The Waitangi Tribunal red flagged the ongoing disparities in Māori health last year. It determined a likely cause of disparities was racism, both systemic and personal, and stereotyping in the health system.
If Māori were treated the same as non-Māori in health, the tribunal found, there should be no difference in health outcomes or interventions.
"On February 6, 2020, weather stations recorded the hottest temperature on record for Antarctica. Thermometers at the Esperanza Base on the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula reached 18.3°C (64.9°F)—around the same temperature as Los Angeles that day. The warm spell caused widespread melting on nearby glaciers.
The warm temperatures arrived on February 5 and continued until February 13, 2020. The images above show melting on the ice cap of Eagle Island and were acquired by the Operational Land Imager (OLI) on Landsat 8 on February 4 and February 13, 2020."
We's fucked. It's over. "How fast?" is the only question I still have. (Sort of, as in "How much time elapses between the body impacting on the ground at a great rate of knots and the actual moment of death?")
Given that quite a few seem to have trouble reading what is actually written here I’d suggest they leave the mindreading out of it. It can easily lead to putting words into people’s mouths and making stupid assumptions and attributions, which usually lead to a war of words instead of robust debate.
Given that the pressure on Moderators will increase in Election Year there is bound to be less mindreading and more direct action. For example, some might find themselves shunted onto the Blacklist till Moderators have time and energy to sort out things whilst protecting the flow of comments and debate (and writing Posts!).
PS CV was before my time as Moderator on this site; I’ve had it relatively easy so far 😉
@ Muttonbird: don’t blame us for your predicament. It will be sorted so be patient till the Moderator has time to look into it; you can help (i.e. make it easier for all involved) or hinder and that is for you to choose. My personal advice: choose (your words) wisely. No more communication from me on this.
Climate is more than a day taken in isolation. Taking a single day in isolation looks remarkably like cherry picking which is a classic climate change denier technique.
As for history: needs relevant context, which you (funnily enough) fail to give.
Quite correct. But when Robert said that the hottest day on record has been recorded in Antarctica, you didn’t respond. That’s your prerogative but it’s hard to take you seriously. If you wish to call him a climate denier, you are welcome to do so. But given his previous comments on climate change, I think you’d be well wide of the mark.
That’s a reasonable comment albeit that Robert’s comment @ 2 was in line with CC, based on a recent observation, and he has no form as a CC ‘sceptic’ or denier.
If your post was meant to be a reply to Robert's then why didn't your make it one?
Why I questioned you: you have form and have run these sort of distractions before. Robert's posting history shows he generally understands climate whereas yours contains repeated climate denial lines. As I said, context is important…
Did you bother to read the article about Antarctica? It provides some context: warm temperatures becoming more frequent this century when they were previously rare.
As you interested in climate history, perhaps you could look up what happened last time there was very high atmospheric CO2. What was Antarctica covered in?
I read you as a reasonably smart contributor here; so I offer this simple, concrete explanation. Imagine people are walking past your shop doorway and you're measuring and recording their height (a simple smart camera would do the job).
Over the period of a week or so you'd notice that the data fell within a certain upper and lower limit. (You'd also quickly notice the bi-modal difference between males and females, but for the sake of the analogy, lets set that aside.) The actual height of any given person would be both stochastic and normally distributed within this range. The vast majority of people fall within 3 standard deviations of the average. Hopefully this 101 Statistics is familiar to you.
Interestingly you'd find some extreme outliers that happen at very low frequencies, but they are very rare. What is more interesting is that the reason why they are such outliers often has underlying medical causes that puts the reason for their extreme into a different class than the usual causes of height variation. Or imagine you were recording the temperature in a room on a daily basis, that was usually held between 20 – 30 degC. Then one day the data came back at -40degC for just that one day, then returned to normal. Is this real data? It's way more likely this one day was because the instrument had been turned off, rather than representing a real variation. On this basis it's reasonable to discard this extreme outlier because it will contaminate the long term record if you leave it in.
But then if you leave the camera recording long enough something else becomes apparent; over the period of decades the average height slowly increases. The change is far too small to notice on a daily or even yearly basis, but as a whole generation passes by it becomes obvious. At the large secondary school I went to I was one of the two or three tallest, but these days I get a crick in my neck looking up at them.
Note carefully … while the frequency of very tall kids between say 184 and 194cm has increased significantly, the frequency of the extreme outliers (274cm) has not … because the reason why they are so extreme is not driven by the underlying mechanism (improved nutrition in this case) that is causing the average height to rise.
Sorry if this is a laborious explanation, hopefully the parallel to climate change is obvious to you. I've made this point a few times now; both climate deniers and alarmists indulge in cherry picking weather events and climate to suit their agenda. They also frequently misrepresent extreme events without properly attributing them.
In simple terms climate is just weather trended to a 30 year basis. What we clearly see in the data is that over this time frame, average temperatures everywhere are rising. Case closed. What we don't know, and this is critical to understand, is what impact the increasing heat energy in the system is going to have on the variability of the weather and what impact on extreme events this will have. It’s reasonable to hypothesise that variability will increase but exactly how and where is not obvious; case definitely still open.
Various govts over the years have attempted to make life bearable for those in need: give $50 winter heating allowances, meals at school, hardship allowances, etc.
When will those in power ever learn to fix the cause not try a bandage cure the symptoms ? if benefits, wage conditions are inadequate why not go the rather root ? Or do they not trust those in need to spend the $ wisely ?
Rent caps only work if there are enough homes already. Say, after a big state house building programme or when financial speculation incentives are structurally removed from the system.
I bought a piece of art in a NZLP auction. Can't remember what I paid for it, a print. But I got no favours for it.
I once donated, with permission from the artist, an art work for auction. It went for a good sum. I was given it by the artist who has since died, thereby immeasurably increasing its value. The painting was bought by a National party supporter who I know. I hope she is enjoying it, because she got no favours either apart from owning a fine painting by a top artist which is appreciating in value. Sometimes, just sometimes, there is nothing ulterior but a good deal all round. I lost a painting, another person got it, the NZLP got a good donation- all happy.
I bought a piece of art in a NZLP auction. Can't remember what I paid for it, a print. But I got no favours for it, except for seeing it every day.
I once donated, with permission from the artist, an art work for auction. It went for a good sum. I was given it by the artist who has since died, thereby immeasurably increasing its value. The painting was bought by a National party supporter who I know. I hope she is enjoying it, because she got no favours either apart from owning a fine painting by a top artist which is appreciating in value. Sometimes, just sometimes, there is nothing ulterior but a good deal all round. I lost a painting, another person got it, the NZLP got a good donation- all happy.
Can you point otherwise? To what personal benefit this man has achieved from buying an art work? You're saying that $10 grand buys influence? That's pretty cheap…….. in at least two ways.
You need at least $200 grand it seems for two MPs of superior quality.
Agree. And I have a similar proposition regarding private schools:
that private schools should be allowed to retain their 'special character' in curriculum, etc, but that in funding per student they should be strictly kept down to that of state schools.
'I won’t lie, the last two polls aren’t looking good for us. Last night’s poll marks the second in a row that indicate we are at risk of falling below the 5% threshold'
I actually wanted to know if the email was correct and that kiwiblog wasn't telling porkies, I'm well aware that NZFirst are well below the threshold and that the Greens are floundering (#labournomates) and its a beautiful thing to see
Well you will be pleased to know that the huge group of "undecided" means that your concern may well be misplaced. The government is also showing that they can still achieve a lot even with a party that is trying to position itself to appeal to National voters who may well be looking for another home. The mutual respect means that any of the three parties can advise that they will not support particular legislation; without that breaking the government. No small party has flourished from trying to work with National, who do not understand working with others; it was good that Bridges made his position clear. I am confident that the Green Party will achieve over 5%; I am however disappointed that the government did not accept the recommendation from the review to reduce the 5% threshold.
Why didn’t you actually ask the question that you actually wanted to know?
– I did
After that it was all moot wasn't it, Incognito was assuming I had ulterior motives for the question I asked whereas I actually asked the question I wanted an answer for
Your first attempt at a question @ 6 was vague, ambiguous, and pretty much unanswerable to anyone who had not read the post on KB or even for those who had read it. Your Q was followed by a link to divert traffic away to the sewer blog and quoted text that was self-evident.
Then, @ 6.1.1, you state that you actually wanted to know about the e-mail address, which you could have explained in the first place @ 6.
Diverting traffic to KB is generally not a good idea and with your personal political preferences, it was a logical assumption that this was your false pretence. Never mind, you would not have admitted it in any case.
Why ask if the e-mail address is legit if you have no interest whatsoever in sending them an e-mail?
Your diversion and wind-ups are time wasters and not “political and interesting”, IMO.
A rhetorical Q does not require an A but you seem unable to stop bleating.
So, here we are, answering your Q that you actually don’t give a toss about. Let’s just say that you have burnt quite a bit of credit with me for no gain whatsoever. Consider it throwing away money at a silent auction and leaving empty-handed.
The Green Party campaign director going out into print like that is a really clear public warning that there's a really good chance the Green Party is about to go the way of the Maori Party.
Even in a mediocre government run by inherited surpluses and a single person's charisma, the Green delivery has been the standout worst since 2017.
.
Latest UMR / CB / RR Polls were conducted 7-8 months out from the 2020 Election.
Based on results from the same Pollsters at the same point in the run-up to previous Elections going back to 1999 … & making a few crucial assumptions about differing electoral contexts (always a tricky business) … I'm still predicting that:
Consider NZF Poll support at the same point during their last 2 stints in Govt:
I'll use Colmar Brunton as an example:
2008
Colmar Brunton
April 2008 (same point out from Election): 1.5%
(Up 2.57 points on this at subsequent Election)
CB 4 Poll Average (Dec 2007-April 2008):: 1.9%
(Up 2.17 points on this at subsequent Election)
CB Average over previous 12 Months: 2.2%
(Up 1.87 points on this at subsequent Election)
2008 Election Result (Party Vote): 4.07%
1999
Colmar Brunton
April 1999 (same point out from Election): 2%
(Up 2.26 points at subsequent Election)
CB 4 Poll Average (Dec 1998-April 1999): 2.2%
(Up 2.06 points at subsequent Election)
CB Average over previous 12 Months: 2.2%
(Up 2.06 points at subsequent Election)
1999 Election Result (Party Vote):4.26%
2020
Colmar Brunton
Feb 2020 (same point out from Election): 3.3%
CB 4 Poll Average (July 2019 – Feb 2020): 3.8%
CB Average over previous 12 Months: 4.1%
2020 Election Result (Party Vote): looking very 5.5-6.0%
A similar comparison with UMR figures suggests something broadly similar, while TV3 Reid Research / CM stats would suggest NZF are heading a little lower (close to the 5% threshold).
So, the upshot of all of that – plus one or two assumptions about differing political / electoral contexts – plus a little bit of magic – leads me inexorably towards a 2020 NZF Party Vote of 5.7% …
Thats cool but dont think Bridges ruling out Winnie will have an impact on his right leaning voters, they won't be happy knowing a vote for Winnie is a vote for Labour and all that
Oppo Leader John Key also ruled out forming a coalition or entering any kind of support arrangement with NZ First in the run-up to the 2008 Election …
… and yet, as you can see, NZF still ended 2.6 points higher (at the 2008 Election) than they were polling in the Colmar Brunton 7 months out (ie the same point we're at currently).
Thanks for that, swordfish. Do you have similar information for NZF for the Colmar Brunton polls for 2011, 2014 and 2017? I would be interested to see whether the same trends happened then between the polls and election results – but only if you have the info readily available.
I think it’s most useful / appropriate to focus on NZF’s two stints in Govt (though, of course, they were ailing third term administrations = so no perfect comparisons).
Thanks for the extra information, swordfish. Really appreciate it.
I agree that it is probably "most useful / appropriate to focus on NZF’s two stints in Govt (though, of course, they were ailing third term administrations = so no perfect comparisons)". However, it is also interesting to see that the trends appear to have continued for the 2011 and 2014 elections. Re the 2017 election, the opposite downward trend in actual result is not surprising given the high polling and the extraordinary events that took place pre-election.
I have also tracked down your various predictions etc in Oct and Aug 2019 here on TS and looking at the whole lot together is now on my To Do list but have a few other priorities to be cleared before that can happen. Thanks again.
Not trying to be funny but don't the Greens have a thing about equal gender representation and currently they 8 MPs but only two males…so a split of 75-25
Mind you I suppose he could be sacked and still stay on
I haven't been back and checked the email, but that quote matches my memory of it. However, the email was a request for donations, which always come with a message about how the county is doomed if you don't bung the party some dosh right away. This one was no different in that respect, and DPF's post is just the usual "fomenting happy mischief" in the interests of the National Party.
Oh, for sure. I tend towards the view that the country would quite literally be doomed if the Greens fall below 5%, so I immediately bunged the party some dosh as requested. I don't think many in Labour share that opinion about the value of the Greens, though.
I suspect the Greens have more support in Labour than you imagine – quite a few people do "christmas tree" voting (Labour and Green), and the smart way would be to electorate Labour and party vote Green, as they're the ones closest to the threshold.
NZ1, on the other hand, I reckon most Labour and Greens could take or leave. Supergold card good, immigration, guns, fossil fuel policies bad lol.
I hope you're right that I'm wrong(!) about Labour in this respect.
… quite a few people do "christmas tree" voting (Labour and Green)...
Me too. Apologies to whoever the Green candidate in my electorate will be, but I probably won't even learn your name – keeping the Labour electorate MP as this electorate's MP will be my priority.
Yep. The email to members/supporters/donor is just normal fundraising technique. I get these all the time from Labour saying how hard the fight is going to be and how every little bit helps. Will you chip in?
Farrar may as well have done a post on each Party's election year email correspondence with their supporters but he chose to highlight the Greens' email because that is the Party he is most afraid of this week.
I like it! I mean my one hope for the election was to see Winnie gone, didn't care who got into power as long as Winnie was gone but to see the Greens floundering at this stage in the cycle is just the cherry on the top.
Lets face it Winnies going to be going at the Greens big time from now until the election to get back into parliament so its going to be a rough ride for them
Maybe if they get a shellacking in the election it might force them to think of a better way, a way to be able to work with all parties for the sake of the environment…
Remind me again why the 5% threshold is a Good Thing? Remind me again why doing deals with electorate seats because of the MMP rule giving parties with electorate seat/s a % of the seats commensurate with their party vote , but otherwise restricting minor parties to a 5% threshold?
So far people on this blog have advocated for special deals for three parties, Greens, ACT and NZF. I bet others would welcome TOP with 2.4% on the 2017 vote, the Conservatives etc.
I am sure that a Green/NZF % would outweigh a ACT, Conservative, TOP, Maori league.
It might even encourage the full impact of MMP by inducing the National Party to shrug off its factions and devolve into at least two parties similar to the ones it coalesced from in the Thirties.
Well I'd like MMP changed (no I don't want FPP), last election the largest party has nothing to do with government and to me thats wrong because that means 44% of the voters are ignored.
This election it looks like Labour will be a one term govt and as much as I'll enjoy the wailing and gnashing of teeth of the left (and I will) it'll still be a really large percentage of voters that're now ignored.
Is MMP the best electoral system, can it be improved? If the threshold can be lowered then what other changes can be made to make the system fairer?
If the polls you are citing are correct, then it would easily be possible that the party/coalition with a higher percentage of the vote would goive way to one party with a buy-in deal in Epsom with a lower vote.
FFP has dealt that situation in NZ before. One reason why we went to MMP. Now the intricacies of MMP could deliver the very same result if the Greens and NZF were to fall below the 5% threshold without buy-in deals in Nelson, Auckland Central, Northland as have been suggested.
No wonder that you predict even four seats for ACT
A large proportion of the Epsom electorate are very well informed (and another part is not, when you look at the number of votes for the other candidates!). However, in other electorates there may be too many “low info” voters to pull it off so this makes these a risky proposition. There’s something counter-intuitive or counter-instinctive to vote for the enemy to win the war and obviously many can’t bring themselves to doing it.
