Open mike 24/01/2021

Written By: - Date published: 6:00 am, January 24th, 2021 - 80 comments
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80 comments on “Open mike 24/01/2021 ”

  1. weka 1

    Convo on twitter about whether the UK could have closed its borders early on in an attempt to contain covid transmission. Leaving aside whether elimination was ever an option for them, and whether it was culturally or politically possible to close the borders, looking simply at the logistics of a border close, are there good reasons why it wasn't possible? Or was it?

    Explanations please, not just assertions that it could or couldn't be done.

    • RedBaronCV 1.4

      As a complete aside – not been following news – have we started to vaccinate our border and other at risk staff yet? And if not how soon will it be done?

      • Andre 1.4.1

        No we haven't started yet. Ministry of Health sez second quarter 2021 to start. Medsafe hasn't yet approved any covid vaccines for use in NZ.

        https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-response-planning/covid-19-vaccine-planning

        • RedBaronCV 1.4.1.1

          April that seems to be a long way away for the staff at the interface and cabin crew going overseas. For the rest of us it's not so urgent as they shield us. I would have thought in the next 2-3 weeks would be a better idea. Does medsafe have expertise not held overseas?
          That document doesn’t exactly sound urgent in terms of protecting the virus from getting in. More interested in setting up a national spy system register that of course can only be accessed electronically and with no doubt significant capture of personal information. with a view to sharing it perhaps?

          • Andre 1.4.1.1.1

            Meh. It seems reasonable to me for us to wait.

            Overseas, people are dying and getting long term disabilities at huge rates. While we here in New Zealand are mostly containing it at the border with very few hiccups, using simple techniques and trained staff. The cost of containment really isn't that high, compared to the cost of dealing with disease that other countries are dealing with.

            I doubt Medsafe think they have greater expertise than overseas. It's just that overseas they have medical emergencies going on, so they have approved the vaccines for emergency use with less information than would be required for full approval. That full approval will be coming in due course. We don't have the medical emergency, so we have the luxury of waiting for more complete information for full approval.

            There's also questions around whether and how much the vaccine efficacy is reduced against the newer mutations. It may be that Pfizer/BioNTech (and Moderna) will adjust their mRNA recipe to improve efficacy against the newer strains. If that happens, there will be questions around how much new testing will be required for the adjusted recipe.

            So all up, looks to me like the Ministry of Health has found a good balance between urgency, getting enough info for full approval, and not trying to muscle into the queue when there really are many others with much greater needs than ours.

            • In Vino 1.4.1.1.1.1

              +1 Andre. I am rather irritated by critics who scream that we should be greedily queue-jumping like Singapore.

              Time will tell if this is yet another case where Righties are screaming that we should do what Sweden/Australia/whoever are doing, only to go all quiet when things turn to custard there, and we turn out to have chosen the better policy.

              It seems to me that much of the demands for instant vaccine supply is politically motivated. And a couple of 'academics' are getting quoted a lot in this respect. In our supposedly impartial but privately-run news media…

            • RedLogix 1.4.1.1.1.2

              Agree with all of that Andre.

              It may be that Pfizer/BioNTech (and Moderna) will adjust their mRNA recipe to improve efficacy against the newer strains.

              The latest news I'm hearing is that the rollout in the UK and EU of these mRNA vaccines has hit big problems with production. I don't know how seriously this will impact the timelines, but it does suggest that approval and access to more conventional alternatives like the Oxford AstraXenica (which can be easily made in dozens of existing plants globally) should be a priority.

              In this AU/NZ can and should wait for the inevitable teething problems overseas to be sorted.

          • Tricledrown 1.4.1.1.2

            Red Barron the reason why countries are vaccinating now and not later is because c19 is rampant in these countries and it makes sense to build up herd immunity because so many are dying compared to the risk an not fully tested vaccine program.

            NZ has the luxury of wait and see what vaccine is best.

            No advantage to be gained by rushing an untried vaccine.

            Especially as there is no evidence of the length the vaccine will protect us.

            • RedBaronCV 1.4.1.1.2.1

              i can see the sense in waiting for the general rollout.

              More specifically though – if these new strains are as contagious – dangerous as they are being made out to be – then surely it makes sense to protect the at risk people manning our border response, who are a fairly small group and even if it only lasts a few weeks surely that is better than leaving them without any protection at all. and given it's only a few thousand doses why not do it as fast as possible. It doesn't have to be tied to the general rollout surely? Bit like giving the border response better masks N95 than the standard bits of paper. The cost is tiny and the potential benefits are huge.
              There was a link floating around the other day on a research piece that showed how the virus had transmitted in flight on an Airnz service. Sober reading.

              • weka

                the vaccines are new, and they're still gathering data on how well they work, what kind of immunity they grant, whether the vaccinated person can still transmit the virus, and what kind of side effects and at what rate they are happening. Given CV is a novel virus causing a new disease that we don't fully understand yet, it makes sense to wait until there is more research on all those things. As explained above, NZ's situation isn't urgent and it's better to let the wrinkles get ironed out before using the vaccines here.

            • weka 1.4.1.1.2.2

              is herd immunity a current goal? I'm sure it's the long term goal, but I suspect atm it's to just get as many people protected as possible. Once we have longer term data on the vaccines I think it will be easier to see if herd immunity is possible or if we are going for something like the limitation of influenza.

