Open mike 12/11/2020

Written By: - Date published: 6:00 am, November 12th, 2020 - 114 comments
Categories: open mike - Tags:

Open mike is your post.

For announcements, general discussion, whatever you choose.

The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy).

Step up to the mike …

114 comments on “Open mike 12/11/2020 ”

  1. PsyclingLeft.Always 1

    MPI…near useless…if not ineffectual.

    "Derek Robinson illegally used an electric cattle prodder on two collapsed, distressed steers, to force them out a chute and into the arena for a roping competition, at rodeos in Whangārei in 2016 and 2017."

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/checkpoint/audio/2018772381/northland-farmer-guilty-of-mistreating-animals-at-rodeo

    Good that someone took action….

    • Treetop 1.1

      Good that someone took action….

      Nothing will change unless people take action.

    • woodart 1.2

      animal cruelty seems common in the far nth. in my short time living at whatuwhiwhi, two dog fighting rings were busted, kaitaia rodeo assoc were banned from having horses(?) and 100 cows were euthanised because the cocky was useless.there were other casual unthinking acts of animal cruelty that seemed common.

      • greywarshark 1.2.1

        Were they collapsed, distressed steers? If they were, then that is bad treatment, the cattle prodding only made it worse. It seems a bit mixed up. The use of electric shock prodding should only be available to vets. But NZ has done away with limitations on many things, all that nuisance regulation, and most things are available to any jerk or jerkess, look at lasers and drones.

        It should be remembered that have had cattle prodding electric jolts used on us in mental hospitals and regarded as legitimate treatment for interfering in patterns of suicidal behaviour, used illegitimately on people for just not behaving suitably.

        The Far North has been another country, left to its own devices without government regional funding or interest for a long time. I hope this regional fund will have useful stuff for helping local business and jobs and Labour will see that it gets spent wisely this term.

        • Rosemary McDonald 1.2.1.1

          The Far North has been another country, left to its own devices …

          …and that's just the way we like it.wink

          I hope this regional fund will have useful stuff for helping local business and jobs…

          I am in the Far Far North…no shortage of jobs at all; horticultural development going gangbusters, traffic volumes increased to the point where urgent speed limit revision is required, holiday accommodation providers not complaining as workers are having to stay in campgrounds and B&Bs. Some local tradespeople would love to retire and go fishing but there's too much work…

          Don't believe the doom and gloom reports the media .We're all good thanks.smiley

          • Tiger Mountain 1.2.1.1.1

            I am in the Far North, and it is not all bad in a number of ways, but it can seem pretty bad, when you have the Mayor using a casting vote to stop Māori Wards! Mr Carter claimed a technical defence on that one, but the “Good ole Boys”, the white farmers and small businessmen of the North still like to think they run the place.

            Traffic volume is up on East Coast (SH10) in particular due to the Mangamuka highway being closed!

            There are things happening in the North like the massive Avocado developments set to rape the aquifers of the Aupouri Peninsula. Some of the Provincial Growth Projects are working out already if you scan the news and know a local community or two, and some are not, just Mr Jones hot air and patronage.

            • Rosemary McDonald 1.2.1.1.1.1

              Yep, Carter's a hasbeen, should have relinquished the baubles long since. Quite of few of his mates in the Old Boys Club (and not all of the pale, male and stale persuasion) are definitely making hay from the horticultural developments…and boy have they been squealing…

              https://www.nzherald.co.nz/northern-advocate/news/northland-aquifer-consent-delays-costing-jobs-avocado-firm-says/UMZYCF7ZMAROLBEYBPPLF6BSWA/

              We're in the heart of the avo takeover zone, although we did secure a reasonable buffer. We've sat through both of the commissioner hearings about the Aquifer, and one of the reasons we wanted to settle here is because we are truly in awe at the depth of local knowledge and expertise deployed in the fight to protect not only the Te Aupouri aquifer but the wetlands and the waterways on this thin strip of Aotearoa.

              To see work on the avo developments continuing unabated, you'd think the consents had already been granted. Just like last time.

              Heartening to see that a couple of the iwi led developments have, or are in the process of, constructing dams and containment ponds to collect rain and surface water so they are not dependent on the suck and see from the Aquifer.

        • Incognito 1.2.1.2

          It should be remembered that have had cattle prodding electric jolts used on us in mental hospitals and regarded as legitimate treatment for interfering in patterns of suicidal behaviour, used illegitimately on people for just not behaving suitably.

          Things have changed somewhat: https://www.mayoclinic.org/tests-procedures/electroconvulsive-therapy/about/pac-20393894

      • Phillip ure 1.2.2

        'casual unthinking acts of animal cruelty'….like cooking and eating them…?

        • The Al1en 1.2.2.1

          Not really cruel when they're dead and not like those other carnivores and omnivores that eat their food alive

          • Phillip ure 1.2.2.1.1

            Oh..!..apologies…I should have said 'kill,cook and eat'…and seriously..!…falling off my chair here..so it.'s not 'casual unthinking cruelty' to those animals to cook and eat them…as long as you don't actually kill them..?. .is this your p.o.v..?..so you shed all responsibilities for the cruelties done to them during their short brutish lives ..and their eventual killing..as long as said animal is inert/deceased when it gets to you.. eh..?..that is some serious washing of the hands you are doing there ..eh..?…but you aren't alone..you have just articulated it for the others..'cos 'unthinking' is the key word there..eh..?

