All the talk about laws and regulations is all very well. But if the agencies that are tasked with ensuring compliance aren't funded and resourced, or worse, captured, then it all counts for shit. If a government just spent a term on making sure everything already on the books was actually being enforced, that would probably make more actual progress than a ton of inspirational ideas …
If only we had that kind of scrutiny put onto our society.
Sure, we rank really high in lack of corruption.
But we are run by a handful of oligopolies, monopsonies and state monopolies. For some reason with two main supermarket chains we have massively expensive food compared to Australia. Same for petrol. Same for electricity. Same for phone and internet. Near-monopolies for primary and secondary education. Don't get me started about environemental regulation, or air and land transport regulation, or local government, or water pricing. Many other fields: mess and gradual decline, and corrosion to New Zealanders wealth, property, and happiness.
But without exacting and strong anti-competitive capacity, we have no one that brings the kind of fear that the ACCC does when it cracks the whip.
We argue endlessly about changing laws.
But if the agencies that are tasked with ensuring compliance aren't funded and resourced – and respected – well ……
But a lot of the laws and regulations that the wealthy and high-income put great effort into avoiding and evading in other jurisdictions aren't even on the books here. So no need to avoid and evade, just reap the benefits of fleecing easy targets.
Ain't that the bloody truthiness. Shame is that in NZ, it seems to have taken a while for the law and regulation makers to realise that some of the enforcers had been "captured" quite a while ago.
Well, watching Bryce Edwards talking to Duncan Garner just now, I'm thinking this donations saga could sink NZF. They were even talking about an early election.
Voters seem not to have liked King Shane, and NZF coming in at 3.5% in the latest poll puts them in vulnerable territory. If the SFO prosecutes, they may end up in the margin of error come the next poll.
Bryce reminded us that it is history repeating itself – NZF had a similar controversy way back, and the NZF foundation was established as internal reform from that. So it's a situation created by lawyers, for lawyers. Brian Henry's reputation is on the line…
Well I haven't checked that one – I was just going on the standard margin of error (+/- 3%). Given that social reality is created by mass perception, the popular perception that Seymour is likely to get one or two more ACT MPs into parliament has no basis in statistics but is influential nonetheless.
Same type of thinking applies to NZF, despite the confident assertion of pundits that history will repeat itself via Winston barnstorming it over the threshold as usual.
So I'm suggesting that a counter-narrative may emerge. NZF sinking into the margin of error may cause some of their support base to shift allegiance. That small group could become critical to the election outcome.
Well, I’d suggest you do check. By not checking and by perpetuating your unchecked statement that NZF could sink into the margin of error, you are not only following popular perception but you are feeding it too. This clumsy use of statistics whilst claiming that public perception has no basis in statistics is incredibly poor framing and sloppy narrative. But hey, I’m all for dumbing down public political discourse; it seems to be the preferred way.
I think you're missing the point. If that poll has a different margin of error, all it means is that the kind of people who take statistical measures of uncertainty seriously will think it is important. That group is so tiny that the political relevance of their collective opinion is negligible.
Most people assume that any political poll quoted in the media uses the standard margin of error. Social reality gets created by such mass perceptions. Not that I'm claiming most voters even think about such things! Quite the contrary. 🤨
Well Dennis, I will counter your counter-narrative by suggesting that the opposite may occur – whereby a group of voters (from across the left/right political spectrum) could also step into give one of their votes to NZF to ensure they remain as a centralist balance. I know a number of people who are considering exactly this.
The NZF party of today is a very different animal to the one that existed pre 2008 with Peters spending his time in the wilderness revamping the party into one supported by a much wider age range and range of views to that previously. Both Lprent and I have written here on TS on this many times over recent years.
Sure, Jonesy is a bit of a weak link but the other NZF MPs have been doing a very credible job in their various Ministerial roles and support roles – eg Tracey Martin and Ron Mark as well as Peters himself as Minister of Foreign Affairs.
We don't hear much of Fletcher Tabuteau, but IMO he, rather than Jonesy, is the one who is being groomed as the next leader as reflected in his roles not only as Deputy Leader, but also as understudy to both Peters and Jonesy as Parliamentary Under Secretary for Foreign Affairs and Parliamentary Under Secretary for Regional Economic Development.
An excellent response. All makes sense and I hope you're right. The public mood is fickle and I liken it to a river, in which you get eddies where the local flow sometimes runs up-stream (only in the vortices).
In that analogy the boulders in the river represent structural adjustments in social reality such as SFO investigations/prosecutions. They cause whirlpools in the overall flow.
So these narratives and counter-narratives are sub-groups large and small of the body politic, in which the river represents the meta-narrative (deep context). Some folks are more tribal than others, some more moral than others, some more strategic in their political thinking, some just reactive. Political motivations are always a potent brew that is fermenting!
I suspect the uncertainty analysis used in sampling theory is based on the binomial distribution. If that’s the case then the “margin of error” is roughly two standard deviations giving (a 95% confidence interval) *if* there are two parties with close to 50% support each.
But really the margin of error shouldn’t apply to the poll itself – rather a seperate margin of error should be applied to each party’s level of support.
So if in a poll of 1000 people, the Nats poll 50% support, we would estimate a margin of error of 3.1% in their support.
However if the Greens poll 5% support in the same poll, we would estimate a margin of error of only 1.4% (i.e. 2 sqrt(p(1-p)/n) where p is the true level of support, estimated here by the sample statistic, and n is the sample size).
Dunno about that. The topic has come up a number of times previously here at TS. Yet ISTR sometimes just a few weeks later, some people involved in those threads were again talking about parties 'falling below the margin of error'.
Just his opinion. Misinterpretation of stats has always been endemic. Amongst academics as much as others. I did pass the second year statistics exam at the University of Auckland, but that was in 1969 so I don't consider myself an authority. From your link:
"So what is a ‘margin of error’? It’s a measure of how accurately the results of a poll reflect the views of the whole ‘population’. In a political poll, the whole ’population’ means all potential voters. The margin of error tells you how confident you should be about drawing conclusions from the results."
That's exactly my grasp of the relevance of the margin of error. Application to a small-polling party in the manner described by others seems irrational. Voodoo, almost. But if someone can supply a rationale for this bizarre behaviour I'm open-minded & will give it due consideration.
Don't be guided by authority figures. That's always been the slippery slope to hell. Figure it out for yourself. Note how the paragraph I quoted outlines the rationale for interpretation. The margin of error is clearly specified as pertaining to the whole.
This provides no rational basis for inventing an entirely different margin of error to apply to individual political party ratings. Unless anyone can provide an accepted rationale for doing so, my advice to readers is to beware of attempts to con them with bullshit…
There's authority, then there's credibility. You did read the piece by Thomas Lumley? And as I said, an NZ polling expert told me exactly the same. I even worked up a result set graphically based on the numbers from one of his company's polls. Just need to track it down around the pesky day job that some of us have.
So if you aren't persuaded by a world-class physicist that routinely uses very sophisticated statistics for his day job, maybe you'll find a "How-to Guide for Dummies" from dummies.com more to your taste?
No, because I graduated with a BSc in Physics, and statistics was part of the prescription. Specialisation, and the extent of relevance to the real world, of anyone who progresses further down that rabbit hole, cannot be generalised.
And that mathematical exposition you linked me to contains no relevant logic to the question at hand.
To my understanding a margin of area is used alongside a p-value to make it useful.
If a party gets 50% and a margin of error of 3.5%. And the p-value is 0.05. We can say, with 95% certainty (that 95/100 times), the party in question has between 46.5% and 53.5% support. So, even incorporating a margin of error, there is still room for error.
All the calculations should be performed for each party or the poll is a nonsense.
Yeah, it's all about interpretation. Media framing of the results does the rest. I think this red herring about different margins of error is only of technical interest. I haven't seen anyone make a case for it as an issue of substance. If they were capable, they would have done so. Then it would become a moral issue for broadcasters to get right…
@Dennis. A separate margin of error is crucial. A 3.5% margin of error on 3.5% support is considerably different to 3.5% on 50% support. The first is nonsense and does not belong with the data. You've got this point wrong by a considerable margin, even factoring in a wide margin of error.
No I did not! Your first statement makes sense, but my point was that the margin cited applies to the entire poll. That's how the media frame it to the people. When in Rome do as the Romans do!
My original point was that slipping down into that margin of error is likely to change a sufficient number of minds to affect identity politics polling & potentially the election result. Of course that will be largely dependent on any prosecution resulting and verdict.
OK, I get what you're saying but it wasn't clear. This is media error if only one margin of error is given for varying figures in the polls. This is bad form and should not be mimicked as it's entirely wrong. Possibly, as you allude to, a deliberate minimisation of (coalition) minor parties by media players – cos that's a thing.
This provides no rational basis for inventing an entirely different margin of error to apply to individual political party ratings.
Huh????
Out of a couple of million marbles you pull 1,000 marbles and 36 (3.6%) of those are NZF marbles. How many NZF marbles are there in the total pool of marbles? With 95% confidence, 2.44 – 4.76%, and with 99% confidence, 2.08 – 5.12%.
So. I guess we can say that if an election was held today there would be around a 99% chance that New Zealand First would be gone from Parliament. Your numbers would say that we have a 97.5% chance that NZF will be below 4.76% and 99.5% they will be below 5.12%.
Looks like a pretty good bet that Winnie would be gone to me.
And that is before his case was shot off to the SFO.
Well, that would be true if it were a genuinely random sample of those that would actually turn out to vote. But working out who is actually going to vote, how to contact a random sample of them, and ensuring supporters of different parties are all equally willing to answer questions is a bit harder than pulling marbles out of a jar.
Okay, let's try the moral angle. Polling companies feel constrained to provide the media with results on a sound moral basis, right?
So, if you & Hendry were right, the reports they supply, that the media corps pay for, would contain the specified different margins of error for each political party rated. Do they? Can you provide evidence?
What is the margin of error of the results?
The maximum sampling error is approximately ± 3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level. This is the sampling error for a result around 50%. Results higher and lower than 50% have a smaller sampling error. For example, results around 10% and 5% have sampling errors of approximately ±1.9%-points and ±1.4%-points respectively at the 95% confidence level.
Right, they don't specifically, but they do support Hendry's position on the issue. So when the media interpret a minor party as rating "below the margin of error" (and that is the sense in which I made my original comment), do you (& Hendry and others) tolerate the misrepresentation as normal/traditional rather than condemning them for unethical behaviour?
Bear with me on this, because any dispute on what's right and wrong with some aspect of social reality has a moral basis, eh?
That quote indeed supports Hendy and specifically includes the same numbers.
As I said before, MSM are not doing a good job IMO but it is irrelevant whether I or Hendy tolerate and/or condemn them for that. I pushed back on the demonstrable ignorance here, because I can. It is up to this site’s readers to educate themselves or stay ignorant. I can see no logical reason why one would be wilfully ignorant; fear does not seem to play a role in this, for example.
I don’t think this is primarily a moral issue but quite a simple one of correct versus incorrect use & interpretation of very basic statistics. It does raise an interesting point though as to how MSM and the general public deal/cope with really complex issues and Laws of Physics (physical constraints) when confronted with Climate Change. It is full of advanced modelling stats! Better not discuss that under this post though 😉
Applying the margin of error to smaller parties may well be more relevant for the simple fact that we have that 5% threshold. Applying the incorrect margin of error and digging in is highly irrational.
Based on the latest poll, we can say with 95% confidence that NZF falls below the 5% threshold (3.6 + 1.16 = 4.76%). However, 95% confidence is actually quite low because one in twenty times the true result will be outside the margin of error. If we want to be 99% confident the margin of error increases to 1.52%. In this case, we cannot exclude the possibility that NZF is above 5% (3.6 + 1.52 = 5.12%) and there’s a 1% (one in hundred) chance that the true value falls outside the boundaries of the margin of error.