              • lprent

                is herd immunity a current goal?

                … or if we are going for something like the limitation of influenza.

                I doubt that complete or near complete herd immunity is possible. This looks like being another endemic population disease.

                I suspect that we’re going to be looking at reducing the R0 to the point that outbreaks are small, contained, and infrequent. That requires vaccination in adults and possibly eventually down to kids. That depends on the effectiveness of the vaccines over time. But definitely always targeting vaccines for those at the highest mortality and damage risks from the covid-19 family.

                But vaccinated people will always have a small probability of getting it. So will the people who have already had it. The important thing is that there is sufficient population immunities to stop it going epidemic.

                • weka

                  how do you see that being achieved in NZ? Does that mean at some point after mass vaccination we open the borders and let CV in and contain any outbreaks? Or are you thinking border would open after other countries have achieved sufficient population immunities.

  2. Stephen D 2

    The best explanation of the rise of Trumpism I’ve read.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/sep/07/how-great-paradox-american-politics-holds-secret-trumps-success?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Not that I actually understand them.

    • RedLogix 2.1

      Interestingly that article starts with a description of appallingly bad safety standards at a major petrochem site in the 1960's. Yet remarkably everything has changed in the 50 years since; the events he describes are pretty much unthinkable in a developed country today.

      In particular:

      One day, Sherman was standing in a room, leaning over a large pipe to check a filter, when an operator in a distant control room mistakenly turned a knob, sending hot, almond-smelling, liquid chlorinated hydrocarbons coursing through the pipe, drenching him

      I worked for decades in that control room, always aware that I could kill or main with a bad or unlucky decision. Yet the technology advanced dramatically, giving us tools and platforms that properly implemented, making incidents like the above orders of magnitude less likely. Organisations soon realised that investing in safety tech actually saved them cash, and in the past decade virtually every major new install, and many smaller ones, now has a substantial safety tech component.

      Men like the person in that article used to do all the dirty, dangerous work. He describes it well; but it's worth noting that industry has changed, and continues to change since those days.

      Not that this takes much away from the primary narrative of the article; there is a strong sense of betrayal driving Trumpist populism in the USA. It's real and has legitimate causes and real consequences – homelessness and opiates stalk the lower rungs of the American dream.

      Yet the bottom 20% of the US, if they were treated as a nation by itself, is still one of the wealthiest in the world in terms of consumption per capita, falling just between the Netherlands and Canada. (And considerably higher than NZ). This is the paradox of inequality – it's not primarily about GINI coefficients and numbers – but I believe has it's roots in our psychological welfare. How connected we are, how healthy communities are and whether we feel the society we live in will look out for our interests. And in this the US political consensus from Clinton onward has squandered an enormous reservoir of trust on largely corrupt ends.

      While I'm on record here as defending the USA from it's more rabid detractors, the above is true at the same time. It’s not hard to understand them – they’re our brothers and sisters.

      • Nic the NZer 2.1.1

        I didn't find any refutations but, considering where that story is repeated, it seems likely to be a fraud.

        In pure gdp per capita terms the bottom 5% have about twice the income of the US bottom 5% with the US incomes only going higher about the 50th percentile. The study claims there is heaps of unrecorded material help in the US which compensates for this, but I don't think the conclusion is credible.

        • RedLogix 2.1.1.1

          Bottom 5% and bottom 20% are different cohorts. Moreover you're using income not consumption, again different measures. Statistics do not interpret themselves, there are often multiple, competing explanations for the same result, and we are left to choose among them.

          considering where that story is repeated

          Shooting the messenger ain't an argument. Not everything the other guy's say is by definition 'fraud'. You might not like their conclusions, but you're much better off trying to create constructive dialog and find common ground regardless.

          • Nic the NZer 2.1.1.1.1

            Yes, thats why I only said its likely to be fraud.

            But who knows, maybe the Democrats are about to adopt a new narrative of even our poorest are doing better than the average European?

            • RedLogix 2.1.1.1.1.1

              The only reason why I quoted it is that it provides a counterpoint to the usual inequality narrative that defines the problem solely in terms of 'poverty'. Because the USA is such a fundamentally prosperous nation, even with the extremes of wealth between the top 0.1% and the bottom 50% – virtually all Americans are still better off than the vast majority of humanity.

              This does not mean that inequality is not a problem, quite the contrary I've consistently held here for years that it's one of the most outstanding moral challenges humanity faces.

              Because when we start using numbers and statistics to anchor the argument alone – we soon come adrift if we cannot also find some common ground and understanding to reach a consensus on what they mean.

              • McFlock

                I struggle to see how one homeless person dying because of a lack of medical care is any better off than another homeless person dying because of a lack of medical care. So I suspect the lower-threshold incomes of your great nation intersect with everyone else's somewhere between 0% and your picked 50%.

                • RedLogix

                  Yup – the low threshold is an arbitrary choice. 20% was derived from the article I referenced. Then Nick wanted to go with 5%. The lowest 50% is another commonly used threshold point.

                  In essence yes you're correct, there will be some low number – 5% seems as good a guess as any – where the US population is definitely neck-deep in homelessness, opiates, minimal health care, poor education, precarious work etc. But still they're by and large still a long way from any global definition of absolute poverty.

