Random 2019 predictions …

Written By: advantage - Date published: 7:30 am, December 22nd, 2018 - 114 comments
Categories: australian politics, Economy, Europe, International, uk politics, us politics - Tags:

Brexit doesn’t happen, government in stasis drags economy down as fast as if it did happen.

Labor comes to power in Australia, and starts furiously copying our policies. Smiling Australasian harmony breaks out.

Trump and sons indicted. Still contests nomination. Republican meltdown. US govt ceases meaningful function. Biden-Beto ticket forms late in year.

Malaysia first government to really take down Goldman Sachs.

Turkey massacres Kurds and no one defends them.

Oil heads for US$100 a barrel and stays there. Global economy slows to 2% but generally stable.

Tesla goes into statutory protection. Facebook plummets and is bought by Amazon.

NZ Budget 2019 has largest transfer of money to poor families in 50 years.

Carbon bill passes through Parliament with all supporting except Act.

NZ economy sings along, house prices stay flat. Continuation of longest boom in NZ history.

114 comments on “Random 2019 predictions … ”

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francesca 1

22 December 2018 at 8:49 am

Erdogan leverages the Kurds for all he can get from Damascus /Iran/Russia with delays in the taking of Idlib part of the deal.
Damascus does not want Turkey in possession of the Kurd held oilfields, so will come to the party.
The Kurds hand over the oil territory to Damascus in return for some fairly lame promises of increased autonomy, and protection from the Turks
The US will continue to wreak havoc in more covert ways

The war in Ukraine heats up ,Poroshenko attempts to extend martial law so more newspapers , radio stations can be shut down, and the 2019 elections cancelled.
Another Maidan erupts

Insurance companies declare that n they will no longer insure against certain types of “natural disaster” because they are human caused and could have been prevented with timely actions
- soddenleaf 1.1
  
  24 December 2018 at 11:10 am
  
  Crimea becomes a independent nation allied to Russia elect Muslim Tatar president, Ukraine joins NATO and retakes east. SYria dictator assassinated. Trump lasts to the end of term whereupon his successor pardons him, he has massive heart attack from paranoid belief it’s a giant conspiracy. Open session on indicting his family. Pence, lonely loathsome loser goes back into obscurity. Nothing is done about climate crisis, growing authoritarianism as govts shift to enforcement of actions on private industry since they won’t do anything themselves believing that the private market will solve the problem. UK Labour win landslide on promise to have a referendum on full integration and kill off the pound, since nobody believes that the voters would do that.
Anne 2

22 December 2018 at 9:42 am

Sounds like a very interesting year ahead. 😎
- greywarshark 2.1
  
  22 December 2018 at 11:04 am
  
  We live in interesting times will be said sagely for the 10 millionth time (or is it a billionth?)
OnceWasTim 3

22 December 2018 at 9:47 am

A number of senior public servants suddenly have an epiphany and a process of musical chairs begins. They become the ‘goto’ crowd in Hipkins public service reform processes and live to fight another day ………… or NOT
Kat 4

22 December 2018 at 9:54 am

National will implode in the face of an ever increasing popular govt and much loved PM. The Nat Chopper will remain on 24/7 standby ready to fly in the next champ for the blue team to have a serious tilt at the treasury benches in 2026.
- Chris 4.1
  
  22 December 2018 at 2:42 pm
  
  Jami-Lee Ross goes nuclear in the House early in the New Year and exposes a stack of Key’s lies over Dotcom, Afghanistan, and what ever else. He the blows the lid on the accusations against Bennett she shut down with defamation threats that puts an end to her career. He then knocks the last nail into Bridges’ coffin before Collins takes over. An atmosphere of Trumpesqueness develops around her which is very popular at first then wanes hopelessly before 2020.
  - Kat 4.1.1
    
    22 December 2018 at 5:17 pm
    
    Guyon Espiner leaves Morning Retort and hits the road to follow the wheelie tracks of the Hosk and Hoots in the search for the holy grail of ultimate spin. Winston brokers a deal that clears any developing cold shivers with China, Jacinda follows up with levels of public interaction that even Confucius couldn’t imagine. Trump is forced to eat a peach.
    - Marcus Morris 4.1.1.1
      
      22 December 2018 at 10:12 pm
      
      I hope so
  - soddenleaf 4.1.2
    
    24 December 2018 at 11:22 am
    
    Key? Wasn’t he some sort of p.m.somewhere?
    
    spin every which way.
Draco T Bastard 5

22 December 2018 at 9:57 am

Brexit doesn’t happen, government in stasis drags economy down as fast as if it did happen.

Which is only a little faster than what was happening anyway. The crash, which will make any shenanigans brought about by ‘investors’ as they try to double and triple clip-the-ticket during Brexit look like a summer holiday, is still on the way.

Trump and sons indicted. Still contests nomination. Republican meltdown. US govt ceases meaningful function.

Wonder if it’ll be enough to break the union once and for all. Do the states have a right to secede?

Oil heads for US$100 a barrel and stays there. Global economy slows to 2% but generally stable.

That’ll be an interesting show.

Carbon bill passes through Parliament with all supporting except Act.

I’m pretty sure that no one in National knows the words to Kumbaya.
Sabine 6

22 December 2018 at 10:07 am

the weather is gonna be even more fucked then it already is.

insurance companies will start to stop insuring properties that are in flood zones, fire zones and coastal.

The Kurds will fight, cause that is what they always have done, trump will continue to fart up the world, Putin will pleasure the men in need of a strong man with another ‘strong man riding a bear’ photograph, the rest of the world will hold their nose and avert their eyes all the while hoping not to get nuked for shits n giggles – or hope that if they get nuked for shits n giggles they be in the middle of it.
AB 7

22 December 2018 at 10:14 am

Sep 2019 – the Arctic is not quite ice-free, but it looks like the last, or last but one, northern hemisphere summer before that occurs. Increased release from methane hydrates in the Arctic Ocean noted.

