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Open mike 24/11/2022

Written By: - Date published: 6:00 am, November 24th, 2022 - 117 comments
Categories: open mike - Tags:


Open mike is your post.

For announcements, general discussion, whatever you choose.

The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy).

Step up to the mike …

117 comments on “Open mike 24/11/2022 ”

  1. Ad 1

    You can only do one rent rise a year but the Reserve Bank has ensured it will be very big.

    This government has had multiple chances to force greater price competition, but now the the RBNZ has just told Labour: "Too late!".

  2. Ed 2

    The government had the opportunity to get rid of neoliberalism and return to its roots as a working class party. Labour 2022 is not socialist. It is simply a manager for the corporate establishment.
    It chose the liberal middle class instead and consigned itself to the dustbin of history.

    • Tiger Mountain 2.2

      Can’t put it much clearer than that. And evidence is there via the neo liberal Parliamentary consensus–whereby the State Sector Act, Reserve Bank Act, monetarist transactional methods etc. roll over with each election. Labour has enacted a number of useful reforms that the Natzos would not have…but…when the pirate banks and supermarket duopoly laugh in their and citizens faces and keep raking it in, and a state house mega build remains wanting…

      As for the current RB rate hike, unemployed are often viewed by tories as “dirty filthy bennies”, a sub class of despicable losers…yet the RB Governor now says we need to add to their ranks to fight inflation, what the…while at the same time employers say they are labour starved and want more migrant labour. Now sure, jobs and people cannot always be linked, but the employers position says little more than–“cheap labour now please”–just as a number of workers are rediscovering their fight and winning decent wage increases.

      The faux separation of, and ‘independent’ status of the Reserve Bank, under the RB Act, is such a travesty and reveals like little else why the NZ neo liberal state has to be booted.

      Descending into negative equity is going to be a humbling experience for some holders of thumping great mortgages, and guess what–voting for Baldrick is not going to make it better–the contrary in fact. Retired, middle class, working class and alienated need to find some points of unity and develop public action to combat the coming shit show.

      [corrected typo in user name – Incognito]

  3. Mike the Lefty 3

    I see that the National Party and Groundswell are crowing about the number of signatures included in their petition which Groundswell describes as a "farming tax" but Stuff.co.nz describes as a "food tax" (Interesting contrast!).

    By my rough calculations the petition at just over 102,000 was signed by something like 3% of the electorate – not a particularly impressive result and does not confirm Groundwell's claims that the overwhelming majority of New Zealanders support them.

    By the way Groundswell keep sending me unsolicited feeds on Facebook and then getting angry when I respond to them asking questions which they don't want to answer. The solution is simple – if they don't want any criticism then stop sending them to me. The very first question I asked is "why are you calling it a farming tax when it is not a farming tax per se – it is an agricultural carbon emissions tax – which is not the same thing as in if you farm without emitting then you don't pay. I then told them that they were really just a front for the National Party at which point I received some hysterical troll responses.

    They get angry unless you tell them what they want to hear.

    • Incognito 3.1

      I see that …

      I see nothing because you haven’t provided a single link besides a vague reference to Stuff.

    • Andy 3.2

      How do you farm without emitting? This seems like an impossibility to me.

      Every human activity has some emissions attached to them

      • weka 3.2.1

        net zero carbon. You sequester more GHGs than you produce. This means transitioning to regenerative models that build soil, biodiversity and grow forests, as well as reducing the GHG emitting practices and stopping relying on pay to pollute carbon credit schemes.

        This is physically possible. The main blocks are economic, political and philosophical. I favour subsidising farms to transition, but farmers have to be on board. We also can't do industrial farming at the scale we currently do, so we need to transition our economy at the same time.

        • Andy 3.2.1.1

          I'm generally in agreement about the large scale dairy farms we have here in Canterbury. However I know many local farmers with small holdings who claim they will go out of business as a result of these new laws

          • weka 3.2.1.1.1

            that's tough, and again, I would support the government assisting family farms including small ones, to transition. Continuing to farm without taking climate and ecology into account is not a solution to their problem. Groundswell can't help them. I hope someone sorts that out though, because we don't need small family farms being bought up by corporations either.

