Pick a side
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7:00 am, March 17th, 2022 - 351 comments
Categories: climate change, Deep stuff, global warming, grant robertson, International, jacinda ardern, Russia, science, us politics -
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Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelinsky has made a direct appeal broadcast to the United States Congress. That will sort out the Putin supporters from the rest.
Next week President Biden will travel to Europe. He will engage European leaders in person, leading up to the NATO conference on March 24th concerning the Russian invasion of Ukraine and any further threat escalation.
We haven’t seen this degree of US-European unity since the 1948-49 Berlin Airlift. It’s that kind of crisis, accelerating very fast.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is seeking to establish a new authoritarian-centric world order, beneficial to his regime and to the Chinese Communist Party. Breshnev’s Soviet military intervention in August 1968 to wipe out the reform movement of Alexander Dubcek is not a patch on what Putin’s armies are doing to Ukrainian towns now. Even Breshnev would negotiate properly before invading like this. Putin is worse than any Soviet leader after Stalin.
While everyone else was doing icecapades, Putin and Communist Chinese President Xi Jinping convened a summit aimed at uniting the two nations against what used to be called the Free World. They made it clear their opposition to the existence of NATO let alone any expansion.
With their joint statement touting that the friendship between the two nations “has no limits” and that there are “no forbidden areas of cooperation”, it is safe to say that the partnership will continue amid the Russia invasion. The two nations have new deals in oil imports with agreements worth US$117.5 billion for export from Russia to China.
In Vladimir Putin we see a leader defined by his personal control of industry, media, political order and military – without Biden’s democratic checks of a finely balanced Senate, Congress, Supreme Court, social media or mainstream media. This makes Putin’s autocratic rule very similar to that of Xi Jinping the leader of the Chinese Communist Party.
It is the strength of economic sanctions put in place by the United States that is the largest deterrent to China becoming a fully fledged partner with Russia in this war. But the civic costs will be staggering for all.
This is not a moment for false equivalences between left and right as we all deal with this largest European crisis since World War 2. This is the moment to reflect on why one side is in general better than the other and worth supporting. Doesn’t mean they are always right. Means there is a right and a wrong this time and we need to be a part of that support.
This makes the next eight weeks from now to the May budget some of the longest any government has faced here.
In that time the Labour government will need to simultaneously:
- forge a believable post-COVID operational society;
- stop people panicking about inflation and prices;
- make a meaningful contribution for Ukraine against the swagger of Russian and Chinese autocracies;
- roll out a full Carbon Zero plan;
- balance the books;
- pay for all the promises;
- assure the financial markets as well as assure us all; and
- gain traction back in the polls to win a third term.
I can’t think of a New Zealand government who has had to do anything remotely similar since George Forbes in the early 1930s. He lost.
New Zealand’s own resistance to Russia’s global destabilisation was witnessed in Labour’s quick moves to stabilise domestic petrol and diesel prices as well as halving public transport fares. Our Labour government had to balance rising inflation-borne panic and carbon reduction goals simultaneously.
New Zealand may be small, but we are approaching a moment similar to that which Bill Birch from the National Party faced in the 1970s.
It is easy to forget in this era of COVID, that we have weathered some equally massive shocks; the oil crisis that brought in the Think Big energy resilience programme, Britain brutally cutting the cord with our farmers which led to the stronger form of CER with Australia that we have still benefiting us today, the 1984 currency crisis, the 1987 sharemarket crash, the Christchurch earthquakes that led to the acceleration of whole-neighbourhood masterplanning, and more.
Bill Birch, who was central to the government responses to many of those crises, worried that younger generations are facing another great crisis in their lifetime, of climate change.
It’s the biggest challenge facing the globe going forward … we’ve just got to meet the challenge; we have just got to get the sentiment out of it and be rational in determining the effects of climate change and we can do about it and get on and do it.”
The Ukranian war unites climate change stress with a stress on the survival of strong values-based democratic government. It will need National and Labour to unite, and square up to consequences beyond the budget 2022:
New Zealand will need to accelerate energy independence from the rest of the world. Europe is running as fast as possible to remove their reliance on Russian gas. For the US it is accelerating oil and gas pipelines to secure future supplies. We don’t have the time to reinvent Think Big and too few can afford an electric car. We will probably need an agreement with Australia and Singapore that further assures our own supply, while we continue to take decades to wean ourselves off the combustion engine. We will probably need completely free public transport permanently.
New Zealand will need fertiliser and other agrichemical independence. There is a scramble on for that at the moment, but I bet the Chatham Rise mine proposal will be revisited.
New Zealand may need to think about nationalising some of the super-profits coming to dairy farmers to pay for the import crises that are building and the fast adjustments we are having to make.
New Zealand is going to need a new defence alliance with Australia, and probably the United States as well. Having strong and prepared allies in a time of growing war and destruction with autocratic alliances will surely be brought to mind this ANZAC Day. I would expect the United States will not make the same mistake in waiting until the final hour in defending Taiwan as many did with Ukraine.
We are not at the end of this. We are not in the moment to quote Peter Fraser as he helped form the United Nations. We are not in the protest moment of Prime Minister Kirk against the testing of nuclear bombs in our South Pacific. We are at the start of the crisis moment faced by Michael Joseph Savage in 1939 and Bill Birch in 1973 and 1979.
United States President Reagan once said: “Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. We didn’t pass it to our children in the bloodstream. It must be fought for, protected, and be handed on for them to do the same.” I’m almost sorry that came from a Republican, but it’s still true.
One may not envy Prime Minister Ardern or Finance Minister Robertson, but it’s time to pick a side.
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We’re boosting incomes and helping ease cost of living pressures on Kiwis through a range of bread and butter support measures that will see pensioners, students, families, and those on main benefits better off from the start of next month. ...1 week ago - Greens back teachers’ demandsThe Green Party backs the demands of the teachers’ strikers. ...1 week ago
- Greens will waste no time with Minister for Zero WasteThe error Labour Ministers made by stopping work on a beverage container return scheme will be reversed by the Greens at the earliest opportunity as part of the next Government. ...2 weeks ago
- Greens secure win for clean transportThe Green Party has made it easier for commuters to access e-bikes thanks to an amendment to tax rules. ...2 weeks ago
- Greens will always prioritise action on climate and inequality“Cabinet needs to do better - and today has shown exactly why we need Green Ministers in cabinet, so we can prioritise action to cut climate pollution and support people to make ends meet,” says Green Party co-leader Marama Davidson. ...2 weeks ago
- Bold action needed to help people eatBiggest increase in food prices for over three decades shows the need for an excess profit tax on corporations to help people put food on the table. ...2 weeks ago
- Another Green transport idea gets the green lightThe Government’s announcement today that it will improve Christchurch’s bus system comes after Green and NGO pressure. ...2 weeks ago
- Greens back teachers’ strikeThe Green Party stands with teachers in their request for fair pay and decision to strike. ...2 weeks ago
- Greens launch submission guide for Auckland Council budgetThe Green Party has today launched a submission guide to help Aucklanders give crucial input and prevent potentially disastrous Auckland Council budget proposals. ...2 weeks ago
- When even the Nats agree bank profits are out of control, it’s time for an excess profits taxWith calls growing for inquiries and action on bank profits, the Greens say the Government has all the information it needs to act now and put a levy on banks. ...3 weeks ago
- Climate action must remain priority in transport investmentAs large parts of Aotearoa recover from two of the worst climate disasters we have ever experienced, it would be a huge mistake for the Government to deprioritise climate action from future transport investments, the Green Party says. ...3 weeks ago
- Crown apology to Ngāti Kahungunu ki Wairarapa Tāmaki nui-a-Rua
Treaty of Waitangi Negotiations Minister Andrew Little has delivered the Crown apology to Ngāti Kahungunu ki Wairarapa Tāmaki nui-a-Rua for its historic breaches of Te Tiriti of Waitangi today. The ceremony was held at Queen Elizabeth Park in Masterton, hosted by Ngāti Kahungunu ki Wairarapa Tāmaki nui-a-Rua, with several hundred ...14 hours ago - Minister of Foreign Affairs meets with Chinese counterpartMinister of Foreign Affairs Nanaia Mahuta has concluded her visit to China, the first by a New Zealand Foreign Minister since 2018. The Minister met her counterpart, newly appointed State Councilor and Minister of Foreign Affairs, Qin Gang, who also hosted a working dinner. This was the first engagement between the two ...15 hours ago
- Government delivering world-class satellite positioning servicesWorld-class satellite positioning services that will support much safer search and rescue, boost precision farming, and help safety on construction sites through greater accuracy are a significant step closer today, says Land Information Minister Damien O’Connor. Damien O’Connor marked the start of construction on New Zealand’s first uplink centre for ...1 day ago
- District Court Judges appointedAttorney-General David Parker has announced the appointment of Christopher John Dellabarca of Wellington, Dr Katie Jane Elkin of Wellington, Caroline Mary Hickman of Napier, Ngaroma Tahana of Rotorua, Tania Rose Williams Blyth of Hamilton and Nicola Jan Wills of Wellington as District Court Judges. Chris Dellabarca Mr Dellabarca commenced his ...2 days ago
- New project set to supercharge ocean economy in Nelson TasmanA new Government-backed project will help ocean-related businesses in the Nelson Tasman region to accelerate their growth and boost jobs. “The Nelson Tasman region is home to more than 400 blue economy businesses, accounting for more than 30 percent of New Zealand’s economic activity in fishing, aquaculture, and seafood processing,” ...2 days ago
- National’s education policy: where’s the funding?After three years of COVID-19 disruptions schools are finally settling down and National want to throw that all in the air with major disruption to learning and underinvestment. “National’s education policy lacks the very thing teachers, parents and students need after a tough couple of years, certainty and stability,” Education ...3 days ago
- Free programme to help older entrepreneurs and inventorsPeople aged over 50 with innovative business ideas will now be able to receive support to advance their ideas to the next stage of development, Minister for Seniors Ginny Andersen said today. “Seniors have some great entrepreneurial ideas, and this programme will give them the support to take that next ...3 days ago
- Government target increased to keep powering up the Māori economyA cross government target for relevant government procurement contracts for goods and services to be awarded to Māori businesses annually will increase to 8%, after the initial 5% target was exceeded. The progressive procurement policy was introduced in 2020 to increase supplier diversity, starting with Māori businesses, for the estimated ...3 days ago
- Continued progress on reducing poverty in challenging times77,000 fewer children living in low income households on the after-housing-costs primary measure since Labour took office Eight of the nine child poverty measures have seen a statistically significant reduction since 2018. All nine have reduced 28,700 fewer children experiencing material hardship since 2018 Measures taken by the Government during ...3 days ago
- Speech at Fiji Investment and Trade Business ForumDeputy Prime Minister Kamikamica; distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen. Tēnā koutou katoa, ni sa bula vinaka saka, namaste. Deputy Prime Minister, a very warm welcome to Aotearoa. I trust you have been enjoying your time here and thank you for joining us here today. To all delegates who have travelled to be ...3 days ago
- Government investments boost and diversify local economies in lower South Island$2.9 million convertible loan for Scapegrace Distillery to meet growing national and international demand $4.5m underwrite to support Silverlight Studios’ project to establish a film studio in Wanaka Gore’s James Cumming Community Centre and Library to be official opened tomorrow with support of $3m from the COVID-19 Response and Recovery ...3 days ago
- Government future-proofs EV chargingTransport Minister Michael Wood has today launched the first national EV (electric vehicle) charging strategy, Charging Our Future, which includes plans to provide EV charging stations in almost every town in New Zealand. “Our vision is for Aotearoa New Zealand to have world-class EV charging infrastructure that is accessible, affordable, ...3 days ago
- World-leading family harm prevention campaign supports young NZersAssociate Minister for Social Development and Employment Priyanca Radhakrishnan has today launched the Love Better campaign in a world-leading approach to family harm prevention. Love Better will initially support young people through their experience of break-ups, developing positive and life-long attitudes to dealing with hurt. “Over 1,200 young kiwis told ...3 days ago
- First Chief Clinical Advisor welcomed into Coroners CourtHon Rino Tirikatene, Minister for Courts, welcomes the Ministry of Justice’s appointment of Dr Garry Clearwater as New Zealand’s first Chief Clinical Advisor working with the Coroners Court. “This appointment is significant for the Coroners Court and New Zealand’s wider coronial system.” Minister Tirikatene said. Through Budget 2022, the Government ...3 days ago
- Next steps for affected properties post Cyclone and floodsThe Government via the Cyclone Taskforce is working with local government and insurance companies to build a picture of high-risk areas following Cyclone Gabrielle and January floods. “The Taskforce, led by Sir Brian Roche, has been working with insurance companies to undertake an assessment of high-risk areas so we can ...4 days ago
- New appointment to Māori Land Court benchE te huia kaimanawa, ko Ngāpuhi e whakahari ana i tau aupikinga ki te tihi o te maunga. Ko te Ao Māori hoki e whakanui ana i a koe te whakaihu waka o te reo Māori i roto i te Ao Ture. (To the prized treasure, it is Ngāpuhi who ...4 days ago
- Government focus on jobs sees record number of New Zealanders move from Benefits into work113,400 exits into work in the year to June 2022 Young people are moving off Benefit faster than after the Global Financial Crisis Two reports released today by the Ministry of Social Development show the Government’s investment in the COVID-19 response helped drive record numbers of people off Benefits and ...4 days ago
- Vertical farming partnership has upward momentumThe Government’s priority to keep New Zealand at the cutting edge of food production and lift our sustainability credentials continues by backing the next steps of a hi-tech vertical farming venture that uses up to 95 per cent less water, is climate resilient, and pesticide-free. Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor visited ...4 days ago
- Conference of Pacific Education Ministers – Keynote AddressE nga mana, e nga iwi, e nga reo, e nga hau e wha, tena koutou, tena koutou, tena koutou kātoa. Warm Pacific greetings to all. It is an honour to host the inaugural Conference of Pacific Education Ministers here in Tāmaki Makaurau. Aotearoa is delighted to be hosting you ...4 days ago
- New $13m renal unit supports Taranaki patientsThe new renal unit at Taranaki Base Hospital has been officially opened by the Minister of Health Dr Ayesha Verrall this afternoon. Te Huhi Raupō received around $13 million in government funding as part of Project Maunga Stage 2, the redevelopment of the Taranaki Base Hospital campus. “It’s an honour ...4 days ago
- Second Poseidon aircraft on home soilDefence Minister Andrew Little has marked the arrival of the country’s second P-8A Poseidon aircraft alongside personnel at the Royal New Zealand Air Force’s Base at Ohakea today. “With two of the four P-8A Poseidons now on home soil this marks another significant milestone in the Government’s historic investment in ...5 days ago
- Further humanitarian aid for Türkiye and SyriaAotearoa New Zealand will provide further humanitarian support to those seriously affected by last month’s deadly earthquakes in Türkiye and Syria, says Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta. “The 6 February earthquakes have had devastating consequences, with almost 18 million people affected. More than 53,000 people have died and tens of thousands more ...5 days ago
- Community voice to help shape immigration policyMigrant communities across New Zealand are represented in the new Migrant Community Reference Group that will help shape immigration policy going forward, Immigration Minister Michael Wood announced today. “Since becoming Minister, a reoccurring message I have heard from migrants is the feeling their voice has often been missing around policy ...5 days ago
- State Highway 3 project to deliver safer journeys, better travel connections for TaranakiConstruction has begun on major works that will deliver significant safety improvements on State Highway 3 from Waitara to Bell Block, Associate Minister of Transport Kiri Allan announced today. “This is an important route for communities, freight and visitors to Taranaki but too many people have lost their lives or ...5 days ago
- Ginny Andersen appointed as Minister of PolicePrime Minister Chris Hipkins has today appointed Ginny Andersen as Minister of Police. “Ginny Andersen has a strong and relevant background in this important portfolio,” Chris Hipkins said. “Ginny Andersen worked for the Police as a non-sworn staff member for around 10 years and has more recently been chair of ...5 days ago
- Government confirms vital roading reconnectionsSix further bailey bridge sites confirmed Four additional bridge sites under consideration 91 per cent of damaged state highways reopened Recovery Dashboards for impacted regions released The Government has responded quickly to restore lifeline routes after Cyclone Gabrielle and can today confirm that an additional six bailey bridges will ...5 days ago
- Foreign Minister Mahuta to meet with China’s new Foreign MinisterForeign Minister Nanaia Mahuta departs for China tomorrow, where she will meet with her counterpart, State Councillor and Foreign Minister Qin Gang, in Beijing. This will be the first visit by a New Zealand Minister to China since 2019, and follows the easing of COVID-19 travel restrictions between New Zealand and China. ...6 days ago
- Education Ministers from across the Pacific gather in AotearoaEducation Ministers from across the Pacific will gather in Tāmaki Makaurau this week to share their collective knowledge and strategic vision, for the benefit of ākonga across the region. New Zealand Education Minister Jan Tinetti will host the inaugural Conference of Pacific Education Ministers (CPEM) for three days from today, ...6 days ago
- State Highway 5 reopens between Napier and Taupō following Cyclone GabrielleA vital transport link for communities and local businesses has been restored following Cyclone Gabrielle with the reopening of State Highway 5 (SH5) between Napier and Taupō, Associate Minister of Transport Kiri Allan says. SH5 reopened to all traffic between 7am and 7pm from today, with closure points at SH2 (Kaimata ...6 days ago
- Special Lotto draw raises $11.7 million for Cyclone Gabrielle recoveryInternal Affairs Minister Barbara Edmonds has thanked generous New Zealanders who took part in the special Lotto draw for communities affected by Cyclone Gabrielle. Held on Saturday night, the draw raised $11.7 million with half of all ticket sales going towards recovery efforts. “In a time of need, New Zealanders ...7 days ago
