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Open mike 05/10/2022

Written By: - Date published: 6:00 am, October 5th, 2022 - 130 comments
Categories: open mike - Tags:


Open mike is your post.

For announcements, general discussion, whatever you choose.

The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy).

Step up to the mike …

130 comments on “Open mike 05/10/2022 ”

  1. Ad 1

    Big day for the New Zealand Labour government as it opens up its books to reveal its true level of debt. This is what it cost to keep us at 3.4% unemployed and not sinking into social anomie. And the Reserve Bank puts the choke on us all with another rate rise.

    And Robertson has to watch Labor Australia's budget as well. The previous government had tax cuts are already legislated, and due to come into effect in July 2024. The changes create a 30% flat tax rate for anyone earning between $45,000 and $200,000. Flattening the tax scales costs the budget $244bn over 10 years. My bet is Labor says they can't afford that and reverse the tax cuts. This would align the objectives of fiscal and monetary policy, which is important when the RBA is trying to subdue inflation with the very blunt instrument of rate hikes. That is a tough process that belts leveraged working families through higher borrowing costs.

    I expect our government to just keep borrowing and subsidising us more because most of us don't earn as much as Australians and we are simply more brittle. More debt will now come at a pretty high political price from ascendant Act and National.

    Tough day at the office.

    • Jimmy 1.1

      Is my floating mortgage going up by 0.25% or 0.5%?

      • AB 1.1.1

        Your mortgage (if you really have one) is keeping me afloat via marginally better returns on bank deposits. And those deposits mostly come from a lifetime of saving. If you want to construct society as a competition, you'll have to accept that sometimes you win and sometimes you lose.

      • Incognito 1.1.2

        Ask your bank.

    • Sabine 1.2

      Come to Rotorua, check out your local level of unemployment which sits at 11% and realise that Labour is no where to see and has no plans and will not come to town to pretend they have plans lest the local populaces shows up to pelt them with rotten eggs and tomatoes.

      Mind, all of this is coming to a town near you in soon enough time. That is all Labours books is going to show.

      • Ad 1.2.1

        Similar stories in a lot of regional towns.

        Te Kao. Kaitaia. Kaeo. Kaikohe. Go through the North Island starting from the top.

        • DB Brown 1.2.1.1

          None of those towns were going anywhere a decade ago. You trying to put that on Labour is disingenuous at best.

          Just another chance to seethe. Sad AF.

          • Ad 1.2.1.1.1

            It's on any government. Labour is the current one.

            Just another chance to act.

            Just another chance not to be a LINO.

          • Jack 1.2.1.1.2

            The absolute destruction of Rotorua is 100% on Labour

            • Tricledrown 1.2.1.1.2.1

              Nothing to do with the lack of Tourism due to Covid.Lack of investment by National who control most rural electorates knowing they vote National mostly.National love high unemployment because it keeps wages down ,keeps inflation under control, then they bully the poor blaming the poor for political gain.

              [please correct typo in your e-mail address, thanks]

          • Sabine 1.2.1.1.3

            You go tell yourself that every day now, and hope to hell that what was done to Rotorua is not coming to a place near you.

            • bwaghorn 1.2.1.1.3.1

              Other than the mechanization of looking killing jobs what else was done to rotorua?

              Genuine?

              • Molly

                Along with other struggling individuals and communities – not considered a priority to identify and/or help?

          • Adrian Thornton 1.2.1.1.4

            Yep, true that, we moved to Hastings about 20 odd years ago, and this town was in a very sorry state indeed…consequently commercial rents where low in the city back then as well, so starting a business was at least a viable option.

            Also now I think about it, back then working on a orchard picking fruit paid pretty well, there where several established big industries that also afforded reasonable social mobility through pretty decent wages and job stability…all that is now gone….it seems very obvious that something inherent within the capitalist free market economic ideology that both Labour and National are both adherents of, is seriously wrong..and of course the poor and workers pay the highest price for us all being tied to a broken economic ideology

          • Janet 1.2.1.1.5

            I can remember Northland topping 19% unemployed back in the 80,s and that was with out a pandemic and climate change moves to complicate things.

            • Tricledrown 1.2.1.1.5.1

              ACT's answer to the rural unemployment problem and Nationals by default is to move the unemployed to the big population center's where there are jobs.But no housing or support networks.Winston had his $1 billion dollar a year provincial growth fund which was dropped by Labour so neither of the major parties have a rural investment policy.

              [please correct typo in your e-mail address, thanks]

              • Incognito

                Mod note

              • psych nurse

                Winston wasted 30 million on synthetic racecourses, one at Riccarton not in a provincial area. They are fast becoming a liability not used by racing participants as they are becoming an animal welfare issue with a huge number of breakdowns and deaths of horses. The money could have been better used to support provincial growth.

        • Sabine 1.2.1.2

          Tauranga. Tokoroa. Taupo. Whakatane. Gisborne. and so on and so forth.

          There is a reason we don't ever see regional unemployment numbers and just the 'average'.

