And exactly why did WHO's Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus spend weeks telling there was no need to stop international travel, all the while praising China's response that primarily involved shutting tens of millions into their appartments and stopping all travel within China?
When he knew that virus's don't know the difference between the borders of a city and a country?
When he knew millions had evaded the initial Hubei lockdown?
When he knew the silent transmission characteristic that made it certain the virus would get out of China?
If the rest of the world had stopped all international travel out of China at the start of Feb, instead of now, we would not be facing this crisis. Instead China insisted that any such travel ban would be 'racist', while at the same time imposing the same measures domestically.
These are not actions in good faith. Some hard questions need answers.
It's a pretty weird twist of global fate when the country and the government that essentially caused the outbreak in the first place is the country that is using that same moment to become the predominant power of the world.
Rather than send Xi Jinping the bill for all of it, we are sending him exports and gratitude.
yes, but as i said, at the same time you had cases already in the US.
So, we know fuck all, all we know is that the first one to raise the issue was a chinese doctor, and that the first country to do something was China.
As of now no one has any idea what it is that brought that virus forth (and no the food was not it) and we don't know who patient one is and where he/she could have potentially been exposed to it.
For what its worth the last 'flu' season in the US was bad, very very bad, and a few of these dead could possibly counted towards the Virus. But as the US did not test, D. Trump the fuckwit refused testing for the longest time they now have a worse outbreak then China ever had.
Sabine, I like you, but you're wrong here. It started in China same way SARS et al started due to sloppy OSH & their Gov not monitoring/ regulating/banning live wildlife 'wet' markets. So to state fact and say its' Wuhan or Chinese Flu is not in itself inherently racist albeit is true that racists will like to play up it's Chinese origin but that doesn't mean you have to go PC and doublespeak. A spade is a spade & a shovel is a shovel.
Would the current situation be much different if a similar virus had emerged in Saudi Arabia or Kentucky. Probably the only difference would be that it wouldn't be in China.
Look, if you see racism in laying out a fact (ie it started in Wuhan, China & Chinese actions/inactions helped it spread as they withheld info & misled) , you've got a problem. If everything is racist & fascist then ultimately nothing is …the terms become devalued & meaningless.
I suggest the tardy response by governments other than the Chinese is more responsible for the spread of coronavirus outside China.
"On December 31 last year, China alerted WHO to several cases of unusual pneumonia in Wuhan, a port city of 11 million people in the central Hubei province. The virus was unknown."
"The Chinese scientists pulled no punches. “The number of deaths is rising quickly,” they wrote. The provision of personal protective equipment for health workers was strongly recommended. Testing for the virus should be done immediately a diagnosis was suspected. They concluded that the mortality rate was high. And they urged careful surveillance of this new virus in view of its “pandemic potential”.
That was in January. Why did it take the UK government eight weeks to recognise the seriousness of what we now call Covid-19?"
China is trolling the world with alternative histories right now, but the Chinese government was responsible for not stopping the initial spread of the virus.
Fuck off with your irrelevant accusations Ad. No one new what this thing was then. It would have taken a number of weeks for the Chinese to wake up to what they were dealing with. We’re at the arsehole of the world and have had six weeks to get it right an start getting in testing supplies etc. we’re still fucking it up but looking good on TV. We’re always late yet we are in the world’s best place to stop it. Throwing stones at China and being slow pick up on what they learnt means we are useless not them.
Possibly the most effective response was that by Singapore.
They started preparing immediately after the first warning at the end of December. Then they went in as a full scale operation in late January. I believe they ended up with 266 cases and no deaths.
I remember advocating on 6 March that we should be getting our arses into gear rather than just ignoring things. At the time I suggested we should simply do precisely what Singapore was doing. Don't you wish now that we had done so?
By the way. If you one of those who commented in reply to my opinion are you still happy with the views you then expressed about how self isolation and so on was just fine?
The outbreak was (probably) essentially caused by a virus transmitting from one species to another
When researchers based at the Wuhan biolab publish papers in Nature back in 2015 detailing how they had recombined a novel bat virus and the original SAR's virus, then yes you are technically correct.
Incidentally my Chinese source tells me three interesting things. One is that the ethnic/language group in Hubei speak a quite different dialect from the dominant Manderin/Cantonese. They have long been regarded with disdain by the central authorities.
Secondly, and I have no English language reference for this so it's in the very grey zone of 'maybe', Chinese social media sources are saying that the Wuhan lab has been recently demolished and no longer exists.
Thirdly the CCP has just made a big dog and pony show of expelling all US journalists from China; journalists who spoke the language and knew their way around the system. Any remaining foreign journalists will be hugely intimidated by this, and given the way they closely monitor their activities, the chances of any independent proof of what actually happened in Wuhan is now close to zero.
The other real consideration is the high probability of of an unintentional leak from the lab, either due to lax procedures or the well known animal trade from these labs that has documented instance of happening before.
Absolutely I understand what I'm implying regarding intent. I’m pointing out the dots, it’s up to you how you decide to join them.
And Ad very eloquently used the phrase "hinge of fate" …. this indeed is another possibility. But given the CCP's utterly vile human rights record right from … well their very beginnings … why are so many people in the West giving them any benefit of the doubt on this?
Dangerous information RL – if there is any confirmed (or sadly made up and widely distributed information) facts that this is a bioengineered virus that has been mistakenly released there'll be some potentially very nasty consequences over and above what we're experiencing at present.
Yeah I know, no such thing as bad intent. The CCP are living, walking angels who will save us all. /sarc
Yet all but one of my points are public domain knowledge, together they form a number of possible patterns if you care to look. And given the impossibility of getting reliable evidence, then neither you nor I can insist we are right.
But reflexively dismissing everything you think impossible as ‘tin foil hat’ territory is rather tired. Sometimes bad people really do bad shit, and given the CCP’s known track record of bad shit ….
Just pointless, impossible to verify, based on reckons, and a casus belli for violent racists everywhere.
Fair enough if you don't want to understand. I can get that. At the same time plenty of people here have no trouble leveling all manner of very direct attacks on Trump's administration, without anyone saying it's a "casus belli for violent racists everywhere".
🙄 Well, no. Because he's the one on the side of the racists. "Good people on both sides", remember that?
But if you can prove that covid-19 is a CCP bioweapon, put up or shut up. Otherwise you're just trying to make people more jumpy than they already are.
I was careful not to claim that it was designed or intended to be a bioweapon. Research labs work with all sorts of nasties for perfectly legit reasons, many of which you really don't want to unintentionally leak out. There is plenty of precedent for this sort of thing happening, so it's not an unreasonable presupposition.
Or hell it could have just been a zoonotic leap between species due to their medieval food systems the CCP has signally failed to tackle, it doesn’t really matter, in this context.
But my sense is that what happened after that is where the mystery deepens. At the very least the CCP are gaming their self-inflicted disaster into a propaganda win. Not only are too many people buying into it (because racist), but it disheartens many ordinary Chinese who loath the CCP and want an end to their enslavement.
Hey, how about you store your pointless senses somewhere productive for the duration, yeah?
You know, until actual reality stops being so terrifying to so many people. Speaking for myself, I've got a workplace set to do as much as possible from home, an elderly relative in self-iso, a sibling with a job fast-disappearing, and an immun-compromised friend off work in self-iso.
What, exactly, do your fucking spidey-senses do to improve the the emotional landscapes and personal threat assessments they and hundreds of thousands like them have to perform every fucking moment of the day?
But the scientists found that the SARS-CoV-2 backbone differed substantially from those of already known coronaviruses and mostly resembled related viruses found in bats and pangolins.
And that is the whole point of the 2015 paper in Nature, that they were using novel coronavirus's found in bats for research purposes. Back then they published one version that was the result of a recombination with the original SARs. Their US lab partner deemed the work too dangerous and destroyed everything at their end, and recommended the same in Wuhan.
But there was never any confirmation they did so, nor that they didn't carry on with the work on other novel bat virus's. So yes it's perfectly reasonable to think they may have been working with a virus that was completely unknown outside the Wuhan lab.
The existence of the 2015 paper is that it is incontrovertible proof they were working in this exact field at that time.
@McF
Everyone is dealing with a cascade of consequences right now. If you don't want to participate in this little thread right now I totally get it.
I just noticed that Francesca @ 1.2.4.1.3 also responded to you and linked to the same Nature article. The evidence that this is a bioengineered virus seems lacking. This doesn’t mean it didn’t escape from a lab, of course. The more scary implication, however, is that it jumped species (i.e. to human) in a completely natural way and that this can happen again in future.
Anyway, the answers to these and other interesting and pertinent questions won’t help us much with dealing with the present ‘aftermath’ of what happened, however it happened.
But I have a duty to, because pandemics don't just kill from the disease directly. They can also kill by the fear they create, and that fear is stoked and directed by people insisting on spreading rumours based on what they "sense".
Asians are already getting shit for this. I'm sure you focus on the middle "C" in "CCP" when talking about "self-inflicted", but not even you can be so tone-deaf to not notice how others might focus on the first "C"?
I'm sure you focus on the middle "C" in "CCP" when talking about "self-inflicted", but not even you can be so tone-deaf to not notice how others might focus on the first "C"?
Yes you are absolutely correct on the first part of that. Still it's hard not to notice that the second is the same card the CCP play everytime they yell 'racist' when they want to shut down any thing they don't like.
Dolt45 knew which buttons he was pushing when he went for "Chinese" virus rather than "communist" virus. If you were unaware such buttons existed in many nations, well, now you know.
So kindly come up with proof, or keep your senses to your damned self.
Do you want a long list of diseases that are named after places or countries. How about Lyme disease?
Lyme disease was first recognized in 1975 after researchers investigated why unusually large numbers of children were being diagnosed with juvenile rheumatoid arthritis in Lyme, Connecticut, and two neighboring towns.
And many other examples exist.
Trump started calling the "Chinese Virus" when various CCP mouthpieces repeatedly claimed that the virus was deliberated released into China by the USA to damage the Chinese economy. Pointed yes … racist only if you insist.
Then there was the State run media Xinhua hinting that China could use it's stranglehold on pharmaceutical supplies to "plunge the USA into the mighty sea of coronavirus" by withholding them.
I really don't understand how you could be, or why you would pretend to be, so oblivious to the cultural context in which you choose to make your statements.
So I will return to the question a few comments ago: how does your "sense" of how this pandemic started contribute to social stability in a globally-stressful time?
German measles, Zika virus (region in Uganda), Japanese encephalitis, Spanish flu (and is still called this on the WHO website), MERS (Middle Eastern Respitory Syndrome), Marburg virus (Germany again), West Nile virus, Ebola virus (name of a river in the Congo), Legionnaires Disease (from a conference in Philadelphia), Lhassa Fever, Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever, Nawalk virus (also known as norovirus).
Then there was Mad Cow disease named after my mother in law
So the idea that we must not name diseases after places, or groups of people for fear of offence or stigmatisation, really is 'snowflake pc gone mad'.
how does your "sense" of how this pandemic started contribute to social stability in a globally-stressful time?
Pretty much the same authoritarian reasoning that led the Wuhan administration and police to silence the first doctors who attempted to raise attention about the new disease they were seeing back in December.
This crisis is going to have political consequences sooner or later.
how does your "sense" of how this pandemic started contribute to social stability in a globally-stressful time?
Pretty much the same authoritarian reasoning that led the Wuhan administration and police to silence the first doctors who attempted to raise attention about the new disease they were seeing back in December.
That's not actually an answer to the question. What good is your "sensing" doing for anyone?
Someone recently wrote:
In the case of a global pandemic, the correct balance point is right at the authoritarian end of the scale. Just how it always has been.
According to that writer, "authoritarian" isn't even a criticism during a global pandemic.
This crisis is going to have political consequences sooner or later.
Duh.
Try later then, when people aren't shitting themselves. Nothing compells you to spread rumours so "political consequences" happen sooner, rather than later.
The correct response to reports from doctors about a new disease is to investigate and take prompt action, not to use crude intimidation to silence them.
The correct action when you already have a global pandemic is to take control as firmly as possible, not to dither for weeks for fear of causing offence to the Chinese.
If you can't tell the difference, there isn't much point is discussing this further.
As for 'what good this is'? Do you imagine the Chinese people are all docile fools who haven't asked all the same questions and not come to similar conclusions? Because at every turn you seem to be giving the CCP a free pass and ensuring our compliance; while everything orange man bad.
"Thus, the high-affinity binding of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein to human ACE2 is most likely the result of natural selection on a human or human-like ACE2 that permits another optimal binding solution to arise. This is strong evidence that SARS-CoV-2 is not the product of purposeful manipulation."
I was directed to this by a tweet from Dotcom
And if we're heading into conspiracy territory, there's this:
@bill – as has been happening in china for sometime and more often in recent times, when you shove that many people and other live species in close contact things have an increasing chance of shitting themselves.
Perhaps we should follow Ed's advice and make the world go vegetarian – when was the last time anyone caught an infectious disease from a turnip ?
COVID 19 is new. It hasn't been "happening in China for some time".
SARS and MERS are types of coronavirus that China and other places have a fair amount of experience with. But they don't have the characteristic whereby infectious individuals can be asymptomatic.
If you were merely meaning to suggest that China is a prime location for the emergence of various viruses, then yes – I suspect there's no argument from anyone on that front.
edit. Sorry. My bad. For whatever reason, I read the first word of your comment as “it”.
… when was the last time anyone caught an infectious disease from a turnip ?
It is simply less likely.
Humans have been known to get sick from viruses that live in seawater and who normally attach to sea bacteria for their breeding (can't remember the reference right now – but it has happened).
Viruses aren't that choosy and are opportunistic. Given the number of human targets and sufficient time you'll find that they will will test all pathways.
Very very much less likely, there's little commonalties between homo sapiens and the humble turnip that would attract a virus who has chosen vegetables as their host of choice….although looking around the world at the moment i do note the Donald is turning oranger on a daily basis.
Not deliberate imo Redlogix @ 1. Remember information was extremely fluid in those early days and no-one wanted to come across as scaremongering panic artists. Also at that point, anyone asking for all international travel to be stopped would have had their heads chopped off – metaphorically speaking.
Look what happened to the Chinese doctor who tried to warn the country many months ago they were in for a pandemic. She was publicly reprimanded by their government which must have had awful consequences for her and later died of the disease herself.
Intent scarcely matters anymore. Here is one thing I do know for certain, there is deep fury with CCP among the Chinese people themselves. And they in turn despair when they see the West swallow CCP 'alternative history' uncritically.
I've been asking much the same questions. When the initial news broke for me it was by way of banner headlines in The Guardian, and my immediate reaction was one of dismissal – the boy had cried wolf before.
But when China locked down cities…yeah, that's not something done lightly.
In my mind, and I this said around that time, NZ should have banned cruise ships and, if not entirely closed the borders, introduced strict measures at airports. (And not only for travellers arriving from China)
But Red. We live in a word where financial considerations outweigh all others. So this government (in my mind – as others – one that's essentially comprised of dullards who have merely been cunning enough to get their uncertain hands on levers of power) did sweet fuck all that might have "unduly" upset markets.
And so "here we are" in a shite state of affairs, and still the government is predicating responses on chrematistic factors .
We live in a word where financial considerations outweigh all others.
I understand that fully; after all crash stopping our economies is not a decision to be taken lightly, it will lead to loss and suffering. No govt should take that move lightly.
But WHO's role in this gave them perfect cover to hesitate for a crucial month.
crash stopping our economies is not a decision to be taken lightly
The irony being that the US is expecting a 14% contraction in the next quarter, which in context, is greater than what happened in post collapse Russia.
I'm thinking the masters of capital would have been well served to have hit the pause button for a short spell, although…they can always fall back on disaster capitalism – if we allow them the space and opportunity to.
If the rest of the world had stopped all international travel out of China at the start of Feb, instead of now, we would not be facing this crisis.
The NZ government did bar entry to people travelling from or through China at the start of February, pretty sure Australia did also. Took some bollocks because it was strongly criticised by the Chinese government at the time. Poor response from the WHO is probably down to the same problem as with every other UN organisation: corruption and influence-peddling.
True but when only Australia and NZ did this (and full credit to them) and most other countries did not, then our policy was rendered ineffective due to the obvious barn-sized backdoor.
Reductionist idiocy. If you had bothered to actually read any of what I was saying about gun control, instead of just reflexively projecting onto me, you would have noted me repeatedly acknowledging that the safety/liberty equation is a balance which varies according to context and circumstance.
In the case of a global pandemic, the correct balance point is right at the authoritarian end of the scale. Just how it always has been.
What if all the banks and loan agencies just decided to stop taking repayments for 6 months . ? No interest? They would lose no profit in the long run .
Whereas little old Kiwibank has an even tighter relationship:
Owned 49% by ACC and NZSuperfund, 51% by NZPost two large branches of corporate government are propping up another. When you look who is on those Boards and senior executives of them all, what you discover is a very tight clique of super-executive-bureaucrat hybrids who operate this country's major pools of public capital like one long uninterrupted secret conversation.
And for a country in extremis like we are going into, that's actually not a bad thing. Something like the analogy for making sausages.
The "quid pro quo" for bailing out the retail banks (no losses on their mortgage for property lending) is government financing their expenses with social credit rather than debt.
Am I right in thinking that the spread of this season's flu will be greatly reduced, even defeated, because of the social-dstancing/hand-washing etc, undertaken by New Zealanders in response to COVID 19?
I don't follow your argument, Ad. If flu doesn't spread, there will be no "overwhelming" of the hospitals. Surely, doctors have better things to do with their time, during an outbreak of COVID 19, than give flu jabs?
There is no reason to assume the common 'flu will be any better or se than any other year, but every year hospital beds get filled up with people with the 'flu.
Seriously don't to medical what-ifs at a time like this, and follow the advice.
"There is no reason to assume the common 'flu will be any better or se than any other year"
Isn't there?
