Roy Morgan poll

Written By: - Date published: 2:49 pm, October 24th, 2008 - 83 comments
Categories: polls - Tags:

And the polls keep coming. Today’s Roy Morgan poll has Labour down 5.5% and National up slightly, while the Greens rise to an astonishing 11.5% – that’s 15 MPs. NZ First drops just below the threshold to 4.5%.

Under this scenario an LPG+M arrangement is possible, but only just, with 61 seats out of 121 between them.

And Roger Douglas would be back in Parliament.

83 comments on “Roy Morgan poll”

  1. LOL!!!!!

    Yeepers the polls are crazy, you cant have that big of a spike, with no major news story accounting for it.

  2. the sprout 2

    i’d be surprised if the Maori party’s Party Vote holds up like that. And the more it drops, assuming Maori Party does well in the electorates, the greater the overhang. 61 won’t get a majority in the House.

  3. insider 3

    yikes on both Labour’s drop and teh Green’s rise.

    I did wonder if the announcement on the Green’s going with Labour would gain them support from soft Labour voters who previously might have been concerned about wasted votes if the Greens cuddled up to National

  4. Sarah 4

    That is such a fucking stupid poll.

  5. insider 5

    Time to look at what loons are on the Green list if they do get 11.5%

  6. randal 6

    sarah…sorry. boo hoo hoo. close the door on the way out!

  7. outofbed 7

    I like it

  8. Tane 8

    Have to agree, I don’t put too much stock in this poll. A jump like that just doesn’t make any sense to me.

    I like the big green slice too oob, though it would mean Mike Ward back in Parliament.

  9. Sarah 9

    Randal. If you’re happy with Labour on 32%, then you should go and shoot yourself in the foot.

    This poll is such a rogue.

  10. Ben R 10

    Why are the Greens doing so well? Granted, they have much better billboards this time around.

  11. NeillR 11

    TBH, anyone who thinks that the MP will side with a minority party (Labour) to form a government while ignoring the major party (National) is seriously kidding themselves.
    The Maori Party know that in doing so they would consign the Maori seats (and themselves) to the political scrapheap. Whether you like it or not, if these results stood then the MP will almost certainly abstain (or go into coalition) allowing National to govern.

  12. gobsmacked 12

    Hang on. The last Morgan one was a “rogue poll” according to the commenters on here from the right.

    So is that two rogue polls? Or this one is true, the last one wasn’t. Or the last one was fine after all?

    Never mind, the polling period ended a few days ago. And since then things have been going much better for National … er …

  13. Tane 13

    BenR, I think it might just be the Roy Morgan poll, for some reason they tend to have the Greens all over the place. Quentin Duthie shouldn’t be getting too excited yet.

  14. randal 14

    polls schmolls.
    the post modern generation is getting a taste of uncertainty and they dont like it. WE know what is going to happen and you wont like it!

  15. Dom 15

    Interesting, had me searching down the Green list. How many MPs would this mean?

  16. DS 16

    >>>TBH, anyone who thinks that the MP will side with a minority party (Labour) to form a government while ignoring the major party (National) is seriously kidding themselves.<<<

    For the 56,578,569,886th time: there is no rule requiring the largest single party to be the government (see, for instance, Sweden, where the largest single party, the Social Democrats, are out of power, because their opponents had better combined numbers). It’s not about Labour vs National, but Labour and Friends vs National and Friends.

    As for the Maori Party, their leadership knows that they would get lynched by their supporters for backing a National Government. An abstention agreement I could see, but nothing more than that.

  17. vidiot 17

    The RM polls seem to oscillate a lot, if you compare the mid month to mid month polls, they track the same. If you compare the end of month to end of moth polls, they track the same. But if you read it logically, mid month, end of month, mid month, end of month – it’s yo-yo time.

  18. outofbed 18

    “Time to look at what loons are on the Green list if they do get 11.5%”
    well actually there are no loons on the list
    We have a very strong team with some amazing people

    Tale Kenny Graham for example
    Google him you will be impressed

    Talking about loons have you ever met National’s Chris Auchinvole
    God that man is a prick

  19. Pascal's bookie 19

    Does anybody personally know people that:

    – have been late in making up their minds,

    -usually vote Labour,

    -can’t stand NZF or United,

    – would rather see Labour in a LPG coalition,

    -and winnie and dunne out in the cold harsh winds of the cross benches?

    I know a few. They are all voting green this time out for the first time.

  20. NeillR 20

    DS, i understand that only too well, but you also have to realise that Sweden (and Germany) have a long history of proportional representation, whereas it’s relatively new here.
    Make no mistake – the clamour to remove the Maori seats will rise to a crescendo if the MP go down that path. Personally, i don’t think they’re that stupid.

  21. Pascal's bookie 21

    Talking about loons have you ever met National’s Chris Auchinvole

    or Terry Heffernan?

  22. Sarah 22

    I think it’s safe to say that it’ll be V day for national soon enough.

    The worst out of the last three polls for national was TV3’s last night. And that still had National ahead of Labour by a considerable margin.

    As for the Maori Party, I don’t want them to get into government on either side. I can take the greens in government, for they at least have some strong policies, but the Maori Party in government actually scares me.

  23. outofbed 23

    or Nick smith ?

  24. Ms M 24

    Funnily enough confidence the Government is heading in the right direction is up.

  25. Dom 25

    Surely the Maori Party will go the way their members dictate – they will consult and move forward that way. To do otherwise would betray their membership (NZF in 1996 being a good example of that). So far their members prefer Labour (at least that’s what a poll of them said).

    They SHOULD go the way that is the best for them – bugger which party gets more votes – the MP have every right to choose a path that gives their members the best deal. And more power to them if they are king or queen makers…

  26. yl 26

    It is funny hearing a comment like that from Sarah,

    it suggests that she doesnt understand MMP.

    All three of these polls show a trend towards a left wing government. These polls are not good for a national supporter.

  27. The Nats were always going to move up on the previous Roy Morgan. 40.5% was too low, but its good to see that it has stayed at just 43%.

    This poll, along with the previous Roy Morgan, and the previous two Tv3 polls give a Labour-led govt. despite the wishes of Sarah, Richard Long, and the Herald editorial, the odds on a fourth term are improving by the day.

    It is a concern that there is such a difference between polls though. It could suggest a lot of volatility or methodological problems for certain polls (cough Colmar Brunton cough) but the trend is clear – National down, Greens up. Good news.

  28. insider 28

    Yes I have met Chris Unspellable – he was ok as junior opposition people go.

    I think a number of those middle class Green mums might start to baulk at “Gareth is a vegetarian… Before that he worked for Greenpeace … and has been involved in activism for many years, including being arrested dressed as Ronald McDonald, climb buildings and unfurling a protest banner in Tiananmen Square, Beijing.”

    “Catherine describes herself as an “activist, feminist, mother, gardener, writer, teacher, mediator, advocate – and stand-up comic.” A political activist since her teens, she has worked for change in the areas of social justice, Te Tiriti and environmental issues. She has a history of challenging corporate polluters…”

    And this is just what they say about themselves…

  29. yl 29

    It is clear that JOKey is worried about the polls as he is trying to scare votes with a ‘5 headed monster’

    Looks to me like a sign of desperation.

    Bring on a Labour led government

    Captcha $768 operation (a sign of costs to come if National make it in?)

  30. Tim Ellis 30

    Gobsmacked said:

    Hang on. The last Morgan one was a “rogue poll’ according to the commenters on here from the right.

