All the talk about laws and regulations is all very well. But if the agencies that are tasked with ensuring compliance aren't funded and resourced, or worse, captured, then it all counts for shit. If a government just spent a term on making sure everything already on the books was actually being enforced, that would probably make more actual progress than a ton of inspirational ideas …
If only we had that kind of scrutiny put onto our society.
Sure, we rank really high in lack of corruption.
But we are run by a handful of oligopolies, monopsonies and state monopolies. For some reason with two main supermarket chains we have massively expensive food compared to Australia. Same for petrol. Same for electricity. Same for phone and internet. Near-monopolies for primary and secondary education. Don't get me started about environemental regulation, or air and land transport regulation, or local government, or water pricing. Many other fields: mess and gradual decline, and corrosion to New Zealanders wealth, property, and happiness.
But without exacting and strong anti-competitive capacity, we have no one that brings the kind of fear that the ACCC does when it cracks the whip.
We argue endlessly about changing laws.
But if the agencies that are tasked with ensuring compliance aren't funded and resourced – and respected – well ……
But a lot of the laws and regulations that the wealthy and high-income put great effort into avoiding and evading in other jurisdictions aren't even on the books here. So no need to avoid and evade, just reap the benefits of fleecing easy targets.
Ain't that the bloody truthiness. Shame is that in NZ, it seems to have taken a while for the law and regulation makers to realise that some of the enforcers had been "captured" quite a while ago.
Well, watching Bryce Edwards talking to Duncan Garner just now, I'm thinking this donations saga could sink NZF. They were even talking about an early election.
Voters seem not to have liked King Shane, and NZF coming in at 3.5% in the latest poll puts them in vulnerable territory. If the SFO prosecutes, they may end up in the margin of error come the next poll.
Bryce reminded us that it is history repeating itself – NZF had a similar controversy way back, and the NZF foundation was established as internal reform from that. So it's a situation created by lawyers, for lawyers. Brian Henry's reputation is on the line…
Well I haven't checked that one – I was just going on the standard margin of error (+/- 3%). Given that social reality is created by mass perception, the popular perception that Seymour is likely to get one or two more ACT MPs into parliament has no basis in statistics but is influential nonetheless.
Same type of thinking applies to NZF, despite the confident assertion of pundits that history will repeat itself via Winston barnstorming it over the threshold as usual.
So I'm suggesting that a counter-narrative may emerge. NZF sinking into the margin of error may cause some of their support base to shift allegiance. That small group could become critical to the election outcome.
Well, I’d suggest you do check. By not checking and by perpetuating your unchecked statement that NZF could sink into the margin of error, you are not only following popular perception but you are feeding it too. This clumsy use of statistics whilst claiming that public perception has no basis in statistics is incredibly poor framing and sloppy narrative. But hey, I’m all for dumbing down public political discourse; it seems to be the preferred way.
I think you're missing the point. If that poll has a different margin of error, all it means is that the kind of people who take statistical measures of uncertainty seriously will think it is important. That group is so tiny that the political relevance of their collective opinion is negligible.
Most people assume that any political poll quoted in the media uses the standard margin of error. Social reality gets created by such mass perceptions. Not that I'm claiming most voters even think about such things! Quite the contrary. 🤨
Well Dennis, I will counter your counter-narrative by suggesting that the opposite may occur – whereby a group of voters (from across the left/right political spectrum) could also step into give one of their votes to NZF to ensure they remain as a centralist balance. I know a number of people who are considering exactly this.
The NZF party of today is a very different animal to the one that existed pre 2008 with Peters spending his time in the wilderness revamping the party into one supported by a much wider age range and range of views to that previously. Both Lprent and I have written here on TS on this many times over recent years.
Sure, Jonesy is a bit of a weak link but the other NZF MPs have been doing a very credible job in their various Ministerial roles and support roles – eg Tracey Martin and Ron Mark as well as Peters himself as Minister of Foreign Affairs.
We don't hear much of Fletcher Tabuteau, but IMO he, rather than Jonesy, is the one who is being groomed as the next leader as reflected in his roles not only as Deputy Leader, but also as understudy to both Peters and Jonesy as Parliamentary Under Secretary for Foreign Affairs and Parliamentary Under Secretary for Regional Economic Development.
An excellent response. All makes sense and I hope you're right. The public mood is fickle and I liken it to a river, in which you get eddies where the local flow sometimes runs up-stream (only in the vortices).
In that analogy the boulders in the river represent structural adjustments in social reality such as SFO investigations/prosecutions. They cause whirlpools in the overall flow.
So these narratives and counter-narratives are sub-groups large and small of the body politic, in which the river represents the meta-narrative (deep context). Some folks are more tribal than others, some more moral than others, some more strategic in their political thinking, some just reactive. Political motivations are always a potent brew that is fermenting!
I suspect the uncertainty analysis used in sampling theory is based on the binomial distribution. If that’s the case then the “margin of error” is roughly two standard deviations giving (a 95% confidence interval) *if* there are two parties with close to 50% support each.
But really the margin of error shouldn’t apply to the poll itself – rather a seperate margin of error should be applied to each party’s level of support.
So if in a poll of 1000 people, the Nats poll 50% support, we would estimate a margin of error of 3.1% in their support.
However if the Greens poll 5% support in the same poll, we would estimate a margin of error of only 1.4% (i.e. 2 sqrt(p(1-p)/n) where p is the true level of support, estimated here by the sample statistic, and n is the sample size).
Dunno about that. The topic has come up a number of times previously here at TS. Yet ISTR sometimes just a few weeks later, some people involved in those threads were again talking about parties 'falling below the margin of error'.
Just his opinion. Misinterpretation of stats has always been endemic. Amongst academics as much as others. I did pass the second year statistics exam at the University of Auckland, but that was in 1969 so I don't consider myself an authority. From your link:
"So what is a ‘margin of error’? It’s a measure of how accurately the results of a poll reflect the views of the whole ‘population’. In a political poll, the whole ’population’ means all potential voters. The margin of error tells you how confident you should be about drawing conclusions from the results."
That's exactly my grasp of the relevance of the margin of error. Application to a small-polling party in the manner described by others seems irrational. Voodoo, almost. But if someone can supply a rationale for this bizarre behaviour I'm open-minded & will give it due consideration.
Don't be guided by authority figures. That's always been the slippery slope to hell. Figure it out for yourself. Note how the paragraph I quoted outlines the rationale for interpretation. The margin of error is clearly specified as pertaining to the whole.
This provides no rational basis for inventing an entirely different margin of error to apply to individual political party ratings. Unless anyone can provide an accepted rationale for doing so, my advice to readers is to beware of attempts to con them with bullshit…
There's authority, then there's credibility. You did read the piece by Thomas Lumley? And as I said, an NZ polling expert told me exactly the same. I even worked up a result set graphically based on the numbers from one of his company's polls. Just need to track it down around the pesky day job that some of us have.
So if you aren't persuaded by a world-class physicist that routinely uses very sophisticated statistics for his day job, maybe you'll find a "How-to Guide for Dummies" from dummies.com more to your taste?
No, because I graduated with a BSc in Physics, and statistics was part of the prescription. Specialisation, and the extent of relevance to the real world, of anyone who progresses further down that rabbit hole, cannot be generalised.
And that mathematical exposition you linked me to contains no relevant logic to the question at hand.
To my understanding a margin of area is used alongside a p-value to make it useful.
If a party gets 50% and a margin of error of 3.5%. And the p-value is 0.05. We can say, with 95% certainty (that 95/100 times), the party in question has between 46.5% and 53.5% support. So, even incorporating a margin of error, there is still room for error.
All the calculations should be performed for each party or the poll is a nonsense.
Yeah, it's all about interpretation. Media framing of the results does the rest. I think this red herring about different margins of error is only of technical interest. I haven't seen anyone make a case for it as an issue of substance. If they were capable, they would have done so. Then it would become a moral issue for broadcasters to get right…
@Dennis. A separate margin of error is crucial. A 3.5% margin of error on 3.5% support is considerably different to 3.5% on 50% support. The first is nonsense and does not belong with the data. You've got this point wrong by a considerable margin, even factoring in a wide margin of error.
No I did not! Your first statement makes sense, but my point was that the margin cited applies to the entire poll. That's how the media frame it to the people. When in Rome do as the Romans do!
My original point was that slipping down into that margin of error is likely to change a sufficient number of minds to affect identity politics polling & potentially the election result. Of course that will be largely dependent on any prosecution resulting and verdict.
OK, I get what you're saying but it wasn't clear. This is media error if only one margin of error is given for varying figures in the polls. This is bad form and should not be mimicked as it's entirely wrong. Possibly, as you allude to, a deliberate minimisation of (coalition) minor parties by media players – cos that's a thing.
This provides no rational basis for inventing an entirely different margin of error to apply to individual political party ratings.
Huh????
Out of a couple of million marbles you pull 1,000 marbles and 36 (3.6%) of those are NZF marbles. How many NZF marbles are there in the total pool of marbles? With 95% confidence, 2.44 – 4.76%, and with 99% confidence, 2.08 – 5.12%.
So. I guess we can say that if an election was held today there would be around a 99% chance that New Zealand First would be gone from Parliament. Your numbers would say that we have a 97.5% chance that NZF will be below 4.76% and 99.5% they will be below 5.12%.
Looks like a pretty good bet that Winnie would be gone to me.
And that is before his case was shot off to the SFO.
Well, that would be true if it were a genuinely random sample of those that would actually turn out to vote. But working out who is actually going to vote, how to contact a random sample of them, and ensuring supporters of different parties are all equally willing to answer questions is a bit harder than pulling marbles out of a jar.
Okay, let's try the moral angle. Polling companies feel constrained to provide the media with results on a sound moral basis, right?
So, if you & Hendry were right, the reports they supply, that the media corps pay for, would contain the specified different margins of error for each political party rated. Do they? Can you provide evidence?
What is the margin of error of the results?
The maximum sampling error is approximately ± 3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level. This is the sampling error for a result around 50%. Results higher and lower than 50% have a smaller sampling error. For example, results around 10% and 5% have sampling errors of approximately ±1.9%-points and ±1.4%-points respectively at the 95% confidence level.
Right, they don't specifically, but they do support Hendry's position on the issue. So when the media interpret a minor party as rating "below the margin of error" (and that is the sense in which I made my original comment), do you (& Hendry and others) tolerate the misrepresentation as normal/traditional rather than condemning them for unethical behaviour?
Bear with me on this, because any dispute on what's right and wrong with some aspect of social reality has a moral basis, eh?
That quote indeed supports Hendy and specifically includes the same numbers.
As I said before, MSM are not doing a good job IMO but it is irrelevant whether I or Hendy tolerate and/or condemn them for that. I pushed back on the demonstrable ignorance here, because I can. It is up to this site’s readers to educate themselves or stay ignorant. I can see no logical reason why one would be wilfully ignorant; fear does not seem to play a role in this, for example.
I don’t think this is primarily a moral issue but quite a simple one of correct versus incorrect use & interpretation of very basic statistics. It does raise an interesting point though as to how MSM and the general public deal/cope with really complex issues and Laws of Physics (physical constraints) when confronted with Climate Change. It is full of advanced modelling stats! Better not discuss that under this post though 😉
Applying the margin of error to smaller parties may well be more relevant for the simple fact that we have that 5% threshold. Applying the incorrect margin of error and digging in is highly irrational.