      • Rotorua has always been mainly right wing. Your attitude does not surprise me!! When National Act get in and your "Good times' angryfail to materialise, I want to see you bitching here.

        Tell me what are they offering?… no Policy yet, and the same old crew, plus Uffy.

        • Ad 1.2.2.1

          Inhale into the paper bag, and take a trip to Rotorua or one of those other hardbitten towns Patricia.

          Rage and denial doesn't help.

          • Sanctuary 1.2.2.1.1

            The impact of prosperity/poverty is highly uneven across provincial NZ. Some areas are going remarkably well. I am amazed at the prosperity in Hawkes Bay these days, and any town that is associated with things that go "Moo" is looking most smart indeed.

            However, towns and regions associated with defunct industry or structurally stuck with "emerging economy" ownership models and politics (i.e. Northland) are still struggling to make headway. Those places have generational problems that have been festering for forty years.

            • Ad 1.2.2.1.1.1

              The Hastings-Napier Heretaunga Plains are doing great.

              Go further north to Wairoa and inland, or south anywhere from Marakakaho to Eketahuna.

              Ain't pretty. The Deprivation Index still tells the compelling story.

              • Sanctuary

                Agreed Wairoa is basket case – The provincial villages – they are not really towns – outside of the dairy boom zone are all really, really dire.

              • Adrian Thornton

                "The Hastings-Napier Heretaunga Plains are doing great"…..not sure if know this, but the Napier water front on the Awatoto end is the semi permanent base of the homeless who live in their cars and tents..often whole families…most of our motels are taken up with homeless people also, rents are outrageously high…and also not sure if you are aware of the despicable way many of the RSE workers have been, and I am reliably informed, still are being treated?…which of course the corporate owners and orchard managers are well aware of….

                So yeah if you are ok normalizing homelessness, rent gouging and worker exploitation, then I guess you could say that "The Hastings-Napier Heretaunga Plains are doing great"…personally I am not at all OK with normalizing any of the above, but then I am on the Left Wing of politics, so of course I don't.

            • Patricia Bremner 1.2.2.1.1.2

              yes Yes Sanctuary, correct. These are long standing problems made worse by covid.

            • Siobhan 1.2.2.1.1.3

              We must live in a different Hawkes Bay. The levels of homelessness, the schools that are resigned to being nothing more than holding pens for feral children ..the appalling hopelessness of people on hospital waiting lists,…lets face it ..we live in a Society that has fully embraced the idea of inequality, literally right under peoples noses, as being just the norm, barely worth noticing, as long as the Poors (of all ages) keep to their own ghettos where we don't have to see them,…..while the property developers make nice precincts for the liberal class to mill around in….either that or we have to talk ourselves into thinking we live in an area that totally transformed over the last 5 years..

              "In the HBDHB, 29.1% (64/220) of data zones were in NZ's 20% most income deprived, while only 12.7% (28/220) of data zones were in the 20% least income deprived. The median income deprivation rank in the HBDHB was 3755, 13.0% (776 ranks) worse than the NZ median.17/10/2017"

              • Drowsy M. Kram

                ..we live in a Society that has fully embraced the idea of inequality, literally right under peoples noses, as being just the norm, barely worth noticing, as long as the Poors (of all ages) keep to their own ghettos where we don't have to see them

                Well said – sad but true, and maybe this is as good as it gets. Time will tell.

          • Patricia Bremner 1.2.2.1.2

            Blow in a paper bag yourself.

            I live here, and it is far better than during the GFC.

            So much bitching moaning and hyperbole!!

            Good luck with Luxon, his worst won't affect us, but I feel utterly sorry for the duped.

            • Ad 1.2.2.1.2.1

              Rotorua Council's own pre-election analysis for everyone to read demonstrates a scary and damning decline, and shows with facts how wrong you are.

              'Scary and damning' report paints grim picture of state of Rotorua | Stuff.co.nz

              Read the report Patricia. Do something besides empty cheering.

              • Ad, do something yourself!! You are not 80!!

                Those Stuff reporters came looking for “the bad stuff” aided and abetted by National. Will they do anything for those people they currently shed crocodile tears over? Hell no. Not a thing!!!
                We have more homes being built in Rotorua than any other time. More land being zoned for building and intensification.
                As a lawyer you know how long that takes to get underway. All areas have problems made worse by the Pandemic. With one and three quarter million cases, 10% with long covid… yes we all have problems.
                Rotorua housing homeless in the many motels that used to be Tourist havens is one problem. It is being worked on, to say otherwise is stretching the truth.

                • PsyclingLeft.Always

                  Patricia, if people 20 years…(hell 50 years!) younger than "your age", had your level of nous…and, that most uncommon combination with Empathy, NZ….well, Our Blue Dot would be so well off. It would be literally a Good Place.

                  Keep up your observations. I always read with Interest. And Respect.

                • Ad

                  I've done the work for you below.

                  Two electoral terms is time for political accountability.

