- Date published:
9:29 am, February 20th, 2009 - 34 comments
Categories: polls - Tags: roy morgan
Well, that’s slightly better. The new Roy Morgan poll has the Nats on 48.5%, still a solid result but well down on the TV3 poll on Wednesday that had them on 60. The numbers are:
NZ First 1.5%
Obviously still a huge gap to bridge, but it’s early days yet.
What I this is happening is the Greens are gradually canibalising Labour and National gradually canibalising Act.
It will therefore be interesting to see how Labour come up with a way to differentiate themselves from National at the next election, given that the Greens are looking solid and National are focussed on maintaining the centre position.
I think the Maori party are back where the Greens were 3 elections ago, where they had to justify their existence to their supporters, even if that meant cosying up to parties that might not be seen as ‘natural’ in order to prove that a vote for them actually resulted in something other than just making a lot of noise from the sidelines.
I am picking a further canibalisation of Labour from here on, evenly split to the Greens and Maori parties, as the recession bites further.
As I heard someone say it’s just the swing of the pendulum – the pendulum is currently at an extended swing to the right and the public mood is still happy with smiling reassurances from the top. The polls probably won’t move much for a year or so (although I expect Act to shrink even more).
But wait till the crisis starts affecting middle NZ with job losses and petrol price rises, and no prospects for their kids, and increased social unrest. It will then become apparent that there is no plan from the top, apart from ensuring their own financial and political survival. I think a 1999 Hikoi of Hope public reaction to the govt is likely by early 2011.
EXTRA EXTRA! Nats fall 19% in 2 days!
Quickly someone tell DPF!
What I have never understood about polls is how two polls that have a margin of error of 3% can be nearly 12% apart.
Roy Morgan seems to represent reality whereas TV3 represents right wing la-la land but maybe that is just wishful thinking on my part.
Some of the gloating comments on Kiwiblog about the TV3 poll have been gut wrenching.
admit it – labour are rooted in the urban city middle class higher income bracket & the dirt poor working class bracket. TV3’s target market – corporate ads and league
“Some of the gloating comments on Kiwiblog about the TV3 poll have been gut wrenching.”
Hahahha.. thanks for the smile, and prepare to have that gut wrenched a lot more in future.
..and TV3 are not and have never been even close to “right wing”. How right is John Campbell for example. Don’t you ever test your idiotic perceptions with reality?
Answer this question for me- If TV3 are “right wing”, why would they have a raving commie fronting their flag ship show??
TV3 is owned by Canadians who are almost all hopeless commies anyway.
“Some of the gloating comments on Kiwiblog about the TV3 poll have been gut wrenching.’
Hahahha.. thanks for the smile, and prepare to have that gut wrenched a lot more in future.
..and TV3 are not and have never been even close to “right wing’. How right is John Campbell for example. Don’t you ever test your idiotic perceptions with reality?
Answer this question for me- If TV3 are “right wing’, why would they have a raving c*mm*e fronting their flag ship show??
TV3 is owned by Canadians who are almost all hopeless c*mm*es anyway.
Here’s the reality. You cannot any more depend on the tired old trick of labelling left wingers in the media as right wingers. That strategy, that deceit, has long ago run its course. Keep using it, and the polls will start looking really bad.
“Hahahha.. thanks for the smile, and prepare to have that gut wrenched a lot more in future.”
And thank you for the smile, Sport.
The ‘pendulum’ swings left and right, but Redbaiter is convinced THIS TIME it won’t swing back… 🙂 Channelling Nostradamus, anyone?
Who really gives a crap what the polls do or don’t say ?
Pointless drivel for the media to spout rather than try and find some real stories.
I don’t think the pendulum has swung to the right. I think it has swung to the centre, and John Key is claiming that space, defying his opponents on the Left and the hard Right-wingers in his own party.
Labour need to rethink a policy platform that middle NZ can relate to, otherwise they just look Green-lite.
You know Labour are in trouble when Chris Trotter is waxing lyrical about Key.
OH, I guess that demonstrates that you don’t actually mean anything you say. Fair enough, considering you don’t even know what you say anyway. “baited breath” snigger..
Keep away from Kiwiblog – it’s bad for mental health.