    So is that two rogue polls? Or this one is true, the last one wasn’t. Or the last one was fine after all?

    Gobsmacked, if you factor all the polling data into a weighted average, of the kind that 08wire uses, which is based on the very robust methodology, then really no poll is a rogue poll.

    This is an interesting result, which I think just proves again the point I’ve been making consistently that the polls will bounce around considerably between now and the election between polls, for no apparent reason. This doesn’t necessarily mean that there are lots of shifts between the political parties; it’s just that individual polls become much less reliable on their own. A time-weighted, rolling poll average, including all of the poll data, does give a clear picture of where the parties are likely to be at. Sadly, of all the “polls of polls” that get published, the only very robust one appears to be at 08wire.

    I’ve done a bit of work to record all of the polling data over the last year, with all the published polls, using the methodology.

    There does appear to be consistent differences for various parties supports between different polls. As 08wire points out today, there are two camps with respect to Labour and National: Fairfax, the Herald, and Colmar Brunton consistently have the National Party’s support at around 51% on a weighted poll average basis, and the Labour Party at around 35%. In the other camp, Morgan and TV3 have National on about 45% on a weighted poll average basis, and Labour on 35%. Morgan consistently has Labour at a couple of points below the weighted averages.

    With respect to the minor parties, all of the polls with the exception of Morgan are largely consistent. The Greens are tracking at about 6.5% excluding Morgan, yet Morgan has the Greens tracking more than two points higher. Morgan is also inconsistent with the other polls vis-a-vis NZFirst’s support, consistently tracking NZ First at 1.5% higher than any of the other polls. Of all the published polls in the last year, Morgan is the only pollster to record NZ First’s support above 5%, and that’s only happened five times all year.

    Maori and United are broadly similarly represented by all pollsters, with the Maori Party at around 2.7%. Act’s result is consistently at 1.5% across all polls, again with the one exception of Morgan, which has Act’s support 1% higher than any of the other polls.

    I’m not suggesting that Morgan is right or wrong, but its results are inconsistent with all the others in several respects. As I say that doesn’t matter in a weighted average where the inconsistencies between polls cancel each other out.

  31. Ben R 31

    Insider, the list gets more interesting as you get past the first 15 or so. I didn’t realise Rawiri Paratene, from Whale Rider & Playschool many years ago, was on their list.

  32. Sarah 32

    SP, do you actually have any real proof that there are methodological problems for the Colmar Brunton poll? Or is this again one of those times where baseless claims are made by you according to dodgy anecdotal evidence?

    The trend is not clear whatsoever. TV3 has undoubtedly demonstrated that the chances of a fourth term labour government are good. But the Herald Digipoll, the Colmar Brunton Poll, the Fairfax Poll, and this particular Roy Moran Poll say otherwise.

    Last nights TV3 poll actually showed no real decrease for the National bloc at all, which is good considering the period of polling was during the beginning of the campaign where labour got out of the blocks well. I remember only a few weeks ago that you as well as Tane were claiming that National would be hurt considerably by the whole Tax Cut-Kiwisaver Cut fiasco. But it hasn’t happened.

  33. Lampie 33

    Come my little hydra

  34. Sarah. Remember the polls we are seeing are for data collected 1-2 weeks ago and that it takes time for political events to flow through into voting intentions.

    Also, look at the pie chart for this graph LPG+M is the logical arrangement on these numbers. In fact, it’s not as close as it looks because Tane assumes the Maori Party would get 4, when they’ll probably get 7.

    Colmar Brunton is regarded as the least accurate polling company in New Zealand, they’ve earned that reputation over the years, particularly at the last election, when they managed to have the Nat-Lab gap 6 points out and the wrong way round in their final poll.

    Both the latest CB and Herald have National dropping.

    You’ve got to stop looking at the Nat vs Lab numbers and look at the blocs – the trend over the last 2-3 months is for the Left bloc to rise – it got down to 33-35%, now it’s 44-46% and growing, and that’s not counting the Maori Party who will obviously go with Labour.

  35. insider 35


    The nats can do better – they have Jacqui ‘Playschool’ Dean and Lockwood ‘W3’ Smith

  36. bradluen 36

    Tim, you probably know this, but for those who don’t: you can only be sure that (correctly done) weighted averages remove sampling error. In general, you can only *hope* that they’ll remove non-sampling error. If you have a very good idea of the accuracy of individual polls, like 538 does, then you can have something stronger than hope, but we don’t have enough data in NZ for that kind of precision.

    The best argument for polls-of-polls is that they worked pretty well in 2005, but 2005 didn’t so obviously display the systematic differences we’re seeing this time.

  37. Sarah 37

    I don’t think that it does take time for political events to flow through into voting intentions. If an individual is discouraged to vote for a particular group because of a political scandal, then it would be straight away, when the scandal is at its peak and the media is reporting on it substantially. That’s when most people would formulate their own view on it.

    It doesn’t make sense to suggest that the change in voting would come later — for at a later time the particular scandal would not be most likely forgotten.

    This poll does show a fourth term labour government, but I doubt that it is completely accurate. If you look at the rolling average, from all polls, National is achieving a much higher percentage than in this poll.

    As for the trends, the left bloc has indeed increased their vote. But that was inevitable. However what is important is that both blocs have now stablisied, which is good news for National.

  38. Tim Ellis 38

    Colmar Brunton is regarded as the least accurate polling company in New Zealand, they’ve earned that reputation over the years

    It might be regarded by you as the least accurate polling company, SP. That’s a matter of opinion. I’m open-minded about all polls, including Roy Morgan. You have a tendency to cherry-pick the poll results you like, and disregard any poll that doesn’t suit your interpretation of the facts.

    particularly at the last election, when they managed to have the Nat-Lab gap 6 points out and the wrong way round in their final poll.

    The Herald poll had Labour leading National by 3.5% in the week before the election, and Labour leading National by 7 points the day before the election. 3 News had Labour leading National by 9 points 10 days before the election, and National leading Labour by 2 points a week before that. Colmar Brunton had National trailing Labour by 3 points three weeks before the election.

    This says to me that all of the polls–Colmar Brunton, Fairfax, the Herald, Morgan and TV3 are very bouncy. This is why they have margins for error.

    Take a single Morgan poll: the current one has a 3.6% margin for error. This means that it is 95% probable that National’s support is somewhere between 39.4% and 46.6%. Labour’s support is 95% likely to fall between 29% and 35%. Neither of those results are inconsistent with Morgan’s last poll. It is quite possible that neither National’s, nor Labour’s support, have changed since the last poll.

    Both the latest CB and Herald have National dropping.

    No they don’t SP. Both the CB and Herald have National peaking in June-July, but their support on a weighted average within the Herald and CB datasets at over 51% and within that range since. Labour’s support in both those poll sets has broadly been around the 36% range.

    You’ve got to stop looking at the Nat vs Lab numbers and look at the blocs – the trend over the last 2-3 months is for the Left bloc to rise – it got down to 33-35%, now it’s 44-46% and growing, and that’s not counting the Maori Party who will obviously go with Labour.

    No it hasn’t, SP. On a weighted poll average, the LPGNZF vote has risen slowly from 41.5% in July (its lowest point) to 44.9%. On a weighted average it has never been as low as 33-35%. The NACTUF vote has decreased from 55% to 51% in the same period. The close has not accelerated in the last three weeks.

