Radio NZ hack claims National’s dirty politics scandal merely a “beltway” issue.
Are Michelle Boag and Matthew Hooton writing their scripts now?
Radio NZ National Checkpoint, Wednesday 29 July 2015
Conservative Party founder and (until recently) leader Colin Craig has announced he is suing extreme right wing National Party blogger Cameron “Whaleoil” Slater for the campaign of lies and intimidation the fat man has been running against him for months. This cynical assault on our democracy was exhaustively laid out last year by Nicky Hager in his book Dirty Politics.
However, according to Radio NZ National’s Liz Banas, whether or not this brutal National Party operative is lying is nothing more than a “hard core beltway” issue. She tried unsuccessfully to upset Craig by firing that statement at him several times tonight….
COLIN CRAIG: …. Holding these guys to account is the right thing.
LIZ BANAS: But you’ve put things in this brochure that the public don’t even know about and probably much less care about.
COLIN CRAIG: Well I think it DOES matter to the New Zealand public that we have politics that is free from this sort of agenda that the Dirty Politics brigade run.
LIZ BANAS: Well I think you’ll see from the election result that people didn’t really take too much notice of the Dirty Politics when it came to voting.
COLIN CRAIG: I think it does matter the sort of country that we have, and the way that we run it. I think it does matter what the agenda of people is. It is our law in this land that you are not allowed to go out and defame public persons, for very good reasons. And I think that this is NOT a core value for New Zealanders, this sort of attack. We are honest people, we like a fair game and we like people to play within the rules. Good debate is good, a bit of argy-bargy is good, but having biased referees, or one team cheating, taking out an opposing player with a foul, that’s not the way we are.
LIZ BANAS: But it’s seriously beltway. I mean, a lot of these allegations people wouldn’t have any idea about. It’s hard core beltway.This is just for the people who are really involved in politics will be talking about this. As far as they’re concerned, you lost the election, you’ve admitted to inappropriate behavior with Miss McGregor, your party has imploded, and a lot of people would regard you as finished, politically.
COLIN CRAIG: Well, I think Liz you’ve said an awful lot there, but the reality is that this is a public issue. People DO know all about this, they DO want to know the truth of it, going to the court and having the court rule on whether these guys are telling the truth or whether I’m telling the truth DOES matter. That’s what political credibility is about, who’s telling the truth? Am I honest, or are they honest? We can’t both be right, the public do need to know.
LIZ BANAS: Do you worry that people see you as a laughing stock?
COLIN CRAIG: Oh I don’t worry about that at all. I stand for issues, I am who I am, and I’m very comfortable that this is the right approach to take with these guys who have been campaigning against me for week after week after week. I mean, it’s unheard of. This is unprecedented, there isn’t this sort of attack that’s gone on before. It’s serious stuff, and the court will rule whether or not I’ve been telling the truth. That matters to people. ….
………
POINT TO PONDER: It’s not as if there was a more competent and serious journalist on hand to make up for her shoddiness. Thanks to the recent purges at Radio NZ National, her partner was… Jim Mora.
RNZ is heads and shoulders above any of the other News outlets. I do believe Jim Mora is on borrowed time holding down the late afternoon slot.
The Monday morning political show with Hooton & Williams I personally find quite insightful and is a good summary on current political issues. Plunket’s Friday show with National cyborg Boag and Williams is equally as good, recently Sean gave the cyborg a real decent crack over the non Govt foreigner’s register, it was classic.
I’m not sure whether I entirely agree with this. I certainly do think that there is a disparity between the easy ride that government MPs (especially Mr. Key) get in the face of obviously and woefully inadequate statements in interviews on the one hand, and the belligerent but content-lite attack interviews on successive labour and green leaders. However, I also think that it is an interviewer’s job to challenge the motives and framing of any and all politicians that they interview, and try as I might, I can’t see any more in the above than that. Her framing could be more informed/informative, but I think the basic line of questioning is appropriate and gives him ample scope to respond.
Craig is being challenged to explain why his legal and PR campaign is a public interest issue, rather than a personal vendetta that serves nothing but his own satisfaction. Assuming that his info and claims are true, then it is in the public interest, but it’s still up to him to state his case and show the public why it’s important. Interviews like that facilitate that best, because the members public can hear many competing aspects of the argument and make up their own minds. I don’t wish people would stop interviewing Craig like that, I wish they would do more in that vein to Mr. Key.
@Morrisey
I heard Liz Banas name mentioned the other morning when I expected to hear Susie’s and I looked up but could find no Liz Banash in presenters.
Are you saying that Jim Mora is on early morning instead of Guyon. Do you know about changes? Holiday breaks? I looked up google for –
radionz management advice on personnel changes
and found nothing except headings about news not about the entity.
“No no no…. I understand that…. all right….okay…”
British state television frontwoman comes horribly unstuck on HARDtalk
Poor old Mishal Husain had her lines carefully written out—including such gems as calling a Financial Times hatchet job a “well considered piece”—but she simply lacked the intellect to counter Stathis Kouvelakis. What followed was one of the most complete humiliations of a BBC hack since Tim Sebastian’s 1993 trauma at the hands of Lee Kuan Yew.
It’s great the way you expose the media, Morrissey.
Some people seem unaware of how dumbed down the media has become.
For example, today, while Grosser and his Randite minions are trading away NZ’ s sovereignty in Hawaii, our miserable media has barely a word to say in this act of treason.
As biased as the media are, the Labour “opposition” is also failing us. Can you imagine the non-stop, hour by hour furore that would have ensued if it were a LABOUR government in Hawaii negotiating away our right to Pharmac?
Instead, the Labour Party leader talks about how he doesn’t like our national anthem.
By the way, the nasty, dim BBC hackette dying so horribly in that HARDtalk interview was Zeina Badawi, not Mishal Husain.
Darn it, Morrissey. Andrew Little has spoken out against TPPA several times lately.
The piece about the national anthem was picked out by the MSM of a speech he was giving in Parliament about the flag debate and used to trivialise whatever he was saying then. You of all people should know how easily the MSM trivialise whatever Labour says to keep attention away from the important stuff they say!
Thanks for that Jenny. We shouldn’t chop Labour down to miniscule over MSM misrepresentation. It’s good to be put right otherwise we don’t hear the truth only the manufactured litany of lies from the ba….s.
I noticed Toby Manhire and Sean Plunket yesterday getting affronted on Key’s behalf because Groser got testy with Key. The Notionals seem to have made ‘friends’ with many jonolists who are willing to write about Gullible’s Travels!
Peons of praise?
edited
Fair comment, Jenny. I have no doubt that Gower and his friends have utterly distorted what he said—and I was foolish enough to amplify it here. I am, however, not convinced that Labour has a coherent policy on this vital issue. If National was in Opposition, and it was a Labour government pushing this profoundly anti-democratic measure, all the media would be saturated with the message that Labour was selling out our public health system.
I’m also still trying to come to terms with the way Little and his colleagues meekly supported the Government’s snooping legislation a few months ago.
By the way, may I say what a privilege it is to be handed a whupping from someone with such a distinguished Labour name.
@Morrissey
That is not Mishal Husain doing the interview. She is (from memory) Cambridge educated and very smart. Works on Radio 4 Today programme now.
WikiLeaks on Twitter: “ANNOUNCE: A new secret #TPP leak … https://twitter.com/wikileaks/status/626457709471211521
41 secs ago – WikiLeaksVerified account … ANNOUNCE: A new secret #TPP leak within the hour. …. @wikileaks @Ladydus Greatest robbery/corruption of all times by …
WikiLeaks on Twitter: “ANNOUNCE: A new secret #TPP leak … https://twitter.com/wikileaks/status/626457709471211521
41 secs ago – WikiLeaksVerified account … ANNOUNCE: A new secret #TPP leak within the hour. …. @wikileaks @Ladydus Greatest robbery/corruption of all times by …
from Australia
“TPP negotiations threaten to forcibly commercialise state-owned bodies
PHILIP DORLING
The ABC, SBS and Australia Post could lose special regulatory treatment under trade measures being pushed for by the US.
A plan to treat vulnerable newborns as “lab rats” by sitting back for two years to see if they were abused has been blocked by the Government.
The Ministry of Social Development proposed to include 60,000 children born this year in an “observational study” to test the accuracy of its new predictive risk modelling tool.
It attempts to predict abuse, welfare dependency and the likelihood of a child’s downward spiral into crime on the path to adulthood so it can better target spending.
The Government gave the go-ahead to develop the model in 2012, as part of the Children’s Action Plan. It had now begun testing it.
But documents show officials had sought ethical approval for one study which involved risk-rating a group of newborns and not intervening in high-risk cases, to check whether their predictions came true.
A furious Social Development Minister Anne Tolley said she could not fathom what her officials were thinking.
These kinds of controlled experiments raise ethical issues all the time. For instance trials of new experimental drugs – there is always a control group who don’t get the potentially life-saving treatment.
Or you could argue that now this study has been squashed – that NO children will potentially benefit from it now. Sort of like tossing all the lab rats in the bin.
All we have is a possible model of which children may or may not be at risk. This is the direct equivalent of a medical diagnostic tool – but until it is tested we have no evidence of whether it is going to work well enough or not.
If the researchers simply developed an untested social diagnostic tool to predict which children were at risk – and then applied it as an en-mass intervention on the whole population what do you imagine might happen?
For a start – how would you deal with all the false positive cases?
“If the researchers simply developed an untested social diagnostic tool to predict which children were at risk – and then applied it as an en-mass intervention on the whole population what do you imagine might happen?”
Isn’t this precisely the reason that new interventions usually are trialed on small control groups under informed consent before introducing them to the general public or larger group concerned?
But almost all interventions have negative as well as positive effects, so applying them to people who don’t need them leaves the negative for no actual positive – i.e. they can actually do harm.
I’m in favour of seeing if it works before leaping to conclusions about every kid in the country.
Which is pretty much what was planned. The target study group was going to be one cohort of 60,000 children born in one year, and thereby large enough to give a statistically confident result.
And therefore we can never do any studies, of any kind, with children because we cannot ever get ‘informed consent’ from them? That’s another kind of nonsense.
This was only ever a passive ‘observational study’. Whether it proceeded or not – the lives of the participants would be exactly the same. So precisely what are you asking ‘informed consent’ for?
Besides there is the practical question of the study needing to be of a significant minimum size in order to obtain a results with acceptable statistical confidence.
They didn’t want to intervene in cases identified as “high risk” by the untested predictive model.
That doesn’t preclude normal intervention when/if current systems come to the same conclusion – indeed, that would be one of the measurements involved in the assessment of the accuracy of the new model.
Unless you can show that these researchers had access to an equivalent ‘crash test dummy’ model that would give equivalent results in this space – I don’t think that comparison works vto.
These ‘researchers’ were prepared to let people seriously damage their lives in order to observe that damage…. that is fucked in the head and smells of the third re1ch…
I can understand if the effect on natural people is minor and negligible, and repairs itself like a scratch with a band-aid, but not this shit. Its over the top by a country mile.
+1. Not least because there are any number of measures that can be implemented to improve people’s lives without having to inflict that sort of harm upon anybody.
RL the study design could have been done differently to address the ethical concerns raised. For instance, a higher level of monitoring of the “high risk” group, with protocols for intervention in any instances where children were detected to be actually mistreated (whatever group they were from).
Remember that one of the issues with the “Unfortunate Experiment” were healthcare professionals who were aware that certain research subjects were at higher risk of developing cancer – but then doing nothing about it.
Again the ‘Unfortunate Experiment’ example is not so clear cut as you would like to think.
The original experiment design made reasonable sense in the light of the knowledge of the day. There were many aspects of this cancer not at all well understood at the time.
Like much medical research it made an easy target with the benefit of hindsight – and definitely Green should have been more pro-active about managing the arising cases of cervical cancer that did arise. But the issues were nowhere near as black and white as the popular outrage of the day.
Not according to Cartwright. Your interpretation is itself revisionist and made with the benefit of many years hindsight. Greens “experiment” was very definitely ethically questionable at the very least and bears remarkable similarities to MSD’s proposed study. Some people are slow learners.
And everyone also ignored the fact that Herb Green designed his study in the mid-60’s – and it was considered acceptable in the light of the thinking of the day. It’s completely and utterly wrong to condemn a man for actions taken in ignorance of knowledge yet to be discovered.
There was by the 1980s an extensive international literature questioning whether early intervention was necessary or was over-treatment, causing more harm than good.
Medicine faces a especial challenge in that the public find it very difficult to separate out the role of a researchers who have a role of studying illness – and that of clinicians whose role is to treat it. And back in the 60’s that distinction was virtually non-existent; it was absolutely common-place for clinicians like Green to also be researchers.
But that is not the case with this proposed social study at all.
It’s been a while since I read the book, but from what I remember this is not true.
It was against current thinking at the time. The ethical and management teams of National Women’s were not robust enough to challenge Green, and efforts by McIndoe to ensure care was given, and standards were upheld were constantly overridden.
As a female child born in that hospital at the time, I may have been one of those female newborns that were given a smear test – without knowledge of my mother – and without any particular research benefit. The practice continued for two years after Green decided the results coming from newborns were not supporting his theory.
The continual recall of women identified for “non-treatment” and observation was appalling. And they would have been under the mistaken idea that they were receiving timely and appropriate treatment.
Most of the problems arose because by force of circumstance Green was forced into the role of both researcher and clinician. These days the roles are usually quite separate which makes these kinds of ethical issues much easier to manage.
Actually Green’s thinking turned out to be correct – that early hysterectomies and large cone biopsies which often prevented women from conceiving again were usually unnecessary; a conclusion that current practise endorses.
Worth a read. I accept that by current modern standards there are things he should have done better, but ultimately there is a lot more to the story than the narrow conclusions Cartwright came to. Incidentally I was delivered by Herb Green. I was a very late term baby and he saved my life. So maybe I’m biased.
And as it happened my family knew MacIndoe as well. They were all good people just doing the best they could with the understandings they possessed at the time.
Tolley also appeared to signal a major backdown on a proposed population-wide application of the model, saying it was “unlikely” to be used on children that had not already been notified to Child Youth and Family (CYF).
Well, it seems that the entire predictive modelling has now been canned which, of course, means that those children who are at high risk of being abused will now most likely be abused and CYF won’t actually know about them.
What do you think a future Tory government might do with a tool that is proven to demonstrate that certain parents or classes of parents are more likely to be child abusers? Or if such a database listing those parents and families was leaked?
well the tool is inevitably going to end up scientifically justifying the singling out of specific types of households and classes of people who have done no wrong (yet).
Under a responsible and enlightened regime, that might be tolerable, even useful.
