The AUKUS Shell-game

Written By: - Date published: 3:54 pm, October 4th, 2021 - 44 comments
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While the agreement between the 19th Century anglophone maritime powers the US and the UK to admit Australia to the exclusive nuclear submarine club gained all the headlines, another much more significant and imminent agreement was reached between the US and Australian governments on expanding US bases in Australia in the AUSMIN statement. The US gains another unsinkable aircraft carrier.

They needed it because all their other carriers are eminently sinkable. The key wording in the statement is here:

Reestablished at AUSMIN 2020, the bilateral Force Posture Working Group convened in May 2021 to develop recommendations to promote a secure and stable Indo-Pacific region and deter our adversaries.The Secretaries and Ministers endorsed the following areas of force posture cooperation:

  • Enhanced air cooperation through the rotational deployment of U.S. aircraft of all types in Australia and appropriate aircraft training and exercises.
  • Enhanced maritime cooperation by increasing logistics and sustainment capabilities of U.S. surface and subsurface vessels in Australia.
  • Enhanced land cooperation by conducting more complex and more integrated exercises and greater combined engagement with Allies and Partners in the region.
  • Establish a combined logistics, sustainment, and maintenance enterprise to support high-end warfighting and combined military operations in the region.

Aircraft of all types could include nuclear-capable bombers B-52s and B-2s. Increasing logistics and sustainment capabilities of US subsurface vessels in Australia almost certainly means basing US nuclear-propelled and possibly nuclear-armed submarines in Western Australia. Setting up a base for high-end warfighting and combined military operations in the region is the classic American approach to preparing for war. Only this time it is not against countries such as Granada, Vietnam or Afghanistan but a major land-based power.

And Biden hasn’t ruled out the nuclear option in US attempts to contain China. In a statement released after the visit of Japanese Prime Minister Suga to Washington in April, the subsequent statement said:

The United States restated its unwavering support for Japan’s defense under the U.S.-Japan Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security, using its full range of capabilities, including nuclear.

The Australian nuclear submarines will take years to arrive. The US bombers and submarines will be there much sooner. And missiles are on the way as well:

The Secretaries and Ministers discussed Australia’s intent to establish a Guided Weapons and Explosive Ordnance Enterprise.  They committed to cooperate on delivering this complex, long-term endeavor, which will complement the United States industrial base and assure defense supply chains in the Indo-Pacific.

This is why the Chinese have warned that these arrangements make Australia a possible nuclear target.

Australia has chained itself strategically to the US for the foreseeable future. It is a  huge  one-way bet, as all the signs are that the anglophone maritime powers are the ones in decline, as China and the East become ascendant. As China seeks moderate prosperity for all, the neoliberal West sees inequality rising and its citizens see future prospects declining.

New Zealand has come important and crucial choices to  make. We are fortunate in that we are small and far away, and even more fortunate that we are forged by Treaty in two cultures and two languages, not to mention two sets of values and world-views. VietNam and Afghanistan at least should have taught us to stay out of “enhanced land cooperation by conducting more complex and more integrated exercises and greater combined engagement” with the Anglophone powers.

We should also reconsider our new-found foreign policy and defence establishment’s enthusiasm for locating us in the US-preferred and China-containing Indo-Pacific, and concentrate our efforts in support of our pacific neighbours. They need all the help we can give.

 

44 comments on “The AUKUS Shell-game ”

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  1. SPC 1
    4 October 2021 at 4:45 pm

    There are two distinct matters involved.

    One the security of Oz, and the confrontation with China over Taiwan and the South China sea atoll/aircraft carriers.

    To the extent that Oz is committed to participation in the second matter, it's now more at risk.

    To the extent that we are committed to Oz security, our risk has also increased – and we were not (apparently) consulted by Oz about this.

    If we were to withdraw from ANZUS as a result, one wonders what the consequences would be?