  39. Matthew Pilott 39

    NeillR, I’m going to do something unprecedented here, and agree with you. If a great number of people vote for the Greens over Labour, and Labour drops too low, the Maori Party will find it very hard to work with Labour – they’ll have lost the moral authority, even as a lesser minority, to govern. Sure, overall, more than 50% of people voted for a centre-left government. But with the left fragmented in a new MMP system the MP will find it nigh on impossible to work with the left based upon such a result.

    If the Greens keep taking Labour’s votes, National only look more likely to govern with Maori abstention.

  40. Pat 40

    Matthew – nail hit on the head.

    Even Sharples comments said this the other day – it would make it easier for the MP if Labour get the majority of the votes come election day. Clearly, from every poll, they will not.

  41. Tim Ellis 41

    Matthew said:

    If a great number of people vote for the Greens over Labour, and Labour drops too low, the Maori Party will find it very hard to work with Labour – they’ll have lost the moral authority, even as a lesser minority, to govern. Sure, overall, more than 50% of people voted for a centre-left government.

    I think that’s very insightful analysis, Matthew. On pretty much every poll, the Left can only govern with Maori Party support, and even then, pretty much only if NZ First passes the threshhold. The more power that the Greens have within the governing group, the more demands they will think they’re entitled to, and the harder it will be for Labour to accommodate centre-parties like the Maori Party and NZ First.

    There is another potential risk for the Left if the Greens get too powerful before the election: that centrist, soft Labour voters alarmed at the prospect of the Greens having significantly more power, drift across to National.

    National has the same problems, of course, with Act becoming too powerful. It scares the living sh*t out of many centrist voters currently supporting National. Roger Douglas may well be the darling of Act Party gatherings, but he’s held in pretty low regard by a big proportion of the population. The difference is that the Act Party has failed to get any real momentum this election, and the prospects of the Act Party wielding much power in a government with just two seats, is very remote. If the Greens had 15 seats against Labour’s 40, however, it would be a very different story for the Left.

  42. Pixie 42

    Updating my comments on an earlier posting (re the Herald poll), here’s a summary of how stats in the three polls have changed since each previous poll:

    National TV3: +0.1; Herald: -1.0; Roy Morgan: +2.5
    Labour TV3: -1.6; Herald: +1.3; RM: -5.5
    Greens TV3: +2.0; Herald: +0.5; RM: +2.5
    NZF TV3: +1.8; Herald: -0.7; RM: +0.5
    Act TV3: -0.1; Herald: +0.2; RM: N/C
    Maori TV3: -0.2; Herald: +0.5; RM: +0.5
    United TV3: +0.1; Herald: +0.2; RM: -0.5
    Progressives: TV3: NC; Herald: +0.3; RM: -0.5
    Other: TV3: -1.1; Herald: -1.2; RM: +0.5

    Gap between Labour and National
    TV3: 7.7 (+1.7); Herald: 13.4 (-2.3); RM: 11 (+8.0)
    Gap between National/Act/UF & Labour/Greens/Prog
    TV3: 0.6 (-0.4); Herald: 9.1 (-2.8); RM: 3.0 (+5.5)

    So, only common trend to come out of all three polls in last couple of days is a steady increase for the Greens.

  43. outofbed 43

    Morgan Green+ Lab 43.5% nat act 46.5%
    Herald Green+ Lab 42.4% nat act 51.6%
    TV3 Green+ Lab 46.2% nat act 46.8%



  44. Pixie 44

    If you took 0.5% from the Greens and gave it to NZ First, the results would be very interesting indeed…

  45. toad 45

    Matthew Pilott said: If the Greens keep taking Labour’s votes, National only look more likely to govern with Maori abstention.

    Matthew, you are forgetting policy considerations and just considering “the game”. The Greens and the Maori Party have voted the same way on legislation and have a greater policy synergy than either of them have with either National or Labour. Together they could form a very strong bloc to force Labour to agree to entrenching the Maori seats and even getting a review of the Foreshore and Seabed Act on the table again.

    If the Greens and the Maori Party can get between them 16 or 17 seats, which seems a reasonable possibility given at least the Morgan/TV3 poll scenario, that could be a real possibility. I can’t imagine National would ahve a bar of entrenching the Maori seats, and the Green will not support National in forming a Government anyway.

    So it is not all that simple. I think that wavering voters moving from Labour to the Greens actually strengthens the bargaining position of both the Greens and the Maori Party, given that Maori Party voters have little affnity with National and supporting a National-led Government, even through abstention, could be very dangerous politically for the Maori Party..

  46. toad 46

    outofbed said:
    Morgan Green+ Lab 43.5% nat act 46.5%
    Herald Green+ Lab 42.4% nat act 51.6%
    TV3 Green+ Lab 46.2% nat act 46.8%

    And that was before we got the Second Stanza of the Lockwood and Maurice Show this week.

    Things could be very close and very interesting.

  47. Carol 47

    Academic Jo Atkinson was on Nat Rad Panel this arvo:

    at about 20 minutes into it. He talked about some of the difficulties with polling. Part of it is that no company tells all of their methodology, probably to cover up any inadequacies in their techniques. He said that the Herald Digipoll had shrunk the numbers of participants recently to save money. So the sample is a bit too small, especially when it comes to the small parties.

    He said that Roy Morgan has a much bigger sample so should be more accurate, but it also tacks it’s political questions onto some marketing stuff, and asks a lot of other questions. This could influence the responses, and may account for the way the stats fluctuate from poll to poll. Though I see the sample size was quite a bit smaller for the latest Roy Morgan poll (about 743, while the last poll was about 923), and I thought Atkinson said the Herald digi poll was too small with a sample size of about 750. hmmm. The Sept & Aug sample sizes were around 820-840. Does this have to do with don’t knows?

    Atkinson also said that most of the polls don’t change more than the margin of error (I think about 4 points in the Roy Morgan poll), but that the news media likes to make it sound like there are changes, when none really happen.

    Furthermore he said the fluctuations in polling may have to do with strategic voting and people changing their minds about this as the election gets closer.

  48. Carol 48

    I just checked the sample sizes for the last Herald & TV3 polls. Herald digipoll was 750 people. TV3 was 1000 (therefore a bigger sample and likely to be more accurate than the Roy Morgan poll of Herald digipoll – though the TV3 one is not a lot bigger IMO). I note also that the TV3 one used mixed random and quota sampling – ie selecting from a random generation of phone numbers to get a representative cross section of age, sex and geography. Are there other criteria they should have included?

    TV 3 info accessed from here:

  49. NeillR 49

    If a great number of people vote for the Greens over Labour, and Labour drops too low, the Maori Party will find it very hard to work with Labour – they’ll have lost the moral authority, even as a lesser minority, to govern
    At what point do you consider Labour to be “too low”? My personal opinion is that if National outpolls Labour, then they (Labour) have lost the moral authority to govern.

    Should that occur then National is in the prime position to begin coalition talks – if they can’t do a deal then it falls to Labour (as second largest) to try. What i find interesting is that everyone assumes that a deal can be done between Lab/Green/Prog/Maori – i’m not so sure. And i’m not even so sure that anyone would want to put that deal together.

    I don’t believe it will be in the best interests of the country to do a deal like that. Frankly, if the TV3 poll was reflected on election night, the best thing that could emerge would be a Nat minority governing with a conditional C&S agreement with Labour. This would be a huge shock to many (Labour supporters in particular), but it is the only sane way to get through the current economic crisis. Unfortunately, i don’t think that Helen Clark would be up to such a deal, so it would remain to be seen if she stepped aside to allow it to go ahead.

  50. gobsmacked 50


    A Nat-Lab coalition should not be ruled out, if parliament was genuinely “hung”.