I was wondering if the considerable changes being made to reduce the spread of COVID 19 might also reduce the spread of the flu. Seems logical, but you don't think so? That's okay. Curious how you are so anxious about even floating such an idea.
True, but you did wonder if people should bother. I think those that are good with getting vaccinated should make the effort, because we don't know how things will play out, so it's an erring on the side of caution thing. We need lots of that.
Hmmmm…I'm loathe to niggle you, weka, but I wrote,
"Should they bother? If my suppose is correct…"
"If" is the qualifier. If the new practices brought about to counter the spread of COVID 19 don't work in the case of the flu, then I don't challenge the need for the flu jab. If they do mean there's no or minimal spread of the flu, then my proposal has validity, perhaps. But not to be discussed here on TS, it seems. Back to the garden for me. I'm harvesting oyster mushrooms that I grew on straw in the underground wine cellar I dug; it's damp and dark in there and the fungi love it!
Robert I hope you have a look later on after the mushrooms, and can tell me about this – I have been putting some rinse water from the washing machine after I have used mild laundry detergent called woolwash, on my cherry plum tree. I know there are still traces of the detergent in the water as there is some bubbling from it. The tree has leaves that look a bit dull and droopy on the nearest side to the runoff of rinse water.
My question – could I be harming the old tree, some of which is dying off anyway, with this water? The other side is looking fine.
that's a bit black and white, I think you are missing the greys (we don't know, it will depend, there will still be some flu but we don't know how much).
It's seems clear that hygiene and distancing will have an impact on flu transmission.
It's not that it can't be discussed, it's that many people have a low tolerance at the moment for speculation about public health matters and this colours how they respond. Asking the question was good imo, because there will be others wondering the same thing. Ad's tetchiness probably didn't help that conversation go well, but people are managing their stress in lots of different ways.
You have a wine and fungi cellar! Did you do your own straw innoculation? I'm waiting for it to warm up a bit so I can plant out some seedlings.
If commenters go deeper with a question, a wondering if, and not just reaction to a previous thought, there will be a depth to the blog that tends to shallow out at times.
I don't think NZ is up to speed enough yet with social distancing and hand washing for it to have such a big effect, but I'm sure it will have some. The principle that Ad states is still sound, maybe flu gets reduced 50% from our actions, that's still a lot for the health system to deal with.
I expect some of that drop will be reversed by the high stress states people are in.
People who get flu now may be more susceptible to covid later due to being run down.
People who won't want a flu vaccine, that's fine imo but they need to take more care in not spreading that virus.
Afaik, vaccines are being prioritised atm for people that really need them.
btw, for people like myself who are used to managing our health without vaccines currently, we need to prepare for having a covid vaccine when it becomes available. I'll talk to my GP about that when the time comes (there's some complications for me), and we have no idea what the situation will be globally or in NZ by the time a vaccine becomes available, but there's a shift in parts of the culture that need to happen here. For many the vaccine is to protect others.
Hard core anti-vaxers are going to find their world view seriously challenged. Fortunately I've seen the anti-vaxer conspiracy theories around covid dropping off so maybe it won't be such an issue.
We don't yet have any community transmission, and we are in a process of learning new skills and getting better all the time. I think we're doing really well, and it's good to be aware of the things that aren't quite there yet.
The last week will have woken a lot of people up though.
I visited a friend last night and had a cup of tea and yarn. I washed my hands when I arrived, but didn't when I left (I did when I got home). We sat across the table from each other and I wasn't thinking about the tea cup I was drinking from. A lot of that will change once we have CV in the community locally. It takes time for people to learn how to do what in the right order, especially people in risk categories (both myself and my friend).
It is! I'm finding that different kinds of clothing help eg a loose shirt yesterday made it easier to scratch an itch on my face in various ways. I assume once we have community covid, that approach will mean more clothing washing too, but dependent upon probably exposure. I'm tending to think if it gets bad where I am I'll have to stay home mostly as the logistics of all that extra cleaning beyond handwashing are probably not possible for me to manage well.
Our son tells us spray the mail. Yes a great deal to think about.
Car door handles steering wheel and mirror. The list is never ending. Shoes off at the door and house slippers also makes sense when you see people spit.
A few people have been saying this, and I'm genuinely puzzled by the assertion. "We don't have community transmission" is quite a step beyond "we haven't detected community transmission".
There are (I don't know how many) school kids who were meant to be in isolation in Dunedin – school kids who were spotted in the city centre. Then there are those cruise ship passengers who visited Dunedin and elsewhere who have been diagnosed as having COVID 19. Throw in however many asymptomatic people were coming through those airports until a few days ago…
We can state that community transmission hasn't been detected. Whether or not there actually is community transmission is a different kettle of fish. But I guess we'll be in a position to say one way or the other with some confidence in a wee while.
It's just shorthand for "we don't have evidence of community transmission." I doubt weka is unaware of the difference.
It's also not unreasonable short-hand. Two weeks ago people were saying it was unlikely that we didn't already have community transmission, and yet here we are two weeks later and still no sign of community transmission. It will turn up, but there's no reason to assume it's turned up before we have evidence for it.
The precautionary principle is bollocks. It's a recipe for never doing anything, ever. We assign experts in public health and epidemiology to advise on this stuff for a reason.
Everyone getting flu jabs is one very simple low-cost thing everyone can do to reduce the burden on the health system in anticipation of the likely massive load coming up. On top of extra hand-washing and maintaining extra physical distance from others.
All of these actions have cumulative effects, each one reducing the burden on the health system a bit more.
Hand washing and physical distancing will reduce flu a bit, not eliminate it. More people getting flu jabs will reduce the flu season still further, not eliminate it. But if fewer people take up flu jabs, incorrectly thinking that extra hand-washing and extra distancing will protect them, then we're likely to have an extra-bad flu season on top of the expected COVID-19 problem.
If flu doesn't spread, there will be no "overwhelming" of the hospitals.
The only way we can be sure the flu won't spread is to make sure the bulk of the population is vaccinated against it. Even then it is not a 100% guarantee, but at least those who succumb are likely to be mild cases only. That frees up the time, energy and space for those at the medical front line to be able to concentrate on the corona virus cases.
"The only way we can be sure the flu won't spread is to make sure the bulk of the population is vaccinated against it"
Unfortunately the flu vaccine is not that effective. I think it's more a harm minimisation thing. Those that can get the vaccine and want to should. As with other vaccine issues, the small number of people that don't want to are less of an issue than those that do but don't access it for whatever reason (or don't care either way but will get vaccinated this time for all those reasons).
Unfortunately the flu vaccine is not that effective.
I agree, it doesn't seem to work that well with some people. However, since I started to have 'the jab' each year I have been free of flu.
When the Swine flu pandemic raged some years ago I caught it. However, according to my doctor, I didn't have to go to hospital because the general flu vaccine of the day had given me some protection from the severity of the symptoms.
It was a similar situation to the current virus although granted this one is even more serious.
So, in summing-up, the processes being put in place will work for COVID 19 but won't work for the flu?
Where is the flu virus right now? Here in NZ? Overseas? Yet to be generated? If it's overseas still, how might it get here, given the travel restrictions? Will it wait till those are lifted?
"So, in summing-up, the processes being put in place will work for COVID 19 but won't work for the flu?"
Not sure how you go that Robert. Handwashing and social distancing and social isolation will have an impact on flu transmission, but we don't know to what extent and it can't be relied upon enough to change public health messaging that people should get a flu vaccine to limit strain on the health system if we get a widespread covid outbreak.
There's always flu in NZ. It gets worse in winter (because of the environment?). Yes, we will get less new strains because of no more tourists, but again, we don't know yet how this will play out, hence erring on the side of caution.
It gets worse in winter (because of the environment?).
Because human immune responses get depressed when your core body temp is colder. Or where there are large changes in external environments.
Just about the first defense mechanism that is triggered against infections is that the fluid temps in the body are raised. Bacteria and viruses usually have limited working temp ranges that they can thrive in. It also makes the flow of anti-bodies and other defenses move faster and increases the rate of production of t-cells.
The faster the external environment is at tearing body heat away, the harder it is to activate immune systems. But often it seems like changes in environment cause issues. You get adapted to the climate (I really noticed that when in Singapore in 2018)
The measures being advised to reduce spread of covid-19 will probably also reduce the spread of flu, but it there's a vaccine for either you should get it. "Reduced" isn't the same as stopped, and if you end up catching one of them while sick with the other you could be in some serious shit.
I was wondering if that happens (getting two respiratory viruses at the same time). I've been assuming we don't because the immune system gets activated with the first one making a similar viral illness at the same time unlikely. But a bacterial infection might be more likely.
We all went to work from home this week. I'd have to go to work to get a company flu-shot… I have done it once when the usual checkup was too late into flu season.
I'd have to go to the doctor for my usual flu-shot… And I have to go there every 3 months for a prescription.
I'm not that happy about going anywhere where other people are at present.
Is there any way that I can get a remote prescription for the heart meds and a virtual flu vaccine? 🙂
Some anecdata – since working more from home and getting a regular flu shot. I haven't had flu for 5-10 years. Colds – yes, but fewer. Both vaccines and distancing work in their way. A relative is a nurse and hates winter because of the load of flu cases. If we can take some of that additional burden off our healthcare workers we owe it to them to try.
Gosh! If we all stay abed for long enough we may even halt excessive greenhouse gas emissions and thus eliminate risk of undesirable climate changes. Now that would be a useful unanticipated consequence!
I plan to go for a little drive every day. Dunno where but will work it out on the day. Have a wee stroll somewhere keeping two metres away from other wandering mortals. Perhaps the East Coast greeting as we pass. Mind you, that's dependent upon petrol still being available.
Now that I cannot take the dance classes, and I try to limit the number of times I mw the lawns; I've ben working in the garage/workshop "Tidying" up and finishing off working on my 1957 R50 BMW motorbike. (It has quite a history having been originally bought in Pretoria South Africa, ridden up through Africa, around the Continent, down through the Middle East – as you could in those days – to India. Shipped to Perth WA and across the Nullabour to Melbourne and then shipped to Wellington where the original owner had had enough, and sold it, and I bought it in the middle '60's and have owned it ever since.)
But just these past few days I have been doing some baking each afternoon. Date loaf, scones, ginger nuts, tomorrow I plan Loch Katrine Cake.
There should be no shortage of petrol over the coming months – I see the price has been dropping over the past week here. Down to around $1.95 after discount.
Yes it is a worry. I do my shopping early morning or late evening if I can now and that avoids the mad rush. Here the shelves are starting to be replenished and they have extra stackers in during the day as well so the supply side is being addressed. If only the demand side would settle down to normal we would be ok.
I don't normally use my credit card for shopping here, but they have pay wave so you avoid contacting the eftpos touch pad. I have now joined the younger set, and wave my way through the checkout. 🙂
The Govt says we should not close schools now as the old people looking after the children maybe at risk. Did the media ever ask the questions, how many families did it really involve. Here are some views
All high school students and even intermediate students can be at home (whats that as percentage of total school children). If the have younger siblings they can look after them while their parents are at work. Other work arounds for the young ones can be achieved (are we not the number 8 wire gen).
For those families where grandparents are the only caregivers, their children would be best off at home as they would more likely be contaminated at school.
I'm shocked at the in ability of our media (to ask probing Qs) and Gov to not think outside the box. They have not acted quick enough or decisively enough. Please, we need more and better restrictions…..
Social distancing is not happening at schools. We should also shut all pubs, clubs etc
Tick, Tick, Tick, Tick…………..
To the people who have already stated, we need to go fast and hard and use Korea models, well done.
One of the best articles I have seen recommended by a top physicist:
karl, you do know there is a plan re schools….schools will probably end up closing as we go through the different stages of the plan.
No school in the weekend, no school sports either and that's where we are at today, Saturday. We haven't got to Sunday yet and Monday is still two sleeps away.
The Government is poised to provide home internet and laptop or tablet devices for about 70,000 schoolchildren in the event that schools have to close due to coronavirus.
Yes Cinny, schools are indeed getting prepared to shut down, shit takes planning, and tomorrow there will be a new plan, and the next day a new plan etc … if people are that terrified of their kids being at school keep them home, my kids teachers are saying only half the kids are showing up anyway. Clean your hands, keep your distance, think for yourself.
Those not in the city be like…. stack the wood, dig over the garden, yes you can make dinner, come on kids let's clean the guttering, wipe out the cupboards, bike ride maybe?
Already making a list, going to call it part of the pandemic plan….kids can't argue with that 🙂
The tricky bit is, for some parents, if their kids have no school then the grandparents look after them. For some of those grandparents they are in the at risk category. And grandparents are usually ace when it comes to keeping kids off their devices 🙂
I am grandparent. I am not at risk. Give me grandchildren. They will sit in wheelbarrow – I will leg it. We will swim in estuary, there will be ice blocks, the day will pass. We will sleep well.
In 5 days, China went from detecting a couple of cases of unusual pneumonia to alerting WHO; closed food markets within a week and had shut down 15 cities within the month.
And a week after all of that (Jan 30), WHO declared an international public health emergency.
Was talking with my sister yesterday evening. She lives in Scotland. Schools are shut for all but the children of "front line workers" and teachers. Special provisions have been put in place for them so they can still attend classes. And "working from home" measures have been put in place for those who can (she can't).
Meanwhile, all sporting venues and gyms have been shut, which I only mention because I thought it quite amusing that golf courses were included 🙂
This morning's headlines from the UK were around closing pubs etc.
Did NZ Inc really go hard and fast????? Really, man I must be on another planet.
I think we as a Nation are too chillaxed, the media are soooo average. From the outside looking in, the Gov and the media seem to form a little love bubble……
Risk = Probability x Consequence
We KNOW, that other countries are exploding at the moment (feed that into your probability above).
If you really do a risk analysis, would you not shut down the country?
What would YOU DO?
Unknowns (effects probability…… there are tooooo many):
1. Incubation period outliers (eg 24 days)
2. The spread by people who have no visible symptoms
3. The length of time the virus lives on various substrates
4. The real effect on younger people health
5. The number of people infected in NZ that we dont know about
6. Potential terrorist or otherwise purposeful transmission
7. The real social network spreading by schools and other gatherings
One of the best articles I have seen recommended by a top physicist:
"If you really do a risk analysis, would you not shut down the country?"
You could, but you'd have to balance that with the damage done by a hard crash. If we have a pandemic that was killing 50% of the population I think that would have happened. The big issue here is to flatten the curve. Much of the high death rate is (probably) related to how fast and hard the virus hit and that was in countries that had different strategies to NZ.
edit, bearing in mind that this crisis will last a long time. This isn’t going to be over in a few months.
yeah, he was good. I suspect we will go to Level 3 soon, someone on RNZ said it's likely once we get confirmation of community transmission.
I think alot of the debate is around whether NZ had the potential to have no community transmission ever. I'm not sure that that was ever possibly. If we had shut our borders absolutely, so not letting kiwis back in, and then locking up people with symptoms and people they'd been in contact with, that's probably beyond what we can cope with economically, logistically and socially. Maybe politically too.
"We would be in a really good position economically etc"
Even if we had no cases of Covid-19, we would have no influence whatsoever on the global economy. And we'd hardly be saying "We are virus-free, come visit NZ!".
How do you know that the Government is not already receiving and considering this/his advice and integrating with all the other information it is receiving from all sorts of other sources and directions as well, not just medical? Absence of evidence (i.e. not doing exactly what you want and what Prof Baker is arguing) is not evidence of absence (i.e. the Government not taking on board everything but sticking its fingers in its ears).
"Shut down the country" comes at a huge cost, and not just an economic one. There's also the social cost of forcing isolation on people, and there's the political cost of depriving your voters of their liberty, which you won't do without a really fucking good reason if you want them to vote for you again.
So, what would have been gained from imposing martial law and depriving people of their liberty a few weeks ago? There isn't any keeping the virus out, there's only slowing it down so it doesn't overwhelm the health system, so it's not like we'd be spared the epidemic by such drastic measures. Where's the benefit?
As to the cost, look at the economic damage that's going to be wreaked just by the restrictions that have already been imposed. If those restrictions had been imposed a month earlier, we'd already have trashed the economy by now, for the sake of having a lower number of cases than the 50-odd we have now. Any government that thought that was a good cost/benefit ratio would be unfit to govern. Which is why the government is advised by experts in public health and epidemiology, rather than reckons from people on the Internet.
Just asking…how long has Ardern had the photo of Savage smiling paternally down over her left shoulder?
Since the monumental PR blunder of Back Then when they launched the dismal failure that was Kiwibuld and tried to pass off Kiwibuild as some modern day Savage inspired State Housing plan… you'd think they'd steer clear of having Our Leader channeling Savage.
It's wrong. And it undermines the Government's credibility.
Ardern and her government haven't earned the right yet.
Perhaps more of us should listen to the interview found over on The Daily Blog between Bryan Bruce and Susan St John.
The flag was there too. What's that about? I haven't seen any complaints about the colour of the clothes she was wearing and how she did her har. No doubt someone has complained. A headscarf would have been good for a laugh.
The state of the Nation speech took place in the Prime Minister's office Rosemary.
Jacinda Ardern is entitled to hang a picture of whoever she likes in her own office. The reason we have never seen it before is because it is very unusual for a PM to make a speech from the Office of the Prime Minister. It's normally off limits to members of the public and the media.
But these are extraordinary times requiring extraordinary measures.
The writer appears to have done much analysis of how other countries have/are handling the situation. Theres some interesting content there.
No doubt said piece is doing the rounds as the writer is a creator of viral applications, has a billion dollar company and the topical material has all the key words search engines would index. $$$$$$$
Anyways…. 🙂 This is how I see it… if communication is engaged then hopefully the virus won't get a grip here. Government, media, word of mouth, social media etc correctly informing people on what to do, keeping people updated and aware (rather than stressed and terrified – people can make bad choices when they are freaking out). Our government is doing a fantastic job making sure people are accurately informed.
