Open mike 10/05/2024

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1. Bearded Git 1

   10 May 2024 at 7:55 am

   Simeon Brown was on RNZ's Morning Report today. He spent most of the time blaming the last government for today’s potential power outage and supporting fossil fuel development. The words "climate change" and "battery storage” never passed his lips of course.

   https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/morningreport/audio/2018937783/energy-minister-simeon-brown-on-power-usage-warning

   California now has battery capacity of 10 gw and will add another 6.8gw THIS YEAR…in total 16.8 gw (see article below)…..that is roughly 39 Clyde dams. All of this can be used to supplement or at times totally take over from other generation, meaning that outages, like the potential one today in NZ, will be a thing of the past.

   This article spells it out:

   "The ever-growing battery energy storage fleet is becoming vitally important for California to maintain a clean and reliable power grid – storing energy from renewable sources like solar during the day to use when solar drops off in the evening hours.

   Only a couple of weeks ago, for the first time ever, battery energy storage became the largest source of supply to power the grid as its discharge went above 6 GW. The landmark event saw battery storage overtake gas, nuclear, hydro and renewables as the biggest source of supply for a period of about two hours in the evening peak."

   https://www.pv-magazine.com/2024/05/01/california-crosses-10-gw-battery-storage-threshold/#:~:text=At%2010%2C379%20MW%2C%20California%20has,100%25%20clean%20electricity%20by%202045.

   This is the direction NZ should be taking. Labour and the Greens should be pushing investment in battery storage as a strategic priority. Because of fast moving improvements to battery storage it is now a far better bet than Lake Onslow.
   • PsyclingLeft.Always 1.1

     10 May 2024 at 8:30 am

     As the cold bites….expect more shitspeak from Shane (coal fast tracker ) Jones.

     As far as people caring…..there is a sizeable group who just..dont.

     https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/453903/one-in-five-kiwis-don-t-believe-in-climate-change-survey

     Depending on the Poll (or which way the wind is blowing ! ) the numbers differ…but IMO it sadly wasnt enough of a vote issue to keep NActFirst out of, ironically, …."damage control". As they are now completely in control of the damage.

     I have been, and still am, planting Native Trees. And of course, riding my Bike and living Sustainably. : )

     And…as far as I am able, follow a lot of Sustainable Tech and new innovations. thanks for link !
     • PsyclingLeft.Always 1.1.1

       10 May 2024 at 9:22 am

       “Part of the pressure on the country's power supply is due to the lack of wind for the wind farms.”

       https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/516453/the-big-chill-arrives-temperatures-fall-below-freezing

       https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/516437/wintry-weather-the-current-cold-spell-isn-t-going-anywhere

       And of course…the denier/cooker go to : Its actually global cooling

       (never mind the devastating droughts and intense storms ! )

       How to pushback against the NActFirst "fast track 3" ? When people are cold..and facing power cuts??
       • SPC 1.1.1.1

         10 May 2024 at 9:23 am

         They also had some power plants out for pre winter maintenance – because it was so warm May last year … the unpredictability factor.
         • PsyclingLeft.Always 1.1.1.1.1

           10 May 2024 at 9:29 am

           Exactly. Really the only predictable is how the fickle can be persuaded to ignore the fact that our Earth is warming..to a dangerous level.

           Digging coal out of our Carbon Bank Native Forests ?…insane.
   • SPC 1.2

     10 May 2024 at 8:37 am

     Sort of – Onslow is cover for dry hydro years – whereas battery is storage for those calm days (cover for wind farms).

     An emerging problem is building more and more data centres in Auckland – pressure on the existing distribution network and also extra power where there is little local generation.

     It also adds to population pressure on existing infrastructure (water and transport and housing).

     Why not direct the location of these to places (and jobs) where there is power (SI)?

     Or provincial NI centres without the power distribution or other infrastructure problems. New Plymouth for example, esp when the offshore wind farms get going.
     • Bearded Git 1.2.1

       10 May 2024 at 8:52 am

       SPC-I think batteries are rapidly becoming so much more efficient and getting so much cheaper that, from what I have read (did you read the article above in full?) batteries will easily cope with dry years. This is especially true given developments in electrical technology in terms of connectivity to and development of the grid.

       But it is complicated. For instance all of the EV batteries should be able to be plugged in and used as part of grid storage capacity. Australia is introducing phased charging of EV's legislation so that the grid isn't hit with everybody charging their EV's when they get home at 7pm.

       And why does the Queenstown Lakes District Council (and many other councils) not make solar panels with associated battery storage mandatory on every new building? We have a lot of sun down here and solar is so cheap now.

       I see the article you have just posted below supports much of the above.
       • SPC 1.2.1.1

         10 May 2024 at 9:13 am

         Sure, solar power from buildings can also be stored via battery. And as you note some areas have more sun and less wind and can have solar farms (SI – NE NI) Coast.

         With Onslow, it is cover for a dry hydro year – though it might not be needed if there was an end to the smelter and an alternative use* of that power was flexible enough to not operate in dry years (say * some hydrogen and some into battery storage).
         • Bearded Git 1.2.1.1.1

           10 May 2024 at 9:39 am

           Hydrogen is not really an option for the grid at the moment from what I have read-it takes too much energy to produce and so-called "Green Hydrogen" is a myth. (It may be viable for trains, trucks, buses)

           I agree totally about closing down the smelter-that would give us another 5-10 years. I think the grid has, or soon will be, connected to the power from Manapouri so that it can be sent north.

