The first is entitled ‘Why Silicon Valley billionaires are prepping for the apocalypse in New Zealand’
It part of the Guardian’s ‘Long read’ section and provides a lot of insight into Thiel, libertarians, their hatred of Winston Peters and tells about the company traitor Roger Douglas keeps.
One quote.
Byrt, who drew my attention to these passages, had even turned up evidence of a property deal in the mid-1990s in which a giant sheep station at the southern tip of the North Island was purchased by a conglomerate whose major shareholders included Davidson and Rees-Mogg. Also in on the deal was one Roger Douglas, the former Labour finance minister who had presided over a radical restructuring of New Zealand economy along neoliberal lines in the 1980
Wealth does not mean smarter. Chump Trump inherited his. The rich are just as gormless as the rest of us, fads happen to them too. Nz will get badly hit by climate change, the only place I figure off the top of my head that will improve, become a bread basket for the world, is the Simpson desert.
‘Is this the end of capitalism? US Federal Reserve financial safety net is gone.’
and starts in an arresting fashion
Say your prayers. We no longer have a lender of last resort fully standing behind the global financial system. The US Federal Reserve is prohibited by law from carrying out precisely those emergency actions that halted contagion and a worldwide collapse in October 2008.
It continues to explain why capitalism is in trouble and why the oncoming crash will not be mitigated until it comes to its scathing conclusion.
While one branch of western governments has created this leviathan of leverage and interlinked global asset speculation, another branch has called into question whether there will be a lender-of-last resort when the moment of reckoning finally comes. Just brilliant.
Simon Wilson makes sensible suggestions to remedy Auckland’s transport woes.
His 5 point plan
1. Create as many new dedicated bus lanes on main routes as possible. Forget permanent markings: use road cones.
2. Add as many more buses and trains as possible, right through the day, well into the night and over the weekends. Target all those big events.
3. Exclude general traffic from selected inner-city streets. Convert them to bus parks and bus routes, and allow service vehicles too. (More buses is a short-term solution, for many reasons, including that there’s nowhere to put them when they get to town. Bring on the light rail and more trains.)
4. Improve the service: good visible security and how about food and other vendors on the platforms?
5. Launch a great new marketing campaign to get people to leave their cars at home if they can. Include schools.
I’d say start to solve the transport/housing/pollution/infrastructure/poverty crisis by stopping immigration and stepping down tourism.
Nope, thought not, the screams from businesses needing to be paid $20k for a job visa will be huge, the multinational hotels and casinos, not having their cheap exploitable labour!
No of course make the local poorer people pay!
Often comments about getting more people on public transport are from people who live in the inner city and central suburbs – how about some of these AT execs randomly go from 100 different locations in the supercity in particular the outlying ones and work out how long it will take on public transport, how to get from the house to the public transport etc and then from work to another place in the city. Then do a return journey and do it for a week. See the average time it takes.
Remember the Patrick Renolds types who probably commute less than 5 minutes per day telling everyone what they should do. Get some people who actually do commute from different locations and people who don’t, time it, should be a start!
I went on a bus about 12km and it regularly takes about 45minutes that’s in inner city type suburbs. It’s not traffic it’s just the routes they take and waiting times for buses!
Then go from west Auckland, south Auckland, north shore and east Auckland and see how long it takes. If you have hours up your sleeve in your life, to take the buses good for you! The trains are much better but only go on selected routes and by all accounts are well used and successful.
With all the construction in the centre I had to ask 3 drivers who did not know at all where the bus stop had moved to last time I tried to bus back.
Also suggest someone at transport starts to swab some of the new buses for hazardous materials because I went on a newish bus that smelt like it had been made from e waste plastic.
With their order of asbestos trains who know where they are getting them from. Have they checked the safety of the buses interiors?
Nice to see another Simon getting sensible and finally climbing out of a bubble.
Perhaps next time he might be honest enough to acknowledge a pleb or too now he’s reached the heights of the legit 4th Estate acceptance. Maybe (hopefully longevity and experience) has shown him its no substitute for a glass or two of Chard and A kathryn Ryan and David Russell.
I find it hard to take him seriously though I acknowledge he’s improving with age…though I’m probably a bit biased having experienced the Burma Rd polished concrete floors and the painful freakouts and truthiness on his taking a Jolly Green Giant
Finally, Brian Fallow looks at a disturbing trend.
Another reminder that this government cannot afford to tinker.
Unless radical action is taken to undo the damaging structures that underpin neoliberalism, our problems are not going away.
‘Retired & renting – the trend isn’t comforting.’
The risk is growing that we will see more and more older people living in housing-related poverty.
That is one conclusion of the Stocktake of New Zealand’s Housing released this week. It reflects a toxic combination of trends.
One is the declining rate of home ownership, which means that more of the 65-plus age group will be renting — and that age group is growing apace as the population ages.
All the financial advisers were advising how great it was to rent in your retirement a while back and ‘free up’ your money. Yep, take all financial advice with a pinch of salt. 90% of time they are just paid to sell financial products.
Treasury warning that it might lead to fewer sales. On the other hand, some landlords have been threatening to sell all their properties if changes to tenancy laws are enacted.
Of course, now it’s the end of ‘Capitalism’ (“show me some!”), I expect all fiat currencies will collapse by say, next Thursday, so there won’t be a housing market at all /sarc.
Only 18 months ago we were in such a real estate froth that a full hard landing appeared inevitable.
Both governments have managed to deflate this slowly but surely.
It will take several years, but they have bought a little time for foolishly overstretched Kiwis to pay down private debt rather than perpetually reaching for more.
Debt is still cheap. Solution: raise interest rates. Consequences of raising interest rates: negative equity, foreclosures, etc. I like to be optimistic, and I know that short term optimism is usually stupid and wrong 🙂
‘Both governments have managed to deflate this slowly but surely.’Thank god it didn’t deflate too much before John Key cashed up in Parnell.Fantastic price,buyer had a chinese sounding surname,too.
@ Ad, Yep blame the “foolishly overstretched Kiwis to pay down private debt rather than perpetually reaching for more”.
The poor are poor because of bad decisions, those that are forced into private debt to afford a house are ‘foolish’, the government leads the way of course.
I guess the smart ones, are ones who buy in NZ for cash I expect.
Listening to Chump spouting his trite, hypocritical, predictable phrases about the latest school shooting in Florida strung together in his inimitable fashion just now on RNZ nearly made me throw up.
America is one family in our grief – tick
No school pupil or teacher should have to go through this – tick
We’re standing with you – tick
Anything you need – tick
Meaningful gun control to try to minimise the chances of this happening again as it has once a week on average for the past five years – didn’t hear that bit.
The USA is a sick society that seems incapable of keeping its citizens safe, A failed state.
This guy says 11 in the last 23 days and offers some insight into what he sees as cruel individualism that he calls stoicism. The breakdown of social connection and caring.
Americans fear that gun control will means people will come into their homes and take their guns.
This is exactly what should happen.
this is the 8th, school shooting this year and the white houses responses to say “So many signs that the Florida shooter was mentally disturbed, even expelled from school for bad and erratic behavior. Neighbors and classmates knew he was a big problem. Must always report such instances to authorities, again and again!”
thats right, snitch and blame the victims and the community, people always say “he was a loaner”or “I knew this would happen” its a coping mechanism to categorize grief and well documented as being meaningless, no-one know the hearts of humankind and trump’s suggestion would waste police resources on pointless persecution instead of tackling the real issues.
It’s always been the guns, it always will be the gun’s and by presidential order you need to get the law enforcement to stop chasing immigrants, go into peoples homes are take the guns away.. luckily even some americans are starting to see that.
a white supremacist group has claim responsibility and “trained” the shooter, which trump ordered law enforcement to scale back on and it solely focus on Islamic groups.
and the FBI had a tip off from a you tube comment that was reported, but they could not ID the account holder. (even though his name was on the comment and school records are digitized/searchable, including past attendees.)
“It’s always been the guns, it always will be the gun’s and by presidential order you need to get the law enforcement to stop chasing immigrants, go into peoples homes are take the guns away.. luckily even some americans are starting to see that.”
I politely disagree. It’s about the lack of licensing. We have licences here, and it by and large gets it right in terms of who does or doesn’t get a licence.
What both centrist liberals and the progressive left in the USA need to do is work together to assemble the legal argument that gun licensing is not unconstitutional, and that the second amendment right to bear arms can be reasonably qualified by using licencing to better ensure the collective right to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.
The American right will often argue that firearms owned under the second amendment do guarantee the rights derived from the first amendment – but misused, they can also threaten those rights.
So what interests me here is seeing how this issue could reawaken the American left and liberal political and legal thought around the constitution, which hasn’t really galvanized them all that much over the last few decades. But Trump has actually reawakened constitutionalism on the left. The so far successful resistance to the travel ban was proof that States Rights is not a frivolously conservative cause. Now it’s time for the American left to see what else they can accomplish when they respect their actually very robust constitution.
I offer a rebuttal, I agree licensing should be an option, but that doesn’t address the amount of guns in the hands of people who should not have them, this only addresses future sales (and gun ownership laws/licensing is done on a state by state basis, what your talking about would need to be federal)
There are two problems,
1) Lax gun ownership laws/licensing
2) the sheer amount of firearms in the US (a study in new york found that there are 102 legally owned guns per 100 people)
its too easy for the mentally disturbed or those with past criminal history to get guns, licensing increases would only fuel a blackmarket. You need to actually removed and destroy existing stocks of firearms.
A) That licensing is necessary because there are certain people who must never be allowed to own firearms of any kind on mental health grounds, or on grounds of having a criminal record.
B) Yes, there will be some shortcomings, and this one is the most significant, you’d have to either live with that, or address it with issues ranging from a buyback, to more coercive options which may in themselves cause trouble. I’m honestly open to good ideas for how you do that. But in the meantime, licensing at sets you up for a better future than a numbing repeat of the past – or present.
You’re correct it would need to be a federal law, states don’t just have their own gun ownership laws, they have their own constitutions. It wouldn’t be practical to take it on that way. You’d be looking for a federal move and it would end up being fought all the way to the supreme court, which is why you’d want some good legal minds combing over the Federalist Papers and the like to have a good argument which shows that licensing would be in keeping with the general framing of the constitution.
Only thing I feel like I disagree with in your rebuttal – though it’s not to a point I think either of us need to dig in over – is that I don’t know that the quantity of weapons in existence bothers me all that much. You can only carry so many at once, and you can only use one at a time (ok yes you can run around with a pair of pistols, but I guarantee that’s not working out for you like it does in a Hollywood film).
When it comes to a psycho doing their thing, I’d be more concerned about the guy who has drilled himself repeatedly with hours of range time on one favourite rifle and is packing a practical selection of spare mags which he’s used and checked repeatedly, rather than the standard mass shooter situation where guy goes off with gym bag full of guns he’s never used and mags he’s never tested, gets a jam two mags into his shooting spree, then blows his own brains out in a panic, leaving two unfired long arms, four unfired pistols, and a couple thousand rounds of unused ammo lying on the ground in the bag. Kind of a quality is more dangerous than quantity thing.
Still, I can see where you’re coming from in terms of the less there is in existence, the less there is to make its way into the wrong hands. That side of things does make sense and if that’s the sense in which you’re arguing for it, then I think the best option is a buyback than confiscation given the political culture you’d be dealing with. Expensive but necessary.
But as on that same article, gun restrictions did work so they can be used in combination, unfortunately US’s issue is far more problematic they have a lot more guns than australia and alot more people with the mentality that “guns are our rights” and “Need them to protect” Neither of which are true in a strict sense.
