact checks of trending claims. You can submit claims you think need checking via the tipline. Do the 31,000 signatures of the OISM Petition Project invalidate the scientific consensus on climate change? Climatologists made up only 0.1% of signatories ...
In the 1980s and early 1990s when I wrote about Argentine and South American authoritarianism, I borrowed the phrase “cultura del miedo” (culture of fear) from Juan Corradi, Guillermo O’Donnell, Norberto Lechner and others to characterise the social anomaly that exists in a country ruled by a state terror regime ...
In the week of Australia’s 3 May election, ASPI will release Agenda for Change 2025: preparedness and resilience in an uncertain world, a report promoting public debate and understanding on issues of strategic importance to ...
Chris Bishop has unveiled plans for new roads in Tauranga, Auckland and Northland that will cost up to a combined $10 billion. Photo: Lynn GrievesonLong stories short from Aotearoa political economy around housing, poverty and climate in the week to Saturday, April 26:Chris Bishop ploughed ahead this week with spending ...
Unless you've been living under a rock, you would have noticed that New Zealand’s government, under the guise of economic stewardship, is tightening the screws on its citizens, and using debt as a tool of control. This isn’t just a conspiracy theory whispered in pub corners...it’s backed by hard data ...
The budget runup is far from easy.Budget 2025 day is Thursday 22 May. About a month earlier in a normal year, the macroeconomic forecasts would be completed (the fiscal ones would still be tidying up) and the main policy decisions would have been made (but there would still be a ...
On 25 April 2021, I published an internal all-staff Anzac Day message. I did so as the Secretary of the Department of Home Affairs, which is responsible for Australia’s civil defence, and its resilience in ...
You’ve likely noticed that the disgraced blogger of Whale Oil Beef Hooked infamy, Cameron Slater, is still slithering around the internet, peddling his bile on a shiny new blogsite calling itself The Good Oil. If you thought bankruptcy, defamation rulings, and a near-fatal health scare would teach this idiot a ...
The Atlas Network, a sprawling web of libertarian think tanks funded by fossil fuel barons and corporate elites, has sunk its claws into New Zealand’s political landscape. At the forefront of this insidious influence is David Seymour, the ACT Party leader, whose ties to Atlas run deep.With the National Party’s ...
Nicola Willis, National’s supposed Finance Minister, has delivered another policy failure with the Family Boost scheme, a childcare rebate that was big on promises but has been very small on delivery. Only 56,000 families have signed up, a far cry from the 130,000 Willis personally championed in National’s campaign. This ...
This article was first published on 7 February 2025. In January, I crossed the milestone of 24 years of service in two militaries—the British and Australian armies. It is fair to say that I am ...
He shall grow not old, as we that are left grow old.Age shall not weary him, nor the years condemn.At the going down of the sun and in the morningI will remember him.My mate Keith died yesterday, peacefully in the early hours. My dear friend in Rotorua, whom I’ve been ...
The podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers on Thursday night features co-hosts & talking about the week’s news with regular and special guests, including: on news New Zealand abstained from a vote on a global shipping levy on climate emissions and downgraded the importance ...
Hi,In case you missed it, New Zealand icon Lorde has a new single out. It’s called “What Was That”, and has a very low key music video that was filmed around her impromptu performance in New York’s Washington Square Park. When police shut down the initial popup, one of my ...
A strategy of denial is now the cornerstone concept for Australia’s National Defence Strategy. The term’s use as an overarching guide to defence policy, however, has led to some confusion on what it actually means ...
The IMF’s twice-yearly World Economic Outlook and Fiscal Monitor publications have come out in the last couple of days. If there is gloom in the GDP numbers (eg this chart for the advanced countries, and we don’t score a lot better on the comparable one for the 2019 to ...
For a while, it looked like the government had unfucked the ETS, at least insofar as unit settings were concerned. They had to be forced into it by a court case, but at least it got done, and when National came to power, it learned the lesson (and then fucked ...
The argument over US officials’ misuse of secure but non-governmental messaging platform Signal falls into two camps. Either it is a gross error that undermines national security, or it is a bit of a blunder ...
Cost of living ~1/3 of Kiwis needed help with food as cost of living pressures continue to increase - turning to friends, family, food banks or Work and Income in the past year, to find food. 40% of Kiwis also said they felt schemes offered little or no benefit, according ...
Hi,Perhaps in 2025 it shouldn’t come as a surprise that the CEO and owner of Voyager Internet — the major sponsor of the New Zealand Media Awards — has taken to sharing a variety of Anti-Muslim and anti-Jewish conspiracy theories to his 1.2 million followers.This included sharing a post from ...
In the sprint to deepen Australia-India defence cooperation, navy links have shot ahead of ties between the two countries’ air forces and armies. That’s largely a good thing: maritime security is at the heart of ...
'Cause you and me, were meant to be,Walking free, in harmony,One fine day, we'll fly away,Don't you know that Rome wasn't built in a day?Songwriters: Paul David Godfrey / Ross Godfrey / Skye Edwards.I was half expecting to see photos this morning of National Party supporters with wads of cotton ...
The PSA says a settlement with Health New Zealand over the agency’s proposed restructure of its Data and Digital and Pacific Health teams has saved around 200 roles from being cut. A third of New Zealanders have needed help accessing food in the past year, according to Consumer NZ, and ...
John Campbell’s Under His Command, a five-part TVNZ+ investigation series starting today, rips the veil off Destiny Church, exposing the rot festering under Brian Tamaki’s self-proclaimed apostolic throne. This isn’t just a church; it’s a fiefdom, built on fear, manipulation, and a trail of scandals that make your stomach churn. ...
Some argue we still have time, since quantum computing capable of breaking today’s encryption is a decade or more away. But breakthrough capabilities, especially in domains tied to strategic advantage, rarely follow predictable timelines. Just ...
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Pearl Marvell(Photo credit: Pearl Marvell. Image credit: Samantha Harrington. Dollar bill vector image: by pch.vector on Freepik) Igrew up knowing that when you had extra money, you put it under a bed, stashed it in a book or a clock, or, ...
