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Open mike 23/07/2022

Written By: - Date published: 6:00 am, July 23rd, 2022 - 184 comments
Categories: open mike - Tags:


Open mike is your post.

For announcements, general discussion, whatever you choose.

The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy).

Step up to the mike …

184 comments on “Open mike 23/07/2022 ”

  1. Robert Guyton 1

    "The cabbage white’s white wings reflect ultraviolet light, which we can’t see but the butterflies can. To our eyes the butterflies seem plain, drab, vanilla—but to each other, females are a gentle lavender and males shine with a deep royal purple. "

    https://baynature.org/article/plain-cabbage-white-butterflies-are-anything-but-ordinary/

  2. Lanthanide 2

    Hello all, long time, no comment. You might have seen me on interest.co.nz fighting the good fight in the comments section there, though.

    Anyway, I have gone through a profound maturation this year, and have been doing a hell of a lot of thinking about the world in general. I came across a twitter thread this morning, which consolidates and elaborates on everything I've been thinking about over the past 3 weeks, and I thought it was worth sharing here as this seems like the best audience:

    This just explains where we are in history so well, I think.

    I also think that Jacinda is a Teal leader, and that NZ is poised to be a leader in global Teal thinking this century, given our unique geographic location in the world, resource limitations and ecosystem, coupled with the indigenous culture that is an embodiment of resilience. Other indigenous cultures around the world also embody resilience, but in most other countries they've been much more repressed and marginalized than Maori have been in NZ (and we're actively trying to undo our harm – more Teal attitudes).

    The only thing that is going to get humanity through this century is everyone working together, and diversity of human creativity, thought and expression.

    • Robert Guyton 2.1

      Lanthanides are silvery white soft metals. I am in agreement with what you have posted, Lanthanide. I believe it reflects, curiously enough, the first post of the day 🙂

    • Patricia Bremner 2.2

      Welcome. Yes I have read you on interest.co.nz. Thanks for a hopeful start to the day, We do have troglodytes marching in three cities today, and your post is a hopeful antidote. yes

      • Lanthanide 2.2.1

        The Standard really should get with the times and have the possibility of a Thumbs Up reply to comments. It's pretty Standard (pun intended) everywhere else on the internet.

        I know that Lynn tried it once before already years ago – in fact I was the very person who suggested it that time, too. Go back and check Lynn if you don't believe me. The problem with the add-on you installed is that it allowed downvotes as well as upvotes, so people could troll etc. Just get a plugin or configure it to only allow upvoting. That problem is solved.

        In the mean time: yes

        • lprent 2.2.1.1

          It is easy enough to do. However I have a few other things that tend to be more important.

          The Standard got a brain transplant last night. Its currently booting off a USB. But it has a Ryzen 5700G upgrading the Ryzen 1700X.

          The actual problem at the time was the way that the votes were stored. It did nasty things to the amount of data access and slowing down putting up comments.

          But I’ll have a look at it.

        • weka 2.2.1.2

          fixing the mobile commenting bug is the priority imo.

      • Bearded Git 2.2.2

        According to Stuff there are 1000 trogs in Akl with hundreds in CHCH and Wellywood…..not exactly a revolution.

  3. Robert Guyton 3

    From today's Otago Daily Times. I had my say near the end of the article 🙂

    New inclusive campaign guidelines for local body elections have been called an "abomination" threatening free speech, but many candidates in the South have endorsed the call for respectful debate.

    The guide encourages candidates to consider how they can respect and uphold the Treaty of Waitangi, value te reo Maori, reframe debates to avoid racism and race-baiting, avoid perpetuating stereotypes and identify actions they would take in office to support diversity and "build belonging".

    It refers directly to debates about Three Waters and Maori wards, "which have, at times, become derogatory to Maori".

    Michael Laws

    Michael Laws

    The guidance was developed by Local Government New Zealand (LGNZ), written in partnership with the Human Rights Commission, and included comment from race relations commissioner Meng Foon.

    Otago regional councillor Michael Laws called the guide an abomination – it was a "biased attempt to stop freedom of speech and thought around Three Waters, around Maori wards, around co-governance, around the Government’s so-called reform agenda".

    "It seeks to dissuade those who dissent from this woke nonsense from standing for office," Cr Laws said.

    His colleagues were divided.

    Cr Gary Kelliher said it was an attempt by LGNZ to "tailor their perfect council candidate" and Cr Hilary Calvert said "this smells of staff of the relevant organisations becoming involved in political matters".

    However, Cr Gretchen Robertson said running a campaign that put other people down was weak and "an attempt to deflect attention from your own inadequacies".

    Cr Alexa Forbes said: "I’m sorry that we have to be reminded of our obligations and I look forward to the day that we don’t have to be."

    Cr Michael Deaker said some people might call the guidelines woke.

    "I see them as respectful and well designed for New Zealand in 2022".