I think this comment neatly highlights an important distinction between a predictive tool based on correlational datasets and a causal understanding (or scientific theory) of a phenomenon – i.e., exploration of a ‘real’ scientific theory as opposed to statistical modelling based upon empirical regularity.
Correlational ‘predictions’ are not based on causal understanding (i.e., causal scientific theories) but on statistical regularities (which are often developed into so-called ‘models’).
Importantly, in construction of such tools the statistics to which the tool’s builders will inevitably turn are the ones already being collected (and which were typically developed to serve other purposes).
And that’s where the danger of using a statistical predictive tool exists, in policy terms.
If the causal processes involved in generating abuse are not being used to guide policy then interventions are triggered based on statistical probabilities embedded in the ‘tool’.
Here’s a revealing example. Being a young Maori male (as opposed to being a non-Maori young male) is correlated with criminal offending (it helps explain some of the variance of criminal offending in the general population).
A predictive tool to identify those ‘at risk’ of criminal offending could be developed based on that statistic (which is already collected and available in many datasets).
In fact, that ‘tool’ has already been invented and is, of course, often called racial profiling.
The difference can be put in stark terms: being a young Maori male does not cause criminal offending but it does (statistically at the population level) predict it.
For those interested, this is all part of the esoteric debate between those known as ’empiricists’ and those known as ‘scientific realists’.
Interestingly, much standard economic modelling seems to be of this empiricist kind and tends to eschew realist scientific theorising (i.e., production of theories that postulate hidden, generative causal mechanisms – e.g., such as William Harvey’s theory of the circulation of blood through veins and arteries).
An unfortunate consequence of that – given the leverage economists often have in the policy space – is that the public, and presumably many politicians, often interpret these economic ‘theories’ – i.e., statistical and mathematical models – as causal scientific theories.
But they aren’t. (Folk theories – appealing to ‘common sense’ – are sometimes used to provide the de facto causal explanation in support of the predictions of the modelling.)
That misunderstanding I think helps create all kinds of dangerous ‘unintended consequences’ in the social policy space – e.g., beneficiary bashing, retributive impulses towards those who commit crimes, anti-Maori racism, etc..
Fortunately there are growing areas such as behavioural economics, evolutionary economics and neuroeconomics that are trying to introduce ‘proper’ scientific theorising into economics.
For too long, economics, it seems, has relied upon Smith’s postulates about human nature as the only realist bit of theorising in the discipline.
Much science has been done on the general topic of ‘human nature’ since Smith’s time.
Until recently, that science seems to have passed economics by.
In fact IMO it’s one of the reasons that economics so far has been more religion than its acolytes’ pseudoscientific pretensions would have is believe.
If you went to the doctor with an ache and the doctor made a diagnosis solely on how your stats matched epidemiological data, your doctor should be done for malpractise.
It doesn’t work in medicine, it doesn’t work in economics, and it won’t work in social work.
It’s like putting real people in a test car and sending it into a crash wall at 130kph, knowing full well the impact will kill them (ignoring earlier research), and purposely neglecting to first reduce the speed to a level that will not kill, but just give them a headache.
But why you’d do it that way – even try to give them a headache – just exposes 1) total lack of ethics in aims (and lack of education or skill in research techniques) , 2) psychopathy 3) really really poor science 4) being told to do it that way by your employers/funders/Minister.
Tolley must go, so must the so-called officals. They were her people. In fact, the whole fucking lot have to go, which makes the argument kind of pointless. Get rid of these psychos – problem solved.
It’s not the researchers putting these kids at risk. They are ALREADY strapped into the seat of life – and some of them are ALREADY hurtling towards the crash wall.
But how is NOT observing these children going to make anything better either?
It’s not as is the researchers were proposing to actively intervene in their lives in order to set them up for abuse and crime. It really amounts to exactly the same thing as any other major longitudinal study – but with some predictions thrown in to test some ideas.
Social science is full of these issues because you really have no alternative but to conduct your research on real people – and the more serious the problem being studied – the more difficult these ethical issues become. That is why these supervisory committees exist.
But in each case you have to also include the impact of NOT doing the study as well.
Some screwed up negative backwards type statement/questions in there methinks RL, in particular first and last sentences.
Then there is this
“It’s not as is the researchers were proposing to actively intervene in their lives in order to set them up for abuse and crime.” ……….. Yes they were, from what I can see. They were going to actively intervene by way of active non-intervention
Sounds like you are familiar with these things, but I would suggest that if this sphere of study has got to this point then it has gone way too far down the rabbit hole and needs hauling out by the bunny tail for a severe telling-off
Yes they were, from what I can see. They were going to actively intervene by way of active non-intervention
And NOT doing this kind of study is a massive non-intervention as well. You just cannot have it both ways. This is exactly the same as many other hugely valuable research projects such as:
It’s been running over 40 years – and almost certainly it has included individuals who’ve been victims of harm, abuse and crime. Want to shut that one down as well?
Quite a different thing as there was no attempt at predicting outcomes before the study started and then standing back to see if it actually occurred. Taking a slice of the general population and following their lives (including presumably State interventions) is not the same. Can I draw your attention again to the Cartwright enquiry into the “unfortunate experiment ” which is a much closer analogue to this proposed study by MSD.
From the perspective of the participants the effect of the study, whether it is passively observational only like the famous Dunedin study – or this new one where the researchers were also attempting to use the data to validate a proposed predictive model – is exactly the same.
The ethics of such studies is based only partly on the effect on the subjects. It is also based on the state of knowledge of the researchers. Do they know or suspect that an UNINFORMED control group are at risk without intervention yet CHOOSE not to warn or inform or intervene.
Again, this is why the MSD proposal bears striking similarities to Green’s study.
But Cartwright had the benefit of hindsight – by 1987 it was known that early medical intervention was indeed the right thing to do. But when Green started the study in the 1960’s no-one knew that for certain.
Again I ask the question – what if it had not been the case? What if Green (and others) had not done the research and it turned out that early intervention had killed many women instead?
What Green did miss out was the ‘informed consent’ part. But again this was a consideration made in hindsight – in the 1960’s this was not thought of as so important. Indeed given the role of the placebo effect it was considered a simple way to ‘blind’ the study.
I think that’s misleading Red. I don’t know about 1960, but in later decades what Green was doing was unethical by contemporary practice at the time. It wasn’t the benefit of hindsight, it was the women at the time (patients, staff, feminist activists), who called the medical staff and the hospital on the practice and a stop was put to it.
That in the 1980s it was still very hard work to break the doctor is god ethos simply reflects that the culture was unethical too. But it’s not like the ethics hadn’t been discussed before that time. People didn’t suddenly have an ephiphany in 1987 about what was right and proper, people knew for a very long time, that’s the whole point, and that’s why we’ve had subsequent processes in NZ like the development of the Health and Disability Act.
“It’s been running over 40 years – and almost certainly it has included individuals who’ve been victims of harm, abuse and crime. Want to shut that one down as well?”
If a researcher on this one see one of the subjects about to harm themselves and the researcher does nothing about it then absolutely yes it needs to be amended.
The researchers are not hovering 24/7 over the shoulders of anyone. If something bad happens to one of the people participating the researcher usually only finds out about it well after the event.
They simply are not in the business of intervening – that’s the role of other institutions like the Police.
The point is that they are using existing diagnostic tools to predict in advance that a certain very vulnerable group is at risk and then proposing to take a “watch from afar” role in order to see whether the predicted harm comes to pass.
This is what makes this case so similar to Green’s experiment at National womens. He actually suspected that intervention was the way to go, but didn’t intervene and watched the cancer develop in order to develop data to support his case for intervention. (From Memory).
Green had plenty of ethical alternatives. For instance, he could have told affected women that their case had reached an early cancer stage and would they like to exit the study and get treatment.
By doing so he could have avoided accusations that he was playing God with other peoples lives.
CV
I’m glad to see you put it so clearly. There was an alternative, which would have allowed his study to run with useful findings and you have explained it.
The medical profession is strong on trust being important which comes up often when a desire for ethanasia to be legal comes up. But they will countenance some dodgy practices from within their own.
Green’s experiment would have caused a massive lack of trust in doctors when family concerned found that Green had allowed the cervical cancer to advance too far for healing treatment. Particularly among the people who had to arrange to go with Mum or daughter from the regions to the clinic in the city many times, at their own cost I should think, but always disruptive of family life and trusting him to care for her and advise the true situation, and ask for permission to delay treatment and explain outcome which was not done properly.
did any of these children volunteer to be part of the study group?
that is your difference to your group trying experimental medicine. The guys that are dying of cancer might volunteer for a new drug to be tested for a. a cure that will heal them, or b. a cure that may heal those that get ill long after the study subjects have died.
However, the babies/newborn/little children in this ‘study group’ would most likely not have volunteered or consented to this study. And as far as i am concerned if we know that a child is in danger of abuse we have a duty to call CYF or the police.
And as far as i am concerned if we know that a child is in danger of abuse we have a duty to call CYF or the police.
And at no point would have this study stopped these normal processes. No-one was proposing that the researchers just let it keep on happening for the jollies of it.
All it was attempting to do was predict the risk of abuse – and no-one can act to prevent this before it happens.
And at no point would have this study stopped these normal processes. No-one was proposing that the researchers just let it keep on happening for the jollies of it.
The briefing note the Minister got clearly said that follow up would be at 2 years, to see if predicted negative outcomes had in fact occurred.
But this is different to not letting CYF intervene if abuse is detected through the normal methods, e.g. a teacher reports it.
Folk are acting like the study was designed to look at the kid’s factors at birth, then refuse to provide any social service or government interaction for two years, upon which time they just count how many of the kids are dead.
As it is, the lack of assessment could simply result in a number of kids being labelled “at high risk” when they’re not, wasting resources and at worst resulting in needless prosecution (false positive “high risk” kid breaks arm as simple accident, and the risk rating makes people more suspicious of abuse which changes their enforcement bias) while genuinely at risk kids are ignored.
“Folk are acting like the study was designed to look at the kid’s factors at birth, then refuse to provide any social service or government interaction for two years, upon which time they just count how many of the kids are dead.”
Can you read it another way? Graphic language aside that is a good summing up imo.
The predictive model is untested and possibly either not sensitive enough (so it doesn’t actually help in the prevention/detection of harm) or not specific enough (so resources are rationed from those in greater need to those in little to no need), so making intervention decisions based on that model is not just unwise but could possibly do more harm than good.
So no interventions should be made based on that model until its reliability as a screening tool is known.
Interventions based on all the systems currently in use would still be made, and where the model predicted those interventions, that’s good for the model, where the model did not predict those interventions, that’s bad, and where the model predicted interventions were required when they were not, that’s also bad.
There are real concerns with using macro data to make predictions about specific individuals, though, simply because the closer you look based on assumptions the more likely you are (and the more inclined you are) to find something, so it reinforces one’s prejudices rather than being a genuine tool.
That’s essentially the problem with racial profiling by police.
I tend to follow the philosophy that macro data can make extrapolated predictions at a population level, but you need direct case data to draw conclusions about individuals. But then this predictive model comes along so if a case worker makes a judgement based on the facts of the case they might have to second-guess the model. But if they do that, it’s on their head if they’re wrong, but if they just say “computer says abuse” their arse is covered.
I guess my issue is with the concept of the model itself and what it will be used for, rather than the testing proposal.
Except there needs to be some check that Tolley’s “interventions” don’t do more harm than they prevent. Given how intrusive this kind of monitoring of people who have committed no crime is, and the profiling involved, some checks do need to be done.
From what I understand, these families are going to be treated as criminals rather than given extra support and resources. It would be better to provide families with what they need, but this is not the ‘treatment’ that these families in the control group are missing out on, nor is it the default for vulnerable families or people in need generally.
If Anne Tolley stops anything on the basis of it being wrong I wonder what’s the real reason.
I thought the predictive model was to identify the most at risk of family violence or distress, and ensure that the family concerned had assistance through the difficult years. Presumably that could involve learning better parenting methods, and coping strategies.
But needed is understanding that concomitantly a lot of the problem arises from chronic poverty and people’s necessary accommodation to the way of life that brings. The money worries, regular shortages or absence of comfort and meeting of needs with no hope for better conditions would remain as the elephant in the room. That would not have been helped by this callous, irresponsible government system at presently operating.
Watching to see if the predictive model was effective did not have to mean, not doing anything. The government welfare arm is not a nature photographer or researcher recording nature unrestrained. Just watching and stepping in when needed, supporting and helping to a certain extent, then stepping out and monitoring the effectiveness of that help, would have been enough to provide results for assessment without the strict extreme required for academically rigorous proof.
That would have shown an honest willingness on the part of government and Tolley but from her past history, it has been observed that she is not a person who wishes well to the strugglers of our country.
We have an aristocratic mutation grown in our society, which is more the meritocratic model. And these self-satisfied higher educated highly paid people regard themselves on the one hand as exceptional and deserving of high rewards, and on the other hand as models that anyone who wanted to achieve the same lifestyle, could follow if they tried and worked harder. Contradictory thinking.
Now we have the code of deserving and undeserving that goes right back to the cold charity, unwillingly ladelled out with many strictures, of the 19th century. How we have advanced! Not.
The thing that bothers me is that this is now so deeply embedded in the civil service culture.
This one stood out:
“It attempts to predict abuse, welfare dependency and the likelihood of a child’s downward spiral into crime on the path to adulthood so it can better target spending.”
Why are they measuring is spending targeting rather than assitance targeting? They’re not the same thing, but I think it’s clear that it’s all about the money now.
Well if we want to target spending, ministerial expenses are out today.
Now maybe should we start profiling MP’s to see which ones will spend more time in the mini bar than others adding to the public health bill , which ones won’t find receipts or want to stay at only the best hotel which ones are going to have their kids brought up by the state after a broken marriage, add in a drug test or two so they don’t get paid until they are clean.
That way we could pick the one’s that don’t cost as much.
the thought that occurs is that, while I disagree with her decision, credit to Tolley for actually doing her job and making a decision based on an interpretation of what she actually read.
CF. the serco debacle where the information was handed on a plate and ignored until it hit the media.
Major corporates and their shareholders will definitely benefit from the TPPA. That’s why they are the ones pushing hardest for it. And keeping it secret.
The Gormless Fool formerly known as Oleolebiscuitbarrell 5.1.3.1
They’re keeping it secret because negotiating in public tends to make negotiation difficult. That is why they have all been done this way since the beginning of time. By everyone.
Last year, we made a billion and a half dollars from the China FTA. Tax on a billion and a half dollars is about $400m. We spent that on shit you guys like getting for free.