  2. Scud 2
    4 October 2021 at 4:49 pm

    A lovely picture of HMAS Melbourne doing heeling trials post refit, the wife’s Pop was in her first commissioning crew from the UK to Sydney prior to his discharge from the RAN late 56- early 57 as he reached his terminal rank on the lower deck for Air Defence & Fighter Direction. He could’ve taken a Commission which the RAN wanted him to do, but back in those days meant 18-24mths in UK unaccompanied with a young family & already having spent 5yrs away during the WW2 plus 18mths away on the HMAS Sydney during the Korean War a enough was enough for the CPO Gibson.

    Which was a shame, as rumour has it when CPO Gibson cross the bar. That he would’ve made Flag Rank had he stayed on as he was very highly regarded in RAN & the RN Training Establishments for his experience, training the Lower Deck, the Snotty’s & the Subbies incl Aircrew & the welfare of his Subordinates.

  3. Brigid 3
    4 October 2021 at 5:04 pm

    Analyses of the hilarious 60 Minutes Australia Episode "War with China"

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=od6Js490cWI&t=8776s

    • gsays 3.1
      4 October 2021 at 6:05 pm

      Good watching, although the humour is kinda dark and resigned to a grim outcome.

      Carl Zha's point is spot on. 'To American citizens, If the PRC 'integrates' Taiwan, your life will not change. If the US and China have a nuclear exchange, your life will change.'

      Edit: re-reading yr comment it was the 60 Minutes piece that was hilarious.

      The next point was how China has no reason to rush in regards to any action in Taiwan as it’s star is rising, however the fading US empire has a small and diminishing opportunity to ‘wave its MIC willy”

      Gives a new perspective to the observation ‘In the UK one hundred miles is a long way, in the US one hundred years is a long time.’

  4. garibaldi 4
    4 October 2021 at 5:09 pm

    Yes the deal is all about America having a huge presence in Australia because their aircraft carriers and their subs are basically obsolete with the new rockets the so called "enemy" have now (or soon will have).

    To me the big question is this….Is the crumbling ,near non existent "American Dream" worth giving up our lives for? Since WW2 that dream has become a bloody nightmare.
    Who will fire the first nuclear bombs? I know who I think it will be.

    • Tiger Mountain 4.1
      4 October 2021 at 5:24 pm

      Who has ever actually employed nuclear weapons?–bingo, full house…–yes, US Imperialism, against the largely civilian populations of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in WWII.

      With various tipping points being reached or approached around the world, maybe Climate Change will do the humans in before nukes do! Australia seems set to become a burnt out sand pit, that no amount of subs will save them from.

  5. Patricia Bremner 5
    4 October 2021 at 5:27 pm

    America is The Roman Empire. Decadent and past their best. Biden trying to patch the States together with the next "new thing" imo. AUKUS Awkward more like. Big money won't pay for this folly small taxpayers will. I know some here admire America, but I think you are looking backwards. America changed after Vietnam and The Bay of Pigs. Now 1.6 trillion USA arms and 8 billion to UNO.

  6. SPC 6
    4 October 2021 at 5:35 pm

    The Juice Media does a backgrounder.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vb5OKrYzZp8

  7. Gristle 7
    4 October 2021 at 7:05 pm

    For a course I was taking (in Australia) the then Collins Class Submarine replacement programme was studied in terms of project risks. Among the conclusions our group arrived at was that the project scope, which limited the solution set to diesel/electric propulsion, was at odds with true performance requirements, and as such the project had a potential flaw in it.

    Though at the time there was neither the political will or public acceptance of moving to nuclear propulsion. And the defence procurement organisation were fighting for the original $90b budget and would have seen that going for a nuclear option was a bridge too far.

    Accordingly, the performance spec would have to be down graded for lesser submersion periods, and smaller hotel load, and shorter patrol periods.

    The nuclear submarines will take at least 20 years to be delivered if Australia has the construction role. 8 to 12 submarines are going to take ages to build. The first one may be ready to leave the shipyard in 20 years, but just wait and see the problems in commissioning it and getting it accepted into the fleet.

    Meanwhile population predictions for China is that its population may well half in the next 35 years. The rise of China as a dominant super power will not be plain sailing. Economic downturn, climate change, population reduction will all stress China internally.

