Roy Morgan shows Left ahead

Written By: - Date published: 5:14 pm, September 4th, 2008 - 87 comments
Categories: election 2008, polls - Tags:

John Key’s impatience to get the election over and done with makes a lot more sense in light of today’s Roy Morgan poll. The poll has Labour up 4 to 38%, the Greens up to 8% and National down 3.5 to 44.5% – well out of their comfort zone given their lack of viable coalition partners.

On these numbers it’s the Left by a nose, with a likely Labour/Prog/Green/Maori bloc winning 62 out of 120 seats. More importantly, the trend is all in the Left’s favour:

It appears the secret tapes scandal is starting to have an effect, with recent polls showing strong public distrust of National’s policy agenda. Recent policy releases like the privatisation of ACC, the 90 day fire at will policy and toll roads will only help cement those perceptions.

If I were a Nat I’d be hoping like hell the bigwigs had some sort of killer billboard campaign lined up. Oh, erm, that’s right…

87 comments on “Roy Morgan shows Left ahead”

  1. I expect the righties will either ignore this post or attack the messenger until Farrar supplies them with their lines…

  2. djp 2

    that is charitable of you Robinsod.

    I must admit I am sad to see this (green up, act back down to 1.5).

    I wouldn’t bank on the maori party however (as much as I think they are idiots sometimes, they *are* independent minded).

    I am happy to see NZ first out of the pie graph too

  3. It’ll be interesting to see whethe rhtis is confirmed by other polls in the coming weeks (though its worth noting that the polling period is before the Winniebox becamse big news).

    Still, it’s not plain sailing – what this poll really tells us is that the Maori Party will be kingmakers. So if Labour wants a fourth term, they better be ready to eat some crow on the Treaty deadline and F&S Act.

  4. djp 4

    true I/S, also they might want some utu over the “last cab off the rank” fiasco

  5. Tane's Cousin 5

    [Tane: I know we’re all cousins, but you’re not. Feel free to repost your comment under a different pseudonym.]

  6. Tane 6

    I/S – certainly true. But it’s a nice change from being 20 points behind. This will give Left activists a lot of confidence.

    Also, though it’s only one poll, I’m pleased to see the Greens with 10 seats. Add the likely (at least) 4 Maori Party MPs and you’ve got a decent power bloc to keep Labour honest and hopefully push them leftwards.

  7. Tara 7

    I’m not sure if I read the graph correctly, but is not the Maori Party vote falling at same rate as National ?

  8. Tane 8

    Na, the Maori Party’s up, it’s NZ First who are down.

  9. Sarah 9

    This post is painful. No wait, this entire blog is painful. Can’t you try and be just a little fair and balanced? I know it’s meant to be partisan but still. No one can actually take anything seriously you guys say when all you do is complain about the national party.

    All that happens is that if anyone disagrees, the mob of far-left pinko’s and labour staff come down on them like a tonne of bricks. There is no free speech. Just attack National at whatever the cost.

    And this poll is hardly significant. Labour would have lost quite a big chunk of support over the Winston Peters saga. And that is something that even you lefties can’t disagree on.

    And Labour’s billboards from the last election were just as if not more bad than the ones National has put up lately. But like normal, no reference to or complaint about them.

    [lprent: Read the About – top of the page. This blog site is a left blog. If you want non-partisan – go somewhere else. You know like….. ]

  10. Tane 10

    Sarah, if that’s the best you can do I’d advise you to just wait for your lines from Farrar like everyone else.

  11. Sarah 11

    You didn’t actually constructively try and comment on my post? Instead you have some sort of far-fetched personal attack.

  12. burt 12

    Tane

    Sarah is right, you just lashed out at her. Shame on you.

    Nice to see the pie chart format again, is there some threshold of red/blue that determines the suitability for this format? Oh, one more thing – isn’t the Morgan poll normally rubbish according to Labour supporters?

  13. r0b 13

    I’ve been out and about today and missed my Standard fix, but this post sends me home with a smile on my dial!

    Oh and Sarah, Burt, that counts as a lashing out attack where you come from? How precious of you. When was it that you called Helen Clark a “lying bitch” again Burt? – now that’s a personal attack.

    Anyhow, later.

  14. gobsmacked 14

    And this poll is hardly significant. Labour would have lost quite a big chunk of support over the Winston Peters saga.

    Where is the evidence of Labour losing “a big chunk of support”? How do we know, if not by polls?

  15. Matthew Pilott 15

    This post is painful. No wait, this entire blog is painful. Can’t you try and be just a little fair and balanced? I know it’s meant to be partisan but still. No one can actually take anything seriously you guys say when all you do is complain about the national party.

    Subsequently you attak Tane for lashing out and not responding to your post. What other response do you expect when your opening comment is a carte blanche attack, without any substniative point? What response is here to “you guys suck”, short of “you too”?

