- Date published:
6:00 am, May 29th, 2022 - 51 comments
Categories: open mike - Tags:
Open mike is your post.
For announcements, general discussion, whatever you choose.
The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy).
Step up to the mike …
Oh its apparently the EPA thats the problem ! LOL. Surely the Environment PROTECTION is what they are about ?
And knowing THE SMELTER…and Rio Tinto with good reason . They are Dirty Companies…with dirty process…World Wide. Absolutely needs monitored !
I,ve always felt that Tiwai,s waste should be exported back to it,s country of origin. So it,s nice to see it actually being attempted
Ok. "Being attempted". Assuming that. Have you ever followed its dubious Environmental record ? IN NZ ! ..let alone World wide. They had a go at "exporting' to Mataura…just up the road. Where it ..sat. While the smelter blew smoke and flashed mirrors.
I would…never trust them.
Yep, follow closely and fully agree
Some sobering thoughts for perusal on a Sunday morning – re climate change.
The Limits to Growth (LTG) is a 1972 report on the exponential economic and population growth with a finite supply of resources, studied by computer simulation. The study used the World3 computer model to simulate the consequence of interactions between the earth and human systems
50 years ago…
The core assumption that population would continue to grow exponentially has not worked out in reality. Moreover the consumption profile of an ageing population demographic changes as well.
It is entirely possible that a long slow population decline in the developed world will have entirely the opposite impact imagined. A search on this topic shows a few people thinking about this, but it is such uncharted territory there is not a lot of agreement on what all this might mean yet.
One example is here:
"The core assumption that population would continue to grow exponentially has not worked out in reality. "
Evidently you havnt read anything about the model or the projections to make that inaccurate statement.
I provided a solid no nonsense link to support my assertion – it is over to you to tell me why it is wrong.
You did no such thing…you made a patently false statement and then linked to an alternative population projection that you may be surprised to learn supports LtoG.
Heres the link to researched judgement on the accuracy of world 3 to date but I fully expect you to not read it as it is contrary to your world view
If you think the projection of population in the reference I gave looks like an exponential growth rate – then you need to explain your mathematical reasoning in a bit more detail.
it is indeed exponential…until its not…as are the L to G projections.
And in most of the developed world – for example in Europe – it has long since stopped being exponential. Why do you think this is?
I think its because you are struggling…read the analysis.
Yes you are being…read the analysis and you will discover the World 3 model is global and state variation has no overall impact to interplay ….you may also discover that population is but one variable in the model as it is a systems dynamic model.
So in summary there is no longer an ' exponential economic and population growth ' as you claimed in your first comment. And in particular population growth rate is quite the opposite::
The IPCC sres models follow shared socio economic pathways for carbon mitigation and objectives.
To meet the lesser of all evils population growth needs to stop now,so the population can sustain at around 8b at 2050,before falling to 6b under the Green pathway.
The global numbers hide the nuances. For a start much of the developed world that is currently the largest consumer of resources per capita – is already at peak population. Although big contradictions exist – compare for example the USA and Europe projections.
As I have often argued here the real problem is not the existing 1b people in the developed world who are the problem – it is the 7b plus people in the developing world who must leapfrog the technology we used to attain prosperity.
How does the world pay for it?
If something is necessary then cost becomes a lessor concern.
I note that the author has chosen to have at least one child – so perhaps she isn't quite as determinedly pessimistic over the future of human existence as she makes out.
The doom-and-gloom keyboard warriors are not likely to persuade anyone that change is necessary. After all, if it's too late to make a difference, what's the point of living your remaining years without luxuries?
'The end is nigh' attitude, historically, always results in a significant splurge of resources – after all, you can't take it with you.
Got it in one – too few are prepared to do without luxuries (oh the sacrifice!), or anything else – rather they have been trained to always want, and expect, more.
Some who want more actually do need more – others not so much, although they would resist that contention with every (very moral) fibre of their being.
Hmm. I was pointing out that people see no reason to do without luxuries if their sacrifice makes no difference. If we're all doomed in any case, then what's the point.