           I maintain that in 10 years battery storage capacity is very likely to make the ($15.7 billion) Lake Onslow project redundant before it is completed. That would be a catastrophe.
           • Cricklewood 1.2.1.1.1.1

             10 May 2024 at 12:11 pm

             Completely agree, if we get battery storage sorted especially in Auckland and have charging capacity either wind, solar (or both) we'll save a bunch in transmission loss and take strain off the infrastructure.
           • Graeme 1.2.1.1.1.2

             10 May 2024 at 10:22 pm

             Pumped storage like Onslow is a proven concept, just like hydro. Grid scale batter, particularly at multi year time scales is a more recent technology.

             Grid scale battery may be proven in time, it may be superseded by a better technology quite quickly. A bit like CNG or LPG powered vehicles.
             • Bearded Git …

               11 May 2024 at 8:08 am

               In the article below you can see that a 680MW battery storage facility in Menifee, California, can be built for US$1 billion…lets say NZ$1.7 billion. But once the stored power is used up presumably it has to be recharged the next day or days.Battery storage power is available at the flick of a switch.

               My understanding is that Lake Onslow will provide 1000MW of instant power for NZ$15.7 billion, including a new power station. This power will be available immediately day after day as long as it is needed and throughout a several month period where the lake levels are low.

               https://patch.com/california/murrieta/massive-battery-storage-facility-nears-completion-menifee

               It may well be, and I HAVE NO EXPERT KNOWLEDGE HERE, that due to recharging constraints, you need to construct say 5000MW of grid battery storage to give the same cover to the grid as Lake Onslow. That would cost around NZ$12.5 billion using the Menifee costs. But that is at today's prices. Battery storage is getting rapidly cheaper, and such storage can be built close to where the power is most needed.

               It seems to me that battery storage is very likely to be a cheaper source of backup power than Lake Onslow, if not now then in 5-10 years, and getting cheaper still after that. And, as I said above, closing the aluminium plant would give us those 5-10 years.

               California is already installing grid battery storage big-time, which tends to support the above conclusion.
       • Ad 1.2.1.2

         10 May 2024 at 7:57 pm

         Wanaka's Solar Zero Ltd does distributed area + battery pretty well already.
         • Graeme 1.2.1.2.1

           10 May 2024 at 10:30 pm

           Would be nice if there was a half decent 'virtual power station' that you could subscribe your own solar and battery to. Rather than Solar Zero using your roof for a slight reduction in your power bill, so they can sell all the energy when the price is high leaving you with nothing.
   • SPC 1.3

     10 May 2024 at 8:50 am

     Addressing concerns around power shortages heading into the winter, Andrew noted it was a "transitional issue" as the system moved to more renewable resources, such as wind.

     "It's colder, and there's less wind. We need more fast-start capacity on the system – think batteries, that can come in quickly and fill sharp peaks. We don't have enough of that at the moment."

     More plants are being built and large-scale batteries are coming into the system, she added.

     "This is a transitional issue that a lot of countries are grappling with as we move to more renewable system."

     https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2024/05/possible-power-cuts-transpower-ceo-eases-concerns-of-outages-amid-cold-snap-says-situation-is-comfortable.html
   • Mike the Lefty 1.4

     10 May 2024 at 10:28 am

     "Storage " implies looking ahead to the future.

     National can't see further than the next election.
     • Bearded Git 1.4.1

       10 May 2024 at 1:10 pm

       
2. dv 2

   10 May 2024 at 8:45 am

   GOOD TO SEE THE NATZ HAVE A PLAN

   LINK BELOW.

   LINK BULLSHIT
3. Dolomedes III 3

   10 May 2024 at 8:48 am

   Chris Trotter is regularly denounced as a "turncoat" by the tribal left, and mocked by the tribal right. But here he nails New Zealand's plight better than most:

   https://democracyproject.substack.com/p/more-harm-than-good?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1885783&post_id=144480379&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=1vvcih&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email

   If like me you don't subscribe to the Democracy Project, you won't be able to read the whole article, but you can view more than enough to get his message. Nearly 40 years ago Lange and Douglas ushered in the ideology that has reined ever since in this country: progressive neoliberalism.

   A more recent villain of our history (John Key) is painted masterfully: "reconstituting a responsible conservatism simply wasn’t in him, and so he smiled and waved for nine years, while everything that mattered in New Zealand rotted away beneath his feet."

   As for the Ardern government's "progressive" policies – sorry, building houses and infrastructure is too hard – have some new pronouns, language policing, and "decolonization" instead.
   • SPC 3.1

     10 May 2024 at 9:03 am

     Fact Check

     Most houses built since the 1970's.

     13,000 public homes, the most of any Government since the 1950s.

     PGF.

     Plan for Water Infrastructure. Planning for better rail freight rail ferry interface. Looking at coastal shipping as part of disaster response.

     Doubling the number of homes with solar panels.

     100,000 more heating and insulation installations through Warmer Kiwi Homes.

     EV charging hubs every 150 – 200 kilometres on main highways.

     600 to 1000 EV chargers at community facilities in smaller rural communities.
     • Dolomedes III 3.1.1

       10 May 2024 at 9:36 am

       Can you back up those numbers with solid independent evidence? (i.e. not something lifted from the Labour Party website).