            • The Al1en 1.2.2.1.1.1

              You can say what you like about whatever you like, even when you miss the whole point of the comment and resort to making things up.

              But ignoring all that, I'm still okay with killing and eating my food where possible – It's always been humane and without ever causing the animal to suffer, mainly out of respect to the quarry, and also, after all is said and done, stressed meat isn't tender meat.

              As Weka has noted, there is more to be done around animal husbandry, which is probably why organic free range food is undoubtedly the best eating.

            • Phillip ure 1.2.2.1.1.2

              Your 'point' was that animals to animals are cruel..so it's ok that we are cruel to them…and what did I ‘make up’. and ‘humane’..eh?..that is some serious self,-delusion you have going on there…eh..?

              • The Al1en

                Try another attempt at it? Or just stay with falsely attributing something that never existed in what I clearly wrote? Entirely up to you.

                To help you decide, here's several points you will need to consider whilst addressing what I actually wrote rather that which you think I did.

                1. I don't think cooking and eating animals is cruel.
                2. Eating a dead animal is less cruel than eating a live one.
                3. Some animals start eating other animals while they are still alive.
                4. I don't eat animals that are alive.
                5. Killing an animal by humane methods isn't an act of cruelty.
                • Phillip ure

                  Sometimes you are like a surreal comedy routine..that was one of them…I have this image of you attacking/chowing down on a variety of live animals…I'm glad you think it is good that you don't do that..heh..!..shine on! etc..

                  • The Al1en

                    I didn't really expect you to address the actual comment made, even with some helpful consideration points in order for you to formulate a credible counter, but at least it's clear which one of us tried and which one was just trying it on.

                  • Incognito

                    The image is in your head, it is not real. Please stick to the written comments and avoid getting (too) personal, thanks.

          • Tiger Mountain 1.2.2.1.2

            How did the unfortunate creatures enter their deceased state one wonders?

            Meat remains murder–sentient beings slaughtered against their will.

            • McFlock 1.2.2.1.2.1

              Quite a lot of assumption in that last sentence.

              • Tiger Mountain

                “slaughtered without their obvious consent” how does that sound then?

                Ever been in an abattoir McFlock? they do not go willingly.

                • McFlock

                  Still a house of cards resting on the nature and validity of "sentient"

                  • Phillip ure

                    Do you need a dictionary..?

                    • McFlock

                      Nope.

                    • McFlock

                      I have never thought that cows are as sentient as humans..so for you less/different sentience means it's ok to kill/eat them..?

                      If they can't know what's going to happen, and if most of their actions are basic stimulus:response events rather than abstract understanding of their environment, and especially if they don't even have a demonstrable concept of "self", then yeah, it sure lowers the moral dilemma faced when looking at a juicy steak.

                  • weka

                    otoh, humans, for all their sentience, are often stupid enough to believe that animals don't suffer or feel things.

                    (I'm ok with things dying, we all have to do it sometime, and I think the vegan argument fails to appreciate the animals that have a good life. Much to be done around animal husbandry, and the OP is a good example of how bad we still are at this. Money matters more).

                    • McFlock

                      Sure, it can definitely go both ways. Assuming no pain and thereby being callous to distress at one end (not counting the obviously cruel pricks like the farm hand caught breaking tails – no point to that unless they feel pain), and at the other end assuming every cattle truck is the equivalent of sending people to a death camp.

                    • Phillip ure []

                      No..it's sending animals to a death-camp ..no need to over-egg it..the horrors there are enough .no exaggerations needed..

                    • weka

                      most of NZ's meat eating involves suffering that we pretty much ignore. It's the middle ground that interests me, the extent to which we are willing to ignore or make change.

                    • McFlock

                      We do try to minimise the physical distress and pain, though, and much of the "suffering" described by the likes of phil seems to rely on cows being as sentient as people. As in having long term memory, understanding exactly what is going on, communicating with each other, the full "Bright Eyes"/"Animal Farm" scenario.

                    • Phillip ure []

                      I have never thought that cows are as sentient as humans..so for you less/different sentience means it's ok to kill/eat them..?

                    • weka

                      Factory farming chickens, transporting sheep in trucks long distances to abattoirs are systems that have built in suffering. We're not that good at this tbh, and that's not even close to Phil's position.

                      I don't think most animals are sentient in the way you describe, but I don't think it's a black and white thing either. Obviously there are some species that are closer to what humans experience and others that are a long way from that. There is also a lot we still don't understand or perceive (ironic that the vegans dismiss the emerging science around plant communication and experience).

                      Our idea that most animals have no sentience (instead of sentience being a spectrum) allows us to do some pretty fucked up shit. I'm not talking the individuals who are cruel to animals so much as society and the systems we design (most of which could be changed).

                    • Phillip ure []

                      Just like to note that this vegan is fascinated by the science around plant communication…

                    • McFlock

                      But again, the plants "communicating" is in the sense of "chemical release -> chemical response", from what I've read. Nothing like the abstract conversation we're having here.

                      As for stress, I suspect most NZ farmed animals have significantly-net-positive lives, regardless of whether they're aware of it or not.

