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6:00 am, June 10th, 2020 - 63 comments
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It's great to see that Donald Trump is finally getting all the massive public crowds he's been seeking for so long.
The Tinyfingers Twittertwat is also inspiring awesome political advertising buys in the DC market just to reach him personally. Not because it has any chance of influencing any political outcome; DC is the strongest Dem electorate in the country.
His campaign is buying ads so he sees them on his tv and is mollified that his campaign is actually doing something for him, and the likes of the Lincoln Project are placing ads to drive bunkerboy ever further out of his dysfunctional facsimile of a mind.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/6/9/1951722/-Trump-campaign-tries-to-calm-Trump-s-fear-and-rage-by-wasting-400-000#read-more
Trump is high functioning psychopath. He ticks all the boxes.
What this means is that he is of course a dangerously unsuitable person to be the President of the USA. It doesn't mean he is always wrong, always evil and always to be condemned. In many ways I see the left grossly over-reaching in their reflexive hatred of him. But it does mean we constantly reduce complex issues to idiotic sound bites.
It's seems the pressures of the past few months are going to cause Trump to implode, his re-election that seemed certain in January, is now very much less likely, due not to any Democrat brilliance, but to two random events that have exploded out of control. Whether this all works out well remains to be seen.
But what few tribal left wingers want to do, is ask themselves why so many people pulled the lever for Trump, in at least some knowledge of his manifest unsuitability for the job. And why so many Americans, and by extension much of the democratic world, despairs of being offered little but a choice of two slightly different flavours of unpalatable. It is of course easy and exciting to say "the system is broken" and hand out demolition hammers to it in order to finish it off, but absent the effort to construct what must effectively replace it … at the end all you have is a crew of wreckers left in charge of smoking ruins.
Why pull the levers? MONEY !
" But what few tribal left wingers want to do, is ask themselves why so many people pulled the lever for Trump, in at least some knowledge of his manifest unsuitability for the job. And why so many Americans, and by extension much of the democratic world, despairs of being offered little but a choice of two slightly different flavours of unpalatable. "
I think there are people asking this question, but as you seem to indicate they are drowned out by the sheer volume of easy to get soundbites, and reactive responses to his actions. (Many of which are atrociously venal, inhumane and destructive.)
There is a deeper problem to solve than making it to the next election and defeating Trump.
… much of the democratic world, despairs of being offered little but a choice of two slightly different flavours of unpalatable.
Hotelling's Law and its application to politics really needs to get more airtime. Two party politics is just a minor variation on why two ice cream carts on the beach are always parked next to each other, or two petrol stations in a town are almost always right next door. Apparently game theory has an explanation why there cannot exist viable solutions with more than two options.
https://www.ft.com/content/1188eefe-dd0a-11e4-975c-00144feab7de
In the US, voter turnout is further complicated by the way it really really is a painful hugely time-wasting process to go out and vote. Furthermore, a large measure of voter apathy does not come from voter perception of lack of differentiation between the two choices on offer, it's simple ignorance or indifference to the impact politics has on their lives.
Efforts to improve the situation are much better directed towards electoral reform such as ranked choice voting for electorates where there can only be one winner (just been adopted in Maine), or other options such as amalgamating multiple electorates into a single multi-member electorate. Here in NZ the adoption of MMP really means the only legitimate topic the whiners have is the ridiculous 5% threshold.
What is clearly not a good answer is simple-minded whining about the state of politics as it is.
Nor is advocating withdrawing from the system by not voting in protest (nobody pays the slightest attention whatsoever to those who choose wilful irrelevance). Or voting for a miniscule fringe option those has zero chance of success (that too is choosing wilful irrelevance).
Nor is apologia for those who knowingly choose the deplorable option in hopes of seeing harm come to others.
Nor is denying that there do in fact exist real differences between the two choices on offer and ignoring the real differences in outcome that result from election of one or the other.
Particularly stupid is the response by extremists of undermining the option that is in fact closest to their position, for whatever reason excites the irrationality rattling in their cranial cavities.