“He’s really well liked up there”. Not by anyone I know. And the Labour and Green candidates got more votes than he did last time round so many locals clearly think it’s time for him to go.
He then won the Nelson electorate in 1996 which hes held ever since, a couple of points to note is that his lowest voting turnout was 2017 when he only got 40% of the vote plus prior to Nick Smith Labour had held that seat since 1957
So you and your friends may not like him but enough people certainly do
Reading comprehension does not seem to be your strong point. You have not rebutted Prickles’ comment at all. Nick Smith’s share of the vote went down by 12.13% and the combined vote of the Labour and Green’s candidates was higher than Nick’s.
Only 40.69% of the Nelson voters voted for him, and 53.97% for Labour+Greens but they were ignored. This wrong should be corrected in September, don’t you agree?
And Nick Smith last gained in % support in 2008. Going down ever since (although one was almost level). Wonder if it's a demographic change in the electorate.
"Only 40.69% of the Nelson voters voted for him, and 53.97% for Labour+Greens but they were ignored. This wrong should be corrected in September, don’t you agree?"
I agree, ignoring that many votes is not good at all.
Maybe a power sharing model oer something could be instigated or maybe STV could give a clearer decision.
From what I can gather from speaking to people across the political spectrum here at the top of the South (not just my friends and family – some of whom, incidentally, are blue to the depths of their souls – family that is, not friends so much) even the blue ones think that nick smith has passed his use-by date. Of course when he is at the market he surrounds himself with sycophants. He’s not so keen in taking the time to speak to anyone with a different perspective on what is important. He does, however, deign to speak to anyone slightly red or green who may enable him to get his photo in the local paper. Many locals are embarrassed to have him “representing” us. The only person nick smith represents is nick smith.
Just a asde, PR, when I got a reverse mirror view of my back, I was astonished to see how old age had brought on hairiness, almost as much as the chest. Have you checked your own back lately? I suspect that you may have already grown those hairs you offer on condition. Or they will soon appear anyway. You may then consider yourself as paying a debt.
According to the simplistic belief about democracy, up to 49% of the voters are ‘ignored’ at any given time (and sometimes more). In your thinking, it is wrong to ignore 44.4% of the voters but is it ok to then ignore 36.9% of the voters?
You sound like a semi-utilitarian.
Is MMP the best electoral system, can it be improved? If the threshold can be lowered then what other changes can be made to make the system fairer?
"This election it looks like Labour will be a one term govt and as much as I'll enjoy the wailing and gnashing of teeth of the left (and I will) it'll still be a really large percentage of voters that're now ignored."
I don't want a really large percentage of voters ignored
I don’t want a really large percentage of voters ignored
MMP is a step in the right direction but not a magic bullet. The FPP mentality is still strong, partly because it underpins the status quo.
Contrary to common belief, irrespective of who’s in Government, nobody is more or less ignored and status quo prevails, by and large. This is good and bad because there are definitely members of (our own as well as the global) society who are literally on the cliff’s edge or are falling between the cracks. Nobody seems to give a rat’s arse because they all are too busy looking at and appeasing the ‘majority’ or the ‘centre’.
This next election is basically a FPP election. Labour (maybe the Greens sneak in) v National (with a couple of Act seats), NZ (the media?) just doesn't seem to "get" MMP
I mean I'm legit in wanting to see National and the Greens compromise to work together or Labour and Act or even National and Labour (they have more in common than differences)
I just think that no party has all the answers, National need some prompting from the left, the Greens need some conservatives to smooth out the edges etc etc
I believe there is more cooperation and collaboration going on than the SMS make us believe. It is in the MSM’s interest to magnify differences and contrast these as insurmountable fault lines. The public seems to swallow this without choking. Interestingly, and dare I say it, many political blogs and their commentariats seem to be even worse …
Your statement pretty much defines you as a idiot politically.
I’d say that the probability of NZF getting back in approaches certainty – simply because they are small targeting their audience. Of course that is why their audience doesn’t get picked up in polling. Cynical buggers those NZF voters – they don’t talk to pollsters and never really have. The small audience is course why the Nats are gunning for them again – but using the same tactic and pretext as last time. FFS how stupid are those impotent dildos?
And what rough edges? Problem with the greens is that politically they don’t have them. It makes it hard for them to develop a ‘voice’. And BTW: conservationist parties of the type you’re wanting basically don’t exist politically. Offhand I can think of about 8 in my lifetime. They lose their deposits.
The important difference between National and Labour is that Labour thinks longer term and is more fiscally prudent on a long term basis. No point in trying to do what National does of developing a beneficiary bashing strategy as National does if all that means is that the opportunities are closed off for their kids. Cutting taxes for Labour is what you do AFTER you manage to grow the whole economy rather than just giving to their donors to squander. etc..
In my opinion National are short-term accountants who can’t think past their own wallets and their prejudices, and who hate to invest in a future. They are inherently economic wastrals because they selfishly don’t consider the whole of our future together.
In other words, if Labour headed down your proposed path, then I’d have a great deal of satisfaction in raising a revolution. It is the reason why Shearer was a darling of the right and something that a lot of us helped kick out.
Well as the self-proclaimed worlds greatest sy-sop I bow to your greater knowledge in all things political
[lprent: self-proclaimed worlds greatest sy-sop. That is an outright lie. Banned until October 2021 – unless you make a public abject apology or find evidence that I actually said or wrote that phrase.
From my memory this was just some dumbarse meme made up by one of the fools from kiwiblog. And you have had similar bans for this before. ]
impotent dildos – they vibrate all over the place saying that they have a purpose and a reason for existence, but never actually even try to do something about achieving it. Instead other people waste far too much time on them.
I don't want a really large percentage of voters ignored
Oh, it's worse than that. The binning of their votes effectively redistributes their vote share to parties they didn't vote for. That's the whole basis of National trying to drive NZF below the threshold, eg suppose a hypothetical example of 100 votes, of which National gets 46 and 10 votes are wasted. National goes from having 46 out of 100 votes to 46 out of 90, so its vote share goes from 46% to 52% and a ruling majority. That's the unspoken reason for National and Labour setting the threshold so high in the first place.
– 5% helps stop loony extremists get in to Parliament. Doesn't stop them, but it helps.
– doing deals is completely part of the cooperative nature of MMP
– bringing in one or two MPs with deals can however add a bit of spice to a government, and even one or two good big concepts. Painful as it was, we wouldn't have merged Auckland without it.
– National MPs know which way their bread is buttered. There's only the Alliance to look to on that lesson. They have a really good chance at winning this year – unusually after only one term and new leadership.
1. The Commission unanimously recommended the adoption of mixed member proportional, with a threshold of 4% and that a referendum be held before or at the 1987 election. [my italics]
Interesting five recommendations that I had forgotten about.
The Commission unanimously recommended the adoption of mixed member proportional, with a threshold of 4% and that a referendum be held before or at the 1987 election.
They also recommended that the Māori seats be abolished, with Māori parties instead receiving representation if they did not pass the threshold.
That the number of MPs raise to 120 (although they considered 140 would be ideal, they realised that it would receive too much public backlash).
The term of Parliament be raised to four years.
The Commission recommended that citizens initiated referendumsnot be implemented. However, they were in 1993.
In essence, no recommendations were adopted since the only one adopted was in itself a compromise position over MP numbers.
If the Greens and NZF were below 5% as some pundits predict for September 2020 was my starting point. Funnily enough, when some political questionnaire came out in 2017, I was closest to TOP, they said. I was surprised at that; so definitely not loony!
I’m not frightened by the NZF left faction, and the Greens when not reduced to their authoritarian rump are also fine with me as partners.
It's quite an extremist conformity view that you have to have at least 1 in 20 of your fellow citizens to share a similar set of beliefs in order to not be labelled a loony extremist.
Me, I'd be happier holding off labeling someone a loony extremist until those sharing their set of beliefs falls below 1 in 120 of the population.
On the money, IFL. The Nat voting centre-right are disciplined enough to recognise that they have to accommodate their factions within the party. That's why there is a bit of a move to the right in their pronouncements, and candidate selection, to shore up their support there.
Labour supported merging Auckland’s councils, and the Nats led most of the work on it with Rodney as a convenient figleaf. Would have happened without his party.
Without a convenient yellow figleaf they would have had to acknowledge more of the extreme elements as their own party’s agenda. Much like charter schools, etc. Guess that may have been unpalatable enough to discard. As it was, they did not go through with subsequently privatising Watercare.
If "looney extremists" are what some voters want why shouldn't they get into parliament. NZ is deemed to be a democracy when all is said and done. Better to have a zero threshold and let the chips fall where they may. The high 5% threshold benefits only the status quo.
Today's "looney extremist " party may well be tomorrow's majority party.
You are demonstrating an attitude that, I am sorry to say, is closer to a National Party ethos than that of The Green Party, Labour or even NZ First. National are careful about what they say in public, but their policies and decisions when in government have demonstrated they are prepared to write off a large segment of our population. Labour and the Green Party have demonstrated that they are about all New Zealanders – they want thriving businesses to create the equal opportunities that National only pays lip service to. NZ First has positioned itself as being between National and other parties – the 'keep them honest'" mantra that worked well for "Captain Sensible". All three however are looking to govern for all New Zealanders. If we truly believe in equal opportunity, respect for others, then we must accept that our personal views will not be held by all. To promote a system for our elections that seeks to make it hard for new parties to start, or to exclude smaller parties due to an arbitrary level of votes that they have to achieve, is in my view destructively elitist. Your attitude towards NZ First is disrespectful to a large number of New Zealanders , and essentially bordering on being anti-democratic. I appreciate that many see politics as if it is a card game – it has meaning for most New Zealanders that is beyond that level; do not demean whatever party you support by effectively saying that some people matter more than others.
Yeah Nelsons probably the best option, once he retires that is. I've been up to Nelson at Christmas time the last few years and Nick Smith just seems really popular (this was at the Nelson market to be fair) so many people at his tent and hardly ayone else at the others
I'd be very surprised if the PM goes for any deal anywhere though.
I don’t think so either but I think it is largely irrelevant for two reasons:
One, will the electorate in question actually understand the ‘hint’, ‘suggestion’, ‘guidance’, or ‘instruction’ to vote for their non-preferred candidate to change the chances (possible outcome) of a certain coalition deal in Wellington?
Two, voters are free to vote in the way they see fit and nobody, not even the PM, can make them vote in another way, thankfully.
Epsom seems to be the only electorate so far that has shown enough political nous to pull it off successfully. Barry Coates and David Parker had 9,852 votes combined, which could have been used to try thwarting the National/ACT deal.
Dunno about Saunders, but he certainly wouldn't want to go against Sanders. Trump fears Bernie almost as much as the corrupt and delusional DNC fears him.
Trump knows, just as well as you and everyone else knows, that in every metric, Bernie Sanders outperformed Trump in 2016. The DNC installed the unlikeable and unelectable Clinton instead.
Incorrect. Trump wants to against a socialist that honeymooned in Russia, supported the Sandinistas, recently had a heart attack, millionaire that owns three homes (but rich people are bad), wants to take away peoples healthcare that they like and replace with a health care system that he doesn't know how much will cost or how to implement it
Trump would have had problems with Gabbard but the DNC took care of that, the only candidate Trump would like to go against more would be Warren
– What do you think Trumps ads are going to be, add in Bernie praising Castro, thinking bread lines are a good thing, potentially Russia interference (ironic really), Trumps problem is going to be what not to attack Bernie on
Whereas you support the Contra terror squads illegally armed and supported by the United States?
– Um what?
He's a lot fitter than Trump.
– You and I both don't know that but what we do know is Bernie had a heart attack on the campaign trail and there hasn't been any suggestion of Trump not being physically up to the job
Don't think he said all rich people are bad. His critique is more analytical and intelligent than your portrayal of it.
No thats true, he just doesn't think billionaires should exist which is interesting given that of the 10 richest people in the USA most seem to be democrats (or at least vote that way)
There hasn't been any reasonable suggestion he physically isn't calpable of being up to the job and being that the media breathlessly report and each and everything little he thing he does and then blow it out of proportion doesn't that strike you as telling
I mean it'd be different if he had a heart attack or something…
well, that and the fact the his medical report said he was the same height as Obama, for all we know the fucker could be dead and they're pulling a Weekend at Bernie's.
The "socialist/communist" attack line is dead in the water. I mean, wasn't Obama a communist too? It's been robbed of any impact by simple over use.
Anyway.
Assuming no fuckery bringing about a brokered convention, and hopefully no assassination ( And yes, I think that has to remain on the table of possibilities given the record of entrenched liberal power around the world…what…you reckon they'll only ever "off" brown skinned dudes?!), Trump will lose very heavily to Sanders for the simple reason he cannot tack to the left of Sanders with his rhetoric as he did with Clinton.
Trump will lose very heavily to Sanders for the simple reason he cannot tack to the left of Sanders with his rhetoric as he did with Clinton.
Yes I agree. The admittedly small sample of Trump voters I have talked with, all without exception were well aware of his shortcomings as a human being. While Trump does have his hard core supporters, and the electorate is very polarised at present, I still don't think they're enough on their own.
You are correct, while the DNC will bank on Sanders losing to Trump, I suspect the US electorate may well grievously disappoint them.
Yes the economy is the strong play at the moment. There are many complex reasons for this and almost none of them to do with Trump. On the other hand he does get credit for being the first US President to confront the CCP on the economic front.
Plus the endless Democrat Russiagate delusions, the weak Ukrainian impeachment debacle, and now the threat of COVID19 have only strengthened his hand.
So yes he does have some real strengths. But most Americans in their heart of hearts would wish for a better person in the White House.
Trump would have had problems with Gabbard but the DNC took care of that,
I'm inclined to agree. In my view the DNC are running this election as a losing proposition, with the explicit intention of using it to knock out elements of the party they don't like. The last thing they want is someone they cannot control like Sanders, Yang or Gabbard actually winning.
It's not unusual for Tucker to hit the nail on the head. It basically depends on the topic. On war, he's on point. On the bullshittery of liberal elites, he's on point. Immigration and other stuff…not so much.
Anyway. I'm not really awaiting responses from the liberal twats who bought into the Steele Dossier, the Russia Hoax and the Mueller as white knight bullshit – like, how they going to square this nonsense that's coming from the intelligence community now that both Trump and Sanders are Putin puppets?! 🙂
The obvious question that peeps who bought the kompromat line is this…
If Russian intelligence services had dirt on Trump, then how much more dirt do you think lies in the hands of the FBI and CIA?
I don't think there's a soul out there who would claim Trump is anything but a corrupt and venal expression of humanity…but who is more likely to have the ability to exercise leverage over him?
As a possible pointer, we might look to his foreign policy, how that stacks up against the rhetoric he spouted when running for office, and whether it favours Russian interests or US Intelligence Community interests.
Arming fascists in Ukraine. Attempting a coup in Venezuela. Killing the German/Russian pipeline deal. Arming head-choppers in Syria. Pulling out of Russia/US arms treaties. And etc.
Maybe the FBI and CIA have a problem with the concept of blackmailing potus, for some reason.
And try listing the way he fucked up NATO and handed over bases to Russian soldiers in Syria, and fucked the Kurds.
But rather than having this debate a fucking cheeto again, I've not seen anyone say Sanders is a Russian tool. Sure, I've seen suggestions that Russia fucking with the elections again is helping Sanders, but nothing in the vague ballpark of them having leverage over him.
The Steele Dossier was as shit smeared toilet paper. I said that at the time.
Maddow on MSNBC and all the other Russia Hoax pundits notwithstanding…plus the soggy pissed on mess that was the Mueller Report (you geddit?) and the bullshit impeachment that sought to resurrect elements of failed propaganda…it’s all only served to highlight the shit of both that dossier and subsequent ramblings and rantings.
Which is all irrelevant to your "That the supposed shit on Trump, is it?".
Which actually makes sense – I really can't understand how you regard the Mueller Report as a "soggy mess" when half a dozen people got sent to prison because of it. But if you're not bothering to refresh your memory or keep track of the news, then your sloganeering makes more sense. They're just bardic phrases, rather than accurate descriptions.