            • Adrian Thornton 1.2.2.1.2.2

              "So much bitching moaning and hyperbole!!"….I would like to see you go and say that to one of the families living in their cars on our Napier waterfront….yes National are bad, that goes without saying…but understand that Labour have tied themselves to the mast of a fast sinking failed Freemarket Capitalist economic ideology that is nothing less than a Death Cult at this point, that is just a sad but unavoidable fact.

              In reality as it stand today, we really only have the option of National driving the train directly toward the cliff…or Labour taking the scenic route toward exactly the same cliff.

              Turn Labour Left!

          • Anne 1.2.2.1.3

            Perhaps I'm mistaken, but I thought Patricia once said she was domiciled (my word) in Rotorua in which case she might know what she is talking about.

            • Patricia Bremner 1.2.2.1.3.1

              yes Anne. Thanks. We have a large Maori population 37% Aprox and unemployment and rents always impact them first. ( and Gisborne 52%)

              Our city is beautiful, and well cared for. Every town has its problems, You could take “grotty area “photos anywhere!!

              There are problems, but they are not all on Labour. Forestry changed and jobs went. 1987 on…

              • Sabine

                None so blind as those that don't want to see.

                • Were you here during the GFC Sabine?

                  • Sabine

                    I do.

                    and that is why i say what i said. And that is why i will repeat what i said.

                    namely that what was done to Rotorua, or Tauranga, or Auckland or any of our towns is criminal.

                    And Jacinda and her motely crew of highly paid fuck ups should be driven from this country.

                    • Anker

                      Iam inclined to agree Sabine. But don't think they should be driven from the country as such. But it is looking more and more likely they will be voted out.

                      BTW did you see the TOP announcement on tax? They will make the first $15,000 tax free and then 20% tax rate up to $80,000. They will pay for this with a tax on land .75%. They say land records are well kept and not so possible to dodge paying. Superannunants can defer paying until they pass away.

                      They are also going to give some billon dollars to community housing organisations to build more housing.

                      And they are going to write off beneficiary debt.

                      First time in a long while, I felt some optimism that things could change, but I don't want to get my hopes up too much.

                    • Drowsy M. Kram

                      And Jacinda and her motely crew of highly paid fuck ups should be driven from this country.

                      Maybe that would 'fix' things – maybe that would make thing worse (always a possiblity). Time will tell, whenever.

                      Tbh, I don't understand why people are clinging to the (imho) unrealistic expectation that things will get better.

                      The certainty of ever-growing living standards we grew up with under Queen Elizabeth is at an end [13 Sept 2022]

                      The end of certainty
                      How long did that “long 20th century” last? DeLong thinks it ended in 2010, making it a long century of 140 years. Since the global financial crisis, we have been unable to return economic growth to anything like the pace of those 140 glorious years.

                      Today, DeLong says material wealth remains criminally” unevenly distributed. And even for those who have enough, it doesn’t seem to make us happy – at least “not in a world where politicians and others prosper mightily from finding new ways to make and keep people unhappy”.

                      DeLong sees “large system-destabilizing waves of political and cultural anger from masses of citizens, all upset in different ways at the failure of the system of the twentieth century to work for them as they thought that it should”.

              • Sabine

                Forestry – Red Stag Timber, are the only gig left in town.

              • Ad

                Inexcusable cant.

                Rotorua's overall deprivation is 8 with 10 the worst. Some of its suburbs are, from the July report, "among the most deprived communities in New Zealand."

                Maori are about 40% of Rotorua's population and all social issues hit Maori disproportionally. That's 4 out of 10 Rotorua families.

                Almost 30% of households were considered to be in the top 10% of the most vulnerable NZ households. 78% were "performing below the national average."

                About 33% of working-age Maori are unemployed, 41% were not homeowners, 18% do not have access to the internet.

                Housing quality for Maori ranks 56th out of 67 tla's due to damp and mould, and 59th out of 67 for overcrowding.

                Rotorua is ranked 66 out of 67 for all local authorities for crime.

                'Scary' report paints grim picture of Rotorua | Te Ao Māori News (teaomaori.news)

                But if you don't want to hear facts, you can hear the impact of that from the leadership: Te Tatau o Te Arawa chairman Te Taru White said the report was a "recognisable picture. You can't put any sugar over this."

                He said the district was not the same as it had been seven years ago "by a long shot" and he no longer felt safe at night.

                This is not a picture of what you call "grotty photos".

                Labour central were protected from this until recently because Steve Chadwick was an ex Labour MP. The covers are now being pulled off.

                Labour have been in power for two terms and this is not the result of a functioning Labour government.

                • Sabine

                  they don't want to hear that.

                  they really do not want to hear that.

                  they just want to pretend that all is well, as the other option would be too scary.

                  so they will insult, belittle everyone who dares ask questions, who dares not to agree.

                  and fwiw, this is the result of a ‘functioning’ labour government. This did not happen accidentally. This happens because they simply refused to listen to anyone who asked them to consider other options. It is their way or the high way. And Labour will be paying that bill for the next few decades if it still exists as a party in the future.

