Rightwing policies hit Nats in latest poll

Written By: - Date published: 8:57 pm, May 30th, 2010 - 78 comments
Categories: polls - Tags: , ,

Another bad poll for National. Support for the Tories in the latest Colmar Brunton poll has dropped from 54% to 49% since April. The gap between Right (National and ACT) and Left (Labour and Greens) has fallen from 18% to 11%. The same pattern as seen in the Roy Morgans.

National needs to break that trend but with the unpopular ideological decisions coming one after another, serious questions about Key’s trustworthiness, and the Nats signaling they’re going to fight the next election over privatisation, it’s a trend that’s set to continue.

You’ve also got to keep an eye on New Zealand First. The poll hasn’t reported NZF’s rating yet but 2.2% of the Right’s former support is unaccounted for and I’m betting NZF has picked it up. Winnie’s close to 5%.

Guyon Espiner takes National’s falling support as a rejection of the Budget, which is very interesting. The initial coverage was so glowing, because the journos saw the size of their own tax cuts I guess, and on the back of that it was framed as popular. But the voting public don’t seem to be fooled. We see a tax swap where a handful of people come out way better off and we are smart enough to work out that the money didn’t come out of thin air, it came out of our wallets.

I actually expected that the Budget would give National a bump in the polls, even if only thanks to all the gushing reporting. I guess we’ll just have to wait for the next Roy Morgan, it’s the only one that’s regular enough to show real trends.

78 comments on “Rightwing policies hit Nats in latest poll ”

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  1. infused 1
    30 May 2010 at 9:04 pm

    I don’t think the budget has anything to do with it.

    • Marty G 1.1
      30 May 2010 at 9:06 pm

      elaborate? Or is it ‘bald statements in place of argument’ night at chez infused?

      • infused 1.1.1
        30 May 2010 at 9:47 pm

        Marty, you’re the last person I’m going to have a constructive argument with. Not that I can’t, not that I’m too lazy, it’s just you don’t listen. It’s a waste of my time.

        • Marty G 1.1.1.1
          30 May 2010 at 10:10 pm

          you can always fuck off then, mate. Comments are for explaining your position, not just stupid assertions that you can’t back up.

          • Armchair Critic 1.1.1.1.1
            30 May 2010 at 10:32 pm

            Let’s run with the “nothing to do with the budget” theory, Marty. Just as a hypothesis for now. After all, it might not be a bad thing.
            I tend to agree the budget has not had that much of an impact, yet, but that’s just my opinion.
            When I first saw this I thought “rogue poll”. Well actually that was my second thought, first came a quiet cheer for National dipping below 50%.
            I think it takes a while for people to absorb the various actions of the government and this drop is the cumulative effect of a whole lot of issues over the last six months or year. Mining, Auckland amalgamation, whaling, national standards, financial improprieties of ministers, the smile and wave approach – it’s nothing specific but it all adds up.
            So it could be good news, the idea that the budget was a wealth transfer to the is taking hold, and the benefits will be seen in the polls over the next couple of months. And they would be in addition to what you see here.
            Unless, of course, it is just a rogue poll. And in any case, it is still mid-cycle and it’s the trends, rather than the actual numbers that are important.

          • Croc 1.1.1.1.2
            31 May 2010 at 4:13 pm

            Keep your language moderate, it’s a family blog (albeit an often raucous and rowdy family in comments)

            Wouldn’t want my family reading comments like this Marty. If this is moderate language then please explain to me what is immoderate?

        • felix 1.1.1.2
          30 May 2010 at 10:11 pm

          Others are listening, even if Marty isn’t.

          Would you lay out you thoughts for the rest of us?

          Dan, below, makes a good case for the budget being only partially responsible. What do you think about his reasoning?

  2. I dreamed a dream 2
    30 May 2010 at 9:07 pm

    To be honest, I am shocked. I had expected National’s polling to bump upwards a little after their tax-cut bribe of a Budget. I thought National had blindsided Labour with the bigger than expected tax cuts in the budget. And I was thinking that next year they’ll throw in another tax bribe by moving the tax thresholds upwards.

