Open mike 17/08/2020

101 comments on “Open mike 17/08/2020 ”

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1. ScottGN 1

   17 August 2020 at 7:06 am

   I imagine that we’re going to get a delay to the election today. And probably it’s for the best, if only to shut the Opposition up. But part of me really wants Jacinda to call the bluff of all those losers. Especially Winston (he practically is part of the Opposition now) with his empty threats and posturing. Just had Judith on Morning Report acting like it’s up to her.
   • Andre 1.1

     17 August 2020 at 7:51 am

     This Stuff piece goes into some of the details of what could come of the political silly buggers games Peters could play. In short, Peters could actually force a delay and trigger some weird shit by withdrawing confidence and bringing down the government. But that's in Winnie's hands, not Judthulhu's.

     https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/300083701/election-2020-decision-day-looms-for-jacinda-ardern-as-winston-peters-threatens-retaliation-if-election-not-delayed
     • ScottGN 1.1.1

       17 August 2020 at 8:20 am

       He said yesterday though that he wouldn’t withdraw confidence from the government. He can wave the threat around all he likes but it’s the nuclear option and will likely blow up in his face.
       • lprent 1.1.1.1

         17 August 2020 at 9:43 am

         It is kind of irrelevent if the writ day was immediate.
       • Just Is 1.1.1.2

         17 August 2020 at 10:42 am

         He would effectively be withdrawing confidence in his own party as being part of the "Government"

         Pretty silly idea on his part.
2. Reality 2

   17 August 2020 at 7:57 am

   Welcome humour in these difficult times is Jane Bowron's column in DomPost today.
   To quote "Brownlee as former Canterbury earthquake recovery minister went lower than a base isolator when he said he was puzzled….. and "Collins having to put her eyebrows into managed isolation after a bruising and brow-beating interview with Kim Hill on RNZ's Morning Report".
3. I Feel Love 3

   17 August 2020 at 8:05 am

   Tonight DPF will release his "exclusive scientific poll" (!!!) on what Aucklanders think of their lockdown. He's very excited!
   • tc 3.1

     17 August 2020 at 8:15 am

     DPF has some scientific ! That's funny, are we sure it's not scientology ?
   • Rapunzel 3.2

     17 August 2020 at 8:17 am

     But what's the chance they got the PM in the numbers she's an Aucklander too – what's she going to have said "I love it, it's simply marvellous"? I doubt it she thinks it's anything other than a big pain in the butt like anyone else. I wonder how it was worded?
4. ScottGN 4

   17 August 2020 at 8:25 am

   Geddis on Morning Report just now picking Oct 17 for Election Day.
   • Just Is 4.1

     17 August 2020 at 10:44 am

     Lucky pick.
5. Goodgrief 5

   17 August 2020 at 9:09 am

   How many people actually believe that this latest outbreak came from frozen food? How many people believe that it came from a breach of the border measures? The revelation that 63% of those working on the border had NOT been tested was a real indication that despite fervent declarations that the borders were tighter than a duck's posterior, the "system" had failed. This, despite, a senior Labour MP installed as Minister of Border Control or Managed Isolation. And the problem is, if the borders are not tight, then this virus will spread like wildfire. We have been compromised and I get the real sense that there are a few people scrambling as hard as they can to cover up failings.
   • Robert Guyton 5.1

     17 August 2020 at 9:18 am

     How many people actually believe Goodgrief's breathless scaremongery?

     How many people believe Goodgrief's intentions here are good. Good grief!
     • lprent 5.1.1

       17 August 2020 at 9:29 am

       Pretty much no-one. FFS this dimwit seems to be using troll techniques that were old in 2008.

       For starter in their breathless stupidity, they neglected to distinguish between front-facing border staff and those who have no realistic way to pick up the virus. Why stick a large swab up peoples noses when they have no realistic way of getting the virus – by that definition you'd want to do it to every person in NZ.

       Of course with Goodgrief that would probably just find vacant space.

       Sounds like a thick as pigshit troll – but hey everyone should have a chance to learn. I'd suggest educating the dimwit to the limits of their capabilities.

       After all with this kind of antique breathless waffling, he is almost as amusing as Gerry Brownlee trying to do the same trick. Look that where it got him.

       Essentially be dumb enough to think that simple insinuation with no details and no backing or links just means that everyone will ignore their ranting, except as an opportunity to play the comedian. Minless waffle like this simply isn’t a basis for robust debate.
       • peter chch 5.1.1.1

         17 August 2020 at 11:17 am

         Gee Lprent, it would be great if you were able to make a post occasionally that was not comprised of infantile abuse linked together to vaguely resemble a thought.

         And you criticise Goodgrief? Goodgrief indeed.

         [lprent: *sigh* Read the policy again, and read my reply to gsays further down this thread.

         If you don’t like it, then leave. Next time I see you do this again – under any name, I’ll assume you’re trying to tell us how to run this site and I’ll ban you under any name until well after any possible election date. Your writing style is so consistent that it isn’t hard to recognize.

         I’m getting a bit annoyed with dealing with someone who after all these years still can’t think rationally and is most noticeable for their considerable abilities at whining. ]
         • Incognito 5.1.1.1.1

           17 August 2020 at 11:27 am

           It’s called a “stress test” and sorts out genuine commenters who might be lacking adequate language skills from genuine trolls who lack in other departments.