Yup. That last sentence nails it. One thing I'm certain of, is I am not alone in believing I don't have a political home anymore.
That application of Hotelling law makes sense also from an evolutionary perspective, that because humans naturally have temperaments that sit on a spectrum from conservative to progressive, the two dominant players must both evolve to attract as close as possible to 50% of the vote by default. Which in the long run ensures mediocrity and mendacity.
Honestly I'm increasingly convinced that while political parties have served a useful purpose, their downsides, the polarisation and tribalism is becoming more costly than the benefits. Re-imagining our political structures, with a view to building tighter linkages between local, nation and global concerns is where my thoughts have been heading for some time now.
Cheers. That was a very welcome comment Andre.
plain old misogny was one of the biggest reasons for people voting for trump. america had just voted (twice) for a black man ,and now the same party had put up a woman.! a step to far for many americans. added to that was his appeal as being NOT a politician. many millions of americans felt betrayed by washington, (they have been) and bought trumps line about draining the swamp. many,if not most of those same voters will now be doubly disallusioned. you can pontificate all day, but they are the two main reasons for trumps election.
.
Since the early 1970s, overwhelming majorities of Americans have told Pollsters they would be happy to vote for a Woman Presidential Candidate. Over the past decade, this has ranged between 92-96% in the Gallup Poll, for instance.
Even way back during the supposedly “ultra-conservative” decade of 1950s 'domesticity', a slight majority of voters were prepared to do so.
In contrast, only a minority in the 50s were prepared to entertain the concept of voting for a Black Presidential candidate (and, until relatively recently, these numbers always trailed well behind the Woman candidate figures).
Perhaps, as an alternative explanation. it was the fact that Hillary couldn't read the Zeitgeist if she fell over it. Her close alignment with an increasingly despised US establishment, her paid Goldman Sachs speeches & murky web of business connections leaving erstwhile Democrats doubting the sincerity of her rhetoric around reform. All reinforced by her tendency to alienate voters the more they get to know her. Few trusted her & many were put off by her arrogance and hubris.
I think most of the reasons people voted for the orange one were tactical rather than any big reason.
HRC went in with 20 years of repug lies on her back. She didn't have a brilliant campaign – it was solid, but no sparks. Would have won against Romney, not a demagogue. And then there was the Comey bullshit a week out which turned out to have been because of fuckboy Weiner rather than anything related to Clinton's email server, but it resonated with the previous slanders.
But HRC also had no idea how to deal with the buffoon in debates because he was such an atypical candidate, and the repugs identified and targeted swing states much better than the dems.
Dolt45 dominated a stage of over a dozen bland characters because he was the only bully.That gave him momentum. His demagoguery played well to crowds compared to a run of the mill HRC, his team targeted states better than the dems did, and their social media game was highly effective (and so was putins). And his visuals and sheer gall got the MSM ratings, so they gave him more publicity.
Best explanation I've seen.
"But it does mean we constantly reduce complex issues to idiotic sound bites." – excellent observation RL; fits Trump to a tee.
And the wall is finished, least the one surrounding the white house is.
So, the SIS kept active files not only on Keith Locke, but also on Richard Northey. As an MP Richard Northey (one of the most dedicated and diligent and quietly effective local left activist politicians I’ve seen) had an oversight role of the SIS while in Parliament as Chair of the Justice select committee.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/the-service/418609/sis-spied-on-labour-mp-richard-northey
I think it's time we ripped open the SIS filing cabinets.
What is white privilege and class bias in action? The Herald running a story where the opinions of white men who run decile ten secondary schools get to dominate the narrative.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12338500
There is probably a story here about the emergency delivery of this stuff and issues related to it. But quoting some toff like decile-10 Rangitoto College principal Patrick Gale saying "…The cost of what they are doing is just enormous and I'm concerned by the wastage…," grates. His concern money might be being wasted on a scheme parimarily aimed at the poor is truly, deeply middle class and honestly, a tear sprung to my eye. It is just a pity he doesn't seem to feel the need to burst into print to discuss the anomolies created by the enormous inbuilt privileges his school has on occasions other than concern at this.