    All that happens is that if anyone disagrees, the mob of far-left pinko’s and labour staff come down on them like a tonne of bricks. There is no free speech. Just attack National at whatever the cost.

    Again, if you want someone to respond to your point, try not to use derogative terms and make things up. Free speech… You’re here, right? Not to mention that this site is probably technically private property.

    If you think National shouldn’t be attacked “whatever the cost” (blogging isn’t expensive) then why not jump in and defend them when you see it, instead of making comments such as the above, which achieve little. If you’re right, people won’t be able to come down on you like a tonne’o’bricks. Keep in mind that more commentors are from the left. Go defend Clark someime on KB if you want to see what I mean.

    And this poll is hardly significant. Labour would have lost quite a big chunk of support over the Winston Peters saga. And that is something that even you lefties can’t disagree on.

    No poll alone is significant, I’d imagine that’s why the trend image is also posted. But it sure is heartening, in a superficial way, to the forces of Truth and Light.

    If all us lefties agree on something, we’ve got it wrong. Feel free to jump into one of the threads about Winston, though, if you’ve a specific comment to make.

    And Labour’s billboards from the last election were just as if not more bad than the ones National has put up lately. But like normal, no reference to or complaint about them.

    Should I apologise for not complaining about Labour’s last bilboards, from three years ago? Odd angle there. I believe I have seen Tane slag them off several times today, though, and no-one’s exactly spruiking them from the rooftops either (largely because they’re not relevant to National’s current abominations).

  16. randal 16

    sarah if you want fair go to kweeweeblog and complain there. its all a question of mind over matter. we dont mind and you dont matter.

  17. NX 17

    One thing you lefties don’t seem to consider is that one of National’s biggest enemies was complacency.

    When the polls narrow like this it really helps to galvanise the anti-Helen crowd & bring them out in numbers come election day.

  18. Lew 18

    Tane, your estimation of seats leaves out the possibility of an overhang caused by the māori party. They’re likely to win six, possibly all seven Māori seats rather than the four to which their 3.5% would entitle them, creating an overhang of two or three seats and a total parliament of 122 or 123 MPs.

    It makes no difference to the numbers under your presumption of Lab/Prog/Green/māori above, but if the numbers are out, it means any coalition which doesn’t include the māori party will find itself in tricky straits.

    L

  19. Matt 19

    pretty obvious that labour will come out the loser over the winston peters thing – she knew either her benefactor or her foreign minister were liars – and did what exactly.

    quite agree it is wrong to accuse clark of being a bitch, that’s really offensive to female canines.

    but she is definitely a malignant liar who has been an appalling PM. If she does get in then a lot of good people are going to be leaving NZ which is a real shame because good people won’t be voting for her.

    just to correct a few things – not privatising ACC, allowing private competition, and labour want toll roads too, spotting a socialist lying is very easy – it’s when they open their mouth.

  20. gobsmacked 20

    NX – quality spinning there! Well done.

    I hope that National will be more and more galvanised …

  21. gobsmacked 21

    Matt, Sarah would like a word with you about “personal attacks”.

  22. Anita 22

    Sarah,

    And this poll is hardly significant. Labour would have lost quite a big chunk of support over the Winston Peters saga. And that is something that even you lefties can’t disagree on.

    They might have, we’ll know soon enough.

    But in the meantime what we do know is that there’s been a significant right->left swing in the last two months.

    1) Any ideas why?

    2) Do you think National’s bothered?

  23. Felix 23

    Bothered enough to pretend to be girls and write the kind of dross that “Sarah” does, apparently.

  24. Scribe 24

    This is about where I expected the party vote to be on election day (whenever that is) for Labour and National, with the post-election machinations determining which party can cobble together a coalition. I’m surprised the polls have closed so dramatically so soon.

    As others have said, though, this will include the major negative National press but not the major negative Labour press (though Labour has done a good C/T hit and run on things like Lord Ashcroft).

    It’s going to be an interesting few weeks.

  25. Quoth the Raven 25

    quite agree it is wrong to accuse clark of being a bitch, that’s really offensive to female canines.

    I can play your game too Matt. It’s wrong to call John Key a rich prick that’s really offensive to rich pricks. He’s a rich cunt.

  26. Jimbo 26

    I agree Felix. I’ve got a fair idea of who Sarah is. I know the tories can’t scrape together many female supporters but pretending to be girls is a bit sad. Besides, aren’t political women all part of that massive left wing/homosexual/lesbian/breeding for business axis of evil that people like ‘Sarah’ always go on about?

  27. Tamaki resident 27

    Curiablog still hasn’t blogged about the last Herald poll, so don’t hold your breath waiting for a post on this one.

  28. Tim Ellis 28

    Assuming this isn’t a rogue poll, I would say it most closely sets out the impact of the “secret agenda” tapes. National had a pretty torrid couple of weeks on that, and it shows the impact they had. The previous polls didn’t really cover the time frame. There were murmurings that they’d had this kind of impact, and the murmurings suggested that National caucus (presumably those who see the polls) were expecting this hit. The time lag between news events and poll impacts is consistent with this result.