            • bwaghorn 3.2.1.1.1.1

              The small family farm is terminal, land prices mean that it's only a matter of time before they are all gone,

              • weka

                can't see how that follows, unless farmers sell their family land on the open market.

                • bwaghorn

                  I know a guy spent the last 30 years on the family farm on low wages, 10 years of it nursing the parents as well as running the farm , the siblings want their cut now , the farms not big enough to pay the mortgage on the 3 to 4 mill he'd have to borrow to pay them out.

                  Occasionally parents can structure it to hand it down , but it will usually involve getting bigger, and most likely at some point it will be to dare to hand down,

                  The family farm is terminal it just might be a long slow death for some.

                  • weka

                    the problem there is the decisions of the parents. Not being overly critical, lots of people are like this and don't sort this stuff out until it's too late. But there are other options to just selling up and splitting the money.

                    And if the parents want all the kids to have an equal share and thus are ok with the farm being sold, then they’re ok with it no longer being a family farm. That’s on them.

                    • weka

                      bearing in mind that my parents' generation were the ones where the farm got left to the oldest boy and the girls were supposed to marry farmers if they wanted a farming life.

                      I’ve also seen the farmers who inherited a farm but then when they want to retire they want bought out. So yeah, the land prices are a huge problem, but there are other factors here too.

                      I know a farming family who put the farm into a trust and now the kids and their mum run it and when she dies the kids will run and I guess their kids when they have them.

                    • weka

                      I just think that people who think money is more important than land are insane, but that does describe most of society 🤷‍♀️

      • Incognito 3.2.2

        Not every human activity has or is for a profit motive. Profit per se is not the issue anyway, it is about businesses paying their fair share and including this into their business models.

  4. DB Brown 4

    The banks tell us we must stop buying silly smashed avocadoes – officially! They have come to save us all from inflation by taking every cent we have left. They have come to save us from leaky homes by fire-saling the houses. They have come to stop the silly notion of anyone but the chosen rich accumulating capital by taking it all back.

    Questions?

    • Incognito 4.1

      Which “banks” or do you mean the RBNZ?

      The RBNZ is also telling you to hold on to your job and enjoy your pay-rise while you can, because it is projecting unemployment starting to rise in 2023, which just so happens to be election year.

      • weka 4.1.1

        so to add to DB's list, "the banks" are also saying, sorry beneficiaries, better luck next time.

      • arkie 4.1.2

        The official statement being:

        employment is beyond its maximum sustainable level

        https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/479336/official-cash-rate-raised-by-75-basis-points-to-4-point-25-percent

        Gotta maintain precariousness for workers. How else can we ‘encourage’ them to accept insufficient wage increases and unimproved working conditions.

        • Incognito 4.1.2.1

          Yes, but to those of us who are not schooled in even basic economics such as I it is not clear what that really means. That article doesn’t mention the RBNZ projections of the unemployment rate over the next 3 years and they are dire. It does, however, mention recession three times! The Proletariat will shrink, the Precariat will grow and NACT + NZF will ride in as our economic saviours and apply the razor gangs to government spending, including social welfare. As they always do because they are a one-trick pony with the memory of a goldfish.

          • arkie 4.1.2.1.1

            We interpret the term 'maximum sustainable employment' (MSE) or full employment to mean the level of employment at which the job market is tight, but not so tight that inflation is rising out of control.

            More formally, we define MSE as the highest use of labour resources that can be sustained over time without creating a sustained acceleration in inflation.

            https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/about-monetary-policy/inflation-and-maximum-sustainable-employment

            What is interesting about the RBNZs position regarding MSE, is that we had increasing inflation before wage growth rates began rising. It's almost as if workers don't have anything to do with setting prices, the actual origin of inflation.

            • Incognito 4.1.2.1.1.1

              My limited understanding of it is that headline inflation was high to start with, because of Covid and other global issues, and this is starting to feed into core inflation such as the MSE and wage inflation. I guess our economy, like so many others, was and is not resilient enough to weather so many large shocks in rapid succession.

              • arkie

                Whatever the source of inflation, it is those least responsible for rising prices who are already bearing the brunt of its effects. It's apparently unreasonable to expect lower margins of those businesses that have enjoyed rising profits despite COVID and other global issues.

