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Open mike 28/12/2019

Written By: - Date published: 7:00 am, December 28th, 2019 - 26 comments
Categories: open mike - Tags:

Open mike is your post.

For announcements, general discussion, whatever you choose.

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Step up to the mike …

26 comments on “Open mike 28/12/2019 ”

  1. Adrian Thornton 1

    Happy Christmas…..

    Nathan J. Robinson: Why YOU Should Be A Socialist

  2. Siobhan 2

    The Guardian has corrected an article describing a “plot” to “smuggle” WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange out of London, more than a year after publication

    https://www.rt.com/uk/476767-guardian-correction-assange-story/

    or, for those in fear of RT and Reds under the bed generally..heres the actual "Correction[s] and clarification[s]"

    https://www.theguardian.com/news/2019/dec/22/corrections-and-clarifications

    • McFlock 2.1

      So to be precise, they did try to classify him as an embassy staffer to get diplomatic immunity, the Guardian just shouldn't have called it a "plot".

  3. A 3

    This might be the black swan landing that breaks the global economy.

    From the latest Notes From The Field written by Tim Staermose, Sovereign Man’s Chief Investment Strategist:

    According to the People’s Bank of China (PBOC)’s “2019 China Financial Stability Report,” 586 out of 4,379 Chinese lenders were officially deemed to be “high risk”.

    But that overall figure, bad as it is, may be masking the true extent of the problem.

    According to the same report, over one third of rural lenders are deemed to be “high risk.” One in three banks in rural China. Hmmm.

    And this lack of confidence is beginning to cause bank runs.

    Yingkou Bank in Liaoning Province, and Yichuan Rural Commercial Bank in Henan Province, both faced bank runs in early November.

    -snip-

    If just 5% of the Chinese banking system requires a bailout, for example, that’s the equivalent of nearly 20% of GDP.

    20% of GDP is an impossible bailout for anyone, even China.

    • Wayne 3.2

      The Chinese bailout. Is it really likely that Chinese debt through the banking system is 400% of GDP?

      Because that is the implication of 5% of the Chinese banking system requiring 20% of GDP for a bailout.

      Though the GFC bailouts in the US and Europe must have got up to 20% of GDP.

      • Wayne 3.2.1

        On checking on the net, Chinese public, household and corporate debt is 300% of GDP (Reuters 2019). That is similar to NZ total levels of debt. The NZ debt has rapidly increased in the last decade and is largely household and farms, due to high levels of mortgages. The US level is closer to 400%, being 100% public, 200% household and 100% business.

        So is the Chinese level something to worry about? Perhaps not, based on western levels of debt.

        Many OECD countries are at the 300% to 400% levels, with some (Greece, Italy) having 200% public sector debt alone. Clearly, based on the experience of those two countries, 200% public debt cripples growth.

        • pat 3.2.1.1

          and based on western levels perhaps so…there's two sides to a balance sheet

          https://chinapower.csis.org/china-face-looming-debt-crisis/

          who's our largest trading partner…and also the largest trading partner of our second largest trading partner?

          When growth stops the growth model stops working

          • Drowsy M. Kram 3.2.1.1.1

            Increasing global population, coupled with migration, will prop up the stuttering growth model for a decade or two yet. More people are a 'raw fuel' for economic growth; that fuel will begin to 'dry up' when essential resources become limiting.

            As you noted (in Incognito’s post @7.1.1.1), "How that decline plays out is the unknown". Make hay…

            "From Sheep to Trees Three decades ago, while still in their 40s, Marlene and Patrick Anderson decided to drop out of the rat race. Since then, they have been planting trees and helping New Zealand fight climate change."
            https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2019/12/pdf/fd1219.pdf [p45]

        • Nic the NZer 3.2.1.2

          Wayne, the obvious conclusion about Greece and Italy is that public sector austerity programs cripple growth. Public debt levels don't cripple growth and the ideology driven conclusions of Rogoff and Reinhardt didn't just contain elementary errors but also clear instances of adjusting the data to draw a preconceived conclusion and failure to understand causality.

          In Greece case your citing debt to GDP ratios without mention of a 20% fall in the denominator.

          • Wayne 3.2.1.2.1

            There must be a level where a nation can have too much public debt, where the interest bill takes up too much of the tax receipts.

            Even at the current very low interest rates, the Greek and Italian public sector debt will be costing around 4% of GDP, which would be at least 15% of total tax receipts. And that is assuming that the Greeks and Italians actually pay 30% of GDP in tax. That is highly unlikely.

            So I am certain that public debt at 200% of GDP is way too much. It stunts growth. Lenders are reluctant to extend new loans. There is real pressure for a haircut, but how often does the European Central Bank do this?

            It is the same problem Argentina faces. An inability to manage public finances, with continual expectations of IMF bailouts.

            Much better to have the New Zealand approach. When we had the twin shocks of the GFC and the Christchurch earthquake, the government could borrow the equivalent of 15% of GDP to get through, which pushed debt up to 20% of GDP. Now there is general consensus that because of low interest rates, it will be OK to go to 25% of GDP for a major public works program. None of this would be possible if New Zealand public debt was say 100% of GDP, not when private debt is over 200% of GDP.

        • KJT 3.2.1.3

          Japan, which has equal public debt?

          • Wayne 3.2.1.3.1

            Japan also has low growth. The level of public debt is one of the reasons, though not the only one.

            At least Japan can borrow in its own very strong currency, so has minimal, even negative interest rates. Unlike Argentina where any public borrowing in the local currency simply drives inflation.

