New Zealand has entered a new debt-fuelled phase of economic growth, say Westpac.
The bank is forecasting that “real” house prices will drop by 1.4 per cent in 2018.
Westpac said Kiwis were in a “borrow and spend” cycle that could not be sustained and it expected economic growth would also slow from 2018.
The report said the average household had debts equivalent to 162 per cent of their annual disposable income.
That was higher than the peak of 159 per cent reached in 2009 during the “global financial crisis” and had “completely reversed the reduction in debt levels seen over the last few years.
Russia and China buying hundreds of thousands of ounces of physical, delivered gold a month (as opposed to paper promises/paper options) is also a factor.
Budget coming up. My Nat contacts seem to be in the know and appear to be excited. No doubt the Budget will set the scene and strengthen campaigning that’ll start just under seven months. Last year, Labour didn’t put out an alternative Budget, maybe because Grant was still new and in his first year in the Finance portfolio. Hoping Labour will have a promising alternative Budget this year that’ll energise supporters.
i’d expect another solid increase in the minimum wage as well, as part of National’s early positioning. Them workers derserve their share of our successful economy you know.
Meanwhile, Labour have not yet concretely backed a move to the living wage $19/hr, and National will soon move the minimum wage to $15.75/hr is my bet.
I think they will just continue to cover the total Crown debt with a media headline of tax cuts to come.
The counter-narrative isn’t easy but the collective Opposition has to stick to theme of housing bubble, dairy decline, and a directionless country led by the corrupt and the cruel.
If I were Labour I would announce nothing at all. No need, and has no effect.
Key and English have set 2017 as theirs to lose and there’s very little this Opposition can do about it, other than let the pattern of NZ political history take over.
Temer has said he is prepared to make unpopular decisions because he does not intend to stand for re-election in 2018. He is barred from running due to previous electoral violations – and is so widely disliked that he would not stand a chance of winning even if he could.
“I do not need to practice gestures or actions leading to a possible re-election. I can even be – shall we say – unpopular as long as it produces benefits for the country. For me, that would be enough,” he told a local news program.
“· info)); French: blow of state; plural: coups d’état), also known simply as a coup, or an overthrow, is the sudden and forced seizure of a state, usually instigated by a small group of the existing government establishment to depose the established regime and replace it with a new ruling body.”
think you will find that coup d’etat is exactly the correct description ….and are you seriously going to try to suggest the instigators are not neoliberal given the policy outlined immediately they seized power?
Sobering isn’t it CV? Wonder why the Establishment doesn’t like Noam?
Here of course Bill manipulates the figures to make the books look better. But here Bill gets praise not impeachment.
NZ yearly GHG Emmission Inventory report. Some sober reading, esp the 25 yr perspective, but interesting too. It’s not just about the carbon, and bold pointers to where the most emissions are coming from (ag, transport)
Irrelevant tosh CV. New Zealand has a peculiar emissions foot-print among developed, high emitting nations, but seeing as how AGW is a global problem…
If the principle focus is put on land use, then concentrations of CO2 (or CO2e if you prefer) are going to keep increasing with an increase in surface temperatures tacking along behind.
Land use emissions need to be reduced – no argument from anyone there. Fossil emissions need to be eliminated altogether.
Question. If coal and other fossil hadn’t been adopted as primary sources of energy back in the mid to late 1800s and carbon neutral energy sources adopted instead, and if modern, industrial agriculture had developed to be exactly as it is today under that scenario, then would we be facing anything like the level of AGW that we’re currently faced with?
Answer. No.
Question. If modern industrial agriculture had developed in a different direction – if it had trod lightly and mindfully with regards environmental impacts – but fossil was still the principle source of energy, then would we be facing anything like the level of AGW that we are today?
So why are we not designing a GHG emissions limitation programme for NZ which is a unique fit with where we as a nation are doing the most climate change damage, instead of implementing a generic emissions limitation programme which is generically suited to the rest of the developed, high emitting world, and which ignores our own special characteristics?
Because it’s a global problem that will only be solved by eradicating the burning of fossil across the entire globe. It doesn’t matter what else NZ does with regards emissions (and yes, other stuff absolutely should be done) if the eradication of fossil is ignored.
You think NZ sits on another planet from the rest of the world or should promote itself as a ‘special case’ with regards fossil?
See, there are special cases, at least in the short term, with regards fossil CV – swathes of Asia and Africa. In the interests of the equity contained in all of the Accords or Agreements our government signed up to, those places that are developing nations get to use fossil for a little longer to lay in infrastructure (hospitals, energy systems etc) so that the people living in them can have reasonable lives in the future.
Then they (the Annex 2 countries) must be fossil free by 2050 if we (the entire global population) want to afford ourselves even a slim chance of achieving anything like merely two degrees of warming.
Bill, I’m not convinced that that No and Yes are quite as unequivocal as you’ve presented.
Yes, the headline figure is the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere, and the rise from 280ppm to 405ppm is almost entirely due to using fossil fuels, with a small contribution from burning forests, releasing carbon from soils and wetlands due to agriculture. But the important figure for warming on say a ten-year timescale is the CO2 equivalent. I’ve seen some credible estimates we’re as high as 700ppm CO2eq, driven primarily by methane. I haven’t seen credible breakdowns of how that rise in methane splits between domestic animals, land clearance, fracking/coal mining, warming arctic/seafloor releases, etc.
The way I’d put it is that CO2 releases from (really stupid) burning of fossil fuels gives us a long-term warming problem that’s going to be really difficult to correct. The releases of methane and other GHGs from (really stupid) unsustainable agricultural practices gives us a short-term warming problem that will largely go away within a few decades of ceasing the stupid practices.
You noted that in the “no fossil and same land use” scenario I didn’t suggest no AGW, but rather that the scale of AGW would not be the same, yes?
The overall effects arising from basket of GHG isn’t something I profess to understanding. I think it’s fair to say that nobody quite gets it because of the convoluted interactions of positive and negative forcings involved.
In one of Kevin Anderson’s presentations, he suggests that the positive and negative forcings are as close as damn it to cancelling one another out, and so that on current concentrations, if we want a workable picture of what the hell is going on, we can put them to one side and focus on CO2. I don’t know if that’s a reasonable way to view things but I’m not aware of that approach having been taken to task on the grounds it’s either unrealistic or irresponsible.
Methane breaks down into CO2 btw. So after the 20 or 30 years of it having a x20 or x30 impact on warming, it doesn’t just stop, but breaks down to produce a given volume of CO2 that has a lesser but much longer impact.
I took your two scenarios to be “fossil fuels burned, no increase in land-use emissions” which would be 400ppm CO2, wild guess 500ppm CO2eq including fracking/mining emissions, vs “no fossil fuels, changed agricultural land-use” which would be 280ppm CO2, wild guess 450ppm CO2eq from the added methane from domestic animals, draining wetlands etc. Not a huge difference between the two (but both nowhere near as bad as what we’re actually facing). But the “no fossil fuels” scenario has the potential to revert to 280ppm CO2/300ish CO2eq within a few decades if ag emissions stopped, whereas the 400ppm CO2 will take millennia to drop back.
Yes, well aware that CH4 oxidises to CO2 in the atmosphere with a half-life of 8-ish years. And that a molecule of CH4 has a warming effect over a hundred times stronger than a molecule of CO2. The 80x stronger over 20 years or 20x stronger over 100 years figures are the integrated “warming strength x probability of survival” calculations. Which highlights that methane’s effects happen now but mostly tail off relatively quickly, whereas CO2 is effectively forever.
Don’t forget about atmospheric pollution contributing between 1 deg C to 2 deg C worth of “global dimming” to the planet.
A massive cut in the burning of fossil fuels leading to a big drop in atmospheric pollution will immediately send us into 2.5 deg C to 3.5 deg C of warming.
Ahhhh, OK, so typing this, whoops it looks to me like we’re now officially fucked regardless of which way we turn, i.e. whether or not we cut fossil fuel emissions by 0%, by 50% or by 100%.
Global dimming due to atmospheric pollution is currently providing 1 deg C to 2 deg C of cooling to the world. AFAIK that is the state of the art understanding of the phenomenon.
Oh, I know there’s a cooling effect offered by particulates from burning coal for example. (you stated it was 1 – 2 degrees C worth) Then you gleefully stated an immediate 2.5 – 3 degree C of warming would result from not burning fossil. I asked for a verifiable source that would echo or back those numbers.
Do you have a source that says all ‘dimming’ is the result of fossil fuel combustion…cause that’s what you’re claiming.
The dimming observed over recent decades is due to atmospheric pollutants. Whether all those atmospheric pollutants are a result of fossil fuel combustion – I have no idea.
Alternatively, do you have a source that says all fossil related ‘dimming’ amounts to a one or two degrees Celsius suppression of temperatures?
All I know is that the best guess for total global dimming is that it sits between one degree and two degree Celsius.
You already know how I read all of this. We’re already well past 2 deg C warming, any way that we turn now.
I can’t quite see why you reckon there would only be a difference of 50ppm CO2e in the two scenarios.
I’d suggest that if we hadn’t burned fossil, but somehow arrived at the same land use pattern as today then yes, there’d be some signs of warming…. if anyone bothered to look for it. (ie, it would be more or inconsequential at this stage). And we’d have hundreds and hundreds of years in which to change our land use patterns and avert any noticeable climatic impact from any potential long term warming we were causing.
Because our agricultural land-use patterns of draining wetlands, clearing forests, growing shallow rooted annuals (instead of deep-rooted perennials), choosing ruminant species for livestock, all contribute to putting a lot of methane into the atmosphere. On an ongoing basis.
I’ve seen a few credible papers that suggest that without the global warming due to pre-industrial farming, the late 1800s climate we now take as a pre-industrial baseline would likely have been closer to the “little ice age” of the 1600s. (No, I’m not getting confused with the popular press misrepresentations of the 70s that “an ice age is coming, get prepared”).
But even taking that as read for the sake of argument (that the climate of the 1800s was already warmer due to land use), how do you get the point whereby you more or less equate current land use emissions to fossil related emissions? (in your ppm CO2e numbers)
If today has an atmospheric CO2e of around 550ppm (I don’t think that’s too far off the mark, but haven’t looked it up), then to get a very rough estimate of land use contributions, we’d subtract the 80% of CO2 that comes from fossil and then we’d subtract all the other GHG that come from coal burning and what not to arrive at a figure for land use.
On the other side of the coin, we’d take the 550ppm CO2e and subtract some agreed portion of the 20% of CO2 that comes from land use (there would always be some GHG from land use no matter what) and we’d also subtract whatever proportion of the other GHGs that come from land use.
The first calculation might look something like 550 – 80 – 80 (is assuming similar proportions by source, and so up towards ~ 80% of GHG from fossil way too high?) = 410ppmCO2e
The second might run approximately somewhere like 550 – 20 – 20 = 510ppmCO2e.
So I’m getting somewhere in the region of a 100ppm difference to your 50ppm difference. Regardless, the claim that the interplay of the forcings from GHG – other than CO2 – more or less negate one another, if a reasonable claim, makes all these rough back of the envelope sums irrelevant. And we both pick fossil as the principle driver of AGW.
So Ag is by far the biggest contributor of GHGs, more than 20% bigger than transport which is no. 2.
You may not like some of the “vegan propaganda” in Cowspiracy but it appears that they have a point, does it not.
It’s an interesting question CV. I guess for me it rests on whether we consider propaganda to be a useful tool in addressing climate change. By propaganda I mean basing one’s argument on ideology but not being upfront about that, and using misleading facts and arguments that push that underlying ideology. At its worst, Cowspiracy looks like its using CC to try and convert society to being vegan. If this wasn’t about ideology, the message would be very different (eat less meat/dairy, eat local, support small growers etc. You can’t argue that if you are a fundamentalist, evangelical vegan though).
I have no problem with someone being vegan. Nor with the idea that developped countries should be eating less meat and dairy because of AGW. But there is a huge difference between eating less meat/dairy and becoming vegan. I’m not convinced that proselytising veganism is a useful strategy. Most people aren’t going to do well on a vegan diet, so how would they be convinced to stay on it for any length of time? (plus all the other arguments I’m sure you’ve heard me make).
I also think there are serious problems with using misleading facts and arguments to try and shift culture. When people find out, they’re going to be angry.
In relation to the report, most of the increase in emissions in the last 25 years is from industrialised dairy (enteric gases, fertiliser use). I think we establised the other day that most milk grown in NZ is exported, so basically NZ is producing emissions to make money. Nothing to do with feeding ourselves. NZ doesn’t have to become vegan in order to reduce those emissions again.
Pretty sure you know my base argument is that it’s not what you grow (or eat) it’s how you do it that matters. The problem with vegan proselytising is that it traps people into a path that isn’t necessarily going to help us in the long run. We need to be reducing food miles far more than becoming vegan. We need conversions to sustainable agriculture far more than we need conversions to veganism. In NZ a vegan diet is generally an industrially produced, imported one, and it relies on the Monsanto-ed monocropping nightmare that destroys soil and emits carbon. I’d prefer to encourage people to eat local, eat seasonal, reduce meat/dairy consumption, increase veges, and prioritise small growers esp regenag ones. All of those things bring multiple benefits that becoming vegan doesn’t. They’re much more achieveable for NZ too.
“I’m fascinated that you think that this is a discussion on becoming vegan.”
I don’t. You are the one that specifically asked me about a film made by vegans and promoting veganism as a way of reducing GHG emissions. I took your question in good faith.
Here’s what you said in its entirety,
So Ag is by far the biggest contributor of GHGs, more than 20% bigger than transport which is no. 2.
You may not like some of the “vegan propaganda” in Cowspiracy but it appears that they have a point, does it not.
“This is a discussion on addressing the fact that in NZ, agriculture generates a lot more GHGs than transport does, and it is the no 1 source of GHGs.”
I posted a link to the NZ report, which is about a lot of things. You responded by asking me about a vegan film and NZ’s agricultural emissions. If you wanted to limit the conversation to NZ ag, then maybe you could have been clearer in your question.
tbh, I have no idea what you are doing. If you look at my last comment, I talked about a lot more than veganism so you could easily just clarify that that’s not what you meant and then focussed on the other things. Instead you appear to be trying to have a go at me. Not in the mood for a fight today. Really happy to share my ideas on what NZ could or should do to reduce ag GHG emissions though.
“Modern” agriculture and fossil fuel use go hand in hand because the adoption of those ‘cultures’ springs from the same source; producing more than the producer can eat at point source. Build a grain silo, Buzz, and you’re on your way to 400 ppm and beyond!
” Build a grain silo, Buzz, and you’re on your way to 400 ppm and beyond!”
I guess that could be extrapolated to be accurate but note that the ancients had grain silos and farmed for excess (for the obvious reasons) and C ppm didn’t move until industrial revolution…along with population explosion.
we could equally say develop speech and have an opposable thumb and your on your way to 400 ppm and beyond
Pat – speech and an opposable thumb don’t lead to the creation of silo-guards charged with the protection of stored wealth, nor the need to pay those guards to do their job. Many communities consisting humans that could talk and hold a feather to the light didn’t go down the agricultural path, but instead, trod more delicately on the bosom of their Mother. Farming for excess was not a necessity, it was a choice. The wrong choice, it turns out.’cause, fossil fuels.
and which lifestyle choice became dominant , almost exclusive?