These basic stats haven’t changed since 1969 and it is neither Voodoo nor bizarre.
I’m not taking it personal, rest assured. I’m just flabbergasted that you refuse to grasp the simple logic and sound reasoning based on foundational statistical concepts. If polls and their associated margins of errors are so tangential to real life and you have better things to do with your valuable time then why are you wasting all this time commenting on polls, which don’t mean a thing without the margin of error??
And shouldn't using this logic National's donations saga also sink its chances? If anything I would say National's behaviour was more blatant and more damaging to the integrity of the electoral system.
Yeah same logic does apply to those voters in whom the notions of fair play and ethical conduct drive their identity politics.
Tempting to read the slight downward drift in National's poll rating as due to that. But it all depends on official investigation outcomes. More people are influenced by authority than morality, and the establishment usually sanitises process and verdicts to produce the desired result. We saw that with Erebus. Official outcomes designed to protect the guilty are authoritative and an integral part of traditional democracy.
Well, that mindset exists, but I reckon only amongst those already committed politically. So I don't expect National to lift. I think the most likely outcome will be distaste amongst uncommitted voters who follow the news.
That group of centrists pays attention to what's going on, has a moral compass, and is likely to evaluate donations mishandling on their own common sense basis. Plenty will be guided by the traditional notion that `where there's smoke, there's fire' regardless of outcomes of investigations. Cover-ups cannot therefore be expected to succeed politically: often it only takes 3% of the electorate to determine an election outcome.
Shit, these details. I prefer the great ideas. What is possible versus what truth is and what the people need. I don't know that intriguing but do know what is good, like everyone.
Yes, it's about the US and the constraints imposed by multiple branches of divided government usually controlled by opposing parties. But the constraints imposed by NZ's MMP system are a similar handbrake on doing things here.
An almost unbelievable story we've barely blinked at. We might huff and puff for five minutes and say it's unacceptable but the reality is we're inured to this sort of behaviour:
To be fair, people in Chch were still pretty screwed up because of the earthquakes and it's not surprising that people lacked judgement after long terms stress. From research I've seen 2013 was the crunch year for people going through the earthquake (not 2011 as you would think).
I don't know what happened in this case … but in general alcoholics are very difficult to treat – being drunk and then in withdrawal can cloud what issues they have and can make the patient incredibly difficult to deal with.
Ditto … If a patient said they wanted to be discharged now (i.e. was craving alcohol), chose to leave in pyjamas and chose to go home by bus then what are the staff supposed to do? Imprison them? People are adults and are free to make bad choices but if they are competent then we have to let them make bad choices.
Ditto … if the patient came back to ED drunk and was aggressive towards the hospital staff then what are the staff supposed to do – just take it?
As I said – I don't know what happened in this case – the hospital staff could have been as appalling as the article says but, on the other hand, there are reasonable scenarios where they could have made all the right choices with the information they had at hand.
Nah … totally inured here. Auckland Hospital had multiple comprehensive goes at killing my father. Slack diagnosis, delayed admission, sent home twice, simple problem turns into a chronic one, I found him collapsed unsupervised in the ward toilet, medical staff who repeatedly refused to communicate with us, no consistent management plan, tense meetings with senior managers who then did the opposite of what the committed to in writing, eventually sent home with a canula still in his arm hidden under a bandage, nearly dies again from subsequent infection, readmitted and put on a totally inappropriate drug regime, nearly dies again … hell I can't remember all the details now. It went on for 10 months, five discharges and four re-admissions.
Eventually I realised the hospital system just didn't care, so we found a nursing home who admitted him and after 12 months of their excellent care he got well enough to go home again. That was 10 years ago.
It wasn't all bad, most of the time it was more tedious than dramatic, and I don't blame the individuals working in it; they usually looked overworked, under resourced and as much trapped by the system as the patients. In most cases it was clear they were doing their best as people. That was the frustrating part, there was never anyone to yell at, to hold accountable for the repeated failures.
After several years we finally extracted his complete medical file out of them. Pages and pages of rambling disconnected notes and jargon, there was no coherence or evidence of a plan, and none of the events that mattered were recorded. In the end we walked away from it; Dad was alive and even though his quality of life was permanently harmed, we figured we should be grateful for this and not make a misery of what we have left of his life fighting the system for years and years.
Having said this, I salute the people who followed up on Neil Jones’ appalling story. They will have a story so much longer and more aggravating than could be even outlined in this article. To get even this far is quite the accomplishment I would think.
I read the report – the medical staff were clearly at fault but there were many people who tried to get him care – nurses, general public, orderlies – so I don't think it's fair to say we're inured to this type of behaviour.
I know of story after story of substandard care in Nelson hospital – so much that I'd be surprised if someone had a good experience. Feels like a deliberate strategy to drive people to private healthcare – for the lucky few who can pay.
I was at the A&E last week and saw a group of young guys come in, one was obviously in a extremely distressed mental state, I would say from the looks of it, from (bad) drug use.
An hour later I saw that they had been kicked out, they were still in the car park, the young man was quite obviously in a critically bad state, his mates were having a hard time managing him, I wanted t help, but had my own pressing emergency to take care of.
All I can assume is there was no provision at the hospital to deal that poor kid in that state, it was a for me just another sign of this countries drift to the selfish liberal end game, Ayn Rand would have approved.
Despite what I've written above, I can only side with the staff in this instance. Two of my in-laws are medical people and they've both been assaulted verbally and physically by out of control patients more times than they can be bothered counting. And when confronted with these situations, their first thought is for the welfare of other vulnerable patients being put at risk. It's a no win for everyone.
You are right, hospitals are not set up to deal with this people in that kind of state. They need to be dealt with separately in a different location and by staff trained to manage their challenges.
The problem is that people with head injuries and people who are drunk have very similar symptoms so a lot of the time people can't be left to sleep if off.
" They need to be dealt with separately in a different location and by staff trained to manage their challenges. "
Exactly. And there are no such staff or facilities available. Zero. I have seen the exact situation described by AT myself. And know people turned away in that situation who then commited suicide or crimes.
That is my point, we live in a society where many people abuse drugs and alcohol regularly, you would think that we would have long ago made provisions to deal with the inevitable results..quite bizarre really when you think about it for a minute or two.
I agree with you that the hospital staff shouldn't be left to deal with the messy chaos that that type of abuse often results in.
Funny coincidental use of the term "critically bad".
If they're "critical" in the technical terminology, then they won't be disrupting the Ed department and can be treated. If they're disrupting ED, they're endangering the lives of other patients.
Now, there is an issue about providing healthcare to people in acute mental distress (not due to drugs/alcohol) vs providing that healthcare to people who are in that state due to drugs or alcohol – they might need to be held for their own safety and monitored, but ED is not the place for that. The police pick up drunks, but they're not really equipped for people who might be in danger of death – and sometimes people die in custody because of this.
Every so often there is talk of sort of an intermediate facility, where the people are monitored more closely and medical staff beyond basic first responders are available, but I'm not sure one has ever been established in NZ.
If you think getting tangled up in a sordid sex scandal that has pretty much ruined your parliamentary career counts as “refreshing” the line up then yeah sure…
Complainant Adam Currie said it had taken far too long for the decision to happen, meaning the ad was live for seven months.
"I made the complaint in July last year – the original decision was not made until the September 9, and now the ASA is finally forcing the advertiser to remove the ad – after it's had seven months to mislead the public," Currie said.
"By this timeline, an ad reported today would be allowed to run until the beginning of advance voting for this year's election."
"It's shameful to allow the public to be misled for so long, but it's important that people are aware that National is putting out ads that are factually misleading."
ASA chair Hilary Souter told Stuff the body generally expected ads to be removed during the appeal process if a complaint was upheld against them.
I find her general expectations totally reassuring, don't you? What a watchdog!
Just imagine the uproar if Labour or the Greens – or NZ First for that matter – left a misleading and mischievous ad running for seven months while waiting for the Authority's decision.
And Parliamentary Services had approved the spending as being lawful. The Auditor General of the day concluded it might not be lawful but he declined to order the money be returned to the parliamentary purse. Labour returned it anyway.
The Natty boys and girls do love false equivalences.
The pledge card? There's probably people voting this election who weren't even born when the righties first got their knickers in a twist over that "scandal".
From the "weird shit" files: Donny Dotard cultists are now claiming Romney voted to impeach to cover up his own connections to Burisma. Yes, this is actually happening.
Vernon 'touchy' Tava is spending a lot on facebook ads. Today he's claiming a victory because a supermarket's addressing plastic – which has nothing to do with him and a lot to do with the work of his arch enemies – the Greens. Misleading, lying, fraudulent… I'd appreciate it if this cretin was scrutinised more closely by TS writers. Where is their money coming from? Does NZ need a party built solely as a personal vendetta. How many other women, other than my girl, has he put hands on in public?
Yeah if he was altruistic he'd be interesting. As it stands he platforms on green bashing, and now claiming victory for green work. Seems vindictive and dishonest from here. And yeah, his facebook spend is not small I've seen half a dozen 'sponsored content' from the party so far, five bashing greens or greenpeace, and today's 'victory' post.
Undecided are way ahead in New Hampshire: "Only about half of likely primary voters in New Hampshire say they have definitely decided for whom they will vote".
Bob Jones of to a s-s-s-s-stuttering start in his court case. Yesterday calls his own lawyer a goose for referring to him as Sir Jones, and today seems to have mis-placed his hearing aid!
Winston cut a coalition establishment deal for NZ First that gave them every opportunity to shine.
A billion dollars to ignite Provincial NZ. A launch ramp for Shane Jones to rise, the heir apparent.
That's a thousand million dollars, you'd think it would be enough to generate a 3rd page story about a young guy starting his apprenticeship, I'm not seeing them.
Do you need more money Shane, is a thousand million not enough?
Money is never the answer, it's a thing, solutions start with people and Earth.
I understand you have lots of money earmarked to improve NZ. We've got a shortage of houses bro. Can you spend some of your money teaching lots of people to make houses please.
Its good that Auckland City mission has opened a 15 beds safe whare for homeless Wahine.
That's is awesome A2 Milk donating 3 million to help fight the virus in Wuhan.
Everyone has been warned about the changes to our weather the effects of human cause climate change deniers is councils don't heed the good advice and end up in a mess.
We should treat Wai as a taonga use less for humans leave more for Our wild Wai environment.
Lloyd its cool that BP fuels Company has plans of changing to a carbon neutral company.
Yes there is to much high carbon footprint concrete in the World we need to use more engineered wood products that actually stores carbon to replace concrete were we can.
We do have to make big cuts to Aotearoa carbon footprint Transport =Electric vehicles Farming = minimise Wai use Organic food products and minimise methane products plant trees in the correct place.
This video includes conclusions of the creator climate scientist Dr. Adam Levy. It is presented to our readers as an informed perspective. Please see video description for references (if any). Climate change is everywhere. And when something's everywhere it can feel like it's nowhere. So how do we get our heads ...
Its a law like gravity: whenever a right-wing government is elected, they start attacking democracy. And now, after talking to their Republican and Tory and Fidesz chums at the International Democracy Union forum in Wellington, National is doing it here, announcing plans to remove election-day enrolment. Or, to put it ...
Yesterday Winston Peters focussed his attention on the important matter at hand. Tweeting. Like the former, and quite possibly next, orange POTUS, from whom he takes much of his political strategy, Winston is an avid X’er.His message didn’t resemble an historic address this time. In fact it was more reminiscent ...
Buzz from the Beehive A significant decline in natural gas production has given Resources Minister Shane Jones an opportunity to reiterate his enthusiasm for the mining and burning of coal. For good measure, he has praised an announcement from Genesis Energy that it will resume importing coal. He and Energy ...
“Follow the money” is the classic directive to journalists trying to understand where power and influence lie in society. In terms of uncovering who influences various New Zealand political parties and governments, it therefore pays to look at who is funding them. The political parties are legally obliged to make ...