If the US did a buy back I would hypothesize that the NRA would launch a massive marketing campaign that would mean very little guns would be “bought back”
I honestly think the only option as this point would be acquisitions, then you can implement licensing laws etc.
I agree that buybacks have mixed results – but I do wonder in the Australian case how many of the firearms used there to commit crimes may in fact have been smuggled in by organized crime networks since the post-Port Arthur laws and buybacks, and may have never been legally owned in the first place. But that’s just conjecture on my part, I have little to go on based on that report.
Still, it would seem to me that the combination of going as far as you can with buy backs and reforming future ownership through licensing is as good as it gets.
“I honestly think the only option as this point would be acquisitions, then you can implement licensing laws etc.”
One thing: when you say ‘acquisitions’, you do mean ‘confiscations’, right? You mean a mass program of law enforcement agencies entering people’s homes to confiscate their weapons, right? Or something else?
Sorry for the late reply, but yes, I think if you went beyond a buyback and tried for mass confiscations, you’d get violence on an epic scale, and worse still probably resistance from law enforcement themselves.
Your right, but it’s unfortunately one of the only options left.
I was reading an article this morning about the recent school shooting and an interview with the parent, one thing that struck me as odd, “after a recent burglary They bought guns”
this epitomizes the issue, instead of adding new lock or security measures they decided firearms were the correct response, not for hunting but home defense. Stats show that firearms used in home defense are more likely to be used on the owners than the offender, as much as everyone thinks they are rambo, guns are pretty stupid weapons to use for home defense, deception, deterrents and outside intervention (police, security patrols) is far better and more effective.
But in the US, they feel they NEED guns as a form of protection from “burglars” instead of what other western nations do which is add deterrents, guns have become so much of a part of the culture that not having them is seen as weird.
But it’s quite obviously from an outsider’s perspective the cause of alot of the issues, it’s not a root cause(mental health support, the recent school shooter could not get psychological help because of the cost) but it is something that could be controlled easily with simple legislation.
yes they do, simple controls and checks as well as licensing means mass shooting happen much more infrequently.
A fun fact, Last year in the US there were more gun deaths in the US than in the entire world combined (this includes war zones)
SO what’s the difference between the rest of the world and the US, Gun control, even making getting a firearm as hard as applying for a drivers license reduces gun violence and mass shootings quite a lot, when australia introduced gun control in just two decades following the reforms, the annual rate of gun deaths fell from 2.9 per 100,000 in 1996 to 0.9 per 100,000 in 2016, there reforms were prompted after the 1996 Port arthur massacre. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Port_Arthur_massacre_(Australia)
Aust has not had a single mass shooting since, gun deaths are down and there is no corresponding uptick in attacks by other types of weapons (mass bombings etc) So guns are the issue.
As a former firearms licensed holder here in Oz, gun ownership is up and firearm thief is on rise especially in the small arms aka pistols or illegal importation of them. It the illegal use small arms in the hands of the criminals that causing most if not of the firearm related deaths here in Oz.
My license was suspended when I had run down the rabbit with my PTSD, and no access to them anyway as they locked up and the lads had change the codes to the vaultand the safe for the Magazine keys.
Genter and Nash need to have a chat on driving and recreational drug use. Genter was weak in the House yesterday. NZTA are rolling out a campaign on drug-impaired crashes. Police support it.
Needs political alignment, fast, before the debate infects the legalisation legislation.
Weak in what way? If it was “weak” in the sense of wanting to find out the nature and extent of the problem before jumping on a NZTA/Police anti-drugs bandwagon, then great – let’s have a lot more of that kind of “weakness” from our ministers.
that was really interesting. Gender looks like she’s covering all the bases well, so I’m also not sure what Ad is on about. Not sure why he is criticising Gender instead of Nash, but it thought she handled that question well.
Anyone know what the impairment test is that the police already use?
Ad, why did you feel Genter was “weak” ?- I watched and agree with those here who thought her responses appropriate. She’s sharp.
Edit: I see alwyn’s snarky comment and get that he’s curmudgeonly, but you Ad? Why the negativity? What did you see?
From reading scoop last night she was all over it like pickle heat after 12hrs of wearing body armour. What got me was the fact she using evidence base lead facts to support her case unlike the other muppet shooting his mouth off. Is that typical of Mr Nash BTW?
Morning Breakfast people We should make our own choices in what policy we legerslate into law and not let USA dictate what we do. I charge my opinion of people as I learn more think more about them Obama does not make my top ten humane people I admire. He knows exactly what shonky key was doing to Maori and Atoearoa he still let shonky gain influence from his associationing with Obama. The American president gets privy to most information he knows exactly what shonky was doing. Ana to kai.
Ka kite ano
You give the US way to much credit, Who cares about NZ, in the scope of the world we are nothing, we barely rate as a world power, we have little population, almost no economic capital, no military to speak of. We may think were “hot stuff” but were not.
I still cannot login to TS from my macbook on Firefox. I get a bad request notice. then when I just try to access TS mainpage, I get the same notice – something about cannot find server.
It also seems to infect any attempt to login from Safari on my macbook for 15 minutes or so.
Please cut and paste the two error messages into a comment.
Can you please try doing a test comment using this protocol and let me know what happens?
– Make sure you are logged out
– Delete browser cookies
– Restart browser
– Make a comment with same user name but a different email address (make one up, or put 2 after your email name before the @, so you can tell them apart. TS doesn’t require valid email addresses)
– First comment will go into spam, because you are considered a new user
– Subsequent comments should go through ok
That sounds very optimistic if she is anything like my wife.
My using her tablet would be almost the equivalent of me going through her handbag.
You will notice I said “almost the equivalent” not “like me”.
I would never dare touch either object.
Lyn may be a much more obliging lady.
There’s been shit happening all day @ caroyn. Timeouts. Site un reachable. Bearing in mind tho I’m 8.5 hours behind…. but @ lprent. i wouldn’t get my knickers in a twist over a temporary network glitch that would force an obsessive/compulsive into redesigning a whole system.
The browser app is left running in a tab for a long time (overnight) and continues to make background requests via JS.
At some point, the session times out and it starts receiving redirects to refresh its session. Each of these requests is setting a new state cookie.
The Javascript code doesn’t handle this case, so it just keeps blindly sending requests and accumulating state cookies until it exceeds the max request cookie size limit and starts getting 401 errors
Clearing cookies in the browser is a working stopgap.
Yeah I did, I thought it’s the wet season/ local storms playing havoc again with the Internet today, but I was to log on to my usual other Kiwi haunts after I did the house work today
it helps when you do it for a living 🙂 the companies I work for runs 26 Ecom sites, some have wordpress integrations, it was fun looking of the page source for this state seeing how the .js was implemented.
@ greywarshark (11.2.1.2) … same here, I was unable to access TS all afternoon. Was only able to reach it this evening. Something about a problem with the local network. Other sites were fine.
Thought the Blue gremlins had sabotaged TS for a while there!
Me too. And ex Kiwi you are in Oz aren’t you?
I kept thinking of things I wanted to comment on and was discombobulated to be cut off in my prime so to speak.
weka OIDCUnAuthAction 401 needs to added to the .js path at the .html level, its not something the user needs to do, this is a site dev fixes for the known firefox bug.
I wanted to see what happened when Carolyn commented without logging in (there is a bug that affects people with logins when they try and comment without logging in).
Lissa Lucas the women who was dragged off the podium and not allowed to speak no more at a hearing on minerals, speaks to Jimmy Dore. 19.10 minute video. Centerists should avoid, as this involves a discussion on removing money from politics, and it might just hurt their feelings.
Tax cuts. Inflated property prices & rents further fuelled by hyper-immigration. Wage suppression through hyper-immigration. Don’t ask to me to go on, please!
The government’s legislative program can be found on Parliament’s website. You’re the one whining, so it’s up to you to say where you think it’s deficient.
Or you can continue to be a lazy and passive-aggressive concern troll.
Nope.
No press release to match your requirements.
No phone calls to tell caucus members how to suck eggs.
Probably not so much as a peep.
And no “excuse” needed at all.
Why, I hear you concern troll?
Because the Greens have been doing this longer and more successfully than you have. Not only do they not need your advice or to meet your demands, following it would result in a constant, bland whining about the smallest procedural, regulatory, and supervisory events that most bureaucrats wouldn’t want to envisage, and it would therefore give the greens the electorate appeal of a small off-yellow puddle of cat puke.
Well, mostly because it’s an expectation that the Greens should serve your priorities and expectations, and if they do not satisfy your expectations 100% then they are being inadequate in some way. Check that privilege.
But I also suspect that if the Greens had released a statement abouteach corrections report released that day, you would have found some other government publication or media event that the Greens had failed to give attention to, and you’d have written another of your boilerplate demands about that.
So in order to prevent these formulaic criticisms from you (and only you), the Greens would be releasing 2k press releases a day about the most minute crap imaginable, and their actual priorities would be lost in the flood.
“Well, mostly because it’s an expectation that the Greens should serve your priorities and expectations…”
Seriously? Your logic is messed up. I’m far from the only person concerned about the state of our prisons. Moreover, I’m sure the Greens don’t condone the failings highlighted in the reports. So to suggest it’s only my expectation they publicly address these findings is totally ludicrous.
Evidently, it’s your attempt to diminish this failure by the Greens by painting it as solely my expectation.
And no, I don’t expect them to release a press release over the most minute crap imaginable.
Damned near every day you have something that you believe the Greens need to “up their game” on. If not them then Labour.
The issue isn’t that you care about prisons. The issue isn’t even that you think the Greens should have paid it more attention. The issue is that you ignore what they do say in order to criticise that they haven’t addressed your issue of the day.
If I were a cynic, I’d say that it’s interesting how you’re always finding the thing that day that the Greens didn’t comment on loudly enough for your satisfaction. It’s almost like you look at their daily activities and then look through the news for something they haven’t mentioned.
The fact there are a number of issues frequently requiring our attention is largely a reflection of their failings and the overall mess our country is in.
Nor is it merely my belief there are certain issues requiring them to up their game.
When it comes to them getting it right, clearly they don’t require help, hence I largely don’t bother commenting. There are plenty of cheerleaders for that. Unfortunately there is not as many when it comes to holding their feet to the fire. Which, as voters we should feel obliged to do.
I genuinely care about the issues raised, which is why I raise them. Moreover, they are not just my issue of the day.
Take these two reports, I didn’t make them a media story. And if you follow the news and Green Party press releases, you’ll see there is a lot of news they don’t comment on. Hence, a lot I don’t pull them up on.
And yet you still turn up regularly with your quota of complaints.
Your choice of the expression “hold their feet to the fire” is strangely appropriate: torture is almost always useless, and its use indicates more about the shortcomings of the torturer than the victim.
You appeal to nobody. Public pressure has an effect when it increases from normal levels. The low-level hum of discontent that you represent is constant, but also remarkably concentrated only around you and folk like Tanz or PR.
At best, you’ll just bore the political interest out of people. Which is the opposite of applying pressure.
Like frequently occurring zits, one has to address the cause for them to totally go away.
And again, it’s not just me. Hence, the issues raised do have public appeal (such as the state of our prisons). They wouldn’t be news worthy if they didn’t.
Personally, I may not appeal to anybody, it’s all rather subjective really. But I sure as hell get your (and a few others on here) attention.
At the end of the day, it’s not about me. It’s about the issues being raised. Attempting to make it all about me (and a couple of others) simply ignores the larger discontent that’s out there.
Don’t confuse “public interest” with “public appeal”.