3. Show how much China has extracted from and or will extract going forward. Oh and illustrate environmental damage and other societal mess left behind by the FTA
Quite comfortably you are one of a most puerile posters here which is saying something
Coming across as a fuck-wit comes exceedingly easily to you
The Gormless Fool formerly known as Oleolebiscuitbarrell 5.1.3.1.2.1
Warner Bros. I noticed Jackson is still on the rich list. Hasn’t he done well assisted by the tax payer
Sky City
Any sporting body who’s participants want to play at life i.e. America’s Cup. and once again hasn’t Couttss done well via the tax payer.
Pay down the massive debt (now at over a billion) created by that double dipping dickhead from Dipton giving tax breaks to the higher income earners who do not pay the same % of their income through tax avoidance.
Private schools, If these prats want to send their offspring to an elitist school to learn how to rule, don’t expect tax payers to subsidise it
Charter Schools, a dismal failure but still being bailed out by the tax payer.
Stupid referendum on the flag that nobody wants
Gold plated perks for ALL Members of Parliament for life.
Let’s start having a bit less of the corporate welfare, when the money should be allocated to other areas.
Nothing is free we all contribute with our taxes the only ones getting it free are the likes of Rio Tinto.
You wrote
“We spent that on shit you guys like getting for free. “
I see you have used the royal “we”. Who the fuck are the “we”? More to the point who the fuck are you? You are not another non society Randian brain dead fuckwit are you, who thinks that you have some god given right and privilege and first go over other people.
The Gormless Fool formerly known as Oleolebiscuitbarrell …
But when all parties to the negotiation have seen the position documents – why would you not release the position documents to the people whose position is described ? Todd couldn’t quite deliver clarity on this,
On the face of it this TPP directive looks to put even the Superfund on the skids forcing it to be run by private operators taking a bigger cut and even EQC to give way to the big insurance companies.
The new age of serfdom is just around the corner.
I missed this the other day and it was thrown back into my to view box on youtube I think after watching your video today Morrissey – So thanks. It raises some great points about the workings of propaganda in The USA. Which, I think we see here. I’m thinking the NBR or the herald are probably our equivalent.
A post from David Hood over on Public Address is rather technical but also disturbing. It seems that billions of dollars are entering the housing market but it is not known from whence it comes. He calls it Magic Money.
He also looks at the flaw in the “supply side” claims.
David says “somethings up.” Indeed.
It is a good analysis based directly on data reported to the Reserve Bank. I read it this morning.
The divergence between local mortgage funding and the funds tied up in houses over the last 15 years, especially since 2006 shows a bloody disturbing pattern of excessive speculation, and catastrophically in the last 4 years.
Unless of course some ideological numerically challenged idiots can point to funding sources in the local economy for hundreds of billions of dollars, I’m just going to assume this is from cheap overseas money piling into speculating mainly on Auckland properties.
In fact I am going to take a little informed leap and say that just at present most of the magic money appears to be coming from mainland China – because it is logical and backed by some rough but statistically valid evidence.
This isn’t a particular attack on Chinese despite what dickheads chose to believe. The problem is that there is nothing to stop people with capital that isn’t working much anywhere in the world looking for reasonably safe property investments with good returns continuing to pile it high in the Auckland market. The consequences for Auckland as a working city are dire.
I’d also point out to our numerically illiterates who were quoting David Hood’s analysis at me last week, that this magic money was what all of his previous analysis said as well. They just hadn’t read the comments carefully enough to understand what it meant.
I guess that I’ll just have to educate our local numerical idiots for a few years about the value of data and how to read it.
(if anyone hasn’t figured out that I’m annoyed by some of the blatant ideological stupidity I saw last week, can probably detect it now… )
The Gormless Fool formerly known as Oleolebiscuitbarrell 8.1.1
Nauru is going through a crisis with the President and leaders rejecting democracy in favour of direct, dictatorial action to suit themselves. Australia and the flow of money and the dumping of aliens in bad conditions on the island causing strain on the political system has probably tipped the balance.
In addition Nauru’s leaders looking round the world, have the example of barefaced dictatorial behaviour in Fiji by Bana….and the military there. There is Mugabe who has found a satisfactory system for him to grasp and hold onto power in Zimbabwe. There is the willingness for the USA to support countries with undemocratic political systems when it suits the USA.
The powerful democratic nations can surprisingly, act against encouraging the system of democracy in their own as well as other countries, with it virtues of valuing of individuals as well as groups. But the empty rhetoric about it continues while the undermining of it goes on.
edited
as the social, economic and environmental conditions of individual countries deteriorate, we will see the process of democracy continue to get hollowed out or abandoned.
Would you agree the style of presentation suggests Slater really really really does not want this to go much further ?
Apart from alluding to sexts and how he is obviously lusting after the associated scandal-mongering that would ensue, he appears to be concerned with the prospective duration and the potential for exposure from the legal proceedings.
Thats the problem with bully boys like Colin Craig isn’t it, they can afford to tie up people in the courts they threaten people with the courts
Even the most biast, one-eyed, Whaleoil hater (otherwise known as the your average Standard reader) would agree that Colon Craig is just trying to keep his name in the public eye
A damn expensive way to do it imho and its going to come back and bite him in the ass
…would agree that Colon Craig is just trying to keep his name in the public eye
Nope. I doubt if he cares enough about that particular role now.
I suspect that he has decided (like so many of us) that Cameron Slater and other similar opportunistic arseholes just need to be eliminated from our political sphere. They don’t add anything. They lie routinely about facts because they care far more for the look of things than reality. They cause a lot of damage to the local political debate. They don’t add a damn thing to the debate because all they are concerned about is destruction rather than construction.
Anyone sensible just needs to go a little out of their way to screw them over in whatever way is required to get them out of the way of the rational public debate. Flush them in such a way that no-one wants to try the same tricks again. Do the same to their rather disgusting apologists.
What it comes down to is you don’t like them therefore you support anyone that wants to take them down even if the people doing the “taking” are…dubious to say the least
Puckish, that could be restated as saying that the cause for which you may have allies is more important than who that ally is. Lprent has been very strong for a long time about Slater and his actions. Craig has just finally come to that realisation when he fell out with his fellow right wingers for whom Slater is the hack man.
I’m just saying that championing people such as Colin Craig, you know the guy thats got his former PA tied up in a non-disclosure agreement yet seems to spread as many details about as his likes and Krim Dot Con is not a good look
And I’m ‘just saying’ that people who look beyond that rather shallow interpretation of events will see that the cause which both Craig and many left -wingers espouse is the correct one.
That common cause is the rat-bag actions of a sociopathic individual who is used by others as their dirt-spreader and purveyer of pathogenic politics.
You know, Puckish, I never read of many individuals who criticised the New Zealand government for having allied with Joe Stalin in their common cause against fascism and Hitler. The enemy of my enemy is my friend, and all that.
Secondly, who’s ‘championing’ Craig? A rather loaded word, there.
Heres the thing though I don’t think Colin Craig is all that bothered by the cause so much as he can use it to stay in the limelight and convince the rest of followers that hes still a viable option for election
Desperate times call for desperate measures and this is hardly desperate except for those people who really, really dislike John Key
Its not a good look for the left to be cuddling up to drongoes simply because they don’t like certain individuals on the right
here’s a different thought:
As Colin Craig is reported as being a sternly religious person who obviously strayed off whatever path he was walking, perhaps the legal proceedings (he might be embarking upon) are a penance.
A form of redemptive service to allow him to reinstate his own conviction to his own beliefs.
I don’t just dislike them. I think that they are dangerous and probably criminals.
I look at people and organisations as being potential dangers to our society and act against the worst of them first.
The conservatives I don’t like much because of their policies and attitudes. However they were acting well within the framework of political change systems in NZ. That means I will voice my opposition to them and their ideas, but respect their right to disagree.
Cameron Slater and the idiots at Lauda Finem, I view as acting as deliberately destructive fools who are too stupid to understand what they are really doing (read Dirty POlitics on the corrosive effects that they produce in politics). I also think that it likely that much of what they do is criminal. So I act against them as far as the laws allow, and encourage others to do so as well.
What is so hard for you to understand? This behaviour on my part must be pretty damn obvious even to posturing fools. FFS you rail against criminals here in a simplistic and rather stupid way all of the time as being a danger to society, in fact I have seen you do it today. You appear to follow the exact same logic – just because my reasons are a bit more thoughtful and less reflexive than yours shouldn’t make that much of a difference.
Mainfreight just attacked the government’s lack of support for rail on RNZ saying just for Mainfreight alone if the rail system was closed this would add 21,500 truck movements.
Stick that in your pipe Bill English.
The Nats really don’t get the long-term vision thing.
they do ….and it is lining the pockets of themselves and their mates….they want to privatise KiwiRail imo…and Goldman Sachs is there to help them,
Goldman Sachs advises Treasury on sale of state assets…and on private investment opportunities…Is NZ rail being starved of taxpayer funds so it can be sold off privately and made into a private rail network.? ( the way they have done in Britain?)
“Goldman Sachs is one of the largest infrastructure fund managers globally, having raised more than $10 billion of capital since the inception of the business in 2006.
The primary focus for GS Infrastructure Partners (GSIP) is on investment opportunities with the following parameters:
Sectors including transportation infrastructure (such as airports, ports, railways and roads) and utilities infrastructure (such as electricity, gas and water networks and conventional/ renewable contracted power generation),….
Labour needs to introduce an Anti- Money Laundering BIll…banks need to be on notice!
(Penny is right on the button to keep going on about the need for anti- corruption and anti -money laundering laws… especially as applied to what is going on in Auckland…It is no solution to Auckland’s problems to spread it to the rest of New Zealand )
“The “wall of Chinese capital” hitting property markets in Sydney and Melbourne will not ease up until the government introduces its anti-money laundering legislation, says an expert in ‘flight capital’….
The $US50,000 limit on exchanging Chinese currency into $US and $A was being breached in the majority of Chinese property deals in Melbourne and Sydney, and once the AML laws were introduced, the “wall of capital” from China would dry up.
Is anyone else suffering from Facebook’s attentions more than usual lately? I get two or three a day from them telling me I have more friends than I know about exhorting me to embrace and tell all to the world. FT. I don’t want to share every little nook and cranny about me so they can read me like a hedgehog in a spotlight, and be at my elbow guiding me to sites where they want to sell, sell.
Others seem to love fb and tweet. Yet as time goes on sinister things pop out of all these tech things like an evil genie.
Zizek says that there is too much smoothing our way so we slide or are directed along well-oiled grooves with expected levels of satisfaction, rather than stride around our domain and find and experience new things, have serendipity meetings and surprises.
just like the myth of getting more work done by having your emails sent to you day and night – doesn’t save time at all, just re-orders it to intrude into private time. No savings or advantages whatsoever…
In the past in an 8 hour day, communicate 1 hour, work 7.
Today in an 8 hour day, communicate 3 hours, work 5.
Amply evidenced by recent projects completed which took same amount of time, money and effort as pre-email days…. i.e. internet communicatons provided no benefit to cost or time. Fact.
Just like we were sold the idea of speed and ease of eftpos – ha ha ha ha ha
So can any lawyers on here explain why this guy doesn’t have a preventitve detention order slapped on him instead of a jail term in case he doesn’t take part in any courses and is still considered a threat when his sentence ends
Surely judges should err on the side of keeping the community safe?
The site is a bit slow at present. There is some clown in AWS east coast that has a new largish attack cluster that is a bit aggravating.
I got up last night to put a preventative in. However that just limited the impact, which has continued to increase today. So page displays and comments are a lot slower today. It hasn’t been worrisome enough to divert more time to..
I’ll be blocking the fool a bit more strongly after I get home, and getting their attack base shutdown.
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Determining the hardest sport in the world is a subjective matter, as the difficulty level can vary depending on individual abilities, physical attributes, and experience. However, based on various factors including physical demands, technical skills, mental fortitude, and overall accomplishment, here is an exploration of some of the most challenging ...
The allure of sport transcends age, culture, and geographical boundaries. It captivates hearts, ignites passions, and provides unparalleled entertainment. Behind the spectacle, however, lies a fascinating world of financial investment and expenditure. Among the vast array of competitive pursuits, one question looms large: which sport carries the hefty title of ...
Introduction Pickleball, a rapidly growing paddle sport, has captured the hearts and imaginations of millions around the world. Its blend of tennis, badminton, and table tennis elements has made it a favorite among players of all ages and skill levels. As the sport’s popularity continues to surge, the question on ...
Abstract: Soccer, the global phenomenon captivating millions worldwide, has a rich history that spans centuries. Its origins trace back to ancient civilizations, but the modern version we know and love emerged through a complex interplay of cultural influences and innovations. This article delves into the fascinating journey of soccer’s evolution, ...
Tinting car windows offers numerous benefits, including enhanced privacy, reduced glare, UV protection, and a more stylish look for your vehicle. However, the cost of window tinting can vary significantly depending on several factors. This article provides a comprehensive guide to help you understand how much you can expect to ...
Our two-tiered system for veterans’ support is out of step with our closest partners, and all parties in Parliament should work together to fix it, Labour veterans’ affairs spokesperson Greg O’Connor said. ...
Stripping two Ministers of their portfolios just six months into the job shows Christopher Luxon’s management style is lacking, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said. ...
It appears Nicola Willis is about to pull the rug out from under the feet of local communities still dealing with the aftermath of last year’s severe weather, and local councils relying on funding to build back from these disasters. ...
The Government is making short-sighted changes to the Resource Management Act (RMA) that will take away environmental protection in favour of short-term profits, Labour’s environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said today. ...
Labour welcomes the release of the report into the North Island weather events and looks forward to working with the Government to ensure that New Zealand is as prepared as it can be for the next natural disaster. ...
The Labour Party has called for the New Zealand Government to recognise Palestine, as a material step towards progressing the two-State solution needed to achieve a lasting peace in the region. ...
Some of our country’s most important work, stopping the sexual exploitation of children and violent extremism could go along with staff on the frontline at ports and airports. ...
The Government’s Fast Track Approvals Bill will give projects such as new coal mines a ‘get out of jail free’ card to wreak havoc on the environment, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said today. ...
Cuts to frontline hospital staff are not only a broken election promise, it shows the reckless tax cuts have well and truly hit the frontline of the health system, says Labour Health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall. ...
The Green Party has joined the call for public submissions on the fast-track legislation to be extended after the Ombudsman forced the Government to release the list of organisations invited to apply just hours before submissions close. ...
New Zealand’s good work at reducing climate emissions for three years in a row will be undone by the National government’s lack of ambition and scrapping programmes that were making a difference, Labour Party climate spokesperson Megan Woods said today. ...
More essential jobs could be on the chopping block, this time Ministry of Education staff on the school lunches team are set to find out whether they're in line to lose their jobs. ...
The Government is trying to bring in a law that will allow Ministers to cut corners and kill off native species, Labour environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said. ...
