The Waitangi Tribunal red flagged the ongoing disparities in Māori health last year. It determined a likely cause of disparities was racism, both systemic and personal, and stereotyping in the health system.
If Māori were treated the same as non-Māori in health, the tribunal found, there should be no difference in health outcomes or interventions.
"On February 6, 2020, weather stations recorded the hottest temperature on record for Antarctica. Thermometers at the Esperanza Base on the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula reached 18.3°C (64.9°F)—around the same temperature as Los Angeles that day. The warm spell caused widespread melting on nearby glaciers.
The warm temperatures arrived on February 5 and continued until February 13, 2020. The images above show melting on the ice cap of Eagle Island and were acquired by the Operational Land Imager (OLI) on Landsat 8 on February 4 and February 13, 2020."
We's fucked. It's over. "How fast?" is the only question I still have. (Sort of, as in "How much time elapses between the body impacting on the ground at a great rate of knots and the actual moment of death?")
Given that quite a few seem to have trouble reading what is actually written here I’d suggest they leave the mindreading out of it. It can easily lead to putting words into people’s mouths and making stupid assumptions and attributions, which usually lead to a war of words instead of robust debate.
Given that the pressure on Moderators will increase in Election Year there is bound to be less mindreading and more direct action. For example, some might find themselves shunted onto the Blacklist till Moderators have time and energy to sort out things whilst protecting the flow of comments and debate (and writing Posts!).
PS CV was before my time as Moderator on this site; I’ve had it relatively easy so far 😉
@ Muttonbird: don’t blame us for your predicament. It will be sorted so be patient till the Moderator has time to look into it; you can help (i.e. make it easier for all involved) or hinder and that is for you to choose. My personal advice: choose (your words) wisely. No more communication from me on this.
Climate is more than a day taken in isolation. Taking a single day in isolation looks remarkably like cherry picking which is a classic climate change denier technique.
As for history: needs relevant context, which you (funnily enough) fail to give.
Quite correct. But when Robert said that the hottest day on record has been recorded in Antarctica, you didn’t respond. That’s your prerogative but it’s hard to take you seriously. If you wish to call him a climate denier, you are welcome to do so. But given his previous comments on climate change, I think you’d be well wide of the mark.
That’s a reasonable comment albeit that Robert’s comment @ 2 was in line with CC, based on a recent observation, and he has no form as a CC ‘sceptic’ or denier.
If your post was meant to be a reply to Robert's then why didn't your make it one?
Why I questioned you: you have form and have run these sort of distractions before. Robert's posting history shows he generally understands climate whereas yours contains repeated climate denial lines. As I said, context is important…
Did you bother to read the article about Antarctica? It provides some context: warm temperatures becoming more frequent this century when they were previously rare.
As you interested in climate history, perhaps you could look up what happened last time there was very high atmospheric CO2. What was Antarctica covered in?
I read you as a reasonably smart contributor here; so I offer this simple, concrete explanation. Imagine people are walking past your shop doorway and you're measuring and recording their height (a simple smart camera would do the job).
Over the period of a week or so you'd notice that the data fell within a certain upper and lower limit. (You'd also quickly notice the bi-modal difference between males and females, but for the sake of the analogy, lets set that aside.) The actual height of any given person would be both stochastic and normally distributed within this range. The vast majority of people fall within 3 standard deviations of the average. Hopefully this 101 Statistics is familiar to you.
Interestingly you'd find some extreme outliers that happen at very low frequencies, but they are very rare. What is more interesting is that the reason why they are such outliers often has underlying medical causes that puts the reason for their extreme into a different class than the usual causes of height variation. Or imagine you were recording the temperature in a room on a daily basis, that was usually held between 20 – 30 degC. Then one day the data came back at -40degC for just that one day, then returned to normal. Is this real data? It's way more likely this one day was because the instrument had been turned off, rather than representing a real variation. On this basis it's reasonable to discard this extreme outlier because it will contaminate the long term record if you leave it in.
But then if you leave the camera recording long enough something else becomes apparent; over the period of decades the average height slowly increases. The change is far too small to notice on a daily or even yearly basis, but as a whole generation passes by it becomes obvious. At the large secondary school I went to I was one of the two or three tallest, but these days I get a crick in my neck looking up at them.
Note carefully … while the frequency of very tall kids between say 184 and 194cm has increased significantly, the frequency of the extreme outliers (274cm) has not … because the reason why they are so extreme is not driven by the underlying mechanism (improved nutrition in this case) that is causing the average height to rise.
Sorry if this is a laborious explanation, hopefully the parallel to climate change is obvious to you. I've made this point a few times now; both climate deniers and alarmists indulge in cherry picking weather events and climate to suit their agenda. They also frequently misrepresent extreme events without properly attributing them.
In simple terms climate is just weather trended to a 30 year basis. What we clearly see in the data is that over this time frame, average temperatures everywhere are rising. Case closed. What we don't know, and this is critical to understand, is what impact the increasing heat energy in the system is going to have on the variability of the weather and what impact on extreme events this will have. It’s reasonable to hypothesise that variability will increase but exactly how and where is not obvious; case definitely still open.
Various govts over the years have attempted to make life bearable for those in need: give $50 winter heating allowances, meals at school, hardship allowances, etc.
When will those in power ever learn to fix the cause not try a bandage cure the symptoms ? if benefits, wage conditions are inadequate why not go the rather root ? Or do they not trust those in need to spend the $ wisely ?
Rent caps only work if there are enough homes already. Say, after a big state house building programme or when financial speculation incentives are structurally removed from the system.
I bought a piece of art in a NZLP auction. Can't remember what I paid for it, a print. But I got no favours for it.
I once donated, with permission from the artist, an art work for auction. It went for a good sum. I was given it by the artist who has since died, thereby immeasurably increasing its value. The painting was bought by a National party supporter who I know. I hope she is enjoying it, because she got no favours either apart from owning a fine painting by a top artist which is appreciating in value. Sometimes, just sometimes, there is nothing ulterior but a good deal all round. I lost a painting, another person got it, the NZLP got a good donation- all happy.
I bought a piece of art in a NZLP auction. Can't remember what I paid for it, a print. But I got no favours for it, except for seeing it every day.
I once donated, with permission from the artist, an art work for auction. It went for a good sum. I was given it by the artist who has since died, thereby immeasurably increasing its value. The painting was bought by a National party supporter who I know. I hope she is enjoying it, because she got no favours either apart from owning a fine painting by a top artist which is appreciating in value. Sometimes, just sometimes, there is nothing ulterior but a good deal all round. I lost a painting, another person got it, the NZLP got a good donation- all happy.
Can you point otherwise? To what personal benefit this man has achieved from buying an art work? You're saying that $10 grand buys influence? That's pretty cheap…….. in at least two ways.
You need at least $200 grand it seems for two MPs of superior quality.
Agree. And I have a similar proposition regarding private schools:
that private schools should be allowed to retain their 'special character' in curriculum, etc, but that in funding per student they should be strictly kept down to that of state schools.
'I won’t lie, the last two polls aren’t looking good for us. Last night’s poll marks the second in a row that indicate we are at risk of falling below the 5% threshold'
I actually wanted to know if the email was correct and that kiwiblog wasn't telling porkies, I'm well aware that NZFirst are well below the threshold and that the Greens are floundering (#labournomates) and its a beautiful thing to see
Well you will be pleased to know that the huge group of "undecided" means that your concern may well be misplaced. The government is also showing that they can still achieve a lot even with a party that is trying to position itself to appeal to National voters who may well be looking for another home. The mutual respect means that any of the three parties can advise that they will not support particular legislation; without that breaking the government. No small party has flourished from trying to work with National, who do not understand working with others; it was good that Bridges made his position clear. I am confident that the Green Party will achieve over 5%; I am however disappointed that the government did not accept the recommendation from the review to reduce the 5% threshold.
Why didn’t you actually ask the question that you actually wanted to know?
– I did
After that it was all moot wasn't it, Incognito was assuming I had ulterior motives for the question I asked whereas I actually asked the question I wanted an answer for
Your first attempt at a question @ 6 was vague, ambiguous, and pretty much unanswerable to anyone who had not read the post on KB or even for those who had read it. Your Q was followed by a link to divert traffic away to the sewer blog and quoted text that was self-evident.
Then, @ 6.1.1, you state that you actually wanted to know about the e-mail address, which you could have explained in the first place @ 6.
Diverting traffic to KB is generally not a good idea and with your personal political preferences, it was a logical assumption that this was your false pretence. Never mind, you would not have admitted it in any case.
Why ask if the e-mail address is legit if you have no interest whatsoever in sending them an e-mail?
Your diversion and wind-ups are time wasters and not “political and interesting”, IMO.
A rhetorical Q does not require an A but you seem unable to stop bleating.
So, here we are, answering your Q that you actually don’t give a toss about. Let’s just say that you have burnt quite a bit of credit with me for no gain whatsoever. Consider it throwing away money at a silent auction and leaving empty-handed.
The Green Party campaign director going out into print like that is a really clear public warning that there's a really good chance the Green Party is about to go the way of the Maori Party.
Even in a mediocre government run by inherited surpluses and a single person's charisma, the Green delivery has been the standout worst since 2017.
.
Latest UMR / CB / RR Polls were conducted 7-8 months out from the 2020 Election.
Based on results from the same Pollsters at the same point in the run-up to previous Elections going back to 1999 … & making a few crucial assumptions about differing electoral contexts (always a tricky business) … I'm still predicting that:
Consider NZF Poll support at the same point during their last 2 stints in Govt:
I'll use Colmar Brunton as an example:
2008
Colmar Brunton
April 2008 (same point out from Election): 1.5%
(Up 2.57 points on this at subsequent Election)
CB 4 Poll Average (Dec 2007-April 2008):: 1.9%
(Up 2.17 points on this at subsequent Election)
CB Average over previous 12 Months: 2.2%
(Up 1.87 points on this at subsequent Election)
2008 Election Result (Party Vote): 4.07%
1999
Colmar Brunton
April 1999 (same point out from Election): 2%
(Up 2.26 points at subsequent Election)
CB 4 Poll Average (Dec 1998-April 1999): 2.2%
(Up 2.06 points at subsequent Election)
CB Average over previous 12 Months: 2.2%
(Up 2.06 points at subsequent Election)
1999 Election Result (Party Vote):4.26%
2020
Colmar Brunton
Feb 2020 (same point out from Election): 3.3%
CB 4 Poll Average (July 2019 – Feb 2020): 3.8%
CB Average over previous 12 Months: 4.1%
2020 Election Result (Party Vote): looking very 5.5-6.0%
A similar comparison with UMR figures suggests something broadly similar, while TV3 Reid Research / CM stats would suggest NZF are heading a little lower (close to the 5% threshold).
So, the upshot of all of that – plus one or two assumptions about differing political / electoral contexts – plus a little bit of magic – leads me inexorably towards a 2020 NZF Party Vote of 5.7% …
Thats cool but dont think Bridges ruling out Winnie will have an impact on his right leaning voters, they won't be happy knowing a vote for Winnie is a vote for Labour and all that
Oppo Leader John Key also ruled out forming a coalition or entering any kind of support arrangement with NZ First in the run-up to the 2008 Election …
… and yet, as you can see, NZF still ended 2.6 points higher (at the 2008 Election) than they were polling in the Colmar Brunton 7 months out (ie the same point we're at currently).
Thanks for that, swordfish. Do you have similar information for NZF for the Colmar Brunton polls for 2011, 2014 and 2017? I would be interested to see whether the same trends happened then between the polls and election results – but only if you have the info readily available.
I think it’s most useful / appropriate to focus on NZF’s two stints in Govt (though, of course, they were ailing third term administrations = so no perfect comparisons).
Thanks for the extra information, swordfish. Really appreciate it.
I agree that it is probably "most useful / appropriate to focus on NZF’s two stints in Govt (though, of course, they were ailing third term administrations = so no perfect comparisons)". However, it is also interesting to see that the trends appear to have continued for the 2011 and 2014 elections. Re the 2017 election, the opposite downward trend in actual result is not surprising given the high polling and the extraordinary events that took place pre-election.
I have also tracked down your various predictions etc in Oct and Aug 2019 here on TS and looking at the whole lot together is now on my To Do list but have a few other priorities to be cleared before that can happen. Thanks again.
Not trying to be funny but don't the Greens have a thing about equal gender representation and currently they 8 MPs but only two males…so a split of 75-25
Mind you I suppose he could be sacked and still stay on
I haven't been back and checked the email, but that quote matches my memory of it. However, the email was a request for donations, which always come with a message about how the county is doomed if you don't bung the party some dosh right away. This one was no different in that respect, and DPF's post is just the usual "fomenting happy mischief" in the interests of the National Party.
Oh, for sure. I tend towards the view that the country would quite literally be doomed if the Greens fall below 5%, so I immediately bunged the party some dosh as requested. I don't think many in Labour share that opinion about the value of the Greens, though.
I suspect the Greens have more support in Labour than you imagine – quite a few people do "christmas tree" voting (Labour and Green), and the smart way would be to electorate Labour and party vote Green, as they're the ones closest to the threshold.
NZ1, on the other hand, I reckon most Labour and Greens could take or leave. Supergold card good, immigration, guns, fossil fuel policies bad lol.
I hope you're right that I'm wrong(!) about Labour in this respect.
… quite a few people do "christmas tree" voting (Labour and Green)...
Me too. Apologies to whoever the Green candidate in my electorate will be, but I probably won't even learn your name – keeping the Labour electorate MP as this electorate's MP will be my priority.
Yep. The email to members/supporters/donor is just normal fundraising technique. I get these all the time from Labour saying how hard the fight is going to be and how every little bit helps. Will you chip in?
Farrar may as well have done a post on each Party's election year email correspondence with their supporters but he chose to highlight the Greens' email because that is the Party he is most afraid of this week.
I like it! I mean my one hope for the election was to see Winnie gone, didn't care who got into power as long as Winnie was gone but to see the Greens floundering at this stage in the cycle is just the cherry on the top.
Lets face it Winnies going to be going at the Greens big time from now until the election to get back into parliament so its going to be a rough ride for them
Maybe if they get a shellacking in the election it might force them to think of a better way, a way to be able to work with all parties for the sake of the environment…
Remind me again why the 5% threshold is a Good Thing? Remind me again why doing deals with electorate seats because of the MMP rule giving parties with electorate seat/s a % of the seats commensurate with their party vote , but otherwise restricting minor parties to a 5% threshold?
So far people on this blog have advocated for special deals for three parties, Greens, ACT and NZF. I bet others would welcome TOP with 2.4% on the 2017 vote, the Conservatives etc.
I am sure that a Green/NZF % would outweigh a ACT, Conservative, TOP, Maori league.
It might even encourage the full impact of MMP by inducing the National Party to shrug off its factions and devolve into at least two parties similar to the ones it coalesced from in the Thirties.
Well I'd like MMP changed (no I don't want FPP), last election the largest party has nothing to do with government and to me thats wrong because that means 44% of the voters are ignored.
This election it looks like Labour will be a one term govt and as much as I'll enjoy the wailing and gnashing of teeth of the left (and I will) it'll still be a really large percentage of voters that're now ignored.
Is MMP the best electoral system, can it be improved? If the threshold can be lowered then what other changes can be made to make the system fairer?
If the polls you are citing are correct, then it would easily be possible that the party/coalition with a higher percentage of the vote would goive way to one party with a buy-in deal in Epsom with a lower vote.
FFP has dealt that situation in NZ before. One reason why we went to MMP. Now the intricacies of MMP could deliver the very same result if the Greens and NZF were to fall below the 5% threshold without buy-in deals in Nelson, Auckland Central, Northland as have been suggested.
No wonder that you predict even four seats for ACT
A large proportion of the Epsom electorate are very well informed (and another part is not, when you look at the number of votes for the other candidates!). However, in other electorates there may be too many “low info” voters to pull it off so this makes these a risky proposition. There’s something counter-intuitive or counter-instinctive to vote for the enemy to win the war and obviously many can’t bring themselves to doing it.
“He’s really well liked up there”. Not by anyone I know. And the Labour and Green candidates got more votes than he did last time round so many locals clearly think it’s time for him to go.