                      The animals I actually worry about whether I should eat are cephalopods. Gorillas can use a mirror (have a sense of self), but I don't eat gorillas anyway. Whales can teach each other skills and most definitely communicate in a human sense, but I don't eat whales either. But I like squid rings, even if some octopusses and squid show similar signs of self-awareness and memory.

                    • weka

                      the point of bringing plants into the conversation (apart from having a pop at vegan hypocrisy) is that it's a spectrum. Where do we draw the line? How do we draw the line?

                      The other point is that science understands plant communication in a certain way at the moment, but I don't think anyone is saying there isn't more to learn, more that we haven't conceived of yet. I remember when science was saying that animals didn't have feelings. Anyone who's spent time with a pet cat or dog knows this is a nonsense.

                    • Phillip ure

                      What is there to 'appreciate'..?what am I missing..?…and that ' they had a good life'…(albeit much shortened from their natural life-span..roast lamb..?..anyone..?)..so it's ok if I eat them' is a retelling of the sue kedgely defence…the 'i only eat free range and organic..so it's ok'..(must be said with a self-satisfied tone'…)..I call that the ',I'm a good slave-owner!'-defence..and it is somewhat surprising how many of the arguments made in defence of human slavery..'rights' to own..mistreat..kill..the economic importance of…are used to justify the slavery of all other living creatures..(save for those we keep as pets..)..and of course how we are superior to them so we can do what we like to them…black slaves were deemed to be sub-human…those arguments did not justify human slavery..and neither do they justify animal slavery…and this too will pass..

                    • Phillip ure []

                      And your point is..?

                    • The Al1en

                      That calling "the ',I'm a good slave-owner!'-defence.."

                      in reference to "it's ok if I eat them' is a retelling of the sue kedgely defence…the 'i only eat free range and organic..so it's ok'.."

                      seems a bit silly since people are thought to have been rearing meat for food a couple of thousand years before slavery became a widespread thing.

                      It's like attributing cream doughnuts to some people being fat, even though some people were fat before cream doughnuts existed.

                    • Phillip ure []

                      It's nothing like that at all.i really haven't got a fucken clue what you are banging on about ..heh..!..and how it has any relevance..

            • The Al1en 1.2.2.1.2.2

              How did the unfortunate creatures enter their deceased state one wonders?

              Do you mean the Elk that has been tailed by a pack of wolves for a couple of days before collapsing exhausted and then ripped apart alive? Or the deer felled with one shot totally oblivious to it's fate?

  2. gsays 2

    I am trying to understand this situation.

    The Reserve Bank is implementing a Funding for Lending Programme.

    "The FLP is essentially a way of pumping cheap money into banks in the expectation they will pass it on to businesses and households."

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/430358/reserve-bank-holds-cash-rate-at-0-point-25-percent

    It is a long term stimulant going to a sector that is already hot. A sector that the Reserve Bank has just admitted it has failed to read:

    "As recently as the August monetary policy statement, they were forecasting negative 7 percent house price inflation for the year ended December 2020," said Westpac chief economist Dominick Stephens.

    "The latest data is clearly showing that we're going to get something more like positive 9 so they've had a 16 percentage point surprise …"
    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/430360/rbnz-caught-offguard-by-house-prices-economist

    This font of wisdom reckons giving cheap money to Australian banks, less their handsome profit, makes that money available to developers, less their handsome profit, is the best way to control inflation and stimulate the economy.

    How disconnected is the Landlord Labour Party from the rest of us? Increase benefits, spend the money at that end of the economy and try trickle up as a monetary theory.

    As someone pointed out here recently, (sorry forgot who said it) Ardern is Blair in high heels.

    • Jester 2.1

      It seems to me they are making it very attractive for investors / landlords to purchase another rental property.

      • Sabine 2.1.1

        Consider that they refuse loans to Jane/Joe Sixpack who have a. received the wage subsidy or work for company that applied for the wage subsidy due to 'not having a secure job', it seems that yes, all this Kabuki is for the profit of investors.

    • Pat 2.2

      It may not be the best way to 'stimulate' the (real) economy but it may be considered the best way to stabilise the banking and exchange rate system …..those have far more potential to impact the economy than house prices (bad as it is).

      It is all however a can kicking exercise and the end of the road approaches..

      • gsays 2.2.1

        So the 'real' economy is where the humans operate. If alleviating poverty is really a concern, spend money there.

        The other economy is one of theories, exchange rates and other fictions. Fictions these gurus have shown time and time again to not understand.

        • greywarshark 2.2.1.1

          gsays so right. Let's get people having a life and be able to sing about what they will be able to get when they spend their wages from their regular job. This is a nice song and some fun for us ordinary folks upwardly mobile times – not the K economy! With tapdancing. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rfywkvRq4Ns

        • Pat 2.2.1.2

          the 'other' economy is not a fiction…it is the basis of trade and we dont (and cannot) operate in a removed bubble, or certainly not in any way we would recognise.

    • Dennis Frank 2.3

      Soon the entire country will be wondering with you! Grant's rationalisation this morning won't be effective – yes, they're doing their job as specified by the neoliberalism ideology, but so what??