The obvious question that peeps who bought the kompromat line is this…
If Russian intelligence services had dirt on Trump, then how much more dirt do you think lies in the hands of the FBI and CIA?
The Russian strategy may be even more complex then thought due to asymmetric behaviour. such as Surkov.
“It was the first non-linear war,” writes Surkov in a new short story, “Without Sky,” published under his pseudonym and set in a dystopian future after the “fifth world war”:
In the primitive wars of the 19th and 20th centuries it was common for just two sides to fight. Two countries. Two groups of allies. Now four coalitions collided. Not two against two, or three against one. No. All against all.
The explanation may be simpler in this sense; in a world where all nations are connected physically, socially and economically …. it is inevitable they will also influence each other politically.
Schadenfreude bath time. He (or his buddies) also doctored the parties online presence (FB) so detractors were blocked. Was not interested in folk asking hard questions, or having a conversation. Only co-opting others media for smearing Greenpeace & the Green Party with. And did I mention he’s got a problem with his hands…
The Yamal Peninsula contains some of the biggest known reserves of natural gas on the planet. This remote peninsula in the Russian Arctic extends for 700 kilometres into the Kara Sea, and now several pipelines, offshore gas fields, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals have made it their home. Those tens of millions of cubic metres of natural gas have attracted Russia's state-owned gas companies and several international investors; in 2008, Gazprom announced its Yamal Project, to unlock the region's hydrocarbons on a vast scale.
Yamal is also home to 15,000 people, 10,000 of whom are Nenets reindeer herders
Indigenous rights activists have also raised concerns about what this large-scale energy extraction could mean for the Nenets and other indigenous peoples of Russia's far north. Dmitry Berezhkov is a member of the Itelmen people from the Kamchatka Peninsula and the former vice-president of the Russian Association of Indigenous Peoples of the North (RAIPON), a Moscow-based NGO. Berezhkov says that he was pressured by the Russian security services in the capital into framing RAIPON as a threat to the state.
[…]
I spoke to Berezhkov about the consequences of natural gas exploitation for indigenous people in Russia's north. The interview has been edited for length and clarity.
Maxim Edwards: What does the future hold for the indigenous peoples of the Yamal Peninsula?
Dmitry Berezhkov: More gas fields are being developed, further to the north and east of the peninsula and towards the other side of the gulf of the River Ob. The gas pipeline network is like an octopus; it spreads across the land. And for every pipeline and for every road, they take another piece of land away from reindeer herders. For now, reindeer herders try to use the rest of the land, but that means their herds may become smaller, and they are now starting to compete with each other for pastures. The problem is developing gradually, it gets a little worse every year.It's like a game of chess, they build one pipeline, then the herds move elsewhere.The growing infrastructure means that reindeer herders have to find new areas to graze, and if there are none, they have to put pressure on the same areas with even more reindeer. For example, the herds eat reindeer moss (Ru: Ягель), and the increased competition means that less of it is left. And less food for reindeer could mean smaller herds, and slaughtering animals which can't be fed. Either the government will sponsor a programme to kill reindeer, or the flocks will die out because of starvation. I don't know. But I think that over the next one or two decades, a huge number of reindeer will die in the Yamal. More indigenous people will settle in the villages, which can lead to social diseases, alcoholism, and other things like that. They will lose their language and traditional livelihood. I think that's the future.
Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: My top six things to note around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the week to July 27 were:1. The Minister for Ford Rangers strikes againTransport Minister Simeon Brown was again the busiest of the Cabinet ministers this week, announcing an ...
You got a fast carAnd I want a ticket to anywhereMaybe we make a dealMaybe together we can get somewhereAny place is betterYesterday’s newsletter, Trust In Me, on the report of abuse in state care, and by religious organisations, between 1950 and 2019, coupled with the hypocrisy of Christopher Luxon ...
New Zealand is again having to reconcile conflicting pressures from its military and its trade interests. Should we join Pillar Two of AUKUS and risk compromising our markets in China? For a century after New Zealand was founded in 1840, its external security arrangements and external economics arrangements were aligned. ...
The ‘50 Shades of Green’ farmers’ protest in 2019 was heavy on climate change denial, but five years on, scepticism and criticism about the idea that pine forests can save us is growing across the board. File photo: Lynn GrievesonTL;DR: Here’s the top six news items of note in climate ...
This morning the sky was bright.The birds, in their usual joyous bliss. Nature doesn’t seem to feel the heat of what might angst humans.Their calls are clear and beautiful.Just some random thoughts:MāoriPaul Goldsmith has announced his government will roll back the judiciary’s rulings on Māori Customary Marine Title, which recognises ...
In 2003, the Court of Appeal delivered its decision in Ngati Apa v Attorney-General, ruling that Māori customary title over the foreshore and seabed had not been universally extinguished, and that the Māori Land Court could determine claims and confirm title if the facts supported it. This kicked off the ...
Earlier this week at Parliament, Labour leader Chris Hipkins was applauded for saying that the response to the final report of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in Care had to be “bigger than politics.” True, but the fine words, apologies and “we hear you” messages will soon ring ...
TL;DR: In news breaking this morning:The Ministry of Education is cutting $2 billion from its school building programme so the National-ACT-NZ First Coalition Government has enough money to deliver tax cuts; The Government has quietly lowered its child poverty reduction targets to make them easier to achieve;Te Whatu Ora-Health NZ’s ...
Kia ora. These are some stories that caught our eye this week – as always, feel free to share yours in the comments. Our header image this week (via Eke Panuku) shows the planned upgrade for the Karanga Plaza Tidal Swimming Steps. The week in Greater Auckland On ...
1. What's not to love about the way the Harris campaign is turning things around?a. Nothingb. Love all of itc. God what a reliefd. Not that it will be by any means easye. All of the above 2. Documents released by the Ministry of Health show Associate Health Minister Casey ...
Trust in me in all you doHave the faith I have in youLove will see us through, if only you trust in meWhy don't you, you trust me?In a week that saw the release of the 3,000 page Abuse in Care report Christopher Luxon was being asked about Boot Camps. ...
TL;DR: The podcast above of the weekly ‘hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers last night features co-hosts and talking about the Royal Commission Inquiry into Abuse in Carereport released this week, and with:The Kākā’s climate correspondent on a UN push to not recognise carbon offset markets and ...
TL;DR: As of 6:00 am on Friday, July 26, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:Transport: Simeon Brown announced$802.9 million in funding for 18 new trains on the Wairarapa and Manawatū rail lines, which ...
The northern expressway extension from Warkworth to Whangarei is likely to require radical changes to legislation if it is going to be built within the foreseeable future. The Government’s powers to purchase land, the planning process and current restrictions on road tolling are all going to need to be changed ...
Text within this block will maintain its original spacing when publishedFirst they came for the doctors But I was confused by the numbers and costs So I didn't speak up Then they came for our police and nurses And I didn't think we could afford those costs anyway So I ...
Photo by Joshua J. Cotten on UnsplashWe’re back again after our mid-winter break. We’re still with the ‘new’ day of the week (Thursday rather than Friday) when we have our ‘hoon’ webinar with paying subscribers to The Kākā for an hour at 5 pm.Jump on this link on YouTube Livestream ...
Notes: This is a free article. Abuse in Care themes are mentioned. Video is at the bottom.BackgroundYesterday’s report into Abuse in Care revealed that at least 1 in 3 of all who went through state and faith based care were abused - often horrifically. At least, because not all survivors ...
Luxon speaks in Parliament yesterday about the Abuse in Care report. Photo: Hagen Hopkins/Getty ImagesTL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy today are:PM Christopher Luxon said yesterday in tabling the Abuse in Carereport in Parliament he wanted to ‘do the ...
About a decade ago I worked with a bloke called Steve. He was the grizzled veteran coder, a few years older than me, who knew where the bodies were buried - code wise. Despite his best efforts to be approachable and friendly he could be kind of gruff, through to ...
Some of the recent announcements from the government have reminded us of posts we’ve written in the past. Here’s one from early 2020. There were plenty of reactions to the government’s infrastructure announcement a few weeks ago which saw them fund a bunch of big roading projects. One of ...
TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 7:00 am on Thursday, July 25 are:News: Why Electric Kiwi is closing to new customers - and why it matters RNZ’s Susan EdmundsScoop: Government drops ...
Hi,I felt a small wet tongue snaking through one of the holes in my Crocs. It explored my big toe, darting down one side, then the other. “He’s looking for some toe cheese,” said the woman next to me, words that still haunt me to this day.Growing up in New ...
Yesterday I happily quoted the Prime Minister without fact-checking him and sure enough, it turns out his numbers were all to hell. It’s not four kg of Royal Commission report, it’s fourteen.My friend and one-time colleague-in-comms Hazel Phillips gently alerted me to my error almost as soon as I’d hit ...
TL;DR: As of 6:00 am on Thursday, July 25, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day were:The Abuse in Care Royal Commission of Inquirypublished its final report yesterday.PM Christopher Luxon and The Minister responsible for ...
The Official Information Act has always been a battle between requesters seeking information, and governments seeking to control it. Information is power, so Ministers and government agencies want to manage what is released and when, for their own convenience, and legality and democracy be damned. Their most recent tactic for ...
TL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy today are:Transport and Energy Minister Simeon Brown is accelerating plans to spend at least $10 billion through Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) to extend State Highway One as a four-lane ‘Expressway’ from Warkworth to Whangarei ...
I live my life (woo-ooh-ooh)With no control in my destinyYea-yeah, yea-yeah (woo-ooh-ooh)I can bleed when I want to bleedSo come on, come on (woo-ooh-ooh)You can bleed when you want to bleedYea-yeah, come on (woo-ooh-ooh)Everybody bleed when they want to bleedCome on and bleedGovernments face tough challenges. Selling unpopular decisions to ...
Please note:To skip directly to the- parliamentary footage in the video, scroll to 1:21 To skip to audio please click on the headphone iconon the left hand side of the screenThis video / audio section is under development. ...
Given the crackdown on wasteful government spending, it behooves me to point to a high profile example of spending by the Luxon government that looks like a big, fat waste of time and money. I’m talking about the deployment of NZDF personnel to support the US-led coalition in the Red ...
TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 7:40 am on Wednesday, July 24 are:Deep Dive: Chipping away at the housing crisis, including my comments RNZ/Newsroom’s The DetailNews: Government softens on asset sales, ...
As I reported about the city centre, Auckland’s rail network is also going through a difficult and disruptive period which is rapidly approaching a culmination, this will result in a significant upgrade to the whole network. Hallelujah. Also like the city centre this is an upgrade predicated on the City ...
Today, a 4 kilogram report will be delivered to Parliament. We know this is what the report of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in State and Faith-based Care weighs, because our Prime Minister told us so.Some reporter had blindsided him by asking a question about something done by ...
TL;DR: As of 7:00 am on Wednesday, July 24, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:Beehive:Transport Minister Simeon Brownannounced plans to use PPPs to fund, build and run a four-lane expressway between Auckland ...
NewstalkZB host Mike Hosking, who can usually be relied on to give Prime Minister Christopher Luxon an easy run, did not do so yesterday when he interviewed him about the HealthNZ deficit. Luxon is trying to use a deficit reported last year by HealthNZ as yet another example of the ...
Back in January a StatsNZ employee gave a speech at Rātana on behalf of tangata whenua in which he insulted and criticised the government. The speech clearly violated the principle of a neutral public service, and StatsNZ started an investigation. Part of that was getting an external consultant to examine ...
Renting for life: Shared ownership initiatives are unlikely to slow the slide in home ownership by much. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy today are:A Deloittereport for Westpac has projected Aotearoa’s home-ownership rate will ...
You're broken down and tiredOf living life on a merry go roundAnd you can't find the fighterBut I see it in you so we gonna walk it outAnd move mountainsWe gonna walk it outAnd move mountainsAnd I'll rise upI'll rise like the dayI'll rise upI'll rise unafraidI'll rise upAnd I'll ...
There’s been a change in Myers Park. Down the steps from St. Kevin’s Arcade, past the grassy slopes, the children’s playground, the benches and that goat statue, there has been a transformation. The underpass for Mayoral Drive has gone from a barren, grey, concrete tunnel, to a place that thrums ...
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections Global society may have finally slammed on the brakes for climate-warming pollution released by human fossil fuel combustion. According to the Carbon Monitor Project, the total global climate pollution released between February and May 2024 declined slightly from the amount released during the same ...
TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 7:00 am on Tuesday, July 23 are:Deep Dive: Penlink: where tolling rhetoric meets reality BusinessDesk-$$$’sOliver LewisScoop:Te Pūkenga plans for regional polytechs leak out ...
TL;DR: As of 6:00 am on Tuesday, July 23, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:Health: Shane Reti announcedthe Board of Te Whatu Ora-Health New Zealand was being replaced with Commissioner Lester Levy ...
Health NZ warned the Government at the end of March that it was running over Budget. But the reasons it gave were very different to those offered by the Prime Minister yesterday. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon blamed the “botched merger” of the 20 District Health Boards (DHBs) to create Health ...
Long ReadKey Summary: Although National increased the health budget by $1.4 billion in May, they used an old funding model to project health system costs, and never bothered to update their pre-election numbers. They were told during the Health Select Committees earlier in the year their budget amount was deficient, ...
As a momentous, historic weekend in US politics unfolded, analysts and commentators grasped for precedents and comparisons to help explain the significance and power of the choice Joe Biden had made. The 46th president had swept the Democratic party’s primaries but just over 100 days from the election had chosen ...
TL;DR: I’m casting around for new ideas and ways of thinking about Aotearoa’s political economy to find a few solutions to our cascading and self-reinforcing housing, poverty and climate crises.Associate Professor runs an online masters degree in the economics of sustainability at Torrens University in Australia and is organising ...
The Finance and Expenditure Committee has reported back on National's Local Government (Water Services Preliminary Arrangements) Bill. The bill sets up water for privatisation, and was introduced under urgency, then rammed through select committee with no time even for local councils to make a proper submission. Naturally, national's select committee ...
Some years ago, I bought a book at Dunedin’s Regent Booksale for $1.50. As one does. Vandrad the Viking (1898), by J. Storer Clouston, is an obscure book these days – I cannot find a proper online review – but soon it was sitting on my shelf, gathering dust alongside ...
History is not on the side of the centre-left, when Democratic presidents fall behind in the polls and choose not to run for re-election. On both previous occasions in the past 75 years (Harry Truman in 1952, Lyndon Johnson in 1968) the Democrats proceeded to then lose the White House ...
This is a free articleCoverageThis morning, US President Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from the Presidential race. And that is genuinely newsworthy. Thanks for your service, President Biden, and all the best to you and yours.However, the media in New Zealand, particularly the 1News nightly bulletin, has been breathlessly covering ...
A homeless person’s camp beside a blocked-off slipped damage walkway in Freeman’s Bay: we are chasing our tail on our worsening and inter-related housing, poverty and climate crises. Photo: Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy ...
What has happened to it all?Crazy, some'd sayWhere is the life that I recognise?(Gone away)But I won't cry for yesterdayThere's an ordinary worldSomehow I have to findAnd as I try to make my wayTo the ordinary worldYesterday morning began as many others - what to write about today? I began ...
TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 7:00 am on Monday, July 22 are:Today’s Must Read: Father and son live in a tent, and have done for four years, in a million ...
TL;DR: As of 7:00 am on Monday, July 22, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:US President Joe Biden announced via X this morning he would not stand for a second term.Multinational professional services firm ...
A listing of 32 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, July 14, 2024 thru Sat, July 20, 2024. Story of the week As reflected by preponderance of coverage, our Story of the Week is Project 2025. Until now traveling ...
This weekend, a friend pointed out someone who said they’d like to read my posts, but didn’t want to pay. And my first reaction was sympathy.I’ve already told folks that if they can’t comfortably subscribe, and would like to read, I’d be happy to offer free subscriptions. I don’t want ...
National: The Party of ‘Law and Order’ IntroductionThis weekend, the Government formally kicked off one of their flagship policy programs: a military style boot camp that New Zealand has experimented with over the past 50 years. Cartoon credit: Guy BodyIt’s very popular with the National Party’s Law and Orderimage, ...