    But obviously Clark would be PM. Nobody could seriously suggest Key is better qualified for the job, if you put them on the same team.

    (Mind you, I’m 99% certain the Grand Coalition won’t happen – our political culture is not like Germany)

  51. Carol 51

    I don’t think “moral authority” comes into it. Under FPP, most lefties would probably give their votes to Labour. In MMP we have more choices. If there were enough seats between Labour and Greens to put them close to the Nats, I think they could try to form a coalition. Labour & The Greens have both already signalled they would try to negotiate this.

    In practice, if it were that close between left & right blocks, then I think both Nats & Labour would set about trying to negotiate a coalition at the same time. The MP might well be the kingmaker, and they might chose to talk first to the Nats if they thought the Nats had the mandate. But if they couldn’t get the deal they wanted, and thought the Nats wouldn’t achieve the desires of the MP voters, they might try to do a deal with Labour.

    That’s MMP. People vote for each of the parties mostly knowing what the preferences of each party are. It’s not the same as FPP. I think it’s more fruitful to think in terms of voting blocks rather than outright party winners.

  52. DS 52

    >>>At what point do you consider Labour to be “too low’? My personal opinion is that if National outpolls Labour, then they (Labour) have lost the moral authority to govern. <<<

    Say we had the (unlikely) scenario of National 45 percent, Labour 30 percent, Greens 25 percent. Suggesting that the Greens should have a moral obligation to back the Nats under that situation would be ludicrous: if 55 percent of NZers want a Labour/Green Government, they should not be lumbered with a National Government just because conservatives threw their votes behind one party, rather than two. Under MMP a group of parties has just as much moral legitimacy as a single party. This FPP-style “the Nats have a moral right to govern because they’re the largest single party” argument is just a hangover from a bygone era, and one that I find exceptionally annoying.

  53. randal 53

    My personal opinion is that Labour is fit to govern solely on track record.
    Key and his coterie of grey suited adventurers want to have a little ‘go’ at running the new zealand economy.

  54. the sprout 54

    nicely put randal.

  55. Spectator 55

    “unfurling a protest banner in Tiananmen Square, Beijing”

    Good on him for doing so. If only some National or Labour MPs had sufficient courage to stand up for what is right in such a manner.

  56. NeillR 56

    This FPP-style “the Nats have a moral right to govern because they’re the largest single party’ argument is just a hangover from a bygone era, and one that I find exceptionally annoying.
    It seems that you are showing an FPP mentality – i never said that National would have a “moral right to govern”, but that Labour would have lost theirs by virtue of the fact that another party (in this case National) would have out-polled them.
    It is only natural that the largest party is given the first option to form a government – it’s happened in every MMP election that we’ve had so far and in each case the major party has been able to form a government.
    I can’t see any reason why it wouldn’t be the case this time and as i’ve stated before, it is the most natural course of events as it means the least number of parties would have to be involved (cf: Nat/NZF in 1996).

  57. the sprout 57

    “it’s only natural” = WARNING: Fallacy approaching.

  58. Carol 58

    It’s not about who gets the most votes/seats, but which party or group of parties can represent the majority of voters. If National only receives 45% of the votes,/seats they can’t claim to represent the majority of voters. The Greens have already said that the Nats won’t be able to represent Green’s voters, while Labour may be able to provide more of what Green voters want.

    If a 45%-of -the-seats Nat government can’t do a deal that will provide what 50% of the voters want, they can’t claim the authority to run the country. ie if The Maori Party has the balance of power, they might talk to National first. But ultimately the MP will do a deal with the party/parties that they think can deliver most of what their voters want.

    So basically it may be that Labour provides more of what the majority of voters want, if National falls short of a 50% majority – much fairer than an FPP system where getting 45% of the vote means you can govern, even if it means that the majority of voters (55%) don’t want you AT ALL.

  59. Lew 59

    NeillR: Anyone can attempt to form a government. There’s no first dibs for the party with the most members; except inasmuch as they are probably most likely (all else being equal) to form a government. The Cabinet Manual, which sets out the rules for these things, is quite explicit that the Governor-General has no input in the process whatsoever, except to abide by whatever decision the parliament reaches. (see ). Conventionally, it’s happened that that the party with most seats approaches the G-G and announces that they believe they have enough votes to govern; but if that party cannot muster sufficient votes, nothing prevents any other party or group of parties from doing so. They needn’t wait until the leading party declared it cannot. If a week out from the election the Labour, Green, Progressive and māori parties declare that, if they have enough votes to govern they will form a coalition, and it turns out that they do after the vote is counted, the G-G is bound to accept that without anyone else getting a look in. Not that anyone else would succeed anyhow.

    Carol: It’s also important to note that a coalition can, under MMP, still form a government (50% of seats + 1) even having received fewer than 50% of the party votes. This is rare, but possible, and it could happen in this case because of the overhang caused by the māori party, who might win seven seats and only garner 2% of the party vote.

    Regardless of some abstract idea of moral authority, it’s still a legitimate government, as were National’s governments in the 1998s and 90s when they received less popular vote than the Labour-aligned bloc, but won more electorates. We don’t use `moral authority’ to decide who governs; we use an electoral system.


  60. NeillR 60

    You can’t have it both ways. If Labour gets 36% of the votes then that means that 63% of voters don’t want them. Even an NCEA graduate can see that’s not a mandate. There are probably just as many Greens and Maori Party supporters who don’t want a Labour government than do.
    Sure, they are probably prepared to stomach it because the alternative is National et al, but that’s not the point. The point is what is going to create a stable government – and it’s not Labour/Greens/Maori/JAPP.

    In fact, what’s more likely is that the “right” faction within Labour will threaten to cross the floor if Clark doesn’t do a deal with National. That would see a National minority government, with Clark “stepping aside” as leader – with the country’s best wishes and a recommendation for a UN role.

    Once we have our first MMP grand coaltion, we will see the system operating as it was intended. But it won’t occur while we have leaders who rant “over my dead body”.

  61. Lew 61

    NeillR: “If Labour gets 36% of the votes then that means that 63% of voters don’t want them.”

    No. You don’t vote against parties – you vote for one. Just because you only get one party vote does not mean you have explicitly stated you don’t want all the parties for whom you didn’t vote. If Labour gets 36%, that means means 64% (fixed your failed-NCEA maths, there) of people want someone else more than Labour but might be prepared to accept Labour in coalition with their party of choice. If (as may be the case) those electing the remaining seats to make a majority is made up of people who voted Green, māori, Progressive or whatever, then that is a mandate.

    I recognise that grand coalitions can occur under MMP more easily than under FPP, but not this campaign. There’s too much blood on the floor for that. And your speculation about a `right’ faction within Labour crossing the floor is as ridiculous as the suggestion that John Key might approach Winston Peters if he needs a spare vote come November 9.


  62. matt 62

    pretty scary really – are there really that many people lacking a functional moral compass that labour can poll 32%?? it beggars belief that over 10% support the Greens – a group of politicians who have argued for minimising the ability of police officers to defend themselves, pretty disgusting really. what is wrong with these people???

    as for that pensioners leaflet rort – labour should be forced to pay for that from their own pockets.

    fact is good people don’t vote labour

  63. Pascal's bookie 63

    I think grand coalitions are more likely to occur when the two ‘main’ parties have a smaller share of the vote than they do in NZ at present. The left wing of Labour and the right wing of National are not compatible at present. National will need to dump the KBR.