The political petrified piece of wood, Winston Peters, who refuses to retire gracefully, has had an eventful couple of weeks peddling transphobia, pushing bigoted policies, undertaking his unrelenting war on wokeness and slinging vile accusations like calling Green co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick a “groomer”.At 80, the hypocritical NZ First leader’s latest ...
It's raining in Cockermouth and we're following our host up the stairs. We’re telling her it’s a lovely building and she’s explaining that it used to be a pub and a nightclub and a backpackers, but no more.There were floods in 2009 and 2015 along the main street, huge floods, ...
A recurring aspect of the Trump tariff coverage is that it normalises – or even sanctifies – a status quo that in many respects has been a disaster for working class families. No doubt, Donald Trump is an uncertainty machine that is tanking the stock market and the growth prospects ...
The National Party’s Minister of Police, Corrections, and Ethnic Communities (irony alert) has stumbled into yet another racist quagmire, proving that when it comes to bigotry, the right wing’s playbook is as predictable as it is vile. This time, Mitchell’s office reposted an Instagram reel falsely claiming that Te Pāti ...
In the week of Australia’s 3 May election, ASPI will release Agenda for Change 2025: preparedness and resilience in an uncertain world, a report promoting public debate and understanding on issues of strategic importance to ...
In a world crying out for empathy, J.K. Rowling has once again proven she’s more interested in stoking division than building bridges. The once-beloved author of Harry Potter has cemented her place as this week’s Arsehole of the Week, a title earned through her relentless, tone-deaf crusade against transgender rights. ...
Health security is often seen as a peripheral security domain, and as a problem that is difficult to address. These perceptions weaken our capacity to respond to borderless threats. With the wind back of Covid-19 ...
Would our political parties pass muster under the Fair Trading Act?WHAT IF OUR POLITICAL PARTIES were subject to the Fair Trading Act? What if they, like the nation’s businesses, were prohibited from misleading their consumers – i.e. the voters – about the nature, characteristics, suitability, or quantity of the products ...
Rod EmmersonThank you to my subscribers and readers - you make it all possible. Tui.Subscribe nowSix updates today from around the world and locally here in Aoteaora New Zealand -1. RFK Jnr’s Autism CrusadeAmerica plans to create a registry of people with autism in the United States. RFK Jr’s department ...
We see it often enough. A democracy deals with an authoritarian state, and those who oppose concessions cite the lesson of Munich 1938: make none to dictators; take a firm stand. And so we hear ...
370 perioperative nurses working at Auckland City Hospital, Starship Hospital and Greenlane Clinical Centre will strike for two hours on 1 May – the same day senior doctors are striking. This is part of nationwide events to mark May Day on 1 May, including rallies outside public hospitals, organised by ...
Character protections for Auckland’s villas have stymied past development. Now moves afoot to strip character protection from a bunch of inner-city villas. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāLong stories shortest from our political economy on Wednesday, April 23:Special Character Areas designed to protect villas are stopping 20,000 sites near Auckland’s ...
Artificial intelligence is poised to significantly transform the Indo-Pacific maritime security landscape. It offers unprecedented situational awareness, decision-making speed and operational flexibility. But without clear rules, shared norms and mechanisms for risk reduction, AI could ...
For what is a man, what has he got?If not himself, then he has naughtTo say the things he truly feelsAnd not the words of one who kneelsThe record showsI took the blowsAnd did it my wayLyrics: Paul Anka.Morena folks, before we discuss Winston’s latest salvo in NZ First’s War ...
Britain once risked a reputation as the weak link in the trilateral AUKUS partnership. But now the appointment of an empowered senior official to drive the project forward and a new burst of British parliamentary ...
Australia’s ability to produce basic metals, including copper, lead, zinc, nickel and construction steel, is in jeopardy, with ageing plants struggling against Chinese competition. The multinational commodities company Trafigura has put its Australian operations under ...
There have been recent PPP debacles, both in New Zealand (think Transmission Gully) and globally, with numerous examples across both Australia and Britain of failed projects and extensive litigation by government agencies seeking redress for the failures.Rob Campbell is one of New Zealand’s sharpest critics of PPPs noting that; "There ...
On Twitter on Saturday I indicated that there had been a mistake in my post from last Thursday in which I attempted to step through the Reserve Bank Funding Agreement issues. Making mistakes (there are two) is annoying and I don’t fully understand how I did it (probably too much ...
Indonesia’s armed forces still have a lot of work to do in making proper use of drones. Two major challenges are pilot training and achieving interoperability between the services. Another is overcoming a predilection for ...
The StrategistBy Sandy Juda Pratama, Curie Maharani and Gautama Adi Kusuma
As a living breathing human being, you’ve likely seen the heart-wrenching images from Gaza...homes reduced to rubble, children burnt to cinders, families displaced, and a death toll that’s beyond comprehension. What is going on in Gaza is most definitely a genocide, the suffering is real, and it’s easy to feel ...
Donald Trump, who has called the Chair of the Federal Reserve “a major loser”. Photo: Getty ImagesLong stories shortest from our political economy on Tuesday, April 22:US markets slump after Donald Trump threatens the Fed’s independence. China warns its trading partners not to side with the US. Trump says some ...
Last night, the news came through that Pope Francis had passed away at 7:35 am in Rome on Monday, the 21st of April, following a reported stroke and heart failure. Pope Francis. Photo: AP.Despite his obvious ill health, it still came as a shock, following so soon after the Easter ...
The 2024 Independent Intelligence Review found the NIC to be highly capable and performing well. So, it is not a surprise that most of the 67 recommendations are incremental adjustments and small but nevertheless important ...
This is a re-post from The Climate BrinkThe world has made real progress toward tacking climate change in recent years, with spending on clean energy technologies skyrocketing from hundreds of billions to trillions of dollars globally over the past decade, and global CO2 emissions plateauing.This has contributed to a reassessment of ...
Hi,I’ve been having a peaceful month of what I’d call “existential dread”, even more aware than usual that — at some point — this all ends.It was very specifically triggered by watching Pantheon, an animated sci-fi show that I’m filing away with all-time greats like Six Feet Under, Watchmen and ...