    That aside, a lot has happened in the last couple of weeks. When National was taking the hits on the secret agenda stuff, I don’t think anybody really predicted that Winston would be dominating the headlines as much as he has over the last period. As I said in another thread, I think that news is all bad for both New Zealand First and Labour. There was a brief bit of bad news for National with Maurice’s idiotic verbal media explosion on Agenda, but the only news in the past ten days has been about Winston. The privileges committee, the SFO inquiry, the police inquiry, etc, all have at least two weeks to run.

    I think Matthew Pilott commented that only part of that may hit Labour. I’m not convinced that Helen Clark has yet successfully extricated herself from the issues. I can’t see how future polls, which do cover the current events, will be any good for Labour.

    Further, because I think the secret agenda card has been played, I don’t think it can be played again. People have already factored it in. That the PM knew about the “conflict of evidence” probably mutes it.

    Likewise, I think Labour’s claims that National didn’t have any policy are seen in this poll. We’re now heading into the campaign proper. National has released a lot of policy–far more than Labour, as it happens–and as more policy does get released, the claim that they don’t have any policy can’t be used. I still wonder then whether the election will be fought on policy issues.

    I don’t know what the next step in Labour’s campaign is going to be. I suspect there will be a big campaign announcement, involving a lot of taxpayer money, such as universal student allowances. The political gains in announcing that is offset by a loss to Labour’s credibility, having claimed that there is no money left in the kitty during the last budget.

    I am quite convinced, though, that one of Labour’s core plank: “trust us, trust our record, we’re honest, we’re accountable, we’re responsible” has taken a big hit in the last couple of weeks.

  29. mike 29

    The polls were always going to move up and down – if this was lag time from the secret recordings then it will be a few weeks yet before the Clark/Peters/Glen saga hits the polls

    Wishful thinking including the MP in the left bloc, they are capitalists at heart and have good memories..

    “He’s a rich cunt” – my word qtr, a bounce in the polls and the bitter little socialist gets all uppity.

  30. monkey boy 30

    Balanced and intelligent – thank-you Tim.

  31. Tim Ellis 31

    Oh, and one further point, although it doesn’t change the overall picture,from I’m not sure how Roy Morgan calculated the seat allocation, but the claim they will get only 4 seats is a bit conservative. More likely 6 or 7. If their party vote is up it will mute their overhang.

  32. forgetaboutthelastone 32

    “I am quite convinced, though, that one of Labour’s core plank: “trust us, trust our record, we’re honest, we’re accountable, we’re responsible’ has taken a big hit in the last couple of weeks.”

    In that case – if voters are concerned about honesty and integrity – where do they go? To slippery John the smiling assassin? With his record? I doubt that. Even if this episode has had a negative effect on Clark she still has far more credibility than slippery John.

  33. monkey boy 33

    I’ve had a little think. I think this is a false dawn for Labour, because; it registers Nationals’s recent cock-ups, but not Labour’s and Winston’s.
    Helen Clark’s credibility has taken a hit recently, but, as well, John Key is seen as an unknown quantity, so his support is fickle.
    On balance, this poll suggests a solidifying of Labour voters, but I think that wavering voters will still go National out of ‘fear’ and many hard-core Labourites will stay at home on polling day, simply because they won’t be frightened enough of Key unless he is found on you-tube sacrificing puppies for blood-diamonds or something.
    The irony may be that Labour’s negative campaigning may galvanise the soft ‘new-right’ voters and even steal a few Green ones too. It’s evidently a gamble that Helen and Labour are prepared to take, but unless they can pull something incredible out of their asses, it still doesn’t look good for them. Let’s not forget, however, how Cullen was able to find a few Billion down the back of the sofa to finance interst-free student loans afer telling us he was broke – so perhaps history can repeat itself.
    It still isn’t time to break out the Chardonnay..

  34. mike 34

    “how Cullen was able to find a few Billion down the back of the sofa to finance interst-free student.”

    MB: this time it would be different – Key would simply match any pre election bribe labour offers just as Rudd did to Howard.
    Don was just too right wing to swallow the student loan rat in 05.

  35. Tim Ellis 35

    Think about it forgetaboutit. I’m not agreeing that John Key is slippery or untrustworthy. But think about John Key standing next to Helen Clark during the leaders’ debates. Helen Clark says: “John Key is slippery, and can’t be trusted.” Now does John Key stay silent? No, he says: “Says the slippery woman who couldn’t be trusted to tell the truth about Winston Peters receiving secret donations from her biggest donor for six months, and only revealed it when she realised that her biggest donor was going to reveal all to the privileges committee.”