Humans are dominant as they are the most successful manipulators…we manipulate items, we manipulate the environment, we manipulate ourselves and each other….and those most skilled of us at this are deemed successful.
The silo-builders won dominance and are still holding that position as we approach Farmergeddon. That doesn’t sound like a win to me. “The most skilled at this are deemed successful”, indeed, deemed as such by the members of their tribe but regarded as pariah by those who are outside of that culture.
Do you, Pat, believe the environment has been skillfully manipulated, given its present state and outlook?
Well, when your ‘manipulation’ involves guns and visiting ‘total war’ on cultures and societies that may have neither guns nor an appetite for ‘total war’…then sure, ‘your’ way becomes successful 😉
When we cunningly manipulate materials to come up with stuff like diesel engines and then, in short order, re-design them to run on fossil fuel while knowing full well the physics behind fossil fuel combustion (the CO2)…is that even intelligent, never mind successful?
There’s smart stuff and cunning stuff, but wa-aa-a-y over there on the other hand, there’s intelligent stuff.
As to intelligent (or wise) ..I imagine those of our ancestors who founded the worlds various religions were considered wise and intelligent in their time…..little did they know how that would turn out I suspect.
Well, maybe I should have said ‘European civilisation’ instead of the collective ‘your’, seeing as how I was thinking of colonisation when making the comment.
As for religion…yes, I think you’re probably right to say that they were considered wise and what not. Whether the saw themselves that way, or laughed up their sleeves at the very thought of it as they got on with plotting and scheming over how to better accrue more privilege and wealth….
At every point in the humanity’s progress through time there have been humans saying tai hoa to the progress of the “dominant manipulators” (call them what you will). This message is not new, it’s been delivered multiple times, to little effect, until now. ’cause climate change/species extinction/acidic oceans te mea te mea.
We’re agreed on the need for a new one – good.
That “they’ll” fight is of no consequence, we have no choice but to put 100% of our energies into it. Ditto being maybe “too late”, that “maybe” is all the hope we need. That’s how great challenges are overcome, discounting the opposition and wasting no time.
I’m not preaching optimism here, just the pragmatism required to succeed.
Imagine if…we simply stopped following people and followed ideas instead.
Overnight, this model we have, and all possible variations of this model we have, and all the people who head all the institutions that would defend this model we have, or justify this model we have, and all the people who would hope to exploit or manipulate this model we have – all of that would be gone.
Wouldn’t that be a fine thing?
No bad ideas or dodgy ideas getting forced by someone wielding the delightful instruments of persuasion, such as, the whip or the chain or the gun.
If we only followed ideas, then no-one could ever hope to be followed or ‘lifted up’ by associating themselves with an idea, or by forcing the adoption of an idea.
“That’s how great challenges are overcome, discounting the opposition and wasting no time.
I’m not preaching optimism here, just the pragmatism required to succeed.”
that’s the plan….and hope springs eternal….except when it dosn’t
So if Hope was all that was left inside Pandora’s Box, then what, do you think, was it within Pandora’s Box that created all the despair in the first place…springing eternal an all an all 😉
There was nothing good in Pandora’s Box. Just all the evil (or despair) of the world.
Which ideas? Why, the good ones of course! Okay – very broad brush stroke…
…principally ideas that flourish and that are rooted deep within concepts of meaningful democracy. Ideas, sans illegitimate authority, tend to spread rhizomatically. And ideas that need to be forcibly transplanted or grafted are probably just bad ideas…
…and I’m over trying to work this on a nature angle
Good ideas are those ideas generated by you and your community, that affect you and your community, and that you and your community execute. (note: assume the community to be an elastic and ever changing social entity.)
Bad ideas are those that are imposed from the outside and that disempower those who will be affected.
Ideas that come with a person attached in a way that the person is then afforded authority, are bad ideas. Always. History keeps trying to teach us that lesson and we keep ‘just not getting it’ for some reason.
edit – when I say ‘authority’ I’m referring to permanent, institutional or entrenched authority, not the transient authority that the builder’s knowledge may give the builder on aspects of a building project.
Nothing good in Pandora’s box, Bill?
There was hope for starters.
Those ills you list were already in the world. What was really in Pandora’s box were endless possibilities, some of which represented wise choices for Mankind, others which were disastrous. Once we opened the box and began choosing this and that, our future was determined by those choices. But always, there was hope. Good and bad doesn’t come into it. It’s difficult to converse without using those words, but attempting to is a worthwhile exercise when exploring this topic (the most important topic of all, in my view). There is a dichotomy that is useful though, and that’s life-giving (pro-biotic) and life-taking (anti-biotic). Addressing challenges probiotically gives different results from when antibiotic actions are applied. Adding.v.taking away. Racism in a bi-racial community? Remove one of the parties or bring in a multitude of races to diminish-to-zero the conflict. One dominant ideology creating imbalance and injustice in a community/country/world? Bring in a multitude of ideologies to occupy space being held by the Dominator. Other polarities that are useful models for our new way(s): multiplicity.v.singularity – keep it multitudinous, avoid over-simplification – polyculture.v.monoculture. There’s much more to this, naturally enough, but those starters might stimulate some interest. I apologise for not using the model you offered, I enjoyed reading your comment and agree with your view.
weka, producing less meat and dairy is what I was aiming at in terms of significantly reducing both global and NZ ag GHG emissions, who knows what world you live in though where that necessarily means people becoming vegan.
BTW if you can’t watch something like Cowspiracy or read something like the Bible and not get some value out of it without having to convert to whatever their proselytizing about, that’s not my issue its yours.
For the record again, I’m never becoming vegan, good luck to those who do.
edit – you are full of good ideas and insights that I often learn from, but having discussions with you nowadays is full of fucking minefields and who needs it, thanks.
I’ll just repeat, the only reason I’ve said anything about vegans is because you brought up Cowspiracy and asked me specifically if I thought the film had a point. I answered in good faith 🙂 Personally, I don’t think the vegan issue is particularly relevant to the discussion. It only comes up as a political issue when people use it as a reference point in CC discussions. The meme that is developping around the film is IMO dangerous, which is why I tend to respond in the way I do about it.
“producing less meat and dairy is what I was aiming at in terms of significantly reducing both global and NZ ag GHG emissions,”
I guess there’s an issue there about who is responsible for the dairying GHG emissions, us or the people buying and consuming the products (I think it’s us). My general approach to CC is think global, act local. So we need to think about CC in its global context (because of the obvious), but that we have pretty limited control over other nations and peoples. We can instead act locally, find the solutions that work here, share them with other people, learn from other people , do the politically responsible things (foreign aid, lobbying etc), but let other countries and peoples find their own solutions.
Maybe as well as reducing our GHG emissions, reducing dairying is a service to the rest of the world, both in terms of limiting the supply of meat/dairy, and in demonstrating that a country this size can make a living without polluting. That’s at an ideas level obviously, it’s not like anyone in power is even considering lowering dairying (apart from the Greens). Mostly I think one job at the moment is to initiate discussion of other ways.
That’s why for a number of years I’ve been making comments about regenag (and a post coming soon). It’s technically feasible for NZ to convert its farming to something sustainable right now, there are enough farmers here who have pioneered the techniques. I don’t believe the solution to NZ’s GHG emissions is BAU and GE ryegrass.
As ever it’s the lack of political and public will that’s the problem. Nevertheless there are people who are continuing to do the right thing and if NZ does get it’s act together politically I can see agriculture here changing quite fast.
This article claims that Sandersism has won, whether Bernie wins the nomination or not. The writer might be a bit too optimistic, but the Sanders movement has at least exposed business-as-usual for what it is and is seriously aiming a stake at TINA’s vampire heart.
Hopeful Olwyn? “The Democratic Party as the Clintons remade it in the 1990s is dead, and the most Clinton can do is steer her little ghost-ship a few more miles until it finally wrecks itself on an offshore sandbar.
Clinton may win the battle in 2016, but only political neophytes — and a few Washington Post columnists, I suppose — fail to see that she’s already lost the war.”
I am always a bit cautious in my optimism 🙂 – look at what is happening in Brazil, for instance. I am confident that the third-way left have lost whatever credibility they may have had, but am also aware of how well-resourced and determined the TINA gang are.
If the Labour Party operated on a ‘one person one vote’ basis, then I’d be inclined to suggest it would already have happened and that Cunliffe would likely still be the leader of the Labour Party. Just look at how UK Labour is changing under Corbyn with their ‘one person one vote’ system – caucus, for all their antipathy towards him and his politics, can’t touch him.
Unfortunately for us in NZ, with a system that allows a caucus 40% of the vote and the unions 15% of the vote…okay, would Corbyn still be leading the UK Labour Party under NZs set up?
I don’t know the numbers and I’m not about to go away and crunch them. But suffice to say I have my doubts.
Based on what I’ve heard from members, I can, but it might be a while.
The Labour caucus and the moderating committee is now largely under the control of the following factions:
1) the “young” careerists, typically 45 and under
2) the right wing, typically 45 plus
The fucked/zero leverage factions are the pro-Cunliffe, formerly pro-Cunliffe, and left wing. I estimate that together they now represent around, or less than, 25% of caucus.
Notice how Little has no faction in caucus to call his own, but he does have affiliate muscle behind him.
Now, IMO Labour has two more General Elections left in it. If it loses both of them (2017 and 2020) it will permanently slide into minor party status (sub 20%).
My call for 2017 is Labour 25% (=2014) +/-3%, with a negative outlook. Labour is unlikely to take the Treasury benches on those numbers.
So the question is – does your comment “but it might be quite a while” suggest a time frame before 2020, or a timeframe after 2020.
Instead, they believe that appealing to the centrist middle class swing voter because they are the ones who decide election outcomes is what they need to do.
@ CV: They need to remember that Key did not win any elections by dumping his core constituency and replacing it with a middle class one – instead he (or Brash before him) consolidated his wealthy, right wing constituency and worked to add the middle class to what he already had.
Right Faction
1 Shearer
2 Goff (retiring)
3 King (possibly retiring)
4 Davis
5 Parker
6 Nash
7 Cosgrove (retiring)
8 O’Connor
9 Fa’afoi
Young Careerists Faction
1 Robertson
2 Hipkins
3 Ardern
4 Twyford
5 Curran
6 Clark
7 Mallard (or should he be in Right Faction ?)
8 Woods (or Left ?)
9 Dyson (or Left ?)
Approx 85% accurate. A very good job mate. A few of the line calls. Tirikatene and Fa’foi I would place in the careerist camp. Sepuloni former Cunliffe camp. Mallard definitely right. I have my suspicions on some of the newer MPs in the not sure camp but we will let them show their hand a bit more clearly first. Woods careerist, Dyson more left I think.
Oh, someone just mentioned to me that we could actually introduce one full additional category – the ‘hasbeens, never will be’s and incompetents’. A few names would instantly slide out of where they sit now into that new category.
Also swordfish, you may find it interesting to asterisk* the list MPs separately, and to reflect on how they are feeling about life and their political job security in general.
Sepuloni is Left. I wouldn’t describe Twyford , Woods or Dyson as “young careerists”. Especially Dyson. She’s in the twilight of her parliamentary career now.
King is on record as having said she’s definitely standing again but as a list MP. A nice way to hand over the seat to Little? Both Woods and Dyson are more centre Left than right. In the “not sure”category I think most would fall into the centre Left category too.
As Crown Treaty negotiations with Moriori hit the mainstream media all sorts of old myths and prejudices are oozing out of the Kiwi public. Any Crown settlement with Moriori needs to include not only massive land transfers but a sustained public education campaign: http://readingthemaps.blogspot.co.nz/2016/05/moriori-history-and-treaty-politics.html
Pretty sure that Moriori know a hell of a lot more about themselves as a people than non-Moriori know. They’re hardly blind. That might be a good place to start.
More than $15,000 has been donated to murdered woman’s Blessie Gotingco’s family, only hours after they announced that they want to hold the Government accountable.
The comment by Collins on the news re the killing that really struck me was
“Oh well he was always going to kill again”
What was implied was what the f**k could I/we do about.
There is so much pissing around today in Government..
Just frikkin’ get on and build some housing.. stop talking about it and do it. Get some Crown land, design some low-cost housing, and build it. Should take 12 months maximum….
….. but oh no, can’t do that, must go through “process”, must write reports, must set up committee, must not make decision, must find Minister to make decision, Minister must not make decision without “process”, report, recommendation
this lot are bloody useless
public bodies today are bloody useless
cut through the shit why don’t you. Engage an architect and builder on Monday and get into it…
the incompetence would be funny were it not so serious
and even more funny is that despite National parading themselves as an action government, the history shows (and would certainly be repeated) that it is Labour that would get something like this done much quicker and better
‘A sustained public education programme teaching what?’
Moriori history. Follow the link. Michael King’s Moriori: a people rediscovered is a good lengthier introduction.
‘There is a huge amount yet to be discovered, let alone be certain enough to begin an “education programme”.
Moriori and the scores of scholars who’ve investigated their history disagree.
‘pre-maori (pre-1300’s approx.) New Zealand’
You think the ancestors of Maori got here in the fourteenth century? There are dozens of radiocarbon results for artefacts and sites older than that. Wairau Bar was inhabited in the twelfth century, at least.
It will be interesting to see what history and archaeology discovers in the next 100 years.
I am picking multiple peoples from much further back. I pick this for most of the last parts of the planet to supposedly be inhabited, not just our islands. I am picking several waves of human-type species migrating out of Africa (and/or Asia), yet to be discovered. Anthropology is a very young science, making new discoveries at a fast clip and accelerating. On the threshold of vast new human discoveries methinks …
Assuming we have full and complete knowledge today in 2016 is, well, just silly. See previous history scholars and their past findings cf todays knowledge, in evidence.
Unfortunately though this area of our history gets all tied up in today’s politics to see anything clearly. As you highlight.
it is interesting – this argument will continue neverendingly imo – too much resting on the right and wrong, too must vesting and investing on it – and that is just the celtic/chinese/giants/alien/egyptian/anyoneexceptMāori settlers before Māori line 🙂
‘Assuming we have full and complete knowledge today in 2016 is, well, just silly’
Nobody assumes that. What’s silly is to assert that because everything about the past isn’t known nothing can be said about the past. We know, thanks to the work of dozens of scholars, that Moriori were a Polynesian people closely related but distinct from Maori, that they lived in isolation for centuries on the Chathams, that they evolved, over time, an egalitarian and pacifist culture, that they were invaded in 1835, and that the stories created about them by nineteenth century Pakeha and still widely believed by Pakeha are false.
‘I am picking multiple peoples from much further back [settled NZ].’
The trouble is that, despite the efforts of advocates of Celtic and Viking and Atlantean settlement conspiracy theories, evidence is rather thin on the ground. The absence of artefacts and skeletons under the tephra from the Taupo eruptions and the analysis of ancient pollen spores suggests that humans were not living in NZ in any numbers more than a thousand years ago. If the conspiracy theorists were right and an ancient civilisation existed here then we’d expect to find all sorts of stuff under the tephra, as well as evidence from pollen spores and other sources of the presence of rats and the clearance of forests in ancient times.
Re your last paragraph, noted and aware. “conspiracy theorists” and “ancient civilisations” are terms not conducive to considered thought and debate, but merely rhetoric designed to denigrate. Let’s put those terms to one side..