    What this poll is telling me, if confirmed by other polls, is that National’s most potent weapon, i.e. Tax Cuts, does not work anymore. They have run out of bullets. Other policies that they have will not help them. Tax Cut is their silver bullet, or that’s what I thought.

    The left is in with a real chance in 2011.

    • jc 2.1
      30 May 2010 at 9:16 pm

      Depends who you define as the left? None of that support has gone to Labour… I’m all for a left victory, but jesus christ, there has to be something to vote for.

      • I dreamed a dream 2.1.1
        30 May 2010 at 9:23 pm

        Well, there are things from the left that I do not agree with, but I am for a more just and compassionate society, and that’s why I am for the left (centre-left). 🙂

      • just saying 2.1.2
        30 May 2010 at 9:30 pm

        ‘Not quite as bad’ isn’t cutting it with the electorate. Time to try being Labour again?

    • Lazy Susan 2.2
      30 May 2010 at 9:49 pm

      Likewise, I’m surprised.

      I think there was an initial positive reaction to the budget as the low and middle income tax cuts, small as they were, had been unspected.

      This honeymoon was very short lived however and it soon sunk in that all but the people on high incomes would ultimately be worse off with this budget. This has added to the growing realisation by many Kiwis that National is not the centerist party they projected themselves to be in the 2008 election campaign. The feeling among many of the voters is that they’ve been duped and they don’t like it. I suspect this trust issue is going to gain real legs in the run up to the 2011 election.

      National carefully spins to try and hide it’s real agenda as it knows it is unelectable if it is honest.
      Trust is definitely where the opposition should be attacking NAct. The Super City debacle is likely to throw up ample opportunity to do this.

  3. Dan 3
    30 May 2010 at 9:19 pm

    It is only partly explained by the budget.
    People are reacting to the NACTs paying out to their mates: the Supercity shambles in Auckland; the appalling lack of democracy that saw eCanz demolished in Canterbury; the prospect of national parks being bulldozed for mining; the appalling policy on the hoof in Afghanistan where Key is committing our young folk to a doubtful war; etc, etc.
    When an ANZAC service in Nelson is reminded by a long serving military dignitary that our war dead died to protect democracy, and yet they would have turned in their graves at what had happened with ECANZ…… the NACT party need to rely om more than a smile and wave, and focus groups.
    Key has been the only positive thing that NACTs have, and when his feet of clay are exposed with his wine and dairying connections, the polls will drop even further.

  4. gobsmacked 4
    30 May 2010 at 9:20 pm

    “The last Colmar Brunton poll was in November”

    Um, it was in April. Which makes the 5% drop even worse.

  5. Michael Foxglove 5
    30 May 2010 at 9:29 pm

    Yep. Only a month ago. Interesting that National’s lost support has gone to Maori or Green…

    Or I wonder if the switch is more complicated than that. Did National’s lost support move to Labour, and Labour voters shift Green/Maori? Anyone here fit the bill of the latter?

    • Che Soffe 5.1
      30 May 2010 at 10:02 pm

      I fit the bill of a Labour supporter that has recently moved over to a green supporter.

      • Marty G 5.1.1
        30 May 2010 at 10:12 pm

        I’d suspect there’s quite a bit of that – not too many going straight from Nat or Act to Green, but ones going to Labour and Labour supporters unhappy with Goff going to Green.

        • just saying 5.1.1.1
          30 May 2010 at 10:24 pm

          Not just with Goff, it’s a much broader dissatisfaction than that IMHO.

          • Outofbed 5.1.1.1.1
            30 May 2010 at 10:39 pm

            Labour has more chance in the centre then the Green Party, I for one am quite happy for us to mop up labour’s lefties

            • just saying 5.1.1.1.1.1
              30 May 2010 at 11:05 pm

              But are you happy for them to actually be National-lite to achieve this purpose? Mopping up some of the left won’t serve much purpose if it’s still a National government with a different name.