      Economist Tony Alexander says the Reserve Bank seems to have forgotten the lesson that with monetary policy greater effectiveness comes from shock announcements. “With today’s call they have basically signalled to anyone buying property that they should get it done before March comes round and the LVRs are reapplied. By doing so, they have guaranteed that the boom we have been seeing in the housing market recently will go on throughout the summer.”

      Alexander said the Reserve Bank should have made a decision on how to reinstate the LVRs and done it right away. https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/123367067/reserve-bank-guaranteed-housing-boom-will-continue-over-summer-economist-says

      • gsays 2.3.1

        If the Labour party were true to their utterances in 2016 – child poverty, neo liberalism experiment has failed most of us, then the Reserve Bank wouldn't need to show its profound lack of imagination.

      • RedBaronCV 2.3.2

        Yes taxes on petrol always went on straight away to stop too big a rush.

        But hey perhaps we could treat ourselves to a banner headline here at the Standard and a small story. Something like Standard Posters wanted LVR to remain on Investors .

        Give ourselves some street cred out there based on our previous discussions.

        • greywarshark 2.3.2.1

          If not, why not?

        • Incognito 2.3.2.2

          Feel free to doing a Guest Post but never claim or pretend that you’re speaking for or on behalf of Standard Posters; you can only speak for yourself. The Standard is not a living entity and does not have a voice as such, let alone a single voice.

    • RedBaronCV 2.4

      The RBNZ needs to ensure that home owner occupiers continue to be able to access their mortgages as interest only for several more years at least. Why should they be pushed back into the rental market when they can afford the likely to be lessor amount of interest. Saves on accomodation supplements too.

      Perhaps they could even cut owner occupiers a deal where if they have a minimal deposit they can do interest only for a few years.

    • RedBaronCV 2.5

      This lending should be targeted at keeping owner occupiers on interest only if they need it and giving interest only loans to owner occupier purchasing on a minimal LVR. Likely to actually reduce government expenditure by unwinding in some small way the accommodation subsidies straight to the landlord racket that goes on.

      • greywarshark 2.5.1

        If the accommodation subsidies could be gradually phased out – gradually! – that would be good.

        Our local Council has just sold off for $2 million? $20m? previously owned housing for pensioners etc. to a social housing entity. I don't know how that will go. I can't forget the difficulties of the age 90 parents of a commenter here. And I have read reports of others who can't get their Housing Manager to show any interest in them as people deserving a pleasant home.

        I can't see why housing of a simple sort, adequately maintained shouldn't be in a Council's remit. They take responsibility for sewerage and greywater and drinking water which usually comes from houses. People live in and need houses for which the services are provided, so why aren't houses for needy people part of the chain of requirement from Councils? The comfortably off can go into retirement villages and laugh, and ride bikes, and swim and it's eternal fun and stimulation for them. The poor have to rely on getting lucky perhaps.

        • Tiger Mountain 2.5.1.1

          Local Govt. housing should become part of the mix, as it once was, as social housing is hopefully reinstated in this country. But with the PM’s attitude to beneficiaries who knows if that is going to happen!

          It just became trendy in line with neo liberal managerialism in the late 80s/90s, for Councils to flog off their pensioner housing. Which was a great shame as that seemed such a dignified activity for local authorities to be involved in.

          • Descendant Of Smith 2.5.1.1.1

            To be fair councils were put in an invidious position with private landlords being subsidised through tax breaks and accommodation supplement and state housing subsidised through the state – even with successive governments taking out massive dividends from poor peoples rent and deferring maintenance and not building new homes as a result.

            The refusal to assist councils to maintain and upgrade housing alongside appointing right wing wankers as mayors to sell off council housing e.g. John Banks while at the same time shifting the burden of response to homelessness to them was pretty fucked up.

            In order to lift rents and to allow tenants to get accomadation supplement they were forced to transfer housing to hands off entities – which then set the houses up nicely to be sold off.

            The original accord between councils and central government that the councils would take some responsibility for housing elderly and disabled while the state picked up the rest, including working class was broken by Roger Douglas and his ilk by starting with getting rid of worker housing in the railways, MOW, education, police and so on and has simply got worse ever since then.

            I'm sure some councils have ultimately decided to sell off as a fuck you to central government – many have asked for help to upgrade and maintain their housing which ratepayers were effectively subsidising. Neither National nor Labour have helped councils.

            All those councils who have held onto their housing should be rewarded by getting a big infrastructure payment for upgrading and building more. They should be helped and encouraged. The current model being used by Labour is Thatchers and the iwi and church groups are lapping it up – just as churches did in the past with poor houses and homes for unmarried mothers.

  3. Phillip ure 3

    Cartoon idea: two panels…one showing j. ardern standing next to her opened-door (overflowing) fridge…the other showing a poor person standing next to their opened (empty) fridge….the banner reading 'the ardern years: year four'…

  4. Dennis Frank 4

    Former Trump aide Steve Bannon was banned from Twitter and Facebook last week after a horrific segment on his podcast War Room: Pandemic. Bannon said he wanted to go "back to the old times of Tudor England" where it would've been acceptable for the heads of Anthony Fauci and FBI director Christopher Wray be put on pikes outside the White House.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/top-us-diseases-expert-anthony-fauci-reacts-to-former-trump-aide-steve-bannons-beheading-call/7F2WUTD4ODXTJFSNMVMKOPHTGY/

    Rather uncouth of Bannon, even if merely stage rhetoric. Dunno why he feels the need to do it, given that Trump fired him & called him "sloppy". Get a life, dude!