    • RedLogix 7.1
      5 October 2021 at 10:23 am

      Thanks. This is the kind of informed and thoughtful comment that's always really welcome here.

      and as such the project had a potential flaw in it.

      The night before last I was chatting to a marine tradie just arrived here from SA for a new job, straight from working on the Collins maintenance and upgrades – and as usual the people on the ground know what's going on. It was apparently common knowledge for ages the French contract was 'flawed' – although the word he used was the other one starting with f.

      • Subliminal 7.1.1
        5 October 2021 at 9:35 pm

        This flaw in the French subs is the lack of nuclear propulsion? Do you not think that a lot of discussion went into this prior to deciding what subs to get? So why were nuclear subs rejected? There is no nation with nuclear propulsion that doesnt also have a civil nuclear industry. At present it is ilegal for such an industry to exist in Australia. Does this matter? Australia could not sustain and maintain a nuclear propelled navy without this infrastructure. To the Australians this meant that if you can't maintain your own navy it is not sovereign. You do not have control of it. But even supposing they did want to go nuclear further down the track the French subs offered that possibility in their design and did not require the high levels of enrichment that now make the fuss over the Iranian JCPOA a complete joke if it were ever anything else. Malcolm Turnbull lays out the thinking behind the French deal here. Probably a little more insightful than a tradies "the French subs are f**ked

        • RedLogix 7.1.1.1
          6 October 2021 at 7:10 am

          So why were nuclear subs rejected?

          At the time the deal was first inked there was no obvious need for them – the diesel electrics would have sufficed for the coastal defense role that was required at the time – albeit with constraints.

          But that was back in 2013. Everyone was happy doing business with China – and it would be good if that state of affairs had remained.

          • Subliminal 7.1.1.1.1
            6 October 2021 at 8:01 am

            The calculus was still the same. No domestic nuclear infrastructure. On defence of Australia, the smaller more maneuverable French subs were and are better in the shallow local shipping lanes. What has changed is US desire to be able to close the SLOC and thus cripple China as a trading nation. This requires the ability to stay submerged and quiet for long lengths of time. The change is that the focus is now on attacking the percieved weakness of Chinas civilian trading and to drag Australia into this belligerence.

            • RedLogix 7.1.1.1.1.1
              6 October 2021 at 8:25 am

              No domestic nuclear infrastructure.

              Which given that AU is one of the larger suppliers of uranium ores, and has an exceptionally capable mineral processing industry – then it's only a matter of political will and time to change that.

              A decade ago there was not much appetite nor motivation to pursue a domestic nuclear industry, but it's my sense this is changing for a number of reasons. Not all of them related to China.

              What has changed is US desire to be able to close the SLOC and thus cripple China as a trading nation.

              Why should the rest of the world protect Chinese shipping? You take for granted the historically exceptional period since WW2 when it became normal for merchant ships to be able to go anywhere they liked without fear of constraint or raiding. It was for the most part the massive US Navy that provided that security guarantee for everyone – even for Soviet merchant ships during the Cold War.

              But all that is in the past now.

              • Subliminal …
                6 October 2021 at 10:01 am

                The rest of the world protecting Chinese shipping?! I think there was something in your tea this morning. The ability to attack and close Chinese SLOC is the point of nuclear subs. Protect?? Good grief!

    • SPC 7.2
      5 October 2021 at 10:06 pm

      A lot of money extending the Collins class subs out another 10 years to 2030 … then nothing … for 10 years

      For what to build hulls in Adelaide and then send them offshore to become an actual sub?

      If building hulls in Adelaide is more important than having any subs …

  8. Byd0nz 8
    4 October 2021 at 7:45 pm

    We are defending the People, (Governments of the world) say as they waste resources and money into weapons that become obsolete and are left to pollute the planet.

    If they are serious about defending 'The People then surely they should concentrate on the wellbeing of those people by supplying top class Health facilities, top class education facilities, top class infrastructure, top class everything but war shit and alliances with war monger bullies.