Once the formalities of honouring the late Pope wrap up in two to three weeks time, the conclave of Cardinals will go into seclusion. Some 253 of the current College of Cardinals can take part in the debate over choosing the next Pope, but only 138 of them are below ...
The National Party government is doubling down on a grim, regressive vision for the future: more prisons, more prisoners, and a society fractured by policies that punish rather than heal. This isn’t just a misstep; it’s a deliberate lurch toward a dystopian future where incarceration is the answer to every ...
The audacity of Don Brash never ceases to amaze. The former National Party and Hobson’s Pledge mouthpiece has now sunk his claws into NZME, the media giant behind the New Zealand Herald and half of our commercial radio stations. Don Brash has snapped up shares in NZME, aligning himself with ...
A listing of 28 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, April 13, 2025 thru Sat, April 19, 2025. This week's roundup is again published by category and sorted by number of articles included in each. The formatting is a ...
“What I’d say to you is…” our Prime Minister might typically begin a sentence, when he’s about to obfuscate and attempt to derail the question you really, really want him to answer properly (even once would be okay, Christopher). Questions such as “Why is a literal election promise over ...
Ruth IrwinExponential Economic growth is the driver of Ecological degradation. It is driven by CO2 greenhouse gas emissions through fossil fuel extraction and burning for the plethora of polluting industries. Extreme weather disasters and Climate change will continue to get worse because governments subscribe to the current global economic system, ...
A man on telly tries to tell me what is realBut it's alright, I like the way that feelsAnd everybody singsWe are evolving from night to morningAnd I wanna believe in somethingWriter: Adam Duritz.The world is changing rapidly, over the last year or so, it has been out with the ...
MFB Co-Founder Cecilia Robinson runs Tend HealthcareSummary:Kieran McAnulty calls out National on healthcare lies and says Health Minister Simeon Brown is “dishonest and disingenuous”(video below)McAnulty says negotiation with doctors is standard practice, but this level of disrespect is not, especially when we need and want our valued doctors.National’s $20bn ...
Chris Luxon’s tenure as New Zealand’s Prime Minister has been a masterclass in incompetence, marked by coalition chaos, economic lethargy, verbal gaffes, and a moral compass that seems to point wherever political expediency lies. The former Air New Zealand CEO (how could we forget?) was sold as a steady hand, ...
Has anybody else noticed Cameron Slater still obsessing over Jacinda Ardern? The disgraced Whale Oil blogger seems to have made it his life’s mission to shadow the former Prime Minister of New Zealand like some unhinged stalker lurking in the digital bushes.The man’s obsession with Ardern isn't just unhealthy...it’s downright ...
Skeptical Science is partnering with Gigafact to produce fact briefs — bite-sized fact checks of trending claims. You can submit claims you think need checking via the tipline. Is climate change a net benefit for society? Human-caused climate change has been a net detriment to society as measured by loss of ...
When the National Party hastily announced its “Local Water Done Well” policy, they touted it as the great saviour of New Zealand’s crumbling water infrastructure. But as time goes by it's looking more and more like a planning and fiscal lame duck...and one that’s going to cost ratepayers far more ...
Donald Trump, the orange-hued oligarch, is back at it again, wielding tariffs like a mob boss swinging a lead pipe. His latest economic edict; slapping hefty tariffs on imports from China, Mexico, and Canada, has the stench of a protectionist shakedown, cooked up in the fevered minds of his sycophantic ...
In the week of Australia’s 3 May election, ASPI will release Agenda for Change 2025: preparedness and resilience in an uncertain world, a report promoting public debate and understanding on issues of strategic importance to ...
One pill makes you largerAnd one pill makes you smallAnd the ones that mother gives youDon't do anything at allGo ask AliceWhen she's ten feet tallSongwriter: Grace Wing Slick.Morena, all, and a happy Bicycle Day to you.Today is an unofficial celebration of the dawning of the psychedelic era, commemorating the ...
It’s only been a few months since the Hollywood fires tore through Los Angeles, leaving a trail of devastation, numerous deaths, over 10,000 homes reduced to rubble, and a once glorious film industry on its knees. The Palisades and Eaton fires, fueled by climate-driven dry winds, didn’t just burn houses; ...
Four eighty-year-old books which are still vitally relevant today. Between 1942 and 1945, four refugees from Vienna each published a ground-breaking – seminal – book.* They left their country after Austria was taken over by fascists in 1934 and by Nazi Germany in 1938. Previously they had lived in ‘Red ...
Good Friday, 18th April, 2025: I can at last unveil the Secret Non-Fiction Project. The first complete Latin-to-English translation of Giovanni Pico della Mirandola’s twelve-book Disputationes adversus astrologiam divinatricem (Disputations Against Divinatory Astrology). Amounting to some 174,000 words, total. Some context is probably in order. Giovanni Pico della Mirandola (1463-1494) ...
Te Pāti Māori are appalled by Cabinet's decision to agree to 15 recommendations to the Early Childhood Education (ECE) sector following the regulatory review by the Ministry of Regulation. We emphasise the need to prioritise tamariki Māori in Early Childhood Education, conducted by education experts- not economists. “Our mokopuna deserve ...
The Government must support Northland hapū who have resorted to rakes and buckets to try to control a devastating invasive seaweed that threatens the local economy and environment. ...
New Zealand First has today introduced a Member’s Bill that would ensure the biological definition of a woman and man are defined in law. “This is not about being anti-anyone or anti-anything. This is about ensuring we as a country focus on the facts of biology and protect the ...
After stonewalling requests for information on boot camps, the Government has now offered up a blog post right before Easter weekend rather than provide clarity on the pilot. ...
More people could be harmed if Minister for Mental Health Matt Doocey does not guarantee to protect patients and workers as the Police withdraw from supporting mental health call outs. ...
The Green Party recognises the extension of visa allowances for our Pacific whānau as a step in the right direction but continues to call for a Pacific Visa Waiver. ...