- Government delivers a $3 million funding boost for Building Financial Capability servicesThe Government has announced funding of $3 million for providers to help people, and whānau access community-based Building Financial Capability services. “Demand for Financial Capability Services is growing as people face cost of living pressures. Those pressures are increasing further in areas affected by flooding and Cyclone Gabrielle,” Minister for ...1 week ago
- Education New Zealand | Manapou ki te Ao – new Chair and memberMinister of Education, Hon Jan Tinetti, has announced appointments to the Board of Education New Zealand | Manapou ki te Ao. Tracey Bridges is joining the Board as the new Chair and Dr Therese Arseneau will be a new member. Current members Dr Linda Sissons CNZM and Daniel Wilson have ...1 week ago
- Scholarships honouring Ngarimu VC and the 28th (Māori) Battalion announcedFifteen ākonga Māori from across Aotearoa have been awarded the prestigious Ngarimu VC and 28th (Māori) Battalion Memorial Scholarships and Awards for 2023, Associate Education Minister and Ngarimu Board Chair, Kelvin Davis announced today. The recipients include doctoral, masters’ and undergraduate students. Three vocational training students and five wharekura students, ...1 week ago
- Appointment of Judge of the Court of Appeal and Judge of the High CourtHigh Court Judge Jillian Maree Mallon has been appointed a Judge of the Court of Appeal, and District Court Judge Andrew John Becroft QSO has been appointed a Judge of the High Court, Attorney‑General David Parker announced today. Justice Mallon graduated from Otago University in 1988 with an LLB (Hons), and with ...1 week ago
- NZ still well placed to meet global challengesThe economy has continued to show its resilience despite today’s GDP figures showing a modest decline in the December quarter, leaving the Government well positioned to help New Zealanders face cost of living pressures in a challenging global environment. “The economy had grown strongly in the two quarters before this ...1 week ago
- Western Ring Route CompleteAucklanders now have more ways to get around as Transport Minister Michael Wood opened the direct State Highway 1 (SH1) to State Highway 18 (SH18) underpass today, marking the completion of the 48-kilometre Western Ring Route (WRR). “The Government is upgrading New Zealand’s transport system to make it safer, more ...1 week ago
- Briefings to Incoming MinistersThis section contains briefings received by incoming ministers following changes to Cabinet in January. Some information may have been withheld in accordance with the Official Information Act 1982. Where information has been withheld that is indicated within the document. ...1 week ago
- Teaming up for a stronger, more resilient FijiAotearoa New Zealand Foreign Affairs Minister Nanaia Mahuta reaffirmed her commitment to working together with the new Government of Fiji on issues of shared importance, including on the prioritisation of climate change and sustainability, at a meeting today, in Nadi. Fiji and Aotearoa New Zealand’s close relationship is underpinned by the Duavata ...1 week ago
- Investment in blue highway a lifeline for regional economies and cyclone recoveryThe Government is delivering a coastal shipping lifeline for businesses, residents and the primary sector in the cyclone-stricken regions of Hawkes Bay and Tairāwhiti, Regional Development Minister Kiri Allan announced today. The Rangitata vessel has been chartered for an emergency coastal shipping route between Gisborne and Napier, with potential for ...1 week ago
- Next steps developing clean energy for NZThe Government will progress to the next stage of the NZ Battery Project, looking at the viability of pumped hydro as well as an alternative, multi-technology approach as part of the Government’s long term-plan to build a resilient, affordable, secure and decarbonised energy system in New Zealand, Energy and Resources ...1 week ago
- Labor set to win thumping majority in NSW election
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne Dean Lewins/AAP With 36% of enrolled voters counted in today’s New South Wales state election, the Poll Bludger’s results currently ...3 hours ago - Animal Justice Party Shares Views On The Therapeutic Products Bill
...4 hours ago - ‘Exceptional redevelopment potential’: Auckland’s Skyworld complex is up for sale
A former entertainment mecca in the middle of Auckland is up for grabs. The problem? It’s been run into the ground. Have you got spare cash sitting around? Do you want to buy something grand, something special? How does a nine-storey complex covering 3,486 square metres in the middle of ...8 hours ago - Posey Parker drowned out by thousands
Posey Parker appeared in Auckland today for a brief few moments, but it was clear that she was going to have a hard time being heard above thousands of people exercising their own right to free speech The streets of Auckland’s city centre were thick today with the noise of tubas, ...11 hours ago - Marama Davidson hit by motorcyclist after Posie Parker protest
Green Party co-leader Marama Davidson was knocked to the ground by a motorcyclist who appeared to fail to stop at a pedestrian crossing after today's counter-protest against Posie Parker. ...12 hours ago - Green Party co-leader Marama Davidson struck by motorcycle at protestGreen Party co-leader Marama Davidson was struck by a passing motorcycle this morning as she protested Kellie-Jay Keen-Minshull’s rally event at Albert Park. Davidson was standing on Princes St holding a sign reading “trans solidarity” when a band of motorcyclists, there in support of Brian and Hannah Tamaki’s Vision NZ, ...13 hours ago
- News media ‘not an enemy or nuisance’, Fiji editor tells policeBy Krishneel Nair in Suva “The most important thing from my perspective is a strategic partnership — a partnership where the media should not be seen as the enemy or a nuisance.” This was the view of the Communications Fiji Ltd news director and Fijian Media Association executive Vijay Narayan ...14 hours ago
- Anti-trans speaker leaves rally amid thousands of protestersThe noise began long before Kellie-Jay Keen-Minshull (AKA Posie Parker) arrived. Despite an 11am scheduled start time to her planned rally to “speak for women”, the Albert Park rotunda was surrounded by 10.30. But the crowd was not there to see or hear her. A truck parked at the entrance ...15 hours ago
- The best way to enjoy the new John Wick movie? With your John Wick friendChris Schulz on the nearly three-hours of joy Keanu Reeves’ latest non-stop orgy of violence brings. This is an excerpt from our pop culture newsletter Rec Room. Sign up to have it delivered to your inbox every Friday here. Keanu Reeves has annihilated the place. In what appears to be ...15 hours ago
- Focus on Politics: National's plan to school LabourTeacher unions have criticised National's curriculum plan, but the party was targeting concerned parents and his political opponent, Prime Minister Chris Hipkins. ...16 hours ago
- Review: Caged shows the sacrifice and teamwork that go into making a UFC starDon’t underestimate the significance of TVNZ’s new documentary series about Kai Kara-France, a fighter acclaimed on the world stage but still criminally underrated at home, writes Don Rowe. In 2015, when I first profiled Kai Kara-France for the now-defunct Mana magazine, he told me he’d never wanted to sign with ...16 hours ago
- Final NSW Newspoll gives Labor a thumping lead; federal Labor’s lead widensSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne Justin Lloyd/AAP The New South Wales state election is today. Polls close at 6pm AEDT. Votes cast on election day ...17 hours ago
- Renting over 65: The uncertain future facing more and more New ZealandersIf current trends continue, by 2053 half of retirement-age New Zealanders will be renters. Right now, options for over-65s who don’t own their own home are limited. This story was first published on Stuff. What’s life like when you reach retirement age, but don’t own a home of your own? Most ...18 hours ago
- Marsupials and other mammals separately evolved flight many times, and we are finally learning howSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Charles Feigin, Postdoctoral Fellow in Genomics and Evolution, The University of Melbourne Anom Harya/Shutterstock Shoot for the moon. Even if you miss, you’ll land on the next tree. Many groups of mammals seem to have taken this evolutionary advice to ...18 hours ago
- Lobbyists in New Zealand enjoy freedoms unlike most other nations in the developed worldWhen a big corporate is alarmed about possible law changes, it asks its well-connected lobbyist to intervene. A text message exchange between a Cabinet Minister and his lobbyist "mate" follows. ...18 hours ago
- The Detail's Long Read: What's Up With ADHD?
This is The Detail's Long Read - one in-depth story read by us every weekend This week, it's What's Up With ADHD?, written by Mirjam Guesgen and published in North & South's April 2023 issue. You can find the full article, with illustrations by Rachel Salazar, in this month’s issue of North & South. Once a condition ...21 hours ago - The Detail's Long Read: What's Up With ADHD?This is The Detail's Long Read - one in-depth story read by us every weekend This week, it's What's Up With ADHD?, written by Mirjam Guesgen and published in North & South's April 2023 issue. You can find the full article, with illustrations by Rachel Salazar, in this month’s issue of North & South. Once a condition ...21 hours ago
- Short story: The Islands of Arthur Trimble
"He imagines the rattling windows of his bach": a sad seaside saga by Majella Cullinane Màiri watches him as he walks down the hill next to her house. The man appears gradually – first his head covered in a tweed cap and earphones, then the unkempt hair and beard, ...21 hours ago - Short story: The Islands of Arthur Trimble"He imagines the rattling windows of his bach": a sad seaside saga by Majella Cullinane Màiri watches him as he walks down the hill next to her house. The man appears gradually – first his head covered in a tweed cap and earphones, then the unkempt hair and beard, ...21 hours ago
- The Week in Detail: Top authors, lobbying, and Muriwai
Every weekday, The Detail makes sense of the big news stories. This week, we looked at how our top authors make a living writing books, the sky-high fares coming from independent taxi drivers, how the people of Muriwai are putting their lives back together post-Cyclone Gabrielle, why a Levin chocolate maker is ...21 hours ago - The Week in Detail: Top authors, lobbying, and MuriwaiEvery weekday, The Detail makes sense of the big news stories. This week, we looked at how our top authors make a living writing books, the sky-high fares coming from independent taxi drivers, how the people of Muriwai are putting their lives back together post-Cyclone Gabrielle, why a Levin chocolate maker is ...21 hours ago
- Why we enjoy the excruciating miseries of the super-rich
The popularity of stories about unhappy rich people says more about our need to view them that way than it does about how they experience their lives Opinion: Succession is returning to Aotearoa’s television screens. It joins other portrayals of the emotional traumas that come from having far, far too ...21 hours ago - Why we enjoy the excruciating miseries of the super-richThe popularity of stories about unhappy rich people says more about our need to view them that way than it does about how they experience their lives Opinion: Succession is returning to Aotearoa’s television screens. It joins other portrayals of the emotional traumas that come from having far, far too ...21 hours ago
- Inside the radical plan to build ‘the new state house’ and change renting foreverNot content with transforming KiwiSaver, Simplicity is now planning to out-build Kāinga Ora. Duncan Greive meets a pair of of unlikely revolutionaries trying to fix housing – a task which seems impossible, even for the state itself. In September of 2020, a builder named Shane Brealey sat down and typed ...22 hours ago
- What not to miss at the Auckland Writers Festival 2023The Auckland Writers Festival has just launched its 23rd programme, the first since Covid to include its signature line-up of visiting international writers. With 160 events to choose from, here’s books editor Claire Mabey’s top 10 to help you navigate your way through the lit fest universe. Straight Up: Ruby ...22 hours ago
- Family tree key to Twigg's fifth Olympic bid
Taking her her young family around the world as she rows is a key factor in Emma Twigg's decision to defend her Olympic single sculls title at next year's Paris Olympics. And, Andy Hay writes, the next Emma Twigg could be waiting in the wings at the Maadi Cup next week. ...22 hours ago - Fijian Drua and Moana Pasifika looking for 80min performancesThe Fijian Drua will need to start and finish well, while Moana Pasifika’s coach wants to see a full 80-minute performance this weekend as the two regional teams continue their Super Rugby Pacific campaigns. The Drua tackle the Highlanders in Dunedin today and Pasifika face the Hurricanes at Mt Smart ...1 day ago
- PNG contractors plead for government to pay up after 12-year waitBy Todagia Kelola in Port Moresby A number of small contractors in Papua New Guinea are still waiting for positive feedback for money owed to them by government agencies after 12 years. A 2015 Post-Courier front page picture showed a man, David Goli, who chained himself at the then headquarters ...1 day ago
- A new review into how teachers are educated should acknowledge they learn throughout their careers (...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Beryl Exley, Professor, Griffith Institute for Educational Research, Griffith University, Griffith University Shutterstock Last August, the federal government set up an expert panel to look at the continuous improvement agenda in teacher education in Australia. The panel, led by ...1 day ago
- Analysis: Teachers need a lot of things, another curriculum 'rewrite' isn't oneWe all clearly want the best learning outcomes for our nation's children, but there are deep ideological divisions, writes Cathy Buntting. ...1 day ago
- The Winston Peters greatest hits hourThe New Zealand First leader took to the altar of an East Auckland church today to set out his 2023 election agenda. It was, as Stewart Sowman-Lund found out, pretty much what you’d expect. Winston Peters rolled into Howick today with a state of the nation speech that, he claimed ...1 day ago
- Woolworths is getting into telehealth – but patients need to be treated as more than customersSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jon Wardle, Professor of Public Health, Southern Cross University Shutterstock Earlier this week, Australian retail giant Woolworths announced a move into health-care delivery via development of its subsidiary HealthyLife’s online portal. Through this portal, Australians can book a same-day ...1 day ago
- Winston Peters rails against secret 'woke agenda' in campaign speechNew Zealand First leader Winston Peters - eyeing a political comeback - has used a scene-setting speech in Auckland warning against a "conceited, conniving, cultural cabal". ...1 day ago
- At the 2023 Adelaide Festival, the best works shimmer with a brutal honesty on incarceration, exile ...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By William Peterson, Adjunct Associate Professor, Auckland University of Technology The Sheep Song. Tim Standing/Daylight Breaks/Adelaide Festival Few Adelaideans remember a time before the Adelaide Festival. Formed in 1960 as a civic enterprise and financed against loss by prominent Adelaide businessmen, the ...1 day ago
- Week in Politics: Minor parties could hold unprecedented influence post-electionAnalysis - The Greens lay down a challenge as the minor parties approach an election in which both National and Labour are going to need coalition partners to form a government, writes Peter Wilson. ...1 day ago
- Repeal Fiji’s media law and start with ‘clean slate’, says CFL chiefBy Arieta Vakasukawaqa in Suva Communications Fiji Ltd (CFL) chair William Parkinson has called for a repeal of Fiji’s Media Industry Development Act 2010 and more discussion on the proposed Media Ownership and Registration Bill 2023. He said this during a public consultation on the review of MIDA Act 2010 ...1 day ago
- Posie Parker wins the beautiful freedom to make an ugly argument
High Court Justice David Gendall regretfully allows anti-trans activist to enter New Zealand, but warns the expression of her views may be harmful to our vulnerable rainbow community. Jonathan Milne does his best to be civil. Opinion: Kellie-Jay Keen-Minshull calls herself Posie Parker. And that's what I'm going to call her. Because she is ...1 day ago - Guy Montgomery’s Guy Mont Spelling Bee is an absolute joyIt’s about time somebody made a wacky TV show about how bonkers spelling is. Enter comedian Guy Montgomery and his Guy Mont Spelling Bee. The three years since Covid-19 began have been pretty rocky, but one of the best things to come out of the chaos was Guy Montgomery’s Guy ...1 day ago
- Psychologists Condemn Anti-trans Hate Speech And Urge The Government To Put Hate Speech Laws Back On...Te Rōpū Mātai Hinengaro o Aotearoa, The New Zealand Psychological Society (NZPsS) stands beside LGBTQIA+ and Takatāpui communities rallying against anti-trans rhetoric in light of the impending visit of Kellie-Jay Keen-Minshull (Posie Parker). We are ...1 day ago
- Shocking and controversial: MAFS Australia has outrated 1NewsEarlier this month, everybody’s favourite Monster of the Week series Married at First Sight Australia toppled 1News to become the highest rating television show for New Zealand viewers aged 25-54. The controversial reality series garnered an average audience of 137,000, or 6.7% audience share from March 5 until March 11. ...2 days ago
- Ingredient of the week: FeijoasIt’s the most wonderful time of the year for feijoa lovers – here’s how to make the most of it. Fragrant and sweet, with a delicate jelly centre surrounded by gritty, tangy flesh, all encased in a green sour skin. My parents’ feijoa tree has just dropped its first fruit, ...2 days ago
- The Friday Poem: ‘Bang a Drum’ by Maggie Rainey-SmithA new poem by poet and novelist Maggie Rainey-Smith. Bang a Drum We’ve hit Gentle Annie passed the pub at Okaramio and on the left, at Wakapuaka there’s Sunnybank where parents left their children An oddly named orphanage manned (ha) by Nuns childless women in black habits, scapula, cowls and ...2 days ago
- Teachers need a lot of things right now, but another curriculum ‘rewrite’ isn’t one of themSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Cathy Buntting, Director, Wilf Malcolm Institute of Educational Research, University of Waikato Getty Images Less than a fortnight after teachers staged a national strike, education was back in the headlines with the National Party’s release of its curriculum policy – ...2 days ago
- The Unity Books bestseller chart for the week ending March 24The only published and available best-selling indie book chart in New Zealand is the top 10 sales list recorded every week at Unity Books’ stores in High St, Auckland, and Willis St, Wellington. AUCKLAND 1 Birnam Wood by Eleanor Catton (Te Herenga Waka University Press, $38) Number one in both ...2 days ago
- High Court Decision The Only Right Result For Nation That Values Free SpeechThe Free Speech Union welcomes the decision of the High Court to reject the application to overrule the decision of the Minister of Immigration to allow Kellie-Jay entry into New Zealand. This was the only right result for a nation that ...2 days ago
- AI chatbots with Chinese characteristics: why Baidu’s ChatGPT rival may never measure upSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Fan Yang, Research Associate at RMIT and Alfred Deakin Institute, Deakin University Baidu’s ERNIE Bot was launched to considerable disappointment. Ng Han Guan / AP On March 16, Baidu unveiled China’s latest rival to OpenAI’s ChatGPT – ERNIE Bot (short for “Enhanced ...2 days ago
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"Russian President Vladimir Putin is seeking to establish a new authoritarian-centric world order"…..uh-oh…crazed propaganda coming, and Advantage doesn't disappoint…I was going to take parts out to highlight the outragous hypocrisy in this crazy rant, but I would have basically had to quote the entire thing.
Just crazed paranoid propaganda spewed out from beginning to end….with no attempt or even the slightest hint of balance. nuance or geo-political and/or historical context.
Let’s just be honest here, most of you chose your side in 2016 (at the latest), anyway hope you like it….from the outside, you seem to love it…..
Since the first comment under a Post can set the tune, here it goes:
Adrian doesn’t disappoint and instead of unpacking the OP and providing a counter argument in order to have robust political debate he chooses to have another rant of his own together with his mandatory and idiosyncratic ‘counter-propaganda’ in the form of yet another YT clip – what better way to make a powerful point without taking the time to write your own opinion on a topic in your own words.
Yes, the topic is hard and some opinions on the topic will be controversial, but that’s what we do here: we take the challenge and engage in mature debate in good faith. Or not, as is the case here.
Spray and walkaway but don’t engage in actual debate, rant & rage is Adrian’s motto & mojo.