On the other hand you could be compassionate. Their disillusionment with their beloved leaders, when it inevitably comes, will be bitter and ugly.
the selective posting is amazing, you won’t post when it’s bad, only when it’s good. at least DPF has the ability to see through his own political leanings and give National a bad rap when they do something wrong. This blogs staunch partisanship is what earns it the title “labour lap-blog”.
“Keep away from Kiwiblog”
Yes- anyone discovered to have visited Kiwiblog will be strung up by the thumbs and belted with a rubber truncheon. You have been warned.
Tighty. You obviously didn’t read this thread – http://www.thestandard.org.nz/thankfully-the-election-isnt-tomorrow/
Pull your head in or I’ll ban you for a month.
i don’t know if this has been mentioned elsewhere but Colin Espiner also comments on the state of the polls in his blog:
“the public by and large still seems to trust Key and believe he is a competent and strong leader. They haven’t yet had much cause to think otherwise, as he has been forthright and decisive, even if he hasn’t always been right. TV3 found 85% thought he was capable, 75% good in a crisis, and 64% thought him strong.
Yet both Key and Goff have some cause to be wary. For Goff, although he can only improve, there is a feeling that perhaps he is trying a little too hard at the moment – that he is a little too competent, too smooth, too confident. That’s not surprising. Goff is a very polished and professional politician.”
I don’t think we should get carried away with self-flagilation on the left – it is early days after all. And lots of water will flow under the bridge between now and the next election. But neither do I think Labour should sit on it’s hands and wait for crisis’ to undermine the Nats. Labour need to be looking to their own game and re-establishing the links with the communities that frayed over a long term in government.
The pendulum is swinging to wherever National is. And if Labour is anywhere near the pendulum it`ll get knocked out of the way as we’ve seen in the past nine months or so. Give it 10 years for Labour to regroup and things may turn out OK with Labour – because its a better way with Labour, way better, right.?
That poll seems to be a bit off. The Greens seem to be too high and the Maori party seem to be too low.
“I don’t think we should get carried away with self-flagilation (sic) on the left.”
Quite correct. There’s a difference between scratching your arse and tearing it to pieces. I’d save the birches and the sack cloth for when the going really gets tough. Otherwise you’ll beat yourself to death in the next few months. (and where’s the sport then?)
A rise in Nat support is entirely predictable and does not auger well for them at all.
Yes, JK is trying to claim the centre and so on, but I believe a far more fundamental dynamic is at work.
Just like when you were a kid and the thunder rolled, you sought to overcome your fear by running to your perceived authority ( in the case of a frightened child, your mother or father.) Why? Because where authority is given, hope is also invested.
So now we are all grown up and the thunder roll is a precursor to potential job loss, mortgagee sale and bankruptcy. So people look to authority subliminally believing that it knows what to do. In this case the authority that is meant to set things right is the government, or more precisely, the ruling party/coalition.
In other scenarios people might have looked to their parents, god, the police, the doctor or whatever. But what happens when the authority you have invested you hopes in can’t deliver?
And that’s the danger for Nat. They must provide deliverance and I don’t think any excuses will be tolerated.
Interesting times. Cause if disenchantment spreads beyond the ruling coalition to the concept of SD government itself…..
Dancer is right. Labour cannot hope Key will simply get punished at the next election for the economic crisis. There is a reasonable chance that he will retain enough popularity and retain enough of the centre ground to keep Labour marginalised.
Nor should supporters continue the wolf-in-sheeps-clothing rhetoric about Key (right-wing puppet etc) because it is not working, and Kiwis can see through that type of BS.
Goff needs to remember how Key won the election – he met a lot of people and shook a lot of hands. He was a one-man voting machine. The Left tried to portray him as NZ’s Hannibal Lector but when people met him, the real person came through.
Goff needs to get out on the streets if he wants to build his profile, not rely on a constant barrage of complaining soundbites on TV.
TV3 is now owned by a garbage company (Ironbridge) out of Australia.
Makes sense as that’s all that’s on TV3.
Polls higher than election result? Makes no sense
One: Comments at Kiwiblog are always gut-wrenching. 😉 David’s generally all right but some of the people there would not know how to have a clean debate if you scoured them with bleach.
Two: Different polls get different results because they sample subtly different parts of New Zealand. Roy Morgan is pretty reliable, although it tends to favour the Greens a bit.