The Government yesterday released its annual child poverty statistics, and by its own admission, more tamariki across Aotearoa are now living in material hardship. ...
Today, Te Pāti Māori join the motu in celebration as the Treaty Principles Bill is voted down at its second reading. “From the beginning, this Bill was never welcome in this House,” said Te Pāti Māori Co-Leader, Rawiri Waititi. “Our response to the first reading was one of protest: protesting ...
The Green Party is proud to have voted down the Coalition Government’s Treaty Principles Bill, an archaic piece of legislation that sought to attack the nation’s founding agreement. ...
A Member’s Bill in the name of Green Party MP Julie Anne Genter which aims to stop coal mining, the Crown Minerals (Prohibition of Mining) Amendment Bill, has been pulled from Parliament’s ‘biscuit tin’ today. ...
Labour MP Kieran McAnulty’s Members Bill to make the law simpler and fairer for businesses operating on Easter, Anzac and Christmas Days has passed its first reading after a conscience vote in Parliament. ...
Nicola Willis continues to sit on her hands amid a global economic crisis, leaving the Reserve Bank to act for New Zealanders who are worried about their jobs, mortgages, and KiwiSaver. ...
The inquiry focused on vaccines and mandates; the lockdowns; and tools such as testing and tracing. The coalition government had also widened the scope of the inquiry to seek feedback on issues such as the social and economic impact of lockdowns. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will launch another push on health on Sunday, announcing a re-elected Labor government would set up a free around-the-clock 1800MEDICARE advice line and afterhours GP telehealth service. The service would ...
To sleep, perchance to dreamIn the shadowy chambers of Lord Winston,The great clock strikes thirteen.All remains untouched, covered with dust,As it has done since the 1970s,In a simple world where boys were boys,Ladies were mini-skirted and compliant ladies,And Italian law students ruled the streetsIn their wide lapel zoot suits.King Lux ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will launch another push on health on Sunday, announcing a re-elected Labor government would set up a free around-the-clock 1800MEDICARE advice line and afterhours GP telehealth service. The service would ...
Asia Pacific Report Activists for Palestine paid homage to Pope Francis in Aotearoa New Zealand today for his humility, care for marginalised in the world, and his courageous solidarity with the besieged people of Gaza at a street theatre rally just hours before his funeral in Rome. He was remembered ...
By Susana Suisuiki, RNZ Pacific presenter The doors of St Peter’s Basilica in the Vatican have now been closed and the coffin sealed, ahead of preparations for tonight’s funeral of Pope Francis. The Vatican says a quarter of a million people have paid respects to Pope Francis in the last ...
By Susana Suisuiki, RNZ Pacific presenter The doors of St Peter’s Basilica in the Vatican have now been closed and the coffin sealed, ahead of preparations for tonight’s funeral of Pope Francis. The Vatican says a quarter of a million people have paid respects to Pope Francis in the last ...
Once or twice a week, Dr Margaret Henley rolls up the door on a windowless storage locker in central Auckland, pulls her plastic chair up to a picnic table and sifts through the history of netball in New Zealand.She works alongside netball archivist and statistician Todd Miller, together trawling through ...
Corin DannThe time is 7:36am on Wednesday, April 23, and you’re listening to Morning Report, New Zealand’s voice of the educated left on good incomes. I’m joined now by acting Prime Minister Winston Peters. Good morning Mr Peters.Winston PetersIt was, until I saw you. I much prefer your brother.Corin DannLiam ...
When Professor David Krofcheck got an email congratulating him on winning the Oscar of the science world, he dismissed it as a hoax.“I thought it was a scam, I thought it was a phishing email,” recalls Krofcheck, nuclear physicist at Auckland University.“Yeah right, I’ve won the 2025 Breakthrough Prize in ...
Madeleine Chapman reflects on the week that was.I’ve been re-watching Girls lately, the HBO classic that perfectly captures millennial women in the most painful way. I highly recommend it especially if you haven’t watched it before. Every character on the show is deeply flawed and frustrating in their own ...
With the double-header long weekend comes a welcome chance to escape streaming slop, writes Alex Casey. Over Easter I texted my husband Joe a sentence that perhaps nobody in human history has ever texted: “hurry up geostorm is starting”. No punctuation, no capitalisation, not because I was trying to ...
April 27 is Moehanga Day, the anniversary of the day in 1806 when Ngāpuhi warrior Moehanga became the first Māori to visit England. This is his story. The wooden ship sailed down the River Thames, past smoke stacks and brick factories, until it reached a wharf in industrial south London. ...
Heidi Thomson on how her husband’s illness and Daniel Kalderimis’s book Zest have enhanced her understanding of George Eliot’s great novel.Sometimes a book finds you at just the right time. In early December my husband John had a stroke. At the time we were both reading George Eliot’s Middlemarch, ...
The musician, actor and star of upcoming documentary Marlon Williams: Ngā Ao E Rua – Two Worlds takes us through his life in television. Musician Marlon Williams has been on our My Life in TV wish list ever since he revealed during his My Boy tour that he wrote ‘Thinking ...
When she walked dripping into the lounge, hair wet from the shower, she took one look at Hamish and dropped her towel.He was holding her phone.—How long has it been going on for?His blue eyes blazed. She wanted to pluck them out and blow on them gently, cool them off. ...
A citizens’ assembly of 100 Porirua locals has provided the city council with more than a dozen recommendations about how to tackle climate change and make sure the region is resilient to worsening extreme weather events.Ranging from expanding access to renewable energy and incentivising the planting of native trees through ...
Comment: Democracy globally is in crisis. Around the world we are seeing the rise of nationalism and declining trust in democratic institutions. Politicians, even in Aotearoa, undermine the authority of core institutions like the media and the courts, which are critical for a functioning democracy. To live well together, in ...
Journalist Rod Oram, who died last year, would have been delighted to see the commitment to addressing climate change shown by the 23-year-old winner of a prize established in his memory.Mika Hervel, a student at Victoria University of Wellington, is today named winner of the Rod Oram Memorial Essay Prize, ...