    LGNZ chief executive Susan Freeman-Greene said a sometimes-toxic environment had built up over time and "shifting what’s acceptable – and what is not – will take more than one election cycle".

    Candidates could debate important issues robustly while upholding the dignity of fellow candidates, she said.

    Aaron Hawkins

    Aaron Hawkins

    Dunedin Mayor Aaron Hawkins said making elections safer for a broader range of candidates should be encouraged.

    "Sadly, we are seeing an increase in the uglier elements of public debate, including racism.

    "Those of us who aren’t the target of that have an obligation to help shut it down."

    Dunedin city councillor Lee Vandervis said the campaigning advice was a patronising, bicultural straitjacket that claimed diversity, but which pushed Maori speech and sensitivity agendas.

    He noted it did not dwell on such things as value for money, debt and rates, "which are of interest to voters and should be the real focus of elected representatives".

    Fellow councillor Sophie Barker said the document reflected how troubling some behaviour had become, especially online.

    She did not recall racist rhetoric during her 2019 campaign, but did encounter sexism.

    "On my first night campaigning, while I was looking for a seat on stage, one of the candidates said I could sit on his knee any time," Cr Barker said.

    Cr Rachel Elder said the guidelines were great.

    "If we demean, belittle, label and personally attack people or people groups, we are not upholding the idea of democracy," Cr Elder said.

    Cr Steve Walker said supporting diversity and inclusion should be the default position of any worthy candidate.

    Cr Jules Radich said he was comfortable with the guidance.

    The Team Dunedin ticket he was leading had "asked for interaction with mana whenua".

    Dunedin mayoralty candidate Mandy Mayhem-Bullock said she wanted to see people from all walks of life on the council.

    Environment Southland councillor Robert Guyton said he felt Mr Foon had been proactive in alerting candidates to the activities of pressure groups, especially those opposed to Three Waters reform.

    "A great deal of the commentary around the claims made by these groups is certainly racist in nature," Cr Guyton said.

    At a glance

    Tips for fostering inclusion

    • Take time to engage with the Treaty of Waitangi by learning your local iwi history

    • Have a look at examples of partnership with manawhenua and Maori in local government

    • Attend cultural, ethnic and diverse public events

    Use multilingual greetings

    • Attend community meetings in diverse settings, including marae, mosques, churches and migrant centres

    • Monitor your social media

    • Be an "upstander" against racist and discriminatory comments

    • Use inclusive language and avoid stereotyping

    – Source: Local Government New Zealand

    https://www.odt.co.nz/news/dunedin/new-campaign-guidelines-out

  4. Molly 4

    For those who think naming unevidenced medical treatment for minors as "affirming healthcare" makes everything hunky-dory, a well-written Substack article explains why not.

    https://lisaselindavis.substack.com/p/letter-from-finland-and-sweden

    They read: “The NBHW deems that the risks of puberty suppressing treatment with GnRH-analogues and gender-affirming hormonal treatment currently outweigh the possible benefits, and that the treatments should be offered only in exceptional cases.”

    Finland’s Council for Choices in Health Care (COHERE) came to almost the exact same conclusion a year earlier, noting, through a translation: “The first-line intervention for gender variance during childhood and adolescent years is psychosocial support and, as necessary, gender-explorative therapy and treatment for comorbid psychiatric disorders.” And: “In light of available evidence, gender reassignment of minors is an experimental practice.” Gender reassignment medical interventions “must be done with a great deal of caution, and no irreversible treatment should be initiated,” COHERE wrote.

    These guidelines were in contrast to those proffered by the World Professional Association of Transgender Health (WPATH), an advocacy group made up of activists, academics, lawyers, medical and mental health care providers, which creates “standards of care” that many providers elect to follow. WPATH, which will soon issue its 8th iteration of its SOC, is lowering recommended ages for blockers, hormones and surgeries, and adding chapters on medicine for those with gender identities like non-binary or eunuch. (WPATH did not respond to a request for comment.)

  5. pat 5

    Playing with some numbers.

    The last time NZ could be considered (arguably) a sustainable society would have been pre colonisation….there were no imports required (that we know of, if there were they were minimal) and everything needed to support society was provided domestically…(even so there were extinctions and environmental damage)….the population of NZ pre colonisation is estimated to have been around 100,000.

    The first wave of Maori settlement is thought to have occurred around 1100 AD. If we estimate that the first wave comprised around 1000 souls (over a period of voyages) then what rate of population growth occurred?

    Around 0.66% per annum

    If that growth rate had continued until today what would NZs population be now (realising that it is not necessarily sustainable)

    Around 300,000

    We are 5.1 million.

    • weka 5.1

      are you meaning economically sustainable?

      • pat 5.1.1

        No….environmentally and societally sustainable.

        Ultimately economics is simply a measure of the above.

        I should clarify…it depends upon whether you take economically viable to mean financially viable…..they are two seperate things.

        • Descendant Of Smith 5.1.1.1

          Hardly a sustainable society when life expectancy was 28-30 years – similar to France and Spain at the time. It was barely survival.