  64. NeillR 64

    Lew, i suggest you read Carol’s comment for context.

    My bad on the maths. I suppose i’ll get a “must try harder” sometime soon? 😉

    The grand coalition can’t go ahead with Clark as leader, though Key has been able to broker a number of deals – s59 amendment being the most prominent. For my mind, his most sensible first move (assuming National gains more seats than Labour), would be to offer the grand coalition – if it’s turned down and Labour form a government with the Greens/Progs and Maori it gives National the moral high ground if it falls over.

    As for the “ridiculous suggestion” – can you explain why Phil Goff was the only Labour MP who put “Labour MP for …” on his “information kit”? All the rest (apart from Lesley Soper) ensured that there were no references to the Labour Party. The right has been down for a long time within Labour – what easier way to purge the stranglehold of the left than to whisk their majority straight out from under their feet? The old saying about “the enemy of my enemy” has never held more true than within Labour.

  65. Pascal's bookie 65

    “a group of politicians who have argued for minimising the ability of police officers to defend themselves,”

    cite? I think you mean that they have argued against giving the state more power to use force against it’s citizens.

  66. gobsmacked 66

    “fact is good people don’t vote labour”

    Hey, it’s Sarah Palin! Thanks for dropping by, Governor. Love your work!

  67. Jared 68

    So what qualifies an opposition government to run the country? do they all need to attend university so they can be accredited? Or after 9 years is it impossible for another party to run the country. Luckily we live in a democracy where the choice of government is largely influenced by the will of the people through MMP, not by who extremists think are qualified (or unqualified) to run the country.

  68. T-Rex 69

    Matt. Hillarious.

    Now you’re really reaching.

  69. Speaking of Wikipedia has anyone notice John Key’s middle name has been amended? Maybe someone with an account and the know how could look up and see if the amendment originates from a parliamentary ip address.

  70. Carol 71

    NeilR, Labour & The Greens are close enough in the main things they agree on, that they could be considered as representing a possible 36% + 10% = 46%. Pretty much equal to Nats, if they got about 45% of the vote.

    The real test is if a coalition can be agreed with parties that represent the majority of the seats, so that they will be able to get their policies/bills passed in parliament. It’s possible that Nats with 45% could make such an agreement with the MP.

    But if the MP decided to go with the Nats, only on the basis of the Nats having the (dubious idea of) “moral authority”, it’s possible that coalition would only last 2 minutes before another general election was called. The government has to be able to get a majority vote in parliament for most of the things they propose, otherwise they’d be a lame-duck government. If the MP was very strongly opposed to some Nats Bills, they could say that they will no longer support the Nats on confidence and supply. The government would fall – an election would be called.

    OTOH, Clark (leading with a minority of Labour party seats) has shown she is very capable of negotiating successfully with several parties. Consequently it’s possible that she plus the Greens, could negotiate with the MP to ensure that the proposed Bills are passed, and that none of the coalition partners become so unhappy that they withdraw confidence and supply.

    When the government is formed in the first place, they have to have a sufficiently strong coalition agreement to look like they will survive the parliamentary term.

    Actually, for me a very good outcome would be a shaky coalition between the MP & Nats. The government would probably fall very quickly. In the subsequent election Labour (with proably a new look, new Leader) would then be likely to win the most votes.

    So I say, if the MP want to go with the Nats because of the (dodgy) “moral authority” argument, then go to it.

  71. Felix 72


    Is matt taking part in your project yet?

    pretty scary really – are there really that many people lacking a functional moral compass that labour can poll 32%?? it beggars belief that over 10% support the Greens – a group of politicians who have argued for minimising the ability of police officers to defend themselves, pretty disgusting really. what is wrong with these people???

    as for that pensioners leaflet rort – labour should be forced to pay for that from their own pockets.

    fact is good people don’t vote labour

    [lprent: No but from that sample it looks like a good candidate]

  72. Lew 73

    NeillR: “can you explain why Phil Goff was the only Labour MP who put “Labour MP for ‘ on his “information kit’?”

    Occam’s razor. I’m not buying this wild and wooly KBR conspiracy that he’s locked in a grim battle for dominance with David Cunliffe, and further that he would purposefully sabotage his party’s fortunes in order to gain an advantage. Since when was looking incompetent and losing an election a good career move? just look at the last person who fits that description – he’s back to tending his kiwifruit orchard.

    Honestly, pull the other one.


  73. Single Malt Social Democrat 74

    The seat distributions from this poll don’t recognise the number of electorate seats the Maori Party will win. They will likely take 6 or 7 of the seats, leaving a larger overhang, and a higher chance of a centre-left govt.

    I doubt Labour will come in this low, my pick would be somewhere very close to 40 per cent. i also think National will be close to 45 percent, but will struggle to find enough coalition partners. I think National themselves are coming to a similar conclusion, hence the scare-mongering from John Key, and the ever-increasing bile levels on Kiwiblog.

  74. the sprout 75

    what Single Malt said

  75. NeillR 76

    Carol, i’m not sure if you’ve caught up with this one: Can a party that “loses” a general election form a government acceptable to New Zealanders?, but there’s a clear majority who think that a government formed by a minority party wouldn’t be legitimate.

    But when they were asked whether New Zealanders would see a party that finished second as the rightful government, the verdict was clearcut. Sixty per cent said the country would not, 20 said it would, and 20 were unsure.

    Like i said, you may not agree with it, but a majority of the country would be outraged at the idea that a lower polling party would be able to enjoy “the baubles of office”. The backlash would be more than it’s worth.

  76. gobsmacked 77


    Sixty percent would be in favour of capital punishment too, in an opinion poll. Fortunately, instant opinion does not make laws. We have a debate first.

    “Finishing second” is nonsense, as a moment’s thought would make clear.

    If National get 36% and ACT 15%, we won’t get a Labour government, even if Labour get 37%. I won’t like the result, but it’s totally democratic, and I’m not going to fake outrage and stir up a backlash just because I can’t count.

  77. oob 78

    Some people have short memories I can remember Brash trying to stitch together a coalition last election didn’t here much screaming from the Herald and the KBR then
    you may remember labour was the biggest party

    Obviously the Bastards are worried

  78. Lew 79

    NeillR: Are you genuinely suggesting we change NZ’s electoral rules if an election produces a result the NZ Herald’s focus group doesn’t like?

    Aside from the obvious idiocy of electoral reform by straw poll, the question to which they responded was particularly fallacious. According to the link above, “they were asked whether New Zealanders would see a party that finished second as the rightful government.” Let’s be crystal fucking clear: a party does not form a government, unless it gets a majority. Parties comprising a majority in parliament form a government. That means, on the basis of the hypothetical five-party coalition, Labour would not be the government, they would be a part of the government, and the remainder of the government would be formed by other parties who between them made up majority. The question is misleading, so it’s hardly surprising that the answers are meaningless.


  79. RedLogix 80


    What you are touching on is a scary level of ignorance in the wider population about how government really works, and in particular how MMP works.

    I remember thinking about years ago is how, for all their faults, the USA does actively teach the subject of Civics in its schools. I’m not sure if that by itself is the whole solution, but it has to be better than the default ‘know nothing’ position on politics many New Zealanders seem to take a perverse pride in holding.

    If a decently informed group of people had been in that Herald focus group they would have likely, as you did, rejected the question put to them as meaningless. Instead as a nation we are largely the ill-informed pawns of disinformation and misdirection.