I think the point of his comment was that the wastage lay in the fact that this equipment was going to a school which didn't need it, rather than reaching schools which did.
It seems incredible to me that some Principal's decry an over-supply of modems. Boo Hoo. Well organised Principals should send a surplus on to more needy kids. Simon Collins works hard to explore the negatives of a system arranged at short notice to help 70,000 kids in need.
Agree
National Party scouring its extensive networks to find negative stories (however lame and ridiculous) that get fed to the Herald.
More revealingly, the guy seems to know so little about the world that he doesn't realise that when you have to rush into a big emergency, the duration of which is unknown with zero advance notice and (quite possibly) poor quality information – all sorts of irritating mistakes are going to happen at the margins. You fix them up and try to be better prepared next time.
Remember when Tory headmasters used to bang on about 'excellence' ('iksullince' in Kiwi) – a sort of disembodied general superiority that they were inculcating in their students by wearing a tie to work and other forms of privilege-signalling? Tiresome bunch. Probably we need to look at breaking up big, powerful schools.
The principals interviewed are the leading advocates and beneficiaries of the whole user-pays commodified education system.
They just don't like (poor) people getting free stuff.
How the ignorant or those with set agendas bend a story to suit their ends perhaps reading the article in full may help
there are other examples of principals decrying the lack of coordination and that their students in need had missed out
“At the other end of the income scale, many students who need computers and access to internet are still waiting for them more than three weeks after all students returned to classes.”
With thanks to the excellent Richard Harman's Politik website, a neat little observation with a very important diplomatic outcome for New Zealand's security positioning between China and our Five Eyes Allies:
"Australian Defence Minister, Linda Reynolds, sees Five Eyes as a bridge to ANZUS. Speaking last year to the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), she said Australia’s relationship with the United States mattered a great deal. “Today this relationship is not just about our mutual support obligations, enshrined in the ANZUS Treaty,” she said. “Rather, it is about ensuring the alliance is more focused on, and responsive to, shared challenges in the Indo-Pacific. “As I discussed with key allies at the Shangri-La Dialogue, it is now about co-ordinating the implementation of our respective Indo-Pacific strategies. “And it is about determining where we can have a better combined effect, particularly with our five eyes partners, where we need to develop complementarities, and where we must build self-reliance. “These will be important messages both I and the Minister for Foreign Affairs will be reinforcing not long from now at the next Australia‑United States Ministerial Consultations. “They will help guide how we focus lines of interoperability and where we direct effort to ensure that the alliance’s whole remains greater than the sum of its parts – in terms of the intelligence that guides us, the capability we operate, and the technology that advantages us.”
The executive director of ASPI, Peter Jennings, told “The Australian” that Five Eyes was gaining stronger relevance amid the strategic tensions that had emerged during the pandemic but that the economic crisis was now a paramount security issue. He said Five Eyes had been pointing in this direction. “Now, there is an understanding that we have to address the security implications of the economic relationships in a way we haven’t had to since World War II. “I think, increasingly, that what Five Eyes will do … it will have to evolve into those areas to create a shared approach on how democracies deal with those things. “I think the other point of Five Eyes is that it does bring like-minded democracies together against an authoritarian challenge. Principally, when it was set up after World War II, it was dealing with the Soviets (but) most conversations within Five Eyes now are about China,” he said.
It is the potential for China to see this Five Eyes move as a hostile one aimed at them that poses challenges for New Zealand. New Zealand last week delicately side-stepped being seen to join a Five Eyes anti-China statement opposing China’s imposition of a National Security Law on Hong Kong and instead issued its own.
The two statements were similar but not the same; the New Zealand one repeated some but not all of the language of the Five Eyes statement. It refrained from directly criticising China and omitted a line from the Five Eyes statement which said that:
“allowing the people of Hong Kong to enjoy the rights and freedoms they were promised can be the only way back from the tensions and unrest that the territory has seen over the last year.” Rather than saying that was the only way, the New Zealand statement left a door open for China to implement a National Security Law by saying: “It is important that any national security law respects these fundamental freedoms and has the support of the people of Hong Kong.”