           It ain’t pretty, like a bowel dissection to remove a huge tumour, but it is effective and needs to be done from time to time.

           Don’t watch it if you cannot stand the gore and don’t get involved is my advice 😉
           • gsays 5.1.1.1.1.1

             17 August 2020 at 12:31 pm

             Despite the advice in yr last sentence…

             This 'stress testing' has an awful lot in common with bullying.

             From Bullyingfree NZ "Most widely-accepted definitions of bullying are based on four elements: bullying is deliberate, harmful, involves a power imbalance, and has an element of repetition."

             Deliberate check.

             Power imbalance check.

             Repetition check.

             I can't speak for the harm in this case.

             https://www.bullyingfree.nz/about-bullying/what-is-bullying/
             • Incognito …

               17 August 2020 at 1:04 pm

               Yeah, it carries a small risk but nobody is chasing this ‘victim’ on-line on this site. If they change their commenting behaviour, they will be left alone here, except for the ‘counter opinions’ from other commenters, of course, which can be equally if not more harmful.

               I think we should leave this between the people involved.
               • gsays …

                 17 August 2020 at 1:50 pm

                 Roger, wilco.

                 Just planting seeds.
             • lprent …

               17 August 2020 at 6:11 pm

               You're correct in the intent. However it is a pretty specific tactic on my part. I just try to reflect the behaviour of whomever I am bullying, not only as they present themselves, but also as I expect them to continue. I've been in online forums for more than 40 years now – the tactics are pretty obvious after you've seen them tens of thousands of times.

               I just do it harder, much more personally and in a exaggerated level to push the message home that the behaviour is both obvious and I'm perfectly willing to escalate it. This is a classic sysop ploy to get people to either shape up to the sites expectations or to leave the site without dumbarse flame wars.

               In this case, if you read roughly through GG's comment and mine and bother to look past the obvious you'd see exactly what I did. I'll paraphrase the two sets of comments together, GGs sentence preface and my replacement assertion.

               "How many people actually believe that…" GoodGrief is a "dimwit".

               "The revelation that …" that GoodGrief is "thick as pigshit troll".

               "This, despite …" the remote possibility that GoodGrief "should have a chance to learn".

               "And the problem is …" "with this kind of antique breathless waffling, he is almost as amusing as Gerry Brownlee".

               "… and I get the real sense that …" GoodGrief would be "dumb enough to think that simple insinuation with no details and no backing or links..".

               In other words, I just played back GoodGrief's playbook – but I substituted them as the target and then pushed an extreme version of the kind of unsubstantiated assertion crap they were pushing into their comment directly back on to them. I made it immediately personal.

               If you don't do this kind of approach then people using GG's tactics will try to take over the site in the comments section. The standard play is by making straight assertions that are in effect slogans with bothering to argue the basis of their opinion. Mostly anyone who does this will then proceed on to attacking anyone who argues against them – and they will do it personally. It then usually deteriorates into boring flame wars.

               It is the standard playbook on online forums. I just abbreviate the process for a selected few who exhibit the boring predictable behaviours.

               While bans will work – they are a lot of work. You also find that the whiners sit around revving each other up in their local sewer to try to count coup by occasional forays to get a ban.

               With my approach, I find the reputation of what behaviour is expected on this site gets around and we have less moderation work. Also fewer bans.

               I've been doing it since I saw that comments section here was going to the dogs after the first quarter of 2008. It took 2 years of work to get the message across and for the workload to diminish. I still pick the worst 'new' offenders out and demonstrate that the site hasn't changed that approach – if it needs to be handled that way.
               • gsays …

                 17 August 2020 at 11:23 pm

                 Thanks for shining a light on yr motives and intent.
         • greywarshark 5.1.1.1.2

           17 August 2020 at 1:50 pm

           peter chch There, there, dear, dear. We are all a bit overwrought what with the decline in political standards, our election looming, Covid 19 twisting our health system, stressing our relationships even in families and wrecking our economy. Better put up if you can stand the strain, it won't get better for some time to come. Otherwise take a powder, try sherbert.
     • Goodgrief 5.1.2

       17 August 2020 at 9:29 am

       None so blind as those that refuse to see Robert.
       • ianmac 5.1.2.1

         17 August 2020 at 9:39 am

         …distinguish between front-facing border staff and those who have no realistic way to pick up the virus. Why stick a large swab up peoples noses when they have no realistic way of getting the virus – by that definition you'd want to do it to every person in NZ….

         That is the point which has not been clearly outlined enough by Hipkins. If I deliver

         cabbages to a hotel need I be tested?
       • In Vino 5.1.2.2

         17 August 2020 at 8:16 pm

         Goodgrief – the saying actually is 'those who will not see', and it is an old saying from the times when 'will' meant 'want to', as it still does in modern German. (English and German come from the same roots.)

         So, the point is that the person who does not want to see is blindest of all. It seems to me that it is you who have strong, naive, youthful visions, rather than the far more cultured Robert.