       As for this: "Plan for Water Infrastructure. Planning for better rail freight rail ferry interface."

       Anyone can "plan" and "look at". But are the plans realistic? And what about results? And 3/5 Waters was never really about infrastructure – it was a powerplay by the Maaori caucus. If LINO's motivation was to effect a sustainable improvement in NZ's water infrastructure, why did they not reach out across the aisle to develop a bipartisan project that would survive a change of government? Seymour is often wrong, but his take on 3/5 Waters wasn't far off the mark: "a treaty settlement disguised as an infrastructure project".
       • SPC 3.1.1.1

         10 May 2024 at 9:42 am

         Can you back up those numbers with solid independent evidence? (i.e. not something lifted from the Labour Party website).

         When you disprove any one of them, I might bother. Go ahead. National never challenged any of it during the campaign.
         • Dolomedes III 3.1.1.1.1

           10 May 2024 at 12:36 pm

           If you're not going to substantiate your claims, you're no "fact checker".
           • SPC 3.1.1.1.1.1

             10 May 2024 at 12:46 pm

             Oh stop lying.

             They are the claims of the Labour Government* on their Labour Party site.

             None have been disputed by you, or anyone else.

             Guess why … *

             https://www.eeca.govt.nz/assets/EECA-Resources/Warmer-Kiwi-Homes-RetroFit-Map.pdf
             • Drowsy M. Kram …

               10 May 2024 at 1:55 pm

               Oh stop lying.

               Asking Dolom III to stop lying? You're on a hiding to nothing there

               https://www.psychologytoday.com/nz/blog/your-online-secrets/201409/internet-trolls-are-narcissists-psychopaths-and-sadists

               https://www.betterhelp.com/advice/how-to/overcoming-the-compulsion-how-to-stop-lying/
               • SPC …

                 10 May 2024 at 2:06 pm

                 Maybe like looking under a rock for something and there is nothing there. Just an empty sea of nothing. We were warned I suppose.
             • Traveller …

               10 May 2024 at 2:49 pm

               I thought it was a requirement here that if you make a claim it was up to you to support that claim, not up to others to disprove it. The Labour Party website is not a valid source unless it too provides evidence. The same applies to all other political parties IMHO.

               To your specific claims.

               You claim that one achievement of the last government was "Plan for Water Infrastructure". That plan failed. It was sold dishonestly, widely rejected by local government entities, and was a significant factor in the ultimate demise of the government. It's establishment costs alone were heading for a blowout of some $1bn (Three Waters cost blowout expected to hit $1 billion in ‘mega-bureaucracy’ – NZ Herald). How on earth anyone can continue to claim that as an achievement is staggering.

               Meanwhile, I did 'fact check' some of your other claims:

               "EV charging hubs every 150 – 200 kilometres on main highways."

               Wrong. That was not an achievement, it was a 'goal'. (NZ Charging Network (unison.co.nz)).

               "600 to 1000 EV chargers at community facilities in smaller rural communities."

               Likewise (Budget 2023 expands charging network | EVs & Beyond (evsandbeyond.co.nz)). That was a goal.

               "Doubling the number of homes with solar panels."

               Even the Labour party's own website says this hasn't been achieved. "Labour will double the number of houses with rooftop solar in New Zealand…" Release: Doubling rooftop solar to reduce bills & emissions – NZ Labour Party.

               So the three claims I fact checked are announcements, not achievements.
               • SPC …

                 10 May 2024 at 3:12 pm

                 I was fact checking the claim in the link, that Labour achieved nothing on infrastructure, as it was too hard.

                 Housing (total builds and extra income related public homes realised) and the heating and insulation home improvements as well and all still on-going.

                 What they have in mind for the Cook Strait is an unknown.

                 And they were focused on other infrastructure – water and energy.

                 They made water infrastructure an issue – National had to develop a counter. So there is only a failure to convince voters that their plan was better.

                 They had plans to improve energy infrastructure – EV charging to the provinces and along highways and doubling solar panel take up on homes. And even National could achieve them, if they try.

                 What they will do, as per the Cook Strait is an unknown and as for disaster recovery (losing regional roads etc) without coastal shipping or any reserve fund is an unknown.
                 • Traveller …

                   10 May 2024 at 4:03 pm

                   I was fact checking the claim in the link, that Labour achieved nothing on infrastructure, as it was too hard.

                   Understood, but the reality is that the Labour government were cast in a light of underachievement for a good reason. There were too many announcements, plans and promises, and simply not enough delivery.
                   • SPC …

                     10 May 2024 at 4:10 pm

                     Sure, the pandemic and the lack of a third term are their excuses.

                     But they did face up to the hard issues (UNDRIP etc left by National included). And major health system reform ….fbow.
                 • SPC …

                   10 May 2024 at 4:07 pm

                   What they have in mind for the Cook Strait is an unknown.
           • mac1 3.1.1.1.1.2

             10 May 2024 at 1:17 pm

             https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/plan-3000-more-public-homes-2025-–-regions-set-benefitPublic Housing

             • In October 2017 there were 66,234 public homes. As of July 2023, there are now 79,510, an increase of 13,276, including over 11,000 brand new builds.

             Beehive release from the government of the time.

             https://www.msd.govt.nz/documents/about-msd-and-our-work/work-programmes/social-housing/housing-quarterly-report-dec2017.pdf

             This states 63,482 in 2017.

             https://www.statista.com/statistics/1445220/new-zealand-public-housing-stock-by-region/

             This states some 80,121 public houses in 2023 by region.

