web analytics

Polity: The new TV polls

Written By: - Date published: 7:13 pm, March 31st, 2014 - 24 comments
Categories: polls - Tags:

polity_square_for_lynnThe original of this post is here

The TV1 and TV3 polls yesterday show roughly the same situation, which also mirrors Polity’s poll of polls.

National retains a smallish polling lead over the left bloc of around four points. But Winston Peters and New Zealand First are starting their surge toward the 5% threshold. If they cross that threshold it would complicate the post-election picture enormously.

One added element to account for, though, is the increasing evidence of a modest mismatch between poll-based estimates of popularity and actual popularity in elections. Gavin White from UMR showed a few weeks ago that there are some important patterns of apparent bias in the polls. Specifically, the final polls before our MMP elections have tended, on average, to poll:

  • National: 2.4% too high
  • Labour: 0.5% too low
  • Greens: 1.5% too high
  • NZ First: 1.1% too low.

If we apply those possible biases to the latest Poll of Polls, we get a projected election result that looks something like this:

  • National: 45.4%
  • Labour: 32.1%
  • Greens: 10.3%
  • NZ First: 5.6%

Still a small bloc-level advantage to National, but close. And post-election it would be all down to Winston.


24 comments on “Polity: The new TV polls”

  1. JK 1

    What will the internet party do to the polls ? ? ?

  2. Grantoc 2

    Either nothing


    split and confuse the left leaning voting bloc. It’ll have no impact on the right bloc, except perhaps to consolidate its small lead.

    • Tautoko Viper 2.1

      The internet party will pull in many younger non-voters from last time and first time voters. This will probably make little difference to Labour but could affect the young green vote. More young people will become aware of the issues through the IP. Traditional MSM is irrelevant to most young people even if the Right think they have it all sewn up. Ask a young person who John Armstrong, Tracey Watkins or Fran O’Sullivan are?

    • One Anonymous Bloke 2.2

      Or (your blind spot is showing),

      Motivate some of the 800,000 non voters to vote.

      • lurgee 2.2.1

        I’m guessing if the ‘missing 800,000’ couldn’t be bothered showing up in 2008 or 2011, with asset sales, National Standards and all the rest of National’s unpleasant agenda to vote against, the Internet Party is not going to get them very excited.

        • Naki Man

          I would have to agree with you Lurgee.

        • One Anonymous Bloke

          Time will tell 🙂

        • miravox

          “I’m guessing if the ‘missing 800,000′ couldn’t be bothered”

          ‘Couldn’t be bothered’ is not necessarily the case. It’s how many who might be bothered to vote, but don’t.

          Not being excited by politics, not seeing an effect on their everyday lives, expecting a foregone conclusion, etc, etc, etc… there are many reasons why people don’t vote. I reckon Dotcom has probably got a better chance of picking up some votes from the 800,000 – even if just because people are a bit curious – than the mainstream parties have (as yet).

          If Labour/Greens can’t present something to these voters who might be bothered (just at the moment cant see quite why they should be) they may well find themselves giving up the election.

  3. Philj 3

    Given that most folk don’t realize that they are being conned, duped, and Rogered, there is every chance for a JoKey to prevail come September. The game is rigged by You know who.

  4. Philj 4

    Never touched the stuff. I wonder what your children think of your caustic attitudes. Especially about the AGW and the environment? I do fear for their future world. Wish I could ignore it like you , ,Naki man.

  5. Bearded Git 5

    IMO Winston hates Key and will go with Labour. He will not forget how Key treated him as a pariah in 2008.

    His price, which he will trumpet, will be (among other things) keeping the Greens out of the cabinet.

    • Tracey 5.1

      If he wants Greens out of Cabinet he wont be in Government himself. The numbers dont show he can govern with labour alone.

      Anyway Key has now announced himself as an environmentalist in claiming victory in the Japanese whaling case. That makes him a hippie and a loonie, or just a liar again.