         Refuse is a conscious decision, which ruins the saying. Not wanting to reflects the all too frequent practice of wishful thinking. To me you sound more wishful.
     • Red 5.1.3

       17 August 2020 at 9:32 am

       The balance of probabilities Robert it is the border. Americold manager tells us that order have not been shipped from their Vic site to Mt Wtgn for weeks. It may not be anybody’s fault, all it would take is a false negative on the last test Does any one know how reliable is the test re false positives and negatives Saying all of that inexcusable mistakes have been made
       • lprent 5.1.3.1

         17 August 2020 at 9:41 am

         Americold manager tells us that order have not been shipped from their Vic site to Mt Wtgn for weeks

         That would be useful to know if the genomic sequence said that this strain of the virus had come from Victoria. Since that hasn't been stated, then that would have to be considered as being irrelevant. Essentially the statement was issued because some mindless fools in the advance of data had been speculating wildly and irresponsibly.

         What would be relevant would be a list of destinations from which freight had been received, when it was dispatched and what temperatures they were stored at.

         Viable corona viruses have been detected years after being frozen. At low but not freezing temperatures, they have been detected as being viable more than a month (and even months) after being chilled.
         • Andre 5.1.3.1.1

           17 August 2020 at 9:56 am

           The outbreak strain is called the B.1.1.1 strain, which is found in Oz and the UK, as well as places like Peru, Uruguay, Bangladesh etc. But not in the US or China or India.

           https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2020/08/it-s-b-1-1-1-kiwi-scientists-identify-virus-family-of-mystery-covid-19-outbreak.html
           • lprent 5.1.3.1.1.1

             17 August 2020 at 7:26 pm

             It is going to be interesting if they can track it down. If it got picked up by a warm body handling chilled or frozen goods, they may find it on goods stored.

             But it may also show up in an associated shipment without an infected warm body link back to the cold storage. Which hopefully that chain could show the link.

             What doesn't seem likely at present is that it came from our warm body border protection system. But if that did happen, then we should see showing up in further infections already from the possible earlier index source than the one we know about already. They caught this cluster really early.

             The worst case would be that no source was found. Then it means tat we're probably going to need to start testing cold imports and more intense warm body testing as well.
             • Andre …

               17 August 2020 at 7:51 pm

               Well, suppose B.1.1.1 is found in Americold's Melbourne staff. Is that a smoking gun, or one that just feels maybe a bit warmish to the touch?

               Suppose they find it on something in the cold store here. Is that a smoking gun, or maybe it's from our local staff that got infected and transferred it while pre-symptomatic?

               I don't find it implausible it came through the border in self-propelled meat. Suppose patient zero got it in transit and the virus was a bit slow to take hold. So day 3 test is negative (quite reasonably). Then for whatever reason the day 12 test is a false negative (false negative rates for PCR testing have sometimes been stated as high as 5%). Now patient zero is out loose. Suppose patient zero then passes it on to someone that is asymptomatic/low symptom that doesn't get checked (maybe 50% of cases). Who then passes it on to our first known index case, with no traceability to the border.

               Sure that's a longish chain of low probability bad-luck links so it's very unlikely, looking at it from the perspective of an individual. But looking at it from the perspective of the country with thousands of people coming through the border, it's a bit more plausible that something like that has happened once or more.

               Let alone the possibility it came in on aircrew on the Oz run (who haven’t been routinely tested before now because Oz was allegedly safe) who passed it on while asymptomatic to an asymptomatic/low symptom link.

               I kinda look at it as a heads up that there's a lot of gaps we've left for the virus to get through, including maybe a frozen goods gap we hadn't thought of. We're never going to plug them all, but we certainly can do a better job of plugging the biggest gaps.
         • McFlock 5.1.3.1.2

           17 August 2020 at 10:37 am

           also, "weeks" might well be in the right timeframe for this outbreak.
           • lprent 5.1.3.1.2.1

             17 August 2020 at 7:31 pm

             Why? Because of the B.1.1.1 divergence? I thought that was a reasonably early strain.
             • Andre …

               17 August 2020 at 7:57 pm

               Long survival time on a frozen surface plus long incubation period in the index case.
               • McFlock …

                 17 August 2020 at 8:27 pm

                 And maybe the first person with it at Americold was asymptomatic and work was pretty much their only "close contact", that could add another full generation to the timeframe.

                 If "weeks" means "mid-March", that would make it doubtful because I'd have expected the phenomenon to have been discovered earlier as a source of multiple clusters around the world.

                 But if "weeks" means "a month", the math is close enough to keep it in mind as a slim but valid possibility when the cluster seems to heavily involve a freight agency.
             • Incognito …

               17 August 2020 at 9:54 pm

               Not sure what you consider a “reasonably early strain”. It is a few sub-lineages down from the main trunk, obviously.

               From the Feeds, I happened to read this: https://sciblogs.co.nz/code-for-life/2020/08/17/covid-19-sequence-the-viral-genomes-of-all-border-cases/

               In there, some links to tweets that contained these links to info on B.1.1.1:

               https://nextstrain.org/ncov/oceania/2020-08-11?c=pangolin_lineage&d=tree&label=clade:20A [click on Pangolin lineage under Phylogeny in the top LH corner of the interactive graph to highlight B.1.1.1]

               https://cov-lineages.org/lineages/lineage_B.1.1.1.html

               BTW, the tweets themselves are informative too, not the usual Twitter ‘banter’.