He then won the Nelson electorate in 1996 which hes held ever since, a couple of points to note is that his lowest voting turnout was 2017 when he only got 40% of the vote plus prior to Nick Smith Labour had held that seat since 1957
So you and your friends may not like him but enough people certainly do
Reading comprehension does not seem to be your strong point. You have not rebutted Prickles’ comment at all. Nick Smith’s share of the vote went down by 12.13% and the combined vote of the Labour and Green’s candidates was higher than Nick’s.
Only 40.69% of the Nelson voters voted for him, and 53.97% for Labour+Greens but they were ignored. This wrong should be corrected in September, don’t you agree?
And Nick Smith last gained in % support in 2008. Going down ever since (although one was almost level). Wonder if it's a demographic change in the electorate.
"Only 40.69% of the Nelson voters voted for him, and 53.97% for Labour+Greens but they were ignored. This wrong should be corrected in September, don’t you agree?"
I agree, ignoring that many votes is not good at all.
Maybe a power sharing model oer something could be instigated or maybe STV could give a clearer decision.
From what I can gather from speaking to people across the political spectrum here at the top of the South (not just my friends and family – some of whom, incidentally, are blue to the depths of their souls – family that is, not friends so much) even the blue ones think that nick smith has passed his use-by date. Of course when he is at the market he surrounds himself with sycophants. He’s not so keen in taking the time to speak to anyone with a different perspective on what is important. He does, however, deign to speak to anyone slightly red or green who may enable him to get his photo in the local paper. Many locals are embarrassed to have him “representing” us. The only person nick smith represents is nick smith.
Just a asde, PR, when I got a reverse mirror view of my back, I was astonished to see how old age had brought on hairiness, almost as much as the chest. Have you checked your own back lately? I suspect that you may have already grown those hairs you offer on condition. Or they will soon appear anyway. You may then consider yourself as paying a debt.
According to the simplistic belief about democracy, up to 49% of the voters are ‘ignored’ at any given time (and sometimes more). In your thinking, it is wrong to ignore 44.4% of the voters but is it ok to then ignore 36.9% of the voters?
You sound like a semi-utilitarian.
Is MMP the best electoral system, can it be improved? If the threshold can be lowered then what other changes can be made to make the system fairer?
"This election it looks like Labour will be a one term govt and as much as I'll enjoy the wailing and gnashing of teeth of the left (and I will) it'll still be a really large percentage of voters that're now ignored."
I don't want a really large percentage of voters ignored
I don’t want a really large percentage of voters ignored
MMP is a step in the right direction but not a magic bullet. The FPP mentality is still strong, partly because it underpins the status quo.
Contrary to common belief, irrespective of who’s in Government, nobody is more or less ignored and status quo prevails, by and large. This is good and bad because there are definitely members of (our own as well as the global) society who are literally on the cliff’s edge or are falling between the cracks. Nobody seems to give a rat’s arse because they all are too busy looking at and appeasing the ‘majority’ or the ‘centre’.
This next election is basically a FPP election. Labour (maybe the Greens sneak in) v National (with a couple of Act seats), NZ (the media?) just doesn't seem to "get" MMP
I mean I'm legit in wanting to see National and the Greens compromise to work together or Labour and Act or even National and Labour (they have more in common than differences)
I just think that no party has all the answers, National need some prompting from the left, the Greens need some conservatives to smooth out the edges etc etc
I believe there is more cooperation and collaboration going on than the SMS make us believe. It is in the MSM’s interest to magnify differences and contrast these as insurmountable fault lines. The public seems to swallow this without choking. Interestingly, and dare I say it, many political blogs and their commentariats seem to be even worse …
Your statement pretty much defines you as a idiot politically.
I’d say that the probability of NZF getting back in approaches certainty – simply because they are small targeting their audience. Of course that is why their audience doesn’t get picked up in polling. Cynical buggers those NZF voters – they don’t talk to pollsters and never really have. The small audience is course why the Nats are gunning for them again – but using the same tactic and pretext as last time. FFS how stupid are those impotent dildos?
And what rough edges? Problem with the greens is that politically they don’t have them. It makes it hard for them to develop a ‘voice’. And BTW: conservationist parties of the type you’re wanting basically don’t exist politically. Offhand I can think of about 8 in my lifetime. They lose their deposits.
The important difference between National and Labour is that Labour thinks longer term and is more fiscally prudent on a long term basis. No point in trying to do what National does of developing a beneficiary bashing strategy as National does if all that means is that the opportunities are closed off for their kids. Cutting taxes for Labour is what you do AFTER you manage to grow the whole economy rather than just giving to their donors to squander. etc..
In my opinion National are short-term accountants who can’t think past their own wallets and their prejudices, and who hate to invest in a future. They are inherently economic wastrals because they selfishly don’t consider the whole of our future together.
In other words, if Labour headed down your proposed path, then I’d have a great deal of satisfaction in raising a revolution. It is the reason why Shearer was a darling of the right and something that a lot of us helped kick out.
Well as the self-proclaimed worlds greatest sy-sop I bow to your greater knowledge in all things political
[lprent: self-proclaimed worlds greatest sy-sop. That is an outright lie. Banned until October 2021 – unless you make a public abject apology or find evidence that I actually said or wrote that phrase.
From my memory this was just some dumbarse meme made up by one of the fools from kiwiblog. And you have had similar bans for this before. ]
impotent dildos – they vibrate all over the place saying that they have a purpose and a reason for existence, but never actually even try to do something about achieving it. Instead other people waste far too much time on them.
I don't want a really large percentage of voters ignored
Oh, it's worse than that. The binning of their votes effectively redistributes their vote share to parties they didn't vote for. That's the whole basis of National trying to drive NZF below the threshold, eg suppose a hypothetical example of 100 votes, of which National gets 46 and 10 votes are wasted. National goes from having 46 out of 100 votes to 46 out of 90, so its vote share goes from 46% to 52% and a ruling majority. That's the unspoken reason for National and Labour setting the threshold so high in the first place.
– 5% helps stop loony extremists get in to Parliament. Doesn't stop them, but it helps.
– doing deals is completely part of the cooperative nature of MMP
– bringing in one or two MPs with deals can however add a bit of spice to a government, and even one or two good big concepts. Painful as it was, we wouldn't have merged Auckland without it.
– National MPs know which way their bread is buttered. There's only the Alliance to look to on that lesson. They have a really good chance at winning this year – unusually after only one term and new leadership.
1. The Commission unanimously recommended the adoption of mixed member proportional, with a threshold of 4% and that a referendum be held before or at the 1987 election. [my italics]
Interesting five recommendations that I had forgotten about.
The Commission unanimously recommended the adoption of mixed member proportional, with a threshold of 4% and that a referendum be held before or at the 1987 election.
They also recommended that the Māori seats be abolished, with Māori parties instead receiving representation if they did not pass the threshold.
That the number of MPs raise to 120 (although they considered 140 would be ideal, they realised that it would receive too much public backlash).
The term of Parliament be raised to four years.
The Commission recommended that citizens initiated referendumsnot be implemented. However, they were in 1993.
In essence, no recommendations were adopted since the only one adopted was in itself a compromise position over MP numbers.
If the Greens and NZF were below 5% as some pundits predict for September 2020 was my starting point. Funnily enough, when some political questionnaire came out in 2017, I was closest to TOP, they said. I was surprised at that; so definitely not loony!
I’m not frightened by the NZF left faction, and the Greens when not reduced to their authoritarian rump are also fine with me as partners.
It's quite an extremist conformity view that you have to have at least 1 in 20 of your fellow citizens to share a similar set of beliefs in order to not be labelled a loony extremist.
Me, I'd be happier holding off labeling someone a loony extremist until those sharing their set of beliefs falls below 1 in 120 of the population.
On the money, IFL. The Nat voting centre-right are disciplined enough to recognise that they have to accommodate their factions within the party. That's why there is a bit of a move to the right in their pronouncements, and candidate selection, to shore up their support there.
Labour supported merging Auckland’s councils, and the Nats led most of the work on it with Rodney as a convenient figleaf. Would have happened without his party.
Without a convenient yellow figleaf they would have had to acknowledge more of the extreme elements as their own party’s agenda. Much like charter schools, etc. Guess that may have been unpalatable enough to discard. As it was, they did not go through with subsequently privatising Watercare.
If "looney extremists" are what some voters want why shouldn't they get into parliament. NZ is deemed to be a democracy when all is said and done. Better to have a zero threshold and let the chips fall where they may. The high 5% threshold benefits only the status quo.
Today's "looney extremist " party may well be tomorrow's majority party.
You are demonstrating an attitude that, I am sorry to say, is closer to a National Party ethos than that of The Green Party, Labour or even NZ First. National are careful about what they say in public, but their policies and decisions when in government have demonstrated they are prepared to write off a large segment of our population. Labour and the Green Party have demonstrated that they are about all New Zealanders – they want thriving businesses to create the equal opportunities that National only pays lip service to. NZ First has positioned itself as being between National and other parties – the 'keep them honest'" mantra that worked well for "Captain Sensible". All three however are looking to govern for all New Zealanders. If we truly believe in equal opportunity, respect for others, then we must accept that our personal views will not be held by all. To promote a system for our elections that seeks to make it hard for new parties to start, or to exclude smaller parties due to an arbitrary level of votes that they have to achieve, is in my view destructively elitist. Your attitude towards NZ First is disrespectful to a large number of New Zealanders , and essentially bordering on being anti-democratic. I appreciate that many see politics as if it is a card game – it has meaning for most New Zealanders that is beyond that level; do not demean whatever party you support by effectively saying that some people matter more than others.
Yeah Nelsons probably the best option, once he retires that is. I've been up to Nelson at Christmas time the last few years and Nick Smith just seems really popular (this was at the Nelson market to be fair) so many people at his tent and hardly ayone else at the others
I'd be very surprised if the PM goes for any deal anywhere though.
I don’t think so either but I think it is largely irrelevant for two reasons:
One, will the electorate in question actually understand the ‘hint’, ‘suggestion’, ‘guidance’, or ‘instruction’ to vote for their non-preferred candidate to change the chances (possible outcome) of a certain coalition deal in Wellington?
Two, voters are free to vote in the way they see fit and nobody, not even the PM, can make them vote in another way, thankfully.
Epsom seems to be the only electorate so far that has shown enough political nous to pull it off successfully. Barry Coates and David Parker had 9,852 votes combined, which could have been used to try thwarting the National/ACT deal.
Dunno about Saunders, but he certainly wouldn't want to go against Sanders. Trump fears Bernie almost as much as the corrupt and delusional DNC fears him.
Trump knows, just as well as you and everyone else knows, that in every metric, Bernie Sanders outperformed Trump in 2016. The DNC installed the unlikeable and unelectable Clinton instead.
Incorrect. Trump wants to against a socialist that honeymooned in Russia, supported the Sandinistas, recently had a heart attack, millionaire that owns three homes (but rich people are bad), wants to take away peoples healthcare that they like and replace with a health care system that he doesn't know how much will cost or how to implement it
Trump would have had problems with Gabbard but the DNC took care of that, the only candidate Trump would like to go against more would be Warren
– What do you think Trumps ads are going to be, add in Bernie praising Castro, thinking bread lines are a good thing, potentially Russia interference (ironic really), Trumps problem is going to be what not to attack Bernie on
Whereas you support the Contra terror squads illegally armed and supported by the United States?
– Um what?
He's a lot fitter than Trump.
– You and I both don't know that but what we do know is Bernie had a heart attack on the campaign trail and there hasn't been any suggestion of Trump not being physically up to the job
Don't think he said all rich people are bad. His critique is more analytical and intelligent than your portrayal of it.
No thats true, he just doesn't think billionaires should exist which is interesting given that of the 10 richest people in the USA most seem to be democrats (or at least vote that way)
There hasn't been any reasonable suggestion he physically isn't calpable of being up to the job and being that the media breathlessly report and each and everything little he thing he does and then blow it out of proportion doesn't that strike you as telling
I mean it'd be different if he had a heart attack or something…
well, that and the fact the his medical report said he was the same height as Obama, for all we know the fucker could be dead and they're pulling a Weekend at Bernie's.
The "socialist/communist" attack line is dead in the water. I mean, wasn't Obama a communist too? It's been robbed of any impact by simple over use.
Anyway.
Assuming no fuckery bringing about a brokered convention, and hopefully no assassination ( And yes, I think that has to remain on the table of possibilities given the record of entrenched liberal power around the world…what…you reckon they'll only ever "off" brown skinned dudes?!), Trump will lose very heavily to Sanders for the simple reason he cannot tack to the left of Sanders with his rhetoric as he did with Clinton.
Trump will lose very heavily to Sanders for the simple reason he cannot tack to the left of Sanders with his rhetoric as he did with Clinton.
Yes I agree. The admittedly small sample of Trump voters I have talked with, all without exception were well aware of his shortcomings as a human being. While Trump does have his hard core supporters, and the electorate is very polarised at present, I still don't think they're enough on their own.
You are correct, while the DNC will bank on Sanders losing to Trump, I suspect the US electorate may well grievously disappoint them.
Yes the economy is the strong play at the moment. There are many complex reasons for this and almost none of them to do with Trump. On the other hand he does get credit for being the first US President to confront the CCP on the economic front.
Plus the endless Democrat Russiagate delusions, the weak Ukrainian impeachment debacle, and now the threat of COVID19 have only strengthened his hand.
So yes he does have some real strengths. But most Americans in their heart of hearts would wish for a better person in the White House.
Trump would have had problems with Gabbard but the DNC took care of that,
I'm inclined to agree. In my view the DNC are running this election as a losing proposition, with the explicit intention of using it to knock out elements of the party they don't like. The last thing they want is someone they cannot control like Sanders, Yang or Gabbard actually winning.
It's not unusual for Tucker to hit the nail on the head. It basically depends on the topic. On war, he's on point. On the bullshittery of liberal elites, he's on point. Immigration and other stuff…not so much.
Anyway. I'm not really awaiting responses from the liberal twats who bought into the Steele Dossier, the Russia Hoax and the Mueller as white knight bullshit – like, how they going to square this nonsense that's coming from the intelligence community now that both Trump and Sanders are Putin puppets?! 🙂
The obvious question that peeps who bought the kompromat line is this…
If Russian intelligence services had dirt on Trump, then how much more dirt do you think lies in the hands of the FBI and CIA?
I don't think there's a soul out there who would claim Trump is anything but a corrupt and venal expression of humanity…but who is more likely to have the ability to exercise leverage over him?
As a possible pointer, we might look to his foreign policy, how that stacks up against the rhetoric he spouted when running for office, and whether it favours Russian interests or US Intelligence Community interests.
Arming fascists in Ukraine. Attempting a coup in Venezuela. Killing the German/Russian pipeline deal. Arming head-choppers in Syria. Pulling out of Russia/US arms treaties. And etc.
Maybe the FBI and CIA have a problem with the concept of blackmailing potus, for some reason.
And try listing the way he fucked up NATO and handed over bases to Russian soldiers in Syria, and fucked the Kurds.
But rather than having this debate a fucking cheeto again, I've not seen anyone say Sanders is a Russian tool. Sure, I've seen suggestions that Russia fucking with the elections again is helping Sanders, but nothing in the vague ballpark of them having leverage over him.
The Steele Dossier was as shit smeared toilet paper. I said that at the time.
Maddow on MSNBC and all the other Russia Hoax pundits notwithstanding…plus the soggy pissed on mess that was the Mueller Report (you geddit?) and the bullshit impeachment that sought to resurrect elements of failed propaganda…it’s all only served to highlight the shit of both that dossier and subsequent ramblings and rantings.
Which is all irrelevant to your "That the supposed shit on Trump, is it?".
Which actually makes sense – I really can't understand how you regard the Mueller Report as a "soggy mess" when half a dozen people got sent to prison because of it. But if you're not bothering to refresh your memory or keep track of the news, then your sloganeering makes more sense. They're just bardic phrases, rather than accurate descriptions.
The obvious question that peeps who bought the kompromat line is this…
If Russian intelligence services had dirt on Trump, then how much more dirt do you think lies in the hands of the FBI and CIA?
The Russian strategy may be even more complex then thought due to asymmetric behaviour. such as Surkov.
“It was the first non-linear war,” writes Surkov in a new short story, “Without Sky,” published under his pseudonym and set in a dystopian future after the “fifth world war”:
In the primitive wars of the 19th and 20th centuries it was common for just two sides to fight. Two countries. Two groups of allies. Now four coalitions collided. Not two against two, or three against one. No. All against all.
The explanation may be simpler in this sense; in a world where all nations are connected physically, socially and economically …. it is inevitable they will also influence each other politically.