                • Ad, you still don't say what should be done that is not already underway. !!

                  Steve Chadwick had the final casting vote for…… more housing areas for public housing!! So your rubbish about cover ups is more nasty inferences.

                  What are you going to do? (Apart for vote for Top)

                  • Ad

                    You are right in the middle of an election Patricia.

                    So the first think you should do Patricia is open your eyes to the facts.

                    Then face to face ask those standing for office what their plan is.

                    Not what their party is. What they promise to do.

                    Then vote like that and get others around you to do so.

                    This is what democracy is for.

                  • Sabine

                    Yes, and Steve is the only one who wants these reserves – and low lying flood zones – to be turned into shit boxes for the poor.

                    The rest of us we signed petitions and voted against that.

                    Steve – ex Labour MP, not giving a fuck as to what their constituents want and need. So Labour of them.

                    • Muttonbird

                      It's interesting watching the Rotorua elite get all huffy when the results of decades long profit gouging and exploitation are shoved right back in their face in the form of social issues in emergency housing.

                      It's tough when not out of sight, out of mind.

                    • Once again Sabine, You exaggerate.

                      As we used to follow the soccer teams around these parks, I can assure you "They are NOT all in the flood zone"

                      Where should the homeless go?

                      Not the Motels?

                      Not the newly built "shit boxes" to use your descriptor.

                      So where Sabine? I am sure you have an answer. sarc.

                  • Anne

                    Patricia you and I are 80 years of age and we are women. That means we are comparatively-speaking ignorant and lacking intellectual heft. We don't have the benefit of having spent our working lives in a technically advanced digital world and therefore we don't always understand modern day technical speak. I certainly don't anyway.

                    In short, that makes us inferior and we must learn to bow to our younger brethren whose knowledge and experience is so much greater than ours.

                    I know sarcasm is supposed to be the lowest form of wit but sometimes…..

                • Drowsy M. Kram

                  Labour have been in power for two terms…

                  The 2nd year of the 2nd term is nearly done – that's a nice round up wink

            • Anne 1.2.2.1.3.2

              Ahh, sorry Patricia. I didn't see your reply. Glad to note I was right. 🙂

              Rotorua seems to have been building up to the current situation for a long time. The Covid outbreak has served to exacerbate the problem.

              Ad is firing off on the back of one report with a shock/horror headline.

              I know a little bit from a family member who is a police officer in Rotorua. It sounds to me like a deep seated problem which is going to take many years to turn around. When one reads the linked article, it is clear the local council, together with other affected entities, are doing as much as they can.

              Instead of heaping criticism on them isn't it better to give them positive support?

              • Ad

                Would you like more reports? Is that the problem?

                • Anne

                  Sometimes you remind me of a rocket which whizzes up into the air – all fanfare and noise – then fizzles out and falls to the ground. cheeky

                  • Ad

                    Wilful ignorance like yours is the prime reason Labour is set to lose.

                    • Sabine

                      its not the willful ignorance

                      its their gleeful arrogance coupled wit their ignorance that will have them lose.

                      Labour supporters have become the epitome of let them eat cake.

                    • Anker

                      i think what it is on this site is tribalism. Labour all one's life and therefore pay selective attention to things Labour may have achieved and avoid their catastrophic failures.

                      Anne and Patricia, you are both entitled to your views. I based my judgement on people's arguements not whether I perceive them to be technologically competent or older (god knows I am pretty old myself)

                      Having been a loyal Labour member and supporter all my life, it has been profoundly disillusioning to observe what is happening to our country on their watch. I know they have had Covid to deal with and that was some challenge, but its all the other stuff for me.

                      The Health system. They have set up an expensive bureacracy, but still the nurses pay agreement hasn't been finalized. They cut the $100 shift bonus for nurses recently. IMO they have treated health workers (including mid wives) with contempt. These are the people who will give us the best treatment and save our lives. Little has prioritized a health re structure when the ship is sinking.

                      Housing……f up.

                      Education, kids not attending schools and Jan Tinettis response is an add showing how great school is. Yeah that will work won't it. Not. BTw I saw it in the add break of the Prime news at 5.30pm and thought, yes, good, kids who don't attend school will be tuned in to Eric reading the 5. 330 pm news.

                      Labour have spent up large and things in NZ are worse.

                    • Drowsy M. Kram

                      The 'problem' is the widespread and frankly mad belief that (overall) things should get better. They will not – not under Labour, not under NAct, not under anyone. And how could they – we’ve fouled our own nest (spaceship Earth), and there’s no getting out of it.

                      The certainty of ever-growing living standards we grew up with under Queen Elizabeth is at an end [13 Sept 2022]

                      The end of certainty
                      How long did that “long 20th century” last? DeLong thinks it ended in 2010, making it a long century of 140 years. Since the global financial crisis, we have been unable to return economic growth to anything like the pace of those 140 glorious years.