China used an enormous ammount of military muscle to ensure people were doing as they were told, personally I found it a bit disturbing, but that's how China rolls. How about those Chinese celeb's feel good video to tone down the aspect of military force re the virus? Wowzers!
Am also rather skeptical of the numbers China has reported. Which makes me mindful of any virus anlaysis re Chinese data.
This particular link https://covid19.govt.nz/help-and-advice/resources/ has allowed me to print out a stack of posters and plaster them all over our office window this morning. I encourage any one with a business or office with high foot traffic to do the same.
China used an enormous ammount of military muscle to ensure people were doing as they were told, personally I found it a bit disturbing, but that's how China rolls.
When we go into phase 3, I suspect that we start using the police and the military to enforce as well.
There are always dickheads who really couldn't give a rats arse about others and who will recklessly endanger others. Personally I'd favour judge making orders, a prompt island quarantine for them with an armed guard detachment and kill orders. They can appeal after the emergency has diminished.
It is a far better choice than throwing them into an all-ready overcrowded prison system. I vaguely remember that all of that was all covered in the available civil emergency orders.
Incidentally, they should be looking to start releasing low risk and remand prisoners (if they haven't already). Reducing crowding in the prison system is the only way that they will suppress potential outbreaks there.
I read a chunk of that the other day. I think he's missing some important parts, and I'd like to see some informed critique of his position. He's not an epidemiologist nor a pandemic management expert.
I do agree that people need to be staying home now as much as possible. I've been more careful for the past fortnight.
Michael Baker Prof of Public Health is on to it in terms of suggesting going harder than what the current Govt is doing. Just to support Michael:
Take for example the Flights landed into NZ at the airport on 18th March. This is just the tip of the iceberg (and this is just a sample of one airport in NZ)
If you take into consideration the list of unknowns I mentioned above (see post 9), like some people not having symptoms then factor it into the below……your ability to contact trace is shot to hell… Now include all the other international airports in NZ and the flights that came over the last few months……
Risk = Probability X Consequence
The flight information below is provided to Auckland Airport by the airlines,
Please provide a link to the flight information from which you got that abbreviated sample as it is too long and does not contain pertinent info. I will delete or drastically shorten the list shortly but I’m happy to put in a link if you can provide one.
… not to mention the multiple repeats of the same flight, such as 6 repeats of QF153 and 4 of NZ124 …
Meanwhile, since the airport is the biggest source of transport noise at my place, I’m definitely lovin’ the reduced number of flights over the past week or two.
Thanks, I see your point, was just trying to hit home the point there were a lot of flights into NZ and we wont be able to trace all the social interactions.
It isn't that relevant as information unless you know the numbers of passengers and staff.
From what I understand, they’re only really letting NZ passport holders and the immediate family in (and being excessively zealous at that according to one report this morning (that I can’t find)).
Most of the aircraft are now coming in with limited passengers and, I suspect, mostly to pick up outgoing passengers from our tourists trapped here.
Re the flights used by people in NZ who have now been confirmed or are suspected of having the virus, the flight information in this list is probably far more relevant than the lists of overall flights in and out of certain airports on certain dates. .
The travel information in that list is just the base information being made public.
The highly sophisticated flight information systems (for both international and domestic flights) available to/used by airlines are capable of providing information for many other uses/agencies, including those of Interpol for example.  
I think that these systems are probably being used to identify flights, contact (transit, origin) points, dates, passenger lists etc relevant to persons who are confirmed or suspected of having coronavirus, not only in those in NZ but also those in other countries.
I will cut short your list (sorry) and replace with your link.
Next time, please think of the readers of TS who have to scroll through all of that space with next to useless info, particularly when one simple link will suffice.
Does anybody know if they will try installing public sanitising or hygiene stations in public, e.g. at the Entrances and Exits of supermarkets? The footwear cleaning hygiene stations in the Waitakere Ranges, for example, were only moderately successful because of compliance issues (i.e. people not using them or not using them correctly). However, these were not aimed at personal health and safety and there was control or close supervision.
Until yesterday the New World in my small Wairarapa town had a wipe dispenser at the door. It has been empty several times and was missing today. I asked a staff member who said people had been pulling out strings of them and they can't get any more. There's still a small sanitiser station at the main entrance, often hidden behind a raffle table and hard to spot as it's the same colour as the doorway.
I feel sorry for the frontline staff having to watch their efforts to help abused like this, they have been unfailingly cheerful patient heroes since this upheaval began.
I've been amazed at staff being so patient and helpful in various stores I've been dealing with. It's actually makes me feel better about how we're going to manage.
There are overseas distillers starting to make alcohol for hand sanitisers and making the sanitisers themselves. I've heard rumours of this in NZ too.
Bay of Plenty iwi Te Whānau-ā-Apanui closing borders to outsiders
Iwi leader Rawiri Waititi announced no one outside of the about 1000 residents would be allowed to enter the territory from midnight March 25 for two months.
I applaud the BOP iwi Te Whanau-a- Apanui closing borders to outsiders.
In early February, if our leaders had “vision “ they would have closed NZs island borders and we could have lived fairly normal lives – without tourism!
But “In February it would have seemed unimaginable to close NZ borders to the world. “ according to our PM.
Considering that most nz c19 cases are returning nz citizens shitting the boarders earlier wouldnt have much difference. Unless you're suggesting we dont let kiwis come home
we should have put them in isolation at the airport. Have the military set up camps, 14 days, two consecutive tests – and if these are negative you may be released into the larger public.
Having these guys come home and may or may not self isolate was the dumbest fucking thing ever.
but i have come to the conclusion that the more education people have the less they are able to think logically.
How many people have come into the country since the outbreak started in China? And all the people they had close contact with? I can't see how logistically it would have been possible to quarantine them all.
it was totally imaginable to us here in tourist land also, as no tourists arrived.
The few stragglers that came to freedom camp and the few boats – we could have done without them.
The saddest thing is, that there a people that desperatly want to stay home, take the kids out of school and just stay the fuck at home until this passes but they can't.
Has Labour cancelled the 12 week standdown for people who can't cope anymore and want to stay home and thus risk being fired?
the stand down for getting the dole was removed across the board a few weeks ago. You can look at the WINZ site to see if there are conditions on that.
good, if that women comes back in for a coffee i will let her know that. Cause she wants to stay home, she wants to take her kids out of school and is afraid that we ill get fired if she does so, and if that happens that she will be stood down by Winz. The only announcment of that that i saw was a few weeks ago, and i linked to the article where the PM stated that 'She was in principe for it".
short version of what I posted below: mandatory stand down for all benefits is lifted until Nov. Stand down for leaving a job or getting fired is still in place, but I would expect there to be more leeway at the moment.
Most weekly benefits have a stand-down. This is a period of time where you can’t get any money from us. It’s usually 1 or 2 weeks after your application is approved.
The Government has decided to remove stand-downs as part of its response to COVID-19. If you’re eligible for a benefit between 23 March 2020 and 23 November 2020, you won’t have a stand-down.
You’ll start getting your payments the week after your application is approved. This is because we pay you for the week that’s just been. This is called arrears. We’ll let you know when this happens.
We’ll also talk with you about ways we may be able to help until you get your first benefit payment.
About 3/4 way down the page if you open all the thingies first.
Sorry, that doesn't answer your question. There's this,
Left your job voluntarily or fired for misconduct
If you’ve left your job without a good reason or have been fired for misconduct, you may need to wait up to 13 weeks before your payments start.
If this happens, there are a number of ways we may still be able to help.
Please contact us to talk about your situation.
There's quite a bit of discussion on twitter amongst beneficiaries and advocates about how to interpret policy now. There are lots of good reasons for leaving a job now that wouldn't have applied before. Also hearing various reports about how well WINZ is treating people. If someone is in this situation I'd check the policy wording then the legislation. If they're giving 13 week stand downs to people there will be support to go hard out on that, but also there still needs to be a good reason.
there is no need for a discussion about what that means. It states quite clearly that if you cause your loss of job or you leave your job because you can't cope anymore, you get a stand down period of 13 weeks,.
you can discuss this until the end of the day and feel like you are changing things.
as of now, people who would like to take their kids out of kindy and stay at home however will have a stand down period of 13weeks if they quit their job, and that is not the fault of Winz, but the current government who had done nothing to change the nature of Winz. The drones at Winz don't make the rules, the follow the orders that come down form the Ministry of Social Welfare.
But yeah, chatting on twitter is gonna change things. Sure sure.
You literally have no idea what you are talking about Sabine. There's a long history of changes at WINZ because of the mahi that beneficiaries and advocates do. Not everyone can do that, but your personal beliefs about what is not achievable won't stop other people getting on with it.
13 week stand downs are shit. I remember when they came in, and they're absolutlely a tool of neoliberalism to force a low wage workforce to keep the economy going. They're also part of bludger meme culture. They should have been removed a long time ago.
Things is, removing them entirely and suddenly as a stand alone policy during the start of a global emergency where people are shit scared is a recipe for chaos. One thing that would happen is that businesses that are already under huge pressure would suddenly find themselves short of workers. I'm thinking about work that is essential to society continuing to function that upholds wellbeing personal and collective.
Changing the criteria around them makes sense, and looking at the policy and law would be a way to understand how to do that. But hey, why bother when one can sit on the internet moaning about pretty much everything. I really hope people don't ask you about this because telling people that Labour are shit and that people can't do anything about their situation strikes me as the opposite of what is needed right now.
i have as many and as much of an idea as to what to do with Winz then you do.
But, this thirteen week stand down period is government sanctioned, ordered, and implemented. And thus it is the current governments orders, aka the Labour/Green/NZfirst.
And this current government by emergency degree even could have abolished it so that people who can not cope anymore, who are afraid, who would like to stay at home with their children, could leave their jobs and do so.
In fact it would be the single smartest thing the Government could do now is to offer people unemployment benefits on demand if they only stay at home.
I don't know what type of news you get Weka, mine currently come from France, Italy, Germany, Poland, Holland and Belgium. All places where i have friends and family. I speak the languages, i can listen to their news, and you and this government have no fucking idea of the shit show that is gonna come. full stop.
You, I, Bill and all of us should stay at home, the borders should have been closed weeks ago, NZ residence should have been cited home weeks ago, our hospitals should have been put on Red fucking Alert weeks ago. And cruise ships should have been blocked from docking at least since January.
And we go to work, because this fucking useless government, this bullshit coalition of the most useless people i have ever come across in government is doing nothing to allow people to stay the fuck at home.
Its not only that the hospitals will be over run to the point that if you have a heart attack or a broken bone or a emergency cesarian you can't because there is no bed available, the nurses and doctors themselves are sick and dying – 14 doctors in Italy died alone. In the East of France nurses and doctors will die and the nurses and doctors know this.
This virus kills Weka. All ages. It kills.
So you can chat on twitter and so on and so forth in the hope of changing something some time, but this is different.
Bill is right when he said that all the Government has to do is send a weekly check to everyone for then next 12 odd weeks. It would allow many people to quit their jobs, take their kids out of school and stay the fuck at home.
this video under when you click on the link below is from italy for a Belgium TV, its in french, but i think you can understand it anyways.
Good employers are already telling their staff to stay home and allowing them to work from home or have special leave and so on. Shit employers are not.
I remember 9/11 and those workers who had previously left the building dying because they went back in as their shitty employers wouldn't pay them if they didn't.
Last thing we need right now is the coercive power of the state supporting those employers and people having to argue with WINZ that they had good cause to leave. People aren't stupid they still need money etc but there are many who have children with lung conditions or are vulnerable themselves and so on. They should have absolute freedom to choose. Have more faith in your fellow citizen – people won't just abandon their employment on a whim. FFS.
I'm not sure DoS. If the advice is 'leave your job if you want to and go on the dole', then there will be people who will do that because we are all afraid. Some won't be able to afford to but some will.
Obviously there will be people who need to and should be able to, hence my question about how WINZ are interpreting the policy atm.
I want my elderly parents' homehelp to stay in place. What's going to happen to them if their worker leaves her job this week? There will be a myriad of examples where conflicting needs and the public health good will clash. I'm more interested in looking at how that whole system works and needs to remain functional, rather than taking single parts of the system and hacking them out of panic.
(imo this is what the government is doing, looking at a range of intersecting systems and figuring out how to manage them all the best, understanding that none of them will be ideal).
If you can see a way to suddenly remove the 13 week stand down and keep working happening that is essential, I’d be interested. What you appear to be saying is we should rely solely on trusting people. I’m much more trust in god and tie up your camel.
It’s not a whim that will have more people leaving their jobs, it’s understandable fear, and some of that fear is not grounded in reality.
I don't think the 13 week standown will stop anyone leaving their job through fear. It will just make it more difficult for them to manage after leaving.
Some people go to work despite their anxiety – from what I'm seeing they are already seeing their anxiety ramping up. State coercion isn't needed right now. Compassion and understanding is, support by the employers to reduce their anxiety, knowing that if it all gets too much they will be supported may be more helpful in the long run.
It shouldn't be a competition between anxieties – staying at work and getting sick vs finishing work and having no income for 13 weeks.
In my review removing that 13 week stand-down worry should be a help not a hindrance – one less thing to worry about. It is only an exertion of state power to support the employer class after all.
In the 1918 pandemic there were doctors who worked at the frontline and died. Then there were doctors who stayed away and did not and had thriving businesses after the pandemic was over.
Already some doctors are busier than they should be because others have limited their services/hours, etc.
Will the coercive power of the state be applied to doctors who withdraw their services or chemists who may do so. Will they get 13 weeks of no state subsidies?
Is coerciveness to be only applied to the people who can least afford to have the choices to withdraw their labour that the well-off have. The fact that many of those caring are Maori and Polynesian and are at greatest risk means we should think about this a little more carefully.
Hi, I totally respect peoples opinions about not going as hard as China, but would respectfully disagree.
Being too kind can be cruel as well. It reminds me of the lyrics…..by the FUGEES
Strumming my pain with his fingers
Singing my life with his words
Killing me softly with his song
Killing me softly with his song
Telling my whole life with his words
Killing me softly with his song
Remember the WHO advising that it was wrong to close boarders…..
You can take down entire countries with the wrong kind of kindness mindset, tough love maybe is what is needed. I agree with the way China has gone after the problem to a degree (I didnt see mass shootings or riots….). What do you think people on the standard, what would you do.
Check out whats happening in Europe and compare to China……. maybe NZ Inc is being too nice
US: Borders with Mexico and Canada will be closed to most traffic; New York State ordered non-essential businesses to shut, a day after a similar move by California
Spain: The government warned that army patrols would detain people outside without good reason
Bavaria: Germany's second most populous state became the first state in impose a lockdown
France: Police said patrols at Paris railway stations had been reinforced to stop people going on trips for the weekend
Indonesia: A state of emergency will be in force in the capital Jakarta from Monday – bars, cinemas and many other businesses will be shut down.
The leadership in the USA and the UK has been seriously lacking. By any reasonable measure, they are significantly worse off.
I do understand your concerns, we're all worried – but the comparisons you're making aren't very helpful.
As for China, we simply don't know what has happened there because they have no free media. Of course we haven't seen trouble – who would be showing us? Western journos aren't wandering freely around Wuhan, any more than they can report the oppression of the Uyghurs.
there media in China is no more free nor less then ours.
they have state controllers we have advertiser controllers.
China has been excellent about this. The US however is shitshow that is created on purpose by the Shitter in Chief who would like to profit of a deadly crisis.
they have state controllers we have advertiser controllers.
And vested interests ready to spoon feed compliant stenographers – the RussiaGate b/s (charges against the IRA dropped btw), the Uyghur myth, the nonsense about Venezuela, Syria, Nicaragua, Iran…the list extends.
University of Queensland Centre for Clinical Research director Professor David Paterson told news.com.au today they have seen two drugs used to treat other conditions wipe out the virus in test tubes.
Apparently, developing 'a vaccine' isn't really difficult. Getting one that works in the human body, and doesn't cause unforeseen complications (including magnifying the effects of a virus in the event of infection) – not so easy.
"The increase in beneficiary payments makes economic sense for a number of reasons. First, those on low incomes are more likely to spend the increase, thus keeping consumption up. Second, in"
Less traffic, nearby gym and sports field quiet and no smoke from the sports bar this winter, tramping tracks and huts uncluttered, people planting veges, an end to workplace dysfunction, almost no suburban truck traffic on my AK route this morning. Big loss of value from retirement savings. Sink more piss and the wife smiles. Work from home in the garage with door open onto the garden. More likely to be dead soon – "old man's friend" and hopefully no big event funeral. I savour it all the more now, but anguish for the young – bless and keep them !!!!
Awww, isn't that sweet? Kaikoura residents unite to return confused baby birds to the sea
Once they have crash-landed the birds are unable to walk on land, or move, and often get hit by vehicles, or eaten by roaming cats or dogs.
“I go out half an hour after dark. Then I go out every hour until half past midnight, it takes them half an hour to get down from the mountains,” said Painting, who keeps animal boxes in her taxi to hold the chicks, which are fluffy, heavy and grey.
“If there’s a lot of birds coming down I can go all night, if I have passengers they’ll help me too.”
On an average night during fledgling season, which runs through March and April, between 10 and 20 birds will be found on local Kaikoura roads, especially those bordering the coast.
Painting said on her busiest night more than 200 birds were rescued, with volunteers working through till dawn.
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This morning the sky was bright.The birds, in their usual joyous bliss. Nature doesn’t seem to feel the heat of what might angst humans.Their calls are clear and beautiful.Just some random thoughts:MāoriPaul Goldsmith has announced his government will roll back the judiciary’s rulings on Māori Customary Marine Title, which recognises ...
