RM: Labour jumps 6% – LAB/GR coalition leads

Written By: - Date published: 4:16 pm, July 17th, 2015 - 232 comments
Categories: Andrew Little, polls, uncategorized - Tags:

Looks to me like Labour did not need to head right with the red meat and pro-bosses ‘keep the right to fire’ agenda in order to get ahead. And ahead they are when considered in tandem with the very necessary Green Party, in a very strong showing that Labour could have been proud of. 14 days of polling started on June 29 and finished July 12 (last Sunday).

During July support for National fell 6.5% to 43% now trailing a potential Labour/Greens alliance 45% (up 6%) for the first time in over a year – since May 2014, according to the latest Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll. If a NZ Election were held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that the centrist NZ First would be in a position to determine New Zealand’s next Government.

RM Jul 2015

And confidence in John Key’s Government has “plunged”:

The latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has plunged to 118pts (down 17.5pts) in July. A slim majority of NZ electors 51% (down 11.5%) now say NZ is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 33% (up 6%) that say NZ is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Key and his advisors will be very nervous now. This is not the post Budget reaction that they will have wanted to see. But at least now we also know what an Andrew Little led Labour Party is actually about.

232 comments on “RM: Labour jumps 6% – LAB/GR coalition leads ”

  1. Michael 1

    Playing the race card ought to give “Labour” a further boost. Pity it needed to descend into racist stereotyping but the ends always justify the means don’t they?

    • Thom Pietersen 1.1

      O yawn, bloody yawn. It’s a flock mentality on the racism thing.

    • I’m really sorry that the analysis indicated that the overseas buyers were from China. If they were from Sweden (probably even easier to analyse from surnames) it would be better but that is not where the money is coming from. It has nothing to do with racisism and everything to do with National doing nothing as Auckland is sold to the world from underneath all of us including our Chinese fellow New Zealanders. How can Phil show there is a problem and make some noise about it when there are absolutely and deliberately no stats to show what is happening? Interesting caller RadioLive explaining the methodology (from surnames) which they also used in the US to calculate hispanic demographics for the provision of social services etc. or was that racist too? *

      • Chooky 1.2.1

        +100 Westie chick….and is it racist to mention that the Maori taonga swamp kauri is heading illegally to China ?

        • Clemgeopin 1.2.1.1

          Holly chook! There are so many non PC terms in your sentence there! ….

          Westie, chick, maori, kaouri, taonga, China!…Whoops, China! What ever you do Chooky, don’t mention the C word! …Damn, come to think of it, your name is a C word too! C-hooky!

          • Chooky 1.2.1.1.1

            lol…us chooks never pretended to be PC middle class….too boring…I like Winnie who calls a spade a spade…and gets in there for the tackle

          • Michael 1.2.1.1.2

            That’s right – we can’t have political correctness when we can have bigotry and racist abuse instead, can we?

            • Clemgeopin 1.2.1.1.2.1

              Twyford and Labour did nothing of the sort. Use your brains, Micheal! Don’t lie!

              It is Brash & Joyce and their ‘Kiwi-not-Iwi’ racist stunt that you should be worrying about!

        • Michael 1.2.1.2

          No, it isn’t, unless you also claim that the kauri is being illegally exported because it is Maori taonga. Is that what you are saying?

        • lurgee 1.2.1.3

          Yes, if you did it by appealing to anti brown or anti yellow sentiment.

      • Michael 1.2.2

        Yes, it was racist to profile Hispanics as disprortionate users of welfare services in the US. I agree that National is doing nothing to stop rampant peroprty speculation in Auckland, in particular by non-resident speculators. OTOH, it’s probably in the Nats’ interests to let the bubble continue to expand while hoping it doesn’t burst on its watch (its supporters feel rich, and therefore virtuous, because their property values keep rising). FWIW, I think Labour should announce credible policies to restore equilibrium to the Auckland property market, such as a big tax on capital gains by non-resident investors. If Twyford and co do this, I’d be the first to congratulate them. But AFAICS, they haven’t done anything of the sort. Shame on them.

    • Mike S 1.3

      FFS..If I said that someone with the surname Jones probably has Welsh ancestry am I being racist? Everyone harping on about racism needs to get a grip. Nobody is suggesting that the Chinese are somehow an inferior race. Suggesting that someone with a Chinese surname has a good chance of being Chinese is just logic and common sense, it’s nothing whatsoever to do with racism. Our surnames are how we commonly identify ourselves for goodness sakes!

      The fact is that the leaked data shows that buyers with Chinese names are way out of proportion with the number of Chinese residents and citizens, which to anyone with an ounce of common sense would suggest that a large proportion of those buyers are probably not residents or citizens. It’s just data interpretation, not racism. Common sense would tell us that anyone crying racism over this is obviously a real estate agent, or a National / Act supporter, or has never been the victim of real racism.

      • Michael 1.3.1

        The issue is non-resident ownership of residential properties in NZ: it is irrelevant whether those non-residents are Chinese, Swedish or Martian. However, Labour chose – deliberately it seems – to highlight Chinese non-residents as the cause of the problem. That is racist. The problem has existed for many years, under successive governments: the one in office between 1999 and 2008, for example, could have enacted restrictions on non-resident ownership but chose not to. Doubtless, rapidly inflating values of residential properties in Auckland not only enriched many caucus members but also their “new friends” among the metropolitan bourgeoisie. Why Labour changed the tune of its dog-whistle now probably had more to do with its realisation that the metropolitan bourgeoisie deserted in 2005, apparently forever, and it was time to pitch towards the prejudices of other parts of the electorate. Will it work? Time will tell. I wish, however, that Labour had the intellectual grunt and moral courage to devise progressive policies that will lead New Zealand into the modern world while not compromising the party’s core values.

        • One Anonymous Bloke 1.3.1.1

          So Labour manipulated the data? That’s the implication of your assertion that they “chose” to highlight anything.

          Yeah yeah, I know, you can’t back your blather, and you believe it very very hard.

          • Michael 1.3.1.1.1

            Not sure how you reach that conclusion from my post. I did say that Labour used the race card by highlighting people of Chinese ethnicity and blaming them for the Auckland residential property bubble – which is both (a) racist and (b) untrue. The real driver, IMHO, is speculation by non-resident investors, some of whom are domiciled in mainland China, but not all. I think Labour’s actions will bite it hard. At least I hope so.

            • One Anonymous Bloke 1.3.1.1.1.1

              Yes, you clearly believe what you’re writing. It’s based on a false premise. That doesn’t matter to you though.

        • D'Esterre 1.3.1.2

          @ Michael: “Labour chose – deliberately it seems – to highlight Chinese non-residents as the cause of the problem. That is racist.”

          No it didn’t: please do take the trouble to find out the facts. All names were analysed. This isn’t racist; and even if Labour had deliberately highlighted Chinese non-residents, it still wouldn’t be racist. You’re utterly wrong on this matter.