      Naki Man and others don’t mind the loathing but him being a greenie!!!!

      Will key now wear a t-shirt to parliament

      “I saved the whales”

      • Bearded Git 5.1.1

        Tracey-the Greens (and Mana) will support Lab/NZF on confidence and supply. They have nowhere else to go. That means a Lab/NZF government becomes a reality.

        By the way I’m usually a Green voter.

    • Puckish Rogue 5.2

      Winston will go with whoever offers him what he wants

    • lurgee 5.3

      Peters has few fond memories of his last time in government with Labour so either way he gets to sate his sense of utu. I think the simple arithmetic of the electoral result will dictate his decision – if National’s share of the vote is massively higher than Labour’s he will ‘Heed the will of the New Zealand people and act to prevent the dictatorship of minorities, fringe groups and special interest parties’ – all with a perfectly straight face, of course.

      And installing a National government would, of course, almost certainly mean the Greens were excluded.

  6. Skinny 6

    I am relaxed having talked to many non voters from the last election. I would be surprised if as a base figure 350,000 will show up this election. The Internet Party more so than any other political party will account for 150,000 to show up to vote. Labour will target the South Auckland vote now Mat McCarten is at the helm. NZF is gaining traction now people see a National alliance is out of the question.

    • lurgee 6.1

      Nothing is ever out of the question where Winston is concerned. He is very good at putting aside his ‘personal distaste and conflicting desires’ when high office and the accompanying baubles are concerned.

  7. Tim O'Hara 7

    The one thing that’s missing from all this smokescreen talk on polls is the elephant in the room…Cunliffe’s leadership or lack of it. Forget all this nonsense of dabbling around the edges of the margins and margins of error, the Party has gone backwards in every poll since DC was elected as leader. Whereas David Shearer was showing a percentage point growth poll on poll for most of his tenure, Cunliffe has gone backwards at a huge rate of knots. Time has basically run out and all this margin stuff is only hiding the fact that as leader he has about as much chance of leading Labour to victory as the New Lynn LEC has of telling their Emperor that he’s not wearing any clothes. It’s too late to make a change before the election now but when Labour settles in for 3 more years in opposition will the membership start that term by getting rid of this nice but ineffective leader. More and more I’m hearing people say that David Shearer should never have been placed in the position where he felt a need to step down. He’s no longer the fumbler that we saw in the beginning and it feels like his time to lead as returned.

    • lurgee 7.1

      I admit Cunliffe is a in sticky situation. It isn’t really his fault any more than stagnant polls were Shearer’s fault. The’r simply up against something almost incomprehensibly difficult to combat – the John Key effect.

      People genuinely respond to him. Hell, even I can’t escape the feeling that I wouldn’t mind going out for a pint with him, and (this is the clever bit) I can’t help but feel that he would enjoy it as well. Of course he wouldn’t – but the perception is there that he would. That’s (one reason) why people respond to him.

      Cunliffe, and Goff and Shearer before him, are simply up against something they don’t seem equipped to fight. Goff’s experience and blokeish familiarity were not enough. Shearer’s Astonishing Back Story got him nowhere. Cunliffes (dubious) leftwing credentials, intelligence and passion don’t seem to be having any impact either. And now it is election year, so there needs to be something happening.

      • Didi 7.1.1

        Truth is Shearer was actively undermined by the far left blogosphere – The Standard, Chris Trotter, Brian Edwards, Bomber Bradbury. A year ago Labour was on its way to victory, now its in damage control. Shearer is as likeable and as clever as John Key. All he needed was a party to back him. The Labour activists got this one wrong. Too bad that ego will be delivering another three years for National.