Based on the latest poll, we can say with 95% confidence that NZF falls below the 5% threshold (3.6 + 1.16 = 4.76%). However, 95% confidence is actually quite low because one in twenty times the true result will be outside the margin of error. If we want to be 99% confident the margin of error increases to 1.52%. In this case, we cannot exclude the possibility that NZF is above 5% (3.6 + 1.52 = 5.12%) and there’s a 1% (one in hundred) chance that the true value falls outside the boundaries of the margin of error.
These basic stats haven’t changed since 1969 and it is neither Voodoo nor bizarre.
I’m not taking it personal, rest assured. I’m just flabbergasted that you refuse to grasp the simple logic and sound reasoning based on foundational statistical concepts. If polls and their associated margins of errors are so tangential to real life and you have better things to do with your valuable time then why are you wasting all this time commenting on polls, which don’t mean a thing without the margin of error??
And shouldn't using this logic National's donations saga also sink its chances? If anything I would say National's behaviour was more blatant and more damaging to the integrity of the electoral system.
Yeah same logic does apply to those voters in whom the notions of fair play and ethical conduct drive their identity politics.
Tempting to read the slight downward drift in National's poll rating as due to that. But it all depends on official investigation outcomes. More people are influenced by authority than morality, and the establishment usually sanitises process and verdicts to produce the desired result. We saw that with Erebus. Official outcomes designed to protect the guilty are authoritative and an integral part of traditional democracy.
Well, that mindset exists, but I reckon only amongst those already committed politically. So I don't expect National to lift. I think the most likely outcome will be distaste amongst uncommitted voters who follow the news.
That group of centrists pays attention to what's going on, has a moral compass, and is likely to evaluate donations mishandling on their own common sense basis. Plenty will be guided by the traditional notion that `where there's smoke, there's fire' regardless of outcomes of investigations. Cover-ups cannot therefore be expected to succeed politically: often it only takes 3% of the electorate to determine an election outcome.
Shit, these details. I prefer the great ideas. What is possible versus what truth is and what the people need. I don't know that intriguing but do know what is good, like everyone.
Yes, it's about the US and the constraints imposed by multiple branches of divided government usually controlled by opposing parties. But the constraints imposed by NZ's MMP system are a similar handbrake on doing things here.
An almost unbelievable story we've barely blinked at. We might huff and puff for five minutes and say it's unacceptable but the reality is we're inured to this sort of behaviour:
To be fair, people in Chch were still pretty screwed up because of the earthquakes and it's not surprising that people lacked judgement after long terms stress. From research I've seen 2013 was the crunch year for people going through the earthquake (not 2011 as you would think).
I don't know what happened in this case … but in general alcoholics are very difficult to treat – being drunk and then in withdrawal can cloud what issues they have and can make the patient incredibly difficult to deal with.
Ditto … If a patient said they wanted to be discharged now (i.e. was craving alcohol), chose to leave in pyjamas and chose to go home by bus then what are the staff supposed to do? Imprison them? People are adults and are free to make bad choices but if they are competent then we have to let them make bad choices.
Ditto … if the patient came back to ED drunk and was aggressive towards the hospital staff then what are the staff supposed to do – just take it?
As I said – I don't know what happened in this case – the hospital staff could have been as appalling as the article says but, on the other hand, there are reasonable scenarios where they could have made all the right choices with the information they had at hand.
Nah … totally inured here. Auckland Hospital had multiple comprehensive goes at killing my father. Slack diagnosis, delayed admission, sent home twice, simple problem turns into a chronic one, I found him collapsed unsupervised in the ward toilet, medical staff who repeatedly refused to communicate with us, no consistent management plan, tense meetings with senior managers who then did the opposite of what the committed to in writing, eventually sent home with a canula still in his arm hidden under a bandage, nearly dies again from subsequent infection, readmitted and put on a totally inappropriate drug regime, nearly dies again … hell I can't remember all the details now. It went on for 10 months, five discharges and four re-admissions.
Eventually I realised the hospital system just didn't care, so we found a nursing home who admitted him and after 12 months of their excellent care he got well enough to go home again. That was 10 years ago.
It wasn't all bad, most of the time it was more tedious than dramatic, and I don't blame the individuals working in it; they usually looked overworked, under resourced and as much trapped by the system as the patients. In most cases it was clear they were doing their best as people. That was the frustrating part, there was never anyone to yell at, to hold accountable for the repeated failures.
After several years we finally extracted his complete medical file out of them. Pages and pages of rambling disconnected notes and jargon, there was no coherence or evidence of a plan, and none of the events that mattered were recorded. In the end we walked away from it; Dad was alive and even though his quality of life was permanently harmed, we figured we should be grateful for this and not make a misery of what we have left of his life fighting the system for years and years.
Having said this, I salute the people who followed up on Neil Jones’ appalling story. They will have a story so much longer and more aggravating than could be even outlined in this article. To get even this far is quite the accomplishment I would think.
I read the report – the medical staff were clearly at fault but there were many people who tried to get him care – nurses, general public, orderlies – so I don't think it's fair to say we're inured to this type of behaviour.
I know of story after story of substandard care in Nelson hospital – so much that I'd be surprised if someone had a good experience. Feels like a deliberate strategy to drive people to private healthcare – for the lucky few who can pay.
I was at the A&E last week and saw a group of young guys come in, one was obviously in a extremely distressed mental state, I would say from the looks of it, from (bad) drug use.
An hour later I saw that they had been kicked out, they were still in the car park, the young man was quite obviously in a critically bad state, his mates were having a hard time managing him, I wanted t help, but had my own pressing emergency to take care of.
All I can assume is there was no provision at the hospital to deal that poor kid in that state, it was a for me just another sign of this countries drift to the selfish liberal end game, Ayn Rand would have approved.
Despite what I've written above, I can only side with the staff in this instance. Two of my in-laws are medical people and they've both been assaulted verbally and physically by out of control patients more times than they can be bothered counting. And when confronted with these situations, their first thought is for the welfare of other vulnerable patients being put at risk. It's a no win for everyone.
You are right, hospitals are not set up to deal with this people in that kind of state. They need to be dealt with separately in a different location and by staff trained to manage their challenges.
The problem is that people with head injuries and people who are drunk have very similar symptoms so a lot of the time people can't be left to sleep if off.
" They need to be dealt with separately in a different location and by staff trained to manage their challenges. "
Exactly. And there are no such staff or facilities available. Zero. I have seen the exact situation described by AT myself. And know people turned away in that situation who then commited suicide or crimes.
That is my point, we live in a society where many people abuse drugs and alcohol regularly, you would think that we would have long ago made provisions to deal with the inevitable results..quite bizarre really when you think about it for a minute or two.
I agree with you that the hospital staff shouldn't be left to deal with the messy chaos that that type of abuse often results in.
Funny coincidental use of the term "critically bad".
If they're "critical" in the technical terminology, then they won't be disrupting the Ed department and can be treated. If they're disrupting ED, they're endangering the lives of other patients.
Now, there is an issue about providing healthcare to people in acute mental distress (not due to drugs/alcohol) vs providing that healthcare to people who are in that state due to drugs or alcohol – they might need to be held for their own safety and monitored, but ED is not the place for that. The police pick up drunks, but they're not really equipped for people who might be in danger of death – and sometimes people die in custody because of this.
Every so often there is talk of sort of an intermediate facility, where the people are monitored more closely and medical staff beyond basic first responders are available, but I'm not sure one has ever been established in NZ.
If you think getting tangled up in a sordid sex scandal that has pretty much ruined your parliamentary career counts as “refreshing” the line up then yeah sure…
Complainant Adam Currie said it had taken far too long for the decision to happen, meaning the ad was live for seven months.
"I made the complaint in July last year – the original decision was not made until the September 9, and now the ASA is finally forcing the advertiser to remove the ad – after it's had seven months to mislead the public," Currie said.
"By this timeline, an ad reported today would be allowed to run until the beginning of advance voting for this year's election."
"It's shameful to allow the public to be misled for so long, but it's important that people are aware that National is putting out ads that are factually misleading."
ASA chair Hilary Souter told Stuff the body generally expected ads to be removed during the appeal process if a complaint was upheld against them.
I find her general expectations totally reassuring, don't you? What a watchdog!
Just imagine the uproar if Labour or the Greens – or NZ First for that matter – left a misleading and mischievous ad running for seven months while waiting for the Authority's decision.
And Parliamentary Services had approved the spending as being lawful. The Auditor General of the day concluded it might not be lawful but he declined to order the money be returned to the parliamentary purse. Labour returned it anyway.
The Natty boys and girls do love false equivalences.
The pledge card? There's probably people voting this election who weren't even born when the righties first got their knickers in a twist over that "scandal".
From the "weird shit" files: Donny Dotard cultists are now claiming Romney voted to impeach to cover up his own connections to Burisma. Yes, this is actually happening.
Vernon 'touchy' Tava is spending a lot on facebook ads. Today he's claiming a victory because a supermarket's addressing plastic – which has nothing to do with him and a lot to do with the work of his arch enemies – the Greens. Misleading, lying, fraudulent… I'd appreciate it if this cretin was scrutinised more closely by TS writers. Where is their money coming from? Does NZ need a party built solely as a personal vendetta. How many other women, other than my girl, has he put hands on in public?
Yeah if he was altruistic he'd be interesting. As it stands he platforms on green bashing, and now claiming victory for green work. Seems vindictive and dishonest from here. And yeah, his facebook spend is not small I've seen half a dozen 'sponsored content' from the party so far, five bashing greens or greenpeace, and today's 'victory' post.
Undecided are way ahead in New Hampshire: "Only about half of likely primary voters in New Hampshire say they have definitely decided for whom they will vote".
Bob Jones of to a s-s-s-s-stuttering start in his court case. Yesterday calls his own lawyer a goose for referring to him as Sir Jones, and today seems to have mis-placed his hearing aid!
Winston cut a coalition establishment deal for NZ First that gave them every opportunity to shine.
A billion dollars to ignite Provincial NZ. A launch ramp for Shane Jones to rise, the heir apparent.
That's a thousand million dollars, you'd think it would be enough to generate a 3rd page story about a young guy starting his apprenticeship, I'm not seeing them.
Do you need more money Shane, is a thousand million not enough?
Money is never the answer, it's a thing, solutions start with people and Earth.
I understand you have lots of money earmarked to improve NZ. We've got a shortage of houses bro. Can you spend some of your money teaching lots of people to make houses please.
Its good that Auckland City mission has opened a 15 beds safe whare for homeless Wahine.
That's is awesome A2 Milk donating 3 million to help fight the virus in Wuhan.
Everyone has been warned about the changes to our weather the effects of human cause climate change deniers is councils don't heed the good advice and end up in a mess.
We should treat Wai as a taonga use less for humans leave more for Our wild Wai environment.
Lloyd its cool that BP fuels Company has plans of changing to a carbon neutral company.
Yes there is to much high carbon footprint concrete in the World we need to use more engineered wood products that actually stores carbon to replace concrete were we can.
We do have to make big cuts to Aotearoa carbon footprint Transport =Electric vehicles Farming = minimise Wai use Organic food products and minimise methane products plant trees in the correct place.
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Ruth Cunningham, Charlotte Paul, Andrew MoorePublic health responses to infectious diseases such as COVID-19 require us to draw on our common humanity and be explicit about our values. Recognising this will help us make good decisions in difficult situations so that, for example, the need to impose restrictive measures ...
The Helen Clark Foundation has released its report on the housing crisis, and found that house-hoarders are to blame for it:Property investors are to blame for New Zealand's high house prices, a new research paper published by the Helen Clark Foundation says. [...] McArthur said previous attempts to address housing ...