  6. Robert Guyton 6

    "The swan species lived between 16 and 19 million years ago on Lake Manuherikia, a massive ancient lake which covered most of modern Central Otago."

    Central Otago was a "massive ancient lake"?

    Cool.

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/471464/ancient-swan-fossil-discovered-at-otago-dig-site

  7. Robert Guyton 7

    Martyn Bradbury goes ape on it:

    "That’s why I argue that Fortress Aotearoa is simply a matter of when not if.

    The current political spectrum in New Zealand can not radically adapt fast enough to adopt the changes we must make if we are to survive the climate crisis. It will require a radical Political Movement that elects a Party to implement Fortress Aotearoa…

    • Move away from intensive farming and look to become domestically self sustainable in terms of food.
    • Immediately ban all water exports.
    • Empower local communities to make local decisions and set up resilience programs.
    • 5 year Parliamentary term so Governments can actually plan for change.
    • Upper and Lower House (Upper House 50-50 split between Māori & Pakeha that can hold up legislation if unhappy about Treaty issues)
    • Massive investment into R&D from Government with the understanding research is to benefit NZ first before sold offshore.
    • Large scale increase in Navy, Army & Airforce.
    • Mass limiting of tourism numbers with huge increased tourist taxes.
    • Only citizens can vote.
    • Sustainable immigration and an end to exploitative migrant workers.
    • Resettlement Programms for all pacific island neighbours.
    • Increase refugee in take to 10 000 per year
    • Fully funded public services focused on real welfare of people.
    • Mass Green housing rebuild.
    • 100% renewable energy for entire country.
    • Massive tree planting across previous farming land.
    • Wholesale re-write of state services act to end commercial values.
    • Investment into basic pharmaceutical production.
    • Financial transaction tax
    • Wealth tax
    • Multinational tax
    • Inheritance tax
    • Capitalist monopolies in energy, transport and finance have to be brought into public ownership and control. They should be subject to democratic plans drawn up by the whole community. Workers should have much stronger decision making powers within them.
    • All economic sectors to be made take steps needed to decarbonise the economy as much as is needed to reach zero net emissions by 2030.
    • Free and frequent public transport on electric buses and/or trains in all main cities.
    • Health care and education for life should be free and universally accessible.
    • Welfare, pensions, child allowances, should be universal wherever possible.
    • Public housing at fixed and affordable rents should be a right of all not just the desperately poor.
    • All workers should have a right to a job and the workweek reduced with no loss of pay to make that possible.
    • Local communes should be supported for control and delivery of as many functions of the centralised state as possible – including housing, education, health care.
    • Local communes to support cooperative forms of production of food, solar and wind energy, electric transport, and media.

    On a rapidly warming planet, NZ will increasingly be the life boat for Earth and the tyranny of our distance will become our blessing.

    Pretending that we can ‘stop’ the climate crisis cascade is sophistry, we require radical reform and adaptation now."

    https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2022/07/21/the-apocalyptic-heat-wave-in-europe-is-a-climate-warming-hoax-that-will-never-impact-us/

    • weka 7.1

      he probably shouldn't have been undermining the Greens all these years, eh.

      Pretending that we can ‘stop’ the climate crisis cascade is sophistry, we require radical reform and adaptation now.

      Not sure what he means there tbh. There is huge benefit in averting the worst of climate change. Runaway CC won't be survivable in NZ even if we were a fortress. I agree about radical change, and mitigation and adaptation are still two sides of the same regen coin.

      • RedLogix 7.1.1

        Bradbury is a loose cannon. He's basically describing Soviet Russia.

      • Bearded Git 7.1.2

        Agreed about Bomber's attacks on the Greens Weka. I think he is attacking the personnel and not the policies when he makes these attacks which is really dumb.

        • weka 7.1.2.1

          I still don't get why it's so hard to see the Greens as pathway to better politics. Once they get meaningful power in government, it opens the door for other parties on the left to get in.

          Own goal from the leftie dudes.

          • Sanctuary 7.1.2.1.1

            Because they are idiots, that us why. Look at this nonsense with Shaw. Factions of a faction bickering about factions.

            • RedLogix 7.1.2.1.1.1

              The timing is correct. This was signaled when they passed the co-leader requirement for one female and one of any other gender amendment some months back.

              Until then they could not get rid of Shaw because there were literally no other credible male candidates. Now they can purge the party of all but a few token white males altogether.

          • Lanthanide 7.1.2.1.2

            If you look at the Twitter thread I posted earlier, the Greens are literally stuck on Green thinking.

            We need Teal thinking for this century.

            They're close and better than the alternative parties, but not quite right.

            Jacinda is a Teal leader of an Amber party. I'd say Maori Party are Green-Teal but they aren't a mainstream party, yet.

            • weka 7.1.2.1.2.1

              Only five tweets in and this is very good. A big missing piece of the political puzzle too.