          • Michael 1.3.1.2.1

            Why is not racist to single out a particular racial group and discriminate against them by blaming them for a social problem that is not entirely of their making?

        • Clemgeopin 1.3.1.3

          “Labour chose – deliberately it seems – to highlight Chinese non-residents as the cause of the problem

          Nope, not deliberately.

          Labour highlighted Chinese non-residents as one of the causes of the housing price rice problem because it is so in Auckland.

          Anyway, that specific issue has nothing to do with the latest RM poll which was done before the Twyford’s analysis of the real estate agency data. The RM poll result is the topic of THIS post, and not about the non resident Chinese foreign speculative investments in Auckland housing. That is a different topic.

          The next series of 3 to 5 polls will give a better indication of politically what is happening with voter sentiments.

      • Clemgeopin 1.3.2

        +1

        Well said. You have hit the head right on the nail.

      • left for deadshark 1.3.3

        And don’t forget the Australian banks, mind you they are out the back putting the farmers down.

    • D'Esterre 1.4

      @ Michael: “Playing the race card ought to give “Labour” a further boost. Pity it needed to descend into racist stereotyping but the ends always justify the means don’t they?”

      You do know how facile this is, don’t you? People are concerned by what they see at auction over and over: uncontrolled house-buying by overseas-based Chinese pushing house prices out of reach of other NZers. And you fling the racism epithet at Labour because Twyford had the temerity to release analysis that prima facie supports that concern?

      The term “racism” has been appropriated by NGOs and other well-meaning . do-gooder groups, and applied to anyone who, in their view, says anything mean about members of ethnic groups different from their own. This isn’t racism, of course, though it might be bigotry and prejudice, neither of which are hanging offences, by the way.

      Racism entails power: governments can be racist – think of apartheid in South Africa, and segregation, along with preventing blacks from voting, that pertained in the US. Or the Holocaust of WW2. Individual people can’t be racist.

      Face the facts: there is definitely cause for concern about what’s happening in the Auckland property market. We’re entitled to say so, and to name the problem for what it is. This is a free speech issue: don’t try to shut people up by flinging insults about.

      • Michael 1.4.1

        “You do know how facile this is, don’t you? People are concerned by what they see at auction over and over: uncontrolled house-buying by overseas-based Chinese pushing house prices out of reach of other NZers. And you fling the racism epithet at Labour because Twyford had the temerity to release analysis that prima facie supports that concern?”
        But Twyford didn’t do that – he blamed everyone with a Chinese surname for causing residential property prices to Auckland to rise uncontrollably. If he fingered non-resident speculators as the cause, regardless of their ethnicity, he’d have been right; OTOH, he wouldn’t have blown a convincing note on his dog whistle, would he?
        “Racism entails power: governments can be racist – think of apartheid in South Africa, and segregation, along with preventing blacks from voting, that pertained in the US. Or the Holocaust of WW2. Individual people can’t be racist.”
        Absolute bollocks – of course individuals can be racist. So can opposition political parties.
        “This is a free speech issue: don’t try to shut people up by flinging insults about.”
        I’m not shutting anyone up – you’re free to make a fool of yourself as much as you like. But you are wrong about racism.

        • D'Esterre 1.4.1.1

          @ Michael: “he blamed everyone with a Chinese surname for causing residential property prices to Auckland to rise uncontrollably. If he fingered non-resident speculators as the cause, regardless of their ethnicity, he’d have been right; OTOH, he wouldn’t have blown a convincing note on his dog whistle, would he?”

          It is as I suspected: you don’t really know what Twyford said. Try this:

          http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11478719

          Scroll down through the article, and you’ll find the graphs. You do understand, don’t you, the caveats he put around the analysis? The only dog whistle here is the racism one, which you and others seem hellbent on blowing, against a mountain of evidence to the contrary.

          “Absolute bollocks – of course individuals can be racist. So can opposition political parties.”

          You really do need to go do a good deal of reading on this subject. You are mistaken. Prejudice, xenophobia, bigotry: these are all the preserve of the individual. The power of the state is required to give effect to prejudice by establishing systems and institutions of society which validate it. Moreover, to be racist, the state must act on a belief that the group being discriminated against is inferior, and the group doing the discriminating is superior. None of that is relevant to the situation with regard to the Auckland housing market.

          Would you also accuse the citizens of Vancouver of racism? See this:

          https://ca.news.yahoo.com/soaring-vancouver-home-prices-spur-anger-toward-foreign-052644854–sector.html

          “I’m not shutting anyone up – you’re free to make a fool of yourself as much as you like. But you are wrong about racism.’

          You won’t shut me up: I’m made of sterner stuff than that! But you will shut down debate, because many people, whose understanding of racism is as shaky as yours, and who don’t much like being called names, will back off and stay away from the debate. And finally: I’m right and you’re wrong.

    • Eralc 1.5

      The poll only went to 12 July (the day after the property ‘stats’ were featured in the media). It will be interesting to see what impact (if any) that will have on future polls.

  2. maui 2

    People finally losing faith in National… Could be the impact of the McCully Saudi sheep scandal and Smith selling off crown Auckland land without consulting Maori.

  3. Bill 3

    Looks to me like Labour did not need to head right with the red meat and pro-bosses ‘keep the right to fire’ agenda in order to get ahead.

    Depending how you read what Little said, he’s essentially restoring the law to what it was before. There always was a period where an employer could fire a worker. But they had to follow process and be fair about it.

    I’m picking a certain amount of media beat-up in the way it’s being reported.

    • mickysavage 3.1

      Agreed Bill. This is what the law used to say:

      “67 Probationary arrangements
      (1) Where the parties to an employment agreement agree as part of the agreement that an employee will serve a period of probation or trial after the commencement of the employment,—
      (a) the fact of the probation or trial period must be specified in writing in the employment agreement; and
      (b) neither the fact that the probation or trial period is specified, nor what is specified in respect of it, affects the application of the law relating to unjustifiable dismissal to a situation where the employee is dismissed in reliance on that agreement during or at the end of the probation or trial period.
      (2) Failure to comply with subsection (1)(a) does not affect the validity of the employment agreement between the parties.
      (3) However, if the employer does not comply with subsection (1)(a), the employer may not rely on any term agreed under subsection (1) that the employee serve a period of probation or trial if the employee elects, at any time, to treat that term as ineffective.”

      This is the provision that existed under the ECA that Labour passed. A return to this would be acceptable to the Trade Union movement and is consistent with what Andrew said.

      • Darien Fenton 3.1.1

        Um : the policy says : “Labour will restore workers’ right to contest dismissals during the first 90 days of employment by abolishing the current government’s Fire At Will law” I think the ambiguity surrounding Andrew’s comments today are a PR problem that needs sorting quick smart.