Day one of the solo leg of my long journey home begins with my favourite sound: footfalls in an empty street. 5.00 am and it’s already light and already too warm, almost.If I can make the train that leaves Budapest later this hour I could be in Belgrade by nightfall; ...
Do you remember Y2K, the threat that hung over humanity in the closing days of the twentieth century? Horror scenarios of planes falling from the sky, electronic payments failing and ATMs refusing to dispense cash. As for your VCR following instructions and recording your favourite show - forget about it.All ...
Climate Change Minister Simon Watts being questioned by The Kākā’s Bernard Hickey.TL;DR: My top six things to note around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the week to July 20 were:1. A strategy that fails Zero Carbon Act & Paris targetsThe National-ACT-NZ First Coalition Government finally unveiled ...
Summary:As New Zealand loses at least 12 leaders in the public service space of health, climate, and pharmaceuticals, this month alone, directly in response to the Government’s policies and budget choices, what lies ahead may be darker than it appears. Tui examines some of those departures and draws a long ...
The Minister of Housing’s ambition is to reduce markedly the ratio of house prices to household incomes. If his strategy works it would transform the housing market, dramatically changing the prospects of housing as an investment.Leaving aside the Minister’s metaphor of ‘flooding the market’ I do not see how the ...
As previously noted, my historical fantasy piece, set in the fifth-century Mediterranean, was accepted for a Pirate Horror anthology, only for the anthology to later fall through. But in a good bit of news, it turned out that the story could indeed be re-marketed as sword and sorcery. As of ...
An employee of tobacco company Philip Morris International demonstrates a heated tobacco device. Photo: Getty ImagesTL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy on Friday, July 19 are:At a time when the Coalition Government is cutting spending on health, infrastructure, education, housing ...
TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 8:30 am on Friday, July 19 are:Scoop: NZ First Minister Casey Costello orders 50% cut to excise tax on heated tobacco products. The minister has ...
Kia ora, it’s time for another Friday roundup, in which we pull together some of the links and stories that caught our eye this week. Feel free to add more in the comments! Our header image this week shows a foggy day in Auckland town, captured by Patrick Reynolds. ...
TL;DR : Here’s the top six items climate news for Aotearoa this week, as selected by Bernard Hickey and The Kākā’s climate correspondent Cathrine Dyer. A discussion recorded yesterday is in the video above and the audio of that sent onto the podcast feed.The Government released its draft Emissions Reduction ...
Save some money, get rich and old, bring it back to Tobacco Road.Bring that dynamite and a crane, blow it up, start all over again.Roll up. Roll up. Or tailor made, if you prefer...Whether you’re selling ciggies, digging for gold, catching dolphins in your nets, or encouraging folks to flutter ...
Waiting In The Wings:For truly, if Trump is America’s un-assassinated Caesar, then J.D. Vance is America’s Octavian, the Republic’s youthful undertaker – and its first Emperor.DONALD TRUMP’S SELECTION of James D. Vance as his running-mate bodes ill for the American republic. A fervent supporter of Viktor Orban, the “illiberal” prime ...
TL;DR: As of 6:00 am on Friday, July 19, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:The PSAannounced the Employment Relations Authority (ERA) had ruled in the PSA’s favour in its case against the Ministry ...
Te Rangi e tu nei (The sky above us) Te Papa e takoto nei (The land beneath us) Tatou katoa te hunga ora (To us all the living) Tena koutou katoa (Greetings) ...
A late change to charter school legislation will cheat educators out of fair pay and negotiating power proving charter schools are just a vehicle to make profit out of our education system. ...
In 2004 te iwi Māori rallied against the Crown’s attempt to confiscate our coastlines and moana with the Foreshore and Seabed Act. This led to the largest hīkoi of a generation and the birth of Te Pāti Māori. 20 years later, history is repeating itself. Today the government has announced ...
It has been five and a half years since the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in Care was established to investigate the abuse of children, young people, and vulnerable adults within state and faith-based institutions. Yesterday, the final report - Whanaketia through pain and trauma, from darkness to light ...
The Green Party is calling on the Government to take action off the back of the International Court of Justice ruling on Israel’s illegal occupation of Palestine. ...
On Friday the International Court of Justice reaffirmed what Palestinian’s have been telling us for decades: that the occupation and colonisation of Palestinian lands by Israel is illegal and must end immediately. They also called for reparations for Palestinian’s who have lived under Israeli occupation since it began in 1967. ...
Labour calls on the Government to act after the International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruled that Israel’s occupation of Palestinian Territories is illegal. ...
The 53.7 percent rise in benefit sanctions over the last year is more proof of this Government’s disdain for our communities most in need of support. ...
Aotearoa could be a country where every child grows up feeling safe, loved and with a sense of belonging in their whānau and community. But for some of our children, this is far from reality. Instead, they are trapped in a maze of intergenerational harm that they can’t escape on ...
Te Pāti Māori are calling for David Seymour to resign as Associate Health Minister in response to his call for Pharmac to ignore the Treaty of Waitangi. “This announcement is just another example of the government’s anti-Tiriti, anti-Māori agenda.” Said Co-leader and spokesperson for health, Debbie Ngarewa-Packer. “Seymour thinks it ...
The soaring price of renting is driving the rise of inflation in this country - with latest figures from Stats NZ showing rents are up 4.8 per cent on average while annual inflation is at 3.3 per cent. ...
National’s Emissions Reduction Plan will take New Zealand further from the economy we need to ensure the next generation has a stable climate and secure livelihoods. ...
Following consultation with named parties and thorough consideration of privacy interests, the Green Party is in a position to release the Executive Summary of the final report from the independent investigation into Darleen Tana. ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon should be asking serious questions of his Minister for Resources Shane Jones now it’s been revealed he misled the public about a dinner with mining companies that he didn’t declare and said wasn’t pre-arranged. ...
Te Pāti Māori have submitted to the Justice Select Committee against the Sentencing (Reinstating Three Strikes) Amendment Bill. The bill will further entrench racism in our justice system and fails to focus on rehabilitation. “Reinstating Three Strikes will empower a systematically racist system and exacerbate the overrepresentation of Māori in ...
The Transport and Infrastructure Committee is set to make a determination on the Residential Tenancies Amendment (RTA) Bill in the coming weeks. “This legislation will give landlords the power to kick our whānau out onto the street for no reason” said Housing spokesperson, Mariameno Kapa-Kingi. “Their solution to the housing ...
“National’s campaign was about tackling crime and the best they can do is a two-year long Ministerial Advisory Group,” Labour justice spokesperson Duncan Webb said. ...
“There are more examples of charter schools failing their students than there are success stories. The coalition Government is driving to dismantle our public school system and instead promote a privatised, competitive structure that puts profits before kids,” Jan Tinetti said. ...
“This government is choosing to deliberately mislead and withhold information, keeping our people in the dark about this government’s agenda and the future of our mokopuna,” said co-leader and spokesperson for Health, Debbie Ngarewa-Packer. The call comes after the demand from the Chief Ombudsman that Associate Minister of Health, Casey ...
“Today’s climate announcement by Simon Watts makes clear the National Government is simply paying lip service to meeting its climate change targets,” Megan Woods said. ...
National is choosing to make life harder for workers by taking away the rights our communities have fought hard for. Here's how they’re taking workers backwards. ...
Australia, Canada and New Zealand today issued the following statement on the need for an urgent ceasefire in Gaza and the risk of expanded conflict between Hizballah and Israel. The situation in Gaza is catastrophic. The human suffering is unacceptable. It cannot continue. We remain unequivocal in our condemnation of ...
Attorney-General Judith Collins today reminded all State and faith-based institutions of their legal obligation to preserve records relevant to the safety and wellbeing of those in its care. “The Abuse in Care Inquiry’s report has found cases where records of the most vulnerable people in State and faith‑based institutions were ...
Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says the Government’s online safety website for children and young people has reached one million page views. “It is great to see so many young people and their families accessing the site Keep It Real Online to learn how to stay safe online, and manage ...
Tēnā tātou katoa, Ngā mihi te rangi, ngā mihi te whenua, ngā mihi ki a koutou, kia ora mai koutou. Thank you for the opportunity to be here and the invitation to speak at this 50th anniversary conference. I acknowledge all those who have gone before us and paved the ...
New Zealand’s payroll providers have successfully prepared to ensure 3.5 million individuals will, from Wednesday next week, be able to keep more of what they earn each pay, says Finance Minister Nicola Willis and Revenue Minister Simon Watts. “The Government's tax policy changes are legally effective from Wednesday. Delivering this tax ...
An experimental vineyard which will help futureproof the wine sector has been opened in Blenheim by Associate Regional Development Minister Mark Patterson. The covered vineyard, based at the New Zealand Wine Centre – Te Pokapū Wāina o Aotearoa, enables controlled environmental conditions. “The research that will be produced at the Experimental ...
The Coalition Government has confirmed the indicative regional breakdown of North Island Weather Event (NIWE) funding for state highway recovery projects funded through Budget 2024, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Regions in the North Island suffered extensive and devastating damage from Cyclone Gabrielle and the 2023 Auckland Anniversary Floods, and ...
Indonesia’s Foreign Minister, Retno Marsudi, will visit New Zealand next week, Foreign Minister Winston Peters has announced. “Indonesia is important to New Zealand’s security and economic interests and is our closest South East Asian neighbour,” says Mr Peters, who is currently in Laos to engage with South East Asian partners. ...
He aha te kai a te rangatira? He kōrero, he kōrero, he kōrero. The government has reaffirmed its commitment to supporting the aspirations of Ngāti Maniapoto, Minister for Māori Development Tama Potaka says. “My thanks to Te Nehenehenui Trust – Ngāti Maniapoto for bringing their important kōrero to a ministerial ...
Transport Minister Simeon Brown has thanked outgoing Chair of the Civil Aviation Authority, Janice Fredric, for her service to the board.“I have received Ms Fredric’s resignation from the role of Chair of the Civil Aviation Authority,” Mr Brown says.“On behalf of the Government, I want to thank Ms Fredric for ...
The Government is proposing legislation to overturn a Court of Appeal decision and amend the Marine and Coastal Area Act in order to restore Parliament’s test for Customary Marine Title, Treaty Negotiations Minister Paul Goldsmith says. “Section 58 required an applicant group to prove they have exclusively used and occupied ...
Regulation Minister David Seymour says that opposition parties have united in bad faith, opposing what they claim are ‘dangerous changes’ to the Early Childhood Education sector, despite no changes even being proposed yet. “Issues with affordability and availability of early childhood education, and the complexity of its regulation, has led ...
After receiving more than 740 submissions in the first 20 days, Regulation Minister David Seymour is asking the Ministry for Regulation to extend engagement on the early childhood education regulation review by an extra two weeks. “The level of interest has been very high, and from the conversations I’ve been ...
The Coalition Government is investing $802.9 million into the Wairarapa and Manawatū rail lines as part of a funding agreement with the NZ Transport Agency (NZTA), KiwiRail, and the Greater Wellington and Horizons Regional Councils to deliver more reliable services for commuters in the lower North Island, Transport Minister Simeon ...
Local Government Minister Simeon Brown has announced his intention to appoint a Crown Manager to both Hawke’s Bay Regional and Wairoa District Councils to speed up the delivery of flood protection work in Wairoa."Recent severe weather events in Wairoa this year, combined with damage from Cyclone Gabrielle in 2023 have ...
Mr Speaker, this is a day that many New Zealanders who were abused in State care never thought would come. It’s the day that this Parliament accepts, with deep sorrow and regret, the Report of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in Care. At the heart of this report are the ...
For the first time, the Government is formally acknowledging some children and young people at Lake Alice Psychiatric Hospital experienced torture. The final report of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in State and Faith-based Care “Whanaketia – through pain and trauma, from darkness to light,” was tabled in Parliament ...
The Government has acknowledged the nearly 2,400 courageous survivors who shared their experiences during the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Historical Abuse in State and Faith-Based Care. The final report from the largest and most complex public inquiry ever held in New Zealand, the Royal Commission Inquiry “Whanaketia – through ...
With a week to go before hard-working New Zealanders see personal income tax relief for the first time in fourteen years, 513,000 people have used the Budget tax calculator to see how much they will benefit, says Finance Minister Nicola Willis. “Tax relief is long overdue. From next Wednesday, personal income ...
Workplace Relations and Safety Minister Brooke van Velden says a bill that has passed its first reading will improve parental leave settings and give non-biological parents more flexibility as primary carer for their child. The Regulatory Systems Amendment Bill (No3), passed its first reading this morning. “It includes a change ...
Two Bills designed to improve regulation and make it easier to do business have passed their first reading in Parliament, says Economic Development Minister Melissa Lee. The Regulatory Systems (Economic Development) Amendment Bill and Regulatory Systems (Immigration and Workforce) Amendment Bill make key changes to legislation administered by the Ministry ...
New legislation paves the way for greater competition in sectors such as banking and electricity, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly says. “Competitive markets boost productivity, create employment opportunities and lift living standards. To support competition, we need good quality regulation but, unfortunately, a recent OECD report ranked New ...
Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says lotteries for charitable purposes, such as those run by the Heart Foundation, Coastguard NZ, and local hospices, will soon be allowed to operate online permanently. “Under current laws, these fundraising lotteries are only allowed to operate online until October 2024, after which ...
The Coalition Government is accelerating work on the new four-lane expressway between Auckland and Whangārei as part of its Roads of National Significance programme, with an accelerated delivery model to deliver this project faster and more efficiently, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “For too long, the lack of resilient transport connections ...
Sir Don McKinnon will travel to Viet Nam this week as a Special Envoy of the Government, Foreign Minister Winston Peters has announced. “It is important that the Government give due recognition to the significant contributions that General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong made to New Zealand-Viet Nam relations,” Mr ...
Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says newly appointed Commissioner, Grant Illingworth KC, will help deliver the report for the first phase of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into COVID-19 Lessons, due on 28 November 2024. “I am pleased to announce that Mr Illingworth will commence his appointment as ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters travels to Laos this week to participate in a series of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)-led Ministerial meetings in Vientiane. “ASEAN plays an important role in supporting a peaceful, stable and prosperous Indo-Pacific,” Mr Peters says. “This will be our third visit to ...
Construction of a new mental health facility at Te Nikau Grey Hospital in Greymouth is today one step closer, Mental Health Minister Matt Doocey says. “This $27 million facility shows this Government is delivering on its promise to boost mental health care and improve front line services,” Mr Doocey says. ...
New Zealand is committing nearly $50 million to a package supporting sustainable Pacific fisheries development over the next four years, Foreign Minister Winston Peters and Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones announced today. “This support consisting of a range of initiatives demonstrates New Zealand’s commitment to assisting our Pacific partners ...
Associate Education Minister David Seymour says proposed changes to the Education and Training Amendment Bill will ensure charter schools have more flexibility to negotiate employment agreements and are equipped with the right teaching resources. “Cabinet has agreed to progress an amendment which means unions will not be able to initiate ...
In response to serious concerns around oversight, overspend and a significant deterioration in financial outlook, the Board of Health New Zealand will be replaced with a Commissioner, Health Minister Dr Shane Reti announced today. “The previous government’s botched health reforms have created significant financial challenges at Health NZ that, without ...
Minister for Space and Science, Innovation and Technology Judith Collins will travel to Adelaide tomorrow for space and science engagements, including speaking at the Australian Space Forum. While there she will also have meetings and visits with a focus on space, biotechnology and innovation. “New Zealand has a thriving space ...
Climate Change Minister Simon Watts will travel to China on Saturday to attend the Ministerial on Climate Action meeting held in Wuhan. “Attending the Ministerial on Climate Action is an opportunity to advocate for New Zealand climate priorities and engage with our key partners on climate action,” Mr Watts says. ...
Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones is travelling to the Solomon Islands tomorrow for meetings with his counterparts from around the Pacific supporting collective management of the region’s fisheries. The 23rd Pacific Islands Forum Fisheries Committee and the 5th Regional Fisheries Ministers’ Meeting in Honiara from 23 to 26 July ...