    • Bearded Git 7.2

      Yes but what are we going to do after breakfast Bomber?

      "immediately ban all water exports"….the Clutha alone puts out roughly 300,000 litres a second (it varies between 200 and 600) or a million litres every three seconds.

      We have oodles of H2O….providing it is not exported in plastic bottles what is the problem?

      • weka 7.2.1

        at a guess, impact on the ground water, river and river bank ecologies, and the coastal ecologies around the outlet (extending for quite some way). We already interrupt much of that via hydro.

        I'm not averse to NZ shipping water globally for aid reasons. Can't see how it can be done for profit reasons without becoming yet another problem of capitalism.

    • weka 8.1

      holy shit that's good.

    • joe90 8.2

      Had me at the lift out vege conditioner.

      • Poission 8.2.1

        Thought that was innovative.

        • joe90 8.2.1.1

          From a time before bean counters ran the world.

          • Poission 8.2.1.1.1

            Planned obsolesence.

            • weka 8.2.1.1.1.1

              is this a manufacturing dilemma? If you make a product that lasts 40 years, and within five years everyone has one, how do you keep the business going?

              • Poission

                Yes and no.The older manufacturing model,had service (repairs and maintenance) where after warranty replacement parts etc,would be an income stream for the dealers.Now it is cheaper in some instances to replace either the whole appliance,or a substantive component.

                Also now people seem inclined to buy and looks rather then function.

              • Lanthanide

                You change your company to produce items with a 30 year or lifetime warranty. You supply full technical diagrams for how to make all replacement parts, including 3d printing and metal fabrication instructions.

                You look at what Red Hat does – they sell support for open source Linux. Linux is literally free, but Red Hat still makes money because using technology is hard.

    • Robert Guyton 8.3

      CFC-free?

      • Poission 8.3.1

        Lovelock did not sail on the Shackelton for another decade,and a further decade for Molina to understand the chemical reactions.

        20 years previous at the Yalta conference,Churchill (and others) had to be sprayed down with DDT to rid them of bedbugs.

  8. joe90 9

    My money's on the pissed Russian squadies.

    • joe90 9.1

      Mentions of Russian battalions being surrounded beginning to look like they may be true.

      • Stuart Munro 9.1.1

        They need prisoners to trade for the return of Ukrainians in Russian filtration camps gulags.

  9. georgecom 10

    I see some "freedom and rights" people are back out protesting today. I wondered what covid restrictions they are complaining about now. Maybe the recommendation to wear masks inside public spaces or get a covid booster. Pretty much nothing there to continue their muddled thinking against. But no, instead they are protesting violence, cost of living and a stretched health system.

    So what exactly is impinging on their 'freedoms' and their 'rights' amongst that list. Nowt I can see. Another set of scatter gun issues which have little to do with freedom and rights, another catch all get some publicity stunt for Brian Tamaki maybe. If they want to protest against violence, fine, go and protest outside gang pads and make it clear to them. If they want to protest against cost of living, go and protest outside the Russian embassy. If they want to protest against a stretched health system, go and protest outside the homes and workplaces where people refuse to wear masks or have an issue getting covid or influenza vaccinations.

  10. Patricia Bremner 11

    I see the "marchers" of today from Destiny Church and the Coalition wanted to create mayhem, but not violence. Get a dictionary. About 1800 people all up in three centres

    • Anne 12.1

      Yes. He laid it out so that anyone with half a brain could understand. Why oh why aren't these people given maximum opportunities to inform the public.

  11. Sanctuary 14

    What a bunch of chumps the Green party is.

    • Cricklewood 14.1

      Seems exceptionally daft to cut James Shaw off at the knees at this point… it's going to create an absolute media circus if it ends up a contest…

      • Sanctuary 14.1.1

        I will predict that come this time next week Shaw will still be leader, the Green party will have spent a week being excoriated in the media and the party will drop below 5% in the next poll. Typical Greens internecine politics – posturing tactics without a wider strategy.

        • pat 14.1.1.1

          Self destruction

          • Alan 14.1.1.1.1

            the 16 year old's don't like James, so there you go.

          • Robert Guyton 14.1.1.1.2

            Does this even faintly, vaguely, slightly equate with the shamozzle that was the National Party's revolving leader experience?

            No.

            Not a patch on it.

            Minor ripple, yet DESTRUCTION!!

            • pat 14.1.1.1.2.1

              self-destruction

              /ˌsɛlfdɪˈstrʌkʃ(ə)n/

              noun

              1. behaviour that causes serious harm to oneself.

                "problem gamblers on a path to self-destruction"

              • Robert Guyton

                Minor tests of integrity build resilience and inner strength.

                Just because other parties hide/avoid/refuse to engage in the natural selection process, doesn't mean The Greens have to follow suite.

                In any case, the Right despise the type of thinking that has interrupted the leader's BAU and when James turns them out, the blueies will unconsciously cheer him on!

                Win-win.