    Defenders of war shit will say that's simplistic and such a country would soon be swamped by war monger nations,but would they?, perhaps the country that follows a peaceful path may well inspire 'The People' of warmonger states by the success of putting the people first.

  9. Stuart Munro 9
    5 October 2021 at 10:08 am

    I don't think we need be particularly concerned about AUKUS as a threat to us, or as an immediate cause of war. But Australia does seem to be losing trade security with the EU over it, which is a testament to Slomo's truly stellar lack of ability.

    Some analysis from Caspian Report. (3) French fury as Australia scraps submarine deal – YouTube

    • SPC 9.1
      5 October 2021 at 3:15 pm

      It ties Oz more closely to the USA, thus a greater chance of Oz being involved in the US-China confrontation. And we are a security partner of Oz.

      • Stuart Munro 9.1.1
        5 October 2021 at 3:45 pm

        the US-China confrontation

        is largely theoretical at this point. The imposition of mainland rule on Hong Kong however, was real and forcible, and the rising frequency Chinese incursions of Taiwan's airspace suggests that Xi wants that territory sooner rather than later.

        A bunch of dated nuclear submarines a couple of decades away from delivery isn't especially scary – unless you're a French shipbuilder, or your navy is as green as China's.

  10. RedLogix 10
    5 October 2021 at 10:32 am

    In the meantime the PRC airforce flew a record number of military flights into Taiwanese airspace yesterday.

    That the OP is long on condemning an upgrade to the long standing alliance relationship between the US and AU, while remaining silent on the PRC's active and increasing military confrontation with at least Taiwan and Japan – is to say – remarkably selective.

      • RedLogix 10.1.1
        5 October 2021 at 10:56 am

        The when may well be sooner than imagined. The PRC leadership needs to make a calculation on timing that will look like this:

        Going now has the advantage that the PRC is already at peak readiness, and the US is at this moment distracted by multiple internal challenges and what they must perceive as a weak President.

        Waiting does not accrue the PRC more advantage, but allows their opponents more time to organise. While there is a chance Taiwan will rollover without resistance, this looks increasingly unlikely as each year goes by.

        If it happened next week I would not be surprised.

        • Scud 10.1.1.1
          5 October 2021 at 1:52 pm

          It’s been quite interesting looking at the composition of those PLA-AF Air Task Groups flying into the Taiwanese ADIZ. It’s not so much it’s Fighters, but it’s Maritime Aircraft, Signal’s & Electronic Warfare Aircraft & it’s H6 Bombers armed with underwing cruise missiles.

          Which gives the impression that Chinese are trying to bait the Taiwanese to fire the first shot by wearing down the Taiwanese Fighter Pilots & or the Air Defence Missile Units. So far the Chinese Psy-Ops on the Taiwanese ADIZ hasn’t worked. But it’s only a matter of time before someone on either side cocks up & my gut feeling knowing the psychological pressure of when to shoot or not to shoot from my time Peacekeeping that someone cracking pressure well be some poor bugger from Taiwan.

          This is a game of Chicken or Russia Roulette on Steroids.

          • SPC 10.1.1.1.1
            5 October 2021 at 3:07 pm

            I'm fairly sure the order to the fighter pilots is only shoot down anything that has used weapons on a target in Taiwan (maybe even then get permission).

            Besides if the "visiting" aircraft are coming without fighter cover, it's not to attack – it's to scout and to demonstrate its claim Taiwan is part of China.

            A fly(over) that cannot be removed (swatted away) creates a new normal environment.

    • SPC 10.2
      5 October 2021 at 3:20 pm

      The US fleet moves around the South China Sea, Chinese planes fly around and over Taiwan.

      Was this the point to the creation of atoll/aircraft carrier islands?

      Does no one remember Cuba? The Americans had missiles in Turkey, the Russians were placing some in Cuba. What happened?

      Or the 1980's? Russia with SS 20 missiles in Eastern Europe. So the Americans placed Pershing and Cruise in Western Europe. What happened?