Cancelling urgently needed new Cook Strait ferries and hiking the cost of public transport for many Kiwis so that National can announce the prospect of another tunnel for Wellington is not making good choices, Labour Transport Spokesperson Tangi Utikere said. ...
A laundry list of additional costs for Tāmaki Makarau Auckland shows the Minister for the city is not delivering for the people who live there, says Labour Auckland Issues spokesperson Shanan Halbert. ...
The Green Party has today launched a step-by-step guide to help New Zealanders make their voice heard on the Government’s democracy dodging and anti-environment fast track legislation. ...
The National Government’s proposed changes to the Residential Tenancies Act will mean tenants can be turfed from their homes by landlords with little notice, Labour housing spokesperson Kieran McAnulty said. ...
Green Party co-leader Marama Davidson is calling on all parties to support a common-sense change that’s great for the planet and great for consumers after her member’s bill was drawn from the ballot today. ...
A significant milestone has been reached in the fight to strike an anti-Pasifika and unfair law from the country’s books after Teanau Tuiono’s members’ bill passed its first reading. ...
New Zealand has today missed the opportunity to uphold the right to a clean, healthy, and sustainable environment, says James Shaw after his member’s bill was voted down in its first reading. ...
Today’s advice from the Climate Change Commission paints a sobering reality of the challenge we face in combating climate change, especially in light of recent Government policy announcements. ...
Minister for Disability Issues Penny Simmonds appears to have delayed a report back to Cabinet on the progress New Zealand is making against international obligations for disabled New Zealanders. ...
The Government’s newly announced review of methane emissions reduction targets hints at its desire to delay Aotearoa New Zealand’s urgent transition to a climate safe future, the Green Party said. ...
The Government must commit to the Maitai School building project for students with high and complex needs, to ensure disabled students from the top of the South Island have somewhere to learn. ...
Mental Health Minister Matt Doocey and his Government colleagues have made a meal of their mental health commitments, showing how flimsy their efforts to champion the issue truly are, says Labour Mental Health spokesperson Ingrid Leary. ...
Paul Goldsmith will take on responsibility for the Media and Communications portfolio, while Louise Upston will pick up the Disability Issues portfolio, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon announced today. “Our Government is relentlessly focused on getting New Zealand back on track. As issues change in prominence, I plan to adjust Ministerial ...
Recreational catch limits will be reduced in areas of Fiordland and the Chatham Islands to help keep those fisheries healthy and sustainable, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. The lower recreational daily catch limits for a range of finfish and shellfish species caught in the Fiordland Marine Area and ...
Energy Minister Simeon Brown has welcomed an important milestone in New Zealand’s hydrogen future, with the opening of the country’s first network of hydrogen refuelling stations in Wiri. “I want to congratulate the team at Hiringa Energy and its partners K one W one (K1W1), Mitsui & Co New Zealand ...
The coalition Government is delivering on its commitment to improve resource management laws and give greater certainty to consent applicants, with a Bill to amend the Resource Management Act (RMA) expected to be introduced to Parliament next month. RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop has today outlined the first RMA Amendment ...
Overseas models for regulating the oil and gas sector, including their decommissioning regimes, are being carefully scrutinised as a potential template for New Zealand’s own sector, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. The Coalition Government is focused on rebuilding investor confidence in New Zealand’s energy sector as it looks to strengthen ...
Emergency Management and Recovery Minister Mark Mitchell has today released the Report of the Government Inquiry into the response to the North Island Severe Weather Events. “The report shows that New Zealand’s emergency management system is not fit-for-purpose and there are some significant gaps we need to address,” Mr Mitchell ...
Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith is today travelling to Europe where he’ll update the United Nations Human Rights Council on the Government’s work to restore law and order. “Attending the Universal Periodic Review in Geneva provides us with an opportunity to present New Zealand’s human rights progress, priorities, and challenges, while ...
Associate Agriculture Minister, Mark Patterson, formally reopened the world’s largest wool processing facility today in Awatoto, Napier, following a $50 million rebuild and refurbishment project. “The reopening of this facility will significantly lift the economic opportunities available to New Zealand’s wool sector, which already accounts for 20 per cent of ...
Hon Andrew Bayly, Minister for Small Business and Manufacturing At the Southland Otago Regional Engineering Collective (SOREC) Summit, 18 April, Dunedin Ngā mihi nui, Ko Andrew Bayly aho, Ko Whanganui aho Good Afternoon and thank you for inviting me to open your summit today. I am delighted ...
The Government is delivering on its commitment to bring back the Three Strikes legislation, Associate Justice Minister Nicole McKee announced today. “Our Government is committed to restoring law and order and enforcing appropriate consequences on criminals. We are making it clear that repeat serious violent or sexual offending is not ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters has today announced four new diplomatic appointments for New Zealand’s overseas missions. “Our diplomats have a vital role in maintaining and protecting New Zealand’s interests around the world,” Mr Peters says. “I am pleased to announce the appointment of these senior diplomats from the ...
New Zealand is contributing NZ$7 million to support communities affected by severe food insecurity and other urgent humanitarian needs in Ethiopia and Somalia, Foreign Minister Rt Hon Winston Peters announced today. “Over 21 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance across Ethiopia, with a further 6.9 million people ...
Minister for Arts, Culture and Heritage Paul Goldsmith is congratulating Mataaho Collective for winning the Golden Lion for best participant in the main exhibition at the Venice Biennale. "Congratulations to the Mataaho Collective for winning one of the world's most prestigious art prizes at the Venice Biennale. “It is good ...
The Government is reforming financial services to improve access to home loans and other lending, and strengthen customer protections, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly and Housing Minister Chris Bishop announced today. “Our coalition Government is committed to rebuilding the economy and making life simpler by cutting red tape. We are ...
“China remains a strong commercial opportunity for Kiwi exporters as Chinese businesses and consumers continue to value our high-quality safe produce,” Trade and Agriculture Minister Todd McClay says. Mr McClay has returned to New Zealand following visits to Beijing, Harbin and Shanghai where he met ministers, governors and mayors and engaged in trade and agricultural events with the New ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has completed a successful trip to Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines, deepening relationships and capitalising on opportunities. Mr Luxon was accompanied by a business delegation and says the choice of countries represents the priority the New Zealand Government places on South East Asia, and our relationships in ...
New Zealand is demonstrating its commitment to reducing global greenhouse emissions, and supporting clean energy transition in South East Asia, through a contribution of NZ$41 million (US$25 million) in climate finance to the Asian Development Bank (ADB)-led Energy Transition Mechanism (ETM). Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Climate Change Minister Simon Watts announced ...
The Government is today releasing a list of organisations who received letters about the Fast-track applications process, says RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop. “Recently Ministers and agencies have received a series of OIA requests for a list of organisations to whom I wrote with information on applying to have a ...
Attorney-General Judith Collins today announced the appointment of Wellington Barrister David Jonathan Boldt as a Judge of the High Court, and the Honourable Justice Matthew Palmer as a Judge of the Court of Appeal. Justice Boldt graduated with an LLB from Victoria University of Wellington in 1990, and also holds ...
Education Minister Erica Stanford will lead the New Zealand delegation at the 2024 International Summit on the Teaching Profession (ISTP) held in Singapore. The delegation includes representatives from the Post Primary Teachers’ Association (PPTA) Te Wehengarua and the New Zealand Educational Institute (NZEI) Te Riu Roa. The summit is co-hosted ...
A stopbank upgrade project in Tairawhiti partly funded by the Government has increased flood resilience for around 7000ha of residential and horticultural land so far, Regional Development Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones today attended a dawn service in Gisborne to mark the end of the first stage of the ...
Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters will represent the Government at Anzac Day commemorations on the Gallipoli Peninsula next week and engage with senior representatives of the Turkish government in Istanbul. “The Gallipoli campaign is a defining event in our history. It will be a privilege to share the occasion ...
Science, Innovation and Technology and Defence Minister Judith Collins will next week attend the OECD Science and Technology Ministerial conference in Paris and Anzac Day commemorations in Belgium. “Science, innovation and technology have a major role to play in rebuilding our economy and achieving better health, environmental and social outcomes ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon held a bilateral meeting today with the President of the Philippines, Ferdinand Marcos Jr. The Prime Minister was accompanied by MP Paulo Garcia, the first Filipino to be elected to a legislature outside the Philippines. During today’s meeting, Prime Minister Luxon and President Marcos Jr discussed opportunities to ...
The Government has announced that $20 million in funding will be made available to Westport to fund much needed flood protection around the town. This measure will significantly improve the resilience of the community, says Local Government Minister Simeon Brown. “The Westport community has already been allocated almost $3 million ...
The Government is proud to support the first ever Repco Supercars Championship event in Taupō as up to 70,000 motorsport fans attend the Taupō International Motorsport Park this weekend, says Economic Development Minister Melissa Lee. “Anticipation for the ITM Taupō Super400 is huge, with tickets and accommodation selling out weeks ...
Local Government Minister Simeon Brown has announced an increase to the Rates Rebate Scheme, putting money back into the pockets of low-income homeowners. “The coalition Government is committed to bringing down the cost of living for New Zealanders. That includes targeted support for those Kiwis who are doing things tough, such ...
The Coalition Government is investing in a project to boost survival rates of New Zealand mussels and grow the industry, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones has announced. “This project seeks to increase the resilience of our mussels and significantly boost the sector’s productivity,” Mr Jones says. “The project - ...
Benefit figures released today underscore the importance of the Government’s plan to rebuild the economy and have 50,000 fewer people on Jobseeker Support, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. “Benefit numbers are still significantly higher than when National was last in government, when there was about 70,000 fewer ...
The Government’s commitment to doubling New Zealand’s renewable energy capacity is backed by new data showing that clean energy has helped the country reach its lowest annual gross emissions since 1999, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says. New Zealand’s latest Greenhouse Gas Inventory (1990-2022) published today, shows gross emissions fell ...
The Government is bringing the earthquake-prone building review forward, with work to start immediately, and extending the deadline for remediations by four years, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “Our Government is focused on rebuilding the economy. A key part of our plan is to cut red tape that ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and his Thai counterpart, Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, have today agreed that New Zealand and the Kingdom of Thailand will upgrade the bilateral relationship to a Strategic Partnership by 2026. “New Zealand and Thailand have a lot to offer each other. We have a strong mutual desire to build ...
RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop and Transport Minister Simeon Brown have today announced the Coalition Government’s intention to extend port coastal permits for a further 20 years, providing port operators with certainty to continue their operations. “The introduction of the Resource Management Act in 1991 required ports to obtain coastal ...
Today’s announcement that inflation is down to 4 per cent is encouraging news for Kiwis, but there is more work to be done - underlining the importance of the Government’s plan to get the economy back on track, acting Finance Minister Chris Bishop says. “Inflation is now at 4 per ...
Refreshed health guidance released today will help parents and schools make informed decisions about whether their child needs to be in school, addressing one of the key issues affecting school attendance, says Associate Education Minister David Seymour. In recent years, consistently across all school terms, short-term illness or medical reasons ...
Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones is streamlining high-level oceans management while maintaining a focus on supporting the sector’s role in the export-led recovery of the economy. “I am working to realise the untapped potential of our fishing and aquaculture sector. To achieve that we need to be smarter with ...
Associate Agriculture Minister Mark Patterson is speaking at the International Wool Textile Organisation Congress in Adelaide, promoting New Zealand wool, and outlining the coalition Government’s support for the revitalisation the sector. "New Zealand’s wool exports reached $400 million in the year to 30 June 2023, and the coalition Government ...
The Government is making legislative changes to make it easier for new early learning services to be established, and for existing services to operate, Associate Education Minister David Seymour says. The changes involve repealing the network approval provisions that apply when someone wants to establish a new early learning service, ...
Changes to the Resource Management Act will align consenting for coal mining to other forms of mining to reduce barriers that are holding back economic development, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. “The inconsistent treatment of coal mining compared with other extractive activities is burdensome red tape that fails to acknowledge ...
Trade, Agriculture and Forestry Minister Todd McClay has concluded productive discussions with ministerial counterparts in Beijing today, in support of the New Zealand-China trade and economic relationship. “My meeting with Commerce Minister Wang Wentao reaffirmed the complementary nature of the bilateral trade relationship, with our Free Trade Agreement at its ...
“Never again - No AUKUS” was the message of the wreath laid at this morning’s national ANZAC Day commemorative service at Pukeahu National War Memorial Park this morning by the Stop AUKUS group. ...
Until this month, Auckland swimmer Hazel Ouwehand had never met a qualifying time in an Olympic event for a New Zealand team, even as a junior. Now she’s very likely off to the Paris Olympics after swimming well under the qualifying standard in the 100m butterfly twice – both in ...
While Anzac Day has experienced a resurgence in recent years, our other day of remembrance has slowly faded from view.The Sunday Essay is made possible thanks to the support of Creative New Zealand. Original illustrations by Hope McConnell.First published in 2022.The high school’s head girl and ...
Australian and New Zealand volunteers fought together in the Waikato War, yet still its place in the Anzac tradition is unacknowledged by our defence forces or Returned Services Association.First published in 2018.When I was a boy cub I attended Anzac Day services in the South Auckland suburb of ...
A poem by Wellington writer Tayi Tibble.Hoki Mai She kisses him goodbye with her eyes still wet and alight from their last swim in the Awatere river. At the train station celebration, she leads the Kapa Haka but her voice keeps breaking under and over itself like waves. ...
A poem from Bill Manhire’s 2017 book of verse Some Things to Place in a Coffin.My World War I Poem Inside each trench, the sound of prayer. Inside each prayer, the sound of digging. Image courtesy of Auckland War Memorial Museum. ...
There are three books I have wolfed down in one sitting over the last two years. Colleen Maria Lenihan’s gorgeous and sad debut Kōhine, Noelle McCarthy’s memoir Grand about becoming her mother and then unbecoming her, and now Hine Toa, a staunch yet gentle self-portrait by living legend Ngāhuia te ...
Loading…(function(i,s,o,g,r,a,m){var ql=document.querySelectorAll('A[quiz],DIV[quiz],A[data-quiz],DIV[data-quiz]'); if(ql){if(ql.length){for(var k=0;k<ql.length;k++){ql[k].id='quiz-embed-'+k;ql[k].href="javascript:var i=document.getElementById('quiz-embed-"+k+"');try{qz.startQuiz(i)}catch(e){i.start=1;i.style.cursor='wait';i.style.opacity='0.5'};void(0);"}}};i['QP']=r;i[r]=i[r]||function(){(i[r].q=i[r].q||[]).push(arguments)},i[r].l=1*new Date();a=s.createElement(o),m=s.getElementsByTagName(o)[0];a.async=1;a.src=g;m.parentNode.insertBefore(a,m)})(window,document,'script','https://take.quiz-maker.com/3012/CDN/quiz-embed-v1.js','qp'); Got a good quiz question?Send Newsroom your questions. The post Newsroom daily quiz, Thursday 25 April appeared first on Newsroom. ...