Many people, if given hope and a pathway forwards, are indeed prepared to sacrifice luxuries (and sometimes things that they previously though necessities)
This is why I think this kind of 'it's all hopeless' article is absolutely as dangerously irresponsible as the 'nothing to see her, move on' ones.
I don't believe feeling hopeless about climate change, and giving voice to same, is irresponsible. Whereas, imho, the 'nothing to see her [sic], move on' types are absolutely irresponsible – criminal even – let's agree to disagree.
I doubt the scale of sacrifices needed will achieved voluntarily – time will tell.
Yousafzai, Nakate, Thunberg et al. are reason to hope. My generation will largely 'go gentle', because (Still) "no hurry eh?"
Feeling, No. No one can (or should) tell you how or what to feel.
Using your platform to spread your despair, absolutely irresponsible.
Assuming anyone believes you (and doesn't just think you're cynically doing this for clickbait and to increase your profile), then you're encouraging people to give up taking or supporting any kind of climate-change action.
As above, both are irresponsible actions at different ends of the political/ecological spectrum.
Yep, and imho it’s also ok to say how one feels about CC. I don't feel it's realistic to expect people will give up luxuries and more on a scale that will make a significant difference, but hope I'm wrong and will support and make small contributions to environmental and GenLess-style causes regardless.
We disagree. Really not fussed about platforms and profiles.
Does anyone thing it plausible that Xi Jinping's zero covid strategy for omicron is not what it seems?
I am speculating there is a calculation, as to damaging the global economy during sanctions on Russia and the blockade of Ukraine by Russia (especially if Russia has a nova russia farmland grab plan).
Going for the fisheries of the Pacific at the same time … as food shortages emerge.
Never – Xi Xinping and his bbf Poots have nothing but the best interests of all humanity at heart. slash sarc
Part of the problem is that after spending much of the past two years loudly telling the rest of the world how superior the Chinese approach to COVID was – it is not possible for the CCP to allow otherwise.
Whether their motivation goes further than this is hard to tell for the moment. I think it possible that they have seen how intensely sanctions have been imposed on Russia and they are in some sense pre-positioning the Chinese economy for the same.
Sure giving up zero covid might appear to be a climb down – but given the hospital system can survive its spread, continuing with it is like running lockdown during flu season.
DOMESTIC – an assessment of long COVID consequences?
INTERNATIONAL – weaken the west with an impact similar to sanctions?
I agree that is a possible motivation no-one can rule out. But given that the Chinese economy is even more dependent on trade than even Russia – it imports at 85% of its energy and a large fraction of its food inputs – such a strategy if carried to its logical outcome is completely suicidal.
It makes as much rational sense as trying to eliminate Omicron with lockdowns. So yes it does beg the question you have asked.
Talking about the problem with Keyboard Warriors.
Maybe they just need to get out in the real world now and then.
Maybe Lynn could encourage Mike to come along, at least for the public meeting at the Domain.
I wouldn't mind reading their different take from each other's point of view.
Now that would be interesting journalism.
(moved here to avoid diverting the thread)
Unfortunately I was not able to attend the anti-war march on Sunday and so are not able to give any feedback on how it went or what was said by the speakers. Covid has returned to our household and we are having to isolate at home for 7 days. All three adults in the house have tested positive and are all laid up.. The 12 year old is still testing negative. Maybe because he spends all day in his room playing video games, and doesn't come out much. We have had to keep him away from school and that is how he copes.
Captain Christopher Luxon is going to ride the cost of living tsunami into power.
“I’m going to ride the cost of living tsunami into power” says Christopher. “I’m going to use this wave to lift our boats” he says. This was Christopher’s second maritime analogy and the yacht savvy crowd were lapping it up.
“Of course we’re going to need to scrape off the bottom feeders” he continues, “we wouldn’t want them to spread didymo” and he bares his pearly whites as camera flashes bounce off his skull. The crowd titters and quaffs at their flutes. Some turn their hearing aids up, this is good stuff.