    Sales asked when Fauci "realistically" expects mass vaccinations in the US, following the news from Pfizer and BioNTech that their vaccine candidate has at least 90 per cent efficacy. Fauci said it will be a "gradual process" but he expects vaccinations to start next month – "likely before the Christmas holidays". He told CNN earlier this week he expected low-risk Americans to receive the jab by April 2021, and those deemed to be at a higher risk to receive it earlier.

    Once the various vaccines coming on stream get mass usage, first thing to look for will be effectiveness of preventing infection. Expect mass media exposure of failures. Then a focus on infection rates amongst antivaxers. Darwinian culling may happen.

    • Tricledrown 4.1

      Dennis Frank anti vaxxers with out Obama Care would be more than Ironc.

    • Incognito 4.2

      Then a focus on infection rates amongst antivaxers. Darwinian culling may happen.

      You come across as somebody who’s proud of their education, culture, and general knowledge based on a lifelong subscription to Reader’s Digest.

  5. Stuart Munro 5

    Real estate is out of control.

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/123367067/reserve-bank-guaranteed-housing-boom-will-continue-over-summer-economist-says

    Just the time for a stamp duty for investment purchases. Should've been a CGT of course.

    Day late and a dollar short – if anything happens at all.

    • AB 5.1

      Had a few real estate agents ring out of the blue in the last 10 days and say that they have someone who wants to put a offer on our house (which is not for sale). I have told them very impolitely to eff off and get a real job. Every money-grubbing scum-sucker about the place is in a high state of euphoria.

      • greywarshark 5.1.1

        I feel exactly the same. Get a glossy 6 page booklet with photos and info of local real estate – goes immediately into the recycling bin.

  6. Dennis Frank 6

    Here's an insight into how the Trump stonewalling strategy is dividing the rightist establishment:

    Jones Day, one of the biggest law firms in the United States, has represented Big Tobacco and the family of Osama bin Laden, but its role in Trump's crusade to sow doubt in the 2020 election without any evidence has alarmed some senior attorneys. Some Jones Day lawyers told the Times they have had to endure "heckling from friends and others on social media" over their work, even though the firm has represented Trump for years.

    Lawyers at the firm, which represents the Trump campaign and the Republican Party, worry "about the propriety and wisdom" of working for the president, according to the Times.

    Some of the firm's senior lawyers are "worried" that Trump's lawsuits are "advancing arguments that lack evidence and may be helping Mr. Trump and his allies undermine the integrity of American elections," nine partners and associates told the outlet.

    https://www.salon.com/2020/11/11/lawyers-at-firms-representing-trump-worry-suits-lack-evidence-may-undermine-election-report/

  7. swordfish 7

    .
    Professor Jack Vowles briefly explores a few 2020 Flow-of-the-Vote stats from Vote Compass (the various swings & counter-swings going on beneath the surface of net vote movement at the Election):

    https://www.newsroom.co.nz/politics/where-did-nationals-votes-go

    Emphasises most National-to-Labour switchers in 2020 were self-identifying Centrists whose motivation was not, in fact, to keep the Greens out or prevent a Wealth Tax (indeed, two-thirds of these Nat switchers appear to be in favour of a Wealth Tax).

    .

    Meanwhile, based on Vowles %s … I've calculated the 2020 Raw Vote flow.

    Of Labour's 1,443,546 votes in 2020 …. 780k were Lab Loyalists who had voted for the Party in 2017 as well … an extraordinary 270k were National Deserters (ie had voted Nat in 2017 & switched to Lab 2020) … an equally remarkable 175k had been attracted out of Non-Voting by Labour in 2020 (they'd stayed at home in 2017) … 72k were switchers from the Greens (which, in turn, suggests an on-going massive churn in support between the two main Parties of the Left … quite big numbers swinging from Green to Labour & even greater numbers moving in the opposite direction) … and 65k from NZF deserters (representing more than a third of NZF’s 2017 support base)..

    Of NZF's 186,706 voters in 2017 … 65k moved to Labour in 2020 …. just 35k remained Loyal to NZF … 26k swung into Non-Voting … 22k swung to National (little more than a third of the number flowing to Labour) … & 15k swung to ACT (so much for the theory – resting solely on anecdotal evidence & always a bit dodgy IMO, that the Gun Lobby's re-alignment with ACT had caused the lion's share of NZF losses in Polls this year).

    Of National's 1,152,075 voters in 2017 … just over 620k remained Loyal … 270k swung to Labour (can't stress enough how unprecedented those numbers are) … 160k to ACT (there was some speculation in the immediate wake of the Election as to who were more numerous – Nat-to-Lab switchers or Nat-to-ACT switchers … well, easily the former) … just 35k former (2017) Nats went into Non-Voting in 2020.

    • greywarshark 7.1

      Thanks for that – interesting in your first para the switchers seem to be in favour of important remedial moves that the left would like the gummint to introduce. Like -'I'm higher taxes and I'll be at your service where most efficacious today' with a firm handshake and a steady grin. 'How nice to meet you, and won't you come right in', would be the response from almost all of us who still have our feet on the ground.