  8. fambo 8

    ahh John Key – girls want to be with him, guys want to be like him

    • lurgee 8.1

      You must admit, it would b quite cool to be able to say start anecdotes, “John and I were …”

      • Hamish 8.1.1

        Totally! like how cool would it be to have known hitler and say “Adolf and I were…”

Recent Comments

Recent Posts


  • A charge on plastic bags – debunking some myths
    The launch of my Members’ Bill last week, which would introduce a 15 cent charge on single-use plastic bags at the check-out, has generated a lot of comment on mainstream and social media. From The Paul Henry Show at the ...
    GreensBy Denise Roche
    22 hours ago
  • National’s $1trillion property sandcastle
    The National government's failure to fix the housing crisis has seen the ballooning and unsustainable property market touch the $1 trillion mark, Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson says. "Labour wants an economy that creates high wage work that is based ...
    23 hours ago
  • Government failure on housing crisis drives Reserve Bank to add tools
    If the Government was delivering a comprehensive plan to fix the housing crisis, it is unlikely that the Reserve Bank would be continuing to pursue debt to income limits for lending for housing, says Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson. ...
    2 days ago
  • International embarrassment for NZ likely over National’s failure to protect Maui dolphin
    New Zealanders who care about Maui dolphin should prepare to feel embarrassed: the Government is about to be put to shame on the international stage for its lack of action to protect Maui’s dolphin. The International Whaling Commissions’ 66th Biennial ...
    GreensBy Eugenie Sage
    4 days ago
  • Why don’t we spend $1b to keep people out of jail, rather than spending it on keeping them in?
    Earlier this week, Corrections Minister Judith Collins announced the government’s ‘solution’ to our burgeoning prison population. It seems that most, if not all, of Bill English’s hard-won surplus is going to disappear into another round of prison-building.  That must be ...
    GreensBy David Clendon
    6 days ago
  • PKE Ship Sent Packing – Not Too Soon
    It is appropriate that the palm kernel expeller (PKE) ship off Tauranga has been sent packing. For weeks I have been saying this ship needed to be sent away, but it seems as if MPI has been trying to find ...
    GreensBy Steffan Browning
    6 days ago
  • Do you #LoveSnow?
    I was a lucky kid. When I was about five or six my mum and auntie took me up to Whakapapa on Mt Ruapehu and taught me to ski. As a young kid I thought there was no bigger ...
    GreensBy James Shaw
    6 days ago
  • Awa Kairangi/Hutt River – Swimmable?
    On Thursday night I hosted a great swimmable rivers meeting organised by the local Greens in Heretaunga (Hutt Valley). It was great to see about 70 people attend and engage in the topic. We were welcomed by Te Atiawa representative ...
    GreensBy Catherine Delahunty
    6 days ago
  • September benefit figures disappointing
    The Government is out of touch with the reality that fewer people are going off the benefit and into employment or study, says Labour’s Social Development spokesperson Carmel Sepuloni.  “The quarterly benefit numbers for September are concerning. They show that ...
    6 days ago
  • MFAT officials refuse to back Prime Minister on Saudi sheep claims
    An Ombudsman’s interim decision released about the existence or otherwise of legal advice on the multimillion dollar Saudi sheep deal shows MFAT has failed to back up the Prime Minister’s claims on the matter, says Labour MP David Parker. “The ...
    6 days ago
  • Barry Coates on his first weeks in Parliament
    Week one in Parliament has been quite an occasion. I would like to share the experience. I had given up on the prospect of getting into Parliament before the election and had been enjoying the diverse work I was doing ...
    GreensBy Barry Coates
    6 days ago
  • Nats still planning to take Housing NZ dividend
    Housing New Zealand’s Statement of Performance Expectations shows that the National Government intends to pocket $237m from Housing New Zealand this year including a $54m “surplus distribution”, despite promises that dividends would stop, says Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford. “After ...
    7 days ago
  • Parliament must restore democracy for Ecan