              • ianmac …
                31 May 2010 at 10:25 am

                I have Green sympathies but have given the Party vote to Labour for fear that without Labour, Green couldn’t make a difference. Could I please trade in my canditae vote for two party votes?

    • bobo 5.2
      31 May 2010 at 2:40 am

      I was thinking that, like a shunt to the left where some Labour voters have moved to the greens and Maori party.. I guess the Maori party isn’t termed as left though after mostly voting for this budget..

      • Jenny 5.2.1
        31 May 2010 at 8:20 am

        I agree with you Bobo, the Maori Party could end up anywhere. It may all depend on how the left react to them.

        If, as we saw in Britain, the Brown government’s policy of sectarianism “stone walling” and zero compromise towards the Lib Dems, meant that the Tories only had to offer up minor compromises to their policies, for the Lib Dems to jump right.

        The good news here in New Zealand, is that Goff Goff has announced that he is prepared to support the Maori Party’s private members bill for the removal of GST off healthy food.

        It will be interesting to see if the Maori Party reciprocate and vote for Goff’s private members bill for the return of ECAN to democratic control.

        If both of these, what I expect to be very popular policy moves. are jointly taken up by both Labour and the Maori Party supported by the Greens. This will see the Nacts increasingly isolated in parliament, even to the point of becoming a lame duck administration.

        Good job.

        • the pinkpostman 5.2.1.1
          1 June 2010 at 2:52 pm

          At this moment Im afraid the Maori party will not turn to Labour or Greens to support. Tariana Turia’s obsessive hatred of Helen Clark still dominates her actions.There is no chance of the Maori Party supporting a Labour Government whilst she and the Nats supporter Sharples are the Leaders . The one hope Labour has is that Maori people return to their roots and come back to Labour. That would be the sensible thing to do .However Labour must listen to what Maori want.

          • gingercrush 5.2.1.1.1
            1 June 2010 at 3:13 pm

            What a bunch of baloney. This bullshit Turia’s hatred of Helen Clark and no way would she form a coalition with Labour is well bullshit. Labour was not in a position to form the government in 2008. 2011 could well be different. Sharples in particular would fit in far more with Labour than National. The Maori Party are interesting because on social and economic policy they’re rather left-wing but on both areas of policy they share things with the right.

            At the end of the day Maori support the left therefore the Maori Party’s natural home is a centre-left coalition. Though if Labour really wants to get the Maori Party onboard they need to decide where they stand on issues such as DRIP and take a far better position on the foreshore and seabed bill and not attack the Maori Party as they prone to earlier this year and last year. In the end if 2011 is pretty even Maori would prefer to work with Labour and the left. That would require negotiation on some matters. But if Labour are in a strong position (i.e. more than just the numbers to get a majority) then the Maori Party will work with Labour.

            As for Maori people going back to their roots. Why? They get five Maori Party electorate MPs and give their party vote to Labour. Its the best of the both worlds as far as Maori are concerned.

            I do think a relationship between the Maori Party and Labour would be far more contentious than a National-Maori Party coalition despite Labour and the Maori Party having more in common. There’s higher expectations and less ability to differentiate from one another. Labour would have greater difficulty than National in appeasing Maori interests and those of pakeha. It would be a very difficult balancing act.

  6. Adrian 6
    30 May 2010 at 10:02 pm

    I’ve heard the line ” we’re paying extra for tax cuts for their rich mates” quite a few times last week , most notably from people who were previously not much interested in politics. It’s a real own goal to arc up a normally uninterested populace. Just wait until councils set their rates at over 10% next June, the shit will really hit the fan. On that note, plan for a May election.

    • jcuknz 6.1
      30 May 2010 at 10:39 pm

      We can credit that to the mis-information campaign by the left being effective.

      • Draco T Bastard 6.1.1
        30 May 2010 at 11:22 pm

        The misinformation and outright lies tend to mostly come from the right. The left tend to stick to facts.