                • Incognito

                  It's apparently unreasonable to expect lower margins … [my italics]

                  What do you mean? How is this apparent [to you]? How do you envision RBNZ and/or Government to control or influence those margins?

                  Yes, of course, the people at the bottom always suffer most and will always suffer more when things get worse. Rightly or wrongly, this Government does acknowledge this with the CoL adjustment, for example. However, RBNZ sees it as a contributing factor to stubbornly high household spending:

                  Household spending has stayed elevated, despite high inflation, rising interest rates, falling house prices and uncertainty about the global outlook. Recent spending has been supported by high employment, increasing wages, cost of living payments, and savings built up by households during COVID-19 lockdowns. [my italics]

                  https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/884276dd2ebb4962b325130eef7ae725.ashx

                  • arkie

                    It is apparent because the call from the RBNZ is for reduced consumer spending, not restricted profit margins. Monetary policy has significant lag and it is not always as effective as hoped.

                    Seeing that we must consume to live and that inflation in the cost of living (a ghoulish term when examined) has been rising faster than wages, a interventionist government could clamp down on these costs through price controls, rent controls, excess profit tax and other fiscal policies.

                    The Cost of Living Payment was unwise IMO and not directed properly. A reduction in tax liability for those at bottom would have been a much better move.

                    • Molly

                      "It is apparent because the call from the RBNZ is for reduced consumer spending, not restricted profit margins. "

                      That is a distinction that should be acknowledged.

                    • Incognito

                      I’m not aware of RBNZ having anything in their tool kit to adjust or influence profit margins in the private sector.

                      Yes, price controls are an option and Government is making moves on those. Of course, the rent freeze has ended but the HRC has called for a return.

                      https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/472987/human-rights-commission-says-freeze-on-rent-increases-should-return

                      Petrol is still 25 cts. off per litre, PT fares are still discounted. The fuel discount also benefits the transporting industry, which unsurprisingly have asked for it to remain.

                      https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2022/11/cost-of-living-transporting-nz-calling-for-fuel-tax-cut-to-remain-so-kiwis-can-have-certainty.html

                      There are plenty more examples of how Government shoulders some of the burden of rising costs (inflation) for New Zealanders.

                      Any changes to the tax system can easily backfire and stoke the inflationary fire even further. This is the double-edged sword of given the people more money in the hand which they will spend rather than save and/or pay off debt. Consumer spending needs to come down, not go up.

                      At least that’s my limited understanding of the tricky situation we’re in.

                    • Poission

                      It is apparent because the call from the RBNZ is for reduced consumer spending, not restricted profit margins

                      Its called demand destruction,it removes profits by enforcing providers to reduce margins to retain sales.it works efficiently in highly informed markets such as the US,where the prices fall to meet demand.

                      https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/commodities/lbs

                    • arkie

                      The RBNZs tool kit is limited and their remit is also, I am not expecting them to achieve something that is not within their capabilities. Monetary policy such that it is.

                      The government, however, has a commanding parliamentary majority and control of fiscal policy; which can form much more directed and precise set of tools. While they have made plenty of prudent decisions I would also join those calling on the government for a reinstatement of the rent freeze. It seems to me as an abdication of sorts to the RBNZ; rather than institute the needed redistributive laws.

                      People are relying on the charity, such as food banks, for the bare necessities of life in increasing numbers, but they must some how spend less? If those on the lowest incomes had more spending power they may be able to improve their living conditions, for example, no longer skipping meals, or moving out of the unhealthy rental into something better for them. Targeted tax policy could ensure that, RBNZ policies cannot. Some demand is simply unavoidable. There is also plenty of spending being done by those who do not require philanthropy, more often doling it out. It is the governments role to attempt to solve these inequities.

    • alwyn 4.2

      Which "Banks" (plural) are these?

      The only one I have seen doing anything like this is the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, which is an arm of Government and certainly isn't involved in lending you money to buy your home. There is only one RBNZ so you shouldn't be using a plural like "they".

      • DB Brown 4.2.1

        We all know the 'official' banks follow the lead of RBNZ. It's dishonest to pretend otherwise.

        • Incognito 4.2.1.1

          Those are commercial banks and have completely different ‘mandates’ and accountability compared to RBNZ.