"but don’t engage in actual debate"..I think you will find I engage in plenty of debates on this forum ….however when it comes to what is just a straight out propaganda piece like this drivel….where would you even start unpacking such nonsense.
Yes, you do engage in plenty of debates on this forum when you channel your passion and use your skills in such way. The point is that when you don’t want or don’t have the time to engage in constructive robust debate you cannot seem avoiding taking aim at the individuals rather than at their political points (if any). This is not constructive and it tends to get rather nasty quite quickly, which by itself is not conducive to healthy debate. I shouldn’t have to tell you these things, again, but here I am, again.
I’m not your enemy and I keep giving you enough warnings to continue your many positive contributions that are liked and appreciated by many others here. In any debate, balance is good, nuance is good, but taking shots at others is not.
If you don’t want to unpack something that you consider nonsense you could just say that in your view it is nonsense and leave it at that. Better to leave all the other personal labels and snide remarks out of it, particularly the ones aimed at the Author of the OP.
I sincerely HTH.
Good on you Adrian , but these guys have never felt such purity of blood lust coursing through their veins, such thrilling collective hatred, it's united them like never before…and they're not about to give it up.
I am predicting a Russian chemical attack.Ever since Nuland answered Rubio at the committee hearing and said"We're afraid of the Russians getting their hands on this material"(so these are stocks the Russians wouldn't have themselves?)there have been so many threats and red lines issued and media warnings"The Russians may be planning a chemical attack.That would change everything" that I think a chemical attack/false flag is absolutely on the cards .
The blue eyed heroes here will be packing their pyjamas and heading for the Ukrainian foreign legion toute suite.Ironic, their fathers and grandfathers fought against the Nazis, there they will be trained by them
As little as 3 years ago, the Ukraine Parliament included overt neo nazis.It takes longer than 3 years to clean up an ideology like that.
https://marktaliano.net/the-alarming-rise-of-ukraines-neo-nazi-mps-since-the-2014-pro-democracy-revolution-by-shane-quinn/
The revolution of dignity has spawned some pretty ugly fruit.
War is not the way to combat it though, it'll spread like crazy everywhere, especially as resources dwindle and energy crises bite
https://www.fairobserver.com/region/europe/medea-benjamin-nicolas-js-davies-ukraine-war-russia-ukranian-neo-nazi-fascists-azov-battalion-89292/
But keep up the good fight Adrian .I appreciate it
I've picked my side, I'm on the side of a peace settlement that doesn't humiliate Ukraine or Russia, and gives security guarantees to both.Before too many more lives are lost
but these guys have never felt such purity of blood lust coursing through their veins, such thrilling collective hatred, it's united them like never before…and they're not about to give it up.
So you would be calm and peaceful about Russian troops shelling your home?
There is one indisputable truth about this war – Putin started it. And until he is stopped he will never end it.
If I was in Eastern Ukraine from 2014 on, no I would not be feeling calm and peaceful about the Ukrainian army bombing my home and killing my children because I refused to accept a coup that caused my president(Yanukovich and the Party of Regions was majority supported by Crimea and the eastern provinces) to flee for his life.
The war did not start in 2022
Putin has repeatedly said 'there is no Ukraine' – and imagined he could restore the old Soviet Union with impunity.
The fundamental problem for all dictators is that the people around them will not tell them the truth – and eventually they become convinced of their own lies. But lies always incur a debt to the truth – a debt now being repaid with the lives of Ukrainian people.
Red for goodness sake.
Russia's military spending is 6% of NATO, 1/10 of the US.
Their economy is that of Texas.
You cannot occupy a country by nukes
Putin is not stupid, or his advisers , or the bureaucratic muddle of the Duma, or Shoigu, or Lavrov, say what you like about them.
When Putin said "Whoever does not mourn the passing of the Soviet Union has no heart, whoever wants it back has no brain" was expressing the reality of the situation
You cannot occupy a country by nukes
Yes but by repeatedly rattling the nuclear sabre these past few weeks he has effectively prevented NATO from acting directly against him. Which means his 6% has trumped the whole of rest of the world.
What exactly then is to stop him repeating this formula until his troops reach Paris?
And as for what Putin says – this is the man who told the us for months that all those troops he had parked on the border were not going to invade. His words are worthless, the only thing he can bring of value to the world now is his death.
Simple Red
Logistics, supply chains, numbers,.The boots on the ground in Ukraine are unnecessary now because Russia has nukes you say?If all Russia needs to dominate Europe is nukes, why the invasion?
I'm not getting your logic
Why the did they lose Afghanistan?
All your and others crowing about how useless the Russian army is now meaningless?
The US has nukes in NATO countries, easily in striking range of Moscow.
They have the same power to dominate.
I’ve travelled through a lot of iron curtain states. I only recall a few people bemoaning the loss of the Soviet Union. The rest were gobsmacked I cared enough to check out the communism museum as they didn’t think it was worth remembering
In that respect the main thing I remember was the usual toast over a vodka or two that went – 'to freedom'.
"The rest were gobsmacked I cared enough to check out the communism museum as they didn’t think it was worth remembering "
Some thing were probably worth remembering though….
Anthropologist Explains Why Women Have Better Sex Under Socialism
Natos own rules 'prevent them from acting'
They are a self defence organisation for its members , Ukraine isnt one
Many of natos members are getting involved on their own bat
Nato has done its own occupying in Europe and even remains in Kosovo 20 years late , inspite of their 'assembly' declaring independence
We in NZ know all about joining defence pacts with US, its all about what the US wants and where. And we were strong armed into sending military related missions , some were out and out occupation duties in places like Afghanistan and Iraq which dont threaten our peace and security
The only time Nato’s article 5 has been invoked was after 9/11.
Their military sorties have been wars of aggression , not defence…on weaker countries natch. Nukes is something else
Even if peace comes to Ukraine 'quickly' many in US will lament that it came too quickly as they are itching for a dominance war with Russia
Just as the last of a number of Balkan war over the boundaries left by the end of the Ottoman Empire in SE Europe- that between Serbia and Austria morphed into the Great War as it was called back then, many in US want to break up Russia itself.
They usually give lots of reasons why Russia activities show it isnt a model country – and it certainly isnt. But hey not every place can or could be Luxembourg.
US own military adventures are too numerous to mention and of course making westerners happy in their kaffeklatches over the right sort of country doesnt matter when bombs are raining down from those very western countries
a Beirut suburb flattened by Israel
because it could
@RedLogix….Can you please link to two or three seperate occasions when Putin has specifically said 'there is no Ukraine'…thanks.
https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/you-have-understand-george-ukraine-not-even-country
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/23/world/europe/putin-speech-russia-ukraine.html
I assume you are referring to the title of the piece in your first link?…'You Have to Understand, George. Ukraine Is Not Even a Country'…I can't seem to find the origin of that quote..maybe you can?…it seems everyone uses it, but without a link to it's original origin and therefore context it is worthless….
The second link I can't open (paywall)..so how about you paste up the bit from it you are referring to, thanks.
Redlogix said "Putin has repeatedly said 'there is no Ukraine' …so there must be lots of examples for you to link to….
In bold quotes of Putins speech, the rest from the NY Times.
https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/you-have-understand-george-ukraine-not-even-country
Thanks, that was really very informative (the speech)..however quote is still up in the air…I have found a couple of times over the years quotes that I had been using, have turned out to be not quite what I had thought when origin and/or context was discovered, so I am a bit wary of taking them at face value until that can be established these days.
And I like you Red, but on this we disagree
Can I tease this out?
I don't dispute there may have been Nazis in Ukraine's Parliament at some stage but why does this justify an invasion by a neighbouring country?
Why are you posing such a simplistic question mickey ?.Afaik the russians have three basic demands they want a neutral ukraine with no missiles pointed at them ova the fence they want a guarantee ukraine will never join nato and they want the citizens of the donbass regions to be able to live in peace and safety .Cleaning out any natzis they might find is prob just a bonus for them imo
@mickysavage…Who has said on this site that the well known and much reported Ukrainian Far Right/Nazi problem was a justification for invading the Ukraine?…would you mind linking me to that thread…thanks.
Of course its not a good reason
Who would go to war to fight Nazis?
But maybe thats not the point Maybe some are pushing back on the idea that Russia is invading Ukraine because it cant afford to have a democracy on its border.Meaning Russians will want one too.And that we are defending a country that only wishes for democracy and freedom .I have no doubt that the ordinary people of Ukraine do want that, but they won't be getting it from Zelensky's govt
https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2022/1/30/putin-no-longer-fears-a-democratic
Ukraine is not even a flawed democracy, its an oligarchy., backed up by "volunteer "militia Its own interior minister Avakov has close ties to Azov.He's resigned now , to be replaced by one of his acolytes
https://meduza.io/en/feature/2021/07/15/the-powerful-and-unpopular
When you imprison the leader of an opposition party, and shut down 3 opposition media , can you call that a democracy.Banning at least 3 communist parties of different stripes?
Thats not what the invasion is principally about, and don't think for a minute the wests unprecedented support of another nation is anything to do with freedom and democracy
Nato would rethink it's involvement if Russia perpetrated a chemical attack
Hmm, seems to me a no brainer for Zelensky, possibly in Mariupol where foreign students might be expendable
https://caityjohnstone.medium.com/big-brave-keyboard-warriors-notes-from-the-edge-of-the-narrative-matrix-b12ec9a0a239
their fathers and grandfathers fought against the Nazis, there they will be trained by them
Not really – the alt-right stuff is not obligatory in Ukraine. It's the invaders who are pursuing some variation of Ilyin's Christian Fascism.
It's been apparent for some time which side you are on. Let us hope you find more joy in it than Philby did.
Stuart
https://www.peoplesworld.org/article/neo-nazis-active-in-ukraine-as-white-house-adds-3000-troops/
keep on being in denial , your life depends on it!!
Right back at you.
But at least you'll have something to complain about as Russian forces rout eastward.
It feels like a lot like some of the folk on this site aren't aware of the terrible risk and outcome of nuclear war.
Caitlin Johnstone has written so well on this subject in her article 'The Huge Gap Between How Serious Nuclear War Is And How Seriously It’s Being Taken.'
One excerpt
The whole of the article is here. I just wish more people were aware of this.
https://caitlinjohnstone.com/2022/03/16/the-huge-gap-between-how-serious-nuclear-war-is-and-how-seriously-its-being-taken/
Ronny Raygun is your go- to Endquote ?
fark….
Quoting Regan on Freedom is like quoting Jeffrey Dahmer on relationship advice.
You can’t make this shit up…Advantage (like Red Logic) have gone wrong…..real wrong.
[Who cares who quoted whom? Instead of attacking the messenger, and in this case the Author of the OP and another commenter who had not made a comment at all yet under this Post, attack the quote and argue why it’s wrong or why it has wrong consequences and in what context, for example. You seem so blinded by your bias that you lash out at anybody who says something that you vehemently object to, without hesitation, without nuance, and without self-control and self-moderation. You kill any chance of having a healthy debate and I’m coming to think that this is exactly your intention here. If you don’t change your ways here then you can leave and take your biased venom directed at others somewhere else. Since you’ve been warned many times before for this kind of behaviour of yours this is your final warning – Incognito]
All these years and you still cannot spell my handle correctly.
Mod note for you.
@Incognito….I do not think I am wrong in understanding that whom (in this case Ronald Ragan) a writer (in this case Advantage) chooses to quote from, and more importantly (in this case) use it as their final quote to underline their whole argument and/or position is very very important.
In other words, you do you understand that a quote is inextricably linked to the person who wrote/said it right?
Nope, a quote, even when attributed to the correct source of origin and the correct (and full) context, can be separated from the originator because of its intrinsic truth value. Furthermore, citing somebody whom you may find despicable doesn’t make the citing person despicable by default – there’s a very clear separation in space & time between these words and the people that uttered/wrote them, often with very different intentions too. For example, if I quote Stalin it doesn’t turn me into Stalin, I don’t become Stalin or even like Stalin – I may not even like Stalin. If you think so, it is you who’s making/creating the link/connection, which is neither real nor necessary, unless you want to lash out at me for quoting Stalin, in this example. Surely, you’re not saying that we must not quote from certain historical figures, erase them from our history books, and cancel everybody who dares to go against this moral imperative? Surely not??
Here’s the relevant passage from the OP:
It says it all.
Who cares who quoted whom?
The provenance of a quotation is essential, surely. If a charlatan (to use the kindest possible descriptor for that old terrorist) like Ronald Reagan can be quoted by the likes of "Advantage", then why not find and quote something similarly inspiring by Reagan's old allies and protégés such as Saddam Hussein, Augusto Pinochet, Saloth Sar, Suharto, or P.W. Botha?
[You’re interfering with moderation, which has a low threshold for banning – Incognito]
Mod note for you.
Please read the Mod note to Adrian Thornton (https://thestandard.org.nz/pick-a-side/#comment-1875619) and take note, as some of it it applies to you as well – play the ball, not the man.
Ok fair. I know when I saw Reagan there it kinda jolted me. (maybe Adrian too? ). As to my mind Reagan is not far removed from Nixon and Chile on the criminal scale. ( Iran-Contra Nicaragua for one . And I supported the Sandinistas . Situation seemed somewhat Republican Spain)
Maybe many other Presidents with quotes….. Anyway, allgood
Ad did say this:
I’m almost sorry that came from a Republican, but it’s still true.
It is true. Rather than concentrate on who said it you should concentrate on the idea.
If it is…'true'…can you define this …'freedom'?
Our Government is united in its determination to take all necessary measures in support of freedom and in defense of peace in southeast Asia.
What I would like to know is why would anyone use a quote about the meaning of freedom given by a man who was directly responsible for so much death/destruction and the actual destruction of freedom for so many humans right across South America…I mean are you actually serious when you say.."Rather than concentrate on who said it you should concentrate on the idea"….you must understand that the idea is meaningless when it comes from a fucking monster in the form of US president Ronald Reagan….maybe we would be better off if we concentrated on and remembered his victims….btw would you use a quote (even a really good one) on racial harmony if it originated from Himmler?
Reagan Was Behind “One Of The Most Intensive Campaigns Of Mass Murder In Recent History” https://www.democracynow.org/2004/6/8/journalist_allan_nairn_reagan_was_behind
Ronald Reagan Made Central America a Killing Field
https://jacobinmag.com/2021/05/greg-grandin-empires-workshop-latin-america
Time for a US Apology to El Salvador
https://www.thenation.com/article/archive/time-for-a-us-apology-to-el-salvador/
You seem unable to distinguish and separate the man and the ball. This explains your bad habit of aggressively attacking anybody here who says something you happen to strongly disagree with, especially the ones who do this more than once. You accuse them of all sorts with labels & boxes that you yourself construct in your head, mostly – “Extreme Centre”, FFS
You can see and call yourself “a proud Socialist” (with a capital, no less), but I see you as a menace here on TS, one that often fucks up political debate because of your personal rage against men with blue balls. TS is not the place to start your riot – go find another blog or start your own and call it AA (Adrian Attacks) or something snappy. You’ll be a real Hoot.
If you cannot play the ball without kicking the man then you’re in the wrong game and I suggest you leave the field before you’re given a red card (your favourite colour?) and sent off.
Perhaps I should apply Adrian's techniques to Adrian?
I'm pretty sure that I can get a educational response as I shovel, in a very personal fashion, a pile of derogatory labels on them in a escalatory fashion.
I have noticed that Adrian has a very thin skin, a almost complete inability to frame an actual argument, never actually answers questions aimed at the inadequete basis of what arguments they manage to cobble together, and a clearly shallow intellect.
After all I think it would be educational for them
I’d like to get the best out of others and myself (well, most of the time, as I’m very lazy). So, if you think it’s worth your while then by all means have a go – I definitely don’t want to keep Adrian all to myself because I’ve (lower-case) social tendencies too and am very generous or so I’ve been told by someone who loves me dearly (no, it’s not my cat).
Today I'm wearing a cat lovers tee-shirt. It features a wide-eyed black cat holding a large bloody knife and a caption saying "What?"
All cat owners will be aware of this trait in our domestic felines as you deal with the latest injury they have ‘accidentally’ inflicted on something.
Adrian is starting to draw this trait out in me at present.
Other examples here
Where can I buy one of these?
It is my M.I.L's birthday soon…and she has the same…fashion sense as…you.
Try the link in the comment as it is full of NZ and offshore links.
I don't buy clothes very often because I couldn't give a shit about what I look like. In fact I only really buy jeans (some company in the US that has hardwearing comfotable ones), shoes (New Balance extra wide), and underwear (shorts with as little elastine as possible). I do operate a veto over my partners choices.
I will accept "Programmer needs work, willing to do windows", but not "No, I will not fix your computer" because I prefer not to give te impression that I can at all.
The tee-shirt sense of humour is pretty strictly that of my partner and the poor buggers who seem to be compelled to give me presents and don’t want to do the simple staple of bottles of merlot or Tulamore Dew.
I mentioned multiple times in the post that Republican and National leadership had faced massive crises, as well as the social democratic sides.
Also mentioned that Labour and National should unite to face the situation we are in – which remarkably they have done several times this term.
My quotes were deliberately from both sides of the 'fence'.
Both sides of politics have faced national crises, neither side have monopolies on the answers, and it's likely both will need each other in short order.
We've just got through a 2-year national crisis with remarkable political unity.
Crikey we may even find next term that we need something resembling the 'war cabinet' of 1940-45.
Whether that triggered the predictables was immaterial; the scale and multiplicity of the crises requires coordinated political responses.
Well…..Not sure why, after I had already put my message as I thought I had covered it. But OK. Personally, "In My Opinion" I would never quote search from Reagan,Nixon,Bush…Hitler or Stalin or Indeed Putin, as the fact they once said something "good" or liked dogs…. would NOT whitewash their crimes….
If inciting massive crimes is the measure of banning who you can quote from, that also cuts out quoting from Marx, Trotsky, Lenin, Engels, Mao, Nehru, Castro, Mandela, Golda Meir, Althusser, Heidegger, Julius Caesar, Elizabeth 1st, most US and British elected leaders other than 1 Whig and 2 Labour PMs, all French PM's prior to Mitterand, Voltaire and bunches of anti-Jewish intellectuals, nearly all of Africa's postcolonial liberators, all the muriwhenua Musket War chiefs, Socrates, the Maccabees, and whole squadloads of 20th-century wannabees.