    • Phillip ure 7.2

      Thanks for that s.fish…very useful…

    • AB 7.3

      Fascinating. I wonder what Labour strategists looking at this will be thinking. Most likely it's how to hang on to as many of the 270k Nat switchers as possible, and convert the 175k 2017 non-voters into habitual Lab voters. And what policy or messaging conflicts (if any) are involved in doing those two things simultaneously.

      The churn back and forth with the Greens won't figure as a major concern – having permanently lost your obstreperous left to another party that has no real alternative options, is actually a comfortable place to be.

      • greywarshark 7.3.1

        Ooh that presses on a painful tender spot AB. Give me a double rainbow to look at any time when such unpalatable possible truths crop up. Look a double rainbow – what can it mean?

    • Dennis Frank 7.4

      72k were switchers from the Greens (which, in turn, suggests an on-going massive churn in support between the two main Parties of the Left … quite big numbers swinging from Green to Labour & even greater numbers moving in the opposite direction)

      I'd suspected that bothways thing. Would be interesting to compare the % of the electorate that moved each way!

      Discouraging if it means the base support for the Greens hovers at the MMP threshold. When I joined after the 1990 election where they got 7% I assumed the movement would build public support. I was wrong.

      • JanM 7.4.1

        I have to confess to jumping between Labour and the Greens and voted Labour this time because I was so scared National might get in and the Greens would be below the 5% threshhold. Daft in retrospect but my biggest fear was that National would play silly buggers with our successful covid lockdown.

      • Drowsy M. Kram 7.4.2

        Don't be too hard on yourself Dennis – you weren't badly wrong.

        It's been an unsurprisingly bumpy ride. Compare the record of voter support for the Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand to that of the German Greens whose support was somewhere between 5% and 10.7% from 1983 to 2017.
        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alliance_90/The_Greens#Federal_Parliament_(Bundestag)

        1990: 6.85% for the Green party
        1993: 18% for the Alliance (New Labour/Democratic/Mana Motuhake/Green)
        1996: 10.1% for the Alliance
        1999: 5.2% for the Green party
        2002: 7.0%
        2005: 5.3%
        2008: 6.7%
        2011: 11.1%
        2014: 10.7%
        2017: 6.3%
        2020: 7.9%

        • Dennis Frank 7.4.2.1

          Yeah but I was anticipating being up to 20% & more after 30 years. So I feel I was badly wrong! Few voters believe global warming warrants empowering the Greens.

          • RedBaronCV 7.4.2.1.1

            Even that they are there means there has to be some main party attention to those issues. If they got 0% because the job was done I could be happy about that.

          • Drowsy M. Kram 7.4.2.1.2

            How might ‘the Green party‘ persuade more voters to shift (some of) their focus away from short-term self-interest? They've already tried a number of things – keep the faith and keep trying, I reckon. The need for greater societal and environment resilience becomes more obvious with every extreme weather event, GFC or pandemic – 20% might yet be possible.

            The Silent Killer: Consequences of Climate Change and How to Survive Past the Year 2050
            We cannot compromise with the earth; we cannot compromise with the catastrophe of unchecked climate change, so we must compromise with one another.” – Gordon Brown, former UK PM

            "Our guiding theoretical principle is that people face a conflict between short-term self-interest and longer-term collective interest, which, as noted earlier, is often referred to as a social dilemma. We illustrate that interventions at the level of individuals, communities, and governments are necessary."
            https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/9/3757

            "Labour assumes the sentiment of social solidarity seen during the COVID-19 lockdown will persist. National is counting on voters opting for short-term self-interest."
            https://www.wgtn.ac.nz/news/2020/09/the-ideology-and-psychology-behind-tax-promises

            "For all the talk of time running out and climate emergencies, voters remain as likely to be swayed by short-term self-interest and the promises of the two biggest parties (including on Brexit) as ever, rather than see the big picture the Greens are painting."
            https://www.gq-magazine.co.uk/politics/article/green-party-leader-interview

            • Dennis Frank 7.4.2.1.2.1

              Yes, you've comprehensively identified the most relevant part of political psychology in the situation.

              How might ‘the Green party‘ persuade more voters to shift (some of) their focus away from short-term self-interest?

              In a word, advocacy. Persist in that. Use the technique the ad industry uses (repetition of message). You know the reason the Greens aren't doing it?

              At the risk of irritating you, I'll point to a popular leftist syndrome. Assuming something is so evident that people know it already.

              You can see how the link twixt climate change and politics implies the latter gets used to deal with the former, eh? Failed in geopolitics in the early years of the millennium. Then what? Nothing. No plan B.

              Blame the Greens for giving up & joining the major parties in recycling 19th century politics as if the global problem can be avoided? Yes, I do. My membership renewal request has already arrived in the Windows trash bin…

              • Drowsy M. Kram

                Yes, "persist" – keep the faith and keep trying.

                The Greens‘, you and I are responsible for our decisions and their consequences. Making the best decisions we can (as we see things) and then acting on them is all any of us can do.

                For example, it was a good political decision to strongly contest the Auckland Central electorate. Had it been my decision, I would have partitioned more resources towards garnering the party vote – just as well it wasn't my decision.