        • James Simpson 4.2.1.2

          Kiwibank is owned by us. Do you think they blindly follow that lead as well?

          If they do then Grant has to reprogramme their reason for being.

    • Molly 4.3

      What is the plan for those currently struggling financially who face rising cost of lving increases?

      For those that may lose their rentals?

      For those that may lose their homes?

      Any chance of measures to counter this stress and disruption?

      Is that enough questions, for now? wink

      • DB Brown 4.3.1

        I can only answer some. That may lose rentals – yes! That may lose homes – yes! I base my answers on historical precedent. This is a modern day land grab, as predicted, so blatantly obviously the same old same old.

        Measures to counter this would have been to stop corporates jacking the price of everything and RBNZ not leading the charge to fuck all the little guys.

        • Molly 4.3.1.1

          "Measures to counter this would have been to stop corporates jacking the price of everything and RBNZ not leading the charge to fuck all the little guys."

          Yes. Making the impacts on little guys a political priority would be a start.

          • DB Brown 4.3.1.1.1

            Little guys, and maybe I meant middle guys.

            First home owners, not speculators, whose house should not be some widget in the enormous games of finance these fools play. I'm pissed off. Why were they (Government, RBNZ) all allowing so much practically free money to be lent out. And everyone BUY BUY BUY! We saw it coming, if we were meant to be paying attention and didn't… we were asleep. Everyone gets overextended and… hey presto, interest goes up, land grab.

            They had the gall to tell us on the news last night those with savings are better off. Like it all balances out, this periodic stealing of people's life savings, via draining them trying to pay interest, then mortgagee sales, to further the rich.

      • Visubversa 4.3.2

        I have an arrangement with my Bank that I pay the minimum fortnightly payment. That has not changed in the 4 years I have had the current mortgage. When interests rates were very low during Covid I was paying more principal and less interest. Now that rates are going up, I pay less principal and more interest. My fortnightly payment does not change.

        The only thing that changes is the term of the loan. The date of final payment stretches out further and further. This does not bother me in the slightest – I will be long dead by then and the loan will be paid when either I, or my estate sells the property.

        I bought my house over 40 years ago. I was paying 6% on the first mortgage and 9% on the second mortgage. I was single then (in the eyes of the State anyway) so I got flatmates in to help with the outgoings. In the bad days of the mid 1980's I had paid off the second mortgage, but was paying something like 17% on the first mortgage. I was lucky because my first mortgage was with Housing NZ because I bought in an area where the Government of the time was attempting to encourage home ownership. Other people were paying over 20% interest.

        I was also lucky because I always had work.

        • Jimmy 4.3.2.1

          You do not sound that 'lucky' to me. You bought the property over 40 years ago and still have a mortgage on it? Sounds to me like your bank has done you no favours and has made a lot of money at your expense. You should probably get a good mortgage broker and some sound financial advice.

          • Visubversa 4.3.2.1.1

            I have this mortgage now because when I paid off the original amount in 1992, I did not actually discharge the mortgage – just left it sitting there for nearly 3 decades. I borrowed against it again 4 years ago when I retired in order to fund an extensive upgrade of part of the dwelling (which at 90 odd years old was badly needed) and I rent out that part while living in the other part myself.

          • Incognito 4.3.2.1.2

            You should probably get a good mortgage broker and some sound financial advice.

            Listen to yourself and take you own advice: https://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-05-10-2022/#comment-1913857.

            • Jimmy 4.3.2.1.2.1

              Yes I will speak to myself. As its an offset mortgage and is completely offset the rate increasing wont affect me.

              • Incognito

                That sounds very smart but offset mortgages are at floating interest rate or higher and your comment makes no sense; your interest payments will go up too.

                • Craig H

                  Only on the portion not offset – if it's fully offset (which is how I read the comment), no interest is charged. On the other hand, it's not much of a mortgage if it is fully offset – a mortgage in name only perhaps?

  5. Muttonbird 5

    Loving the irony of Black Friday sale ads merrily sprinkled between the RBNZ pleading for people not to spend. This is the problem with capitalism, everyone constantly rowing against each other, sending out competing messages.

    RBNZ says don't spend but every industry, everywhere, especially retail banking, says umm, no.