    I can guarantee you, that will be John Key’s line. What I’m saying is, even if John Key is untrustworthy (and I don’t think he is), Helen Clark’s big plank has been kicked out from under her. She can’t campaign as overwhelmingly more truthful, honest, and trustworthy than John Key anymore. It doesn’t work if you’ve been caught out doing something a little bit dodgy.

    Likewise, the big loss to Winston is that never again can he credibly claim to be the solitary man in Wellington sticking it to big business, and the only honest man in parliament. That’s turned out to be not the case. Even if, after this, the reality were that he was still the least corrupt politician in parliament (and I’m not saying that he is), the perception is that he’s as bad, if not worse, than all of them.

    Captcha: squalid P.M

  36. Lew 36

    Tim Ellis: You’re right – this poll has been pitched at just the right time for Labour – between the secret agenda scandal and the donations scandal. That almost makes it a rogue poll by definition. Though it does represent the continuation of a trend.

    L

  37. Matthew Pilott 37

    Tim and I were discussing Winston over here.

    Tim, I was thinking about this while watching the news tonight and it struck me that Labour was only mentioned once, Clark saying that with Peters’ standing aside, there was little else for Labour to do. Seems to me that while the heat isn’t off, it’s not a body blow.

    What does the collective readership think of this talk of the MP going with National? It seems most take it a a given that there will be serious vote-splitting again, as suggested by Tim. Following last election’s lines (and memory), if about 50% of MP electorate voters party vote Labour, how could they go with their oposition? I guess they’d need some big concessions.

  38. randal 38

    this and that and ifs and buts and all sorts of juvenile not to say puerile speculation takes no account of wff, kiwisaver, non saleable stateassets. these are the things that Kiwis will consider when they cast their vote and not some sort of right wing university common room blather dressed up as something it is not. blather and piffle is just that!

  39. Bill 39

    Go back a few months. Gen pop was sick of Labour but would vote for them because nothing else palatable was on offer.

    Enter JK with spin and Labour-lite and those same voters suddenly perceive something palatable and not Labour.

    But Nat have blown it now…got exposed. Doesn’t really matter if HC gets splattered off the back of the WP stuff.

    There is no palatable alternative to Labour. They are the better of two evils again.

  40. gobsmacked 40

    The poll was carried out over the period August 18-31 (ending on Sunday). Here is the Herald’s coverage of the Winston donations saga, over that period:

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/feature/headlines.cfm?c_id=1502733

    I think you’ll all agree that is extensive coverage. The same appliies to other media.

  41. Felix 41

    MP, the leadership of the MP might well want to get in bed with the Nats if it’s a ticket into govt, but they have to consult with the people before they do any deals and I just don’t see that being too popular around the marae circuit.

    Of course the possibility puts them in a very good spot for negotiating with Labour so they’ll be keeping the door wide open as long as they can.

  42. Roger 42

    Fascinating poll result. I expect the Maori Party to win 1 or possibly 2 more electorate seats than shown in these results. The Green upsurge looks stronger than I would have expected but if they hold support at around 7% then Labour just needs to get up to 43%. Perhaps the “small target” strategy doesn’t work over the long haul? The longer the campaign goes on the more focus is likely to shift to National’s policies – assuming they announce more.

  43. Oh, so you believe in polls now do ya Tane?

    The greens on 8% party vote?????

    I don’t think so.

  44. Bill 44

    Am tellin ye! it’s a ‘lesser of two evils’ scenario. And the Nats have well and truly blown it. Even if you don’t like Labour,( wavering) what the fuck you gonna do? The Nat’s had it for a short time with the spin and the Lab lite. They CAN’T get that back.

    So, ladies and gentlemen, time to announce the obvious.

    THE GAME’S A BOGEY.

  45. forgetaboutthelastone 45

    Tim Ellis:

    “She can’t campaign as overwhelmingly more truthful, honest, and trustworthy than John Key anymore.”

    Yes she can. Clark could bring a massive amount of material to attest both against jk’s integrity and for her own. Key has got a single, arguable point against Clark. How does he argue for his own credibility? Does he really want to get into such an argument?

    How confident are you in jk’s ability in such a debate?

  46. gobsmacked 46

    The Nat-Lab gap, in the Morgan Poll:

    June 21%
    July 15%
    This one 6.5%

    To quote NZPA: this “follows the trend of other recent surveys which have shown the gap narrowing”, such as the TV3 and Herald polls.

    One poll is questionable. The trend isn’t.

  47. lprent 47

    Tim:

    …the impact of the “secret agenda” tapes. National had a pretty torrid couple of weeks on that, and it shows the impact they had. The previous polls didn’t really cover the time frame. There were murmurings that they’d had this kind of impact, …

    That is my read as well. This is the first poll that the full effect would show in.

    I suspect that the NZF may be seeing the effects of the first part of their saga. It is hard to know – the effective error rate for the small parties is enormous.