Asia Pacific Report Students and activist staff at Australia’s University of Sydney (USyd) have set up a Gaza solidarity encampment in support of Palestinians and similar student-led protests in the United States. The camp was pitched as mass graves, crippled hospitals, thousands of civilian deaths and the near-total destruction of ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By James B. Dorey, Lecturer in Biological Sciences, University of Wollongong Australian teddy bear bees are cute and fluffy, but get a look at that massive (unbarbed) stinger! James Dorey Photography Most of us have been stung by a bee and we ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jen Roberts, Senior Lecturer, School of Humanities and Social Inquiry, University of Wollongong Aussie~mobs/FlickrVictor Farr, a private in the 1st Infantry Battalion, was among the first to land at Anzac Cove just before dawn on April 25 1915. Victor Farr ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Gregory Moore, Senior Research Associate, School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences, The University of Melbourne Gregory Moore I had the good fortune to care for the sugar gum at The University of Melbourne’s Burnley Gardens in Victoria where I worked for ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Hawkins, Senior Lecturer, Canberra School of Politics, Economics and Society, University of Canberra BagzhanSadvakassov/Upsplash, CC BY-SA Australia’s inflation rate has fallen for the fifth successive quarter, and it’s now less than half of what it was back in late 2022. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rachel Ong ViforJ, ARC Future Fellow & Professor of Economics, Curtin University Just when we think the price of rentals could not get any worse, this week’s Rental Affordability Snapshot by Anglicare has revealed low-income Australians are facing a housing crisis like ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Meighen McCrae, Associate Professor of Strategic & Defence Studies, Australian National University American and Australian stretcher bearers working together near the front line during the Battle of Hamel in 1918.Australian War Memorial While the AUKUS alliance is new, the Australian-American partnership ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tracey Holmes, Professorial Fellow in Sport, University of Canberra When the news broke last weekend that 23 Chinese swimmers had tested positive to a banned drug in early 2021 and were allowed to compete at the Tokyo Olympic Games six months later ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Cally Jetta, Senior Lecturer and Academic Lead; College for First Nations, University of Southern Queensland Australian War MemorialAboriginal and Torres Strait Islander readers are advised this article contains names and images of deceased people, as well as sensitive historical information ...
RNZ News Melissa Lee has been ousted from New Zealand’s coalition cabinet and stripped of the Media portfolio, and Penny Simmonds has lost the Disability Issues portfolio in a reshuffle. Climate Change and Revenue Minister Simon Watts will take Lee’s spot in cabinet. Simmonds was a minister outside of cabinet. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Lindenmayer, Professor, Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University laurello/Shutterstock Some reports and popular books, such as Bill Gammage’s Biggest Estate on Earth, have argued that extensive areas of Australia’s forests were kept open through frequent burning by ...
Analysis - Christopher Luxon framing the demotion of two ministers as the portfolios getting "too complex" is a charitable way of saying they weren't up to the job. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra With Jim Chalmers’s third budget on May 14, Australians will be looking for some more cost-of-living relief – beyond the tax cuts – although they have been warned extra measures will be modest. As ...
Analysis: Melissa Lee has lost the media portfolio and her spot in Cabinet after multiple failed attempts to find solutions for a media industry in crisis. On Wednesday, the Prime Minister announced Lee would be losing her spot in Cabinet along with her media and communications ministerial portfolio. The job ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Simon Wilmot, Senior Lecturer, Film, Deakin University Among the many Australian who served during the second world war, there is a small group of people whose stories remain largely untold. These are the Muslim men and women who, while small in number, ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kelly Saunders, PhD Candidate, University of Canberra There has been much analysis and praise of Justice Michael Lee’s recent judgement in Bruce Lehrmann’s defamation case against Channel Ten. Many people were openly relieved to read Lee’s “forensic” and “nuanced” application of law ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kathy Gibbs, Program Director for the Bachelor of Education, Griffith University zEdward_Indy/Shutterstock Around one in 20 people has attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). It’s one of the most common neurodevelopmental disorders in childhood and often continues into adulthood. ADHD is diagnosed ...
The Fairer Future coalition of anti-poverty groups say Whaikaha must be properly funded going forward, and that to argue that poor financial management of the new Ministry is a red herring by the Prime Minister. ...
The Taxpayers’ Union is today congratulating Hon. Paul Goldsmith on his appointment as Minister for Media and Communications and urges him to rule out state intervention in the private media sector. ...
Asia Pacific Report The West Papuan resistance OPM leader has condemned Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and US President Joe Biden, accusing their countries of “six decades of treachery” over Papuan independence. The open letter was released today by OPM chairman Jeffrey P Bomanak on the eve of ANZAC Day ...
Welcome to The Spinoff Books Confessional, in which we get to know the reading habits and quirks of New Zealanders at large. This week: writer and one of Time Magazine’s 100 most influential people of 2024, Lauren Groff.The book I wish I’d writtenIf I wish I’d written a ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Fechner, Research Fellow, Social Marketing, Griffith University mavo/Shutterstock Imagine having dinner at a restaurant. The menu offers plant-based meat alternatives made mostly from vegetables, mushrooms, legumes and wheat that mimic meat in taste, texture and smell. Despite being given that ...
“Three Strikes is a dead-end policy proposed by a dead-end government. The Three Strikes law ignores the causes of crime, instead just brutalising people already crushed by the cost of living.” ...
By Don Wiseman, RNZ Pacific senior journalist An Australian-born judge in Kiribati could well face deportation later this week after a tribunal ruling that he should be removed from his post. The tribunal’s report has just been tabled in the Kiribati Parliament and is due to be debated by MPs ...
With its clear mandate for police use, political nuances, and nuanced public trust, Denmark's insights provide valuable considerations for Australia and New Zealand. ...
Books editor Claire Mabey reviews poet Louise Wallace’s debut novel. A famous poet once said to me that he’s always suspicious when a poet publishes a novel. I never really understood why but maybe it’s something to do with cheating on your first form. Louise Wallace is a poet. She’s ...
For a few months at the turn of the millennium, TrueBliss burned bright as the biggest pop stars in the country. Alex Casey chats to two superfans who still hold the flame. During a humble backyard wedding in Nelson, 1999, one of the cordially invited guests had to excuse themselves ...
How will the recent wave of job cuts impact ethnic diversity in the media? In November last year, I was working a very busy day in the newsroom of a large online news site, interviewing whānau about their concerns over the imminent closure of one of the few puna reo ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ruth Knight, Researcher, Queensland University of Technology Have you ever felt sick at work? Perhaps you had food poisoning or the flu. Your belly hurt, or you felt tired, making it hard to concentrate and be productive. How likely would you be ...
Despite heavy criticism and an ongoing select committee process, the Police Minister says the Government will forge ahead with a ban on gang patches. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sam Whiting, Lecturer – Creative Industries, University of South Australia Shutterstock Everyone has a favourite band, or a favourite composer, or a favourite song. There is some music which speaks to you, deeply; and other music which might be the current ...
A new survey says ‘outlook not great’ for those charged with building infrastructure, while RMA changes delight farmers and depress environmentalists, writes Anna Rawhiti-Connell in this excerpt from The Bulletin, The Spinoff’s morning news round-up. To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign up here. First RMA changes announced ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Olli Hellmann, Associate Professor of Political Science, University of Waikato Getty Images When New Zealanders commemorate Anzac Day on April 25, it’s not only to honour the soldiers who lost their lives in World War I and subsequent conflicts, but also ...
A leaked document shows the Canterbury/Waitaha arm of health agency Te Whatu Ora is scurrying to save $13.3 million by July. The “financial sustainability target”, which was “allocated” to Waitaha, is consistent with what’s happening in other districts, says Sarah Dalton, executive director of the Association of Salaried Medical Specialists. ...
A look at the state of the previous government’s affordable housing scheme, and what could come next.Remind me: What’s KiwiBuild again?First announced in 2012, KiwiBuild was a flagship policy of the Labour Party heading into both its 2014 and 2017 election campaigns. With Jacinda Ardern as prime minister, ...
Labour in opposition will be shocked to learn which party had six years in power but squandered any chance to make real change. Grant Robertson’s valedictory speech was a predictably entertaining trip down memory lane. The acid-tongued incoming Otago University chancellor administered a sick burn to the coalition government. He ...
The following interview with former Green Party MP Sue Kedgley came about because she features in the new memoir Hine Toa by activist Ngāhuia te Awekōtuku; the two knew each other at the University of Auckland in the early 70s, when they were both took on leadership roles in the ...
Taiwan’s semiconductor industry is seen some as its ‘silicon shield’ against invasion – but how will overseas expansion affect that protection? The post The state of Taiwan’s silicon shield appeared first on Newsroom. ...
There’s relief for building owners bending under the weight of earthquake strengthening rules – and costs – that came into force seven years ago. Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk has announced a scheduled 2027 review of the earthquake-prone building regulations will now start this year. Owners will also get ...
Opinion: It has been announced that nine percent of roles at Oranga Tamariki will be disestablished, presumably to help fund the tax cuts promised by the coalition Government. I am reminded of the graphics used to illustrate pandemic events, where five thousand people are standing in a field and then ...
After more than two sleepless days, running through savage terrain, Greig Hamilton didn’t know if he was going to finish one of the most gruelling psychological assaults in sport. He was metres away from the finish line, a yellow gate made famous in a Netflix documentary; a race he’d dreamed ...
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COMMENTARY:By Murray Horton New Zealand needs to get tough with Israel. It’s not as if we haven’t done so before. When NZ authorities busted a Mossad operation in Auckland 20 years ago, the government didn’t say: “Oh well, Israel has the right to defend itself.” No, it arrested, prosecuted, ...
NEWSMAKERS:By Vijay Narayan, news director of FijiVillage Blessed to be part of the University of Fiji (UniFiji) faculty to continue to teach and mentor those who want to join our noble profession, and to stand for truth and justice for the people of the country. I was privileged to ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Martin, Visiting Fellow, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University Three weeks from now, some of us will be presented with a mountain of budget papers, and just about all of us will get to hear about them on radio, ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Dan Lowry, Ice Sheet & Climate Modeller, GNS Science Hugh Chittock/Antarctica New Zealand, CC BY-SA As the climate warms and Antarctica’s glaciers and ice sheets melt, the resulting rise in sea level has the potential to displace hundreds of millions of ...
Radio NZ hack claims National’s dirty politics scandal merely a “beltway” issue.
Are Michelle Boag and Matthew Hooton writing their scripts now?
Radio NZ National Checkpoint, Wednesday 29 July 2015
Conservative Party founder and (until recently) leader Colin Craig has announced he is suing extreme right wing National Party blogger Cameron “Whaleoil” Slater for the campaign of lies and intimidation the fat man has been running against him for months. This cynical assault on our democracy was exhaustively laid out last year by Nicky Hager in his book Dirty Politics.
However, according to Radio NZ National’s Liz Banas, whether or not this brutal National Party operative is lying is nothing more than a “hard core beltway” issue. She tried unsuccessfully to upset Craig by firing that statement at him several times tonight….
COLIN CRAIG: …. Holding these guys to account is the right thing.
LIZ BANAS: But you’ve put things in this brochure that the public don’t even know about and probably much less care about.
COLIN CRAIG: Well I think it DOES matter to the New Zealand public that we have politics that is free from this sort of agenda that the Dirty Politics brigade run.
LIZ BANAS: Well I think you’ll see from the election result that people didn’t really take too much notice of the Dirty Politics when it came to voting.
COLIN CRAIG: I think it does matter the sort of country that we have, and the way that we run it. I think it does matter what the agenda of people is. It is our law in this land that you are not allowed to go out and defame public persons, for very good reasons. And I think that this is NOT a core value for New Zealanders, this sort of attack. We are honest people, we like a fair game and we like people to play within the rules. Good debate is good, a bit of argy-bargy is good, but having biased referees, or one team cheating, taking out an opposing player with a foul, that’s not the way we are.
LIZ BANAS: But it’s seriously beltway. I mean, a lot of these allegations people wouldn’t have any idea about. It’s hard core beltway.This is just for the people who are really involved in politics will be talking about this. As far as they’re concerned, you lost the election, you’ve admitted to inappropriate behavior with Miss McGregor, your party has imploded, and a lot of people would regard you as finished, politically.
COLIN CRAIG: Well, I think Liz you’ve said an awful lot there, but the reality is that this is a public issue. People DO know all about this, they DO want to know the truth of it, going to the court and having the court rule on whether these guys are telling the truth or whether I’m telling the truth DOES matter. That’s what political credibility is about, who’s telling the truth? Am I honest, or are they honest? We can’t both be right, the public do need to know.
LIZ BANAS: Do you worry that people see you as a laughing stock?
COLIN CRAIG: Oh I don’t worry about that at all. I stand for issues, I am who I am, and I’m very comfortable that this is the right approach to take with these guys who have been campaigning against me for week after week after week. I mean, it’s unheard of. This is unprecedented, there isn’t this sort of attack that’s gone on before. It’s serious stuff, and the court will rule whether or not I’ve been telling the truth. That matters to people. ….
………
POINT TO PONDER: It’s not as if there was a more competent and serious journalist on hand to make up for her shoddiness. Thanks to the recent purges at Radio NZ National, her partner was… Jim Mora.
Well RNZ now invite Jordan Williams, Michelle Boag and Matthew Hooton as regular visitors.
They are rapidly becoming another worthless news source.
RNZ is heads and shoulders above any of the other News outlets. I do believe Jim Mora is on borrowed time holding down the late afternoon slot.
The Monday morning political show with Hooton & Williams I personally find quite insightful and is a good summary on current political issues. Plunket’s Friday show with National cyborg Boag and Williams is equally as good, recently Sean gave the cyborg a real decent crack over the non Govt foreigner’s register, it was classic.
CyBoag! Heh!
I’m not sure whether I entirely agree with this. I certainly do think that there is a disparity between the easy ride that government MPs (especially Mr. Key) get in the face of obviously and woefully inadequate statements in interviews on the one hand, and the belligerent but content-lite attack interviews on successive labour and green leaders. However, I also think that it is an interviewer’s job to challenge the motives and framing of any and all politicians that they interview, and try as I might, I can’t see any more in the above than that. Her framing could be more informed/informative, but I think the basic line of questioning is appropriate and gives him ample scope to respond.
Craig is being challenged to explain why his legal and PR campaign is a public interest issue, rather than a personal vendetta that serves nothing but his own satisfaction. Assuming that his info and claims are true, then it is in the public interest, but it’s still up to him to state his case and show the public why it’s important. Interviews like that facilitate that best, because the members public can hear many competing aspects of the argument and make up their own minds. I don’t wish people would stop interviewing Craig like that, I wish they would do more in that vein to Mr. Key.