  80. oob 81

    if key didn’t keep ruling out coalition partners maybe the nats would have a chance
    Hes ruled out Winnie
    He’s ruled out Act with Douglas
    I mean fuck lets let you govern on 45%

  81. Lew 82

    RL: Yes, I think I’ve said before that if I were Minister of Education, civics from Plato to the present day would be taught in every high school. But that wouldn’t change the tendency (and just as evident among the supposedly politically aware and active types in this and other fora) that ignorance is a virtue.


  82. Single Malt Social Democrat 83

    This “poll” the Herald is quoting is a load of nonsense. it is based on just 100 responses (they don’t even say how many people didnt respond), and the response is obviously prompted. This is really of very little interest.

    Having said that, i think there would be some perception of a lack of mandate if National’s lead was over about ten per cent. i dont think it would be a problem if the margin of 45-40, but if it is 48-35, then i think we might have a problem. Note i view that as a problem of perception, rather than reality.

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    SciBlogsBy Duncan Steel
    1 week ago
  • The rot at the top (2).
    Thanks to a report from the Acting Inspector General of Intelligence and Security following a complaint by Nicky Hager, we have come to find out that the SIS illegally spied on Mr. Hager on behalf of the NZDF after publication of Hager’s 2011 book, Other People’s Wars. The NZDF justified ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    1 week ago
  • Common misconceptions about “Global Warming”
    COMMON MISCONCEPTIONS ABOUT GLOBAL WARMING MYTH 1: Global temperatures are rising at a rapid, unprecedented rate. FACT: The HadCRUT3 surface temperature index, produced by the Hadley Centre of the UK Met Office and the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia, shows warming to 1878, cooling to 1911, ...
    An average kiwiBy
    1 week ago
  • A climate of tyranny
    For the past week, Extinction Rebellion has been peacefully protesting in London to demand action on climate change. The British government's response? Ban their protests:Police have banned Extinction Rebellion protests from continuing anywhere in London, as they moved in almost without warning to clear protesters who remained at the movement’s ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Collins crushes climate
    An essay by Judith Collins MP reported on Carbon News yesterday seems to show an alarming shift in attitude within the National Party. Collins argues against the Zero Carbon Bill, the Paris Agreement, and downplays the magnitude of climate impacts. The Paris Agreement was adopted in December 2015 and ratified ...
    SciBlogsBy Robert McLachlan
    1 week ago
  • More disappointment
    When they were running for election, Labour promised to overhaul the Employment Relations Act and introduce fair pay agreements to set basic pay and conditions on an industry level, preventing bad employers from undercutting good ones. They followed this up by establishing a working group, which reported back in January ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • What do these mother-child studies really say about fluoridation?
    A list of indicators of bad science – many of these are found in articles promoted by anti-fluoride activists. Anti-fluoride activists have been pouring money into a scaremongering campaign warning pregnant women not to drink fluoridated water. They claim fluoride will lower the IQ of their future child. Fluoride ...
    1 week ago
  • Losing Labour’s Mills-Tone.
    Nothing Left To Say: Labour's pollster, Stephen Mills, remains swaddled-up in the comforting myths of the 1980s. As if the experience of Roger Douglas’s genuinely radical post-Muldoon policy agenda was literally a once-in-a-lifetime thing – as much as the party could possibly absorb for at least the next 50 years.MEMO ...
    1 week ago
  • Speaker: Disability and the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Historical Abuse
    The Royal Commission on abuse in care is very significant for the disability community. For many decades last century, thousands of disabled children, and adults who managed to survive, were locked away from families and communities. This was not for anything they had done, but for the perceived threat their ...
    1 week ago
  • Spain is not a democracy
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • UK Conservatives hate democracy
    With an unfair voting system, uneven electorates and an un-elected upper house, the UK's "democracy" is barely worthy of the name. But now the government wants to make it worse:The government has been accused of suppressing voters’ rights with the potential disenfranchisement of tens of thousands of people after plans ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • What is wrong with our building industry?
    Back in the 90's and early 2000's, the building industry was building leaky homes which should never have been granted consent. Now it turns out they've been building dodgy office blocks as well:New imaging technology has revealed hundreds of major buildings nationwide have defective or missing concrete or reinforcing steel. ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Local bodies
    Local body election results were released over the weekend, to joy or despair depending on where you live. In Auckland, Phil Goff trounced John Tamihere, who is muttering darkly about running for Parliament again (but which party would want him?) Wellington is now a wholly-owned subsidiary of Weta Workshop, except ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • A future of government
      How could government evolve over the next decades? Reports of democracy’s imminent demise are greatly exaggerated.  However, satisfaction with political systems in many countries is low, so there is much to do for governments of all political stripes to improve relevance and trust. Digital technologies are seen as one ...
    SciBlogsBy Robert Hickson
    2 weeks ago
  • Speaker: Catalonia, interrupted
    Two years have now gone by since the Friday afternoon when my university-student son and I headed out of our Barcelona flat to a nearby primary school, designated as a polling station for the vote that was to be held the following Sunday: the referendum on Catalonia’s independence from Spain ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Sage Decisions Unwisely Over-Ruled.
    Overruled: The joint decision of Finance Minister, Grant Robertson (Labour) and his Associate Minister, David Parker (Labour) arguably the two most powerful ministers in Jacinda Ardern’s government, to grant OceanaGold the consents which Land Information Minister, Eugenie Sage (Greens) had earlier denied them, offers bitter proof of how hard fighting ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Government may ban voting in effort to get more people to do it
    More than double the number of people who will vote in this year’s local body elections have tried marijuana or urinated somewhere they shouldn’t have. As local elections look set for the lowest turnout in decades, with many regions falling well short of 40%, the Government is exploring a number ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Woman: Deleted.
    A Statement on Abortion Law Reform by the Council of Disobedient Women   On the eve of bringing an end to antiquated, anti-women abortion laws Green MP Jan Logie intends to write women out of the Bill. With a stroke of the pen, the woke are aiming for total erasure ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    2 weeks ago
  • The Hollowest of Men Ride Again… SURPRISE!
    Musings continue apace about “the experienced businessman!” soon to be taking up a National Party MP position. Or to be more accurate, being parachuted into a seat to shut down their former MP Jamie-Lee Ross, who despite his own shortcomings shed at least some more light on the inner workings ...
    exhALANtBy exhalantblog
    2 weeks ago
  • Barbaric
    The Ugandan government wants to murder gay people:Uganda has announced plans to impose the death penalty on homosexuals. The bill, colloquially known as “Kill the Gays” in Uganda, was nullified five years ago on a technicality, but the government said on Thursday it plans to resurrect it within weeks. The ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Is this study legit? 5 questions to ask when reading news stories of medical research
    Hassan Vally, La Trobe University Who doesn’t want to know if drinking that second or third cup of coffee a day will improve your memory, or if sleeping too much increases your risk of a heart attack? We’re invested in staying healthy and many of us are interested in reading ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    2 weeks ago
  • Fighting Monsters.
    Freedom Of Speech? The Säuberung (cleansing by fire) was the work of the German Student Union which, on 10 May 1933, under the watchful eye of the Nazi Reichminister for Propaganda, Joseph Goebbels, consigned 25,000 books to the flames in a ritual exorcism of “un-German thought”. According to the logic of the ...
    2 weeks ago
  • The next wave of kaupapa Māori politics: its constitutional, it must be.
      “There can be no such thing as kaupapa Māori political parties or politics in Aotearoa” (Willie Jackson, Labour Party (2017). Māori TV, General/List Election Special) I begin with that claim because at the time, I was confounded at first that it fell out of Willie Jackson’s mouth, and then ...
    EllipsisterBy Ellipsister
    2 weeks ago
  • Night lights of NZ from orbit
    New Zealand has prided itself for decades with regard to its lack of pollution, and all will be aware that the ‘100% Pure New Zealand‘ meme is under threat through land, water and air pollution of various causes. There is another type of contamination that the country also faces: light ...
    SciBlogsBy Duncan Steel
    2 weeks ago
  • Reporters deliver uplifting news to fleeing Japanese residents: they won’t miss any rugby
    New Zealand’s media is doing its part in Japan, reassuring those in the path of the storm that they won’t miss any rugby while away from their flooded homes. New Zealand sports reporters stationed in Japan for the Rugby World Cup have had the rare and heartwarming opportunity to inform ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Government in contentious discussions about whether to put surplus on red or black
    Regional Development Minister Shane Jones is the only Cabinet member in favour of putting it all on green. As Finance Minister Grant Robertson finds himself with an enormous $7.5 billion surplus, the Government has begun intense, at times contentious conversations about whether to put the money on red or black at ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Jordanian teachers’ successful strike has lessons for here
    by Susanne Kemp At the start of September close to 100,000 school teachers went on strike in Jordan.  They demanded a 50% pay rise.  A pay rise actually agreed to by the regime back in 2014. In early October, however, in the face of government repression and threats, the teachers’ ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Why some people still think climate change isn’t real
    Climate Explained is a collaboration between The Conversation, Stuff and the New Zealand Science Media Centre to answer your questions about climate change. If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, please send it to Why do people still think climate change isn’t real? David ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    2 weeks ago