The Abortion Legislation Committee has reported back on the Abortion Legislation Bill and recommended that it be passed with some amendments. Unfortunately, the latter include even more hoops to jump through for those seeking abortions after 20 weeks, including a time-wasting requirement to consult a second doctor. No-one casually seeks ...
Brexit is likely to be a disaster for the UK (how sad, never mind). But now that they're out of the EU, the latter has finaly taken the opportunity to blacklist one of their key tax havens:The Cayman Islands, a British overseas territory, is to be put on an EU ...
I’m not quite sure of what to make of the new figures for COVID-19 (as we must now call the novel coronavirus – though I’m not sure the capitalisation is correct) from Hubei province:Image from https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51495484The spike yesterday is a consequence of a using a different way of ...
Bob Jones has dropped his defamation case against Renae Maihi. Good. But at the same time, it perfectly exposes what the case was all about: not protecting Jones' reputation, but punishing someone who had dared to criticise him, and deterring others from doing the same. This rich pompous asshat dragged ...
As I've done for the past few years, I'm curating and presenting The Listening Lounge, the talk programme at Splore. On the morning of Saturday the 22nd at the Living Lounge stage, the korero goes like this.Yes, we're talking about drugs again, not just because I'm professionally interested in drug ...
What Were They Thinking? RNZ's CEO Paul Thompson (left) and Jim Mather, Chairman of the RNZ Board of Governors, attempt to justify the debacle arising out of their attempt to downgrade RNZ Concert to the Economic Development, Science and Innovation Select Committee at Parliament on Thursday, 13 February 2020.WHAT IS ...
Dame Tariana Turia with former PM John KeyWhat is it about Tariana Turia’s grudge against the Labour Party? Not content with attacking the Government over Whānau Ora funding, which was increased by $80 million in 2019, she has now made it personal by saying that Jacinda Ardern is out of her ...
Back in 2017, right after being elected, Jacinda Ardern promised that there would be no new mines on conservation land. Since then, her government has done nothing to make that happen, and now the policy has been officially "parked" for the election:West Coast-Tasman MP Damien O'Connor says the "no new ...
So the guy who advocated for public burning and beheading feels offended because someone called him a racist!Perhaps Bob Jones hasn't heard of the very old saying; Live by the sword, die by the sword?I mean for someone who often writes opinionated nonsense about Maori; this is a ridiculous case ...
The government today announced a major support package aimed at reducing homelessness. A thousand new transitional housing places, more support for people to find homes (or not lose them in the first place), all good stuff. The one problem with it is that they're going to start charging people in ...
Courtroom Drama: There is no off-switch in a courtroom. Neither is it possible to turn the page in disgust. Ill-formed and ill-defended opinions will be exposed ruthlessly and unapologetically. As Shakespeare put it: “Reputation is an idle and most false imposition; oft got without merit, and lost without deserving.” Sometimes the ...
As of today, the novel coronavirus spreading in China is called COVID-19. Why does it matter? Around the office, we’ve had several conversations over the past few weeks about how 2019-nCoV needed its own name. First, it was getting annoying calling it by the above designation, and ‘novel coronavirus’ doesn’t ...
by Philip Ferguson Last month B’Tselem, the Israeli Information Center for Human Rights in the Occupied Territories, reported: “In 2019, Israeli security forces killed 133 Palestinians, including 28 minors. Of the casualties, 104 were killed in the Gaza Strip, 26 in the West Bank (including East Jerusalem) and three within ...
A ballot for a single Member's Bill was held today, and the following bill was drawn: Arms (Firearms Prohibition Orders) Amendment Bill (No 2) (Brett Hudson)Its basicly more "tough on crime" nonsense (its already illegal for unlicensed people to own guns) designed to wedge NZ First against its arsehole base. ...
In 2015 the world agreed to the Paris Agreement to fight climate change. Each country would offer a Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) "that it intends to achieve", and "pursue domestic mitigation measures, with the aim of achieving [it]". And every five years, they'd improve on it, ratcheting up ambition until ...
In theory, the emissions trading scheme should reduce emissions. Making polluters pay for permits to pollute lets them save money by reducing pollution, giving them a financial incentive to do the right thing. But right from the start the ETS was broken with a system of free allocation, so polluters ...
Irish voters went to the polls on Saturday in parliamentary elections, and perhaps delivered a political revolution. Since independence, Irish politics has been dominated by two parties, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. Basicly patronage networks with indistinguishable policies, their cleavage isn't ideology, but who killed whose father or grandfather in ...
Once again the Aotearoa Bike Challenge is on us, and once again I’m participating. In principle this is not hard because it does not represent a significant switch in behavior for me. I already bike nearly every day. The Bicycle The fascinating thing about cycling is the realisation that this ...
Lately there has been a great deal of misinformation regarding the origins and purpose of Skeptical Science. As John Cook wrote nearly a decade ago, Skeptical Science is primarily a website that debunks climate misinformation with peer-reviewed science. Despite the ever-worsening impacts from climate change, with record after record being broken in ...
Under Attack: By sacking not only RNZ Concert’s presenters, but also its producers and librarians, and reducing the station to an automated purveyor of classical music in-between parliamentary broadcasts, RNZ’s CEO, Paul Thompson, wasn’t simply announcing an operational shake-up, he was declaring war on one of the most important guardians of ...
Story of the Week... Editorial of the Week... Toon of the Week... Quote of the Week... Coming Soon on SkS... Climate Feedback Reviews... SkS Week in Review... Poster of the Week... Story of the Week... Australian smoke plume sets recordsThe recent wildfires in Australia sent one of ...
The Global Protest to #FightInequality was powerful – thankyou and what next? Dear allies, We started the decade with a huge protest to #FightInequality that was heard around the world, including the 1% at Davos. Watch and share the highlights on facebook and twitter. A huge thank you. Together we ...
The Ministry of Health have announced a package that might ensure NZ will never experience another measles epidemic. While at the time of writing the details are still limited it appears that the important limitations in our current programme have been acknowledged and the intent is to address them. Great ...
Prof Nick Wilson, Prof Michael BakerIn this blog we briefly summarise our assessment of the highly uncertain new coronavirus threat. Given its potential to become a severe and prolonged global pandemic, a precautionary response now means activating all components of our pandemic plan, with a particular focus on ‘keep ...
When Labour was running for election, Jacinda Ardern famously said that climate change was "my generation's nuclear free moment". The implication was that her government would take the problem seriously, and act swiftly to reduce emissions. The reality:New Zealand will emit a million more tonnes of greenhouse gases in 2020 ...
James Renwick is Professor of Physical Geography at Victoria University of Wellington. He studied at Canterbury and the University of Washington and has worked on diverse aspects of climate science, including global atmospheric circulation and Antarctic sea ice. In December 2019 he was appointed to the New Zealand Climate Change ...
by Philip Ferguson Exit polls are showing a three-way virtual tie between the main parties in the south of Ireland. Sinn Fein, Fianna Fail and Fine Gael are all on just over 22%. FG on 22.4, SF on 22.3, FF on 22.2. Exit polls indicate that over 30% of 18-24 ...
A chronological listing of news articles linked to on the Skeptical Science Facebook Page during the past week, i.e., Sun, Feb 2, 2020 through Sat, Feb 8, 2020 Editor's Pick New Report Details How Fossil Fuel Industry's Climate Destruction Also Exacerbates Human Rights Abuses"Even in the face of the ...
In a previous post I described briefly when and how the Starlink satellite chains – recent launches by Space-X in a scheme to bring 5G internet connectivity to the whole globe – could be seen from New Zealand with the naked eye. Here I provide an update and predictions for ...
Keeping The Faith: This Government’s broad, new, heavily moderated, progressive faith does not require a prime minister with the powers of a medieval pope. Jacinda’s regime has no need of subterranean torture chambers to ensure compliance. A gift for diplomacy and the ability to inspire her fellow human-beings is all ...
Jonathan Freedland of the Guardian has penned a column which chastises the left wing of the Labour party for daring to retain principles and ideals, qualities - it seems - that should be jettisoned in pursuit of power.Never mind that Freedland was an ardent Remainer, that is to say, one ...
Tonight’s news suggests the coronavirus outbreak may have originated from pangolins. Details are very sketchy, almost nothing at all beyond a claim of high similarity. My impression is this claim comes from a press release by South China Agricultural University. Initial discussion online suggests this is a more likely candidate ...
by Susanne Kemp The Fire and Emergency service (FENZ) has recently asked firefighters in Auckland Areas 3, 4 and 5 to take on an additional duty that has rather ominous implications. Namely, to collect names and addresses of everyone on the premises of fires they attend. The firefighters’ union, the ...
Part of the story of the Nazis' rise to power in Germany was the willingness of mainstream right-wing parties to work with them to keep out the left. Because of this, one of the fundamental rules of postwar German politics has been "do not work with Nazis". As a result, ...
There has long been a truism in public broadcasting: don't mess with Concert FM. The theory was that although the station has been in a long-term audience decline, and that audience is steadily ageing out, it has powerful establishment support – and any threat to it would provoke a fury.As ...
This is a re-post from the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists The heat absorbed in Earth’s oceans reached a new record in 2019, found a recent study published in the journal Advances in Atmospheric Sciences. Despite the fact that this has been the case for almost every year over the past decade, this information ...
We are confronted with the spectre of Simon Bridges making clear he cannot, will not, trust Winston Peters – the oft-cited “King Maker” in New Zealand politics.Supporters are lauding it as a master stroke, naturally, because in their eyes, it prevents him being the tail that wags the dog. ...
by Don Franks Under a government claiming empathy with the fine arts, Radio New Zealand ( RNZ) is poised to cut back its classical music station, RNZ Concert. The plan is replacing it on FM radio with music “for a younger audience” as part of a new multimedia music brand. ...
More Thwaites This past week we heard disturbing news about Antarctica's Thwaites Glacier. Helping to fill in the longer term history of Thwaites' behavior and especially helpful in interpreting results of the recent drilling project and what it may say about the future of this unstable mass of ice is Revealing the ...
Inaccuracies are very common in scientific paper abstracts. Image credit:Science in the Abstract: Don’t Judge a Study by its Cover I have come to accept anti-fluoride campaigners will never stop cherry-picking research and findings ...
“The scene is set, the players met…”. And what players they are in this farce of an Election coming up in the United States this year. There is a multi-faceted anger in the broader situation the world finds itself in, in which the false promises of so-called “moderates” find themselves ...
A few years ago, a company lowballed a contract to dispose of toxic waste from the Tiwai Point aluminium smelter. So, they dumped it in a disused paper mill in Mataura, then went into liquidation - effectively dumping the problem on local councils. The waste is dangerous - it releases ...
Unhappy with the demonisation of Iran in Western media, I was fortunate to have the Australian Institute of International Affairs invite me to write an alternative analysis for their on-line journal Australian Outlook. I did, and they serialised it into two parts. The essays are short, so I did not ...
Regional Economic Development Minister Shane Jones was on RNZ’s Morning Report talking about the recent droughts in the Northland region and what the Provincial Growth Fund (PGF) is doing to alleviate its impact. The PGF recently announced a funding of $2 million for temporary water supplies to Kaikohe and Kaitaia, ...
Speaking to The Country’s Jamie Mackay, New Zealand First MP and Cabinet Minister Shane Jones talks water storage, plant-based meat imitation, and superstar Hollywood director James Cameron. While water storage may have its critics, Minister Jones defended the scheme by saying: “unless we invest and continue to invest” in this ...
Regional Economic Development Minister Shane Jones is accusing northern iwi leaders of selling out Māori by voting for ideologically-driven court cases rather than practical steps to increase water supply. “I just think that iwi leaders who think that water issues are going to be solved by perpetually fighting in the ...