Let’s contrast the Greens today with Labour under Shearer – now there was “larger discontent”, reflected in the polls for years and with a solid half dozen to dozen commenters railing against the inadequacies they perceived, multiple times a day. Each and every one of them was pissed.
The Greens today? Pretty much just you. On a daily basis. If there’s a genuine level of unrest within Green support, they sure seem to be doing well at hiding it.
I’m not. But you seem to be overlooking the two largely go hand in hand. Things people have no interest in, don’t tend to appeal to them.
It very well may be pretty much just me, on here. But not out there. And the Greens would be foolish to overlook that.
As I’ve highlighted before, the Greens have obtained the most political power they have ever had. They have ministerial positions and outlined their 20 goal plan with Labour. Yet, no surge in support.
Whereas, after Meteria’s announcement, their support surged to one of their highest ratings ever. So despite their current political wins, they are not resonating as they once did.
In fact, their support dropped in the latest poll. And there is no hiding that.
Was that the 18–28 Jan 2018 Newshub Reid Research poll? Had 6% from the previous 7% poll? Because that margin for error for a thousand-sample poll looks like 1.5% or so @ ~5%. Without rounding, either – you could be whinging about a 6.5% vs 6.4% “drop”.
If that’s the drop you’re talking about, it’s a good example of your concern trolling. They’ve had two post-election polls in the 10% range, one at 7, and the last at 6%, about the same as on election night.
As for Green support “surging” after Turei made her announcement, they went from their existing 13% to 15%, waivered, then fell.
By the way, I can’t see any comments from you in the Turei-tagged posts around that time. Were you not interested in it?
edit: nothing in this comment should be taken to indicate that even if I thought the Greens were in trouble I would think that they should follow your demands. They shouldn’t. Your advice is as bullshit as your interpretation of stats.
Yes, it was only a slight drop. Nevertheless, it is was a drop. Even if it was within the margin of error.
The point here is their support should have increased considering their political wins (which includes their 20 goal plan). But it didn’t. Not even within the margin of error. Hence, there is something for them to worry about.
It was a 4% surge for the Greens from 11% to 15% after Meteria’s announcement.
And I commented on the matter.
Yes, tell the Greens not to listen to me and lets watch them further fall.
Latest 1 news Colmar Brunton. Greens down 2%. Now polling at 5%.
A “drop” within the margin for error by definition might not be a drop at all.
Who says “their support should have increased”? Other than you? It’s not like the Greens have been monopolising media coverage.
As for the “surge” – you’re only looking at Colmar Brunton, aren’t you? You’re skipping the Roy Morgan that had the Greens on 13.5% before Turei’s announcement. Shit like that makes me think your motives aren’t as pure as you claim.
A as far as the poll is concerned, it was a registered drop (albeit within the margin of error).
And that in it self wouldn’t mean much. But as you are aware, I’m not looking at it within itself.
The feedback I’ve had suggested their support will fall and the latest Colmar Brunton further confirms this.
“Who says “their support should have increased”
Logic. As explained above.
Moreover, as they have largely outlined what they plan to achieve this term (their 20 goal plan) they are going to struggle to regrow their support without upping their game and doing more.
I look at all the polls. But yes, I was referring to the Colmar Brunton, which, offhand, produced their largest surge at that time.
My motives are simple. I want to see the Greens up their game, grow their support, while remaining a party of the left.
That’s not logic. It’s a blinkered warping of reality.
The Greens are a junior partner in the coalition. They’ve achieved agreement to implement a number of their policies, but the implementation hasn’t happened for a lot of them. Labour’s been in a 100days rush. National is fracturing.
And you think the Greens should be gaining ground in that PR environment, rather than drifting 2% in three polls.
Oh, yes, and you cherry pick the poll results to suit your narrative.
Thanks for your concern, but you’re either lying about your motives or you’re a political idiot. Either way your advice is worthless.
The logic is solid, therefore I disagree. They’ve obtained there largest political gains ever, therefore it’s logical to assume their support would reflect that.
The fact that it isn’t points to it failing to resonate. And this shouldn’t be taken lightly. Doing so will be at their own peril.
And while their goals are yet to be implemented, they’ve already been outlined. Therefore, when it comes to implementing them, it will merely be seen as a rehash of their initial intent and look as if they have nothing new to offer. Which will go on (20 goals) to further damage their support.
All the polls had an upsurge at the time (some more than others) therefore, they all suited my narrative.
Yes, keep telling everyone my advise is worthless and we’ll see how well they go repeating what they are currently doing.
peril?! nooooooooooo!!!!
Political exposure doesn’t happen in a vacuum.
“All the polls” continued the Greens’ previous increases in popularity until a couple of polls after Turei’s announcement. There wasn’t a sudden change in the trend until the mud started being slung.
Anyway, ok. You keep giving useless advice, and I’ll keep pointing out your cherry-picked stats and constant narrative of doom.
Up until Turei’s announcement, the Greens were struggling to get media cut through. So a vacuum indeed.
After the cracks in her story started to shine through, the media frenzy was really on. And while the media are culpable to some extent, what really hurt the Green’s support was Turei standing down, along with their management of the whole saga.
In a matter of weeks (or was that days) she went from standing up for the poor to abandoning them. Which, of course, let a lot of people down. Her back story was coming apart and she couldn’t get away quick enough.
“You keep giving useless advice, and I’ll keep pointing out your cherry-picked stats and constant narrative of doom.”
Yes, I will continue to highlight the issues, provide my advice and offer viable alternatives, as you carry on with your diminishing and smearing tactics while all along ignoring their loss of support.
And with such a welcoming reception, it’s no wonder why more don’t come here to express their concerns. For the less capable, people like you are rather threatening, hence a deterrent.
You say that, but pretty much the only person who expects them to decline is you.
In 2020, especially if they ignore your advice, the Greens will most likely be well above their 2017 election tally. Unless you think the last 20 years of mounting popularity will be negated by one muckraking episode a couple of months out from an election.
Get real. I wasn’t calling you dear, egg. It was a typo.
“You say that, but pretty much the only person who expects them to decline is you.”
That’s what the feedback suggests, and it’s been spot on thus far.
Remember, it predicted this current fall while you were in total denial. As you are now.
Moreover, the Turei saga was only one episode. To date, there has been more.
As explained throughout our discussions, the Greens are not bringing their A game. They’ve already outlined their goals, thus at this stage, have little more to offer.
And it is all of this combined, that the expectation is based upon.
As for your ruminations, it might predict falls, but when did you last predict a rise? Clocks running backwards are right more often than stopped clocks.
But I’ve said repeatedly that even without your cherry-picking (and ain’t you lucky the margin for error in the poll fell your way this time), the polls are irrelevant for the next 18 months anyway. I expect this to be the low area for the Greens, because they’re in it for the long term and have more solid support than your pessimism suggests.
Labour’s in pride of place now, and rightfully so. They grabbed victory when, frankly, I expected them to get bollocked in the election when Little resigned. ISTR your “lift their game” halitosis was aimed at them for some time last year – what were your polling predictions then?
As I said above, unless they take action. Hence, at this stage, they still have time to do that. So in 18 months, there may be a turnaround.
If it wasn’t for Jacinda and her cult of personality, Labour would have got hammered, as expected. And at the end they knew it, hence the last-minute change of leadership.
I was listening to Jacinda the other day. She was pointing to giving the Greens credit and acknowledgment (for policy they initiated such as the Green investment fund) as a means of growing their support. Implying once that was on the way they should see some turnaround.
However, that has already been announced in their 20 goal plan. Which has been widely touted.
Moreover, a plan outlined is not the same as implementing one. Which, of course, runs the risk of things going wrong. Hence, may backfire.
And going off the Greens management skills of late, they are really going to require to produce their A game if they want to avoid stuffing up.
Additionally, I expect Labour to further disappoint. Hence, the Greens should pick up some support off them.
You expect Labour “further disappoint” and “Greens should pick up some support off them”. Therefore if the Greens keep doing what they’re doing, we will see them grow rather than further fall.
Labour have already created some rather large disappointments to date, yet the Greens have gone down.
With the Jacinda effect still largely taking hold, this will take time to filter through. In the meantime, the Greens can’t afford to further fall. Hence, will require to up their game in the process.
Especially as they are widely known for polling higher than what they get on election day.
They really can’t fall much further. So unless you’re suggesting that the growth in support the Greens will gain from Labour being such a disappointment will actually be trivially small, really if the Greens do absolutely nothing the Greens will end up rising in the polls.
No advice needed at all, according to your expectations.
Why not? What’s your reasoning for this assertion?
“So unless you’re suggesting that the growth in support the Greens will gain from Labour being such a disappointment will actually be trivially small, really if the Greens do absolutely nothing the Greens will end up rising in the polls.”
No.
As I explained above, for the Greens to secure the disgruntled Labour vote (which will take some time to filter through) they need to up their game, thus current support so as to not be perceived as a wasted vote.
The maximum logical distance they can fall from the last poll is ~5%, because they can’t have negative popularity.
Therefore, if the Green growth in support from Labour being such a tragic disappointment is >5%, the Greens’ support must grow from its present point. So your advice is useless if the objective is to prevent a further fall in Green support.
If you’re expecting less than 5% growth in Green support from Labour being so horribly disappointing, well, that’s an amount of “growth” that’s close to the margin for error. So really you’re expecting growth in support that might be undetectable. Which seems to be a worthless prediction.
So it seems that at the very least either your advice is useless at preventing a further fall in support, or your predictions are unverifiable and therefore worthless. I suspect both, but each to their own. Your self-proclaimed mission is redundant.
“The maximum logical distance they can fall from the last poll is ~5%, because they can’t have negative popularity.”
Yes, but that doesn’t explain your assertion they can’t fall much further that what they are currently polling at.
“Therefore, if the Green growth in support from Labour being such a tragic disappointment is >5%, the Greens’ support must grow from its present point.”
You are overlooking the time it will take for the Jacinda effect to wear off. In which time (as I’ve explained extensively above) they risk further falling. At which point, by the time the Jacinda effect wears off, the Green’s support may be so low they will no longer be a viable option for that disgruntled Labour vote.
Which is why they need to up their game and grow their support now.
Whereas if a margin-for-error drop in Labour support goes over to the Greens, that’s 3.5% for almost no detectable drop in Labour popularity.
Are you predicting that the Greens will fall to <1.5% (still a fuckall drop in the greater scheme of things) if they don't follow your every direction?
Indeed. Which is why even at 5% they risk no longer being a viable option for the disgruntled Labour vote come election day.
Therefore, they don’t really have to fall any further to be considered a risk, deterring the Labour vote from crossing over.
So yes, at this stage I’m predicting they will further fall unless they up their game. But, again at this stage, I’m unable to put an exact number on how large or small that fall will be.
*Sincerely, with a tear of disappointment in the corner of his eye
“I was hoping the Greens would be better than that.”
*Sobs, quietly, so no one will notice
The Greens have lost their way. They once cared deeply for the homeless homers. Now…
… Shaw! He’s at the bottom of this! Shaw!!!
The coalition’s a farce – bring back Bill!!!
The leading law firm has been named winner of ‘Best Gender Diversity Initiative by National Firm’ at last night’s IFLR Euromoney Legal Media Group Asia Women in Business Law Awards, held in Hong Kong.
Russell McVeagh senior partner and board member Sarah Armstrong said the award highlights the firm’s success in implementing and supporting diversity and inclusion initiatives and progress of its long-term, firm-wide Diversity Project, launched in 2014.
Meanwhile on Newsroom
What we know so far is that five female clerks have made a series of claims, ranging from serious sexual assault to sexual harassment, while they were employed at top-tier law firm Russell McVeagh in Wellington.