    You’ll be happy to know that the anecdotal from canvassing shows that NZF’s woes aren’t making that much of an impact on Labour. It is going to be interesting to see what the Nay’s do next to avoid defeat. But a lot of the effect won’t happen until next poll.

    Incidentally, what you are also probably seeing is that the undecided and refused to answer starting to make the opinion known. It is starting to feel like there is an election soon. To date I suspect that the reject rate even when they get them on the phone has been that only the people with strong opinions have been answering. It is showing here. We’ve been growing at about 5% per week with page views, but recently that rate has been increasing – last week was over 8%. This week has been extreme – the last 3 days are the largest we’ve ever had, and show a growth of over 15%. Looks like todays views will make it 4 in a row.

    Helen probably won’t campaign much on the slippery platform – probably more on who in their right mind would trust JK and the Nat’s – they appear to have no policy of their own.

    MP: I think that the maori party would have to be nuts to go with the Nat’s in any coalition. It’d take a considerable increase in the right’s party vote (which is effectively Labour, MP, and NZF in that order) over the next few elections to make that viable for the party to do it and survive. As it is I think that the MP will stand outside of any coalition, but will probably do confidence and supply for the left.

  48. Short Shriveled and Slightly to the Left 48

    As some one who occasionally comments on Kiwiblog I find Sarah and Burt’s “offense” at Tane’s “attack” hilarious.

    The bad news: Centrebet still has Helen at $3.70 (Key at $1.26)
    The good news: The punters (gamblers – not necessarily from Punterland) got it wrong last time.
    But those odds will need to narrow before I’m convinced

  49. Dan 49

    It is interesting the regular differentiation between Left and Right. That is a misnomer. The battle is between the Centre and the Right. Clark and Cullen have long given up the historical dependence on card bearing unionists, and have cultivated the Centre. The Left of old is probably left to Laila and maybe McCarten, or bless his heart, Anderton.
    But the centre vs the right differentiation explains Key’s problem. His pretend populism tries to snap up the soft centre, but at the risk of losing the hard right to Roger Douglas.
    Labour is not the leftie, commie outfit that Farrar’s mates dog whistle about. They were of another generation. Ken Douglas, our last notable marxist, has been on the Air NZ board, is a member of the order of NZ, etc, etc. Nor are the unions of the past a guaranteed vote for Labour. There are many whose standard of living is such that they relate more to the hopes of the wealthy or the wannabes, and might even vote National!
    I do not think this poll is an aberation. It is a trend that I see accelerating. The Nats stand for at best bluff, but at worst a return to the awful 90s. The Nats under English got 24%, but I do not think it will fall that far. If Peter’s support crumbles, it will not go to National. Simon Power looked desperate tonight trying to reign in Williams’ defence of Peters.
    Fascinating times. I look forward to the next poll, just for the trend remember!

  50. r0b 50

    Tim Ellis – I don’t think Helen has anything to fear from a comparison of her record vs John Key’s record on the issue of trustworthiness. I outlined some of the evidence relating to Key’s judgement and honesty here.

    But I don’t think the PM needs to run that issue. I think Labour have a great story to tell about positive social progress under Labour led governments. I also think that National have zero public credibility when they deny their intention to mess with these successful and popular policies, Working for Families, KiwiSaver and so on. The Nats want to take us back to the 90’s and most people know it.

    This I think is the narrative that will win Labour the election – Labour’s policies work, National’s don’t. In the end, that’s what matters.

  51. toad 51

    Now, Tane, let’s not get too carried away.

    You talk about “the Left” here but not too about sustainability.

    The Greens opposed Labour on confidence and supply betweeen 2002 and 2005, on the basis of Labour’sposition on genetic engineering.

    The Greens will make their own choice about confidence and supply, or even coalition, after the next election too.

    And if a deal can be done, Labour will have to make some some concessions.

    They will be about environmental sustainability and social justice.

    It is highly unlikely that the Green Party will sit on the side abstaining and allow the National Party to gut the RMA and undermine workers’ rights if they have the ability to make a difference. But it is possible that the Green Party, if it could forestall National’s worst environmental and anti-worker and anti-beneficiary excesses, might do just that.

    I hope they don’t, and am confident they won’t.

    But please don’t take the Greens for granted!

    Oh, and have a look here at my take on the most recent Morgan Poll.

  52. gobsmacked 52

    Fair comment, Toad. And for what it’s worth, I wouldn’t be too unhappy if the Greens and the Maori Party did reach some kind of deal with National (however unlikely). If we have a traditionally conservative party making progress on “green” and “Treaty” issues (shorthand labels) then that’s no bad thing. Much better than using them for wedge politics.

    Having said that, I suspect John Key’s days would be numbered!

  53. Swampy 53

    “forgetaboutthelastone
    September 4, 2008 at 9:56 pm

    Yes she can. Clark could bring a massive amount of material to attest both against jk’s integrity and for her own. Key has got a single, arguable point against Clark. How does he argue for his own credibility? Does he really want to get into such an argument?”