COMMENTARY:By Nour Odeh There was faint hope that efforts to achieve a ceasefire deal in Gaza would succeed. That hope is now all but gone, offering 2.1 million tormented and starved Palestinians dismal prospects for the days and weeks ahead. Last Saturday, the Israeli Prime Minister once again affirmed ...
An ocean conservation non-profit has condemned the United States President’s latest executive order aimed at boosting the deep sea mining industry. President Donald Trump issued the “Unleashing America’s offshore critical minerals and resources” order on Thursday, directing the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to allow deep sea mining. The ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra In this election, voters are more distrustful than ever of politicians, and the political heroes of 2022 have fallen from grace, swept from favour by independent players. A Roy Morgan survey has found, for ...
By Koroi Hawkins, RNZ Pacific editor The former head of BenarNews’ Pacific bureau says a United States court ruling this week ordering the US Agency for Global Media (USAGM) to release congressionally approved funding to Radio Free Asia and its subsidiaries “makes us very happy”. However, Stefan Armbruster, who has ...
ER Report: Here is a summary of significant articles published on EveningReport.nz on April 25, 2025. Labor takes large leads in YouGov and Morgan polls as surge continuesSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne With just eight days until the May 3 federal election, and with in-person early voting well under way, Labor has taken a ...
The only published and available best-selling indie book chart in New Zealand is the top 10 sales list recorded every week at Unity Books’ stores in High St, Auckland, and Willis St, Wellington.AUCKLAND1 Butter by Asako Yuzuki (Fourth Estate, $35) Fictionalised true crime for foodies. 2 Sunrise on ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Taneshka Kruger, UP ISMC: Project Manager and Coordinator, University of Pretoria Healthcare in Africa faces a perfect storm: high rates of infectious diseases like malaria and HIV, a rise in non-communicable diseases, and dwindling foreign aid. In 2021, nearly half of ...
Australia and New Zealand join forces once more to bring you the best films and TV shows to watch this weekend. This Anzac Day, our free-to-air TV channels will screen a variety of commemorative coverage. At 11am, TVNZ1 has live coverage of the Anzac Day National Commemorative Service in Wellington. ...
Our laws are leaving many veterans who served after 1974 out in the cold. I know, because I’m one of them.This Sunday Essay was made possible thanks to the support of Creative New Zealand.First published in 2024.As I write this story, I am in constant pain. My hands ...
An MP fighting for anti-trafficking legislation says it is hard for prosecutors to take cases to court - but he is hopeful his bill will turn the tide. ...
NONFICTION1 No Words for This by Ali Mau (HarperCollins, $39.99)2 Everyday Comfort Food by Vanya Insull (Allen & Unwin, $39.99)3 Three Wee Bookshops at the End of the World by Ruth Shaw (Allen & Unwin, $39.99)
This Anzac Day marks 110 years since the Gallipoli landings by soldiers in the Australian and New Zealand Army Corps - the ANZACS. It signalled the beginning of a campaign that was to take the lives of so many of our young men - and would devastate the ...
Here's an intellectual challenge: disinformation & misinformation. Split the difference!
Here's another intellectual challenge:
I'll have a go at that one (first one's too hard). On the face of it, the reporter is telling us that misinformation got up & vacated the msm and 54% of folks strongly believed that it had done so. I recommend deciding the reporter was wrong and meant to write that 54% of folks had exited the msm consumption habit. A feast for grammarians…
Trotter believes the Roy Morgan poll ratings: https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2023/07/07/unstoppable-and-explosive/
He sees
No worries. Ain't a snowball's chance in hell the motley crew in ACT are capable of drafting a constitution let alone achieving a consensus on adopting it.
Please stop re-posting Daily Blog nonsense here. If people what to read it, they can do it for themselves. We can do without Trotter’s over-egged angstsy boomer racism.
Somewhat presupposes political initiatives advocating constitutional reform lack relevance tho. I'm tempted to agree with you but we must proceed on the basis of evidence.
First, you have a party heading north of 15% in the polls advocating it. According to the leftist, that is – I haven't noticed them doing so myself yet.
Second, this other leftist ex-PM has been doing so for quite a while:
@ sanctuary..
What is the problem with diverse points of view..?
Do you yearn for a (pro-nuke) echo chamber…?
He takes a while to get there..but trotters observation is a valid one..
Does he, or is it just a chance to over-extend a metaphor with a slather of florid hyperbole? Perhaps he is bored and longs for some sort of upheaval, and isn't too fussy about what sort. Mostly though, he just needs a good editor.
I did wonder about that. A career essayist always needs a timely angle to develop into a thesis. Dog goes for bone
Trotter really does need an editor..
He takes an age to make his point..
And he does that volcano metaphor until way past when the magma has hardened..
But I agree with the point he is making..
Namely the significance of the 7.9 for the maori party in the latest roy morgan poll..
That there is a coalescing consensus round tpm..that is going on within maori political circles..(and why wouldn't they..?..)
And one of the drivers of this is the rise of the racist far-right act party..and their vows to roll back any affirmative action..to tear up the treaty..etc..etc..maori-bashing all the way up to the election..
And for maori..voting for tpm is the most effective way of pushing back against this racist agenda..
I expect tpm to do better than this 7.9% at the actual election…
And as for the election results.. whichever way it goes we are going to have a radical government..
Either the milquetoast national party..their genitals firmly in the grip of act..tearing up the treaty etc..
Or the milquetoast labour party…their genitals firmly in the grip of tpm and the greens..
Where we will see major moves on environmental/poverty issues…
The choice for voters could not be clearer/more focused..
Those days of moaning about lab/nats being tweedle dum and tweedle see…are consigned to history..
The change-train is a'coming..
Good comment, Phillip. Perhaps you have view from a different generation to me. If so, it's helpful. Such a huge move in Maoridom would be historic.
No significance that I can see. One poll doesn't indicate a trend.
Looking at the polling over recent time, that 7+% looks somewhat like an outlier. TPM have tended been in the 3.5% to 4.5% range (way better than where they were at the start of the year).
I'll get interested if TPM get a few more high polls.
Is anyone doing a poll of polls now?