                At the risk of irritating you, do you believe that "Assuming something is so evident that people know it already." is a particularly leftist syndrome? I can understand why it might be convenient to believe such, depending on the axe you grind.

  8. greywarshark 8

    An interesting in depth article in stuff in The Press today by Steve Kilgallon. Buy The Press and see it – Ministry shuts the door on small firms o or it will no doubt be on PressReader sometime later. It pictures the Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment (or MoBIE as I cynically call it) and talks about procurement rules in NZ. This is a rather long discursive comment a bit tl:dr, but the subject is important so don't miss The Press article as an informative and important read.

    It is about the way that government operations close the door on small NZ firms wishing to interact and do business with government and instead seeing a near impenetrable door behind which deals are done with large multi-national companies. The door is not a portcullis, which at least can be seen through. It is a barrier that it seems you have to throw yourself against many times before anything can happen.

    (Probably the small-biz warriors vent their frustrations by playing those on-line games where you traverse hostile territory and look for supply points where you can gain health, weapons, food and water supplies or invisibility cloaks. After they have gained some mana on the game's league table they can go into the real world and try once again.)

    We in NZ must fight for our survival. Once blasted Labour Lites opened the gates and let the horse of Troy in, the myriad of financial minions have poured out and will smother us. (They can not even be compared to leaches, which are valued for medical treatments.) Also we have been prevailed upon to sign up to agreements ensuring little us the right to trade with the world's billions. Equality eh, the level playing field, and a number of other folksy expressions that veil the truth, that we have let down our fellow citizens and our country's sovereignty to enable access to all the pretty things and manufactured that can be obtained overseas.

    If you remember the folk tale from childhood, the young woman could marry the prince if she could turn straw into gold fibres, and Rumplestiltskin enabled that in exchange for her relinquishing her first-born son. That was only avoided by a lucky break. Smart people don't rely on luck. I mention this simple childish tale because it only appears simple, and we seem to have a mentality of children. It is right on the nail. We need straw, gold is an extra, and we need to have work for all NZs, not unhappy disenfranchised anomic drifters. We should not be manipulated by Australian and other banks, and by pension funds from all the world, and wealth-creating moguls from everywhere who will suck us dry of every resource if there is money in it. This is war, in a mild form, perhaps it is The Phony War of the Early 21st Century.

    Past centuries' history shows us that our human behaviour tends to be cyclical. I thought of the Punic Wars ending in 146 BC. We could be in Sicily's place in a modern similar war. So get smart in our thinking and doing for ourselves.

    The Punic Wars were a series of three wars between 264 and 146 BC fought by the states of Rome and Carthage. The First Punic War broke out in Sicily in 264 BC as a result of Rome's expansionary attitude combined with Carthage's proprietary approach to the island. Wikipedia

    • RedBaronCV 8.1

      Preston in the UK was looking at strategies to rebuild it's local economy and one of the things places that received state money like the hospitals and schools did was break down the size of the contracts so that locals could compete easily. It's made a steady difference.

      But hey this is Mobie – rumour around the 'hood suggests they long for the neo rightist days and act accordingly. A decent restructure would not go amiss – a lot of mid aged managers have never operated outside that sort of frame work and need fresh leads.

      IMHO labour has been very remiss in not replacing a lot of nationals appointments just leaving them in place. More on tht some other time.

    • RedBaronCV 8.2

      I've had a good read of the article. Mobie could have an application system that you can apply to join at any time and all you have to have is no negative strikes. e.g you register as overseas owned or local, you follow labour law, have climate change policies in place plus health and welfare options available to your staff or are based in a country that has these welfare and ethical settings, pay your Paye, pay local income taxes and ACC in proportion to your trading here , some requirements about the amounts remitted overseas to stop offshoring jobs unnecessarily. I have to give this some more thought but I'm sure the field could be nicely skewed in local favour without any violations of trade treaties. Other countries do it and we would be fools not too. Plus renegotiate those treaties to be trade not interference in local standards.

      • greywarshark 8.2.1

        You say other countries already do it!! Let's start copying other countries good ideas instead of their dud ones.! I thought that instead of the panel that small people could gain gold or silver stars for their performance, if they met the NZ owned criteria ie so that the money stays here and is paid to NZ workers. I think that would come after your application idea.

      • Descendant Of Smith 8.2.2

        Just let local managers make the decisions and use local firms.

        Joyce's centralised purchasing across government could only benefit large firms to the detriment of local firms – many of whom get subcontracted now for a pittance cause the contract holder has no staff in the town that needs the work down. In some cases as education has found local firms are refusing to do repair work on school buildings that leak, etc as an out of town, often Auckland firm, built the building in the first place.

        Motels however are busy with out of town tradesman doing annual visits to clean air conditioning units…….

    • Ad 8.3

      Inhale into a paper bag for a bit.

      All major public contracts ive seen have local and iwi hire requirements.

      MBIE arent major capex procurers usually.

      • greywarshark 8.3.1

        Well the article raises good points. So time for in or exhaling is not yet. Things have to change if we want change. When we can see it happening then it is time to relax a little. But time is of the essence.