Schadenfreude bath time. He (or his buddies) also doctored the parties online presence (FB) so detractors were blocked. Was not interested in folk asking hard questions, or having a conversation. Only co-opting others media for smearing Greenpeace & the Green Party with. And did I mention he’s got a problem with his hands…
The Yamal Peninsula contains some of the biggest known reserves of natural gas on the planet. This remote peninsula in the Russian Arctic extends for 700 kilometres into the Kara Sea, and now several pipelines, offshore gas fields, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals have made it their home. Those tens of millions of cubic metres of natural gas have attracted Russia's state-owned gas companies and several international investors; in 2008, Gazprom announced its Yamal Project, to unlock the region's hydrocarbons on a vast scale.
Yamal is also home to 15,000 people, 10,000 of whom are Nenets reindeer herders
Indigenous rights activists have also raised concerns about what this large-scale energy extraction could mean for the Nenets and other indigenous peoples of Russia's far north. Dmitry Berezhkov is a member of the Itelmen people from the Kamchatka Peninsula and the former vice-president of the Russian Association of Indigenous Peoples of the North (RAIPON), a Moscow-based NGO. Berezhkov says that he was pressured by the Russian security services in the capital into framing RAIPON as a threat to the state.
[…]
I spoke to Berezhkov about the consequences of natural gas exploitation for indigenous people in Russia's north. The interview has been edited for length and clarity.
Maxim Edwards: What does the future hold for the indigenous peoples of the Yamal Peninsula?
Dmitry Berezhkov: More gas fields are being developed, further to the north and east of the peninsula and towards the other side of the gulf of the River Ob. The gas pipeline network is like an octopus; it spreads across the land. And for every pipeline and for every road, they take another piece of land away from reindeer herders. For now, reindeer herders try to use the rest of the land, but that means their herds may become smaller, and they are now starting to compete with each other for pastures. The problem is developing gradually, it gets a little worse every year.It's like a game of chess, they build one pipeline, then the herds move elsewhere.The growing infrastructure means that reindeer herders have to find new areas to graze, and if there are none, they have to put pressure on the same areas with even more reindeer. For example, the herds eat reindeer moss (Ru: Ягель), and the increased competition means that less of it is left. And less food for reindeer could mean smaller herds, and slaughtering animals which can't be fed. Either the government will sponsor a programme to kill reindeer, or the flocks will die out because of starvation. I don't know. But I think that over the next one or two decades, a huge number of reindeer will die in the Yamal. More indigenous people will settle in the villages, which can lead to social diseases, alcoholism, and other things like that. They will lose their language and traditional livelihood. I think that's the future.
On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a ...
TL;DR: In today’s ‘six-stack’ of substacks at 6.06pm on Tuesday, March 19:Kāinga Ora’s dry rot The Spinoff DailyBill McKibben on ‘Climate Superfunds’ making Big Oil pay for climate damage The Crucial YearsPreston Mui on returning to 1980s-style productivity growth NoahpinionAndy Boenau on NIMBYs needing unusual bedfellows Urbanism SpeakeasyNed Resnikoff's case ...
Negative yesterday, negative today. Negative all year, according to one departing reader telling me I’ve grown strident and predictable. Fair enough. If it’s any help, every time I go to write about a certain topic that begins with C and ends with arrrrs, I do brace myself and ask: Again? Are ...
Bryce Edwards writes – It’s been a tumultuous time in politics in recent months, as the new National-led Government has driven through its “First 100 Day programme”. During this period there’s been a handful of opinion polls, which overall just show a minimal amount of flux in public support ...
Inspirational: The Family of Man is a glorious hymn to human equality, but, more than that, it is a clarion call to human freedom. Because equality, unleavened by liberty, is a broken piano, an unstrung harp; upon which the songs of fraternity will never be played.“Somebody must have been telling lies about ...
Tax Lawyer Barbara Edmonds vs Emperor Justinian I- Nolo Contendere: False historical explanations of pivotal events are very far from being inconsequential.WHEN BARBARA EDMONDS made reference to the Roman Empire, my ears pricked up. It is, lamentably, very rare to hear a politician admit to any kind of familiarity ...
It’s been a tumultuous time in politics in recent months, as the new National-led Government has driven through its “First 100 Day programme”. During this period there’s been a handful of opinion polls, which overall just show a minimal amount of flux in public support for the various parties in ...
Buzz from the Beehive Housing Minister Chris Bishop delivered news – packed with the ingredients to enflame political passions – worthy of supplanting Winston Peters in headline writers’ priorities. He popped up at the post-Cabinet press conference to promise a crackdown on unruly and antisocial state housing tenants. His ...
Ele Ludemann writes – The Reserve Bank is advertising for a Diversity, Equity and Inclusion advisor. The Bank has one mandate – to keep inflation between one and three percent. It has failed in that and is only slowly getting inflation back down to the upper limit. Will it ...
Last week former National Party leader Simon Bridges was appointed by the Government as the new chair of the New Zealand Transport Agency Waka Kotahi (NZTA). You can read about the appointment in Thomas Coughlan’s article, Simon Bridges to become chair of NZ Transport Agency Waka KotahiThe fact that a ...
Bryce Edwards writes – Last week former National Party leader Simon Bridges was appointed by the Government as the new chair of the New Zealand Transport Agency Waka Kotahi (NZTA). You can read about the appointment in Thomas Coughlan’s article, Simon Bridges to become chair of NZ Transport Agency ...
TL;DR: My top 10 news and analysis links this morning include:Today’s must-read: Gavin Jacobson talks to Thomas Piketty 10 years on from Capital in the 21st CenturyThe SalvoLocal scoop: Green MP’s business being investigated over migrant exploitation claims StuffSteve KilgallonLocal deep-dive: The commercial contractors making money from School ...
It’s a home - but Kāinga Ora tenants accused of “abusing the privilege” may lose it. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The Government announced a crackdown on Kāinga Ora tenants who were unruly and/or behind on their rent, with Housing Minister Chris Bishop saying a place in a state ...
This is a guest post by Connor Sharp of Surface Light Rail Light rail in Auckland: A way forward sooner than you think With the coup de grâce of Auckland Light Rail (ALR) earlier this year, and the shift of the government’s priorities to roads, roads, and more roads, it ...
Note: As a paid-up Webworm member, I’ve recorded this Webworm as a mini-podcast for you as well. Some of you said you liked this option - so I aim to provide it when I get a chance to record! Read more ...
TL;DR: In my ‘six-stack’ of substacks at 6.06pm on Monday, March 18:IKEA is accused of planting big forests in New Zealand to green-wash; REDD-MonitorA City for People takes a well-deserved victory lap over Wellington’s pro-YIMBY District Plan votes; A City for PeopleSteven Anastasiou takes a close look at the sticky ...
Buzz from the Beehive Here’s hoping for a lively post-cabinet press conference when the PM and – perhaps – some of his ministers tell us what was discussed at their meeting today. Until then, Point of Order has precious little Beehive news to report after its latest monitoring of the ...
David Farrar writes – We now have almost all 2023 data in, which has allowed me to update my annual table of how labour went against its promises. This is basically their final report card. The promiseThe result Build 100,000 affordable homes over 10 ...
I’m a bit worried that I’ve started a previous newsletter with the words “just when you think they couldn’t get any worse…” Seems lately that I could begin pretty much every issue with that opening. Such is the nature of our coalition government that they seem to be outdoing each ...
Geoffrey Miller writes – Timing is everything. And from China’s perspective, this week’s visit by its foreign minister to New Zealand could be coming at just the right moment. The visit by Wang Yi to Wellington will be his first since 2017. Anniversaries are important to Beijing. ...
Depictions of Islam in Western popular culture have rarely been positive, even before 9/11. Five years on from the mosque shootings, this is one of the cultural headwinds that the Muslim community has to battle against. Whatever messages of tolerance and inclusion are offered in daylight, much of our culture ...
Last week Transport Minster Simeon Brown and Mayor Wayne Brown opened the new Auckland Rail Operations Centre. The new train control centre will see teams from KiwiRail, Auckland Transport and Auckland One Rail working more closely together to improve train services across the city. The Auckland Rail Operations Centre in ...
Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: Retiring former Labour Finance Minister Grant Robertson said in an exit interview with Q+A yesterday the Government can and should sustain more debt to invest in infrastructure for future generations. Elsewhere in the news in Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy at 6:36am: Read more ...
Timing is everything. And from China’s perspective, this week’s visit by its foreign minister to New Zealand could be coming at just the right moment. The visit by Wang Yi to Wellington will be his first since 2017. Anniversaries are important to Beijing. It is more than just a happy ...
TL;DR: The key events to watch in Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy in the week to March 18 include:China’s Foreign Minister visiting Wellington today;A post-cabinet news conference this afternoon; the resumption of Parliament on Tuesday for two weeks before Easter;retiring former Labour Finance Minister Grant Robertson gives his valedictory speech in Parliament; ...
New Zealand First Leader Winston Peters’s state-of-the-nation speech on Sunday was really a state-of-Winston-First speech. He barely mentioned any of the Government’s key policies and could not even wholly endorse its signature income tax cuts. Instead, he rehearsed all of his complaints about the Ardern Government, including an extraordinary claim ...
A listing of 35 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, March 10, 2024 thru Sat, March 16, 2024. Story of the week This week we'll give you a little glimpse into how we collect links to share and ...
A listing of 35 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, March 10, 2024 thru Sat, March 16, 2024. Story of the week This week we'll give you a little glimpse into how we collect links to share and ...
“I’ve been internalising a really complicated situation in my head.”When they kept telling us we should wait until we get to know him, were they taking the piss? Was it a case of, if you think this is bad, wait till you get to know the real Christopher, after the ...
Happy fourth anniversary, Pandemic That Upended Bloody Everything. I have been observing it by enjoying my second bout of COVID. It’s 5.30 on Sunday morning and only now are lights turning back on for me.Allow me to copy and paste what I told reader Sara yesterday:Depleted, fogged and crappy. Resting, ...
Happy fourth anniversary, Pandemic That Upended Bloody Everything. I have been observing it by enjoying my second bout of COVID. It’s 5.30 on Sunday morning and only now are lights turning back on for me.Allow me to copy and paste what I told reader Sara yesterday:Depleted, fogged and crappy. Resting, ...
Happy fourth anniversary, Pandemic That Upended Bloody Everything. I have been observing it by enjoying my second bout of COVID. It’s 5.30 on Sunday morning and only now are lights turning back on for me.Allow me to copy and paste what I told reader Sara yesterday:Depleted, fogged and crappy. Resting, ...
.“$10 and a target that bleeds” - Bleeding Targets for Under $10!.Thanks for reading Frankly Speaking ! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.This government appears hell-bent on either scrapping life-saving legislation or reintroducing things that - frustrated critics insist - will be dangerous and likely ...
“It hardly strikes me as fair to criticise a government for doing exactly what it said it was going to do. For actually keeping its promises.”THUNDER WAS PLAYING TAG with lightning flashes amongst the distant peaks. Its rolling cadences interrupted by the here-I-come-here-I-go Doppler effect of the occasional passing car. ...
Subversive & Disruptive Technologies: Just as happened with that other great regulator of the masses, the Medieval Church, the advent of a new and hard-to-control technology – the Internet – is weakening the ties that bind. Then, and now, those who enjoy a monopoly on the dissemination of lies, cannot and will ...
Been Here Before: To find the precedents for what this Coalition Government is proposing, it is necessary to return to the “glory days” of Muldoonism.THE COALITION GOVERNMENT has celebrated its first 100 days in office by checking-off the last of its listed commitments. It remains, however, an angry government. It ...
Bob Edlin writes – And what is the world watching today…? The email newsletter from Associated Press which landed in our mailbox early this morning advised: In the news today: The father of a school shooter has been found guilty of involuntary manslaughter; prosecutors in Trump’s hush-money case ...
Bryce Edwards writes – Is another Green MP on their way out? And are the Greens severely tarnished by another integrity scandal? For the second time in three months, the Green Party has secretly suspended an MP over integrity issues. Mystery is surrounding the party’s decision to ...
For the last few years, the Green Party has been the party that has managed to avoid the plague of multiple scandals that have beleaguered other political parties. It appears that their luck has run out with a second scandal which, unfortunately for them, coincided with Golraz Ghahraman, the focus ...
TL;DR: The six newsey things that stood out to me as of 6:46am on Saturday, March 16.Andy Foster has accidentally allowed a Labour/Green amendment to cut road user chargers for plug-in hybrid vehicles, which the Government might accept; NZ HeraldThomas CoughlanSimeon Brown has rejected a plea from Westport ...
What seemed a booming success a couple of years ago has collapsed into fraud convictions.I looked at the crash of FTX (short for ‘Futures Exchange’) in November 2022 to see whether it would impact on the financial system as a whole. Fortunately there was barely a ripple, probably because it ...
Anybody following the situation in Ukraine and Russia would probably have been amused by a recent Tweet on X NATO seems to be putting in an awful lot of effort to influence what is, at least according to them, a sham election in an autocracy.When do the Ukrainians go to ...
TL;DR:Shaun Baker on Wynyard Quarter's transformation. Magdalene Taylor on the problem with smart phones. How private equity are now all over reinsurance. Dylan Cleaver on rugby and CTE. Emily Atkin on ‘Big Meat’ looking like ‘Big Oil’.Bernard’s six-stack of substacks at 6pm on March 15Photo by Jeppe Hove Jensen ...
Buzz from the Beehive Finance Minister Nicola Willis had plenty to say when addressing the Auckland Business Chamber on the economic growth that (she tells us) is flagging more than we thought. But the government intends to put new life into it: We want our country to be a ...
The Transport and Infrastructure Committee has reported back on the Road User Charges (Light Electric RUC Vehicles) Amendment Bill, basicly rubberstamping it. While there was widespread support among submitters for the principle that EV and PHEV drivers should pay their fair share for the roads, they also overwhelmingly disagreed with ...
Peter Dunne writes – This week’s government bailout – the fifth in the last eighteen months – of the financially troubled Ruapehu Alpine Lifts company would have pleased many in the central North Island ski industry. The government’s stated rationale for the $7 million funding was that it ...
See if you can spot the difference. An Iranian born female MP from a progressive party is accused of serial shoplifting. Her name is leaked to the media, which goes into a pack frenzy even before the Police launch an … Continue reading → ...
Ele Ludemann writes – The government is omitting general Treaty references from legislation : The growth of Treaty of Waitangi clauses in legislation caused so much worry that a special oversight group was set up by the last Government in a bid to get greater coherence in the public service on Treaty ...
What was that judge thinking?Peter Williams writes – That Golriz Ghahraman and District Court Judge Maria Pecotic were once lawyer colleagues is incontrovertible. There is published evidence that they took at least one case to the Court of Appeal together. There was a report on ...
TL;DR: My top 10 news and analysis links this morning include:Today’s must-read:Climate Scorpion – the sting is in the tail. Introducing planetary solvency. A paper via the University of Exeter’s Institute and Faculty of Actuaries.Local scoop:Kāinga Ora starts pulling out of its Auckland projects and selling land RNZ ...
Wellington’s massively upzoned District Plan adds the opportunity for tens of thousands of new homes not just in the central city (such as these Webb St new builds) but also close to the CBD and public transport links. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: Wellington gave itself the chance of ...
It’s Friday and we’re halfway through March Madness. Here’s some of the things that caught our attention this week. This Week in Greater Auckland On Monday Matt asked how we can get better event trains and an option for grade separating Morningside Dr. On Tuesday Matt looked into ...
Something you might not know about me is that I’m quite a stubborn person. No, really. I don’t much care for criticism I think’s unfair or that I disagree with. Few of us do I suppose.Back when I was a drinker I’d sometimes respond defensively, even angrily. There are things ...
Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote and spoke about via The Kākā and elsewhere for paying subscribers in the last week included:PM Christopher Luxon said the reversal of interest deductibility for landlords was done to help renters, who ...
It was not so much the Labour Party but really the Chris Hipkins party yesterday at Labour’s caucus retreat in Martinborough. The former Prime Minister was more or less consistent on wealth tax, which he was at best equivocal about, and social insurance, which he was not willing to revisit. ...
Buzz from the BeehiveThe text reproduced above appears on a page which records all the media statements and speeches posted on the government’s official website by Melissa Lee as Minister of Media and Communications and/or by Jenny Marcroft, her Parliamentary Under-secretary. It can be quickly analysed ...