    Parliament has a chance to return full democracy to Canterbury with the drawing of a member’s bill that would replace the Government’s appointed commissioners with democratically elected councillors, says Labour’s Canterbury Spokesperson Megan Woods. “In 2010, the Government stripped Cantabrians ...
    1 week ago
  • Police struggle to hold the line in Northland
    Labour’s promise of a thousand extra police will go a long way to calming the fears of people in the North, says the MP for Te Tai Tokerau Kelvin Davis.  “Police are talking about the Northland towns of Kaitaia and ...
    1 week ago
  • Vote Sooty Shearwater/Tītī for Bird of the Year
    Sooty shearwater (Puffinus griseus) are amazing and deserve your vote in Forest and Bird’s Bird of the Year competition.  They make one of the longest known bird migrations, flying an annual round trip of 64,000 kms across the entire Pacific ...
    GreensBy Eugenie Sage
    1 week ago
  • Urgent action on agriculture emissions needed
    Immediate action is required to curb agricultural emissions is the loud and clear message from Climate change & agriculture: Understanding the biological greenhouse gases report released today by the Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment, says Labour’s Climate Change spokesperson Megan ...
    1 week ago
  • Super Fund climate change approach a good start
    Labour Finance Spokesperson Grant Robertson and Climate Change Spokesperson Dr Megan Woods have welcomed the adoption of a climate change investment strategy by the New Zealand Super Fund. “This is a good start. It is a welcome development that the Super ...
    1 week ago
  • Energy use going in the wrong direction
    New data out this week from Statistics NZ paints a concerning picture of energy use across the economy under this National Government. You won’t be surprised to hear that there is some seriously worrying information here about how dirty our ...
    GreensBy Gareth Hughes
    1 week ago
  • Raising the age the right thing to do
    The announcement today that the Government will leave the door open for young people leaving state care still means there is a lot of work to do, says Labour's Spokesperson for Children, Jacinda Ardern "The Government indicated some time ago ...
    1 week ago
  • Junior Doctors go on Strike
    Thousands of junior doctors took strike action for 24 hours this week for better working conditions and safer working hours.  The Green Party supports their cause, and particularly their claims to reduce the number of days worked from up to ...
    GreensBy Denise Roche
    1 week ago
  • Coleman plays down the plight of junior doctors
    Junior doctors are crucial to our health services and the industrial action that continues tomorrow shows how desperately the Government has underfunded health, says Labour’s Health spokesperson Annette King.  “Jonathan Coleman’s claim that he has not seen objective evidence of ...
    1 week ago
  • Inflation piles pressure on National and Reserve Bank
    While many households will welcome the low inflation figures announced today, they highlight serious questions for both the National government and the Reserve Bank, Labour’s  Finance Spokesperson Grant Robertson said.  "While low inflation will be welcomed by many, the ...
    1 week ago
  • Officials warned Nat’s $1b infrastructure fund ineffective and rushed
    Treasury papers show the Government rushed out an infrastructure announcement officials told them risked making no significant difference to housing supply, says Labour’s housing spokesperson Phil Twyford.  “Like so much of National’s housing policy, this was another poll-driven PR initiative ...
    1 week ago
  • More cops needed to tackle P
    New Police statistics obtained in Written Questions show John Key is losing his War on P, highlighting the need for more Police, says Opposition Leader Andrew Little.  “New Zealanders expect serious action on P but today’s hodgepodge of half-measures won’t ...
    1 week ago
  • Strengthening our relationship with the Rātana movement
    It was a privilege to visit Rātana Pā last week with fellow Greens’ Co-leader James Shaw, our Māori Caucus and senior staff to meet with the leaders of te iwi mōrehu, to strengthen the ties between the Green Party and ...
    GreensBy Metiria Turei
    1 week ago
  • MBIE docs show country needs KiwiBuild, not Key’s pretend “building boom”
    John Key’s spin that New Zealand is in a building boom does not change the massive shortfall in building construction as new MBIE papers reveal, says Labour Party housing spokesperson Phil Twyford.  “We can fix the housing crisis, by the ...
    1 week ago
  • 1 in 7 Akl houses now going to big property speculators