Rob MacCullough writes – Here is my subjective ranking on a “most-left” to “most-right” scale of most of our major NZ Universities, with some anecdotal (and at times amusing) evidence to back up the claim.Extreme Left Auckland University of TechnologyEvidenceThe ...
Eric Crampton writes – I hadn’t thought about this one until a helpful email showed up in my inbox.It’s pretty obvious that income tax thresholds should automatically index with inflation – whether to anchor the thresholds in percentiles of the income distribution, or to anchor against a real ...
Jacqui Van Der Kaay writes – Parliament’s speaker had no option but to refer Green MP Julie Anne Genter to the Privileges Committee for her behaviour in the House last Wednesday evening. The incident, in which she crossed the floor to wave a book and yell at National ...
Gary Judd writes – The Dean of the law school at the Auckland University of Technology is someone called Khylee Quince. I have been sent her social media posting in which she has, over the LawNews headline “Senior King’s Counsel files complaint about compulsory tikanga Maori studies for ...
Cleo Paskal writes – WASHINGTON, D.C.: ‘Many of us have received phone calls from [the opposing camp] telling them if they join the camp they will be given projects for their wards and $300,000 [around US$35,000] each’, says former Malaita Premier Daniel Suidani. The elections in Solomon Islands aren’t ...
With hindsight, it was inevitable that (a) Hamas would agree to the ceasefire deal brokered by Egypt and Qatar and that ( b) Israel would then immediately launch attacks on Rafah, regardless. We might have hoped the concessions made by Hamas would cause Israel to desist from slaughtering thousands more ...
Placards and mourners outside the Kilbirnie Mosque following the Christchurch terror attack: MSD has terminated the Kaiwhakaoranga service, which has been used by 415 families since the attacks. Photo: Lynn GrievesonTL;DR: The Government’s pledge to only cut ‘back office’ staff rather than ‘frontline’ services is on increasingly shaky ground, with ...
There’s been a few smaller public transport announcements over the last week or so that I thought I’d cover in a single post. Fareshare I’ve long called for Auckland Transport to offer a way to enable employer-subsidised public transport options. The need for this took on even more importance ...
Parliament’s speaker had no option but to refer Green MP Julie Anne Genter to the Privileges Committee for her behaviour in the House last Wednesday evening. The incident, in which she crossed the floor to wave a book and yell at National Minister Matt Doocey, reflects poorly on Genter and ...
On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a ...
Who likes being sneered at? Nobody. Worse yet, when the sneerer has their facts all wrong, and might well be an idiot.The sneer in question is The adults are in charge now, and it is a sneer offered in retort to criticism of this new Government, no matter how well ...
When in government, Labour pushed to extend the Parliamentary term to four years, to reduce accountability and our ability to vote out a bad government. And now, they're trying to do it through the member's ballot, with a Four-Year Parliamentary Term Legislation Bill. The bill at least requires a referendum ...
A ballot for a single Member's Bill was held today, and the following bill was drawn: Public Works (Prohibition of Compulsory Acquisition of Māori Land) Amendment Bill (Hūhana Lyndon) The bill would prevent the government from stealing Māori land in breach of Te Tiriti o Waitangi. It ...
Simeon Brown, alongside Wayne Brown, is favouring a political figleaf now in exchange for loading up tens of millions in extra interest costs on Auckland ratepayers. Photo: Lynn GrievesonTL;DR: Ratings agency Standard & Poor’s is pushing back hard at suggestions from Local Government Minister Simeon Brown and Mayor Wayne Brown ...
Buzz from the Beehive One headline-grabber from the Beehive yesterday was the OECD’s advice that the government must bring the Budget deficit under control or face higher interest rates. Another was the announcement of a $1.9 billion “investment” in Corrections over the next four years. In the best interests of ...
Chris Trotter writes – Had Zheng He’s fleet sailed east, not west, in the early Fifteenth Century, how different our world would be. There is little reason to suppose that the sea-going junks of the Ming Dynasty, among the largest and most sophisticated sailing vessels ever constructed, would have failed ...
David Farrar writes – Two articles give a useful contrast in balance. Both seek to be neutral explainer articles. This one in the Herald on Social Investment covers the pros and cons nicely. It links to critical pieces and talks about aspects that failed and aspects that are more ...
The tikanga regulations will compel law students to be taught that a system which does not conform with the rule of law is nevertheless law which should be observed and applied…Gary Judd KC writes – I have made a complaint to Parliament’s Regulation ...
The future of Te Huia, the train between Hamilton and Auckland, has been getting a lot of attention recently as current funding for it is only in place till the end of June. The government initially agreed to a five year trial, through to April 2026, but that was subject ...
TL;DR: Hamas has just agreed to Israel’s ceasefire plan. Nelson hospital’s rebuild has been cut back to save money. The OECD suggests New Zealand break up network monopolies, including in electricity. PM Christopher Luxon’s news conference on a prison expansion announcement last night was his messiest yet.Here’s my top six ...
A homicide in Ponsonby, a manhunt with a killer on the run. The nation’s leader stands before a press conference reassuring a frightened nation that he’ll sort it out, he’ll keep them safe, he’ll build some new prison spaces.Sorry what? There’s a scary dude on the run with a gun ...
Hi,I know it’s been awhile since there’s been any Webworm merch — and today that all changes!Over the last four months, I’ve been working with New Zealand artist Jess Johnson to create a series of t-shirts, caps and stickers that are infused with Webworm DNA — and as of right ...
The OECD’s chief economist yesterday laid it on the line for the new Government: bring the deficit under control or face higher Reserve Bank interest rates for longer. And to bring the deficit under control, she meant not borrowing for tax cuts. But there was more. Without policy changes—introducing a ...
After a hiatus of over four months Selwyn Manning and I finally got it together to re-start the “A View from Afar” podcast series. We shall see how we go but aim to do 2 episodes per month if possible. … Continue reading → ...
In 2008, the UK Parliament passed the Climate Change Act 2008. The law established a system of targets, budgets, and plans, with inbuilt accountability mechanisms; the aim was to break the cycle of empty promises and replace it with actual progress towards emissions reduction. The law was passed with near-universal ...
Buzz from the Beehive Local Water Done Well – let’s be blunt – is a silly name, but the first big initiative to put it into practice has gone done well. This success is reflected in the headline on an RNZ report:District mayors welcome Auckland’s new water deal with ...
This is a re-post from Yale Climate ConnectionsA farmworker cleans the solar panels of a solar water pump in the village of Jagadhri, Haryana Country, India. (Photo credit: Prashanth Vishwanathan/ IWMI) Decisions made in India over the next few years will play a key role in global ...
Lindsay Mitchell writes – The Children’s Minister, Karen Chhour, intends to repeal Section 7AA from the Oranga Tamariki Act 1989 because it creates conflict between claimed Crown Treaty obligations and the child’s best interests. In her words, “Oranga Tamariki’s governing principles and its act should be colour ...
Geoffrey Miller writes – The gloves are off. That might seem to be the undertone of surprisingly tough talk from New Zealand’s foreign and trade ministers. Winston Peters, the foreign minister, may be facing legal action after making allegations about former Australian foreign minister Bob Carr on Radio New Zealand. ...
Brian Easton writes – This is about the time that the Treasury will be locking up its economic forecasts to be published in the 2024 Budget Economic and Fiscal Update (BEFU) on budget day, 30 May. I am not privy to what they will be (I will report on them ...
TL;DR:Winston Peters is reported to have won a budget increase for MFAT. David Seymour wanted his Ministry of Regulation to be three times bigger than the Productivity Commission. Simeon Brown is appointing a Crown Monitor to Watercare to protect the Claytons Crown Guarantee he had to give ratings agencies ...
The gloves are off. That might seem to be the undertone of surprisingly tough talk from New Zealand’s foreign and trade ministers. Winston Peters, the foreign minister, may be facing legal action after making allegations about former Australian foreign minister Bob Carr on Radio New Zealand. Carr had made highly ...
I could be a florist'Round the corner from Rye LaneI'll be giving daisies to craziesBut, baby, I'll wrap you up real safe Oh, I can give you flowers At the end of every dayFor the center of your table, a rainbowIn case you have people 'round to stay Depending on ...
TL;DR: The six key events to watch in Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy in the week to May 12 include:PM Christopher Luxon is scheduled to hold a post-Cabinet news conference at 4 pm today. Finance Minister Nicola Willis will give a pre-budget speech on Thursday.Parliament sits from Question Time at 2pm on ...
The price of the foreign affairs “reset” is now becoming apparent, with Defence set to get a funding boost in the Budget. Finance Minister Nicola Willis has confirmed that it will be one of the few votes, apart from Health and Education and possibly Police, which will get an increase ...
A listing of 26 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, April 28, 2024 thru Sat, May 4, 2024. Story of the week "It’s straight out of Big Tobacco’s playbook. In fact, research by John Cook and his colleagues ...
Yesterday I received come lovely feedback following my Star Wars themed newsletter. A few people mentioned they’d enjoyed reading the personal part at the beginning.I often begin newsletters with some memories, or general thoughts, before commencing the main topic. This hopefully sets the mood and provides some context in which ...
April 30 was going to be the day we’d be calling Mum from London to wish her a happy birthday. Then it became the day we would be going to St. Paul's at Evensong to remember her. The aim of the cathedral builders was to find a way to make their ...
Rob MacCulloch writes – Can’t remember the last book by a Kiwi author you read? Think the NZ government should spend less on the arts in favor of helping the homeless? If so, as far as Newsroom is concerned, you probably deserve to be called a cultural ignoramus ...
Eric Crampton writes – Grudges are bad. Better to move on. But it can be fun to keep a couple of really trivial ones, so you’re not tempted to have other ones. For example, because of the rootkit fiasco of 2005, no Sony products in our household. ...
A new report warns an estimated third of the adult population have unmet need for health care.Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāHere’s the six key things I learned about Aotaroa’s political economy this week around housing, climate and poverty:Politics - Three opinion polls confirmed support for PM Christopher Luxon ...
Today is May the fourth. Which was just a regular day when my mother took me to see the newly released Star Wars at the Odeon in Rotorua. The queue was right around the corner. Some years later this day became known as Star Wars Day, the date being a ...
Buzz from the Beehive Much more media attention is being paid to something Winston Peters said about former Australian Foreign Minister Bob Carr than to a speech he delivered to the New Zealand China Council. One word is missing from the speech: AUKUS. But AUKUS loomed large in his considerations ...
Is the economy in another long stagnation? If so, why?This is about the time that the Treasury will be locking up its economic forecasts to be published in the 2024 Budget Economic and Fiscal Update (BEFU) on budget day, 30 May. I am not privy to what they will be ...
The annual list of who's been bribing our politicians is out, and journalists will no doubt be poring over it to find the juiciest and dirtiest bribes. The government's fast-track invite list is likely to be a particular focus, and we already know of one company on the list which ...
In the weeks after the October 7 Hamas attacks on Southern Israel I wrote about the possible 2nd, 3rd and even 4th order effects of the conflict. These included new fronts being opened in the West Bank (with Hamas), Golan … Continue reading → ...
Peter Dunne writes – It is one of the oldest truisms that there is never a good time for MPs to get a pay rise. This week’s announcement of pay raises of around 2.8% backdated to last October could hardly have come at a worse time, with the ...
David Farrar writes – Newshub reports: Newshub can reveal a fresh allegation of intimidation against Green MP Julie-Anne Genter. Genter is subject to a disciplinary process for aggressively waving a book in the face of National Minister Matt Doocey in the House – but it’s not the first time ...
The Treasury has published a paper today on the global productivity slowdown and how it is playing out in New Zealand: The productivity slowdown: implications for the Treasury’s forecasts and projections. The Treasury Paper examines recent trends in productivity and the potential drivers of the slowdown. Productivity for the whole economy ...