For forty years, Robert Muldoon has been a dirty word in our politics. His style of government was so repulsive and authoritarian that the backlash to it helped set and entrench our constitutional norms. His pig-headedness over forcing through Think Big eventually gave us the RMA, with its participation and ...
Bryce Edwards writes – Is the new government reducing tax on rental properties to benefit landlords or to cut the cost of rents? That’s the big question this week, after Associate Finance Minister David Seymour announced on Sunday that the Government would be reversing the Labour Government’s removal ...
Saudi Arabia is rarely far from the international spotlight. The war in Gaza has brought new scrutiny to Saudi plans to normalise relations with Israel, while the fifth anniversary of the controversial killing of Jamal Khashoggi was marked shortly before the war began on October 7. And as the home ...
Questions need to be asked on both sides of the worldPeter Williams writes – The NRL Judiciary hands down an eight week suspension to Sydney Roosters forward Spencer Leniu , an Auckland-born Samoan, after he calls Ezra Mam, Sydney-orn but of Aboriginal and Torres Strait ...
Ele Ludemann writes – Contrary to what many headlines and news stories are saying, residential landlords are not getting a tax break. The government is simply restoring to them the tax deductibility of interest they had until the previous government removed it. There is no logical reason ...
I can't remember when it was goodMoments of happiness in bloomMaybe I just misunderstoodAll of the love we left behindWatching our flashbacks intertwineMemories I will never findIn spite of whatever you becomeForget that reckless thing turned onI think our lives have just begunI think our lives have just begunDoes anyone ...
Michael Bassett writes – At first reading, a front-page story in the New Zealand Herald on 13 March was bizarre. A group of severely intellectually limited teenagers, with little understanding of the law, have been pleading to the Justice Select Committee not to pass a bill dealing with ram ...
How much political capital is Christopher Luxon willing to burn through in order to deliver his $2.9 billion gift to landlords? Evidently, Luxon is: (a) unable to cost the policy accurately. As Anna Burns-Francis pointed out to him on Breakfast TV, the original ”rock solid” $2.1 billion cost he was ...
TL;DR: My top 10 news and analysis links this morning include:Today’s must-read:Jonathon Porritt calling bullshit in his own blog post on mainstream climate science as ‘The New Denialism’.Local scoop:The Wellington City Council’s list of proposed changes to the IHP recommendations to be debated later today was leaked this ...
TL;DR:Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said yesterday tenants should be grateful for the reinstatement of interest deductibility because landlords would pass on their lower tax costs in the form of lower rents. That would be true if landlords were regulated monopolies such as Transpower or Auckland Airport1, but they’re not, ...
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Tom Toro Tom Toro is a cartoonist and author. He has published over 200 cartoons in The New Yorker since 2010. His cartoons appear in Playboy, the Paris Review, the New York Times, American Bystander, and elsewhere. Related: What 10 EV lovers ...
The business section of the NZ Herald is full of opinion. Among the more opinionated of all is the ex-Minister of Transport, ex-Minister of Railways, ex MP for Auckland Central (1975-93, Labour), Wellington Central (1996-99, ACT, then list-2005), ex-leader of the ACT Party, uncle to actor Antonia, the veritable granddaddy ...
Hi,Just quickly — I’m blown away by the stories you’ve shared with me over the last week since I put out the ‘Gary’ podcast, where I told you about the time my friend’s flatmate killed the neighbour.And you keep telling me stories — in the comments section, and in my ...
The first season of Rings of Power was not awful. It was thoroughly underwhelming, yes, and left a lingering sense of disappointment, but it was more expensive mediocrity than catastrophe. I wrote at length about the series as it came out (see the Review section of the blog, and go ...
Buzz from the Beehive Workplace Relations and Safety Minister Brooke van Velden told Auckland Business Chamber members they were the first audience to hear her priorities as a minister in a government committed to cutting red tape and regulations. She brandished her liberalising credentials, saying Flexible labour markets are the ...
Chris Trotter writes – TO UNDERSTAND WHY NEWSHUB FAILED, it is necessary to understand how TVNZ changed. Up until 1989, the state broadcaster had been funded by a broadcasting licence fee, collected from every citizen in possession of a television set, supplemented by a relatively modest (compared ...
Bob Edlin writes – The Māori Party has been busy issuing a mix of warnings and threats as its expresses its opposition to interest deductibility for landlords and the plans of seabed miners. It remains to be seen whether they follow the example of indigenous litigants in Australia, ...
The Government has accepted Labour’s change to the Road User Charge (RUC) discount for hybrid vehicles, meaning there will still be some incentive for people to buy greener vehicles. ...
Kicking the most vulnerable people out of state housing and pushing them towards homelessness will result in a proliferation of poverty and trauma across our most vulnerable communities. ...
Te Pāti Māori co-leader and MP for Waiariki, Rawiri Waititi has penned a letter asking MPs to support his members bill to remove GST from all food. The bill is expected to go through its first reading in parliament this Wednesday. “I’m calling on all political parties to support my ...
This year is about getting real with Kiwis and discussing the tough issues, as the National Government exacerbates inequality and divides New Zealand, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said ...
The Government adding Significant Natural Areas (SNAs) to its already roaring environmental policy bonfire is an assault on the future of wildlife that makes Aotearoa unique. ...
After 12 years of fighting to protect our moana we are finding ourselves back at square one and back at court. Today, the Environmental Protection Agency is sitting in Hawera to reconsider an application from Trans-Tasman Resources to dig up 50 million tonnes of the seabed in South Taranaki. This ...
Minister Shane Jones’ decision to step away from a seabed mining project is evidence of the murky waters surrounding the Government’s fast-track legislation. ...
The growth of Treaty of Waitangi clauses in legislation caused so much worry that a special oversight group was set up by the last government in a bid to get greater coherence in the publicservice on Treaty matters. When ministers first considered the need for tighter oversight in 2021, there ...
The growth of Treaty of Waitangi clauses in legislation caused so much worry that a special oversight group was set up by the last government in a bid to get greater coherence in the publicservice on Treaty matters. When ministers first considered the need for tighter oversight in 2021, there ...
The Coalition Government’s miscalculation saga continues as it has forgotten an eyewatering $90 million gap in its interest deductibility cost figures, say Labour Finance spokesperson Barbara Edmonds and Revenue Spokesperson Deborah Russell. ...
He Pou a Rangi Climate Change Commission has today released advice that says if the Government doesn’t act now New Zealand is at risk of not meeting its climate goals. ...
The Coalition Government has today confirmed it is abandoning first home buyers who are struggling to get ahead, says Labour Finance spokesperson Barbara Edmonds. ...
The New Zealand public voted for a change in direction at the 2023 general election and that is exactly what this coalition government has been delivering in its first 100 days. There was an immediate focus on the economy, easing the cost of living, cracking down on law and order ...
The Government has left the health system as an afterthought, announcing half-baked targets at the last minute of their 100-day plan, says Labour Health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall. ...
Kiwis are still waiting for their promised cost of living support after 100 days of a National Government that is taking us backwards, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said today. ...
The National Government has spent its first 100 days stopping, cutting and reversing. They have scrapped stuff for stuff for the sake of it, without putting up any solutions of their own – and it’s hardworking New Zealanders who will pay for it. ...
100 days of National taking NZ backwardsThe National Government has spent its first 100 days stopping, cutting and reversing. They have scrapped stuff for stuff for the sake of it, without putting up any solutions of their own – and it’s hardworking New Zealanders who will pay for it. ...
The Government must commit to funding free and healthy school lunches, as thousands of people sign the petition to keep them, education spokesperson Jan Tinetti says. ...
If the Government was serious about moving families into public housing, they would build more houses so there is actually somewhere for people to go. ...
The free and healthy school lunches programme feeds our kids, helps them to learn, and saves families money – but it is at risk under this Government, education spokesperson Jan Tinetti said. ...
The Government’s proposed changes to Firearms Prohibition Orders (FPO) add almost nothing new and are merely an attempt to distract from its plans to loosen gun laws, police spokesperson Ginny Andersen and justice spokesperson Dr Duncan Webb said. ...
The great Victorian era English politician Lord Macauley stood in the British House of Parliament and said, "The gallery in which the reporters sit has become a fourth estate of the realm".He understood and outlined even way back then, the significant role and influence media have in a democracy. ...
"The Government is moving quickly to realise an additional $46 million in tariff savings in the EU market this season for Kiwi exporters,” Minister for Trade and Agriculture, Todd McClay says. Parliament is set, this week, to complete the final legislative processes required to bring the New Zealand – European ...
New Zealand’s social workers are qualified, experienced, and more representative of the communities they serve, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. “I want to acknowledge and applaud New Zealand’s social workers for the hard work they do, providing invaluable support for our most vulnerable. “To coincide with World ...
Cabinet has agreed to a reduced road user charge (RUC) rate for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. Owners of PHEVs will be eligible for a reduced rate of $38 per 1,000km once all light electric vehicles (EVs) move into the RUC system from 1 April. ...
Minister of Agriculture and Trade, Todd McClay, says that today’s opening of Riverland Foods manufacturing plant in Christchurch is a great example of how trade access to overseas markets creates jobs in New Zealand. Speaking at the official opening of this state-of-the-art pet food factory the Minister noted that exports ...
Minister of Foreign Affairs Winston Peters met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Wellington today. “It was a pleasure to host Foreign Minister Wang Yi during his first official visit to New Zealand since 2017. Our discussions were wide-ranging and enabled engagement on many facets of New Zealand’s relationship with China, including trade, ...
Kāinga Ora – Homes & Communities has been instructed to end the Sustaining Tenancies Framework and take stronger measures against persistent antisocial behaviour by tenants, says Housing Minister Chris Bishop. “Earlier today Finance Minister Nicola Willis and I sent an interim Letter of Expectations to the Board of Kāinga Ora. ...
Tēna koutou katoa. Greetings everyone. Thank you to the Auckland Chamber of Commerce and the Honourable Simon Bridges for hosting this address today. I acknowledge the business leaders in this room, the leaders and governors, the employers, the entrepreneurs, the investors, and the wealth creators. The coalition Government shares your ...
Minister Winston Peters completed the final leg of his visit to South and South East Asia in Singapore today, where he focused on enhancing one of New Zealand’s indispensable strategic partnerships. “Singapore is our most important defence partner in South East Asia, our fourth-largest trading partner and a ...
Minister of Internal Affairs and Workplace Relations and Safety, Hon. Brooke van Velden, will travel to the Republic of Korea to represent New Zealand at the Third Summit for Democracy on 18 March. The summit, hosted by the Republic of Korea, was first convened by the United States in 2021, ...
ICNZ Speech 7 March 2024, Auckland Acknowledgements and opening Mōrena, ngā mihi nui. Ko Andrew Bayly aho, Nor Whanganui aho. Good morning, it’s a privilege to be here to open the ICNZ annual conference, thank you to Mark for the Mihi Whakatau My thanks to Tim Grafton for inviting me ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Lead Coordination Minister Judith Collins have expressed their deepest sympathy on the five-year anniversary of the Christchurch terror attacks. “March 15, 2019, was a day when families, communities and the country came together both in sorrow and solidarity,” Mr Luxon says. “Today we pay our respects to the 51 shuhada ...
Speech for Financial Advice NZ Conference 5 March 2024 Acknowledgements and opening Morena, Nga Mihi Nui. Ko Andrew Bayly aho, Nor Whanganui aho. Thanks Nate for your Mihi Whakatau Good morning. It’s a pleasure to formally open your conference this morning. What a lovely day in Wellington, What a great ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters held discussions in Jakarta today about the future of relations between New Zealand and South East Asia’s most populous country. “We are in Jakarta so early in our new government’s term to reflect the huge importance we place on our relationship with Indonesia and South ...
Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Winston Peters has announced that the Foreign Minister of China, Wang Yi, will visit New Zealand next week. “We look forward to re-engaging with Foreign Minister Wang Yi and discussing the full breadth of the bilateral relationship, which is one of New Zealand’s ...
Transport Minister Simeon Brown has today opened the new Auckland Rail Operations Centre, which will bring together KiwiRail, Auckland Transport, and Auckland One Rail to improve service reliability for Aucklanders. “The recent train disruptions in Auckland have highlighted how important it is KiwiRail and Auckland’s rail agencies work together to ...
The Government is proud to support the 10th edition of Crankworx Rotorua as the Crankworx World Tour returns to Rotorua from 16-24 March 2024, says Minister for Economic Development Melissa Lee. “Over the past 10 years as Crankworx Rotorua has grown, so too have the economic and social benefits that ...
Legislation implementing coalition Government tax commitments and addressing long-standing tax anomalies will be progressed in Parliament next week, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. The legislation is contained in an Amendment Paper to the Taxation (Annual Rates for 2023–24, Multinational Tax, and Remedial Matters) Bill issued today. “The Amendment Paper represents ...
Associate Environment Minister Andrew Hoggard has today announced that the Government has agreed to suspend the requirement for councils to comply with the Significant Natural Areas (SNA) provisions of the National Policy Statement for Indigenous Biodiversity for three years, while it replaces the Resource Management Act (RMA).“As it stands, SNAs ...
Agriculture Minister Todd McClay has classified the drought conditions in the Marlborough, Tasman, and Nelson districts as a medium-scale adverse event, acknowledging the challenging conditions facing farmers and growers in the district. “Parts of Marlborough, Tasman, and Nelson districts are in the grip of an intense dry spell. I know ...
The Government is helping farmers eradicate the significant impact of facial eczema (FE) in pastoral animals, Agriculture Minister Todd McClay announced. “A $20 million partnership jointly funded by Beef + Lamb NZ, the Government, and the primary sector will save farmers an estimated NZD$332 million per year, and aims to ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters has completed a successful visit to India, saying it was an important step in taking the relationship between the two countries to the next level. “We have laid a strong foundation for the Coalition Government’s priority of enhancing New Zealand-India relations to generate significant future benefit for both countries,” says Mr Peters, ...
Cabinet has agreed to provide $7 million to ensure the 2024 ski season can go ahead on the Whakapapa ski field in the central North Island but has told the operator Ruapehu Alpine Lifts it is the last financial support it will receive from taxpayers. Cabinet also agreed to provide ...
Health Minister Dr Shane Reti says the launch of a new mobile breast screening unit in Counties Manukau reinforces the coalition Government’s commitment to drive better cancer services for all New Zealanders. Speaking at the launch of the new mobile clinic, Dr Reti says it’s a great example of taking ...
Health Minister Dr Shane Reti says the launch of a new mobile breast screening unit in Counties Manukau reinforces the coalition Government’s commitment to drive better cancer services for all New Zealanders. Speaking at the launch of the new mobile clinic, Dr Reti says it’s a great example of taking ...
Unlocking economic growth and land for housing are critical elements of the Government’s plan for our transport network, and planned upgrades to State Highway 29 (SH29) near Tauriko will deliver strongly on those priorities, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “The SH29 upgrades near Tauriko will improve safety at the intersections ...
Unlocking economic growth and land for housing are critical elements of the Government’s plan for our transport network, and planned upgrades to State Highway 29 (SH29) near Tauriko will deliver strongly on those priorities, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “The SH29 upgrades near Tauriko will improve safety at the intersections ...
Lower fruit and vegetable prices are welcome news for New Zealanders who have been doing it tough at the supermarket, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. Stats NZ reported today the price of fruit and vegetables has dropped 9.3 percent in the 12 months to February 2024. “Lower fruit and vege ...
Tēnā koutou katoa and greetings to you all. Chair, I am honoured to address the sixty-eighth session of the Commission on the Status of Women. I acknowledge the many crises impacting the rights of women and girls. Heightened global tensions, war, climate related and humanitarian disasters, and price inflation all ...
Tēnā koutou katoa and greetings to you all. Chair, I am honoured to address the 68th session of the Commission on the Status of Women. I acknowledge the many crises impacting the rights of women and girls. Heightened global tensions, war, climate related and humanitarian disasters, and price inflation all ...
The coalition Government is supporting farmers to enhance land management practices by investing $3.3 million in locally led catchment groups, Agriculture Minister Todd McClay announced. “Farmers and growers deliver significant prosperity for New Zealand and it’s vital their ongoing efforts to improve land management practices and water quality are supported,” ...
Good evening everyone and thank you for that lovely introduction. Thank you also to the Honourable Simon Bridges for the invitation to address your members. Since being sworn in, this coalition Government has hit the ground running with our 100-day plan, delivering the changes that New Zealanders expect of us. ...