Judith Collins takes over leadership of the NZ National Party – announces new law ‘n order initiatives including new prison building to handle a predicted 20-30,000 inmates (twice current levels). Becomes wildly popular and National gets 60% support in opinion polls.

Sustained drought in Australia sees their food production in decline. Tasmania and New Zealand start to become popular destinations. Australian cricketers caught cheating.

Trump administration stops Mueller investigation. Kavanaugh Supreme Court green lights a massive increase in voter suppression by state-level Republicans gearing up to steal the 2020 elections for Trump.
SPC 8

22 December 2018 at 11:30 am

Turkey massacres Kurds and no one defends them

This is the odd one out, the others are what you want to happen.
- Bruce 8.1
  
  22 December 2018 at 1:24 pm
  
  I’ll put my money on the Kurds , it will take more than the Turks to take them out, I’ll even go as far to say the men will probly stay at home leave to the women. No disrespect to the women.
  - greywarshark 8.1.1
    
    22 December 2018 at 2:25 pm
    
    Are you taking bets on who wins, what the body count is etc? You sound very sanguine Bruce.
    - SPC 8.1.1.1
      
      22 December 2018 at 2:47 pm
      
      The Turks have air power and tanks.
      - Bruce 8.1.1.1.1
        
        22 December 2018 at 5:35 pm
        
        Kurds have heart
    - Bruce 8.1.1.2
      
      22 December 2018 at 5:51 pm
      
      Yes I am positive for people who fight for their home and have done so against the odds for centuries, as opposed to kiwi’s who give it up for few pieces of silver. I have deep admiration for the ethnic armies in Burma who routinely give it to the British backed tatmadaw. But then again I would much prefer if we did not have to,’ Imagine’.
      - greywarshark 8.1.1.2.1
        
        22 December 2018 at 5:58 pm
        
        May you always be able to choose whether to fight, and watch from a distance. Could it come to NZ, this tussle for homes do you think? Or has it already, with a quiet takeover and control of our economy so people can never have homes. The ethnic armies here might have to give it to the ?? backed whatever.
      - Paaparakauta 8.1.1.2.2
        
        22 December 2018 at 11:12 pm
        
        Re. “I have deep admiration for the ethnic armies in Burma who routinely give it to the British”
        Should that be “gave” ? That was some time ago ..
        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burmese_Independence_Army
        
        Bruce 8.1.1.2.2.1
        
        23 December 2018 at 1:14 am
        
        No it goes on , just no one cares to report it.
        
        https://english.shannews.org/archives/18370
        From Dec 14 2018
Siobhan 9

22 December 2018 at 11:50 am

Democrats reveal one plan and one plan only to win election…reveal Trumps Tax returns.
After a year of meaningless debates and town hall meetings, the public ,struggling under decades of falling wages and crap health care plans, undrinkable water and an explosive opioid epidemic, simply don’t care and lose all faith in ‘Democracy’,
forming 100’s of armed militia groups,
Left wing and Right Wing, with #metoo holding the centre,
who then go on to create what future political commentators and historians despairingly refer to as the ‘American Spring’.
DJ Ward 10

22 December 2018 at 12:01 pm

Trump builds his wall.

If oil goes to $100 the economy crashes.

Any benifit increases in Labours budget will be confiscated by Landlords.

Labours family court reforms will appear to be gender neutral. The law Commision will announce the reforms are loved by everybody. With the afterthought comment “except men”.

No think big strategy to make Huntly power station redundant will occur.

Immigration will continue to support the housing market. See the benifit increases comment above.

The Democrates in the US will reform its leadership due to dead wood, and incompetence. Before realising Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is slightly insane, and doesn’t understand the costs or effects of any of her ideology.

ICE car fanatics will continue to be shamed by the performance advances of EV.

The financial advantage of Solar will see a large trend increase in its use. More Buisiness will invest in on site rooftop systems.

Elon Musc will announce the beginning of hyper-loop projects. Elon will send something to the moon probably a car. Elons Tesla will be overshadowed by the established mass manufacturing companies ramping up EV production.

Jacinda will continue to be Leader. 150 committees will morf into celebrations by the public service for Jacinda showing leadership, and being filled with great ideas.
- KJT 10.1
  
  23 December 2018 at 3:14 pm
  
  “Before realising Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is slightly insane, and doesn’t understand the costs or effects of any of her ideology” .
  
  Because policies, such as single payer, are insane?
OnceWasTim 11

22 December 2018 at 12:07 pm

Magic Elves will realise they’ve worked their chuffs off and they deserve a sleep in at least 2 days a week unless they’re paid time and a half on Saturdays and double time on Sundays
- Draco T Bastard 11.1
  
  22 December 2018 at 1:03 pm
  
  And double time for any work over 32 hours per week.
  - OnceWasTim 11.1.1
    
    23 December 2018 at 3:06 pm
    
    Wow @ Draco. We can’t give them too much leisure time. They might start breeding and there would we be?
    (/sarc …. in case it wasn’t bloody obvious you hard left nutter)
infused 12

22 December 2018 at 12:08 pm

A proper brexit would be the best thing for the UK long term. The EU is fucking hopeless.
- greywarshark 12.1
  
  22 December 2018 at 2:21 pm
  
  infused
  You are con-fused. Advise that your lighty is fused. No signal being sent from lighthouse. Imminent collisions unless repaired immediately. End of message.
- Yorick 12.2
  
  23 December 2018 at 12:05 am
  
  Bollocks. Henry VIII campaigned in the Italian war of 1542-6
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_War_of_1542%E2%80%931546
  The Brits have been involved in Europe for a long time and that will not change.
  
  Brexit is the result of parochial nationalists fed colonial delusions attempting to complete Thatchers ‘revolution’ . May’s formative political experience was evicting Carribeans who helped rebuild Britain. She is not Thatcher.
  
  Brexit now has the inevitability of a Greek tragedy unless people with broader experience assert themselves in a constructive way and confront methodologies
  like Cambridge Analytica.
  - soddenleaf 12.2.1
    
    24 December 2018 at 11:26 am
    
    brexit is the natural necessity to clearing the deck and fully integrating with the eu.
mary_a 13

22 December 2018 at 12:34 pm

My NZ political predictions for 2019 . . . .