  • Minister of Finance and Sport and Recreation to visit Japan and Vietnam
    Finance Minister Grant Robertson departs tomorrow for events and meetings in Japan and Vietnam.  While in Japan, he will discuss economic and fiscal issues including meeting with the Minister of Finance, Taro Aso, and Minister of Economic and Fiscal Policy, Yasutoshi Nishimura. He will meet with the Minister of Education, ...
    10 hours ago
  • Dashboard tracks housing progress
    The Government’s Housing Dashboard released today confirms record numbers of state houses are under construction and shows the Government build programme is gaining momentum.  “After nine years of inaction, and a hands-off attitude from the previous government we’re starting to see things move in the right direction for housing,” says ...
    11 hours ago
  • Ministerial Statement on the International Convention Centre fire
    Mr Speaker, I wish to make a ministerial statement relating to the Auckland fire. The Government is closely monitoring the situation with the fire at the NZ International Convention Centre and is thankful that everyone is now safe. Firefighters are doing an incredible job managing the fire and bringing it ...
    13 hours ago
  • Government invests in Te Reo, environmental data research
    The Government is investing in ambitious research that will digitise Te Reo, grow the low-carbon protein efficient aquaculture industry, help interpret environmental trends, and large data sets says Research, Science and Innovation Minister Megan Woods. The four projects range from teaching Siri to speak Te Reo to crunching large environmental ...
    18 hours ago
  • Government announces next steps as part of a comprehensive plan to fix skills gap
    A new education-to-employment brokerage service to strengthen connections between local employers and schools. Funding for more trades focused ‘speed-dating’ events to connect schools with employers. Promotional campaign to raise profile of vocational education. The Government is taking action to increase the number of young people taking up vocational education and ...
    19 hours ago
  • Corrections Amendment Bill passes third reading
    A Bill to improve prison security and ensure the fair, safe, and humane treatment of people in prison while upholding public safety has passed its third reading. Corrections Minister Kelvin Davis says the Corrections Amendment Bill makes a number of changes to ensure the Corrections Act 2004 is fit for ...
    1 day ago
  • Ngāi Tahu CEO appointed to NZ-China Council
    Minister for Māori Development, Nanaia Mahuta, has selected Arihia Bennett MNZM, Chief Executive Officer of Te Rūnanga o Ngāi Tahu, as the Te Puni Kōkiri appointed representative on the New Zealand-China Council. The New Zealand-China Council (the Council) was established in 2012 as a New Zealand led and funded organisation ...
    2 days ago
  • Southern Response claims move to EQC
    Responsibility for processing the small number of Southern Response claims still to be settled will be transferred to EQC by the end of the year. “As claim numbers reduce, it no longer makes sense for the Crown to have two organisations processing the remaining Canterbury claims,” Grant Robertson says. “Since ...
    2 days ago
  • Bowel screening starts in Whanganui
    Health Minister David Clark is encouraging Whanganui residents to take up the opportunity for free bowel screening, which can detect cancer early when it’s easier to treat.   Over the next two years 12,000 Whanganui locals, aged 60 to 74 will be invited to participate in the National Bowel Screening ...
    2 days ago
  • Pacific Peoples Minister to attend Our Ocean Conference in Norway
    Minister for Pacific Peoples Aupito William Sio, heads to Oslo today to represent New Zealand at the sixth Our Ocean Conference, which is being hosted by the Norwegian Government from the 23-24 October. “The Our Ocean Conference mobilises real action on issues like marine plastic pollution and the impacts of ...
    3 days ago
  • Government announces 27 percent increase in Trades Academy places
    Two secondary-school initiatives are being expanded as part of the Government’s plan to see more young New Zealanders take up a trade to help close the skills gap.   This includes the largest single increase in Trades Academy places in recent years. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and Education Minister Chris ...
    3 days ago
  • Speech to the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs, Pacific Futures Conference: Connection...
    Session 4: Pacific Connectivity – Youth, Media and New Opportunities   Kia ora tatou katoa and Warm Pacific greetings to one and all. Representatives of Tainui, the local people of the land, or manawhenua – the indigenous peoples of this area – have welcomed you this morning in accordance with ...
    5 days ago
  • Methane reducing cattle feed one step closer
    The Government today announced its support for a project that could substantially reduce agricultural greenhouse gas emissions from cattle. The announcement was made as part of Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s and Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor’s visit to Nelson’s Cawthron Aquaculture Park. The Cawthron Institute will receive $100,000 from the Government’s ...
    6 days ago
  • Bill to refresh superannuation system passes first reading
    Social Development Minister Carmel Sepuloni has welcomed the first reading of the New Zealand Superannuation and Veteran’s Pension Legislation Amendment Bill. “Every New Zealander has a stake in New Zealand Superannuation and Veteran’s Pension,” says Carmel Sepuloni. “They are our most common form of social assistance – nearly 800,000 New ...
    6 days ago
  • Government announces next steps in fight against measles
    Babies in Auckland aged six months and over can receive a free vaccination and children will all have access to vaccines, Associate Minister of Health Julie Anne Genter announced today at Papatoetoe High School.   The move comes as part of Government efforts to step up the fight against measles. ...
    6 days ago
  • Speech to the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs, Pacific Futures: Connections, Identity...
    ***Check against delivery*** Good morning. It is a pleasure to be here, and to have the honour of opening this important conference on behalf of the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs. Let us take the opportunity to acknowledge all the people who have helped make today possible, including our special ...
    6 days ago
  • Police trial new response to high risk events
    Police Minister Stuart Nash says the safety of frontline officers and members of the public will be the focus of a new trial of specialist Police response teams in three of our largest urban centres. Police have this morning released details of an initiative to be trialled in Counties Manukau, ...
    6 days ago
  • New awards celebrate fisheries sustainability
    The Minister of Fisheries is calling for entries for a new public award to celebrate innovation in our seafood sector. “I have established the Seafood Sustainability Awards to recognise and celebrate those throughout industry, tangata whenua and communities who demonstrate outstanding dedication and innovation towards the sustainability of New Zealand’s ...
    6 days ago
  • More progress for women and we can do more
    Minister for Women Julie Anne Genter welcomes leaders in the private sector taking action on closing their gender pay gaps to ensure a fairer workplace for all New Zealanders. Ms Genter today launched a new report, Addressing the gender pay gap and driving women’s representation in senior leadership, from the Champions for ...
    6 days ago
  • Proposals to curb environmental damage help our coasts and the oceans
    Government Ministers today welcomed the release of a marine environment report highlighting the four key issues affecting our oceans, estuaries and coastlines.  The release underlines the importance of government proposals to combat climate pollution, ensure clean freshwater, protect biodiversity, make land use more sustainable, and reduce waste and plastic.    Environment ...