      • Marty G 6.1.2
        30 May 2010 at 11:46 pm

        what misinformation are you talking about? These silly empty statements suggest you have nothing to back up what you’re saying

        • jcuknz 6.1.2.1
          31 May 2010 at 9:37 am

          The whole left campaign has been mis information and scare tactics .. such as the forecast of 5.9% inflation which may or may not happen sometime in the future. Then there is the rubbish about stealing from the poor to feed the rich, instead of the borrowing to stimulate the rich and remembering that when payback time comes it will be the rich who pay back most of it while the workers will benefit from the improved ecconomy if it works out. I do not believe for one moment that either side have a correctness monopoly.

          • RedLogix 6.1.2.1.1
            31 May 2010 at 9:53 am

            such as the forecast of 5.9% inflation which may or may not happen sometime in the future.

            And here was me thinking that this came from a Treasury report.

            • jcuknz 6.1.2.1.1.1
              31 May 2010 at 7:48 pm

              Does Treasury always get it right? thought they were a favourite target of the left.
              Whatever, forecasts are such and may well not actually going to happen. Though may help tub-thumpers trying to make their point. It is not that much more than currently and most people will have got taxcuts to help meet increases caused by the budget if not the ETS which was dreamed up by Labour anyway. If only the government would put it on hold until our trading partners bring in matching schemes.

              • Pascal's bookie …
                31 May 2010 at 8:03 pm

                Those forecasts are the only thing making the budget come even within cooee of not blowing out massive structural deficits. If you are going to discount the forecasts on the inflation, (which is far more predictable than the growth), then you are kind of stuck with saying that the tax ‘cuts’ are just a transferring of taxes into the future with an interest bill attached.

              • RedLogix …
                31 May 2010 at 8:06 pm

                The whole left campaign has been mis information and scare tactics .. such as the forecast of 5.9%

                So this isn’t you? You claim it’s misinformation from the left, and when I prove that it’s from Treasury you try for the mis-direction.

                Drill baby drill.

                • jcuknz …
                  1 June 2010 at 8:50 am

                  ‘5.9%’ …. All I am saying is that what happens in the future is uncertain and you jump on me for stating the obvious and convieniently ignore the major bit of mis information that the rich are being given money from the poor. That was the theme of Adrian’s comment at 10.02 May 30th which spurred me to make my original comment. The 5.9% is a guesstimate but the other is typical class warfare mis-information. The truth of the matter has been explained by several writers over the past week or so and I think I came up with the idea that with the reported 30/70% of tax paid by low and high income earners it is obvious to me that while the rich are being given more today, funded by borrowing rather than being taken from low income earners, they will repay more when payback time arrives.
                  I suppose I should be happy with the result of the campaign as a leftie, but I dislike mis-information even when by ‘my’ side..

    • Lanthanide 6.2
      30 May 2010 at 11:38 pm

      Budget is normally in May, yes? National won’t want to jeopardize the budget, unless some unprecedented global emergency breaks out (like widespread acknowledgement of Peak Oil, I expect that’s still 2-3 years away though) that gives them the excuse to ‘seek a mandate’ to make significant changes.

  7. jcuknz 7
    30 May 2010 at 10:35 pm

    Shouldn’t you have used a blue line on the graphic? and a level red one to show Labour’s position in the polls, unless you include the Greens as a sub-group of Labour? 🙂

  8. Outofbed 8
    30 May 2010 at 10:47 pm

    Curia’s poll has Lab ,Green and MP on 58 seats
    Allowing for a bit of a overhang, There only need to be another three/four seats change and its all on
    That should be achieved easily by Goff falling on his sword also maybe time to reach out to the MP eh Labour?

  9. ak 9
    30 May 2010 at 10:52 pm

    This is quite staggering so soon after Tuhoegate and the msm-fellated budget: remove the standard Colmar bias and pencil in Winnie and the MP either going with Lab or sitting out (both increasing possibilities), and its Left well ahead with a huge Local Govt hurdle just round the corner. It’s down to that thousand-cut thingy with the super-encouraging signs that Maori-bashing is losing its sting.