               Have fun 😉
               • lprent …

                 17 August 2020 at 11:01 pm

                 Pangolin lineage under Phylogeny in the top LH corner of the interactive graph to highlight B.1.1.1]

                 Ah I see what you mean. On the timeline, it was pretty early.

                 For some reason, I usually look at the mutational divergence. That B1.1.x is one of the branches with quite a lot of generic divergence for covid-19.
       • weka 5.1.3.2

         17 August 2020 at 10:03 am

         People have an odd relationship with probability. If there's an 80% chance it was a border control issue, and a 20% chance it was imported food, then both have to be addressed given the nature of the risk.

         They're actually excusable and understandable mistakes. Everyone is on a big learning curve here and as far as I can see nearly every time a mistake has been made, the relevant people have stepped up and remedied it. There are some exceptions to that. The MoH handling of PPE for disabled people and care workers being notable. But those came about because of systems that existed before covid that we were apparently happy enough to live with despite the negative impacts.
         • Red 5.1.3.2.1

           17 August 2020 at 10:26 am

           Not testing front line staff and been told by the MOH is inexcusable Weka. On the basis of it is hardly and unknown risk, likewise it is highly likely and a high risk so government a f ministry should have all over it. If this was an OSH case the managing and mitigating risk the kitchen sink works be thrown at you. The minister of health told us he was advised by the ministry this was happening and it wasn’t There is also a similar theme with PEP, flu vaccine distribution etc hence possibly a systemic issue her the needs to be addressed and some accountability as with our it, things won’t change
           • Red 5.1.3.2.1.1

             17 August 2020 at 10:29 am

             Sorry tidied above up

             Not testing front line staff and been told by the MOH it is happening and it is not is inexcusable Weka. On the basis of it is hardly and unknown risk, likewise it is highly likely and a high risk so government and the ministry should have been all over it. If this was an OSH investigation re the managing and mitigating of risk, the kitchen sink would be thrown at you. There is also a similar theme with PEP, flu vaccine distribution etc hence possibly a systemic issue here that needs to be addressed and some accountability as with out it, things won’t change
             • weka …

               17 August 2020 at 11:49 am

               If it's inexcusable, what should happen? All the people involved should be fired? How will that help?

               As I said, there were pre-existing issues in our health system and people weren't jumping up and down about those before covid.

               Not testing more at the border wasn't a high risk, or we would have had an outbreak much earlier. It's good they've looked at it and have tightened up. This is what we do when mistakes are made, we learn from them, remedy them and create more robust situations. It's all new, there are going to be mistakes and things people haven't thought about.
             • Bearded Git …

               17 August 2020 at 11:51 am

               Red…my understanding is that the 37% of the workers that were tested on the border were the high risk people who had face to face (or close to) contact with incoming travellers.

               The other 63% were not tested because they had no direct contact with travellers.
           • Adrian 5.1.3.2.1.2

             17 August 2020 at 1:20 pm

             Approx 40% of cases need to be determined by medical observation and assessment of symptoms hence why our numbers are about 40% higher than that reported to WHO, Testing only gives assurance of incidence in about 63% of cases although I did hear a figure of 80% confidence yesterday by Bloomfield. The true front line staff have been getting daily temperature and symptom interviews since this shit fight stared.

             Please try to keep up.
     • greywarshark 5.1.4

       17 August 2020 at 9:42 am

       The government might be making deliberate mistakes just to keep a heightened sense of anxiety and caution going to prevent complacency! Not likely; I think they felt they had done with that and were looking at the next thing, but leaky politics will turn up when new ways are being tried, just like leaky roofs.

       Be still wild and woolly Gg, government is still here trying to get it right and watertight, not like the pesky private sector who could sail away on The Crimson Permanent Assurance.

       https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CYac8ngF1vg

       (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aSO9OFJNMBA
     • I Feel Love 5.1.5

       17 August 2020 at 10:49 am

       +100 Robert.
     • PaddyOT 5.1.6

       17 August 2020 at 11:30 am

       Where'sthe border leak?
       "50,468 vehicles had been stopped at checkpoints and of those 676 were turned around for undertaking non-essential travel". And these figures are only after the set up of road blocks around the Auckland region. Travellers' reasons at the border stops are taken at face value.

       How is nearly 50000 vehicles of passengers as potential virus carriers crossing lock down borders to travel widely not a concern? If a person is an essential traveller presumably the Covid19 virus leaves them alone.
       http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/122465088/two-auckland-men-crossed-checkpoints-to-visit-skycity-hamilton-casino?cid=app-android
   • Andre 5.2

     17 August 2020 at 9:52 am

     I don't see grounds for pointing the finger at any one of the several possibilities for how the new outbreak started. Nor do I see grounds to exclude that it got in through the coldstore or through the border somehow.

     In all of the feasible scenarios, it's a very very small probability of something happening multiplied by a large number of times for that tiny probability to come through. Kinda like buying Powerball tickets, realistically you're almost certainly going to be better off just burning that cash for a bit of warmth on a cold day than buying the ticket, but dozens of people win multiple millions each year.
   • mauī 5.3

     17 August 2020 at 11:08 am

     The system has failed! and the virus is now pouring through the border. The public is panicing… Not!
   • AB 5.4

     17 August 2020 at 11:10 am

     Gerry GoodGrief . A concerned citizen with no ulterior motives. Just asking questions.
     • I Feel Love 5.4.1

       17 August 2020 at 2:44 pm

       "Illusory knowledge" – had a good chat to the tweens about all this, beware of any "This is stuff THEY don't want you to know" statements, there's only a few amongst us (like GG above) that know the TRUTH!!!!
   • Draco T Bastard 5.5

     17 August 2020 at 6:54 pm

     You're the type of person who, during a war, would complain that not all of our defence personnel have bullets flying at them aren't you?