The next day, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Zhao Lijian, excluded New Zealand from his condemnation of the Five Eyes statement. “The unwarranted comments and accusations made by the relevant countries constitute a flagrant interference in Hong Kong affairs and China’s internal affairs,” he said. “China deplores and firmly opposes that and has made stern representations with the relevant countries.”
Continue reading at https://www.politik.co.nz/2020/06/10/fancy-footwork-needed-with-five-eyes/?ct=t%28POLITIKToday_07_10_2016_10_6_2016_COPY_05%29&mc_cid=6732d3da14&mc_eid=2879a67368 | Politik
Thanks for this Ad, a useful morning read. In my view both Australia and New Zealand are making strategic mistakes here:
Australia will soon find that while it's unlikely the USA will freeze them out altogether, they will nonetheless slide well down their list of priorities. The next US President and administration will be even more hawkish on trade, and even less likely to commit military resources to security outside of NAFTA. The era of US led globalisation is over.
By the same token New Zealand is making a symmetrically opposite mistake in thinking that China will inevitably rise to fill the US vacuum. Of course the CCP have every intention of aggressively doing so, but it's not at all clear they can. I've written to their numerous structural weaknesses, all of which have arrived at a perfect storm right now.
And the idea that NZ, even in alliance with Australia can in any meaningful way be "independent" is not entirely ludicrous, after all our vast oceans ensure some measure of physical security, but we have other avenues of vulnerability that make such a position tenuous at best.
The only decent option both Australia and NZ have is a 'pivot to SE Asia', our immediate neighbours. All of whom are facing their own crisis induced by the same trade order collapse. They are just as motivated to find new arrangements as we would be, in particular NZ and Australia are the best option (along with maybe Argentina) to provide the temperate climate agricultural component of such a network.
Between Japan in the north and Aoteoroa in the south, there is a natural alliance of peoples awaiting it's turn in the tide of human affairs.
During WWII Japan desired a Naval Base in New Zealand to 'split' the Pacific and isolate Australia from the US … that strategic objective is now perhaps a CCP wish?
Third Island Chain. There isn't a lot of good references to it, but it seems a real CCP strategy.
RL, in the interest of balance it's worth noting (again) that the "Third Island Chain", taking in Hawaii and terminating in NZ, is a US concept and (containment) strategy. Calling it a "CCP strategy" is fearmongering, IMHO.
There is no evidence that NZ is part of a ‘CCP Third Island Chain‘. Try harder!
It seems however the CCP and PLAN have long quietly held the strategic concept of "Island Chains". It's entirely rational and logical that they might.
The First and Second are described in some detail, while the Third is indeed a lot more ambiguous. Possibly because the CCP would quite like it to include Hawaii … and it's premature to be overtly trumpeting that to the Americans.
But we can safely deduce a Third Chain is intended in the Pacific, because the Fourth and Fifth are located off in the Indian Ocean. However vague it might be at present, if any real world version of it came into being, it would inevitably impinge on Australian and NZ interests.
“…that they might.” "Possibly because the CCP would quite like it to include Hawaii…"
Anything's possible, but such qualifications undermine the credibility of your fearmongering, IMHO.
"But we can safely deduce a Third Chain is intended in the Pacific…"
What we both know is that The Third [Pacific] Island Chain was envisioned by US strategists for the containment of Russia and China. What you are apparently imagining is that The Third Island Chain has been repurposed by the CCP for power projection into the Pacific, but you offer no evidence to support you imaginings.
By all means continue to paint the CCP as an aggressive bogeyman bent on a NZ takeover (such fearmongering has worked before, and might work again!), but for goodness sake when will you realise that continuing to insist ‘The Third Island Chain’ is part of a CCP expansionist strategy/plot is nonsense.
Nevertheless, I encourage you to continue in the hope that you will eventually craft a more realistic strategy for your CCP villain – then you might be able to whip up some real fear in NZ.