Sure, evidence is thin on the ground – but as I said, this is a very young science, especially in NZ. There is some evidence, as you note. As more time passes and more digs completed then more will become apparent.
Tell me I am curious – what is your view of Maori history which itself tells of various and numerous people already living here when they arrived?
But a new transport strategy will consider whether mobile devices could actually help to make our roads safer.
The Safer Journeys Strategy is calling for a review of legislation by the end of the year to identify “unnecessary barriers” to the use of technology, including accessing road safety information safely on mobile devices in vehicles.
The strategy aims for increased use of emerging technology to enable smart and safe choices on the road, reduce unintended errors and increase compliance.
Well, that’s the stated reason. It’s all bollocks of course. If you take people’s attention away from the road while they’re driving then the chances of them having an accident go up.
The real reason is this:
A 2009 law change made it illegal to use phones behind the wheel, and police have since raked in millions of dollars in fines.
I assume some rich person somewhere got fined for breaking the law and complained to National about it. And now the attacks on it just being a revenue gatherer for police are coming out.
‘“conspiracy theorists” and “ancient civilisations” are terms not conducive to considered thought and debate’
In my experience the proponents of claims that non-Polynesians settled NZ thousands of years ago are all motivated at least in part by a far right political agenda, engage in conspiracy theories to try to account for the lack of evidence for their claims, and lack any training in a relevant discipline. In the piece for SRB I linked to earlier I tried to show the neo-Nazi connections of the most high profile proponents of ancient civilisations theory.
‘Sure, evidence is thin on the ground’
Evidence is non-existent, which is why the likes of Martin Doutre and Kerry Bolton have to resort to claims that a vast conspiracy is suppressing evidence.
‘There is some evidence, as you note. As more time passes and more digs completed then more will become apparent.’
There have been thousands of digs around NZ, extensive analysis of environmental evidence like spollen spores, tests of human and rat DNA, and no evidence at all has been found for a pre-Polynesian civilisation. There simply isn’t anything under the tephra left by even the most recent Taupo eruption, which means that humans simply couldn’t have been here thousands of years ago in any numbers.
What’s interesting is the desire of so many Pakeha to believe in something for which we have no evidence.
‘what is your view of Maori history which itself tells of various and numerous people already living here when they arrived?’
There is no single Maori oral history: each iwi has multiple versions of its past, and each is more akin to the oral epics of ancient Greece than to what we understand as history today. Just as we wouldn’t take Homer’s talk of sirens and a cyclops literally, so we shouldn’t take legends of taniwha, fairy folk, hairy men of the bush, kehua, and so on literally.
In my own research I’ve found that even in the twentieth century memories of events got tangled and confused in just a few years.
I don’t get it – you suggest Maori history should be discounted yet use Moriori history in support of a view.. how does that work?
Also this “What’s interesting is the desire of so many Pakeha to believe in something for which we have no evidence. ” – that is not interesting at all. That smacks of the “politics of today” confusing the picture, as mentioned before. Plays no part except in the minds of those with vested interests. Not interested.
. . . . .
Unfortunately I don’t have the time to bat back and forth today. However, when it comes to tales of “fairy folk, tall people, fair-skinned people etc” you do realise those same tales exist in other parts of the globe yes? You don’t think there might be something to them? Like perhaps there were other people around? An earlier species of human out of Africa perhaps? Such as the red deer cave people perhaps https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Deer_Cave_people ?
When do you imagine the last Neanderthal died RTM? Have we found the last one to die?
When did the last mammoth die?
The certainty in your points RTM is not accepted.
This entire area of human history is so very far from certain. It is fascinating. It is also in the very very close past (last mammoth died about 3,000 years ago, and I would suggest the last Neanderthals were around that time too… like yesterday, leading to the legends of yetis and the like). Do you know if Neanderthals ever made it to NZ? Or those other species of human? You do realise we have the worst lands on the planet for preservation of early peoples, with our pluviality and flora growth rates, not to mention erosion and coastal retreat.
“Do you know if Neanderthals ever made it to NZ? ”
Does the quality of thinking on our current right-wing blogs constitute evidence? Has it been established that Neanderthals were expert navigators and sailors like those other cultures who settled here?
This is an excerpt from the petition. I’m sure that all thoughtful people will agree with the statement. The petition is aiming for 6000 and nearly there so give it a push in the right direction.
Why is this important?
When people are in desperate need, Winz loan people money so they can rent out a motel room as emergency housing. [1] People then have to repay the debt, and many say that is just not possible.
This is a ridiculous and inhumane policy in effect locking people who are already in such dire straits that they are homeless, into further debt.
Furthermore, it does nothing to solve the housing crisis and is open to exploitation by the Motel owners, and the people themselves have little choice but to agree.
In some cases, providing the people travelling have a current passport, it maybe cheaper for them to go overseas to visit family or a travel package until a house is made available. Travel insurance would be required. At least a trip would be a stress braker.
People have been financed by the government to travel to Australia for cancer treatment.
It would not surprise me that people are so pushed over the edge that they may contemplate the unthinkable. (It is fine if this comment is removed).
I beg to differ, vto: I think the attitude you represent is interesting, because in my experience it is widespread amongst Pakeha.
You haven’t spent much time thinking about the history of these islands’ Polynesian inhabitants and their ancestors in the tropical Pacific, but you have a very strong desire to believe in an ancient civilisation that is extremely unlikely to have existed here. You combine, in other words, a lack of interest in the real history of this part of the world with a fascination with a fantasy history. I think that this combination of incuriosity and fantastic yearning is a symptom of the fact that many Pakeha still don’t feel entirely at home down here in New Zealand. It reflects a sort of unease that I think some of our finest poets and artists diagnose.
‘you suggest Maori history should be discounted yet use Moriori history in support of a view’
I’ve been talking about the understanding of the history of Moriori that has been built up out of hard evidence – artefacts excavated, words analysed, skeletons studied, old texts recovered and interpreted and so on – not about old legends taken at face value. Legends about ancient events have to be taken very carefully, especially when they are full of supernatural events.
If you want to use the various legends of iwi as evidence for a pre-Maori civilisation, because some of these legends include stories of pale-skinned fairy folk and hairy men of the bush, then you’ve got to explain why you’re not also using the taniwha and so on. But even if you want to press the scattered traditions of fairy folk into service as evidence for ancient pale-skinned settlers of these islands, you run into the insurmountable obstacle of the complete absence of material evidence for such settlers. There’s nothing under the tephra.
‘perhaps there were other people around? An earlier species of human out of Africa perhaps?’
So you think there was a wave of white-skinned people that came out of Africa tens of thousands of years ago and had the aquatechnology to spread all the way to NZ, when the Europeans couldn’t even get to the Azores until less than a thousand years ago, and that these ancient settlers left no trace of their coming except some Maori folk tales about fairies who hid in the bush and played flutes? I guess you could work taniwha into your theory, and claim that the fairies rode them across the ocean to these islands.
‘When do you imagine the last Neanderthal died RTM?’
I’m not sure what this has to do with NZ history, but the last Neanderthals died out about thirty thousand years ago at the bottom of the Iberian peninsula.
‘When did the last mammoth die?’
About four thousand years ago on Wrangel Island.
Archaeology is a wonderful thing, isn’t it? We can know about Neanderthals and mammoths, and we can discard claims about ancient civilisations in NZ after digging and finding nothing to support them.
‘You do realise we have the worst lands on the planet for preservation of early peoples’
How did you get this idea? We have a very good stratigraphic record, with the tephra laid down nicely in layers. We’re not like a tropical atoll, where stratigraphy is very hard to establish.
‘Do you know if Neanderthals ever made it to NZ?’
With their sophisticated aquatechnology, who knows? Seriously, I think you’ve wandered down a pretty curious path here.
Sorry RTM but your assumptions about me discount your otherwise known, though conservative and status quo, points. Example:
“You haven’t spent much time thinking about the history of these islands’ Polynesian inhabitants and their ancestors in the tropical Pacific, but you have a very strong desire to believe in an ancient civilisation that is extremely unlikely to have existed here”……. is horseshit and you have no way of knowing what you claim there about what I have been looking into.. I have no desire to believe anything thanks. It is a curiousity borne of many seemingly illogical facts.
The rest of your comment is similarly presumptive and emotive … for example, continual use of the words “ancient civilization” with all its underlying implications of great cities and fortifications and associated infrastructure. I have mentioned none of that. You do.
I just love the certainty that some people have about the past and the future – they make me smile. You are right up there with that certainty RTM, evidenced by this comment “There’s nothing under the tephra.”
If only humans in the past had been so certain about the future eh RTM… you are a ground-breaker with your certainty that the past is now known, … lol
. .
here is a question for you: how many tonnes of pounamu were found spread across Aotearoa when the Europeans arrived?
Interesting article on the Spinoff about the dearth of women in NZ business, though there is the odd inclusion of Paula Bennett in the list. Is it a joke/irony? Any thoughts?
Shiv Prakash Chanda, who works as a nursing officer in the hospital, said: “It is incredibly hot. None of the air-conditioners or coolers are working. We have running water, but the water is stored in tanks on top the buildings, and when it comes out of the tap the water is so hot that you can’t even wash your hands with it. You can’t even go to the toilet.”
As an aside, it’s interesting they appear to be charged through the Conservation Act for removing fish that are an introduced apex predator (and are recognised as one of the biggest threats to native fish species) in the NZ environment. But who am I to question..
& congrats to Murdoch for winning Canon Media Award for Political Cartooning, she’s one of the more abrasive anti-right wing ones too, amazing recognition for a great political cartoonist in a field rich in brilliant biting political cartoonists.
But despite describing the current state of dislocation fairly well, he seems unable to grasp that we are close to the end of the 35 year neoliberal paradigm, which substituted asset price booms and increased consumer access to borrowing for policies that focused on increasing average worker wages. In the topsy-turvy world of the new orthodoxy, worker prosperity was bad because…gasp…it might create inflation!
And economists and policymakers have done such a splendid job of fighting the last war long after the inflation threat was vanquished that they are now on the verge of creating deflation, which is far more destructive than inflation, particularly in debt-burdened economies….
The very fact that these monetary innovations are unprecedented means that their impact is unpredictable. This necessarily increases the scope for policy errors and conflicts. Indeed, the lack of consensus on what needs or can be done is palpable. One sign that all is not well is the recent emergence of a vitriolic debate about helicopter money, whereby central banks create money to distribute to citizens directly or via the government.
And on avoiding tax owing by USA corporates sending funds overseas. http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2016/05/bogus-defenses-of-tax-dodging-corporate-inversions.html
Posted by Yves Smith 20 May 2016 The crucial motive in transferring corporations’ “nationality” and official headquarters to low-tax nations is that inversions shield the “foreign” profits of U.S. corporations from federal taxation and ease access to these assets. This protects total U.S. corporate profits held outside the United States—a stunning $2.1 trillion—from any U.S. corporate taxes until they are “repatriated” back to the United States.
Major corporations benefit hugely from the infinite deferral of taxes purportedly generated by their foreign subsidiaries. “If you are a multinational corporation, the federal government turns your tax bill into an interest-free loan,” wrote David Cay Johnston, Pulitzer-Prize winning writer and author of two books on corporate tax avoidance. Thanks to this deferral, he explained, “Apple and General Electric owe at least $36 billion in taxes on profits being held tax-free offshore, Microsoft nearly $27 billion, and Pfizer $24 billion.”
Nonetheless, top CEOs and their political allies constantly reiterate the claim that the U.S. tax system “traps” U.S. corporate profits overseas and thereby block domestic investment of these funds. But these “offshore” corporate funds are anything but trapped outside the United States. “The [typical multinational] firm … chooses to keep the earnings offshore simply because it does not want to pay the U.S. income taxes it owes,” explains Thomas Hungerford of the Economic Policy Institute. “This is a very strange definition of ‘trapped’.”
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Do you remember Y2K, the threat that hung over humanity in the closing days of the twentieth century? Horror scenarios of planes falling from the sky, electronic payments failing and ATMs refusing to dispense cash. As for your VCR following instructions and recording your favourite show - forget about it.All ...
Climate Change Minister Simon Watts being questioned by The Kākā’s Bernard Hickey.TL;DR: My top six things to note around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the week to July 20 were:1. A strategy that fails Zero Carbon Act & Paris targetsThe National-ACT-NZ First Coalition Government finally unveiled ...
Summary:As New Zealand loses at least 12 leaders in the public service space of health, climate, and pharmaceuticals, this month alone, directly in response to the Government’s policies and budget choices, what lies ahead may be darker than it appears. Tui examines some of those departures and draws a long ...
The Minister of Housing’s ambition is to reduce markedly the ratio of house prices to household incomes. If his strategy works it would transform the housing market, dramatically changing the prospects of housing as an investment.Leaving aside the Minister’s metaphor of ‘flooding the market’ I do not see how the ...
As previously noted, my historical fantasy piece, set in the fifth-century Mediterranean, was accepted for a Pirate Horror anthology, only for the anthology to later fall through. But in a good bit of news, it turned out that the story could indeed be re-marketed as sword and sorcery. As of ...
An employee of tobacco company Philip Morris International demonstrates a heated tobacco device. Photo: Getty ImagesTL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy on Friday, July 19 are:At a time when the Coalition Government is cutting spending on health, infrastructure, education, housing ...
TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 8:30 am on Friday, July 19 are:Scoop: NZ First Minister Casey Costello orders 50% cut to excise tax on heated tobacco products. The minister has ...
Kia ora, it’s time for another Friday roundup, in which we pull together some of the links and stories that caught our eye this week. Feel free to add more in the comments! Our header image this week shows a foggy day in Auckland town, captured by Patrick Reynolds. ...
TL;DR : Here’s the top six items climate news for Aotearoa this week, as selected by Bernard Hickey and The Kākā’s climate correspondent Cathrine Dyer. A discussion recorded yesterday is in the video above and the audio of that sent onto the podcast feed.The Government released its draft Emissions Reduction ...
Save some money, get rich and old, bring it back to Tobacco Road.Bring that dynamite and a crane, blow it up, start all over again.Roll up. Roll up. Or tailor made, if you prefer...Whether you’re selling ciggies, digging for gold, catching dolphins in your nets, or encouraging folks to flutter ...
Waiting In The Wings:For truly, if Trump is America’s un-assassinated Caesar, then J.D. Vance is America’s Octavian, the Republic’s youthful undertaker – and its first Emperor.DONALD TRUMP’S SELECTION of James D. Vance as his running-mate bodes ill for the American republic. A fervent supporter of Viktor Orban, the “illiberal” prime ...
TL;DR: As of 6:00 am on Friday, July 19, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:The PSAannounced the Employment Relations Authority (ERA) had ruled in the PSA’s favour in its case against the Ministry ...
TL;DR: The podcast above of the weekly ‘hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers last night features co-hosts and talking with:The Kākā’s climate correspondent talking about the National-ACT-NZ First Government’s release of its first Emissions Reduction Plan;University of Otago Foreign Relations Professor and special guest Dr Karin von ...
Open access notablesImproving global temperature datasets to better account for non-uniform warming, Calvert, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society:To better account for spatial non-uniform trends in warming, a new GITD [global instrumental temperature dataset] was created that used maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) to combine the land surface ...
A late change to charter school legislation will cheat educators out of fair pay and negotiating power proving charter schools are just a vehicle to make profit out of our education system. ...