    6 days ago
  • New mental health facility for Waikato
    The Government has approved funding for a new acute mental health facility for Waikato which will provide better care and support to people with mental health and addiction issues. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and Health Minister Dr David Clark announced the $100 million project to replace the aging Henry Rongomau ...
    7 days ago
  • 500 new te reo Māori champions in our classrooms
    The Government is making progress on its goal to integrate te reo Māori into education by 2025, with over 500 teachers and support staff already graduating from Te Ahu o te Reo Māori,  Associate Education Minister Kelvin Davis announced today. Kelvin Davis made the announcement at an awards ceremony in Waikanae today, for ...
    7 days ago
  • Minister James Shaw welcomes 2018 Census first release
    Statistics Minister James Shaw has welcomed the first release of 2018 Census data. The first release of data today, 23 September, includes key data on population, regional growth, the number of homes and the size of different ethnic groups in New Zealand. Data from the 2018 Census will support the ...
    7 days ago
  • Driving transparency, ethics and accountability in government use of algorithms
    Minister for Statistics James Shaw today announced a public consultation on a proposed algorithm charter for government agencies. The charter has been developed by the Government Chief Data Steward in response to growing calls for more transparency in government use of data. Computer algorithms – procedures or formulas for solving ...
    7 days ago
  • New Zealand and the Netherlands working together on climate change
    Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor, Climate Change Minister James Shaw and visiting Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte co-hosted a business roundtable in Auckland this morning focused on working together to address climate change.  “The Netherlands is an important partner for New Zealand. We share a strong agricultural history. Sustainable agribusiness and ...
    7 days ago
  • Protecting fairness for workers and businesses
    The Government is taking action to build an inclusive economy where more of us receive our fair share at work and businesses can compete on great products and services, not undercutting wages and conditions, Immigration and Workplace Relations and Safety Minister Iain Lees-Galloway says. Two consultations launched today seek feedback ...
    7 days ago
  • Indigenous Freshwater Fish Bill Passes
    The future for New Zealand’s threatened indigenous freshwater fish looks brighter with the passing of the Conservation (Indigenous Freshwater Fish) Amendment Bill in Parliament today said Minister of Conservation, Eugenie Sage. “Until now, our freshwater fish legislation has been 20 years out of date. We have lacked effective tools to ...
    1 week ago
  • Kiwis to take part in world’s biggest earthquake drill
    At 1.30pm tomorrow, hundreds of thousands of Kiwis will join about 65 million people around the globe in ShakeOut, the world’s biggest earthquake drill. The annual drill is to remind people of the right action to take during an earthquake which is to Drop, Cover, Hold, and to practise their ...
    1 week ago
  • Rising wages and low inflation supporting Kiwis
    Kiwis are benefiting from higher wage growth and low inflation under the Coalition Government. Stats NZ data out today shows the rise in the cost of living remains low, as annual Consumers Price Index (CPI) inflation fell to 1.5% in September from 1.7% in June. “The low inflation comes as ...
    1 week ago
  • NZ economy strong amid global headwinds
    New Zealand’s economic strength and resilience has been recognised in a major update on the state of the global economy. The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook released overnight shows a reduced global growth forecast over the next two years as issues like the US-China trade war and Brexit take hold. ...
    1 week ago
  • Keeping New Zealanders safer with better counter-terrorism laws
    Justice Minister Andrew Little has today introduced a new Bill to prevent terrorism and support the de-radicalisation of New Zealanders returning from overseas. The Terrorism Suppression (Control Orders) Bill gives the New Zealand Police the ability to apply to the High Court to impose control orders on New Zealanders who ...
    1 week ago
  • Improved succession and dispute resolution core of Ture Whenua changes
    A Bill that proposes targeted changes to simplify the processes for Māori land owners when engaging with the Māori Land Court has had its First Reading today. “The approach taken by the Government is to ensure that the protection of Māori land remains a priority as we seek to improve ...
    1 week ago
  • Speech to CTU Biennial Conference
    Let me first thank all the new unionists and members in the room. There is nothing more important to improving people’s working lives than people making the decision to care, to get on board and help, to take up the reins and get involved. Congratulations to you. You bring the ...
    1 week ago
  • Minister ensures continued Whenuapai flight operations
    Minister of Defence Ron Mark has signed a certificate exempting the activity of engine testing at Whenuapai Airbase from the Resource Management Act 1991. The Act gives the Minister of Defence the power to exempt activities for the purposes of national security.  The certificate will mean the recent Environment Court ...
    1 week ago
  • NZ joins Coalition of Finance Ministers for Climate Action
    Finance Minister Grant Robertson has announced New Zealand will join the Coalition of Finance Ministers for Climate Action while attending APEC meetings in Chile. The objective of the 39 member Coalition is to share information and promote action to tackle climate change. It was formed in April this year, in ...
    1 week ago
  • Feedback Sought – Section 71 – Lyttelton Parking
    Feedback sought– Lyttelton commercial zone parking  The Associate Minister for Greater Christchurch Regeneration, Poto Williams, is seeking feedback on a proposal to remove on-site car parking requirements for new developments in the Lyttelton commercial zone.  The proposal, by Christchurch City Council, asks that powers under section 71 of the Greater ...
    1 week ago
  • Feedback Sought – Section 71 – Hagley Oval
    Hon Minister Poto Williams Associate Minister for Greater Christchurch Regeneration   MEDIA STATEMENT       Tuesday 15 October 2019 Feedback sought – Hagley Oval The Associate Minister for Greater Christchurch Regeneration, Poto Williams, is seeking feedback on a proposal about Hagley Oval. The proposal was developed by Regenerate Christchurch ...
    1 week ago
  • CTU speech – DPM
    Ladies and gentlemen, NZCTU President Richard Wagstaff, members of respective unions – thank you for the invitation to speak to you today. This might be preaching to the choir, but the importance of trade unions in New Zealand’s historical arch is difficult to understate. And it is my belief that ...
    1 week ago
  • Police Association Annual Conference
    "Let’s start by acknowledging that it has been a huge year. " Police Association Annual Conference James Cook Grand Chancellor Hotel Wellington Nau mai, haere mai. Tēnā koutou, tēnā koutou, ka nui te mihi, ki a koutou katoa. President of the Police Association, Chris Cahill; Members of the Association and ...
    1 week ago
  • New Zealand announces a further P-3 deployment in support of UN sanctions
    Minister of Foreign Affairs Winston Peters and Minister of Defence Ron Mark have announced the New Zealand Government’s decision to again deploy a Royal New Zealand Air Force P-3K2 (P-3) maritime patrol aircraft to support the implementation of United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolutions imposing sanctions against North Korea. New ...
    1 week ago