It kinda narrows who you can quote from.
Marx incited massive crimes? Anyway, It does come down to a personal choice . I'll leave this.
An excellent post that will annoy the piss out of all the anti-democratic, tyrant loving commenters that infest The Standard these days.
Here is my pick – neither Russia nor China as we know them now will exist as functional nations by the end of this decade. Both face intractable problems, rapidly declining demographics, crap geographies, an inability to secure access to global trade and sea lanes, and insular, sclerotic leadership elites. Not to mention an array of fiscal and economic challenges that will increasingly limit their ability to respond in a post-global world.
No-one can predict the precise trajectory of events, but it is impossible to ignore the sequence of perfect storms both nations are sailing into. In particular the entire political elite in Russia is drawn from their Soviet era intelligence services, a tiny inner circle of Putin cronies who have excluded everyone else from the levers of power and the bureaucracies. Once they are gone, either slowly through age or rapidly via a coup against them, there is no succession plan – which is always the fate of strongman polities – to fall into weakness and disorder after his passing.
But as one of the more chilling Caspian Reports suggested, the fall of a nuclear armed nation into disorder might present an unprecedented challenge the rest of the world simply cannot ignore.
Russia has already fallen in many ways, it’s a lot like Mexico, a veneer of government and civilization in Moscow, but lawlessness and warlord cartels ruling on the ground. After Putin’s demise it will be interesting to see if the extractive oligarchs, sclerotic/ corrupt military, or desperate masses will grasp power. It is surprising how much Russia relies on Western expertise and finished goods, as they have long suffered a brain drain. The sanctions will bite worse and worse the longer they continue.
China’s demise seems much less likely – but their increasingly hostile and autocratic stance, and the contempt they have shown to Western orgs attempting to deal with them in good faith – means that NZ will be facing a major rethink of that relationship very soon, and it will hurt.
Something of a problem should it come to that, given it wasnt until we developed China as a market that the economic decline from the loss of access to the UK was halted……and there dosnt appear another China on the horizon….two 'economic miracles' in one lifetime may be too much to expect.
I've long referred to the economic base in Russia as being a kind of kleptocracy. I think that it has a limited lifespan in anything like its current form.
Their armed forces performance in Ukraine directly reflects their economic issues. It is what happens when you do purchasing contracts on a basis of rewarding supporter robber barons without open processes. Reminds me of the US in the late 19th and early 20th century, or Britain in the early 17th century.
The military made that way look good for parades, at court, but have a piss-poor performance when tested.
China on the other hand has a working command economy. It has a debt issue, but that is almost entirely inside the massive local economy. So far they have had a pretty clear trend to letting failed enterprises happen. The exception seems to be with their local governments – many of which look like they require a solid and hard reorganisation at both a financial and personnel level.
China's big problems lie in demographics with a population age profile that looks like it will hit Japanese levels of economic growth stagnation within the next decade. This is obviously a key question for them, because you can see some very active attempts to build a IP economy and rise up the technology curve. I can't see them having particular issues in the coming decades apart from learning to live with demographic stagnation as Japan has had to do (and us as well).
No-one knows what their military is actually like these days. To date they haven't been adventurists, preferring instead to use diplomacy rather than stupidity. It still seems to be focused on defence rather than projection.
I suspect that their military are looking Ukraine with interest because it is displaying quite graphically the advantages of defence in depth under dispersed control. Just as it did in Afghanistan.
China and Russia will both remain relatively strong. They are, together, a manufacturing and resource powerhouse. Russia has many friends simply because they demonstrate a willingness to engage on behalf of those that are being stomped on by western imperialism. Syria was a game changer along with all the lies told by the west in support of the whitehelmets murder of innocent civilians. The west has always stood for the rich and powerful and has a long history of telling lies. Recall Mike Pompeos frank admissions.
The west scrapes so much profit of the backs of it's beleaguered workers that their empire is doomed to fall. The only question now is how much of the planet they will try to take with them. The article is correct in one respect however. The west has managed to leverage a bipolar world which will require the Bushian choice of either for or against us. Russia and China or US and for the present at least, Europe.
New Zealand has made its choice. I like many others here would say its the wrong one
"They are, together, a manufacturing and resource powerhouse."
Russia's economy has been limping along for years. It's GDP is about the same as Australia's, pretty good but not a superpower anymore. 145 million people, but per capita income is terrible. And now it's going to crash back to the bad old Soviet days with shortages and rationing and widespread suffering.
China's rise is indeed remarkable, but also nowhere near their PR claims. Much of its wealth is illusory, built on Ponzi schemes and money printing. China is dependent on the outside world for oil and food, and it needs rule of law and stability, else its vital supply lines are in danger, and that's an existential threat. Flooding and power cuts and ghost cities are just the beginning.
China has expressed the desire for a swift resolution to the conflict so it can resume its lucrative resource contracts with both parties.
WaPo | Opinion | Chinese ambassador: Where we stand on Ukraine
Hubris is strong with this one.
Which geopolitical point I made do you think is wrong?
Binary folk will feel the need to pick a side. Everyone else will resist the temptation. Since we now live in a multipolar world, it's just a question of whether to get real about that or not. To what extent are autocrats lined up on one side and democrats lined up on the other side? Look around you, can you see those lines??
However it does seem useful framing to engage the current situation with, so no harm in an essay providing talking points to highlight the potential for any such divide.
Xi is the man in the hot seat. His instincts will tell him to remain aligned with Putin. Realpolitik will tell him to triangulate instead. We wait to see him jump.
If he jumps into overt triangulation, the autocrat solidarity framing will evaporate. We will all move on, in relief…
Political debate can and should sustain nuance and consideration of multiple viewpoints. But war does not.
War is indeed binary much of the time but other nations aren't part of that. Since other nations are the vast majority, geopolitics is based on a triad when wars happen. Other nations being the third point of the triangle, from which point they can use leverage to influence the course of the war or help peace to break out.
In this nuclear era there are no 'other nations'. We are all at war, just the impact of it is for the moment extremely uneven.
One things for sure, if China moves on Taiwan, they will be supremely confident of outlasting any imposed international sanctions. They would also be confident such sanctions would instead cripple world trade, forcing trading nations back to the negotiation table. Let's hope the Russian experience tempers the dragons fire.
I imagine it has already. China has been much more successful than Russia in the late 20th century game of expansion through trade – and its historical experiences with conflict are not encouraging. When it is finally ready to take a bite of a failing superpower, the closest one will probably be Russia.
I wonder whether China's agreeing to accept Russia's dependence in the face of predictably destabilising sanctions at this point in time doesn't already represent such a bite.
The title of the post is almost looking for a fight.
Scary.
hmmm, let me see. Live in a system where i am largely free to do whatever I please and either support who I want or mouth off at whoever I choose without being directed to or imprisoned for.
Or a system where I can't do those pretty basic things that we take for granted daily
You have never been to Singapore have you ?
Many times. Great place. If you think you can compare Xi's China & HK and PUtin's russia to Singapore for freedom, you're a fucking idiot
Its not free in the sense NZ is .
They DO have a Putin style guided democracy
'In 2018, Singapore was ranked 151st by Reporters Without Borders in the Worldwide Press Freedom Index'
"The Act requires the chief editor or the proprietor of the newspaper to obtain a permit from the Minister in order to print or publish a newspaper in Singapore.
Section 10 of the Act gives the Minister the power to appoint the management shareholders of all newspaper companies and to control any transfers of such management shares.[13] It also gives the management shareholders, and by proxy the government, a minimum 66% majority in any votes regarding staffing decisions.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_rights_in_Singapore#
Clearly you were the useful idiot in the sense of western no nothing tourist
Last time i looked I could travel there visa free, set up a business with minimal red tape and no corruption, could watch the Hong Kong protests on CNN without them being blacked out with no audio. I also don’t recall Singapore having territorial aspirations nor do i recall them trying to propoganda their way out of overseas criticism of their government.
but yeah, one ranking means they’re as bad as Russia and china. Fucking idiot.
[If you act like an idiot you will be treated as one.
You’re clearly not reading the comments to which you’re responding, which makes you the idiot here. Keep up the idiotic insults and I’ll reserve you a spot where you’d feel right at home – Incognito]
Mod note for you.
Pointing out some factual rebuttal to a dictatorial apologist relying on one data point makes me an idiot?
ok.
More than 1 data point (?)
many many more in the link
But of course you are only interested in MAKING MONEY there
Criminal Law (Temporary Provisions) Act
Internment without trial under the Criminal Law (Temporary Provisions) Act has been used to deal with espionage, terrorism, organised crime, and narcotics.
and there is this
https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2021/country-chapters/singapore
' The government continued to use harsh and overly broad laws restricting speech and assembly to prosecute critical speech, or to label it as “fake news,” and order social media platforms to block content.'
Yep just like Putins Russia
This is so funny if it wasnt serious. An offence to hold a sign with a smiley face.
'Even solo protests are treated as assemblies under the Public Order Act. In November, Wham was charged with holding an unlawful assembly for holding up a cardboard sign with only a smiley face on it near a police station. '
And for Gay, lesbian and Transgender, just like Putins Russia
'The rights of lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) people in Singapore are severely restricted. '
Once again because they are a US ally and the government focuses on trade and business they ignore the government human rights records which has many comparisons to Putins Russia.
For whatever reason my reply is on the next string.
Again, you didn’t read my Mod note. Read it again.
You act like an idiot when you call others a “fucking idiot” without properly reading their comments.
ok?
Oh, I read it. I also have first hand knowledge of what ghost the basement neck beard doesn’t. I also know that taking one data point and extrapolating it to equate one of the best post world war 2 socialist stories that is Singapore to equal china and Russia makes you a fucking idiot
You've been asked to stop the abuse twice but continue regardless.
It is you who is the fucking idiot.
[I know you love to play Moderator here but as you can see, I have it in hand and dealt with it already. Do you want to hand over your message to DukeEll in person, because you already have one foot in the door and the other one in your mouth – Incognito]
Mod note for you.
Doesn't look like you have it in hand, and you haven't dealt with it because he's repeated the abuse for the third time, unsanctioned.
You've been harder on me if anything, not that that is a surprise. Moderation here is a mystery to me.
That was very close, thanks to SPC. You should really leave moderation to Moderators here and stop telling Moderators how to do their job, which is a bad habit of yours. Nothing mysterious about that if you’ve read the site’s Policy. My patience is zero now, so have a good night.
Check 6.2.
Thanks for the heads-up, SPC.
There are many people in the world unable to partake of the many everyday things that you take for granted. Just waking up in a warm house on a comfortable bed. Or even having breakfast. Do you even begin to understand what happens that your morning coffee appears and doesnt cost you the 40 or 50 bucks that it should? But of course you must have your freedom! And this is the problem, because its always about the preferences of people like yourself.
I for one am grateful that the uni-polar moment is over. What an absolutely horrific thing it was! Iraq! Libya! Afghanistan! Syria! Yemen! Enough is enough and some have certainly had enough of your, and people like you, prefernces. Russia and China are not keen to be on that list. I for one, support the resistance. The local extremists have once again been pumped up by the usual NED candidates just as they were nurtured in Afghanistan and Iraq and Libya and Syria. All in support of your petty little daily priviledges.
Its worth remembering that as part of the 'western' world our perspective is somewhat skewed.
40 nations have failed to condemn Russia at the UN, including China, India, and a sizeable number of African and central asian states….as decent chunk of the worlds population.
I imagine the African and ME countries are watching the outpouring of love and the enthusiastic welcome for Ukrainian refugees in Europe and thinking
They turned a blind eye to our children being starved and killed,.
They didn't welcome us when we tried to flee war,.their doors were closed .
Remember Calais and the closing of the camps?
They may be…although I do recall a sizeable number of Iraqis, Syrians and Afghanis being accommodated in neighbouring countries not to mention more distant places (i.e europe) as well.
Id suggest though that (as usual regardless of state) perceived national interest will be the greater influence.
Under Merkel
Remember Russia accepting Syrian refugees?
//
"According to the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Russian Federation, in 2018, there were still only two recognized refugees from Syria throughout the territory of Russia, and the number of those holding temporary asylum status decreased from 1128 people (as for January 1st, 2018) to 826 (as for January 1st, 2019) (a decrease of almost 30%). In other words, at the end of 2018, only 828 Syrian citizens had asylum in Russia."
https://refugee.ru/dokladyi/syrian-refugees-in-russia-a-review-of-the-situation-in-2018/
https://www.unhcr.org/russian-federation.html
https://www.statista.com/statistics/740233/major-syrian-refugee-hosting-countries-worldwide/
Whataboutism Joe.Comparisons of the European welcome of Ukrainian refugees vs African /ME refugees does not translate to an approval of Russia
It does seem peculiar that Russia is so reluctant to take Syrian refugees. The graph we see at that third website Joe linked to shows Russia doesn't even make it onto the page as of the end of 2020.
And consider this from 2.5 years ago:
Russia's stance seems to be bomb the shit out of the Syrians then keep out all the survivors who try to come in…
How many Yemen refugee applications accepted by US
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jun/27/yemen-refugees-usa-trump-asylum
The 'West' is 10% of the world's population.
https://www.cpib.gov.sg/press-room/press-releases/singaporemaintains#:~:text=Singapore%20retained%20its%20high%20score,tied%20with%20Sweden%20and%20Norway.
4th least corrupt country
https://singaporelegaladvice.com/law-articles/right-to-freedom-of-speech-and-expression-singapore
Hardly throwing whole protests into prison.
Draw some more long bows Spanish archer.
Singapore is not china nor Russia. Fucking idiot
[You quite like calling people (fucking) idiots and it takes a special kind of fool to keep repeating it even after a Mod warning. You can’t even reply to the correct comment/commenter and your insults are now spooking others as well.
See you on April Fool’s Day – Incognito]
Am guessing that is a reply to something else
Mod note for you.
Freedom of Speech is allowed to be proscribed and is especially to opposition politicians during election campaign
The Protection from Online Falsehoods and Manipulation Act (POFMA)
Human Rights Watch
https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2021/country-chapters/singapore
With trillions and trillions of unpayable debt washing around the world,the future is definitely inflation…that's the only way it can be repaid.
China and the U.S have the most urgent need.
The Saudis are signaling that the end of the petro dollar is nigh….and that has been the backbone of U.S hegemony.
Any perceived threat to it has also been a catalyst for… war.
The 'pick a side' call reminds me of Bush…'you're either with us…or against us'!
All those countries jealous of freedom and democracy U.S style ,needed a good lesson.
People are all the same,regardless of their language,culture and ethnic differences…they all want to live in peace and prosperity enjoying life with family and friends.
As for a' New World Order'….the present one needs ….a tune up.
Definitely inflation?….or default and deflation.
Deflation when Govts are running deficits increases real debt servicing costs and debt to GDP ratio's .
Stable employment is the vital factor that needs to be maintained .
Default in the property sector looks inevitable as price corrections occur.How severe is hard to ascertain?
The factors at play with property becoming such a large % of GDP has created an almost 'too big to fail' situation but there are signs that it will.
The next 5 years will indeed be 'very interesting times'.
Deflation (full stop) increases real debt servicing costs irrespective.
Stable employment cannot be sustained unless the government commits to an employment guarantee AND that employment can maintain productive output.
The defaults will not be confined to the property sector, indeed the declining discretionary spend in hospitality is looking likely to create the first domino to fall….and how many of those businesses have secured their lines of credit against real estate?….its a Minsky Moment looking for a place to happen.
Looks like my edit has disappeared into the ether….so will add here.
Stable employment cannot be sustained unless the government commits to an employment guarantee AND that employment can maintain productive output….and NZ dosnt do much in the way of productive output.
NZ employment levels have done fine here for 2 political terms.
We need more workers everywhere.
The only useful guarantee government can generate is to bring in the right skilled people.
We'll do our utmost to ensure that we keep them.
There was a good reason for my edit (20 billion of them at most recent count)…it has often been noted that we cannot make a living selling houses to each other.
It looks as though even the UK have had a guts-full of the US hegemon. Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe ‘looking forward to new life’ after the money that has been owed to Iran has finally been repaid. This goes against the US 'rules'.
As for all the "democracy good, the others bad – what a load of crap. Norm Kirk sum it up well when he said, “Basically there are four things that matter to people: they have to have somewhere to live, they have to have food to eat, they have to have clothing to wear, and they have to have something to hope for.”
Democracy sure isn't delivering that to those that need it most anywhere in the world, despite the earnest claims to the contrary.
Actual democracy is the rule of the people, and that means socialism! What we have now is unregulated hyper capitalism, that has turned democracy into a sham ceremony, undermining and hacking democracy in favour of the 1% , and keeping the 99% in wage slavery and penury to unaccountable transnational banks
I think it's quite likely the government will start fraying more noticeably at the edges under the weight of the problems nationally and globally. Covid has such a long way to run yet, lets not forget in China it's hasn't really started yet, and if they cannot stop it – I don't think they will – will it trigger a much more severe global financial fallout.
As for everything else, in the end everything is about money, not 'freedom'.
The USA will fight to the death to preserve the dollar’s special status, what then-French Finance Minister Valéry Giscard d’Estaing famously called America’s “exorbitant privilege”
https://thecradle.co/Article/columns/7975
It's a significant strategic move, but I found this bit from your source entertaining:
One foresees another action-man movie starring Tom Cruise with his grey hair dyed.
A post full of hyperbole!
The war in Ukraine needs to be opposed because of the misery being inflicted by a bully. It still doesn't mean that we need to line up with the other bullies of NATO.
The list of problems facing NZ is real – It is called "Chickens coming home to roost". Successive governments have avoiding fixing the problems and the pressure has been building up. This government is no different.
Blazer, I'm an economic ignoramus
Who are all these debts owed to?
For instance, here in NZ, where has all the covid money come from?
AFAIK the NZ Govt issues bonds that the Reserve Bank buys or sells on the markets.
This form of Q.E is often an accounting device involving creation and redemption of bonds, but allocations are made to private banks ,who are supposedly meant to provide more credit to customers to stimulate economic activity.
It can like the Key Govt did, as has been the convention, borrow offshore as well.
Debt needs to be repaid and the Reserve Bank handles monetary policy re interest rates and inflation targets and the Govt dictates fiscal policy…taxation,revenues and expenditure.
Other people can explain it far better than I.