In 2003, the Court of Appeal delivered its decision in Ngati Apa v Attorney-General, ruling that Māori customary title over the foreshore and seabed had not been universally extinguished, and that the Māori Land Court could determine claims and confirm title if the facts supported it. This kicked off the ...
Earlier this week at Parliament, Labour leader Chris Hipkins was applauded for saying that the response to the final report of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in Care had to be “bigger than politics.” True, but the fine words, apologies and “we hear you” messages will soon ring ...
TL;DR: In news breaking this morning:The Ministry of Education is cutting $2 billion from its school building programme so the National-ACT-NZ First Coalition Government has enough money to deliver tax cuts; The Government has quietly lowered its child poverty reduction targets to make them easier to achieve;Te Whatu Ora-Health NZ’s ...
Kia ora. These are some stories that caught our eye this week – as always, feel free to share yours in the comments. Our header image this week (via Eke Panuku) shows the planned upgrade for the Karanga Plaza Tidal Swimming Steps. The week in Greater Auckland On ...
1. What's not to love about the way the Harris campaign is turning things around?a. Nothingb. Love all of itc. God what a reliefd. Not that it will be by any means easye. All of the above 2. Documents released by the Ministry of Health show Associate Health Minister Casey ...
Trust in me in all you doHave the faith I have in youLove will see us through, if only you trust in meWhy don't you, you trust me?In a week that saw the release of the 3,000 page Abuse in Care report Christopher Luxon was being asked about Boot Camps. ...
TL;DR: The podcast above of the weekly ‘hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers last night features co-hosts and talking about the Royal Commission Inquiry into Abuse in Carereport released this week, and with:The Kākā’s climate correspondent on a UN push to not recognise carbon offset markets and ...
TL;DR: As of 6:00 am on Friday, July 26, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:Transport: Simeon Brown announced$802.9 million in funding for 18 new trains on the Wairarapa and Manawatū rail lines, which ...
The northern expressway extension from Warkworth to Whangarei is likely to require radical changes to legislation if it is going to be built within the foreseeable future. The Government’s powers to purchase land, the planning process and current restrictions on road tolling are all going to need to be changed ...
Text within this block will maintain its original spacing when publishedFirst they came for the doctors But I was confused by the numbers and costs So I didn't speak up Then they came for our police and nurses And I didn't think we could afford those costs anyway So I ...
Photo by Joshua J. Cotten on UnsplashWe’re back again after our mid-winter break. We’re still with the ‘new’ day of the week (Thursday rather than Friday) when we have our ‘hoon’ webinar with paying subscribers to The Kākā for an hour at 5 pm.Jump on this link on YouTube Livestream ...
Notes: This is a free article. Abuse in Care themes are mentioned. Video is at the bottom.BackgroundYesterday’s report into Abuse in Care revealed that at least 1 in 3 of all who went through state and faith based care were abused - often horrifically. At least, because not all survivors ...
Luxon speaks in Parliament yesterday about the Abuse in Care report. Photo: Hagen Hopkins/Getty ImagesTL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy today are:PM Christopher Luxon said yesterday in tabling the Abuse in Carereport in Parliament he wanted to ‘do the ...
About a decade ago I worked with a bloke called Steve. He was the grizzled veteran coder, a few years older than me, who knew where the bodies were buried - code wise. Despite his best efforts to be approachable and friendly he could be kind of gruff, through to ...
Some of the recent announcements from the government have reminded us of posts we’ve written in the past. Here’s one from early 2020. There were plenty of reactions to the government’s infrastructure announcement a few weeks ago which saw them fund a bunch of big roading projects. One of ...
TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 7:00 am on Thursday, July 25 are:News: Why Electric Kiwi is closing to new customers - and why it matters RNZ’s Susan EdmundsScoop: Government drops ...
Hi,I felt a small wet tongue snaking through one of the holes in my Crocs. It explored my big toe, darting down one side, then the other. “He’s looking for some toe cheese,” said the woman next to me, words that still haunt me to this day.Growing up in New ...
Yesterday I happily quoted the Prime Minister without fact-checking him and sure enough, it turns out his numbers were all to hell. It’s not four kg of Royal Commission report, it’s fourteen.My friend and one-time colleague-in-comms Hazel Phillips gently alerted me to my error almost as soon as I’d hit ...
TL;DR: As of 6:00 am on Thursday, July 25, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day were:The Abuse in Care Royal Commission of Inquirypublished its final report yesterday.PM Christopher Luxon and The Minister responsible for ...
The Official Information Act has always been a battle between requesters seeking information, and governments seeking to control it. Information is power, so Ministers and government agencies want to manage what is released and when, for their own convenience, and legality and democracy be damned. Their most recent tactic for ...
TL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy today are:Transport and Energy Minister Simeon Brown is accelerating plans to spend at least $10 billion through Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) to extend State Highway One as a four-lane ‘Expressway’ from Warkworth to Whangarei ...
I live my life (woo-ooh-ooh)With no control in my destinyYea-yeah, yea-yeah (woo-ooh-ooh)I can bleed when I want to bleedSo come on, come on (woo-ooh-ooh)You can bleed when you want to bleedYea-yeah, come on (woo-ooh-ooh)Everybody bleed when they want to bleedCome on and bleedGovernments face tough challenges. Selling unpopular decisions to ...
Please note:To skip directly to the- parliamentary footage in the video, scroll to 1:21 To skip to audio please click on the headphone iconon the left hand side of the screenThis video / audio section is under development. ...
Given the crackdown on wasteful government spending, it behooves me to point to a high profile example of spending by the Luxon government that looks like a big, fat waste of time and money. I’m talking about the deployment of NZDF personnel to support the US-led coalition in the Red ...
TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 7:40 am on Wednesday, July 24 are:Deep Dive: Chipping away at the housing crisis, including my comments RNZ/Newsroom’s The DetailNews: Government softens on asset sales, ...
As I reported about the city centre, Auckland’s rail network is also going through a difficult and disruptive period which is rapidly approaching a culmination, this will result in a significant upgrade to the whole network. Hallelujah. Also like the city centre this is an upgrade predicated on the City ...
Today, a 4 kilogram report will be delivered to Parliament. We know this is what the report of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in State and Faith-based Care weighs, because our Prime Minister told us so.Some reporter had blindsided him by asking a question about something done by ...
TL;DR: As of 7:00 am on Wednesday, July 24, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:Beehive:Transport Minister Simeon Brownannounced plans to use PPPs to fund, build and run a four-lane expressway between Auckland ...
NewstalkZB host Mike Hosking, who can usually be relied on to give Prime Minister Christopher Luxon an easy run, did not do so yesterday when he interviewed him about the HealthNZ deficit. Luxon is trying to use a deficit reported last year by HealthNZ as yet another example of the ...
Back in January a StatsNZ employee gave a speech at Rātana on behalf of tangata whenua in which he insulted and criticised the government. The speech clearly violated the principle of a neutral public service, and StatsNZ started an investigation. Part of that was getting an external consultant to examine ...
Renting for life: Shared ownership initiatives are unlikely to slow the slide in home ownership by much. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy today are:A Deloittereport for Westpac has projected Aotearoa’s home-ownership rate will ...
You're broken down and tiredOf living life on a merry go roundAnd you can't find the fighterBut I see it in you so we gonna walk it outAnd move mountainsWe gonna walk it outAnd move mountainsAnd I'll rise upI'll rise like the dayI'll rise upI'll rise unafraidI'll rise upAnd I'll ...
There’s been a change in Myers Park. Down the steps from St. Kevin’s Arcade, past the grassy slopes, the children’s playground, the benches and that goat statue, there has been a transformation. The underpass for Mayoral Drive has gone from a barren, grey, concrete tunnel, to a place that thrums ...
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections Global society may have finally slammed on the brakes for climate-warming pollution released by human fossil fuel combustion. According to the Carbon Monitor Project, the total global climate pollution released between February and May 2024 declined slightly from the amount released during the same ...
TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 7:00 am on Tuesday, July 23 are:Deep Dive: Penlink: where tolling rhetoric meets reality BusinessDesk-$$$’sOliver LewisScoop:Te Pūkenga plans for regional polytechs leak out ...
TL;DR: As of 6:00 am on Tuesday, July 23, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:Health: Shane Reti announcedthe Board of Te Whatu Ora-Health New Zealand was being replaced with Commissioner Lester Levy ...
Health NZ warned the Government at the end of March that it was running over Budget. But the reasons it gave were very different to those offered by the Prime Minister yesterday. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon blamed the “botched merger” of the 20 District Health Boards (DHBs) to create Health ...
Long ReadKey Summary: Although National increased the health budget by $1.4 billion in May, they used an old funding model to project health system costs, and never bothered to update their pre-election numbers. They were told during the Health Select Committees earlier in the year their budget amount was deficient, ...
As a momentous, historic weekend in US politics unfolded, analysts and commentators grasped for precedents and comparisons to help explain the significance and power of the choice Joe Biden had made. The 46th president had swept the Democratic party’s primaries but just over 100 days from the election had chosen ...
TL;DR: I’m casting around for new ideas and ways of thinking about Aotearoa’s political economy to find a few solutions to our cascading and self-reinforcing housing, poverty and climate crises.Associate Professor runs an online masters degree in the economics of sustainability at Torrens University in Australia and is organising ...
The Finance and Expenditure Committee has reported back on National's Local Government (Water Services Preliminary Arrangements) Bill. The bill sets up water for privatisation, and was introduced under urgency, then rammed through select committee with no time even for local councils to make a proper submission. Naturally, national's select committee ...
Some years ago, I bought a book at Dunedin’s Regent Booksale for $1.50. As one does. Vandrad the Viking (1898), by J. Storer Clouston, is an obscure book these days – I cannot find a proper online review – but soon it was sitting on my shelf, gathering dust alongside ...
History is not on the side of the centre-left, when Democratic presidents fall behind in the polls and choose not to run for re-election. On both previous occasions in the past 75 years (Harry Truman in 1952, Lyndon Johnson in 1968) the Democrats proceeded to then lose the White House ...
This is a free articleCoverageThis morning, US President Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from the Presidential race. And that is genuinely newsworthy. Thanks for your service, President Biden, and all the best to you and yours.However, the media in New Zealand, particularly the 1News nightly bulletin, has been breathlessly covering ...
A homeless person’s camp beside a blocked-off slipped damage walkway in Freeman’s Bay: we are chasing our tail on our worsening and inter-related housing, poverty and climate crises. Photo: Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy ...
What has happened to it all?Crazy, some'd sayWhere is the life that I recognise?(Gone away)But I won't cry for yesterdayThere's an ordinary worldSomehow I have to findAnd as I try to make my wayTo the ordinary worldYesterday morning began as many others - what to write about today? I began ...
TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 7:00 am on Monday, July 22 are:Today’s Must Read: Father and son live in a tent, and have done for four years, in a million ...
TL;DR: As of 7:00 am on Monday, July 22, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:US President Joe Biden announced via X this morning he would not stand for a second term.Multinational professional services firm ...
A listing of 32 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, July 14, 2024 thru Sat, July 20, 2024. Story of the week As reflected by preponderance of coverage, our Story of the Week is Project 2025. Until now traveling ...
This weekend, a friend pointed out someone who said they’d like to read my posts, but didn’t want to pay. And my first reaction was sympathy.I’ve already told folks that if they can’t comfortably subscribe, and would like to read, I’d be happy to offer free subscriptions. I don’t want ...
National: The Party of ‘Law and Order’ IntroductionThis weekend, the Government formally kicked off one of their flagship policy programs: a military style boot camp that New Zealand has experimented with over the past 50 years. Cartoon credit: Guy BodyIt’s very popular with the National Party’s Law and Orderimage, ...
Day one of the solo leg of my long journey home begins with my favourite sound: footfalls in an empty street. 5.00 am and it’s already light and already too warm, almost.If I can make the train that leaves Budapest later this hour I could be in Belgrade by nightfall; ...
Do you remember Y2K, the threat that hung over humanity in the closing days of the twentieth century? Horror scenarios of planes falling from the sky, electronic payments failing and ATMs refusing to dispense cash. As for your VCR following instructions and recording your favourite show - forget about it.All ...
Climate Change Minister Simon Watts being questioned by The Kākā’s Bernard Hickey.TL;DR: My top six things to note around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the week to July 20 were:1. A strategy that fails Zero Carbon Act & Paris targetsThe National-ACT-NZ First Coalition Government finally unveiled ...
Summary:As New Zealand loses at least 12 leaders in the public service space of health, climate, and pharmaceuticals, this month alone, directly in response to the Government’s policies and budget choices, what lies ahead may be darker than it appears. Tui examines some of those departures and draws a long ...
The Minister of Housing’s ambition is to reduce markedly the ratio of house prices to household incomes. If his strategy works it would transform the housing market, dramatically changing the prospects of housing as an investment.Leaving aside the Minister’s metaphor of ‘flooding the market’ I do not see how the ...
As previously noted, my historical fantasy piece, set in the fifth-century Mediterranean, was accepted for a Pirate Horror anthology, only for the anthology to later fall through. But in a good bit of news, it turned out that the story could indeed be re-marketed as sword and sorcery. As of ...
An employee of tobacco company Philip Morris International demonstrates a heated tobacco device. Photo: Getty ImagesTL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy on Friday, July 19 are:At a time when the Coalition Government is cutting spending on health, infrastructure, education, housing ...
TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 8:30 am on Friday, July 19 are:Scoop: NZ First Minister Casey Costello orders 50% cut to excise tax on heated tobacco products. The minister has ...
Kia ora, it’s time for another Friday roundup, in which we pull together some of the links and stories that caught our eye this week. Feel free to add more in the comments! Our header image this week shows a foggy day in Auckland town, captured by Patrick Reynolds. ...
TL;DR : Here’s the top six items climate news for Aotearoa this week, as selected by Bernard Hickey and The Kākā’s climate correspondent Cathrine Dyer. A discussion recorded yesterday is in the video above and the audio of that sent onto the podcast feed.The Government released its draft Emissions Reduction ...
Save some money, get rich and old, bring it back to Tobacco Road.Bring that dynamite and a crane, blow it up, start all over again.Roll up. Roll up. Or tailor made, if you prefer...Whether you’re selling ciggies, digging for gold, catching dolphins in your nets, or encouraging folks to flutter ...
Waiting In The Wings:For truly, if Trump is America’s un-assassinated Caesar, then J.D. Vance is America’s Octavian, the Republic’s youthful undertaker – and its first Emperor.DONALD TRUMP’S SELECTION of James D. Vance as his running-mate bodes ill for the American republic. A fervent supporter of Viktor Orban, the “illiberal” prime ...
TL;DR: As of 6:00 am on Friday, July 19, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:The PSAannounced the Employment Relations Authority (ERA) had ruled in the PSA’s favour in its case against the Ministry ...
Te Rangi e tu nei (The sky above us) Te Papa e takoto nei (The land beneath us) Tatou katoa te hunga ora (To us all the living) Tena koutou katoa (Greetings) ...
A late change to charter school legislation will cheat educators out of fair pay and negotiating power proving charter schools are just a vehicle to make profit out of our education system. ...
In 2004 te iwi Māori rallied against the Crown’s attempt to confiscate our coastlines and moana with the Foreshore and Seabed Act. This led to the largest hīkoi of a generation and the birth of Te Pāti Māori. 20 years later, history is repeating itself. Today the government has announced ...
It has been five and a half years since the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in Care was established to investigate the abuse of children, young people, and vulnerable adults within state and faith-based institutions. Yesterday, the final report - Whanaketia through pain and trauma, from darkness to light ...
The Green Party is calling on the Government to take action off the back of the International Court of Justice ruling on Israel’s illegal occupation of Palestine. ...
On Friday the International Court of Justice reaffirmed what Palestinian’s have been telling us for decades: that the occupation and colonisation of Palestinian lands by Israel is illegal and must end immediately. They also called for reparations for Palestinian’s who have lived under Israeli occupation since it began in 1967. ...
Labour calls on the Government to act after the International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruled that Israel’s occupation of Palestinian Territories is illegal. ...
The 53.7 percent rise in benefit sanctions over the last year is more proof of this Government’s disdain for our communities most in need of support. ...
Aotearoa could be a country where every child grows up feeling safe, loved and with a sense of belonging in their whānau and community. But for some of our children, this is far from reality. Instead, they are trapped in a maze of intergenerational harm that they can’t escape on ...
Te Pāti Māori are calling for David Seymour to resign as Associate Health Minister in response to his call for Pharmac to ignore the Treaty of Waitangi. “This announcement is just another example of the government’s anti-Tiriti, anti-Māori agenda.” Said Co-leader and spokesperson for health, Debbie Ngarewa-Packer. “Seymour thinks it ...
The soaring price of renting is driving the rise of inflation in this country - with latest figures from Stats NZ showing rents are up 4.8 per cent on average while annual inflation is at 3.3 per cent. ...
National’s Emissions Reduction Plan will take New Zealand further from the economy we need to ensure the next generation has a stable climate and secure livelihoods. ...
Following consultation with named parties and thorough consideration of privacy interests, the Green Party is in a position to release the Executive Summary of the final report from the independent investigation into Darleen Tana. ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon should be asking serious questions of his Minister for Resources Shane Jones now it’s been revealed he misled the public about a dinner with mining companies that he didn’t declare and said wasn’t pre-arranged. ...
Te Pāti Māori have submitted to the Justice Select Committee against the Sentencing (Reinstating Three Strikes) Amendment Bill. The bill will further entrench racism in our justice system and fails to focus on rehabilitation. “Reinstating Three Strikes will empower a systematically racist system and exacerbate the overrepresentation of Māori in ...
The Transport and Infrastructure Committee is set to make a determination on the Residential Tenancies Amendment (RTA) Bill in the coming weeks. “This legislation will give landlords the power to kick our whānau out onto the street for no reason” said Housing spokesperson, Mariameno Kapa-Kingi. “Their solution to the housing ...