Interesting how the two stories are so different.
Calling on NZ Government to stop giving work to any lawyers working under the banner of law firm Russell McVeagh
The firm acts for 11 of the NZX 15 companies, and New Zealand’s major corporates, including numerous energy and utilities companies, all of New Zealand’s retail banks, and New Zealand’s largest company and largest listed company.
These companies should stop giving work to any lawyers working under the banner of law firm Russell McVeagh
They won’t change unless it hurts them in the pocket.
I say go after the big fish first, they are clearly at fault. They want to say “everyone is doing it” do not play into their PR spin. THey are the ones doing it. Stop them first.
“What’s black and brown and looks good on a lawyer? A doberman.”
In reality, government decisions can be challenged in court. I have no axe to grind for RMcV or any other dog-food, and I wonder about the timing of this “hit”, and note that “Plan B” hasn’t commented since my question about their interests.
Labour looking at revamping abortion laws. Not just decriminalising, but things like where it can be performed (RU486) and the triple-consultation requirement and making referrals mandatory.
Cue the concern-o-bots worried that improving access to healthcare will get in the way of ‘real’ issues…
You have to wonder what sort of country we are becoming, certainly not clean and green. And why do we have laws that allow a resource consent to proceed when they don’t even have access in place for the mine and are relying on taking conservation land for that purpose. (but clearly breaking up the consent aka steal our harbour style).
Having to fight these bad consents and our pathetic RMA plunder at will rules, removes valuable community money and resources which could be better spent on actually helping our forests and birds not stopping their habitat being threatened on a weekly basis by bad resource consents!
Remember Pike River, fully consented death trap! NZ are turning into primitive yokels.
It’s battle and fight and justify and fight and petition and deny and battle and march and protest and promise and argue and weak legislation to paper over and it’s ignore and drink up and listen to the stockmarket reports and check bank balances and consult with tax accountants and order a new car and think about a small plane, and ignore laggards and whiners. What do they know?
Where are the Green Party on this? If they were more media present on this type of issue then it might help to reassure their missing 100,000, as well as preserve the environment.
Is Labour going to coast along thinking they can implant the Natz agenda, and Jacinda will distract the public from that like JK’s barbecues?
If more people had voted for them, they wouldn’t be spread so thin. But in this case I think that because the Minister of Conservation is a Green MP, the Greens have obligations including acting within the agreement with Labour. So Eugenie Sage needs to act within her roles as Minister i.e. she’s part of the government. If another Green MP spoke out on this, they risk speaking against their own MP and Minister. I think what is happening here is that the Greens now do their work though government, except where a portfolio sits outside of that role.
I assume the Greens (and Labour) don’t want to interfere with due process. If we’re talking about the proposed mine in the Buller, then the permission granted this week was by the High Court. The government can’t just override that. As Patricia points out, the government will need to strengthen laws around this. I’m guessing that this mine was already in the pipeline before the govt changed. I hope they stop it, but I don’t think it’s a simple as some people think.
The mining company still needs to get resources consent from the local councils. And then it needs consent to access the site over conservation land. I assume DOC will decide on that. Given DOC’s history of taking a neutral rather than protective stance in similar situations, I’ll be very interested to see if that changes under the new Minister. I’ve never really been clear where DOC’s directive was coming from on that in the past i.e. legislatively mandated, or from the Minister or what.
Immediately stop using all metal objects. Allow only wood or stone materials in your life.
Especially stop using the internet as it relies on electricity that is conducted everywhere by that demon metal copper. In fact anything electronic which uses all manner of metals
If everybody did this immediately the world would be such a better, less destructive place.
I see in the Herald online that Avon Cosmetics are shutting shop in Australasia after 55 years here. The company obviously think we are not paying our way down here. No warnings and now 220 staff and 21,400 representatives are without a job – that is a big chunk of the workforce now looking for work.
Apart from a huge upset for their customers obviously its just a day at the office for the restructuring team who has orchestrated this. How much profit is too much profit –
jobs are just severed without a bye your leave.
Can you please clarify who the ‘we’ is in that sentence?
Does it include the Avon employees? Or is it just you speaking in the (royal) third person?
Once the ‘we’ is defined then some other questions might open up – like the responsibilities of each member of the ‘we’ towards other members of the ‘we’.
I don’t want your condolences you f—–g piece of s–t, my friends and teachers were shot. Multiple of my fellow classmates are dead. Do something instead of sending prayers. Prayers won’t fix this. But Gun control will prevent it from happening again,
About my tweet directed to president trump, I apologize for the profanity and harsh comment I made. I hope you know I’m a grieving 16 year old girl who lost friends, teachers, and peers yesterday. I was and am still angry. I am apologizing for my comment but not for my anger.— sarah (@sarahchad_) February 15, 2018
My phone was down I couldn’t get thestandard.org.nz website I tx the Rock radio station about my problem and walar I can get thestandard.org.nz sandflys are at it again Ana to kai
The University of Canterbury academic’s home was broken into on Wednesday. Three laptops, including one on which she wrote the paper, two cellphones and an encrypted memory stick from her last trip to China were taken.
Brady also received a letter this week – since handed on to police, who were also investigating the break-in – warning her of “what was going on” and saying she would be attacked.
“China hasn’t had to pressure New Zealand to accept China’s soft power activities and political influence. The New Zealand government has actively courted it,”
Professor Anne-Marie Brady says “associates in China had been brought in for questioning by the country’s Ministry of State Security”. “Principles” are only tested when there’s risk involved. Like, for example, our nuclear free policy.
As a small country, we “owe service” (Lao Tzu). There’s a difference between service and vassal status. If Professor Brady’s concerns are valid, it’s time there was some overt push-back.
And here is Matt Nippert on it -we get to see the honorable investigative journalist himself in the vid at the link – recorded after the release of the research paper, and before our elections.
If Nippert says it’s scary stuff (as he did on twitter today), then we should be worried.
In her research, Brady sets out connections between former political figures and Chinese interests, including former National leader Dr Don Brash, former Prime Minister Dame Jenny Shipley and former Christchurch Mayor Bob Parker.
And Judith Collins, who has Chinese commercial influences of her own, is campaigning to be Nat leader.
Congratulations to South Africa New president Cyril Ramaphosa ECO MAORI know that you will be a humble humane president that gets the big picture he tangata he tangata give the people a bright happy future and all will be well
Hillary & Jeremy I tried a sugar supplement starting feeling a the side effects I Google them and what do you know one side effects is it causes cancer.
You no what they say about a plump man it’s true PS I will cut down on my sugar when I sue the police ka kite ano
I Google my high blood pressure pills an the side effects are huge on should Google all the medication you are given as the doctor doesn’t tell you the side effects at least you will know what to expect Ka kite ano
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Some excellent articles in the papers today.
The first is entitled ‘Why Silicon Valley billionaires are prepping for the apocalypse in New Zealand’
It part of the Guardian’s ‘Long read’ section and provides a lot of insight into Thiel, libertarians, their hatred of Winston Peters and tells about the company traitor Roger Douglas keeps.
One quote.
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2018/feb/15/why-silicon-valley-billionaires-are-prepping-for-the-apocalypse-in-new-zealand
Wealth does not mean smarter. Chump Trump inherited his. The rich are just as gormless as the rest of us, fads happen to them too. Nz will get badly hit by climate change, the only place I figure off the top of my head that will improve, become a bread basket for the world, is the Simpson desert.
The second has an arresting title.
‘Is this the end of capitalism? US Federal Reserve financial safety net is gone.’
and starts in an arresting fashion
It continues to explain why capitalism is in trouble and why the oncoming crash will not be mitigated until it comes to its scathing conclusion.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/101494449/is-this-the-end-of-capitalism-us-federal-reserve-financial-safety-net-is-gone
Third article of note.
Simon Wilson makes sensible suggestions to remedy Auckland’s transport woes.
His 5 point plan
1. Create as many new dedicated bus lanes on main routes as possible. Forget permanent markings: use road cones.
2. Add as many more buses and trains as possible, right through the day, well into the night and over the weekends. Target all those big events.
3. Exclude general traffic from selected inner-city streets. Convert them to bus parks and bus routes, and allow service vehicles too. (More buses is a short-term solution, for many reasons, including that there’s nowhere to put them when they get to town. Bring on the light rail and more trains.)
4. Improve the service: good visible security and how about food and other vendors on the platforms?
5. Launch a great new marketing campaign to get people to leave their cars at home if they can. Include schools.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11995364
I’d say start to solve the transport/housing/pollution/infrastructure/poverty crisis by stopping immigration and stepping down tourism.
Nope, thought not, the screams from businesses needing to be paid $20k for a job visa will be huge, the multinational hotels and casinos, not having their cheap exploitable labour!
No of course make the local poorer people pay!
Often comments about getting more people on public transport are from people who live in the inner city and central suburbs – how about some of these AT execs randomly go from 100 different locations in the supercity in particular the outlying ones and work out how long it will take on public transport, how to get from the house to the public transport etc and then from work to another place in the city. Then do a return journey and do it for a week. See the average time it takes.
Remember the Patrick Renolds types who probably commute less than 5 minutes per day telling everyone what they should do. Get some people who actually do commute from different locations and people who don’t, time it, should be a start!
I went on a bus about 12km and it regularly takes about 45minutes that’s in inner city type suburbs. It’s not traffic it’s just the routes they take and waiting times for buses!
Then go from west Auckland, south Auckland, north shore and east Auckland and see how long it takes. If you have hours up your sleeve in your life, to take the buses good for you! The trains are much better but only go on selected routes and by all accounts are well used and successful.
With all the construction in the centre I had to ask 3 drivers who did not know at all where the bus stop had moved to last time I tried to bus back.
Also suggest someone at transport starts to swab some of the new buses for hazardous materials because I went on a newish bus that smelt like it had been made from e waste plastic.
With their order of asbestos trains who know where they are getting them from. Have they checked the safety of the buses interiors?
Nice to see another Simon getting sensible and finally climbing out of a bubble.
Perhaps next time he might be honest enough to acknowledge a pleb or too now he’s reached the heights of the legit 4th Estate acceptance. Maybe (hopefully longevity and experience) has shown him its no substitute for a glass or two of Chard and A kathryn Ryan and David Russell.
I find it hard to take him seriously though I acknowledge he’s improving with age…though I’m probably a bit biased having experienced the Burma Rd polished concrete floors and the painful freakouts and truthiness on his taking a Jolly Green Giant
Finally, Brian Fallow looks at a disturbing trend.
Another reminder that this government cannot afford to tinker.
Unless radical action is taken to undo the damaging structures that underpin neoliberalism, our problems are not going away.
‘Retired & renting – the trend isn’t comforting.’
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11995035
Or they will sell up, buy a moto rhome or caravan and become NZ’s snow birds, similar to the American scene, complete with villages.
All ready for the next tornado I hope
All the financial advisers were advising how great it was to rent in your retirement a while back and ‘free up’ your money. Yep, take all financial advice with a pinch of salt. 90% of time they are just paid to sell financial products.
Bet they’re all planning to own their own home(s)
Good to see the CGT bright line test extended to five years.
Treasury warning that it might lead to fewer sales. On the other hand, some landlords have been threatening to sell all their properties if changes to tenancy laws are enacted.
Of course, now it’s the end of ‘Capitalism’ (“show me some!”), I expect all fiat currencies will collapse by say, next Thursday, so there won’t be a housing market at all /sarc.
It’s a tweak, but a good tweak.
Only 18 months ago we were in such a real estate froth that a full hard landing appeared inevitable.