     To put that in context I once heard that it required 8 support personnel to put one front-line person on a battlefield. That was awhile ago admittedly and it may have changed since but there's still going to be more support personnel than soldiers.

     Now, here's an important point: If all of our defence personnel actually had bullets flying at them there would only be one reason – that we'd lost.

     Same goes with our quarantine facilities. If we need to have the support personnel tested its because the virus is rampant and we're all fucked.

     There's another lesson here as well that you need to learn. That lesson is just how important those support personnel are to have an effective front-line which is why, in any good organisation, there's more support personnel.
6. ianmac 6

   17 August 2020 at 9:34 am

   Od Dear Old Jerry. What have you done lad? The first part of a poem by Victor Billot on Newsroom

   Outlining Facts

   I am the Shadowy Minister of Hidden Agendas.

   Of the public good I am the Great Defender.

   I jumped the shark and went on the lam,

   I’m down with Poot Evans and his coronascam.

   Is Ashley Bloomfield a reptile shapeshifter?

   Is Bishop Elvis Tokoroa a Level Four grifter?

   I’m just asking questions. I’m just outlining facts.

   I’ve got bundles of them. I’ve got several sacks…..

   https://www.newsroom.co.nz/a-poem-for-gerry-brownlee
   • greywarshark 6.1

     17 August 2020 at 9:45 am

     There's poetic licence abounding. In The Press Jeff Bell calls on Dr Seuss's type of plain speaking, with rhyme and reason.

     https://www.stuff.co.nz/opinion/114832270/jeff-bell-cartoons
7. Rosemary McDonald 7

   17 August 2020 at 9:50 am

   Those leaky borders will be a thing of the past….Hone Harawira is on the case. Iwi should in in charge of checkpoints….the army and the cops are just too soft, polite.

   “The police, the army and Ngāti Whātua’s massive checkpoints just north of Te Hana, they’ve done a good job, a very bold effort. Unfortunately, because it’s driven by the police, with the support of iwi, rather than by iwi with the support of police, the tenor of the questions has been a little light. Not as demanding as they would be if we were running them,” he said.

   Harawira says that plans are now being made on “how best to get rid of” those who shouldn’t be sheltering in Northland.

   “We can put in the check points we had last time. We can work with the police as another option, with mobile patrols, or we might consider other action like a sweep right through Te Tai Tokerau, from the Cape [Reinga] all the way down. Basically call in at every tourist camp and holiday park and say ‘pack up you’re moving’.

   Despite his reputation as a man of action, Harawira’s not looking to be a vigilante. “We’ve worked really well with the police and our aim is to maintain that good relationship with them. Our aim is not to be kicking down doors and throwing people out onto the road. But it is to be firm and positive and clear. Who cares what their reasons are, we really don’t care. They shouldn’t have come up in the first place.”

   https://thespinoff.co.nz/atea/17-08-2020/iwi-leaders-are-hoping-for-the-best-and-preparing-for-the-worst/

   Many Kiwis who live in their campervans and caravans winter over up here…bringing steady income to the campgounds and a casual labour force for some of the local businesses. There must be a better way.
   • weka 7.1

     17 August 2020 at 12:20 pm

     Interesting. I can see the point for L3 Aucklanders. Not sure about everyone else, and they presumably could to a 2 week self isolation with a bit of planning. Would be interested to see what other Māori are saying. I certainly went through a bit of a thing about the rumours that Aucklanders were escaping and flying south, so I get the impetus to close regional borders. I'd be good with that the other way too, if it had been my area that had an outbreak.
8. Muttonbird 8

   17 August 2020 at 10:16 am

   With a nod to Gerry.

   If you were the opposition or an opposition sympathiser, suffered from severe Jacinda Derangement Syndrome and was determined to sabotage her re-election chances by re-introducing Coronavirus to the country, how would you do it?

   Through a frozen goods logistics firm?
   • Stuart Munro 8.1

     17 August 2020 at 10:37 am

     Something in the post – same as calici. But introduced to South Auckland to benefit from the disparagement that end of town routinely suffers.

     If that happened, the DNA testing must be scaring the pants off the perpetrator.
     • Muttonbird 8.1.1

       17 August 2020 at 11:34 am

       You'd have to have specialist temperature controlled transport rather than normal post..?
       • Stuart Munro 8.1.1.1

         17 August 2020 at 12:27 pm

         I wouldn't count on that – a little moisture could probably keep it viable long enough.
         • Incognito 8.1.1.1.1

           17 August 2020 at 12:31 pm

           https://www.dhs.gov/science-and-technology/sars-calculator
           • Stuart Munro 8.1.1.1.1.1

             17 August 2020 at 12:41 pm

             Nice. Or, for the less technical:

             Q: What are the variables for how long the virus stays on certain surfaces?