A dairy owner in St Kilda, Dunedin was delighted to hear that an attempted robbery of his establishment was foiled by a government-funded security system. Sean Lee was delighted at how well the anti-theft smoke system worked. When a knife-wielding man entered the store, the shop assistant immediately pressed a ...
Customs says it stopped more than three tonnes of illegal drugs coming into New Zealand last year. This includes 1,180kg of methamphetamine, 329kg of ephedrine and pseudoephedrine precursors, which could have been converted into 246kg of methamphetamine, 739kg and 6469 pills of MDMA or Ecstasy and 60kg of cocaine. Offshore, ...
Hon. Shane Jones, Minister for Regional Economic Development Up to $2 million will be allocated from the Provincial Growth Fund to set up temporary water supplies in Kaikohe and Kaitaia where drought is biting hard, Regional Economic Development Minister Shane Jones has announced. Drought conditions in Northland have led to ...
Darroch Ball, Spokesperson for Law and Order New Zealand First welcomes the deployment of an Eagle Police helicopter in Christchurch in what is a step towards fulfilling its long-standing goal to increase the use of police helicopters for the front line, particularly in addressing the scourge of fleeing drivers. Christchurch leads ...
It may have been the first sitting week of 2020, but our Government is already in full-swing - managing a strong economy, investing in infrastructure, and working to break the cycle of homelessness. Read below for all that, and more... ...
In a heated debate in Parliament, National's Deputy Leader Paula Bennett claimed that “nearly 1600 patched gang members have been added” since the Coalition Government took power. To illustrate her point, she altered a chart used by Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern to show her government’s progress in housing to instead ...
Speech by the Rt Hon Winston Peters at Parliament’s Opening 2020 "We all need insurance" This year New Zealanders are going to have a clear choice to make That choice is between: Optimism versus pessimism; More progress versus back to the future; Investment versus divestment; Unity versus division. New Zealand ...
Infrastructure Minister Shane Jones has slammed the Board of Auckland Airport following the airport's runway closing twice within two weeks due to maintenance. Around 2,000 passengers were affected by last week’s runway closures, according to 1NEWS. Another maintenance closure on January 24 saw two international flights and three domestic flights ...
Jenny Marcroft, Spokesperson for Broadcasting New Zealand First supports the commissioning of a business case to assess the viability of a new public media entity. “A strong media environment is critical for a healthy democracy. New Zealand First is a strong supporter of a diverse, independent media,” New Zealand First broadcasting spokesperson ...
Pounamou and technology industries in the West Coast region are set to receive more than $2 million in Provincial Growth Fund (PGF) funding. This was announced by the Under-Secretary for Regional Economic Development Fletcher Tabuteau during Waitangi Day commemorations in Hokitika. He said $800,000 would be given to Development West ...
Clayton Mitchell MP, New Zealand First spokesperson for Labour and Industrial Relations Unemployment and wage growth numbers released by Stats NZ today demonstrate a labour market in good shape with unemployment falling to 4.0%, the underutilisation rate falling to an 11 year low, and wage growth at a 10-year high ...
Hon. Ron Mark, New Zealand First Spokesperson for Defence New Zealand First Spokesperson for Defence Ron Mark, welcomes the official opening of Te Rau Aroha, a new museum at Waitangi Treaty Grounds as part of our Coalition Agreement. “It is a great honour to be part of an effective Government ...
Rt. Hon. Winston Peters, Deputy Prime MinisterGood morning,Let us start with important acknowledgements.First, this special day, in remembrance of the 28th Maori Battalion, is also to honour all those men and women who have risked their lives in the service of our country.Second, special guest Robert ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters says New Zealand will look to build on its relationship with the United Kingdom and recommit to the European Union, after the country officially left the continental union recently. The Minister said New Zealand already cooperates closely with Britain on defence and security issues and has ...
Rt. Hon. Winston Peters, Deputy Prime Minister, Minister for Foreign Affairs The Government has agreed with Air New Zealand to charter an aircraft to assist New Zealanders leaving Wuhan, Foreign Minister Winston Peters has announced. The aircraft will have capacity for around 300 passengers and will fly from Wuhan to ...
The Government’s work to put trades and vocational education back on the agenda took another major step forward today with the passing of the Education (Vocational Education and Training Reform) Amendment Bill, Education Minister Chris Hipkins said. “This is a watershed day for trades and vocational education. These law changes formalise ...
Speeding up the return of Christchurch regeneration activities to local leadership is behind the Greater Christchurch Regeneration Amendment Bill introduced to Parliament today by Minister Megan Woods. “As we approach nine years since the February 2011 earthquake in Canterbury, and with the transition to local leadership well underway, the time ...
Hundreds of New Zealanders and international visitors will be able to get back out into nature with the Milford Track partially reopening next week, after extensive assessments and repairs, the Minister of Conservation Eugenie Sage announced today. The popular Great Walk has been closed since 3 February after an extreme ...
Up to 110 new EV chargers nationwide in cities and regions 50 electric vehicles for ride-sharing The Government is helping deliver more infrastructure and options for low emissions transport through new projects, Energy and Resources Minister Dr Megan Woods says. Tauranga, Nelson, Levin, New Plymouth and Oamaru are just some ...
New Zealanders are increasingly better off under this Government as wages rise and families have more disposable income, Finance Minister Grant Robertson says. Stats NZ reported today that average household disposable incomes after housing costs rose 4.9% in 2019. This was the highest rise in four years and came as ...
All New Zealanders need to have their voices heard at work to ensure we have an inclusive and productive economy. Today we introduce a Bill to do this for workers in the New Zealand screen industry, Workplace Relations and Safety Minister Iain Lees-Galloway says. “The Screen Industry Workers Bill will ...
The Government has announced further help for the Southland and Otago regions to speed up recovery efforts from the floods. “I’ve approved Enhanced Taskforce Green (ETFG), making $500,000 available to help with the clean-up in Fiordland, Southland, and the Clutha district in Otago,” Minister for Social Development Carmel Sepuloni said. ...
Following the announcement that more than 340 schools will be funded to run events promoting vocational education, the Government has announced it will fund a further 257 events to be run by employers and industry. “These industry-run events will allow more than 30,000 students to connect with more than 2,000 ...
Today the Government is making progress on a fairer and more secure rental market for renters and landlords with the introduction of the Residential Tenancies Amendment Bill in Parliament. “This Bill includes a series of reforms to improve the wellbeing of the 609,700 households that live in rented homes, and ...
A Government programme to wipe out pea weevil has achieved a world first, with Biosecurity Minister Damien O’Connor today announcing the successful eradication of the noxious pest from Wairarapa. This means the nearly four-year ban on pea plants and pea straw was lifted today. Commercial and home gardeners can again grow ...
Southland residents hit by flooding caused by heavy rainfall can now access help finding temporary accommodation with the Government activating the Temporary Accommodation Service, Minister of Civil Defence Peeni Henare announced today. “The Temporary Accommodation Service (TAS) has been activated by the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment to help ...
“Is that it?” That’s Finance Minister Grant Robertson’s response to Simon Bridges’ much-hyped economic speech today. “Simon Bridges just gave the most over-hyped and under-delivered speech that I can remember during my time in politics,” Grant Robertson said. “It’s not surprising. Simon Bridges literally said on the radio this morning ...
A trial deployment of the Police Eagle helicopter in Christchurch will test whether the aircraft would make a significant difference to crime prevention and community safety. “The Bell 429 helicopter will be based in Christchurch for five weeks, from 17 February to 20 March,” said Police Minister Stuart Nash. “The ...
The Government has kept up the pace of its work to promote New Zealand’s trade interests and diversify our export markets, with visits to Fiji and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) by Trade and Export Growth Minister David Parker. Building momentum to bring the PACER Plus trade and development agreement ...
The Coalition Government’s investment in a strong border and disrupting transnational organised crime produced record results for stopping drugs in 2019, says Minister of Customs Jenny Salesa. The illegal drugs were seized at the New Zealand border by Customs, and overseas by Customs’ international border partners before the drugs could ...
Transport Minister Phil Twyford today kicked off construction of a separated cycleway alongside Tamaki Drive. A two-way separated cycleway will be built along the northern side of Tamaki Drive, between the Quay Street Cycleway extension and Ngapipi Road. There will be a separate walking path alongside. Phil Twyford said giving ...
Owner-occupiers of unit and apartments living in earthquake-prone buildings will have certainty about the financial support they’ll be eligible for with the release of criteria for an upcoming assistance scheme, Minister for Building and Construction Jenny Salesa says. The Residential Earthquake-Prone Building Financial Assistance Scheme will help unit owners facing ...
Temporary restrictions on travel from China will remain in place as a precautionary measure to protect against the spread of the COVID-19 coronavirus. The restrictions which prevent foreign nationals travelling from, or transiting through, mainland China from entering New Zealand have been extended for a further 8 days. This position ...
Employment Minister Willie Jackson announced today that Tairāwhiti rangatahi will benefit from an investment made by the Government’s He Poutama Rangatahi (HPR) scheme. The funding will go to the Tautua Village, Kauneke programme and the Matapuna Supported Employment Programme which will fund 120 rangatahi over two years. “Both programmes work ...
All parents and caregivers need to ensure that their children go to school unless they are sick, Associate Education Minister Tracey Martin said today. “The school attendance results for 2019 show, across the board, a drop in the number of students going to school regularly,” the Minister says. “Apart from ...
A Deed of Settlement agreeing redress for historical Treaty claims has been signed by the Crown and Moriori at Kōpinga Marae on Rēkohu (Chatham Islands) today, Minister for Treaty of Waitangi Negotiations Andrew Little has announced. Moriori have a tradition of peace that extends back over 600 years. This settlement ...
Transport Minister Phil Twyford today with Māori King Tuheitia Pōtatau Te Wherowhero VII officially opened the country’s newest road, the $384 million Huntly section of the Waikato Expressway. The 15km four-lane highway with side and central safety barriers takes State Highway 1 east of Huntly town, across lowlands and streams ...
The rapid uptake of life-saving new hepatitis C medicine Maviret since it was funded by PHARMAC a year ago means the elimination of the deadly disease from this country is a realistic goal, Health Minister David Clark says. Hepatitis C is a blood-borne virus which attacks the liver, proving fatal ...
Kaupapa Māori will underpin the Government’s new plan to deal with homelessness announced by the Prime Minister in Auckland this morning. “Māori are massively overrepresented among people experiencing homelessness, so, to achieve different outcomes for Māori, we have to do things very differently,” says the Minister of Māori Development ...
1000 new transitional housing places delivered by end of year to reduce demand for emergency motel accommodation. Introduce 25% of income payment, after 7 days, for those in emergency motel accommodation to bring in line with other forms of accommodation support. Over $70m extra to programmes that prevents those at ...
Clear requirements for ensuring customers are treated fairly by banks, insurers and other financial service providers are included in new financial conduct legislation that passed its first reading today. “The recent reviews, by the Financial Markets Authority (FMA) and Reserve Bank of New Zealand, into the conduct of banks and ...
Applications are now open for the fifth round of the Regional Culture and Heritage Fund Associate Minister for Arts, Culture and Heritage Grant Robertson announced today. “I am delighted to open this year’s fund which has some $7 million available to support performing arts venues, galleries, museums and whare ...
The Minister of Māori Development, Hon Nanaia Mahuta today congratulated Associate Professor Amokura Kawharu on her appointment as the next President of the Law Commission. “Amokura Kawharu will be a standout in her new role, leading in an innovative and forward looking approach to the law reform process. She will ...