                  But this doesn't negate the point I was making, inequality is important not just because of any arbitrary measures of income we might measure it with, but because it undermines trust in the social fabric.

                  Now here's an interesting point. In very poor countries there isn't much potential for inequality to be a problem, because with few exceptions the gap between the top 1% and the bottom 20% is not all that large in absolute terms. But when talking about the most prosperous nation on earth by a large margin, then suddenly the gap becomes very large indeed. And that matters a great deal.

                  • Tricledrown

                    Red logistics that's why Biden wants undocumented migrants and the poor to be immunised.

                    Also Biden wants everyone counted on the census to make sure that herd immunity can be achieved.

                    • Incognito

                      You’re talking a herd of shit. Provide some links.

                      But why do I bother replying to you, the one commenter here who never reads replies to their comments let alone responds to them?

                  • McFlock

                    In essence yes you're correct, there will be some low number – 5% seems as good a guess as any – where the US population is definitely neck-deep in homelessness, opiates, minimal health care, poor education, precarious work etc. But still they're by and large still a long way from any global definition of absolute poverty.

                    How much better off can they be if they're dying of the same things?

                    • RedLogix

                      This is the interesting thing about inequality, the mere fact of being stacked up at the very bottom of any society, regardless of absolute measures of income or consumption – tends to have a toxic effect across the board in outcomes.

                      That's what I'm trying to convey here, that while we measure inequality in terms of material parameters, the impact of it doesn't necessarily correlate with absolute wealth very well. So yes in this we're saying much the same thing.

                    • McFlock

                      It might help if you could find a coutry with high inequality where the conditions of the poorest people aren't repeated across the globe in absolute terms: malnourished, homeless, scarce (if any) healthcare, and preventable death.

                      Doesn't have to be an arbitray 40% or 50% of median. Just a place where the poorest people (documented or undocumented) live like kings compared to the poorest in another country.

                  • Nic the NZer

                    I was in no way suggesting an alternate threshold but just describing how large an income disparity there is observed by conventional measures for the fraud to be actually fact.

                    While in income terms and often materially the poorest of the first world will be better off than most in the second and third world (as is well known). Your example however claimed in the US they would be better off than the average of other first world countries.

                    • RedLogix

                      I’d ask you read the my comments in the whole and address that rather than selectively quibble and derail.

                      The point of using that reference is that data and statistics by themselves do not tell us what they mean. There are often competing meanings for the same information and I presented one that paints one different perspective. Reaching immediately for the 'fraud' card to make it go away is intellectually lazy.

                      But in the context of the whole comment it's perfectly clear I'm not in anyway diminishing inequality as a core moral issue – quite the contrary I personally believe the left has done a great disservice to the question by typically framing it in material terms only.

                      When in fact I believe it's a much more challenging and profound question than this.

      • millsy 2.1.2

        Quite frankly I have no symphathy for people like Sherman. A guy who thinks that some queer college student in New England who has a sex life is a huge threat to western civilasation but is willing to let corporations kill and maim their workers for profit, for a shit wage that is spent mostly on rent.

        Over it.

        These people have no place in the working class. Him and his shitty little Bible.

        • Tricledrown 2.1.2.1

          Looking back through history the billionaire class have always treated workers like this keep them poor and powerless.

          • RedLogix 2.1.2.1.1

            Well my comment points out the exact opposite, that this kind of poor safety practice is no longer normal at all. Much of it was just ignorance, and that men like Lee were acculturated to high risk – than malice.

            The good news is that, in most developed parts of the world, this has changed quite dramatically since the 1960's.

        • Nic the NZer 2.1.2.2

          Did Sherman have a particular stance on gay issues?

  3. RedLogix 3

    A tribute to Terry Pratchett, shot in NZ.

    • Macro 4.1

      And a good report here.

      https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/23/the-problem-is-putin-protesters-throng-the-streets-to-support-navalny

      This crowd almost compares to a Chump Inauguration!/ sarc

      A very large crowd on a St Petersburg street blocked at the end nearest the camera by a large contingent of riot police

      • joe90 4.1.1

        They're pissed off with Poots larceny.

        Alexey Navalny’s Anti-Corruption Foundation has released a bombshell investigation into a $1.35-billion residence built for Russian President Vladimir Putin near a resort town on the Black Sea. Navalny’s team published the report the day after the opposition figure was put in pre-trial detention at Moscow’s notorious Matrosskaya Tishina prison. In addition to sharing the building’s floor plan and visualizations of the interiors, the anti-corruption activists recount the history of the construction project and dig into how it was financed by companies connected to members of Putin’s inner circle. “Meduza” sums up the highlights from the investigation.

        https://meduza.io/en/feature/2021/01/19/putin-s-palace

        #putin is a thief

    • millsy 4.3

      This the same Nalvany who called Muslims "cockroaches"? Or who has made well known his disdain for those in Ukraine, Georgia etc?

      Putin is bascially Don Colreone with missile codes, but the so-called liberal opposition figures are hardly angels themselves. The other liberal darling, Ksenia Saubchuk, is on record as wanting to sell Russian assets to Western multinationals and was absolutely fine with the extra judicial killing of George Floyd.

      Probably why the Russian put up with Putin so much, the others are probably even worse.