I regard it as a 'magic show'.
Thanks Blazer and Pat ….
https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/d30
Are you in Kiwisaver Francesca? If so theres a good chance some if it is owed to you.
Well yes I am.I have left some of my savings in there , I've been retired for 5 years
Thankfully, it looks like Putin may be near ready to do a deal:
https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-parts-of-possible-peace-deal-with-russia-close-to-being-agreed-lavrov-claims-12567460
Putin's big problem is that his ground offensive isn't really achieving anything militarily at the moment, and it is costing huge amounts, along with all the sanctions.
The best he can do is shell civilian areas which plays out terribly on world media, and is ghastly on so many levels. Too much more of this, and even China may have to stop holding its nose as it could be seen as complicit and enabling in what is happening.
So, he is fast being put into a position where he has to do some sort of deal that he can sell as a "victory'' to his own people.
Russia is going to come out of this much weaker. Its military has been shown up to be ineffective rather than feared. Many of the organisations that have pulled out probably won't return. And Europe is making longterm decisions about moving away from Russian energy.
The immediate beneficiary of all this will be China. I think they will end up having a much weaker Russia as a vasal state; a huge energy fuel pump for China. But Russia will have to sell their energy at a bargain because their won't be many other takers.
But, longer term, I think China will not do well out of this either. The world is starting to see the dangers of having so much reliance on potential future enemies. So, it could be that nations start trying to be more self reliant, or doing business amongst responsible nations rather than potential powder kegs.
Excellent observations. Indeed it could be somewhat tartly said that if Russia was to win Xi would invade to the south into Taiwan, and if Putin loses he might go north into Siberia.
But either way Russia is finished – this is their last gasp. The incredible, unexpected Urkainian resistance now means there is no plausible scenario, short of an immediate palace coup, that ends well for them. In the short term their oil and gas income will plunge, and in the medium term these events will only accelerate the global drive toward energy independence from fossil fuels. The only other commodity they really have of value is wheat – and even that trade has become deeply problematic.
I agree that the immediate impact is that Russia will become a vassal state of China, but in this China itself runs a considerable risk of itself becoming isolated from the world. Sentiment is already tilting against them, and while the impact will be less sudden, the decoupling of the world from a fundamentally fragile and now unreliable Chinese economy will like pick up pace.
Agreed.
Russia's way of doing war is so old-school.
It works fine against some of the weaker opponents they have had. But, as we are seeing, motivated opponents with modern weaponary cause them real problems, even if it is at the smaller arms end of the scale.
Nato would make short work of the Russian military if it ever came to that.
The only real ace Russia has is the nuclear threat. But that has the problem of mutually assured destruction.
And 'Shock and awe' was … what?
I compare the scenes of devastation in Bagdad and see nothing as extensive as that in Ukraine.
Encircling cities and laying siege to them is medieval tactics, but with modern weapons.
Russia can't lose.
This is a needless war.
Ukraine can't win,should have agreed to the terms that they will end up agreeing to….weeks…ago.
Russia has already lost. Ukraine has already won.
Do some study on this before you make empty comments. Ukraine is a huge country. Russia doesn't have enough forces there to hold it.
Even if (that is a big if) that they manage to take Kiev and the larger cities, they will have a powerful ongoing insurgency to deal with for years. It will be like Afghanistan on steriods for them.
They are already bleeding dry, and are having to call up the likes of Syrian mercenaries and begging China for help, including food for their military.
So, it is an embarrassing shambles for them. Nothing like a win.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/13/us/politics/russia-china-ukraine.html
https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-701150
You do some study.
Russia wants to ensure Ukraine does not join NATO and represent a threat on their border.
They have never said they want to occupy it.
Is Ukraine even a sovereign nation.?
We do know in 2020 it was rated 118 out of 180 countries on a corruption scale, and is not a democracy .
Your american news sources are predictable.
Wonderful that you can call a Ukraine win and a Russian loss.Laughable.
Yes that's the absolute last thing they will want to do. From what I've seen they are doing a minimum of damage. Footage on news have shown a number of small devastated areas but also a background with large areas untouched. It's not razing cities to the ground as some would have it.
War is another form of diplomacy. It's tragic for Ukraine, Russia, and Europe in general that the Minsk accords didn't succeed but like other posters here I hope that talks to stop fighting continue
Former top Pentagon advisor Col. Doug Macgregor on Russia-Ukraine war
This is a long video, but Macgregor gives his take mostly in the first 20 minutes.
https://youtu.be/NFngc_8RiVc
Max and Aaron do have a thing for vile tRumpians like Macgregor.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/12/politics/kfile-douglas-macgregor-west-point-board/index.html
LOL.
In the unlikely ''if'' Ukraine was to join NATO, by definition, it couldn't be a threat to Russia as a part of NATO, as NATO is a defense pact not an aggression pact.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO
As far as I know NATO has never invaded anyone.
And you haven’t defined “winning”.
I say Ukraine is winning because either, they can keep the fight going for longer than Russia can afford to pay for it.
Or, Russia ends up with a motivated insurgency situation that will bleed them dry over time.
Killing lots of civilians isn’t “winning”. All it does is make the populace hate them all the more.
The other thing is that Ukraine is miles ahead in the PR war on the world stage. Zelensky looks like a hero whereas Putin looks like a nasty thug.
The more aggressive Russia becomes, the more cheerfully Nato would put it down.
If Putin resorts to tactical nukes or chemical weapons in Ukraine, Nato may well remove some of their capacity to do so by conventional means.
???What was Libya? a no fly resolution approved by the SC morphed into an all out attack on Gadaffi, souring Russia enormously.Which NATO country had been attacked?
That country was destroyed , it's gold stolen , and to this day there are slave markets .Great work Nato! Still don't know which European member of Nato was attacked
Try again. The UN Security council authorised a no-fly zone and the firing of missiles.
Some NATO countries were involved, but it wasn't NATO as in the alliance attacking.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/mar/17/libya-un-security-council-air
Because it had UN Security council approval, this was a legal operation. Quite unlike what Putin is doing at the moment.
The no fly zone authorisation was primarily to prevent the Libyan government using its air force in civilian areas against armed resistance (by preventing its use in the "civil war".
It did not authorise use of NATO air power against Libyan government ground forces.
The UN point was to prevent either side winning and thus foster talks/diplomacy.
If NATO had been responsible, then a no fly zone may have been established in Syria. Again fostering talks/diplomacy.
'As far as I know NATO has never invaded anyone.'
Yes but as you display everyday…your knowledge is very limited.
Try researching NATO's role in the breakup of Yugoslavia…and educate yourself.
I rather think that bombing Belgrade would be considered someting invasion like. Hmm and Libya?? I spose you would count Iraq and Afghanistan as "peace keeping" . Thats quite a twist for occupation forces. I wonder if Russia could get away with that in Ukraine once the fighting dies down. Its quite mind boggling how determined people are to be willfully blind over Nato agression.
That'd be news to Serbia.
China is still in play if Xi wants continued support from an expanding middle class.
China only gets rich trading with the West.
But thats become the very obvious point. Its not all about money. This is reinforced by the inability of Russia to gain entry into either Europe or Nato. And not for the want of trying. The realization is that the money and power are reserved to those with certain attributes which are not easily defined. But it is clear to both Russia and China that their aspirations of a strong nation that reserves the fruits of their productive effort for the enjoyment of their own people disquaifies them. It is very clear that China will not be peeled away from Russia. After all, they have their own "Ukraine" to come. Interestingly, this time the US will be arguing that secession is legitimate as opposed to Crimea and LDNR. I really cant see why there is so much belief that China will rescue the US. Russia got rock solid guarantees after the Olympics.
So what is Russia's new deal that isn't pretty much like the original one. The problem is that Ukraine has had to go through all this pain on the back of empty implied promises from 'the club'.
All that was required was for Ukraine to act as a buffer, stop attacking Donbass, which seems to have had more civilian fatalities than Ukraine and agreeing with some sort of good neighbourly accommodations. Even now, the 'Empire' is more intent of feeding arms rather than feeding people, no doubt to satisfy the military industrial complex's insatiable demands. The fact that NZ has noisily bent over to take it where it hurts is an affront to peacemakers of all political stripes.
All that was required was for the people of Ukraine to choose their own future. First they chose it with elections, now they choose it with their lives.
History tells a slightly different story if you use two eyes.
Only if you still have eyes left.
You could always look at the world through…..5 eyes!
I pick Russia and China. Much more peaceful countries than the United States and New Zealand will be much more screwed economically if can't sell it's products to China. In fact, most of the world including all of South America and even Germany are reliant on selling their products to China. If we go with the US and all its other Western white buddies, we will be in the minority of the world.
I suggest you stand in downtown Mariupol right now and tell this to people. Let us know how you get on.
Where were you when the Doctors without Borders hospital in Kunduz Afghanistan was bombed over over some time?
And more recently
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/12/us/civilian-deaths-war-isis.html
The civilian death toll in Iraq from its long war is uncountable and all because of GW Bush said 'God told him to end the tyranny' and Cheney told him their oil would pay for it
Two wrongs don't make a right. Just because someone did something bad previously is no justification for doing something bad now.
Of course its not right. Just saying where were the others before when 'their side' was doing it. yes they can still be condemned even now
Thats right they arent even aware of the countries destroyed and civilian death toll from western military actions in last 20 years. Its a blur and heh the bandwagon has arrived in town and they want to be part of it – like the useful idiots for the parliament protest.
What possible reason would the US have to bomb a Doctors without Borders hospital ? Deliberately targeting civilians is not part of US military doctrine. It is for Russia.
Fog of War or something. It was deliberate in the sense they werent going for the terrorist camp next door and aim was off. It WAS the target
https://www.msf.org/kunduz-hospital-attack
And these is a number of others in Iraq , just from MSF in 2014
'Intense shelling and aerial assaults in northern and central Iraq have struck hospitals and other medical facilities,
https://reliefweb.int/report/iraq/iraq-hospitals-destroyed-air-strikes
Its like airliner shootdowns , its been done by
US . USS Vincennes in Gulf, Iran Air
Ukraine in Black Sea Russian airliner travelling from Tel Aviv
Israel over Sinai, Libyan Air 727 lost in sandstorm intending Cairo, non compliance meant they were deliberately destroyed.
Im sure in response you will do your Galloping Gosman non sequitors
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gish_gallop
Guess they are not white so in the West really cares, right?
US/UK illegal war….
Iraq study estimates war-related deaths at 461,000
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-24547256
Forgotten victims of 9/11: The 363,000 civilians killed during the War on Terror
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/911-civilian-casualties-iraq-afghanistan-b1912816.html
“For Koreans of a certain age, total destruction by the United States isn’t just some abstract threat, it is a hellish reality that ranks among the most egregious crimes of a century that witnessed some of the most appalling barbarity in human history.”
https://www.commondreams.org/views/2020/06/25/korean-war-and-us-total-destruction-began-70-years-ago
“Air Force general Curtis LeMay, head of the strategic air command during the Korean War, estimated that the American campaign killed 20 per cent of the population. “We went over there and fought the war and eventually burned down every town in North Korea,”
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/asia-pacific/unknown-to-most-americans-the-us-totally-destroyed-north-korea-once-before-1.3227633
There are many there that will be well pleased when Russia defeats the azov batallion which has made Mariupol its place to stand. You can attempt to water down who and what the azov batallion is but you can not deny that Mariupol is where they are. And the reason? They went there originalky to cleanse the city and take it back from the separatists. They are not known as pleasant people and not averse to all kinds of dirty tricks. So yes, talking to the locals about their experiences would certainly be enlightening.
Given your high anxiety over maybe 2,000 -3,000 Nazis in Ukraine, I'm guessing you're frantically rooting for the invasion and crushing of Russia. Right?
@RedLogix…"Given your high anxiety over maybe 2,000 -3,000 Nazis in Ukraine, I'm guessing you're frantically rooting for the invasion and crushing of Russia. Right?"…Wrong.
Are the 'Nazi's" in Russia officially integrated into its military and even allowed to retain their Waffen SS styled insignia?…arethe Nazi’s in Russia integrated into its Military hierarchy and Police command ?
The Presence of Neo-Nazis in Ukraine
"It was the Azov Battalion, which was incorporated into the National Guard in 2014…..Since the Azov Battalion is fully integrated into the Ukrainian armed forces, it would take targeted efforts by US forces in Ukraine to ensure it does not receive the same weapons and support as other units. Today, in the midst of a war and a huge influx of US military aid, that would seem to be almost impossible."
….and RedLogix you might want to keep this in mind when you down play the Far-Right in the Ukraine…"Violent foreign extremists with links to Azov include Brenton Tarrant, who massacred 51 worshippers at a mosque in Christchurch in New Zealand in 2019, and several members of the US Rise Above Movement who were prosecuted for attacking counter-protesters at the Unite the Right rally in Charlottesville in 2017. Other Azov veterans have returned to Australia, Brazil, Germany, Italy, Norway, Sweden, the UK and other countries, according to the Soufan Center."
https://www.fairobserver.com/region/europe/medea-benjamin-nicolas-js-davies-ukraine-war-russia-ukranian-neo-nazi-fascists-azov-battalion-89292/
Ukraine’s neo-Nazi problem
“including Interior Minister Arsen Avakov, who has close ties to Azov leader Andriy Biletsky, as well as Sergei Korotkykh, an Azov veteran who is now a high-ranking police official”
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cohen-ukraine-commentary-idUSKBN1GV2TY
Far-Right Group Made Its Home in Ukraine’s Major Western Military Training Hub
https://www.illiberalism.org/far-right-group-made-its-home-in-ukraines-major-western-military-training-hub/
I am on record here as regarding both the far-right and far-left as equally vile and reprehensible. You picked the far-left.
I picked my side long ago pal….I have always been and will always be a proud Socialist..
…..and you picked the Extreme Centre, that most selfish, self centered and vile of all ideologies, the ideology that is burning our own planet down to the ground as we speak.
Thanks Adrian. We could also deflect with whatabout the far right in the uk. But as you correctly point out nobody except the Ukraine military actively arms, trains, and incorporates these thugs into the military with their own very special ideology and insignia. So Red is just running apologist for extremists.
This drone footage shows the sort of "peace'' that Russia offers.
Total annihilation until there is nothing living to fight back.
If that is what you want, I suggest you move there.
So what is your solution?
We need diplomacy to prevent nuclear war, don't we?
Fallujah 2004. But its not a problem when they dont look you. Or many other ME cities
Fallujah was horrific. James Mattis is a war criminal. Australian General Jim Molan also had a hand in this.
If you care nothing about human rights or democracy, they are great.
Russia denies that gay people exist, arrests protestors en masse, and attacks peaceful neighbours on the thinnest pretext. Average annual income is $5000 USD – and much worse now the Ruble has collapsed. Life expectancy is low and alcoholism is a leading cause of death. Russia is an open air prison of its people, and Ukraine no longer wants to be enslaved
https://euromaidanpress.com/2016/07/04/russia-was-and-remains-a-prison-house-of-nations-moscow-writer-says/
China – Tiananmen Square, Tibet, The Long March, Xinjian Uygur concentration camps, betrayal of Hong Kong promises, live organ harvesting, world’s biggest polluter, world’s biggest and most destructive fishing fleet… Dragons are not good.
" Russia is an open air prison of its people"
" As of May 2021, the United States had the highest prisoner rate, with 639 prisoners per 100,000 of the national population. El Salvador, Turkmenistan, Thailand, and Palau rounded out the top five countries with the highest rate of incarceration"
"Mass incarceration in the United States is a civil rights issue. Organizations such as the Prison Policy Initiative argue that incarceration dehumanizes poor people and minorities, damages already marginalized communities, and often jails people for small-scale offenses such as marijuana possession in countries where weed is illegal. Additionally, evidence exists that a high incarceration rate does not actually increase public safety—a stance often validated by data on crime rate per country, murder rates, rape statistics, and gun violence per country. Nor, for that matter, does capital punishment, commonly known as the death penalty."
https://www.statista.com/statistics/262962/countries-with-the-most-prisoners-per-100-000-inhabitants/
oh no that's right….Russia bad….must remember Russia bad, how could I forget…Russia bad.
America is a flawed democracy. But you can still criticise the government and vote meaningfully there.
Russia is ruled by a clique of old KGB thugs, and life there is cheap. It is fucked for the foreseeable future. Putin is taking it back to “fortress Russia” and the darkest days of the Soviet Union.
https://www.politico.eu/article/economic-meltdown-russia-putin-soviet-repression/
"America is a flawed democracy. But you can still criticise the government and vote meaningfully there"…you are joking….aren't you?
Major Study Finds The US Is An Oligarchy
"The U.S. government does not represent the interests of the majority of the country's citizens, but is instead ruled by those of the rich and powerful, a new study from Princeton and Northwestern universities has concluded"
https://www.businessinsider.com/major-study-finds-that-the-us-is-an-oligarchy-2014-4?r=AU&IR=T
The Two-Party Duopoly
https://www.secondratedemocracy.com/the-two-party-duopoly/
“Show me a man that gets rich by being a politician, and I'll show you a crook.”
Harry Truman …….
Get elected to Congress and get rich: study
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-congress-wealth-idUSN1330776120080313
The U.S Congress would not be fond of that Truman quote Adrian!
American' exceptionalism' alright…. homelessness is a huge problem too these days-over 40 million on food stamps.
Like I said, the USA is flawed. But still a democracy. And still holding to the First Amendment.
Basic stuff which is unavailable to the victims of Putin's totalitarian gang.
Great. A translation by guy who wants us to see what true fascism looks like. You don't see any problems with this? You do realise that official translations of all Putin speeches are available?
I wonder if they conveniently elide the bits about purging traitors and wiping out dissenters like insects.
Gee. I wonder if they were added by a guy who wants to prove the fascist nature of Putin. I mean he even says so! And the beauty is that neither you nor I understand Russian! Youve really gone down the hole if you think Putin said dissenters will be wiped out like insects!
He says it from 1:54 in the video above.
Heil Putiner.
Define the opposition as less than human. Jews were bacillus, bloodsuckers, vermin, and parasites.Tutsi were cockroaches.
It occurred to me that you have gotten lost on the internet – it is after all a very confusing place. However I just found the perfect website for you to hang out at. Bye.
https://russia-insider.com/en
I found the official translation on the Kremlin website.