“National’s campaign was about tackling crime and the best they can do is a two-year long Ministerial Advisory Group,” Labour justice spokesperson Duncan Webb said. ...
“There are more examples of charter schools failing their students than there are success stories. The coalition Government is driving to dismantle our public school system and instead promote a privatised, competitive structure that puts profits before kids,” Jan Tinetti said. ...
“This government is choosing to deliberately mislead and withhold information, keeping our people in the dark about this government’s agenda and the future of our mokopuna,” said co-leader and spokesperson for Health, Debbie Ngarewa-Packer. The call comes after the demand from the Chief Ombudsman that Associate Minister of Health, Casey ...
“Today’s climate announcement by Simon Watts makes clear the National Government is simply paying lip service to meeting its climate change targets,” Megan Woods said. ...
National is choosing to make life harder for workers by taking away the rights our communities have fought hard for. Here's how they’re taking workers backwards. ...
Australia, Canada and New Zealand today issued the following statement on the need for an urgent ceasefire in Gaza and the risk of expanded conflict between Hizballah and Israel. The situation in Gaza is catastrophic. The human suffering is unacceptable. It cannot continue. We remain unequivocal in our condemnation of ...
Attorney-General Judith Collins today reminded all State and faith-based institutions of their legal obligation to preserve records relevant to the safety and wellbeing of those in its care. “The Abuse in Care Inquiry’s report has found cases where records of the most vulnerable people in State and faith‑based institutions were ...
Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says the Government’s online safety website for children and young people has reached one million page views. “It is great to see so many young people and their families accessing the site Keep It Real Online to learn how to stay safe online, and manage ...
Tēnā tātou katoa, Ngā mihi te rangi, ngā mihi te whenua, ngā mihi ki a koutou, kia ora mai koutou. Thank you for the opportunity to be here and the invitation to speak at this 50th anniversary conference. I acknowledge all those who have gone before us and paved the ...
New Zealand’s payroll providers have successfully prepared to ensure 3.5 million individuals will, from Wednesday next week, be able to keep more of what they earn each pay, says Finance Minister Nicola Willis and Revenue Minister Simon Watts. “The Government's tax policy changes are legally effective from Wednesday. Delivering this tax ...
An experimental vineyard which will help futureproof the wine sector has been opened in Blenheim by Associate Regional Development Minister Mark Patterson. The covered vineyard, based at the New Zealand Wine Centre – Te Pokapū Wāina o Aotearoa, enables controlled environmental conditions. “The research that will be produced at the Experimental ...
The Coalition Government has confirmed the indicative regional breakdown of North Island Weather Event (NIWE) funding for state highway recovery projects funded through Budget 2024, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Regions in the North Island suffered extensive and devastating damage from Cyclone Gabrielle and the 2023 Auckland Anniversary Floods, and ...
Indonesia’s Foreign Minister, Retno Marsudi, will visit New Zealand next week, Foreign Minister Winston Peters has announced. “Indonesia is important to New Zealand’s security and economic interests and is our closest South East Asian neighbour,” says Mr Peters, who is currently in Laos to engage with South East Asian partners. ...
He aha te kai a te rangatira? He kōrero, he kōrero, he kōrero. The government has reaffirmed its commitment to supporting the aspirations of Ngāti Maniapoto, Minister for Māori Development Tama Potaka says. “My thanks to Te Nehenehenui Trust – Ngāti Maniapoto for bringing their important kōrero to a ministerial ...
Transport Minister Simeon Brown has thanked outgoing Chair of the Civil Aviation Authority, Janice Fredric, for her service to the board.“I have received Ms Fredric’s resignation from the role of Chair of the Civil Aviation Authority,” Mr Brown says.“On behalf of the Government, I want to thank Ms Fredric for ...
The Government is proposing legislation to overturn a Court of Appeal decision and amend the Marine and Coastal Area Act in order to restore Parliament’s test for Customary Marine Title, Treaty Negotiations Minister Paul Goldsmith says. “Section 58 required an applicant group to prove they have exclusively used and occupied ...
Regulation Minister David Seymour says that opposition parties have united in bad faith, opposing what they claim are ‘dangerous changes’ to the Early Childhood Education sector, despite no changes even being proposed yet. “Issues with affordability and availability of early childhood education, and the complexity of its regulation, has led ...
After receiving more than 740 submissions in the first 20 days, Regulation Minister David Seymour is asking the Ministry for Regulation to extend engagement on the early childhood education regulation review by an extra two weeks. “The level of interest has been very high, and from the conversations I’ve been ...
The Coalition Government is investing $802.9 million into the Wairarapa and Manawatū rail lines as part of a funding agreement with the NZ Transport Agency (NZTA), KiwiRail, and the Greater Wellington and Horizons Regional Councils to deliver more reliable services for commuters in the lower North Island, Transport Minister Simeon ...
Local Government Minister Simeon Brown has announced his intention to appoint a Crown Manager to both Hawke’s Bay Regional and Wairoa District Councils to speed up the delivery of flood protection work in Wairoa."Recent severe weather events in Wairoa this year, combined with damage from Cyclone Gabrielle in 2023 have ...
Mr Speaker, this is a day that many New Zealanders who were abused in State care never thought would come. It’s the day that this Parliament accepts, with deep sorrow and regret, the Report of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in Care. At the heart of this report are the ...
For the first time, the Government is formally acknowledging some children and young people at Lake Alice Psychiatric Hospital experienced torture. The final report of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in State and Faith-based Care “Whanaketia – through pain and trauma, from darkness to light,” was tabled in Parliament ...
The Government has acknowledged the nearly 2,400 courageous survivors who shared their experiences during the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Historical Abuse in State and Faith-Based Care. The final report from the largest and most complex public inquiry ever held in New Zealand, the Royal Commission Inquiry “Whanaketia – through ...
With a week to go before hard-working New Zealanders see personal income tax relief for the first time in fourteen years, 513,000 people have used the Budget tax calculator to see how much they will benefit, says Finance Minister Nicola Willis. “Tax relief is long overdue. From next Wednesday, personal income ...
Workplace Relations and Safety Minister Brooke van Velden says a bill that has passed its first reading will improve parental leave settings and give non-biological parents more flexibility as primary carer for their child. The Regulatory Systems Amendment Bill (No3), passed its first reading this morning. “It includes a change ...
Two Bills designed to improve regulation and make it easier to do business have passed their first reading in Parliament, says Economic Development Minister Melissa Lee. The Regulatory Systems (Economic Development) Amendment Bill and Regulatory Systems (Immigration and Workforce) Amendment Bill make key changes to legislation administered by the Ministry ...
New legislation paves the way for greater competition in sectors such as banking and electricity, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly says. “Competitive markets boost productivity, create employment opportunities and lift living standards. To support competition, we need good quality regulation but, unfortunately, a recent OECD report ranked New ...
Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says lotteries for charitable purposes, such as those run by the Heart Foundation, Coastguard NZ, and local hospices, will soon be allowed to operate online permanently. “Under current laws, these fundraising lotteries are only allowed to operate online until October 2024, after which ...
The Coalition Government is accelerating work on the new four-lane expressway between Auckland and Whangārei as part of its Roads of National Significance programme, with an accelerated delivery model to deliver this project faster and more efficiently, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “For too long, the lack of resilient transport connections ...
Sir Don McKinnon will travel to Viet Nam this week as a Special Envoy of the Government, Foreign Minister Winston Peters has announced. “It is important that the Government give due recognition to the significant contributions that General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong made to New Zealand-Viet Nam relations,” Mr ...
Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says newly appointed Commissioner, Grant Illingworth KC, will help deliver the report for the first phase of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into COVID-19 Lessons, due on 28 November 2024. “I am pleased to announce that Mr Illingworth will commence his appointment as ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters travels to Laos this week to participate in a series of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)-led Ministerial meetings in Vientiane. “ASEAN plays an important role in supporting a peaceful, stable and prosperous Indo-Pacific,” Mr Peters says. “This will be our third visit to ...
Construction of a new mental health facility at Te Nikau Grey Hospital in Greymouth is today one step closer, Mental Health Minister Matt Doocey says. “This $27 million facility shows this Government is delivering on its promise to boost mental health care and improve front line services,” Mr Doocey says. ...
New Zealand is committing nearly $50 million to a package supporting sustainable Pacific fisheries development over the next four years, Foreign Minister Winston Peters and Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones announced today. “This support consisting of a range of initiatives demonstrates New Zealand’s commitment to assisting our Pacific partners ...
Associate Education Minister David Seymour says proposed changes to the Education and Training Amendment Bill will ensure charter schools have more flexibility to negotiate employment agreements and are equipped with the right teaching resources. “Cabinet has agreed to progress an amendment which means unions will not be able to initiate ...
In response to serious concerns around oversight, overspend and a significant deterioration in financial outlook, the Board of Health New Zealand will be replaced with a Commissioner, Health Minister Dr Shane Reti announced today. “The previous government’s botched health reforms have created significant financial challenges at Health NZ that, without ...
Minister for Space and Science, Innovation and Technology Judith Collins will travel to Adelaide tomorrow for space and science engagements, including speaking at the Australian Space Forum. While there she will also have meetings and visits with a focus on space, biotechnology and innovation. “New Zealand has a thriving space ...
Climate Change Minister Simon Watts will travel to China on Saturday to attend the Ministerial on Climate Action meeting held in Wuhan. “Attending the Ministerial on Climate Action is an opportunity to advocate for New Zealand climate priorities and engage with our key partners on climate action,” Mr Watts says. ...
Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones is travelling to the Solomon Islands tomorrow for meetings with his counterparts from around the Pacific supporting collective management of the region’s fisheries. The 23rd Pacific Islands Forum Fisheries Committee and the 5th Regional Fisheries Ministers’ Meeting in Honiara from 23 to 26 July ...
The Government today launched the Military Style Academy Pilot at Te Au rere a te Tonga Youth Justice residence in Palmerston North, an important part of the Government’s plan to crackdown on youth crime and getting youth offenders back on track, Minister for Children, Karen Chhour said today. “On the ...
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And exactly why did WHO's Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus spend weeks telling there was no need to stop international travel, all the while praising China's response that primarily involved shutting tens of millions into their appartments and stopping all travel within China?
When he knew that virus's don't know the difference between the borders of a city and a country?
When he knew millions had evaded the initial Hubei lockdown?
When he knew the silent transmission characteristic that made it certain the virus would get out of China?
If the rest of the world had stopped all international travel out of China at the start of Feb, instead of now, we would not be facing this crisis. Instead China insisted that any such travel ban would be 'racist', while at the same time imposing the same measures domestically.
These are not actions in good faith. Some hard questions need answers.
Maybe after things settle down?
It's a pretty weird twist of global fate when the country and the government that essentially caused the outbreak in the first place is the country that is using that same moment to become the predominant power of the world.
Rather than send Xi Jinping the bill for all of it, we are sending him exports and gratitude.
so you have proof that China is the source of this? care to share?
I think Wuhan is in China…Sabine.
yes, but as i said, at the same time you had cases already in the US.
So, we know fuck all, all we know is that the first one to raise the issue was a chinese doctor, and that the first country to do something was China.
As of now no one has any idea what it is that brought that virus forth (and no the food was not it) and we don't know who patient one is and where he/she could have potentially been exposed to it.
For what its worth the last 'flu' season in the US was bad, very very bad, and a few of these dead could possibly counted towards the Virus. But as the US did not test, D. Trump the fuckwit refused testing for the longest time they now have a worse outbreak then China ever had.
So really, please do not call it the 'chinese' virus, its bullshit, its racists and its just fucking dumb. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus
Sabine, I like you, but you're wrong here. It started in China same way SARS et al started due to sloppy OSH & their Gov not monitoring/ regulating/banning live wildlife 'wet' markets. So to state fact and say its' Wuhan or Chinese Flu is not in itself inherently racist albeit is true that racists will like to play up it's Chinese origin but that doesn't mean you have to go PC and doublespeak. A spade is a spade & a shovel is a shovel.
KLW/CrimzonGhost, Libertarian Socialist.
Wuhan was the source of the outbreak.
Wuhan is in China.
Shared.
There's a difference between source and caused.
Would the current situation be much different if a similar virus had emerged in Saudi Arabia or Kentucky. Probably the only difference would be that it wouldn't be in China.
Couldnt possible be working exactly as planned. ??
No but it is a real hinge of fate moment.
We should all recall this year, as the Chinese do, the Year of the Rat.
Does this cheap racism make you feel better?
Look, if you see racism in laying out a fact (ie it started in Wuhan, China & Chinese actions/inactions helped it spread as they withheld info & misled) , you've got a problem. If everything is racist & fascist then ultimately nothing is …the terms become devalued & meaningless.
I suggest the tardy response by governments other than the Chinese is more responsible for the spread of coronavirus outside China.
"On December 31 last year, China alerted WHO to several cases of unusual pneumonia in Wuhan, a port city of 11 million people in the central Hubei province. The virus was unknown."
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/timeline-china-coronavirus-spread-200126061554884.html
Next you'll be calling it the "Chinese virus"
And, from the editor of the Lancet
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/18/coronavirus-uk-expert-advice-wrong
"The Chinese scientists pulled no punches. “The number of deaths is rising quickly,” they wrote. The provision of personal protective equipment for health workers was strongly recommended. Testing for the virus should be done immediately a diagnosis was suspected. They concluded that the mortality rate was high. And they urged careful surveillance of this new virus in view of its “pandemic potential”.
That was in January. Why did it take the UK government eight weeks to recognise the seriousness of what we now call Covid-19?"
Fully agree that every country has to own their own fate after it got out of China.
Some like South Korea figured out the early-and-hard path to success.
When the Chinese notified the WHO is irrelevant.
The key date is the time it took the Chinese government to lock down Wuhan and most of Hubei into quarantine.
That was 23 January.
Looking back 6 weeks after that, a series of further measures slowed the spread.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/china-s-aggressive-measures-have-slowed-coronavirus-they-may-not-work-other-countries
But by 23 January it was well and truly out.
China is trolling the world with alternative histories right now, but the Chinese government was responsible for not stopping the initial spread of the virus.
Fuck off with your irrelevant accusations Ad. No one new what this thing was then. It would have taken a number of weeks for the Chinese to wake up to what they were dealing with. We’re at the arsehole of the world and have had six weeks to get it right an start getting in testing supplies etc. we’re still fucking it up but looking good on TV. We’re always late yet we are in the world’s best place to stop it. Throwing stones at China and being slow pick up on what they learnt means we are useless not them.
Possibly the most effective response was that by Singapore.
They started preparing immediately after the first warning at the end of December. Then they went in as a full scale operation in late January. I believe they ended up with 266 cases and no deaths.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120433407/why-singapores-coronavirus-response-worked–and-what-we-can-all-learn
I remember advocating on 6 March that we should be getting our arses into gear rather than just ignoring things. At the time I suggested we should simply do precisely what Singapore was doing. Don't you wish now that we had done so?
https://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-06-03-2020/#comment-1689513
By the way. If you one of those who commented in reply to my opinion are you still happy with the views you then expressed about how self isolation and so on was just fine?
the government that essentially caused the outbreak
ffs. Seriously?!
Lemme help you out here Ad. The outbreak was (probably) essentially caused by a virus transmitting from one species to another (us).
In addition – Chinese authorities were confronted by something novel coming at them from 'left field', whereas our government and others, well…
The outbreak was (probably) essentially caused by a virus transmitting from one species to another
When researchers based at the Wuhan biolab publish papers in Nature back in 2015 detailing how they had recombined a novel bat virus and the original SAR's virus, then yes you are technically correct.
Incidentally my Chinese source tells me three interesting things. One is that the ethnic/language group in Hubei speak a quite different dialect from the dominant Manderin/Cantonese. They have long been regarded with disdain by the central authorities.
Secondly, and I have no English language reference for this so it's in the very grey zone of 'maybe', Chinese social media sources are saying that the Wuhan lab has been recently demolished and no longer exists.
Thirdly the CCP has just made a big dog and pony show of expelling all US journalists from China; journalists who spoke the language and knew their way around the system. Any remaining foreign journalists will be hugely intimidated by this, and given the way they closely monitor their activities, the chances of any independent proof of what actually happened in Wuhan is now close to zero.
The other real consideration is the high probability of of an unintentional leak from the lab, either due to lax procedures or the well known animal trade from these labs that has documented instance of happening before.
Absolutely I understand what I'm implying regarding intent. I’m pointing out the dots, it’s up to you how you decide to join them.
And Ad very eloquently used the phrase "hinge of fate" …. this indeed is another possibility. But given the CCP's utterly vile human rights record right from … well their very beginnings … why are so many people in the West giving them any benefit of the doubt on this?
Dangerous information RL – if there is any confirmed (or sadly made up and widely distributed information) facts that this is a bioengineered virus that has been mistakenly released there'll be some potentially very nasty consequences over and above what we're experiencing at present.
My best guess is that the initial Patient Zero was probably an accident. But sometime in early Jan the CCP decided to game it.
That's "twin towers" stuff right there Red and no less useful.
Yeah I know, no such thing as bad intent. The CCP are living, walking angels who will save us all. /sarc
Yet all but one of my points are public domain knowledge, together they form a number of possible patterns if you care to look. And given the impossibility of getting reliable evidence, then neither you nor I can insist we are right.
But reflexively dismissing everything you think impossible as ‘tin foil hat’ territory is rather tired. Sometimes bad people really do bad shit, and given the CCP’s known track record of bad shit ….
It's not impossible.
Just pointless, impossible to verify, based on reckons, and a casus belli for violent racists everywhere.
Like bloody "cheese pizza" all over again.
Just pointless, impossible to verify, based on reckons, and a casus belli for violent racists everywhere.
Fair enough if you don't want to understand. I can get that. At the same time plenty of people here have no trouble leveling all manner of very direct attacks on Trump's administration, without anyone saying it's a "casus belli for violent racists everywhere".