    Your memory is very short, there have been numerous points made just during the current term (i.e. since 2005). Starting with the pledge car business.

  54. burt 54

    Matt

    I’m sorry to be the bearer of bad news. However I must warn you that you shall forever be haunted by the ghost of saying what you said about dear leader earlier in this thread. Anytime rOb is lost as to what to say in relation to your comment and he needs a quick ‘i’ll be back’ comment – he will pounce… coming from you who called Helen Clark…..

  55. what do you think they’re on Brett? if not 8%

  56. punterland 56

    @short.shriveled

    Don’t take a bookie’s fixed odds book as a meaningful barometer of reality.

    Despite the common misconception, a fixed odds book reflects *actual* punter sentiment (ie: those that put money down), not risk and return in the real world. The prices don’t actually reflect the real world – they reflect a profit for the bookmaker regardless of the real world outcome.

    Of course the original betting market frame approximates ‘common wisdom’, but that Centrebet book is many months old now. What happens is that short prices precipitate a sizeable degree of punter bias, where many see it as a sure thing and then tend towards backing it.

    Bookies often ‘get the odds wrong’ for a fixed odds book, since in reality any fixed odds book is a periodic manual recalculation of risk as opposed to the automatic tote.

    Prices are adjusted according to where the money is going. Most likely is that more right-wing supporters than left are punting with Centrebet, so a Labour win will probably offer good value right up to election day.

  57. punterland 57

    And by the way, anyone planning on hitting Labour at Centrebet should probably do so soon, because the smart money will probably start going heavily on Labour, dragging the price down.

    $3.70 is insane *value* after today’s Roy Morgan poll.

  58. the greens are going to announce their prefered party before the election, if they say national, well i can name off the top of my head about 30 green supporters, i don’t think any of them would vote for a green party that would support national. and, let’s face it, any fool who has heard russel norman or any of the rest of them knows they wouldn’t go with the tories.

    people vote greens because they want a more leftwing government, especially on the environment, so yes, i do take it for granted that a vote for the greens is a vote for a labour-led govt, as leftwing a labour-led govt as possible.

  59. r0b 59

    However I must warn you that you shall forever be haunted by the ghost of saying what you said about dear leader earlier in this thread.

    Buddy Burt has learned a valuable lesson, with interesting implications for politicians and commentators. The web is a public record “forever”. What we say and do publicly is preserved, indexed, searchable, available to everyone. The Google effect.

    National have experienced this a bit already, with the full record of Key’s flip flops (Iraq, climate change) and dead rats (KiwiSaver, Working for Families) on record. But If National wins the next election they will fully experience the Google effect – the first incoming government to do so. I hope they don’t win of course, but if they do there will be a certain satisfaction in holding the Nats to the standards they have espoused on free speech, consultation on the electoral process, measurable gains for the economy and so on.

    I think this is a game changer for politics. Although there will be short term pain, I think that as politicians learn the lesson that Burt has learned it will improve the political process. It will be much harder to mount stupid attacks while in opposition if you can then be called to account with your own words and your own standards when in government.

  60. T-Rex 60

    I’d potentially still support the Greens if the announced they were going with National, but only if it was because they’d secured the following from National.

    1) National adopts Greens entire policy platform (not unlikely, they haven’t shown much hesitation with adopting Labours)
    2) Russel Norman will be PM.
    3) Jeanette will be minister of energy
    4) Cullen will be minister of finance by proxy
    5) Key is made minister of transport, and has his annual bonus linked to the level of reduction in per-person-per-km GHG emissions and commute times. No building of new roads will be permitted – initiatives to increase throughput of existing ones will be encouraged however.
    6) Gerry Brownlee will be put in stocks somewhere for a few days, because he is pig ignorant and embarassing.

    2 through 5 are quite unlikely (maybe 6 could happen… fingers crossed) so I’m with Steve.

  61. Rob 61

    Well I’m sure most of you considered pollster tipsters will say its not a true poll. Just like you have when National has been at 56%

    There are two points I would like to make The Maori vote is crucial and they are closer to National than they have ever been. Hone thinks Labour is a rotting corpse

    Greens and Labour vote will drop once the ETS is passed there is a lot of public resistance to this bill. Once the Public work out the true cost there will be a backlash. Labour may well have been better to let it go on hold until after the Election.

    I think there is a lot more to come out on Winnie next week who knows there may be others implicated once Owen does his stuff.

  62. IrishBill 62

    Rob, I assume you are a National/Act supporter. How would you feel about them going into coalition with the Maori party? What compromises would you be willing to see made to get a deal with them?

  63. Rob 63

    Irish Bill

    It certainly wouldn’t be a marriage made in Heaven, and I believe it would have severe marital growing pains.

    However I believe that the out come of this next Election will be messy what ever way it goes.