So Rob, looks like you were right. I've responded to myself because your reply button isnt showing. It is on my phone but that wont let me copy and paste
Thanks Sub.
I would point out that taken in the context of the whole speech, it is easy enough to see that these comments are directed at the wealthy elite who choose to place their loyalties with making money in the west. The main course for the speech is to outline the methods of support for those poorest and most vulnerable to the effects of sanctions. It pointedly states that efforts to reduce poverty will still be a priority even in the face of sanctions.
Unusual whales investigates US politicians wall street activity. They consistently beat all the professional players in the market. I wonder how that is? Of course, the Ukraine war has offered up huge opportunities – but only for those in the know who act before word gets out
Rap on Ukraine
The Western Powers are loosing their grip,
Their Empires are starting to crumble,
The Political leaders are old and decrepit,
Even their words are of a bumble and mumble.
The Military, the Nato Alliance they subscribe to,
Is eating the tax payers money,
The have and the have nots divide is expanding,
Future for the upcoming is grey and unfunny.
Home ownership is unattainable,
Rich greedy investors are squeezing the markets,
The growing legions of the homeless,
Scramble for cardboard to use as their carpets.
The system is based on arms sales and wars,
They need to conquer more of others lands,
Corporate News spews in a warmongering ways,
This is the scenario for Geopolitical plans.
Ukraine is the pawn being used by the West,
They funded a coup with weapons and money,
Proding and poking the great Russian Bear,
Who didn't think this was any near funny.
The Bear had constantly been warning the UN,
About the NATO expansion of weapons for war,
But the deaf ears of the UN did not listen,
This then for conflict and the heart of the core.
The West was aghast as Russia invaded Ukraine,
They didn't really think that they would,
But now with an over the top sanction response,
The West now is short of oil gas and food.
Ukraine abandoned by a Paper -Tiger West,
All Western Nations complicit in this tradgedy,
Guilty of allowing themselves to be bullied,
By a Hegmonic America of a war based strategy.
Where will it end, how will it end, when will it end,
This world full of money power and greed,
The ordinary people planet wide seem peaceful,
But it's a World without Money the thing that they Need.
I have many friends in both Ukraine and Russia and we communicate daily on the current war. Both sides have perfectly rational explanations as to how this all evolved, who is to blame and how it will end.
My Russian friends naturally blame the US and Nato. The Ukrainians blame Putin.
Funny thing is that until recently the Ukrainians regarded themselves as Russian. They are ethnic Russian, spoke Russian as their first language and had many family and friends living in Russia. Now one said "we will kill every Russian who comes to Ukraine with a gun – we hate them".
One friend from Odessa is raising money in Germany to buy equipment for the Home Defence Force – they have plenty of guns but need boots, body armour etc. Even nappies. I have been happy to donate to his fund. Their sons have all joined the armed resistance but the "old" guys have stayed – all are prepared to fight.
My point is that this is not a matter of black and white. The government they elected was overturned by a US led coup. Their government is totally corrupt. Their wealth has been a happy hunting ground for US politicians and their offspring but they have a huge nationalistic fervour that was unexpected to me.
I caution against this whole anti – Putin vitriol. Russians see this war as a fight they must have to survive, calling Putin a madman is hugely simplistic.
Hugely hypocritical too grumpy given the numbers of governments destabilised to be replaced with american approved dictators by a succession of US presidents over the last 70yrs .stating with the shah of iran in the early 50s Multiple times america has fomented coups which divide countries and set the inhabitants against each other .
Ukraine is just the latest inferno lit by the US that we know about imo .
Yes, Iraq, Syria, etc. etc…..but for all their practice they had not been able to develop the precision bombing and bombardment that enables them to destroy a hospital and only kill 3 people!
Common sense like this needs to prevail instead of warmongering.
Jaw, jaw….not war, war.
"My Russian friends naturally blame the US and Nato."
If their sole source of "truth" is state-controlled media, and independent sources have been shut out, then what more would you expect.
They do not have a media blackout.They have the internet.Many more of them can speak and read English than we in the west can understand Russian
They read the Guardian, the Independent, the New York Times.
Sure, there are sources Russians can find if they really want to look for them. But Russia is making it as hard as possible for them to find anything independent or balanced.
“Russia clamped down harder Friday on news and free speech than at any time in President Vladimir V. Putins 22 years in power, blocking access to Facebook and major foreign news outlets, and enacting a law to punish anyone spreading false information about its Ukraine invasion with up to 15 years in prison.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/04/world/europe/russia-censorship-media-crackdown.html
So, Russia is trying to black it out as much as they possibly can. Why would they do that do you think?
Of course they are……war these days is as much about propaganda messaging as anything. So, the NYT is upset about Putin cracking down on "false information"? This is the same news organisation railing about the widespread "mis" and "dis" information in their own country.
They are all the same. The first casualty of war is the truth.
pretty much like RT and Sputnik being banished, and finding it very difficult with Google etc to find the Russian point of view on the internet .Those who know their way around can find them, but the insane pile on at present means that anyone who doesn't denounce Russia/Putin is a disgusting human being who should be muted for the sake of public safety.
Russell Brand , who incidentally absolutely excoriates Russia for invading Ukraine
points out the dangers of censorship
If you think you are not being propagandised heavily right now , you are remarkably gullible
Brand was OK when he was talking about self development and well being. But after hanging out with Joe Rogan too much, he fell down the rabbit hole of anti-vax, anti-everything in western culture. The dude is good at emotional polemics and FUD. His contribution to politics was telling young people not to vote, the system is rigged, give up.
He's an idiot with a very high verbal ability but very low on self reflection and critical thinking.
The Russian media clamo down is a tit for tat response. RT and Sputnik have been deplatformed in Europe and the US. The Russian view has been cesored so they have retaliated. I mean, fairs fair
All my Russian friends are Engineers, either Electrical or Nuclear. They are very fluent English speakers and get information from a huge range of sources. They are certainly not people who rely on State media – the same cannot be said for this country apparently.
Oh the irony!
You suck up U.S propaganda like a…sponge…all your links are american slanted.
And people in the West are hearing a balanced perspective??
Pick a side? What a pathetic post. I pick humanity and those that support world peace and negotiation over competing imperialist countries and the arms industry.
The writer clearly endorses US Imperialism, which after Vietnam, Chile, Cambodia, Central America, Libya and Afghanistan, needs to stay in international time out for a lot longer yet rather than starting WWIII with an ill considered Ukrainian no fly zone.
Comment of the thread.
Thanks for the humanitarian response.
We need this.
Not McCarthyite Russophobic hysteria if we are to avoid WW3.
This is my prediction for the conflict – The Russiand and Ukrainians will sign a peace agreement in two to three weeks maximum.
The terms of the peace agreement will be that Ukraine will institute some measures which will mean it remains a neutral country and not be able to join a military alliance. However it will be able to have it's own armed forces and receive support for it from whoever it likes. There may be some third nation guarantees of Ukrainian sovereignty as well.
The Crimea will likely be recognised as part of Russia as it was prior to Khrushchev “gifting” it to Ukraine during the 1950’s..
The Donbas will likely be demilitarised on both sides and have UN peacekeepers. The region will have at least one independence/autonomy referendum scheduled for a few years in the future to determine what happens.
As a result of the agreement Russian forces will immediately leave Ukraine and Russia may potentially pay some compensation for damage.
The reason for the is that the Russian army is taking a hammering at the moment and simply does not have enough troops and equipment and the means to supply them for longer than a few more weeks. This coupled with the upcoming spring Rasputitsa will make it even more of stalemate.
There is no way Russia can win so Putin will be on the look out of a face saving way to get out. The Ukrainians have been very clever in providing an opportunity to do this by them bad mouthing NATO over the refusal to implement a no-fly zone over Ukraine.
I suspect you are correct. There is no way Putin can win. However there is now little possibility that Crimea and Donbass can go back to co-existing in Ukraine.
Depends of whether you want to subscribe to a 'democratic western' concept of winning – like demolish all and then starve the survivors to death, Russia probably won't win. However, if Russia achieves the aim of getting a buffer from the most vicious and dishonest empire in history, both Ukraine and Russia are winners. Added to that, if Donbass and Crimea can exercise choice as to where they feel they belong instead of being into being bombed into subservience by NATO, as has already been done, all the better.
"However, if Russia achieves the aim of getting a buffer from the most vicious and dishonest empire in history, both Ukraine and Russia are winners."
I really don't understand that. Are you referring to NATO as "vicious and dishonest"?
As I pointed out earlier, NATO is a defensive alliance. So what has Russia got to fear? NATO will only take direct action if they are attacked. Look at how hard they are trying not to get directly involved at the moment.
So, if Russia doesn't attack NATO, NATO won't attack them.
"NATO is a defensive alliance" only in your distorted view of the world. Don't you bother to do any reading or research before hitting you keyboard? Silly question, of course you don't.
Yes, that is about what I think as well. The Russians can't afford to keep this going, whereas Ukraine can.
The more footage comes out of innocent citizens being bombed, the more the rest of the world will condemn Russia and be less likely to do business with them in the future.
In short, Russia can't afford to keep this going much longer, and is not in a strong negotiating position. So, Ukraine should be able to negotiate a favourable deal, but one that allows Putin to save face as well.
Jesus, what have you been drinking?
"He added that Russian forces are in a 'dangerous position' which is likely to deteriorate in the coming weeks without a major pause in fighting – meaning that it is vital that the Ukrainians continue to battle hard…..
The strength and responsiveness of Ukrainian defenders, coupled with extremely poor planning, morale and coordination among Russian forces ensured that Russia's initial plan failed.
That failure has so far cost the Russian Army 5,000 to 8,000 troops killed in action, with probably three to four times that many wounded, captured or missing, along with at least 1,350 vehicles, heavy weapons and aircraft destroyed or captured."
Meanwhile its army is taking losses in Ukraine which are fundamentally unsustainable if they continue over more than a month or two. In return, it has captured limited amounts of territory in the north, east and south of Ukraine, but has only taken one major city (Kherson) and a few smaller ones such as Melitopol.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-10622533/Russia-Ukraine-happens-win.html
So, according to that article, the Russians may have lost 32000 personnel as killed, injured, or missing. And also huge amounts of equipment.
How long do you think they can afford to take those sorts of losses, especially given the constraining effects of sanctions that make it difficult for them to afford to keep this going.
And they just can’t keep throwing more and more into this because it will drastically weaken their military with respect to other priorities.
The Russian military has lost the most important element for a side that is attacking – momentum. It no longer has the ability to dictate the pace of the battle and therefore it is going to be ground down. It might be able to do the same to the Ukrainians however they Ukrainians have more man power available in theatre and are currently (from most reputable sources) making the Russians lose more men and equipment than they are.
Big if true.
If Putin fails to take Ukraine (and its looking increasingly likely he won't) would this be Putins Suez equivalent where Russia stops being considered a global super power
Or just a speed bump?
Well around Nato hq in Belgium,there are free handouts at the pharmacies.
Yep. Russia is destined to become a vasal state for China.
I listened to Professor John Mearsheimer on this. He appears to be an expert on the subject and he says Russia isn't interested in taking Ukraine, as you describe it. They want it to be neutral and not in NATO.
He is well worth a listen as he has been lecturing on this specific subject for a fair few years now.
So, why has Putin invaded, and why is he slaughtering innocent civilians, then?
Ukraine's membership of NATO was not a done deal, and certainly a long way in the future. So no immediate threat.
What is described as Russia's objectives in your post could also be achieved through diplomacy rather than war.
Ukraine were steadfast in their resolve to join NATO…and expected NATO help …big time…got it..wrong.
But Ukraine was miles away from joining Nato. So, that wasn't an immediate threat that justified invasion. And, NATO is a defensive alliance that doesn't threaten anybody.
So, you still haven't given a compelling justification for Putin's actions.
My sources say that Stinger and Javelin missiles are what is making the difference.
That is why Russian tanks don’t want to move and Russian air power is attacking soft targets.
Russia will lose this and are finished as a superpower.
US and NATO have vastly superior weaponry.
Yes, Russia is quite vulnerable to Javelins in particular because of their heavy reliance on armoured vehicles.
Ed, Putin really wants western recognition of the annexation of Crimea and talks over new eastern borders Ukraine and Russia. A resolution over this ends sanctions on Russia.
But as part of a rapprochement in relations, here Russian concern over Ukraine joining NATO within wider talks over NATO advance deployment in former Warsaw Pact nations.
Biden/Blinken determined on a NATO hard-line as a show of their liberal democracy leadership.
Putin raised his bet (a mistake). Now NATO is unified around forcing Russia into becoming a pariah/vassal of China.
Let's all hope the President of Ukraine saves use from this folly by doing some sort of deal with Russia.
@Ed, "He is well worth a listen as he has been lecturing on this specific subject for a fair few years now"….do you actually really think most of these people want to to hear reason, nuance…facts from someone who actually knows what the hell they are talking about when it comes to Russia?…believe me, you are talking to the wrong crowd my friend.
Us or them. This TINA shit is how wars start. How about we don't support war, how about we oppose it in all it's forms.
Putin is a war criminal, but neither do I support sending weapons to Ukraine or any escalation of war.
As for the decades to get off petrol, you might want to read the latest report on climate change buddy, your talking like it's the 1970's and we have time. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/#SPM
As for Bill Birch, are you shitting me quoting that guy. Do you know how many people committed suicide because of that prick. How many other had poor quality of life, or had their lives shorten because of his reforms. His reform of ACC was the worst of any the whole neo-liberal shitfuckery – people died because of his hubris.
Just as well the cooler heads in Nato have not been drawn into a hot war then. I think it’s obvious which side is civilised and which one is a psychotic aggressor committing war crimes and blowing up civilians , and issuing nuclear threats
The King must Die
And not only threats, the aggressors have actually unleashed them on civilian populations , murdering 100s of thousands
Nagasaki and Hiroshima.I don't call that civilised
If you're making a list of historical sins you will find plenty of red in Russia's ledger. I am talking about the situation on the ground today in Ukraine.
A good article rob. From that link there were quite a few others.
You really have to ask why the Russian people have been cursed to be ruled by such a succession of fuckwads for centuries. Elsewhere I've pointed out that Putin, while no angel, has nonetheless probably until now, been the best leader this nation has had in 200 years. Yes it was a very low bar he had to crawl over, but it does explain his enduring popularity. Yet it turns out like all over-educated thugs, money only made him more of what he already was.
And as with all strongman polities, Putin's regime was always going to end badly. The open question now is how much damage is Russia going to inflict on the wider world as it tumbles off centre stage.
The tale of Igor Sechin is disturbing but not surprising. The despair of the Russian people must be palpable. At least under the boot of Communism they had bread and shelter.
One hopes that someday soon the people who build up society will overcome their predators, who only know how to steal and destroy.
In my limited experience living and working there for a few months, what I can say with confidence is that Russia is a society with an incredibly low levels of trust in the public domain. It shows up in all manner of ways, from their buttoned down, no eye contact behaviour on public transport, through to their housing and architecture, through to fully armed guards at every bank.
The great German statesman Bismark once said of them 'you cannot trust the Russians, they do not trust themselves'.
Yet in private they are the exact opposite. Even their Underground system in their larger cities reflects this, grim and grubby on the surface and astonishingly beautiful on the inside. The same with the apartment blocks, Soviet era brutalism on the outside, even in the entrances and lobbies. Then to enter your apartment it is necessary to step through three doors, one from the main lobby to a short corridor, then another into the outer door to your apartment, then finally a third inner door into your apartment. Each one is opened and locked behind you like airlocks on a spacecraft. This procedure is drummed into you as essential.
Yet when you step inside the private domain it is a completely different world, bright warm, colourful and very welcoming. Despite my limited Russian I felt very much at home – and I came away from this trip with an abiding sense of affinity with these people. To the extent that I almost felt more at ease with them than I do in my native NZ.
It is this shocking contrast between the two domains – private trust and public distrust – that to my mind lies at the root of so much of Russia's deeply troubled history.
Nice read there.
Where would we all be if there was no direction given on the appropriate emotional response. In this wee piece of narrative manipulation, otherwise known as propaganda, the facts are secondary because at all points we know how to react because we are told who is good and who is evil just like in any fairy tale. And now this is offered up as seriuos analysis? No wonder the west is dying if this is how our betters view the state of their subjects minds
Sometimes fairy tales and allegories provide deeper insight than a list of facts. Human culture is based on the stories we tell. They might not be literally true in every respect, but they tell us something about ourselves. This piece lays out starkly the despotic rule of Putin.
Or it lays out starkly someones deep antipathy towards all things Russian. It starts with a set of axioms that must be accepted before the reader can be initiated. "The queen hated the king". "The king was drunk, violent and cruel". You guessed it. "The king was Russia"
Rather childish I would have thought unless you were already prone to believing fairy tales?
Oh dear, and after the incredible success Russia had in rigging the US elections with just $100,000 worth of facebook ads.
Surely they could have rigged the Ukrainian elections in 2019?
So much cheaper than this
"Surely they could have rigged the Ukrainian elections in 2019?
So much cheaper than this"…..yeah one would have thought so (if you use the tortured logic of our merry band of Russiagate idiots around here ) but as you and I have both experienced many many times, logic doesn't seem to be in high demand around these parts when it comes to Geo-politics.
"….. logic doesn't seem to be in high demand around these parts when it comes to Geo-politics." A an exemplar, we should take your word for it Adrian!
While you are at it, this is a good read. If you have a philosophical aversion to the site, look at the links including NYT and Huffpost……
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2019/10/summary-thread-obamas-vice-president-biden-and-secretary-of-state-kerrys-corrupt-actions-in-the-ukraine/
I thought it was Cambridge Analytica
Afraid that one's hit the dust as well
https://www.newstatesman.com/uncategorized/2020/10/how-cambridge-analytica-scandal-unravelled
George Kennan and Dean Rusk.
Not Acheson. Korea. Not Powell. Iraq. Not Clinton Libya. Not Blinken. Ukraine.
This means looking for a diplomatic solution, asap.