    Covid relief was supposed to be security in uncertain times. What did middle New Zealand do? Went out and bought investment properties, fucking muppets.

    • Tiger Mountain 5.1

      Yes indeed, and various jackals are now gleefully buying property at lower prices. We sold six months back to move, in no rush, and the agent was really offended we held out for a less speculative buyer.

      Unemployment will save us says the RB–yet–employers demand urgent imports of migrant labour. Which is really a call for low wages.

  6. Anker 6

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/sandringham-homicide-the-worst-has-happened-manhunt-under-way-as-community-left-shocked/DMOJJJWROZA3PA7RTK4SLNVHXU/

    heartbreaking. Young guy in his 20s – 30s recently married. Stabbed while at work.

    An absolute tragedy. My condolences to friends and family in this community, including the owners who were away on holiday.

    • SomeNewGuy 6.1

      It's sad to see crime appearing to be on the increase – violent crime especially.

      I did a training session at work recently about safety awareness. One of the questions the speaker asked was would you feel safer working in a bank or a dairy (in relation to the threat of robbery and/or the potential for violence)?

      Everyone said dairy

      • Molly 6.1.1

        They said safer in a dairy?

        Don't they read the new? Did the session allow for determining why they felt that way?

        • SomeNewGuy 6.1.1.1

          Sorry – meant that they felt less safe in the dairy. My typing error

          A sad state of affairs. Being a dairy owner is a dangerous profession these days

          • Molly 6.1.1.1.1

            All good. laugh

            That makes more sense.

          • Visubversa 6.1.1.1.2

            That is because there has been a lot of target hardening in other places. Service stations used to be easy targets, – not any more. Dairies – with their windows covered in advertising and run by family members, are the softest target around at the moment.

            • Muttonbird 6.1.1.1.2.1

              This is a good point. As other retail businesses improve their security and minimise risk, criminals will look for easier targets.

              When you get burgled the police come around and talk about steps you can take to make your house/car a less attractive target.

              • SomeNewGuy

                I have noticed some diaries starting to increase their security but I think there needs to be some consistency. I can't remember which of the big players owns 4 Square but they should be rolling out something to all their stores (though from what I know they are franchises)

                • Craig H

                  They are part of the Foodstuffs Cooperative along with Pak 'n' Save and New World – technically not a franchise, but certainly looks and acts like one most of the time.

          • Incognito 6.1.1.1.3

            I think you meant occupation.

            • SomeNewGuy 6.1.1.1.3.1

              Well, whatever – you know what I meant

              • Incognito

                Yeah, you mean you are sloppy with words & meanings.

                • SomeNewGuy

                  No – I just wasn't really thinking about it too deeply

                  • Incognito

                    Yes, that was obvious, as was your annoying typo earlier on 🙁

                  • weka

                    no, there is no problem. My suggestion is walk away from this convo and just focus on other ones that appeal 👍

                    • Incognito

                      I’m afraid that won’t work, this time.

                    • weka

                      I have no idea what you are doing, but if it's a moderation issue, then moderate. If it's not, then hassling someone new like this is both rude and not great for the site. It also reflects badly on moderation.

                    • SomeNewGuy

                      No no, Incognito has obviously looked at my email address, matched with a previous account then is using it to needle me. I had no intention of trolling or the like – just wanted to get into some conversation again but, well, I think s/he has made themselves clear.

                    • weka []

                      if it’s a moderation issue, then it needs to be dealt with as moderation not trolling someone.

                      I’ve had a look at your email and IP address. Email address is fine. IP address is shared with someone else who is currently active on TS. If that’s you using two names, then you cannot do that. Some mods will allow a name change for a good reason, others taking a harder line, but either way you cannot run two names here at the same time.

                      If there is a different explanation for the same IP address, then please explain. Otherwise, please drop pick one name and stick to it.

                      Making a note in the back end.

                    • SomeNewGuy

                      The IP address matches someone else's? That's weird.

                      Without betraying confidence/someone elses details is the person I share an email address with a long time user here? Because it isn't me – I only have one account but am on a large network.

                    • weka []

                      Unfortunately for you, I’ve now looked more closely at the email address and see it’s similar to someone who’s on a permanent ban because of a long history of trolling and causing problems for moderators by trying to skirt bans. I’m putting you on the ban list again. If you think this is a mistake, then reply and your comment will end up in the back end where I will see it.