Entering Parliament as an Independent MP, a healthier and refreshed Jami-Lee Ross begins round two of exposing the deceit and lies of Simon Bridges along with that of the Opposition.

This will create instability in Natz.

Mark “mercenary” Mitchell will make a bid for the Natz leadership as a result of JLR’s actions.

Some serious questions will finally begin to be asked about John Key’s tenure as PM, implicating other former Natz government senior ministers as well.

This will continue into 2020 giving rise to further chaos in Natz.

Jacinda Ardern will become one of the most talked about, as well as one of the most popular political leaders in the world.

The Ardern/Peters leadership will take the coalition government from strength to strength . . . .
- Rapunzel 13.1
  
  22 December 2018 at 2:32 pm
  
  Should this happen “Mark “mercenary” Mitchell will make a bid for the Natz leadership as a result of JLR’s actions.” it won’t be long after some of those who worked with and “for” him spill the beans on the “finer” (less fine in fact) details of that “work”, from what I have seen they will die in a ditch for each other when “on the job” but a lot of preening and b*tching happens once they get back to civvy street.
- cleangreen 13.2
  
  23 December 2018 at 9:40 am
  
  100% mary-a
  Regional rail will be restored again as rail will regain the top spot for ‘freight movements as oil reaches $125 dollars a barrel as the middle east war breaks out again.
  
  Republicans need another regional war to them electable in 2020 and call on Britain to help with the ‘new’ war.
  
  NZ remains stable as world is thrust into yet another recession.
  
  Carbon Bill passes and Labour shores up the regions as they prepare for 2020 elections.
  
  Labour/NZF Politicians are instructed to agree to read and meet with communities bon issues of their concerns in an attempt to show Labour as a Government that finally listens and supports their concerns in the face of a new Mark Mitchell smiling face of new electable ‘National party leader’.
joe90 14

22 December 2018 at 12:49 pm

Turkey massacres Kurds and no one defends them.

And tankies would rather leave the people the US presence protects to be slaughtered than speak out against the war criminal running Syria.

Defense officials tell me Mattis went to the White House to discuss Syria & that he was livid after reading reports that Turkey's Defense Minister threatened to kill US-backed Kurds & put them in ditches once the US withdrew. He was incensed at this notion of betrayal of an ally— Ryan Browne (@rabrowne75) December 21, 2018
- francesca 14.1
  
  22 December 2018 at 1:20 pm
  
  Yeah, Mad Dog Mattis is such a nice guy all of a sudden
  - Sabine 14.1.1
    
    22 December 2018 at 1:58 pm
    
    no he is not, that does not mean he does not have reason every now and then.
    
    good grief, sometimes there is no white there is no black that is just a pool full of muck and anyone who gets in it comes out stinking of manure, this is one of these times.
    - greywarshark 14.1.1.1
      
      22 December 2018 at 2:18 pm
      
      Sabine
      That is the definitive statement for the year. And possibly 2019 though might be a less toxic level of muck we hope.
      
      This is our reality and just have to grit our teeth and keep on trying for better. That sentence is a great answer to all the ideological fixes that people hopefully, passionately, produce for solving our troubles quickly.
    - Macro 14.1.1.2
      
      22 December 2018 at 2:30 pm
      
      In 1998, as a Brigadier General, Mattis stood duty on Christmas day for a young officer who was married, and would be apart from his wife and family. Mattis was single, and although senior officers do no have to stand duty, he did so. I think that that sort of action demonstrates the kind of person he is. We may not agree with his politics, his devotion to guns, and his desire to kill Taliban, but all good leaders, no matter who they are, must also display humanity and compassion for others in some form or other.
      - francesca 14.1.1.2.1
        
        22 December 2018 at 4:17 pm
        
        mmm
        and Hitler was a vegetarian who loved dogs.
        
        Macro 14.1.1.2.1.1
        
        22 December 2018 at 4:18 pm
        
        🙄
        
        Draco T Bastard …
        
        22 December 2018 at 5:49 pm
        
        There is a difference between displaying ‘humanity’ and actually having some.
        
        Psychopaths are notoriously good at displaying it. Doesn’t make them good leaders.
        
        McFlock …
        
        22 December 2018 at 6:23 pm
        
        And not every general or higher level politician is a psychopath.
        
        The only one who really springs to mind is Kissinger, mostly because he joked a few years ago about McNamara’s self reflection/recrimination while displaying none himself.
        
        And I suspect Trump has so many malfunctions that merely naming one would be a disservice.
        
        But most other folks, even people you abhor, are just broadly regular people making decisions in situations where there is no independently morally good course of action. “Will this bombing reduce the threat of terrorism” is a lot more grey than “should we send aid to the hurricane-hit island”.
        
        Draco T Bastard …
        
        22 December 2018 at 8:28 pm
        
        But most other folks, even people you abhor, are just broadly regular people making decisions in situations where there is no independently morally good course of action.
        
        IIRC, ~80% of the population are altruistic.
        
        ~46% of the population still vote National.
        
        greywarshark …
        
        22 December 2018 at 8:33 pm
        
        Could you give a bit more of your remembered info on the altruistic DTB. How was that measured? By regular donations to some charity? By helping someone pick up somethings dropped? By doing unpaid work to help others? By mowing the lawns and doing the dishes at home, ie sharing the workload!
        
        Draco T Bastard …
        
        22 December 2018 at 8:40 pm
        
        The IIRC was because I can’t recall the specific link and I’m too drunk to be bothered finding it.
        
        Search for it, it’s out there somewhere.
        
        McFlock …
        
        22 December 2018 at 8:43 pm
        
        Which is far removed from being a psychopath.
        
        Draco T Bastard …
        
        22 December 2018 at 9:16 pm
        
        Being drunk?
        