             SPC’s rounded figures are maybe a little light?

             Now, Dolomedes 111, I can do this work, so can you. I did the first check. You do one.
     • Phillip ure 3.1.2

       10 May 2024 at 7:51 pm

       Fact-check:

       Didn't ardern promise to build 100,000 new state houses…?
       • SPC 3.1.2.1

         11 May 2024 at 1:44 am

         KiwiBuild was a building programme for privately owned homes, not state house building.
         • Phillip ure 3.1.2.1.1

           11 May 2024 at 8:09 am

           I stand corrected…

           (Maybe I was confused by the 100,000 homeless …who need housing..)
           • SPC 3.1.2.1.1.1

             11 May 2024 at 10:29 am

             If not yet, possibly by 2026.
             • Phillip ure …

               11 May 2024 at 11:46 am

               I am pretty sure I heard a while back…prob on rnz ..from someone who should know..that counting those living in garages/caravans/w.h.y…on couches…in cars..etc ..

               ..that the number who need housing..not just those sleeping rough…is about 100,000..

               ..
   • Obtrectator 3.2

     10 May 2024 at 10:18 am

     Nearly 40 years ago Lange and Douglas ushered in the ideology that has reined ever since in this country: progressive neoliberalism.

     I wouldn't load an equal share of the responsibility on to David Lange, although I can't totally absolve him either. Douglas and his associates were the ideological zealots who drove the neoliberal agenda; Lange simply lacked the force of character to rein them in.
     • Phillip ure 3.2.1

       11 May 2024 at 11:56 am

       Was he not seduced by the ideology ..?

       I had a bit to do with him when he was a lawyer…he was my go to for junkie friends who got busted…

       And I have the utmost respect for him for his work back then…

       ..and had quite often seen the consummate skills he brought to the courtroom…

       (Heh..!…magistrates seemed to enjoy seeing him…I saw them smiling…leaning forward in anticipation of his oratory..and he never failed to deliver…)..

       ..and I also respected his strength of character..which manifested in his uncaring if a client was poor/broke…

       All of this is why I am puzzled by his moving to the dark side ..and why I feel he would have had to believe in what he was doing..(however flawed that belief may be)…

       I find it hard to see that it was a manifestation of a weakness in him ..

       Is there anyone here who can shed any light on that ..?
   • Mike the Lefty 3.3

     10 May 2024 at 10:34 am

     I read it, agree it's right on the button.

     Despite his later political leanings, Chris Trotter has written some very good and analytic articles over the years.
   • Louis 3.4

     10 May 2024 at 3:13 pm

     "221,000 net additional homes under Labour in 6 years. More than 1 in 10 homes in the country. Biggest building boom in NZ history. Labour's government build programme is still going ($ run out in 2025 unless Bishop acts). 22,000 homes built, including 553 in March alone."

     https://twitter.com/ClintVSmith/status/1785081890636272103
4. tWig 4

   10 May 2024 at 9:06 am

   Stuff discussing senior poverty, the increase in rents, rates and other bill, and the role that shared accomodation might play. Stuff on going flatting in old age
   • SPC 4.1

     10 May 2024 at 10:20 am

     For mine golf courses are ideal for little villages for older folk – and should be a Kainga Ora development. Half for such villages and half as a local park as the area around intensifies.

     The houses they leave free up first home sections for others – or allow development (such as a stand alone group home).

     The villages can include such group homes – for those a little older and less self sufficient. Maybe half the village homes owned and other half Kainga Ora placements – small and factory built being the most efficient.

     Kainga Ora should also look at buying up property suitable for renovation for those more frail for shared living and mutual support when sick (and easier care to home with limited spare nurse/carers).

     More generally easier granny flat (including mobile home placements) consents will help (assist some to pay off their mortgages).

     Some can look at what women of the past did (widows/divorced) pairing up to rent or co-own a 2 bedroom flat or townhouse or apartment.

     Or those who own a home can do the golden girls thing and bring in tenants – each with some useful skill (gardening handywoman, cook, fashion guru, driver, team fitness leader, new skills coach, wingwoman, nurse).

     Couples can do the same with boarders – their rent covers the rates, insurance and maintenance costs.
     • Shanreagh 4.1.1

       10 May 2024 at 9:38 pm

       There is the Abbeyfield concept that I think is great

       https://www.eldernet.co.nz/Facilities/Retirement_Villages_Rental/Abbeyfield_Dunedin/Service/DisplayService/FaStID/12148

       https://www.abbeyfield.co.nz/house/abbeyfield-dunedin/

       https://www.abbeyfield.co.nz/

       The concept is like flatting for seniors. I like it better than the retirement village concept.

       In the olden days Councils used to have neat little one/two bedroomed pensioner units. They had as little or as much garden and were in groups of two.

       Flatting does work. I have flatted all my life so am used to having others around but it could be a bit of a shock to suddenly 'have' to do this.

       My mother moved into a retirement village and hated it. She had been used to living in largeish old houses with big rooms. She disliked the 'tiny' units with kitchen/dining/living all run together. She moved later into the biggest home she had ever lived in and stayed till she died 13 years later at age 94.