        I read this on Scoop the other day which illustrates how time can pass away like water under the bridge. And a meeting happens. More water downstream. Another meeting to discuss matters not encompassed at the first meeting. etc.

        http://wellington.scoop.co.nz/?p=132264
        Five years of not getting us moving November 5, 2020
        But its five year history shows that research and consultation is followed only by more of the same. Having asked us this year what we wanted for the Golden Mile, LGWM admits that it had also asked us last year, when “… Wellingtonians told us what they wanted to see on the mile that runs from Lambton Quay to Courtenay Place.”

        We told them this year. We told them last year. And it was the same in 2018 – after prolonged public consultation in 2017, the LGWM programme director announced that

        “We’ll use the feedback to help guide our work as we develop a recommended programme of investment.”

        • In Vino 8.3.1.1

          Your analogy… I don't quite see how Sicily benefitted from Roman invasion, and did not those Roman bastards slaughter Archimedes?

          • greywarshark 8.3.1.1.1

            Sicily didn't – it ended up a pawn, and it could happen to us all these years later. We could end up like Sicily – in the middle with bigger polities fighting for possession of us. It didn't turn out well for Sicily. They got the Mafia didn't they with dominance over the people. I'd be thinking of Danilo Dolci rather than Archimedes.

      • Descendant Of Smith 8.3.2

        "All major public contracts ive seen have local and iwi hire requirements."

        Seen any monitoring or accountability to see whether it happens? MBIE don't even have people, until recently where there is a few, out in the regions to check. Think about who put in your fibre for instance.

  9. roy cartland 9

    Here's a familiar theme in this Independent article:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-2020/bernie-sanders-elizabeth-warren-biden-cabinet-b1721241.html

    Apparently, voters wanted less progressive measures, and more of the same old. Just like the NZ Labour excuse this time round.

    • greywarshark 9.1

      In fact that could be true – less progressive measures wanted. I think that all are looking for some sort of stability. The governments state or central, have delivered them uncertainty, cities that have gone bankrupt which was unheard of, and the ugly face of neolib appears everywhere in some form.

      With their religious bent they have bent and twisted themselves in many different ways, without finding the way less trod! And so gone backwards. I've just put a song from Oklahoma 1955 up. That sort of image of the past could be very beguiling. What has modernity done for us could be the thought. The government has messed too many nests and left what for the occupants?

    • Ad 9.2

      With Senate too tight for numbers, and plenty of marginal Congress seats, you cant pull them out to be in Cabinet.

      So they will need older or non-elected Cabinet heads.

      Shock maybe even public service heads!

    • Andre 10.1

      That one new community case with no known connection to the border or any cases isn't alarming by itself. Especially since that person has apparently had a somewhat solitary lifestyle lately.

      The scary question is who did they get it from, and who else has got it or is gonna get it from that unknown source.

  10. greywarshark 12

    This is our government under the neolib evil spell. People have to fit into whatever the malign agency that runs things rules. They are contracted by a very casual government (about ordinary people).

    …"They put 20 women, closely confined, all of them double bunked, only out of their cell for a couple hours a day, which they can do their washing in a wing with no facilities to wash the clothes including their undergarments."

    The inmates were forced to use a communal bath to wash towels and clothes before stringing the dripping items along their cell window ledges.

    Taylor said the women could also choose to use their allotted four-minute daily shower to wash both themselves and belongings.

    "This includes not only their clothes but towels and items of that nature…

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/430428/auckland-region-women-s-corrections-facility-rejects-inmate-claims-about-broken-facilities

    If all that is true, or even part of it, i do not consider that is the way that prisons should be run. Do better NZ Government and whoever is in charge of Corrections, make a bloody nuisance of yourself to these humanoid managers and get them to execute properly; perhaps hara-kiri would be appropriate.

    • Treetop 13.1

      Maybe correspondence to Biden could be resent in a secure way somewhere else.

      I saw something about Trump wanting to have his own TV station. What would he call it? He would become so absorbed in Biden and his policies.

  11. Dennis Frank 14

    Georgia's secretary of state announced Wednesday that the state will conduct an audit of the 2020 presidential race, recounting by hand the millions of ballots cast in the state … Raffensperger's announcement comes as he has faced pressure from President Donald Trump's campaign for a recount, calls from fellow Georgia Republicans to resign and accusations of mismanaging the election process.

    Earlier this week, the two GOP senators, Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue, fighting for reelection, demanded Raffensperger resign from office, accusing him without evidence of failing to "deliver honest and transparent elections."

    Raffensperger said he expects the recount to be done in time for Georgia's certification of the presidential results, which has a November 20 deadline.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/11/politics/georgia-full-state-recount-2020-presidential-race/index.html

    • observer 15.1

      It's funny how "personal responsibility" is a sacred thing in the abstract, but the authorities are to blame when it is put to the test.

      Anyone who's worked in a large office/apartment building knows what happens when there's a fire alarm … many people patiently wait in the allotted place, but many others don't, or even ignore the alarm completely. They are not physically prevented from standing at point A instead of point B. They are expected to show that "personal responsibility" that they crave.

      I suppose the police and NZDF could be controlling every crowd, with powers to enforce, arrest, fine, etc. Whereupon there would be cries of "Dictator Jacinda", "nanny state" and other witless whines, usually from the same people who say "shambolic"… and "personal responsibility".

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