Auckland University legal academic Amokura Kawharu has been appointed as the next President of the Law Commission, Justice Minister Andrew Little announced today. Associate Professor Kawharu will take up her new appointment on 11 May 2020. “I would like to congratulate Associate Professor Kawharu on her appointment,” Andrew ...
A programme for employers to help them engage effectively with younger employees was launched today by Minister of Employment, Willie Jackson. The Youth Ready Employer Programme contains a range of on-line templates that employers can easily access to help with employing and retaining young people in their businesses. The programme ...
Budget 2020 will be delivered on Thursday 14 May, Finance Minister Grant Robertson announced today. “This year’s Budget will continue the Coalition Government’s focus on tackling the long-term challenges facing New Zealand while also preparing the economy for the future. “Those challenges and opportunities cannot be resolved in one budget, ...
I move, That this House place on record its appreciation and thanks for the devoted and distinguished service to New Zealand by the late Rt Hon Michael Kenneth Moore, member of the Order of New Zealand, a member of Her Majesty's Most Honourable Privy Council, an Honorary Member of the ...
Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor has today classified the drought conditions in Northland as an adverse event for the primary sector, unlocking $80,000 in Government support. “This is recognition that the extreme and prolonged nature of this dry spell is taking its toll on our farmers and growers and additional support ...
The Minister of Police says an operation to smash a trans national drug smuggling ring today will make a significant impact on the methamphetamine trade fuelling harm in our communities. Police have announced 10 arrests and the seizure of up to five million dollars’ worth of illicit drugs after an ...
The Government’s books are in a strong position to withstand global headwinds, with the accounts in surplus and expenses close to forecast, Finance Minister Grant Robertson says. The Treasury today released the Crown accounts for the six months to December. The operating balance before gains and losses (OBEGAL) was above ...
Race courses can improve safety with this year’s second round of funding from the Racing Safety Development Fund. Minister for Racing Winston Peters has announced the second funding round of 2019/20 is open with $347,875 available for distribution. “The racing industry is integral to the economic and social fabric of ...
Hundreds of thousands of young adults will be offered measles vaccinations in a new campaign to strengthen New Zealand’s immunisation system, Associate Health Minister Julie Anne Genter said at its launch in Auckland today. “About 300,000 young adults aged between 15 and 29 are not fully protected against measles, and ...
The Government is committing $300,000 to fund research to update behavioural information to make sure HIV and STI prevention services are targeted appropriately in New Zealand. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and Finance Minister Grant Robertson made the announcement at today’s Big Gay Out in Auckland. “There is much talk about ...
The Minister of Broadcasting, Communications and Digital Media has announced work will begin on a business case to assess the viability of forming a new public media entity. “The Government must ensure New Zealanders have a strong independent public media service for decades to come, which means ensuring public ...
Minister of Civil Defence Hon Peeni Henare announced today that the Government will contribute $100,000 to the Southland regional Mayoral Relief Fund, to support communities impacted by the recent flooding in Southland. Mr Henare says this week’s flooding has caused significant disruption to communities in the lower South Island. ...
The Prime Minister has tried to relieve mounting pressure on China and New Zealand's bilateral relationship at a Chinese New Year Celebration at Parliament. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Larissa Christensen, Lecturer in Criminology & Justice | Co-leader of the Sexual Violence Research and Prevention Unit (SVRPU), University of the Sunshine Coast This week’s ABC’s Four Corners exposed an elite Melbourne school for failing to adequately respond to the grooming of ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Trish Luker, Senior lecturer, University of Technology Sydney Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander readers are advised this article contains the names and voices of deceased people. When was the last time you signed your name? Perhaps you are more familiar with the ...
“Oranga Tamariki have remained silent on their role in this horrific situation,” a Māori leader tells Melanie Reid and Bonnie Sumner. A respected Hawke’s Bay kaumatua, who has been supporting the whānau whānui of a four-year-old boy being treated in hospital for brain injuries, says Oranga Tamariki needs to take responsibility ...
*Watch Melanie Reid's full interview in the video player above* Oranga Tamariki stands accused of returning a four-year-old who had been previously badly injured within a Flaxmere household to the same home, where he has since been severely injured again. It allegedly did so without full consultation with the wider whānau, some ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Roy Green, Emeritus Professor & UTS innovation adviser, University of Technology Sydney The only surprise about the termination of the Holden brand in Australia was that it caused such surprise. This was the final nail in an already empty coffin, given local ...
The owners of the disputed land at Ihumātao say for seven months they've halted development at the request of the Prime Minister, but that can't continue indefinitely. ...
Big Tech companies like Microsoft have raised the spectre of geo-blocking NZ if the Government proceeds with a bill for classifying streamed content. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Grant Williamson, Research Fellow in Environmental Science, University of Tasmania As bushfires in New South Wales are finally contained, attention is turning to nature’s recovery. Green shoots are sprouting and animals are returning. But we must accept that in some cases, the ...
Are you a time-poor urban apartment-dweller who’s put composting in the too-hard basket? Read on…About half of what Aucklanders chuck in their rubbish bins is actually compostable material. That means a whopping 90,000 tonnes of Auckland households’ food waste ends up in landfill each year. Why is that a problem? ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Matthew Fuller-Tyszkiewicz, Associate Professor, Psychology, Deakin University Snapchat has announced a new feature called “Here For You” that promises to “provide proactive in-app support to Snapchatters who may be experiencing a mental health or emotional crisis”. The popular youth-oriented app is the ...
Dr Bryce Edwards.A very concerning element of the current NZ First donations scandal is the role of lobbying and lobbyists close to the Government. The most recent story from RNZ’s Guyon Espiner and Kate Newton, revealed that lobbyist Doug Woolerton, who is also a trustee of the NZ First ...
“The visit by the UN Special Rapporteur on the right to adequate housing has reinforced the need to view good, affordable homes as a fundamental human right – and highlighted what needs to happen to ensure all New Zealanders are well-housed,” says Scott ...
The government has announced a ban on electricity retailers using promotions to lure back customers who’ve changed companies. Flick Electric’s Nikki Cockburn explains why this is a victory for consumers and competition. Progress on the Electricity Price Review (EPR) might be slow – especially when it comes to putting recommendations into ...
Acculturation – the cultural modification of an individual, group, or people by adapting to or borrowing traits from another culture or a merging of cultures – is increasingly evident in this country’s public agencies. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has not escaped the process. In July 2018, soon after ...
Pacific Media Watch The Philippines top state lawyer has filed a lawsuit against the country’s key television broadcaster with “guns blazing” but he ought to be devoting more effort on governance, says Rappler co-founder and managing editor Glenda M. Gloria. Gloria, who has been announced as a keynote speaker ...
The Electricity Authority says the ban on power companies offering better deals to customers who want to switch should bring down power prices. From 21 March the authority will ban the so-called win-backs offered to customers within 180 days of leaving their original supplier. Figures show 435,000 consumers switched suppliers ...
This is a press statement from UN Special Rapporteur on the right to housing at the end of her 10-day visit to New Zealand. The Government of New Zealand has recognized that the country is facing a housing crisis, said Leilani Farha, UN Special Rapporteur ...
Fletcher Building is hopeful the Ihumātao land dispute can be resolved soon but says it cannot hold off indefinitely. Presenting the construction company's half-year results to the end of December 2019 chief executive Ross Taylor said it has been a complex situation. But the company said in a presentation that ...
The telecommunications company Spark has made a larger profit off a big boost in mobile sales, with the company's bottom line rising 9.2 percent to $167 million in the six months ended December. Revenue rose 4 percent to $1.82 billion with increased margins in the mobile, broadband and cloud divisions. ...
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Former National MP Jami-Lee Ross, has been named today as one of the four people facing Serious Fraud Office charges in relation to two $100,000 donations made to the National Party. ...
Former National MP Jami-Lee Ross is one of the four men charged by the Serious Fraud Office in the National Party donations case - alongside a Chinese community leader who reportedly gave $100,000 to the party, and two others. Name suppression for Ross and his co-accused Zhang Yikun, Zheng Shijia, ...
Almost a third of middle-aged New Zealanders have tried methamphetamine at least once, according to a new University of Otago, Christchurch study looking at the link between using the drug and violence in the general population. The study found those ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Theresa Larkin, Lecturer Medical Sciences, University of Wollongong Why don’t burns bleed? – from the year three and four students at Islington Public School in NSW Hello year three and four students – thanks for your excellent question! To ...
The report details an unannounced follow-up inspection, the first in a new phase of inspections of all 18 New Zealand prisons by the Office of the Inspectorate. This follows the first phase of inspections, where all prisons were inspected in a process ...
Netflix’s new release Horse Girl promised a quirky indie dramedy from its trailer. In reality, it’s a nightmarish time-warped look into the mind of a mental illness sufferer, writes Alice Webb-Liddall.There was a horse girl in every primary school classroom. The one with ballet flats and low ponytails and books ...
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Earmarked for big things since she left high school, the ‘Nothing to Regret’ singer has been dealing with the weight of expectations for a while now. With her debut EP just released, she’s OK with where she’s at.Given the circumstances, Robinson is surprisingly relaxed. It’s early afternoon on a swelteringly ...
By Meriba Tulo in Port Moresby Over the past month, the Autonomous Bougainville Government has made known its intention to put forward several proposed amendments to the Bougainville House of Representatives. These amendments include a provision to allow for a president to serve for more than two terms – ...
New Zealand’s Catholic bishops are concerned that unborn babies will lose their existing tenuous legal rights if Parliament passes the Abortion Legislation Bill in the form proposed by a select committee. And unborn babies with a fetal disability ...
Younger voters are being encouraged to take time now to make sure they are enrolled and ready to vote in this year’s election and referendums. The Electoral Commission’s enrolment teams will be at orientation events at universities, polytechnics and wānanga ...
FIRST Union’s Real Work Real Jobs campaign is expanding its focus to include ‘gig economy’ workers like Uber drivers and dependent contractors, with the public release of the union’s submission on the Government’s Better Protections for Contractors ...
Linda Burgess climbs the eternal staircase at the Opera House in Wellington to watch the virtuoso actor. At the interval her legs are aching. But in the second half, magic happens.There’s one person wearing a face mask, just the one, and it turns his face into a disposable nappy with ...
National Party leader Simon Bridges says the Serious Fraud Office investigation into the New Zealand First Foundation adds weight to calls for Winston Peters to be stood down. ...
Tutors at Northtec have begun strike action this week, action that will be disruptive for the institution and students. “Tutors never want to affect their students in negative ways, but they want their employer to show respect and put a decent pay ...
Dairy prices have fallen again in the latest global dairy auction, as the coronavirus outbreak takes its toll on trade. The average price at the overnight auction fell by almost 3 percent to $US3176 a tonne. Following a 4.7 percent fall at the previous auction two weeks ago, it was ...
Motorists are now able to offset their carbon emissions when they fuel up at Z Energy stations. A new feature in the Z app called Carbon Count will show drivers the carbon impact of each fill, then give them the option to offset that. There will be a per-fill option ...
Growth in bank sector profits stalled last year after years of seemingly unstoppable development. Business advisory firm KPMG's annual sector report showed the industry's collective profits fell just under 1 percent to $5.7 billion, with a growth in lending, while margins were squeezed slightly, costs rose markedly, and bad debts ...
After years of swearword-emblazoned book covers, are readers all out of fucks to give about bad language?Since Adam Mansbuch’s 2011 bestseller, Go the Fuck to Sleep, book titles have been swearing profusely to grab audience attention. The author followed up on the winning formula with You Have to Fucking Eat ...
Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters will keep his Ministerial portfolios as the Serious Fraud Office (SFO) investigates the New Zealand First Foundation. ...
Here's how the Government could force you to sell your house for state housing; and impact of drought, coronavirus could lead to recession - economist. ...
Editor’s Note: Here below is a list of the main issues currently under discussion in New Zealand and links to media coverage.New Zealand Parliament Buildings, Wellington, New Zealand.Today’s contentNZ First donations scandal Fran O’Sullivan (Herald): Jacinda Ardern right to let Winston Peters’ keep his head over donations ...
The Council of Licenced Firearms Owners is calling on Police Minister Stuart Nash to front up and explain, after releasing new figures showing that since 2011, Police employees have been caught 244 times for unauthorised use of confidential and sensitive ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stephen Duckett, Director, Health Program, Grattan Institute Young Australians are abandoning private health insurance in droves. And the overall decline in the percentage of the population with private coverage is continuing. New data for the three months to the end of 2019, ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Gregory Moore, Doctor of Botany, University of Melbourne As the brutal reality of climate change dawned this summer, you may have asked yourself a hard question: am I well-prepared to live in a warmer world? There are many ways we can ready ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Eva Plaganyi, Principal Research Scientist, CSIRO Currents are strong around the Torres Strait Islands, lying between Australia’s northern-most tip and Papua New Guinea. When the tidal conditions are right and the waters relatively still, though, up to 230 islanders – a sizeable ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jack Fahey, PhD Candidate, Department of Archaeology and History, La Trobe University General Motors has announced the Holden brand will be “retired” in 2021. This week’s announcement has been a long time coming. The Holden brand has been in a state of ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra An “unholy coalition” is attacking the planned increase in the superannuation guarantee, Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese says in his latest “vision statement”, pledging to resist any attempt to stop the legislated rise to 12% going ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tony Walker, Adjunct Professor, School of Communications, La Trobe University China’s ambassador to Australia, Cheng Jingye, let the cat out of the bag this week when he lambasted Canberra over its decision to exclude Huawei from the build-out of Australia’s 5G network. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Thami Croeser, Research Officer, Centre for Urban Research, RMIT University The idea that we should decentralise our population has come up many times in Australia. Recently, the National Farmers’ Federation president pushed the notion, calling for a shift to the regions. And ...
Good morning and welcome to The Bulletin. In today’s edition: Fresh developments around in the political donations saga, the Chinese ambassador speaks out, and some troubling poll numbers for advocates of cannabis law reform.The Serious Fraud Office is formally investigating the operations of the NZ First Foundation. The confirmation came in ...
ReadingRoom literary editor Steve Braunias interviews Dr Gwendoline Smith about how terrible it is to think too much.Certainly I overthink things, in the sense that I worry and fret and angst, but not in the sense that I actually think very deeply or intelligently. It’s more ...
A major report by the Auditor-General on how New Zealand's drinking, storm and waste waters are managed finds a conflicting, disorganised and stagnant system ill-prepared for climate change. Dileepa Fonseka reports. ...
Transforming diseases into foes and therapies into battles isn’t the best way to face contagion. Annemarie Jutel asks: When did panic and catastrophe help anyone organise anything? Public anxiety and nations’ responses to coronavirus (COVID-19) have been shaped by the hyperbolic metaphors surrounding its discussion. Even the usually sedate and measured ...
Overworked and stressed teachers, overcrowded classrooms and substandard nutrition have ECE at crisis point. ECE teacher Susan Bates explains why everyone should care. If you want to know what NZ society might look like in the future, look into the eyes of the young children in your neighbourhood. Ask yourself ...
The pressures on the state budget of a rapidly ageing population must be acknowledged, and treated holistically and with nuance, write Susan St John and Dr Claire Dale The latest three-yearly 2019 Retirement Incomes Review takes a refreshingly holistic view of retirement policy and is welcomed by the Retirement Policy and ...
Manchester City and the Houston Astros are latest inductees into the sports hall of shame. Dirty, rotten cheats. Calculated, cynical, premeditated, habitual, recidivist, despicable cheats. Committed cheats. Add Manchester City and the Houston Astros to a gallery of shame occupied for all eternity by Lance Armstrong, Marion Jones, Ben Johnson, ...
The 10-year-old girl from Tawa who cherished a cricket bat signed by her 2000 World Cup heroes, now wants to spur a new crop of cricketers through her own swashbuckling deeds. In a recent column looking ahead to the T20 World Cup starting in Australia this week, Sophie Devine wrote that she “hoped to inspire ...
The dreaded pea weevil is no more in the Wairarapa, after a successful eradication effort. So why does this matter? OK, what on earth is a pea weevil?It’s a type of leaf beetle, so not actually a weevil after all, but the name is the name. Basically it gets into pea ...
Controversial Australian philosopher Peter Singer is coming to New Zealand in June. While he believes in reducing suffering for all humans and animals, his views on disability have sparked widespread alarm and condemnation.Utilitarian and moral philosopher Peter Singer is best known by many for the parable of the drowning child, ...
Sharon Brettkelly gets a rare look at the internal workings of Immigration New Zealand - and we look at what's holding up visa applications. Immigration New Zealand's Henderson office is like any other, with rows of workers at their computers. But in this workplace the lives of tens of thousands ...
Alex Casey delivers her seventh power rankings for The Bachelorette NZ, where a group of intruders have herniated the competition’s intestines forever. Click here for previous instalments. Welcome back to The Bachelorette NZ, where everything is made up and every man is suddenly named Mike. Intruders! Five of them! A whole ...
By Felipe F. Salvosa II in Manila Solicitor-General Jose Calida asked the Supreme Court today to issue a gag order against ABS-CBN, claiming the Philippines’ largest television network was engaging in “propaganda” to sway the justices in the quo warranto case seeking to void its franchise. Calida filed the ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Karen R Fisher, Professor, Social Policy Research Centre, UNSW Access to the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) for young children with disability is not equal across Australia. Where you live can hinder access to information about disability support, assistance to apply for ...
The New Zealand Union of Students’ Associations applauds the changes to the Residential Tenancies Act released by the government yesterday but does not believe that they go far enough to improving the rights of renters. The power imbalance in the current ...
The Prime Minister will take no action against Deputy Prime Minister and New Zealand First leader Winston Peters, after confirmation of a Serious Fraud Office investigation. ...
Open mike 11/02/2020 
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All the talk about laws and regulations is all very well. But if the agencies that are tasked with ensuring compliance aren't funded and resourced, or worse, captured, then it all counts for shit. If a government just spent a term on making sure everything already on the books was actually being enforced, that would probably make more actual progress than a ton of inspirational ideas …
https://www.huffpost.com/highline/article/white-collar-crime/
+1 Totally agree.
If only we had that kind of scrutiny put onto our society.
Sure, we rank really high in lack of corruption.
But we are run by a handful of oligopolies, monopsonies and state monopolies. For some reason with two main supermarket chains we have massively expensive food compared to Australia. Same for petrol. Same for electricity. Same for phone and internet. Near-monopolies for primary and secondary education. Don't get me started about environemental regulation, or air and land transport regulation, or local government, or water pricing. Many other fields: mess and gradual decline, and corrosion to New Zealanders wealth, property, and happiness.
But without exacting and strong anti-competitive capacity, we have no one that brings the kind of fear that the ACCC does when it cracks the whip.
We argue endlessly about changing laws.
But if the agencies that are tasked with ensuring compliance aren't funded and resourced – and respected – well ……
We rank high in lack of perceived corruption.
But a lot of the laws and regulations that the wealthy and high-income put great effort into avoiding and evading in other jurisdictions aren't even on the books here. So no need to avoid and evade, just reap the benefits of fleecing easy targets.
Ain't that the bloody truthiness. Shame is that in NZ, it seems to have taken a while for the law and regulation makers to realise that some of the enforcers had been "captured" quite a while ago.
Well, watching Bryce Edwards talking to Duncan Garner just now, I'm thinking this donations saga could sink NZF. They were even talking about an early election.
Voters seem not to have liked King Shane, and NZF coming in at 3.5% in the latest poll puts them in vulnerable territory. If the SFO prosecutes, they may end up in the margin of error come the next poll.
Bryce reminded us that it is history repeating itself – NZF had a similar controversy way back, and the NZF foundation was established as internal reform from that. So it's a situation created by lawyers, for lawyers. Brian Henry's reputation is on the line…
What is the margin of error for the NZF poll result (i.e. 3.5%) in that poll, Dennis? You have a degree in Physics so you should know the answer.
Well I haven't checked that one – I was just going on the standard margin of error (+/- 3%). Given that social reality is created by mass perception, the popular perception that Seymour is likely to get one or two more ACT MPs into parliament has no basis in statistics but is influential nonetheless.
Same type of thinking applies to NZF, despite the confident assertion of pundits that history will repeat itself via Winston barnstorming it over the threshold as usual.
So I'm suggesting that a counter-narrative may emerge. NZF sinking into the margin of error may cause some of their support base to shift allegiance. That small group could become critical to the election outcome.
Well, I’d suggest you do check. By not checking and by perpetuating your unchecked statement that NZF could sink into the margin of error, you are not only following popular perception but you are feeding it too. This clumsy use of statistics whilst claiming that public perception has no basis in statistics is incredibly poor framing and sloppy narrative. But hey, I’m all for dumbing down public political discourse; it seems to be the preferred way.
I think you're missing the point. If that poll has a different margin of error, all it means is that the kind of people who take statistical measures of uncertainty seriously will think it is important. That group is so tiny that the political relevance of their collective opinion is negligible.
Most people assume that any political poll quoted in the media uses the standard margin of error. Social reality gets created by such mass perceptions. Not that I'm claiming most voters even think about such things! Quite the contrary. 🤨
Yes, we know you’re stubborn 😉
NZF polled at 3.6% in the latest Newshub-Reid Research poll.
The margin of error for NZF is about 1.16%.
You’re welcome.
Well Dennis, I will counter your counter-narrative by suggesting that the opposite may occur – whereby a group of voters (from across the left/right political spectrum) could also step into give one of their votes to NZF to ensure they remain as a centralist balance. I know a number of people who are considering exactly this.
The NZF party of today is a very different animal to the one that existed pre 2008 with Peters spending his time in the wilderness revamping the party into one supported by a much wider age range and range of views to that previously. Both Lprent and I have written here on TS on this many times over recent years.
Sure, Jonesy is a bit of a weak link but the other NZF MPs have been doing a very credible job in their various Ministerial roles and support roles – eg Tracey Martin and Ron Mark as well as Peters himself as Minister of Foreign Affairs.
We don't hear much of Fletcher Tabuteau, but IMO he, rather than Jonesy, is the one who is being groomed as the next leader as reflected in his roles not only as Deputy Leader, but also as understudy to both Peters and Jonesy as Parliamentary Under Secretary for Foreign Affairs and Parliamentary Under Secretary for Regional Economic Development.
An excellent response. All makes sense and I hope you're right. The public mood is fickle and I liken it to a river, in which you get eddies where the local flow sometimes runs up-stream (only in the vortices).
In that analogy the boulders in the river represent structural adjustments in social reality such as SFO investigations/prosecutions. They cause whirlpools in the overall flow.
So these narratives and counter-narratives are sub-groups large and small of the body politic, in which the river represents the meta-narrative (deep context). Some folks are more tribal than others, some more moral than others, some more strategic in their political thinking, some just reactive. Political motivations are always a potent brew that is fermenting!
The margin actually varies for each party.