       Going into the retirement units it is quite telling to see items of furniture such as tall sideboards or bookcases being used to delineate the room to make a separate dining area or lounge. I wonder do they ever ask anyone before launching inot these all-in-ones?

       Perhaps we could look at the sliding screens ideas like the Japanese have to enclose or expand rooms easily.

       I like some of your ideas SPC and your post reminded me of others like the oldies buying togther not necessarily women but older widowed siblings sometimes did this
   • Jimmy 4.2

     10 May 2024 at 2:10 pm

     It is sad to read about people getting to that age and relying on the national superannuation to get by. That is why I like Kiwi Saver as forces people to save for retirement. When I was in my early teens, I always thought by the time I retire, there would be no government super so have always saved for retirement. And when I retire, hopefully the govt super will just be a top up to make retirement more enjoyable. Unfortunately a friend from school has enjoyed the drink too much along with the TAB and is now approaching retirement having very little in savings. It often comes down to the choices you make during you working life. He decided to spend everything and really enjoy life earlier whereas I will probably have a more enjoyable retirement. However we do joke about if I drop dead once I retire, then I should have been more like him!
5. SPC 5

   10 May 2024 at 9:25 am

   A land of shepherds looking at stars.

   https://www.1news.co.nz/2024/05/09/astronomer-hopes-new-zealand-can-achieve-dark-sky-nationhood/
   • alwyn 5.1

     10 May 2024 at 10:34 am

     If we have another couple of terms of a Labour Government, particularly if the Green Party were involved we would certainly qualify. With the collapse of our electricity system the whole country would be in the dark whenever the wind stopped blowing.

     Luckily it doesn't seem to be likely in the foreseeable future.
     • SPC 5.1.1

       10 May 2024 at 10:42 am

       It requires battery storage to prevent lack of wind being a problem – Simeon Brown does not believe in such things – fortunately the grown ups in the system do.
       • alwyn 5.1.1.1

         10 May 2024 at 11:48 am

         Simeon Brown certainly doesn't seem to be in favour of the pumped hydro, Lake Onslow, scheme. Neither is anyone else that I know.

         However I am not aware of him having commented on any proposal for backing up short term gaps with batteries. Do you have a link to him talking about such a proposal and can you provide a link?
         • SPC 5.1.1.1.1

           10 May 2024 at 12:28 pm

           His idea of the solution to the problem was more capacity, the issue was/is storage. If not Onslow what? Extra capacity (not used most of the year) is not the solution.

           Harbord told Morning Report MEUG had two concerns around the wider issue of electricity supply and demand: One was that there was not a strong argument for spending millions of dollars on a new plant if it sat unused apart from times of big demand.

           The other was the mix of electricity generation; as there was more reliance on renewables, such as solar and wind, situations such as Friday's could arise more often, he said.

           "A bit more thermal peaking would be really helpful, because the thermal sits there, you can stockpile gas and coal and turn it on almost in an instant

           It is the old fashioned answer.

           and the problem we have with solar and wind, you can't stockpile it and save it for when you need it."

           Er, has he not heard of battery storage?

           Transpower has said the problem with supply was due to 700MW of generation being offline due to maintenance.

           This happens each year – old thermal generators being set up to cope with the winter demand, if it coincides with late autumn calm and a southerly … .

           So it is rather obvious we need battery storage for peak load cover at this time of year.

           https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/516477/cold-snap-power-cuts-avoided-as-consumers-make-significant-cuts-to-usage.
           • alwyn 5.1.1.1.1.1

             10 May 2024 at 2:06 pm

             I have just been reading a report produced by The Global Warming Policy Foundation on "Net Zero for New Zealand"

             You can read it here.

             https://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2022/07/Kelly-NZ-Net-Zero.pdf

             It is an examination of what would actually be required to get to net zero by 2050. It makes very grim reading.

             One thing he does mention is the practicality of using battery storage. It is on page 5 of the report which is page 9 of the PDF I have linked to. It says

             "It remains a hard fact that fossil fuels are much more effective at storing energy than any known non-nuclear alternatives (Table 1).8 Consider the argument that the back-up electricity supply for emergency wards in hospitals could be provided by batteries by 2025 or soon thereafter. The 100-MW, 128-MWh battery installed by Elon Musk near Adelaide in 2018 at a cost of $90 million would power the emergency wards of Wellington Regional Hospital for 24 hours on a single 80% to 20% discharge.9 If a storm took out the transmission lines in Wellington for a week, we would need seven such batteries. The back up today is provided by diesel generators, which run if there is fuel, and cost of order $0.5 million."

             That is $630 million just to keep the emergency wards going for a week. Can we really afford such batteries, and do we really want to?

             How much would the batteries cost to get peak load cover for the entire country, even for just a few hours?

             It is a very interesting document by the way. He does point out some pages on from my quote that public acceptance of net zero by the Public is very unlikely if the full costs were known by the people who would have to sacrifice.

             "It is clear that the public has no idea of the scale of the changes that would be required to transition to a net-zero economy in 30 years’ time." and then "No poll has tested their willingness to meet the level of costs implied by the analysis above, well over $250,000 per household." and "If one assumes that the EU, North America, Australasia, and Japan are to underwrite the rest of the world’s activities, then the costs to their citizens will rise by a factor of five. This would take the cost to each New Zealand household to more than $1 million. In practical terms, this takes us into fantasy land."