Recommendations from the Climate Change Commission for New Zealand on the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) auction and unit limit settings for the next five years have been tabled in Parliament, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says. “The Commission provides advice on the ETS annually. This is the third time the ...
The coalition Government is beginning its fight to lower building costs and reduce red tape by exempting minor building work from paying the building levy, says Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk. “Currently, any building project worth $20,444 including GST or more is subject to the building levy which is ...
Proposed changes to tax legislation to prevent the over-taxation of low-earning trusts are welcome, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. The changes have been recommended by Parliament’s Finance and Expenditure Committee following consideration of submissions on the Taxation (Annual Rates for 2023–24, Multinational Tax, and Remedial Matters) Bill. “One of the ...
Assalaamu alaikum. السَّلَام عليكم In light of the holy month of Ramadan, I want to extend my warmest wishes to our Muslim community in New Zealand. Ramadan is a time for spiritual reflection, renewed devotion, perseverance, generosity, and forgiveness. It’s a time to strengthen our bonds and appreciate the diversity ...
Former Transport Minister and CEO of the Auckland Business Chamber Hon Simon Bridges has been appointed as the new Board Chair of the New Zealand Transport Agency (NZTA) for a three-year term, Transport Minister Simeon Brown announced today. “Simon brings extensive experience and knowledge in transport policy and governance to the role. He will ...
Good morning all, it is a pleasure to be here as Minister of Science, Innovation and Technology. It is fantastic to see how connected and collaborative the life science and biotechnology industry is here in New Zealand. I would like to thank BioTechNZ and NZTech for the invitation to address ...
Regional Development Minister Shane Jones says he is looking forward to the day when three key water projects in Northland are up and running, unlocking the full potential of land in the region. Mr Jones attended a community event at the site of the Otawere reservoir near Kerikeri on Friday. ...
Associate Finance Minister David Seymour has today announced that the Government has agreed to restore deductibility for mortgage interest on residential investment properties. “Help is on the way for landlords and renters alike. The Government’s restoration of interest deductibility will ease pressure on rents and simplify the tax code,” says ...
Sport and Recreation Minister Chris Bishop will travel to Switzerland today to attend an Executive Committee meeting and Symposium of the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA). Mr Bishop will then travel on to London where he will attend a series of meetings in his capacity as Infrastructure Minister. “New Zealanders believe ...
Pacific Media Watch Ismail al-Ghoul, an Al Jazeera Arabic correspondent who was held for 12 hours at Gaza’s al-Shifa hospital, says Israeli forces rounded up Palestinian journalists at the facility and made them kneel on the ground for hours, while naked and blindfolded. “The occupation forces handcuffed and blindfolded us ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tony Wood, Program Director, Energy, Grattan Institute chinasong, Shutterstock Electricity customers in four Australian states can breathe a sigh of relief. After two years in a row of 20% price increases, power prices have finally stabilised. In many places they’re ...
Chumbawamba have reportedly issued the deputy PM a cease-and-desist notice after he used their song 'Tubthumping' before his state of the nation speech. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Deborah Lupton, SHARP Professor, Vitalities Lab, Centre for Social Research in Health and Social Policy Centre, and the ARC Centre of Excellence for Automated Decision-Making and Society, UNSW Sydney kitzcorner/Shutterstock The assertion from Queensland’s chief health officer John Gerrard that ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Martin, Visiting Fellow, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University Shutterstock Why are musicians so keen to get played on the radio? It can’t be because of the money. In Australia they are paid at rates so low they ...
"Farmers make a point not to tell our urban cousins how to live, yet Chlöe from central Auckland is hell-bent on having her say about farmers," says ACT Rural Communities spokesman Mark Cameron. “On her first day in the House as Green ...
Analysis by Dr Bryce Edwards – Democracy Project (https://democracyproject.nz)Political scientist, Dr Bryce Edwards. It’s been a tumultuous time in politics in recent months, as the new National-led Government has driven through its “First 100 Day programme”. During this period there’s been a handful of opinion polls, which overall just ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tim Curran, Associate Professor of Ecology, Lincoln University, New Zealand Getty Images/Gerald Corsi In the latest move to reform environmental laws in New Zealand, the coalition government has introduced a bill to fast-track consenting processes for projects deemed to ...
Uber has argued it does not have as much control over drivers as the unions suggest, and wants a judgment ruling that drivers are employees and not contractors set aside and sent back to the Employment Court. The 2022 ruling followed a three-week hearing in which four drivers sought to ...
What can and can’t be purchased by disabled people or their carers has been slashed in an effort by the Ministry of Disabled People Whaikaha to save money. The purchasing guidelines, a set of rules that sets out what can be purchased using the various streams of Government disability funding, ...
The Treasury has published today a new Analytical Note by Tod Wright and Hien Nguyen, Fiscal incidence in New Zealand: The effects of taxes and benefits on household incomes in tax year 2018/19 . Analyses of the distributional impact of taxation and government ...
The Treasury has published today a new Analytical Note by Cory Davis, Boston Hart and Benjamin Stubbing, Household cost-of-living impacts from the Emissions Trading Scheme and using transfers to mitigate regressive outcomes . This Analytical Note ...
A coalition of public transport and climate organisations, united as ‘Transport for All’, is actively opposing the government’s transport proposals. The draft Government Policy Statement (GPS) includes plans for higher fares for public transport, ...
Greater Wellington is inviting feedback on proposed changes to its Revenue and Financing Policy. The Revenue and Financing Policy covers the Council’s various sources of funding, and how the cost of services is shared across the region. This includes ...
Labour has conceded it could have done more to deal with disruptive state housing tenants while in government but says the current coalition is going too far. ...
The band has asked their record label to issue a cease and desist to stop the NZ First leader using their 1997 hit to support his ‘misguided political views’. “I get knocked down, but I get up again,” blared through the speakers on Sunday as Winston Peters took the stage ...
By Lydia Lewis, RNZ Pacific journalist Food rationing is underway in remote areas in Papua New Guinea’s Highlands following torrential rain and flash flooding. More than 20 people have been reported dead in Chimbu Province. In nearby Enga Province, the centre of last month’s massacre, a 15-year-old boy has been ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew Hughes, Lecturer, Research School of Management, Australian National University After months of debate and intrigue, the AFL’s 19th and newest team, the Tasmania Devils, finally launched its jumper, logo and colours in Devonport this week. The Devils will wear green, ...
Brannavan Gnanalingam reviews the debut novel by Saraid de Silva.One of the most baffling things for children who move to a new country is what their parents’ (or grandparents’) lives were like prior to moving – for kids in particular, they’re too busy trying to fit in in their ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stephen Gaunson, Associate Professor in Cinema Studies, RMIT University Narelle Portanier/Binge “If you don’t know who your mob are, you don’t know who you are,” Detective Andrea “Andie” Whitford (played by Leah Purcell) is told early into the new crime ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Elise Klein, Associate professor, Australian National University It’s commonly accepted that women do the vast majority of caregiving in Australian society. But less appreciated is that Indigenous women do larger amounts of unpaid care than any other group. Working with the Aboriginal ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne Joe Biden and Donald Trump have both secured their parties’ nominations for the November 5 United States general election by winning a ...
Comment: There has been a striking contrast in trans-Tasman interest about Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi’s visit to New Zealand and Australia. While the Australian press has been full of articles about the visit – including his curious decision to meet with former prime minister and China booster Paul Keating ...
After years of pressuring banks and other institutions to stop investing in fossil fuels, climate campaigners are making some progress. So how does divestment work?For years, climate activists have been pushing banks and other big institutions to divest from fossil fuels. New research from climate advocacy group 350 Aotearoa ...
For Boba, Ethan and Ashley, K-pop is a place to belong, a way to express themselves, and a bridge to connect with others. The three young Polynesians are part of a K-pop fan community in Tāmaki Makaurau. It’s one of many that have sprung up worldwide as K-pop has gone ...
For Boba, Ethan and Ashley, K-pop is a place to belong, a way to express themselves, and a bridge to connect with others. This one-off documentary presents three intimate portraits of young Polynesians who are pulled into a Korean cultural phenomenon. K-POLYS is directed by Litia Tuiburelevu, Produced by Hex ...
There’s ample evidence demonstrating free school lunch programmes provide wide benefits across schools, households and communities according to public health researchers. ACT Minister David Seymour wants to reduce the spending on Aotearoa New Zealand’s ...
By Wata Shaw in Suva Fiji is facing an exodus of Fijians as many are leaving for overseas seeking employment and education and others are migrating, says Opposition MP Viliame Naupoto. Speaking in Parliament, he said: “His Excellency’s speech (Ratu Wiliame Katonivere) comes after a little over one year of ...
The Taxpayers’ Union is welcoming comments from Christopher Luxon this morning recommitting to ‘no new taxes’ as part of Budget 2024. “Mr Luxon’s refusal at the Post-Cabinet press conference yesterday to repeat the ‘no new taxes’ promise ...
SAFE is urgently calling on the Environment Committee to reject the Government’s Fast-Track Approvals Bill, and is urging New Zealanders to rally behind the call. The proposed Bill, currently under consideration with the Environment select committee, ...
Teammates who spend all their time picking fights with spectators are only helpful for the other team, writes Madeleine Chapman. Anyone who has ever played a team sport competitively, particularly as a child and particularly, for some reason, basketball, will know that there’s a lot of politics involved. While there ...
The long-running Wellington music festival is too focused on the Jim Beam-ness and not enough on the Homegrown-ness.There is something about Homegrown that’s difficult to place. A barely perceptible-ness. Like feeling a ghost is watching you from the corner of the room but when you look, there’s nothing there. ...
The latest Ipsos New Zealand Issues Monitor reveals that fewer New Zealanders believe crime / law and order is one of the top issues facing our country. In 2018, Ipsos New Zealand started tracking the key issues facing New Zealand. In this wave ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kate Griffiths, Deputy Program Director, Budgets and Government, Grattan Institute Australia’s political donations rules are woefully inadequate, but donations reform is finally on the agenda. The federal government has signalled its interest in reform and will soon begin briefing MPs on its ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mark Patrick Taylor, Chief Environmental Scientist, EPA Victoria; Honorary Professor, School of Natural Sciences, Macquarie University Naiyana Somchitkaeo/Shutterstock A recent study published in the prestigious New England Journal of Medicine has linked microplastics with risk to human health. The study ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Albert Van Dijk, Professor, Water and Landscape Dynamics, Fenner School of Environment & Society, Australian National University Global climate records were shattered in 2023, from air and sea temperatures to sea-level rise and sea-ice extent. Scores of countries recorded their hottest year ...
As part of our series exploring how New Zealanders live and our relationship with money, a teacher explains why he and his partner are in frugal mode – and how they’re making it work. Gender: Male Age: 35Ethnicity: Pākehā Role: I am an intermediate school teacher and my partner is ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sarah Bendall, Senior Lecturer, Institute for Humanities and Social Sciences, Australian Catholic University Binge Mary & George, the new British television drama series, depicts the real-life story of Mary Villiers and her son George, and their social climbing at the ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jason Nassios, Associate Professor, Centre of Policy Studies, Victoria University This article is part of The Conversation’s series examining the housing crisis. Read the other articles in the series here. Australian state and federal governments spend money in many ways to ...
The finance minister is denying that there’s a $5.6b shortfall in paying for the government’s campaign promises, including tax cuts. At his post-cabinet press conference yesterday, the PM refused to rule out new taxes to pay for the cuts, writes Anna Rawhiti-Connell in this excerpt from The Bulletin, The Spinoff’s ...
Kāinga Ora tenants abused by their neighbours are doubting the government's crackdown on disruptive tenants will make a difference on their behaviour. ...
Kāinga Ora is New Zealand’s biggest residential landlord, housing more than 180,000 vulnerable people in more than 67,000 properties. Yesterday the government announced a crackdown on its tenants who fall behind on rent. One longtime Kāinga Ora tenant shares her experience.For 18 years I lived in a 1960s standalone ...
Why does this myth persist, and what’s the real reason our skin is suffering?It’s one of the biggest international grievances New Zealanders hold, up there with the sinking of the Rainbow Warrior and 1981’s underarm incident. We’re quick to tell international travellers that the world’s pollution led to the ...
SailGP’s races feature in-your-face action, with agile, hydro-foiling catamarans tacking and jibing for the title over several days. However, public comments ahead of the global series’ return to New Zealand have left this past year’s controversy in the shadows, as a key appointment attracts criticism from dolphin advocates. A year ...
Opinion: We are fast approaching a fundamental change in prisons. As the number of people on custodial remand looks set to overtake the number of sentenced prisoners, the main function of prisons in New Zealand may become incarcerating un-sentenced people who may not be guilty of offending. We have already ...
A huge seven months lies in store for the White Ferns, beginning this week with the visit of England and culminating with the T20 World Cup in Bangladesh in September and October. Starting on Tuesday in Dunedin, the world ranked No. 2 visitors will play five T20s and three ODIs, ...
Opinion: In a move that has shocked road safety advocates across the country, the new Minister of Transport, Simeon Brown, is poised to abandon the previous government’s speed limit reduction policy, particularly around schools. Even more alarmingly, he wants school speed limits to be variable rather than full-time, arguing ...
Auckland Council is opposing a fast-track development backed by Sir John Kirwan and Spark NZ, because it doesn’t meet stringent new climate adaptation requirements The post Surf-data centre faces new 3.8C climate warming rules appeared first on Newsroom. ...
When the Criminal Proceeds (Recovery) Act was introduced in 2009 it was firmly targeted at gangs and drugs. The legislation means police no longer need a conviction to seize assets that criminals can’t prove were paid for legitimately, as long as their alleged offences are punishable by more than a ...
Loading…(function(i,s,o,g,r,a,m){var ql=document.querySelectorAll('A[quiz],DIV[quiz],A[data-quiz],DIV[data-quiz]'); if(ql){if(ql.length){for(var k=0;k<ql.length;k++){ql[k].id='quiz-embed-'+k;ql[k].href="javascript:var i=document.getElementById('quiz-embed-"+k+"');try{qz.startQuiz(i)}catch(e){i.start=1;i.style.cursor='wait';i.style.opacity='0.5'};void(0);"}}};i['QP']=r;i[r]=i[r]||function(){(i[r].q=i[r].q||[]).push(arguments)},i[r].l=1*new Date();a=s.createElement(o),m=s.getElementsByTagName(o)[0];a.async=1;a.src=g;m.parentNode.insertBefore(a,m)})(window,document,'script','https://take.quiz-maker.com/3012/CDN/quiz-embed-v1.js','qp'); Got a good quiz question?Send Newsroom your questions. The post Newsroom daily quiz, Tuesday 19 March appeared first on Newsroom. ...
Bob’s relationship with certain members of Lincoln’s academic staff continued to deteriorate in the 1990s. Others supported him publicly, though articles such as Roland Clark’s 1993 piece in Growing Today cannot have pleased the university management. Clark wrote that Bob was selling onions from the Biological Husbandry Unit to a ...
The letters, which were published last week, were addressed to Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) Chairperson Megawati Sukarnoputri, National Democrat Party (NasDem) Chairperson Surya Paloh, National Awakening Party (PKB) Chairperson Muhaimin Iskandar, Justice and Prosperity Party (PKS) President Ahmad Syaikhu and United Development Party (PPP) Chairperson Muhammad Mardiono. In ...
Evicting more people from state housing is ignorant to the consequences of poverty, the Greens say, but the Housing Minister says it's a privilege that can be taken away if abused. ...
Evicting more people from state housing is ignorant to the consequences of poverty, the Greens say, but the Housing Minister says it's a privilege that can be taken away if abused. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Emerald L King, Lecturer in Humanities, University of Tasmania IMDB Between Netflix’s 2023 live-action version of One Piece, and its latest take on Avatar: The Last Airbender, fans are once again asking: why are live-action anime adaptations so tricky to ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Emerald L King, Lecturer in Humanities, University of Tasmania IMDB Between Netflix’s 2023 live-action version of One Piece, and its latest take on Avatar: The Last Airbender, fans are once again asking: why are live-action anime adaptations so tricky to ...
The government says it still intends to deliver tax cuts by July, but will not lock them in until they have got them past their coalition partners. ...
Kiingi Tuheitia Pootatau Te Wherowhero VII has hosted members of the Green Party Caucus at Tuurangawaewae Marae in Ngaaruawahia. The audience follows the King’s Hui-aa-Motu on 20 January, where more than 10,000 people gathered to discuss national ...