        • McFlock 3.1.1.1

          yeah – I strongly suspect he tried to package it in a “business friendly” way that simply gave the tories ample room to turn it into a backdown.

          Next we’ll be seeing lovingly-timed pics of him looking flustered or frowning (sorry, saying a word with the letter ‘m’) with headlines saying “Little denies ‘weasel words’ in 90-day backdown” and other unbiased headlines and commentaries from our completely impartial fourth estate…

      • Aaron 3.1.2

        Y

      • Aaron 3.1.3

        You mean to say the whole time this 90 day law was going through there was already legal provision to do set up probationary arrangements? This must have happened before I started reading TDB and TS because I had no idea that was the case.

        I mean, I know the MSM is crap but they still manage to amaze me!

    • RedLogix 3.2

      I thought it was quite clever positioning – most people are ok with the idea of employers being able to let go people who are just not going to work out. And to be able to do so with minimal risk of ending up in Court.

      But at the same time they also buy into the idea that an employer needs to follow a fair and defined process in good faith.

      It was always the ‘being able to sack someone with no rhyme or reason’ aspect of the Nats legislation that we generally objected to here at The Standard. Simple and basic competency was all we were asking of employers.

    • Olwyn 3.3

      I thought the same – Andrew Little may well see the need to court certain sections of the right, but it would be unlike him, as he has shown himself to be so far, to then proceed to burn off the workers and the unions. Even if he was tempted, he has seen the outrage Shearer ignited with this kind of thing.

  4. rhinocrates 4

    Unfortunately, if the 90-Day fire at will legislation is any guide, it’ll be a case of “Meet the new boss – same as the old boss.” Thankfully we have MMP.

  5. Eyre 5

    Do polls only count when the left go up.

    • infused 5.1

      Uhh, yeah?

      • the pigman 5.1.1

        Oh come on confused, you’ve trolled hard enough and long enough to know that the RM always gets a post on the standard.

        Since Eyre is probably some banned troll posting under a new pseudonym new around here, we can’t expect them to know better..

        But from YOU, confused, I expected better…

        • b waghorn 5.1.1.1

          Oh don’t be to hard on poor little in infused at least he’s shown up not like the heroes puckish rogue and fisiani ,there probably crying quietly in the dark somewhere.

  6. Tommo 6

    At last,just maybe the tide is on the turn.There is so much happening,the Nat supporters are starting to see through the bullshit spin,lies and more lies from the PM,Joyce and the rest of their Puppets or maybe better described as Muppets.Oh how the mighty are falling…with so many events yet to be answered ie Sabin,Ponygate,Swamp Kauri,Real Estate sales to non NZ residents,Jason Ede,Zero Hour Contracts etc,etc the list can go on and on and on.
    Just see on Twitter Goofy Gower having yet another crack at Labour c’mon Journalists stick to facts,report impartialy try and regain some honour to your profession.

  7. maui 7

    Lowest Government Confidence Rating since September 2013 – almost 2 years.

  8. McFlock 8

    A bit bouncy for my taste, but a good direction.

  9. b waghorn 9

    I think its proof that people are liking the way Little is performing he’s giving the other MPs plenty of opportunity to shine and its making them look like a winning team.

    • Ben 9.1

      Translated – Little has kept a low profile over the last month or so and therefore not made any major gaffes. Maybe I missed it, but what MPs are shining? Twyford has polarised, but certainly not shined (rolled in glitter perhaps?).

      The poll closed 12 July, which was when Labour released the Chinese data. It will be interesting to see the next RM poll as it will good measure of the feeling around the issue.

      • b waghorn 9.1.1

        Don’t take it to bad there Benny boy, keys had his turn and he’s made a sows ear out of the silk purse that was gifted him buy dairy prices and all that insurance money because he’s surrounded him self with a bunch of greedy, power hungry, incompetent and in some cases crooked little rwnjs.

        • Anne 9.1.1.1

          And yet a another “experiment” is going belly up. The much lauded new Mt Eden privately run prison is in turmoil. Prisoners are out of control and the staff are powerless to stop them. Their numbers were cut in the eternal quest for profits and they’re now reaping the consequences.

          • b waghorn 9.1.1.1.1

            How they think for one second introducing a profit motive into any social service and not have it go badly defies belief.

        • maui 9.1.1.2

          Last year there was an article I remember reading from Sean Plunkett that talked about NZ being known for it’s lack of corruption. Unfortunately I believe this Government all by themselves has severely tarnished that image by leading in corrupt practices that will probably damage us and for a very long time too. Something all nat voters can be proud of when they look back on this reign…

          • b waghorn 9.1.1.2.1

            Yes I’m hoping the next government will put in place laws to increase transparency around elections and party funding . and that’s for a start

          • Jenny Kirk 9.1.1.2.2

            I agree with you 100% Maui – NZ’s clean green no-corruption image has taken a real battering under this govt.

        • Ben 9.1.1.3

          Maybe I missed it, but what MPs are shining?

          Still waiting on your answer.

          • b waghorn 9.1.1.3.1

            I’ve seen solid performances from several including Twyford on the nation the other day so you’re either thick. blind , mischievous or not paying attention ,do try harder

      • Sabine 9.1.2

        well at least Andrew Little stays in the country when it gets cold and rainy.

        Where is John Key at the moment? Holidaying in is batch in Hawaii? Obviously there is nothing he can do in NZ that would be of value 🙂

  10. Dan1 10

    It was never a rascist call on the housing issue. It was using one of the few statistics available to show how overseas ownership and investment is stuffing up home ownership for NZers. Real estate salesmen make their $$$ whoever the house is sold to, so are very much in favour of the current reality.
    If the Nacts can produce other figures, that is fine. Let’s see them.
    Many have commented on investment rules elsewhere. Let’s use them.
    Go Little. Your forthright integrity and telling it as it is is gaining credibility. The pony-tail tugger is on the slide.

  11. Sanctuary 11

    Everyone says that the government doesn’t want to do anything about the Auckland housing market on their watch because the bust will be electorally as well as economically a disaster for the ruling party. But such is the scale of the current bubble that everyone knows it can’t last, and people think National is in complete denial about it.

    The lower exchange rate is making the middle class feel poorer – that overseas holiday just keeps getting more expensive.

    Diary prices are spooking even the townies.

    And the provinces are finally getting fed up with being fed culture war bullshit whilst being completely abandoned.

    Yesterday for the very first time a pro-Key “aspirational” co-worker of mine muttered about Key being in Hawaii at the moment, saying he should be back here dealing with the housing issues. BTW, this co-worker is Indian, ten years in NZ. She thinks the Chinese shouldn’t be allowed to buy houses here, she was worried about her daughter who is at university ever being able to get married and buy a house.

  12. cogito 12

    Hopefully kiwis are finally realising that we need a govt that places ordinary kiwis first.