             In summary what he offers is a reasoned view that mitigation is impractical and that adaption is the only way to go.
             • SPC …

               10 May 2024 at 2:19 pm

               If adaption does not prevent the loss of the Atlantic current it is the losing hand.

               Lower cost batteries – more energy stored. If development is on the same course as lower cost yet more data and faster processing chips (the Chinese car batteries etc).

               Then there is nuclear – hopefully fusion (a cable from Oz to here would be nice).
               • Belladonna …

                 10 May 2024 at 3:37 pm

                 Then there is nuclear – hopefully fusion (a cable from Oz to here would be nice).

                 Pretty close to zero chance of nuclear fusion electricity generation – in any operational way within the timeframe to 2050.

                 And, how is it more moral to choose to use nuclear power via a cable from Oz, than local construction? It's just like outsourcing the risks/costs of battery manufacture so we can have 'green' energy.

                 I agree that nuclear should be on the table. But it's very difficult to find Greenies prepared to agree…..
                 • SPC …

                   10 May 2024 at 3:55 pm

                   Oz has the distance from population – less risk of impact to their human habitat. And the technology scale to develop and maintain such plant (heard of AUKUS?).

                   Fusion is without the waste problem of existing nuclear power generation.

                   If the risk to the Atlantic current at 3 degrees and current nuclear is the option, while fusion remains in development, it is back as a mitigation option (diplomatic franglais).
                 • alwyn …

                   10 May 2024 at 5:22 pm

                   "But it's very difficult to find Greenies prepared to agree….."

                   Give them the choice. Nuclear or Gas.

                   After all that is the choice we made, in favour of gas, back in about 1970. New Zealand was in the process of getting ready to put in a nuclear power station when they found the Maui gas field off Taranaki. They then cancelled the nuclear option.

                   If we hadn't found Maui we would have a nuclear station up north of Auckland on the Kaipara Harbour.
                   • Drowsy M. Kram …

                     11 May 2024 at 12:07 pm

                     Imho, nuclear power options for little ol' NZ now are a distraction.

                     https://ecotricity.co.nz/why-nuclear-energy-isnt-an-option

                     Dutton wants a ‘mature debate’ about nuclear power. By the time we’ve had one, new plants will be too late to replace coal [28 Feb 2024]
                     A more accurate phrasing of the question would be:

                     There is a proposal to keep coal-fired power stations operating until the development of small modular reactors which might, in the future, supply zero-emissions energy. Do you approve or disapprove of this proposal?

                     It seems unlikely such a proposal would gain majority support.

                     After all that is the choice we made…

                     Indeed 'we' did – probably a good thing too. I don't recall pressure from "Greenies" being a major factor at the time – broader public opinion may not have been favourable to a nuclear power option.

                     In 1966 the Minister of Labour was quoted as saying that the first nuclear power station would be north of Auckland, probably in Kaipara, then a second south of Auckland, which could serve both Auckland and Hamilton. The third station would probably be in central Auckland “from developments overseas we believe that the construction of [nuclear power] stations in the centre of cities within 15 years or so will be acceptable.”

                     https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Plan_for_a_nuclear_power_plant_on_Kaipara_Harbour_(32399602397).jpg

                     https://www.geonet.org.nz/about/volcano/aucklandvolcanicfield

                     https://beatfreeks.com/hindsight-is-a-wonderful-thing/

                     Hindsight is a wonderful thing but foresight is better, especially when it comes to saving life, or some pain!
                     – William Blake

                     The ‘flickering’ of Earth systems is warning us: act now, or see our already degraded paradise lost [31 Oct 2023]
                     In the 2030s, 40s or 50s, when the climate crisis has manifested itself in global catastrophe, some wretched politician will be running round in circles whimpering: “Nobody told us it would be this bad.”

                     https://thestandard.org.nz/greenpeace-luxons-threat-to-roll-back-climate-action-at-odds-with-emissions-targets/
                   • Drowsy M. Kram …

                     11 May 2024 at 12:22 pm

                     Oops – this link for the Kaipara nuclear power reactor should work.

                     https://www.flickr.com/photos/archivesnz/32399602397/
                 • KJT …

                   10 May 2024 at 5:23 pm

                   Very hard to justify nuclear fission, when even the most optimistic projections make it 2 to 4 times more expensive per MWh than wind or solar.

                   https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN1W909I/#:~:text=It%20said%20that%20reactor%20construction%20times%20can%20be,wind%20power%20comes%20in%20at%20%2429%E2%80%93%2456%20per%20MWh..
                   • Belladonna …

                     11 May 2024 at 9:10 am

                     But it works when wind and/or solar don't.
                     Just like gas, oil, and coal. If you have to pick one of the four as a backup power source – which do you go for?
             • KJT …

               10 May 2024 at 5:11 pm

               This is why we need storage options such as lake Onslow.

               Which the troglodyte vandals have now canned.

               I wonder what the bribe from the oil companies was?

               Betcha it is a lot less than Trump is asking? Trump promised to scrap climate laws if US oil bosses donated $1bn – report | Donald Trump | The Guardian
               • alwyn …

                 10 May 2024 at 5:33 pm

                 Lake Onslow is a totally crazy idea.

                 Pumped hydro is a way of using using up, and storing, the electrical energy that you have no immediate use for but which you don't really have the option of not generating.

                 It is a great way to store the power from a nuclear power station for example.