             Dr. Nasia Safdar: It depends on how wet the environment is. It tends to dry up pretty quickly. That's one reason why, in the case of a confirmed COVID-19 case, the recommendation is not to rush in to clean that right away, but actually to leave the room be for a little bit so the viral particles can dry out and be less infectious. Then, the individual can go in and clean. So a few days, I would say is the best we can say, but it's not a few weeks, by any means.

             https://www.wpr.org/where-does-novel-coronavirus-hang-out-how-long-does-it-stay-and-how-do-i-get-rid-it
   • Incognito 8.2

     17 August 2020 at 12:20 pm

     You must suffering from something much worse than “severe Jacinda Derangement Syndrome” to willingly and knowingly put the lives of fellow Kiwis at risk and cause huge economic damage. That said, drug smugglers/traffickers put their own lives at risk so those sorts of people are out there, tormented & desperate souls that are ripe for the picking by unscrupulous agents of death & doom 🙁

     The outbreak strain was a new one in NZ.
     • Muttonbird 8.2.1

       17 August 2020 at 2:11 pm

       NZ is rife with conspiracy theories at the moment. Some spread by senior politicians no less, for political purposes. Thought I would just add another one, holding up a mirror to that.

       But they, the authorities, still seem focussed on patient zero at the Mt Wellington cool-store. In the absence of a patient further down the tree, what else have they to go on?

       It's been suggested by other conspiracy theorists that they are just covering up a MIQ breach but I don't think their behaviour so far supports this theory. MoH so far have been very careful to get as much information out there as possible, consistent with their Covid eradication approach throughout. I think they'd own up to a verified mistake if that is confirmed.

       While the mystery around the August outbreak continues there will be speculation.

       One other thing to note is the hardcore testing of port workers and truck drivers out of Tauranga…
       • Incognito 8.2.1.1

         17 August 2020 at 2:20 pm

         There are two things here: 1) containing the outbreak; 2) finding the source and prevent it from happening again.

         If it was an ‘accident’ then the chances of this happening again could be quite slim given that we enjoyed 102 days of no community outbreak.

         Wider, more frequent, and less intrusive (and laborious!) testing might be a good way forward even if it comes with a slightly lower accuracy and sensitivity.
9. SPC 9

   17 August 2020 at 10:24 am

   On the issue of our past complacency.

   It's time for a new workplace policy.

   Whenever anyone takes time off because of symptoms – they inform the workplace and their colleagues are stood down until the test result is known. This would speed up people getting tests and reduce the risk of spread at the workplace (and related homes – partners workplaces and childrens schools). Thus we prevent cluster growth at the begining.

   In addition to doubling sick leave to 2 weeks, the government should compensate business for the days staff are not at work while waiting for a colleageu's test result.
10. Andre 10

    17 August 2020 at 11:21 am

    Another WTAF moment from Doltistan. After all the ranting from the Fanta Fascist about how fraudulent mail-in voting is, his campaign in North Carolina sends out forms for requesting mail-in ballots to voters. With the genital-grabbing gargoyle's mug plastered all over them.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/16/politics/postal-service-trump-absentee-ballot-request-mail-usps/index.html
    • Treetop 10.1

      17 August 2020 at 4:15 pm

      If Trump cannot provide a postal service which is capable of handing postal votes, he does not deserve to be a nominated candidate for President.
      • Andre 10.1.1

        17 August 2020 at 4:29 pm

        It's an interesting question as to why Kim Jong Orange has any say whatsoever over the postal service. Article 1 section 8 clause 7 of the constitution specifically tells congress to set up a postal service, and doesn't say anything about the preznit having anything to do with it.

        I'spose the likeliest explanation is congressional laziness and once they had set it up, they figured job done, and handed it over the the prez to run. That a prez might choose to sabotage it to try to gain electoral advantage would never have occurred to anybody.

        There are some laws making it a felony to interfere with the postal service. It'll be worth a few tubs of popcorn if anyone tries to invoke those in the pushback against the vandalism that's happening.
        • Treetop 10.1.1.1

          17 August 2020 at 4:52 pm

          Trump is desperate and he will use any tactic to increase his chance of being re elected. Postal interference from the Prez and everything was well thought out.
11. ScottGN 11

    17 August 2020 at 11:28 am

    25 deaths overnight in Victoria. Jesus.
    • Bearded Git 11.1

      17 August 2020 at 11:56 am

      Scott…at least the case numbers are falling slowly…285 yesterday.

      The fatalities obviously lag the case numbers.
      • ScottGN 11.1.1

        17 August 2020 at 12:17 pm

        There’s still over 2000 active cases in Victoria’s aged care sector. Sadly there will be many more deaths before this is over there.
      • ScottGN 11.1.2

        17 August 2020 at 12:17 pm

        There’s still over 2000 active cases in Victoria’s aged care sector. Sadly there will be many more deaths before this is over there.
12. Poission 12

    17 August 2020 at 11:34 am

    When we do the right thing.

    https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1294722809621553152
    • weka 12.1

      17 August 2020 at 12:22 pm

      going to be really interesting to see what the world makes of us getting a second outbreak under control (assuming that we do).
    • Ad 12.2

      17 August 2020 at 1:15 pm

      Our global leadership moment about Covid-19 hasn’t popped …….. yet.