“The current Government are wasting money on climate change but when I was King of Air New Zealand we just flew the planes around the storms, well duh!” He twirls his finger and the crowd goes bonkers. One tinkles a spoon on a glass, another chokes on a canapé. “That money is ours”.
“The current Government doesn’t care about real New Zealanders like us. The cost of living is brutal. Hands up who’s had to pay their staff more?” Hands pop up all over the room. “And who’s had to adjust their plans for this Covid nonsense”. Heads are nodding. “I see you”. He pauses for dramatic effect, and his upper lip trembles. “I wanted to buy some sweet Hawaiian digs next to John’s this year, but I’d have to sell one of my other houses as I’m a bit short.” He bows his head gravely, then looks up into the camera. “Sarah over there lost her thirteenth cafe, and poor Barry (he chokes), Barry can’t even get the latest Maserati – he has to drive last years model.” The crowd are aghast. They grimace at the inhumanity of it all.
“This outrage cannot stand” he shouts to the crowd, many of whom also cannot stand. “It will not stand, but will you? Stand with me against these working class bastards diluting our profits and power”.
Half the crowd is coming to its feet. The other half are being assisted to theirs. A waiter, with no sense of timing, walks into the centre of several tables. Glasses are thrown, a carafe shatters on his head. The mob surround him, he is stabbed and dragged down to the floor. “Give me it back!” some septuagenarian demands, ripping at the waiters pockets for his wallet.
I see the ads for Established Titles and I wonder about the fun in buying them as a present for someone…
Don't applaud, just rattle your jewelry. Internal National Party bylaw..
Some music for all. Steeleye Span singing something about May in a cheery sort of way, possibly isn't but is toe tapping stuff. Padstow it's called.
"Protests have broken out in China after several regional banks prevented customers from making withdrawals in late April, stoking fears of a greater credit crisis without an intervention from financial authorities.
At least three institutions based in Henan Province — Yu Zhou Xin Min Sheng Village Bank, Shangcai Huimin County Bank and Zhecheng Huanghuai Community Bank — have frozen a total of 10 billion yuan ($1.49 billion) in deposits, according to Chinese reports. One million customers are believed to be affected."
Trouble at mill
Chinese banks have around 16 trillion in deposits (second only to the US with 18t) so more of a run on the bank fueled crisis type.
The problem has been with the deliberate crashing of the property market (the worlds largest market) returning it to a neutral position from over priced (like Auckland which is still 2x median house to wage values over priced) and debt borrowing from property to fund spec investments.
Yes their property woes are ongoing though im not sure how deliberate it is, however 3 small rural banks are likely indicative of a larger hidden problem in that borrowing has fallen off a cliff….no new money.
And they are our biggest customer.
Official figures for China are all over the place and generally meaningless. However the Bank of Finland – who one might imagine to be a sober observer – comes to the conclusion that their Debt to GDP ratio is something north of 300%.
Never in the history of currency has this level of debt had a happy ending.
They have been also hording commodity assets for 2 years,and now have very cheap energy at a discount from their neighbour,the main problem will be with leveraged overseas investments,if global markets contract ( in real terms) remembering that a lot of consumer demand was a covid response.
and now have very cheap energy at a discount from their neighbour
The Trans Siberian pipelines have a limited capacity that cannot be expanded at all quickly. And relying on oil shipped out of the Black Sea seems a foolhardy prospect at the moment.
It might be cheap – but not much use if you cannot get hold of it.
I just had four goes at trying to delete a surplus full-stop in the wrong place in the above comment.
Until I worked out it was a spot of crud on my screen
Screen-crud – it'll be our undoing!
(imagining the poor sap, sitting in front of the "Unleash Nuclear Hell" screen, finger poised…
Oil Russian far east,and LNG from the Northern route.
Still constrained by infrastructure – none of which can be magicked up in months.
From memory the existing pipeline into China took something like a decade to build.
But, but…. no one saw.. it… Coming!