                      At some point lprent will do an amnesty on the permanent bans. At which point I suggest that if you want to comment here you pick one name, stick to it, and keep your head down.

                    • SomeNewGuy

                      Oh right – sorry it's been so long I had forgotten I was banned. I knew my email would be picked up but hadn't remembered the ban.

                      That's OK, no amnesty required nor asked for. I'll just do something else with my time.

                      Enjoy yourself 🙂

    • Muttonbird 6.2

      Have to wonder what sort of training this guy had to deal with such a dangerous situation.

      • Anker 6.2.1

        I am not sure what sort of training such businesses offer.

        they are usually family run and they work 24/7. My family owned such a business when I was growing up. The work is endless.

        your comment does hint at a blame the victim approach. Was that what you were meaning or have I misinterpreted you? My apologies if I have. The blame lies with the a…hole who stabbed the worker to death.

        • Muttonbird 6.2.1.1

          No doubt about where the blame lies but, family owned business or not, employers must provide proper training for staff.

          Not saying they didn't but these incidents are more likely not to end in tragedy if the retail worker doesn't resist.

          Also could be that he didn't resist and the perpetrator attacked him anyway.

          • Sabine 6.2.1.1.1

            Right, and who do you think should provide the training to the bosses? The police? The military?

            Who do you think is equipped in NZ currently to ward off some shitheel with a knife? Would you be trained enough?

            The last knife attacker is now in a female prison for attacking three people, inclusive his/their ex girlfriend who will have lasting scars in her face. And these victims simply had the audacity to go to a restaurant for a dinner and thought that was safe in NZ.

      • Sabine 6.2.2

        My shop girls training is simply.

        If you think dudes/ettes outside are shifty, close the door – which we do a lot now a days.

        They will have to break the door, and by that time she should be able to get out the back door.

        No heroics, no nothing. Just try to get out and not worry about a single thing or a single cent. Money is replacable, a cut up face is for live. IF you can't get away, give them the contents of the till, if they want a coffee to go with that , make that coffee, pack the box of chocolates and wish them a good day. Anything to stay unharmed and alive.

        But in fact there is no training that can help you to get a way from someone who just simply has no respect for others, for society or their communities.

        What will happen now is that Dairys will arm themselves, will hopefully always have a two people policies – if they don't have for the most part even more CCTV that they already have and if all falters, just shut. Because clearly it onus is on us to keep us alive, the police will come to mop up what is left over if the robbery/raid goes wrong, and of course lay a charge for murder or assault.

  7. Anker 7
    • Agree with all of that Muttonbird
  8. tsmithfield 8

    If the government is serious about winning the next election, and helping those at risk of being impacted by rising mortgage rates, then the government should change the target inflation range temporarilly to reflect the reality of the economic situation.

    Those at risk don't only include mortgage holders. But also likely tenants who may face rent increases to cover increasing mortgage costs incurred by landlords.

    If a lot of the inflation is imported, then, that component of inflation will not be affected. So, the only way to bring inflation back within the target band is to basically force NZ into a full-blown recession.

    I think the target rate for the next three years should be say 3-5%, which would be much more achievable with a lot less pain.

    • Muttonbird 8.1

      I was trying to find some data to refute your claim,

      But also likely tenants who may face rent increases to cover increasing mortgage costs incurred by landlords.

      which I just don't think is true, at least not to the same scale of increase or remotely close to it. I do note you have couched your claim using the words, "likely", and "may".

      There's this GA article from 2014. Best line is first in the comments section,

      I read a lot about this also on interest, but the most obvious thing is that rents are paid from real money, out of real people income, sweat, work and productivity, that is finite. Houses are paid with fake bank money that don’t exist, so they can be as expensive as many zero you can put on a computer screen. Banks want houses to be more expensive, so they give you more fake money and so on, while we all get poorer. If we started listening a bit less to the Economists (with capital E) and a bit more on our brain cells, we would all be better off.

      • tsmithfield 8.1.1

        It is true to the extent that landlords will try to pass on their costs to tenants if they are able to. Of course, market conditions may not allow that. For instance, if there is a glut of houses on the market. So, it isn't given.