We have survived a GFC and pandemic via resort to QE (its arrival in China will mean supply/distribution disruption will continue a while longer) but now face the impact of rising inflation on cheap debt money markets. Is this really the time to re-unify NATO via Cold War with Russia, just so Biden can pose himself as leader of the liberal democratic world? He’ll be gone in 2024.
https://www.reuters.com/business/ukraine-crisis-could-cut-1-off-global-growth-this-year-oecd-2022-03-17/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_term=Reuters%20Daily%20Briefing&utm_content=17-3-22&utm_campaign=17-3-22
https://original.antiwar.com/david_stockman/2022/02/23/george-kennan-warned-nato-expansion-would-lead-to-this/
[I’ve un-bolded 3 long paragraphs. Using italics is usually more than sufficient to emphasise things if you wish – bold together with italics is a little OTT. The odd bold word or part-sentence is fine too. Bold text is used for moderation here and thus needs to stand out in and from regular comments – Incognito]
Great post that really nails the complete nastiness of US foreign policy. To translate the battle against the Soviet regime into a battle against Russians is indeed nuts. Russia has seen this before from Nazi Germany. Pretending innocence wont wash. It has been deliberate and we know this since all attempts by Russia, including by Putin, to integrate Russia into both Nato and Europe have been rejected. The only sane conclusion that Russia can come to is that it and its people are the enemy and the fight against the Soviet regime was just a pretext for the greater battle against Russia and its people
Since the Cold War (defeating the centre of communist resistance to capitalism) it's being treated as just another nation with resources not open to ownership by the global market corporate (as per Iran 1950's, Venezeula, Iraq, Libya etc) – regime change.
I'm not pro-Russia. I'm pro-truth. These days, that will get you attacked a lot.
When the world is awash with mindless propaganda that happens to be pro-Ukraine, debunking anything than the pro-western line can easily make you seem pro-Russian.
The reality is that I just want the war to end, along with 99% of the world.
Mod note for you.
Another history lecture on behalf of the revanchist thugs running Russia. This time it's Poland that's not a legitimate country; it's filled with Nazi supporters and it’s time to to do a little more denazification.
We can say that today's Poland is a country named after Joseph Vissarionovich Stalin.
But Poland does not appreciate this, it considers the territory of Ukraine its colony and is ready, like a hyena, to profit from its "remnants". It's time to carry out the denazification of Poland as an accomplice of the Bandera regime. Especially since she herself is asking for it.
https://www.pravda.ru/world/1690791-polska/
google translate
Pick a side
The 1% or the 99%….nationality unimportant.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/16/russia-rich-wealthy-western-elites-thomas-piketty
"So why has no progress still not been made in this direction? For one simple reason: western wealthy people fear that such transparency will ultimately harm them. This is one of the main contradictions of our time. The confrontation between “democracies” and “autocracies” is overplayed, forgetting that western countries share with Russia and China an unbridled, hyper-capitalist ideology, and a legal, fiscal and political system that is increasingly favourable to large fortunes."
Piketty is bang on.
Ukraine is the poorest country in Europe, in no small part because it has been sucked dry by fewer than a dozen people since the fall of the Soviet Union.
In near history we will be able to show the invasion as the response of Russian oligarchs to commercial territory lost by Zelinsky's anti-corruption drive putting their interests at risk.
It is really not that difficult to describe billionaires as criminals no matter where they are. But not all of them use Presidents as subcontractors.
"…everything is done to distinguish useful and deserving western “entrepreneurs” from harmful and parasitic Russian, Chinese, Indian or African “oligarchs”. But the truth is that they have much in common. In particular, the immense prosperity of multimillionaires on all continents since the 1980s and 90s can be explained to a large extent by the same factors, and in particular by the favours and privileges granted to them."
Piketty is right that inequality is grotesquely distended now, but no not all billionaires corrode politics the same way across all countries.
Some of this is covered in "Why Nations Fail" by Acemoglu and Robinson.
"Piketty is right that inequality is grotesquely distended now, but no not all billionaires corrode politics the same way across all countries"
Curious….I'd suggest that that is exactly what Piketty is saying.
"Zelensky's anti corruption drive", yeah right…….https://www.theguardian.com/news/2021/oct/03/revealed-anti-oligarch-ukrainian-president-offshore-connections-volodymyr-zelenskiy
Two questions for those of you on the side of Putin and Russia in this conflict:
Surely if life under Russia was so goddam wonderful I wouldn't be asking either of these questions.
1-some do,some….don't.
2-the same reason Iraquis,Vietnamese and many other nations do when Uncle Sam arrives-guns blazing.
Russian people are free to emigrate and…many do.
Indeed one of the overlooked demographic factors in play here is that those fleeing Russia will be their youngest and best educated, from an already desperately diminished generation.
Literally Russia's last export will be its future.
Sounds like Aotearoa/NZ today!
Yes there is some truth in that. Somewhere I recall reading that some 25% of everyone ever born in NZ now lives elsewhere.
Our youngest and best educated realise they can't afford to buy a house in their own…country=deplorable.
14.1% in 2014 according to this information.
Yes, I did see a docu on that awhile ago. Don't ask me to link to it; I have seen an awful lot of this sort of stuff lately.
But the doco was pointing out that the majority of Russians are actually quite poorly educated and the ones that are leaving are the best that they can't really afford to lose.
'
What is the average education level in Russia?
A large percentage of the Russian population has traditionally attained at least an upper secondary education. The figures remained high in 2011: 94% of 25-64 year-olds hold at least an upper secondary qualification. By contrast, the OECD average is 75%, while the average for G20 countries is 60%.'
Thanks for that Blazer
Scary thought. But we didn't think he would really attack Ukraine, or demolish cities, or throw away his troops lives so callously. A real possibility. Putin is running out of ways to exit from this disaster with any sense of victory. He would rather burn the world than lose this obscene war.
That is why I think the best result is for some sort of negotiated settlement that allows Putin to sell the outcome as a "victory" to the Russian people so he can justify the steps he has taken.
He'll have come out with what he went in for in that case, which was to get Crimea officially, create an independent Donbas buffer, and force Ukraine to stop its NATO ambitions.
This all under the umbrella of halting US/Western hegemony.
Here Putin is losing his shit. He obviously knows things aren't going well.
And here is an interesting CNN article around Putins latest utterances that is worth a read. Clearly, he knows things aren't going well for him.
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/17/europe/putin-speech-russia-ukraine-conflict-intl-cmd/index.html
Bolt's take on any geopolitics is so partisan he should be wearing a red,white and…blue…suit.
Australia's Hannity.
You are attacking the person rather than the content of what was said.
Note, the CNN article I linked to says pretty much the same. Last time I looked, CNN were quite some distance away from being right-leaning.
So, what is your take on the reports on what Putin has said in those links?
I have watched the this person on a number of occasions and he is always predictable.
And it is what he SAYS that I disagree with-he starts with Putin has the lost the war!.Been going 3 weeks and I disagree with what he SAYS-comprenez?
As predictable as you posting links from CNN,Wapo,NY Times and other U.S msm.
Right… because the Russian controlled media is so much more accurate? (sarc)
Wrong…because Russian media is JUST AS BIASED as U.S media….some just think the world is…black and white! sarc
Last time I saw, we still haven't had access to independent news sources, Facebook etc cut-off. We haven't had laws put in place threatening 15 years in jail for contradicting the state line.
So, Russian media might just be a little bit more biased than Western media, don't you think?
After all, you felt free to criticise the media sites I pointed to. Do you think you would feel safe openly criticising Russian state media that way if you were in Russia?
Have you ever heard of…Julian Assange?
The media in Western nations can still REPORT on Julian Assange. They certainly are not threatened with 15 years in prison for reporting information that he leaked.
You didn't answer the question. Let me give you a concrete example:
Would you feel safe walking down a street in Moscow with a sign saying: "State Media tells Putin’s lies”
Because I would sure feel safe saying a similar thing about TV1 and our government if I held that view here in NZ.
@tsmithfield….
'
'Would you feel safe walking down a street in Moscow with a sign saying: "State Media tells Putin’s lies”
Because I would sure feel safe saying a similar thing about TV1 and our government if I held that view here in NZ.'
So you now compare NZ with Moscow!
O.K I'll play-I would feel as safe doing that as you would walking down a street in Fort Worth Texas with a sign saying….'Trump is a lying,arsehole'!
So, it seems, in a backhand way, you are saying you wouldn't feel safe doing that in Moscow.
So, if you wouldn't feel safe criticising the media in that way in Russia, and I would feel safe doing that in NZ or pretty much any other Western country I could think of, then I think it is very clear that the media in Russia is incredibly biased. As we saw the other day when one of the media people that dared contradict the state line was quickly arrested.
So, any comparison of bias in Western Media compared to Russian media is massive false equivalence.
The analogy you give doesn't quite work because Trump isn't a media organisation. I would feel quite safe in Fort Worth Texas walking down the street with a sign saying "Fox News is the government's sock puppet." and probably the sign you suggested btw.
@tsmithfield
Your 'conclusions' are in fact 'assumptions'!
'So, any comparison of bias in Western Media compared to Russian media is massive false equivalence'
Try this-'The Daily Mirror reports that, during a White House meeting with Prime Minister Tony Blair last April, President Bush proposed bombing the Qatar-based international headquarters of Arab TV channel al Jazeera. "The memo is explosive and hugely damaging to Bush," The Mirror quotes a source as saying.'
Now Bush was the President of the U.S.A the land of the..free..he was unhappy with Al Jazeera's news content…his solution!!
You need to accept that media bias exists,and how it is dealt with is not uniform around the world.
Bias is bias…how can it be…false equivalence?
I am not saying bias does not exist in Western media organisations. I think we all have our biases unconscious or otherwise.
The point is that in Western societies there are plenty of sources that are free to publish contradictory views to counter biases they see in other media. Thus, we can make our own assumptions about the truth of any particular situation by consulting the various media sources available.
In Russia, that clearly isn't the case. There is only the state media that is readily available. Sure, people can find other information if they search hard enough. But the Russian government is trying to make that as difficult as possible.
Effectively then, state media is the only source of “truth”. So ordinary Russians find it very difficult to find any counter-narrative to that.
So, yes, trying to equate media bias in the west to what is going on in Russia is massive false equivalence. If you can't grasp that, then I really can't help you.
You really should help yourself first.
Creating strawman scenarios and relying on assumptions and your personal opinions do not validate your viewpoint in any convincing way.
Even here in NZ, the overwhelming % of the population rely on TVNZ & 3 news,ZB radio and their band of merry blue bottlers.and granny herald for their 'unbiased' sources of daily news!
"Creating strawman scenarios and relying on assumptions and your personal opinions do not validate your viewpoint in any convincing way."
Sigh…. Are you trying to claim what I said about media restrictions in Russia is incorrect. Because it has had plenty of discussion here, so almost goes without saying I would have thought. But google "Media restrictions in Russia" and see what pops up for you.
Even here in NZ, the overwhelming % of the population rely on TVNZ & 3 news,ZB radio and their band of merry blue bottlers.and granny herald for their 'unbiased' sources of daily news!
That may be true.
But perhaps you could point to a "biased" media article to support your assertion.
But the difference is that people here have a free choice if they want to limit the media they digest. But there are huge amounts of sources readily available to them if they want a wider perspective on an issue.
Not so in Russia. That is the big difference.
-Russian people are free to leave …and many do.
-As for media bias…Mike Hosking is an unashamed Natz man .
You will have no trouble detecting bias,listening to him 1ZB.
You are going around in circles.
I have already agreed that there is media bias in Russia.
You appear obsessive about the degree,compared to the…West.
"-Russian people are free to leave …and many do."
But why should people have to leave their country to learn the truth they should be able to get from their own media?
"As for media bias…Mike Hosking is an unashamed Natz man"
Let me take this slowly for you:
Firstly, the fact that a media person such as Hosking can express points of view that contradict a left wing government is proof that our media is free of government influence and control compared to Russia.
Secondly, there is no shortage of left wing media personalities to balance those views.
Are you starting to understand the difference between media in the west and Russian media?
Q-'But perhaps you could point to a "biased" media article to support your assertion.'
A-Almost everything Mike Hosking who asks the 'hard' questions says.
Q-'But why should people have to leave their country to learn the truth they should be able to get from their own media?
A-they don't leave the country for that reason.
Q-'Are you starting to understand the difference?
A-No I'm not.Please name me the left wing commentators on Newstalk 1ZB.
"A-Almost everything Mike Hosking who asks the 'hard' questions says."
You obviously didn't see the " " around the word "biased". I was simply asking for a source to back up your assertion, which you haven't given.
"A-they don't leave the country for that reason."
But it is how they can get access to free media. It shouldn't be like that in Russia.
"A-No I'm not.Please name me the left wing commentators on Newstalk 1ZB."
John MacDonald on ZB sounds fairly left wing to me. But that isn't the point. There are plenty of media organisations in NZ that do have media with left wing views. If you don't like Hosking on ZB you can listen to someone else on another station.
Are you denying that this is the case.
One last time…
'I have already agreed that there is media bias in Russia.
You appear obsessive about the degree,compared to the…West.'
@Blazer….Just play the ball today damn you man!….don’t you dare adjust your tactics to reflect what you might have learnt playing ball with them yesterday..you know, yesterday when you got your arse kicked by them…yeah that time, well don’t use that information to help you today…OK?
Careful there Blazer, according to Incognito what a person says or writes is completely separate from whatever actions (good or bad) they have (or have not) done in the past…in other words you cannot judge or comment on a statement from what you know about that person and their past, but comment only on the content of what they have said specifically today…quite a bizarre turn of events I know ..but now apparently law on The Standard (according to Incognitos discretion I assume) …punishable by expulsion from the tribe I have been told…lol.
Maybe Incognito might relate to this little quote…or maybe not, who knows? I certainly wouldn’t want to judge or comment on what Incognito might or might not relate to today, and especially not from what I might have learnt about them from their comments yesterday or the day before or anything like that….that just wouldn’t make any sense.
“If today I stand here as a revolutionary, it is as a revolutionary against the Revolution”
[You’ve not taken in anything Micky or I said about quoting or addressing an idea or topic. In fact, you twisted my words in such an absurd way that I have to assume you’re projecting your own BS onto others – I’ve long assumed this, but given you the benefit of doubt, until recently. I doubt that you even realise that you’re doing this. You think the ‘enemies’ are others and elsewhere and you demonise them, but in reality they are your inner demons, figments of your own mental constructs, which you love so much that you’re not willing to give them up under any circumstance because they make you who you are – without them you’re nothing.
The “law on The Standard” is the Policy.
TS is no “tribe”, it is free forum for anybody who wants to debate things, regardless of their persuasion. You’re excluding yourself by your complete lack of listening and responding appropriately. You’re also incapable of agreeing to disagree, of compromise, of nuance and you will therefore always fight ‘to the death’ because you cannot imagine another way or any other outcome, as that would be utterly inconsistent and incompatible with your binary dogmas.
Your quote was pathetic and it suited you.
Educational and instructive efforts are wasted on you, which doesn’t leave many options at our discretion – Incognito]
Godwin Award of the day.
Even with a quote from Adolf Hitler, I think we still need to take the approach that is advised by Incognito.
Just because a person is incredibly bad doesn't mean everything they ever did or said was bad. Truth is truth whoever's mouth it eminates from.
Exactly the same for anything Putin says as well.
For instance, if Putin claimed his purpose for going into Ukraine was to "liberate" the Ukranian people from Nazis, we could then judge that claim on the basis of what Putin did (through his army) subsequently.
For instance, we could assess how the first statement aligned with subsequent actions that involve shelling civilian populations including hospitals and the like.
That way, we are examining critically the statements rather than drawing conclusions on the basis of who said them.
Just because a person is incredibly bad doesn't mean everything they ever did or said was bad. Truth is truth whoever's mouth it eminates from.
Yes. It is an odd paradox inasmuch that no words coming from Putin's mouth can be ever trusted again – yet in hindsight some will be proven true nonetheless.
One of my favourite quotes for example comes from Stalin of all people, 'the death on one man is a tragedy, the death of millions a statistic'. Of course history has condemned Stalin as a monster, and the hordes his of leftwing apologists in the 1920's and 30's as 'useful idiots'.
We can only hope that Putin endures the same fate as Stalin, abandoned to die slowly and painfully, his staff too scared to act to save him.
'For instance, if Putin claimed his purpose '
And if he didn't ….we can therefore not arrive at any logical connection between his words and …deeds.
The point of that comment wasn't to report any specific statement from Putin. Rather to demonstrate that statements can be judged against actions rather than personalities.
Hopefully we don't have to make that judgment whilst huddled in a fallout shelter.
As I commented earlier
Look at the sheer incoherence of Adrian’s writing. The incoherence of that second paragraph is stunning. You can almost see the angry drool dripping from their slavering lips. It is like reading a Putin speech – full of some weird world view that cannot be explained, but only possible in a world that doesn’t allow alternate opinions.
Throughout the entirety of the comment the idiot author of it doesn’t manage to coherently state a single argument about what their opinion actually is. It is clear that they spend all of their time in a simpleton’s reactive mode rather than actually being able to articulate their argument. Probably because they don’t have a coherent idea about what they want – instead preferring to be a critic of others who are willing to do the intellectual heavy lifting.
Adrian, rather than being a worker in society, clearly prefers a role of being a carping parasite criticising what others discuss.
Right down to the lazy fool using a quotation without sourcing it.
Firstly, I have to say I find it highly amusing that this whole thing was supposedly about “playing the ball not the player”…and you immediately go off on a half demented rant aimed directly at me…luckily for all concerned, I don’t give a fuck what you (or Incognito for that matter) think about me…and anyway I have always been League man, so playing the man when needed is what comes naturally to me…as it obviously does you too Iprent.
Yes, it is true that I don’t write or spell or know as many big words as many people here on The Standard Iprent, I guess some of that lack of finesse is the result of me leaving school the day I turned 15 to work on Auckland’s building sites…luckily none of that bothers me in the slightest either.
However, it is not the way we construct sentences that is what separates us Iprent, no, I will tell you what the difference is between you and myself…I have always been the first person to admit that I am a bit of a dummy and I try to admit when I am wrong…while you on the other hand, really and truly believe you are the always smartest guy in the room… a very unattractive trait indeed…especially coming from a guy who obviously usually isn’t..like yourself.
One of the things I have observed while being here on The Standard is that, while I might be a bit of a dummy at times, I have a something that you don’t possess Iprent, and judging by the extreme low resolution understanding that many of your comments on Geopolitics regularly display, can’t be taught….and that is the ability for natural, critical, free thinking.