The Government today launched the Military Style Academy Pilot at Te Au rere a te Tonga Youth Justice residence in Palmerston North, an important part of the Government’s plan to crackdown on youth crime and getting youth offenders back on track, Minister for Children, Karen Chhour said today. “On the ...
The Government has welcomed news the NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) has begun work to replace nine priority bridges across the country to ensure our state highway network remains resilient, reliable, and efficient for road users, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.“Increasing productivity and economic growth is a key priority for the ...
Acting Prime Minister David Seymour has been in contact throughout the evening with senior officials who have coordinated a whole of government response to the global IT outage and can provide an update. The Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet has designated the National Emergency Management Agency as the ...
New Zealand and Japan will continue to step up their shared engagement with the Pacific, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. “New Zealand and Japan have a strong, shared interest in a free, open and stable Pacific Islands region,” Mr Peters says. “We are pleased to be finding more ways ...
New developments in the heart of North Island forestry country will reinvigorate their communities and boost economic development, Regional Development Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones visited Kaingaroa and Kawerau in Bay of Plenty today to open a landmark community centre in the former and a new connecting road in ...
President Adeang, fellow Ministers, honourable Diet Member Horii, Ambassadors, distinguished guests. Minasama, konnichiwa, and good afternoon, everyone. Distinguished guests, it’s a pleasure to be here with you today to talk about New Zealand’s foreign policy reset, the reasons for it, the values that underpin it, and how it ...
Last summer when Matairangi burned, Ginny and Tom stood at the window of their lounge, watching kākā shoot skyward from the burning trees. From the distance, they looked to Ginny like pages torn from books and thrown into a bonfire. It was Tom, voice tight, who told her it was ...
Opinion: The Canadian short story writer Alice Munro – winner of the Nobel Prize in Literature in 2013 – died in May at the age of 92. Her work was about “the damage people inflict on one another in the name of love”, Deborah Treisman wrote in the New Yorker. ...
This month marks two years since the most powerful telescope ever built sent its first pictures back to earth. From its lofty vantage point, beyond the moon in orbit around the sun, the James Webb Space Telescope was tuned to observe the first stars and galaxies being born soon after ...
Comment: After Climate Change Minister Simon Watts’ preview several weeks ago, I had some optimism about the Government’s emissions reduction plan. Now I’ve read the discussion document, that hope has been dashed. How can the Government propose a plan that wants to take New Zealand taxpayers’ hard-earned money, and spend ...
Christopher Luxon: hurdles The little man from National jumps hurdles in his sleep. He’s quite good at it in his dreams and even though the reality doesn’t quite match up you have to give him credit for getting up every morning and crashing into the very first hurdle of the ...
Comment: It was a good two hours into the conversation when Tyrone Marks raised the most basic of questions when I first spoke to him in 2017. “They didn’t explain the things they did to me. They never told me why. And they still haven’t. There’s no explanation for it. ...
Madeleine Chapman rounds out Death Week on The Spinoff with a final recommendation. You can read all of our Death Week coverage here. Nothing forces you to reflect on your life and relationships quite like proximity to death. For those whose nearest and dearest have died, there are reasonably obvious ...
Whitney Greene takes us through her life in television, including the TV character she’d like to plan a funeral for and her cow lung catastrophe on The Traitors NZ. “If the phone rings, I have to answer it,” Whitney Greene from The Traitors NZ warns as we begin our My ...
Maddie Ballard reviews the debut essay collection of Pōneke writer Flora Feltham.In ‘The Raw Material’, the longest essay in Flora Feltham’s dazzling debut collection, the author heads out for a run after hours of weaving and sees the world turn to textile. “Pounding along the Parade, I saw the ...
Andy Christiansen, one half of the experimental rock-pop duo TRiPS, shares the tunes inspiring the band’s perfect weekend and new release. “Good speakers, good food, good music, no distractions”: that’s all you need to enjoy the psychedelic stylings of TRiPS, a new band formed by Fly My Pretties’ Barnaby Weir ...
Celebrating our quadrennial opportunity to become experts in a bunch of sports we never normally watch.The games of the XXXIII Olympiad are upon us. Paris will host this year’s showcase of sporting and athletic prowess, which means some late-night and early-morning viewing for us in Aotearoa.But what sports ...
The photograph is striking and beautiful, but also disturbing – a reminder that my love for John was often entangled in shame.The Sunday Essay is made possible thanks to the support of Creative New Zealand.In the spring of 1980, in Dunedin, shortly before his death, someone took a photograph ...
Get to know Babushka, our latest Dog of the Month. This feature was offered as a reward during our What’s Eating Aotearoa PledgeMe campaign. Thank you to Babu’s humans, Jo and Isabel, for their support. Dog name: Babushka (Babu for short) Age: 2Breed: Border Collie X poodleIf rescued, ...
Pacific Media Watch A Lebanese photojournalist who was severely wounded during an Israeli air strike in south Lebanon carried the Olympic torch in Paris this week in honour of her peers who have been wounded and killed in the field — especially in Gaza and Lebanon. Christina Assi of Agence ...
The first report in a five-part web series focused on the 15th Triennial Conference of Pacific Women taking place in the Marshall Islands this week.SPECIAL REPORT:By Netani Rika in Majuro Women continue to fight for justice 70 years after the first nuclear tests by the United States caused ...
Christopher Luxon has joined with Australia and Canada's leaders in voicing support for US President Joe Biden's ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra The 2022 election brought the “teal wave” into parliament. The next election will test whether teals, who occupy what were Liberal seats, and other independents can maintain their momentum. Joining us on the Podcast ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ian Musgrave, Senior lecturer in Pharmacology, University of Adelaide Pixavri/Shutterstock A major Federal Court class action has been dismissed this week after Justice Michael Lee ruled there was not enough evidence to prove the weedkiller Roundup causes cancer. Plaintiff Kelvin ...
In The Week in Politics: politicians have to decide what to do about child abuse, Health NZ is booked in for major surgery and Darleen Tana returns. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Clare Corbould, Associate Professor, Contemporary Histories Research Group, Deakin University Mainstream media are surprisingly muted at the prospect of the world’s most powerful nation being led for the first time by a woman – specifically a woman of colour, Vice President Kamala ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rebecca Bennett, PhD Student, Associate Research Fellow, Deakin University Last week, a drone delivery company called Wing (owned by Google’s parent company, Alphabet) started operating in Melbourne. Some 250,000 residents in parts of the city’s eastern suburbs can now order food from ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jonathan Foo, Lecturer, Physiotherapy, Monash University pikselstock/Shutterstock In the next 40 years in Australia, it’s predicted the number of Australians aged 65 and over will more than double, while the number of people aged 85 and over will more than triple. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Katrina Grant, Research Associate, Power Institute for Arts and Visual Culture, University of Sydney Jonas Åkerström’s 1790 work, Session of the Accademia dell’Arcadia on August 17 1788.Nationalmuseum/Cecilia Heisser Ever wondered whether you’d have a better chance at winning an Olympic gold ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alexandra Jones, Program Lead, Food Governance, George Institute for Global Health wavebreakmedia/Shutterstock On Thursday, Australian and New Zealand food ministers at state, federal and national levels met to thrash out what’s next for health star ratings on packaged foods. Now, after ...
The Abuse in Care report found many Pacific survivors lost their connections to their culture and language, resulting in trauma that has been carried from generation to generation. ...
In the regulatory review, ECC intends to suggest that ERO focus on curriculum delivery reviews rather than the Ministry, because it’s not efficient or effective to have two agencies with radically different approaches climbing over each other. ...
Te Rūnanga Nui o Ngā Kura Kaupapa Māori invites the current government to work in partnership with them to develop a pathway forward, including the development of a parallel pathway and meaningful policy and strategy for Kura Kaupapa Māori ...
If you haven’t started watching yet, Tara Ward begs you to reconsider. This is an excerpt from our weekly pop culture newsletter Rec Room. Sign up here. In the world of New Zealand reality television, we have many gems in our crown. There’s the delicious second season of the Celebrity Treasure ...
A new poem by Fiona Kidman. The clothes of the dead I did not keep my mother’s furry red beret for long nor the stringy scarves that adorned the necks of my aunts, although I have kept tag ends of gold, the rings and trinkets they wore, the brooches no ...
The government’s announcement that it will re-open the foreshore and seabed controversy by changing the rules on recognising centuries-old Māori customary title for a third time goes against the rule of law and New Zealand values,” Mr Tipa says. ...
The only published and available best-selling indie book chart in New Zealand is the top 10 sales list recorded every week at Unity Books’ stores in High St, Auckland, and Willis St, Wellington.AUCKLAND1 Lioness by Emily Perkins (Bloomsbury, $25) Roarrrr! Perkins’ brilliant, award-winning, Marian-Keyes anointed, darkly funny, long ...
The 2004 Act vested ownership of the foreshore and seabed in the Crown, extinguishing any Māori claims to ownership and causing widespread outrage and protests among Māori communities. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Antje Deckert, Associate Professor (Criminology), Auckland University of Technology Getty Images Despite the connection between institutional harm and gang membership made clear in this week’s mammoth royal commission abuse-in care report, the government seems unlikely to soften its “get tough on ...
From Lewis Clareburt in the swimming to the start of the rowing – the first seven days of Paris 2024 promise to be big for New Zealand. There are few events that bring the country together quite like an Olympic Games. Nothing quite matches the excitement of getting up in ...
Groundbreaking local science just showed up in the most surprising of places: the season finale of The Kardashians. In the season five finale of The Kardashians last night, several members of the family gathered together in one of their signature empty, cream-coloured rooms to hear test results that had been ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Amin Saikal, Emeritus professor of Middle Eastern and Central Asian Studies, Australian National University The Middle East is on the brink of a possibly devastating regional war, with hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah reaching an extremely dangerous level. Washington has engaged in ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Laura Elizabeth Eades, Rheumatologist, Monash University Lupus is an inflammatory autoimmune illness, where the body’s immune system mistakenly attacks itself. Lupus can affect virtually any part of the body, although it most commonly affects the skin, joints and kidneys. The symptoms ...
A law firm that specialises in working with survivors of abuse in State care is disappointed that the Government fails to recognise that its boot camps can be directly compared to previous boot camps from the 1990s and 2000s. ...
Dying is a natural part of life, like updating your Wof or seeing your hairdresser, but without the word-of-mouth recs that help guarantee a good service. What if we changed that? Dying Reviews received by The Spinoff have had the names of organisations redacted while Hospice NZ collects further data. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jonti Horner, Professor (Astrophysics), University of Southern Queensland Mike Lewinski/Flickr, CC BY On any clear night, if you gaze skywards long enough, chances are you’ll see a meteor streaking through the sky. Some nights, however, are better than others. At ...
Despite having no bars or other designated spaces for lesbians, Auckland boasts a small but mighty lesbian museum. So how did it get here? The past 18 months has brought increasing hostility towards the queer community across Aotearoa. Kellie-Jay Keen-Minshull’s anti-trans rally in Tamaki Makaurau last March led to a ...
Poneke Antifascist Coalition has invited Wellingtonians to stand in solidarity with the Kanak people at 12pm today outside the French Embassy in Wellington. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Layton, Visiting Fellow, Strategic Studies, Griffith University Drones are the signature technology of the Ukraine war. A few miniature aircraft designs were used in the war’s early days, but an incredible array of drones have now evolved. There are different types, ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mark Slee, Associate Professor, Clinical Academic Neurologist, Flinders University Francisco Gonzelez/Unsplash Migraine is many things, but one thing it’s not is “just a headache”. “Migraine” comes from the Greek word “hemicrania”, referring to the common experience of migraine being predominantly ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lee White, Senior Lecturer and Horizon Fellow, School of Social and Political Sciences, University of Sydney Australia was slow to introduce minimum building standards for energy efficiency. The Nationwide House Energy Rating Scheme (NatHERS) only came into force in 2003. Older homes ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Steven Sherwood, Professor of Atmospheric Sciences, Climate Change Research Centre, UNSW Sydney The past century of human-induced warming has increased rainfall variability over 75% of the Earth’s land area – particularly over Australia, Europe and eastern North America, new research shows. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tony Heynen, Program Coordinator, Sustainable Energy, The University of Queensland A temporary stadium in the Champ-de-Mars, ParisEkaterina Pokrovsky/Shutterstock As Paris prepares to host the Olympic and Paralympic Games, the sustainability of the event is coming under scrutiny. The organisers have promoted ...
A night of karaoke and community in a pub that feels like a memory. You’d barely even notice it, unless you knew to look. Tucked away behind a liquor store on busy Constable Street is the capital’s last great pub. Newtown Sports Bar is an emblem of the pub culture ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ian Wright, Professor in Marine Geology, University of Canterbury Louise Corcoran/Getty Images The decline in the number of doctoral candidates at New Zealand universities is a worrying sign for the country’s effort to build a knowledge-based economy. Aotearoa New Zealand’s ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Laurie Berg, Associate Professor, University of Technology Sydney defotoberg/Shutterstock Migrant worker exploitation is entrenched in workplaces across Australia. Tragically, a deep fear of immigration consequences means most unlawful employer conduct goes unreported. On Wednesday, however, the government officially launched a ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Vaughan Cruickshank, Senior Lecturer in Health and Physical Education, University of Tasmania Paris is about to host its third summer Olympics. While we don’t yet know what the legacy of this year’s games will be, let’s take the opportunity to reflect on ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hugh Breakey, Deputy Director, Institute for Ethics, Governance & Law, Griffith University In the wake of the assassination attempt on former US President Donald Trump, there were calls from bothsides of US politics, as well as internationally, to reduce the brutal, ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Keith Rathbone, Senior Lecturer, Modern European History and Sports History, Macquarie University Two high-profile assaults on Australians in Paris have raised concerns about security ahead of the Olympic Games. On Saturday evening, a young woman was allegedly sexually assaulted by a ...
Dying is inevitable and, so it seems, is it costing a lot, writes Stewart Sowman-Lund in today’s extract from The Bulletin. To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign up here.The cost of dying ...
The government took Joyce Harris's first baby and sent her off to a girls' home. Half a century on - and out of oceans of hurt - it asked her to be a mother figure. ...
It’s the deadliest fictional town in the country, but which death has been the most bonkers? Alex Casey looks back at 10 seasons of The Brokenwood Mysteries to find out. Warning: The following ranking story contains famous New Zealand actors appearing to be dead (not alive). The Spinoff has been ...
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NONFICTION 1 The Last Secret Agent by Pippa Latour & Jude Dobson (Allen & Unwin, $37.99) 2 The Life of Dai by Dai Henwood and Jaquie Brown (HarperCollins, $39.99) 3 A Life Less Punishing by Matt Heath (Allen & Unwin, $37.99) 4 Waitohu by Hinemoa Elder (Penguin Random House, $35) ...
How NZ's health system is racist: https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/119627680/why-do-maori-suffer-inequality-in-the-health-system-some-experts-say-its-white-privilege
"On February 6, 2020, weather stations recorded the hottest temperature on record for Antarctica. Thermometers at the Esperanza Base on the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula reached 18.3°C (64.9°F)—around the same temperature as Los Angeles that day. The warm spell caused widespread melting on nearby glaciers.
The warm temperatures arrived on February 5 and continued until February 13, 2020. The images above show melting on the ice cap of Eagle Island and were acquired by the Operational Land Imager (OLI) on Landsat 8 on February 4 and February 13, 2020."
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/146322/antarctica-melts-under-its-hottest-days-on-record?fbclid=IwAR3OcrCYBnFUTbTamsK5ywoiVQBcxoIHUonwnzDgnwWG_oDcy3g2A-J58cE
Just sayin'
Warmer than Invercargill. 🙂
We's fucked. It's over. "How fast?" is the only question I still have. (Sort of, as in "How much time elapses between the body impacting on the ground at a great rate of knots and the actual moment of death?")
Eight of the 10 hottest temperatures in NZ occurred in 1973.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/100944546/new-zealands-10-hottest-temperatures-ever-recorded
Any particular reason you've dug up a two year old article?
Cos he thinks a single day's measurements lend controversy to what is actually a trend e.g we just went through our hottest ever decade.