How NZ's health system is racist: https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/119627680/why-do-maori-suffer-inequality-in-the-health-system-some-experts-say-its-white-privilege
"On February 6, 2020, weather stations recorded the hottest temperature on record for Antarctica. Thermometers at the Esperanza Base on the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula reached 18.3°C (64.9°F)—around the same temperature as Los Angeles that day. The warm spell caused widespread melting on nearby glaciers.
The warm temperatures arrived on February 5 and continued until February 13, 2020. The images above show melting on the ice cap of Eagle Island and were acquired by the Operational Land Imager (OLI) on Landsat 8 on February 4 and February 13, 2020."
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/146322/antarctica-melts-under-its-hottest-days-on-record?fbclid=IwAR3OcrCYBnFUTbTamsK5ywoiVQBcxoIHUonwnzDgnwWG_oDcy3g2A-J58cE
Just sayin'
Warmer than Invercargill. 🙂
We's fucked. It's over. "How fast?" is the only question I still have. (Sort of, as in "How much time elapses between the body impacting on the ground at a great rate of knots and the actual moment of death?")
Eight of the 10 hottest temperatures in NZ occurred in 1973.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/100944546/new-zealands-10-hottest-temperatures-ever-recorded
Any particular reason you've dug up a two year old article?
Cos he thinks a single day's measurements lend controversy to what is actually a trend e.g we just went through our hottest ever decade.
Following the prompts of bots and boofheads on social media to prove lack of acumen. Spreading the shit to show lack of moral fibre.
When we need a mind-reading Moderator on this site, you should definitely submit your application with full CV.
I recall a lot of moderating required to manage CV's mindreading. 🙂
He has/had a unique mind 😉
Given that quite a few seem to have trouble reading what is actually written here I’d suggest they leave the mindreading out of it. It can easily lead to putting words into people’s mouths and making stupid assumptions and attributions, which usually lead to a war of words instead of robust debate.
Given that the pressure on Moderators will increase in Election Year there is bound to be less mindreading and more direct action. For example, some might find themselves shunted onto the Blacklist till Moderators have time and energy to sort out things whilst protecting the flow of comments and debate (and writing Posts!).
PS CV was before my time as Moderator on this site; I’ve had it relatively easy so far 😉
@ Muttonbird: don’t blame us for your predicament. It will be sorted so be patient till the Moderator has time to look into it; you can help (i.e. make it easier for all involved) or hinder and that is for you to choose. My personal advice: choose (your words) wisely. No more communication from me on this.
Yeah fair call. Should have been some prefix's like 'maybe', and 'perhaps'. But I'm not so stupid I can't draw the dots
Perhaps he's implying a single weather event makes climate change data controversial. Which is utter tosh.
Very likely, given his past form. I was hoping he'd elaborate…
Any particular reason you've dug up a two year old article?
History is more than just stuff that happened yesterday. I like history although I acknowledge that not everyone is a fan. 🙂
Climate is more than a day taken in isolation. Taking a single day in isolation looks remarkably like cherry picking which is a classic climate change denier technique.
As for history: needs relevant context, which you (funnily enough) fail to give.
Climate is more than a day taken in isolation.
Quite correct. But when Robert said that the hottest day on record has been recorded in Antarctica, you didn’t respond. That’s your prerogative but it’s hard to take you seriously. If you wish to call him a climate denier, you are welcome to do so. But given his previous comments on climate change, I think you’d be well wide of the mark.
That’s a reasonable comment albeit that Robert’s comment @ 2 was in line with CC, based on a recent observation, and he has no form as a CC ‘sceptic’ or denier.
Given that you’re a fan of (climate) history, here’s a little treasure trove for you: https://niwa.co.nz/climate/information-and-resources/nz-temperature-record
If your post was meant to be a reply to Robert's then why didn't your make it one?
Why I questioned you: you have form and have run these sort of distractions before. Robert's posting history shows he generally understands climate whereas yours contains repeated climate denial lines. As I said, context is important…
Did you bother to read the article about Antarctica? It provides some context: warm temperatures becoming more frequent this century when they were previously rare.
As you interested in climate history, perhaps you could look up what happened last time there was very high atmospheric CO2. What was Antarctica covered in?
perhaps you could look up what happened last time there was very high atmospheric CO2. What was Antarctica covered in?
Oh I dunno …
yours contains repeated climate denial lines.
You must be thinking of someone else. But if you can post a copy of what I’ve said in the past, you’ll realise that.
@ Ross
I read you as a reasonably smart contributor here; so I offer this simple, concrete explanation. Imagine people are walking past your shop doorway and you're measuring and recording their height (a simple smart camera would do the job).
Over the period of a week or so you'd notice that the data fell within a certain upper and lower limit. (You'd also quickly notice the bi-modal difference between males and females, but for the sake of the analogy, lets set that aside.) The actual height of any given person would be both stochastic and normally distributed within this range. The vast majority of people fall within 3 standard deviations of the average. Hopefully this 101 Statistics is familiar to you.
Interestingly you'd find some extreme outliers that happen at very low frequencies, but they are very rare. What is more interesting is that the reason why they are such outliers often has underlying medical causes that puts the reason for their extreme into a different class than the usual causes of height variation. Or imagine you were recording the temperature in a room on a daily basis, that was usually held between 20 – 30 degC. Then one day the data came back at -40degC for just that one day, then returned to normal. Is this real data? It's way more likely this one day was because the instrument had been turned off, rather than representing a real variation. On this basis it's reasonable to discard this extreme outlier because it will contaminate the long term record if you leave it in.
But then if you leave the camera recording long enough something else becomes apparent; over the period of decades the average height slowly increases. The change is far too small to notice on a daily or even yearly basis, but as a whole generation passes by it becomes obvious. At the large secondary school I went to I was one of the two or three tallest, but these days I get a crick in my neck looking up at them.
Note carefully … while the frequency of very tall kids between say 184 and 194cm has increased significantly, the frequency of the extreme outliers (274cm) has not … because the reason why they are so extreme is not driven by the underlying mechanism (improved nutrition in this case) that is causing the average height to rise.
Sorry if this is a laborious explanation, hopefully the parallel to climate change is obvious to you. I've made this point a few times now; both climate deniers and alarmists indulge in cherry picking weather events and climate to suit their agenda. They also frequently misrepresent extreme events without properly attributing them.
In simple terms climate is just weather trended to a 30 year basis. What we clearly see in the data is that over this time frame, average temperatures everywhere are rising. Case closed. What we don't know, and this is critical to understand, is what impact the increasing heat energy in the system is going to have on the variability of the weather and what impact on extreme events this will have. It’s reasonable to hypothesise that variability will increase but exactly how and where is not obvious; case definitely still open.
That complicates the discussion a lot.
Various govts over the years have attempted to make life bearable for those in need: give $50 winter heating allowances, meals at school, hardship allowances, etc.
When will those in power ever learn to fix the cause not try a bandage cure the symptoms ? if benefits, wage conditions are inadequate why not go the rather root ? Or do they not trust those in need to spend the $ wisely ?
Probably because as soon as you raise income the landlords will put the rent up
Rent caps. Screw these racketeering assholes.
Rent caps only work if there are enough homes already. Say, after a big state house building programme or when financial speculation incentives are structurally removed from the system.
So that's where the recent party-line digs about art auctions have fitted in: https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/410130/labour-got-donations-from-two-accused-in-national-party-case
Never put all your eggs in one basket.
I'm still trying to herd the chickens.
It’s no easier to school a flock of chickens than to flog a school of fish.
A bob each way so they backed a winner, wonder if they got anything for their donation
A piece of art? He got a piece of art.
I bought a piece of art in a NZLP auction. Can't remember what I paid for it, a print. But I got no favours for it.
I once donated, with permission from the artist, an art work for auction. It went for a good sum. I was given it by the artist who has since died, thereby immeasurably increasing its value. The painting was bought by a National party supporter who I know. I hope she is enjoying it, because she got no favours either apart from owning a fine painting by a top artist which is appreciating in value. Sometimes, just sometimes, there is nothing ulterior but a good deal all round. I lost a painting, another person got it, the NZLP got a good donation- all happy.
A piece of art?
I bought a piece of art in a NZLP auction. Can't remember what I paid for it, a print. But I got no favours for it, except for seeing it every day.
I once donated, with permission from the artist, an art work for auction. It went for a good sum. I was given it by the artist who has since died, thereby immeasurably increasing its value. The painting was bought by a National party supporter who I know. I hope she is enjoying it, because she got no favours either apart from owning a fine painting by a top artist which is appreciating in value. Sometimes, just sometimes, there is nothing ulterior but a good deal all round. I lost a painting, another person got it, the NZLP got a good donation- all happy.
Yes thats it, I'm sure the guy was just being benevolent
Can you point otherwise? To what personal benefit this man has achieved from buying an art work? You're saying that $10 grand buys influence? That's pretty cheap…….. in at least two ways.
You need at least $200 grand it seems for two MPs of superior quality.
Silent auction, indeed!
well, ten grand one way and a hundred k the other.
I guess they knew who was more likely to grant favours.
Price is what you pay value is what you get…
What value did the voters get from paying the price?
Beats me but they don't seem the type to throw around some cash without expecting something in return
In other words, just more hot air from you?
Pity, because we could have had a robust debate about the perverse influence of donations (declared and undeclared) on NZ politics.
I see you’ve found another topic to use your considerable bandwidth on.
Well heres my view, no public funding of political parties and all donations to be declared or up to $50 or some similar number
Whatever is easiest
Here’s my view: equal State funding for each political party standing in the Election. No monetary private donations at all.
Agree. And I have a similar proposition regarding private schools:
that private schools should be allowed to retain their 'special character' in curriculum, etc, but that in funding per student they should be strictly kept down to that of state schools.
I can live with that too 😉
Interesting post from kiwiblog, can any Greenies confirm if its correct?
https://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2020/02/greens_panicking.html
'I won’t lie, the last two polls aren’t looking good for us. Last night’s poll marks the second in a row that indicate we are at risk of falling below the 5% threshold'
You don’t have to be a “Greenie” to draw your own conclusions from polls. Unless you’re severely mathematically challenged or biased.
I actually wanted to know if the email was correct and that kiwiblog wasn't telling porkies, I'm well aware that NZFirst are well below the threshold and that the Greens are floundering (#labournomates) and its a beautiful thing to see
Why didn’t you actually ask the question that you actually wanted to know?
Why not ask the question on KB instead of linking to it here under false pretences?
Why not test out the e-mail for yourself and report back?
Why not stop wasting our time and attention here with your little wind-ups?
BTW, these are rhetorical questions.
Why didn’t you actually ask the question that you actually wanted to know?
– I did
Why not ask the question on KB instead of linking to it here under false pretences?
– No false pretences and more Greenies on here than on kiwiblog I suspect
Why not test out the e-mail for yourself and report back?
– I don't like giving emails out to political parties, who knows what they'll do with them
Why not stop wasting our time and attention here with your little wind-ups?
– Its political and interesting don't you think
BTW, these are rhetorical questions.
– Because I respect you enough as a poster to give you honest answers to questions
Well you will be pleased to know that the huge group of "undecided" means that your concern may well be misplaced. The government is also showing that they can still achieve a lot even with a party that is trying to position itself to appeal to National voters who may well be looking for another home. The mutual respect means that any of the three parties can advise that they will not support particular legislation; without that breaking the government. No small party has flourished from trying to work with National, who do not understand working with others; it was good that Bridges made his position clear. I am confident that the Green Party will achieve over 5%; I am however disappointed that the government did not accept the recommendation from the review to reduce the 5% threshold.
PR – do you actually understand the nature of a rhetorical question?
The common example is, 'What use is it to be rich if you are not happy?'
No answer expected, because the question is already telling you; 'It is no use to be rich if you are not happy,'
Try looking again at Incognito's questions in that light.
I did and I took it to mean that Incognito was being a flibbertigibbet so I answered completely truthfully, because I'm good like that
But you haven't looked at his/her questions again and understood what he/she was telling you. Too depressing?
Because this:
Why didn’t you actually ask the question that you actually wanted to know?
– I did
After that it was all moot wasn't it, Incognito was assuming I had ulterior motives for the question I asked whereas I actually asked the question I wanted an answer for
Evasion
Naah not really, I'm asking the question I want answered anything else is other peoples business I guess
Sigh
Your first attempt at a question @ 6 was vague, ambiguous, and pretty much unanswerable to anyone who had not read the post on KB or even for those who had read it. Your Q was followed by a link to divert traffic away to the sewer blog and quoted text that was self-evident.
Then, @ 6.1.1, you state that you actually wanted to know about the e-mail address, which you could have explained in the first place @ 6.
Diverting traffic to KB is generally not a good idea and with your personal political preferences, it was a logical assumption that this was your false pretence. Never mind, you would not have admitted it in any case.
Why ask if the e-mail address is legit if you have no interest whatsoever in sending them an e-mail?
Your diversion and wind-ups are time wasters and not “political and interesting”, IMO.
A rhetorical Q does not require an A but you seem unable to stop bleating.
So, here we are, answering your Q that you actually don’t give a toss about. Let’s just say that you have burnt quite a bit of credit with me for no gain whatsoever. Consider it throwing away money at a silent auction and leaving empty-handed.
I wasn't asking if the email address was correct, I was asking if the information in the email that was sent was correct.
IE was the information sent correct or was the information sent incorrect
"Let’s just say that you have burnt quite a bit of credit with me for no gain whatsoever."
Wow thats quite an arrogant statement don't you think
The Green Party campaign director going out into print like that is a really clear public warning that there's a really good chance the Green Party is about to go the way of the Maori Party.
Even in a mediocre government run by inherited surpluses and a single person's charisma, the Green delivery has been the standout worst since 2017.
The Green Party deserves the arse card this year.
.
Latest UMR / CB / RR Polls were conducted 7-8 months out from the 2020 Election.
Based on results from the same Pollsters at the same point in the run-up to previous Elections going back to 1999 … & making a few crucial assumptions about differing electoral contexts (always a tricky business) … I'm still predicting that:
Greens are heading for 6.0 – 6.5% Party Vote.
So I'm curious and you're quite switched on, whats your prediction for the party vote for National, Labour, NZFirst and Act?
.
Well, if you twisted my arm … then … (apart from retaliating with a quick jab in the Kidneys) … I'd be forced to say something along the lines of:
Green: 6.2%
NZF: 5.7%
But I haven't even begun to look at the Major Parties … needs to be done in a systematic way … so a few weeks away yet.
(Then again, in a few weeks’ time COVID-19 might be all we’re interested in talking about).
NZFirst that high? Interesting
They have a track record of a decent bounce at the poll that counts.
Consider NZF Poll support at the same point during their last 2 stints in Govt:
I'll use Colmar Brunton as an example:
2008
Colmar Brunton
April 2008 (same point out from Election): 1.5%
(Up 2.57 points on this at subsequent Election)
CB 4 Poll Average (Dec 2007-April 2008):: 1.9%
(Up 2.17 points on this at subsequent Election)
CB Average over previous 12 Months: 2.2%
(Up 1.87 points on this at subsequent Election)
2008 Election Result (Party Vote): 4.07%
1999
Colmar Brunton
April 1999 (same point out from Election): 2%
(Up 2.26 points at subsequent Election)
CB 4 Poll Average (Dec 1998-April 1999): 2.2%
(Up 2.06 points at subsequent Election)
CB Average over previous 12 Months: 2.2%
(Up 2.06 points at subsequent Election)
1999 Election Result (Party Vote):4.26%
2020
Colmar Brunton
Feb 2020 (same point out from Election): 3.3%
CB 4 Poll Average (July 2019 – Feb 2020): 3.8%
CB Average over previous 12 Months: 4.1%
2020 Election Result (Party Vote): looking very 5.5-6.0%
A similar comparison with UMR figures suggests something broadly similar, while TV3 Reid Research / CM stats would suggest NZF are heading a little lower (close to the 5% threshold).
So, the upshot of all of that – plus one or two assumptions about differing political / electoral contexts – plus a little bit of magic – leads me inexorably towards a 2020 NZF Party Vote of 5.7% …
… 5.68% to be exact 🙂
Thats cool but dont think Bridges ruling out Winnie will have an impact on his right leaning voters, they won't be happy knowing a vote for Winnie is a vote for Labour and all that
.