    • indiana 12.1

      Can you give us the definition of an unordainary kiwi please?

      • McFlock 12.1.1

        Anyone paid more than a grand a day, for a start. That’s not ordinary.

        Anyone who would spray a sprinkler on a homeless person in winter, rather than helping them. That’s not ordinary.

        Anyone who doesn’t want to have the basic decency to treat their employees fairly. That’s not ordinary.

        Anyone who doesn’t care if they’re wrecking the waterways and air and food and climate for future generations. That’s not ordinary.

        Anyone who thinks a family should have no water if they can’t pay a bill. That’s not ordinary.

        Reasonable start, there.

  13. Paul 13

    The economy is on the slide.

    People may be starting to notice that our dairy is in freefall, our dollar is in freefall and our private and public debt is rocketing.

    Citizens are dying in damp cold houses and living in caravans and containers because they can’t afford to pay rent.

    Our workers dying in unsafe workplaces. Over 200 have died and over 20 000 injured since what should have been a major wake up call at Pike River. But still our workers are killed and maimed as they work in forestry, building, fishing and farming.

    Property speculators from Berlin, Boston and Beijing run amok as they buy up our houses and land, condemning our young to be Generation Rent.

    Our privatised prisons are out of control, sold off to a dodgy British company who profit from others’ misery.

    Meanwhile Key and English twiddle their thumbs while Rome burns, trusting in the market.

    People are joining the dots.

    This government does not represent their interests.

    • maui 13.1

      Good summary, you missed our government selling off state assets (houses) to private development companies and the wealth transfer to them. Zero consultation with domestic state housing providers and it being too costly for them to practically take the state houses on. So sell them instead to an Australian social housing company so they can keep the profits.

      • ropata 13.1.1

        Don’t forget raising GST across the board and then dropping the top rates of income tax. Nice regressive bit of Tory sleight of hand there.

        And selling our labour laws to WB so that Key can do photo ops with Hobbits.
        And zero hour contracts.
        And private prisons.
        And throwing out carbon controls.
        And illegally raiding Kim DotCom on behalf of the FBI.
        And selling our sovereignty to the TPPA free trade gods.
        And doing insider deals with Oravida and SkyCity.
        And raiding Christchurch public assets in the name of disaster capitalism.
        And illegally exporting Kauri logs to China.
        And secretly bribing a wealthy Saudi businessman with a sheep farm in the desert.
        And running a Cabinet Club with Donghua Liu, who then lied about donations to the Labour Party.
        And suppressing a documentary about poverty in election time.
        And suppressing a YouTube video satirizing FJK in election time.
        And suppressing Bradley Ambrose, and raiding Nicky Hager

        These Nats are the worst crooks ever to besmirch the Parliament benches.

    • stigie 13.2

      Get a grip Paul, our economy is not in freefall, nothing like it. Nothing makes you happier than being all doom and gloom and NZ falling apart.
      What about embracing the very good parts of our economy and what we have at the moment ?

    • Chooky 13.3

      +100 Paul

    • Clemgeopin 13.4

      The bastards have sold our electricity power assets, lands and schools…and are going to sell our state houses too.
      This National government is working for the corporates, the wealthy and the rich non-residents.
      Who the hell trusted Key and voted for his dodgy crooked outfit?

  14. gobsmacked 14

    The reporting of Little’s comments on “90 days” may well be a beat-up, that’s par for the course.

    But Little can settle that with a single statement – even a tweet.

    “Labour’s policy has not changed. Labour will scrap it. Period.”

    We need to hear that, and soon.

    • Anne 14.1

      gobsmacked, good to hear from you. I hope you stick around. There are a few new commenters on this site who could do with a bit of sorting. You’re just the person to do it. 😛

      • gobsmacked 14.1.1

        That’s very kind of you, Anne.

        However, I am a recovering blog-aholic, and made a resolution to keep off the strong stuff, and obviously I have just had a lapse! 😉

        Just the occasional tipple, perhaps. No more blog-binges, I got sick of the headaches …

      • Lanthanide 14.1.2

        +1

    • James 14.2

      So to back track on his back track ??

  15. weka 15

    Nice to see the GP stable and the lift in the Labour poll comes at the expense of National. NZF is relatively stable too (up .5%).

    • Sanctuary 15.1

      yeah, I noticed that – a straight move to Labour rather than a re-arranging on the left plus the margin of error.

  16. Michael 16

    One swallow does not a summer make – and one poll result goes not a government make, either. It may be the case that more people are getting sick and tired of Honest John and his dirty politics crew, but I see no evidence that people see Labour as the alternative. Hardly surprising when Labour offers only the New Right status quo which has impoverished most of us since 1984. Still I guess a bit of race-bashing might just wash Labour over the finish line in 2017, although I hope the Greens refuse to have anything to do with a political party that bases its appeal on dog-whistle tactics.

    • RedLogix 16.1

      Absolutely true – but in this case the size of the movement is outside of the noise band. There is a high probability that it does reflect a real movement; but exactly how large and how stable is not possible to predict from this single data point.

      • Lanthanide 16.1.1

        Or, it’s simply the 1 in 20 polls that statistically are wrong by more than the margin or error (95% confidence means 1 out of 20 are wrong).

        Assuming you believe the methodology of the poll, being a simple random sample without any bias is actually true, and therefore the ‘margin of error’ received-wisdom-statistical-modelling is true.

        • Skinny 16.1.1.1

          The Nats are in their 3 term with the baggage mounting and people are switching off to them. It’s as simple as that really. It’s hard to paint a brighter future when punters see their paying more at the pumps, in the malls and in the supermarket when meat rises because of better export returns. Subconscious things like winter power bills and non residents buying here at wholesale rates. Be interested in the lift exporters receive and the effect this has down the chain.

          It’s all about the dollar and our dollar is heading down.

        • RedLogix 16.1.1.2

          Or, it’s simply the 1 in 20 polls that statistically are wrong

          Which logically means that there is a 19 in 20 chance it’s meaningful. That’s a ‘high probability’ in my book.

          • McFlock 16.1.1.2.1

            Or the 8.5% jump for the nats a couple of months ago was off, and since then the poll has been within 3% of their true rate of of more static support and so has Labour’s for its.

            Or there’s a systemic bias in different pools of electors that RM use to sample the population from poll to poll.

            Or it’s just within the same variations experience by Goff, Shearer and Cunliffe.

          • Skinny 16.1.1.2.2

            Tanking milk solid prices and the backwash effect of a sliding dollar, business confidence down, it all adds up. This polls has probably got more to do with the onset of the wiinter blues, the next ones will give a clearer indication.

            • Lanthanide 16.1.1.2.2.1

              We seem to be having an unusually cold winter across the whole country. It’s been unusually sunny here in Christchurch for winter, but also very cold over night.