    If the Greens get 8% they will place huge pressure on the Labour Party and the majority of New Zealanders arent voting for Green policies.

    I personally believe the Greens will only just get over 5% that will change the dynamics considerably.

    I still believe that voters aren’t getting a fair go under MMP and it needs to be looked at more closely to much Tail wagging the dog everyone having different agendas. Whether you like Key or not I believe he is right to have a referendum on MMP after all what harm can be done by it.

  64. Vanilla Eis 64

    Rob – that didn’t answer the question. What compromises to the MP would you accept from National?

  65. lprent 65

    Rob is doing his usual selective ‘quoting’ without context, in this case about Hone’s remark. But it is useful to respond because he does always echo (badly) the right attacks of the day. After all he has to be useful for something…

    Similarly with attitudes about polls. All of the polls recently have shown this interesting drop in the Nat’s support, both before and after the taper. They completely disagree about the numbers, but they all do agree that there has been a major drop in Nat’s support. That is called a trend, and the ‘tipsers’ do take trends seriously.

    As far as I can see the ETS just isn’t that much of an issue. It is like the EFA – mainly of interest to a small group of the politically aware. This will also affect business investment decisions, but that is what it was meant to do.

    It’d be interesting to see what the poll trends are like in the next 4 or 5 polls. But I’m not expecting to see much effect from the NZF stuff on Labour. It would not surprise me to see NZF bounce.

  66. Tim Ellis 66

    rob that is a fascinating point. I don’t agree that you nailed National with your post in an earlier thread, which was made up of references to posts published at the standard, but your general point that the google effect will see a fundamental change to political accountability is very lucid. I suspect it’s had a big part to play in Winston’s downfall.

  67. toad 67

    Steve Pierson said: i do take it for granted that a vote for the greens is a vote for a labour-led govt, as leftwing a labour-led govt as possible.

    You forget abstention on confidence and supply, or voting against either Labour or national on confidence and supply, as options Steve.

    The Greens will make their decision on the basis of policy and programme. I have to say that there are a number of areas, particularly climate change and the ETS, water quality, public transport, welfare benefits, mental health services and industrial relations where the Greens have been less than enthralled with Labour’s policy and programme.

    But given the positions National have unveiled on ACC privatisation, work-testing the DPB, the 90 day fire-at-will policy, road tolling, and gutting the RMA, I think it would be fair to say that the number of dead rats they would have to swallow to get Green support is rapidly growing.

  68. Rob 68

    Vanila

    Sorry misread I wasn’t trying to dodge the question I believe they would only have to give two concessions

    1) Drop the idea of quashing the Maori seats ( personally I don’t see the need for them once all claims are settled if they ever are but could live with that)

    2) Let the Maori take the Foreshore and seabed debate back to Court (which is what caused all the disharmony between Labour and Maori in the first place)

    I could live with that if it was written well enough so there would be no financial gain, no denial of public access to any beaches etc

  69. Tane 69

    Lew: Yeah, I suspect the MP will pick up at least one more seat, but for the purposes of this analysis I’ve had to restrict it to UF, ACT and the MP holding the electorate seats they currently have.

    Toad: Sure. But I don’t believe for a second that the Greens will prop up a Tory government, and neither does anyone else.

    Burt, Sarah: I suggest you go find yourself a corner and have a good cry. When you’ve worked through your issues you can come back and comment sensibly.

  70. Vanilla Eis 70

    How about ditching the Foreshore and Seabed legislation entirely? Or admitting that if the Crown can own the F&S now, that it was therefore once owned to Maori tribes and they can lodge claims with the Waitangi Tribunal for compensation?

    Would that be too much? I can’t see the MP happy going back to how things were before the legislation – it doesn’t resolve the issue. Either the F&S is something that can be owned, in which case the Maori obviously have title to it within their tribal boundaries, or it’s something that cannot be owned and the Crown can’t have it either. I mean, what could the beach possibly be worth these days?

  71. Vanilla Eis 71

    Damn, it wouldn’t let me edit.

    Last post obviously directed at Rob.

    and I wanted to add:

    Would you accept National opening the Waitangi Tribunal up to a few billion more in claims?

    captcha: resisting wire (for now, yes. I’m not done with The Standard and Public Address. No time for the 08Wire!)

  72. Felix 72

    Tane you’re going to be seeing quite a bit of crying and toy-throwing from the likes of burt and Sarah over the next few weeks as they watch their taxless right-wing fantasy slipping away.

    T-Rex: I’d consider it for number 6 alone.

  73. Phil 73

    Steve,

    “people vote greens because they want a more leftwing government, especially on the environment, so yes, i do take it for granted that a vote for the greens is a vote for a labour-led govt, as leftwing a labour-led govt as possible.”

    This is an interesting comment (to which I completely agree) but I put to you this point;

    Any policy change made with the aim of reducing NZ’s climate change ‘footprint’ will disporoportionately hit the lower socioeconomic groups (financially speaking), of which a large number of Maori Party supporters fall into.