Winston Peters’ comments about former Australian foreign minister look set to be an ongoing headache for both him and Luxon. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The podcast above of the weekly ‘hoon’ webinar for subscribers features co-hosts and , along with regular guests on Gaza and ...
These puppet strings don't pull themselvesYou're thinking thoughts from someone elseHow much time do you think you have?Are you prepared for what comes next?The debating chamber can be a trying place for an opposition MP. What with the person in charge, the speaker, typically being an MP from the governing ...
The land around Lyme Regis, where Meryl Streep once stood, in a hood, on the Cobb, is falling into the sea.MerylThe land around Lyme Regis, around the Cobb that made it rich, has always been falling slowly but surely into the sea. Read more ...
Photo by Jari Hytönen on UnsplashIt’s that new day of the week (Thursday rather than Friday) when and I co-host our ‘hoon’ webinar with paying subscribers to The Kākā for an hour at 5 pm. Jump on this link on YouTube Livestream for our chat about the week’s news ...
Buzz from the Beehive Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters was bound to win headlines when he set out his thinking about AUKUS in his speech to the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs. The headlines became bigger when – during an interview on RNZ’s Morning Report today – he criticised ...
The Post reports on how the government is refusing to release its advice on its corrupt Muldoonist fast-track law, instead using the "soon to be publicly available" refusal ground to hide it until after select committee submissions on the bill have closed. Fast-track Minister Chris Bishop's excuse? “It's not ...
As pressure on it grows, the livestock industry’s approach to the transition to Net Zero is increasingly being compared to that of fossil fuel interests. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / Getty ImagesTL;DR: Here’s the top five news items of note in climate news for Aotearoa-NZ this week, and a discussion above ...
The New Zealand Herald reports – Stats NZ has offered a voluntary redundancy scheme to all of its workers as a way to give staff some control over their “future” amidst widespread job losses in the public sector. In an update to staff this morning, seen by the Herald, Statistics New Zealand ...
On Werewolf/Scoop, I usually do two long form political columns a week. From now on, there will be an extra column each week about music and movies. But first, some late-breaking political events:The rise in unemployment numbers for the March quarter was bigger than expected – and especially sharp ...
David Farrar writes – The Herald reports: TVNZ says it is dealing with about 50 formal complaints over its coverage of the latest 1News-Verian political poll, with some viewers – as well as the Prime Minister and a former senior Labour MP – critical of the tone of the 6pm report. ...
Muriel Newman writes – When Meridian Energy was seeking resource consents for a West Coast hydro dam proposal in 2010, local Maori “strenuously” objected, claiming their mana was inextricably linked to ‘their’ river and could be damaged. After receiving a financial payment from the company, however, the Ngai Tahu ...
The Green Party is welcoming the announcement by the Minister Responsible for RMA Reform Chris Bishop to approve most of the Wellington City Council’s District Plan recommendations. ...
David Seymour has failed to get the sweeping cuts he wanted to the free and healthy school lunch programme, Labour education spokesperson Jan Tinetti said. ...
Hon Willie Jackson has been invited by the Oxford Union to debate the motion “This House Believes British Museums are not Very British’ on May 23rd. ...
Green Party MP Hūhana Lyndon says her Public Works (Prohibition of Compulsory Acquisition of Māori Land) Amendment Bill is an opportunity to right some past wrongs around the alienation of Māori land. ...
A senior, highly respected King’s Counsel with decades of experience in our law courts, Gary Judd KC, has filed a complaint about compulsory tikanga Māori studies for law students - highlighting the utter depths of absurdity this woke cultural madness has taken our society. The tikanga regulations will compel law ...
The Government needs to be clear with the people of the Nelson Marlborough region about the changes it is considering for the Nelson Hospital rebuild, Labour health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall said. ...
Ministers must front up about which projects it will push through under its Fast Track Approvals legislation, Labour environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said today. ...
The Government is again adding to New Zealand’s growing unemployment, this time cutting jobs at the agencies responsible for urban development and growing much needed housing stock. ...
With Minister Karen Chhour indicating in the House today that she either doesn’t know or care about the frontline cuts she’s making to Oranga Tamariki, we risk seeing more and more of our children falling through the cracks. ...
The Labour Party is saddened to learn of the death of Sir Robert Martin, a globally renowned disability advocate who led the way for disability rights both in New Zealand and internationally. ...
Labour is calling for the Government to urgently rethink its coalition commitment to restart live animal exports, Labour animal welfare spokesperson Rachel Boyack said. ...
Today’s Financial Stability Report has once again highlighted that poverty and deep inequality are political choices - and this Government is choosing to make them worse. ...
The Green Party is calling on the Government to do more for our households in most need as unemployment rises and the cost of living crisis endures. ...
Unemployment is on the rise and it’s only going to get worse under this Government, Labour finance spokesperson Barbara Edmonds said. Stats NZ figures show the unemployment rate grew to 4.3 percent in the March quarter from 4 percent in the December quarter. “This is the second rise in unemployment ...
The New Zealand Labour Party welcomes the entering into force of the European Union and New Zealand free trade agreement. This agreement opens the door for a huge increase in trade opportunities with a market of 450 million people who are high value discerning consumers of New Zealand goods and ...
The National-led Government continues its fiscal jiggery pokery with its Pharmac announcement today, Labour Health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall says. “The government has increased Pharmac funding but conceded it will only make minimal increases in access to medicine”, said Ayesha Verrall “This is far from the bold promises made to fund ...
This afternoon’s interim Waitangi Tribunal report must be taken seriously as it affects our most vulnerable children, Labour children’s spokesperson Willow-Jean Prime. ...
Te Pāti Māori are demanding the New Zealand Government support an international independent investigation into mass graves that have been uncovered at two hospitals on the Gaza strip, following weeks of assault by Israeli troops. Among the 392 bodies that have been recovered, are children and elderly civilians. Many of ...
Our two-tiered system for veterans’ support is out of step with our closest partners, and all parties in Parliament should work together to fix it, Labour veterans’ affairs spokesperson Greg O’Connor said. ...
Stripping two Ministers of their portfolios just six months into the job shows Christopher Luxon’s management style is lacking, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said. ...
Tonight’s court decision to overturn the summons of the Children’s Minister has enabled the Crown to continue making decisions about Māori without evidence, says Te Pāti Māori spokesperson for Children, Mariameno Kapa-Kingi. “The judicial system has this evening told the nation that this government can do whatever they want when ...
It appears Nicola Willis is about to pull the rug out from under the feet of local communities still dealing with the aftermath of last year’s severe weather, and local councils relying on funding to build back from these disasters. ...
The Government is making short-sighted changes to the Resource Management Act (RMA) that will take away environmental protection in favour of short-term profits, Labour’s environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said today. ...
Labour welcomes the release of the report into the North Island weather events and looks forward to working with the Government to ensure that New Zealand is as prepared as it can be for the next natural disaster. ...
The Labour Party has called for the New Zealand Government to recognise Palestine, as a material step towards progressing the two-State solution needed to achieve a lasting peace in the region. ...
Some of our country’s most important work, stopping the sexual exploitation of children and violent extremism could go along with staff on the frontline at ports and airports. ...
The Government’s Fast Track Approvals Bill will give projects such as new coal mines a ‘get out of jail free’ card to wreak havoc on the environment, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said today. ...
The government's decision to reintroduce Three Strikes is a destructive and ineffective piece of law-making that will only exacerbate an inherently biased and racist criminal justice system, said Te Pāti Māori Justice Spokesperson, Tākuta Ferris, today. During the time Three Strikes was in place in Aotearoa, Māori and Pasifika received ...
Cuts to frontline hospital staff are not only a broken election promise, it shows the reckless tax cuts have well and truly hit the frontline of the health system, says Labour Health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall. ...
The Green Party has joined the call for public submissions on the fast-track legislation to be extended after the Ombudsman forced the Government to release the list of organisations invited to apply just hours before submissions close. ...
New Zealand’s good work at reducing climate emissions for three years in a row will be undone by the National government’s lack of ambition and scrapping programmes that were making a difference, Labour Party climate spokesperson Megan Woods said today. ...
Your Excellency Ambassador Meredith, Members of the Diplomatic Corps and Ambassadors from European Union Member States, Ministerial colleagues, Members of Parliament, and other distinguished guests, Thank you everyone for joining us. Ladies and gentlemen - In diplomacy, we often speak of ‘close’ and ‘long-standing’ relations. ...
The Therapeutic Products Act (TPA) will be repealed this year so that a better regime can be put in place to provide New Zealanders safe and timely access to medicines, medical devices and health products, Associate Health Minister Casey Costello announced today. “The medicines and products we are talking about ...
The Minister Responsible for RMA Reform, Chris Bishop, today released his decision on twenty recommendations referred to him by the Wellington City Council relating to its Intensification Planning Instrument, after the Council rejected those recommendations of the Independent Hearings Panel and made alternative recommendations. “Wellington notified its District Plan on ...
Rape Awareness Week (6-10 May) is an important opportunity to acknowledge the continued effort required by government and communities to ensure that all New Zealanders can live free from violence, say Ministers Karen Chhour and Louise Upston. “With 1 in 3 women and 1 in 8 men experiencing sexual violence ...
Associate Education Minister David Seymour has today announced that the Government will be delivering a more efficient Healthy School Lunches Programme, saving taxpayers approximately $107 million a year compared to how Labour funded it, by embracing innovation and commercial expertise. “We are delivering on our commitment to treat taxpayers’ money ...
New research on the impacts of extreme weather on coastal marine habitats in Tairāwhiti and Hawke’s Bay will help fishery managers plan for and respond to any future events, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. A report released today on research by Niwa on behalf of Fisheries New Zealand ...
Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Winston Peters will lead a broad political delegation on a five-stop Pacific tour next week to strengthen New Zealand’s engagement with the region. The delegation will visit Solomon Islands, Papua New Guinea, Vanuatu, New Caledonia, and Tuvalu. “New Zealand has deep and ...
There has been a material decline in gas production according to figures released today by the Gas Industry Co. Figures released by the Gas Industry Company show that there was a 12.5 per cent reduction in gas production during 2023, and a 27.8 per cent reduction in gas production in the ...
Defence Minister Judith Collins tonight announced the recipients of the Minister of Defence Awards of Excellence for Industry, saying they all contribute to New Zealanders’ security and wellbeing. “Congratulations to this year’s recipients, whose innovative products and services play a critical role in the delivery of New Zealand’s defence capabilities, ...
Welcome to you all - it is a pleasure to be here this evening.I would like to start by thanking Greg Lowe, Chair of the New Zealand Defence Industry Advisory Council, for co-hosting this reception with me. This evening is about recognising businesses from across New Zealand and overseas who in ...
It is a pleasure to be speaking to you as the Minister for Digitising Government. I would like to thank Akolade for the invitation to address this Summit, and to acknowledge the great effort you are making to grow New Zealand’s digital future. Today, we stand at the cusp of ...
New Zealand is urging both Israel and Hamas to agree to an immediate ceasefire to avoid the further humanitarian catastrophe that military action in Rafah would unleash, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. “The immense suffering in Gaza cannot be allowed to worsen further. Both sides have a responsibility to ...
A new online data dashboard released today as part of the Government’s school attendance action plan makes more timely daily attendance data available to the public and parents, says Associate Education Minister David Seymour. The interactive dashboard will be updated once a week to show a national average of how ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters has announced Rosemary Banks will be New Zealand’s next Ambassador to the United States of America. “Our relationship with the United States is crucial for New Zealand in strategic, security and economic terms,” Mr Peters says. “New Zealand and the United States have a ...
The Government is considering creating a new tier of minerals permitting that will make it easier for hobby miners to prospect for gold. “New Zealand was built on gold, it’s in our DNA. Our gold deposits, particularly in regions such as Otago and the West Coast have always attracted fortune-hunters. ...