                 It would be nuts to rum hydro power stations, letting the water drop down hill, to generate power that you use to pump other water pump up hill just so that you can use it later. You lose a great deal of potential energy in the process.

                 Leave it in the reservoir above the original station and leave the generators idle. The only possible gain would be if every reservoir was absolutely full and the only option is to spill water right down the river.

                 Even then you would have to have every hydro lake in the country full to overflowing to make it sensible.
                 • KJT …

                   10 May 2024 at 5:38 pm

                   It smooths out demand and supply from wind and solar generation in future. Not hydro.

                   And a lot cheaper long term than using batteries.

                   Not a crazy idea at all. Except in the minds of those who want us to rely on paying billions to oil companies, every year in perpetuety.

                   An act of environmental and economic stupidity. Even Muldoon could see that constantly bleeding foreign exchange to oil companies overseas, was crazy.

                   And. Why would you want a much more expensive and dangerous option. Nuclear power.
                   • alwyn …

                     10 May 2024 at 6:11 pm

                     Short term smoothing of supply from wind and solar was not what Lake Onslow was intended to perform.

                     It is supposedly going to supply water to a new hydro station in the event that we have a very long drought and there are low flows for years in the hydro rivers such that their supply lakes are emptied.

                     If you just want to do short term smoothing of the variable wind and solar power them you can simply use the surplus to pump water from the outlet of the nearest hydro station back into the lake above the dam.
             • Drowsy M. Kram …

               10 May 2024 at 6:48 pm

               In summary what he offers is a reasoned view that mitigation is impractical and that adaption is the only way to go.

               An appealing view, naturally – no 'impractical' sacrifice/mitigation now, and let the 'adaptation chips' fall where they may.

               Versus going hard on sacrifice/mitigation now, to give future generations a better chance of adapting to the legacy of our overshoot civilisation: +2˚C, +3˚C or whatever – plus ecosystem collapse.

               Is it a tough choice? Nah, not really – am I bovvered?

               Mitigation and Adaptation [14 Dec 2023]
               Mitigation and adaptation are two complementary ways people can respond to climate change—one of the most complex challenges the world faces today. Mitigation is action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and limit the amount of warming our planet will experience. Adaptation is action to help people adjust to the current and future effects of climate change.

               These two prongs of climate action work together to protect people from the harms of climate change: one to make future climate change as mild and manageable as possible, and the other to deal with the climate change we fail to prevent.

               Greens welcome cross-party approach to climate adaptation [10 May 2024]
               “Just over a year ago our North Island was hammered by deadly and devastating climate-change charged weather events. Many are still grappling with the clean-up, insurance issues and infrastructure gaps. These are the consequences of a warming planet and we must do everything we can to both mitigate climate changing emissions and adapt. Good policy does both,” says Green Party co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick.

               
         • Drowsy M. Kram 5.1.1.1.2

           10 May 2024 at 12:39 pm

           Do you have a link to him talking about such a proposal and can you provide a link?

           Well no… not really.

           Hon Dr Megan Woods: Is the detailed business case funded by the previous Government on a multi-technology or portfolio approach of flexible geothermal, demand response, grid-scale batteries, and hydrogen biomass solutions to find an alternative to gas to address the dry-year problem still being progressed by his Government?

           Hon SIMEON BROWN: Well, no…
           [9 May 2024]

           Grid-scale batteries seem a good option for Aotearoa NZ at a pinch, and the technology is well-established elsewhere; see BG's comment @1, and @1.2.1.

           https://reneweconomy.com.au/worlds-biggest-battery-maker-unveils-higher-density-nil-degradation-longer-lasting-battery-packs-for-grid/ [15 Apr 2024]
           • SPC 5.1.1.1.2.1

             10 May 2024 at 12:56 pm

             That answer in parliament exposed Brown as unaware that the issue was not extra generation, but spare capacity (whether the occasional dry year or the calm autumn periods before the winter thermal became available).

             He has yet to absorb what Woods was talking about.
     • Bearded Git 5.1.2

       10 May 2024 at 11:17 am

       Read my posts above Alwyn…there is a green solution. It’s just that Simeon Brown and friends aren’t interested because they don’t care about saving the planet.
     • joe90 5.1.3

       10 May 2024 at 12:27 pm

       If we have another couple of terms of a Labour Government,

       Be nice.

       /

       23 January 2024

       […]

       A report commissioned by the Electricity Authority Te Mana Hiko shows the amount of new renewable electricity generation that has been committed has almost doubled in 18 months.

       The Generation Investment Survey released today shows that there is now, based on annual output once built, 5,000 Gigawatt hours (GWh) of new generation committed. This is up from 2,600 GWh from the previous survey in July 2022.

       https://www.ea.govt.nz/news/press-release/uplift-in-new-renewable-electricity-generation-projects/

       Committed generation has lifted significantly compared to the last survey, with its annual output capability (once built) rising from 2,600 GWh to nearly
       5,000 GWh. This is slightly more than the amount of generation required to displace the uneconomic thermal generation on the system. The annual
       development rate (based on projects that have been completed or committed) for the period 2021-2025 is over three times the annual development
       rate achieved during 2011-2020.

       https://www.ea.govt.nz/documents/4414/Generation_Investment_Survey_-_2023_update.pdf
6. weka 6

   10 May 2024 at 10:40 am

   Power cuts or Powerdown?

