- Date published:
7:13 pm, March 31st, 2014 - 24 comments
Categories: polls - Tags: polity
The original of this post is here.
The TV1 and TV3 polls yesterday show roughly the same situation, which also mirrors Polity’s poll of polls.
National retains a smallish polling lead over the left bloc of around four points. But Winston Peters and New Zealand First are starting their surge toward the 5% threshold. If they cross that threshold it would complicate the post-election picture enormously.
One added element to account for, though, is the increasing evidence of a modest mismatch between poll-based estimates of popularity and actual popularity in elections. Gavin White from UMR showed a few weeks ago that there are some important patterns of apparent bias in the polls. Specifically, the final polls before our MMP elections have tended, on average, to poll:
If we apply those possible biases to the latest Poll of Polls, we get a projected election result that looks something like this:
Still a small bloc-level advantage to National, but close. And post-election it would be all down to Winston.
What will the internet party do to the polls ? ? ?
split and confuse the left leaning voting bloc. It’ll have no impact on the right bloc, except perhaps to consolidate its small lead.
The internet party will pull in many younger non-voters from last time and first time voters. This will probably make little difference to Labour but could affect the young green vote. More young people will become aware of the issues through the IP. Traditional MSM is irrelevant to most young people even if the Right think they have it all sewn up. Ask a young person who John Armstrong, Tracey Watkins or Fran O’Sullivan are?
Or (your blind spot is showing),
Motivate some of the 800,000 non voters to vote.
I’m guessing if the ‘missing 800,000’ couldn’t be bothered showing up in 2008 or 2011, with asset sales, National Standards and all the rest of National’s unpleasant agenda to vote against, the Internet Party is not going to get them very excited.
I would have to agree with you Lurgee.
Time will tell 🙂
“I’m guessing if the ‘missing 800,000′ couldn’t be bothered”
‘Couldn’t be bothered’ is not necessarily the case. It’s how many who might be bothered to vote, but don’t.
Not being excited by politics, not seeing an effect on their everyday lives, expecting a foregone conclusion, etc, etc, etc… there are many reasons why people don’t vote. I reckon Dotcom has probably got a better chance of picking up some votes from the 800,000 – even if just because people are a bit curious – than the mainstream parties have (as yet).
If Labour/Greens can’t present something to these voters who might be bothered (just at the moment cant see quite why they should be) they may well find themselves giving up the election.
Given that most folk don’t realize that they are being conned, duped, and Rogered, there is every chance for a JoKey to prevail come September. The game is rigged by You know who.
You need to cut down on the weed it’s made you extremely paranoid.
Never touched the stuff. I wonder what your children think of your caustic attitudes. Especially about the AGW and the environment? I do fear for their future world. Wish I could ignore it like you , ,Naki man.
IMO Winston hates Key and will go with Labour. He will not forget how Key treated him as a pariah in 2008.
His price, which he will trumpet, will be (among other things) keeping the Greens out of the cabinet.
If he wants Greens out of Cabinet he wont be in Government himself. The numbers dont show he can govern with labour alone.
Anyway Key has now announced himself as an environmentalist in claiming victory in the Japanese whaling case. That makes him a hippie and a loonie, or just a liar again.
Naki Man and others don’t mind the loathing but him being a greenie!!!!
Will key now wear a t-shirt to parliament
“I saved the whales”
Tracey-the Greens (and Mana) will support Lab/NZF on confidence and supply. They have nowhere else to go. That means a Lab/NZF government becomes a reality.
By the way I’m usually a Green voter.
Winston will go with whoever offers him what he wants
Peters has few fond memories of his last time in government with Labour so either way he gets to sate his sense of utu. I think the simple arithmetic of the electoral result will dictate his decision – if National’s share of the vote is massively higher than Labour’s he will ‘Heed the will of the New Zealand people and act to prevent the dictatorship of minorities, fringe groups and special interest parties’ – all with a perfectly straight face, of course.
And installing a National government would, of course, almost certainly mean the Greens were excluded.
I am relaxed having talked to many non voters from the last election. I would be surprised if as a base figure 350,000 will show up this election. The Internet Party more so than any other political party will account for 150,000 to show up to vote. Labour will target the South Auckland vote now Mat McCarten is at the helm. NZF is gaining traction now people see a National alliance is out of the question.
Nothing is ever out of the question where Winston is concerned. He is very good at putting aside his ‘personal distaste and conflicting desires’ when high office and the accompanying baubles are concerned.
The one thing that’s missing from all this smokescreen talk on polls is the elephant in the room…Cunliffe’s leadership or lack of it. Forget all this nonsense of dabbling around the edges of the margins and margins of error, the Party has gone backwards in every poll since DC was elected as leader. Whereas David Shearer was showing a percentage point growth poll on poll for most of his tenure, Cunliffe has gone backwards at a huge rate of knots. Time has basically run out and all this margin stuff is only hiding the fact that as leader he has about as much chance of leading Labour to victory as the New Lynn LEC has of telling their Emperor that he’s not wearing any clothes. It’s too late to make a change before the election now but when Labour settles in for 3 more years in opposition will the membership start that term by getting rid of this nice but ineffective leader. More and more I’m hearing people say that David Shearer should never have been placed in the position where he felt a need to step down. He’s no longer the fumbler that we saw in the beginning and it feels like his time to lead as returned.
I admit Cunliffe is a in sticky situation. It isn’t really his fault any more than stagnant polls were Shearer’s fault. The’r simply up against something almost incomprehensibly difficult to combat – the John Key effect.
People genuinely respond to him. Hell, even I can’t escape the feeling that I wouldn’t mind going out for a pint with him, and (this is the clever bit) I can’t help but feel that he would enjoy it as well. Of course he wouldn’t – but the perception is there that he would. That’s (one reason) why people respond to him.
Cunliffe, and Goff and Shearer before him, are simply up against something they don’t seem equipped to fight. Goff’s experience and blokeish familiarity were not enough. Shearer’s Astonishing Back Story got him nowhere. Cunliffes (dubious) leftwing credentials, intelligence and passion don’t seem to be having any impact either. And now it is election year, so there needs to be something happening.
Truth is Shearer was actively undermined by the far left blogosphere – The Standard, Chris Trotter, Brian Edwards, Bomber Bradbury. A year ago Labour was on its way to victory, now its in damage control. Shearer is as likeable and as clever as John Key. All he needed was a party to back him. The Labour activists got this one wrong. Too bad that ego will be delivering another three years for National.
ahh John Key – girls want to be with him, guys want to be like him
You must admit, it would b quite cool to be able to say start anecdotes, “John and I were …”
Totally! like how cool would it be to have known hitler and say “Adolf and I were…”