      • RedLogix 4.3.1

        In the context of Russian history over the past 200 years or more, Putin is by far and away the very best leader they've ever had.

        Russia is beset by challenges geopolitical, demographic, historic and cultural – but despite this progress has been visible in the past 20 years. Even at a personal level when I look (using google earth) at parts of the Russian city I lived and worked in for some months back in 2001, I'm astonished at the changes that have happened since.

        We forget that the 90's were an absolute disaster for Russia, and that Western betrayal played a large part in that debacle. When I was there the impacts of it were highly visible and quite visceral. That Putin has largely lifted Russia out of this explains a great deal of his enduring popularity.

        But his regime rests on a narrow circle of competent people, and they're both aging and short on fresh ideas. It's entirely understandable that younger generations of Russians are keen to look elsewhere for new ideas. The problem for them, is that there are very few alternative figures outside of the Kremlin system who have any real track record at governance.

  4. Adrian Thornton 5

    Clinton and Pelosi just won't give up on their fake news 'Russiagate' bat shit crazy conspiracy carry on….though I see there are still a few takers out there, one born every day I guess.

    Clinton: I would love to see if Trump 'was talking to Putin the day that the insurgents invaded our Capitol'

    https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/534767-clinton-i-would-love-to-see-if-trump-was-talking-to-putin-the

  5. joe90 6

    So much economic anxiety..

    A man who helped drag a police officer down the U.S. Capitol steps tried to flee to Switzerland after the day of the siege and then, in what authorities called a different type of flight effort, attempted suicide, prosecutors told a judge on Friday.

    Describing the case as “very disturbing,” a federal magistrate denied bail to Jeffrey Patrick Sabol, a 51-year-old divorced geophysicist with three children. Patrick has not been charged with assault but rather under a civil disorder statute barring any effort to “obstruct, impede, or interfere” law enforcement.

    […]

    Sabol’s federal defender Jason Ser argued that his client’s wealth, extensive family connections, and prominent, well-paid and celebrated geophysicist were sufficient to grant the bail request. The defense offered a $200,000 bail package, secured by several sureties, to ensure the defendant’s continued presence in the country and at future court appearances.

    The judge, however, said those facts weighed against any form of leniency in Sabol’s case.

    Remarking on the defendant’s highly-pedigreed, upper-crust background—and specifically citing his employment as a renowned geophysicist, his extensive family ties and his elite financial means—Krause said “this cuts against him” because “despite all that he did go and engage in that conduct on January 6.

    https://lawandcrime.com/u-s-capitol-siege/rioter-who-helped-drag-officer-down-u-s-capitol-steps-tried-to-flee-to-switzerland-feds/?

    • McFlock 6.1

      One thing about a lot of these people who have been arrested, they seem to have a high proportion of highly-qualified professions if not wealth. Geophysicist, ffs? Lawyers, dentists, etc.

      Atlas Whined…

    • Forget now 6.2

      Thanks for the link Joe90, though I can't be too happy about even a traitor's suicide attempt. Nor is he likely to be the only one facing prosecution for the coup attempt who chooses that method of saving face. Wasn't there a second cop who killed themself after the events of January 6th? Yes:

      Howard Liebengood — the son and namesake of a former Senate Sergeant-at-Arms, lobbyist and [Republican] Hill staffer… [then] President Trump ordered flags lowered to half-staff in honor of both Sicknick and Liebengood.

      https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/public-safety/liebengood-capitol-police-death/2021/01/10/3a495b84-5357-11eb-a08b-f1381ef3d207_story.html

      So Trump made no sign of mourning the death of an officer (allegedly) beaten to death with a fire extinguisher by his own minions, until one linked to the GOP died by his own hand and both were suddenly worth his recognition.

      Anyway, I clicked on this link from your link which is a little off topic, but likewise shows that delusionists may not be able to elude justice for ever:

      “Since the day of the shooting, InfoWars has aggressively promoted a dreadful and despicable false narrative about Sandy Hook, mocking the families as liars and accusing them of a sinister conspiracy. Plaintiff’s family has been specifically targeted in this campaign of harassment,” the Lewis original petition alleged. “These baseless and vile accusations, which have been pushed by InfoWars and Mr. Jones a continuous basis since the shooting, advance the idea that the Sandy Hook massacre did not happen, or that it was staged by the government and concealed using actors, and that the families of the victims are participants in a horrifying cover-up. InfoWars knew its assertions were false or made these statements with reckless and outrageous disregard for their truth.”…

      Each of the Texas lawsuits seek damages in excess of $1 million.

      Jones repeatedly sought to have the filings dismissed during various stages of the legal process. Each time, the district courts and the appellate courts declined to toss the claims.

      Now, each of those four lawsuits can proceed on the merits.

      https://lawandcrime.com/high-profile/texas-supreme-court-silently-denies-alex-jones-all-forms-of-relief-sandy-hook-families-and-others-can-now-sue-conspiracy-theorist-and-infowars-into-the-ground/?utm_source=mostpopular

  6. Ed 7

    Potential community case in Northland.

    Ashley Bloomfield to make an announcement at 4 pm

  7. Forget now 8

    The woman travelled around Northland after leaving isolation, and a thorough interview has suggested she has four close contacts. They are isolated and are talking to health officials and have been tested…

    She travelled to New Zealand from London, arriving in Auckland on 30 December.