Minister for Trade Todd McClay today announced that New Zealand and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) will commence negotiations on a free trade agreement (FTA). Minister McClay met with his counterpart UAE Trade Minister Dr Thani bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi in Dubai, where they announced the launch of negotiations on a ...
New Zealand Sign Language Week is an excellent opportunity for all Kiwis to give the language a go, Disabilities Issues Minister Louise Upston says. This week (May 6 to 12) is New Zealand Sign Language (NZSL) Week. The theme is “an Aotearoa where anyone can sign anywhere” and aims to ...
Six tertiary students have been selected to work on NASA projects in the US through a New Zealand Space Scholarship, Space Minister Judith Collins announced today. “This is a fantastic opportunity for these talented students. They will undertake internships at NASA’s Ames Research Center or its Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), where ...
New Zealanders will be safer because of a $1.9 billion investment in more frontline Corrections officers, more support for offenders to turn away from crime, and more prison capacity, Corrections Minister Mark Mitchell says. “Our Government said we would crack down on crime. We promised to restore law and order, ...
The OECD’s latest report on New Zealand reinforces the importance of bringing Government spending under control, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. The OECD conducts country surveys every two years to review its members’ economic policies. The 2024 New Zealand survey was presented in Wellington today by OECD Chief Economist Clare Lombardelli. ...
The Government has delivered on its election promise to provide a financially sustainable model for Auckland under its Local Water Done Well plan. The plan, which has been unanimously endorsed by Auckland Council’s Governing Body, will see Aucklanders avoid the previously projected 25.8 per cent water rates increases while retaining ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters discussed the need for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, and enhanced cooperation in the Pacific with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock during her first official visit to New Zealand today. "New Zealand and Germany enjoy shared interests and values, including the rule of law, democracy, respect for the international system ...
The Minister Responsible for RMA Reform, Chris Bishop today released his decision on four recommendations referred to him by the Western Bay of Plenty District Council, opening the door to housing growth in the area. The Council’s Plan Change 92 allows more homes to be built in existing and new ...
Thank you, John McKinnon and the New Zealand China Council for the invitation to speak to you today. Thank you too, all members of the China Council. Your effort has played an essential role in helping to build, shape, and grow a balanced and resilient relationship between our two ...
The Government is modernising insurance law to better protect Kiwis and provide security in the event of a disaster, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly announced today. “These reforms are long overdue. New Zealand’s insurance law is complicated and dated, some of which is more than 100 years old. ...
The coalition Government is refreshing its approach to supporting pay equity claims as time-limited funding for the Pay Equity Taskforce comes to an end, Public Service Minister Nicola Willis says. “Three years ago, the then-government introduced changes to the Equal Pay Act to support pay equity bargaining. The changes were ...
Structured literacy will change the way New Zealand children learn to read - improving achievement and setting students up for success, Education Minister Erica Stanford says. “Being able to read and write is a fundamental life skill that too many young people are missing out on. Recent data shows that ...
Trade Minister Todd McClay says Canada’s refusal to comply in full with a CPTPP trade dispute ruling in our favour over dairy trade is cynical and New Zealand has no intention of backing down. Mr McClay said he has asked for urgent legal advice in respect of our ‘next move’ ...
The rights of our children and young people will be enhanced by changes the coalition Government will make to strengthen oversight of the Oranga Tamariki system, including restoring a single Children’s Commissioner. “The Government is committed to delivering better public services that care for our most at-risk young people and ...
The Government is making it easier for minor changes to be made to a building consent so building a home is easier and more affordable, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “The coalition Government is focused on making it easier and cheaper to build homes so we can ...
New Zealand lost a true legend when internationally renowned disability advocate Sir Robert Martin (KNZM) passed away at his home in Whanganui last night, Disabilities Issues Minister Louise Upston says. “Our Government’s thoughts are with his wife Lynda, family and community, those he has worked with, the disability community in ...
Good evening – Before discussing the challenges and opportunities facing New Zealand’s foreign policy, we’d like to first acknowledge the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs. You have contributed to debates about New Zealand foreign policy over a long period of time, and we thank you for hosting us. ...
From today, passengers travelling internationally from Auckland Airport will be able to keep laptops and liquids in their carry-on bags for security screening thanks to new technology, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Creating a more efficient and seamless travel experience is important for holidaymakers and businesses, enabling faster movement through ...
People with an interest in the health of Northland’s marine ecosystems are invited to a public meeting to discuss how to deal with kina barrens, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones will lead the discussion, which will take place on Friday, 10 May, at Awanui Hotel in ...
Kiwi exporters are $100 million better off today with the NZ EU FTA entering into force says Trade Minister Todd McClay. “This is all part of our plan to grow the economy. New Zealand's prosperity depends on international trade, making up 60 per cent of the country’s total economic activity. ...
There are heartening signs that the extractive sector is once again becoming an attractive prospect for investors and a source of economic prosperity for New Zealand, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. “The beginnings of a resurgence in extractive industries are apparent in media reports of the sector in the past ...
The return of the historic Ō-Rākau battle site to the descendants of those who fought there moved one step closer today with the first reading of Te Pire mō Ō-Rākau, Te Pae o Maumahara / The Ō-Rākau Remembrance Bill. The Bill will entrust the 9.7-hectare battle site, five kilometres west ...
Energy Minister Simeon Brown has announced 25 new high-speed EV charging hubs along key routes between major urban centres and outlined the Government’s plan to supercharge New Zealand’s EV infrastructure. The hubs will each have several chargers and be capable of charging at least four – and up to 10 ...
The coalition Government will not proceed with the previous Government’s plans to regulate residential property managers, Housing Minister Chris Bishop says. “I have written to the Chairperson of the Social Services and Community Committee to inform him that the Government does not intend to support the Residential Property Managers Bill ...
The Government has announced an independent review into the disability support system funded by the Ministry of Disabled People – Whaikaha. Disability Issues Minister Louise Upston says the review will look at what can be done to strengthen the long-term sustainability of Disability Support Services to provide disabled people and ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra Next week the government will again next try to get its legislation through to deal with non-citizens who won’t cooperate with efforts to deport them. The bill, which the opposition and crossbench refused to rush ...
A long-term project that will set out an alternative vision for Aotearoa that looks beyond the narrow confines of the policy straight jacket adopted by successive governments. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Bree Hurst, Associate Professor, Faculty of Business and Law, QUT, Queensland University of Technology TK Kurikawa/Shutterstock A much-awaited report into Coles and Woolworths has found what many customers have long believed – Australia’s big supermarkets engage in price gouging. What started ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Daniel Ghezelbash, Associate Professor and Deputy Director, Kaldor Centre for International Refugee Law, UNSW Law & Justice, UNSW Sydney The Albanese government wanted to avoid an inquiry into its migration amendment bill. The report, handed down yesterday by a senate committee that ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Joo-Cheong Tham, Professor, Melbourne Law School, The University of Melbourne Lobbying is at the heart of government. Who has access to and influence over key government officials shapes the decisions governments make – and how they make them. The ability to influence ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Myfany Turpin, Associate Professor, Ethnomusicology, Linguistics and Ethnobiology, University of Sydney The act representing Australia at this year’s Eurovision contest has sadly not qualified for the grand final. Yet for Zaachariaha Fielding and Michael Ross, the duo that makes up Electric Fields, ...
In announcing changes to the school lunches programme, David Seymour said kids would no longer be served ‘woke’ foods. To clear up any confusion, The Spinoff has compiled a guide to the wokeness levels of some common food items. Apple = NOT WOKE Avocado = WOKE Avocado, smashed = EVEN ...
The Minister Responsible for GCSB and the Inspector-General of Intelligence and Security have been notified of this review, and have been provided a finalised Terms of Reference. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Minglu Chen, Senior Lecturer, Government and International Relations, University of Sydney Robert Way/Shutterstock As the past few years have illustrated so clearly, the Australia-China relationship is complicated. As such, it is crucial for Australians to develop a more nuanced understanding of ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mariana Campbell, Research Lecturer, Conservation, Charles Darwin University Marilyn Connell Australian freshwater turtles are facing an alarming trend. Almost half of these species are listed as vulnerable, endangered or critically endangered. The Mary River turtle (Elusor macrurus) is one of Australia’s ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Debbie Passey, Digital Health Research Fellow, The University of Melbourne Algorithms have become integral to our lives. From social media apps to Netflix, algorithms learn your preferences and prioritise the content you are shown. Google Maps and artificial intelligence are nothing without ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Josephine Barbaro, Associate Professor, Principal Research Fellow, Psychologist, La Trobe University Unsplash We’ve come a long way in terms of understanding that everyone thinks, interacts and experiences the world differently. In the past, autistic people, people with attention deficit hyperactive disorder ...
PNG Post-Courier Papua New Guinea’s deputy opposition leader James Nomane has accused the government of “reckless economic management” that has forced devaluation to manage loan repayments in foreign currency and placate the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Prime Minister James Marape “must stop lying to the people of Papua New Guinea”, ...
Welcome to The Spinoff Bookseller Confessional, in which we get to know Aotearoa’s booksellers. This week: Jane Arthur, author of Brown Bird, and former bookseller at Good Books.The book I wish I’d writtenI have been working on not comparing myself to others. On accepting that what I can ...
The final decision on the Wellington District Plan makes it official: High-density housing is legal across most of Wellington. Housing minister Chris Bishop has announced his decision on the Wellington District Plan, approving a series of amendments to radically upzone most of Wellington, allowing tens of thousands of new townhouses ...
Analysis by Dr Bryce Edwards – Democracy Project (https://democracyproject.nz)Political scientist, Dr Bryce Edwards. “Follow the money” is the classic directive to journalists trying to understand where power and influence lie in society. In terms of uncovering who influences various New Zealand political parties and governments, it therefore pays to ...
RNZ News As Israel presses ahead with strikes in Rafah and seizing the Rafah crossing from Egypt, aid agencies are sounding the alarm of a “catastrophic humanitarian situation”. Rafah was “significant” because it was the only part in Gaza that had not been terribly damaged by the conflict, United Nations ...
With funding set to be scrapped for the Hamilton-Auckland commuter train, Te Huia enthusiast Georgie Dansey argues for it to be thrown a lifeline. It’s 5.45am and the chain of my crappy old bike falls off slugging up the one hill in Hamilton. I contemplate yeeting the bike into the ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anna Cooke, Honorary Fellow, School of the Environment, The University of Queensland We feel ecological grief when we lose places, species or ecosystems we value and love. These losses are a growing threat to mental health and wellbeing globally. We all see ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Shauna Brail, Associate Professor, Institute for Management & Innovation, University of Toronto A shift to hybrid and remote work continues to affect worker presence in Toronto’s downtown.(Shutterstock) Downtown Toronto, the core of Canada’s largest city, continues to reel from the lingering ...
Responding to an Auditor-General's report slamming failures in the administration of the 2023 General Election, Taxpayers’ Union Policy and Public Affairs Manager, James Ross, said: ...
Productivity apps now make up a big chunk of the software market. But do they work? And why do they all have AI integrations?Despite being firmly on the record as a physical planner fan, I sometimes dream of something better than my pretty diary and its scrawled, ugly, interior ...
The Taxpayers’ Union says the Beehive need to lead by example, following reports of more than $50,000 spent upgrading video conferencing equipment and furniture in the Prime Minister’s office. Taxpayers’ Union Campaign Manager, Connor Molloy, ...