In 2004 te iwi Māori rallied against the Crown’s attempt to confiscate our coastlines and moana with the Foreshore and Seabed Act. This led to the largest hīkoi of a generation and the birth of Te Pāti Māori. 20 years later, history is repeating itself. Today the government has announced ...
It has been five and a half years since the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in Care was established to investigate the abuse of children, young people, and vulnerable adults within state and faith-based institutions. Yesterday, the final report - Whanaketia through pain and trauma, from darkness to light ...
The Green Party is calling on the Government to take action off the back of the International Court of Justice ruling on Israel’s illegal occupation of Palestine. ...
On Friday the International Court of Justice reaffirmed what Palestinian’s have been telling us for decades: that the occupation and colonisation of Palestinian lands by Israel is illegal and must end immediately. They also called for reparations for Palestinian’s who have lived under Israeli occupation since it began in 1967. ...
Labour calls on the Government to act after the International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruled that Israel’s occupation of Palestinian Territories is illegal. ...
The 53.7 percent rise in benefit sanctions over the last year is more proof of this Government’s disdain for our communities most in need of support. ...
Aotearoa could be a country where every child grows up feeling safe, loved and with a sense of belonging in their whānau and community. But for some of our children, this is far from reality. Instead, they are trapped in a maze of intergenerational harm that they can’t escape on ...
Te Pāti Māori are calling for David Seymour to resign as Associate Health Minister in response to his call for Pharmac to ignore the Treaty of Waitangi. “This announcement is just another example of the government’s anti-Tiriti, anti-Māori agenda.” Said Co-leader and spokesperson for health, Debbie Ngarewa-Packer. “Seymour thinks it ...
The soaring price of renting is driving the rise of inflation in this country - with latest figures from Stats NZ showing rents are up 4.8 per cent on average while annual inflation is at 3.3 per cent. ...
National’s Emissions Reduction Plan will take New Zealand further from the economy we need to ensure the next generation has a stable climate and secure livelihoods. ...
Following consultation with named parties and thorough consideration of privacy interests, the Green Party is in a position to release the Executive Summary of the final report from the independent investigation into Darleen Tana. ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon should be asking serious questions of his Minister for Resources Shane Jones now it’s been revealed he misled the public about a dinner with mining companies that he didn’t declare and said wasn’t pre-arranged. ...
Te Pāti Māori have submitted to the Justice Select Committee against the Sentencing (Reinstating Three Strikes) Amendment Bill. The bill will further entrench racism in our justice system and fails to focus on rehabilitation. “Reinstating Three Strikes will empower a systematically racist system and exacerbate the overrepresentation of Māori in ...
The Transport and Infrastructure Committee is set to make a determination on the Residential Tenancies Amendment (RTA) Bill in the coming weeks. “This legislation will give landlords the power to kick our whānau out onto the street for no reason” said Housing spokesperson, Mariameno Kapa-Kingi. “Their solution to the housing ...
“National’s campaign was about tackling crime and the best they can do is a two-year long Ministerial Advisory Group,” Labour justice spokesperson Duncan Webb said. ...
“There are more examples of charter schools failing their students than there are success stories. The coalition Government is driving to dismantle our public school system and instead promote a privatised, competitive structure that puts profits before kids,” Jan Tinetti said. ...
“This government is choosing to deliberately mislead and withhold information, keeping our people in the dark about this government’s agenda and the future of our mokopuna,” said co-leader and spokesperson for Health, Debbie Ngarewa-Packer. The call comes after the demand from the Chief Ombudsman that Associate Minister of Health, Casey ...
“Today’s climate announcement by Simon Watts makes clear the National Government is simply paying lip service to meeting its climate change targets,” Megan Woods said. ...
National is choosing to make life harder for workers by taking away the rights our communities have fought hard for. Here's how they’re taking workers backwards. ...
Australia, Canada and New Zealand today issued the following statement on the need for an urgent ceasefire in Gaza and the risk of expanded conflict between Hizballah and Israel. The situation in Gaza is catastrophic. The human suffering is unacceptable. It cannot continue. We remain unequivocal in our condemnation of ...
Attorney-General Judith Collins today reminded all State and faith-based institutions of their legal obligation to preserve records relevant to the safety and wellbeing of those in its care. “The Abuse in Care Inquiry’s report has found cases where records of the most vulnerable people in State and faith‑based institutions were ...
Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says the Government’s online safety website for children and young people has reached one million page views. “It is great to see so many young people and their families accessing the site Keep It Real Online to learn how to stay safe online, and manage ...
Tēnā tātou katoa, Ngā mihi te rangi, ngā mihi te whenua, ngā mihi ki a koutou, kia ora mai koutou. Thank you for the opportunity to be here and the invitation to speak at this 50th anniversary conference. I acknowledge all those who have gone before us and paved the ...
New Zealand’s payroll providers have successfully prepared to ensure 3.5 million individuals will, from Wednesday next week, be able to keep more of what they earn each pay, says Finance Minister Nicola Willis and Revenue Minister Simon Watts. “The Government's tax policy changes are legally effective from Wednesday. Delivering this tax ...
An experimental vineyard which will help futureproof the wine sector has been opened in Blenheim by Associate Regional Development Minister Mark Patterson. The covered vineyard, based at the New Zealand Wine Centre – Te Pokapū Wāina o Aotearoa, enables controlled environmental conditions. “The research that will be produced at the Experimental ...
The Coalition Government has confirmed the indicative regional breakdown of North Island Weather Event (NIWE) funding for state highway recovery projects funded through Budget 2024, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Regions in the North Island suffered extensive and devastating damage from Cyclone Gabrielle and the 2023 Auckland Anniversary Floods, and ...
Indonesia’s Foreign Minister, Retno Marsudi, will visit New Zealand next week, Foreign Minister Winston Peters has announced. “Indonesia is important to New Zealand’s security and economic interests and is our closest South East Asian neighbour,” says Mr Peters, who is currently in Laos to engage with South East Asian partners. ...
He aha te kai a te rangatira? He kōrero, he kōrero, he kōrero. The government has reaffirmed its commitment to supporting the aspirations of Ngāti Maniapoto, Minister for Māori Development Tama Potaka says. “My thanks to Te Nehenehenui Trust – Ngāti Maniapoto for bringing their important kōrero to a ministerial ...
Transport Minister Simeon Brown has thanked outgoing Chair of the Civil Aviation Authority, Janice Fredric, for her service to the board.“I have received Ms Fredric’s resignation from the role of Chair of the Civil Aviation Authority,” Mr Brown says.“On behalf of the Government, I want to thank Ms Fredric for ...
The Government is proposing legislation to overturn a Court of Appeal decision and amend the Marine and Coastal Area Act in order to restore Parliament’s test for Customary Marine Title, Treaty Negotiations Minister Paul Goldsmith says. “Section 58 required an applicant group to prove they have exclusively used and occupied ...
Regulation Minister David Seymour says that opposition parties have united in bad faith, opposing what they claim are ‘dangerous changes’ to the Early Childhood Education sector, despite no changes even being proposed yet. “Issues with affordability and availability of early childhood education, and the complexity of its regulation, has led ...
After receiving more than 740 submissions in the first 20 days, Regulation Minister David Seymour is asking the Ministry for Regulation to extend engagement on the early childhood education regulation review by an extra two weeks. “The level of interest has been very high, and from the conversations I’ve been ...
The Coalition Government is investing $802.9 million into the Wairarapa and Manawatū rail lines as part of a funding agreement with the NZ Transport Agency (NZTA), KiwiRail, and the Greater Wellington and Horizons Regional Councils to deliver more reliable services for commuters in the lower North Island, Transport Minister Simeon ...
Local Government Minister Simeon Brown has announced his intention to appoint a Crown Manager to both Hawke’s Bay Regional and Wairoa District Councils to speed up the delivery of flood protection work in Wairoa."Recent severe weather events in Wairoa this year, combined with damage from Cyclone Gabrielle in 2023 have ...
Mr Speaker, this is a day that many New Zealanders who were abused in State care never thought would come. It’s the day that this Parliament accepts, with deep sorrow and regret, the Report of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in Care. At the heart of this report are the ...
For the first time, the Government is formally acknowledging some children and young people at Lake Alice Psychiatric Hospital experienced torture. The final report of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in State and Faith-based Care “Whanaketia – through pain and trauma, from darkness to light,” was tabled in Parliament ...
The Government has acknowledged the nearly 2,400 courageous survivors who shared their experiences during the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Historical Abuse in State and Faith-Based Care. The final report from the largest and most complex public inquiry ever held in New Zealand, the Royal Commission Inquiry “Whanaketia – through ...
With a week to go before hard-working New Zealanders see personal income tax relief for the first time in fourteen years, 513,000 people have used the Budget tax calculator to see how much they will benefit, says Finance Minister Nicola Willis. “Tax relief is long overdue. From next Wednesday, personal income ...
Workplace Relations and Safety Minister Brooke van Velden says a bill that has passed its first reading will improve parental leave settings and give non-biological parents more flexibility as primary carer for their child. The Regulatory Systems Amendment Bill (No3), passed its first reading this morning. “It includes a change ...
Two Bills designed to improve regulation and make it easier to do business have passed their first reading in Parliament, says Economic Development Minister Melissa Lee. The Regulatory Systems (Economic Development) Amendment Bill and Regulatory Systems (Immigration and Workforce) Amendment Bill make key changes to legislation administered by the Ministry ...
New legislation paves the way for greater competition in sectors such as banking and electricity, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly says. “Competitive markets boost productivity, create employment opportunities and lift living standards. To support competition, we need good quality regulation but, unfortunately, a recent OECD report ranked New ...
Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says lotteries for charitable purposes, such as those run by the Heart Foundation, Coastguard NZ, and local hospices, will soon be allowed to operate online permanently. “Under current laws, these fundraising lotteries are only allowed to operate online until October 2024, after which ...
The Coalition Government is accelerating work on the new four-lane expressway between Auckland and Whangārei as part of its Roads of National Significance programme, with an accelerated delivery model to deliver this project faster and more efficiently, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “For too long, the lack of resilient transport connections ...
Sir Don McKinnon will travel to Viet Nam this week as a Special Envoy of the Government, Foreign Minister Winston Peters has announced. “It is important that the Government give due recognition to the significant contributions that General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong made to New Zealand-Viet Nam relations,” Mr ...
Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says newly appointed Commissioner, Grant Illingworth KC, will help deliver the report for the first phase of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into COVID-19 Lessons, due on 28 November 2024. “I am pleased to announce that Mr Illingworth will commence his appointment as ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters travels to Laos this week to participate in a series of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)-led Ministerial meetings in Vientiane. “ASEAN plays an important role in supporting a peaceful, stable and prosperous Indo-Pacific,” Mr Peters says. “This will be our third visit to ...
Construction of a new mental health facility at Te Nikau Grey Hospital in Greymouth is today one step closer, Mental Health Minister Matt Doocey says. “This $27 million facility shows this Government is delivering on its promise to boost mental health care and improve front line services,” Mr Doocey says. ...
New Zealand is committing nearly $50 million to a package supporting sustainable Pacific fisheries development over the next four years, Foreign Minister Winston Peters and Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones announced today. “This support consisting of a range of initiatives demonstrates New Zealand’s commitment to assisting our Pacific partners ...
Associate Education Minister David Seymour says proposed changes to the Education and Training Amendment Bill will ensure charter schools have more flexibility to negotiate employment agreements and are equipped with the right teaching resources. “Cabinet has agreed to progress an amendment which means unions will not be able to initiate ...
In response to serious concerns around oversight, overspend and a significant deterioration in financial outlook, the Board of Health New Zealand will be replaced with a Commissioner, Health Minister Dr Shane Reti announced today. “The previous government’s botched health reforms have created significant financial challenges at Health NZ that, without ...
Minister for Space and Science, Innovation and Technology Judith Collins will travel to Adelaide tomorrow for space and science engagements, including speaking at the Australian Space Forum. While there she will also have meetings and visits with a focus on space, biotechnology and innovation. “New Zealand has a thriving space ...
Climate Change Minister Simon Watts will travel to China on Saturday to attend the Ministerial on Climate Action meeting held in Wuhan. “Attending the Ministerial on Climate Action is an opportunity to advocate for New Zealand climate priorities and engage with our key partners on climate action,” Mr Watts says. ...
Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones is travelling to the Solomon Islands tomorrow for meetings with his counterparts from around the Pacific supporting collective management of the region’s fisheries. The 23rd Pacific Islands Forum Fisheries Committee and the 5th Regional Fisheries Ministers’ Meeting in Honiara from 23 to 26 July ...
The Government today launched the Military Style Academy Pilot at Te Au rere a te Tonga Youth Justice residence in Palmerston North, an important part of the Government’s plan to crackdown on youth crime and getting youth offenders back on track, Minister for Children, Karen Chhour said today. “On the ...
The Government has welcomed news the NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) has begun work to replace nine priority bridges across the country to ensure our state highway network remains resilient, reliable, and efficient for road users, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.“Increasing productivity and economic growth is a key priority for the ...
Acting Prime Minister David Seymour has been in contact throughout the evening with senior officials who have coordinated a whole of government response to the global IT outage and can provide an update. The Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet has designated the National Emergency Management Agency as the ...
New Zealand and Japan will continue to step up their shared engagement with the Pacific, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. “New Zealand and Japan have a strong, shared interest in a free, open and stable Pacific Islands region,” Mr Peters says. “We are pleased to be finding more ways ...
New developments in the heart of North Island forestry country will reinvigorate their communities and boost economic development, Regional Development Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones visited Kaingaroa and Kawerau in Bay of Plenty today to open a landmark community centre in the former and a new connecting road in ...
President Adeang, fellow Ministers, honourable Diet Member Horii, Ambassadors, distinguished guests. Minasama, konnichiwa, and good afternoon, everyone. Distinguished guests, it’s a pleasure to be here with you today to talk about New Zealand’s foreign policy reset, the reasons for it, the values that underpin it, and how it ...
Last summer when Matairangi burned, Ginny and Tom stood at the window of their lounge, watching kākā shoot skyward from the burning trees. From the distance, they looked to Ginny like pages torn from books and thrown into a bonfire. It was Tom, voice tight, who told her it was ...
Opinion: The Canadian short story writer Alice Munro – winner of the Nobel Prize in Literature in 2013 – died in May at the age of 92. Her work was about “the damage people inflict on one another in the name of love”, Deborah Treisman wrote in the New Yorker. ...
This month marks two years since the most powerful telescope ever built sent its first pictures back to earth. From its lofty vantage point, beyond the moon in orbit around the sun, the James Webb Space Telescope was tuned to observe the first stars and galaxies being born soon after ...
Comment: After Climate Change Minister Simon Watts’ preview several weeks ago, I had some optimism about the Government’s emissions reduction plan. Now I’ve read the discussion document, that hope has been dashed. How can the Government propose a plan that wants to take New Zealand taxpayers’ hard-earned money, and spend ...
Christopher Luxon: hurdles The little man from National jumps hurdles in his sleep. He’s quite good at it in his dreams and even though the reality doesn’t quite match up you have to give him credit for getting up every morning and crashing into the very first hurdle of the ...
Comment: It was a good two hours into the conversation when Tyrone Marks raised the most basic of questions when I first spoke to him in 2017. “They didn’t explain the things they did to me. They never told me why. And they still haven’t. There’s no explanation for it. ...
