Another bad poll for National. Support for the Tories in the latest Colmar Brunton poll has dropped from 54% to 49% since April. The gap between Right (National and ACT) and Left (Labour and Greens) has fallen from 18% to 11%. The same pattern as seen in the Roy Morgans.
National needs to break that trend but with the unpopular ideological decisions coming one after another, serious questions about Key’s trustworthiness, and the Nats signaling they’re going to fight the next election over privatisation, it’s a trend that’s set to continue.
You’ve also got to keep an eye on New Zealand First. The poll hasn’t reported NZF’s rating yet but 2.2% of the Right’s former support is unaccounted for and I’m betting NZF has picked it up. Winnie’s close to 5%.
Guyon Espiner takes National’s falling support as a rejection of the Budget, which is very interesting. The initial coverage was so glowing, because the journos saw the size of their own tax cuts I guess, and on the back of that it was framed as popular. But the voting public don’t seem to be fooled. We see a tax swap where a handful of people come out way better off and we are smart enough to work out that the money didn’t come out of thin air, it came out of our wallets.
I actually expected that the Budget would give National a bump in the polls, even if only thanks to all the gushing reporting. I guess we’ll just have to wait for the next Roy Morgan, it’s the only one that’s regular enough to show real trends.