    NACT’s internal polls will show an even more depressing picture, which explains the current panic including the rapid backing-off on privatisation and Mauler’s latest benny-bash. Great news: hammer that mining, local democracy and privatisation, Labour, while the iron’s hot.

  10. Daveosaurus 10
    30 May 2010 at 11:20 pm

    It’s interesting to see that, as reported on the TV tonight, the National Party’s support has declined while the Māori Party’s support has increased. I wonder how much of that is due to the National Party’s ill-advised attempt to snatch the racist vote back off ACT by doing the dirty on the TÅ«hoe negotiators.

  11. Draco T Bastard 11
    30 May 2010 at 11:34 pm

    To be honest, I’m not really surprised by this.

    People aren’t stupid and they know that the tax cuts for the rich far exceed the other tax cuts so there’s a very real awareness that NACT increased taxes on the many to cut taxes for the rich. Throw in inflation and wage cuts over the last two years and a lot of people are already worse off than they were before the election. This budget not only didn’t address that but it also made the poor worse off and made the rich richer so Jonkeys “want wages to drop” is presently very real for a lot of people. Jonkey’s “don’t envy the rich, just give them more money” line probably didn’t go down too well either.

  12. Sanctuary 12
    31 May 2010 at 7:29 am

    You what would be hilarious? National winning the most seats at the next election, ACT vanishing, and together with the MP not having enough seats to govern unless they talk to Winnie.

    Bye bye privatisation agenda, come on down and take a bow MMP – an electoral system frustrating our extremist right wing oligarchies for fifteen years.

  13. vto 13
    31 May 2010 at 9:04 am

    drop in polls shouldn’t be surprising… look how the nats have alienated people in Auckland with the supercity, Canterbury with ecan and then the budget tax adjustments and GST. And people are well aware that the ETS is about to make everyday life more expensive too.

    • zimmer 13.1
      31 May 2010 at 10:14 am

      How much would the Lab/Grn ETS cost, shed loads more, would be interesting election debate. Goff would send NZ to the IMF real quick if he was in power with borrowing for increased welfare.
      Hope ETS gets canned, but not holding my breath.
      Also, when it comes in for dairy the NZ public will pay more to subsidise exports as Fonterra cannot increase price on international markets but can in NZ.

  14. tc 14
    31 May 2010 at 9:24 am

    Driving past Mark Hotchin’s horrendous mansion in akl last night and noting that others are curious as to this ‘structure’ made me wonder if the NACT may cop a backlash on behalf of the Hotchin’s etc who’ve effectively swindled many mums and dads ……another downside of pandering to the wealthy and telling the majority of kiwi’s to not be jealous. The politics of arrogance.

    • zimmer 14.1
      31 May 2010 at 10:15 am

      The Finance companies collapsed due to Labours in adequat rules. Do you think Goff will bring this up as an election issue?

      • Armchair Critic 14.1.1
        31 May 2010 at 10:28 am

        “The Finance companies collapsed due to Labours in adequat rules”
        Really? Are you sure it had nothing to do with mismanagement by the Atlases running the companies? Nothing at all?

      • Draco T Bastard 14.1.2
        31 May 2010 at 1:37 pm

        No, it was actually the people at the top ripping people off and then turning round and saying “but it wasn’t against the rules” as an excuse for their immoral behaviour.

  15. Zaphod Beeblebrox 15
    31 May 2010 at 9:43 am

    The electoral system will make voter behaviour very difficult to predict next year.
    For instance, are these figures for List or Electorate votes- do people interviewed understand the difference?

    Maori party voters for example may could give their list votes to the MP (which will have no effect) or Labour or even National. If a lot of them decide their situation is not good next year many may well give their list vote to Labour (as they did in ’08)which will push up Labour’s list vote. Either expect Key to suck up MP voters big time.

    An what of the ACT-National vote exchange (seen in operation in Epsom in the past)? If a MP-Nat coalition is on the cards many Nat voters may switch to ACT or even NZF, which will definitely weaken Key’s hand in forming a coalition.