Poll of polls Weka https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2023_New_Zealand_general_election
The trend is quite apparent – Natz on a steady slide under Luxon, Labour on the way up under Chippie.
Act will gain in proportion to Natz loss, while the Greens will remain steady (though I expect them to do better on election day) and the TPM will gain +5%.
A third term Labour/Greens/TPM government, ya hoo!
That was what I linked to on wikipedia for 2023. Right up to date, and generally favouring a left government at present.
The right really doesn't have traction. Compare it to the wikipedia poll pages for 2005 (probably the closest recent analogy). Then have a look at 2008 and 2017 for what two different types of a opposition winning combo looks like.
I don't think the Luxon has quite the political pull power of a Jacinda.
Meanwhile Barry Soper reckons there will be a change of government, coz of the numpties around Hipkins (this is just a reprise of the it's only Clark or Ardern lines).
Barry Soper is pretty useless at any kind of analysis. He seems to hoick most of his reckons out of his arse after having a boozy afternoon as far I can see.
But as you point out, he doesn't have wide repository of talking points (or 'noisome dags' as I prefer to frame them) and frequently recycles them.
I tend to only notice him if he does something surprising like being (in retrospect) actually right about something. Which means I haven't noticed him much for the last 25 years. He is one of those people who just claims analytical skills rather than exhibiting it.
Incidentally this kind of crap was what I would up doing a lot of work on in my youth…..

Matt Whitehead reckons it's technically not a poll of polls. I don't really understand the difference despite him explaining it to me.
https://twitter.com/MJWhitehead/status/1635538144006385664
I assume the wiki is good enough for our purposes in terms of trend.
And I'd agree with him. However with the paucity of polls, the piss-poor sampling techniques used, and the sample sizes, no amount of massaging is going to do much to the lousy data.
Basically he is referring to the kind of data massaging that would work in the US or UK because of the number of polls and the frequency with which they are done. Even there it is fraught with actuality (ie elections) disagreeing with the elegant cross-poll analysis.
For the purposes of getting a general idea of trends (the only thing worth looking at), whoever is doing the wikipedia one has got it about right.
what do you make the GP swing around so much? Even allowing for the RM having outliers, there seems to be a lot of variation.
Statistical variation with smaller numbers plays a part. Only takes a dozen, out of the typical numbers polled, to change the Green result.
Suggests that Green voters are not evenly spread throughout the population also.
oh yeah, I hadn't considered that. So if the 1,000 or whatever people that week happened to be less urban, then less Greens? Wouldn't they be adjusting the pollees for things like rural/urban?
Of course they must have some weightings.
But that is less effective with smaller sample numbers. Those polling Green are in the tens in the normal sample size, while National and Labour are in the hundreds.
It only takes a few differences the sampled population between polls.
The scary correlation, is that voters for the Libertarian lunatics in ACT, appear to be more evenly spread
Something else to factor in… which supports the case I am making..is that maori are notoriously under-polled…
I suspect Māori, like young people, are also under represented in the voting, in both Māori and general rolls, which would cancel out the effect to an extent.
Geoffrey Miller is the Democracy Project’s geopolitical analyst and writes on current New Zealand foreign policy and related geopolitical issues.
A globe-trotting PM blithely joining Aotearoa to NATO while an election campaign gets under way in his absence is just the sort of smart move one would expect from Labour so I get why he's dreaming about it. Nothing wrong with outflanking the Nats on the right. It's a time-tested and proven strategy.
HISTORY.
The sidelining of George Kennan with the continuance of NATO and expansion after the end of the Cold War (and end of the Warsaw Pact). And the consequences of this in Georgia and Ukraine (colour revolution).
China being allowed into the WTO order without formally ending the Korean War and removing American troops or autonomy for Taiwan within China as per Hong Kong. This led to the South China Sea moves and the American response – promotion of democracy in Hong Kong (the 1997 agreement only allowed autonomy till 2047), The resulting crackdown leading to American determination to secure Taiwan's continued self-governance.
USA unilateralism in Iraq and the NATO breach of the no fly zone in Libya leading to the development of BRICS.
The Russia-China alliance leading to Shanghai Co-operation Organisation (includes central Asian states of the former USSR, Pakistan and India and now Iran) and BRI going through Pakistani Kashmir leads to India playing a dual game within the QUAD (all while a BRIC and in the SCO group).
PRESENT
NATO is seeking non European collective security partners – given the UN is compromised by the veto.
Given our historic UN multi-lateralism bi-partisanship – this is easy for Labour.
NATO is also offering to support the containment of China – with partners such as those in the QUAD.
ASIA-PACIFIC
We have a nuclear free Pacific policy – so are not in ANZUS or AUKUS (but are security partners of Oz and might join up to AUKUS 11 – technology development co-operation).
We affirm the International Law of the Sea Conventions, thus have issues with China in the South China Sea. But not in Taiwan.
For us, the issue is not so much involvement in the containment of a nation that is now our major trading partner, but diplomacy.
Outflanking National on the right, bollocks.
It’s so centrist, that National says nothing. They’ll adopt it.
Excellent analysis & I bow to your grasp of the geopolitical relevance.
Outflanking National on the right, bollocks. It’s so centrist, that National says nothing. They’ll adopt it.
Only when in govt. Makes more sense for them to differentiate during the campaign – there are still voters who don't believe they're part of the same team…
Agreed SPC
If our foreign policy is to remain grounded in preserving some kind of rules-based global order in an increasingly multipolar world, we're much better off picking the "side" (such as it is) that's actually committed to preserving said order.
It's an inevitable choice irrespective of what political party is in power here.
Unless we want to abandon multilateralism, lose whatever street cred and trust we've accumulated in our relationships abroad, and sell out to whoever gives us the shiniest baubles irrespective of the political system we'd be implicitly supporting.
That's an option too. Just an incredibly shit one.
While Russia traditionally really dislikes a rules based global order.
The Chinese have done really well out of it once they decided to (mostly) be part of it. In many ways they have been pretty assiduous about following it and are getting better at it (admittedly only if you blur your vision and ignore a few things like the PCA Law of the Sea 2016 (?) decision on South China sea).