            • Stuart Munro 3.2.1.3.1.1

              Japan also has low growth.

              So do we, thanks to the inane policies of your colleagues. Real estate "growth" is just miscounted inflation. So is immigrant capital.

  4. pat 4

    US GDP approx 20 trillion….QE in excess of 2.5 trillion

    EU GDP approx 18 trillion…QE 2.5 trillion

    UK GDP approx 2.6 trillion…QE slightly under 500 billion

    Chinese GDP approx 14 trillion

  5. David Mac 5

    Got a call from a Kiwi pal in Perth. A dear friend of his had up and died. He went searching for a eulogy. Google led him to Nick Cave's website. Nick and his partner Susie had lost their son Arthur at an early age and a fan asked a question that lit Nick's insightful creative soul.

    https://www.theredhandfiles.com/communication-dream-feeling/

  6. Eco maori 6

    It's is great to see that the realities of Global warming human cause climate change cannot be ignored by the ruling people of the world no matter how far they try and shove their heads into Te Whenua. But remember this they will not give up their deceitful lies. They have story's that have headlines that fool you into thinking they are pro global warming mitigation. But in these story's they twist the facts against green energy. They are very sly people who have been planting lies in humanity’s head for hundreds of years.

    Climate change denial was defeated in 2019. But what comes next won't be easier

    Carlo Invernizzi-Accetti

    Defeating the climate crisis is just the beginning of the struggle – and tough political choices will have to be made.

    Will 2019 be remembered as the year in which climate change denial was defeated? The global climate strike, Greta Thunberg’s meteoric rise to international prominence, as well as several high-profile international conferences and reports – all contributed in putting climate skeptics on the back foot.

    Even Donald Trump, who previously claimed that the climate crisis was a “hoax” invented by China to hold back American industry, has recently begun to brag about all his administration has done to address it. Following suit, the rest of his party is scrambling to develop a coherent environmental platform, more in line with their electoral base’s shifting views.

    But the next steps in the global fight against the climate crisis remain far from clear. In the speech she delivered to US Congress in September, Thunberg maintained: “No matter how political the background to this crisis may be, we must not allow it to become a partisan political question. The climate and ecological crisis is beyond party politics. And our main enemy right now is not our political opponents. Our main enemy is physics.”

    While Thunberg’s intention was evidently to preserve the environmental movement’s unity and common resolve, this may paradoxically soon start to look like a new form of climate denial. As the issue rises to the top of everyone’s agenda, several difficult questions which were previously kept in the background – or indeed actively suppressed – by the environmental movement are becoming impossible to ignore.

    Ka kite Ano link below.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/29/the-climate-movement-is-about-to-get-more-political-and-thats-a-good-thing

  7. Eco maori 7

    Kia Ora Newshub.

    Queens Town packed out.

    There are haters in all countries.

    It has been a decade of extreme weather events up the East Coast had a hot record 10 years of above average temperature I read that in a study about this topic.????.

    Theres only 2 legged snakes in Aotearoa.

    Ka kite Ano.

  8. Eco maori 8

    Kia Ora Te Ao Maori News.

    There looks like heaps of riders at the South Dakota America native riding trekking kia kaha.

    That's looking like a good niche music market for Pacific tangata Heavy metal.

    Ka kite Ano

  9. Eco maori 9

    Kia Ora Newshub.

    That's is cool Sir Robert Ka pai.

    John Burnett made some great Kiwi TV shows one franchise is still running around the world.

    The decade is ending with a excellent note we have a tangata government in power in Aotearoa and Global Warming Climate Change truths are now many tangata reality.

    Happy New year to all.

    Ka kite Ano.

  10. Eco maori 10

    Kia Ora Te Ao Maori News.

    The Salvation Army does great mahi.

    Awsome to see tangata whenua o Aotearoa given honours.

    Ka pai to your secess guys Yes Haka is now world famous.

    I would go to Te reo Kura but I will have to many kehua around me so I will teach myself Te reo I pick Ngāti Porou Te reo up easy as because I was raised in it.

    Ka kite Ano

  11. Eco maori 11

    Kia Ora Newshub.

    Queens Town covered in smoke from the Australian Bush fires the beautiful views of the moanga clouded out by smoke.

    The Rhythm and vines concert packs out Turangi Nui A Kiwa.

    What makes me laugh is all this attention to meat and dairy. But nothing about the impact that vineyards and wine making has on our environment.???????.

    It will be sad if the Monarch Butterfly's are lost Yes chemicals and humans are there demise.

    Ka kite Ano.

  12. Eco maori 12

    Kia Ora Te Ao Maori News.

    That's awesome sports Te tangata Ngapuhi up North.

    You have to respect Tangaroa Mana and wear life jackets.

    Its shocking the numbers of native Wahine that go missing in America and Canada with known trace.They must protect our Native Wahine Mana wairua.

    I encourage my Tamariki to learn Te reo and our history.
    Ka pai for your tohu Papa Gorge

    Ka kite Ano

  13. Eco maori 13

    Kia Ora Newshub

    Yes Te Ra is orange today from the smoke from the Bush fires in Australia.

    Catfish are quite a bad pest now they're in Aotearoa

    Ka kite Ano

  14. Eco maori 14

    Kia Ora Te Ao Maori News.

    Condolences to Parekura whanau for their loss.

    Our Glaciers are turning pango.

    Ka pai to the Australian First Nations Tribal Warriors That's the way be proud of your great Culture.

    Ka kite Ano.

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