    I agree with those who feel some swinging voters have gone to Labour, some Labour voters have gone to the MP and the Greens although some Nat voters may have gone to NZF. Either way there is a definite swing to the left going on here. I’m surprised no one has mentioned the Kiwibank thing though.

    Next Morgan Poll will be interesting they usually trend to the left.

  16. Brett Dale 16
    31 May 2010 at 1:00 pm

    So you guys believe in polls now?

    • Lanthanide 16.1
      31 May 2010 at 1:24 pm

      People around here have said repeatedly that they are interested in trends, not individual polls.

      In this case we have the continuation of a trend, and more importantly the poll was conducted directly in the period after the budget that was widely claimed to be “good” for the Nats, and yet their support has dropped anyway.

      Of course, you already knew that.

    • The Voice of Reason 16.2
      31 May 2010 at 1:26 pm

      He he. Very good, Brett, but to be fair, most commenters here seem to accept Roy Morgan polls as accurate, even if they’re not pretty reading (ie. the last 3 years). The polls the left don’t like are the obviously cynically worded (Curia springs to mind) or just plain idealogically innacurate (every one ever in the Herald).

      A lot has to do with sample sizes, technology (homelines only rung, excluding most young people) and the actual wording used (such as the recent cock ups by soon to be ex-mayors Laws and Banks).

      But, obviously, the only one that counts is the one on polling day. That’ll be sometime around May/June next year, I reckon.

  17. gingercrush 17
    31 May 2010 at 3:03 pm

    This post should go in the stupid pile. How one can determine what NZ First’s numbers are from this poll is beyond me. If they had an inkling of high support for NZ First the poll would have said so. What makes a better headline than “Winston Peters on the comeback”. How the left can celebrate Labour still stuck at 34% and Goff at 6% is beyond me.

    As for this line that Labour support went to the Greens and the Maori Party just doesn’t make sense. Greens at 5% is artificially low and surely does not reflect the support they have in New Zealand therefore surely the conclusion one should make is that last time round the Green’s vote base was not counted. Maori Party’s number going up might reflect a switch to them but more likely is that more of its voters were reflected in the poll.

    As for how this poll determines what people thought of the budget. I just don’t think polls move that fast. Whether people liked the budget or not its difficult to foresee how that would be reflected in the poll so early.

    So why did John Key and National’s support go down. Contentious policy issues that rankle New Zealanders and more realistic positioning of where people presently stand in this country. And of course last time round TVNZ’s poll was out of whack with others.

    I just don’t see why the left celebrates a poll and make assumptions of that poll that well aren’t realistic.

    • Pascal's bookie 17.1
      31 May 2010 at 4:24 pm

      As for how this poll determines what people thought of the budget. I just don’t think polls move that fast. Whether people liked the budget or not its difficult to foresee how that would be reflected in the poll so early.

      Budgets are the one time a whole lot of people give a shit about politics. It’s a decision point, if you like, something they look at and think about. Other issues like mining, scandals, ETS, 3 strikes etc might be things they hear about, but don’t really think about; or only think about if they care about it, or whatever. Those sorts of things can take time to show up in the polls. Budgets ain’t like that.

      So why did John Key and National’s support go down. Contentious policy issues that rankle New Zealanders and more realistic positioning of where people presently stand in this country.

      Are you angling for an MSM jobbie covering this stuff?
      Their numbers went down because there was some controversial shit went down that some people didn’t like and the polls reflect that some people didn’t like said controversial shit? I understand water flows downhill on account of the water starting at the top and readjusting itself to the bottom. Also.

      My main question about this poll is, as always, where are the don’t knows at?

      • gobsmacked 17.1.1
        31 May 2010 at 9:34 pm

        Gingercrush’s question was answered by the follow-up poll on tonight’s One News.

        It was a poll on the Budget. People didn’t like it.

        Guess that’s what happens when you have proper weighted polling instead of self-selected activists paying to vote by text.

        • gingercrush 17.1.1.1
          31 May 2010 at 10:07 pm

          That isn’t what the poll numbers said.

          Why TVNZ and Colmar Brunton didn’t just ask, “Do you approve of the budget” is beyond me but they didn’t.