Madeleine Chapman rounds out Death Week on The Spinoff with a final recommendation. You can read all of our Death Week coverage here. Nothing forces you to reflect on your life and relationships quite like proximity to death. For those whose nearest and dearest have died, there are reasonably obvious ...
Whitney Greene takes us through her life in television, including the TV character she’d like to plan a funeral for and her cow lung catastrophe on The Traitors NZ. “If the phone rings, I have to answer it,” Whitney Greene from The Traitors NZ warns as we begin our My ...
Maddie Ballard reviews the debut essay collection of Pōneke writer Flora Feltham.In ‘The Raw Material’, the longest essay in Flora Feltham’s dazzling debut collection, the author heads out for a run after hours of weaving and sees the world turn to textile. “Pounding along the Parade, I saw the ...
Andy Christiansen, one half of the experimental rock-pop duo TRiPS, shares the tunes inspiring the band’s perfect weekend and new release. “Good speakers, good food, good music, no distractions”: that’s all you need to enjoy the psychedelic stylings of TRiPS, a new band formed by Fly My Pretties’ Barnaby Weir ...
Celebrating our quadrennial opportunity to become experts in a bunch of sports we never normally watch.The games of the XXXIII Olympiad are upon us. Paris will host this year’s showcase of sporting and athletic prowess, which means some late-night and early-morning viewing for us in Aotearoa.But what sports ...
The photograph is striking and beautiful, but also disturbing – a reminder that my love for John was often entangled in shame.The Sunday Essay is made possible thanks to the support of Creative New Zealand.In the spring of 1980, in Dunedin, shortly before his death, someone took a photograph ...
Get to know Babushka, our latest Dog of the Month. This feature was offered as a reward during our What’s Eating Aotearoa PledgeMe campaign. Thank you to Babu’s humans, Jo and Isabel, for their support. Dog name: Babushka (Babu for short) Age: 2Breed: Border Collie X poodleIf rescued, ...
Pacific Media Watch A Lebanese photojournalist who was severely wounded during an Israeli air strike in south Lebanon carried the Olympic torch in Paris this week in honour of her peers who have been wounded and killed in the field — especially in Gaza and Lebanon. Christina Assi of Agence ...
The first report in a five-part web series focused on the 15th Triennial Conference of Pacific Women taking place in the Marshall Islands this week.SPECIAL REPORT:By Netani Rika in Majuro Women continue to fight for justice 70 years after the first nuclear tests by the United States caused ...
Christopher Luxon has joined with Australia and Canada's leaders in voicing support for US President Joe Biden's ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra The 2022 election brought the “teal wave” into parliament. The next election will test whether teals, who occupy what were Liberal seats, and other independents can maintain their momentum. Joining us on the Podcast ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ian Musgrave, Senior lecturer in Pharmacology, University of Adelaide Pixavri/Shutterstock A major Federal Court class action has been dismissed this week after Justice Michael Lee ruled there was not enough evidence to prove the weedkiller Roundup causes cancer. Plaintiff Kelvin ...
In The Week in Politics: politicians have to decide what to do about child abuse, Health NZ is booked in for major surgery and Darleen Tana returns. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Clare Corbould, Associate Professor, Contemporary Histories Research Group, Deakin University Mainstream media are surprisingly muted at the prospect of the world’s most powerful nation being led for the first time by a woman – specifically a woman of colour, Vice President Kamala ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rebecca Bennett, PhD Student, Associate Research Fellow, Deakin University Last week, a drone delivery company called Wing (owned by Google’s parent company, Alphabet) started operating in Melbourne. Some 250,000 residents in parts of the city’s eastern suburbs can now order food from ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jonathan Foo, Lecturer, Physiotherapy, Monash University pikselstock/Shutterstock In the next 40 years in Australia, it’s predicted the number of Australians aged 65 and over will more than double, while the number of people aged 85 and over will more than triple. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Katrina Grant, Research Associate, Power Institute for Arts and Visual Culture, University of Sydney Jonas Åkerström’s 1790 work, Session of the Accademia dell’Arcadia on August 17 1788.Nationalmuseum/Cecilia Heisser Ever wondered whether you’d have a better chance at winning an Olympic gold ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alexandra Jones, Program Lead, Food Governance, George Institute for Global Health wavebreakmedia/Shutterstock On Thursday, Australian and New Zealand food ministers at state, federal and national levels met to thrash out what’s next for health star ratings on packaged foods. Now, after ...
The Abuse in Care report found many Pacific survivors lost their connections to their culture and language, resulting in trauma that has been carried from generation to generation. ...
In the regulatory review, ECC intends to suggest that ERO focus on curriculum delivery reviews rather than the Ministry, because it’s not efficient or effective to have two agencies with radically different approaches climbing over each other. ...
Te Rūnanga Nui o Ngā Kura Kaupapa Māori invites the current government to work in partnership with them to develop a pathway forward, including the development of a parallel pathway and meaningful policy and strategy for Kura Kaupapa Māori ...
If you haven’t started watching yet, Tara Ward begs you to reconsider. This is an excerpt from our weekly pop culture newsletter Rec Room. Sign up here. In the world of New Zealand reality television, we have many gems in our crown. There’s the delicious second season of the Celebrity Treasure ...
A new poem by Fiona Kidman. The clothes of the dead I did not keep my mother’s furry red beret for long nor the stringy scarves that adorned the necks of my aunts, although I have kept tag ends of gold, the rings and trinkets they wore, the brooches no ...
The government’s announcement that it will re-open the foreshore and seabed controversy by changing the rules on recognising centuries-old Māori customary title for a third time goes against the rule of law and New Zealand values,” Mr Tipa says. ...
The only published and available best-selling indie book chart in New Zealand is the top 10 sales list recorded every week at Unity Books’ stores in High St, Auckland, and Willis St, Wellington.AUCKLAND1 Lioness by Emily Perkins (Bloomsbury, $25) Roarrrr! Perkins’ brilliant, award-winning, Marian-Keyes anointed, darkly funny, long ...
The 2004 Act vested ownership of the foreshore and seabed in the Crown, extinguishing any Māori claims to ownership and causing widespread outrage and protests among Māori communities. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Antje Deckert, Associate Professor (Criminology), Auckland University of Technology Getty Images Despite the connection between institutional harm and gang membership made clear in this week’s mammoth royal commission abuse-in care report, the government seems unlikely to soften its “get tough on ...
From Lewis Clareburt in the swimming to the start of the rowing – the first seven days of Paris 2024 promise to be big for New Zealand. There are few events that bring the country together quite like an Olympic Games. Nothing quite matches the excitement of getting up in ...
Groundbreaking local science just showed up in the most surprising of places: the season finale of The Kardashians. In the season five finale of The Kardashians last night, several members of the family gathered together in one of their signature empty, cream-coloured rooms to hear test results that had been ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Amin Saikal, Emeritus professor of Middle Eastern and Central Asian Studies, Australian National University The Middle East is on the brink of a possibly devastating regional war, with hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah reaching an extremely dangerous level. Washington has engaged in ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Laura Elizabeth Eades, Rheumatologist, Monash University Lupus is an inflammatory autoimmune illness, where the body’s immune system mistakenly attacks itself. Lupus can affect virtually any part of the body, although it most commonly affects the skin, joints and kidneys. The symptoms ...
A law firm that specialises in working with survivors of abuse in State care is disappointed that the Government fails to recognise that its boot camps can be directly compared to previous boot camps from the 1990s and 2000s. ...
Dying is a natural part of life, like updating your Wof or seeing your hairdresser, but without the word-of-mouth recs that help guarantee a good service. What if we changed that? Dying Reviews received by The Spinoff have had the names of organisations redacted while Hospice NZ collects further data. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jonti Horner, Professor (Astrophysics), University of Southern Queensland Mike Lewinski/Flickr, CC BY On any clear night, if you gaze skywards long enough, chances are you’ll see a meteor streaking through the sky. Some nights, however, are better than others. At ...
Despite having no bars or other designated spaces for lesbians, Auckland boasts a small but mighty lesbian museum. So how did it get here? The past 18 months has brought increasing hostility towards the queer community across Aotearoa. Kellie-Jay Keen-Minshull’s anti-trans rally in Tamaki Makaurau last March led to a ...
Poneke Antifascist Coalition has invited Wellingtonians to stand in solidarity with the Kanak people at 12pm today outside the French Embassy in Wellington. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Layton, Visiting Fellow, Strategic Studies, Griffith University Drones are the signature technology of the Ukraine war. A few miniature aircraft designs were used in the war’s early days, but an incredible array of drones have now evolved. There are different types, ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mark Slee, Associate Professor, Clinical Academic Neurologist, Flinders University Francisco Gonzelez/Unsplash Migraine is many things, but one thing it’s not is “just a headache”. “Migraine” comes from the Greek word “hemicrania”, referring to the common experience of migraine being predominantly ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lee White, Senior Lecturer and Horizon Fellow, School of Social and Political Sciences, University of Sydney Australia was slow to introduce minimum building standards for energy efficiency. The Nationwide House Energy Rating Scheme (NatHERS) only came into force in 2003. Older homes ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Steven Sherwood, Professor of Atmospheric Sciences, Climate Change Research Centre, UNSW Sydney The past century of human-induced warming has increased rainfall variability over 75% of the Earth’s land area – particularly over Australia, Europe and eastern North America, new research shows. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tony Heynen, Program Coordinator, Sustainable Energy, The University of Queensland A temporary stadium in the Champ-de-Mars, ParisEkaterina Pokrovsky/Shutterstock As Paris prepares to host the Olympic and Paralympic Games, the sustainability of the event is coming under scrutiny. The organisers have promoted ...
A night of karaoke and community in a pub that feels like a memory. You’d barely even notice it, unless you knew to look. Tucked away behind a liquor store on busy Constable Street is the capital’s last great pub. Newtown Sports Bar is an emblem of the pub culture ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ian Wright, Professor in Marine Geology, University of Canterbury Louise Corcoran/Getty Images The decline in the number of doctoral candidates at New Zealand universities is a worrying sign for the country’s effort to build a knowledge-based economy. Aotearoa New Zealand’s ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Laurie Berg, Associate Professor, University of Technology Sydney defotoberg/Shutterstock Migrant worker exploitation is entrenched in workplaces across Australia. Tragically, a deep fear of immigration consequences means most unlawful employer conduct goes unreported. On Wednesday, however, the government officially launched a ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Vaughan Cruickshank, Senior Lecturer in Health and Physical Education, University of Tasmania Paris is about to host its third summer Olympics. While we don’t yet know what the legacy of this year’s games will be, let’s take the opportunity to reflect on ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hugh Breakey, Deputy Director, Institute for Ethics, Governance & Law, Griffith University In the wake of the assassination attempt on former US President Donald Trump, there were calls from bothsides of US politics, as well as internationally, to reduce the brutal, ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Keith Rathbone, Senior Lecturer, Modern European History and Sports History, Macquarie University Two high-profile assaults on Australians in Paris have raised concerns about security ahead of the Olympic Games. On Saturday evening, a young woman was allegedly sexually assaulted by a ...
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New Zealand has entered a new debt-fuelled phase of economic growth, say Westpac.
The bank is forecasting that “real” house prices will drop by 1.4 per cent in 2018.
Westpac said Kiwis were in a “borrow and spend” cycle that could not be sustained and it expected economic growth would also slow from 2018.
The report said the average household had debts equivalent to 162 per cent of their annual disposable income.
That was higher than the peak of 159 per cent reached in 2009 during the “global financial crisis” and had “completely reversed the reduction in debt levels seen over the last few years.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/80066702/NZ-house-prices-to-drop-in-real-terms-from-2018-as-borrow-and-spend-cycle-burns-out-Westpac
Thoughts?
it’s not just NZ. Derivative liabilities globally are now well above GFC levels. Its going to be big.
http://goldprice.org/gold-price-chart.html
That might be why gold is heating up.
Russia and China buying hundreds of thousands of ounces of physical, delivered gold a month (as opposed to paper promises/paper options) is also a factor.
http://sputniknews.com/politics/20160330/1037221433/gold-russia-china-dedollarization.html
TC if I said my thoughts, John Keys GCSB would be having a long chat with me about it.
Budget coming up. My Nat contacts seem to be in the know and appear to be excited. No doubt the Budget will set the scene and strengthen campaigning that’ll start just under seven months. Last year, Labour didn’t put out an alternative Budget, maybe because Grant was still new and in his first year in the Finance portfolio. Hoping Labour will have a promising alternative Budget this year that’ll energise supporters.
i’d expect another solid increase in the minimum wage as well, as part of National’s early positioning. Them workers derserve their share of our successful economy you know.
Meanwhile, Labour have not yet concretely backed a move to the living wage $19/hr, and National will soon move the minimum wage to $15.75/hr is my bet.
I think they will just continue to cover the total Crown debt with a media headline of tax cuts to come.
The counter-narrative isn’t easy but the collective Opposition has to stick to theme of housing bubble, dairy decline, and a directionless country led by the corrupt and the cruel.
People have been sick of Labour’s negativity for years now.
Labour needs to announce big positive plans for the nation, and it needs to stop daily referencing how shit National and John Key are.
As for the housing bubble and unaffordable Auckland house prices, everyone remembers that was all in full swing during Labour years.
If I were Labour I would announce nothing at all. No need, and has no effect.
Key and English have set 2017 as theirs to lose and there’s very little this Opposition can do about it, other than let the pattern of NZ political history take over.
Ahh yes, the old paradigm of the tide going out on the incumbent, and coming in for the opposition.
That’s over with.
Wtf is happening in Brazil?
Temer has said he is prepared to make unpopular decisions because he does not intend to stand for re-election in 2018. He is barred from running due to previous electoral violations – and is so widely disliked that he would not stand a chance of winning even if he could.
“I do not need to practice gestures or actions leading to a possible re-election. I can even be – shall we say – unpopular as long as it produces benefits for the country. For me, that would be enough,” he told a local news program.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/20/brazil-rightwing-government-michel-temer
neolib coup d’etat
No Pat, a hard right turn.
“· info)); French: blow of state; plural: coups d’état), also known simply as a coup, or an overthrow, is the sudden and forced seizure of a state, usually instigated by a small group of the existing government establishment to depose the established regime and replace it with a new ruling body.”
think you will find that coup d’etat is exactly the correct description ….and are you seriously going to try to suggest the instigators are not neoliberal given the policy outlined immediately they seized power?
Naom Chomsky explains on the Real News
Sobering isn’t it CV? Wonder why the Establishment doesn’t like Noam?
Here of course Bill manipulates the figures to make the books look better. But here Bill gets praise not impeachment.
NZ yearly GHG Emmission Inventory report. Some sober reading, esp the 25 yr perspective, but interesting too. It’s not just about the carbon, and bold pointers to where the most emissions are coming from (ag, transport)
http://www.mfe.govt.nz/climate-change/reporting-greenhouse-gas-emissions/nzs-greenhouse-gas-inventory
http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/304393/greenhouse-gases-hit-25-year-high
So Ag is by far the biggest contributor of GHGs, more than 20% bigger than transport which is no. 2.
You may not like some of the “vegan propaganda” in Cowspiracy but it appears that they have a point, does it not.