Following the prompts of bots and boofheads on social media to prove lack of acumen. Spreading the shit to show lack of moral fibre.
When we need a mind-reading Moderator on this site, you should definitely submit your application with full CV.
I recall a lot of moderating required to manage CV's mindreading. 🙂
He has/had a unique mind 😉
Given that quite a few seem to have trouble reading what is actually written here I’d suggest they leave the mindreading out of it. It can easily lead to putting words into people’s mouths and making stupid assumptions and attributions, which usually lead to a war of words instead of robust debate.
Given that the pressure on Moderators will increase in Election Year there is bound to be less mindreading and more direct action. For example, some might find themselves shunted onto the Blacklist till Moderators have time and energy to sort out things whilst protecting the flow of comments and debate (and writing Posts!).
PS CV was before my time as Moderator on this site; I’ve had it relatively easy so far 😉
@ Muttonbird: don’t blame us for your predicament. It will be sorted so be patient till the Moderator has time to look into it; you can help (i.e. make it easier for all involved) or hinder and that is for you to choose. My personal advice: choose (your words) wisely. No more communication from me on this.
Yeah fair call. Should have been some prefix's like 'maybe', and 'perhaps'. But I'm not so stupid I can't draw the dots
Perhaps he's implying a single weather event makes climate change data controversial. Which is utter tosh.
Very likely, given his past form. I was hoping he'd elaborate…
Any particular reason you've dug up a two year old article?
History is more than just stuff that happened yesterday. I like history although I acknowledge that not everyone is a fan. 🙂
Climate is more than a day taken in isolation. Taking a single day in isolation looks remarkably like cherry picking which is a classic climate change denier technique.
As for history: needs relevant context, which you (funnily enough) fail to give.
Climate is more than a day taken in isolation.
Quite correct. But when Robert said that the hottest day on record has been recorded in Antarctica, you didn’t respond. That’s your prerogative but it’s hard to take you seriously. If you wish to call him a climate denier, you are welcome to do so. But given his previous comments on climate change, I think you’d be well wide of the mark.
That’s a reasonable comment albeit that Robert’s comment @ 2 was in line with CC, based on a recent observation, and he has no form as a CC ‘sceptic’ or denier.
Given that you’re a fan of (climate) history, here’s a little treasure trove for you: https://niwa.co.nz/climate/information-and-resources/nz-temperature-record
If your post was meant to be a reply to Robert's then why didn't your make it one?
Why I questioned you: you have form and have run these sort of distractions before. Robert's posting history shows he generally understands climate whereas yours contains repeated climate denial lines. As I said, context is important…
Did you bother to read the article about Antarctica? It provides some context: warm temperatures becoming more frequent this century when they were previously rare.
As you interested in climate history, perhaps you could look up what happened last time there was very high atmospheric CO2. What was Antarctica covered in?
perhaps you could look up what happened last time there was very high atmospheric CO2. What was Antarctica covered in?
Oh I dunno …
yours contains repeated climate denial lines.
You must be thinking of someone else. But if you can post a copy of what I’ve said in the past, you’ll realise that.
@ Ross
I read you as a reasonably smart contributor here; so I offer this simple, concrete explanation. Imagine people are walking past your shop doorway and you're measuring and recording their height (a simple smart camera would do the job).
Over the period of a week or so you'd notice that the data fell within a certain upper and lower limit. (You'd also quickly notice the bi-modal difference between males and females, but for the sake of the analogy, lets set that aside.) The actual height of any given person would be both stochastic and normally distributed within this range. The vast majority of people fall within 3 standard deviations of the average. Hopefully this 101 Statistics is familiar to you.
Interestingly you'd find some extreme outliers that happen at very low frequencies, but they are very rare. What is more interesting is that the reason why they are such outliers often has underlying medical causes that puts the reason for their extreme into a different class than the usual causes of height variation. Or imagine you were recording the temperature in a room on a daily basis, that was usually held between 20 – 30 degC. Then one day the data came back at -40degC for just that one day, then returned to normal. Is this real data? It's way more likely this one day was because the instrument had been turned off, rather than representing a real variation. On this basis it's reasonable to discard this extreme outlier because it will contaminate the long term record if you leave it in.
But then if you leave the camera recording long enough something else becomes apparent; over the period of decades the average height slowly increases. The change is far too small to notice on a daily or even yearly basis, but as a whole generation passes by it becomes obvious. At the large secondary school I went to I was one of the two or three tallest, but these days I get a crick in my neck looking up at them.
Note carefully … while the frequency of very tall kids between say 184 and 194cm has increased significantly, the frequency of the extreme outliers (274cm) has not … because the reason why they are so extreme is not driven by the underlying mechanism (improved nutrition in this case) that is causing the average height to rise.
Sorry if this is a laborious explanation, hopefully the parallel to climate change is obvious to you. I've made this point a few times now; both climate deniers and alarmists indulge in cherry picking weather events and climate to suit their agenda. They also frequently misrepresent extreme events without properly attributing them.
In simple terms climate is just weather trended to a 30 year basis. What we clearly see in the data is that over this time frame, average temperatures everywhere are rising. Case closed. What we don't know, and this is critical to understand, is what impact the increasing heat energy in the system is going to have on the variability of the weather and what impact on extreme events this will have. It’s reasonable to hypothesise that variability will increase but exactly how and where is not obvious; case definitely still open.
That complicates the discussion a lot.
Various govts over the years have attempted to make life bearable for those in need: give $50 winter heating allowances, meals at school, hardship allowances, etc.
When will those in power ever learn to fix the cause not try a bandage cure the symptoms ? if benefits, wage conditions are inadequate why not go the rather root ? Or do they not trust those in need to spend the $ wisely ?
Probably because as soon as you raise income the landlords will put the rent up
Rent caps. Screw these racketeering assholes.
Rent caps only work if there are enough homes already. Say, after a big state house building programme or when financial speculation incentives are structurally removed from the system.
So that's where the recent party-line digs about art auctions have fitted in: https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/410130/labour-got-donations-from-two-accused-in-national-party-case
Never put all your eggs in one basket.
I'm still trying to herd the chickens.
It’s no easier to school a flock of chickens than to flog a school of fish.
A bob each way so they backed a winner, wonder if they got anything for their donation![angel angel](https://cdn.ckeditor.com/4.11.3/full-all/plugins/smiley/images/angel_smile.png)
A piece of art? He got a piece of art.
I bought a piece of art in a NZLP auction. Can't remember what I paid for it, a print. But I got no favours for it.
I once donated, with permission from the artist, an art work for auction. It went for a good sum. I was given it by the artist who has since died, thereby immeasurably increasing its value. The painting was bought by a National party supporter who I know. I hope she is enjoying it, because she got no favours either apart from owning a fine painting by a top artist which is appreciating in value. Sometimes, just sometimes, there is nothing ulterior but a good deal all round. I lost a painting, another person got it, the NZLP got a good donation- all happy.
A piece of art?
I bought a piece of art in a NZLP auction. Can't remember what I paid for it, a print. But I got no favours for it, except for seeing it every day.
I once donated, with permission from the artist, an art work for auction. It went for a good sum. I was given it by the artist who has since died, thereby immeasurably increasing its value. The painting was bought by a National party supporter who I know. I hope she is enjoying it, because she got no favours either apart from owning a fine painting by a top artist which is appreciating in value. Sometimes, just sometimes, there is nothing ulterior but a good deal all round. I lost a painting, another person got it, the NZLP got a good donation- all happy.
Yes thats it, I'm sure the guy was just being benevolent![laugh laugh](https://cdn.ckeditor.com/4.11.3/full-all/plugins/smiley/images/teeth_smile.png)
Can you point otherwise? To what personal benefit this man has achieved from buying an art work? You're saying that $10 grand buys influence? That's pretty cheap…….. in at least two ways.
You need at least $200 grand it seems for two MPs of superior quality.
Silent auction, indeed!
well, ten grand one way and a hundred k the other.
I guess they knew who was more likely to grant favours.
Price is what you pay value is what you get…
What value did the voters get from paying the price?
Beats me but they don't seem the type to throw around some cash without expecting something in return
In other words, just more hot air from you?
Pity, because we could have had a robust debate about the perverse influence of donations (declared and undeclared) on NZ politics.
I see you’ve found another topic to use your considerable bandwidth on.
Well heres my view, no public funding of political parties and all donations to be declared or up to $50 or some similar number
Whatever is easiest
Here’s my view: equal State funding for each political party standing in the Election. No monetary private donations at all.
Agree. And I have a similar proposition regarding private schools:
that private schools should be allowed to retain their 'special character' in curriculum, etc, but that in funding per student they should be strictly kept down to that of state schools.
I can live with that too 😉
Interesting post from kiwiblog, can any Greenies confirm if its correct?
https://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2020/02/greens_panicking.html
'I won’t lie, the last two polls aren’t looking good for us. Last night’s poll marks the second in a row that indicate we are at risk of falling below the 5% threshold'
You don’t have to be a “Greenie” to draw your own conclusions from polls. Unless you’re severely mathematically challenged or biased.
I actually wanted to know if the email was correct and that kiwiblog wasn't telling porkies, I'm well aware that NZFirst are well below the threshold and that the Greens are floundering (#labournomates) and its a beautiful thing to see
Why didn’t you actually ask the question that you actually wanted to know?
Why not ask the question on KB instead of linking to it here under false pretences?
Why not test out the e-mail for yourself and report back?
Why not stop wasting our time and attention here with your little wind-ups?
BTW, these are rhetorical questions.
Why didn’t you actually ask the question that you actually wanted to know?
– I did
Why not ask the question on KB instead of linking to it here under false pretences?
– No false pretences and more Greenies on here than on kiwiblog I suspect
Why not test out the e-mail for yourself and report back?
– I don't like giving emails out to political parties, who knows what they'll do with them
Why not stop wasting our time and attention here with your little wind-ups?
– Its political and interesting don't you think
BTW, these are rhetorical questions.
– Because I respect you enough as a poster to give you honest answers to questions
Well you will be pleased to know that the huge group of "undecided" means that your concern may well be misplaced. The government is also showing that they can still achieve a lot even with a party that is trying to position itself to appeal to National voters who may well be looking for another home. The mutual respect means that any of the three parties can advise that they will not support particular legislation; without that breaking the government. No small party has flourished from trying to work with National, who do not understand working with others; it was good that Bridges made his position clear. I am confident that the Green Party will achieve over 5%; I am however disappointed that the government did not accept the recommendation from the review to reduce the 5% threshold.
PR – do you actually understand the nature of a rhetorical question?
The common example is, 'What use is it to be rich if you are not happy?'
No answer expected, because the question is already telling you; 'It is no use to be rich if you are not happy,'
Try looking again at Incognito's questions in that light.
I did and I took it to mean that Incognito was being a flibbertigibbet so I answered completely truthfully, because I'm good like that
But you haven't looked at his/her questions again and understood what he/she was telling you. Too depressing?
Because this:
Why didn’t you actually ask the question that you actually wanted to know?
– I did
After that it was all moot wasn't it, Incognito was assuming I had ulterior motives for the question I asked whereas I actually asked the question I wanted an answer for
Evasion
Naah not really, I'm asking the question I want answered anything else is other peoples business I guess
Sigh
Your first attempt at a question @ 6 was vague, ambiguous, and pretty much unanswerable to anyone who had not read the post on KB or even for those who had read it. Your Q was followed by a link to divert traffic away to the sewer blog and quoted text that was self-evident.
Then, @ 6.1.1, you state that you actually wanted to know about the e-mail address, which you could have explained in the first place @ 6.
Diverting traffic to KB is generally not a good idea and with your personal political preferences, it was a logical assumption that this was your false pretence. Never mind, you would not have admitted it in any case.
Why ask if the e-mail address is legit if you have no interest whatsoever in sending them an e-mail?
Your diversion and wind-ups are time wasters and not “political and interesting”, IMO.
A rhetorical Q does not require an A but you seem unable to stop bleating.
So, here we are, answering your Q that you actually don’t give a toss about. Let’s just say that you have burnt quite a bit of credit with me for no gain whatsoever. Consider it throwing away money at a silent auction and leaving empty-handed.
I wasn't asking if the email address was correct, I was asking if the information in the email that was sent was correct.
IE was the information sent correct or was the information sent incorrect
"Let’s just say that you have burnt quite a bit of credit with me for no gain whatsoever."
Wow thats quite an arrogant statement don't you think
The Green Party campaign director going out into print like that is a really clear public warning that there's a really good chance the Green Party is about to go the way of the Maori Party.
Even in a mediocre government run by inherited surpluses and a single person's charisma, the Green delivery has been the standout worst since 2017.
The Green Party deserves the arse card this year.
.
Latest UMR / CB / RR Polls were conducted 7-8 months out from the 2020 Election.
Based on results from the same Pollsters at the same point in the run-up to previous Elections going back to 1999 … & making a few crucial assumptions about differing electoral contexts (always a tricky business) … I'm still predicting that:
Greens are heading for 6.0 – 6.5% Party Vote.
So I'm curious and you're quite switched on, whats your prediction for the party vote for National, Labour, NZFirst and Act?
.
Well, if you twisted my arm … then … (apart from retaliating with a quick jab in the Kidneys) … I'd be forced to say something along the lines of:
Green: 6.2%
NZF: 5.7%
But I haven't even begun to look at the Major Parties … needs to be done in a systematic way … so a few weeks away yet.
(Then again, in a few weeks’ time COVID-19 might be all we’re interested in talking about).
NZFirst that high? Interesting
They have a track record of a decent bounce at the poll that counts.
Consider NZF Poll support at the same point during their last 2 stints in Govt:
I'll use Colmar Brunton as an example:
2008
Colmar Brunton
April 2008 (same point out from Election): 1.5%
(Up 2.57 points on this at subsequent Election)
CB 4 Poll Average (Dec 2007-April 2008):: 1.9%
(Up 2.17 points on this at subsequent Election)
CB Average over previous 12 Months: 2.2%
(Up 1.87 points on this at subsequent Election)
2008 Election Result (Party Vote): 4.07%
1999
Colmar Brunton
April 1999 (same point out from Election): 2%
(Up 2.26 points at subsequent Election)
CB 4 Poll Average (Dec 1998-April 1999): 2.2%
(Up 2.06 points at subsequent Election)
CB Average over previous 12 Months: 2.2%
(Up 2.06 points at subsequent Election)
1999 Election Result (Party Vote):4.26%
2020
Colmar Brunton
Feb 2020 (same point out from Election): 3.3%
CB 4 Poll Average (July 2019 – Feb 2020): 3.8%
CB Average over previous 12 Months: 4.1%
2020 Election Result (Party Vote): looking very 5.5-6.0%
A similar comparison with UMR figures suggests something broadly similar, while TV3 Reid Research / CM stats would suggest NZF are heading a little lower (close to the 5% threshold).
So, the upshot of all of that – plus one or two assumptions about differing political / electoral contexts – plus a little bit of magic – leads me inexorably towards a 2020 NZF Party Vote of 5.7% …
… 5.68% to be exact 🙂
Thats cool but dont think Bridges ruling out Winnie will have an impact on his right leaning voters, they won't be happy knowing a vote for Winnie is a vote for Labour and all that
.
Yeah … but the problem with that argument:
Oppo Leader John Key also ruled out forming a coalition or entering any kind of support arrangement with NZ First in the run-up to the 2008 Election …
… and yet, as you can see, NZF still ended 2.6 points higher (at the 2008 Election) than they were polling in the Colmar Brunton 7 months out (ie the same point we're at currently).
3.3% (NZF in latest CB)
+ 2.6
= 5.9%
Thanks for that, swordfish. Do you have similar information for NZF for the Colmar Brunton polls for 2011, 2014 and 2017? I would be interested to see whether the same trends happened then between the polls and election results – but only if you have the info readily available.
veutoviper
NZF
.