          Do you think you will personally be better off as a result of the Budget?

          37% Yes
          53% No
          10% Unsure

          Do you think the budget is good for the economy?

          61% Yes
          25% No
          14% Not Sure

          Do you think the budget is fair

          51% Fair
          40% Not Fair

          —-

          I would have said that was mixed result. But certainly doesn’t tell you people didn’t like the budget. Especially with the left and this site saying people don’t believe the budget was fair yet more people are saying it is. And the left are saying its not good for the economy yet 61% said it was.

          • Pascal's bookie 17.1.1.1.1
            1 June 2010 at 7:24 am

            Nah, those are crappy numbers for the government mate.

            Only about half the people thinking it’s fair (MoE rules out calling a majority), and at most 4/10 thinking it makes them better off. those are the questions about what people think of the budget, The ‘good for the economy’ one is pretty much asking them for a prediction, so won’t matter politically as the truth or otherwise will become apparent.

            National has bet the farm on a strong recovery. For all our sakes we better get one.

  18. yorick 18
    31 May 2010 at 4:10 pm

    Does this sound familiar ?

    The source for current NZ National party poicy ?

    http://www.wsws.org/articles/2010/may2010/dole-m29.shtml

    Yorick

  19. I dreamed a dream 19
    31 May 2010 at 4:36 pm

    Farmers float idea of political party

    “Farmers are talking about forming a rural political party in reaction to the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS). Tim Fulton from New Zealand Farmers Weekly says Federated Farmers is fiercely opposed to the scheme and there’s good reason for farmers to get out there and object.”

    Isn’t that interesting? If they do form a party and suck votes from National, then it’s game over for the Nats for sure.

    And a little reading of history tells me that the National Party was formed from a merger of rich city folk parties and rural parties. Wheel turning full circle for National?

    • ianmac 19.1
      31 May 2010 at 4:58 pm

      Trouble is that they would just be a group further rightwards. No help to the left.

      • RedLogix 19.1.1
        31 May 2010 at 5:04 pm

        True, but if the right vote was seriously split it would take the steam out of the ‘the party with the most votes should get first crack at forming a coalition’ line.

        But I doubt very much if a Farmer’s Party would get much traction. Fed Farmers have fewer than 20,000 members after all. Historically the main thing the farmers brought to the table was cash, not votes. (And young men on horses happy to crack skulls…)

    • Draco T Bastard 19.2
      31 May 2010 at 5:21 pm

      I’d be quite happy for the farmers to start their own political party. Sure, it’d be hard right whing and as authoritarian as Caesar but it’d at least show just how irrelevant they are. They may get almost as many votes as ACT.

      • Zaphod Beeblebrox 19.2.1
        31 May 2010 at 10:08 pm

        Probably a bit dangerous to generalise. Just because the Fed. Farmers have been taken over by right-wing ideologues does not mean they all want to gut regulation, slash welfare and have no schools or council services. They after all need all these things as much as the rest of us.

        The problem for them is that Labour is influenced by middle class intellectuals and National by big business interests. National find their votes convenient but when it comes to spending money of things like rural roads or rural development- they pretty much get ignored.

        So starting up their own party may actually make some sense- if they can get to 5% or take an electorate. Its called satnding up for your own rights. If the Maori party and NZF can do it- why shouldn’t they.

    • Jim Nald 19.3
      31 May 2010 at 7:47 pm

      Reckon it’s just talk.
      The right, and farmers included, are better at swallowing dead rats. Especially when their own dish them out.

        • RedLogix 19.3.1.1
          31 May 2010 at 8:51 pm

          Not smart to generalise like this. The farming community has been going through massive changes in the last few decades. The absurd price of land is hurting them badly and distorting their behaviour in much the same way it has for residential property owners. The mere fact of there are rumblings around a Farmer’s party tells you that they too are not happy with the direction this country is going in.

          Like most folk they actually work really hard at a difficult business. Many care for their land and their environment in ways most townies never see. Some even vote for the Greens. Insulting, alienating them as people is counterproductive and foolish.