                • pat

                  The public show of disunity has damaged the party regardless whether Shaw re runs and is reselected or not…..and I’d add I would not be surprised at all if he didnt rerun .

                  • Robert Guyton

                    Disunity?

                    You mean, The Greens should have presented a National Party-like pretence at unity?

                    Not the sort of politics I support.

                  • weka

                    The public show of disunity has damaged the party regardless whether Shaw re runs and is reselected or not

                    Why? There was a leadership challenge last year too.

                    • Robert Guyton

                      Yes there was. Creating a healthy challenge, easily met, by James.

                      Rinse and repeat.

                    • pat

                      As there was with National….and a series previously with Labour…and in all instances they were detrimental to party support following.

                      However as you and Robert see no issue then you have nothing to worry about….obviously others disagree, myself included.

                    • Incognito []

                      National seems to be doing ok in the polls though …

                    • Robert Guyton

                      That's correct, pat, I am not worried. At all.

                    • pat

                      @ Incognito

                      …eventually. The difference being National (or Labour) have base support significantly above the 5% threshold.

                    • Incognito []

                      True, that. The only 2 political parties that are in this enjoyable position, which is a shame because it has a disproportionate influence on NZ politics.

                    • weka

                      As there was with National….and a series previously with Labour…and in all instances they were detrimental to party support following.

                      Except in both those cases Nat and Lab were in actual disarray. The GP isn't, this is more about strategy as far as I can tell, rather than the Greens not having a good co leader.

                      However as you and Robert see no issue then you have nothing to worry about….obviously others disagree, myself included.

                      the biggest concern I have is the degree to which lefties are freaking out and/or dissing the GP as we speak, and how much hay the MSM will make with that. As for the rest, I find dissent healthy (depending on how it is done. the dissenting MPs at the 2017 election handled it very badly).

        • Bearded Git 14.1.1.2

          It's a media beat up. Stuff said Shaw was "ashen faced" after the vote!!!

          Come off it. 70% of the delegates backed him. Just 32 people didn't. He will be massively backed by the members and will be leader at the next election.

    • observer 14.2

      Only a minority within the party, but I get your point.

      2023 could deliver a Labour/Green government. I hope so.

      But some would be happier with a National/ACT government, so they could have the righteous purity of protest. Cost of self-indulgence: one planet.

      • weka 14.2.1

        But some would be happier with a National/ACT government, so they could have the righteous purity of protest. Cost of self-indulgence: one planet.

        that's not it. It's that some people understand the urgency of climate change and think the current strategy is the wrong one. This is a legitimate position.

      • Jester 14.2.2

        I think the only person that could beat James Shaw in a leadership challenge would be Chloe. But does she want to be leader yet?

    • Grey Area 14.3

      What a bunch of chumps the Green party is.

      Yes.

      While the planet burns and drowns a faction of the Greens thinks it is so clever to play gender or sex politics because it is so much more important. Marama Davidson gets a free pass when she has done bugger all, but James Shaw (who doesn't thrill me) doesn't, even though he hasn't been allowed to do enough but has done more than bugger all.

      I'm not some rightwing concern troll. I have genuinely voted left my entire life starting with Values. I have been involved in the Greens as a member, a network convenor and a branch co-convener.

      But I have lost faith in the Greens. While I could see that climate collapse was the No 1 issue because it was about survival of the species and the opportunity to worry about a whole heap of other things, Marama Davidson wanted to reclaim the C word.

      I voted Red/Green last time because in my electorate I thought that was the most effective use of my vote, despite feeling the Greens had dropped the ball long ago.

      A party that thinks it crucial to have co-leaders who are female and other is no longer my party.

      So long and thanks for the fish.

      Now back to the work in my local community trying to help make it more resilient in the existential crisis we're neck deep in.

      • RedLogix 14.3.1

        You and I suspect Gareth Hughes.

        Loosing your political moorings like this sucks.

      • Robert Guyton 14.3.2

        I think you misunderstand the situation. The Greens embrace and test non-ordinary ideas. There is no-one better, in all of NZ politics, to weather this challenge to orthodox behaviour. James will rise to the challenge, regain his position and go from strength to strength. Had to happen. Will be a success. Most won't be able to understand what has happened.

        Imo.

        • RedLogix 14.3.2.1

          Looking at their current line-up the Greens seem to have a serious diversity problem. You should stand – you'd be perfect as the token white guy. devil

          • Robert Guyton 14.3.2.1.1

            In what way is James not perfect for that role?

            I wouldn't dream of challenging 🙂

            He'll fly in, unharmed.

            Annealed, sure, and tempered, so that's all good.

        • Grey Area 14.3.2.2

          No I don't think I misunderstand the situation Robert. I think you are gilding the lily. You are giving the Greens far too much credit.

          imo

          • Robert Guyton 14.3.2.2.1

            I prefer to give them credit, rather than stick, Grey Area; better to gee-up your ride, than apply the whip, imo.