    She returned two negative tests while in isolation, and had no symptoms while in isolation.

    After leaving isolation she returned to her home in Northland, where she lives with one other person. That person has reported no symptoms.

    Dr Bloomfield said she felt very mild symptoms on 15 January, but did not associate them with Covid. As her symptoms worsened, she got tested at a community testing facility.

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/435090/watch-latest-covid-19-community-case-tested-negative-twice

    Really have to wonder what “travelled around Northland” means exactly. I imagine quite a few people from all around Aotearoa have been travelling around Northland in that time period.

    Those who don’t use the apps (I don’t do the bluetooth part myself, but maybe should start switching that on), should start taking pen and paper with them again.

    • Forget now 8.1

      Bloomfield said the woman lives south of Whangārei and she is still there. She travelled around southern parts of Northland, as far south as Helensville.

      https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300213205/live-health-officials-not-ruling-anything-out-after-covid19-case-detected-in-the-community-in-northland

      That's around the 21minute mark in the RNZ link above. Also acknowledgement to Ed@7 for first mentioning this community COVID case on OM, I should've have made my comment as a reply to theirs but was distracted.

      • Ed 8.1.1

        The only good news is that she used her COVID App properly.

        The government needs to listen to Michael Baker.
        Listening to the news and he is saying the following.
        Hotels are not the places to manage isolation.
        We must stop entry of people from highly infectious countries.

        • Forget now 8.1.1.1

          Baker is not the only one to be calling for more extreme precautions. Though given the strains first detected in; Italy, the UK, South Africa, and Brazil have spread into other countries already, stopping entry from those particular countries is a bit of locking the barn door after the horse has bolted.

          Though this was on RNZ website mere hours before today's community COVID alert was announced. And I have to assume that the Professor knows more than I do:

          Otago University public health professor Nick Wilson said this is now the most dangerous period the country has faced since the August outbreak.

          "Because of the change in the virus, it is really time to take that increased risk more seriously," Professor Wilson said.

          "We really do need a serious look at reducing the number of infected people arriving, and improving the quality of the whole border control arrangements.

          "There's a genuine case for actually stopping all arrivals [from the UK] {Sic} until we improve the border facilities."…

          Dr Wilson said better masks need to be worn by both staff and returnees in the facilities and smoking areas – which were found to have played a part in the Russian seamen quarantine outbreak – should be eliminated. Ventilation in hotels needed to be improved, and a review should also look at the safety of shared exercise areas.

          He said there are also limits to hotel-based quarantine and a case could be made to move it to more rural facilities.

          https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/435047/govt-should-look-at-closing-border-to-uk-arrivals-professor

          • solkta 8.1.1.1.1

            How do you wear a mask while smoking?

            • Forget now 8.1.1.1.1.1

              Wilson is proposing eliminating smoking areas entirely, and presumably barring entry to those who are unable to cope with this requirement. Though the sentence is a bit ambiguous, there should have been at least a comma there.

              Also, I have had another glance at that tab, and when I say "mere hours" – that's actually more like 26 hours.

        • RedBaronCV 8.1.1.2

          Further up thread i wondered why we were waiting so long to vaccinate the few thousand manning the border but I seem to be the only one that feels it might be a good idea?

          • Forget now 8.1.1.2.1

            RBCV, there is no vaccine in the country with which to vaccinate border staff. Hipkins; in today’s announcement, said maybe March for that – depending on supply logistics.

            From the link that Andre@1.4.1 posted in reply to your upthread query:

            Our first priority will be to vaccinate border workers and essential staff who are at the greatest risk of getting COVID-19. We expect vaccines to be delivered to our front line workers in the second quarter of 2021.

            Our aim is to then commence vaccination of the general public in the second half of the year. This will be dependent on Medsafe approving the vaccines as being safe and effective for use in New Zealand.

            • RedBaronCV 8.1.1.2.1.1

              And we can't fly a small quantity of doses in?? One of them at least doesn't need the very low temperatures. I think I'd appreciate a much greater sense of urgency around a couple of thousand doses. Nail for horseshoe type scenario –

            • lprent 8.1.1.2.1.2

              It was always planned for March / April at the earliest as far as I am aware. End of the first quarter.That was the earliest that I thought that we could start vaccinating assuming a near end of 2020 release of vaccines. I was saying that back in October. So was the government.

              We had no urgent need to do a emergency validation and certification of the vaccines because we didn’t have a pandemic raging in NZ. Therefore it was best to let other countries to work out the vaccine bugs in terms of delivery, contra immunisation factors (what to watch for to prevent side-effects), large scale efficacy, and everything else involved in rolling out a vaccine program.

              FFS: My long term expectation was I’d be surprised if we hit acceptable reasonable vaccination levels this year (ie < ~60%). I don’t expect opening the borders except to a handful of locations until the third quarter.

              And that was some of these more virulent strains turned up. So far they mostly look like just needing to increase the required level of vaccination in the population so that they can’t outbreak easily.

              Its all a stats & probability question. Listening to children wanting the satisfaction NOW.. Who does that?

              Thats right – National.. The party for children.