                      Today, DeLong says material wealth remains criminally” unevenly distributed. And even for those who have enough, it doesn’t seem to make us happy – at least “not in a world where politicians and others prosper mightily from finding new ways to make and keep people unhappy”.

                      DeLong sees “large system-destabilizing waves of political and cultural anger from masses of citizens, all upset in different ways at the failure of the system of the twentieth century to work for them as they thought that it should”.

      • Muttonbird 1.2.3

        Rural towns have had it good for a number of years now on the back of river-trashing dairy intensification and high milk prices.

        It was time to reset, almost everyone wanted that reset, so now rural towns must take their beans rather than rush headlong into environmental disaster.

        • Ad 1.2.3.1

          Agree for those in non-West Coast South Island and in much of central and western North Island.

          The rural squalor is there to be fixed – if one has the will to.

      • Mac1 1.2.4

        Sabine, is the 11% that Rotorua shows a recent trend upwards away from its usual stats? If so, what has happened locally that caused the increase- loss of tourism, timber industry, local closures?

        Where I live, a SI rural town, we are at less than three percent unemployment and are importing labour as RSE workers. Perhaps our demographic which contains the highest % of seniors in the country affects the unemployment figures.

        Is Rotorua’s 11% high age related? With the number of motel housed residents in Rotorua, is the housing industry locally moribund? Are the figures also distorted by social housing needs being met in Rotorua by the motel band-aid solution and people moving there for housing?

        Certainly 11% is a figure that needs addressing.

        • Sabine 1.2.4.1

          That was from the pre-election report that the council commisioned.

          It is by now worse. The plumbers and other trades people started laying off staff now as people can no longer afford to call them in prices are too expensive.

          Seriously people need to understand that Rotorua was just the canary in the coalmine. And the canary died.

          I would not be surprised if that number has not gone up since.

          And thanks to all the shit happening, local tourists are not staying over night, coming in only for a bit of mountain biking and then leaving. So there is no revenue coming in.

          Vote Labour, cause they really really don't give a fuck.

          • Cricklewood 1.2.4.1.1

            It does seem that once the decision was taken to house the most vulnerable in Rotorua's hotels was taken there was nowhere enough thought given to support services or a pathway to getting people back on their feet and back into their previous communities. Instead the govt contracted out the 'support service' no doubt making some considerable amounts of money and it seems against advice undermined the human rights of the 'Tennants' in the emergency housing by removing them from the protections the Tenancy act provides.

            That last part is on this government. How we ended up in this situation sits with all our govts over the last 30 years.

            • Descendant Of Smith 1.2.4.1.1.1

              There is some commonality in the areas that are doing poorly. Generally dependant on low paid tourism and horticultural work and a younger Maori population. It is no co-incidence that Auckland urban areas doing poorly are also with high young Maori and Pacifika populations.

              Some disparity is a consequence of having a young population – people generally earn less while young, are obviously more likely to be out of the work force to have children and so on.

              Some is clearly as a reason of insecure work which regardless of age is more likely to be given by the labour market to Maori and Pacfic Island workers. The level of racism inherent in the New Zealand labour market – especially to its own population is mind-blowing. It clear that many employers would rather import labour than employ local (Maori and Pacific) workers. RSE has its place as it does seem to have cleaned up some (but not all) of the illegal labour orchardists used to use.

              Maori business is growing which will offset some of the racism that exists in the current labour market but I suspect will have its challenges. If lots of existing businesses got well ahead by paying back-handers (tourism and building industry for two examples), by exploiting workers, by suppressing wages and being racist, by pocketing cash sales under the table, etc does this mean that Maori business will only succeed by doing the same thing i.e. it is a fixed game in order to be competitive.

              The thing is that all governments know these demographics and the consequences of them. Talking about reducing taxes when we know for instance we have an older European population who is placing an ever increasing burden on health and welfare seems suicidal. Supporting continuously low paid low productivity industries like tourism also seems equally stupid. Not fully supporting our young population to thrive and to become the future tax payers is also dumb.

              There are people doing good stuff out there but we don't hear enough about them and we don't regulate to ensure others behave as well or don't enforce when we do regulate.

              In many ways all the conspiracy bullshit is just playing into existing business owners hands – they are not affected by it really and can just carry on while everyone is distracted doing the old company town cycle.

              1. Suppress wages and exploit to make excess profit
              2. Own the houses (and motels) that your workers have to rent
              3. Own the finance companies that lend you money to buy stuff that you can't afford because of 1 and 2.

              It is a typical capitalist exploitive arrangement that then leads to:

              1. Blame the poor
              2. Charity not welfare

              Until we decide as a society to stop this insidious slide back into Victorian exploitation we are shot.

          • Tony Veitch 1.2.4.1.2

            Vote Labour, cause they really really don't give a fuck.

            And you seriously believe that Natz and Act do?

            Always, bitterness should have some foundation in reality!