      ABC news puts it like this:

      "For 102 days New Zealand stood out as the global poster child of the COVID-19 era.

      It was a nation at one with its "elimination" strategy, with a leader who enlisted the cooperation of citizens while Facetiming in lockdown from the frontline of her family life, and in turn delivered a virus-free return to business-as-more-or-less-usual in record time.

      There are plenty of experts who agree that the Ardern Government's approach to coronavirus offers a masterclass in the management of a public health crisis.

      The urgent question now facing Jacinda Ardern and New Zealanders — as cases appear to be growing quickly in a nation with a population the size of Sydney — is what this second wave will reveal about the broader effectiveness of that strategy and perhaps most importantly, how sustainable it is — politically, as well as for public health.

      Australia must watch closely."

      https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-15/new-zealand-coronavirus-new-cases-elimination-ardern/12559070
13. Sabine 13

    17 August 2020 at 12:33 pm

    it most certainly is nothing like the flu

    https://www.rawstory.com/2020/08/doctors-see-rise-in-limb-threatening-blood-clots-during-19-crisis/
    • joe90 13.1

      17 August 2020 at 12:49 pm

      Indeed, it's frightening AF.

      Apart from the elderly and those with underlying health conditions, Covid-19 is just a mild illness, isn’t it? Think again. JUDITH GRANT, who was to have presented at this year’s Safeguard conference, outlines her personal experience.

      https://www.safeguard.co.nz/databases/modus/sgfree/sgmagfree/JRNL-182-SG-56?

      In a review published online in JAMA Neurology, researchers from Yale University School of Medicine in New Haven, Connecticut examined available case reports and clinical studies and found that the most commonly observed neurological effects in COVID-19 to date are headache, anosmia, and ageusia.5 Headache may affect up to one-third of patients, while prevalence rates of olfactory and gustatory dysfunction vary widely across settings. In addition, more severe events including impaired consciousness, seizure, stroke, Guillain-Barré syndrome, and encephalopathy have also been noted in COVID-19 patients.

      https://www.neurologyadvisor.com/topics/general-neurology/critical-insights-into-the-neurologic-effects-of-covid-19/
    • Treetop 13.2

      17 August 2020 at 4:42 pm

      The symptoms of ischaemia in a limb cannot be ignored and the sooner symptoms are reported the greater the chance of saving a limb. Blood clots else where can be missed.

      Why blood clots form in Covid needs to be understood.
      • Grafton Gully 13.2.1

        17 August 2020 at 5:25 pm

        Why the blood clots form does need to be understood and it looks like inflammation is a major factor. Reassuringly, trials to explore treatment options for people at risk for covid-linked blood clots are underway.

        "The triggers responsible for COVID-19–associated coagulopathy remain elusive. Potential triggers include cytokine-induced overexpression of tissue factor, endothelial dysfunction with loss of its antithrombotic phenotype, stasis, and hypoxia (see figure). This study confirms the correlation between markers of inflammation and coagulation and supports the concept that inflammation is a major driver of the hypercoagulable state. An inflammation-driven hypercoagulable state has also been reported in critically ill patients with viral pneumonia caused by H1N1 or SARS-CoV-1.7 The VTE rate in such patients ranged from 5% to 25%, which is similar to the rates observed in patients with COVID-19.8–10Although intensified anticoagulation regimens may reduce the risk of a thrombotic event, the results of this study raise the possibility that they may increase major bleeding rates to unacceptable levels in critically ill patients. As the world waits for the second wave of COVID-19, randomized trials comparing anticoagulation dosing strategies are urgently needed. Fortunately, several such trials are under way."

        https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7378461/
14. SPC 14

    17 August 2020 at 12:44 pm

    Trump raises the issue of a pardon for Snowden

    One way to divide the neo-liberal multi-lateral global market Deep State from patriots – divide the opposition to the regime.

    https://twitter.com/RachBlevins/status/1295004785003749376
    • Sabine 14.1

      17 August 2020 at 1:09 pm

      i don't think anyone not planning on voting for the orange shitshow will do so because of this.
    • Andre 14.2

      17 August 2020 at 1:12 pm

      Martyred Saint Julian will be feeling the sting of betrayal. Especially since Jules actually worked to help Twitterfinger J. Putinpussy and Snowden didn't.
15. Tony Veitch (not etc.) 15

    17 August 2020 at 1:24 pm

    OMG Ashley Bloomfield displaying the patience of a saint in answering the inane questions from the journos – intent on finding some fault in the government's management of the borders.

    I feel like McFlock from the other day – a deep temptation to fell them to fuck off!
    • AB 15.1

      17 August 2020 at 4:25 pm

      If you've ever had to deliver a difficult project, or recover one that was in a mess, then had to endure ignorant senior managers question your competence and integrity and demand impossible levels of certainty – you've had a tiny taste of what Ashley is enduring. (Disclaimer: my handle is only coincidentally the same Dr B's initials)
    • Bearded Git 15.2

      17 August 2020 at 5:06 pm

      Bloomfield is smart enough to know that the media would love it if he rose to the bait.

      Tova, in particular, is a legend in her own mind.
16. Adrian 16

    17 August 2020 at 1:29 pm

    Something that I have not heard put forward as a possibility is the dumping of frozen shit from an aircraft. It used to happen but may have been contained in more modern systems.