   Powercuts in a wealthy country like New Zealand don’t make us third world. It’s bog standard neoliberalism which has both impeded upkeep of our infrastructure and blocked meaningful climate transition. Third world is when you can’t afford to fix, maintain and futureproof society. Neoliberalism is when you do that by choice.

   https://thestandard.org.nz/power-cuts-or-powerdown/
   • Descendant Of Smith 6.1

     10 May 2024 at 12:06 pm

     Consumers are already paying interest on shareholder dividends. Maybe the shareholders could pay some of it back to invest in aging infrastructure instead. After all it is their company.

     “From 2014 to 2021 these firms have collectively paid out $3.7 billion more in dividends to their shareholders than they have earned in profits – an average excess dividend of $459 million a year,” said FIRST Union Researcher and Policy Analyst Edward Miller.

     https://union.org.nz/generating-scarcity/
7. Traveller 7

   10 May 2024 at 2:30 pm

   May Curia Poll:

   Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll May 2024 – Taxpayers' Union

   Nat 37.3% +0.2%

   Lab 30.0% +4.3%

   Gre 10.2% -4.4%

   Act 9.4% +2.2%

   NZF 5.5% -0.8%

   TMP 3.1% -1.5%

   So:

   Coalition Parties 52.2%

   Opposition Parties 43.3%

   Minor Parties 4.5%

   "The combined projected seats for the Centre-Right of 66 is up 2 from last month while the Centre-Left unchanged on 56 seats".

   Note: Undecided = 4.2%.

   The two Chris's both had a bounce of favourability.

   Chris Luxon's net favorability was up 15 points to +8%. I suspect this had something to do with his handling of Melissa Lee and Penny Simmonds.

   Chris Hipkins net favorability was up 5 points to -1%.

   (The margin of error is +/- 3.1%, at the 95% confidence level).
   • bwaghorn 7.1

     10 May 2024 at 5:45 pm

     Is that the right wing stalking horse ,tax payers union?
     • Anne 7.1.1

       10 May 2024 at 7:32 pm

       Yes. Fortuitous isn't it.

       Attack a Green MP despite the fact she apologised for her action three times, then dredge up an argument she had with someone with an axe to grind over cycleways, then rush out the door and conduct a poll.

       That's how they roll…
       • Traveller 7.1.1.1

         10 May 2024 at 8:50 pm

         No-one 'rushed out the door' to do a poll. This is a regular monthly poll for Curia.

         And in addition to the behaviour inside Parliament, the Green MP now has a total of three additional complaints against her.
         • adam 7.1.1.1.1

           11 May 2024 at 2:50 am

           Three more Tory scum being snowflakes – Oh the humanity.
           • Traveller 7.1.1.1.1.1

             11 May 2024 at 9:27 am

             ‘Tory scum’? Thats so 1970’s.
             • Drowsy M. Kram …

               11 May 2024 at 1:41 pm

               School motto that scummed it all up [5 Feb 2024]
               Scum semper surgit (Scum always rises)

               DPP appeals to supreme court in case of protesters who called MP ‘Tory scum’ [31 Jan 2024]
               The Crown Prosecution Service declined to say how much the case had cost the taxpayer.
               …
               In clearing the two protesters, Judge Goldspring, who is also described as the chief magistrate, had noted that “the use of Tory scum was to highlight the policies” of Duncan Smith and that this was relevant to the “reasonableness of the conduct” in relation to the rights of freedom of expression and assembly.
               • Traveller …

                 11 May 2024 at 4:52 pm

                 Maybe name callers need new lines Drowsy😉
                 • Drowsy M. Kram …

                   11 May 2024 at 9:51 pm

                   Maybe name callers need new lines Drowsy

                   Why? "Tory scum" still has the power to provoke, if recent reactions here and in the UK are anything to go by – an oldie, sure, but a goodie.

                   Tbh, I'm surprised some Tories, e.g. Duncan Smith, are so thin-skinned.

                   Unexpectedly good views of the aurora in Palmy tonight – best in over 33 years, and it’s putting on a good show even further north.

                   https://www.1news.co.nz/2024/05/11/photos-aurorae-stun-skywatchers-around-the-country/

                   https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2024/05/kiwis-capture-spectacular-aurora-lighting-up-new-zealand-s-skies.html

                   https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/516583/solar-storm-stunning-skies-as-the-aurora-light-up-aotearoa
                   • Traveller …

                     11 May 2024 at 10:47 pm

                     Yeah I be some amazing pics of the Aurora on social media. Not so much as a glimpse up here in Auckland unfortunately😕
                   • Traveller []

                     11 May 2024 at 10:54 pm

                     I take it back!! Daughter in west Auckland just sent through amazing pics from hers. Stunning!
     • Traveller 7.1.2

       10 May 2024 at 8:53 pm

       No more than Talbot Mills is a left-wing stalking horse. This is just one in a line of polls that will show the changing fortunes of political parties over time.
     • Anne 7.1.3

       10 May 2024 at 9:28 pm

       T took the bait.
8. Dolomedes III 8

   10 May 2024 at 5:10 pm

   Good news for freedom of expression. The DIA has scrapped the previous government's 'Safer Online Services and Media Platforms' proposal that would have effectively imposed "hate speech" laws on the internet. I wrote one of the many submissions against this proposal.

   https://community.scoop.co.nz/2024/05/another-victory-for-free-speech-dia-abandons-proposals-for-online-censorship/

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