  12. observer 15

    Brian Tamaki is talking about a new party … yet again:

    From RNZ:

    Tamaki told RNZ he will soon make an announcement regarding three minor parties forming a coalition. Tamaki said three minor parties have made the commitment to operate under a new umbrella.

    "I'm in talks with others. So it looks like there's going to be a new party on the block."

    Reminder: Tamaki's party (then called Vision NZ) got 0.15% of the vote at the election.

    Still, Luxon being asked if he rules them out would be entertaining.

  13. bwaghorn 16

    Wtf green party, kicking James Shaw out.

    • Robert Guyton 16.1

      He has to contest his position.

      He will fly in.

    • weka 16.2

      he hasn't been kicked out. They voted to reopen nominations which means he will face a leadership challenge. Like he did last year. It's just a bit different because they didn't get the nomination in on time I think.

      • Robert Guyton 16.2.1

        That's right, weka. Another cool head. Thank Gaia 🙂

        • observer 16.2.1.1

          Perhaps he will stay as leader, but that's not really the point.

          There have always been tensions, in any deal between 2+ parties, between those who say "get a better deal" and those who say "this is the best we can get". A story as old as coalitions, anywhere. Fine.

          But that is irrelevant here. It's not 2017-2020. It's not "Bargain harder than Winston Peters". It's a majority Labour government. Shaw gets as much or as little from Ardern as she wants. Leverage: nil.

          So what is it that the anti-Shaw people want him to do?

          • weka 16.2.1.1.1

            speak out more is one thing that comes up consistently. That applies to the whole party but particularly the leadership.

            There's also the idea that Shaw compromised too much and could have taken a better plan to Labour. I don't know where the truth lies with that, but anyone who thinks our current climate response is adequate is ill informed.

            • bwaghorn 16.2.1.1.1.1

              I guess one can yell and grandstand and look good and get nowhere, or you can get in the backrooms out of sight and get those from opposing sides to the table. Idealists dont belong in government.

              • weka

                don't particularly disagree with that, but it fails when considering climate change and that we are running out of time. We need radical change, and I don't think taking another decade to build power alongside Labour is the way to do it.

                Probably the most important thing that could happen now would be a strong voice on climate, esp holding Labour to account. Inside or outside of parliament, doesn't have to be the Greens. But it has to be someone.

                • Robert Guyton

                  From the point of view of someone like you weka, with your understanding of climate change, there is no government anywhere, acting with as much immediacy and effort as is needed, am I right?

                  To expect that James Shaw, leading a party with restricted influence, as The Greens are, to create radical change, is … admirable.

                  From what I've heard from "sources within Parliament", James Shaw is head and shoulders above any other player in that game, be they red, blue, green, whatever political/ideological colour you choose.

                  Given the circumstances (the reality of our situation) there is no one better than James.

                  He will retain/regain his position. He will not throw in the towel. Well-intentioned people will continue to criticise him for "not doing enough".

                  • Stuart Munro

                    It's an age old problem.

                    So, because you are lukewarm, and neither hot nor cold, I will spit you out of my mouth. Revelation 3:16

                    I don't dispute his work ethic, but I had more confidence in Russel & Matt.

                    Scrapping the male co-leadership requirement was risky and probably unsound in the long term, however appropriate it may be to find a place for Chloe.

                    An ignorant and hostile press won't make any transition easy.

                    • weka

                      which would be less of an issue if a chunk of the left stopped slagging of the greens every chance they get.

                  • weka

                    I think we need both. We need the hard grafters and pragmatists like Shaw who can make inroads into the mainstream. And we need more radical voices to shift the narrative. Best thing would be something akin to the shift XR achieved five years ago, but that opened up the proactive pathways for change, giving people clear vision of where we can go so that things work out. I don't know if the Greens can do that in NZ at this time or not.

                    Yes, NZ is doing well relative to many other countries. But it may not be enough. The issue is whether the risk now in leadership change is worth it. I don't know this either.

                    I have a post up that addresses some of this,

                    James Shaw and the Green Party co-leadership

                • Stuart Munro

                  if a chunk of the left stopped slagging of the greens every chance they get

                  Trust me, if I were doing that, you'd know.

                  • weka

                    I wasn't talking about you. I was pointing out that the MSM issues would be less of a problem if the Greens weren't also being attacked and undermined by the left.

      • Grey Area 16.2.2

        I'll probably regret this but why is it the white cis male who has faced multiple leadership challenges?

        • Robert Guyton 16.2.2.1

          Should he be immune?

        • weka 16.2.2.2

          I'll probably regret this but why is it the white cis male who has faced multiple leadership challenges?

          It's not. It's the person who is the more centrist in the party.

          • Grey Area 16.2.2.2.1

            The more centrist co-leader who just happens to be a white cis male. Bad combo.

            • weka 16.2.2.2.1.1

              I suppose there is a connection in that white men tend to be more centrist. But if Shaw wasn't centrist this wouldn't be an issue (centrist relative to his party, not relative to the current Overton Window in NZ).