    Any aircraft experts about?

    Mt Wellington off course close to the flightpath to Mangere
    • Andre 16.1

      17 August 2020 at 1:37 pm

      It'd been a very very long time since waste dumping from commercial aircraft was a routine thing. Nowadays it needs valves to fail and leak. So blue ice incidents are only a few per year worldwide.
      • Graeme 16.1.1

        17 August 2020 at 1:48 pm

        Also there’s very few passengers on inbound flights these days, so well within the holding capacity of the aircraft’s systems. Those passengers are all being tested as well and that strain hasn’t come up in border testing. Still a possibility from crew but they wouldn’t be going to the loo over Auckland
17. Byd0nz 17

    17 August 2020 at 1:30 pm

    Those dickhead reporters are trying hard to discredit Dr Bloomfield or trying to trip him up on the testing at the border, this seems to be their angle to help the Nats to make inroads for their election chances, but it's a bit boring listening to some of these reporters questions, lots of those questions have previously asked and answered, but still they persist on this line. Where is the quality of reporters at. Fn zero.
    • I Feel Love 17.1

      17 August 2020 at 2:48 pm

      In the US the health experts (Fauci etc) all need armed guards, get hate mail & death threats, heaps of them are quitting.
    • greywarshark 17.2

      17 August 2020 at 4:32 pm

      Government should note the questions with answers and present them at the start of every media show with the FAQ and if the same question comes up again, that person goes to the back of the queue – that'd larn them.
18. Corey Humm 18

    17 August 2020 at 1:39 pm

    While it makes sense to delay I believe if labour werent forced by nzf with threats of a no confidence vote they would have stayed the course, Winston needs to be fired from Cabinet, he's been spreading conspiracy's to foreign media and threatening govt instability. We need an upper house (NZs parliament has far too much centralized executive power, do we really want the likes of a Nat/act coalition under Collins having unchecked power? Extend the parliamentary term by a year and add two extra boxes to tick (under MMP or STV ) Australia and USA can do it why not us?

    A constitution (the fact that Winston could install Judith Collins if he really wanted to just because he doesn't like the election date needs to be a law, should he able to do that to a dying govt in the middle of a crisis or show the no Waka jumping extend to coalition partners , if a small party jumps ship should an election immediately be required? )

    i believe jacinda was forced by Winston otherwise its interesting because The American left is busy trying to prove to the world that social distanced voting and postal voting is reliable, Jacinda one of the most popular world leaders inadvertently gave Trump a gift, Trump can now say "the kiwis delayed their election because they don't trust mail voting or social distancing voting during a pandemic, why should the USA"

    What a mess. I just want the NZ election and the us election over. We've been hearing about both for years. Let's keep moving I guess.
    • I Feel Love 18.1

      17 August 2020 at 2:51 pm

      Other countries have had elections in the last few months, some have delayed, it's really no big deal, at least now it's been delayed, we have a date, hopefully plans in place if further lockdown, the opposition want dissent and confusion, Adern once again shuts the trap.
19. Chess Player 19

    17 August 2020 at 1:44 pm

    Finally some good news for all those hard working citizens who have been gouged for decades by these non-performing troughers.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12357124
20. Observer Tokoroa 20

    17 August 2020 at 3:59 pm

    Just Wondering

    If Judith Collins visited 51 Muslim deaths on mid March in Christchurch ?

    A lot of Injuries. It would have been nice if Judith Collins had acknowledged the proceedings on Friday 15th March 2019, and its Awful carnage.
21. Macro 21

    17 August 2020 at 4:19 pm

    A very good restatement of the Fermi Paradox
    • I Feel Love 21.1

      17 August 2020 at 4:50 pm

      Same if a time travel machine were possible, wouldn't one have popped up sometime in our past (unless, of course, it got stomped on by a dinosaur and is on an endless loop).

      & here's proof we have slipped into a parallel universe, there are 5 Young Ones, not 4, in the first series there's another long haired hippy flatmate who just sits there and doesn't say anything, he pops up in every episode, it's bloody spooky!!! (Father Time has to step around him in the Time episode).
      • Andre 21.1.1

        17 August 2020 at 5:03 pm

        I always thought The Young Ones needed a science nerd as well.
      • Sacha 21.1.2

        17 August 2020 at 8:18 pm

        Wouldn't you travel to the future?
22. greywarshark 22

    17 August 2020 at 4:40 pm

    We are always thinking and watching the USA and Trump. Let's ignore Trump and replace him with Julian Assange. Now there is a martyred hero who deserves support.

    US decision to file new charges against Julian Assange ‘astonishing and potentially abusive’

    Lawyer for WikiLeaks founder slams US decision to serve a second indictment at the 11th hour alleging that Assange conspired with hackers, as a potential abuse of process

    https://www.computerweekly.com/news/252487666/US-decision-to-file-new-charges-against-Julian-Assange-astonishing-and-potentially-abusive-court

    https://7news.com.au/news/crime/lawyers-call-for-julian-assange-release-c-1243830
23. Treetop 23

    17 August 2020 at 5:01 pm

    Trump is doing this (looking at pardoning Assange) to take the heat off the postal fiasco.

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