    Which, in a round-about way, leads me to believe that Labour will have a more difficult time producing a coalition that includes both the Greens and the MP, than National who, potentially, would only have to deal with the MP.

  74. burt 74

    rOb

    It will be much harder to mount stupid attacks while in opposition if you can then be called to account with your own words and your own standards when in government.

    And it’s also a lot harder to defend valid attacks while in govt if they can be called to account with their own words and their own standards. Labour have lowered the bar on ethical conduct but the polls still move in the direction they have, perhaps people like it when parliament is seen as dishonest and self serving.

  75. Felix 75

    …or… (drumroll)

    You, burt, represent a tiny minority of extreme right wingers and most of the country disagrees with you on every important matter.

    (please note, I’m not saying this makes you wrong)

  76. Paul Robeson 76

    It’s good to see the reasonable loveable Sarah back.

    Before I thought she might have been someone (despite having internet access) who had never lived anywhere outside the 1950s and deserved some courtesy. This is entirely possible to do in New Zealand. Now it is obvious she is simply a troll.

    Or more likely an s and m exponent because the whole blog is painful and yet she has turned up once again to read and comment.

  77. Paul Robeson 77

    You have to love the Herald.

    Their reponse to this poll:

    Start a your views: do you think opinion polls are accurate?

    And more loving given to John Ansell, this time by Drinnan. Does pointing out that advertising is racist and innacurate constitute squealing? For the Herald it does.

    The methodology of the pollsters has long been something that is open to question, but it is only news when the trend is going one way.

  78. Matthew Pilott 78

    Paul – last night I had a look at the Herald’s story on the poll and their reaction was even more crude – the only link being to Key’s “Unauthorised” “biography”.

    It’s like they’re saying – “but read this, c’mon, Key’s much better. Don’t give up on us now”.

    And now it’s as subtle as a brick to the back of the head – a poll looks good for Labour, so after a year of showing, without any doubt, that a National Majority Government is inevitable and imminent, they’re saying “who trusts polls anyway? We don’t even like them. Never did. *sulks*”

  79. burt 79

    Paul Robeson

    You don’t need a very good memory to recall [xyz political party] swinging from ‘rogue poll’ to ‘this poll shows the people have confidence in us yada yada yada’. Up – Good great, Down – Rogue inaccurate. Partisan people are amusing aren’t they.

    Jordan’s blog is a classic. If you look at the graph posted above ( NZ PRIMARY VOTE ) a cynical person might guess that a person like Jordan would have posted about the Morgan poll on two occasions since Jan ’07.

    January ’07 : Morgan Poll: Jan 07
    October ’07 : Roy Morgan welcome news

    rOb

    Here is that google effect again eh.

  80. Jared 80

    If anything, just looking at that graph, you cannot deduce a trend from a extended period of “ups” and “downs” that change week to week, what will you be saying when the next poll rolls around and Labour is down? would you even report that?. You are also assuming that the coalition would be successful, think again. There is nothing to suggest that the Greens and the Maori Party would be more likely to partner up with Labour than they would be National. What you fail to understand is that mainstream New Zealand is fed up with the Labour Coalition, and if anything, voting against Labour than voting for National, it is just convenient that National is the majority opposition party.

  81. gobsmacked 81

    The new Morgan poll is out. A slight widening of the Nat-Lab gap (47.5 versus 36.5), but after last week that’s not surprising. What is surprising is that NZ First are up to 5%, whereas ACT haven’t gained at all. After a week of hell for Winston and heaven for Rodney, you’ve got to wonder if ACT will ever get traction.

    John Key-Ora had better have Tariana and co on speed-dial, from about 6.01 pm on November 8.

  82. Phil 82

    NZ First are up to 5%

    A vote for Winston is a vote for Labour.

    As long as he’s near the magical threshold, Labour will bleed support to National.

    It might not be ‘natural justice’, but it is going to be effective come polling day.

  83. Janice 83

    Personally one would hope that this trend continues on election day.

  84. Janice 84

    By my reckoning there should be another Morgan poll out tomorrow. Bet a, Labour, Green, Progressive, Maori coalition will still be ahead of National.

  85. Ianmac 85

    Have I missed something but isn’t the date above the graph
    4September 2008?
    My glass is half full. Wonder about the other polls? where are they?

  86. Ianmac 86

    Oh Heck! Old post!

  87. Janice 87

    I dug up this article today from Herald archives. It is about the
    2005 polls.

    The Colmar Brunton TVNZ poll gave the election to National in their last poll in 2005 ( as it has just done again. See: Colmar Brunton poll, TVNZ news 6th Nov 2008) while the Roy Morgan poll gave it to Labour. Tomorrows Morgan poll should be interesting.

    The article reveals much about which polls are trustworthy and which ones are not.

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10347022

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