I wonder if the SIS is looking into the influence of the CCP in the National Party
Doubt it – We've never seen a RW politician spied on have we?. Time to defund the SIS, send in a small trusted group from across the political spectrum to gather up the institutional knowledge and then start a new group with better rules, institutional oversight and respect for across the spectrum peaceful views.
RL
I remember the shock of hearing Jim Bolger say "NZ is an Asian country"
.I thought whaat?
So what happened ?
Then I found this 2015 piece by Chris Trotter. Say what you like , he always has a thought provoking take on things
I think he's changed his tune a little, or maybe he enjoys being the devil's advocate
https://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/opinion/70168276/opinion-china-has-expectations-of-new-zealand
Isn't the thing about China that they don't require you to tow a political line as a quid pro quo for trade?
And is it toe or tow or both?
It's my understanding that the original version of that idiom was 'toe the line'. But language is a living thing, and many people have morphed it into the 'towing a rope' version. Both work, although they have different connotations I think.
Helen Clark's FTA deal with China was the one thing that govt did that I truly believed was a mistake. Asia yes as CT's article presages, but the CCP no. We have not been careful enough to be clear on the difference. The Taiwanese could educate us on this.
Toe – from the Royal Navy I saw when I looked it up – standing with toes against a line on the deck for inspection. I always thought it was a sport expression, but seemingly not!
Thanks Jan and RL
Goldsmith says the govt should end the wage subsidy after businesses want it to continue.
His reasoning is the govt should concentrate on growing the economy.
But his unresearched homespun anti govt rhetoric means destroying more of the economy before trying to rebuild stick to your knit witting Paul.
But but but haven't we been told repeatedly that private enterprise creates jobs and needs a "no rules" environment to do so? So why is Nact now blaming the government for not doing the private enterprise job?
Deputy Leader of National Party annoys National supporters:
Kaye criticises Goldsmith, gets told to zip it, sweetie
I blame Kate Sheppard and the PC brigade of 1892.
National are polling, they asked for my wife by name, answered negative to questions, especially to: "would you like to receive emails on you phone from Todd Muller" sic
Why emails on your phone? Emails go to any device set up for emails, maybe they just want the email address, and mobile number, they have the landline (actually VOIP).
Rest of his natural if it's shown to be a revenge killing.
https://twitter.com/CBSEveningNews/status/1270485898585690112
November election fuckey dry run.
https://twitter.com/brent_peabody/status/1270379173383733249
Georgia debacle shows we’re heading toward an election disaster in November
By
Paul Waldman and
Greg Sargent
June 9, 2020 at 9:01 p.m. UTC
Tuesday was primary day in Georgia, and things went about as well as you might have expected:
Over the course of the day, state and local officials blamed each other; at least part of the problem stemmed from the fact that the state was using new technology, in which voters make their selections on a touch-screen and then the machine prints out a paper ballot with their choices on it.
http://archive.li/2ezYE (wapo)
That is the correct way to implement the new world-wide technological hegemony; it's logical, cause people to have learned helplessness by ensuring that everything they could do for themselves in a simple action has to be done through using a machine.
I see a Herald headline 'Mike Hosking slams Ministry of Education for 'wastage' as his child makes free modem shortlist.'
He doesn't know why his kid should be identified on a list as one needing help.
Here is the news: Michael, Kate, your child is at a huge disadvantage. It threaten his whole life. There are two main problems. I'll give you a guess what they are.
It does sound like a bit of a cluster tbf.
Yeah, it's clearly an outrage, being able to say it's okay I don't need a modem.
Barrel bottom properly scraped. Lol
I take it you didn't actually read the article
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12338660
It is a bit of a hash of a job
Of course I read it, and wondered whatever did he do first, reach for his clutching pearls or rattle his jewellery is fake outrage. I guessed a little bit of both at the same time.
The concern was Not who received these, BUT those who were/are in need that have missed out. Better to be caught out with some not in need receiving these than those in need missing out. Pity the article was framed around one of Mikes moments. 😱 and lost a little impact ?