              • KJT

                I doubt James Shaw is "centrist".
                Not from what I’ve seen.

                He knows how to work within the system and the limitations he has, to make progress. His achievements if you look are many, despite having little real power in Government with Labour's majority vote.

                I'm dissapointed that a proportion of Greens want to remove him, for someone more "shouty".

                But re-affirming the leadership is an example of robust Democratic process, that is sadly lacking in our other political parties.

                • weka

                  I said he's centrist within the party. There are plenty of people to the left of him politically, and more radical than him.

                  I said he's not centrist in NZ overton window terms. He's still to the left of the Labour party for instance.

                  • weka

                    but yeah, it's kind of not really that meaningful because most people will translate that into trad left/centrist/right frames and miss that the Greens are orthogonal to that line.

          • Incognito 16.2.2.2.2

            My impression is that with every major weather event, nationally or globally, and with every day passing with lack of action on CC, real or perceived, Shaw was becoming a bigger target. Had he done and achieved more he would have been a big target for some and had he done less he would have been a big target for others.

            I find it slightly ironic that the most democratic, transparent, and accountable political party in Aotearoa-New Zealand tends to get such a raw deal from the media and the public. It begs the question whether Kiwis are ready for empowerment and agency or whether they’d rather stick with the authoritarian status quo of National, ACT, and Labour.

            • weka 16.2.2.2.2.1

              Makes sense, people are scared, some will want a radical response, others a conservative one. Next year's election will be bloody interesting.

              If I thought the challenge was well planned and they had a good replacement, I'd probably be keen for Shaw to step aside and be Climate Minister* and bring in a more dynamic outspoken co-leader who will change the narrative. But I haven't seen anything yet to suggest it is well planned and that there is a good replacement.

              (*not lease because Climate Minister is a big job).

              • Incognito

                The ABS (Anything But Shaw) failed and the wheels blocked up.

                I’d love to see stronger narrative coming from both the Greens and Labour. Ardern does do really good speeches and there’s an underlying narrative, a sub-text, but even she doesn’t articulate the (?) vision as clear and compelling as I’d wish. My own (and only) conclusion is that the ‘vision’ and associated strategy is slowly crystallising and therefore cannot be framed yet as such (aka a work in progress).

                • weka

                  I don't understand why the Greens don't speak out more. Maybe we will see this next year? I hope it's not because they're truly being incrementalists.

                  My own (and only) conclusion is that the ‘vision’ and associated strategy is slowly crystallising and therefore cannot be framed yet as such (aka a work in progress).

                  Very good. I liked what Delahunty said about it not being about who might replace Shaw but who has a vision that can lead.

                  really feel the stories we can tell are crucial right now.

            • weka 16.2.2.2.2.2

              I find it slightly ironic that the most democratic, transparent, and accountable political party in Aotearoa-New Zealand tends to get such a raw deal from the media and the public. It begs the question whether Kiwis are ready for empowerment and agency or whether they’d rather stick with the authoritarian status quo of National, ACT, and Labour.

              I think most voters don't get the GP particularly well. And for sure they choose the status quo each year.

              • Grey Area

                I think most voters don't get the GP particularly well.

                Admittedly the media often negatively filter the Greens to the wider electorate but despite that I think a lot of voters get the Greens perfectly well.

                What some Green activists think is important (and it isn’t climate collapse) doesn’t resonate with most voters.

                • weka

                  Green activists don't think climate collapse is the most important?

                  People can still like what they see in the Greens and vote for them, without getting how the party works. As evidenced by the number of GP voters dismayed at what is going on, whereas many people who get the Greens are relatively unfazed and see it as normal democratic process.

                  Otoh, it may be a split along the lines of climate action has to step up now vs people ok with taking more time.

                  • Grey Area

                    Green activists don't think climate collapse is the most important?

                    I did say some. And from experience I believe some Greens are more interested in issues to with gender, sex, sexual orientation etc and not saving a dying planet.

                    I think some people do get the Greens but don't like what they see. It's not about not getting a democratic process.

                    Otoh, it may be a split along the lines of climate action has to step up now vs people ok with taking more time.

                    I think this could well be part of it. One of the reasons I pulled out of my then local branch only a few years ago was that many members didn't seem to see climate collapse as such an urgent issue as I did.

                    I switched to Extinction Rebellion and found that also had its own issues.

                    I now concentrate on community development and trying to help build resilience and sustainability.

                    I will likely party vote Green again because there is no alternative that comes close for me. But the party continually disappoints me and I've made my choice about where to put my energy.

                    • weka

                      That sounds wise Grey Area. I'm not actively involved in the party either, feeling that my energies are best placed elsewhere. Completely agree about the need for community development. At some point I hope this will meet parliamentary politics and then we might see real change.