            • woodart 1.2.4.1.2.1

              yep. must be lonely being that bitter ALL or the time. must turn chocolate sour.

    • Bearded Git 1.3

      "From ascendant ACT and National". The Luxon bubble seems to have burst if you look at the poll of polls here:

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_New_Zealand_general_election

      Though that Labour 29.5% in the latest Roy Morgan is a worry.

      • Sabine 1.3.1

        well their low was Cunliffe 26.7 %.

        They can beat that any time, they are that good.

      • Mac1 1.3.2

        The October Roy Morgan certainly does not reflect the trend in the graph in the Wiki article.

        There National is dropping and Labour levelling out. The previous August Roy Morgan had the gap between the blocs as 1.5%.

        Outlier or new trend?

        • Bearded Git 1.3.2.1

          Mac-even in that Roy Morgan poll it is;

          Lab/Gr/MP 45.5

          Nat/Act 48.5

          So with over a year to go there is all to play for, and as you say the trend seems to show the Nats share of the vote falling.

        • Belladonna 1.3.2.2

          The graph shows the poll figures averages (the coloured dots are the actual poll figures, and the line is the average between them)

          The latest RM poll is (as I said last night) an outlier based on the recent polling. RM have form on this – they produced a poll last April with 8% between the parties – which wasn't shown by other polls, or by them subsequently. So it seems as though their results might be a little more variable and/or prone to error.

          We'll need to see what the next polls show, to see if this is a trend. Curia will be polling now (they always do the first week of the month), so shouldn't be too long to wait.

          However, even with these rose-coloured-glasses – this is not a good result for Labour – they are certainly not rising in the polls.

          The really interesting thing (to me, at least) is the continued strength of the 'minor' parties (ACT/Greens). I think that, whether the election goes right or left, the minor parties are going to have a much greater influence on the government than they have had previously.

        • Jimmy 1.3.2.3

          Just choose the poll you like best.

          It really doesn't matter as there is no election until next year.

    • Poission 1.4

      Big day for the New Zealand Labour government as it opens up its books to reveal its true level of debt.

      Between the budget update and the May ( last figures) update net debt increased 5 billion.

      Total borrowing reached 202,617 b and increase on the budget figures of 8.6 billion.Watch for the spin as they try to sell a lower figure,its only for the voters the markets calculate risk on the actual debt,and ability to pay.

  2. Joe90 2

    One of hundreds thought to have disappeared during recent demonstrations.

    Iranian security forces stole the body of a 16-year-old protester, and buried her secretly in a village, sources close to the family told BBC Persian.

    The family had planned to bury Nika Shakarami on Monday, but her body was snatched and buried in a village about 40km (25 miles) away, the sources said.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-63128510

  3. Ad 3

    If you promise your wife you've done enough for your career, then change your mind for the money, well what happens is you've fucked up your marriage and your family permanently.

    'The end': Tom Brady and Gisele Bündchen hire divorce lawyers amid marriage woes – NZ Herald

    All for greed Tom Brady.

  4. Poission 4

    Electricity Generation well within safe bounds,with around 300mw of reserve in each Island.

    Demand reduced somewhat by school holidays,and daylight saving reducing demand somewhat at nights due to less lighting needed.

    Wholesale prices 86-96 mwh (south to north) compared with Australia spot price at 160-179 mwh.

  5. tsmithfield 5

    Putin needs to be given an off-ramp. Here is my suggestion:

    Walk the plank cartoon | cartoon pirate made to walk the plank!

  6. newsense 6

    Why do you think NZers want tax cuts for high income earners, when it’s gone tits up for the UK?

    Look, Brian, it’s totally different here.

    Why’s that?

    Well we think we can get away with it, Brian. Very important that.

    So you think the NZ people are suckers?

    Your words, Brian. We prefer trickle down positive. Much better.

    • yesdevil Just so!! Brilliant summation Newsense.

    • Drowsy M. Kram 6.2

      Brilliant – how I miss the ABC's 'Clarke and Dawe' sketches on the 7:30 Report.
      https://www.abc.net.au/7.30/clarke-and-dawe-on-howards-end/2678252

      BRYAN DAWE: It must have been very difficult?

      JOHN CLARKE: It was terribly difficult, it was very, very difficult indeed. I mean, we were supposed to be running the country.

      BRYAN DAWE: Were you really?

      JOHN CLARKE: It's no wonder we balzed that up. I don't think people realised how bad our policies were.

      BRYAN DAWE: Your own people?

      JOHN CLARKE: Our own people, I mean I don't think a lot of them realise that some of our policies were terrible.

      BRYAN DAWE: And people had stopped listening?

      JOHN CLARKE: I peg your pardon? No, there wasn't an iceberg at all. I looked very hard. There was no iceberg. I couldn't see one.

      Well, I don't think he was ever going to come out, was he?

      BRYAN DAWE: Did he tell you he was going to come out?

      JOHN CLARKE: He told me he wasn't going in.

      BRYAN DAWE: So what did you do at this point?