Yeah … but the problem with that argument:
Oppo Leader John Key also ruled out forming a coalition or entering any kind of support arrangement with NZ First in the run-up to the 2008 Election …
… and yet, as you can see, NZF still ended 2.6 points higher (at the 2008 Election) than they were polling in the Colmar Brunton 7 months out (ie the same point we're at currently).
3.3% (NZF in latest CB)
+ 2.6
= 5.9%
Thanks for that, swordfish. Do you have similar information for NZF for the Colmar Brunton polls for 2011, 2014 and 2017? I would be interested to see whether the same trends happened then between the polls and election results – but only if you have the info readily available.
veutoviper
NZF
.
2011
Colmar Brunton
April 2011 (same point out from Election): 2.7%
(Up 3.9 points on this at subsequent Election)
CB 4 Poll Average (Sep 2010 – April 2011): 3.0%
(Up 3.6 points on this at subsequent Election)
CB Average over previous 12 Months: 2.6%
(Up 4 points on this at subsequent Election)
2011 Election Result (Party Vote): 6.59%
2014
Colmar Brunton
Feb 2014 (same point out from Election): 3.1%
(Up 5.56 points on this at subsequent Election)
CB 4 Poll Average (July 2013 – Feb 2014):: 3.5%
(Up 5.16 points on this at subsequent Election)
CB Average over previous 12 Months: 3.4%
(Up 5.26 points on this at subsequent Election)
2014 Election Result (Party Vote): 8.66%
2017
Colmar Brunton
Feb 2017 (same point out from Election): 11%
(Down 3.8 points on this at subsequent Election)
CB 4 Poll Average (June 2016 – Feb 2017): 10.3%
(Down 3.1 points on this at subsequent Election)
CB Average over previous 12 Months: 10%
(Down 2.8 points on this at subsequent Election)
2017 Election Result (Party Vote): 7.2%
I think it’s most useful / appropriate to focus on NZF’s two stints in Govt (though, of course, they were ailing third term administrations = so no perfect comparisons).
Thanks for the extra information, swordfish. Really appreciate it.
I agree that it is probably "most useful / appropriate to focus on NZF’s two stints in Govt (though, of course, they were ailing third term administrations = so no perfect comparisons)". However, it is also interesting to see that the trends appear to have continued for the 2011 and 2014 elections. Re the 2017 election, the opposite downward trend in actual result is not surprising given the high polling and the extraordinary events that took place pre-election.
I have also tracked down your various predictions etc in Oct and Aug 2019 here on TS and looking at the whole lot together is now on my To Do list but have a few other priorities to be cleared before that can happen. Thanks again.
Time to sack the odious suit Shaw… and put a real socialist in charge – Bradford or McDonald.
Not trying to be funny but don't the Greens have a thing about equal gender representation and currently they 8 MPs but only two males…so a split of 75-25
Mind you I suppose he could be sacked and still stay on
Time for the Green Party to ditch environmenatlism in favour of socialism? I have to admit this makes as much sense as anything else you post.
I haven't been back and checked the email, but that quote matches my memory of it. However, the email was a request for donations, which always come with a message about how the county is doomed if you don't bung the party some dosh right away. This one was no different in that respect, and DPF's post is just the usual "fomenting happy mischief" in the interests of the National Party.
Though Labour should be worried, the Greens falling under 5% wouldn't do them any favours
Oh, for sure. I tend towards the view that the country would quite literally be doomed if the Greens fall below 5%, so I immediately bunged the party some dosh as requested. I don't think many in Labour share that opinion about the value of the Greens, though.
(I'm no fan of the Greens of course) Thats quite short-sighted of Labour I'd have thought
I suspect the Greens have more support in Labour than you imagine – quite a few people do "christmas tree" voting (Labour and Green), and the smart way would be to electorate Labour and party vote Green, as they're the ones closest to the threshold.
NZ1, on the other hand, I reckon most Labour and Greens could take or leave. Supergold card good, immigration, guns, fossil fuel policies bad lol.
I hope you're right that I'm wrong(!) about Labour in this respect.
… quite a few people do "christmas tree" voting (Labour and Green)...
Me too. Apologies to whoever the Green candidate in my electorate will be, but I probably won't even learn your name – keeping the Labour electorate MP as this electorate's MP will be my priority.
Indeed, that’s why I frown upon unthinking commenters who link to it with questionable motives.
Yep. The email to members/supporters/donor is just normal fundraising technique. I get these all the time from Labour saying how hard the fight is going to be and how every little bit helps. Will you chip in?
Farrar may as well have done a post on each Party's election year email correspondence with their supporters but he chose to highlight the Greens' email because that is the Party he is most afraid of this week.
What's a silent auction?
https://www.google.com/search?q=silent+auction&rlz=1C1CHBF_enNZ690NZ690&oq=silent+auction&aqs=chrome
Thanks PR.
It's conducted around dinner tables. Going rate is $100 grand per MP……….
Interesting link to TDB on Greens, electorates and managing the known votes for best outcome.
https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2020/02/23/greens-have-most-to-fear-from-jacindas-time-cover-why-labour-should-make-an-electorate-deal-in-central-auckland/#comment-492362
I like it! I mean my one hope for the election was to see Winnie gone, didn't care who got into power as long as Winnie was gone but to see the Greens floundering at this stage in the cycle is just the cherry on the top.
Lets face it Winnies going to be going at the Greens big time from now until the election to get back into parliament so its going to be a rough ride for them
Maybe if they get a shellacking in the election it might force them to think of a better way, a way to be able to work with all parties for the sake of the environment…
Remind me again why the 5% threshold is a Good Thing? Remind me again why doing deals with electorate seats because of the MMP rule giving parties with electorate seat/s a % of the seats commensurate with their party vote , but otherwise restricting minor parties to a 5% threshold?
So far people on this blog have advocated for special deals for three parties, Greens, ACT and NZF. I bet others would welcome TOP with 2.4% on the 2017 vote, the Conservatives etc.
I am sure that a Green/NZF % would outweigh a ACT, Conservative, TOP, Maori league.
It might even encourage the full impact of MMP by inducing the National Party to shrug off its factions and devolve into at least two parties similar to the ones it coalesced from in the Thirties.
Well I'd like MMP changed (no I don't want FPP), last election the largest party has nothing to do with government and to me thats wrong because that means 44% of the voters are ignored.
This election it looks like Labour will be a one term govt and as much as I'll enjoy the wailing and gnashing of teeth of the left (and I will) it'll still be a really large percentage of voters that're now ignored.
Is MMP the best electoral system, can it be improved? If the threshold can be lowered then what other changes can be made to make the system fairer?
If the polls you are citing are correct, then it would easily be possible that the party/coalition with a higher percentage of the vote would goive way to one party with a buy-in deal in Epsom with a lower vote.
FFP has dealt that situation in NZ before. One reason why we went to MMP. Now the intricacies of MMP could deliver the very same result if the Greens and NZF were to fall below the 5% threshold without buy-in deals in Nelson, Auckland Central, Northland as have been suggested.
Theres more chance of me spontaneously growing my hair back then there is Jones winning Northland.
Nelson is a possibility but not until Smith retires (hes really well liked up there)
Auckland Central isn't likely either (no matter what Bradbury thinks)
To see how it is to win an electorate seat even with a deal just look at Epsom:
Act 16 500 votes and National 10500, I mean with the deal on you'd expect Act to be higher
Incorrect!
The numbers you are quoting are the Candidate votes for David Seymour (16,505) and Paul Goldsmith (10,986), respectively.
The Party votes were:
Green Party 3,263
National Party 22,875
Labour Party 9,575
New Zealand First Party 1,229
ACT New Zealand 696
https://www.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2017/electorate-details-12.html
No wonder that you predict even four seats for ACT
A large proportion of the Epsom electorate are very well informed (and another part is not, when you look at the number of votes for the other candidates!). However, in other electorates there may be too many “low info” voters to pull it off so this makes these a risky proposition. There’s something counter-intuitive or counter-instinctive to vote for the enemy to win the war and obviously many can’t bring themselves to doing it.
“He’s really well liked up there”. Not by anyone I know. And the Labour and Green candidates got more votes than he did last time round so many locals clearly think it’s time for him to go.
Well maybe you need to start talking to other people.
The Tasman electorate was Labour from 1972 to 1990 when it was won by Nick Smith, he held it for two elections before heading to Nelson
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tasman_(New_Zealand_electorate)#1990_election
He then won the Nelson electorate in 1996 which hes held ever since, a couple of points to note is that his lowest voting turnout was 2017 when he only got 40% of the vote plus prior to Nick Smith Labour had held that seat since 1957
So you and your friends may not like him but enough people certainly do
Reading comprehension does not seem to be your strong point. You have not rebutted Prickles’ comment at all. Nick Smith’s share of the vote went down by 12.13% and the combined vote of the Labour and Green’s candidates was higher than Nick’s.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_(New_Zealand_electorate)#2017_election
Only 40.69% of the Nelson voters voted for him, and 53.97% for Labour+Greens but they were ignored. This wrong should be corrected in September, don’t you agree?
wow, Matt Lawrey really jumped up for the Greens.
And Nick Smith last gained in % support in 2008. Going down ever since (although one was almost level). Wonder if it's a demographic change in the electorate.
Quite a few regulars on this site are in the Nelson area. I can’t comment.
"Only 40.69% of the Nelson voters voted for him, and 53.97% for Labour+Greens but they were ignored. This wrong should be corrected in September, don’t you agree?"
I agree, ignoring that many votes is not good at all.
Maybe a power sharing model oer something could be instigated or maybe STV could give a clearer decision.
Selecting electorate mps via STV or similar isn't a bad idea.
From what I can gather from speaking to people across the political spectrum here at the top of the South (not just my friends and family – some of whom, incidentally, are blue to the depths of their souls – family that is, not friends so much) even the blue ones think that nick smith has passed his use-by date. Of course when he is at the market he surrounds himself with sycophants. He’s not so keen in taking the time to speak to anyone with a different perspective on what is important. He does, however, deign to speak to anyone slightly red or green who may enable him to get his photo in the local paper. Many locals are embarrassed to have him “representing” us. The only person nick smith represents is nick smith.
Just a asde, PR, when I got a reverse mirror view of my back, I was astonished to see how old age had brought on hairiness, almost as much as the chest. Have you checked your own back lately? I suspect that you may have already grown those hairs you offer on condition. Or they will soon appear anyway. You may then consider yourself as paying a debt.
Ahh see I wrote my hair back not my back hair because I don't need any help growing my back hair
When they talked about growing hair where there was none before they never mentioned the back, shoulders, nose or ears…
Yes… Every so often, one needs to put ones reading glasses on when looking in the mirror.
Whatever form of election we have, it will result in voters who supported the losing parties "being ignored". So what?
Just because thats the way its always been doesn't mean it always has to be that way
According to the simplistic belief about democracy, up to 49% of the voters are ‘ignored’ at any given time (and sometimes more). In your thinking, it is wrong to ignore 44.4% of the voters but is it ok to then ignore 36.9% of the voters?
You sound like a semi-utilitarian.
Feel free to read/re-read my Post: https://thestandard.org.nz/mmp-mark-ii/
As I said:
"This election it looks like Labour will be a one term govt and as much as I'll enjoy the wailing and gnashing of teeth of the left (and I will) it'll still be a really large percentage of voters that're now ignored."
I don't want a really large percentage of voters ignored
MMP is a step in the right direction but not a magic bullet. The FPP mentality is still strong, partly because it underpins the status quo.
Contrary to common belief, irrespective of who’s in Government, nobody is more or less ignored and status quo prevails, by and large. This is good and bad because there are definitely members of (our own as well as the global) society who are literally on the cliff’s edge or are falling between the cracks. Nobody seems to give a rat’s arse because they all are too busy looking at and appeasing the ‘majority’ or the ‘centre’.
This next election is basically a FPP election. Labour (maybe the Greens sneak in) v National (with a couple of Act seats), NZ (the media?) just doesn't seem to "get" MMP
I mean I'm legit in wanting to see National and the Greens compromise to work together or Labour and Act or even National and Labour (they have more in common than differences)
I just think that no party has all the answers, National need some prompting from the left, the Greens need some conservatives to smooth out the edges etc etc
I believe there is more cooperation and collaboration going on than the SMS make us believe. It is in the MSM’s interest to magnify differences and contrast these as insurmountable fault lines. The public seems to swallow this without choking. Interestingly, and dare I say it, many political blogs and their commentariats seem to be even worse …
Your statement pretty much defines you as a idiot politically.
I’d say that the probability of NZF getting back in approaches certainty – simply because they are small targeting their audience. Of course that is why their audience doesn’t get picked up in polling. Cynical buggers those NZF voters – they don’t talk to pollsters and never really have. The small audience is course why the Nats are gunning for them again – but using the same tactic and pretext as last time. FFS how stupid are those impotent dildos?
And what rough edges? Problem with the greens is that politically they don’t have them. It makes it hard for them to develop a ‘voice’. And BTW: conservationist parties of the type you’re wanting basically don’t exist politically. Offhand I can think of about 8 in my lifetime. They lose their deposits.
The important difference between National and Labour is that Labour thinks longer term and is more fiscally prudent on a long term basis. No point in trying to do what National does of developing a beneficiary bashing strategy as National does if all that means is that the opportunities are closed off for their kids. Cutting taxes for Labour is what you do AFTER you manage to grow the whole economy rather than just giving to their donors to squander. etc..
In my opinion National are short-term accountants who can’t think past their own wallets and their prejudices, and who hate to invest in a future. They are inherently economic wastrals because they selfishly don’t consider the whole of our future together.
In other words, if Labour headed down your proposed path, then I’d have a great deal of satisfaction in raising a revolution. It is the reason why Shearer was a darling of the right and something that a lot of us helped kick out.
Well as the self-proclaimed worlds greatest sy-sop I bow to your greater knowledge in all things political
[lprent: self-proclaimed worlds greatest sy-sop. That is an outright lie. Banned until October 2021 – unless you make a public abject apology or find evidence that I actually said or wrote that phrase.
From my memory this was just some dumbarse meme made up by one of the fools from kiwiblog. And you have had similar bans for this before. ]
impotent dildos ?
impotent dildos – they vibrate all over the place saying that they have a purpose and a reason for existence, but never actually even try to do something about achieving it. Instead other people waste far too much time on them.
I don't want a really large percentage of voters ignored
Oh, it's worse than that. The binning of their votes effectively redistributes their vote share to parties they didn't vote for. That's the whole basis of National trying to drive NZF below the threshold, eg suppose a hypothetical example of 100 votes, of which National gets 46 and 10 votes are wasted. National goes from having 46 out of 100 votes to 46 out of 90, so its vote share goes from 46% to 52% and a ruling majority. That's the unspoken reason for National and Labour setting the threshold so high in the first place.
QED
So what can be done in this situation to nullify that effect?
Good question! My own approach is "A plague a' both your houses" and not vote for either of them, but it's probably not an approach with wide appeal…
That could be a hoot, imagine Act, NZFirst and the Greens being able to form govt
– 5% helps stop loony extremists get in to Parliament. Doesn't stop them, but it helps.
– doing deals is completely part of the cooperative nature of MMP
– bringing in one or two MPs with deals can however add a bit of spice to a government, and even one or two good big concepts. Painful as it was, we wouldn't have merged Auckland without it.
– National MPs know which way their bread is buttered. There's only the Alliance to look to on that lesson. They have a really good chance at winning this year – unusually after only one term and new leadership.
Are the Greens and NZF, or for that matter TOP, loony extremists?
Greens and New Zealand First got in over 5%.
They cater to a small fringe each, but they're not completely loony.
Loony is in the eye of the beholder 😉
Thankfully it was in the eye of the Royal Commission who recommended the MMP threshold as well.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Royal_Commission_on_the_Electoral_System#Recommendations
Good work there.
Thankfully some sense between the Commission and the whole of Parliament.
Interesting five recommendations that I had forgotten about.
The Commission unanimously recommended the adoption of mixed member proportional, with a threshold of 4% and that a referendum be held before or at the 1987 election.
They also recommended that the Māori seats be abolished, with Māori parties instead receiving representation if they did not pass the threshold.
That the number of MPs raise to 120 (although they considered 140 would be ideal, they realised that it would receive too much public backlash).
The term of Parliament be raised to four years.
The Commission recommended that citizens initiated referendums not be implemented. However, they were in 1993.