Brett: It’s Roy Morgan- sometimes they get the Greens right, sometimes they hit a pocket of support and it throws up a bad number. Don’t worry though, when we eventually hit double-digits consistently it’s likely to even out a bit more. The Maori Party are actually pretty high here- they usually polled at about 2-3%. I expect their Party vote might actually drop a bit if the coalition keeps on going as it is.
“OH, I guess that demonstrates that you don’t actually mean anything you say. Fair enough, considering you don’t even know what you say anyway. “baited breath’ snigger..”
Lord, do I need to spell out to you that it was a play on “bated” breath?! Given you’re Red”baiter”… Surely you’re taking the piss, Sport, you don’t even see it when I take the piss out of myself? That’s just sad.
“(and where’s the sport then?)”
You do get it after all.
Pat’s comment that the pendulum has swung to the middle is spot on. The right in the US, Britain and Germany have all dropped the dry economic rhetoric in an appeal to the middle ground. Add in some populist ‘string ’em up’ bollocks to a weariness with a long term government and you get the result we saw in Novemeber.
As I recall, the Morgan poll just before the election was within a couple of points of the actual result and I guess the new one just confirms that voters are still hoping Goober will deliver on his vague promises.
A few more ‘engage mouth before brain’ errors from Ministers’ Collins and Bennett should go a long way to establishing just how light on intellectual capacity, experiance and long term vision his core team is.
The real question is not the length of Key’s honeymoon with the voters, but how long the honeymoon with the right in his own caucus lasts.
No I didn’t Tane, my apologies. did i touch a nerve there though?
[Tane: Na, I just get tired of trolls coming on here and accusing us of avoiding issues for partisan reasons when it’s been addressed literally only a few posts earlier.]
literally, nice pun
“Lord, do I need to spell out to you that it was a play on “bated’ breath?! ”
Haw haw. You c*mmi*es just have no shame. You’ll disgrace yourself to the lowest degree possible rather than dishonour the red flag. Even to the extent of this kind of pathetic transparent humiliating sham. Thanks for the laff w*nker.
“TV3 is now owned by a garbage company (Ironbridge) out of Australia.”
OK. Thanks for that Jasper. ‘Bout time they abandoned that tired old c*mm*e Campbell and brought in someone who could rival the success of Bill O’Reilly and Sean Hannity on Fox. Someone fresh and objective.
Crazy the way Pravda style leftists are more concerned with shoving their political ideology down people’s throats than the survival of their businesses.
From the New York Times to the NZ Herald, they’re all either dropping like flies or about to kark it, yet they’d apparently rather die than drop their leftist bullshit and meet the market.
You would think the success of FOX would be providing them with a few clues, but I guess like all c*mmi*s, they’re just too stupidly stubborn to lay their ideology aside.
You’re *still* letting Redbaiter post?
I reckon Labour isn’t going to claw back any votes until they start opposing National on everything they do. We’ve got the worst economic downturn in recent memory, National’s favoured ideology in collapse all around the world, and Goff basically seems to be agreeing with half the things the Nats are opposing. Maybe his successor will be somebody who actually wants to *oppose* the government?
[lprent: He hasn’t been trolling (much), and has been contributing. That is all I ask. Of course he has been finding the words in auto-moderation have removed a significant proportion of his vocab which may account for some of it. ]
Oh God, DPF has another gush piece about why National are on 60%, I feel like I’m going to be ill.
Hah hah — Redbaiter is a bl**dy one-man circus! Him and Rave should get together and talk at each other until they’re speechless… For all our sakes. 😉
“Crazy the way Pravda style leftists are more concerned with shoving their political ideology down people’s throats than the survival of their businesses. ”
From that, a rational person would deduce the Vast Left Wing Konspiracy doesn’t consider the MSM to be an ally in our quest for political domination. Funny that.
kind of makes you wonder how two pollsters that both present themselves as professionals can get such drastically different results. somehow i don’t think the electorate is quite that volatile 😉
With good news like this link below, reiterating a family friendly govt, and with the Greens narrowing their leadership options down to either a Socialist or a Socialist, Labour are going to have to work hard to make themselves relevant to joe public and to lift their ratings.