              So I guess the high electricity prices (and publicity of people unable to heat their houses), and the knowledge of National selling the SoEs off, could be playing a minor little part, too.

  17. Shona 17

    Whatever it is Labour’s popularity will accelerate after the housing speculation revelations . So will NZ First’s. Vindication for Winston’s long held assertions about offshore investor’s.

    • Colonial Viper 17.1

      hmmm a strategic move to bring NZF and Winston in closer? Interesting.

      • Skinny 17.1.1

        Winston won’t be overly happy with Labours move to the centre and squeezing NZF out of his territory. He got no media oxygen on his policy for small business taxation changes today. Be interesting to see how far towards the middle ground the Greens wander, especially with Genter as their new finance spokesperson.

        • McFlock 17.1.1.1

          Hmm.
          On the plus side for winston, it makes his position as electorate MP more important so he can put a bit more stick about his caucus.

          And if nat support crumbles because they look weak (waaaaaaay too early to say that this is the start, though – I think most of it is a blip) then NZ1 will pick up some of their debris anyway.

          • Ergo Robertina 17.1.1.1.1

            It feels like it’s starting to turn.
            I always think of the slightly weird feeling I experienced coming home in 2008 after a couple of years to find the mood had turned against Labour. When I left things were quite different.
            2015 is 2006 in Lab5 years.

            • Skinny 17.1.1.1.1.1

              Yes I agree, it’s an instinctive thing when the intuitive punters (float voters) start to think a political party in power have had their turn, the herd mentality then takes over. Very hard to combat for the incumbent regime, every issue they get taken to task on bleeds votes with a disgruntled population. 🙂

              • Colonial Viper

                Until the LAB/GR block beats the NATs several more times this year, this result has to be treated as a short term blip.

  18. Weepus beard 18

    It will be interesting what David Farrar makes of all this. I expect a lot of spin.

  19. ofysseus 19

    I would think that if this poll was translated into election day, it would mean a Nat- NZF govt. So still alot of work to do…

    • Mike S 19.1

      Or depending on how much vote NZ First could get, it could be a Labour / NZF coalition with Greens holding the balance of power and probably more likely to give confidence and supply to Labour / NZF ?

      • weka 19.1.1

        Interesting idea. How much vote do you think NZF would have to have for that to work?

        Of course that would be the NZF that historically supports the party with the largest vote, but presumably won’t apply that principle to the second place getter.

        • Mike S 19.1.1.1

          Thanks Weka I forgot about NZFirst supporting the party with the largest vote,

          Although in saying that I’m sure I’ve heard Winston say that NZFirst will talk to the party with the largest vote first, not necessarily support them?? But you’re right, historically that’s how they’ve gone. Then again I’ve heard politicians say a myriad of things and then do the opposite so maybe??

          With the Greens now firmly entrenched as the third largest party and happening to be left leaning, the National party is always going to be more likely to get (or more easily get) the most party votes. (On the very rudimentary assumption of an approximate 50/50 left/right split throughout the population) I guess NZFirst would have to take a big chunk of Nat voters to enable Labour to be the party with the most votes. Maybe someone could convince Winston that he should count Lab + Greens as one total?? (hehehe even I couldn’t bring myself to do that)

          As far as NZFirst goes, It could also depend maybe a little bit upon who is looking likely to take over from Key as i’m told there’s no love lost (at all) between Winston and some of the possible Nat next leaders

          • weka 19.1.1.1.1

            Yes, I think you are right about it being they will talk to the largest party.

            IMO Peters is anti-MMP/democracy, for a number of reasons that include the fact that he doesn’t consider L/GP a bloc. On the other hand, neither do Labour, so here we are yet again 😉

            I agree about Key and his replacement, although I would have thought Peters would prefer anyone but Key (ABK).

    • leftie 19.2

      @ofysseus

      I think you are dreaming. The Nats would be goneburgers.

  20. Tony P 20

    Still waiting for comment on this on TV1 news. There’s been All Blacks, kids stuck in vending machines and the jaffa race in Dunedin but absolutely nothing about this poll. If it was the other way round it would be trumpeted from the sky.

    • Paul 20.1

      Our media is owned.

    • Lanthanide 20.2

      Actually the TV news and newspapers rarely comment on Roy Morgan polls, and usually don’t comment on each others polls, either.

      They all commission their own polls and then report the results as if they’re gospel. They’re as much about filling up inches / airspace and branding as they are about trying to inform people.

      • Ben 20.2.1

        Yet The Herald covered the RM poll today, which they normally ignore. The covered it because they believe it justifies the hit-job they ran with Labour (although the poll does not reflect the Chinese bashing). Dirty Media anyone?

        • One Anonymous Bloke 20.2.1.1

          …the impact of Labour’s analysis of leaked Auckland real estate data remains unclear.

          That’s interesting: what The Herald says and your version don’t match. Are you lying deliberately or can you just not read?

          • Ben 20.2.1.1.1

            How can it remain unclear? What is clear is that the poll does not reflect the recent racist attacks on a part of our community, and PT wanking on about how his ‘whistleblower’ did a service to us all.

            And before you go Full Retard and accuse me of being a liar again, since the 1st issue of the article they have decided to do a bit more research (20 seconds on the RM site) and added:

            “The poll of 886 voters began on June 29 and ended the day after Labour released that data on July 11.”

            They also changed the headline that clearly stated it was a result of the Chinese housing beat-up.

            Yet they still state the impact remains unclear. It’s not ‘unclear’ it’s unknown.

            Are you deliberately being ignorant, or can you just not read?

            • Paul 20.2.1.1.1.1

              To quote James Carville “it’s the economy stupid.”

            • One Anonymous Bloke 20.2.1.1.1.2

              Apparently these questions would be better directed at The Herald, to which the answer appears to be “Read? I don’t have time to read, I’m a sub-editor!”

              As for you, your “hit job” smear reveals your agenda.

              • Ben

                So a leading media agency colluding with a trailing political party to frame and release information designed to damage the Govt is not a hit job?

                The fact that stolen private information was used by the Labour party for political gain seems to be lost on many. Not so lost on Shane Te Pou.

                If the shoe was on the other foot you would be calling for an equiry and for heads to roll.

                • Paul

                  You are becoming tiresome.But I guess that’s the intention.

                  How about discussing how your hero John is going to fix the economy he has broken?

    • ankerawshark 20.3

      Tony P nothing on Prime either…………..

      But the Prision fight, mass shooting in the US and of course the Jaffa roll

      • Paul 20.3.1

        The SNP built a movement without relying on the MSM.
        It was built around social media and a couple of key websites, Wings over Scotland and Bella Caledonia.