@ Hanswurst Good objectivity from over there, good to have.
I guess it comes down to whether you think “PR” stands for “Personal Rachel”, or “Public Relations”……..
I thought the latter- ergo its a Public issue.
I think that using ‘beltway’ repeatedly immediately makes that person more beltway than anything they’re talking about or anyone they’re talking to.
That is a very good point. I have never heard a non-“beltway” person say “beltway”.
@Morrisey
I heard Liz Banas name mentioned the other morning when I expected to hear Susie’s and I looked up but could find no Liz Banash in presenters.
Are you saying that Jim Mora is on early morning instead of Guyon. Do you know about changes? Holiday breaks? I looked up google for –
radionz management advice on personnel changes
and found nothing except headings about news not about the entity.
“No no no…. I understand that…. all right….okay…”
British state television frontwoman comes horribly unstuck on HARDtalk
Poor old Mishal Husain had her lines carefully written out—including such gems as calling a Financial Times hatchet job a “well considered piece”—but she simply lacked the intellect to counter Stathis Kouvelakis. What followed was one of the most complete humiliations of a BBC hack since Tim Sebastian’s 1993 trauma at the hands of Lee Kuan Yew.
Enjoy….
HARDtalk Stathis Kouvelakis
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UZ3Keu7BoeY#t=246
It’s great the way you expose the media, Morrissey.
Some people seem unaware of how dumbed down the media has become.
For example, today, while Grosser and his Randite minions are trading away NZ’ s sovereignty in Hawaii, our miserable media has barely a word to say in this act of treason.
As biased as the media are, the Labour “opposition” is also failing us. Can you imagine the non-stop, hour by hour furore that would have ensued if it were a LABOUR government in Hawaii negotiating away our right to Pharmac?
Instead, the Labour Party leader talks about how he doesn’t like our national anthem.
By the way, the nasty, dim BBC hackette dying so horribly in that HARDtalk interview was Zeina Badawi, not Mishal Husain.
Darn it, Morrissey. Andrew Little has spoken out against TPPA several times lately.
The piece about the national anthem was picked out by the MSM of a speech he was giving in Parliament about the flag debate and used to trivialise whatever he was saying then. You of all people should know how easily the MSM trivialise whatever Labour says to keep attention away from the important stuff they say!
Go Jenny
Thanks for that Jenny. We shouldn’t chop Labour down to miniscule over MSM misrepresentation. It’s good to be put right otherwise we don’t hear the truth only the manufactured litany of lies from the ba….s.
I noticed Toby Manhire and Sean Plunket yesterday getting affronted on Key’s behalf because Groser got testy with Key. The Notionals seem to have made ‘friends’ with many jonolists who are willing to write about Gullible’s Travels!
Peons of praise?
edited
Fair comment, Jenny. I have no doubt that Gower and his friends have utterly distorted what he said—and I was foolish enough to amplify it here. I am, however, not convinced that Labour has a coherent policy on this vital issue. If National was in Opposition, and it was a Labour government pushing this profoundly anti-democratic measure, all the media would be saturated with the message that Labour was selling out our public health system.
I’m also still trying to come to terms with the way Little and his colleagues meekly supported the Government’s snooping legislation a few months ago.
By the way, may I say what a privilege it is to be handed a whupping from someone with such a distinguished Labour name.
absolutely NO relation to the distinguished Labour name, Morrissey – sheer coincidence – thanks all the same.
Try reading Scoop NZ News, Paul. There’s a very long piece by Gordon Campbell about TPP.
@Morrissey
That is not Mishal Husain doing the interview. She is (from memory) Cambridge educated and very smart. Works on Radio 4 Today programme now.
Once was the standard bearer for intellectual rigour and objectivity and under fresh threat from DC and his backers like Wuppert etc
Paid actor, presenter gets arse handed ….
MP’s are paid actors too and in NZ we have Z list actors
That includes the NZLP
WikiLeaks
WikiLeaks TPP Expert Analysis on SOE Ministerial Guidance
https://wikileaks.org/tpp-soe-minister/analysis/page-1.html
Pages 9 and 10 list the questions that need to be answered.
“Secret Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) Treaty: State-Owned Enterprises (SOE) Issues for Ministerial Guidance”
https://wikileaks.org/tpp-soe-minister/
WikiLeaks on Twitter: “ANNOUNCE: A new secret #TPP leak …
https://twitter.com/wikileaks/status/626457709471211521
41 secs ago – WikiLeaksVerified account … ANNOUNCE: A new secret #TPP leak within the hour. …. @wikileaks @Ladydus Greatest robbery/corruption of all times by …
“Secret Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) Treaty: State-Owned Enterprises (SOE) Issues for Ministerial Guidance”
https://wikileaks.org/tpp-soe-minister/
WikiLeaks on Twitter: “ANNOUNCE: A new secret #TPP leak …
https://twitter.com/wikileaks/status/626457709471211521
41 secs ago – WikiLeaksVerified account … ANNOUNCE: A new secret #TPP leak within the hour. …. @wikileaks @Ladydus Greatest robbery/corruption of all times by …
from Australia
“TPP negotiations threaten to forcibly commercialise state-owned bodies
PHILIP DORLING
The ABC, SBS and Australia Post could lose special regulatory treatment under trade measures being pushed for by the US.
Leaked details of the controversial Trans-Pacific Partnership trade negotiations, published today by WikiLeaks, reveal that the futures of publicly owned enterprises such as Australia Post, the ABC, SBS and state power utilities may be on the negotiating table in secret talks under way in Hawaii this week.”
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2015/07/30/tpp-negotiations-threaten-forcibly-commercialise-state-owned-bodies
Thank you minister tolley
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/70647353/Children-not-lab-rats-Anne-Tolley-intervenes-in-child-abuse-experiment
Seriously wtf??? – check whether the predictions came true??? What is wrong with our society???
Wow…just wow
These kinds of controlled experiments raise ethical issues all the time. For instance trials of new experimental drugs – there is always a control group who don’t get the potentially life-saving treatment.
Or you could argue that now this study has been squashed – that NO children will potentially benefit from it now. Sort of like tossing all the lab rats in the bin.
I think this is different – not intervening in high risk cases to check the model is completely unacceptable, morally and in every other way.
The example used above of experimental drugs is not equivalent imo and therefore not a good counter example.
Sighs – the equivalence is actually pretty good.
All we have is a possible model of which children may or may not be at risk. This is the direct equivalent of a medical diagnostic tool – but until it is tested we have no evidence of whether it is going to work well enough or not.
If the researchers simply developed an untested social diagnostic tool to predict which children were at risk – and then applied it as an en-mass intervention on the whole population what do you imagine might happen?
For a start – how would you deal with all the false positive cases?
“If the researchers simply developed an untested social diagnostic tool to predict which children were at risk – and then applied it as an en-mass intervention on the whole population what do you imagine might happen?”
Isn’t this precisely the reason that new interventions usually are trialed on small control groups under informed consent before introducing them to the general public or larger group concerned?
But almost all interventions have negative as well as positive effects, so applying them to people who don’t need them leaves the negative for no actual positive – i.e. they can actually do harm.
I’m in favour of seeing if it works before leaping to conclusions about every kid in the country.
Which is pretty much what was planned. The target study group was going to be one cohort of 60,000 children born in one year, and thereby large enough to give a statistically confident result.
And therefore we can never do any studies, of any kind, with children because we cannot ever get ‘informed consent’ from them? That’s another kind of nonsense.
This was only ever a passive ‘observational study’. Whether it proceeded or not – the lives of the participants would be exactly the same. So precisely what are you asking ‘informed consent’ for?
Besides there is the practical question of the study needing to be of a significant minimum size in order to obtain a results with acceptable statistical confidence.
My understanding is that they didn’t want to intervene in high risk cases so they could ascertain whether their predictions were correct.
They didn’t want to intervene in cases identified as “high risk” by the untested predictive model.
That doesn’t preclude normal intervention when/if current systems come to the same conclusion – indeed, that would be one of the measurements involved in the assessment of the accuracy of the new model.
My understanding is that medical and drug trials should always be done with informed consent. Was this the case with the MSD proposal?
Yep, whoever dreamed that scheme up in the public service needs to be shown the door – it is way off the planet
Its like replacing the crash-test dummies in simulated vehicle crashes with real people.
absolutely unbelievable.
Unless you can show that these researchers had access to an equivalent ‘crash test dummy’ model that would give equivalent results in this space – I don’t think that comparison works vto.
Eh? Too technical redlogix…
These ‘researchers’ were prepared to let people seriously damage their lives in order to observe that damage…. that is fucked in the head and smells of the third re1ch…
I can understand if the effect on natural people is minor and negligible, and repairs itself like a scratch with a band-aid, but not this shit. Its over the top by a country mile.
+1. Not least because there are any number of measures that can be implemented to improve people’s lives without having to inflict that sort of harm upon anybody.
The study has been shut down and the harm will continue regardless. You seem to have cause and effect arse about face here.
RL the study design could have been done differently to address the ethical concerns raised. For instance, a higher level of monitoring of the “high risk” group, with protocols for intervention in any instances where children were detected to be actually mistreated (whatever group they were from).
Remember that one of the issues with the “Unfortunate Experiment” were healthcare professionals who were aware that certain research subjects were at higher risk of developing cancer – but then doing nothing about it.
Again the ‘Unfortunate Experiment’ example is not so clear cut as you would like to think.
The original experiment design made reasonable sense in the light of the knowledge of the day. There were many aspects of this cancer not at all well understood at the time.
Like much medical research it made an easy target with the benefit of hindsight – and definitely Green should have been more pro-active about managing the arising cases of cervical cancer that did arise. But the issues were nowhere near as black and white as the popular outrage of the day.
Not according to Cartwright. Your interpretation is itself revisionist and made with the benefit of many years hindsight. Greens “experiment” was very definitely ethically questionable at the very least and bears remarkable similarities to MSD’s proposed study. Some people are slow learners.
And everyone also ignored the fact that Herb Green designed his study in the mid-60’s – and it was considered acceptable in the light of the thinking of the day. It’s completely and utterly wrong to condemn a man for actions taken in ignorance of knowledge yet to be discovered.
There was by the 1980s an extensive international literature questioning whether early intervention was necessary or was over-treatment, causing more harm than good.
Medicine faces a especial challenge in that the public find it very difficult to separate out the role of a researchers who have a role of studying illness – and that of clinicians whose role is to treat it. And back in the 60’s that distinction was virtually non-existent; it was absolutely common-place for clinicians like Green to also be researchers.
But that is not the case with this proposed social study at all.
It’s been a while since I read the book, but from what I remember this is not true.
It was against current thinking at the time. The ethical and management teams of National Women’s were not robust enough to challenge Green, and efforts by McIndoe to ensure care was given, and standards were upheld were constantly overridden.
As a female child born in that hospital at the time, I may have been one of those female newborns that were given a smear test – without knowledge of my mother – and without any particular research benefit. The practice continued for two years after Green decided the results coming from newborns were not supporting his theory.
The continual recall of women identified for “non-treatment” and observation was appalling. And they would have been under the mistaken idea that they were receiving timely and appropriate treatment.
I fail to see how you given Green such credit.
Most of the problems arose because by force of circumstance Green was forced into the role of both researcher and clinician. These days the roles are usually quite separate which makes these kinds of ethical issues much easier to manage.
Actually Green’s thinking turned out to be correct – that early hysterectomies and large cone biopsies which often prevented women from conceiving again were usually unnecessary; a conclusion that current practise endorses.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herb_Green
Worth a read. I accept that by current modern standards there are things he should have done better, but ultimately there is a lot more to the story than the narrow conclusions Cartwright came to. Incidentally I was delivered by Herb Green. I was a very late term baby and he saved my life. So maybe I’m biased.
And as it happened my family knew MacIndoe as well. They were all good people just doing the best they could with the understandings they possessed at the time.
Ahhh thanks for the context RL.
Well, it seems that the entire predictive modelling has now been canned which, of course, means that those children who are at high risk of being abused will now most likely be abused and CYF won’t actually know about them.
Thanks idiots.
Gawd i wish the left was a bit more far-sighted.
What do you think a future Tory government might do with a tool that is proven to demonstrate that certain parents or classes of parents are more likely to be child abusers? Or if such a database listing those parents and families was leaked?
So far everyone is calling foul because we might have a predictive tool to prevent abuse – and this proposed study was not going to intervene.
Now you are calling foul because it might be used to intervene.
Damned if we do and damned if we don’t eh?
Exactly RL
The area is fraught with fishhooks which is why careful hands are needed and careful policy too.
well the tool is inevitably going to end up scientifically justifying the singling out of specific types of households and classes of people who have done no wrong (yet).
Under a responsible and enlightened regime, that might be tolerable, even useful.
I think this comment neatly highlights an important distinction between a predictive tool based on correlational datasets and a causal understanding (or scientific theory) of a phenomenon – i.e., exploration of a ‘real’ scientific theory as opposed to statistical modelling based upon empirical regularity.
Correlational ‘predictions’ are not based on causal understanding (i.e., causal scientific theories) but on statistical regularities (which are often developed into so-called ‘models’).
Importantly, in construction of such tools the statistics to which the tool’s builders will inevitably turn are the ones already being collected (and which were typically developed to serve other purposes).
And that’s where the danger of using a statistical predictive tool exists, in policy terms.
If the causal processes involved in generating abuse are not being used to guide policy then interventions are triggered based on statistical probabilities embedded in the ‘tool’.
Here’s a revealing example. Being a young Maori male (as opposed to being a non-Maori young male) is correlated with criminal offending (it helps explain some of the variance of criminal offending in the general population).
A predictive tool to identify those ‘at risk’ of criminal offending could be developed based on that statistic (which is already collected and available in many datasets).
In fact, that ‘tool’ has already been invented and is, of course, often called racial profiling.
The difference can be put in stark terms: being a young Maori male does not cause criminal offending but it does (statistically at the population level) predict it.
For those interested, this is all part of the esoteric debate between those known as ’empiricists’ and those known as ‘scientific realists’.
Interestingly, much standard economic modelling seems to be of this empiricist kind and tends to eschew realist scientific theorising (i.e., production of theories that postulate hidden, generative causal mechanisms – e.g., such as William Harvey’s theory of the circulation of blood through veins and arteries).
An unfortunate consequence of that – given the leverage economists often have in the policy space – is that the public, and presumably many politicians, often interpret these economic ‘theories’ – i.e., statistical and mathematical models – as causal scientific theories.