Had a conversation with a polling expert a few years ago about that (which I can't find right now) but here is a similar point made concisely by one of NZ's leading scientists: https://sciblogs.co.nz/guestwork/2010/01/25/summer-of-stats-part-7-margins-of-error/#comment-30526
Stats professor Thomas Lumley adds even more detail – plus a handy graph that shows how it works in real historic political polls: https://www.statschat.org.nz/2014/07/02/whats-the-actual-margin-of-error/
If I could insert graphics in comments, I would put it here. https://www.statschat.org.nz/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/NZ_opinion_polls_2011-2014-majorparties.png
Exactly!
The quoted margin of error only applies to a poll result of 50%.
Still, people who should know better continue spreading misleading narrative and thus are helping to dumb down debate 🙁
I have done it myself before learning about the topic.
🙂
Some people refuse to learn for some strange reason!?
The MSM could make a tiny effort to educate their readers but they also seem to prefer to keep it simpler than as simple as possible.
Once you know that the usual 3.1% margin of error only applies to a party polling at 50% you cannot unknow it.
Some media people seem quite happy to unknow things that get in the way of a story. Declining professional standards and ethical vacuums..
Sadly true but here on The Standard we can offer a little light educational experience for those who don’t mind it 😉
" …you cannot unknow it "
Dunno about that. The topic has come up a number of times previously here at TS. Yet ISTR sometimes just a few weeks later, some people involved in those threads were again talking about parties 'falling below the margin of error'.
Or maybe they were just going for a wind-up.
My impression is that with some here they only have a cursory read of the OP and/or other comments before they dive in to give (it) their 2 cts.
In other words, they did not actually learn a thing and therefore cannot unknow it 😉
Your point is valid in all other cases though 😉
Just his opinion. Misinterpretation of stats has always been endemic. Amongst academics as much as others. I did pass the second year statistics exam at the University of Auckland, but that was in 1969 so I don't consider myself an authority. From your link:
"So what is a ‘margin of error’? It’s a measure of how accurately the results of a poll reflect the views of the whole ‘population’. In a political poll, the whole ’population’ means all potential voters. The margin of error tells you how confident you should be about drawing conclusions from the results."
That's exactly my grasp of the relevance of the margin of error. Application to a small-polling party in the manner described by others seems irrational. Voodoo, almost. But if someone can supply a rationale for this bizarre behaviour I'm open-minded & will give it due consideration.
Your opinion vs Shaun Hendy's. Hmmm, let me think..
Don't be guided by authority figures. That's always been the slippery slope to hell. Figure it out for yourself. Note how the paragraph I quoted outlines the rationale for interpretation. The margin of error is clearly specified as pertaining to the whole.
This provides no rational basis for inventing an entirely different margin of error to apply to individual political party ratings. Unless anyone can provide an accepted rationale for doing so, my advice to readers is to beware of attempts to con them with bullshit…
There's authority, then there's credibility. You did read the piece by Thomas Lumley? And as I said, an NZ polling expert told me exactly the same. I even worked up a result set graphically based on the numbers from one of his company's polls. Just need to track it down around the pesky day job that some of us have.
So if you aren't persuaded by a world-class physicist that routinely uses very sophisticated statistics for his day job, maybe you'll find a "How-to Guide for Dummies" from dummies.com more to your taste?
https://www.dummies.com/education/math/statistics/how-to-calculate-the-margin-of-error-for-a-sample-proportion/
No, because I graduated with a BSc in Physics, and statistics was part of the prescription. Specialisation, and the extent of relevance to the real world, of anyone who progresses further down that rabbit hole, cannot be generalised.
And that mathematical exposition you linked me to contains no relevant logic to the question at hand.
Now I'm intrigued.
Can you point us to anywhere that explains the frankomatho relevant to this situation?
Something about shadows on a cave wall, distant drums, the babble of children around a fire.
To my understanding a margin of area is used alongside a p-value to make it useful.
If a party gets 50% and a margin of error of 3.5%. And the p-value is 0.05. We can say, with 95% certainty (that 95/100 times), the party in question has between 46.5% and 53.5% support. So, even incorporating a margin of error, there is still room for error.
All the calculations should be performed for each party or the poll is a nonsense.
Also, the type of analysis is critical.
Yeah, it's all about interpretation. Media framing of the results does the rest. I think this red herring about different margins of error is only of technical interest. I haven't seen anyone make a case for it as an issue of substance. If they were capable, they would have done so. Then it would become a moral issue for broadcasters to get right…
@Dennis. A separate margin of error is crucial. A 3.5% margin of error on 3.5% support is considerably different to 3.5% on 50% support. The first is nonsense and does not belong with the data. You've got this point wrong by a considerable margin, even factoring in a wide margin of error.
No I did not! Your first statement makes sense, but my point was that the margin cited applies to the entire poll. That's how the media frame it to the people. When in Rome do as the Romans do!
My original point was that slipping down into that margin of error is likely to change a sufficient number of minds to affect identity politics polling & potentially the election result. Of course that will be largely dependent on any prosecution resulting and verdict.
OK, I get what you're saying but it wasn't clear. This is media error if only one margin of error is given for varying figures in the polls. This is bad form and should not be mimicked as it's entirely wrong. Possibly, as you allude to, a deliberate minimisation of (coalition) minor parties by media players – cos that's a thing.
Almost alternate facts, fudging with stats.
Huh????
Out of a couple of million marbles you pull 1,000 marbles and 36 (3.6%) of those are NZF marbles. How many NZF marbles are there in the total pool of marbles? With 95% confidence, 2.44 – 4.76%, and with 99% confidence, 2.08 – 5.12%.
Pearls, swine.
So. I guess we can say that if an election was held today there would be around a 99% chance that New Zealand First would be gone from Parliament. Your numbers would say that we have a 97.5% chance that NZF will be below 4.76% and 99.5% they will be below 5.12%.
Looks like a pretty good bet that Winnie would be gone to me.
And that is before his case was shot off to the SFO.
Well, that would be true if it were a genuinely random sample of those that would actually turn out to vote. But working out who is actually going to vote, how to contact a random sample of them, and ensuring supporters of different parties are all equally willing to answer questions is a bit harder than pulling marbles out of a jar.
Nope, but nice try 😉
Okay, let's try the moral angle. Polling companies feel constrained to provide the media with results on a sound moral basis, right?
So, if you & Hendry were right, the reports they supply, that the media corps pay for, would contain the specified different margins of error for each political party rated. Do they? Can you provide evidence?
https://www.colmarbrunton.co.nz/what-we-do/1-news-poll/
The morality stuff is off the mark, IMO.
Right, they don't specifically, but they do support Hendry's position on the issue. So when the media interpret a minor party as rating "below the margin of error" (and that is the sense in which I made my original comment), do you (& Hendry and others) tolerate the misrepresentation as normal/traditional rather than condemning them for unethical behaviour?
Bear with me on this, because any dispute on what's right and wrong with some aspect of social reality has a moral basis, eh?
That quote indeed supports Hendy and specifically includes the same numbers.
As I said before, MSM are not doing a good job IMO but it is irrelevant whether I or Hendy tolerate and/or condemn them for that. I pushed back on the demonstrable ignorance here, because I can. It is up to this site’s readers to educate themselves or stay ignorant. I can see no logical reason why one would be wilfully ignorant; fear does not seem to play a role in this, for example.
I don’t think this is primarily a moral issue but quite a simple one of correct versus incorrect use & interpretation of very basic statistics. It does raise an interesting point though as to how MSM and the general public deal/cope with really complex issues and Laws of Physics (physical constraints) when confronted with Climate Change. It is full of advanced modelling stats! Better not discuss that under this post though 😉
Edit: Oops! This is OM, duh!!
Applying the margin of error to smaller parties may well be more relevant for the simple fact that we have that 5% threshold. Applying the incorrect margin of error and digging in is highly irrational.
Based on the latest poll, we can say with 95% confidence that NZF falls below the 5% threshold (3.6 + 1.16 = 4.76%). However, 95% confidence is actually quite low because one in twenty times the true result will be outside the margin of error. If we want to be 99% confident the margin of error increases to 1.52%. In this case, we cannot exclude the possibility that NZF is above 5% (3.6 + 1.52 = 5.12%) and there’s a 1% (one in hundred) chance that the true value falls outside the boundaries of the margin of error.
These basic stats haven’t changed since 1969 and it is neither Voodoo nor bizarre.
That all reminds me why I decided back then that statistics was so tangential to real life that I had better things to do with my valuable time!
For the record, none of your reasoning seemed valid. Nothing personal. Just no logic and a bunch of abstract assertions…
I’m not taking it personal, rest assured. I’m just flabbergasted that you refuse to grasp the simple logic and sound reasoning based on foundational statistical concepts. If polls and their associated margins of errors are so tangential to real life and you have better things to do with your valuable time then why are you wasting all this time commenting on polls, which don’t mean a thing without the margin of error??
'Centrism', oft indistinguishable from trolling.
Your problem. Perception ain't reality. Centrists are typical of the public in many respects, and interpreting stats is one of those… 🙄
Embrace truthiness.
And shouldn't using this logic National's donations saga also sink its chances? If anything I would say National's behaviour was more blatant and more damaging to the integrity of the electoral system.
Yeah same logic does apply to those voters in whom the notions of fair play and ethical conduct drive their identity politics.
Tempting to read the slight downward drift in National's poll rating as due to that. But it all depends on official investigation outcomes. More people are influenced by authority than morality, and the establishment usually sanitises process and verdicts to produce the desired result. We saw that with Erebus. Official outcomes designed to protect the guilty are authoritative and an integral part of traditional democracy.
May even increase their vote. Seems to be a rightwing mindset that admires 'leaders' who get away with cheating – like Chump.
Well, that mindset exists, but I reckon only amongst those already committed politically. So I don't expect National to lift. I think the most likely outcome will be distaste amongst uncommitted voters who follow the news.
That group of centrists pays attention to what's going on, has a moral compass, and is likely to evaluate donations mishandling on their own common sense basis. Plenty will be guided by the traditional notion that `where there's smoke, there's fire' regardless of outcomes of investigations. Cover-ups cannot therefore be expected to succeed politically: often it only takes 3% of the electorate to determine an election outcome.
Not disagreeing, but isn't how the news is sold to the public important. Simon, nothing to see here. Winston, RESIGN!
You saw the voracious feral media at Jacinda's heels yesterday? Disgracefully obvious partisan pen pushers.
Shit, these details. I prefer the great ideas. What is possible versus what truth is and what the people need. I don't know that intriguing but do know what is good, like everyone.
On pollies running campaigns selling visions of things they will have precisely zero ability to actually implement …
https://www.vox.com/2020/2/10/21128617/sanders-biden-buttigieg-2020-democratic-primary-warren
Yes, it's about the US and the constraints imposed by multiple branches of divided government usually controlled by opposing parties. But the constraints imposed by NZ's MMP system are a similar handbrake on doing things here.
An almost unbelievable story we've barely blinked at. We might huff and puff for five minutes and say it's unacceptable but the reality is we're inured to this sort of behaviour:
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/119399862/hospital-failed-to-provide-proper-care-for-man-who-was-dumped-at-bus-stop-and-later-died
+1.
It's becoming quite common ( https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/409236/woman-dies-after-sub-optimal-care-following-blood-test-commissioner ) across DHBs.
People may have forgotten the "sub-optimal" treatment dished out in Waikato too.