Dennis Frank – you must have a lot of time on your hands to indulge yourself so frequently here – up early, trawling sites to find something to enable your intellect to respond to. Be nice to have a variety of commenters though.
I deliberately waited a couple of hours due to Anne's similar hope yesterday, but none of them wrote in. There seems to be a significant dearth of leftists wanting to contribute here. As a radical centrist, I notice the lack from that part of the political spectrum since there was a huge ferment of such folk during my student years half a century back. I associated with them as a kindred spirit.
It's an interesting question on the interface between sociology and political activism: why has the ebb-tide on leftism gone out so far? I don't believe left-wingers are essentially stupid – which is what their collective non-performance indicates. There's something deeper happening in society to produce this mass effect.
You are posting a bit too much Dennis.
But I gave myself a year off until recently, BG. I don't like Labour's sleep-walk. Aotearoa deserves better, and from the Greens too. Stimulating thought processes is a deliberate consciousness-raising strategy to those who deploy it – for the purpose of being helpful, on my part.
Anyone who doesn't like the consequences really ought to focus on themselves rather than me. I suspect leftists may be collectively baffled by their lack of traction. Well, the solution to that problem is to figure out why – not grizzle at anyone who tries to help them do so.
I didn't say what you were posting was a problem, just that it was a little too much. But see my post re Labour and the Greens below. All is not lost!
Yes, there's a real basis upon which to proceed, true. However the campaign is a political marketing exercise & I see no such endeavour on the left yet.
To me framing is the essence of that. Somehow they must weave an overview for the left that makes them seem a viable alternative to National/ACT.
Framing is then the nifty way of capturing the essence of that alternative – effectively enough to distill it into an impression on the minds of floating voters. Vox pops are the standard news media technique for flushing that out of the minds of the people and providing it to political marketers as feedback – so they can see if their message is percolating thro the social ecosystem.
From here on in, I'll be watching such media carefully to discern the zeitgeist. Currently we just have underwhelming by the Nat/Lab duo, with polling reflecting that. Lull before the storm??
Maybe a 600 post per day limit, works elsewhere I hear.
I prefer to give personal attention when required.
Always fun when people give me a opportunity to demonstrate what 4 decades of training on the public nets does to an inherent attribute towards being really nasty and condescending.
But Dennis doesn't seem to deserve my attention.
Having been on the receiving end of your attention once or twice some years ago, that's a relief. I have tried to attune to the ethos here since then.
I realise that being a Labour voter you'll be irritated whenever I do a critique of something they've done or are doing, but I try to give them credit when due and one such occasion occurred earlier today when the PM gave a foreign policy speech. Heard it reported on the RNZ news & thought far out!
He got it right. Not just that, the key points that the editorial staff selected from his speech for their report indicated that they got resonance with the media too. That made him come across as an authentic leader for Aotearoa.
Thought it worthwhile to acknowledge that & I'll write about it on DR. I reckon it's auspicious & could be a real boost for Labour's prospects…
What's stopping you?
I agree.
People:
should be applauded.
Instead it seems to be almost grudging/politics of envy stuff.
If people don't want to read the posts, just scroll on by or make your posts.
Reality if you want to read a good thread, with good intro by Weka and with a good mix of posters, make your way to the science curriculum thread.
Wot shanreagh said..
the easiest way to change that is to comment on the topics you want to see discussed. Anyone can nab the first comment of the day in OM. Or DR
Unless they seem to be depending on it and just trolling.
I still have the little bit of code I wrote a long time ago that would automatically add 12 hours to specific annoying early morning commenters on Open Mike.
Along with the one that refuses high speed comments with a image of a monkey grinning.
tools 😈
A blog without posts is not worth visiting!
Doesn't take much effort to scroll on by.
I assume you mean comments rather than posts, yes?
Yip if your being pedantic, there's official posts posted by the ordained ministers of the standard, then there's freelance post/comments like mr Frank's, then there's ya run of the mill comments like this😉
Ta
'Them's fighting words' Dennis Frank. Hopefully we will have a flurry of interested/interesting posters like we have had in the Science curriculum post.
I don't think Leftism is dead. Take a look at the Green Party tax and social policies. A Wealth Tax, rent controls and livable rental properties, with more to come at the election.
Labour's minimum wage and benefit rises have certainly helped the less well off; the numbers in poverty in NZ are starting to come down. I heard a guy on RNZ the other day saying that the increased minimum wage was encouraging backpackers to take jobs and work longer which is presumably true for locals too.
Under Labour there have been moves favouring public transport (light rail, cheap bus fares, cycleways, investment in rail). More than 10,000 state houses have been added (I saw 14,000 somewhere) and house prices have now fallen significantly from their ridiculous highs-a good thing that is still happening.
http://www.voxy.co.nz/politics/5/405411
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/budget-2023-house-prices-to-fall-21-per-cent-and-not-recover-to-record-highs-until-2027-treasury-says/XXZPA3D7GNBRTIK4LWPBFIKW4I/
A Labour/Green/TPM government will continue this progress. A Luxon/Seymour government will take NZ back to housing bubbles, selling off state houses, tax changes favouring the top 5%, minimum wages frozen, roads of national insignificance and public transport will get crumbs.
Yes, the Greens have some (in my view – excellent) policies that truly differentiate themselves from NAct and Labour. NAct with their rush to make things awful as quickly as possible, and Labour with glacial incremental improvement that is overwhelmed by their love of neoliberal damage.
Now to promote Green policies as much as possible before the election!
My hot take is that the traditional left is dying due to its lack of boldness, desire to provide an actual point of difference from the status quo, and ability to keep it's shit together for longer than an electoral cycle or two.
It makes for good, don't scare the horses, middle-of-the-road, bread and butter politics. But on the flipside makes real progress agonisingly slow and electorally risky.
The question is how to shift the Overton Window back to the left.
It's a matter of time.