              • RedBaronCV

                Look I really get the scenario over the mass rollout – we don't have the pandemic so we can take a measured approach and I'm not suggesting otherwise. I've said this repeatedly.

                Then this is this other very small group of people – a few thousand.

                If we look at stats and probability the people manning the border, quarantine etc are the first ring of defence for the rest of us. Their chances of contracting it, along with the people actually doing the quarantine days must be higher than for the rest of the population.

                My question remains why are we not showing a great deal more urgency about vaccinating this very limited group separately from the main rollout? We could import a few thousand doses surely ( and also vaccinate people as they enter quarantine) because the cost of doing this is surely very minor compared to locking down Auckland , running mass testing etc etc. And even in terms of scarce vaccine it means we can kick the can down the road further for the mass usage leaving it for others.

                To me it's nuts not to be doing this small group for the good of us all. Even if the vaccine is not perfect.

        • Herodotus 8.1.1.3

          The woman has been very diligent with her movements, but no matter how diligent you are there can be times that there are gaps. I am taken back with the list of places she has visited that there are no gas stations that I can see listed.

          • McFlock 8.1.1.3.1

            Well, two options come to mind: one is that she's not a driver, and the other is that she does drive but uses those robo-pumps that have popped up in the last couple of years. Not much chance for close contact with those.

            • RedBaronCV 8.1.1.3.1.1

              Apart from touching the pump handles – hard surfaces like rubbish tins and lift buttons have been implicated in transmission. I always glove up and sanitise at the pump.

              • McFlock

                True, to a degree. But somewhat oily hard surfaces for an already low form of transmission…

  8. RedLogix 9

    What if Justin Bieber ran for President?

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

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  • Ticket To Anywhere

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    5 days ago
  • Joe Biden's withdrawal puts the spotlight back on Kamala and the USA's complicated relatio...

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  • Why we have to challenge our national fiscal assumptions

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  • A speed limit is not a target, and yet…

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  • I'd like to share what I did this weekend

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  • For the children – Why mere sentiment can be a misleading force in our lives, and lead to unex...

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    6 days ago
  • A friend in uncertain times

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    6 days ago
  • The Chaotic World of Male Diet Influencers

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    6 days ago
  • It's Starting To Look A Lot Like… Y2K

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    1 week ago
  • Bernard’s Saturday Soliloquy for the week to July 20

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    1 week ago
  • Pharmac Director, Climate Change Commissioner, Health NZ Directors – The latest to quit this m...

    Summary:As New Zealand loses at least 12 leaders in the public service space of health, climate, and pharmaceuticals, this month alone, directly in response to the Government’s policies and budget choices, what lies ahead may be darker than it appears. Tui examines some of those departures and draws a long ...
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    1 week ago
  • Flooding Housing Policy

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    1 week ago
  • A Voyage Among the Vandals: Accepted (Again!)

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    1 week ago
  • The Kākā's Chorus for Friday, July 19

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    1 week ago
  • The Kākā’s Pick 'n' Mix for Friday, July 19

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  • Weekly Roundup 19-July-2024

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    Greater AucklandBy Greater Auckland
    1 week ago
  • Weekly Climate Wrap: A market-led plan for failure

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  • Tobacco First

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    1 week ago

  • Joint statement from the Prime Ministers of Canada, Australia and New Zealand

    Australia, Canada and New Zealand today issued the following statement on the need for an urgent ceasefire in Gaza and the risk of expanded conflict between Hizballah and Israel. The situation in Gaza is catastrophic. The human suffering is unacceptable. It cannot continue.  We remain unequivocal in our condemnation of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    18 hours ago
  • AG reminds institutions of legal obligations

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    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    21 hours ago
  • More young people learning about digital safety

    Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says the Government’s online safety website for children and young people has reached one million page views.  “It is great to see so many young people and their families accessing the site Keep It Real Online to learn how to stay safe online, and manage ...
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    22 hours ago
  • Speech to the Conference for General Practice 2024

    Tēnā tātou katoa,  Ngā mihi te rangi, ngā mihi te whenua, ngā mihi ki a koutou, kia ora mai koutou. Thank you for the opportunity to be here and the invitation to speak at this 50th anniversary conference. I acknowledge all those who have gone before us and paved the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    24 hours ago
  • Employers and payroll providers ready for tax changes

    New Zealand’s payroll providers have successfully prepared to ensure 3.5 million individuals will, from Wednesday next week, be able to keep more of what they earn each pay, says Finance Minister Nicola Willis and Revenue Minister Simon Watts.  “The Government's tax policy changes are legally effective from Wednesday. Delivering this tax ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Experimental vineyard futureproofs wine industry

    An experimental vineyard which will help futureproof the wine sector has been opened in Blenheim by Associate Regional Development Minister Mark Patterson. The covered vineyard, based at the New Zealand Wine Centre – Te Pokapū Wāina o Aotearoa, enables controlled environmental conditions. “The research that will be produced at the Experimental ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Funding confirmed for regions affected by North Island Weather Events

    The Coalition Government has confirmed the indicative regional breakdown of North Island Weather Event (NIWE) funding for state highway recovery projects funded through Budget 2024, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Regions in the North Island suffered extensive and devastating damage from Cyclone Gabrielle and the 2023 Auckland Anniversary Floods, and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Indonesian Foreign Minister to visit