    Speculators are running riot in the Auckland housing market making life tougher for first home buyers, says Labour’s housing spokesperson Phil Twyford.  Newly released data from Core Logic shows a 40 per cent increase in the share of house sales ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Disconnected thinking dirties the water
    Iain Rabbitts’ belief that drinking water quality, charging for water use and the land use that leads to water quality degradation should be treated separately is part of the problem we have right now in this country. The connection is ...
    GreensBy Catherine Delahunty
    2 weeks ago
  • Report back from Hands Off Our Tamariki hui
    This week I attended a hui in Otaki organised by Hands Off Our Tamariki about the proposed reforms to the Child Young Persons and their Families Act. Moana Jackson and Paora Moyle spoke.  They expressed deep, profound concern about the proposed ...
    GreensBy Jan Logie
    2 weeks ago
  • Labour mourns passing of Helen Kelly
    Helen Kelly was a passionate advocate for working New Zealanders and for a safe and decent working life, Leader of the Opposition Andrew Little says.  “Helen Kelly spent her adult life fighting for the right of every working person to ...
    2 weeks ago
  • National’s visionless immigration policy
    National’s recent immigration announcement is a continuation of the visionless approach to government that it has displayed in the last three terms. Rather than using the levers of government to implement a sustainable immigration policy that benefits new and current ...
    GreensBy Denise Roche
    2 weeks ago
  • Andrew Little: Speech to the Police Association Conference 2016
    Police Association delegates, Association life members and staff, representatives from overseas jurisdictions. Thank you for inviting me here today. The Police Association has become a strong and respected voice for Police officers and for policing in New Zealand. There is ...
    2 weeks ago
  • 1,000 more police for safer communities
    Labour will fund an extra 1,000 Police in its first term to tackle the rising rate of crime, says Leader of the Opposition Andrew Little. “Labour will put more cops on the beat to keep our communities safe. ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Call for all-party round table on homelessness
    Labour is calling on the Government to take part in a roundtable meeting to hammer out a cross-party agreement on ending homelessness.  Labour’s housing spokesperson Phil Twyford said the country wanted positive solutions to homelessness, and wanted the political parties ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Seclusion rooms in schools
    Schools are undoubtedly stretched and underfunded to cope with students with high learning support needs. But this cannot justify the use of rooms (or cupboards) as spaces to forcibly isolate children. It has emerged via media that this practice continues ...
    GreensBy Catherine Delahunty
    2 weeks ago
  • Public should get a say on new Waikato power station
    I had an opinion piece published in the Waikato Times about a controversial proposal to build a new gas-fired power station. It’s not on their website yet, so here it is: If you think the public would get a say ...
    GreensBy Gareth Hughes
    2 weeks ago
  • MSD and their investment approach
    The Government talks about investment but there is no investment. It is not investment if it isn’t over the whole of life and if there is no new money  — Shamubeel Eaqub   Investment sounds like adequate resourcing but this ...
    GreensBy Jan Logie
    2 weeks ago
  • Certainty needed for community services
    A couple of months ago I was at a seminar where three community organisations were presenting. Two of the three presenters were waiting to find out if their organisation would get a contract renewed with MSD. Not knowing if their ...
    GreensBy Jan Logie
    2 weeks ago
  • Domestic Violence – some advice for the media
    For the purpose of this piece, I’m going to use Domestic Violence (DV) as a proxy for intimate partner violence. DV is not isolated to physical abuse in a relationship between people with the same power. DV is a pattern of ...
    GreensBy Jan Logie
    3 weeks ago
  • Leroy’s New Paw Prints
    Leroy, an Auckland great dane recently received a new 3D printed bionic leg after cancer was discovered. I think this is a fantastic story and highlights the real potential of additive manufacturing, or 3D printing Leroy’s prosthetic was printed in titanium and was ...
    GreensBy Gareth Hughes
    3 weeks ago