2011
Colmar Brunton
April 2011 (same point out from Election): 2.7%
(Up 3.9 points on this at subsequent Election)
CB 4 Poll Average (Sep 2010 – April 2011): 3.0%
(Up 3.6 points on this at subsequent Election)
CB Average over previous 12 Months: 2.6%
(Up 4 points on this at subsequent Election)
2011 Election Result (Party Vote): 6.59%
2014
Colmar Brunton
Feb 2014 (same point out from Election): 3.1%
(Up 5.56 points on this at subsequent Election)
CB 4 Poll Average (July 2013 – Feb 2014):: 3.5%
(Up 5.16 points on this at subsequent Election)
CB Average over previous 12 Months: 3.4%
(Up 5.26 points on this at subsequent Election)
2014 Election Result (Party Vote): 8.66%
2017
Colmar Brunton
Feb 2017 (same point out from Election): 11%
(Down 3.8 points on this at subsequent Election)
CB 4 Poll Average (June 2016 – Feb 2017): 10.3%
(Down 3.1 points on this at subsequent Election)
CB Average over previous 12 Months: 10%
(Down 2.8 points on this at subsequent Election)
2017 Election Result (Party Vote): 7.2%
I think it’s most useful / appropriate to focus on NZF’s two stints in Govt (though, of course, they were ailing third term administrations = so no perfect comparisons).
Thanks for the extra information, swordfish. Really appreciate it.
I agree that it is probably "most useful / appropriate to focus on NZF’s two stints in Govt (though, of course, they were ailing third term administrations = so no perfect comparisons)". However, it is also interesting to see that the trends appear to have continued for the 2011 and 2014 elections. Re the 2017 election, the opposite downward trend in actual result is not surprising given the high polling and the extraordinary events that took place pre-election.
I have also tracked down your various predictions etc in Oct and Aug 2019 here on TS and looking at the whole lot together is now on my To Do list but have a few other priorities to be cleared before that can happen. Thanks again.
Time to sack the odious suit Shaw… and put a real socialist in charge – Bradford or McDonald.
Not trying to be funny but don't the Greens have a thing about equal gender representation and currently they 8 MPs but only two males…so a split of 75-25
Mind you I suppose he could be sacked and still stay on
Time for the Green Party to ditch environmenatlism in favour of socialism? I have to admit this makes as much sense as anything else you post.
I haven't been back and checked the email, but that quote matches my memory of it. However, the email was a request for donations, which always come with a message about how the county is doomed if you don't bung the party some dosh right away. This one was no different in that respect, and DPF's post is just the usual "fomenting happy mischief" in the interests of the National Party.
Though Labour should be worried, the Greens falling under 5% wouldn't do them any favours
Oh, for sure. I tend towards the view that the country would quite literally be doomed if the Greens fall below 5%, so I immediately bunged the party some dosh as requested. I don't think many in Labour share that opinion about the value of the Greens, though.
(I'm no fan of the Greens of course) Thats quite short-sighted of Labour I'd have thought
I suspect the Greens have more support in Labour than you imagine – quite a few people do "christmas tree" voting (Labour and Green), and the smart way would be to electorate Labour and party vote Green, as they're the ones closest to the threshold.
NZ1, on the other hand, I reckon most Labour and Greens could take or leave. Supergold card good, immigration, guns, fossil fuel policies bad lol.
I hope you're right that I'm wrong(!) about Labour in this respect.
… quite a few people do "christmas tree" voting (Labour and Green)...
Me too. Apologies to whoever the Green candidate in my electorate will be, but I probably won't even learn your name – keeping the Labour electorate MP as this electorate's MP will be my priority.
Indeed, that’s why I frown upon unthinking commenters who link to it with questionable motives.
Yep. The email to members/supporters/donor is just normal fundraising technique. I get these all the time from Labour saying how hard the fight is going to be and how every little bit helps. Will you chip in?
Farrar may as well have done a post on each Party's election year email correspondence with their supporters but he chose to highlight the Greens' email because that is the Party he is most afraid of this week.
What's a silent auction?
https://www.google.com/search?q=silent+auction&rlz=1C1CHBF_enNZ690NZ690&oq=silent+auction&aqs=chrome
Thanks PR.
It's conducted around dinner tables. Going rate is $100 grand per MP……….
Interesting link to TDB on Greens, electorates and managing the known votes for best outcome.
https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2020/02/23/greens-have-most-to-fear-from-jacindas-time-cover-why-labour-should-make-an-electorate-deal-in-central-auckland/#comment-492362
I like it! I mean my one hope for the election was to see Winnie gone, didn't care who got into power as long as Winnie was gone but to see the Greens floundering at this stage in the cycle is just the cherry on the top.
Lets face it Winnies going to be going at the Greens big time from now until the election to get back into parliament so its going to be a rough ride for them
Maybe if they get a shellacking in the election it might force them to think of a better way, a way to be able to work with all parties for the sake of the environment…![wink wink](https://cdn.ckeditor.com/4.11.3/full-all/plugins/smiley/images/wink_smile.png)
Remind me again why the 5% threshold is a Good Thing? Remind me again why doing deals with electorate seats because of the MMP rule giving parties with electorate seat/s a % of the seats commensurate with their party vote , but otherwise restricting minor parties to a 5% threshold?
So far people on this blog have advocated for special deals for three parties, Greens, ACT and NZF. I bet others would welcome TOP with 2.4% on the 2017 vote, the Conservatives etc.
I am sure that a Green/NZF % would outweigh a ACT, Conservative, TOP, Maori league.
It might even encourage the full impact of MMP by inducing the National Party to shrug off its factions and devolve into at least two parties similar to the ones it coalesced from in the Thirties.
Well I'd like MMP changed (no I don't want FPP), last election the largest party has nothing to do with government and to me thats wrong because that means 44% of the voters are ignored.
This election it looks like Labour will be a one term govt and as much as I'll enjoy the wailing and gnashing of teeth of the left (and I will) it'll still be a really large percentage of voters that're now ignored.
Is MMP the best electoral system, can it be improved? If the threshold can be lowered then what other changes can be made to make the system fairer?
If the polls you are citing are correct, then it would easily be possible that the party/coalition with a higher percentage of the vote would goive way to one party with a buy-in deal in Epsom with a lower vote.
FFP has dealt that situation in NZ before. One reason why we went to MMP. Now the intricacies of MMP could deliver the very same result if the Greens and NZF were to fall below the 5% threshold without buy-in deals in Nelson, Auckland Central, Northland as have been suggested.
Theres more chance of me spontaneously growing my hair back then there is Jones winning Northland.
Nelson is a possibility but not until Smith retires (hes really well liked up there)
Auckland Central isn't likely either (no matter what Bradbury thinks)
To see how it is to win an electorate seat even with a deal just look at Epsom:
Act 16 500 votes and National 10500, I mean with the deal on you'd expect Act to be higher
Incorrect!
The numbers you are quoting are the Candidate votes for David Seymour (16,505) and Paul Goldsmith (10,986), respectively.
The Party votes were:
Green Party 3,263
National Party 22,875
Labour Party 9,575
New Zealand First Party 1,229
ACT New Zealand 696
https://www.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2017/electorate-details-12.html
No wonder that you predict even four seats for ACT
A large proportion of the Epsom electorate are very well informed (and another part is not, when you look at the number of votes for the other candidates!). However, in other electorates there may be too many “low info” voters to pull it off so this makes these a risky proposition. There’s something counter-intuitive or counter-instinctive to vote for the enemy to win the war and obviously many can’t bring themselves to doing it.
“He’s really well liked up there”. Not by anyone I know. And the Labour and Green candidates got more votes than he did last time round so many locals clearly think it’s time for him to go.
Well maybe you need to start talking to other people.
The Tasman electorate was Labour from 1972 to 1990 when it was won by Nick Smith, he held it for two elections before heading to Nelson
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tasman_(New_Zealand_electorate)#1990_election
He then won the Nelson electorate in 1996 which hes held ever since, a couple of points to note is that his lowest voting turnout was 2017 when he only got 40% of the vote plus prior to Nick Smith Labour had held that seat since 1957
So you and your friends may not like him but enough people certainly do
Reading comprehension does not seem to be your strong point. You have not rebutted Prickles’ comment at all. Nick Smith’s share of the vote went down by 12.13% and the combined vote of the Labour and Green’s candidates was higher than Nick’s.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_(New_Zealand_electorate)#2017_election
Only 40.69% of the Nelson voters voted for him, and 53.97% for Labour+Greens but they were ignored. This wrong should be corrected in September, don’t you agree?
wow, Matt Lawrey really jumped up for the Greens.
And Nick Smith last gained in % support in 2008. Going down ever since (although one was almost level). Wonder if it's a demographic change in the electorate.
Quite a few regulars on this site are in the Nelson area. I can’t comment.
"Only 40.69% of the Nelson voters voted for him, and 53.97% for Labour+Greens but they were ignored. This wrong should be corrected in September, don’t you agree?"
I agree, ignoring that many votes is not good at all.
Maybe a power sharing model oer something could be instigated or maybe STV could give a clearer decision.
Selecting electorate mps via STV or similar isn't a bad idea.
From what I can gather from speaking to people across the political spectrum here at the top of the South (not just my friends and family – some of whom, incidentally, are blue to the depths of their souls – family that is, not friends so much) even the blue ones think that nick smith has passed his use-by date. Of course when he is at the market he surrounds himself with sycophants. He’s not so keen in taking the time to speak to anyone with a different perspective on what is important. He does, however, deign to speak to anyone slightly red or green who may enable him to get his photo in the local paper. Many locals are embarrassed to have him “representing” us. The only person nick smith represents is nick smith.
Just a asde, PR, when I got a reverse mirror view of my back, I was astonished to see how old age had brought on hairiness, almost as much as the chest. Have you checked your own back lately? I suspect that you may have already grown those hairs you offer on condition. Or they will soon appear anyway. You may then consider yourself as paying a debt.
Ahh see I wrote my hair back not my back hair because I don't need any help growing my back hair
When they talked about growing hair where there was none before they never mentioned the back, shoulders, nose or ears…
Yes… Every so often, one needs to put ones reading glasses on when looking in the mirror.
Whatever form of election we have, it will result in voters who supported the losing parties "being ignored". So what?
Just because thats the way its always been doesn't mean it always has to be that way
According to the simplistic belief about democracy, up to 49% of the voters are ‘ignored’ at any given time (and sometimes more). In your thinking, it is wrong to ignore 44.4% of the voters but is it ok to then ignore 36.9% of the voters?
You sound like a semi-utilitarian.
Feel free to read/re-read my Post: https://thestandard.org.nz/mmp-mark-ii/
As I said:
"This election it looks like Labour will be a one term govt and as much as I'll enjoy the wailing and gnashing of teeth of the left (and I will) it'll still be a really large percentage of voters that're now ignored."
I don't want a really large percentage of voters ignored
MMP is a step in the right direction but not a magic bullet. The FPP mentality is still strong, partly because it underpins the status quo.
Contrary to common belief, irrespective of who’s in Government, nobody is more or less ignored and status quo prevails, by and large. This is good and bad because there are definitely members of (our own as well as the global) society who are literally on the cliff’s edge or are falling between the cracks. Nobody seems to give a rat’s arse because they all are too busy looking at and appeasing the ‘majority’ or the ‘centre’.
This next election is basically a FPP election. Labour (maybe the Greens sneak in) v National (with a couple of Act seats), NZ (the media?) just doesn't seem to "get" MMP
I mean I'm legit in wanting to see National and the Greens compromise to work together or Labour and Act or even National and Labour (they have more in common than differences)
I just think that no party has all the answers, National need some prompting from the left, the Greens need some conservatives to smooth out the edges etc etc
I believe there is more cooperation and collaboration going on than the SMS make us believe. It is in the MSM’s interest to magnify differences and contrast these as insurmountable fault lines. The public seems to swallow this without choking. Interestingly, and dare I say it, many political blogs and their commentariats seem to be even worse …
Your statement pretty much defines you as a idiot politically.
I’d say that the probability of NZF getting back in approaches certainty – simply because they are small targeting their audience. Of course that is why their audience doesn’t get picked up in polling. Cynical buggers those NZF voters – they don’t talk to pollsters and never really have. The small audience is course why the Nats are gunning for them again – but using the same tactic and pretext as last time. FFS how stupid are those impotent dildos?
And what rough edges? Problem with the greens is that politically they don’t have them. It makes it hard for them to develop a ‘voice’. And BTW: conservationist parties of the type you’re wanting basically don’t exist politically. Offhand I can think of about 8 in my lifetime. They lose their deposits.
The important difference between National and Labour is that Labour thinks longer term and is more fiscally prudent on a long term basis. No point in trying to do what National does of developing a beneficiary bashing strategy as National does if all that means is that the opportunities are closed off for their kids. Cutting taxes for Labour is what you do AFTER you manage to grow the whole economy rather than just giving to their donors to squander. etc..
In my opinion National are short-term accountants who can’t think past their own wallets and their prejudices, and who hate to invest in a future. They are inherently economic wastrals because they selfishly don’t consider the whole of our future together.
In other words, if Labour headed down your proposed path, then I’d have a great deal of satisfaction in raising a revolution. It is the reason why Shearer was a darling of the right and something that a lot of us helped kick out.
Well as the self-proclaimed worlds greatest sy-sop I bow to your greater knowledge in all things political
[lprent: self-proclaimed worlds greatest sy-sop. That is an outright lie. Banned until October 2021 – unless you make a public abject apology or find evidence that I actually said or wrote that phrase.
From my memory this was just some dumbarse meme made up by one of the fools from kiwiblog. And you have had similar bans for this before. ]
impotent dildos ?
impotent dildos – they vibrate all over the place saying that they have a purpose and a reason for existence, but never actually even try to do something about achieving it. Instead other people waste far too much time on them.
I don't want a really large percentage of voters ignored
Oh, it's worse than that. The binning of their votes effectively redistributes their vote share to parties they didn't vote for. That's the whole basis of National trying to drive NZF below the threshold, eg suppose a hypothetical example of 100 votes, of which National gets 46 and 10 votes are wasted. National goes from having 46 out of 100 votes to 46 out of 90, so its vote share goes from 46% to 52% and a ruling majority. That's the unspoken reason for National and Labour setting the threshold so high in the first place.
QED
So what can be done in this situation to nullify that effect?
Good question! My own approach is "A plague a' both your houses" and not vote for either of them, but it's probably not an approach with wide appeal…
That could be a hoot, imagine Act, NZFirst and the Greens being able to form govt![laugh laugh](https://cdn.ckeditor.com/4.11.3/full-all/plugins/smiley/images/teeth_smile.png)
– 5% helps stop loony extremists get in to Parliament. Doesn't stop them, but it helps.
– doing deals is completely part of the cooperative nature of MMP
– bringing in one or two MPs with deals can however add a bit of spice to a government, and even one or two good big concepts. Painful as it was, we wouldn't have merged Auckland without it.
– National MPs know which way their bread is buttered. There's only the Alliance to look to on that lesson. They have a really good chance at winning this year – unusually after only one term and new leadership.
Are the Greens and NZF, or for that matter TOP, loony extremists?
Greens and New Zealand First got in over 5%.
They cater to a small fringe each, but they're not completely loony.
Loony is in the eye of the beholder 😉
Thankfully it was in the eye of the Royal Commission who recommended the MMP threshold as well.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Royal_Commission_on_the_Electoral_System#Recommendations
Good work there.
Thankfully some sense between the Commission and the whole of Parliament.
Interesting five recommendations that I had forgotten about.
The Commission unanimously recommended the adoption of mixed member proportional, with a threshold of 4% and that a referendum be held before or at the 1987 election.
They also recommended that the Māori seats be abolished, with Māori parties instead receiving representation if they did not pass the threshold.
That the number of MPs raise to 120 (although they considered 140 would be ideal, they realised that it would receive too much public backlash).
The term of Parliament be raised to four years.
The Commission recommended that citizens initiated referendums not be implemented. However, they were in 1993.
In essence, no recommendations were adopted since the only one adopted was in itself a compromise position over MP numbers.
Despite reviews and reports, nothing much changes in NZ politics. Steady as she goes …
Loony is in the eye of the beholder
It's amazing how many people don't seem to get that.