🙄 Well, no. Because he's the one on the side of the racists. "Good people on both sides", remember that?
But if you can prove that covid-19 is a CCP bioweapon, put up or shut up. Otherwise you're just trying to make people more jumpy than they already are.
I was careful not to claim that it was designed or intended to be a bioweapon. Research labs work with all sorts of nasties for perfectly legit reasons, many of which you really don't want to unintentionally leak out. There is plenty of precedent for this sort of thing happening, so it's not an unreasonable presupposition.
Or hell it could have just been a zoonotic leap between species due to their medieval food systems the CCP has signally failed to tackle, it doesn’t really matter, in this context.
But my sense is that what happened after that is where the mystery deepens. At the very least the CCP are gaming their self-inflicted disaster into a propaganda win. Not only are too many people buying into it (because racist), but it disheartens many ordinary Chinese who loath the CCP and want an end to their enslavement.
COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic has a natural origin
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/03/200317175442.htm
Hey, how about you store your pointless senses somewhere productive for the duration, yeah?
You know, until actual reality stops being so terrifying to so many people. Speaking for myself, I've got a workplace set to do as much as possible from home, an elderly relative in self-iso, a sibling with a job fast-disappearing, and an immun-compromised friend off work in self-iso.
What, exactly, do your fucking spidey-senses do to improve the the emotional landscapes and personal threat assessments they and hundreds of thousands like them have to perform every fucking moment of the day?
@Incognito
Good link thanks, which states critically:
But the scientists found that the SARS-CoV-2 backbone differed substantially from those of already known coronaviruses and mostly resembled related viruses found in bats and pangolins.
And that is the whole point of the 2015 paper in Nature, that they were using novel coronavirus's found in bats for research purposes. Back then they published one version that was the result of a recombination with the original SARs. Their US lab partner deemed the work too dangerous and destroyed everything at their end, and recommended the same in Wuhan.
But there was never any confirmation they did so, nor that they didn't carry on with the work on other novel bat virus's. So yes it's perfectly reasonable to think they may have been working with a virus that was completely unknown outside the Wuhan lab.
The existence of the 2015 paper is that it is incontrovertible proof they were working in this exact field at that time.
@McF
Everyone is dealing with a cascade of consequences right now. If you don't want to participate in this little thread right now I totally get it.
I just noticed that Francesca @ 1.2.4.1.3 also responded to you and linked to the same Nature article. The evidence that this is a bioengineered virus seems lacking. This doesn’t mean it didn’t escape from a lab, of course. The more scary implication, however, is that it jumped species (i.e. to human) in a completely natural way and that this can happen again in future.
Anyway, the answers to these and other interesting and pertinent questions won’t help us much with dealing with the present ‘aftermath’ of what happened, however it happened.
But I have a duty to, because pandemics don't just kill from the disease directly. They can also kill by the fear they create, and that fear is stoked and directed by people insisting on spreading rumours based on what they "sense".
Asians are already getting shit for this. I'm sure you focus on the middle "C" in "CCP" when talking about "self-inflicted", but not even you can be so tone-deaf to not notice how others might focus on the first "C"?
I'm sure you focus on the middle "C" in "CCP" when talking about "self-inflicted", but not even you can be so tone-deaf to not notice how others might focus on the first "C"?
Yes you are absolutely correct on the first part of that. Still it's hard not to notice that the second is the same card the CCP play everytime they yell 'racist' when they want to shut down any thing they don't like.
And yet it can also be true.
Dolt45 knew which buttons he was pushing when he went for "Chinese" virus rather than "communist" virus. If you were unaware such buttons existed in many nations, well, now you know.
So kindly come up with proof, or keep your senses to your damned self.
Do you want a long list of diseases that are named after places or countries. How about Lyme disease?
And many other examples exist.
Trump started calling the "Chinese Virus" when various CCP mouthpieces repeatedly claimed that the virus was deliberated released into China by the USA to damage the Chinese economy. Pointed yes … racist only if you insist.
Then there was the State run media Xinhua hinting that China could use it's stranglehold on pharmaceutical supplies to "plunge the USA into the mighty sea of coronavirus" by withholding them.
🙄
I really don't understand how you could be, or why you would pretend to be, so oblivious to the cultural context in which you choose to make your statements.
So I will return to the question a few comments ago: how does your "sense" of how this pandemic started contribute to social stability in a globally-stressful time?
German measles, Zika virus (region in Uganda), Japanese encephalitis, Spanish flu (and is still called this on the WHO website), MERS (Middle Eastern Respitory Syndrome), Marburg virus (Germany again), West Nile virus, Ebola virus (name of a river in the Congo), Legionnaires Disease (from a conference in Philadelphia), Lhassa Fever, Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever, Nawalk virus (also known as norovirus).
Then there was Mad Cow disease named after my mother in law![cheeky cheeky](https://cdn.ckeditor.com/4.11.3/full-all/plugins/smiley/images/tongue_smile.png)
So the idea that we must not name diseases after places, or groups of people for fear of offence or stigmatisation, really is 'snowflake pc gone mad'.
how does your "sense" of how this pandemic started contribute to social stability in a globally-stressful time?
Pretty much the same authoritarian reasoning that led the Wuhan administration and police to silence the first doctors who attempted to raise attention about the new disease they were seeing back in December.
This crisis is going to have political consequences sooner or later.
That's not actually an answer to the question. What good is your "sensing" doing for anyone?
Someone recently wrote:
According to that writer, "authoritarian" isn't even a criticism during a global pandemic.
Duh.
Try later then, when people aren't shitting themselves. Nothing compells you to spread rumours so "political consequences" happen sooner, rather than later.
Another reductionist conflation.
The correct response to reports from doctors about a new disease is to investigate and take prompt action, not to use crude intimidation to silence them.
The correct action when you already have a global pandemic is to take control as firmly as possible, not to dither for weeks for fear of causing offence to the Chinese.
If you can't tell the difference, there isn't much point is discussing this further.
As for 'what good this is'? Do you imagine the Chinese people are all docile fools who haven't asked all the same questions and not come to similar conclusions? Because at every turn you seem to be giving the CCP a free pass and ensuring our compliance; while everything orange man bad.
So, still no answer then.
Carry on, fearmonger rumourmill.
Here's another article from Nature, more recent than yours
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9?sf231596998=1
"Thus, the high-affinity binding of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein to human ACE2 is most likely the result of natural selection on a human or human-like ACE2 that permits another optimal binding solution to arise. This is strong evidence that SARS-CoV-2 is not the product of purposeful manipulation."
I was directed to this by a tweet from Dotcom
And if we're heading into conspiracy territory, there's this:
https://wjla.com/news/local/cdc-shut-down-army-germ-lab-health-concerns
More links about the viruses they were studying soon
Fort Detrick as you will know has been involved in bio weaponry for a very long time, LSD in the 50's
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/09/15/cia-fort-detrick-stephen-kinzer-228109
@bill – as has been happening in china for sometime and more often in recent times, when you shove that many people and other live species in close contact things have an increasing chance of shitting themselves.
Perhaps we should follow Ed's advice and make the world go vegetarian – when was the last time anyone caught an infectious disease from a turnip ?
COVID 19 is new. It hasn't been "happening in China for some time".
SARS and MERS are types of coronavirus that China and other places have a fair amount of experience with. But they don't have the characteristic whereby infectious individuals can be asymptomatic.
If you were merely meaning to suggest that China is a prime location for the emergence of various viruses, then yes – I suspect there's no argument from anyone on that front.
edit. Sorry. My bad. For whatever reason, I read the first word of your comment as “it”.
Not turnips, but I seem to recall an issue with cabbages a while ago.
It is simply less likely.
Humans have been known to get sick from viruses that live in seawater and who normally attach to sea bacteria for their breeding (can't remember the reference right now – but it has happened).
Viruses aren't that choosy and are opportunistic. Given the number of human targets and sufficient time you'll find that they will will test all pathways.
It is simply less likely.
Very very much less likely, there's little commonalties between homo sapiens and the humble turnip that would attract a virus who has chosen vegetables as their host of choice….although looking around the world at the moment i do note the Donald is turning oranger on a daily basis.
Not deliberate imo Redlogix @ 1. Remember information was extremely fluid in those early days and no-one wanted to come across as scaremongering panic artists. Also at that point, anyone asking for all international travel to be stopped would have had their heads chopped off – metaphorically speaking.
Look what happened to the Chinese doctor who tried to warn the country many months ago they were in for a pandemic. She was publicly reprimanded by their government which must have had awful consequences for her and later died of the disease herself.
Intent scarcely matters anymore. Here is one thing I do know for certain, there is deep fury with CCP among the Chinese people themselves. And they in turn despair when they see the West swallow CCP 'alternative history' uncritically.
Hell, that comes as no surprise whatsoever. Wouldn't trust Putin's Russia for the truth either.
My comment was directed at the WHO and Dr Tedro etc.etc. – can't be bothered looking up the spelling.
Tinfoil hat territory but it's possible she didn't die from the disease but was knocked off for her whistleblowing by the CCP.
Not tinfoil hat material at all!
A dead martyr is of much more use to the CCP than a live critic.
I've been asking much the same questions. When the initial news broke for me it was by way of banner headlines in The Guardian, and my immediate reaction was one of dismissal – the boy had cried wolf before.
But when China locked down cities…yeah, that's not something done lightly.
In my mind, and I this said around that time, NZ should have banned cruise ships and, if not entirely closed the borders, introduced strict measures at airports. (And not only for travellers arriving from China)
But Red. We live in a word where financial considerations outweigh all others. So this government (in my mind – as others – one that's essentially comprised of dullards who have merely been cunning enough to get their uncertain hands on levers of power) did sweet fuck all that might have "unduly" upset markets.
And so "here we are" in a shite state of affairs, and still the government is predicating responses on chrematistic factors .
We live in a word where financial considerations outweigh all others.
I understand that fully; after all crash stopping our economies is not a decision to be taken lightly, it will lead to loss and suffering. No govt should take that move lightly.
But WHO's role in this gave them perfect cover to hesitate for a crucial month.
crash stopping our economies is not a decision to be taken lightly
The irony being that the US is expecting a 14% contraction in the next quarter, which in context, is greater than what happened in post collapse Russia.
I'm thinking the masters of capital would have been well served to have hit the pause button for a short spell, although…they can always fall back on disaster capitalism – if we allow them the space and opportunity to.
But WHO's role in this gave them perfect cover to hesitate for a crucial month.
The smoking pixels.🫁
https://twitter.com/shypk/status/1240674804509761538
If the rest of the world had stopped all international travel out of China at the start of Feb, instead of now, we would not be facing this crisis.
The NZ government did bar entry to people travelling from or through China at the start of February, pretty sure Australia did also. Took some bollocks because it was strongly criticised by the Chinese government at the time. Poor response from the WHO is probably down to the same problem as with every other UN organisation: corruption and influence-peddling.
True but when only Australia and NZ did this (and full credit to them) and most other countries did not, then our policy was rendered ineffective due to the obvious barn-sized backdoor.
Changed your mind about being "authoritarian to ensure people's safety. Eh?
Reductionist idiocy. If you had bothered to actually read any of what I was saying about gun control, instead of just reflexively projecting onto me, you would have noted me repeatedly acknowledging that the safety/liberty equation is a balance which varies according to context and circumstance.
In the case of a global pandemic, the correct balance point is right at the authoritarian end of the scale. Just how it always has been.
What if all the banks and loan agencies just decided to stop taking repayments for 6 months . ? No interest? They would lose no profit in the long run .
what about their bonus'…get your priorities right.
Hee.
But seriously could it be done?
They'd try to make up any losses by robbing their depositors through haircuts
Whereas little old Kiwibank has an even tighter relationship:
Owned 49% by ACC and NZSuperfund, 51% by NZPost two large branches of corporate government are propping up another. When you look who is on those Boards and senior executives of them all, what you discover is a very tight clique of super-executive-bureaucrat hybrids who operate this country's major pools of public capital like one long uninterrupted secret conversation.
And for a country in extremis like we are going into, that's actually not a bad thing. Something like the analogy for making sausages.
What the banks will be taking most note of is which governments were the first to fold by essentially underwriting mortgage payments.
They'll put that in the book for next time.
The "quid pro quo" for bailing out the retail banks (no losses on their mortgage for property lending) is government financing their expenses with social credit rather than debt.
I have been asking for that for a few weeks now.
But i was told that we should apply for a credit with the bank, can't interfere with making some profit via some disaster capitalism.
Am I right in thinking that the spread of this season's flu will be greatly reduced, even defeated, because of the social-dstancing/hand-washing etc, undertaken by New Zealanders in response to COVID 19?
More likely everyone taking up the company 'flu shots like never before.
Should they bother? If my suppose is correct, no one will need them – yes?
OMG Robert go back to the garden.
The reason we have 'flu shots is to stop the hospitals being overwhelmed even more than they are about to be.
If there is a 'flu shot available to you, get it.
I don't follow your argument, Ad. If flu doesn't spread, there will be no "overwhelming" of the hospitals. Surely, doctors have better things to do with their time, during an outbreak of COVID 19, than give flu jabs?
Nurses give jabs for the 'flu Robert.
There is no reason to assume the common 'flu will be any better or se than any other year, but every year hospital beds get filled up with people with the 'flu.
Seriously don't to medical what-ifs at a time like this, and follow the advice.
"There is no reason to assume the common 'flu will be any better or se than any other year"
Isn't there?
I was wondering if the considerable changes being made to reduce the spread of COVID 19 might also reduce the spread of the flu. Seems logical, but you don't think so? That's okay. Curious how you are so anxious about even floating such an idea.
Let me see, Robert.
You're curious how there's some anxiety about you proposing that people should not get the 'flu shot this year.
We are in very close to full martial law and you're wondering why people get a bit anxious.
Stop speculating Robert and – follow the advice.
I haven't proposed that people should not get the flu shot this year, Ad.
I've wondered aloud whether the measures taken against COVID 19 might reduce or eliminate the incidence of flu in NZ.
True, but you did wonder if people should bother. I think those that are good with getting vaccinated should make the effort, because we don't know how things will play out, so it's an erring on the side of caution thing. We need lots of that.
Hmmmm…I'm loathe to niggle you, weka, but I wrote,
"Should they bother? If my suppose is correct…"
"If" is the qualifier. If the new practices brought about to counter the spread of COVID 19 don't work in the case of the flu, then I don't challenge the need for the flu jab. If they do mean there's no or minimal spread of the flu, then my proposal has validity, perhaps. But not to be discussed here on TS, it seems. Back to the garden for me. I'm harvesting oyster mushrooms that I grew on straw in the underground wine cellar I dug; it's damp and dark in there and the fungi love it!
Robert I hope you have a look later on after the mushrooms, and can tell me about this – I have been putting some rinse water from the washing machine after I have used mild laundry detergent called woolwash, on my cherry plum tree. I know there are still traces of the detergent in the water as there is some bubbling from it. The tree has leaves that look a bit dull and droopy on the nearest side to the runoff of rinse water.
My question – could I be harming the old tree, some of which is dying off anyway, with this water? The other side is looking fine.
that's a bit black and white, I think you are missing the greys (we don't know, it will depend, there will still be some flu but we don't know how much).
It's seems clear that hygiene and distancing will have an impact on flu transmission.
It's not that it can't be discussed, it's that many people have a low tolerance at the moment for speculation about public health matters and this colours how they respond. Asking the question was good imo, because there will be others wondering the same thing. Ad's tetchiness probably didn't help that conversation go well, but people are managing their stress in lots of different ways.
You have a wine and fungi cellar! Did you do your own straw innoculation? I'm waiting for it to warm up a bit so I can plant out some seedlings.
If commenters go deeper with a question, a wondering if, and not just reaction to a previous thought, there will be a depth to the blog that tends to shallow out at times.
I don't think NZ is up to speed enough yet with social distancing and hand washing for it to have such a big effect, but I'm sure it will have some. The principle that Ad states is still sound, maybe flu gets reduced 50% from our actions, that's still a lot for the health system to deal with.
I expect some of that drop will be reversed by the high stress states people are in.
People who get flu now may be more susceptible to covid later due to being run down.
People who won't want a flu vaccine, that's fine imo but they need to take more care in not spreading that virus.
Afaik, vaccines are being prioritised atm for people that really need them.
btw, for people like myself who are used to managing our health without vaccines currently, we need to prepare for having a covid vaccine when it becomes available. I'll talk to my GP about that when the time comes (there's some complications for me), and we have no idea what the situation will be globally or in NZ by the time a vaccine becomes available, but there's a shift in parts of the culture that need to happen here. For many the vaccine is to protect others.
Hard core anti-vaxers are going to find their world view seriously challenged. Fortunately I've seen the anti-vaxer conspiracy theories around covid dropping off so maybe it won't be such an issue.
"I don't think NZ is up to speed enough yet with social distancing and hand washing for it to have such a big effect"
What does that mean, I wonder, for the spread of COVID 19 then? Doesn't sound very encouraging, weka.
We don't yet have any community transmission, and we are in a process of learning new skills and getting better all the time. I think we're doing really well, and it's good to be aware of the things that aren't quite there yet.
The last week will have woken a lot of people up though.
I visited a friend last night and had a cup of tea and yarn. I washed my hands when I arrived, but didn't when I left (I did when I got home). We sat across the table from each other and I wasn't thinking about the tea cup I was drinking from. A lot of that will change once we have CV in the community locally. It takes time for people to learn how to do what in the right order, especially people in risk categories (both myself and my friend).
I'm getting better at not touching my face 🙂
Me too weka 🙂 That face touching thing is quite a thing to unlearn, isn't it?!