Both governments have managed to deflate this slowly but surely.
It will take several years, but they have bought a little time for foolishly overstretched Kiwis to pay down private debt rather than perpetually reaching for more.
Debt is still cheap. Solution: raise interest rates. Consequences of raising interest rates: negative equity, foreclosures, etc. I like to be optimistic, and I know that short term optimism is usually stupid and wrong 🙂
Don Brash hiked interest rates back in the 1990’s and all it did was lengthen the Dole and food bank queues
Hence the remark about optimism.
‘Both governments have managed to deflate this slowly but surely.’Thank god it didn’t deflate too much before John Key cashed up in Parnell.Fantastic price,buyer had a chinese sounding surname,too.
Yes we noticed that self serving action. Total tosser.
@ Ad, Yep blame the “foolishly overstretched Kiwis to pay down private debt rather than perpetually reaching for more”.
The poor are poor because of bad decisions, those that are forced into private debt to afford a house are ‘foolish’, the government leads the way of course.
I guess the smart ones, are ones who buy in NZ for cash I expect.
I suspect it’s more the middle class overstretching on the mortgage, than the poor
Its not all bad. Number 3 seems like a positive note.
By this time next Thursday, we’ll all be millionaires. I plan to short the market just after I do the laundry.
Just don’t forget, to do the laundry I mean.
Buy buy buy !
Listening to Chump spouting his trite, hypocritical, predictable phrases about the latest school shooting in Florida strung together in his inimitable fashion just now on RNZ nearly made me throw up.
America is one family in our grief – tick
No school pupil or teacher should have to go through this – tick
We’re standing with you – tick
Anything you need – tick
Meaningful gun control to try to minimise the chances of this happening again as it has once a week on average for the past five years – didn’t hear that bit.
The USA is a sick society that seems incapable of keeping its citizens safe, A failed state.
America is a plutocracy.
America is a rogue state.
Reports vary as to whether it’s the eighth or eighteenth school shooting this year.
If you ask me, they need better access to mental health services, and a lower GINI.
The shootings are now so regular, it would actually be news to say there were no mass shootings today.
This guy says 11 in the last 23 days and offers some insight into what he sees as cruel individualism that he calls stoicism. The breakdown of social connection and caring.
https://eand.co/why-is-america-the-rich-worlds-most-ultraviolent-society-2d9f0fa084c6
Miss 13 was asking about it, she now knows about the NRA and gun lobbies etc.
She was shocked to discover that money is more important than life in ‘Murica.
Americans fear that gun control will means people will come into their homes and take their guns.
This is exactly what should happen.
this is the 8th, school shooting this year and the white houses responses to say “So many signs that the Florida shooter was mentally disturbed, even expelled from school for bad and erratic behavior. Neighbors and classmates knew he was a big problem. Must always report such instances to authorities, again and again!”
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/964110212885106689
thats right, snitch and blame the victims and the community, people always say “he was a loaner”or “I knew this would happen” its a coping mechanism to categorize grief and well documented as being meaningless, no-one know the hearts of humankind and trump’s suggestion would waste police resources on pointless persecution instead of tackling the real issues.
It’s always been the guns, it always will be the gun’s and by presidential order you need to get the law enforcement to stop chasing immigrants, go into peoples homes are take the guns away.. luckily even some americans are starting to see that.
additional http://washingtonpress.com/2018/02/15/white-supremacist-militia-just-admitted-trained-florida-school-shooter/
a white supremacist group has claim responsibility and “trained” the shooter, which trump ordered law enforcement to scale back on and it solely focus on Islamic groups.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-extremists-program-exclusiv/exclusive-trump-to-focus-counter-extremism-program-solely-on-islam-sources-idUSKBN15G5VO
and the FBI had a tip off from a you tube comment that was reported, but they could not ID the account holder. (even though his name was on the comment and school records are digitized/searchable, including past attendees.)
https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/964167990643216384/photo/1
it was the most recent school shooter, so much for report to authorities.
Where’s Antione? We need an American apologist to come along about now
Me?? I never comment on American stuff
“It’s always been the guns, it always will be the gun’s and by presidential order you need to get the law enforcement to stop chasing immigrants, go into peoples homes are take the guns away.. luckily even some americans are starting to see that.”
I politely disagree. It’s about the lack of licensing. We have licences here, and it by and large gets it right in terms of who does or doesn’t get a licence.
What both centrist liberals and the progressive left in the USA need to do is work together to assemble the legal argument that gun licensing is not unconstitutional, and that the second amendment right to bear arms can be reasonably qualified by using licencing to better ensure the collective right to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.
The American right will often argue that firearms owned under the second amendment do guarantee the rights derived from the first amendment – but misused, they can also threaten those rights.
So what interests me here is seeing how this issue could reawaken the American left and liberal political and legal thought around the constitution, which hasn’t really galvanized them all that much over the last few decades. But Trump has actually reawakened constitutionalism on the left. The so far successful resistance to the travel ban was proof that States Rights is not a frivolously conservative cause. Now it’s time for the American left to see what else they can accomplish when they respect their actually very robust constitution.
I offer a rebuttal, I agree licensing should be an option, but that doesn’t address the amount of guns in the hands of people who should not have them, this only addresses future sales (and gun ownership laws/licensing is done on a state by state basis, what your talking about would need to be federal)
There are two problems,
1) Lax gun ownership laws/licensing
2) the sheer amount of firearms in the US (a study in new york found that there are 102 legally owned guns per 100 people)
its too easy for the mentally disturbed or those with past criminal history to get guns, licensing increases would only fuel a blackmarket. You need to actually removed and destroy existing stocks of firearms.
Oh yes, I agree with these two things:
A) That licensing is necessary because there are certain people who must never be allowed to own firearms of any kind on mental health grounds, or on grounds of having a criminal record.
B) Yes, there will be some shortcomings, and this one is the most significant, you’d have to either live with that, or address it with issues ranging from a buyback, to more coercive options which may in themselves cause trouble. I’m honestly open to good ideas for how you do that. But in the meantime, licensing at sets you up for a better future than a numbing repeat of the past – or present.
You’re correct it would need to be a federal law, states don’t just have their own gun ownership laws, they have their own constitutions. It wouldn’t be practical to take it on that way. You’d be looking for a federal move and it would end up being fought all the way to the supreme court, which is why you’d want some good legal minds combing over the Federalist Papers and the like to have a good argument which shows that licensing would be in keeping with the general framing of the constitution.
Only thing I feel like I disagree with in your rebuttal – though it’s not to a point I think either of us need to dig in over – is that I don’t know that the quantity of weapons in existence bothers me all that much. You can only carry so many at once, and you can only use one at a time (ok yes you can run around with a pair of pistols, but I guarantee that’s not working out for you like it does in a Hollywood film).
When it comes to a psycho doing their thing, I’d be more concerned about the guy who has drilled himself repeatedly with hours of range time on one favourite rifle and is packing a practical selection of spare mags which he’s used and checked repeatedly, rather than the standard mass shooter situation where guy goes off with gym bag full of guns he’s never used and mags he’s never tested, gets a jam two mags into his shooting spree, then blows his own brains out in a panic, leaving two unfired long arms, four unfired pistols, and a couple thousand rounds of unused ammo lying on the ground in the bag. Kind of a quality is more dangerous than quantity thing.
Still, I can see where you’re coming from in terms of the less there is in existence, the less there is to make its way into the wrong hands. That side of things does make sense and if that’s the sense in which you’re arguing for it, then I think the best option is a buyback than confiscation given the political culture you’d be dealing with. Expensive but necessary.
unfortuntly gun-buyback don’t really work (inconclusive), Evidence: https://theconversation.com/factcheck-qanda-did-government-gun-buybacks-reduce-the-number-of-gun-deaths-in-australia-85836
But as on that same article, gun restrictions did work so they can be used in combination, unfortunately US’s issue is far more problematic they have a lot more guns than australia and alot more people with the mentality that “guns are our rights” and “Need them to protect” Neither of which are true in a strict sense.
If the US did a buy back I would hypothesize that the NRA would launch a massive marketing campaign that would mean very little guns would be “bought back”
I honestly think the only option as this point would be acquisitions, then you can implement licensing laws etc.
I agree that buybacks have mixed results – but I do wonder in the Australian case how many of the firearms used there to commit crimes may in fact have been smuggled in by organized crime networks since the post-Port Arthur laws and buybacks, and may have never been legally owned in the first place. But that’s just conjecture on my part, I have little to go on based on that report.
Still, it would seem to me that the combination of going as far as you can with buy backs and reforming future ownership through licensing is as good as it gets.
“I honestly think the only option as this point would be acquisitions, then you can implement licensing laws etc.”
One thing: when you say ‘acquisitions’, you do mean ‘confiscations’, right? You mean a mass program of law enforcement agencies entering people’s homes to confiscate their weapons, right? Or something else?
Unfortunate yes, you could start with a buyback programs, but it will most likely comes to forcible removal.
I have a fair idea how that will play out… war.
Sorry for the late reply, but yes, I think if you went beyond a buyback and tried for mass confiscations, you’d get violence on an epic scale, and worse still probably resistance from law enforcement themselves.
Your right, but it’s unfortunately one of the only options left.
I was reading an article this morning about the recent school shooting and an interview with the parent, one thing that struck me as odd, “after a recent burglary They bought guns”
this epitomizes the issue, instead of adding new lock or security measures they decided firearms were the correct response, not for hunting but home defense. Stats show that firearms used in home defense are more likely to be used on the owners than the offender, as much as everyone thinks they are rambo, guns are pretty stupid weapons to use for home defense, deception, deterrents and outside intervention (police, security patrols) is far better and more effective.
But in the US, they feel they NEED guns as a form of protection from “burglars” instead of what other western nations do which is add deterrents, guns have become so much of a part of the culture that not having them is seen as weird.
But it’s quite obviously from an outsider’s perspective the cause of alot of the issues, it’s not a root cause(mental health support, the recent school shooter could not get psychological help because of the cost) but it is something that could be controlled easily with simple legislation.
So how would gun control laws have prevented this from happening? Gun control laws don’t stop bad people from obtaining guns.
yes they do, simple controls and checks as well as licensing means mass shooting happen much more infrequently.
A fun fact, Last year in the US there were more gun deaths in the US than in the entire world combined (this includes war zones)
SO what’s the difference between the rest of the world and the US, Gun control, even making getting a firearm as hard as applying for a drivers license reduces gun violence and mass shootings quite a lot, when australia introduced gun control in just two decades following the reforms, the annual rate of gun deaths fell from 2.9 per 100,000 in 1996 to 0.9 per 100,000 in 2016, there reforms were prompted after the 1996 Port arthur massacre. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Port_Arthur_massacre_(Australia)
Aust has not had a single mass shooting since, gun deaths are down and there is no corresponding uptick in attacks by other types of weapons (mass bombings etc) So guns are the issue.
details of the reforms, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Firearms_Agreement
As a former firearms licensed holder here in Oz, gun ownership is up and firearm thief is on rise especially in the small arms aka pistols or illegal importation of them. It the illegal use small arms in the hands of the criminals that causing most if not of the firearm related deaths here in Oz.
My license was suspended when I had run down the rabbit with my PTSD, and no access to them anyway as they locked up and the lads had change the codes to the vaultand the safe for the Magazine keys.
Sent from iPad
Only in Australia…
It couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch of guys 🙄
Genter and Nash need to have a chat on driving and recreational drug use. Genter was weak in the House yesterday. NZTA are rolling out a campaign on drug-impaired crashes. Police support it.
Needs political alignment, fast, before the debate infects the legalisation legislation.