An objective list of the 50 most powerful people in New Zealand, as judged by the Spinoff Editorial Board. It’s power list season, baby, and we want in on the action. Sure, there’s the rich list and the powerful “c-suite” list and the young people with power (hmmm) but here, ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Thalia Anthony, Professor of Law, University of Technology Sydney ShutterstockThis article contains information on deaths in custody and the names of deceased people, and describes ongoing colonial violence towards Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people. First Nations people in Australia ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alex Simpson, Senior Lecturer in Criminology, Macquarie University Netflix Baby Reindeer’s phenomenal success has much to do with its writer and lead, Richard Gadd, who plays Donny in a tender semi-autobiographical account of sexual abuse, harassment and stalking. Gadd’s story has ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Clare Collins, Laureate Professor in Nutrition and Dietetics, University of Newcastle KarolinaGrabowska/Pexels If you didn’t have food allergies as a child, is it possible to develop them as an adult? The short answer is yes. But the reasons why are much ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Paul Moon, Professor of History, Auckland University of Technology Ans Westra, self-portrait, c. 1963. National Library ref AWM-0705-F They try but invariably fail – those writers who believe they are capable of encapsulating in prose or verse the essence of ...
Stewart Sowman-Lund looks at the growing concern around the world in this extract from The Bulletin. To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign up here. What’s all this? When Covid-19 arrived on our shores in early 2020, some argued we were too slow, or crucially, ill-prepared for a pandemic. So ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Franco Montalto, Professor of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering and Director, Sustainable Water Resource Engineering Laboratory, Drexel University Water runs into a storm drain in a Los Angeles alley on Aug. 19, 2023, during Tropical Storm Hilary.Citizen of the Planet/Universal Images ...
The inquest into the death of Gore toddler Lachlan Jones has turned up a new witness who says he saw two teenagers and a small child in a high vis vest in the area where the boy’s body was found the day he died. Lachie’s body was discovered face up ...
Stories from the tenancy trenches, featuring spider infestations, cupboard rats and same-sex discrimination. Lucy’s brother was living in a damp 1930s building in Mt Eden where “he had to tie the cupboard doors closed so the rats didn’t get in”. Although he shared custody of his six-year-old son, his property ...
Simeon Brown, Chris Luxon, and Wayne Brown climbed into a hole and announced a plan to solve Auckland’s water woes. This is how it’ll work. New Zealand’s pipes are munted. They’re cracked and leaking, and struggling to handle all the extra poos excreted by our rising population. It’s a big, ...
I knew Taika Waititi quite well when he was a kid. His mother lived in a tall narrow house in Aro St, and my youngest sister had a similar house two doors along. They were both single mums, they each had a son aged seven. Taika and my nephew Stepan ...
Opinion: “As time passes, knowledge of the circumstances of the August 2016 outbreak will fade and its immediate impact will be lost.” This statement is from the 2017 report of the Official Inquiry into the Havelock North campylobacteriosis outbreak. The then National-led government established the inquiry after the outbreak left ...
Opinion: Nicholas Khoo looks at two key points in the high-stakes foreign policy pact debate – and asks if NZ can engage with as little drama as possible. The post Where to next for the Aukus ruckus? appeared first on Newsroom. ...
Loading…(function(i,s,o,g,r,a,m){var ql=document.querySelectorAll('A,DIV,A[data-quiz],DIV[data-quiz]'); if(ql){if(ql.length){for(var k=0;k<ql.length;k++){ql[k].id='quiz-embed-'+k;ql[k].href="javascript:var i=document.getElementById('quiz-embed-"+k+"');try{qz.startQuiz(i)}catch(e){i.start=1;i.style.cursor='wait';i.style.opacity='0.5'};void(0);"}}};i['QP']=r;i[r]=i[r]||function(){(i[r].q=i[r].q||[]).push(arguments)},i[r].l=1*new Date();a=s.createElement(o),m=s.getElementsByTagName(o)[0];a.async=1;a.src=g;m.parentNode.insertBefore(a,m)})(window,document,'script','https://take.quiz-maker.com/3012/CDN/quiz-embed-v1.js','qp'); Got a good quiz question?Send Newsroom your questions. The post Newsroom daily quiz, Wednesday 8 May appeared first on Newsroom. ...
Opinion: ‘Reference-class forecasting’ is at the heart of improving pricing a project and identifying the expected timeframe but it doesn’t appear to be in use here The post ‘Think fast and act slowly’ is failing big projects appeared first on Newsroom. ...
What do a sombrero in Argentina and cognitive driving tests have in common? Don’t worry, we’re not setting up a bad joke. Hinengaro Clinic dementia clinician Gregory Winkelman has the answer on today’s episode of The Detail. “We ask a patient’s spouse or son or daughter: If you went to ...
Wellington long jumper Phoebe Edwards is back and she’s having fun again. Until this year, Edwards, a top athlete in her teens, had never competed as a senior athlete in New Zealand. In March, the 26-year-old won a national long jump title in a lifetime best of 6.28m after ...
After replacing a fifth of their caucus in just four months, the Greens’ opportunity to reset, reshuffle and refocus on the Government is quickly slipping away The post Persistent Green Party scandals delay caucus reset appeared first on Newsroom. ...
ANALYSIS:By Olli Hellmann, University of Waikato When New Zealanders commemorate Anzac Day today on April 25, it’s not only to honour the soldiers who lost their lives in World War I and subsequent conflicts, but also to mark a defining event for national identity. The battle of Gallipoli against ...
By Robin Martin, RNZ News reporter A New Zealand local authority, Whanganui District Council, has passed a motion calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, condemnation of all acts of violence and terror against civilians on both sides of the conflict and the immediate return of hostages. It comes as ...
Asia Pacific Report The Aotearoa chapter of the Women’s International league for Peace and Freedom (WILPF) has appealed to the New Zealand government to call out Israel over the “cruel and barbaric use of force” in Gaza and demand a permanent ceasefire. The league’s open letter was sent to Prime ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra The Albanese government will invest $566 million over a decade on data, maps and other tools to promote exploration and development in Australia’s resources industry. The project will fund “the first comprehensive map of what’s ...
Asia Pacific Report Following an open letter by Auckland University academics speaking out in support of their students’ right to protest against the genocidal Israeli war on Gaza, a group of academics at Otago University have today also called on New Zealand academic institutions to “repair colonial violence” and end ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Linda J. Graham, Professor and Director of the Centre for Inclusive Education, Queensland University of Technology Ryan Tauss/ Unsplash, CC BY Two male students have been expelled from a Melbourne private school for their involvement in a list ranking female students. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Martin, Visiting Fellow, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University The Reserve Bank is now assuming Australians will see no interest rate cuts this year – and quite possibly none before the next federal election, due next May. That’s ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Hayward, Emeritus Professor of Public Policy, RMIT University The Victorian budget offered more of the same on Tuesday, with the only change being how the budget papers were packaged. The usual shrink wrap was gone, hinting at savings in the pages ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra The Coalition is demanding extensive amendments to the government’s legislation targeting non-citizens who refuse to co-operate with their removal. In a dissenting report to the senate inquiry into the legislation, the Coalition says it ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Vanita Yadav, Senior Research Fellow, Urban Transformations Research Centre, Western Sydney University Brett Boardman/Belvoir The complex and grappling issue of violence against women takes centre stage in the soul-stirring solo dance drama Nayika: A Dancing Girl. During a dinner conversation ...
Disruption to patient care from a nationwide junior doctors strike is bordering on unsafe, a senior doctor claims, despite what health officials say. ...
All the talk about laws and regulations is all very well. But if the agencies that are tasked with ensuring compliance aren't funded and resourced, or worse, captured, then it all counts for shit. If a government just spent a term on making sure everything already on the books was actually being enforced, that would probably make more actual progress than a ton of inspirational ideas …
https://www.huffpost.com/highline/article/white-collar-crime/
+1 Totally agree.
If only we had that kind of scrutiny put onto our society.
Sure, we rank really high in lack of corruption.
But we are run by a handful of oligopolies, monopsonies and state monopolies. For some reason with two main supermarket chains we have massively expensive food compared to Australia. Same for petrol. Same for electricity. Same for phone and internet. Near-monopolies for primary and secondary education. Don't get me started about environemental regulation, or air and land transport regulation, or local government, or water pricing. Many other fields: mess and gradual decline, and corrosion to New Zealanders wealth, property, and happiness.
But without exacting and strong anti-competitive capacity, we have no one that brings the kind of fear that the ACCC does when it cracks the whip.
We argue endlessly about changing laws.
But if the agencies that are tasked with ensuring compliance aren't funded and resourced – and respected – well ……
We rank high in lack of perceived corruption.
But a lot of the laws and regulations that the wealthy and high-income put great effort into avoiding and evading in other jurisdictions aren't even on the books here. So no need to avoid and evade, just reap the benefits of fleecing easy targets.
Ain't that the bloody truthiness. Shame is that in NZ, it seems to have taken a while for the law and regulation makers to realise that some of the enforcers had been "captured" quite a while ago.
Well, watching Bryce Edwards talking to Duncan Garner just now, I'm thinking this donations saga could sink NZF. They were even talking about an early election.
Voters seem not to have liked King Shane, and NZF coming in at 3.5% in the latest poll puts them in vulnerable territory. If the SFO prosecutes, they may end up in the margin of error come the next poll.
Bryce reminded us that it is history repeating itself – NZF had a similar controversy way back, and the NZF foundation was established as internal reform from that. So it's a situation created by lawyers, for lawyers. Brian Henry's reputation is on the line…
What is the margin of error for the NZF poll result (i.e. 3.5%) in that poll, Dennis? You have a degree in Physics so you should know the answer.
Well I haven't checked that one – I was just going on the standard margin of error (+/- 3%). Given that social reality is created by mass perception, the popular perception that Seymour is likely to get one or two more ACT MPs into parliament has no basis in statistics but is influential nonetheless.
Same type of thinking applies to NZF, despite the confident assertion of pundits that history will repeat itself via Winston barnstorming it over the threshold as usual.
So I'm suggesting that a counter-narrative may emerge. NZF sinking into the margin of error may cause some of their support base to shift allegiance. That small group could become critical to the election outcome.
Well, I’d suggest you do check. By not checking and by perpetuating your unchecked statement that NZF could sink into the margin of error, you are not only following popular perception but you are feeding it too. This clumsy use of statistics whilst claiming that public perception has no basis in statistics is incredibly poor framing and sloppy narrative. But hey, I’m all for dumbing down public political discourse; it seems to be the preferred way.
I think you're missing the point. If that poll has a different margin of error, all it means is that the kind of people who take statistical measures of uncertainty seriously will think it is important. That group is so tiny that the political relevance of their collective opinion is negligible.
Most people assume that any political poll quoted in the media uses the standard margin of error. Social reality gets created by such mass perceptions. Not that I'm claiming most voters even think about such things! Quite the contrary. 🤨
Yes, we know you’re stubborn 😉
NZF polled at 3.6% in the latest Newshub-Reid Research poll.
The margin of error for NZF is about 1.16%.
You’re welcome.
Well Dennis, I will counter your counter-narrative by suggesting that the opposite may occur – whereby a group of voters (from across the left/right political spectrum) could also step into give one of their votes to NZF to ensure they remain as a centralist balance. I know a number of people who are considering exactly this.
The NZF party of today is a very different animal to the one that existed pre 2008 with Peters spending his time in the wilderness revamping the party into one supported by a much wider age range and range of views to that previously. Both Lprent and I have written here on TS on this many times over recent years.
Sure, Jonesy is a bit of a weak link but the other NZF MPs have been doing a very credible job in their various Ministerial roles and support roles – eg Tracey Martin and Ron Mark as well as Peters himself as Minister of Foreign Affairs.
We don't hear much of Fletcher Tabuteau, but IMO he, rather than Jonesy, is the one who is being groomed as the next leader as reflected in his roles not only as Deputy Leader, but also as understudy to both Peters and Jonesy as Parliamentary Under Secretary for Foreign Affairs and Parliamentary Under Secretary for Regional Economic Development.
An excellent response. All makes sense and I hope you're right. The public mood is fickle and I liken it to a river, in which you get eddies where the local flow sometimes runs up-stream (only in the vortices).