        McFlock …
        
        23 December 2018 at 8:29 pm
        
        voting National
        
        Macro …
        
        22 December 2018 at 6:43 pm
        
        I have no idea whether Mattis is a Psychopath or not (I suspect not).-Surprisingly being a General in the US Marines is neither a necessary nor a sufficient condition for one being a psychopath. If you have a Psychiatric assessment as to the truth of your assertion wrt Mattis being a Psychopath, then, as you are wont to say, (citation needed).
        As for comparing him to Hitler – well that is simply ridiculous.
        
        McFlock …
        
        22 December 2018 at 6:51 pm
        
        Ridiculous on a personal and criminal level, but also because Hitler was a complete debacle as a leader. Warfare between subordinates, departments with duplicated and conflicting responsibilities, confusing his memory for detail with expertise superior to that of his subordinates – if it weren’t for his absolutely enormous crimes overshadowing everything else, he’d be a case study in how to fuck up an organisation.
        
        Draco T Bastard …
        
        22 December 2018 at 8:24 pm
        
        I have no idea whether Mattis is a Psychopath or not (I suspect not).
        
        I’m reasonably certain that all Tories are.
        
        I haven’t looked specifically at Mattis but every single Tory I’ve seen on the news meets the requirements.
        
        But, but, how can you say that?
        
        More than twenty years of studying psychology.
        
        They may not have been born that way but they’ve certainly learned it.
        
        As for comparing him to Hitler – well that is simply ridiculous.
        
        No, it really isn’t. Hitler was a nice guy.
        
        McFlock …
        
        22 December 2018 at 9:18 pm
        
        Hitler wasn’t a nice guy. He was incapable of emotional intimacy, and even in social settings could go into rants if someone nudged a pushbutton topic.
        
        But as for your certainties about all tories, we are talking about the same thing, right? Because even thinking the worst of him, I can’t get Mattis much above 20 while keeping a security clearance and a successful military career.
        
        Macro …
        
        22 December 2018 at 9:27 pm
        
        Hitler was a nice guy!
        Well he painted and had a mistress.
        He was a meth and cocaine addict https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/wn7qk5/hitlers-doctor-said-the-dictator-almost-died-from-a-cocaine-overdose
        It has been suggested that he was in the tertiary stages of syphilis during the 1940’s, but it may well have been some other condition such as Parkinson’s or his addiction. Whatever it was – he was unstable and erratic and all accounts, by those who had to be around him, were that he wasn’t exactly the most approachable person, likely to fly off the handle at anything that disagreed with his, by then, highly distorted view of reality.
        
        Draco T Bastard …
        
        22 December 2018 at 9:29 pm
        
        But as for your certainties about all tories, we are talking about the same thing, right?
        
        Yes, we are.
        
        As I said, I haven’t specifically looked at Mattis but from what I’ve seen if they’re high enough up in the Tory hierarchy to be reported upon then the chances of them being psychopathic reaches close to 1.
        
        McFlock …
        
        22 December 2018 at 9:42 pm
        
        Draco,
        
        you’re full of crap.
        
        Getting a Hare score of 30 is highly incompatible with a successful career in the military. Sure, you can do the lack of empathy, but the impulsiveness and pathalogical lying and lack of behavioural controls and lack of long terrm goals and sheer inapplicability of things like conditional release revocations make it difficult for most politicians to get to thirty points, let alone someone who has achieved promotion to high rank.
        
        Draco T Bastard …
        
        22 December 2018 at 9:45 pm
        
        It has been suggested that he was in the tertiary stages of syphilis during the 1940’s
        
        But that means nothing.
        Having and STD != being psychopathic.
        
        Even being sexually promiscuous, despite McFlock’s link, doesn’t. I’d say that was an article of culture rather than psychopathy.
        
        Whatever it was – he was unstable and erratic and all accounts, by those who had to be around him, were that he wasn’t exactly the most approachable person, likely to fly off the handle at anything that disagreed with his, by then, highly distorted view of reality.
        
        Maybe, in the later years of his life. He was, after all, under immense stress.
        
        But my point was that psychopaths do, as a matter of fact, show huge signs of humanity.
        
        These are not necessarily signs of being human.
        
        https://brocku.ca/brock-news/2015/03/psychopaths-mimic-emotions-very-accurately-brock-study/
        
        “He was always so friendly, cheerful, polite.” “I don’t believe it – he was such a nice guy! How could he do something like that?”
        
        These are common reactions when finding out that someone we know, who’s seemingly empathetic, warm, and supportive, turns out to be psychopathic.
        
        But new research by Brock psychologist Angela Book shows that psychopaths are able to display emotions they don’t feel to the extent where everyone around them is convinced that those emotions are real.
        
        Macro …
        
        22 December 2018 at 9:48 pm
        
        “As I said, I haven’t specifically looked at Mattis”
        
        Well perhaps you should.
        
        Here are a couple of examples where he is said to have influenced Trump in a positive way:
        
        For instance, Mattis reportedly stopped Trump from ordering the assassination of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in April 2017, a move that would have escalated Syria’s brutal civil war and brought the US much deeper into the conflict. He also pushed Trump to stick to a diplomacy-first approach to North Korea rather than defaulting immediately to military options. And according to Trump himself, Mattis convinced him that torture is a bad idea.
        
        https://www.vox.com/2018/9/18/17869778/trump-60-minutes-mattis-democrat
        
        Draco T Bastard …
        
        22 December 2018 at 9:57 pm
        
        Getting a Hare score of 30 is highly incompatible with a successful career in the military.
        
        As I’ve said I’m autistic. I went through a few years worrying if I was a psychopath. Many of the personality traits are the same.
        
        One of the points that was raised (in my readings) is that a psychopath will get near perfect scores on personality tests. It’s not because they’re answering honestly but because they can determine the preferred answer from the question.
        
        Something I’m actually very good at BTW. High intelligence is one of those shared traits.
        
        Sure, you can do the lack of empathy, but the impulsiveness and pathalogical lying and lack of behavioural controls and lack of long terrm goals
        
        I would have said that psychopaths do have a long term goal. It’s to gain power over others.
        