It is! I'm finding that different kinds of clothing help eg a loose shirt yesterday made it easier to scratch an itch on my face in various ways. I assume once we have community covid, that approach will mean more clothing washing too, but dependent upon probably exposure. I'm tending to think if it gets bad where I am I'll have to stay home mostly as the logistics of all that extra cleaning beyond handwashing are probably not possible for me to manage well.
Our son tells us spray the mail. Yes a great deal to think about.
Car door handles steering wheel and mirror. The list is never ending. Shoes off at the door and house slippers also makes sense when you see people spit.
Mail and boxes can be left at the door for 24 hours (seems to be the recommendation for cardboard anyway).
We don't yet have any community transmission
A few people have been saying this, and I'm genuinely puzzled by the assertion. "We don't have community transmission" is quite a step beyond "we haven't detected community transmission".
There are (I don't know how many) school kids who were meant to be in isolation in Dunedin – school kids who were spotted in the city centre. Then there are those cruise ship passengers who visited Dunedin and elsewhere who have been diagnosed as having COVID 19. Throw in however many asymptomatic people were coming through those airports until a few days ago…
We can state that community transmission hasn't been detected. Whether or not there actually is community transmission is a different kettle of fish. But I guess we'll be in a position to say one way or the other with some confidence in a wee while.
There are now two cases without links to overseas travel.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120464350/ministry-of-health-update-on-new-coronavirus-cases-in-new-zealand
lol that's maybe a very wee "wee while" then.
It's just shorthand for "we don't have evidence of community transmission." I doubt weka is unaware of the difference.
It's also not unreasonable short-hand. Two weeks ago people were saying it was unlikely that we didn't already have community transmission, and yet here we are two weeks later and still no sign of community transmission. It will turn up, but there's no reason to assume it's turned up before we have evidence for it.
That's quite the intelligent precautionary principle you're advocating there, aye? 🙄
The precautionary principle is bollocks. It's a recipe for never doing anything, ever. We assign experts in public health and epidemiology to advise on this stuff for a reason.
I read a week ago that the enthusiastic uptake of handwashing in Hong Kong has seen a marked reduction in all contagious diseases
Can't find the link though
Everyone getting flu jabs is one very simple low-cost thing everyone can do to reduce the burden on the health system in anticipation of the likely massive load coming up. On top of extra hand-washing and maintaining extra physical distance from others.
All of these actions have cumulative effects, each one reducing the burden on the health system a bit more.
Hand washing and physical distancing will reduce flu a bit, not eliminate it. More people getting flu jabs will reduce the flu season still further, not eliminate it. But if fewer people take up flu jabs, incorrectly thinking that extra hand-washing and extra distancing will protect them, then we're likely to have an extra-bad flu season on top of the expected COVID-19 problem.
That last sentence is a good point.
The only way we can be sure the flu won't spread is to make sure the bulk of the population is vaccinated against it. Even then it is not a 100% guarantee, but at least those who succumb are likely to be mild cases only. That frees up the time, energy and space for those at the medical front line to be able to concentrate on the corona virus cases.
"The only way we can be sure the flu won't spread is to make sure the bulk of the population is vaccinated against it"
Unfortunately the flu vaccine is not that effective. I think it's more a harm minimisation thing. Those that can get the vaccine and want to should. As with other vaccine issues, the small number of people that don't want to are less of an issue than those that do but don't access it for whatever reason (or don't care either way but will get vaccinated this time for all those reasons).
I agree, it doesn't seem to work that well with some people. However, since I started to have 'the jab' each year I have been free of flu.
When the Swine flu pandemic raged some years ago I caught it. However, according to my doctor, I didn't have to go to hospital because the general flu vaccine of the day had given me some protection from the severity of the symptoms.
It was a similar situation to the current virus although granted this one is even more serious.
Swine flu is an influenza virus. I don't think the flu vaccine will give protection of severity in covid. We're doing it for different reasons.
So, in summing-up, the processes being put in place will work for COVID 19 but won't work for the flu?
Where is the flu virus right now? Here in NZ? Overseas? Yet to be generated? If it's overseas still, how might it get here, given the travel restrictions? Will it wait till those are lifted?
"So, in summing-up, the processes being put in place will work for COVID 19 but won't work for the flu?"
Not sure how you go that Robert. Handwashing and social distancing and social isolation will have an impact on flu transmission, but we don't know to what extent and it can't be relied upon enough to change public health messaging that people should get a flu vaccine to limit strain on the health system if we get a widespread covid outbreak.
There's always flu in NZ. It gets worse in winter (because of the environment?). Yes, we will get less new strains because of no more tourists, but again, we don't know yet how this will play out, hence erring on the side of caution.
Because human immune responses get depressed when your core body temp is colder. Or where there are large changes in external environments.
Just about the first defense mechanism that is triggered against infections is that the fluid temps in the body are raised. Bacteria and viruses usually have limited working temp ranges that they can thrive in. It also makes the flow of anti-bodies and other defenses move faster and increases the rate of production of t-cells.
The faster the external environment is at tearing body heat away, the harder it is to activate immune systems. But often it seems like changes in environment cause issues. You get adapted to the climate (I really noticed that when in Singapore in 2018)
So being in a warm office with less clothes on and going out into a cold, damp day? (office worker)
Or being cold all the time (poor person)
The measures being advised to reduce spread of covid-19 will probably also reduce the spread of flu, but it there's a vaccine for either you should get it. "Reduced" isn't the same as stopped, and if you end up catching one of them while sick with the other you could be in some serious shit.
I was wondering if that happens (getting two respiratory viruses at the same time). I've been assuming we don't because the immune system gets activated with the first one making a similar viral illness at the same time unlikely. But a bacterial infection might be more likely.
You can get it at the chemist
And increased hand washing will reduce other contagious diseases
We all went to work from home this week. I'd have to go to work to get a company flu-shot… I have done it once when the usual checkup was too late into flu season.
I'd have to go to the doctor for my usual flu-shot… And I have to go there every 3 months for a prescription.
I'm not that happy about going anywhere where other people are at present.
Is there any way that I can get a remote prescription for the heart meds and a virtual flu vaccine? 🙂
Health care workers are more worried about stress related illnesses and the people eating all their hoarded frozen pizzas…
Belt and braces I think.
Some anecdata – since working more from home and getting a regular flu shot. I haven't had flu for 5-10 years. Colds – yes, but fewer. Both vaccines and distancing work in their way. A relative is a nurse and hates winter because of the load of flu cases. If we can take some of that additional burden off our healthcare workers we owe it to them to try.
no.
Gosh! If we all stay abed for long enough we may even halt excessive greenhouse gas emissions and thus eliminate risk of undesirable climate changes. Now that would be a useful unanticipated consequence!
The Prime Minister is to give a statement to the nation at midday today.
The statement will be broadcast on RNZ and TVNZ.
Let's take a breath.
https://twitter.com/NewsroomNZ/status/1241125592562421761
that's live, so not much on the Newsroom page yet.
haha. I do feel for apartment dwellers in places in lock down.
Walk in closet 1 today, closet 2 tomorrow. Sorted.
I plan to go for a little drive every day. Dunno where but will work it out on the day. Have a wee stroll somewhere keeping two metres away from other wandering mortals. Perhaps the East Coast greeting as we pass. Mind you, that's dependent upon petrol still being available.
Oh dear, its a real worry.
Now that I cannot take the dance classes, and I try to limit the number of times I mw the lawns; I've ben working in the garage/workshop "Tidying" up and finishing off working on my 1957 R50 BMW motorbike. (It has quite a history having been originally bought in Pretoria South Africa, ridden up through Africa, around the Continent, down through the Middle East – as you could in those days – to India. Shipped to Perth WA and across the Nullabour to Melbourne and then shipped to Wellington where the original owner had had enough, and sold it, and I bought it in the middle '60's and have owned it ever since.)
But just these past few days I have been doing some baking each afternoon. Date loaf, scones, ginger nuts, tomorrow I plan Loch Katrine Cake.
There should be no shortage of petrol over the coming months – I see the price has been dropping over the past week here. Down to around $1.95 after discount.
Yes it is a worry. I do my shopping early morning or late evening if I can now and that avoids the mad rush. Here the shelves are starting to be replenished and they have extra stackers in during the day as well so the supply side is being addressed. If only the demand side would settle down to normal we would be ok.
I don't normally use my credit card for shopping here, but they have pay wave so you avoid contacting the eftpos touch pad. I have now joined the younger set, and wave my way through the checkout. 🙂
Oh you big skite. Reminds me of this fellow:
Damm won't work. try this one:
🙂 thanks for that.
I've started longing for the daily bike after 4 days without the week-day commute. Mostly electricity and a bit of muscle.
Examining logic
The Govt says we should not close schools now as the old people looking after the children maybe at risk. Did the media ever ask the questions, how many families did it really involve. Here are some views
All high school students and even intermediate students can be at home (whats that as percentage of total school children). If the have younger siblings they can look after them while their parents are at work. Other work arounds for the young ones can be achieved (are we not the number 8 wire gen).
For those families where grandparents are the only caregivers, their children would be best off at home as they would more likely be contaminated at school.
I'm shocked at the in ability of our media (to ask probing Qs) and Gov to not think outside the box. They have not acted quick enough or decisively enough. Please, we need more and better restrictions…..
Social distancing is not happening at schools. We should also shut all pubs, clubs etc
Tick, Tick, Tick, Tick…………..
To the people who have already stated, we need to go fast and hard and use Korea models, well done.
One of the best articles I have seen recommended by a top physicist:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
karl, you do know there is a plan re schools….schools will probably end up closing as we go through the different stages of the plan.
No school in the weekend, no school sports either and that's where we are at today, Saturday. We haven't got to Sunday yet and Monday is still two sleeps away.
The Government is poised to provide home internet and laptop or tablet devices for about 70,000 schoolchildren in the event that schools have to close due to coronavirus.
karl, do you have school aged children?
Yes Cinny, schools are indeed getting prepared to shut down, shit takes planning, and tomorrow there will be a new plan, and the next day a new plan etc … if people are that terrified of their kids being at school keep them home, my kids teachers are saying only half the kids are showing up anyway. Clean your hands, keep your distance, think for yourself.
"Clean your hands, keep your distance, think for yourself. "
Amen.
Why are we anxious about "children's education" in the face of a pandemic???
Providing laptops and tablets – pleeeease!
Spend some time with the trees.
Lmao!
Those not in the city be like…. stack the wood, dig over the garden, yes you can make dinner, come on kids let's clean the guttering, wipe out the cupboards, bike ride maybe?
Already making a list, going to call it part of the pandemic plan….kids can't argue with that 🙂
The tricky bit is, for some parents, if their kids have no school then the grandparents look after them. For some of those grandparents they are in the at risk category. And grandparents are usually ace when it comes to keeping kids off their devices 🙂
I am grandparent. I am not at risk. Give me grandchildren. They will sit in wheelbarrow – I will leg it. We will swim in estuary, there will be ice blocks, the day will pass. We will sleep well.
That should always happen![heart heart](https://cdn.ckeditor.com/4.11.3/full-all/plugins/smiley/images/heart.png)
Good link. Interesting time line.
In 5 days, China went from detecting a couple of cases of unusual pneumonia to alerting WHO; closed food markets within a week and had shut down 15 cities within the month.
And a week after all of that (Jan 30), WHO declared an international public health emergency.
Was talking with my sister yesterday evening. She lives in Scotland. Schools are shut for all but the children of "front line workers" and teachers. Special provisions have been put in place for them so they can still attend classes. And "working from home" measures have been put in place for those who can (she can't).
Meanwhile, all sporting venues and gyms have been shut, which I only mention because I thought it quite amusing that golf courses were included 🙂
This morning's headlines from the UK were around closing pubs etc.
Live stream of Ardern
Just watching the national address……..
Did NZ Inc really go hard and fast????? Really, man I must be on another planet.
I think we as a Nation are too chillaxed, the media are soooo average. From the outside looking in, the Gov and the media seem to form a little love bubble……
Risk = Probability x Consequence
We KNOW, that other countries are exploding at the moment (feed that into your probability above).
If you really do a risk analysis, would you not shut down the country?
What would YOU DO?
Unknowns (effects probability…… there are tooooo many):
1. Incubation period outliers (eg 24 days)
2. The spread by people who have no visible symptoms
3. The length of time the virus lives on various substrates
4. The real effect on younger people health
5. The number of people infected in NZ that we dont know about
6. Potential terrorist or otherwise purposeful transmission
7. The real social network spreading by schools and other gatherings
One of the best articles I have seen recommended by a top physicist:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
You talk about "unknowns", but don't seem to consider them.
A shutdown effectively means martial law (how are you proposing to enforce it?). Your #2 includes the entire population.
The number of casualties from shooting curfew-breakers would surpass Covid-19 in no time.
"If you really do a risk analysis, would you not shut down the country?"
You could, but you'd have to balance that with the damage done by a hard crash. If we have a pandemic that was killing 50% of the population I think that would have happened. The big issue here is to flatten the curve. Much of the high death rate is (probably) related to how fast and hard the virus hit and that was in countries that had different strategies to NZ.
edit, bearing in mind that this crisis will last a long time. This isn’t going to be over in a few months.
Fair point Weka, but would we not be better placed than everyone else if we get no spread.. We would be in a reallly good position economically etc
Whats ya thoughts
I really like this guy, he is on it: Michael Baker Prof of Public Health (hes on RNZ now),
I would suggest Jacinder listen to him. He is well spoken, educated and is evidenced based and willing to speak out. Please NZ Inc listen to this guy
yeah, he was good. I suspect we will go to Level 3 soon, someone on RNZ said it's likely once we get confirmation of community transmission.
I think alot of the debate is around whether NZ had the potential to have no community transmission ever. I'm not sure that that was ever possibly. If we had shut our borders absolutely, so not letting kiwis back in, and then locking up people with symptoms and people they'd been in contact with, that's probably beyond what we can cope with economically, logistically and socially. Maybe politically too.
"We would be in a really good position economically etc"
Even if we had no cases of Covid-19, we would have no influence whatsoever on the global economy. And we'd hardly be saying "We are virus-free, come visit NZ!".
So our position would be the same.
How do you know that the Government is not already receiving and considering this/his advice and integrating with all the other information it is receiving from all sorts of other sources and directions as well, not just medical? Absence of evidence (i.e. not doing exactly what you want and what Prof Baker is arguing) is not evidence of absence (i.e. the Government not taking on board everything but sticking its fingers in its ears).
"Shut down the country" comes at a huge cost, and not just an economic one. There's also the social cost of forcing isolation on people, and there's the political cost of depriving your voters of their liberty, which you won't do without a really fucking good reason if you want them to vote for you again.
So, what would have been gained from imposing martial law and depriving people of their liberty a few weeks ago? There isn't any keeping the virus out, there's only slowing it down so it doesn't overwhelm the health system, so it's not like we'd be spared the epidemic by such drastic measures. Where's the benefit?
As to the cost, look at the economic damage that's going to be wreaked just by the restrictions that have already been imposed. If those restrictions had been imposed a month earlier, we'd already have trashed the economy by now, for the sake of having a lower number of cases than the 50-odd we have now. Any government that thought that was a good cost/benefit ratio would be unfit to govern. Which is why the government is advised by experts in public health and epidemiology, rather than reckons from people on the Internet.
Just asking…how long has Ardern had the photo of Savage smiling paternally down over her left shoulder?
Since the monumental PR blunder of Back Then when they launched the dismal failure that was Kiwibuld and tried to pass off Kiwibuild as some modern day Savage inspired State Housing plan… you'd think they'd steer clear of having Our Leader channeling Savage.
It's wrong. And it undermines the Government's credibility.
Ardern and her government haven't earned the right yet.
Perhaps more of us should listen to the interview found over on The Daily Blog between Bryan Bruce and Susan St John.
😉
Yes, that's the big issue today. A photograph.
It's all about the messaging observer, all about the messaging.
The flag was there too. What's that about? I haven't seen any complaints about the colour of the clothes she was wearing and how she did her har. No doubt someone has complained. A headscarf would have been good for a laugh.
The state of the Nation speech took place in the Prime Minister's office Rosemary.
Jacinda Ardern is entitled to hang a picture of whoever she likes in her own office. The reason we have never seen it before is because it is very unusual for a PM to make a speech from the Office of the Prime Minister. It's normally off limits to members of the public and the media.
But these are extraordinary times requiring extraordinary measures.
Observer, Ha!!! I reckon.
The virus does not really care about the Govs alert levels and f*^&*ing Framework
Risk = Probability X Consequence
Use ya head….. Just the consequence alone is enough
New post up on Ardern's announcement
https://thestandard.org.nz/arderns-announcement-about-the-new-4-level-alert-system-for-coronavirus/
Michael Baker Prof of Public Health is wanting to get ahead of the game…
Good on ya
One of the best articles I have seen recommended by a top physicist:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
From your link karl……
Did you read it? Would love your opinion
The writer appears to have done much analysis of how other countries have/are handling the situation. Theres some interesting content there.
No doubt said piece is doing the rounds as the writer is a creator of viral applications, has a billion dollar company and the topical material has all the key words search engines would index. $$$$$$$
Anyways…. 🙂 This is how I see it… if communication is engaged then hopefully the virus won't get a grip here. Government, media, word of mouth, social media etc correctly informing people on what to do, keeping people updated and aware (rather than stressed and terrified – people can make bad choices when they are freaking out). Our government is doing a fantastic job making sure people are accurately informed.
China used an enormous ammount of military muscle to ensure people were doing as they were told, personally I found it a bit disturbing, but that's how China rolls. How about those Chinese celeb's feel good video to tone down the aspect of military force re the virus? Wowzers!
Am also rather skeptical of the numbers China has reported. Which makes me mindful of any virus anlaysis re Chinese data.
I'm full of praise for our government, the website https://covid19.govt.nz/ is brilliant.
This particular link https://covid19.govt.nz/help-and-advice/resources/ has allowed me to print out a stack of posters and plaster them all over our office window this morning. I encourage any one with a business or office with high foot traffic to do the same.