Genter was weak in the House yesterday
I’m not going to take your word for that. Link please.
Weak in what way? If it was “weak” in the sense of wanting to find out the nature and extent of the problem before jumping on a NZTA/Police anti-drugs bandwagon, then great – let’s have a lot more of that kind of “weakness” from our ministers.
She wasn’t weak. Ad is just revealing his bias again.
Genter “weak” ? Nonsense. She was thoroughly in control of the moment in my observation.
I think they will be approaching you to appear in a new TV commercial.
“North should have gone to Specsavers”
that was really interesting. Gender looks like she’s covering all the bases well, so I’m also not sure what Ad is on about. Not sure why he is criticising Gender instead of Nash, but it thought she handled that question well.
Anyone know what the impairment test is that the police already use?
Um, *Genter…
Paging Dr. Freud 🙂
Lol, paging a smarter auto correct.
See edit for impairment test 🙂
Crickey, I know people that can’t stand on one leg even when not impaired.
But yeah, makes sense, and I trust Genter to being using evidence.
Basic balance trick: think about the foot you’re standing on 🙂
Nice.
Hopefully your own
Lol, very funny A.
Ad, why did you feel Genter was “weak” ?- I watched and agree with those here who thought her responses appropriate. She’s sharp.
Edit: I see alwyn’s snarky comment and get that he’s curmudgeonly, but you Ad? Why the negativity? What did you see?
Nash being a moron is not Genter’s fault.
From reading scoop last night she was all over it like pickle heat after 12hrs of wearing body armour. What got me was the fact she using evidence base lead facts to support her case unlike the other muppet shooting his mouth off. Is that typical of Mr Nash BTW?
Sent from IPad
Morning Breakfast people We should make our own choices in what policy we legerslate into law and not let USA dictate what we do. I charge my opinion of people as I learn more think more about them Obama does not make my top ten humane people I admire. He knows exactly what shonky key was doing to Maori and Atoearoa he still let shonky gain influence from his associationing with Obama. The American president gets privy to most information he knows exactly what shonky was doing. Ana to kai.
Ka kite ano
You give the US way to much credit, Who cares about NZ, in the scope of the world we are nothing, we barely rate as a world power, we have little population, almost no economic capital, no military to speak of. We may think were “hot stuff” but were not.
Obama administration instergated the bad changes to OUR justice system Ana to kai
New Zealand initiated the TPPA in the first place. In 2005.
Labour initiated the TPPA in the first place. In 2005.
But without the United States, and thus it was at that time free of many of the objectionable provisions.
I still cannot login to TS from my macbook on Firefox. I get a bad request notice. then when I just try to access TS mainpage, I get the same notice – something about cannot find server.
It also seems to infect any attempt to login from Safari on my macbook for 15 minutes or so.
how long has that been happening?
Please cut and paste the two error messages into a comment.
Can you please try doing a test comment using this protocol and let me know what happens?
– Make sure you are logged out
– Delete browser cookies
– Restart browser
– Make a comment with same user name but a different email address (make one up, or put 2 after your email name before the @, so you can tell them apart. TS doesn’t require valid email addresses)
– First comment will go into spam, because you are considered a new user
– Subsequent comments should go through ok
Will do….. back to the mac…
just logged in successfully on safari on the mac
Edit: but having difficulty accessing TS on Firefox: still this message:
Bad Request
It’s been going on like this for a few weeks.
I will have a look at it later today or tomorrow. First with Firefox on linux. Otherwise I will try to convince Lyn to let me use her MacBook.
The login is working fine for me with Firefox on Ubuntu at the moment.
That sounds very optimistic if she is anything like my wife.
My using her tablet would be almost the equivalent of me going through her handbag.
You will notice I said “almost the equivalent” not “like me”.
I would never dare touch either object.
Lyn may be a much more obliging lady.
Lynn TS just came up again on dogpile/microsoft/google chrome sites so looks good now thanks.
There’s been shit happening all day @ caroyn. Timeouts. Site un reachable. Bearing in mind tho I’m 8.5 hours behind…. but @ lprent. i wouldn’t get my knickers in a twist over a temporary network glitch that would force an obsessive/compulsive into redesigning a whole system.
There’s a huge solar storm beating down on Earth and that may cause a few problems with network connectivity, etc.
deleting the browser history and cookies, then restarting the browser worked. Can log in from firefox now.
Thanks.
it’s a known firefox issue on JS heavy sites.
The browser app is left running in a tab for a long time (overnight) and continues to make background requests via JS.
At some point, the session times out and it starts receiving redirects to refresh its session. Each of these requests is setting a new state cookie.
The Javascript code doesn’t handle this case, so it just keeps blindly sending requests and accumulating state cookies until it exceeds the max request cookie size limit and starts getting 401 errors
Clearing cookies in the browser is a working stopgap.
— For the MODS to pass onto a DEV — there are workaround/fixes that can be added to mitigate the 401 errors see: https://github.com/zmartzone/mod_auth_openidc/wiki/Cookies
thanks.
leonhart..
That’s useful.
By the way did anyone else find TS was not accessible all afternoon? I haven’t noticed comment from anyone else about it yet?
Yeah I did, I thought it’s the wet season/ local storms playing havoc again with the Internet today, but I was to log on to my usual other Kiwi haunts after I did the house work today
it helps when you do it for a living 🙂 the companies I work for runs 26 Ecom sites, some have wordpress integrations, it was fun looking of the page source for this state seeing how the .js was implemented.
@ greywarshark (11.2.1.2) … same here, I was unable to access TS all afternoon. Was only able to reach it this evening. Something about a problem with the local network. Other sites were fine.
Thought the Blue gremlins had sabotaged TS for a while there!
Me too. And ex Kiwi you are in Oz aren’t you?
I kept thinking of things I wanted to comment on and was discombobulated to be cut off in my prime so to speak.
Glad that’s sorted (I take it you didn’t use the protocol above?)
weka OIDCUnAuthAction 401 needs to added to the .js path at the .html level, its not something the user needs to do, this is a site dev fixes for the known firefox bug.
I wanted to see what happened when Carolyn commented without logging in (there is a bug that affects people with logins when they try and comment without logging in).
She was having problems with two browsers.
Thanks, LH.
The safari was OK until I got locked out via firefox, but came good after a short wait.
I will have a look at what WordPress does. But I suspect that it doesn’t use mod-auth at all.
In fact I suspect that I haven’t even bothered to manually turn it on any auth in apache simply because that is handled internal to WordPress.
Of course it could have come in as part of mod_ssl or something else.
This isn’t exactly a corporate site.
the session cookie could have been altered see OIDCCookie primitive its default is mod_auth_openidc_session but wordpress may use a different ID.
no.
Lissa Lucas the women who was dragged off the podium and not allowed to speak no more at a hearing on minerals, speaks to Jimmy Dore. 19.10 minute video. Centerists should avoid, as this involves a discussion on removing money from politics, and it might just hurt their feelings.
I saw her speech the other day, a strong, important woman.
Funny. I wonder if this person was bribing people with free Air New Zealand air points 🙂
https://www.radionz.co.nz/news/political/350310/38-people-allegedly-voted-twice-in-election
Why would you need to bribe people on the Northshore to vote National ?
Everyone who votes National has been bribed.
With which bribe Robert ?
Look around and name one of the many. An alert person like you would be able to spot one or two easily.
Tax cuts. Inflated property prices & rents further fuelled by hyper-immigration. Wage suppression through hyper-immigration. Don’t ask to me to go on, please!
Robert; said “Everyone who votes National has been bribed.”
Brainwashed more like.
Bribed, or made to feel fearful. If one doesn’t get them, the other will.
Corrections has published the inspection reports for both Manawatū and Auckland prisons.
Yet, there seems to be nothing from the Green’s correction spokesperson on these reports.
Wakey-wakey.
Nothing from the Minister either, nor any of the other parties. You must be so concerned.
Shows how much they all care. Hence, we should all be concerned.
I was hoping the Greens would be better than that.
Or, too busy building fences at the top of the cliff, but wait, what’s that whining noise?
“Too busy building fences at the top of the cliff…”
What happen to walking and chewing gum?
And what fences would that be exactly?
The government’s legislative program can be found on Parliament’s website. You’re the one whining, so it’s up to you to say where you think it’s deficient.
Or you can continue to be a lazy and passive-aggressive concern troll.
You’re the one pointing to them being too busy building fences, hence it’s not up to me to back up your assertion.
What’s deficient is no press release presented after the release of two reports.
If I was Shaw (the party leader) I’d be on the phone wanting to know why there is nothing from their corrections spokesperson.
If you were Shaw, he’d never have made it into caucus, let alone the leadership.
But he is party leader, so what is his excuse?
He doesn’t need an excuse for your witless concern trolling.
“He doesn’t need an excuse…”
So he’s been on the phone then? Press release due out soon is it?
No, you misunderstand: I’m expressing contempt for your behaviour and opinion.
Nope.
No press release to match your requirements.
No phone calls to tell caucus members how to suck eggs.
Probably not so much as a peep.
And no “excuse” needed at all.
Why, I hear you concern troll?
Because the Greens have been doing this longer and more successfully than you have. Not only do they not need your advice or to meet your demands, following it would result in a constant, bland whining about the smallest procedural, regulatory, and supervisory events that most bureaucrats wouldn’t want to envisage, and it would therefore give the greens the electorate appeal of a small off-yellow puddle of cat puke.
Which would still be more popular than you.
What the hell for?
😆
@ McFlock
And do you now speak for the Greens?
No, I merely speak as another person who finds your behaviour and opinions contemptible.
Why do you find the expectation that the Greens express their view on two recently released correction reports contemptible?
Well, mostly because it’s an expectation that the Greens should serve your priorities and expectations, and if they do not satisfy your expectations 100% then they are being inadequate in some way. Check that privilege.
But I also suspect that if the Greens had released a statement abouteach corrections report released that day, you would have found some other government publication or media event that the Greens had failed to give attention to, and you’d have written another of your boilerplate demands about that.
So in order to prevent these formulaic criticisms from you (and only you), the Greens would be releasing 2k press releases a day about the most minute crap imaginable, and their actual priorities would be lost in the flood.
“Well, mostly because it’s an expectation that the Greens should serve your priorities and expectations…”
Seriously? Your logic is messed up. I’m far from the only person concerned about the state of our prisons. Moreover, I’m sure the Greens don’t condone the failings highlighted in the reports. So to suggest it’s only my expectation they publicly address these findings is totally ludicrous.
Evidently, it’s your attempt to diminish this failure by the Greens by painting it as solely my expectation.
And no, I don’t expect them to release a press release over the most minute crap imaginable.
Yawn.
Damned near every day you have something that you believe the Greens need to “up their game” on. If not them then Labour.
The issue isn’t that you care about prisons. The issue isn’t even that you think the Greens should have paid it more attention. The issue is that you ignore what they do say in order to criticise that they haven’t addressed your issue of the day.
If I were a cynic, I’d say that it’s interesting how you’re always finding the thing that day that the Greens didn’t comment on loudly enough for your satisfaction. It’s almost like you look at their daily activities and then look through the news for something they haven’t mentioned.
The fact there are a number of issues frequently requiring our attention is largely a reflection of their failings and the overall mess our country is in.
Nor is it merely my belief there are certain issues requiring them to up their game.
When it comes to them getting it right, clearly they don’t require help, hence I largely don’t bother commenting. There are plenty of cheerleaders for that. Unfortunately there is not as many when it comes to holding their feet to the fire. Which, as voters we should feel obliged to do.
I genuinely care about the issues raised, which is why I raise them. Moreover, they are not just my issue of the day.