Irrelevant tosh CV. New Zealand has a peculiar emissions foot-print among developed, high emitting nations, but seeing as how AGW is a global problem…
If the principle focus is put on land use, then concentrations of CO2 (or CO2e if you prefer) are going to keep increasing with an increase in surface temperatures tacking along behind.
Land use emissions need to be reduced – no argument from anyone there. Fossil emissions need to be eliminated altogether.
Question. If coal and other fossil hadn’t been adopted as primary sources of energy back in the mid to late 1800s and carbon neutral energy sources adopted instead, and if modern, industrial agriculture had developed to be exactly as it is today under that scenario, then would we be facing anything like the level of AGW that we’re currently faced with?
Answer. No.
Question. If modern industrial agriculture had developed in a different direction – if it had trod lightly and mindfully with regards environmental impacts – but fossil was still the principle source of energy, then would we be facing anything like the level of AGW that we are today?
Answer. Yes.
Hear hear
The two alternative scenarios you posit, they are not NZ-centric, right but global?
They are scenarios around how the world as a whole has developed since the mid 1800s re: industrial ag and also fossil fuel use?
The questions were posed with a global scenario in mind, yes.
So why are we not designing a GHG emissions limitation programme for NZ which is a unique fit with where we as a nation are doing the most climate change damage, instead of implementing a generic emissions limitation programme which is generically suited to the rest of the developed, high emitting world, and which ignores our own special characteristics?
Because it’s a global problem that will only be solved by eradicating the burning of fossil across the entire globe. It doesn’t matter what else NZ does with regards emissions (and yes, other stuff absolutely should be done) if the eradication of fossil is ignored.
You think NZ sits on another planet from the rest of the world or should promote itself as a ‘special case’ with regards fossil?
See, there are special cases, at least in the short term, with regards fossil CV – swathes of Asia and Africa. In the interests of the equity contained in all of the Accords or Agreements our government signed up to, those places that are developing nations get to use fossil for a little longer to lay in infrastructure (hospitals, energy systems etc) so that the people living in them can have reasonable lives in the future.
Then they (the Annex 2 countries) must be fossil free by 2050 if we (the entire global population) want to afford ourselves even a slim chance of achieving anything like merely two degrees of warming.
Bill, I’m not convinced that that No and Yes are quite as unequivocal as you’ve presented.
Yes, the headline figure is the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere, and the rise from 280ppm to 405ppm is almost entirely due to using fossil fuels, with a small contribution from burning forests, releasing carbon from soils and wetlands due to agriculture. But the important figure for warming on say a ten-year timescale is the CO2 equivalent. I’ve seen some credible estimates we’re as high as 700ppm CO2eq, driven primarily by methane. I haven’t seen credible breakdowns of how that rise in methane splits between domestic animals, land clearance, fracking/coal mining, warming arctic/seafloor releases, etc.
The way I’d put it is that CO2 releases from (really stupid) burning of fossil fuels gives us a long-term warming problem that’s going to be really difficult to correct. The releases of methane and other GHGs from (really stupid) unsustainable agricultural practices gives us a short-term warming problem that will largely go away within a few decades of ceasing the stupid practices.
You noted that in the “no fossil and same land use” scenario I didn’t suggest no AGW, but rather that the scale of AGW would not be the same, yes?
The overall effects arising from basket of GHG isn’t something I profess to understanding. I think it’s fair to say that nobody quite gets it because of the convoluted interactions of positive and negative forcings involved.
In one of Kevin Anderson’s presentations, he suggests that the positive and negative forcings are as close as damn it to cancelling one another out, and so that on current concentrations, if we want a workable picture of what the hell is going on, we can put them to one side and focus on CO2. I don’t know if that’s a reasonable way to view things but I’m not aware of that approach having been taken to task on the grounds it’s either unrealistic or irresponsible.
Methane breaks down into CO2 btw. So after the 20 or 30 years of it having a x20 or x30 impact on warming, it doesn’t just stop, but breaks down to produce a given volume of CO2 that has a lesser but much longer impact.
I took your two scenarios to be “fossil fuels burned, no increase in land-use emissions” which would be 400ppm CO2, wild guess 500ppm CO2eq including fracking/mining emissions, vs “no fossil fuels, changed agricultural land-use” which would be 280ppm CO2, wild guess 450ppm CO2eq from the added methane from domestic animals, draining wetlands etc. Not a huge difference between the two (but both nowhere near as bad as what we’re actually facing). But the “no fossil fuels” scenario has the potential to revert to 280ppm CO2/300ish CO2eq within a few decades if ag emissions stopped, whereas the 400ppm CO2 will take millennia to drop back.
Yes, well aware that CH4 oxidises to CO2 in the atmosphere with a half-life of 8-ish years. And that a molecule of CH4 has a warming effect over a hundred times stronger than a molecule of CO2. The 80x stronger over 20 years or 20x stronger over 100 years figures are the integrated “warming strength x probability of survival” calculations. Which highlights that methane’s effects happen now but mostly tail off relatively quickly, whereas CO2 is effectively forever.
Don’t forget about atmospheric pollution contributing between 1 deg C to 2 deg C worth of “global dimming” to the planet.
A massive cut in the burning of fossil fuels leading to a big drop in atmospheric pollution will immediately send us into 2.5 deg C to 3.5 deg C of warming.
Ahhhh, OK, so typing this, whoops it looks to me like we’re now officially fucked regardless of which way we turn, i.e. whether or not we cut fossil fuel emissions by 0%, by 50% or by 100%.
This stage of the game is already over.
Immediately send us into 2.5 – 3 degrees of warming? Really? And you have some reliable citable reference or source to back that statement, yes?
Global dimming due to atmospheric pollution is currently providing 1 deg C to 2 deg C of cooling to the world. AFAIK that is the state of the art understanding of the phenomenon.
Oh, I know there’s a cooling effect offered by particulates from burning coal for example. (you stated it was 1 – 2 degrees C worth) Then you gleefully stated an immediate 2.5 – 3 degree C of warming would result from not burning fossil. I asked for a verifiable source that would echo or back those numbers.
Do you have one?
1.3 deg C already + (1deg C or 2 deg C from loss of global dimming) = 2.3 deg C to 3.3 deg C.
Check it on a calculator if you like.
Do you have a source that says all ‘dimming’ is the result of fossil fuel combustion…cause that’s what you’re claiming.
Alternatively, do you have a source that says all fossil related ‘dimming’ amounts to a one or two degrees Celsius suppression of temperatures?
The dimming observed over recent decades is due to atmospheric pollutants. Whether all those atmospheric pollutants are a result of fossil fuel combustion – I have no idea.
All I know is that the best guess for total global dimming is that it sits between one degree and two degree Celsius.
You already know how I read all of this. We’re already well past 2 deg C warming, any way that we turn now.
I can’t quite see why you reckon there would only be a difference of 50ppm CO2e in the two scenarios.
I’d suggest that if we hadn’t burned fossil, but somehow arrived at the same land use pattern as today then yes, there’d be some signs of warming…. if anyone bothered to look for it. (ie, it would be more or inconsequential at this stage). And we’d have hundreds and hundreds of years in which to change our land use patterns and avert any noticeable climatic impact from any potential long term warming we were causing.
Because our agricultural land-use patterns of draining wetlands, clearing forests, growing shallow rooted annuals (instead of deep-rooted perennials), choosing ruminant species for livestock, all contribute to putting a lot of methane into the atmosphere. On an ongoing basis.
I’ve seen a few credible papers that suggest that without the global warming due to pre-industrial farming, the late 1800s climate we now take as a pre-industrial baseline would likely have been closer to the “little ice age” of the 1600s. (No, I’m not getting confused with the popular press misrepresentations of the 70s that “an ice age is coming, get prepared”).
But even taking that as read for the sake of argument (that the climate of the 1800s was already warmer due to land use), how do you get the point whereby you more or less equate current land use emissions to fossil related emissions? (in your ppm CO2e numbers)
If today has an atmospheric CO2e of around 550ppm (I don’t think that’s too far off the mark, but haven’t looked it up), then to get a very rough estimate of land use contributions, we’d subtract the 80% of CO2 that comes from fossil and then we’d subtract all the other GHG that come from coal burning and what not to arrive at a figure for land use.
On the other side of the coin, we’d take the 550ppm CO2e and subtract some agreed portion of the 20% of CO2 that comes from land use (there would always be some GHG from land use no matter what) and we’d also subtract whatever proportion of the other GHGs that come from land use.
The first calculation might look something like 550 – 80 – 80 (is assuming similar proportions by source, and so up towards ~ 80% of GHG from fossil way too high?) = 410ppmCO2e
The second might run approximately somewhere like 550 – 20 – 20 = 510ppmCO2e.
So I’m getting somewhere in the region of a 100ppm difference to your 50ppm difference. Regardless, the claim that the interplay of the forcings from GHG – other than CO2 – more or less negate one another, if a reasonable claim, makes all these rough back of the envelope sums irrelevant. And we both pick fossil as the principle driver of AGW.
Yeah, the argument’s getting a little involved over hand-wavy responses to hypothetical scenarios…
So Ag is by far the biggest contributor of GHGs, more than 20% bigger than transport which is no. 2.
You may not like some of the “vegan propaganda” in Cowspiracy but it appears that they have a point, does it not.
It’s an interesting question CV. I guess for me it rests on whether we consider propaganda to be a useful tool in addressing climate change. By propaganda I mean basing one’s argument on ideology but not being upfront about that, and using misleading facts and arguments that push that underlying ideology. At its worst, Cowspiracy looks like its using CC to try and convert society to being vegan. If this wasn’t about ideology, the message would be very different (eat less meat/dairy, eat local, support small growers etc. You can’t argue that if you are a fundamentalist, evangelical vegan though).
I have no problem with someone being vegan. Nor with the idea that developped countries should be eating less meat and dairy because of AGW. But there is a huge difference between eating less meat/dairy and becoming vegan. I’m not convinced that proselytising veganism is a useful strategy. Most people aren’t going to do well on a vegan diet, so how would they be convinced to stay on it for any length of time? (plus all the other arguments I’m sure you’ve heard me make).
I also think there are serious problems with using misleading facts and arguments to try and shift culture. When people find out, they’re going to be angry.
In relation to the report, most of the increase in emissions in the last 25 years is from industrialised dairy (enteric gases, fertiliser use). I think we establised the other day that most milk grown in NZ is exported, so basically NZ is producing emissions to make money. Nothing to do with feeding ourselves. NZ doesn’t have to become vegan in order to reduce those emissions again.
Pretty sure you know my base argument is that it’s not what you grow (or eat) it’s how you do it that matters. The problem with vegan proselytising is that it traps people into a path that isn’t necessarily going to help us in the long run. We need to be reducing food miles far more than becoming vegan. We need conversions to sustainable agriculture far more than we need conversions to veganism. In NZ a vegan diet is generally an industrially produced, imported one, and it relies on the Monsanto-ed monocropping nightmare that destroys soil and emits carbon. I’d prefer to encourage people to eat local, eat seasonal, reduce meat/dairy consumption, increase veges, and prioritise small growers esp regenag ones. All of those things bring multiple benefits that becoming vegan doesn’t. They’re much more achieveable for NZ too.
I’m fascinated that you think that this is a discussion on becoming vegan.
This is a discussion on addressing the fact that in NZ, agriculture generates a lot more GHGs than transport does, and it is the no 1 source of GHGs.
As you noted, most dairy in NZ is exported. That wouldn’t change one whit even if all NZers stopped eating dairy.
“I’m fascinated that you think that this is a discussion on becoming vegan.”
I don’t. You are the one that specifically asked me about a film made by vegans and promoting veganism as a way of reducing GHG emissions. I took your question in good faith.
Here’s what you said in its entirety,
So Ag is by far the biggest contributor of GHGs, more than 20% bigger than transport which is no. 2.
You may not like some of the “vegan propaganda” in Cowspiracy but it appears that they have a point, does it not.
“This is a discussion on addressing the fact that in NZ, agriculture generates a lot more GHGs than transport does, and it is the no 1 source of GHGs.”
I posted a link to the NZ report, which is about a lot of things. You responded by asking me about a vegan film and NZ’s agricultural emissions. If you wanted to limit the conversation to NZ ag, then maybe you could have been clearer in your question.
tbh, I have no idea what you are doing. If you look at my last comment, I talked about a lot more than veganism so you could easily just clarify that that’s not what you meant and then focussed on the other things. Instead you appear to be trying to have a go at me. Not in the mood for a fight today. Really happy to share my ideas on what NZ could or should do to reduce ag GHG emissions though.
“Modern” agriculture and fossil fuel use go hand in hand because the adoption of those ‘cultures’ springs from the same source; producing more than the producer can eat at point source. Build a grain silo, Buzz, and you’re on your way to 400 ppm and beyond!
” Build a grain silo, Buzz, and you’re on your way to 400 ppm and beyond!”
I guess that could be extrapolated to be accurate but note that the ancients had grain silos and farmed for excess (for the obvious reasons) and C ppm didn’t move until industrial revolution…along with population explosion.
we could equally say develop speech and have an opposable thumb and your on your way to 400 ppm and beyond
Pat – speech and an opposable thumb don’t lead to the creation of silo-guards charged with the protection of stored wealth, nor the need to pay those guards to do their job. Many communities consisting humans that could talk and hold a feather to the light didn’t go down the agricultural path, but instead, trod more delicately on the bosom of their Mother. Farming for excess was not a necessity, it was a choice. The wrong choice, it turns out.’cause, fossil fuels.
and which lifestyle choice became dominant , almost exclusive?
Humans are dominant as they are the most successful manipulators…we manipulate items, we manipulate the environment, we manipulate ourselves and each other….and those most skilled of us at this are deemed successful.
The silo-builders won dominance and are still holding that position as we approach Farmergeddon. That doesn’t sound like a win to me. “The most skilled at this are deemed successful”, indeed, deemed as such by the members of their tribe but regarded as pariah by those who are outside of that culture.
Do you, Pat, believe the environment has been skillfully manipulated, given its present state and outlook?
Well, when your ‘manipulation’ involves guns and visiting ‘total war’ on cultures and societies that may have neither guns nor an appetite for ‘total war’…then sure, ‘your’ way becomes successful 😉
When we cunningly manipulate materials to come up with stuff like diesel engines and then, in short order, re-design them to run on fossil fuel while knowing full well the physics behind fossil fuel combustion (the CO2)…is that even intelligent, never mind successful?
There’s smart stuff and cunning stuff, but wa-aa-a-y over there on the other hand, there’s intelligent stuff.
@ Bill
My manipulation?…”our” manipulation surely?
As to intelligent (or wise) ..I imagine those of our ancestors who founded the worlds various religions were considered wise and intelligent in their time…..little did they know how that would turn out I suspect.
Well, maybe I should have said ‘European civilisation’ instead of the collective ‘your’, seeing as how I was thinking of colonisation when making the comment.
As for religion…yes, I think you’re probably right to say that they were considered wise and what not. Whether the saw themselves that way, or laughed up their sleeves at the very thought of it as they got on with plotting and scheming over how to better accrue more privilege and wealth….
do I believe the environment has been skillfully manipulated?
No…indeed the opposite….but then I have the benefit of hindsight.
So we’ve been lauding the wrong guys and the wrong model.