In that analogy the boulders in the river represent structural adjustments in social reality such as SFO investigations/prosecutions. They cause whirlpools in the overall flow.
So these narratives and counter-narratives are sub-groups large and small of the body politic, in which the river represents the meta-narrative (deep context). Some folks are more tribal than others, some more moral than others, some more strategic in their political thinking, some just reactive. Political motivations are always a potent brew that is fermenting!
The margin actually varies for each party.
Had a conversation with a polling expert a few years ago about that (which I can't find right now) but here is a similar point made concisely by one of NZ's leading scientists: https://sciblogs.co.nz/guestwork/2010/01/25/summer-of-stats-part-7-margins-of-error/#comment-30526
Stats professor Thomas Lumley adds even more detail – plus a handy graph that shows how it works in real historic political polls: https://www.statschat.org.nz/2014/07/02/whats-the-actual-margin-of-error/
If I could insert graphics in comments, I would put it here. https://www.statschat.org.nz/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/NZ_opinion_polls_2011-2014-majorparties.png
Exactly!
The quoted margin of error only applies to a poll result of 50%.
Still, people who should know better continue spreading misleading narrative and thus are helping to dumb down debate 🙁
I have done it myself before learning about the topic.
🙂
Some people refuse to learn for some strange reason!?
The MSM could make a tiny effort to educate their readers but they also seem to prefer to keep it simpler than as simple as possible.
Once you know that the usual 3.1% margin of error only applies to a party polling at 50% you cannot unknow it.
Some media people seem quite happy to unknow things that get in the way of a story. Declining professional standards and ethical vacuums..
Sadly true but here on The Standard we can offer a little light educational experience for those who don’t mind it 😉
" …you cannot unknow it "
Dunno about that. The topic has come up a number of times previously here at TS. Yet ISTR sometimes just a few weeks later, some people involved in those threads were again talking about parties 'falling below the margin of error'.
Or maybe they were just going for a wind-up.
My impression is that with some here they only have a cursory read of the OP and/or other comments before they dive in to give (it) their 2 cts.
In other words, they did not actually learn a thing and therefore cannot unknow it 😉
Your point is valid in all other cases though 😉
Just his opinion. Misinterpretation of stats has always been endemic. Amongst academics as much as others. I did pass the second year statistics exam at the University of Auckland, but that was in 1969 so I don't consider myself an authority. From your link:
"So what is a ‘margin of error’? It’s a measure of how accurately the results of a poll reflect the views of the whole ‘population’. In a political poll, the whole ’population’ means all potential voters. The margin of error tells you how confident you should be about drawing conclusions from the results."
That's exactly my grasp of the relevance of the margin of error. Application to a small-polling party in the manner described by others seems irrational. Voodoo, almost. But if someone can supply a rationale for this bizarre behaviour I'm open-minded & will give it due consideration.
Your opinion vs Shaun Hendy's. Hmmm, let me think..
Don't be guided by authority figures. That's always been the slippery slope to hell. Figure it out for yourself. Note how the paragraph I quoted outlines the rationale for interpretation. The margin of error is clearly specified as pertaining to the whole.
This provides no rational basis for inventing an entirely different margin of error to apply to individual political party ratings. Unless anyone can provide an accepted rationale for doing so, my advice to readers is to beware of attempts to con them with bullshit…
There's authority, then there's credibility. You did read the piece by Thomas Lumley? And as I said, an NZ polling expert told me exactly the same. I even worked up a result set graphically based on the numbers from one of his company's polls. Just need to track it down around the pesky day job that some of us have.
So if you aren't persuaded by a world-class physicist that routinely uses very sophisticated statistics for his day job, maybe you'll find a "How-to Guide for Dummies" from dummies.com more to your taste?
https://www.dummies.com/education/math/statistics/how-to-calculate-the-margin-of-error-for-a-sample-proportion/
No, because I graduated with a BSc in Physics, and statistics was part of the prescription. Specialisation, and the extent of relevance to the real world, of anyone who progresses further down that rabbit hole, cannot be generalised.
And that mathematical exposition you linked me to contains no relevant logic to the question at hand.
Now I'm intrigued.
Can you point us to anywhere that explains the frankomatho relevant to this situation?
Something about shadows on a cave wall, distant drums, the babble of children around a fire.
To my understanding a margin of area is used alongside a p-value to make it useful.
If a party gets 50% and a margin of error of 3.5%. And the p-value is 0.05. We can say, with 95% certainty (that 95/100 times), the party in question has between 46.5% and 53.5% support. So, even incorporating a margin of error, there is still room for error.
All the calculations should be performed for each party or the poll is a nonsense.
Also, the type of analysis is critical.
Yeah, it's all about interpretation. Media framing of the results does the rest. I think this red herring about different margins of error is only of technical interest. I haven't seen anyone make a case for it as an issue of substance. If they were capable, they would have done so. Then it would become a moral issue for broadcasters to get right…
@Dennis. A separate margin of error is crucial. A 3.5% margin of error on 3.5% support is considerably different to 3.5% on 50% support. The first is nonsense and does not belong with the data. You've got this point wrong by a considerable margin, even factoring in a wide margin of error.
No I did not! Your first statement makes sense, but my point was that the margin cited applies to the entire poll. That's how the media frame it to the people. When in Rome do as the Romans do!
My original point was that slipping down into that margin of error is likely to change a sufficient number of minds to affect identity politics polling & potentially the election result. Of course that will be largely dependent on any prosecution resulting and verdict.
OK, I get what you're saying but it wasn't clear. This is media error if only one margin of error is given for varying figures in the polls. This is bad form and should not be mimicked as it's entirely wrong. Possibly, as you allude to, a deliberate minimisation of (coalition) minor parties by media players – cos that's a thing.
Almost alternate facts, fudging with stats.
Huh????
Out of a couple of million marbles you pull 1,000 marbles and 36 (3.6%) of those are NZF marbles. How many NZF marbles are there in the total pool of marbles? With 95% confidence, 2.44 – 4.76%, and with 99% confidence, 2.08 – 5.12%.
Pearls, swine.
So. I guess we can say that if an election was held today there would be around a 99% chance that New Zealand First would be gone from Parliament. Your numbers would say that we have a 97.5% chance that NZF will be below 4.76% and 99.5% they will be below 5.12%.
Looks like a pretty good bet that Winnie would be gone to me.
And that is before his case was shot off to the SFO.
Well, that would be true if it were a genuinely random sample of those that would actually turn out to vote. But working out who is actually going to vote, how to contact a random sample of them, and ensuring supporters of different parties are all equally willing to answer questions is a bit harder than pulling marbles out of a jar.
Nope, but nice try 😉
Okay, let's try the moral angle. Polling companies feel constrained to provide the media with results on a sound moral basis, right?
So, if you & Hendry were right, the reports they supply, that the media corps pay for, would contain the specified different margins of error for each political party rated. Do they? Can you provide evidence?
https://www.colmarbrunton.co.nz/what-we-do/1-news-poll/
The morality stuff is off the mark, IMO.
Right, they don't specifically, but they do support Hendry's position on the issue. So when the media interpret a minor party as rating "below the margin of error" (and that is the sense in which I made my original comment), do you (& Hendry and others) tolerate the misrepresentation as normal/traditional rather than condemning them for unethical behaviour?
Bear with me on this, because any dispute on what's right and wrong with some aspect of social reality has a moral basis, eh?
That quote indeed supports Hendy and specifically includes the same numbers.
As I said before, MSM are not doing a good job IMO but it is irrelevant whether I or Hendy tolerate and/or condemn them for that. I pushed back on the demonstrable ignorance here, because I can. It is up to this site’s readers to educate themselves or stay ignorant. I can see no logical reason why one would be wilfully ignorant; fear does not seem to play a role in this, for example.
I don’t think this is primarily a moral issue but quite a simple one of correct versus incorrect use & interpretation of very basic statistics. It does raise an interesting point though as to how MSM and the general public deal/cope with really complex issues and Laws of Physics (physical constraints) when confronted with Climate Change. It is full of advanced modelling stats! Better not discuss that under this post though 😉
Edit: Oops! This is OM, duh!!
Applying the margin of error to smaller parties may well be more relevant for the simple fact that we have that 5% threshold. Applying the incorrect margin of error and digging in is highly irrational.
Based on the latest poll, we can say with 95% confidence that NZF falls below the 5% threshold (3.6 + 1.16 = 4.76%). However, 95% confidence is actually quite low because one in twenty times the true result will be outside the margin of error. If we want to be 99% confident the margin of error increases to 1.52%. In this case, we cannot exclude the possibility that NZF is above 5% (3.6 + 1.52 = 5.12%) and there’s a 1% (one in hundred) chance that the true value falls outside the boundaries of the margin of error.
These basic stats haven’t changed since 1969 and it is neither Voodoo nor bizarre.
That all reminds me why I decided back then that statistics was so tangential to real life that I had better things to do with my valuable time!
For the record, none of your reasoning seemed valid. Nothing personal. Just no logic and a bunch of abstract assertions…
I’m not taking it personal, rest assured. I’m just flabbergasted that you refuse to grasp the simple logic and sound reasoning based on foundational statistical concepts. If polls and their associated margins of errors are so tangential to real life and you have better things to do with your valuable time then why are you wasting all this time commenting on polls, which don’t mean a thing without the margin of error??
'Centrism', oft indistinguishable from trolling.
Your problem. Perception ain't reality. Centrists are typical of the public in many respects, and interpreting stats is one of those… 🙄
Embrace truthiness.
And shouldn't using this logic National's donations saga also sink its chances? If anything I would say National's behaviour was more blatant and more damaging to the integrity of the electoral system.
Yeah same logic does apply to those voters in whom the notions of fair play and ethical conduct drive their identity politics.
Tempting to read the slight downward drift in National's poll rating as due to that. But it all depends on official investigation outcomes. More people are influenced by authority than morality, and the establishment usually sanitises process and verdicts to produce the desired result. We saw that with Erebus. Official outcomes designed to protect the guilty are authoritative and an integral part of traditional democracy.
May even increase their vote. Seems to be a rightwing mindset that admires 'leaders' who get away with cheating – like Chump.
Well, that mindset exists, but I reckon only amongst those already committed politically. So I don't expect National to lift. I think the most likely outcome will be distaste amongst uncommitted voters who follow the news.
That group of centrists pays attention to what's going on, has a moral compass, and is likely to evaluate donations mishandling on their own common sense basis. Plenty will be guided by the traditional notion that `where there's smoke, there's fire' regardless of outcomes of investigations. Cover-ups cannot therefore be expected to succeed politically: often it only takes 3% of the electorate to determine an election outcome.
Not disagreeing, but isn't how the news is sold to the public important. Simon, nothing to see here. Winston, RESIGN!
You saw the voracious feral media at Jacinda's heels yesterday? Disgracefully obvious partisan pen pushers.
Shit, these details. I prefer the great ideas. What is possible versus what truth is and what the people need. I don't know that intriguing but do know what is good, like everyone.
On pollies running campaigns selling visions of things they will have precisely zero ability to actually implement …
https://www.vox.com/2020/2/10/21128617/sanders-biden-buttigieg-2020-democratic-primary-warren
Yes, it's about the US and the constraints imposed by multiple branches of divided government usually controlled by opposing parties. But the constraints imposed by NZ's MMP system are a similar handbrake on doing things here.
An almost unbelievable story we've barely blinked at. We might huff and puff for five minutes and say it's unacceptable but the reality is we're inured to this sort of behaviour:
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/119399862/hospital-failed-to-provide-proper-care-for-man-who-was-dumped-at-bus-stop-and-later-died
+1.
It's becoming quite common ( https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/409236/woman-dies-after-sub-optimal-care-following-blood-test-commissioner ) across DHBs.