                    • Robert Guyton

                      I feel much as you do (Grey Area & weka) and have acted similarly however I believe there is a role for people like us to champion The Greens at times of stress, rather than taking a swing at them whenever a challenging issue emerges. I guess I am a loyalist. Can't see much gain in eroding the foundations of my own house 🙂

  14. Visubversa 17

    Hopefully the Greens will have learned that having a leader commit political suicide just before an election is a really, really bad idea. I would not bet on it however.

    • alwyn 17.1

      Well, they didn't learn that it was a bad idea when Meteria Turei did it just before the 2017 election so why should they do so now?

      At least in 2017 they had Shaw to get them over the line to get back into Parliament. Without him I think they will be dead. They are starting to behave like the McGillicuddy Serious Party aren't they? That lot realised they were behaving like idiots though.

      • weka 17.1.1

        Well, they didn't learn that it was a bad idea when Meteria Turei did it just before the 2017 election so why should they do so now?

        It's pretty clear to those paying attention in the past five years that much of what the GP do now is because of what happened in 2017, they learned a lot from that.

    • Muttonbird 17.2

      The co-leader thing seems superfluous. What is the point? Reckon the sharp end of the Greens relationship with the public would be a lot more sharp with one leader.

      • weka 17.2.1

        Green kaupapa, maybe learn how that works.

        • Muttonbird 17.2.1.1

          Affirmative action. I have since done a bit of reading. A good policy, but should it extend to leadership/co-leadership where it is a lot harder to satisfy the requirements in the selection of just one or two people?

          • weka 17.2.1.1.1

            how do you mean?

            • Muttonbird 17.2.1.1.1.1

              If there are mandates for a percentage of positions to be filled by people with certain attributes (affirmative action, which is fine) then it's easier to do with a larger number of positions. When you get down to two positions, or one, it becomes quite difficult to fulfil with those parameters.

              That's my theory, anyway.

              And the Greens are still modifying the requirements which is possibly making it even more difficult.

              • Stuart Munro

                That would be my take too – if they need Maori and rainbow representation, then a third role might make that possible without tears. Dumping straight males altogether may cost them up to 40% of their vote – not something to do lightly.

  15. Anker 18

    One question I wonder about. If Shaw survives, that might be very problematic for the Greens. I think James replacement is Chloe and if she doesn’t replace him, there will be a lot of unhappy youth, very left people in the party, who hate that a Cis white male” who wears a suit and doesn’t shout out his pro nouns is leader.

    I could be wrong about this though

    • weka 18.1

      one potential scenario,

      • Anne 18.1.1

        Yes weka. And the prime minister has publicly supported his work by announcing he will remain the Minister for Climate Change. Just because he doesn't make a lot of noise about it doesn't mean he is not a 'hard working' and effective minister. He is.

        • weka 18.1.1.1

          didn't really understand why people though his Ministerial post would even be in question. It's not tied to him being co-leader is it?

    • Robert Guyton 18.2

      James Shaw will survive and thrive as a result of this development. Those who are uncomfortable with who he is and how he operates, will be chastised and their mission thwarted. James' supporters will be encouraged and emboldened, as will James. The media, the nay-sayers, pfffttt, they'll rattle about the way they always do.

  16. Chess Player 19

    The Greens just went from being highly likely to secure a strong position after next election, to struggling to be part of the next government at all.

    • Robert Guyton 19.1

      The Greens have not lost anything over this minor, internal development. In fact, middle-of-the-road voters considering The Greens will be encouraged when it transpires that James has seen off the flakey challenge and strengthened his status as a non-flake (approximating their framing there 🙂

      I see more votes for The Greens and a stronger position in Government.

      • alwyn 19.1.1

        What is your prediction if either of the following occurs Robert?

        1. Shaw get rolled and a second woman becomes the co-leader?

        2. No alternative leader is nominated but there are still 25+% who vote to re-re-open the nominations again?

        • weka 19.1.1.1
          1. the GP will have two female coleaders

          2. very unlikely to happen unless they have someone in mind and didn't get organised in time.

          • alwyn 19.1.1.1.1

            "the GP will have two female coleaders"

            smiley

            You really should be giving lessons to politicians. Never say more in an answer than you have to.

        • Robert Guyton 19.1.1.2

          weka's responses were pretty good. I find, what-if questions to be loaded and best avoided. What if The Greens get 20% t the next election, Alwyn 🙂

          In any case, 2 female co-leaders? I'd be comfortable with that. James would probably be irked, continue on as Climate minister for a while, then move on.

          I'd distance myself further from the party, seeing a behaviour I don't like, or rather, doesn't help the cause I believe The Greens are designed to fight for.

          All that said, I believe none of this will happen. James will reclaim his position, the disrupting-factor will be dismissed, having failed in its mission.

          On your second point, a repeat of what has happened, I'd do what I've done this time, predict eventual success, but be pretty annoyed at the so-called 25% for their lack of foresight.

          I can't imagine that there is, in fact, someone willing to "challenge James" as their name would become mud 🙂

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