        If they’re successful in that is another question and is dependent, IMO, if they’re in the higher IQ echelon or not.
        
        and sheer inapplicability of things like conditional release revocations make it difficult for most politicians to get to thirty points
        
        A high functioning psychopath will, most definitely, have a good character record with the military. Basically, anyone who got above Grunt.
        
        They do know how the game is played.
        
        Draco T Bastard …
        
        22 December 2018 at 10:03 pm
        
        Here are a couple of examples where he is said to have influenced Trump in a positive way:
        
        And he supported Trump’s tax cuts?
        And Trump’s elimination of Obama Care?
        And the wall?
        
        the question isn’t if he did these things but why?
        
        Is it because he’s human or because he saw it as a good political move?
        
        You know, same as law’n’order is a good political move despite being worse than completely fucken useless with psychopathic results?
        
        Macro …
        
        22 December 2018 at 10:10 pm
        
        I never suggested that having a STD was equivalent to being a psychopath.
        
        What I was saying was simply this:
        We know that in his latter years he was an extremely unstable and erratic person. This may have been due to advanced stages of syphilis, he was known to use meth regularly, and cocaine. We know he had a rather stormy relationship with Eva Braum. So this hardly fits in with the characterisation that he was a nice person.
        
        You however have not given any evidence that Hitler was a nice guy apart from a link that says he painted quaint pictures and had a mistress. Indeed the link simply raised the question as to whether or not anyone had any idea as to what he was like as a person. The only reply was that no one really had any idea apart from the personal account of those who had to be around him in his final years.
        
        Now I know you want every military person to be characterised as psychopathic – because that is your theory. But I’m sorry – having served in the military myself – I know that to be erroneous.
        
        McFlock …
        
        22 December 2018 at 10:13 pm
        
        They might know how the game is played, but they’ll fuck it up. Pathologically lie to the wrong person. Follow the wrong impulse, or hit someone they shouldn’t.
        
        And it’s a checklist, not a questionnaire. He won’t have been to jail, so wouldn’t have had parole revoked and “criminal versatility” is similarly inapplicable. He doesn’t have a history of multiple marriages. As career military, his behavioural controls will be excellent. His career path implies realistic long term goals.
        
        So that’s five out of twenty criteria that are inapplicable. If he scores the maximum of 2 for each of the remaining 15, he would reach the diagnostic threshold. If he’s not a promiscuous horndog, you might need to re-evaluate how you throw the term around.
        
        francesca …
        
        23 December 2018 at 8:56 am
        
        Macro
        Its not the first time Mattis fell out with a president. Obama sacked him for being too hawkish on Iran
        under his watch the Pentagon changed its mission statement,
        
        “For at least two decades, the Department of Defense has explicitly defined its mission on its website as providing “the military forces needed to deter war and to protect the security of our country.” But earlier this year, it quietly changed that statement, perhaps suggesting a more ominous approach to national security.
        …
        The Pentagon’s official website now defines its mission this way: “The mission of the Department of Defense is to provide a lethal Joint Force to defend the security of our country and sustain American influence abroad.”
        So we have” deter war “change to “lethal force.”
        Was there ever a war Mattis didnt like?
        It was him who persuaded Trump o increase troop numbers in Afghanistan and it was Mattis who was in charge of the carnage in Fallujah
        Falling out with Trump doesn’t make him a good guy.
        
        Robert Guyton 14.1.1.2.1.2
        
        22 December 2018 at 9:02 pm
        
        But not to eat…presumably…
        
        soddenleaf 14.1.1.2.1.3
        
        24 December 2018 at 11:29 am
        
        and hated Germany, leading it to a second defeat in a half century. Fascism eats its own.
  - joe90 14.1.2
    
    22 December 2018 at 6:37 pm
    
    No doubt you’ll be delighted to hear that this shit show is likely out of the hands of Mattis and co, and into the hands of Eric Prince, deputy chair and exec at Frontier Services Group, the most recent Blackwater iteration, and it’s new chair Chang Zhenming, an executive at China’s state-owned CITIC.
    
    I think the utilization of contractors to engage in more of a train & equip mission for local forces working with our allies to set up safe zones for people that are really trapped in a humanitarian crisis — those are things we can work on w/ allies & the international community. pic.twitter.com/tbDu7TjZvY— Rep. Matt Gaetz (@RepMattGaetz) December 21, 2018
    
    https://twitter.com/RepMattGaetz/status/1076166271299915781
    
    https://www.marinecorpstimes.com/news/your-military/2018/12/21/mattis-is-out-and-blackwater-is-back-we-are-coming/
    - Sabine 14.1.2.1
      
      22 December 2018 at 8:13 pm
      
      onwards to Afghanistan and Iraq.
      
      After all the orange turd once asked, why can’t we just take their oil and mineral wealth……
      
      and yet, a long time ago – i was still a child in Germany praying for the mujaheddin to defeat the russian invaders of Afghanistan i came across a comment from one of the warlords : invaders come and go, we live here. ….and thus like the English before them, and the Russians, the yanks will leave with their tails between their legs (what ever is left of that tail) and this will also be the issue with Mr. Prince, brother of Betsy de Vos. …
      
      I can’t wait for the orange shitshow to finally drain that swamp.
      
      AS for the Kurds, we have quite a few of those living in Germany, often times next to Turks – go figure, and i put my money on the Kurds. Mountain People are notoriously hard to defeat. Why? Mountains, i say. Hard to run up and conquer, hard to keep, especially if all you want to do as a young Turkish conscript (2 years mandatory military service) is to go home with all your limbs attached.
    - Graeme 14.1.2.2
      
      23 December 2018 at 8:22 am
      
      That Frontier out fit looks interesting.
      
      So China has bought (or re-possesed) their way into the outsourcing of America’s military adventures. I wonder how and why that deal went down.
      
      There’s also the possibility that China has bought Prince’s IP and expertise. And what could go wrong there.
  - joe90 14.1.3
    
    22 December 2018 at 8:41 pm
    
    When you’ve lost Chomsky….
    