  21. North 21

    Start of intercept 5.29 pm –

    5.30 pm – “Hello, Hello……Hawaii 666 911 ?
    OK, good, good…….PM please – John, Steven here – Oh that’s great John – SO important the Obamas be there – hear tell they luv weddings ! – Jerry delegates Barack on the knighthood thing same day maybe ? – OK OK I hear ya – handling E! Channel y’self……no no John, nothing happening here – take as long as you like !”

    5.35 pm – “Hello, Hello……Hawaii 666 911 ?
    OK, good, good…….PM please – John, Judith here – Oh that’s great John – SO important the Obamas be there – hear tell they luv weddings ! – Jerry delegates Barack on the knighthood thing same day maybe ? – OK OK I hear ya – handling E! Channel y’self……no no John, nothing happening here – take as long as you like !”

    5.31 pm – “HeIlo Jason……Steven…….any new dirt on Collins ?”

    5.36 pm – “Hello Cam……..Judith……..any new dirt on Joyce ?”

    End of intercept 5.37 pm.

  22. gsays 22

    Hi all, with the lift in polling this begs the question of where party takes its policy and message.

    Do they target the public with a crosby/textor style or aim a little higher?

  23. infused 23

    If little removes 90 days, he will have no business support. It’s been the best thing in business in along time.

    • Mike S 23.1

      Maybe, maybe not, have you got any data to back up that claim? But let’s say your’re right and it’s “been the best thing in business in a long time”, why is that? What has it enabled business to do that it couldn’t already do?

      I mean why do you need 90 days at all, as a business owner I can fire someone anytime I want, I just have to have a very good reason (that makes sense as I wouldn’t fire someone without a very good reason anyway) and I have to make sure I follow the correct procedure mainly to ensure the employee is protected and I am protected and that the process is fair and reasonable. Nothing difficult about that from my perspective and any business owner who values and cares about their employees and is not lazy and flippant in their dealings with them has no problems with that either. Regardless, a detailed and robust hiring process pretty much means there’s no need for trial periods anyway.

      Businesses are a bit like children, if you hand everything to them on a platter, instead of letting them do at least a few hard yards, they turn out weak when it counts, slow to adapt, ill equipped to expand their horizons and generally less able.

      Let’s face it, if you’re gonna make a decision as to whether or not to create a new position and employ someone to fill it based upon whether or not you can then fire that person within 3 months without reason, then the chances are you ain’t gonna be in business very long anyway.

      His announcement of a flexible pay as you go provisional tax enhancement for small businesses seems to have gone down pretty well with the business community though.

  24. TheBlackKitten 24

    It’s quite simple really. Labour brought up a very valid key economic concern re high costs of housing in Auckland and people are responding accordingly.
    Key economic concerns are what wins votes, not PC ideology.

    • Pascals bookie 24.1

      How do calendars work? What are clocks? Which way does time run?

      • Lanthanide 24.1.1

        This will help!

      • Ben 24.1.2

        Mere details. The Left and The Herald have convinced themselves that the bounce is a result of the recent racism. Keep it up team, it’s a winning strategy.

        • Paul 24.1.2.1

          The Herald is wrong.
          It happened before Twyford’ interview.
          The change has occurred because of a failing economy.

          • One Anonymous Bloke 24.1.2.1.1

            Ben is lying about what The Herald actually said.

            • Paul 24.1.2.1.1.1

              I presume Ben is disappointed by the result.

              • Ben

                What is disappointing is the total lack of an effective opposition. Confidence has gone down because our markets have reduced their dairy consumption, the dollar has dropped (just what Labour was screaming for a month or so ago) due to outside influences, Greece is stuffed. Nothing to do with Labour, and most likely due to Little staying out of sight.

                Where has Robinson been lately? Very quiet and staying right out of the housing drama.

                Still waiting for an answer to my previous question -“what Labour MPs are shining?”

                • Paul

                  Given the history of your interjections in this site, I would suggest that your concern about a lack of effective opposition is somewhat false.

                • Nothing to do with Labour…

                  My God, you’re right! It’s almost as though voters’ willingness to make the government accountable for the economy has a positive effect on opposition party support regardless of what that opposition party does or doesn’t do. Quick – publish your research, political scientists world-wide will be astonished!

                • maui

                  Robinson? He retired from radio NZ last year. But you’re right he hasn’t been vocal since leaving radio.

                • ankerawshark

                  Robinson has made an official complaint about the PM lying to parliament when he said the ird had advised him there would be no impact on people enrolling for Kiwisaver if the $1000.00 join up bonus was dropped.

                  No too quiet at all

                • Ad

                  There’s truth to that Ben.

                  Prior to Twyford’s recent thrust, the last time the Opposition were meaningful was when Winston Peters won the Northland by-election.
                  I’m still waiting for the Greens to make an appearance since the election – where the hell Shaw disappeared to is beyond me.

                  I am a grudging Key fan, because his skills continue to grow.
                  Key has done everything he can to ensure the longevity of this government, including:
                  – completely crushing the Opposition
                  – a huge war chest for next elections
                  – completely boxing in any local government nuisances
                  – massively revitalizing his caucus and his Cabinet
                  – providing sops for the welfare beneficiaries
                  – sucking out most political debate oxygen with a Parliamentary legislative programme down to almost zero
                  – almost total command of story management within the MSM

                  John Key is a political genus.

                  He had enough in the tank to see through the GFC, and the nation-denting shock of Christchurch – but this next recession will have left him without the public sector gas in the tank to drive through it.

                  The tide is going out on him.

            • Ben 24.1.2.1.1.2

              Refer to my response above – maybe take a moment or two to sharpen up on your comprehension skills before doing so.

              • One Anonymous Bloke

                Refer to my response above. Try and sharpen up your feeble smears.

              • Paul

                I did and it’s clear you’re a Key fanboy.
                Comments like this show your true colours
                http://thestandard.org.nz/outflanking-labour-on-the-left/#comment-1019241

                So please stop pretending you’re worried about the opposition.

                • Ben

                  Wow you got me with that there link. I’m not pretending – I’m worried about the opposition not holding the Govt to account, and not giving me a viable alternative for my vote.

                  Feel free to peg me as a Nat fan boy because I don’t agree with everything said here. I don’t care, and I come here and speak my mind and hear the views of others. I guess I need to remember that alternative views aren’t all that welcome here.

                  • Paul

                    No, alternative views are welcome.
                    An wilful inability to read and comprehend is however tiresome.
                    And making up smears only confirms your reason for being here.

                    • Mike S

                      Geez Paul that’s a bit generous mate.

                      I would have said that Ben, you need to remember that most (pretty much all) alternative views are welcome here…..except yours….so fuck off Ben.

                      Yep I would have said that, if I had any say in which views are or aren’t welcome here or if I had in fact any say in the running of this site at all, which I don’t , so I won’t say it…

          • Stuart Munro 24.1.2.1.2

            $100 billion of debt – and the example of Greece to explain what happens if we continue down this path, have turned a lot of people off glib non-performers.