Time for a new one:
https://www.minds.com/blog/view/370619333145006080
At every point in the humanity’s progress through time there have been humans saying tai hoa to the progress of the “dominant manipulators” (call them what you will). This message is not new, it’s been delivered multiple times, to little effect, until now. ’cause climate change/species extinction/acidic oceans te mea te mea.
time for a new one, agreed….couple of problems however…the existing one will fight like hell and we may be too late
We’re agreed on the need for a new one – good.
That “they’ll” fight is of no consequence, we have no choice but to put 100% of our energies into it. Ditto being maybe “too late”, that “maybe” is all the hope we need. That’s how great challenges are overcome, discounting the opposition and wasting no time.
I’m not preaching optimism here, just the pragmatism required to succeed.
Imagine if…we simply stopped following people and followed ideas instead.
Overnight, this model we have, and all possible variations of this model we have, and all the people who head all the institutions that would defend this model we have, or justify this model we have, and all the people who would hope to exploit or manipulate this model we have – all of that would be gone.
Wouldn’t that be a fine thing?
No bad ideas or dodgy ideas getting forced by someone wielding the delightful instruments of persuasion, such as, the whip or the chain or the gun.
If we only followed ideas, then no-one could ever hope to be followed or ‘lifted up’ by associating themselves with an idea, or by forcing the adoption of an idea.
“Imagine if…we simply stopped following people and followed ideas instead.”
I can Imagine Moses,Mohamed, Bhudda et al saying something similar back in the day….but we digress.
“That’s how great challenges are overcome, discounting the opposition and wasting no time.
I’m not preaching optimism here, just the pragmatism required to succeed.”
that’s the plan….and hope springs eternal….except when it dosn’t
The very nature of hope is that is does spring eternal.
When Pandora’s box emptied so spectacularly, there crouched hope, ready to spring into action.
So if Hope was all that was left inside Pandora’s Box, then what, do you think, was it within Pandora’s Box that created all the despair in the first place…springing eternal an all an all 😉
It’s an old take on it, I know.
Following ideas, Bill?
Which ones?
*edit – what was in the box, Bill. All sorts of opportunities, I imagine.
There was nothing good in Pandora’s Box. Just all the evil (or despair) of the world.
Which ideas? Why, the good ones of course! Okay – very broad brush stroke…
…principally ideas that flourish and that are rooted deep within concepts of meaningful democracy. Ideas, sans illegitimate authority, tend to spread rhizomatically. And ideas that need to be forcibly transplanted or grafted are probably just bad ideas…
…and I’m over trying to work this on a nature angle
Good ideas are those ideas generated by you and your community, that affect you and your community, and that you and your community execute. (note: assume the community to be an elastic and ever changing social entity.)
Bad ideas are those that are imposed from the outside and that disempower those who will be affected.
Ideas that come with a person attached in a way that the person is then afforded authority, are bad ideas. Always. History keeps trying to teach us that lesson and we keep ‘just not getting it’ for some reason.
edit – when I say ‘authority’ I’m referring to permanent, institutional or entrenched authority, not the transient authority that the builder’s knowledge may give the builder on aspects of a building project.
Nothing good in Pandora’s box, Bill?
There was hope for starters.
Those ills you list were already in the world. What was really in Pandora’s box were endless possibilities, some of which represented wise choices for Mankind, others which were disastrous. Once we opened the box and began choosing this and that, our future was determined by those choices. But always, there was hope. Good and bad doesn’t come into it. It’s difficult to converse without using those words, but attempting to is a worthwhile exercise when exploring this topic (the most important topic of all, in my view). There is a dichotomy that is useful though, and that’s life-giving (pro-biotic) and life-taking (anti-biotic). Addressing challenges probiotically gives different results from when antibiotic actions are applied. Adding.v.taking away. Racism in a bi-racial community? Remove one of the parties or bring in a multitude of races to diminish-to-zero the conflict. One dominant ideology creating imbalance and injustice in a community/country/world? Bring in a multitude of ideologies to occupy space being held by the Dominator. Other polarities that are useful models for our new way(s): multiplicity.v.singularity – keep it multitudinous, avoid over-simplification – polyculture.v.monoculture. There’s much more to this, naturally enough, but those starters might stimulate some interest. I apologise for not using the model you offered, I enjoyed reading your comment and agree with your view.
weka, producing less meat and dairy is what I was aiming at in terms of significantly reducing both global and NZ ag GHG emissions, who knows what world you live in though where that necessarily means people becoming vegan.
BTW if you can’t watch something like Cowspiracy or read something like the Bible and not get some value out of it without having to convert to whatever their proselytizing about, that’s not my issue its yours.
For the record again, I’m never becoming vegan, good luck to those who do.
edit – you are full of good ideas and insights that I often learn from, but having discussions with you nowadays is full of fucking minefields and who needs it, thanks.
I’ll just repeat, the only reason I’ve said anything about vegans is because you brought up Cowspiracy and asked me specifically if I thought the film had a point. I answered in good faith 🙂 Personally, I don’t think the vegan issue is particularly relevant to the discussion. It only comes up as a political issue when people use it as a reference point in CC discussions. The meme that is developping around the film is IMO dangerous, which is why I tend to respond in the way I do about it.
“producing less meat and dairy is what I was aiming at in terms of significantly reducing both global and NZ ag GHG emissions,”
I guess there’s an issue there about who is responsible for the dairying GHG emissions, us or the people buying and consuming the products (I think it’s us). My general approach to CC is think global, act local. So we need to think about CC in its global context (because of the obvious), but that we have pretty limited control over other nations and peoples. We can instead act locally, find the solutions that work here, share them with other people, learn from other people , do the politically responsible things (foreign aid, lobbying etc), but let other countries and peoples find their own solutions.
Maybe as well as reducing our GHG emissions, reducing dairying is a service to the rest of the world, both in terms of limiting the supply of meat/dairy, and in demonstrating that a country this size can make a living without polluting. That’s at an ideas level obviously, it’s not like anyone in power is even considering lowering dairying (apart from the Greens). Mostly I think one job at the moment is to initiate discussion of other ways.
That’s why for a number of years I’ve been making comments about regenag (and a post coming soon). It’s technically feasible for NZ to convert its farming to something sustainable right now, there are enough farmers here who have pioneered the techniques. I don’t believe the solution to NZ’s GHG emissions is BAU and GE ryegrass.
As ever it’s the lack of political and public will that’s the problem. Nevertheless there are people who are continuing to do the right thing and if NZ does get it’s act together politically I can see agriculture here changing quite fast.
This article claims that Sandersism has won, whether Bernie wins the nomination or not. The writer might be a bit too optimistic, but the Sanders movement has at least exposed business-as-usual for what it is and is seriously aiming a stake at TINA’s vampire heart.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/seth-abramson/make-no-mistake-sanderism_b_10008136.html
The point being this: the ideological revolution within the Democratic Party has already happened, and Sandersism won. The only question now is how long Democrats and the country will have to wait to see its gains in real-time.
Hopeful Olwyn?
“The Democratic Party as the Clintons remade it in the 1990s is dead, and the most Clinton can do is steer her little ghost-ship a few more miles until it finally wrecks itself on an offshore sandbar.
Clinton may win the battle in 2016, but only political neophytes — and a few Washington Post columnists, I suppose — fail to see that she’s already lost the war.”
I am always a bit cautious in my optimism 🙂 – look at what is happening in Brazil, for instance. I am confident that the third-way left have lost whatever credibility they may have had, but am also aware of how well-resourced and determined the TINA gang are.
+1
And I still can’t see NZ Labour shifting out of the neo-liberal paradigm.
Based on what I’ve heard from members, I can, but it might be a while.
If the Labour Party operated on a ‘one person one vote’ basis, then I’d be inclined to suggest it would already have happened and that Cunliffe would likely still be the leader of the Labour Party. Just look at how UK Labour is changing under Corbyn with their ‘one person one vote’ system – caucus, for all their antipathy towards him and his politics, can’t touch him.
Unfortunately for us in NZ, with a system that allows a caucus 40% of the vote and the unions 15% of the vote…okay, would Corbyn still be leading the UK Labour Party under NZs set up?
I don’t know the numbers and I’m not about to go away and crunch them. But suffice to say I have my doubts.
The Labour caucus and the moderating committee is now largely under the control of the following factions:
1) the “young” careerists, typically 45 and under
2) the right wing, typically 45 plus
The fucked/zero leverage factions are the pro-Cunliffe, formerly pro-Cunliffe, and left wing. I estimate that together they now represent around, or less than, 25% of caucus.
Notice how Little has no faction in caucus to call his own, but he does have affiliate muscle behind him.
Now, IMO Labour has two more General Elections left in it. If it loses both of them (2017 and 2020) it will permanently slide into minor party status (sub 20%).
My call for 2017 is Labour 25% (=2014) +/-3%, with a negative outlook. Labour is unlikely to take the Treasury benches on those numbers.
So the question is – does your comment “but it might be quite a while” suggest a time frame before 2020, or a timeframe after 2020.
If it is after 2020, then Labour is history.
Labour needs to do a Corbyn/Sanders and go full Left wing rather than hanging on to the failed right-wing policies that they have.
Instead, they believe that appealing to the centrist middle class swing voter because they are the ones who decide election outcomes is what they need to do.
@ CV: They need to remember that Key did not win any elections by dumping his core constituency and replacing it with a middle class one – instead he (or Brash before him) consolidated his wealthy, right wing constituency and worked to add the middle class to what he already had.
Indeed, Labour have got the formula wrong. And it shows in their election results.
Interesting typology, CV.
How accurate would you say my list is here ? …
Right Faction
1 Shearer
2 Goff (retiring)
3 King (possibly retiring)
4 Davis
5 Parker
6 Nash
7 Cosgrove (retiring)
8 O’Connor
9 Fa’afoi
Young Careerists Faction
1 Robertson
2 Hipkins
3 Ardern
4 Twyford
5 Curran
6 Clark
7 Mallard (or should he be in Right Faction ?)
8 Woods (or Left ?)
9 Dyson (or Left ?)
Left/Cunliffe/Formerly Cunliffe Faction
1 Cunliffe
2 Mahuta
3 Wall
4 Moroney
5 Sio
6 Tirikatene
7 Lees-Galloway
8 Little (vaguely associated with Left Faction ?)
Not Sure
1 Sepuloni (Left ? / Young Careerist ?)
2 Whaitiri
3 Salesa
4 Henare
5 Williams (Left ? / Young Careerist ?)
6 Rurawhe (Right ?)
Wow wow wow 😎
Approx 85% accurate. A very good job mate. A few of the line calls. Tirikatene and Fa’foi I would place in the careerist camp. Sepuloni former Cunliffe camp. Mallard definitely right. I have my suspicions on some of the newer MPs in the not sure camp but we will let them show their hand a bit more clearly first. Woods careerist, Dyson more left I think.
Oh, someone just mentioned to me that we could actually introduce one full additional category – the ‘hasbeens, never will be’s and incompetents’. A few names would instantly slide out of where they sit now into that new category.
Also swordfish, you may find it interesting to asterisk* the list MPs separately, and to reflect on how they are feeling about life and their political job security in general.
Sepuloni is Left. I wouldn’t describe Twyford , Woods or Dyson as “young careerists”. Especially Dyson. She’s in the twilight of her parliamentary career now.
King is on record as having said she’s definitely standing again but as a list MP. A nice way to hand over the seat to Little? Both Woods and Dyson are more centre Left than right. In the “not sure”category I think most would fall into the centre Left category too.
My goodness there are some lessons for Labour NZ to learn from this excellent Huff Post article, if only they would
As Crown Treaty negotiations with Moriori hit the mainstream media all sorts of old myths and prejudices are oozing out of the Kiwi public. Any Crown settlement with Moriori needs to include not only massive land transfers but a sustained public education campaign: http://readingthemaps.blogspot.co.nz/2016/05/moriori-history-and-treaty-politics.html
A sustained public education programme teaching what?
There is a huge amount yet to be discovered, let alone be certain enough to begin an “education programme”.
the blind leading the blind
. . . .
pre-maori (pre-1300’s approx.) New Zealand is fascinating in its mystic unknowns and old tales…..
… which is all of course entirely separate from the contract the British Crown entered into with Maori some centuries later.
Pretty sure that Moriori know a hell of a lot more about themselves as a people than non-Moriori know. They’re hardly blind. That might be a good place to start.
thanks for the link RTM.
Great read RTM, thanks.
Who lives on Rekohu now? Is it Moriori, the two iwi, and Pākehā?
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/80234058/blessie-gotingcos-family-call-for-support-as-they-consider-suing-corrections
Up to $60,000 now I read.
NOW 106K!!!!!
who’s spotted this in the Herald todayt
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/politics/news/article.cfm?c_id=280&objectid=11642132
There is so much pissing around today in Government..
Just frikkin’ get on and build some housing.. stop talking about it and do it. Get some Crown land, design some low-cost housing, and build it. Should take 12 months maximum….
….. but oh no, can’t do that, must go through “process”, must write reports, must set up committee, must not make decision, must find Minister to make decision, Minister must not make decision without “process”, report, recommendation
this lot are bloody useless
public bodies today are bloody useless
cut through the shit why don’t you. Engage an architect and builder on Monday and get into it…
the incompetence would be funny were it not so serious
and even more funny is that despite National parading themselves as an action government, the history shows (and would certainly be repeated) that it is Labour that would get something like this done much quicker and better
National – useless conservatives since inception
I bet comments will be closed off pretty shortly on that bit of spin
‘A sustained public education programme teaching what?’
Moriori history. Follow the link. Michael King’s Moriori: a people rediscovered is a good lengthier introduction.
‘There is a huge amount yet to be discovered, let alone be certain enough to begin an “education programme”.
Moriori and the scores of scholars who’ve investigated their history disagree.
‘pre-maori (pre-1300’s approx.) New Zealand’
You think the ancestors of Maori got here in the fourteenth century? There are dozens of radiocarbon results for artefacts and sites older than that. Wairau Bar was inhabited in the twelfth century, at least.
‘mystic unknowns and old tales’
I’d be wary about people telling tales of ancient lost civilisations in NZ. They tend to lack training in anything but conspiracy theories.
http://books.scoop.co.nz/2008/11/18/no-to-nazi-pseudo-history-an-open-letter/
http://readingthemaps.blogspot.co.nz/2012/08/new-zealand-old-lemuria.html
It will be interesting to see what history and archaeology discovers in the next 100 years.
I am picking multiple peoples from much further back. I pick this for most of the last parts of the planet to supposedly be inhabited, not just our islands. I am picking several waves of human-type species migrating out of Africa (and/or Asia), yet to be discovered. Anthropology is a very young science, making new discoveries at a fast clip and accelerating. On the threshold of vast new human discoveries methinks …
Assuming we have full and complete knowledge today in 2016 is, well, just silly. See previous history scholars and their past findings cf todays knowledge, in evidence.
Unfortunately though this area of our history gets all tied up in today’s politics to see anything clearly. As you highlight.
This digging around for the truth re: the Moriori is very, very unpopular in some circles.
Yes it is and it always gets in the way
it is interesting – this argument will continue neverendingly imo – too much resting on the right and wrong, too must vesting and investing on it – and that is just the celtic/chinese/giants/alien/egyptian/anyoneexceptMāori settlers before Māori line 🙂
What, along the lines of these?
oops. i had only posted a link. had not intended the paste-job to appear like this and so big. sorry
Not your fault as TS is set to display links to YouTube like this.