      JOHN CLARKE: Well, I spoke to other people who didn't want to be the Prime Minister either.

      BRYAN DAWE: There were a few of you were there?

      JOHN CLARKE: Hundreds of us, a hell of a lot of us. So we had a frank discussion, I'd have to say very frank.

      BRYAN DAWE: What did you do?

      JOHN CLARKE: Didn't do anything.

      BRYAN DAWE: But you were very frank about it?

      JOHN CLARKE: We were very, very frank about it, indeed.

      BRYAN DAWE: What were you frank about?

      JOHN CLARKE: Actually, he was slightly franker than I was.

      BRYAN DAWE: In what way?

      JOHN CLARKE: He told me he was going to count to three and if I was still standing there he'd shoot me in the leg.

      Of course we should have signed Kyoto.

      BRYAN DAWE: Why didn't you?

      JOHN CLARKE: Sign Kyoto?

      BRYAN DAWE: Yes.

      JOHN CLARKE: Buggered if I know.

      I still believe the Titanic was the safest form of transport at that time that was available to us. No question.

      • gsays 6.2.1

        It's great.

        Even though the subject matter is different and decades had passed, I still hear Fred Dagg in the delivery.

        • Drowsy M. Kram 6.2.1.1

          Here’s an oldie and goodie – Aussie PM John Howard discusses Climate Change.

    • Mac1 6.3

      Different Brian to Bryan? It does matter……

  7. PsyclingLeft.Always 7

    National Party leader Christopher Luxon is standing firm on cutting taxes for the highest paid despite the turmoil caused by a similar plan in the United Kingdom.

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/476097/tax-rates-a-factor-for-attracting-candidates-for-top-jobs-luxon-says

    Well of course. Never mind the "mistakes" …Kinda puts in mind of WW1 British Generals. (most Generals for that! ) Keep a frontal assault on the machine guns. We have more men than they have bullets. And WE will be ok.

    Maybe ol' Lux-deluxe had General Haig..or similar, as one of his historic heroes?

    • Tricledrown 7.1

      ACT's answer to the rural unemployment problem and Nationals by default is to move the unemployed to the big population center's where there are jobs.But no housing or support networks.Winston had his $1 billion dollar a year provincial growth fund which was dropped by Labour so neither of the major parties have a rural investment policy.

    • woodart 7.2

      general melchett. do the same thing nineteen times and the hun wont suspect anything. too bad about the collateral damage.

      • PsyclingLeft.Always 7.2.1

        Yes indeed. Sadly almost true to life history. ( and was probably the tragicomedy of the Blackadder series: (

        Lux-deLuxe could well be channeling Haig/Melchett

  8. Mat Simpson 8

    29.5 % !!

    They will continue to fade away back to where they were when Little was leader.

    Probably just as well Ms Adern has a well supported international profile so her future employment is assured.

    They don't know her as well as we do.

    Meanwhile the new messiah is trying to justify tax increases for the struggling rich.

    Apparently our economy is doing so much better than the U.K and its time to give more of our money back to those up top. At least he is consistent but like the rest of the Nasty Natz it always thinks it can fix the problem by making the rich a little richer.

    Asked about reducing the top tax rate for high-income earners, he said New Zealand had a higher cost of living and lower wages than other countries and in a competitive world, it needed tax incentives.

    Well at least Aloha Luxon admits we are a low wage economy and he like his predecessors and business leaders want to keep it that way.

  9. ianmac 9

    Just occurred to me that there is method in Luxon's "Lower the Tax" repetitions.

    Every time he gets asked to justify why they will Lower the taxes, he gets to repeat endlessly:

    -wasteful spending

    -borrowing too much

    -too many taxes

    -projects unfinished

    And those things stick in the minds of we the peasants. He must welcome the question every time. Are we playing into his strategy?

  10. Muttonbird 10

    What's that you say, strong economy? Deficit half what was forecast?

    Intelligent people can tell the economy is strong, just drive on the motorway, go to the shopping malls on the weekend. Don't need Treasury to convince, or the opposition to try convince otherwise.

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/476112/treasury-reports-smaller-than-forecast-budget-deficit-of-9-point-7-billion

    I hope the electorate is listening…

    …and…

    Grant Robertson exposes the constant lying coming out of the boardrooms:

    Finance Minister Grant Robertson said that “while there are some ‘mood surveys’ that say one thing about New Zealand’s corporate sector, you can see from here that there was significant profits within our corporate sector evidenced by the corporate tax return to IRD”.

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/130056150/tax-take-up-more-than-10-as-company-profits-and-paye-receipts-jump

    • Muttonbird 10.1

      Robertson took a swipe at the National Party and at businesses unveiling the figures.

      He took time in his speech to "call out" the National Party for criticising Covid spending that it had once supported, and he made a veiled reference to the NZ Herald's Mood of the Boardroom survey, noting that while "there are some 'mood' surveys that say one thing", corporate profits told a different story.

      Robertson finished his speech with another dig at National.