    ERBIL (Kurdistan 24) – The US should stay in northern Syria to deter attacks against Syrian Kurds, well-known American linguist and political activist Noam Chomsky said in an interview with the Intercept last week.
    
    “The other crucial question is the status of the Kurdish areas — Rojava. In my opinion, it makes sense for the United States to maintain a presence which would deter an attack on the Kurdish areas,” he said.
    
    Chomsky noted that the Kurds have “succeeded in sustaining a functioning society with many decent elements” in Syria’s north.
    
    “The idea that they should be subjected to an attack by their bitter enemies the Turks, or by the murderous Assad regime, I think is anything should be done to try to prevent that.”
    
    https://t.co/PK3fPawLxr
- Draco T Bastard 14.2
  
  22 December 2018 at 2:42 pm
  
  You may not like this but the governance of Syria, and everything other country, is up to the people who live there.
  
  It is not up to us or the US.
  - SPC 14.2.1
    
    22 December 2018 at 2:51 pm
    
    The Turkish military entering Syria to kill its citizens is a thing.
    
    Syria could ask the UN for help to keep Turkey out of the area east of the Euphrates – and no one would veto that.
    - Draco T Bastard 14.2.1.1
      
      22 December 2018 at 5:44 pm
      
      Yep and that’s what they should be doing. In fact, they should have been doing that with the US invasion by proxy as well.
  - Andre 14.2.2
    
    22 December 2018 at 2:56 pm
    
    How do you feel about the Responsibility to Protect doctrine and whether it applies to the Kurds?
    
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Responsibility_to_protect
    - Draco T Bastard 14.2.2.1
      
      22 December 2018 at 5:46 pm
      
      So, when is the UN going to invade China, the US, Russia, and numerous other nations (Many of which are permanent members of the UNSC with veto rights) that are consistently trashing human rights?
      - Andre 14.2.2.1.1
        
        22 December 2018 at 5:53 pm
        
        Nice evasion of the questions.
        
        How do you feel about the Responsibility to Protect doctrine and whether it applies to the Kurds?
        
        Draco T Bastard 14.2.2.1.1.1
        
        22 December 2018 at 8:31 pm
        
        It obviously doesn’t apply – unless one of the major powers approves.
        
        I would love for it to do so but that would require the UN to implement Regime Change on China, Russia, the US and many other countries.
        
        It’s a nice sentiment but it simply doesn’t apply in reality. The only way that the Syrians (and everyone else) to get proper government is to stand up in their own country and make sure that it applies.
        
        That’s called democracy.
  - Ed 14.2.3
    
    22 December 2018 at 10:05 pm
    
    Joe90 is blinded by a visceral hatred of all things Russian.
    Glad his fingers aren’t on the button.
    - joe90 14.2.3.1
      
      22 December 2018 at 10:12 pm
      
      Says the poe faced malcontent with the boner for war a criminal and a corrupt, authoritarian thug who’s bleeding his people dry.
      
      btw, I guess Chomsky’s off the list
    - mauī 14.2.3.2
      
      23 December 2018 at 7:50 am
      
      Indeed, makes for quite an unpleasant evening.
OnceWasTim 15

22 December 2018 at 1:17 pm

The Board and CEO of Radio NZ, after having received salary and fee increases will preoccupy themselves with demographics, ways to ‘popularise’ its networks, market share and ‘efficiencies’.
All On-Air, production and admin staff will be placed on an hourly rate contract, with technical staff paid on the number of buttons pushed per hour, or volunteers drawn from the broadcasting school.
Discount rates will be negotiated with refugees from other media organisations, especially Mediaworks, Public Address, The Spinoff and Newsroom, as well as newbies from the broadcasting school.
Oh, and consultants will be contracted to undertake another rebranding and re-imaging exercise
- greywarshark 15.1
  
  22 December 2018 at 2:14 pm
  
  OwT
  Owch. You just got out of the bed on the wrong side, that’s your trouble! I predict it will happen again in 2019.
  - OnceWasTim 15.1.1
    
    22 December 2018 at 2:50 pm
    
    I’ve been sleeping on the couch actually. I didn’t realise we had a NZ TMZ but they’ve been leaking like a sieve as it happens.
    There are a number of things in the pipeline especially in regards to the long serving. They’ll either be dis-established unless they agree to a spot on Dancing with the Stars.
    So far, the only ‘juggles’ is who they should be partnered with, and in the context of gender equality, work-life balance and a number of other considerations, in the interests of popularisation and audience share growth. The new RNZ won’t exclude ‘contributors and so some of the new Dancing with the Stars partners will include Gavin Ellis with Irene Gardiner. Of existing staff some things are already settled: Kathryn Ryan with Simon Wilson (provided the producers can come up with a corduroy ensemble ); Karyn Hay is partnered with Colin Hogg; and Colin Peacock with Jeremy Rose.
    And then the board and CEO have to consider the demographic and popularisation aspects (going forward)
    But already, a number of programme re-imaging is well underway.
    
    TMZ tells me MUSIC 101 is to become MUSIC 201; The Sampler is to become the Well and Truly Sampled; Nights is to become Twilight to Dawn….. that’s so far. I’ll keep you informed (‘cos I’m SO in the know)
    Oh Hell, I forgot there was an inkling about how we should jooosh Matinee Idle up a bit – but that’s all in line with the seniors either being disestablished or re-imaged in some way.
    State of flux eh @ grey? Keep ’em all on their toes in the interests of commercial imperatives.
    - OnceWasTim 15.1.1.1
      
      22 December 2018 at 3:49 pm
      
      BTW, Let’s hope Alex Behan’s sign off isn’t an epitaph for all those he mentioned (and more) in 2019 …… (going forward). And that includes people in Concert FM darling
Cinny 16

22 December 2018 at 2:10 pm

Blessings to ALL it’s the Solstice 🙂
BM 17

22 December 2018 at 2:18 pm

Winston Peters to get a knighthood in the New Year’s honours after which he will be given a diplomatic posting and retire as an MP

Fletcher Tabuteau and Tracey Martin to succeed him.
millsy 18

22 December 2018 at 3:21 pm

The reality is that things will be much the same as they are in 2018. A few promises may be made, and words might be said, but they will turn to dust in no time.