    • Incognito 8.2

      I think the target rate for the next three years should be say 3-5%, which would be much more achievable with a lot less pain.

      Lovely thought, but please explain how you’d ensure employment and price stability at those inflated rates.

      • tsmithfield 8.2.1

        Firstly, within a historical context, the inflation rate has been much higher in the past reaching an eye-watering 17% in 1987. So, I am not sure that 3-5% inflation is intolerable for several years, given the extra-ordinary times we have been through, and that the RB did cock things up a bit.

        Secondly, adjusting the inflation target range is not without historical precedent. For instance, in 1996 the target range moved from 0-2% to 0-3%.

        If we do have a recession, there is no guarantee it will be shallow, and it may cost a lot of jobs. But applying the handbrake a bit slower may allow a lot of jobs to be saved.

        • Incognito 8.2.1.1

          You didn’t answer the question, just beating around the bush.

          • tsmithfield 8.2.1.1.1

            Even if the RB crashes the economy, there still won't be price stability. For instance, we import a lot of stuff as part of my company. Prices have gone up at least 30% from most suppliers over the last several years. There is no sign that imported inflation is going to end any time soon.

            What will happen though, in a recession, is a lot of people will lose their jobs, and there will be a lot of hardship that could be avoided by taking a more measured approach to bringing down inflation. It is not the fault of voters that the RB way over-stimulated the economy. Yet they are being expected to take the medicine to fix it.

            Someone pays one way or another whether target inflation range stays the same or is increased temporarilly to a more realistic level. That is through either slightly higher prices, but lower interest rates. Or higher interest rates, and slightly lower prices.

            • Poission 8.2.1.1.1.1

              One of the understood effects of the OCR tightening is the currency appreciation.There are 2 parts here the appreciation of the US$ as a reserve currency with large reservoirs for liquid assets such as cash,and the differential in the interest rates (with forex risk)

              Here with the OCR being largely forecast there has been an appreciation of 10% since the start of oct,against the US$.This in turn reduces the cost of imports along with reducing the freight and insurance component ( freight rates now back to around pre covid)

              The question you need to ask your supplier is why the price has not adjusted.

  9. pat 9

    "Increasingly National’s election pitch is simply that they are “not Labour”. But is that really enough during an economic recession? Does National have any policies of substance that might help navigate the current economic crisis? Even if voters punish Labour for mismanaging the economy, there are no signs that they should have confidence that National would do any better."

    https://democracyproject.nz/2022/11/24/bryce-edwards-politicians-and-the-reserve-bank-are-being-blamed-for-an-escalating-economic-crisis/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=bryce-edwards-politicians-and-the-reserve-bank-are-being-blamed-for-an-escalating-economic-crisis

    History would suggest not being the incumbent will be sufficient

    • Maurice 9.1

      When a Government takes from more people than it gives too or does not give enough to those who believe they deserve more then a majority is formed for its demise. The major problem is inflation which takes from many and gives to few – so once the incumbent Government is blamed for "letting inflation get out of control" it is on the way to being toast.

      • pat 9.1.1

        The current Gov may have a lot to answer for but in reality the current economic situation has been little influenced by them, this situation has been building since 2008 , and as is noted in the linked piece that will butter no parsnips for the electorate come next year.

  10. Muttonbird 10

    Question: Why the first house price spike 2002-2008?

    While looking for something else I saw again the there has been constant and severe house price inflation in NZ for 20 years now, briefly interrupted by the GFC. We know about 2010-2018 (Jong Khee), and 2020-2021 (Covid relief).

    Why did the 2002-2008 spike occur? Accelerated immigration? Free trade deal with China? Is it just the cost of open tap neoliberal economics?

    I suspect it is, which is why I applaud this government's commitment to managing immigration and foreign capital interference in the residential housing market.

    • weka 10.1

      it's also because the Retirement Commissioner spent years telling NZ to invest in property. That alongside the narrative that we couldn't afford superannuation any more and people needed to save for their own retirement. It was very anti-socialist/pro neolib.

      • Sabine 10.1.1

        Yes, i remember that. And the re-zoning of residential properties/zones to mixed which resulted in many nice villas being turned into offices, dental clinics and the likes. These lost residential houses were never replaced.