Here's the bizzare video, it's from over a month ago
For a 2min clip with english subtitles, go to 22.50 on this link
For the full video this link
When we go into phase 3, I suspect that we start using the police and the military to enforce as well.
There are always dickheads who really couldn't give a rats arse about others and who will recklessly endanger others. Personally I'd favour judge making orders, a prompt island quarantine for them with an armed guard detachment and kill orders. They can appeal after the emergency has diminished.
It is a far better choice than throwing them into an all-ready overcrowded prison system. I vaguely remember that all of that was all covered in the available civil emergency orders.
Incidentally, they should be looking to start releasing low risk and remand prisoners (if they haven't already). Reducing crowding in the prison system is the only way that they will suppress potential outbreaks there.
I read a chunk of that the other day. I think he's missing some important parts, and I'd like to see some informed critique of his position. He's not an epidemiologist nor a pandemic management expert.
I do agree that people need to be staying home now as much as possible. I've been more careful for the past fortnight.
Hi there Weka, yip agree with you on the stay at home thing
Michael Baker Prof of Public Health is on to it in terms of suggesting going harder than what the current Govt is doing. Just to support Michael:
Take for example the Flights landed into NZ at the airport on 18th March. This is just the tip of the iceberg (and this is just a sample of one airport in NZ)
If you take into consideration the list of unknowns I mentioned above (see post 9), like some people not having symptoms then factor it into the below……your ability to contact trace is shot to hell… Now include all the other international airports in NZ and the flights that came over the last few months……
Risk = Probability X Consequence
The flight information below is provided to Auckland Airport by the airlines,
[Deleted long list of flights with numbers and arrival times and replaced with link: https://www.aucklandairport.co.nz/flights – Incognito]
Please provide a link to the flight information from which you got that abbreviated sample as it is too long and does not contain pertinent info. I will delete or drastically shorten the list shortly but I’m happy to put in a link if you can provide one.
… not to mention the multiple repeats of the same flight, such as 6 repeats of QF153 and 4 of NZ124 …
Meanwhile, since the airport is the biggest source of transport noise at my place, I’m definitely lovin’ the reduced number of flights over the past week or two.
Cheers Andre, there are errors due to the speed with which the list was edited.
The point is to highlight….. there were soooooo many flights into NZ. The risk of infection is high with no way of tracing all social interations.
Andre, thanks….. example of too much coffee and not concentrating
The data has much more flights than that
two of your comments got caught in the filter, please check that your name and email address are the same every time.
it was the email address.
Hi Incognito
Thanks, I see your point, was just trying to hit home the point there were a lot of flights into NZ and we wont be able to trace all the social interactions.
The site is:
https://www.aucklandairport.co.nz/flights (they wont show the 18th as its now past)
It isn't that relevant as information unless you know the numbers of passengers and staff.
From what I understand, they’re only really letting NZ passport holders and the immediate family in (and being excessively zealous at that according to one report this morning (that I can’t find)).
Most of the aircraft are now coming in with limited passengers and, I suspect, mostly to pick up outgoing passengers from our tourists trapped here.
Re the flights used by people in NZ who have now been confirmed or are suspected of having the virus, the flight information in this list is probably far more relevant than the lists of overall flights in and out of certain airports on certain dates. .
https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-current-cases
The travel information in that list is just the base information being made public.
The highly sophisticated flight information systems (for both international and domestic flights) available to/used by airlines are capable of providing information for many other uses/agencies, including those of Interpol for example.  
I think that these systems are probably being used to identify flights, contact (transit, origin) points, dates, passenger lists etc relevant to persons who are confirmed or suspected of having coronavirus, not only in those in NZ but also those in other countries.
Ta
I will cut short your list (sorry) and replace with your link.
Next time, please think of the readers of TS who have to scroll through all of that space with next to useless info, particularly when one simple link will suffice.
Does anybody know if they will try installing public sanitising or hygiene stations in public, e.g. at the Entrances and Exits of supermarkets? The footwear cleaning hygiene stations in the Waitakere Ranges, for example, were only moderately successful because of compliance issues (i.e. people not using them or not using them correctly). However, these were not aimed at personal health and safety and there was control or close supervision.
All three supermarkets in my smallish Waikato town had stations dispensing hand wipes (alcohol based by the smell of it) as of a couple of days ago.
No idea if it is just a local initiative or nationwide.
Ta
Until yesterday the New World in my small Wairarapa town had a wipe dispenser at the door. It has been empty several times and was missing today. I asked a staff member who said people had been pulling out strings of them and they can't get any more. There's still a small sanitiser station at the main entrance, often hidden behind a raffle table and hard to spot as it's the same colour as the doorway.
I feel sorry for the frontline staff having to watch their efforts to help abused like this, they have been unfailingly cheerful patient heroes since this upheaval began.
I've been amazed at staff being so patient and helpful in various stores I've been dealing with. It's actually makes me feel better about how we're going to manage.
There are overseas distillers starting to make alcohol for hand sanitisers and making the sanitisers themselves. I've heard rumours of this in NZ too.
Re distillers moving to making hand sanitisers, I posted on this yesterday – and lived to regret it! LOL
Comment:Open mike 20/03/2020
Heh, I missed that thread.
Grey Lynn Countdown had them in this week (and possibly earlier).
They need signposting.
I applaud the BOP iwi Te Whanau-a- Apanui closing borders to outsiders.
In early February, if our leaders had “vision “ they would have closed NZs island borders and we could have lived fairly normal lives – without tourism!
But “In February it would have seemed unimaginable to close NZ borders to the world. “ according to our PM.
It was totally imaginable to me at that time.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12318689
[link added and quote tidied – weka]
Considering that most nz c19 cases are returning nz citizens shitting the boarders earlier wouldnt have much difference. Unless you're suggesting we dont let kiwis come home
we should have put them in isolation at the airport. Have the military set up camps, 14 days, two consecutive tests – and if these are negative you may be released into the larger public.
Having these guys come home and may or may not self isolate was the dumbest fucking thing ever.
but i have come to the conclusion that the more education people have the less they are able to think logically.
How many people have come into the country since the outbreak started in China? And all the people they had close contact with? I can't see how logistically it would have been possible to quarantine them all.
Those spelling mistakes were great 😀
You know you a potty mouth when your keyboard autocorrects to shitting .
Janet please provide a link when quoting, every time. Especially important right now with lots of information changing fast.
yep.
it was totally imaginable to us here in tourist land also, as no tourists arrived.
The few stragglers that came to freedom camp and the few boats – we could have done without them.
The saddest thing is, that there a people that desperatly want to stay home, take the kids out of school and just stay the fuck at home until this passes but they can't.
Has Labour cancelled the 12 week standdown for people who can't cope anymore and want to stay home and thus risk being fired?
Anyone?
the stand down for getting the dole was removed across the board a few weeks ago. You can look at the WINZ site to see if there are conditions on that.
good, if that women comes back in for a coffee i will let her know that. Cause she wants to stay home, she wants to take her kids out of school and is afraid that we ill get fired if she does so, and if that happens that she will be stood down by Winz. The only announcment of that that i saw was a few weeks ago, and i linked to the article where the PM stated that 'She was in principe for it".
And please Weka, can you link to your statement?
short version of what I posted below: mandatory stand down for all benefits is lifted until Nov. Stand down for leaving a job or getting fired is still in place, but I would expect there to be more leeway at the moment.
About 3/4 way down the page if you open all the thingies first.
https://www.workandincome.govt.nz/eligibility/emergencies/2020/coronavirus.html#null
Sorry, that doesn't answer your question. There's this,
There's quite a bit of discussion on twitter amongst beneficiaries and advocates about how to interpret policy now. There are lots of good reasons for leaving a job now that wouldn't have applied before. Also hearing various reports about how well WINZ is treating people. If someone is in this situation I'd check the policy wording then the legislation. If they're giving 13 week stand downs to people there will be support to go hard out on that, but also there still needs to be a good reason.
there is no need for a discussion about what that means. It states quite clearly that if you cause your loss of job or you leave your job because you can't cope anymore, you get a stand down period of 13 weeks,.
Good grief. Good fucking grief.
Sure, some people give up, others like to do the mahi of changing things. I have all respect for the people that force WINZ to change.
you can discuss this until the end of the day and feel like you are changing things.
as of now, people who would like to take their kids out of kindy and stay at home however will have a stand down period of 13weeks if they quit their job, and that is not the fault of Winz, but the current government who had done nothing to change the nature of Winz. The drones at Winz don't make the rules, the follow the orders that come down form the Ministry of Social Welfare.
But yeah, chatting on twitter is gonna change things. Sure sure.
You literally have no idea what you are talking about Sabine. There's a long history of changes at WINZ because of the mahi that beneficiaries and advocates do. Not everyone can do that, but your personal beliefs about what is not achievable won't stop other people getting on with it.
13 week stand downs are shit. I remember when they came in, and they're absolutlely a tool of neoliberalism to force a low wage workforce to keep the economy going. They're also part of bludger meme culture. They should have been removed a long time ago.
Things is, removing them entirely and suddenly as a stand alone policy during the start of a global emergency where people are shit scared is a recipe for chaos. One thing that would happen is that businesses that are already under huge pressure would suddenly find themselves short of workers. I'm thinking about work that is essential to society continuing to function that upholds wellbeing personal and collective.
Changing the criteria around them makes sense, and looking at the policy and law would be a way to understand how to do that. But hey, why bother when one can sit on the internet moaning about pretty much everything. I really hope people don't ask you about this because telling people that Labour are shit and that people can't do anything about their situation strikes me as the opposite of what is needed right now.
Weka,
i have as many and as much of an idea as to what to do with Winz then you do.
But, this thirteen week stand down period is government sanctioned, ordered, and implemented. And thus it is the current governments orders, aka the Labour/Green/NZfirst.
And this current government by emergency degree even could have abolished it so that people who can not cope anymore, who are afraid, who would like to stay at home with their children, could leave their jobs and do so.
In fact it would be the single smartest thing the Government could do now is to offer people unemployment benefits on demand if they only stay at home.
I don't know what type of news you get Weka, mine currently come from France, Italy, Germany, Poland, Holland and Belgium. All places where i have friends and family. I speak the languages, i can listen to their news, and you and this government have no fucking idea of the shit show that is gonna come. full stop.
You, I, Bill and all of us should stay at home, the borders should have been closed weeks ago, NZ residence should have been cited home weeks ago, our hospitals should have been put on Red fucking Alert weeks ago. And cruise ships should have been blocked from docking at least since January.
And we go to work, because this fucking useless government, this bullshit coalition of the most useless people i have ever come across in government is doing nothing to allow people to stay the fuck at home.
Its not only that the hospitals will be over run to the point that if you have a heart attack or a broken bone or a emergency cesarian you can't because there is no bed available, the nurses and doctors themselves are sick and dying – 14 doctors in Italy died alone. In the East of France nurses and doctors will die and the nurses and doctors know this.
This virus kills Weka. All ages. It kills.
So you can chat on twitter and so on and so forth in the hope of changing something some time, but this is different.
Bill is right when he said that all the Government has to do is send a weekly check to everyone for then next 12 odd weeks. It would allow many people to quit their jobs, take their kids out of school and stay the fuck at home.
this video under when you click on the link below is from italy for a Belgium TV, its in french, but i think you can understand it anyways.
https://www.facebook.com/joel.hasselin/videos/3898381010179814
Good employers are already telling their staff to stay home and allowing them to work from home or have special leave and so on. Shit employers are not.
I remember 9/11 and those workers who had previously left the building dying because they went back in as their shitty employers wouldn't pay them if they didn't.
Last thing we need right now is the coercive power of the state supporting those employers and people having to argue with WINZ that they had good cause to leave. People aren't stupid they still need money etc but there are many who have children with lung conditions or are vulnerable themselves and so on. They should have absolute freedom to choose. Have more faith in your fellow citizen – people won't just abandon their employment on a whim. FFS.
I'm not sure DoS. If the advice is 'leave your job if you want to and go on the dole', then there will be people who will do that because we are all afraid. Some won't be able to afford to but some will.
Obviously there will be people who need to and should be able to, hence my question about how WINZ are interpreting the policy atm.
I want my elderly parents' homehelp to stay in place. What's going to happen to them if their worker leaves her job this week? There will be a myriad of examples where conflicting needs and the public health good will clash. I'm more interested in looking at how that whole system works and needs to remain functional, rather than taking single parts of the system and hacking them out of panic.
(imo this is what the government is doing, looking at a range of intersecting systems and figuring out how to manage them all the best, understanding that none of them will be ideal).
If you can see a way to suddenly remove the 13 week stand down and keep working happening that is essential, I’d be interested. What you appear to be saying is we should rely solely on trusting people. I’m much more trust in god and tie up your camel.
It’s not a whim that will have more people leaving their jobs, it’s understandable fear, and some of that fear is not grounded in reality.
I don't think the 13 week standown will stop anyone leaving their job through fear. It will just make it more difficult for them to manage after leaving.
Some people go to work despite their anxiety – from what I'm seeing they are already seeing their anxiety ramping up. State coercion isn't needed right now. Compassion and understanding is, support by the employers to reduce their anxiety, knowing that if it all gets too much they will be supported may be more helpful in the long run.
It shouldn't be a competition between anxieties – staying at work and getting sick vs finishing work and having no income for 13 weeks.
In my review removing that 13 week stand-down worry should be a help not a hindrance – one less thing to worry about. It is only an exertion of state power to support the employer class after all.
Let me put it another way.
In the 1918 pandemic there were doctors who worked at the frontline and died. Then there were doctors who stayed away and did not and had thriving businesses after the pandemic was over.
Already some doctors are busier than they should be because others have limited their services/hours, etc.
Will the coercive power of the state be applied to doctors who withdraw their services or chemists who may do so. Will they get 13 weeks of no state subsidies?
Is coerciveness to be only applied to the people who can least afford to have the choices to withdraw their labour that the well-off have. The fact that many of those caring are Maori and Polynesian and are at greatest risk means we should think about this a little more carefully.
Hi, I totally respect peoples opinions about not going as hard as China, but would respectfully disagree.
Being too kind can be cruel as well. It reminds me of the lyrics…..by the FUGEES
Strumming my pain with his fingers
Singing my life with his words
Killing me softly with his song
Killing me softly with his song
Telling my whole life with his words
Killing me softly with his song
Remember the WHO advising that it was wrong to close boarders…..
You can take down entire countries with the wrong kind of kindness mindset, tough love maybe is what is needed. I agree with the way China has gone after the problem to a degree (I didnt see mass shootings or riots….). What do you think people on the standard, what would you do.
Check out whats happening in Europe and compare to China……. maybe NZ Inc is being too nice
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51982495
Many countries and regions took new measures on Friday, including:
The leadership in the USA and the UK has been seriously lacking. By any reasonable measure, they are significantly worse off.
I do understand your concerns, we're all worried – but the comparisons you're making aren't very helpful.
As for China, we simply don't know what has happened there because they have no free media. Of course we haven't seen trouble – who would be showing us? Western journos aren't wandering freely around Wuhan, any more than they can report the oppression of the Uyghurs.
there media in China is no more free nor less then ours.
they have state controllers we have advertiser controllers.
China has been excellent about this. The US however is shitshow that is created on purpose by the Shitter in Chief who would like to profit of a deadly crisis.
I doubt his brainrot would enable him to "coalesce" that thought
they have state controllers we have advertiser controllers.
And vested interests ready to spoon feed compliant stenographers – the RussiaGate b/s (charges against the IRA dropped btw), the Uyghur myth, the nonsense about Venezuela, Syria, Nicaragua, Iran…the list extends.
this might actually be good news.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/3/20/1929278/-BREAKING-Australia-Leads-the-Way-in-Developing-a-Vaccine-and-a-Cure-for-COVID-19?utm_campaign=trending
not holding my breath, but who knows.
Apparently, developing 'a vaccine' isn't really difficult. Getting one that works in the human body, and doesn't cause unforeseen complications (including magnifying the effects of a virus in the event of infection) – not so easy.
one step at a time.
not easy indeed.
Correct. It has to be safe and effective. This will take time, including testing on a reasonably large scale.
Don’t rush to deploy COVID-19 vaccines and drugs without sufficient safety guarantees
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00751-9
https://www.newsroom.co.nz/politics/2020/03/18/1087930/the-politics-of-the-covid-19-relief-package
"The increase in beneficiary payments makes economic sense for a number of reasons. First, those on low incomes are more likely to spend the increase, thus keeping consumption up. Second, in"
Good piece of analysis from Newsroom.
Less traffic, nearby gym and sports field quiet and no smoke from the sports bar this winter, tramping tracks and huts uncluttered, people planting veges, an end to workplace dysfunction, almost no suburban truck traffic on my AK route this morning. Big loss of value from retirement savings. Sink more piss and the wife smiles. Work from home in the garage with door open onto the garden. More likely to be dead soon – "old man's friend" and hopefully no big event funeral. I savour it all the more now, but anguish for the young – bless and keep them !!!!
Awww, isn't that sweet? Kaikoura residents unite to return confused baby birds to the sea
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/mar/20/taxi-endangered-new-zealand-seabirds-get-a-lift-to-safety-after-crash-landing-in-fog
"Caremongering" trend started in Canada, where the idea is for caring to become contagious. People are so good.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51915723
Thanks for the memories Kenny
Those were the golden days of music. Him + Dolly esp.
Reuben James & Ruby (don’t take your love to town) – two of Kenny’s best songs.
He will be missed
I like his earlier psychedelic rock stuff, I just dropped in (to see what condition my condition was in), brilliant.
Goodbye and farewell, Kenny Rogers.
The shadow on the wall tells me the sun is goin' down…
On another note we're getting some movies earlier than planned.
https://www.indiewire.com/feature/best-new-movies-digital-purchase-1202219469/