A generation without home ownership would have to direct their attention to a regime without CGT (35/36 have one) or estate tax (24/36 have one) and say why not a wealth tax. For a nation without a CGT or estate tax the only alternative is the Greens wealth tax (historic failure to apply a CGT or estate tax catch up).
NACT know this and have a plan.
It's to replace their white boomer vote with an immigrant vote against Maori privilege (an update on their post Rogernmics attack on Maori on welfare).
Thus a government program opposed to UNDRIP implementation, any building on whanau ora and threatening to end WT and the HRC and a re-write of the Treaty – while adopting the US welfare and penal policy model to control "Maori". It would also not surprise if they were to criminalise public space protest.
A bleak prospect indeed SPC.
I agree exactly SPC. While the noise appears in the white corner, the points are being scored quietly with migrants from South East Asia and China.
Homophobic organisation which promotes the chemical castration of same sex attracted and neurodiverse children looses its attempt to close down a charity which supports Lesbian, Gay and Bi-sexual people.
"A transgender rights group has lost its case to have a gay rights organisation stripped of its charitable status in what is believed to be the first case of its kind in the UK.
Mermaids, which supports transgender, non-binary and gender diverse children and their families, had appealed against the decision of the Charity Commission to grant LGB Alliance charitable status in 2021.
It is thought to be the first time in the UK that a charity has sought to have the charitable status of another removed".
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/lgb-alliance-charity-commission-london-jk-rowling-lgbt-b2370444.html
And others call them "transphobic" for being formed
https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/tv/news/matt-lucas-lgb-alliance-trans-b1929993.html.
But at least they did not try and deny another group charity status over the disagreement.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/rosie-duffield-lia-thomas-lbc-yvette-cooper-anneliese-dodds-b2045520.html
It is not just a "simple" disagreement. Gender ideology denies even the very existence of "same sex attraction". We are all supposed to be "homogenderal". We say that is homophobic as hell, and that is before we get into what they are telling children about sex and sexuality.
Linguistic imperialism (narrative control) is what it is. Possibly better put as "homosexualphobic", as not every lesbian, gay or bi person wants to be assimilated into the masculine or feminine or non-binary gender identity empire.
It possibly speaks to one difference within the community – LGB and LGB+. The other being lesbian women solidarity with safe women's spaces, which is a wider society issue.
It would be best if the adults sorted out co-existence in respectful ways without involving the children … there is a difference between educating children about society around them (larger than their own family) without placing them within that world while they are developing.
Adults are a bit complicated (sex, gender, sexuality etc).
https://studylib.net/doc/9063804/transgender-article
I've never heard that term before, but it's spot on. I'd add "linguistic chauvanism" as well. The redefining of accepted terms with fierce enforcement, and shrieks of bigotry and Nazism to anyone who doesn't agree or even understand.
And the other side of the story. Trans youth charity Mermaids was supported by a coalition of LGBTQ+ groups in the challenge to LGB Alliance's charity status. They argued the group "shouldn’t be recognised as a charity because of it ‘exclusively focuses’ on anti-trans campaigning and not on the promotion of lesbian, gay and bisexual rights.” The LGB Alliance HQ is at 55 Tufton St, that nest of UK neo-lib think tanks.
"The tribunal…found Mermaids [due to being a charity itself] does not have legal standing to challenge the Charity Commission’s decision to recognise the LGB Alliance. Though it may be painted as such, the ruling is not a win or a vindication for the LGB Alliance. The ‘gender-critical’ group escaped judgement on a technicality."
"In its ruling, the tribunal stated that its two-person panel was split on the issue of whether the LGB Alliance is rightfully a charity. It declined to make a hypothetical conclusion on the issue. The tribunal also noted that the Charity Commission was seen to have concerns regarding the LGB Alliance going “beyond the boundaries of civilised debate”, and said these concerns “were well-founded”.
You need to be careful with these so called LGBT++++++ groups. Like Stonewall – many of them are now reliant on the T+++++++ for their funding.
In 2001, Stonewall set up the Diversity Champions Programme to act as a stamp of approval that indicated a company properly supported gay employees.
Then things changed; and Stonewall's focus moved away from a genuine desire to help gay people to enforcing its own theories about gender identity."
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-11564363/I-helped-Stonewall-today-plead-business-public-body-reconsider.html?fbclid=IwAR0BVBsDuGloVgNrcbsDbIr6kXn5wK7t0qfJolqsWL5sW_yiJVipO941Zy0
The daily mail..?
That hotbed of reactionary agitprop..?
That total rag.. perhaps even a benchmark for reactionary rags..?
You cite this…?
Heh…!
Good luck with that.
Visubversa…The Trots?
what's the technicality?
the T+ activists have run quite the propaganda campaign on this. Pink News can keep that running as long as it likes, but where is the evidence?
Meanwhile, in Feb 2021 Dave Hewitt wrote this fact check on one of the early accusations about LGBA. This highlights a number of common themes in such accusations, and makes a connection with Pink News who also took part in the LGBA hate trans propaganda.
https://www.voidifremoved.co.uk/p/fact-checking-oz-katerji
LGBA's website addressing some of the myths about them,
https://lgballiance.org.uk/facts/
And their purpose,
https://lgballiance.org.uk/policies/
The Charity Commission's original decision April 2021,
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/lgb-alliance/lgb-alliance-full-decision
The tribunal ruling.
https://www.judiciary.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Mermaids-v-Charity-Commission-judgment-060723.pdf
Hector has fallen. 10 years after the founding of the Taxpayer Union, DPF has retired, wary of the fight against
But the light has not gone
There are good people, who do not agree with Jordan and his allies on the Board.
PS Chasing 3 and 6 year olds around the house would get tiring.
Link?
Just an email this morning.
This on their site.
https://www.taxpayers.org.nz/co_founder_retiring
The insanity of the Australian Liberal Party exposed over Robodebt.
NZ could/should have the same type of Royal Commission over MSD.
Bennett abused her power as a minister, using the media to attack individuals who complained about the impact of the brutality MSD reforms had created.
We also need a serious look at the p-house debacle. A Royal Commission into this would help as well.
40 minute video follows, the first 6 minutes covers all the key points.