      "Now is not the time to fritter it away on tax cuts for the wealthiest New Zealanders and property speculators," he said, referencing National's tax cut policy.

      https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/corporate-profits-give-grant-robertson-a-93b-surprise-as-government-books-inch-closer-to-surplus/JRLR66PD5Z47BMWU2T4OAT26HQ/

    • Poission 10.2

      Total borrowings increased 203965 22 an increase of 44.1 b.

      Interest increased to 3.349 billion an increase of 1.1 b.

      Total revenue 141.6b

      Total expenses (151 b)

      Gains (non financial) 3 b

      Financial instruments ( 9b) loss.

      Other (.3b) loss.

      = Operating balance (16.9B)

      page 4

    • PsyclingLeft.Always 10.3

      Grant Robertson exposes the constant lying coming out of the boardrooms:

      As ever. Continuous. "Belts must be tightened" (just not theirs).. "The employee wages ! " Who EVER looks at what these fkn Board members..or useless "managers" receive? When are they EVER Performance Reviewed?

      And….you prob remember…sir Key and his "devilbeast" which the slimy creep lobbed to derail Labour and Greens.

      Also…different Bank "spokespeople" who continually (and IMO malignantly) threw all the shit at Labour Greens.

      We must fight hard as, to prevent those Nact creeps from throwing NZ back to…the dogs.

    • Herodotus 10.4

      Then to compensate for every tax payer except those within the lowest threashold could have their INCREASE in tax paid compensated with an increase of the tax theasholds. Pay increases below inflation (which is most of us) and paying more in tax how is that allowing for this prosperity, less in real terms of after tax income ???

      I hope you can see that !!!!

    • roy cartland 10.5

      Instead of 'frittering' it on those richies that don't need it, how about 'spending' it on those poor-ohs that do! Then tax the richies at the same time. Who the hell would feel sorry for them?

  11. Tricledrown 11

    Luxon's tax cuts for the well off who have had massive untaxed wealth gains during the pandemic . the subsequent massive disruption to the just in time supply line ,local food supplies and the Ukrainian war disruption of oil , gas and grain supplies leading to inflation.Which is hitting the middle classes and poor really badly.We shouldn't criticise Luxon let him have his Tricledown fantasy and let him cling to it,as 65% of New Zealand is against Tax cuts for the well off as they have already had the lions share of the $50 billion QE money print.The peasants are paying for it in everyday rapidly rising accomodation and food cost's.Luxon is peddling cruelty to those who are struggling while those who have gained the most are being rewarded again.The well off! What will they do with their tax cut windfall while the rest line up at the food bank .The well off will be buying up under valued properties for more tax free capital gain making it even tougher for the poor to work there way out of poverty. Luxon = Tricledown=more widespread poverty.

  12. ianmac 12

    A Newsroom survey of local election contenders reveals unexpected support to expand co-governance with iwi Māori – and already, some councils are embracing those principles by reversing their Three Waters positions

    With the South Island’s two biggest cities both pulling out of the group spearheading Three Waters opposition to make peace with local iwi, the co-governance horse could be …..

    Damn. The rest is behind the Newsroom paywall. Could hint a change of support which would help the 3 Waters initiative which the Opposition cynically oppose. Anyone have the substance of the article?

  13. Poission 13

    RBNZ increases OCR rate by .5 meeting market expectations,said .75 was on the table.

    Market responds with currency appreciation (against US$) of 1.25%,as bond buyers come back and yields dropping on long bonds.

    Anti inflationary to some extent as liquid fuel costs expected to increase with OPEC cut later tonight,and Whitehouse suggesting limits on distillate fuels.

  14. Mat Simpson 14

    " Liz Truss MUST ditch welfare cuts to prevent a 'benefits bloodbath', says Gordon Brown

    An all out assault planned for the the poor and people planning to retire by the Tories.

    The Queen is to blame for the anger generated over the rich listers tax cut.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/kwasi-kwarteng-blames-queens-death-28154596

  15. Mat Simpson 15

    Mr Faafoi has become a lobbyist.

    " Ministers are already more than well-remunerated for their public service. We should not allow them to continue to corruptly profit from their public roles as some sort of "retirement package".

    http://norightturn.blogspot.com/2022/10/close-this-revolving-door.html

  16. Stephen D 16

    Heaven help us if National get anywhere near being the government.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/oct/05/over-330000-excess-deaths-in-great-britain-linked-to-austerity-finds-study?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    ”More than 330,000 excess deaths in Great Britain in recent years can be attributed to spending cuts to public services and benefits introduced by a UK government pursuing austerity policies, according to an academic study.

    The authors of the study suggest additional deaths between 2012 and 2019 – prior to the Covid pandemic – reflect an increase in people dying prematurely after experiencing reduced income, ill-health, poor nutrition and housing, and social isolation.”

    • PsyclingLeft.Always 16.1

      As woodart said at 7.2… collateral damage. Just those at the lower end of course.

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