But they aren’t. (Folk theories – appealing to ‘common sense’ – are sometimes used to provide the de facto causal explanation in support of the predictions of the modelling.)
That misunderstanding I think helps create all kinds of dangerous ‘unintended consequences’ in the social policy space – e.g., beneficiary bashing, retributive impulses towards those who commit crimes, anti-Maori racism, etc..
Fortunately there are growing areas such as behavioural economics, evolutionary economics and neuroeconomics that are trying to introduce ‘proper’ scientific theorising into economics.
For too long, economics, it seems, has relied upon Smith’s postulates about human nature as the only realist bit of theorising in the discipline.
Much science has been done on the general topic of ‘human nature’ since Smith’s time.
Until recently, that science seems to have passed economics by.
I agree entirely Puddleglum.
In fact IMO it’s one of the reasons that economics so far has been more religion than its acolytes’ pseudoscientific pretensions would have is believe.
If you went to the doctor with an ache and the doctor made a diagnosis solely on how your stats matched epidemiological data, your doctor should be done for malpractise.
It doesn’t work in medicine, it doesn’t work in economics, and it won’t work in social work.
Indeed. To use the crash test dummy analogy:
It’s like putting real people in a test car and sending it into a crash wall at 130kph, knowing full well the impact will kill them (ignoring earlier research), and purposely neglecting to first reduce the speed to a level that will not kill, but just give them a headache.
But why you’d do it that way – even try to give them a headache – just exposes 1) total lack of ethics in aims (and lack of education or skill in research techniques) , 2) psychopathy 3) really really poor science 4) being told to do it that way by your employers/funders/Minister.
Tolley must go, so must the so-called officals. They were her people. In fact, the whole fucking lot have to go, which makes the argument kind of pointless. Get rid of these psychos – problem solved.
Again cause and effect being horribly muddled.
It’s not the researchers putting these kids at risk. They are ALREADY strapped into the seat of life – and some of them are ALREADY hurtling towards the crash wall.
We are just not sure which ones.
But how is NOT observing these children going to make anything better either?
It’s not as is the researchers were proposing to actively intervene in their lives in order to set them up for abuse and crime. It really amounts to exactly the same thing as any other major longitudinal study – but with some predictions thrown in to test some ideas.
Social science is full of these issues because you really have no alternative but to conduct your research on real people – and the more serious the problem being studied – the more difficult these ethical issues become. That is why these supervisory committees exist.
But in each case you have to also include the impact of NOT doing the study as well.
Some screwed up negative backwards type statement/questions in there methinks RL, in particular first and last sentences.
Then there is this
“It’s not as is the researchers were proposing to actively intervene in their lives in order to set them up for abuse and crime.” ……….. Yes they were, from what I can see. They were going to actively intervene by way of active non-intervention
Sounds like you are familiar with these things, but I would suggest that if this sphere of study has got to this point then it has gone way too far down the rabbit hole and needs hauling out by the bunny tail for a severe telling-off
Yes they were, from what I can see. They were going to actively intervene by way of active non-intervention
And NOT doing this kind of study is a massive non-intervention as well. You just cannot have it both ways. This is exactly the same as many other hugely valuable research projects such as:
http://dunedinstudy.otago.ac.nz/
It’s been running over 40 years – and almost certainly it has included individuals who’ve been victims of harm, abuse and crime. Want to shut that one down as well?
Quite a different thing as there was no attempt at predicting outcomes before the study started and then standing back to see if it actually occurred. Taking a slice of the general population and following their lives (including presumably State interventions) is not the same. Can I draw your attention again to the Cartwright enquiry into the “unfortunate experiment ” which is a much closer analogue to this proposed study by MSD.
Now you are doing the pin dance.
From the perspective of the participants the effect of the study, whether it is passively observational only like the famous Dunedin study – or this new one where the researchers were also attempting to use the data to validate a proposed predictive model – is exactly the same.
The ethics of such studies is based only partly on the effect on the subjects. It is also based on the state of knowledge of the researchers. Do they know or suspect that an UNINFORMED control group are at risk without intervention yet CHOOSE not to warn or inform or intervene.
Again, this is why the MSD proposal bears striking similarities to Green’s study.
Do they know or suspect that an UNINFORMED control group are at risk without intervention yet CHOOSE not to warn or inform or intervene.
They have a proposed diagnostic model, but until they have tested it against real life they cannot use it in the manner you suggest.
It may for instance throw up a rate of false positives or negatives which render it impractical to use.
“They have a proposed diagnostic model, but until they have tested it against real life they cannot use it in the manner you suggest.
It may for instance throw up a rate of false positives or negatives which render it impractical to use.”
Which is precisely the rationale used by Green to justify his study and which the Cartwright Inquiry found to be ethically unacceptable.
But Cartwright had the benefit of hindsight – by 1987 it was known that early medical intervention was indeed the right thing to do. But when Green started the study in the 1960’s no-one knew that for certain.
Again I ask the question – what if it had not been the case? What if Green (and others) had not done the research and it turned out that early intervention had killed many women instead?
What Green did miss out was the ‘informed consent’ part. But again this was a consideration made in hindsight – in the 1960’s this was not thought of as so important. Indeed given the role of the placebo effect it was considered a simple way to ‘blind’ the study.
I think that’s misleading Red. I don’t know about 1960, but in later decades what Green was doing was unethical by contemporary practice at the time. It wasn’t the benefit of hindsight, it was the women at the time (patients, staff, feminist activists), who called the medical staff and the hospital on the practice and a stop was put to it.
That in the 1980s it was still very hard work to break the doctor is god ethos simply reflects that the culture was unethical too. But it’s not like the ethics hadn’t been discussed before that time. People didn’t suddenly have an ephiphany in 1987 about what was right and proper, people knew for a very long time, that’s the whole point, and that’s why we’ve had subsequent processes in NZ like the development of the Health and Disability Act.
http://www.medicolegal.co.nz/Journal/Bryder.pdf
I think you’re missing the point..
“It’s been running over 40 years – and almost certainly it has included individuals who’ve been victims of harm, abuse and crime. Want to shut that one down as well?”
If a researcher on this one see one of the subjects about to harm themselves and the researcher does nothing about it then absolutely yes it needs to be amended.
I think you can’t see the wood for the trees RL
That isn’t how these studies work.
The researchers are not hovering 24/7 over the shoulders of anyone. If something bad happens to one of the people participating the researcher usually only finds out about it well after the event.
They simply are not in the business of intervening – that’s the role of other institutions like the Police.
Yes and that is why I used the word ‘if’.
The point is that they are using existing diagnostic tools to predict in advance that a certain very vulnerable group is at risk and then proposing to take a “watch from afar” role in order to see whether the predicted harm comes to pass.
This is what makes this case so similar to Green’s experiment at National womens. He actually suspected that intervention was the way to go, but didn’t intervene and watched the cancer develop in order to develop data to support his case for intervention. (From Memory).
So Green’s alternative was to never do the research and hope that early intervention was the correct model. As it happened it was.
But what if it had not been?
Green had plenty of ethical alternatives. For instance, he could have told affected women that their case had reached an early cancer stage and would they like to exit the study and get treatment.
By doing so he could have avoided accusations that he was playing God with other peoples lives.
CV
I’m glad to see you put it so clearly. There was an alternative, which would have allowed his study to run with useful findings and you have explained it.
The medical profession is strong on trust being important which comes up often when a desire for ethanasia to be legal comes up. But they will countenance some dodgy practices from within their own.
Green’s experiment would have caused a massive lack of trust in doctors when family concerned found that Green had allowed the cervical cancer to advance too far for healing treatment. Particularly among the people who had to arrange to go with Mum or daughter from the regions to the clinic in the city many times, at their own cost I should think, but always disruptive of family life and trusting him to care for her and advise the true situation, and ask for permission to delay treatment and explain outcome which was not done properly.
Details:
http://www.cartwrightinquiry.com/
did any of these children volunteer to be part of the study group?
that is your difference to your group trying experimental medicine. The guys that are dying of cancer might volunteer for a new drug to be tested for a. a cure that will heal them, or b. a cure that may heal those that get ill long after the study subjects have died.
However, the babies/newborn/little children in this ‘study group’ would most likely not have volunteered or consented to this study. And as far as i am concerned if we know that a child is in danger of abuse we have a duty to call CYF or the police.
So again….?
No-one volunteers for abuse or illness either.
And as far as i am concerned if we know that a child is in danger of abuse we have a duty to call CYF or the police.
And at no point would have this study stopped these normal processes. No-one was proposing that the researchers just let it keep on happening for the jollies of it.
All it was attempting to do was predict the risk of abuse – and no-one can act to prevent this before it happens.
The briefing note the Minister got clearly said that follow up would be at 2 years, to see if predicted negative outcomes had in fact occurred.
But this is different to not letting CYF intervene if abuse is detected through the normal methods, e.g. a teacher reports it.
Folk are acting like the study was designed to look at the kid’s factors at birth, then refuse to provide any social service or government interaction for two years, upon which time they just count how many of the kids are dead.
As it is, the lack of assessment could simply result in a number of kids being labelled “at high risk” when they’re not, wasting resources and at worst resulting in needless prosecution (false positive “high risk” kid breaks arm as simple accident, and the risk rating makes people more suspicious of abuse which changes their enforcement bias) while genuinely at risk kids are ignored.
“Folk are acting like the study was designed to look at the kid’s factors at birth, then refuse to provide any social service or government interaction for two years, upon which time they just count how many of the kids are dead.”
Can you read it another way? Graphic language aside that is a good summing up imo.
Yes.
The predictive model is untested and possibly either not sensitive enough (so it doesn’t actually help in the prevention/detection of harm) or not specific enough (so resources are rationed from those in greater need to those in little to no need), so making intervention decisions based on that model is not just unwise but could possibly do more harm than good.
So no interventions should be made based on that model until its reliability as a screening tool is known.
Interventions based on all the systems currently in use would still be made, and where the model predicted those interventions, that’s good for the model, where the model did not predict those interventions, that’s bad, and where the model predicted interventions were required when they were not, that’s also bad.
Thank you that clears it up.
well – that’s how I’d do it.
There are real concerns with using macro data to make predictions about specific individuals, though, simply because the closer you look based on assumptions the more likely you are (and the more inclined you are) to find something, so it reinforces one’s prejudices rather than being a genuine tool.
That’s essentially the problem with racial profiling by police.
I tend to follow the philosophy that macro data can make extrapolated predictions at a population level, but you need direct case data to draw conclusions about individuals. But then this predictive model comes along so if a case worker makes a judgement based on the facts of the case they might have to second-guess the model. But if they do that, it’s on their head if they’re wrong, but if they just say “computer says abuse” their arse is covered.
I guess my issue is with the concept of the model itself and what it will be used for, rather than the testing proposal.
Yes the racial profiling is an issue and they can’t seem to help themselves in doing it.
“An unfortunate experiment”?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cartwright_Inquiry
Except there needs to be some check that Tolley’s “interventions” don’t do more harm than they prevent. Given how intrusive this kind of monitoring of people who have committed no crime is, and the profiling involved, some checks do need to be done.
From what I understand, these families are going to be treated as criminals rather than given extra support and resources. It would be better to provide families with what they need, but this is not the ‘treatment’ that these families in the control group are missing out on, nor is it the default for vulnerable families or people in need generally.
If Anne Tolley stops anything on the basis of it being wrong I wonder what’s the real reason.
I thought the predictive model was to identify the most at risk of family violence or distress, and ensure that the family concerned had assistance through the difficult years. Presumably that could involve learning better parenting methods, and coping strategies.
But needed is understanding that concomitantly a lot of the problem arises from chronic poverty and people’s necessary accommodation to the way of life that brings. The money worries, regular shortages or absence of comfort and meeting of needs with no hope for better conditions would remain as the elephant in the room. That would not have been helped by this callous, irresponsible government system at presently operating.
Watching to see if the predictive model was effective did not have to mean, not doing anything. The government welfare arm is not a nature photographer or researcher recording nature unrestrained. Just watching and stepping in when needed, supporting and helping to a certain extent, then stepping out and monitoring the effectiveness of that help, would have been enough to provide results for assessment without the strict extreme required for academically rigorous proof.
That would have shown an honest willingness on the part of government and Tolley but from her past history, it has been observed that she is not a person who wishes well to the strugglers of our country.
We have an aristocratic mutation grown in our society, which is more the meritocratic model. And these self-satisfied higher educated highly paid people regard themselves on the one hand as exceptional and deserving of high rewards, and on the other hand as models that anyone who wanted to achieve the same lifestyle, could follow if they tried and worked harder. Contradictory thinking.
Now we have the code of deserving and undeserving that goes right back to the cold charity, unwillingly ladelled out with many strictures, of the 19th century. How we have advanced! Not.
+1
Bloody well said.
“What is wrong with our society???”
The thing that bothers me is that this is now so deeply embedded in the civil service culture.
This one stood out:
“It attempts to predict abuse, welfare dependency and the likelihood of a child’s downward spiral into crime on the path to adulthood so it can better target spending.”
Why are they measuring is spending targeting rather than assitance targeting? They’re not the same thing, but I think it’s clear that it’s all about the money now.
Yep – all about the money. – better target spending ffs
It will be interesting to see this model with the indicators on it – I wonder what it says…
Do you have or have you had a parent or relative in Jail for any period of time?
Are you a person of colour or do you have a ‘Māori’ sounding name?
Do you know anyone that HASN’T been abused?…
What school did you go to?
How much money have you got?
Well if we want to target spending, ministerial expenses are out today.
Now maybe should we start profiling MP’s to see which ones will spend more time in the mini bar than others adding to the public health bill , which ones won’t find receipts or want to stay at only the best hotel which ones are going to have their kids brought up by the state after a broken marriage, add in a drug test or two so they don’t get paid until they are clean.
That way we could pick the one’s that don’t cost as much.
the thought that occurs is that, while I disagree with her decision, credit to Tolley for actually doing her job and making a decision based on an interpretation of what she actually read.
CF. the serco debacle where the information was handed on a plate and ignored until it hit the media.
FYI.
30 July 2015
Will PM John Key personally profit from the TPPA?
Where’s my OIA reply Trade Minister Tim Groser?
Dear Minister Tim Groser,
I STILL do not have a reply to this now overdue and VERY urgent OIA request.
[Penny, you have been asked not use cut and pastes. Just give a brief summary and a link. Last chance. TRP]
See original OIA here: http://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-28072015/#comment-1050873
We will all profit from the TPPA, Penny.
how?
it easy vto, just close your eyes, clear your mind, say it slower:
WE WILL ALL PROFIT FROM THE TPPA.
Silence thought. Thought is all in your mind.
The National Party have good intentions.
Anyone can see that. Anyone at all.
WE WILL ALL PROFIT.