            • Colonial Rawshark 24.1.2.1.2.1

              Although unlike Greece, NZ remains a currency sovereign (it controls its own currency, interest rates and monetary policy) which makes a world of difference.

              • Stuart Munro

                Yeah… better if they managed the economy intelligently for growth (bit of a stretch for them I know). The sovereign currency is better than nothing, but not so good if it’s all you’ve got. Life has been getting pretty hard here too, might have to pop overseas again.

        • Lanthanide 24.1.2.2

          Hey Ben, can you please quote where “the left” think this poll reflects their “recent racism”?

          Maybe you need to find out what clocks is, too. I recommend Philomena’s video above.

          • Paul 24.1.2.2.1

            He won’t because he can’t.

            • Stuart Munro 24.1.2.2.1.1

              He could, but he’d have to assemble “a left” construct from surname data.

            • cricklewood 24.1.2.2.1.2

              To be fair to Ben the Heralds initial headline (which they quickly changed) intimated the poll bounce was a result of the housing stuff… it was as if they wrote the headline then checked the dates of the polling… they seem to alter a significant number of stories in this way every week.

              • Lanthanide

                Much easier to be sloppy and hasty with a website. It’s not like printed newspapers, where the ink is on the page and you can’t do nothin’ to change it, so you gotta get it right the first time.

                • Paul

                  I think the Herald may make a lot of errors because it sources quite a lot from people’s personal social media feeds.

                • Ben

                  You cannot be serious.

                  • Lanthanide

                    You think that the herald online don’t publish stories on their website, with the full knowledge that they can be edited after the fact, whereas things they print in the paper can’t be edited if they fuck up?

                    Did you come down in the last shower, or what?

                    • Ben

                      When it is considered important, professionals normally measure twice, cut once.

                      A bit more effort (approx 1 minute of research) before hitting the publish button would have helped. The standards you expect from our journalists are obviously a lot lower than mine. When it suits of course.

                    • Colonial Viper

                      Ben, the Herald has too few NZ based sub editors, proofers and senior journalists onboard nowadays. Cost cutting, you understand.

                    • ropata

                      herald online made several amendments to the ponytail pulling story as Glucina’s duplicity became more obvious.

                      higher standards are expected of our journalists, hence the bitterness of complaints against them on this site

                    • Lanthanide

                      “When it is considered important”

                      Yes, exactly.

                      The mere fact that we *know* this article was initially published with a misleading headline, that was then amended, tells you that they didn’t consider this topic important.

                      We also know they changed the article about Glucina lying to the ponytail waitress at least 4 times.

                      So try and figure out what they ‘consider important’, I dare you.

                    • Alpha Z

                      Re (Ben, Did you come down in the last shower, or what?)

                      Nooo, no, but on the cabbage boat, like that other crook.

                    • Pascals bookie

                      “1 minute of research) before hitting the publish button would have helped”

                      Sure, but speed vs accuracy is always a trade off, and in online news speed is what gets the bias. It’s a business mate.

                • maui

                  I wonder if on a story where your own organisation is implicated, the editor could like change their side of the story four times on the fly before it’s settled. Just maybe this happens in the real world 🙂

                  • Mike S

                    They also do it and measure response to the headline. If the response generated seems to indicate that the headline is having the desired impact (not just an impact but the intended impact) or is ‘leading’ the audience in the desired direction then the headline is kept, else it is changed. news media have been using all sorts of social engineering methods since their inception, the online world just expands that arsenal.

                    You’d have to be(n) naive in the extreme or just a complete dick to think that those who own and run newspapers don’t follow an agenda and don’t manipulate their coverage and stories to facilitate that agenda, whether the agenda be simply more profit or something murkier.

              • Paul

                I think it’s becoming evident that we shouldn’t be cutting any slack for Ben.

      • Mike S 24.1.3

        Hmmm, regarding time, neither! Time is an illusion. (If you subscribe to the idealist view of things as opposed to the materialist view of things)

  25. Saarbo 25

    Awesome, finally Labour makes a courageous stand and we get a good lift in the polls.

    Keep up the excellent work Mr Twyford.

    • Colonial Viper 25.1

      How do you figure that when 12 out of 14 polling days were from before Twyford opened his mouth.

      • Lanthanide 25.1.1

        Saarbo needs to know what is clocks. This will help: http://thestandard.org.nz/rm-labour-jumps-6-labgr-coalition-leads/#comment-1046193

      • Sabine 25.1.2

        maybe the fact that Phil Twyford and the Labour Party for the last couple of years have been asking Nick Smith about the House Crisis, about the State House Sell Off, maybe the Cut the Crap attittude, maybe because Phil Twyford is on record (many many youtube videos Q&A Will the honorable Nick Smith explain how many affordable houses have been build and how many affordable houses build have people living in them …(that one is a classic imho) etc. has something to do with it, maybe the bullshit of National has finally reached a such a height that it can’t be denied anymore and the stench of that hill of bullshit is even seeping in the houses of non beneficiaries and neer do gooders?

        Oh, yeah right , must be racism, cause it can’t be that some of the Labour MP’s are actually out there working for their constituency.

        But I guess, if they could have celebrated a victory like the national cycleway at 330 million at a time when people sleep rough, that would have helped them win the polls.

        I understand, Labour just can’t get no love from you. Thats okai, i suggest that you give your love to someone else instead of trying to find reasons why not to love Labour.

        • Saarbo 25.1.2.1

          Sabine
          +1000

          • Colonial Viper 25.1.2.1.1

            I’m waiting for a political party willing to restructure the housing market so that houses are no longer considered a financial asset class that is capable of delivering capital gains.

            Twyford or whoever can keep “holding the government to account”, scapegoating foreign investors, highlighting declining home ownership rates and whatever showy tactic they have up their sleeves next, because Auckland house prices will keep climbing regardless – at least until the asset price bubble bursts and major uncontrolled economic fallout results.

            • Ad 25.1.2.1.1.1

              It won’t ever burst in Auckland – only stabilize for a while.

              Auckland is the independent economy holding the rest of New Zealand up, and will be for quite a while.

              • Colonial Viper

                “hold up” – like a traffic hold up

                or

                “hold up” – like supporting

            • sabine 25.1.2.1.1.2

              colonial viper

              house prices and land prices and farm prices are raising everywehre in this country.

              it is not only auckland, auckland is merely the biggest city and thus more in the spot light.

              But heck, explain the prices for housing in whangarai, some places up north, or in the middle of nowhere Nz.

              if buying a house gives you a residence permit, if buying a business gives you a residence permit, then it matters not what you pay for that house or business.

              I have family in Auckland, on the country side near whakatane, bay o plenty, up north and in windy wlgtn. And you know what. Prices are up everywhere.