Mmmm, I think Jadred Diamond’s Guns Germs and Steel has a more credible thesis.
‘Assuming we have full and complete knowledge today in 2016 is, well, just silly’
Nobody assumes that. What’s silly is to assert that because everything about the past isn’t known nothing can be said about the past. We know, thanks to the work of dozens of scholars, that Moriori were a Polynesian people closely related but distinct from Maori, that they lived in isolation for centuries on the Chathams, that they evolved, over time, an egalitarian and pacifist culture, that they were invaded in 1835, and that the stories created about them by nineteenth century Pakeha and still widely believed by Pakeha are false.
‘I am picking multiple peoples from much further back [settled NZ].’
The trouble is that, despite the efforts of advocates of Celtic and Viking and Atlantean settlement conspiracy theories, evidence is rather thin on the ground. The absence of artefacts and skeletons under the tephra from the Taupo eruptions and the analysis of ancient pollen spores suggests that humans were not living in NZ in any numbers more than a thousand years ago. If the conspiracy theorists were right and an ancient civilisation existed here then we’d expect to find all sorts of stuff under the tephra, as well as evidence from pollen spores and other sources of the presence of rats and the clearance of forests in ancient times.
I think we are on the same page mostly RTM.
Re your last paragraph, noted and aware. “conspiracy theorists” and “ancient civilisations” are terms not conducive to considered thought and debate, but merely rhetoric designed to denigrate. Let’s put those terms to one side..
Sure, evidence is thin on the ground – but as I said, this is a very young science, especially in NZ. There is some evidence, as you note. As more time passes and more digs completed then more will become apparent.
Tell me I am curious – what is your view of Maori history which itself tells of various and numerous people already living here when they arrived?
Time to reassess phones in cars
Well, that’s the stated reason. It’s all bollocks of course. If you take people’s attention away from the road while they’re driving then the chances of them having an accident go up.
The real reason is this:
I assume some rich person somewhere got fined for breaking the law and complained to National about it. And now the attacks on it just being a revenue gatherer for police are coming out.
Actually rich people have flash new cars, flash new cars tether to your smartphone via bluetooth, no problem with the cops there.
‘“conspiracy theorists” and “ancient civilisations” are terms not conducive to considered thought and debate’
In my experience the proponents of claims that non-Polynesians settled NZ thousands of years ago are all motivated at least in part by a far right political agenda, engage in conspiracy theories to try to account for the lack of evidence for their claims, and lack any training in a relevant discipline. In the piece for SRB I linked to earlier I tried to show the neo-Nazi connections of the most high profile proponents of ancient civilisations theory.
‘Sure, evidence is thin on the ground’
Evidence is non-existent, which is why the likes of Martin Doutre and Kerry Bolton have to resort to claims that a vast conspiracy is suppressing evidence.
‘There is some evidence, as you note. As more time passes and more digs completed then more will become apparent.’
There have been thousands of digs around NZ, extensive analysis of environmental evidence like spollen spores, tests of human and rat DNA, and no evidence at all has been found for a pre-Polynesian civilisation. There simply isn’t anything under the tephra left by even the most recent Taupo eruption, which means that humans simply couldn’t have been here thousands of years ago in any numbers.
What’s interesting is the desire of so many Pakeha to believe in something for which we have no evidence.
‘what is your view of Maori history which itself tells of various and numerous people already living here when they arrived?’
There is no single Maori oral history: each iwi has multiple versions of its past, and each is more akin to the oral epics of ancient Greece than to what we understand as history today. Just as we wouldn’t take Homer’s talk of sirens and a cyclops literally, so we shouldn’t take legends of taniwha, fairy folk, hairy men of the bush, kehua, and so on literally.
In my own research I’ve found that even in the twentieth century memories of events got tangled and confused in just a few years.
I don’t get it – you suggest Maori history should be discounted yet use Moriori history in support of a view.. how does that work?
Also this “What’s interesting is the desire of so many Pakeha to believe in something for which we have no evidence. ” – that is not interesting at all. That smacks of the “politics of today” confusing the picture, as mentioned before. Plays no part except in the minds of those with vested interests. Not interested.
. . . . .
Unfortunately I don’t have the time to bat back and forth today. However, when it comes to tales of “fairy folk, tall people, fair-skinned people etc” you do realise those same tales exist in other parts of the globe yes? You don’t think there might be something to them? Like perhaps there were other people around? An earlier species of human out of Africa perhaps? Such as the red deer cave people perhaps https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Deer_Cave_people ?
When do you imagine the last Neanderthal died RTM? Have we found the last one to die?
When did the last mammoth die?
The certainty in your points RTM is not accepted.
This entire area of human history is so very far from certain. It is fascinating. It is also in the very very close past (last mammoth died about 3,000 years ago, and I would suggest the last Neanderthals were around that time too… like yesterday, leading to the legends of yetis and the like). Do you know if Neanderthals ever made it to NZ? Or those other species of human? You do realise we have the worst lands on the planet for preservation of early peoples, with our pluviality and flora growth rates, not to mention erosion and coastal retreat.
“Do you know if Neanderthals ever made it to NZ? ”
Does the quality of thinking on our current right-wing blogs constitute evidence? Has it been established that Neanderthals were expert navigators and sailors like those other cultures who settled here?
Something to make you feel good today. Sign the petition to go to Ann Tolley calling for waiver of the cost of motel accommodation for people in dire straits. The gummint is expecting them to pay it back FGS.
See – http://thestandard.org.nz/petition-to-forgive-emergency-accommodation-debt/
This is an excerpt from the petition. I’m sure that all thoughtful people will agree with the statement. The petition is aiming for 6000 and nearly there so give it a push in the right direction.
Why is this important?
When people are in desperate need, Winz loan people money so they can rent out a motel room as emergency housing. [1] People then have to repay the debt, and many say that is just not possible.
This is a ridiculous and inhumane policy in effect locking people who are already in such dire straits that they are homeless, into further debt.
Furthermore, it does nothing to solve the housing crisis and is open to exploitation by the Motel owners, and the people themselves have little choice but to agree.
In some cases, providing the people travelling have a current passport, it maybe cheaper for them to go overseas to visit family or a travel package until a house is made available. Travel insurance would be required. At least a trip would be a stress braker.
People have been financed by the government to travel to Australia for cancer treatment.
It would not surprise me that people are so pushed over the edge that they may contemplate the unthinkable. (It is fine if this comment is removed).
I beg to differ, vto: I think the attitude you represent is interesting, because in my experience it is widespread amongst Pakeha.
You haven’t spent much time thinking about the history of these islands’ Polynesian inhabitants and their ancestors in the tropical Pacific, but you have a very strong desire to believe in an ancient civilisation that is extremely unlikely to have existed here. You combine, in other words, a lack of interest in the real history of this part of the world with a fascination with a fantasy history. I think that this combination of incuriosity and fantastic yearning is a symptom of the fact that many Pakeha still don’t feel entirely at home down here in New Zealand. It reflects a sort of unease that I think some of our finest poets and artists diagnose.
‘you suggest Maori history should be discounted yet use Moriori history in support of a view’
I’ve been talking about the understanding of the history of Moriori that has been built up out of hard evidence – artefacts excavated, words analysed, skeletons studied, old texts recovered and interpreted and so on – not about old legends taken at face value. Legends about ancient events have to be taken very carefully, especially when they are full of supernatural events.
If you want to use the various legends of iwi as evidence for a pre-Maori civilisation, because some of these legends include stories of pale-skinned fairy folk and hairy men of the bush, then you’ve got to explain why you’re not also using the taniwha and so on. But even if you want to press the scattered traditions of fairy folk into service as evidence for ancient pale-skinned settlers of these islands, you run into the insurmountable obstacle of the complete absence of material evidence for such settlers. There’s nothing under the tephra.
‘perhaps there were other people around? An earlier species of human out of Africa perhaps?’
So you think there was a wave of white-skinned people that came out of Africa tens of thousands of years ago and had the aquatechnology to spread all the way to NZ, when the Europeans couldn’t even get to the Azores until less than a thousand years ago, and that these ancient settlers left no trace of their coming except some Maori folk tales about fairies who hid in the bush and played flutes? I guess you could work taniwha into your theory, and claim that the fairies rode them across the ocean to these islands.
‘When do you imagine the last Neanderthal died RTM?’
I’m not sure what this has to do with NZ history, but the last Neanderthals died out about thirty thousand years ago at the bottom of the Iberian peninsula.
‘When did the last mammoth die?’
About four thousand years ago on Wrangel Island.
Archaeology is a wonderful thing, isn’t it? We can know about Neanderthals and mammoths, and we can discard claims about ancient civilisations in NZ after digging and finding nothing to support them.
‘You do realise we have the worst lands on the planet for preservation of early peoples’
How did you get this idea? We have a very good stratigraphic record, with the tephra laid down nicely in layers. We’re not like a tropical atoll, where stratigraphy is very hard to establish.
‘Do you know if Neanderthals ever made it to NZ?’
With their sophisticated aquatechnology, who knows? Seriously, I think you’ve wandered down a pretty curious path here.
RTM, is there a reason you aren’t using the reply buttons and keeping this conversation in one thread? It would be easier to follow if you did.
Sorry RTM but your assumptions about me discount your otherwise known, though conservative and status quo, points. Example:
“You haven’t spent much time thinking about the history of these islands’ Polynesian inhabitants and their ancestors in the tropical Pacific, but you have a very strong desire to believe in an ancient civilisation that is extremely unlikely to have existed here”……. is horseshit and you have no way of knowing what you claim there about what I have been looking into.. I have no desire to believe anything thanks. It is a curiousity borne of many seemingly illogical facts.
The rest of your comment is similarly presumptive and emotive … for example, continual use of the words “ancient civilization” with all its underlying implications of great cities and fortifications and associated infrastructure. I have mentioned none of that. You do.
I just love the certainty that some people have about the past and the future – they make me smile. You are right up there with that certainty RTM, evidenced by this comment “There’s nothing under the tephra.”
If only humans in the past had been so certain about the future eh RTM… you are a ground-breaker with your certainty that the past is now known, … lol
. .
here is a question for you: how many tonnes of pounamu were found spread across Aotearoa when the Europeans arrived?
🙄
You can lead a horse to water…
do you know why sometimes a horse wont drink the water it is shown?
Yes: because contradictory facts harden false beliefs.
no
because it is not suitable for drinking
http://thespinoff.co.nz/media/20-05-2016/you-asked-where-are-the-women-in-nz-boardrooms-here-they-are/
Interesting article on the Spinoff about the dearth of women in NZ business, though there is the odd inclusion of Paula Bennett in the list. Is it a joke/irony? Any thoughts?
Maybe because of this?
http://www.odt.co.nz/news/queenstown-lakes/384008/anecdotes-entertain-conference
Conference of NZ business women with Bennett as guest speaker. Why was she a speaker for women in business? I have no idea.
That could be it, but I agree it’s odd that she’s conflated with ‘women crushing it in New Zealand business’. It’s bizarre.
I know, right? Her advice was to “work hard & not take yourself seriously”.
Meanwhile, in India…what 51°C can look like.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/20/indians-demand-government-action-after-temperatures-hit-51c
Any thoughts?
Good at wrecking, e.g. state housing.
agreed
80k + priviledge = 0
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11639591
10 fish + brown skin = jail
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11641836
THIS is what is wrong with our country
But it was a white man’s fish he stole marty!
As an aside, it’s interesting they appear to be charged through the Conservation Act for removing fish that are an introduced apex predator (and are recognised as one of the biggest threats to native fish species) in the NZ environment. But who am I to question..
“One law for all” !!! Man I feel for the poacher, his ‘crime’ is being brown, our justice system needs some work.
Like I said “white man’s fish” 😉
That is appallingly bad. It’s like something out of the 19th century.
hear hear
& congrats to Murdoch for winning Canon Media Award for Political Cartooning, she’s one of the more abrasive anti-right wing ones too, amazing recognition for a great political cartoonist in a field rich in brilliant biting political cartoonists.
Mr Chomsky speaking sense again
http://www.theguardian.com/film/2016/may/20/noam-chomsky-on-donald-trump-almost-a-death-knell-for-the-human-species
While looking up a report referred to by Madtom on the Charter schools post, I found this analysis of the present financial situation in the world.
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2016/05/the-new-abnormal-disequilibrium-flirting-with-deflationary-depression.html
20 May 2016 posted by Yves Smith
But despite describing the current state of dislocation fairly well, he seems unable to grasp that we are close to the end of the 35 year neoliberal paradigm, which substituted asset price booms and increased consumer access to borrowing for policies that focused on increasing average worker wages. In the topsy-turvy world of the new orthodoxy, worker prosperity was bad because…gasp…it might create inflation!
And economists and policymakers have done such a splendid job of fighting the last war long after the inflation threat was vanquished that they are now on the verge of creating deflation, which is far more destructive than inflation, particularly in debt-burdened economies….
The very fact that these monetary innovations are unprecedented means that their impact is unpredictable. This necessarily increases the scope for policy errors and conflicts. Indeed, the lack of consensus on what needs or can be done is palpable. One sign that all is not well is the recent emergence of a vitriolic debate about helicopter money, whereby central banks create money to distribute to citizens directly or via the government.
And on avoiding tax owing by USA corporates sending funds overseas.
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2016/05/bogus-defenses-of-tax-dodging-corporate-inversions.html
Posted by Yves Smith 20 May 2016
The crucial motive in transferring corporations’ “nationality” and official headquarters to low-tax nations is that inversions shield the “foreign” profits of U.S. corporations from federal taxation and ease access to these assets. This protects total U.S. corporate profits held outside the United States—a stunning $2.1 trillion—from any U.S. corporate taxes until they are “repatriated” back to the United States.
Major corporations benefit hugely from the infinite deferral of taxes purportedly generated by their foreign subsidiaries. “If you are a multinational corporation, the federal government turns your tax bill into an interest-free loan,” wrote David Cay Johnston, Pulitzer-Prize winning writer and author of two books on corporate tax avoidance. Thanks to this deferral, he explained, “Apple and General Electric owe at least $36 billion in taxes on profits being held tax-free offshore, Microsoft nearly $27 billion, and Pfizer $24 billion.”
Nonetheless, top CEOs and their political allies constantly reiterate the claim that the U.S. tax system “traps” U.S. corporate profits overseas and thereby block domestic investment of these funds. But these “offshore” corporate funds are anything but trapped outside the United States. “The [typical multinational] firm … chooses to keep the earnings offshore simply because it does not want to pay the U.S. income taxes it owes,” explains Thomas Hungerford of the Economic Policy Institute. “This is a very strange definition of ‘trapped’.”
doesn’t make for pleasant reading does it
Linda Tirado on RNZ 8.40am Sunday
http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/sunday
@ mickysavage
You left an interesting note recently in a comment by Mike Bond on AL’s alleged visit to that overcrowded house.
You may be interested that the NZ Herald blundered tonight and briefly posted on its website a piece by good old Rodney Hide that is to appear tomorrow I presume. It has since been removed from the NZH website but can still be found at http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:eS7z9Cj8BmYJ:www.nzherald.co.nz/opinion/news/article.cfm%3Fc_id%3D466%26objectid%3D11642642+&cd=3&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=nz