If the Greens and NZF were below 5% as some pundits predict for September 2020 was my starting point. Funnily enough, when some political questionnaire came out in 2017, I was closest to TOP, they said. I was surprised at that; so definitely not loony!
I’m not frightened by the NZF left faction, and the Greens when not reduced to their authoritarian rump are also fine with me as partners.
It's quite an extremist conformity view that you have to have at least 1 in 20 of your fellow citizens to share a similar set of beliefs in order to not be labelled a loony extremist.
Me, I'd be happier holding off labeling someone a loony extremist until those sharing their set of beliefs falls below 1 in 120 of the population.
44% are ignored, yet 56% aren't? Sounds like democracy to me.
On the money, IFL. The Nat voting centre-right are disciplined enough to recognise that they have to accommodate their factions within the party. That's why there is a bit of a move to the right in their pronouncements, and candidate selection, to shore up their support there.
Labour supported merging Auckland’s councils, and the Nats led most of the work on it with Rodney as a convenient figleaf. Would have happened without his party.
Maybe. It wouldn't have looked like this.
Without a convenient yellow figleaf they would have had to acknowledge more of the extreme elements as their own party’s agenda. Much like charter schools, etc. Guess that may have been unpalatable enough to discard. As it was, they did not go through with subsequently privatising Watercare.
If "looney extremists" are what some voters want why shouldn't they get into parliament. NZ is deemed to be a democracy when all is said and done. Better to have a zero threshold and let the chips fall where they may. The high 5% threshold benefits only the status quo.
Today's "looney extremist " party may well be tomorrow's majority party.
And I would agree with you, once they've got the credibility and policy-sense to get to 5%.
You are demonstrating an attitude that, I am sorry to say, is closer to a National Party ethos than that of The Green Party, Labour or even NZ First. National are careful about what they say in public, but their policies and decisions when in government have demonstrated they are prepared to write off a large segment of our population. Labour and the Green Party have demonstrated that they are about all New Zealanders – they want thriving businesses to create the equal opportunities that National only pays lip service to. NZ First has positioned itself as being between National and other parties – the 'keep them honest'" mantra that worked well for "Captain Sensible". All three however are looking to govern for all New Zealanders. If we truly believe in equal opportunity, respect for others, then we must accept that our personal views will not be held by all. To promote a system for our elections that seeks to make it hard for new parties to start, or to exclude smaller parties due to an arbitrary level of votes that they have to achieve, is in my view destructively elitist. Your attitude towards NZ First is disrespectful to a large number of New Zealanders , and essentially bordering on being anti-democratic. I appreciate that many see politics as if it is a card game – it has meaning for most New Zealanders that is beyond that level; do not demean whatever party you support by effectively saying that some people matter more than others.
Well said!
FIFY
The Greens just don't have a compelling electorate candidate for Auckland Central. Nikki Kaye is just a really, really good electorate MP.
The Greens could propose a more attractive deal in Nelson.
Nick Smith is finally down to a reachable majority of 4,000 – with a running start, a pole vault and a favorable wind.
2017
Nick Smith 14,966
Rachel Boyack 10,956
Matt Lawrey 8,324
Nelson is the place to secure the Greens future in Parliament, if Labour really needs it.
I'd be very surprised if the PM goes for any deal anywhere though.
Yeah Nelsons probably the best option, once he retires that is. I've been up to Nelson at Christmas time the last few years and Nick Smith just seems really popular (this was at the Nelson market to be fair) so many people at his tent and hardly ayone else at the others
He has delivered for the Nelson area like the proverbial milkman.
That Waimea Dam is one of his biggest deliverables. Sure it's going over budget – what major infrastructure doesn't? It's a real region-changer.
A great transfer of wealth. Make his party donors proud.
I'm thinking, "flies" and remembering the Nick Smith sculpture made from cow manure.
I don’t think so either but I think it is largely irrelevant for two reasons:
One, will the electorate in question actually understand the ‘hint’, ‘suggestion’, ‘guidance’, or ‘instruction’ to vote for their non-preferred candidate to change the chances (possible outcome) of a certain coalition deal in Wellington?
Two, voters are free to vote in the way they see fit and nobody, not even the PM, can make them vote in another way, thankfully.
Epsom seems to be the only electorate so far that has shown enough political nous to pull it off successfully. Barry Coates and David Parker had 9,852 votes combined, which could have been used to try thwarting the National/ACT deal.
It's Christmas time, turkeys.
/
https://twitter.com/nicktolhurst/status/1231168412266749952
Yep, Lush are doing something similar.
Sanders storms Nevada. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bernie-sanders-wins-nevada-caucuses-takes-national-democratic-lead-2020-02-22
This is good news for Trump
Truly foolish comment. Are you a member of the Democratic National Committee, perchance?![no no](https://cdn.ckeditor.com/4.11.3/full-all/plugins/smiley/images/thumbs_down.png)
Seriously? You don't think Trump wants to go up against Saunders? Of course he does, so this is good news to Trump.
Heck, even Pooters agrees with you.
Dunno about Saunders, but he certainly wouldn't want to go against Sanders. Trump fears Bernie almost as much as the corrupt and delusional DNC fears him.
Trump knows, just as well as you and everyone else knows, that in every metric, Bernie Sanders outperformed Trump in 2016. The DNC installed the unlikeable and unelectable Clinton instead.
Incorrect. Trump wants to against a socialist that honeymooned in Russia, supported the Sandinistas, recently had a heart attack, millionaire that owns three homes (but rich people are bad), wants to take away peoples healthcare that they like and replace with a health care system that he doesn't know how much will cost or how to implement it
Trump would have had problems with Gabbard but the DNC took care of that, the only candidate Trump would like to go against more would be Warren
a socialist that honeymooned in Russia,
That is wrong…how, exactly?
supported the Sandinistas,
Whereas you support the Contra terror squads illegally armed and supported by the United States?
recently had a heart attack,
He's a lot fitter than Trump.
millionaire that owns three homes (but rich people are bad),
Don't think he said all rich people are bad. His critique is more analytical and intelligent than your portrayal of it.
wants to take away peoples healthcare
<snip rest of ignorant Leighton Smith-level ranting>….
That is wrong…how, exactly?
– What do you think Trumps ads are going to be, add in Bernie praising Castro, thinking bread lines are a good thing, potentially Russia interference (ironic really), Trumps problem is going to be what not to attack Bernie on
Whereas you support the Contra terror squads illegally armed and supported by the United States?
– Um what?
He's a lot fitter than Trump.
– You and I both don't know that but what we do know is Bernie had a heart attack on the campaign trail and there hasn't been any suggestion of Trump not being physically up to the job
Don't think he said all rich people are bad. His critique is more analytical and intelligent than your portrayal of it.
No thats true, he just doesn't think billionaires should exist which is interesting given that of the 10 richest people in the USA most seem to be democrats (or at least vote that way)
https://patch.com/new-jersey/pointpleasant/forbes-400-3-nj-billionaires-among-richest-america
wants to take away peoples healthcare
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/23/health/private-health-insurance-medicare-for-all-bernie-sanders.html
lol
yeah, he just takes his annual physical in unscheduled instalments.
Now, maybe he just needed viagra, or maybe it'll be another weird story in a hundred years from now like Grover Cleveland getting secret cancer surgery on a boat.
Thats it?
There hasn't been any reasonable suggestion he physically isn't calpable of being up to the job and being that the media breathlessly report and each and everything little he thing he does and then blow it out of proportion doesn't that strike you as telling
I mean it'd be different if he had a heart attack or something…
well, that and the fact the his medical report said he was the same height as Obama, for all we know the fucker could be dead and they're pulling a Weekend at Bernie's.
The "socialist/communist" attack line is dead in the water. I mean, wasn't Obama a communist too? It's been robbed of any impact by simple over use.
Anyway.
Assuming no fuckery bringing about a brokered convention, and hopefully no assassination ( And yes, I think that has to remain on the table of possibilities given the record of entrenched liberal power around the world…what…you reckon they'll only ever "off" brown skinned dudes?!), Trump will lose very heavily to Sanders for the simple reason he cannot tack to the left of Sanders with his rhetoric as he did with Clinton.
Trump will lose very heavily to Sanders for the simple reason he cannot tack to the left of Sanders with his rhetoric as he did with Clinton.
Yes I agree. The admittedly small sample of Trump voters I have talked with, all without exception were well aware of his shortcomings as a human being. While Trump does have his hard core supporters, and the electorate is very polarised at present, I still don't think they're enough on their own.
You are correct, while the DNC will bank on Sanders losing to Trump, I suspect the US electorate may well grievously disappoint them.
Sorry but I disagree and heres why: Its the economy…you know the rest
https://www.thebalance.com/us-economic-outlook-3305669
Its good
https://www.statista.com/statistics/194151/unemployment-rate-of-african-americans-in-the-us-since-1990/
Very good
https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2019/sep/26/west-virginia-republican-party/unemployment-women-lowest-point-almost-70-years/
Very good
Hell he could just play this:
I mean its not just me saying it:
https://www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/jobs-market-gangbusters-trump-200207161459641.html
https://www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/economy-created-whopping-266000-jobs-month-191206133402185.html
Yes the economy is the strong play at the moment. There are many complex reasons for this and almost none of them to do with Trump. On the other hand he does get credit for being the first US President to confront the CCP on the economic front.
Plus the endless Democrat Russiagate delusions, the weak Ukrainian impeachment debacle, and now the threat of COVID19 have only strengthened his hand.
So yes he does have some real strengths. But most Americans in their heart of hearts would wish for a better person in the White House.
"But most Americans in their heart of hearts would wish for a better person in the White House."
No doubt
Trump would have had problems with Gabbard but the DNC took care of that,
I'm inclined to agree. In my view the DNC are running this election as a losing proposition, with the explicit intention of using it to knock out elements of the party they don't like. The last thing they want is someone they cannot control like Sanders, Yang or Gabbard actually winning.
I've got a lot of time for Gabbard and Yang, she went on Joe Rogan and he went on Ben Shapiro
Reasons to feel hopeful about America
No. 1: Max Blumenthal
Tuckers nailing it again
It's not unusual for Tucker to hit the nail on the head. It basically depends on the topic. On war, he's on point. On the bullshittery of liberal elites, he's on point. Immigration and other stuff…not so much.
Anyway. I'm not really awaiting responses from the liberal twats who bought into the Steele Dossier, the Russia Hoax and the Mueller as white knight bullshit – like, how they going to square this nonsense that's coming from the intelligence community now that both Trump and Sanders are Putin puppets?! 🙂
Sanders got hookers in Moscow, too? golly.
That the supposed shit on Trump, is it?
The obvious question that peeps who bought the kompromat line is this…
If Russian intelligence services had dirt on Trump, then how much more dirt do you think lies in the hands of the FBI and CIA?
I don't think there's a soul out there who would claim Trump is anything but a corrupt and venal expression of humanity…but who is more likely to have the ability to exercise leverage over him?
As a possible pointer, we might look to his foreign policy, how that stacks up against the rhetoric he spouted when running for office, and whether it favours Russian interests or US Intelligence Community interests.
Arming fascists in Ukraine. Attempting a coup in Venezuela. Killing the German/Russian pipeline deal. Arming head-choppers in Syria. Pulling out of Russia/US arms treaties. And etc.
Maybe the FBI and CIA have a problem with the concept of blackmailing potus, for some reason.
And try listing the way he fucked up NATO and handed over bases to Russian soldiers in Syria, and fucked the Kurds.
But rather than having this debate a fucking cheeto again, I've not seen anyone say Sanders is a Russian tool. Sure, I've seen suggestions that Russia fucking with the elections again is helping Sanders, but nothing in the vague ballpark of them having leverage over him.
The ground you've stood on these past years…wobble, wobble.
This from the guy who names the Steele Dossier and then appears to not recognise the reference.
The Steele Dossier was as shit smeared toilet paper. I said that at the time.
Maddow on MSNBC and all the other Russia Hoax pundits notwithstanding…plus the soggy pissed on mess that was the Mueller Report (you geddit?) and the bullshit impeachment that sought to resurrect elements of failed propaganda…it’s all only served to highlight the shit of both that dossier and subsequent ramblings and rantings.
But hey. You believed it all. Such is life.
Which is all irrelevant to your "That the supposed shit on Trump, is it?".
Which actually makes sense – I really can't understand how you regard the Mueller Report as a "soggy mess" when half a dozen people got sent to prison because of it. But if you're not bothering to refresh your memory or keep track of the news, then your sloganeering makes more sense. They're just bardic phrases, rather than accurate descriptions.
Name one person who received jail time as. a. direct. result. of. something revealed by Mueller and integral to accusations of collusion.
google. it. your. damned. self.
Not. a. one. 🙂
What was Flynn lying about again?
Not collusion.
lol
Wasn't Flynn lying about conducting negotiations with the Russian ambassador when Flynn wasn't part of the us govt?
What about Papadopoulos – what was he lying about?
The obvious question that peeps who bought the kompromat line is this…
If Russian intelligence services had dirt on Trump, then how much more dirt do you think lies in the hands of the FBI and CIA?
The Russian strategy may be even more complex then thought due to asymmetric behaviour. such as Surkov.
“It was the first non-linear war,” writes Surkov in a new short story, “Without Sky,” published under his pseudonym and set in a dystopian future after the “fifth world war”:
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/11/hidden-author-putinism-russia-vladislav-surkov/382489/
The explanation may be simpler in this sense; in a world where all nations are connected physically, socially and economically …. it is inevitable they will also influence each other politically.
Why would you expect otherwise?
Pretty sneaky those Russians to get both of them like that
Of the many sources I routinely touch base with, Carlson's often the best value.
No-one is all-seeing or perfect, but he's worth listening to.
I don't think hes beholden to anyone, hes his own man it seems
Sustainable NZ leader Vernon Tava allegedly asked his party secretary to 'doctor' membership records.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/02/sustainable-nz-leader-vernon-tava-accused-of-ordering-membership-records-doctored.html
Schadenfreude bath time. He (or his buddies) also doctored the parties online presence (FB) so detractors were blocked. Was not interested in folk asking hard questions, or having a conversation. Only co-opting others media for smearing Greenpeace & the Green Party with. And did I mention he’s got a problem with his hands…
And we have a winner.
https://twitter.com/magicmuggle01/status/1231470119177670656
Darn! He would have been the perfect candidate for either leader of ACT or president of Federated Farmers.
A must-read.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/opinion/119702448/in-case-you-havent-been-paying-attention-i-am-a-lefty-liberal-snowflake-treehugger?fbclid=IwAR2vcbnZoQJHJG21wAG5Oi4UP06HaB5aaCSgfKAVHbc1GJcEvl76GkMnf5c
Very good read, thanks!
From Syria to the Arctic.
//
The Yamal Peninsula contains some of the biggest known reserves of natural gas on the planet. This remote peninsula in the Russian Arctic extends for 700 kilometres into the Kara Sea, and now several pipelines, offshore gas fields, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals have made it their home. Those tens of millions of cubic metres of natural gas have attracted Russia's state-owned gas companies and several international investors; in 2008, Gazprom announced its Yamal Project, to unlock the region's hydrocarbons on a vast scale.
Yamal is also home to 15,000 people, 10,000 of whom are Nenets reindeer herders
Indigenous rights activists have also raised concerns about what this large-scale energy extraction could mean for the Nenets and other indigenous peoples of Russia's far north. Dmitry Berezhkov is a member of the Itelmen people from the Kamchatka Peninsula and the former vice-president of the Russian Association of Indigenous Peoples of the North (RAIPON), a Moscow-based NGO. Berezhkov says that he was pressured by the Russian security services in the capital into framing RAIPON as a threat to the state.
[…]
I spoke to Berezhkov about the consequences of natural gas exploitation for indigenous people in Russia's north. The interview has been edited for length and clarity.
Maxim Edwards: What does the future hold for the indigenous peoples of the Yamal Peninsula?
https://globalvoices.org/2020/02/20/pipeline-problems-for-indigenous-peoples-on-russias-yamal-peninsula/
Cardboard cut-out Poto Williams is great, ain't she?
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/119726574/governments-terrible-betrayal-of-stranded-afghan-interpreter