That said, I’m picking National will make a serious approach to Lance O Sullivan to stand for them in 2020.
- Pete 18.1
  
  23 December 2018 at 1:52 pm
  
  He will fit in well with them given one interview I heard with him recently. Insinuations and prevarication rather than directly answer a question, trying to creating false impression for political reasons, not being truthful and the evasion casting aspersions on others.
  He will fit in well to the David Farrar and Mark Mitchell Schools of bullshit.
gsays 19

22 December 2018 at 3:41 pm

Y’all have missed the obvious: ABs win an unprecedented third world cup in a row.
Everyone tires of the term threepeat.
Pat 20

22 December 2018 at 3:50 pm

2019 will bring a huge upswing in civil disobedience/action to highlight the inaction on CC creating significant problems for govs, judiciary and general public.
- Tony Veitch [not etc.] 20.1
  
  22 December 2018 at 4:51 pm
  
  I sincerely hope so!
- Ed 20.2
  
  22 December 2018 at 10:05 pm
  
  Please make this be the case.
DJ Ward 21

22 December 2018 at 5:24 pm

MSM will continue to announce weekly, on every issue that the Presidency is facing the worst crisis in history. Trump will continue to calmly follow Pelosi criticism of Obama policy. Like Pelosi wanting Obama to be quicker in withdrawing from conflicts.

Mueller will announce Trump once met a Russian, an Englishman, and an Irishman. The MSM will announce the Presidency is facing the worst crisis in history.
Trump will get a new Secretary of Defence getting 1 closer to Clinton and Obamas totals.
- BM 21.1
  
  22 December 2018 at 6:40 pm
  
  It’s only places like NZ where you get the endless anti -Trump stories, none of that goes on in the USA, the average American doesn’t see what we’re seeing.
  
  You have to actively hunt for anti-Trump stories because news in the USA is so multi-layered.
  
  -Local/City news
  -District News
  -State News
  -National news
  -International news.
  
  Very few see anything beyond state news
- Siobhan 21.2
  
  23 December 2018 at 10:03 am
  
  The walls are closing in…
greywarshark 22

22 December 2018 at 5:53 pm

NZ economy sings along, house prices stay flat. Continuation of longest boom in NZ history.

Ad that reminds me of Basil Brush a children’s tv character; he was the Boom Boom Master.
McFlock 23

22 December 2018 at 6:28 pm

Trump and a son will be indicted, he will pardon them both.
Dennis Frank 24

22 December 2018 at 8:08 pm

Trump will confound everyone by becoming even more random. Started already: “Trump single-handedly propelled the US government into crisis and sent markets tumbling with his gambits this week to salvage signature campaign promises.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-jim-mattis-border-wall-government-shutdown-flipping-out-syria-withdrawal-conservatives-a8693916.html

Now I ask you, what kind of US president would willingly freak everyone out by becoming determined to honour campaign promises? An extreme non-conformist! Only a seriously flaky American politician would be that radical. The establishment must be shitting themselves.

“The president’s decisions and conduct have led to a fracturing of Mr Trump’s coalition. Hawks condemned his sudden decision to withdraw US troops from Syria. Conservatives called him a “gutless president” and questioned whether he would ever build a wall. Political friends began privately questioning whether Mr Trump needed to be reined in.”

“After campaigning on shrinking America’s footprint in overseas wars, Mr Trump abruptly declared on Wednesday that he was withdrawing US troops from Syria, a move Mr Mattis and other advisers counselled against. And officials said on Thursday that Mr Trump is preparing to send thousands of troops home from Afghanistan as well.”

Holy hell! Pulling the plug on both wars simultaneously? Nixon & Reagan will be spinning in their graves! “Mr Trump has been isolated in bunker mode in recent weeks as political and personal crises mount, according to interviews with 27 current and former White House officials, Republican lawmakers and outside advisers to the president, some of whom spoke on the condition of anonymity to offer candid assessments.”

“”There’s going to be an intervention,” one former senior administration official said speculatively. “Jim Mattis just sent a shot across the bow. He’s the most credible member of the administration by five grades of magnitude. He’s the steady, safe set of hands. And this letter is brutal. He quit because of the madness.””

“on Fox News Channel and across conservative media, there was a brewing rebellion. Prominent voices urged Mr Trump to hold firm on his wall money and warned caving would jeopardise his re-election. Rush Limbaugh dismissed the compromise bill on his radio program as “Trump gets nothing and the Democrats get everything.” Another firebrand, Ann Coulter, published a column titled, “Gutless President in Wall-less Country.””

“The president was paying attention. He promptly unfollowed Ms Coulter on Twitter.” Heavy, man. That’ll show her! “Members of the conservative House Freedom Caucus joined in the rebellion. During House votes on Wednesday evening, caucus chair Representative Mark Meadows, R-NC, and other members refused to budge and held court with reporters, railing against the Republican leadership and warning Mr Trump he was being led astray.”

“A band of hard-line conservative lawmakers voted against Mr Trump’s prison reform legislation, which passed the House and Senate with bipartisan support and is expected to be signed by the president on Friday.” Reforming prisons? That’s a dangerously liberal thing for him to be seen doing…
- KJT 24.1
  
  22 December 2018 at 9:57 pm
  
  Rather ironic if Trump gets sacked by the republicans, because he has withdrawn from some of their pointless wars.
  
  About the only reasonable thing he is doing.
  
  Of course, it cuts arms industry profits…….
  