“You can almost see the angry drool dripping from their slavering lips”….man, I fucking love it, I have been giggling about that one all day, cheers pal.
You mean like your attack on incognito in the comment that I replied to, you worthless self-lying hypocrite.
Or indeed your comment here.
As I pointed out and as my comment was planned to highlight, you like to dish out criticism, but have a very thin skin in dealing with criticism directed at you.
Just read your comment in response to me doing exactly what you have delivered to others all over this post.
Your response consists of an attack on someone else at a personal level. Followed by whining that amounted to just saying that you simply didn’t like my tone, and that I was being unfair. It didn't address any point in my comment about why I was doing it. It didn’t even acknowledge that your recent behaviour has been bloody atrocious and rather than address issues, you have consistently only attacked others for their different opinions to yours.
It'd be fine if you argued your point without being a frigging useless critic. But clearly you don't seem to be capable of doing that.
In other words a critic too lazy to read the responses of others and deal with their criticism of you, too lazy to respond to their arguments with respect, and too lazy to look up material to support your argument or to refute that of others.
I couldn't give a damn about the way you write. There are people who have far more problems with that than you – who make clear what their opinions and argument. Trickledown for instance. Hell – half of my comments are only semi-incoherent according to my partner with her obsession with words and grammar.
Instead you appear to incapable of dealing with the arguments of others without resorting to personally attacking them or attacking the site that allows them to write reasonably freely here. You don't disagree and argue accordingly. Your "free-thinking" appears to consist only of finding ways to accuse others of heresy without actually arguing with them about their beliefs.
In another age, in my opinion, you would have made a good recruit for the inquisition or stasi.
Basically you should modify your behaviour to others, be cause clearly you don’t like a similar personal attack behaviour being mirrored back on you. You’d better to this soon, because I’m getting tired of you acting like a know-it-all teen who fails to understand how to respectfully disagree.
To quote Iprent..” “too lazy “…” whining”..” lazy”..” know-it-all teen”…” good recruit for the inquisition”..” appear to incapable”…” too lazy”…” frigging useless”…” bloody atrocious”…” very thin skin”..” lazy fool”…” carping parasite”…” simpleton”…” sheer incoherence of Adrian’s writing”…” incoherence of that second paragraph is stunning”…” You can almost see the angry drool dripping from their slavering lips”..… “you worthless self-lying hypocrite.”
And here I was being accused of playing the man not the ball….go figure.
Why don’t you re-read Lprent’s reasoning again here: https://thestandard.org.nz/pick-a-side/#comment-1876091. He’s holding up a mirror to you and you don’t seem to realise it.
Mod note for you.
"You can almost see the angry drool dripping from their slavering lips. It is like reading a Putin speech"….that is so great man…I fucking love it…gotta go to work now, but thanks.
The imagery of Zelensky addressing the US congress wearing military green with some sort of Iron Cross on the breast is quite jarring, imo.
Ummm… this is the cross of the Armed forces of Ukraine.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armed_Forces_of_Ukraine#/media/File:Ensign_of_the_Ukrainian_Armed_Forces.svg
Oh, well, then you can see why Russia is so interested…
…maybe the Armed Forces of Ukraine might like to change their branding.
Watch out now, the German Airforce is turning back into the Luftwaffe! /s
https://www.bundeswehr.de/de/organisation/luftwaffe
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_Air_Force
Please won’t Russia save those oppressed by the cross pattée. /s
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cross_patt%C3%A9e
For those who defend Putin's actions based on the allegations that the Ukraine parliament is undemocratic and Nazi-leaning.
The Ukrainian democratic system is quite flawed, but is a whole lot better than the sham democracy of Russia. Putin's contempt for democracy rivals late 1930s Germany.
In order to get around a Russian constitution clause preventing him from becoming president for a third successive time, Putin got himself elected Prime Minister in 2008, got a nobody called Medvedov elected as President and ruled in his puppet's name.
Soon afterwards the inconvenient clause was dropped.
Putin doesn't even bother to pretend now that there is any semblance of democracy in Russia. Russia is an authoritarian dictatorship run by a bully and a thug.
So what is your point, Gosman?
While I wouldn't normally find myself in agreement with Gosman, it is pretty standard for heads of state to wear the insignia or even uniform of the armed forces of that state. Macron in France has been doing it recently. The cross pattée/iron cross/Victorian cross/Maltese cross is a very common symbol across Europe, and has been for centuries. The OP would have a point if Zelenskyy was wearing a wolfsangel.
Are you suggesting that the Jewish president of Ukraine, who had 3 uncles killed in the Holocaust, is a Nazi sympathiser?
No, I'm saying it looks jarring. And, if there are suggestions the Ukraine armed forces are heavy with far right wing militia types, Zelensky attire isn't doing a lot to dispel those accusations.
Jarring to you, because you are unfamiliar with it's common usage.
As has been repeatedly pointed out, the cross pattée is part of the Ukrainian armed forces insignia, also the German armed forces, as well as the British Victoria Cross and the Russian Order of St George.
Actually, the nazis seemed to phase out the german use of that cross.
Very big in WW1, seemed to prefer a straight-line variant in WW2.
e.g. this
vs this
The Germans have reverted to the original version these days:
Its a cross in a country with a Christian heritage…this nonsense dosnt warrant 10 replies.
However they still used it for all their Iron Cross decorations 1st,2nd and 3rd classes…which was one of the most important and recognizable insignia of the German armed forces during WW2.
The VC uses a similar cross.
Russia may be able to sustain its attack in Ukraine for only another 10-14 days according to this article:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10613069/Putins-forces-able-fight-14-days-military-experts-say.html
So, that may explain why Russia is getting more interested in negotiating.
lol no shit they're more interested in negotiating.
If they've had 7,000 dead (well, "if"), there's maybe another 20,000-30,000 wounded or captured.
That's a significant proportion of their invasion force. So while they might be dragging as many as possible to replenish and increase the ranks, Putin's cost/benefit equation has changed drastically. Now the fall-back goal is to get at least a breather to save face and redeploy. Russia will be wanting a cease fire, while Ukraine will be wanting Russia to fuck off out of all the territories occupied since 2014.
Any outright victory for Russia is extremely unlikely, and becomes more unlikely as the war drags on..
Yes, I agree with you. The 7000 dead is considered quite a conservative estimate from what I have read.
The other problem for the Russians is that the sanctions are going to make it hard for them to replenish their war effort.
I have mixed feelings about a ceasefire.
On one hand, I really want the civilians and innocent parties to be able to escape. It is harrowing watching this stuff on TV every night, and must be terrifying to live through.
On the other hand, a ceasefire does give the Russians a chance to redeploy and solve some of their issues. This could become a long term disadvantage for the Ukrainies.
My thoughts are the Ukrainies should maximise their advantage at the moment, and not give the Russians a chance to catch breath; to try and run them low on ammunition and supplies.
It would be great if they were able to over-run some of the Russian artillery positions that are causing so much damage to civilian targets at the moment.
Putin has too much invested to turn around and somehow argue all his objectives were gloriously met. A promise of Ukraine to not join NATO won't cut it.
So far the local cease fires have been violated by Russian forces when the civilians wanted to flee west.
Rather than having a glorious 4 day victory, Putin could lose his job over this. And this is just the first month.
From what I understand and have read, regime change is unlikely to come from his inner circle as they are hand-picked by him and unlikely to move against him as they are probably all on the same page.
However, I am wondering about the military making a move against Putin. Those are the people with the guns and the military power. They must be getting a bit sick of all this, especially since they have lost four generals in the conflict now according to reports I have seen.
It's the prisoner's dilemma for toadies of corrupt rulers: first one to break at the right time goes free, break too soon you get shot, break too late and you get shot.
Yes. That is the big problem. How to initiate that sort of conversation with an associate without knowing whether they would dob you in or not must be very tricky.
That is why I think the military might be the best chance. Because I don't think they would be so directly under Putin's thumb. And, they can see directly the stupidity of what they have been told to do.
Others have raised this idea: e.g.
https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/597940-the-russian-military-should-overthrow-putin-for-russias-sake-and
Putin has several layers of military that watch each other for signs of insufficient loyalty; one of his bigwigs has recently been 'relieved of duty'. Probably why he only committed a part of the Russian army to the Ukraine offensive; he needs the rest to watch his back, and keep each other in line. A huge amount of manpower is spent on thought police. A difficult problem.
Domestic security is a different budget to the military.
The basic problem the Russians have is the same as the US had over the last 20 years: a sticker like "2 million people in the armed forces" means basically "a couple hundred thousand full time soldiers, a bunch of cooks and mechanics who can maybe fill in at a pinch, and a million folks who probably couldn't get within a thousand miles of a war zone unless you want to give up territory or cancel an entire structure like strategic nukes or the western fleet and give them all rifles". If you commit all your fulltime soldiers, everywhere else is vulnerable. And once you run out of them, they take years to replace.
The US was redeploying entire units from one active combat zone directly to another. The combat tempo abraded the training budget, which was suggested as causing some fatalities.
Now imagine a military that's had a couple of decades (if not more) of inadequate training and maintenance trying to invade a nation large in area and population.
Yes. Nothing is easy.
Nice win for the Ukrainians here:
I wouldn’t want to be in a Russian in an armoured vehicle over there. More like a steel coffin.
totally
LOL.
Yep it's casualties total that knackers the invasion force, not just the number killed.
I remember reading something about the Nazis' failure to defeat the USSR that went something like "The Axis invaded the USSR with 2 million men and averaged 150,000 casualties a month. You do the maths on how that's going to work out if you don't win in a matter of months."
Yeah, my dad, who was ex-military, said that it is considered better to cause injuries to the enemy rather than kill them. Because that then tied up more of the enemy resources in caring for the wounded.
This is the wrong way around. A few days ago Zelensky said Russian demands were becoming 'more reasonable'.
That, and your claim, suggest Russian demands are legitimate, just the extent of them is in question.
I think everyone is coming around to the idea that the West has indeed been courting Ukraine and Ukraine has been happy to be courted.
Hopefully everyone in the region comes to an acceptable compromise.
I am sure that "courting" is far more preferable to the Ukrainies than the Russian way of doing things. For instance, annexing Crimea and the like.
As per the point I made earlier, it is interesting that ex Soviet bloc countries are very keen to coalesce with the West rather than with Russia, and that Russia has to obtain co-operation through force rather than diplomacy.
You do know that The Daily Mail along with the rest of western MSM would have you believe that the west is at war with Russia..therefore everything they tell you is now suspect right?
This is where Biden and Trump stand on Putin.
(5) The Parties on Putin – YouTube
Poots won't be happy about China’s bob each way.
China will never attack Ukraine, but will support it economically and politically, China's ambassador to Ukraine Fan Xianrong said on Tuesday. The ambassador wanted to shake hands with the head of the Lvov regional military administration, Maxim Kozytsky.
"China and Ukraine are strategic partners, this year marks 30 years since the establishment of diplomatic relations between our countries. China is a friendly country for the Ukrainian people. As ambassador, I can responsibly say that China will always be a good force for Ukraine, both economically and politically. We will always respect your state, we will develop relationships based on equality and mutual benefits. We will respect the path chosen by the Ukrainians, because this is the sovereign right of every nation, "said the ambassador of the People's Republic of China to Ukraine, Fan Xianrong, during a meeting at the Lviv Regional Military Administration, Ukrinform reported , citing the administration's press service from Lvov.
https://www.aktual24.ro/furie-la-kremlin-ambasadorul-chinei-in-ucraina-se-declara-admirator-al-rezistentei-am-vazut-cat-de-mare-este-unitatea-poporului-ucrainean-iar-asta-inseamna-puterea-sa-vom-respecta-calea-aleasa-d/
google translate
Yes. China is in a tricky position because war is not good for business. And, they probably don't want to be seen as complicit in the wanton killing of civilians that is happening at the moment.
Their respect for Russia would have dropped quite a few notches I would say, seeing what is going on, and how weak and poorly managed the Russian military are. I think the Chinese would have been a lot more clinical in the same situation.
So much of Russia's effort seems weak and poorly managed. Especially considering the build up time on the border – where they perhaps could have made a decent plan.
Anyway, China's dollar each way could go a long way toward de-escalation, as surely part of Putin's perceived strength, both to himself and the rest of the world, was this ally.
But, China might just sucker-punch someone else. I mean, I've seen worse human behaviour, and decisions.
Couple of fascinating threads on the status of Russia's armed forces.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1493968165717561346.html
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1502673952572854278.html
Anyone who said that Russia would win in 2-3 days was obviously lying for obvious reasons or doesn't know what they are talking about….do you think the Russians didn't know that the country is flooded with the latest US A/T ans A/A weapons?, that the Ukrainian army would be highly motivated and have total Allied support in terms of resupply of arms ans munitions?
You do know that as bad as the Russian invasion is, it is the 'soft' version of what the Russian military could inflict on the Ukraine if they chose to?
Of course.
But really, Russia should have the overwhelming military superiority to win this with a conventional war. And they do have to reengage with the rest of the world after this. They are seriously threatening that already by bombing and shelling civilians.
How do you think it would look to the rest of the world if they employed there FOABs to level say Kiev and kill a million civilians in the process?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Father_of_All_Bombs
And Russia has to walk a fine line so far as sanctions go. If Russia employed some of their WMD then they would seriously risk even more crippling sanctions such as having their ports blockaded or the like, or even may draw NATO into the fight if it was perceived as a greater threat to NATO.
So NATO is showing considerable restraint at the moment and hasn't flexed their full muscles yet either.
Another thing is that Russia has to think about their strategic relationship with China.
China is probably already having doubts, and will not want to be tainted by association with a regime that oversteps too far the bounds of acceptable combat methods.
Yesterday you said Russia had already lost !
After 3 weeks of military operations today you are speculating with….'what if's'=hopeless.
You really have no idea what "winning" or "losing" means, do you?
If Ukraine is able to continue resisting and Russia is unable to achieve its strategic objectives then Ukraine has won and Russia has lost.
There is nothing I have seen to dissuade me from that view.
But, please enlighten me. How would you define “winning” and “losing” in this context.
For instance, Russia appears unlikely to be able to take Kiev:
And if Russia continues to waste its own soldiers as they are now, and continues to commit atrocities as they are doing, then it will be a long time before sanctions are lifted.
So, the way it is heading, Russia comes out of this weak and isolated, whatever they do. They will be much weaker at the end than the start.
So, that is losing so far as I am concerned.
Yes I do know what winning and losing means.
When the game is over ,you have a winner and a loser…even if extra time is required.
I realise you have your own definitions and understanding of things.
You stated how poorly educated Russians are…when they are up there as one of the most educated people in…the world.
You are entitled to your perceptions,and prejudices,but they do not necessarily reflect…reality.
So, when is "the game over"? Is it ever "over"? Think the way the Taliban think. From their perspective I suspect they also thought the USA had already lost the war when they went in there.
You still don't understand winning and losing.
You can regurgitate whatever you like about your opinion on what I think or understand.
It is totally irrelevant.
Your understanding of geo politics seems to be a very basic framing of what you glean from your favourite news sources and lacks any in depth analysis imo.
Whatever. All you do is snipe without making any sound argument to back up your position.
If you think I am wrong, then make a case for that so we can all assess the validity of your position.
Your viewpoint is mere speculation about what you think may or may not happen in the future.
As for sniping …you insist that I don't 'understand' X or Y…the temerity!
"Your viewpoint is mere speculation about what you think may or may not happen in the future."
I am happy to engage with you. But you need to make your case. This is so inane. If you think my view is speculation, then make you case for that.
State your own position and provide evidence for that.
Otherwise you are just wearing out people's eyeballs for nothing.
Also, European countries are now looking to wean themselves off Russian energy. That is a big long-term "lose" for Russia.
And which country do you think gets all the economic aid poured in at the end of this, and which one do you think has to endure sanctions possibly for years to come?
Think about "winning" and "losing" in a much wider context than who has killed the most of the enemy, or who controls the most ground. That all favours Ukraine at the moment, anyway, from what I have seen.
Lol….you are just wearing out your own fingers with your armchair military suppositions ,your amateur psychology and your inability to comprehend the scale and the consequences of your simple interpretation of the situation as relayed to you through msm.
e.g….earlier post of yours…'nice win for the ukrainians ..here'!
Sound like Henry Blofeld at a…cricket match.
Translation: Giving Ukrainians the ability to defend themselves will destabalise our efforts to terrorise and kill civilians.
March 17 (Reuters) – Russia's foreign ministry said on Thursday that giving Ukraine air defence systems, as requested by Ukraine's president in the U.S. Congress a day earlier, would be a destabilising factor that would not bring peace to the country.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-air-defence-systems-ukraine-would-destabilise-situation-2022-03-17/
https://archive.li/6I0ly
Nope…
In contrast, one great power, China, is a study in patience. Privately, its officials project confidence that time will deliver a post-war settlement that is greatly to China’s advantage. Since the invasion on February 24th, China has rebuffed repeated pleas from foreign governments that it work more actively to persuade Russia—its “rock-solid” friend—to put a swift end to the mayhem. It has gone no further than boilerplate calls for restraint by all parties in the conflict. Western impatience is showing, with foreign ministers from Spain to Singapore calling on China to exert its “enormous influence” on Russia.
[…]
But no matter how the war unfolds, China will treat its relationship with the Kremlin as a means of boosting Chinese power, not Russia’s. America has reportedly shared intelligence with allied governments showing that Russia has asked China for drones, surface-to-air missiles and other military aid. China’s foreign ministry has called the reports “disinformation”. Mr Xi has no desire to share the blame for Mr Putin’s war, “best friend” though he may be. Nor are there signs of China hastening to take advantage of a distracted West by attacking Taiwan, the island democracy of 24m people that China claims as its own. Unlike Mr Putin, who seems happy to stage dramatic challenges to the global order, Mr Xi appears more cautious.
https://archive.li/2dIoe (economist)
Another fair-weather friend says fuck it, we're out.
In one of the most direct Central Asian refutations of Russia’s war in Ukraine, Uzbek Foreign Minister Abdulaziz Kamilov said Uzbekistan recognized the “independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine” and did not recognize the Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republics. The comments come as Central Asian governments struggle to remain neutral between one of their largest trading partners and their own domestic concerns about sovereignty and territorial integrity.
https://thediplomat.com/2022/03/uzbek-foreign-minister-calls-for-halting-of-hostilities-in-ukraine/