          Fed Farmers as a political organisation…is a different target altogether.

          • Jim Nald 19.3.1.1.1
            31 May 2010 at 8:55 pm

            Hmm. Thinking about this.

          • fatty 19.3.1.1.2
            31 May 2010 at 9:32 pm

            Well of course I don’t mean every single farmer, FFS, thats pretty obvious.
            Just the same way this article does not assume every new farm is destroying New Zealand.
            http://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/3657642/New-farms-destroying-native-New-Zealand

            What I pointed out was the farmers are getting a huge payout, overpriced diary products are going to be more expensive and their is serious environmental issues they (not all) are responsible for.

            You are right in that some farmers vote Green, there are some trustworthy organic farmers that knew that the last Labour government oversaw more destruction of the environment than any other governmental term in our history (although Nat is on the way to beating that).
            How hard a farmer works is irrelevant, if they are destructive it would be better if they worked less or went bankrupt like that Crafar redneck. Its not foolish to want a better environment.
            And of course they are not happy with the government, National is now a centrist government like Labour, a people pleaser. National have moved away from their traditional base, including the farmers and are just moping up swing voters in the middle.

            • RedLogix 19.3.1.1.2.1
              31 May 2010 at 9:47 pm

              What I pointed out was the farmers are getting a huge payout, overpriced diary products are going to be more expensive and their is serious environmental issues they (not all) are responsible for.

              I agree, yet bizzarely many farmers are only returning 2-4% profit on the amount of money tied up in their farms. It’s the banks who are doing the real farming here…farming us New Zealanders for cash.

              Excessive debt is the real enviro-crusher here.

              • fatty …
                31 May 2010 at 10:09 pm

                True….hence the importance of Kiwibank, perhaps if the government offered farmers an incentive (lower interest) via Kiwibank, with the catch that they must comply with tight eco standards. The environment can only be cleaned up by the farmers, but at the moment there is little incentive for farmers to be eco-friendly as its cheaper to dump their shit in the rivers and risk a fine.
                I know Crafar is an extreme example, but how many farmers have over invested, much the same as property investors. Is that why they are only at 2-4% ? Or is the market that tight? I always thought it was hard to find a poor farmer, unless they have over-invested

              • gingercrush …
                31 May 2010 at 10:21 pm

                Sorry I find such an argument stupid. Farmers are responsible for making their income on capital gains and via tax back rather than through income. That has been classic farmer situation for a number of years. Certainly we can argue rules around how much capital banks should be allowed to lend, interest rates, lending ratios etc etc etc. But that’s a government matter as well. You I presume voted Labour when they were in government. Therefore, you can’t deny that under their watch we saw excessive house and land inflation. That saw less people own property and more people renting. Saw more people take advantage of the tax system to pay less tax and saw more and more people get capital gains without actually paying any tax on those capital gains. At the same New Zealand has very relaxed laws around ownership of land, capital and housing that allows foreigners to invest in New Zealand.

                Ultimately its the government that is responsible for the criteria and laws surrounding the Reserve Bank and interest rates. It is the reserve bank that must police the rules around bank lending to farms.

                Therefore, it comes off as pathetic to bash banks when farmers and the government are just as responsible. And you voted for a government that did nothing to prevent house and land inflation.

      • the pinkpostman 19.3.2
        1 June 2010 at 3:12 pm

        Not all, but most farmers are a greedy selfish lot . They still pay low wages to their workers and expect them to work long hours.
        They mostly agree that they do well under Labour Government, and they agree that the best Agriculture ministers have all been Labour ( Sutton ,Moyle , and Anderton) but still go like sheep to vote National. Because they produce the first stages of food they still think they are the ‘Back -Bone’. Of course they forget the huge amount of workers who make their produce saleable .

  20. Shazzadude 20
    31 May 2010 at 7:06 pm

    The “other” margin has hovered between the 1 and 2% mark for past Colmar Brunton polls, so New Zealand First will be sitting at between 3.5 and 4.5% in that poll.