If decile-1 Sir Edmund Hillary Collegiate is just under 400 outstanding and decile-2 Aorere College is 370, and those students in other schools, what of them? Hope the Ministry has a plan for these students.
"The concern was Not who received these, BUT those who were/are in need that have missed out. Better to be caught out with some not in need receiving these than those in need missing out. Pity the article was framed around one of Mikes moments"
Totally agree.
Still think you may not have actually read it. Allan
"Allan" D'oh lol
You're not in the naughty boy punishing business now. At ease private :smirk:
Sure, modems should have been sent to all who needed them, but mistakes happen, and during a deadly pandemic, through a lock down and general social upheaval, if that's the worst thing you can support Hoskins on, then scrape away at that barrel.
Sorry Allan. Can you point out where I have supported Hosking please?
What I said was they made a cluster of the program.
Keep your straw men to yourself.
Why is it that the first world-transforming protest after Covid has hit is a movement which has nothing to do with us, has eclipsed the 2018-9 gender equality movement and the 2015-9 climate movement, and has overshadowed every other movement?
Because the video was so very graphic and confronting. It played out old fears in a visceral drama. It united all of us that something very wrong had happened here.
But maybe if the news had been showing in full drawn out detail the slow, gasping deaths of just some of the many thousands who have died of COVID 19 on high rotation, there would be fewer people objecting to lockdowns.
Maybe the USA would not be on track for another spike in infections and avoidable deaths within 3 – 5 weeks.
And as Stalin said "the death of one man is a tragedy, the death of millions a mere statistic".
I get the feeling we've been had.
"…we've been had." – and not only US, also 114,151 (and counting) ‘Americans’ (yes, they’re disproportionately 'other'). But wait, look over here…
The color of coronavirus: COVID-19 deaths by race and ethnicity in the U.S.
“While we have an incomplete picture of the toll of COVID-19, the existing data reveals deep inequities by race, most dramatically for Black Americans.”
https://www.apmresearchlab.org/covid/deaths-by-race [update due 10 June]
“Death rate of black Americans is nearly 2.5-times that of white Americans”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/coronavirus-deaths-us-race-black-white-asian-latino-racism-a9544401.html
Because it is probably more fashionable to get a selfie attending a BLM rally which means zilche to our country than doing one for the little kid in Flaxmere who finally got released from Starship after months and nearly dying and his family not talking on who beat the shit of the poor wee chap?
when are the cameras going on the fishing boats or have labour and nz first been paid off
Kia Ora
The Am Show.
New Zealand is in A better place than most other countries.
It was sad when the 60 million raised for the Australian Bush fires didn't get to the people who needed it the most.
Ka kite Ano
Kia Ora
Newshub.
Its better to teach a person to fish than it is to give putea to them.
Its good that the back bone of Aotearoa is small businesses.
Cool that our government has invested more money into Manuka hospitals.
That's is great Outrageous fortune's and the West Side a good franchise that has been duplicated around the world.
Ka kite Ano
Kia Ora
Te Ao Maori Marama.
I agree social media will have a big part to play in the election.
That's a good Wero.
It is a great Wikitoria.
Its great to see Kiwi rail getting more support.
Ka kite Ano
Kia Ora
The Am Show.
A lot of people will be happy in Aotearoa with the sport resuming this weekend.
That's the way promoting Adventure tourism in Aotearoa.
That's cool people helping free A Whale from rope waste being dump in the Moana.
Ka kite Himi
Ka kite Ano.
Kia Ora.
That will be good the Americas sailer will be able to come into Aotearoa.
So funny A cyber attack is causing alcohol supply to be slowed down.
Ka kite Ano.
Kia Ora
Te Ao Marama.
At ta were are the captions.
Eco Maori does not back all Maori News being run by Maori TV. Maori needs A broad range of news not stories controlled by one entity. The more channels that screen Maori stories and views the bigger the audience.
I can see a lot of the students of the Kohanga and Kura Kaupapa and Kapa shining bright.
Ka kite Ano