Take these two reports, I didn’t make them a media story. And if you follow the news and Green Party press releases, you’ll see there is a lot of news they don’t comment on. Hence, a lot I don’t pull them up on.
And yet you still turn up regularly with your quota of complaints.
Your choice of the expression “hold their feet to the fire” is strangely appropriate: torture is almost always useless, and its use indicates more about the shortcomings of the torturer than the victim.
You really do try and appeal to the ignorant.
I didn’t mean it literally. It’s an idiom, meaning to apply public pressure. But you already knew that.
And yes, as explained above, I will be frequently turning up.
Like a zit.
You appeal to nobody. Public pressure has an effect when it increases from normal levels. The low-level hum of discontent that you represent is constant, but also remarkably concentrated only around you and folk like Tanz or PR.
At best, you’ll just bore the political interest out of people. Which is the opposite of applying pressure.
Like frequently occurring zits, one has to address the cause for them to totally go away.
And again, it’s not just me. Hence, the issues raised do have public appeal (such as the state of our prisons). They wouldn’t be news worthy if they didn’t.
Personally, I may not appeal to anybody, it’s all rather subjective really. But I sure as hell get your (and a few others on here) attention.
At the end of the day, it’s not about me. It’s about the issues being raised. Attempting to make it all about me (and a couple of others) simply ignores the larger discontent that’s out there.
Don’t confuse “public interest” with “public appeal”.
Let’s contrast the Greens today with Labour under Shearer – now there was “larger discontent”, reflected in the polls for years and with a solid half dozen to dozen commenters railing against the inadequacies they perceived, multiple times a day. Each and every one of them was pissed.
The Greens today? Pretty much just you. On a daily basis. If there’s a genuine level of unrest within Green support, they sure seem to be doing well at hiding it.
I’m not. But you seem to be overlooking the two largely go hand in hand. Things people have no interest in, don’t tend to appeal to them.
It very well may be pretty much just me, on here. But not out there. And the Greens would be foolish to overlook that.
As I’ve highlighted before, the Greens have obtained the most political power they have ever had. They have ministerial positions and outlined their 20 goal plan with Labour. Yet, no surge in support.
Whereas, after Meteria’s announcement, their support surged to one of their highest ratings ever. So despite their current political wins, they are not resonating as they once did.
In fact, their support dropped in the latest poll. And there is no hiding that.
Thanks for your concern.
Was that the 18–28 Jan 2018 Newshub Reid Research poll? Had 6% from the previous 7% poll? Because that margin for error for a thousand-sample poll looks like 1.5% or so @ ~5%. Without rounding, either – you could be whinging about a 6.5% vs 6.4% “drop”.
If that’s the drop you’re talking about, it’s a good example of your concern trolling. They’ve had two post-election polls in the 10% range, one at 7, and the last at 6%, about the same as on election night.
As for Green support “surging” after Turei made her announcement, they went from their existing 13% to 15%, waivered, then fell.
By the way, I can’t see any comments from you in the Turei-tagged posts around that time. Were you not interested in it?
edit: nothing in this comment should be taken to indicate that even if I thought the Greens were in trouble I would think that they should follow your demands. They shouldn’t. Your advice is as bullshit as your interpretation of stats.
Yes, it was only a slight drop. Nevertheless, it is was a drop. Even if it was within the margin of error.
The point here is their support should have increased considering their political wins (which includes their 20 goal plan). But it didn’t. Not even within the margin of error. Hence, there is something for them to worry about.
It was a 4% surge for the Greens from 11% to 15% after Meteria’s announcement.
And I commented on the matter.
Yes, tell the Greens not to listen to me and lets watch them further fall.
Latest 1 news Colmar Brunton. Greens down 2%. Now polling at 5%.
https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/labour-soars-highest-level-in-15-years-new-1-news-colmar-brunton-poll?auto=5736314087001
A “drop” within the margin for error by definition might not be a drop at all.
Who says “their support should have increased”? Other than you? It’s not like the Greens have been monopolising media coverage.
As for the “surge” – you’re only looking at Colmar Brunton, aren’t you? You’re skipping the Roy Morgan that had the Greens on 13.5% before Turei’s announcement. Shit like that makes me think your motives aren’t as pure as you claim.
A as far as the poll is concerned, it was a registered drop (albeit within the margin of error).
And that in it self wouldn’t mean much. But as you are aware, I’m not looking at it within itself.
The feedback I’ve had suggested their support will fall and the latest Colmar Brunton further confirms this.
“Who says “their support should have increased”
Logic. As explained above.
Moreover, as they have largely outlined what they plan to achieve this term (their 20 goal plan) they are going to struggle to regrow their support without upping their game and doing more.
I look at all the polls. But yes, I was referring to the Colmar Brunton, which, offhand, produced their largest surge at that time.
My motives are simple. I want to see the Greens up their game, grow their support, while remaining a party of the left.
That’s not logic. It’s a blinkered warping of reality.
The Greens are a junior partner in the coalition. They’ve achieved agreement to implement a number of their policies, but the implementation hasn’t happened for a lot of them. Labour’s been in a 100days rush. National is fracturing.
And you think the Greens should be gaining ground in that PR environment, rather than drifting 2% in three polls.
Oh, yes, and you cherry pick the poll results to suit your narrative.
Thanks for your concern, but you’re either lying about your motives or you’re a political idiot. Either way your advice is worthless.
The logic is solid, therefore I disagree. They’ve obtained there largest political gains ever, therefore it’s logical to assume their support would reflect that.
The fact that it isn’t points to it failing to resonate. And this shouldn’t be taken lightly. Doing so will be at their own peril.
And while their goals are yet to be implemented, they’ve already been outlined. Therefore, when it comes to implementing them, it will merely be seen as a rehash of their initial intent and look as if they have nothing new to offer. Which will go on (20 goals) to further damage their support.
All the polls had an upsurge at the time (some more than others) therefore, they all suited my narrative.
Yes, keep telling everyone my advise is worthless and we’ll see how well they go repeating what they are currently doing.
peril?! nooooooooooo!!!!
Political exposure doesn’t happen in a vacuum.
“All the polls” continued the Greens’ previous increases in popularity until a couple of polls after Turei’s announcement. There wasn’t a sudden change in the trend until the mud started being slung.
Anyway, ok. You keep giving useless advice, and I’ll keep pointing out your cherry-picked stats and constant narrative of doom.
Up until Turei’s announcement, the Greens were struggling to get media cut through. So a vacuum indeed.
After the cracks in her story started to shine through, the media frenzy was really on. And while the media are culpable to some extent, what really hurt the Green’s support was Turei standing down, along with their management of the whole saga.
In a matter of weeks (or was that days) she went from standing up for the poor to abandoning them. Which, of course, let a lot of people down. Her back story was coming apart and she couldn’t get away quick enough.
“You keep giving useless advice, and I’ll keep pointing out your cherry-picked stats and constant narrative of doom.”
Yes, I will continue to highlight the issues, provide my advice and offer viable alternatives, as you carry on with your diminishing and smearing tactics while all along ignoring their loss of support.
And with such a welcoming reception, it’s no wonder why more don’t come here to express their concerns. For the less capable, people like you are rather threatening, hence a deterrent.
The most recent poll before her announcement, they were on 13%.
They increased to 15%.
Then ended up on 6.3%.
Your advice is useless, your alternatives aren’t viable in the real world, and frankly you’re a better tory propagandist than Farrar.
I see you are now opting to tar me with the righty smear, ha.
“ They increased to 15%.
Then ended up on 6.3%.”
And now they are in free-fall, currently at 5%. And dear I say (unless they take action) expected to further decline.
You say that, but pretty much the only person who expects them to decline is you.
In 2020, especially if they ignore your advice, the Greens will most likely be well above their 2017 election tally. Unless you think the last 20 years of mounting popularity will be negated by one muckraking episode a couple of months out from an election.
And don’t call me “dear”.
Get real. I wasn’t calling you dear, egg. It was a typo.
“You say that, but pretty much the only person who expects them to decline is you.”
That’s what the feedback suggests, and it’s been spot on thus far.
Remember, it predicted this current fall while you were in total denial. As you are now.
Moreover, the Turei saga was only one episode. To date, there has been more.
As explained throughout our discussions, the Greens are not bringing their A game. They’ve already outlined their goals, thus at this stage, have little more to offer.
And it is all of this combined, that the expectation is based upon.
No typo. Someone just hasn’t seen “Airplane!”.
As for your ruminations, it might predict falls, but when did you last predict a rise? Clocks running backwards are right more often than stopped clocks.
But I’ve said repeatedly that even without your cherry-picking (and ain’t you lucky the margin for error in the poll fell your way this time), the polls are irrelevant for the next 18 months anyway. I expect this to be the low area for the Greens, because they’re in it for the long term and have more solid support than your pessimism suggests.
Labour’s in pride of place now, and rightfully so. They grabbed victory when, frankly, I expected them to get bollocked in the election when Little resigned. ISTR your “lift their game” halitosis was aimed at them for some time last year – what were your polling predictions then?
As I said above, unless they take action. Hence, at this stage, they still have time to do that. So in 18 months, there may be a turnaround.
If it wasn’t for Jacinda and her cult of personality, Labour would have got hammered, as expected. And at the end they knew it, hence the last-minute change of leadership.
I was listening to Jacinda the other day. She was pointing to giving the Greens credit and acknowledgment (for policy they initiated such as the Green investment fund) as a means of growing their support. Implying once that was on the way they should see some turnaround.
However, that has already been announced in their 20 goal plan. Which has been widely touted.
Moreover, a plan outlined is not the same as implementing one. Which, of course, runs the risk of things going wrong. Hence, may backfire.
And going off the Greens management skills of late, they are really going to require to produce their A game if they want to avoid stuffing up.
Additionally, I expect Labour to further disappoint. Hence, the Greens should pick up some support off them.
yawn.
whatever, doofus.
Looks like now you expect things to improve for the greens without them taking your advice.
As usual, you’re overlooking a major factor.
For this to happen, it requires the Greens to maintain and grow their current support. And that will require them to up their game.
Anything less makes voting for them a risk, thus being seen as a wasted vote.
You expect Labour “further disappoint” and “Greens should pick up some support off them”. Therefore if the Greens keep doing what they’re doing, we will see them grow rather than further fall.
Labour have already created some rather large disappointments to date, yet the Greens have gone down.
With the Jacinda effect still largely taking hold, this will take time to filter through. In the meantime, the Greens can’t afford to further fall. Hence, will require to up their game in the process.
Especially as they are widely known for polling higher than what they get on election day.
They really can’t fall much further. So unless you’re suggesting that the growth in support the Greens will gain from Labour being such a disappointment will actually be trivially small, really if the Greens do absolutely nothing the Greens will end up rising in the polls.
No advice needed at all, according to your expectations.
“They really can’t fall much further”
Why not? What’s your reasoning for this assertion?
“So unless you’re suggesting that the growth in support the Greens will gain from Labour being such a disappointment will actually be trivially small, really if the Greens do absolutely nothing the Greens will end up rising in the polls.”
No.
As I explained above, for the Greens to secure the disgruntled Labour vote (which will take some time to filter through) they need to up their game, thus current support so as to not be perceived as a wasted vote.
My reasoning is math.
The maximum logical distance they can fall from the last poll is ~5%, because they can’t have negative popularity.
Therefore, if the Green growth in support from Labour being such a tragic disappointment is >5%, the Greens’ support must grow from its present point. So your advice is useless if the objective is to prevent a further fall in Green support.