    Indonesia’s Foreign Minister, Retno Marsudi, will visit New Zealand next week, Foreign Minister Winston Peters has announced.   “Indonesia is important to New Zealand’s security and economic interests and is our closest South East Asian neighbour,” says Mr Peters, who is currently in Laos to engage with South East Asian partners. ...
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    1 day ago
  • Strengthening partnership with Ngāti Maniapoto

    He aha te kai a te rangatira? He kōrero, he kōrero, he kōrero. The government has reaffirmed its commitment to supporting the aspirations of Ngāti Maniapoto, Minister for Māori Development Tama Potaka says. “My thanks to Te Nehenehenui Trust – Ngāti Maniapoto for bringing their important kōrero to a ministerial ...
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    2 days ago
  • Transport Minister thanks outgoing CAA Chair

    Transport Minister Simeon Brown has thanked outgoing Chair of the Civil Aviation Authority, Janice Fredric, for her service to the board.“I have received Ms Fredric’s resignation from the role of Chair of the Civil Aviation Authority,” Mr Brown says.“On behalf of the Government, I want to thank Ms Fredric for ...
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    2 days ago
  • Test for Customary Marine Title being restored

    The Government is proposing legislation to overturn a Court of Appeal decision and amend the Marine and Coastal Area Act in order to restore Parliament’s test for Customary Marine Title, Treaty Negotiations Minister Paul Goldsmith says.  “Section 58 required an applicant group to prove they have exclusively used and occupied ...
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    2 days ago
  • Opposition united in bad faith over ECE sector review

    Regulation Minister David Seymour says that opposition parties have united in bad faith, opposing what they claim are ‘dangerous changes’ to the Early Childhood Education sector, despite no changes even being proposed yet.  “Issues with affordability and availability of early childhood education, and the complexity of its regulation, has led ...
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    2 days ago
  • Kiwis having their say on first regulatory review

    After receiving more than 740 submissions in the first 20 days, Regulation Minister David Seymour is asking the Ministry for Regulation to extend engagement on the early childhood education regulation review by an extra two weeks.  “The level of interest has been very high, and from the conversations I’ve been ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Government upgrading Lower North Island commuter rail

    The Coalition Government is investing $802.9 million into the Wairarapa and Manawatū rail lines as part of a funding agreement with the NZ Transport Agency (NZTA), KiwiRail, and the Greater Wellington and Horizons Regional Councils to deliver more reliable services for commuters in the lower North Island, Transport Minister Simeon ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Government moves to ensure flood protection for Wairoa

    Local Government Minister Simeon Brown has announced his intention to appoint a Crown Manager to both Hawke’s Bay Regional and Wairoa District Councils to speed up the delivery of flood protection work in Wairoa."Recent severe weather events in Wairoa this year, combined with damage from Cyclone Gabrielle in 2023 have ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • PM speech to Parliament – Royal Commission of Inquiry’s Report into Abuse in Care

    Mr Speaker, this is a day that many New Zealanders who were abused in State care never thought would come. It’s the day that this Parliament accepts, with deep sorrow and regret, the Report of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in Care.  At the heart of this report are the ...
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    3 days ago
  • Government acknowledges torture at Lake Alice

    For the first time, the Government is formally acknowledging some children and young people at Lake Alice Psychiatric Hospital experienced torture. The final report of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in State and Faith-based Care “Whanaketia – through pain and trauma, from darkness to light,” was tabled in Parliament ...
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    3 days ago
  • Government acknowledges courageous abuse survivors

    The Government has acknowledged the nearly 2,400 courageous survivors who shared their experiences during the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Historical Abuse in State and Faith-Based Care. The final report from the largest and most complex public inquiry ever held in New Zealand, the Royal Commission Inquiry “Whanaketia – through ...
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    3 days ago
  • Half a million people use tax calculator

    With a week to go before hard-working New Zealanders see personal income tax relief for the first time in fourteen years, 513,000 people have used the Budget tax calculator to see how much they will benefit, says Finance Minister Nicola Willis.  “Tax relief is long overdue. From next Wednesday, personal income ...
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    3 days ago
  • Paid Parental Leave improvements pass first reading

    Workplace Relations and Safety Minister Brooke van Velden says a bill that has passed its first reading will improve parental leave settings and give non-biological parents more flexibility as primary carer for their child. The Regulatory Systems Amendment Bill (No3), passed its first reading this morning. “It includes a change ...
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    3 days ago
  • Rebuilding the economy through better regulation

    Two Bills designed to improve regulation and make it easier to do business have passed their first reading in Parliament, says Economic Development Minister Melissa Lee. The Regulatory Systems (Economic Development) Amendment Bill and Regulatory Systems (Immigration and Workforce) Amendment Bill make key changes to legislation administered by the Ministry ...
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    3 days ago
  • ‘Open banking’ and ‘open electricity’ on the way

    New legislation paves the way for greater competition in sectors such as banking and electricity, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly says. “Competitive markets boost productivity, create employment opportunities and lift living standards. To support competition, we need good quality regulation but, unfortunately, a recent OECD report ranked New ...
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    3 days ago
  • Charity lotteries to be permitted to operate online

    Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says lotteries for charitable purposes, such as those run by the Heart Foundation, Coastguard NZ, and local hospices, will soon be allowed to operate online permanently. “Under current laws, these fundraising lotteries are only allowed to operate online until October 2024, after which ...
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    4 days ago
  • Accelerating Northland Expressway

    The Coalition Government is accelerating work on the new four-lane expressway between Auckland and Whangārei as part of its Roads of National Significance programme, with an accelerated delivery model to deliver this project faster and more efficiently, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “For too long, the lack of resilient transport connections ...
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    4 days ago
  • Sir Don to travel to Viet Nam as special envoy

    Sir Don McKinnon will travel to Viet Nam this week as a Special Envoy of the Government, Foreign Minister Winston Peters has announced.    “It is important that the Government give due recognition to the significant contributions that General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong made to New Zealand-Viet Nam relations,” Mr ...
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    4 days ago
  • Grant Illingworth KC appointed as transitional Commissioner to Royal Commission

    Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says newly appointed Commissioner, Grant Illingworth KC, will help deliver the report for the first phase of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into COVID-19 Lessons, due on 28 November 2024.  “I am pleased to announce that Mr Illingworth will commence his appointment as ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • NZ to advance relationships with ASEAN partners

    Foreign Minister Winston Peters travels to Laos this week to participate in a series of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)-led Ministerial meetings in Vientiane.    “ASEAN plays an important role in supporting a peaceful, stable and prosperous Indo-Pacific,” Mr Peters says.   “This will be our third visit to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Backing mental health services on the West Coast

    Construction of a new mental health facility at Te Nikau Grey Hospital in Greymouth is today one step closer, Mental Health Minister Matt Doocey says. “This $27 million facility shows this Government is delivering on its promise to boost mental health care and improve front line services,” Mr Doocey says. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • NZ support for sustainable Pacific fisheries

    New Zealand is committing nearly $50 million to a package supporting sustainable Pacific fisheries development over the next four years, Foreign Minister Winston Peters and Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones announced today. “This support consisting of a range of initiatives demonstrates New Zealand’s commitment to assisting our Pacific partners ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Students’ needs at centre of new charter school adjustments

    Associate Education Minister David Seymour says proposed changes to the Education and Training Amendment Bill will ensure charter schools have more flexibility to negotiate employment agreements and are equipped with the right teaching resources. “Cabinet has agreed to progress an amendment which means unions will not be able to initiate ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Commissioner replaces Health NZ Board

    In response to serious concerns around oversight, overspend and a significant deterioration in financial outlook, the Board of Health New Zealand will be replaced with a Commissioner, Health Minister Dr Shane Reti announced today.  “The previous government’s botched health reforms have created significant financial challenges at Health NZ that, without ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Minister to speak at Australian Space Forum

    Minister for Space and Science, Innovation and Technology Judith Collins will travel to Adelaide tomorrow for space and science engagements, including speaking at the Australian Space Forum.  While there she will also have meetings and visits with a focus on space, biotechnology and innovation.  “New Zealand has a thriving space ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Climate Change Minister to attend climate action meeting in China

    Climate Change Minister Simon Watts will travel to China on Saturday to attend the Ministerial on Climate Action meeting held in Wuhan.  “Attending the Ministerial on Climate Action is an opportunity to advocate for New Zealand climate priorities and engage with our key partners on climate action,” Mr Watts says. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Oceans and Fisheries Minister to Solomons

    Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones is travelling to the Solomon Islands tomorrow for meetings with his counterparts from around the Pacific supporting collective management of the region’s fisheries. The 23rd Pacific Islands Forum Fisheries Committee and the 5th Regional Fisheries Ministers’ Meeting in Honiara from 23 to 26 July ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Government launches Military Style Academy Pilot

    The Government today launched the Military Style Academy Pilot at Te Au rere a te Tonga Youth Justice residence in Palmerston North, an important part of the Government’s plan to crackdown on youth crime and getting youth offenders back on track, Minister for Children, Karen Chhour said today. “On the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Nine priority bridge replacements to get underway

    The Government has welcomed news the NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) has begun work to replace nine priority bridges across the country to ensure our state highway network remains resilient, reliable, and efficient for road users, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.“Increasing productivity and economic growth is a key priority for the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Update on global IT outage

    Acting Prime Minister David Seymour has been in contact throughout the evening with senior officials who have coordinated a whole of government response to the global IT outage and can provide an update. The Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet has designated the National Emergency Management Agency as the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • New Zealand, Japan renew Pacific partnership

    New Zealand and Japan will continue to step up their shared engagement with the Pacific, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says.    “New Zealand and Japan have a strong, shared interest in a free, open and stable Pacific Islands region,” Mr Peters says.    “We are pleased to be finding more ways ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • New infrastructure energises BOP forestry towns

    New developments in the heart of North Island forestry country will reinvigorate their communities and boost economic development, Regional Development Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones visited Kaingaroa and Kawerau in Bay of Plenty today to open a landmark community centre in the former and a new connecting road in ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • 'Pacific Futures'

    President Adeang, fellow Ministers, honourable Diet Member Horii, Ambassadors, distinguished guests.    Minasama, konnichiwa, and good afternoon, everyone.    Distinguished guests, it’s a pleasure to be here with you today to talk about New Zealand’s foreign policy reset, the reasons for it, the values that underpin it, and how it ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

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