The fool is referring to the 0.1% . All of the 0.1% will profit.
No we won’t. The majority of people will be worse off.
Major corporates and their shareholders will definitely benefit from the TPPA. That’s why they are the ones pushing hardest for it. And keeping it secret.
They’re keeping it secret because negotiating in public tends to make negotiation difficult. That is why they have all been done this way since the beginning of time. By everyone.
Last year, we made a billion and a half dollars from the China FTA. Tax on a billion and a half dollars is about $400m. We spent that on shit you guys like getting for free.
Oh really TGF? So how come the teams of all of the top corporations in the US have seen/influenced the documents?
1. Prove it
2. Show where the money went
3. Show how much China has extracted from and or will extract going forward. Oh and illustrate environmental damage and other societal mess left behind by the FTA
Quite comfortably you are one of a most puerile posters here which is saying something
Coming across as a fuck-wit comes exceedingly easily to you
Coming across as a fuck-wit comes exceedingly easily to you
Thanks, man. Coming from you, that means a lot.
” We spent that on shit you guys like getting for free.”
Really !!
And what shit was that then ?
Gormless doesn’t like education, healthcare, ACC or border controls, apparently.
Health. Education. Welfare.
What would you cut $400m off half crown?
Gormless wrote @12.31 pm 30.7.15
“What would you cut $400m off half crown?”
Try these for starters
Welfare for
Rio Tinto,
Warner Bros. I noticed Jackson is still on the rich list. Hasn’t he done well assisted by the tax payer
Sky City
Any sporting body who’s participants want to play at life i.e. America’s Cup. and once again hasn’t Couttss done well via the tax payer.
Pay down the massive debt (now at over a billion) created by that double dipping dickhead from Dipton giving tax breaks to the higher income earners who do not pay the same % of their income through tax avoidance.
Private schools, If these prats want to send their offspring to an elitist school to learn how to rule, don’t expect tax payers to subsidise it
Charter Schools, a dismal failure but still being bailed out by the tax payer.
Stupid referendum on the flag that nobody wants
Gold plated perks for ALL Members of Parliament for life.
Let’s start having a bit less of the corporate welfare, when the money should be allocated to other areas.
Nothing is free we all contribute with our taxes the only ones getting it free are the likes of Rio Tinto.
You wrote
“We spent that on shit you guys like getting for free. “
I see you have used the royal “we”. Who the fuck are the “we”? More to the point who the fuck are you? You are not another non society Randian brain dead fuckwit are you, who thinks that you have some god given right and privilege and first go over other people.
I am all for no corporate welfare.
“I am all for no corporate welfare.”
Well that’s good news, Thanks for that.
How will Labour reduce our reliance on the dairy sector without corporate welfare, I wonder?
But when all parties to the negotiation have seen the position documents – why would you not release the position documents to the people whose position is described ? Todd couldn’t quite deliver clarity on this,
On the face of it this TPP directive looks to put even the Superfund on the skids forcing it to be run by private operators taking a bigger cut and even EQC to give way to the big insurance companies.
The new age of serfdom is just around the corner.
+1
I missed this the other day and it was thrown back into my to view box on youtube I think after watching your video today Morrissey – So thanks. It raises some great points about the workings of propaganda in The USA. Which, I think we see here. I’m thinking the NBR or the herald are probably our equivalent.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ojpNKE5jGA
A post from David Hood over on Public Address is rather technical but also disturbing. It seems that billions of dollars are entering the housing market but it is not known from whence it comes. He calls it Magic Money.
He also looks at the flaw in the “supply side” claims.
David says “somethings up.” Indeed.
http://publicaddress.net/speaker/house-prices-and-the-magic-money/
It is a good analysis based directly on data reported to the Reserve Bank. I read it this morning.
The divergence between local mortgage funding and the funds tied up in houses over the last 15 years, especially since 2006 shows a bloody disturbing pattern of excessive speculation, and catastrophically in the last 4 years.
Unless of course some ideological numerically challenged idiots can point to funding sources in the local economy for hundreds of billions of dollars, I’m just going to assume this is from cheap overseas money piling into speculating mainly on Auckland properties.
In fact I am going to take a little informed leap and say that just at present most of the magic money appears to be coming from mainland China – because it is logical and backed by some rough but statistically valid evidence.
This isn’t a particular attack on Chinese despite what dickheads chose to believe. The problem is that there is nothing to stop people with capital that isn’t working much anywhere in the world looking for reasonably safe property investments with good returns continuing to pile it high in the Auckland market. The consequences for Auckland as a working city are dire.
I’d also point out to our numerically illiterates who were quoting David Hood’s analysis at me last week, that this magic money was what all of his previous analysis said as well. They just hadn’t read the comments carefully enough to understand what it meant.
I guess that I’ll just have to educate our local numerical idiots for a few years about the value of data and how to read it.
(if anyone hasn’t figured out that I’m annoyed by some of the blatant ideological stupidity I saw last week, can probably detect it now… )
So angry all of the time. Try a comment without using “idiot” and “dickhead”. If you put love into the universe, you get it back. It’s science, dude!
Nauru is going through a crisis with the President and leaders rejecting democracy in favour of direct, dictatorial action to suit themselves. Australia and the flow of money and the dumping of aliens in bad conditions on the island causing strain on the political system has probably tipped the balance.
In addition Nauru’s leaders looking round the world, have the example of barefaced dictatorial behaviour in Fiji by Bana….and the military there. There is Mugabe who has found a satisfactory system for him to grasp and hold onto power in Zimbabwe. There is the willingness for the USA to support countries with undemocratic political systems when it suits the USA.
The powerful democratic nations can surprisingly, act against encouraging the system of democracy in their own as well as other countries, with it virtues of valuing of individuals as well as groups. But the empty rhetoric about it continues while the undermining of it goes on.
edited
as the social, economic and environmental conditions of individual countries deteriorate, we will see the process of democracy continue to get hollowed out or abandoned.
Breaking news! Whaleoil interviews Colin Craigs “Mr X”
http://www.whaleoil.co.nz/2015/07/exclusive-mr-x-talks-to-whaleoil/
🙂
[lprent: Looks like Cameron interviewing his cock – you can tell from its sense of morality.
But more likely it is just Slater talking to himself. ]
alternate link :
http://www.donotlink.com/g5r4
Fair enough
Would you agree the style of presentation suggests Slater really really really does not want this to go much further ?
Apart from alluding to sexts and how he is obviously lusting after the associated scandal-mongering that would ensue, he appears to be concerned with the prospective duration and the potential for exposure from the legal proceedings.
Thats the problem with bully boys like Colin Craig isn’t it, they can afford to tie up people in the courts they threaten people with the courts
Even the most biast, one-eyed, Whaleoil hater (otherwise known as the your average Standard reader) would agree that Colon Craig is just trying to keep his name in the public eye
A damn expensive way to do it imho and its going to come back and bite him in the ass
it’ll be like watching a chess game where most of the pieces are missing and only half the board is in view at any time
I hope it does go ahead but I reckon Colon won’t go through with it which would be a shame
Nope. I doubt if he cares enough about that particular role now.
I suspect that he has decided (like so many of us) that Cameron Slater and other similar opportunistic arseholes just need to be eliminated from our political sphere. They don’t add anything. They lie routinely about facts because they care far more for the look of things than reality. They cause a lot of damage to the local political debate. They don’t add a damn thing to the debate because all they are concerned about is destruction rather than construction.
Anyone sensible just needs to go a little out of their way to screw them over in whatever way is required to get them out of the way of the rational public debate. Flush them in such a way that no-one wants to try the same tricks again. Do the same to their rather disgusting apologists.
Does this make it clear enough for you?
What it comes down to is you don’t like them therefore you support anyone that wants to take them down even if the people doing the “taking” are…dubious to say the least
Puckish, that could be restated as saying that the cause for which you may have allies is more important than who that ally is. Lprent has been very strong for a long time about Slater and his actions. Craig has just finally come to that realisation when he fell out with his fellow right wingers for whom Slater is the hack man.
I’m just saying that championing people such as Colin Craig, you know the guy thats got his former PA tied up in a non-disclosure agreement yet seems to spread as many details about as his likes and Krim Dot Con is not a good look
And I’m ‘just saying’ that people who look beyond that rather shallow interpretation of events will see that the cause which both Craig and many left -wingers espouse is the correct one.
That common cause is the rat-bag actions of a sociopathic individual who is used by others as their dirt-spreader and purveyer of pathogenic politics.
You know, Puckish, I never read of many individuals who criticised the New Zealand government for having allied with Joe Stalin in their common cause against fascism and Hitler. The enemy of my enemy is my friend, and all that.
Secondly, who’s ‘championing’ Craig? A rather loaded word, there.
Heres the thing though I don’t think Colin Craig is all that bothered by the cause so much as he can use it to stay in the limelight and convince the rest of followers that hes still a viable option for election
Desperate times call for desperate measures and this is hardly desperate except for those people who really, really dislike John Key
Its not a good look for the left to be cuddling up to drongoes simply because they don’t like certain individuals on the right
here’s a different thought:
As Colin Craig is reported as being a sternly religious person who obviously strayed off whatever path he was walking, perhaps the legal proceedings (he might be embarking upon) are a penance.
A form of redemptive service to allow him to reinstate his own conviction to his own beliefs.
I hadn’t thought of that possibility, I guess thats as good a guess as any as to his motivations
I don’t just dislike them. I think that they are dangerous and probably criminals.
I look at people and organisations as being potential dangers to our society and act against the worst of them first.
The conservatives I don’t like much because of their policies and attitudes. However they were acting well within the framework of political change systems in NZ. That means I will voice my opposition to them and their ideas, but respect their right to disagree.
Cameron Slater and the idiots at Lauda Finem, I view as acting as deliberately destructive fools who are too stupid to understand what they are really doing (read Dirty POlitics on the corrosive effects that they produce in politics). I also think that it likely that much of what they do is criminal. So I act against them as far as the laws allow, and encourage others to do so as well.
What is so hard for you to understand? This behaviour on my part must be pretty damn obvious even to posturing fools. FFS you rail against criminals here in a simplistic and rather stupid way all of the time as being a danger to society, in fact I have seen you do it today. You appear to follow the exact same logic – just because my reasons are a bit more thoughtful and less reflexive than yours shouldn’t make that much of a difference.
So your point is?
Well yes I’m guessing its not serious but it is amusing
Sicko
Kumquat
This could be of interest
I did like Ross Ashcrofts comment
“Austerity is back door privatisation”
http://everyinvestor.co.uk/2015/07/23/video-film-director-warns-on-financial-crisis/
Mainfreight just attacked the government’s lack of support for rail on RNZ saying just for Mainfreight alone if the rail system was closed this would add 21,500 truck movements.
Stick that in your pipe Bill English.
The Nats really don’t get the long-term vision thing.
they do ….and it is lining the pockets of themselves and their mates….they want to privatise KiwiRail imo…and Goldman Sachs is there to help them,
Goldman Sachs advises Treasury on sale of state assets…and on private investment opportunities…Is NZ rail being starved of taxpayer funds so it can be sold off privately and made into a private rail network.? ( the way they have done in Britain?)
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/4730668/Big-benefits-seen-in-State-asset-sales
http://www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/briefings/2014-commercial/bim-14-commercial.pdf
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Privatisation_of_British_Rail
“Goldman Sachs is one of the largest infrastructure fund managers globally, having raised more than $10 billion of capital since the inception of the business in 2006.
The primary focus for GS Infrastructure Partners (GSIP) is on investment opportunities with the following parameters:
Sectors including transportation infrastructure (such as airports, ports, railways and roads) and utilities infrastructure (such as electricity, gas and water networks and conventional/ renewable contracted power generation),….
http://www.goldmansachs.com/what-we-do/investing-and-lending/direct-private-investing/equity-folder/gs-infrastructure-partners.html
Labour needs to introduce an Anti- Money Laundering BIll…banks need to be on notice!
(Penny is right on the button to keep going on about the need for anti- corruption and anti -money laundering laws… especially as applied to what is going on in Auckland…It is no solution to Auckland’s problems to spread it to the rest of New Zealand )
“The “wall of Chinese capital” hitting property markets in Sydney and Melbourne will not ease up until the government introduces its anti-money laundering legislation, says an expert in ‘flight capital’….
The $US50,000 limit on exchanging Chinese currency into $US and $A was being breached in the majority of Chinese property deals in Melbourne and Sydney, and once the AML laws were introduced, the “wall of capital” from China would dry up.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/wall-of-chinese-capital-buying-up-australian-properties-20150628-ghztdf.html#ixzz3hFO1I1gK
( the same legislation is required in New Zealand)
Is anyone else suffering from Facebook’s attentions more than usual lately? I get two or three a day from them telling me I have more friends than I know about exhorting me to embrace and tell all to the world. FT. I don’t want to share every little nook and cranny about me so they can read me like a hedgehog in a spotlight, and be at my elbow guiding me to sites where they want to sell, sell.
Others seem to love fb and tweet. Yet as time goes on sinister things pop out of all these tech things like an evil genie.
Zizek says that there is too much smoothing our way so we slide or are directed along well-oiled grooves with expected levels of satisfaction, rather than stride around our domain and find and experience new things, have serendipity meetings and surprises.
The whole thing is a myth grey, a myth…
just like the myth of getting more work done by having your emails sent to you day and night – doesn’t save time at all, just re-orders it to intrude into private time. No savings or advantages whatsoever…
In the past in an 8 hour day, communicate 1 hour, work 7.
Today in an 8 hour day, communicate 3 hours, work 5.
Amply evidenced by recent projects completed which took same amount of time, money and effort as pre-email days…. i.e. internet communicatons provided no benefit to cost or time. Fact.
Just like we were sold the idea of speed and ease of eftpos – ha ha ha ha ha
Does you good to have a larf occasionally vto. Just a quick one and don’t burst a foo foo valve.
So can any lawyers on here explain why this guy doesn’t have a preventitve detention order slapped on him instead of a jail term in case he doesn’t take part in any courses and is still considered a threat when his sentence ends
Surely judges should err on the side of keeping the community safe?
Indeed. Lets start with Cameron Slater and the idiots at lauda finem.
The site is a bit slow at present. There is some clown in AWS east coast that has a new largish attack cluster that is a bit aggravating.
I got up last night to put a preventative in. However that just limited the impact, which has continued to increase today. So page displays and comments are a lot slower today. It hasn’t been worrisome enough to divert more time to..
I’ll be blocking the fool a bit more strongly after I get home, and getting their attack base shutdown.
Ok, that attack is toast. An interesting one to counter though. Almost worth writing a timewasting honey trap for.
Sounds like more fun than shooting tame lions in Africa for sure. How do you resist sending something nasty back down the pipe to fry his stuff?