Bean counter mentality. I've had good and bad experiences – the bad more recently after nearly a decade of the gNat's reign of terror
Worse than that, I've had far better treatment from a couple of different hospitals that are in a supposedly 3rd world country
To be fair, people in Chch were still pretty screwed up because of the earthquakes and it's not surprising that people lacked judgement after long terms stress. From research I've seen 2013 was the crunch year for people going through the earthquake (not 2011 as you would think).
I don't know what happened in this case … but in general alcoholics are very difficult to treat – being drunk and then in withdrawal can cloud what issues they have and can make the patient incredibly difficult to deal with.
Ditto … If a patient said they wanted to be discharged now (i.e. was craving alcohol), chose to leave in pyjamas and chose to go home by bus then what are the staff supposed to do? Imprison them? People are adults and are free to make bad choices but if they are competent then we have to let them make bad choices.
Ditto … if the patient came back to ED drunk and was aggressive towards the hospital staff then what are the staff supposed to do – just take it?
As I said – I don't know what happened in this case – the hospital staff could have been as appalling as the article says but, on the other hand, there are reasonable scenarios where they could have made all the right choices with the information they had at hand.
Nah … totally inured here. Auckland Hospital had multiple comprehensive goes at killing my father. Slack diagnosis, delayed admission, sent home twice, simple problem turns into a chronic one, I found him collapsed unsupervised in the ward toilet, medical staff who repeatedly refused to communicate with us, no consistent management plan, tense meetings with senior managers who then did the opposite of what the committed to in writing, eventually sent home with a canula still in his arm hidden under a bandage, nearly dies again from subsequent infection, readmitted and put on a totally inappropriate drug regime, nearly dies again … hell I can't remember all the details now. It went on for 10 months, five discharges and four re-admissions.
Eventually I realised the hospital system just didn't care, so we found a nursing home who admitted him and after 12 months of their excellent care he got well enough to go home again. That was 10 years ago.
It wasn't all bad, most of the time it was more tedious than dramatic, and I don't blame the individuals working in it; they usually looked overworked, under resourced and as much trapped by the system as the patients. In most cases it was clear they were doing their best as people. That was the frustrating part, there was never anyone to yell at, to hold accountable for the repeated failures.
After several years we finally extracted his complete medical file out of them. Pages and pages of rambling disconnected notes and jargon, there was no coherence or evidence of a plan, and none of the events that mattered were recorded. In the end we walked away from it; Dad was alive and even though his quality of life was permanently harmed, we figured we should be grateful for this and not make a misery of what we have left of his life fighting the system for years and years.
Having said this, I salute the people who followed up on Neil Jones’ appalling story. They will have a story so much longer and more aggravating than could be even outlined in this article. To get even this far is quite the accomplishment I would think.
A friend asked just yesterday in a social media post – where's the healthcare for healthcare workers. She's exhausted, they all are.
Here is the full HDC decision (which I have not read myself) behind that story: https://www.hdc.org.nz/decisions/search-decisions/2020/17hdc00497/
Yes, which answers mpledger's attempt to say that the staff's behaviour may have been appropriate in the circumstances.
They are usually detailed in their reasoning – but 7 years later is utterly taking the piss. That's not justice.
I read the report – the medical staff were clearly at fault but there were many people who tried to get him care – nurses, general public, orderlies – so I don't think it's fair to say we're inured to this type of behaviour.
I know of story after story of substandard care in Nelson hospital – so much that I'd be surprised if someone had a good experience. Feels like a deliberate strategy to drive people to private healthcare – for the lucky few who can pay.
I was at the A&E last week and saw a group of young guys come in, one was obviously in a extremely distressed mental state, I would say from the looks of it, from (bad) drug use.
An hour later I saw that they had been kicked out, they were still in the car park, the young man was quite obviously in a critically bad state, his mates were having a hard time managing him, I wanted t help, but had my own pressing emergency to take care of.
All I can assume is there was no provision at the hospital to deal that poor kid in that state, it was a for me just another sign of this countries drift to the selfish liberal end game, Ayn Rand would have approved.
Despite what I've written above, I can only side with the staff in this instance. Two of my in-laws are medical people and they've both been assaulted verbally and physically by out of control patients more times than they can be bothered counting. And when confronted with these situations, their first thought is for the welfare of other vulnerable patients being put at risk. It's a no win for everyone.
You are right, hospitals are not set up to deal with this people in that kind of state. They need to be dealt with separately in a different location and by staff trained to manage their challenges.
A padded drunk tank to sleep it off and trained psyche staff – that's how St Vinnies in Oz deal with that type of client.
The problem is that people with head injuries and people who are drunk have very similar symptoms so a lot of the time people can't be left to sleep if off.
" They need to be dealt with separately in a different location and by staff trained to manage their challenges. "
Exactly. And there are no such staff or facilities available. Zero. I have seen the exact situation described by AT myself. And know people turned away in that situation who then commited suicide or crimes.
And so even after seeing the HDC report do you still "side with the staff in this instance"?
That is my point, we live in a society where many people abuse drugs and alcohol regularly, you would think that we would have long ago made provisions to deal with the inevitable results..quite bizarre really when you think about it for a minute or two.
I agree with you that the hospital staff shouldn't be left to deal with the messy chaos that that type of abuse often results in.
You saw them in the carpark, or you saw them being kicked out?
Funny coincidental use of the term "critically bad".
If they're "critical" in the technical terminology, then they won't be disrupting the Ed department and can be treated. If they're disrupting ED, they're endangering the lives of other patients.
Now, there is an issue about providing healthcare to people in acute mental distress (not due to drugs/alcohol) vs providing that healthcare to people who are in that state due to drugs or alcohol – they might need to be held for their own safety and monitored, but ED is not the place for that. The police pick up drunks, but they're not really equipped for people who might be in danger of death – and sometimes people die in custody because of this.
Every so often there is talk of sort of an intermediate facility, where the people are monitored more closely and medical staff beyond basic first responders are available, but I'm not sure one has ever been established in NZ.
Yup. That makes total sense.
Courtesy of NewShub.
National MPs Nicky Wagner and David Carter retiring after election, Sarah Dowie will not contest Invercargill,
More rats and ships?
They seem to manage their 'refreshing' more smoothly than some other parties.
If you think getting tangled up in a sordid sex scandal that has pretty much ruined your parliamentary career counts as “refreshing” the line up then yeah sure…
Not sure having a re-selected MP resign is "smoothly"
Nobody seemed to dig into it much when Tony Ryall did the same..
Dowie is the one that was shagging the dodgy nutbar, isn't she?
Great judgement. Will be an asset in any future ventures.
I have a feeling the relevant word is 'dodgy', the rest is inconsequential.
Seven months to remove a lying political advert – the ASA is absolutely useless: https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/119414501/national-lose-appeal-over-facebook-ad-ruled-misleading
I find her general expectations totally reassuring, don't you? What a watchdog!
Beat me to it.
Just imagine the uproar if Labour or the Greens – or NZ First for that matter – left a misleading and mischievous ad running for seven months while waiting for the Authority's decision.
Not much point in a regulator that relies on parties being decent.
Well, there was the pledge card… and then Labour went and retrospectively changed the law so it was OK.
Wasn't that about the funding of it, not the content?
And Parliamentary Services had approved the spending as being lawful. The Auditor General of the day concluded it might not be lawful but he declined to order the money be returned to the parliamentary purse. Labour returned it anyway.
The Natty boys and girls do love false equivalences.
The pledge card? There's probably people voting this election who weren't even born when the righties first got their knickers in a twist over that "scandal".
From the "weird shit" files: Donny Dotard cultists are now claiming Romney voted to impeach to cover up his own connections to Burisma. Yes, this is actually happening.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/10/trump-romney-burisma-113401
If you aint with him, you're agin him. Burn the witch!
Vernon 'touchy' Tava is spending a lot on facebook ads. Today he's claiming a victory because a supermarket's addressing plastic – which has nothing to do with him and a lot to do with the work of his arch enemies – the Greens. Misleading, lying, fraudulent… I'd appreciate it if this cretin was scrutinised more closely by TS writers. Where is their money coming from? Does NZ need a party built solely as a personal vendetta. How many other women, other than my girl, has he put hands on in public?
Got to acknowledge his determination. No-one wants him so he starts his own party.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12285512
Yeah if he was altruistic he'd be interesting. As it stands he platforms on green bashing, and now claiming victory for green work. Seems vindictive and dishonest from here. And yeah, his facebook spend is not small I've seen half a dozen 'sponsored content' from the party so far, five bashing greens or greenpeace, and today's 'victory' post.
More bs from cnn.
Undecided are way ahead in New Hampshire: "Only about half of likely primary voters in New Hampshire say they have definitely decided for whom they will vote".
"Bernie Sanders holds on to his lead on the eve of New Hampshire's Democratic primary, the final CNN tracking poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center shows. In the final numbers, 29% of likely primary voters say they back Sanders, 22% back former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, 11% support former Vice President Joe Biden, 10% support Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren and 7% back Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar. The rest of the field falls at 5% or less."
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/10/politics/new-hampshire-poll/index.html
Bob Jones of to a s-s-s-s-stuttering start in his court case. Yesterday calls his own lawyer a goose for referring to him as Sir Jones, and today seems to have mis-placed his hearing aid!
A comedy of errors.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/119409179/oh-god-the-bloody-thing-is-gone-the-knight-and-the-missing-hearing-aid
I have no doubt that if Jonesie wasn't rich, this would all still be happening just the same. We have the best justice money can buy.
Senator Nina Turner gives a very good interview and makes some pertinent points on the so called " bernie bros "
Winston cut a coalition establishment deal for NZ First that gave them every opportunity to shine.
A billion dollars to ignite Provincial NZ. A launch ramp for Shane Jones to rise, the heir apparent.
That's a thousand million dollars, you'd think it would be enough to generate a 3rd page story about a young guy starting his apprenticeship, I'm not seeing them.
Do you need more money Shane, is a thousand million not enough?
Money is never the answer, it's a thing, solutions start with people and Earth.
Dear Mr Jones,
I understand you have lots of money earmarked to improve NZ. We've got a shortage of houses bro. Can you spend some of your money teaching lots of people to make houses please.
Yours in anticipation,
Vanbound
Kia Ora The Am Show.
Its good that Auckland City mission has opened a 15 beds safe whare for homeless Wahine.
That's is awesome A2 Milk donating 3 million to help fight the virus in Wuhan.
Everyone has been warned about the changes to our weather the effects of human cause climate change deniers is councils don't heed the good advice and end up in a mess.
We should treat Wai as a taonga use less for humans leave more for Our wild Wai environment.
Lloyd its cool that BP fuels Company has plans of changing to a carbon neutral company.
Yes there is to much high carbon footprint concrete in the World we need to use more engineered wood products that actually stores carbon to replace concrete were we can.
We do have to make big cuts to Aotearoa carbon footprint Transport =Electric vehicles Farming = minimise Wai use Organic food products and minimise methane products plant trees in the correct place.
Ka kite Ano
Kia Ora Newshub.
That's is cool 1000 new emergency houses and investing 300 million in providing service to the needs of homeless people.
Ka kite Ano
Kia Ora Te Ao Maori News.
That's awesome 24 million to target tangata whenua homeless people.
I think that the tangata in Maori home lands rual comunitys should be preparing for their whanau to come home.
This case of the rich man vs Wahine tangata whenua answers a question I have asked my self with the rich mans supporters.
Ka kite Ano
Kia Ora The Am Show.
We have had extreme weather events all around the Papatuanuku and still the human cause climate change deniers spin their lies.
That's was just a bit of Maori humour the photo thing.
The economy and tax take grows under a Labour lead government.
Decades ago does seem like yesterday.?????
Good on Adele for losing weight.
Ka kite Ano