              And Phil Twyford and labour have done a good job as opposition to hold the government to account. However, the opposition, regardless of their colour can only do so much, the people eventually must do something aswel. And peeps all over NZ are loosing their jobs, their houses, they can’t get benefits like they used to, Winz has become a strategic nightmare that only the best educated manage to navigate, nana’s live in cold houses, kids have no shoes in winter, and hunger seems to be everywhere.
              maybe just maybe that is the reason why Joe and Jane Sixpack are cooling on the National bandwagon. The last election was about not rocking the boat and the fact that the house values for some have gone up, well the boat has turned upside down, the housevalues are fake and everyone knows that what ever job and income they have, there is no guarantee they still have that job and income in a week or two.

              Fonterra. and all the other businesses that have laid off people …. eventually it is really like that, what goes around comes around.

              Auckland is just the biggest canary in the mine, and its dying.

              • Colonial Viper

                and if what you are saying is true, then its crucial that changes are made which mean that a house can never again be seen as a financial asset for capital gains.

  26. Pat 26

    one swallow does not remove a bad taste in the mouth

    • Sanctuary 26.1

      Is that like the joke?

      Q: If a stork brings babies, what bird prevents them?
      A: A little swallow.

  27. Mike the Savage One 27

    This has NOTHING to do with Labour and how they performed, this is all due to the people finally reading the economic and social situation of the country as being under great threat, and that all the talk about the BS “rock star economy” is just that, total BS, nothing else.

    I dare say, this also has nothing to do with Phil Twyford’s comments to media, about foreign buyers, but the Kiwis are in larger numbers finally realising, they are being conned in a very big way, by lying, underperforming, manipulative and not trustworthy members of ruling parties in government.

    • Clemgeopin 27.1

      +1

      Need to watch the next 3 to 5 polls and must watch the National caucus cussing and concussing.

      P.S :
      I won’t be surprised if Key has already reserved his one way family ticket to Hawaii, 5’O! I’ll bet 10 Northland yet-to-be-built Key-Joyce-Bridges’ bridges when ever they may be built. Any takers?

      • Colonial Viper 27.1.1

        National is going to be poring over the results of their internal polling. Expect them to respond accordingly from next week.

        • Clemgeopin 27.1.1.1

          I would love to see their mud wrestling to dethrone & dispatch Key to take over:

          Judith Vs Bennett
          Joyce Vs English
          Joyce Vs Judith
          Bennett Vs Brownlee

          Any other possible competing pairs? Bloodied muddy fights!

    • Ad 27.2

      Dont agree with that re Twyford.
      It’s an ugly way to get a poll gain. Even he would admit that.
      And using Orewa-speech type tactics holds no moral conscience.

      But it was the breakthrough that Labour needed.
      They perfectly amplified the mood of the Auckland electorate – and you can see it in the bump.

      Labour and Little had been floundering around for months.
      Simply no cut-through whatsoever.

      In politics, you have to temporarily suppress your conscience to get ahead of the pack.

      • Colonial Viper 27.2.1

        I tried to make it clear in the post – 12 out of the 14 polling days were from BEFORE Twyford opened his mouth.

        The last two days of polling: last Saturday and Sunday were too close to Twyford’s announcement to influence the opinion of any but the most volatile of news-following voters.

        In other words: Labour already had this poll bump in the bag WITHOUT needing to resort to their foray into race relations.

        • Clemgeopin 27.2.1.1

          ‘foray into race relations’

          They didn’t! It is you, some other LW foolish fellow travellers, many RW rogues and some from the hapless do-gooding gangreen gormmet brigade did. Silly stupid sausages.

      • Anne 27.2.2

        Labour and Little had been floundering around for months.

        And how do you know that Ad? Do you have insider knowledge?

        I well remember Little being interviewed shortly after he became leader and talking about his plans for the coming 12 months. I remember gauging the impression he intended to spend the first six months or so travelling the country introducing himself to voters and community, business and farming leaders. He conceded it would not give him much by way of media publicity but he believed it was an important first step to take.

        That is exactly what he did and apparently with a lot of success – success that was never going to initially show up in the polls. Andrew Little is playing the long game and, while it may be frustrating for the rest of us, he is right to do so. There is not much he and his caucus team can do about the largely hostile media, but I am happy with the way he has conducted himself thus far. And I believe in time the voters will also find themselves equally happy with him.

  28. Mike the Savage One 28

    I warn Labour members and MPs though, having just followed some debate in the German Bundestag, and how the SPD representatives talked like formidable “Chicago Boys” economic defenders, defending their coalition government’s and neoliberal position on the Greek debt crisis, and the third proposed “rescue package”, to NOT take this as a credit for their right of centre policies in economics here.

    We still need to see and hear more from (new) Labour NZ, how you actually plan to offer us a better future, and how you are capable to find a way, that is different, and no longer just tows the line of the world banks and corporations. Workers and those not even able to get jobs demand, a civilised, smart and decided new direction, a solution, so that work does not only pay a wage or salary, but is secure, respected, dignified and leads to overall social and national advancements, not just paying the bills to corporate raiders and banksters.

    We will watch this space with great interest, or there will be ample space for a new left of centre party, that will address the issues that need adressing, also environmental concerns.

    • Colonial Viper 28.1

      We still need to see and hear more from (new) Labour NZ, how you actually plan to offer us a better future, and how you are capable to find a way, that is different, and no longer just tows the line of the world banks and corporations. Workers and those not even able to get jobs demand, a civilised, smart and decided new direction, a solution, so that work does not only pay a wage or salary, but is secure, respected, dignified and leads to overall social and national advancements, not just paying the bills to corporate raiders and banksters.

      Exactly.

      • Thinkerr 28.1.1

        I keep being amazed by how neo-liberal policy parties keep getting re-elected, long after neo-liberalism has been agreed to have been a flawed experiment that failed a generation of workers. To me, it seems like going back to when it was discovered the world is round, but the flat-earth politicians keep getting their message through, somehow.

        But, I think this poll might be due to the combination of Aucklanders unhappy with property prices and the rural sector unhappy with the milk payout. Wait and see if it’s the start of a trend before you get too excited.

  29. James 29

    Rouge poll ?

  30. Sable 30

    Much as I’d like to see anyone in office as opposed to Key I have little faith in polls.

  31. Labour must now be alert to the way Crosby /Textor will react to the polll result.
    They will be working double overtime to find some supposed scandal to label labour with.
    Be ready Labourites dont let these bastards come up with some effective scandal mongering. Over the years they have destroyed the political futures of some very good people ,They will now be watching and getting ready to come out with their poison anytime now. Plus I bet that scumbag Whale oil is on the phone this very moment.

    • Clemgeopin 31.1

      I think people are slowly getting wise to that kind of dirty politics from the National party gang. This rime, it might actually backfire on Key, National and ACT.

  32. G C 32

    I’m still lacking confidence in Labour’s Members on Parliament.

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