If you’re expecting less than 5% growth in Green support from Labour being so horribly disappointing, well, that’s an amount of “growth” that’s close to the margin for error. So really you’re expecting growth in support that might be undetectable. Which seems to be a worthless prediction.
So it seems that at the very least either your advice is useless at preventing a further fall in support, or your predictions are unverifiable and therefore worthless. I suspect both, but each to their own. Your self-proclaimed mission is redundant.
“The maximum logical distance they can fall from the last poll is ~5%, because they can’t have negative popularity.”
Yes, but that doesn’t explain your assertion they can’t fall much further that what they are currently polling at.
“Therefore, if the Green growth in support from Labour being such a tragic disappointment is >5%, the Greens’ support must grow from its present point.”
You are overlooking the time it will take for the Jacinda effect to wear off. In which time (as I’ve explained extensively above) they risk further falling. At which point, by the time the Jacinda effect wears off, the Green’s support may be so low they will no longer be a viable option for that disgruntled Labour vote.
Which is why they need to up their game and grow their support now.
5% isn’t much.
That’s all they can fall.
Whereas if a margin-for-error drop in Labour support goes over to the Greens, that’s 3.5% for almost no detectable drop in Labour popularity.
Are you predicting that the Greens will fall to <1.5% (still a fuckall drop in the greater scheme of things) if they don't follow your every direction?
“5% isn’t much.”
Indeed. Which is why even at 5% they risk no longer being a viable option for the disgruntled Labour vote come election day.
Therefore, they don’t really have to fall any further to be considered a risk, deterring the Labour vote from crossing over.
So yes, at this stage I’m predicting they will further fall unless they up their game. But, again at this stage, I’m unable to put an exact number on how large or small that fall will be.
lol
so now the Greens won’t get an increase in support when “disappointment in Labour” leads to a drop in Labour’s support.
Make up your mind.
As I said above, should. Which, of course, depends on all the factors extensively explained to you above.
So what percentage do the Greens need to be at in order to gain votes off Labour, in your expectation?
*Sincerely, with a tear of disappointment in the corner of his eye
“I was hoping the Greens would be better than that.”
*Sobs, quietly, so no one will notice
All that signals to me Robet is you don’t care. Hence, aren’t willing to get in behind and hold the Greens to a higher standard.
lolz
For your next trick you’ll lecture the Pope about Catholic theology.
Mcflock
LOL
You are on form today. OAB too.
A Lighter Shade Of Green – The Chairman’s quintessential song.
“You just don’t care !!
*Sobs, this time, uncontrollably
And then there is the need for a home for homeless homing pigeons. Have the Greens made an strong statement on this? And if not, why not?
The Greens have lost their way. They once cared deeply for the homeless homers. Now…
… Shaw! He’s at the bottom of this!
Shaw!!!
The coalition’s a farce – bring back Bill!!!
Shawly not.
It’s shawking to hear.
lolz
Re: Russell McVeagh
The New Zealand Government should advise all Government Departments and SOEs that they are not allowed to use the services of Russell McVeagh
The culture of Russell McVeagh appears to have allowed behaviors to develop that are contrary to the standards expected in New Zealand society.
Real change will only come if it hurts them in the pocket.
Government and SOEs should be petitioned to stop using the services of Russell McVeagh immediately.
Individual lawyers currently working at Russell McVeagh would be free to tender for government work but not under the banner of Russell McVeagh.
What do you think the odds are that this happens.
(I suspect the answer is ‘precisely nil’)
A.
If the problem were confined to Russell McVeigh that might be effective.
+1 Russell McVeagh biggest rogues!
Ask any lawyer about their ‘bloodstock’ offerings in the 1980’s…
Gloating on The Russell McVeagh website
The leading law firm has been named winner of ‘Best Gender Diversity Initiative by National Firm’ at last night’s IFLR Euromoney Legal Media Group Asia Women in Business Law Awards, held in Hong Kong.
Russell McVeagh senior partner and board member Sarah Armstrong said the award highlights the firm’s success in implementing and supporting diversity and inclusion initiatives and progress of its long-term, firm-wide Diversity Project, launched in 2014.
Meanwhile on Newsroom
What we know so far is that five female clerks have made a series of claims, ranging from serious sexual assault to sexual harassment, while they were employed at top-tier law firm Russell McVeagh in Wellington.
Interesting how the two stories are so different.
Calling on NZ Government to stop giving work to any lawyers working under the banner of law firm Russell McVeagh
What about the law firm that hired one of the perpetrators after RMcV sacked him?
According to the Russell McVeagh website:
The firm acts for 11 of the NZX 15 companies, and New Zealand’s major corporates, including numerous energy and utilities companies, all of New Zealand’s retail banks, and New Zealand’s largest company and largest listed company.
These companies should stop giving work to any lawyers working under the banner of law firm Russell McVeagh
They won’t change unless it hurts them in the pocket.
Now that might be more the go
I say go after the big fish first, they are clearly at fault. They want to say “everyone is doing it” do not play into their PR spin. THey are the ones doing it. Stop them first.
Do you have any conflicts of interest in this regard?
My personal experience of lawyers tells me this is not confined to one law firm.
It makes sense to just pick someone and shoot them then – pour encourager les autres.
“What’s black and brown and looks good on a lawyer? A doberman.”
In reality, government decisions can be challenged in court. I have no axe to grind for RMcV or any other dog-food, and I wonder about the timing of this “hit”, and note that “Plan B” hasn’t commented since my question about their interests.
Wow.
Labour looking at revamping abortion laws. Not just decriminalising, but things like where it can be performed (RU486) and the triple-consultation requirement and making referrals mandatory.
Cue the concern-o-bots worried that improving access to healthcare will get in the way of ‘real’ issues…
Sounds like the potential for some good process improvements there
A.
You have to wonder what sort of country we are becoming, certainly not clean and green. And why do we have laws that allow a resource consent to proceed when they don’t even have access in place for the mine and are relying on taking conservation land for that purpose. (but clearly breaking up the consent aka steal our harbour style).
Having to fight these bad consents and our pathetic RMA plunder at will rules, removes valuable community money and resources which could be better spent on actually helping our forests and birds not stopping their habitat being threatened on a weekly basis by bad resource consents!
Remember Pike River, fully consented death trap! NZ are turning into primitive yokels.
https://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/350538/bid-to-stop-new-coal-mine-overturned-in-high-court
Bid to stop new coal mine overturned in High Court
It’s battle and fight and justify and fight and petition and deny and battle and march and protest and promise and argue and weak legislation to paper over and it’s ignore and drink up and listen to the stockmarket reports and check bank balances and consult with tax accountants and order a new car and think about a small plane, and ignore laggards and whiners. What do they know?
This government needs to strengthen the laws protecting conservation values.
Mining mongrels will KEEP coming.
Mining should be seen as the destructive activity it is.
Where are the Green Party on this? If they were more media present on this type of issue then it might help to reassure their missing 100,000, as well as preserve the environment.
Is Labour going to coast along thinking they can implant the Natz agenda, and Jacinda will distract the public from that like JK’s barbecues?
If more people had voted for them, they wouldn’t be spread so thin. But in this case I think that because the Minister of Conservation is a Green MP, the Greens have obligations including acting within the agreement with Labour. So Eugenie Sage needs to act within her roles as Minister i.e. she’s part of the government. If another Green MP spoke out on this, they risk speaking against their own MP and Minister. I think what is happening here is that the Greens now do their work though government, except where a portfolio sits outside of that role.
I assume the Greens (and Labour) don’t want to interfere with due process. If we’re talking about the proposed mine in the Buller, then the permission granted this week was by the High Court. The government can’t just override that. As Patricia points out, the government will need to strengthen laws around this. I’m guessing that this mine was already in the pipeline before the govt changed. I hope they stop it, but I don’t think it’s a simple as some people think.
The mining company still needs to get resources consent from the local councils. And then it needs consent to access the site over conservation land. I assume DOC will decide on that. Given DOC’s history of taking a neutral rather than protective stance in similar situations, I’ll be very interested to see if that changes under the new Minister. I’ve never really been clear where DOC’s directive was coming from on that in the past i.e. legislatively mandated, or from the Minister or what.
https://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/350538/bid-to-stop-new-coal-mine-overturned-in-high-court
Patricia,
Immediately stop using all metal objects. Allow only wood or stone materials in your life.
Especially stop using the internet as it relies on electricity that is conducted everywhere by that demon metal copper. In fact anything electronic which uses all manner of metals
If everybody did this immediately the world would be such a better, less destructive place.
LOLZ!
I see in the Herald online that Avon Cosmetics are shutting shop in Australasia after 55 years here. The company obviously think we are not paying our way down here. No warnings and now 220 staff and 21,400 representatives are without a job – that is a big chunk of the workforce now looking for work.
Apart from a huge upset for their customers obviously its just a day at the office for the restructuring team who has orchestrated this. How much profit is too much profit –
jobs are just severed without a bye your leave.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11995331
Do we really need a company that does nothing productive and just annoys lots of people?
Anyway, their days were probably numbered, on account of Internet retailing.
A.
(Edit: no disrespect to anyone who worked there or liked buying their stuff)
I think it was the loss of jobs that was the worry…
Can you please clarify who the ‘we’ is in that sentence?
Does it include the Avon employees? Or is it just you speaking in the (royal) third person?
Once the ‘we’ is defined then some other questions might open up – like the responsibilities of each member of the ‘we’ towards other members of the ‘we’.
They did not go online, and that is the problem. They have huge competition.
Newspaper puts the slipper in.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DWDnZAsXUAAWU3S.jpg
https://twitter.com/NYDailyNews
And this kid spelt it out.
I don’t want your condolences you f—–g piece of s–t, my friends and teachers were shot. Multiple of my fellow classmates are dead. Do something instead of sending prayers. Prayers won’t fix this. But Gun control will prevent it from happening again,
http://assets.nydailynews.com/polopoly_fs/1.3822789.1518714497!/img/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/article_1200/students16n-4-web.jpg
the heart breaks.
My phone was down I couldn’t get thestandard.org.nz website I tx the Rock radio station about my problem and walar I can get thestandard.org.nz sandflys are at it again Ana to kai
Mate sometimes the site is simply DOWN –
It’s certainly not always a conspiracy to get at you
Looks like the soft power is hardening up.
Professor Anne-Marie Brady says “associates in China had been brought in for questioning by the country’s Ministry of State Security”. “Principles” are only tested when there’s risk involved. Like, for example, our nuclear free policy.
As a small country, we “owe service” (Lao Tzu). There’s a difference between service and vassal status. If Professor Brady’s concerns are valid, it’s time there was some overt push-back.
And here is Matt Nippert on it -we get to see the honorable investigative journalist himself in the vid at the link – recorded after the release of the research paper, and before our elections.
If Nippert says it’s scary stuff (as he did on twitter today), then we should be worried.
I’m not inclined to be “scared” of BAU. Awareness is another thing entirely.
And Judith Collins, who has Chinese commercial influences of her own, is campaigning to be Nat leader.
‘Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. Three times is enemy action.”
Ian Fleming
Congratulations to South Africa New president Cyril Ramaphosa ECO MAORI know that you will be a humble humane president that gets the big picture he tangata he tangata give the people a bright happy future and all will be well
Hillary & Jeremy I tried a sugar supplement starting feeling a the side effects I Google them and what do you know one side effects is it causes cancer.
You no what they say about a plump man it’s true PS I will cut down on my sugar when I sue the police ka kite ano
I Google my high blood pressure pills an the side effects are huge on should Google all the medication you are given as the doctor doesn’t tell you the side effects at least you will know what to expect Ka kite ano