People may have forgotten the "sub-optimal" treatment dished out in Waikato too.
Bean counter mentality. I've had good and bad experiences – the bad more recently after nearly a decade of the gNat's reign of terror
Worse than that, I've had far better treatment from a couple of different hospitals that are in a supposedly 3rd world country
To be fair, people in Chch were still pretty screwed up because of the earthquakes and it's not surprising that people lacked judgement after long terms stress. From research I've seen 2013 was the crunch year for people going through the earthquake (not 2011 as you would think).
I don't know what happened in this case … but in general alcoholics are very difficult to treat – being drunk and then in withdrawal can cloud what issues they have and can make the patient incredibly difficult to deal with.
Ditto … If a patient said they wanted to be discharged now (i.e. was craving alcohol), chose to leave in pyjamas and chose to go home by bus then what are the staff supposed to do? Imprison them? People are adults and are free to make bad choices but if they are competent then we have to let them make bad choices.
Ditto … if the patient came back to ED drunk and was aggressive towards the hospital staff then what are the staff supposed to do – just take it?
As I said – I don't know what happened in this case – the hospital staff could have been as appalling as the article says but, on the other hand, there are reasonable scenarios where they could have made all the right choices with the information they had at hand.
Nah … totally inured here. Auckland Hospital had multiple comprehensive goes at killing my father. Slack diagnosis, delayed admission, sent home twice, simple problem turns into a chronic one, I found him collapsed unsupervised in the ward toilet, medical staff who repeatedly refused to communicate with us, no consistent management plan, tense meetings with senior managers who then did the opposite of what the committed to in writing, eventually sent home with a canula still in his arm hidden under a bandage, nearly dies again from subsequent infection, readmitted and put on a totally inappropriate drug regime, nearly dies again … hell I can't remember all the details now. It went on for 10 months, five discharges and four re-admissions.
Eventually I realised the hospital system just didn't care, so we found a nursing home who admitted him and after 12 months of their excellent care he got well enough to go home again. That was 10 years ago.
It wasn't all bad, most of the time it was more tedious than dramatic, and I don't blame the individuals working in it; they usually looked overworked, under resourced and as much trapped by the system as the patients. In most cases it was clear they were doing their best as people. That was the frustrating part, there was never anyone to yell at, to hold accountable for the repeated failures.
After several years we finally extracted his complete medical file out of them. Pages and pages of rambling disconnected notes and jargon, there was no coherence or evidence of a plan, and none of the events that mattered were recorded. In the end we walked away from it; Dad was alive and even though his quality of life was permanently harmed, we figured we should be grateful for this and not make a misery of what we have left of his life fighting the system for years and years.
Having said this, I salute the people who followed up on Neil Jones’ appalling story. They will have a story so much longer and more aggravating than could be even outlined in this article. To get even this far is quite the accomplishment I would think.
A friend asked just yesterday in a social media post – where's the healthcare for healthcare workers. She's exhausted, they all are.
Here is the full HDC decision (which I have not read myself) behind that story: https://www.hdc.org.nz/decisions/search-decisions/2020/17hdc00497/
Yes, which answers mpledger's attempt to say that the staff's behaviour may have been appropriate in the circumstances.
They are usually detailed in their reasoning – but 7 years later is utterly taking the piss. That's not justice.
I read the report – the medical staff were clearly at fault but there were many people who tried to get him care – nurses, general public, orderlies – so I don't think it's fair to say we're inured to this type of behaviour.
I know of story after story of substandard care in Nelson hospital – so much that I'd be surprised if someone had a good experience. Feels like a deliberate strategy to drive people to private healthcare – for the lucky few who can pay.
I was at the A&E last week and saw a group of young guys come in, one was obviously in a extremely distressed mental state, I would say from the looks of it, from (bad) drug use.
An hour later I saw that they had been kicked out, they were still in the car park, the young man was quite obviously in a critically bad state, his mates were having a hard time managing him, I wanted t help, but had my own pressing emergency to take care of.
All I can assume is there was no provision at the hospital to deal that poor kid in that state, it was a for me just another sign of this countries drift to the selfish liberal end game, Ayn Rand would have approved.
Despite what I've written above, I can only side with the staff in this instance. Two of my in-laws are medical people and they've both been assaulted verbally and physically by out of control patients more times than they can be bothered counting. And when confronted with these situations, their first thought is for the welfare of other vulnerable patients being put at risk. It's a no win for everyone.
You are right, hospitals are not set up to deal with this people in that kind of state. They need to be dealt with separately in a different location and by staff trained to manage their challenges.
A padded drunk tank to sleep it off and trained psyche staff – that's how St Vinnies in Oz deal with that type of client.
The problem is that people with head injuries and people who are drunk have very similar symptoms so a lot of the time people can't be left to sleep if off.
" They need to be dealt with separately in a different location and by staff trained to manage their challenges. "
Exactly. And there are no such staff or facilities available. Zero. I have seen the exact situation described by AT myself. And know people turned away in that situation who then commited suicide or crimes.
And so even after seeing the HDC report do you still "side with the staff in this instance"?
That is my point, we live in a society where many people abuse drugs and alcohol regularly, you would think that we would have long ago made provisions to deal with the inevitable results..quite bizarre really when you think about it for a minute or two.
I agree with you that the hospital staff shouldn't be left to deal with the messy chaos that that type of abuse often results in.
You saw them in the carpark, or you saw them being kicked out?
Funny coincidental use of the term "critically bad".
If they're "critical" in the technical terminology, then they won't be disrupting the Ed department and can be treated. If they're disrupting ED, they're endangering the lives of other patients.
Now, there is an issue about providing healthcare to people in acute mental distress (not due to drugs/alcohol) vs providing that healthcare to people who are in that state due to drugs or alcohol – they might need to be held for their own safety and monitored, but ED is not the place for that. The police pick up drunks, but they're not really equipped for people who might be in danger of death – and sometimes people die in custody because of this.
Every so often there is talk of sort of an intermediate facility, where the people are monitored more closely and medical staff beyond basic first responders are available, but I'm not sure one has ever been established in NZ.
Yup. That makes total sense.
Courtesy of NewShub.
National MPs Nicky Wagner and David Carter retiring after election, Sarah Dowie will not contest Invercargill,
More rats and ships?
They seem to manage their 'refreshing' more smoothly than some other parties.
If you think getting tangled up in a sordid sex scandal that has pretty much ruined your parliamentary career counts as “refreshing” the line up then yeah sure…
Not sure having a re-selected MP resign is "smoothly"
Nobody seemed to dig into it much when Tony Ryall did the same..
Dowie is the one that was shagging the dodgy nutbar, isn't she?
Great judgement. Will be an asset in any future ventures.
I have a feeling the relevant word is 'dodgy', the rest is inconsequential.
Seven months to remove a lying political advert – the ASA is absolutely useless: https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/119414501/national-lose-appeal-over-facebook-ad-ruled-misleading
I find her general expectations totally reassuring, don't you? What a watchdog!
Beat me to it.
Just imagine the uproar if Labour or the Greens – or NZ First for that matter – left a misleading and mischievous ad running for seven months while waiting for the Authority's decision.
Not much point in a regulator that relies on parties being decent.
Well, there was the pledge card… and then Labour went and retrospectively changed the law so it was OK.
Wasn't that about the funding of it, not the content?
And Parliamentary Services had approved the spending as being lawful. The Auditor General of the day concluded it might not be lawful but he declined to order the money be returned to the parliamentary purse. Labour returned it anyway.
The Natty boys and girls do love false equivalences.
The pledge card? There's probably people voting this election who weren't even born when the righties first got their knickers in a twist over that "scandal".
From the "weird shit" files: Donny Dotard cultists are now claiming Romney voted to impeach to cover up his own connections to Burisma. Yes, this is actually happening.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/10/trump-romney-burisma-113401
If you aint with him, you're agin him. Burn the witch!
Vernon 'touchy' Tava is spending a lot on facebook ads. Today he's claiming a victory because a supermarket's addressing plastic – which has nothing to do with him and a lot to do with the work of his arch enemies – the Greens. Misleading, lying, fraudulent… I'd appreciate it if this cretin was scrutinised more closely by TS writers. Where is their money coming from? Does NZ need a party built solely as a personal vendetta. How many other women, other than my girl, has he put hands on in public?
Got to acknowledge his determination. No-one wants him so he starts his own party.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12285512
Yeah if he was altruistic he'd be interesting. As it stands he platforms on green bashing, and now claiming victory for green work. Seems vindictive and dishonest from here. And yeah, his facebook spend is not small I've seen half a dozen 'sponsored content' from the party so far, five bashing greens or greenpeace, and today's 'victory' post.
More bs from cnn.
Undecided are way ahead in New Hampshire: "Only about half of likely primary voters in New Hampshire say they have definitely decided for whom they will vote".
"Bernie Sanders holds on to his lead on the eve of New Hampshire's Democratic primary, the final CNN tracking poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center shows. In the final numbers, 29% of likely primary voters say they back Sanders, 22% back former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, 11% support former Vice President Joe Biden, 10% support Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren and 7% back Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar. The rest of the field falls at 5% or less."
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/10/politics/new-hampshire-poll/index.html
Bob Jones of to a s-s-s-s-stuttering start in his court case. Yesterday calls his own lawyer a goose for referring to him as Sir Jones, and today seems to have mis-placed his hearing aid!
A comedy of errors.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/119409179/oh-god-the-bloody-thing-is-gone-the-knight-and-the-missing-hearing-aid
I have no doubt that if Jonesie wasn't rich, this would all still be happening just the same. We have the best justice money can buy.
Senator Nina Turner gives a very good interview and makes some pertinent points on the so called " bernie bros "
Winston cut a coalition establishment deal for NZ First that gave them every opportunity to shine.
A billion dollars to ignite Provincial NZ. A launch ramp for Shane Jones to rise, the heir apparent.
That's a thousand million dollars, you'd think it would be enough to generate a 3rd page story about a young guy starting his apprenticeship, I'm not seeing them.
Do you need more money Shane, is a thousand million not enough?
Money is never the answer, it's a thing, solutions start with people and Earth.
Dear Mr Jones,
I understand you have lots of money earmarked to improve NZ. We've got a shortage of houses bro. Can you spend some of your money teaching lots of people to make houses please.
Yours in anticipation,
Vanbound
Kia Ora The Am Show.
Its good that Auckland City mission has opened a 15 beds safe whare for homeless Wahine.
That's is awesome A2 Milk donating 3 million to help fight the virus in Wuhan.
Everyone has been warned about the changes to our weather the effects of human cause climate change deniers is councils don't heed the good advice and end up in a mess.
We should treat Wai as a taonga use less for humans leave more for Our wild Wai environment.
Lloyd its cool that BP fuels Company has plans of changing to a carbon neutral company.
Yes there is to much high carbon footprint concrete in the World we need to use more engineered wood products that actually stores carbon to replace concrete were we can.
We do have to make big cuts to Aotearoa carbon footprint Transport =Electric vehicles Farming = minimise Wai use Organic food products and minimise methane products plant trees in the correct place.
Ka kite Ano
Kia Ora Newshub.
That's is cool 1000 new emergency houses and investing 300 million in providing service to the needs of homeless people.
Ka kite Ano
Kia Ora Te Ao Maori News.
That's awesome 24 million to target tangata whenua homeless people.
I think that the tangata in Maori home lands rual comunitys should be preparing for their whanau to come home.
This case of the rich man vs Wahine tangata whenua answers a question I have asked my self with the rich mans supporters.
Ka kite Ano
Kia Ora The Am Show.
We have had extreme weather events all around the Papatuanuku and still the human cause climate change deniers spin their lies.
That's was just a bit of Maori humour the photo thing.
The economy and tax take grows under a Labour lead government.
Decades ago does seem like yesterday.?????
Good on Adele for losing weight.
Ka kite Ano