  The US Government has been crazy for a long time. Trump is just a more obvious manifestation.
  - soddenleaf 24.1.1
    
    24 December 2018 at 11:33 am
    
    Trump did not get a wall when Republicians controled both houses, now the republician Senate won’t pass his wall spending cos he said Mexico would pay for it. lol. Trump isn’t a fool, he’s just having lots of fun.
    - soddenleaf 24.1.1.1
      
      24 December 2018 at 11:34 am
      
      oh and the democrats are to blame. lol
Dennis Frank 25

22 December 2018 at 8:16 pm

Trump will confound everyone by becoming even more random. Started already: “Trump single-handedly propelled the US government into crisis and sent markets tumbling with his gambits this week to salvage signature campaign promises.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-jim-mattis-border-wall-government-shutdown-flipping-out-syria-withdrawal-conservatives-a8693916.html

Now I ask you, what kind of US president would willingly freak everyone out by becoming determined to honour campaign promises? An extreme non-conformist! Only a seriously flaky American politician would be that radical. The establishment must be shitting themselves.
- Dennis Frank 25.1
  
  23 December 2018 at 6:09 am
  
  The site robot didn’t want to publish #24 (due to the stricture against block quoting, I presume) so thanks to the moderator for releasing it from the pending file. I tried a couple of shorter versions but the robot was so pissed off with me by then that it filed both as well. #25 was the shortest of those. Sorry about seeming random. Will try not to get habitual about it (lest trumpian tendencies emerge)…
mauī 26

22 December 2018 at 8:35 pm

Ed to make the New years honours list, and Sir Ed to be stripped for faking the ascent of Everest.
Pete 27

22 December 2018 at 9:47 pm

I predict some idiot representing the Taxpayers’ Union will organise a media stunt to release information about some situation which casts the Government in a bad light. And the situation and the diabolical waste of money being highlighted won’t in any way match the sort of money involved in the infamous Saudi sheep deal.
Pete 28

22 December 2018 at 9:49 pm

And apropos of that I predict someone as undeserving as Murray McCully will be on the Honours list.
Ed 29

22 December 2018 at 9:56 pm

Financial crash in 2019.
- Ad 29.1
  
  23 December 2018 at 6:56 am
  
  You’ve said that every year.
  - Ed 29.1.1
    
    23 December 2018 at 7:09 am
    
    I am not alone in saying this.
    I would love it if I was wrong.
    
    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/10/style/2019-financial-crisis.html
    
    https://www.sheppnews.com.au/@opinion/2018/12/07/354647/opinion1111-2019-housing-could-crash-the-australian-economy
    
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/dec/11/imf-financial-crisis-david-lipton
    
    https://www.newsweek.com/recession-2020-cfo-economy-market-crash-general-motors-verizon-trump-2019-1255426
    
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/raulelizalde/2018/12/17/another-warning-that-a-2019-recession-is-coming/
    
    Even Liam Dann is pessimistic….
    
    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12179475
patricia bremner 30

23 December 2018 at 8:12 am

In 2019 it will become fashionable to form locally funded social business hubs, such as the Te Puke Post Office is going to become.
The corporate model will be spurned with many blaming them for climate change causes, and a model of ‘think local’ will evolve. Some takeovers will result as businesses fight to devour market share, only to see it keep shrinking in the new environment. those who thrive will have a co-operative model.
Peer to peer lending will grow and philanthropic small loans will increase for home businesses using internet, the current banking model will be seen as flawed and controlled by big business.
Small nimble countries will be seen as sound investments and will need to use laws to protect from traders in money and assets, perhaps through taxes.
The ethical green economy will be the favoured life style with investment through ethical funds which will underpin climate change efforts to move away from carbon.
Education will again focus on teaching people critical thinking skills and teamwork.

That was fun.

I do know Jacinda Ardern will work skillfully to lead her team to implement their promises.
I believe life will get better for a great number of NZers, and those waiting have been given hope that their lives will improve.
The foundations laid will underpin a greater effort in 2019 and 2020. Let’s do this.
The opposition will use their money and their membership to disrupt and harass.
Their negativity will not be attractive, and leadership will be mixed.

Have a good break everyone.
cleangreen 31

23 December 2018 at 9:51 am

In 2019 RNZ will be completely broken up to become a regional notwork as it was formerly again.

Not as a HQ ‘Dunedin based one eyed outpost’ and instead ‘RNZ will finally become a voice for all provinces as the promise that Labour gave in 2017 turned to dust.’
- joe90 31.1
  
  23 December 2018 at 2:06 pm
  
  Radio New Zealand sold the regional ZB network in 1996.
  - OnceWasTim 31.1.1
    
    23 December 2018 at 2:19 pm
    
    That’s a bit like saying the NZBC decided to break itself up. (Not that the end result was all a bad thing)
ropata 32

23 December 2018 at 1:59 pm

Aussie banks are shitting themselves over the housing market right now. Could be some rude shocks next year- housing demand (at current inflated rates) has been totally killed by banking reg enforcement.

New Zealand’s banking review this year was utterly pathetic. Another review is needed with broader scope- there are systemic problems caused by successive NZ governments- and the chickens will come home to roost next year. The NZ economy continues to be propped up by mass immigration and turning all the spare land and water over to dairy. Jacinda makes a brave face of it and points to social welfare gains. Only about 100 kiwibuild homes are completed, the whole programme is “refocussed” in order for Labour to wriggle out of its crazy promise

China will continue exerting soft power across the whole Pacific region and NZ will be no exception. USA will get antsy about it but largely ineffectual as its internal squabbles leave foreign policy confused and neglected. Trump’s Wall never gets built. Canada and China come to terms. Trudeau does something totally pathetic and embarrassing.

UK leaves the EU but the Tory government implodes and Corbyn takes over. The EU becomes an increasingly shambolic mess as it is exposed as an anti democratic tool of the banks and the 1%. Nationalism gains in strength all over Europe. Deluded policies of massive third world immigration are utterly discredited. Marine Le Pen becomes PM of France. Sweden falls to Islam and becomes a repressive nightmare. South Africa turns to shit and the Boers dig in, a lot more urban-dwelling white Saffers emigrate here and to Australia.

Global warming refugees become more numerous and press the borders of neighbouring nations. Clean water shoots up in value. Driving cars is seen as increasingly gauche as PT and active modes become the norm.