In essence, no recommendations were adopted since the only one adopted was in itself a compromise position over MP numbers.
Despite reviews and reports, nothing much changes in NZ politics. Steady as she goes …
Loony is in the eye of the beholder
It's amazing how many people don't seem to get that.
If the Greens and NZF were below 5% as some pundits predict for September 2020 was my starting point. Funnily enough, when some political questionnaire came out in 2017, I was closest to TOP, they said. I was surprised at that; so definitely not loony!
I’m not frightened by the NZF left faction, and the Greens when not reduced to their authoritarian rump are also fine with me as partners.
It's quite an extremist conformity view that you have to have at least 1 in 20 of your fellow citizens to share a similar set of beliefs in order to not be labelled a loony extremist.
Me, I'd be happier holding off labeling someone a loony extremist until those sharing their set of beliefs falls below 1 in 120 of the population.
44% are ignored, yet 56% aren't? Sounds like democracy to me.
On the money, IFL. The Nat voting centre-right are disciplined enough to recognise that they have to accommodate their factions within the party. That's why there is a bit of a move to the right in their pronouncements, and candidate selection, to shore up their support there.
Labour supported merging Auckland’s councils, and the Nats led most of the work on it with Rodney as a convenient figleaf. Would have happened without his party.
Maybe. It wouldn't have looked like this.
Without a convenient yellow figleaf they would have had to acknowledge more of the extreme elements as their own party’s agenda. Much like charter schools, etc. Guess that may have been unpalatable enough to discard. As it was, they did not go through with subsequently privatising Watercare.
If "looney extremists" are what some voters want why shouldn't they get into parliament. NZ is deemed to be a democracy when all is said and done. Better to have a zero threshold and let the chips fall where they may. The high 5% threshold benefits only the status quo.
Today's "looney extremist " party may well be tomorrow's majority party.
And I would agree with you, once they've got the credibility and policy-sense to get to 5%.
You are demonstrating an attitude that, I am sorry to say, is closer to a National Party ethos than that of The Green Party, Labour or even NZ First. National are careful about what they say in public, but their policies and decisions when in government have demonstrated they are prepared to write off a large segment of our population. Labour and the Green Party have demonstrated that they are about all New Zealanders – they want thriving businesses to create the equal opportunities that National only pays lip service to. NZ First has positioned itself as being between National and other parties – the 'keep them honest'" mantra that worked well for "Captain Sensible". All three however are looking to govern for all New Zealanders. If we truly believe in equal opportunity, respect for others, then we must accept that our personal views will not be held by all. To promote a system for our elections that seeks to make it hard for new parties to start, or to exclude smaller parties due to an arbitrary level of votes that they have to achieve, is in my view destructively elitist. Your attitude towards NZ First is disrespectful to a large number of New Zealanders , and essentially bordering on being anti-democratic. I appreciate that many see politics as if it is a card game – it has meaning for most New Zealanders that is beyond that level; do not demean whatever party you support by effectively saying that some people matter more than others.
Well said!
FIFY
The Greens just don't have a compelling electorate candidate for Auckland Central. Nikki Kaye is just a really, really good electorate MP.
The Greens could propose a more attractive deal in Nelson.
Nick Smith is finally down to a reachable majority of 4,000 – with a running start, a pole vault and a favorable wind.
2017
Nick Smith 14,966
Rachel Boyack 10,956
Matt Lawrey 8,324
Nelson is the place to secure the Greens future in Parliament, if Labour really needs it.
I'd be very surprised if the PM goes for any deal anywhere though.
Yeah Nelsons probably the best option, once he retires that is. I've been up to Nelson at Christmas time the last few years and Nick Smith just seems really popular (this was at the Nelson market to be fair) so many people at his tent and hardly ayone else at the others
He has delivered for the Nelson area like the proverbial milkman.
That Waimea Dam is one of his biggest deliverables. Sure it's going over budget – what major infrastructure doesn't? It's a real region-changer.
A great transfer of wealth. Make his party donors proud.
I'm thinking, "flies" and remembering the Nick Smith sculpture made from cow manure.
I don’t think so either but I think it is largely irrelevant for two reasons:
One, will the electorate in question actually understand the ‘hint’, ‘suggestion’, ‘guidance’, or ‘instruction’ to vote for their non-preferred candidate to change the chances (possible outcome) of a certain coalition deal in Wellington?
Two, voters are free to vote in the way they see fit and nobody, not even the PM, can make them vote in another way, thankfully.
Epsom seems to be the only electorate so far that has shown enough political nous to pull it off successfully. Barry Coates and David Parker had 9,852 votes combined, which could have been used to try thwarting the National/ACT deal.
It's Christmas time, turkeys.
/
https://twitter.com/nicktolhurst/status/1231168412266749952
Yep, Lush are doing something similar.
Sanders storms Nevada. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bernie-sanders-wins-nevada-caucuses-takes-national-democratic-lead-2020-02-22
This is good news for Trump
Truly foolish comment. Are you a member of the Democratic National Committee, perchance?
Seriously? You don't think Trump wants to go up against Saunders? Of course he does, so this is good news to Trump.
Heck, even Pooters agrees with you.
Dunno about Saunders, but he certainly wouldn't want to go against Sanders. Trump fears Bernie almost as much as the corrupt and delusional DNC fears him.
Trump knows, just as well as you and everyone else knows, that in every metric, Bernie Sanders outperformed Trump in 2016. The DNC installed the unlikeable and unelectable Clinton instead.
Incorrect. Trump wants to against a socialist that honeymooned in Russia, supported the Sandinistas, recently had a heart attack, millionaire that owns three homes (but rich people are bad), wants to take away peoples healthcare that they like and replace with a health care system that he doesn't know how much will cost or how to implement it
Trump would have had problems with Gabbard but the DNC took care of that, the only candidate Trump would like to go against more would be Warren
a socialist that honeymooned in Russia,
That is wrong…how, exactly?
supported the Sandinistas,
Whereas you support the Contra terror squads illegally armed and supported by the United States?
recently had a heart attack,
He's a lot fitter than Trump.
millionaire that owns three homes (but rich people are bad),
Don't think he said all rich people are bad. His critique is more analytical and intelligent than your portrayal of it.
wants to take away peoples healthcare
<snip rest of ignorant Leighton Smith-level ranting>….
That is wrong…how, exactly?
– What do you think Trumps ads are going to be, add in Bernie praising Castro, thinking bread lines are a good thing, potentially Russia interference (ironic really), Trumps problem is going to be what not to attack Bernie on
Whereas you support the Contra terror squads illegally armed and supported by the United States?
– Um what?
He's a lot fitter than Trump.
– You and I both don't know that but what we do know is Bernie had a heart attack on the campaign trail and there hasn't been any suggestion of Trump not being physically up to the job
Don't think he said all rich people are bad. His critique is more analytical and intelligent than your portrayal of it.
No thats true, he just doesn't think billionaires should exist which is interesting given that of the 10 richest people in the USA most seem to be democrats (or at least vote that way)
https://patch.com/new-jersey/pointpleasant/forbes-400-3-nj-billionaires-among-richest-america
wants to take away peoples healthcare
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/23/health/private-health-insurance-medicare-for-all-bernie-sanders.html
lol
yeah, he just takes his annual physical in unscheduled instalments.
Now, maybe he just needed viagra, or maybe it'll be another weird story in a hundred years from now like Grover Cleveland getting secret cancer surgery on a boat.
Thats it?
There hasn't been any reasonable suggestion he physically isn't calpable of being up to the job and being that the media breathlessly report and each and everything little he thing he does and then blow it out of proportion doesn't that strike you as telling
I mean it'd be different if he had a heart attack or something…
well, that and the fact the his medical report said he was the same height as Obama, for all we know the fucker could be dead and they're pulling a Weekend at Bernie's.
The "socialist/communist" attack line is dead in the water. I mean, wasn't Obama a communist too? It's been robbed of any impact by simple over use.
Anyway.
Assuming no fuckery bringing about a brokered convention, and hopefully no assassination ( And yes, I think that has to remain on the table of possibilities given the record of entrenched liberal power around the world…what…you reckon they'll only ever "off" brown skinned dudes?!), Trump will lose very heavily to Sanders for the simple reason he cannot tack to the left of Sanders with his rhetoric as he did with Clinton.
Trump will lose very heavily to Sanders for the simple reason he cannot tack to the left of Sanders with his rhetoric as he did with Clinton.
Yes I agree. The admittedly small sample of Trump voters I have talked with, all without exception were well aware of his shortcomings as a human being. While Trump does have his hard core supporters, and the electorate is very polarised at present, I still don't think they're enough on their own.
You are correct, while the DNC will bank on Sanders losing to Trump, I suspect the US electorate may well grievously disappoint them.
Sorry but I disagree and heres why: Its the economy…you know the rest
https://www.thebalance.com/us-economic-outlook-3305669
Its good
https://www.statista.com/statistics/194151/unemployment-rate-of-african-americans-in-the-us-since-1990/
Very good
https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2019/sep/26/west-virginia-republican-party/unemployment-women-lowest-point-almost-70-years/
Very good
Hell he could just play this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AqzoO-Hu1mk
I mean its not just me saying it:
https://www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/jobs-market-gangbusters-trump-200207161459641.html
https://www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/economy-created-whopping-266000-jobs-month-191206133402185.html
Yes the economy is the strong play at the moment. There are many complex reasons for this and almost none of them to do with Trump. On the other hand he does get credit for being the first US President to confront the CCP on the economic front.
Plus the endless Democrat Russiagate delusions, the weak Ukrainian impeachment debacle, and now the threat of COVID19 have only strengthened his hand.
So yes he does have some real strengths. But most Americans in their heart of hearts would wish for a better person in the White House.
"But most Americans in their heart of hearts would wish for a better person in the White House."
No doubt
Trump would have had problems with Gabbard but the DNC took care of that,
I'm inclined to agree. In my view the DNC are running this election as a losing proposition, with the explicit intention of using it to knock out elements of the party they don't like. The last thing they want is someone they cannot control like Sanders, Yang or Gabbard actually winning.
I've got a lot of time for Gabbard and Yang, she went on Joe Rogan and he went on Ben Shapiro
Reasons to feel hopeful about America
No. 1: Max Blumenthal
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IT1-tbJ9Mak&feature=emb_logo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iruf0Qc7saw
Tuckers nailing it again
It's not unusual for Tucker to hit the nail on the head. It basically depends on the topic. On war, he's on point. On the bullshittery of liberal elites, he's on point. Immigration and other stuff…not so much.
Anyway. I'm not really awaiting responses from the liberal twats who bought into the Steele Dossier, the Russia Hoax and the Mueller as white knight bullshit – like, how they going to square this nonsense that's coming from the intelligence community now that both Trump and Sanders are Putin puppets?! 🙂
Sanders got hookers in Moscow, too? golly.
That the supposed shit on Trump, is it?
The obvious question that peeps who bought the kompromat line is this…
If Russian intelligence services had dirt on Trump, then how much more dirt do you think lies in the hands of the FBI and CIA?
I don't think there's a soul out there who would claim Trump is anything but a corrupt and venal expression of humanity…but who is more likely to have the ability to exercise leverage over him?
As a possible pointer, we might look to his foreign policy, how that stacks up against the rhetoric he spouted when running for office, and whether it favours Russian interests or US Intelligence Community interests.
Arming fascists in Ukraine. Attempting a coup in Venezuela. Killing the German/Russian pipeline deal. Arming head-choppers in Syria. Pulling out of Russia/US arms treaties. And etc.
Maybe the FBI and CIA have a problem with the concept of blackmailing potus, for some reason.
And try listing the way he fucked up NATO and handed over bases to Russian soldiers in Syria, and fucked the Kurds.
But rather than having this debate a fucking cheeto again, I've not seen anyone say Sanders is a Russian tool. Sure, I've seen suggestions that Russia fucking with the elections again is helping Sanders, but nothing in the vague ballpark of them having leverage over him.
The ground you've stood on these past years…wobble, wobble.
This from the guy who names the Steele Dossier and then appears to not recognise the reference.
The Steele Dossier was as shit smeared toilet paper. I said that at the time.
Maddow on MSNBC and all the other Russia Hoax pundits notwithstanding…plus the soggy pissed on mess that was the Mueller Report (you geddit?) and the bullshit impeachment that sought to resurrect elements of failed propaganda…it’s all only served to highlight the shit of both that dossier and subsequent ramblings and rantings.
But hey. You believed it all. Such is life.
Which is all irrelevant to your "That the supposed shit on Trump, is it?".
Which actually makes sense – I really can't understand how you regard the Mueller Report as a "soggy mess" when half a dozen people got sent to prison because of it. But if you're not bothering to refresh your memory or keep track of the news, then your sloganeering makes more sense. They're just bardic phrases, rather than accurate descriptions.
Name one person who received jail time as. a. direct. result. of. something revealed by Mueller and integral to accusations of collusion.
google. it. your. damned. self.
Not. a. one. 🙂
What was Flynn lying about again?
Not collusion.
lol
Wasn't Flynn lying about conducting negotiations with the Russian ambassador when Flynn wasn't part of the us govt?
What about Papadopoulos – what was he lying about?
The obvious question that peeps who bought the kompromat line is this…
If Russian intelligence services had dirt on Trump, then how much more dirt do you think lies in the hands of the FBI and CIA?
The Russian strategy may be even more complex then thought due to asymmetric behaviour. such as Surkov.
“It was the first non-linear war,” writes Surkov in a new short story, “Without Sky,” published under his pseudonym and set in a dystopian future after the “fifth world war”:
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/11/hidden-author-putinism-russia-vladislav-surkov/382489/
The explanation may be simpler in this sense; in a world where all nations are connected physically, socially and economically …. it is inevitable they will also influence each other politically.
Why would you expect otherwise?
Pretty sneaky those Russians to get both of them like that
Of the many sources I routinely touch base with, Carlson's often the best value.
No-one is all-seeing or perfect, but he's worth listening to.
I don't think hes beholden to anyone, hes his own man it seems
Sustainable NZ leader Vernon Tava allegedly asked his party secretary to 'doctor' membership records.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/02/sustainable-nz-leader-vernon-tava-accused-of-ordering-membership-records-doctored.html
Schadenfreude bath time. He (or his buddies) also doctored the parties online presence (FB) so detractors were blocked. Was not interested in folk asking hard questions, or having a conversation. Only co-opting others media for smearing Greenpeace & the Green Party with. And did I mention he’s got a problem with his hands…
And we have a winner.
https://twitter.com/magicmuggle01/status/1231470119177670656
Darn! He would have been the perfect candidate for either leader of ACT or president of Federated Farmers.
A must-read.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/opinion/119702448/in-case-you-havent-been-paying-attention-i-am-a-lefty-liberal-snowflake-treehugger?fbclid=IwAR2vcbnZoQJHJG21wAG5Oi4UP06HaB5aaCSgfKAVHbc1GJcEvl76GkMnf5c
Very good read, thanks!
From Syria to the Arctic.
//
The Yamal Peninsula contains some of the biggest known reserves of natural gas on the planet. This remote peninsula in the Russian Arctic extends for 700 kilometres into the Kara Sea, and now several pipelines, offshore gas fields, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals have made it their home. Those tens of millions of cubic metres of natural gas have attracted Russia's state-owned gas companies and several international investors; in 2008, Gazprom announced its Yamal Project, to unlock the region's hydrocarbons on a vast scale.
Yamal is also home to 15,000 people, 10,000 of whom are Nenets reindeer herders
Indigenous rights activists have also raised concerns about what this large-scale energy extraction could mean for the Nenets and other indigenous peoples of Russia's far north. Dmitry Berezhkov is a member of the Itelmen people from the Kamchatka Peninsula and the former vice-president of the Russian Association of Indigenous Peoples of the North (RAIPON), a Moscow-based NGO. Berezhkov says that he was pressured by the Russian security services in the capital into framing RAIPON as a threat to the state.
[…]
I spoke to Berezhkov about the consequences of natural gas exploitation for indigenous people in Russia's north. The interview has been edited for length and clarity.
Maxim Edwards: What does the future hold for the indigenous peoples of the Yamal Peninsula?
https://globalvoices.org/2020/02/20/pipeline-problems-for-indigenous-peoples-on-russias-yamal-peninsula/
Cardboard cut-out Poto Williams is great, ain't she?
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/119726574/governments-terrible-betrayal-of-stranded-afghan-interpreter