      • Craig H 10.1.2

        There was also the share market collapse in 1987 causing the losses of retirement savings of many, so for some, property probably would at least be worth something, unlike shares which can theoretically become worthless.

        I also wonder how much impact Rich Dad, Poor Dad had – the book had more to it than "buy underpriced real estate using leverage", but that was probably the main message people took from it. It was published in 1997 and was a big seller, and I could see that message slowly percolating through to NZ after the 1997 Asian financial crisis as the economy first recovered in 1998-9 and then picked up steam under Labour.

    • RosieLee 10.2

      Would you like to produce some evidence to support your last sentence?

    • Visubversa 10.3

      I remember a real slump in house prices in 1991. I was overseas for most of 1990 and I remember when I came back giving some serious thought to buying an investment property in early 1991 as there was quite a glut on the market. I did decide not to – which was probably wise.

  11. RosieLee 11

    Can we please get rid of these repulsive commercial American holidays like black friday and thanksgiving? They are not New Zealand.

  12. Jenny are we there yet 12

    '

    Engineering a Recession

    Those that have shall be given more, and they will have an abundance. But those that do not have, even what they have, will be taken away from them.

    Matthew 25:29

    The OCR: What you need to know

    RNZ Business

    12:46 pm on 23 November 2022

    …… increasing the OCR, the cost to consumers of borrowing money from their banks also increases, and as consumers find themselves spending more of their take-home pay on servicing their debts, they have less money to spend on other things.

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/top/479330/the-ocr-what-you-need-to-know

    Banks made record profits, there was no pandemic for them. Rents, mortgages still had to be paid even under lock down.

    To keep up with paying higher interest rates demanded by the banksters. Adrian Orr says the public will have to cut their spending,

    Adrian Orr has also linked higher unemployment to job competition as the answer to 'wage inflation'.

    Adrian Orr says unemployment must rise, before inflation, (particularly wage inflation) will be brought under control.

    Bigger mortgage payments, less wages, more unemployment, more job competition, this is all sweet music to the banksters and bosses.

    Listening to the car radio. Newstalk ZB, a representative of the banking community said; Can't meet your new mortgage interest rate. Talk to us. 'We can help. 'We don't want to see you out of your home.' 'We are here for the long haul'. (And so are you).

    Bought at the high end of the housing market?
    Feeling squeezed between inadequate wage increases and high interest rates?

    Go to your local bank manager and beg for mercy like the desperate wretch you are, He will see what he can do for you. Agree to a mortgage holiday, or longer period of payment, he will let you stay in your home to work longer to pay off your mortgage.

    The March of the Greedies;

    Adrian Orr admits Reserve Bank is 'deliberately engineering recession'

    Tom Pullar-Strecker 10:02, Nov 24 2022

    Orr told Parliament’s Finance and Expenditure select committee it was correct that the Reserve Bank was engineering a recession, saying it was deliberately trying to slow spending in the economy.

    "….You know, if you just start behaving, ‘1% different’ around inflation expectations and wage growth that makes our job easier."

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/130568638/adrian-orr-admits-reserve-bank-is-deliberately-engineering-recession

    Reserve Bank manager, Adrian Orr. also says government spending must be cut.

    (Y'know, health care, education, welfare all that unnecessary stuff that gets in the way of maximising bankster profits).

    …..Adrian Orr's message to think harder about spending – or "cool the jets" – isn't just for the public. He has told the Government to spend sensibly or risk even higher inflation.

    https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2022/11/reserve-bank-governor-adrian-orr-apologises-as-nz-braces-for-economic-suffering-admits-purposely-manufacturing-recession.html?

    • Ad 12.1

      No one should expect their investment to be underwritten by taxpayers. You are responsible for your own risk more than banks are.

      Hindsight won't be kind to this government wasting billions on non-delivered services. Robertson may think the RB is overreacting, but honestly so did Robertson.

      • Poission 12.1.1

        The fed minutes last night said they showed a greater then even chance (likely) of recession,.The IIF models forecast recession,so it is an expected outcome from high inflation and the necessary mechanism to curb animal spirits,through the forced extinction of Zombie companies,that take easy capital and transform it into empty pixels such as the removal in value of 2.2 trillion $ in crypto,or the deleveraging of property values.

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