    • Subliminal 10.3
      5 October 2021 at 9:54 pm

      Scud above recognizes the difference between Taiwanese air space and an ADIZ. An ADIZ is an air defense identification zone and is a non binding request for aircraft to identify themselves. The Taiwanese ADIZ was created by the US after the second world war and includes a chunk of mainland China. So I guess it goes without saying that there will be many incursions by China's air force into this zone… You can read more about this manufactured hysteria here. The US says it does not support any State applying it's ADIZ procedures to any aircraft not intending to enter into its national airspace. So I guess thats that then.

      • RedLogix 10.3.1
        6 October 2021 at 7:20 am

        The incursions of concern are not over mainland China – the majority of the larger ones happening to the south-west of Taiwan. The idea that the PRC is somehow the bumbling innocent in this matter is laughable:

        https://thediplomat.com/2021/10/what-do-taiwanese-think-of-chinas-record-setting-incursions-into-taiwans-adiz/

        • Subliminal 10.3.1.1
          6 October 2021 at 7:36 am

          Theres no bumbling innocence. Its difficult to take seriously a Taiwanese ADIZ that includes a chunk of Mainland China and seriously curtails flight paths along the Chinese coast. So exactly, as in the link above, as the US does in other ADIZ, China ignores the Taiwanese ADIZ when they are in transit. You could try looking at the map of the ADIZ in the wikipaedia link above with an unjaundiced eye and you may realise how ridiculous it is.

          • RedLogix 10.3.1.1.1
            6 October 2021 at 7:50 am

            A glance at plots of the incursions of concern invalidates your diversionary tactic here. The Taiwanese ADIZ has existed for decades with few serious concerns until very recently.

            I have a reliable connection who routinely pilots domestic traffic out of Xiamen City, well within the technical boundaries of the ADIZ, without invoking any response from the Taiwanese. Pretending that what we're talking about is ordinary traffic overflying mainland China is directly contradicted by my own personal knowledge.

            • Subliminal 10.3.1.1.1.1
              6 October 2021 at 10:05 am

              Oh well thats all good then. We now only need to refer to RedLogix' personal knowledge to understand China Taiwan relations. Diversionary tactics indeed!

      • Scud 10.3.2
        6 October 2021 at 4:34 pm

        Here’s an interesting map I’ve nicked from Twitter, which outlines the Taiwanese ADIZ & it’s Territorial Airspace. Almost most Civilian Aircraft including Cargo Aircraft are by international law must fly with their Radar transponder on at all times, the reason for this. Is to ensure that these Aircraft are not mistaken for Military Aircraft that don’t require to have its transponder on & get shot down. Unfortunately this is no always the case when it comes to “Human Error” & ones human paranoia towards one country or another.

        https://mobile.twitter.com/CIGeography/status/1445441000252399621/photo/1

        What the Chinese PLA-AF is doing IRT to the Taiwanese ADIZ at, is raging a massive Psychological Ops warfare on the Taiwanese ADIZ Radar Operators/ Air Defence Missile Bty Commanders by wearing them down both mentally & physical while to the same to the Taiwanese AF Pilots, Jets & the Technicians who service the Jets to a point the Jets start going U/S or the Pilots get over stress forcing to lose “face” and then dosomething equally stupid like shooting down a Chinese PLA-AF.

        The Chinese can keep doing this, till the cows come home for milking as they have the numbers to do this, where as the Taiwanese are on a hiding to nothing in more ways than one as they finite number IRT Personal & Equipment.

        • SPC 10.3.2.1
          6 October 2021 at 7:24 pm

          The stress test is a gathering information on Taiwanese capability (synchronised with satellite surveillance of defences).

          Ultimately to convince the Taiwanese, via constant war gaming, that they cannot defend the island.

          A fly that cannot be swatted away lands and has dominion.

          • Scud 10.3.2.1.1
            6 October 2021 at 9:35 pm

            Unfortunately I believe that the Taiwanese have the right to Self Defence under the UN Article 51, A Country has the right to Self Defence if it’s attacked by its neighbor or by any other aggressive country & has a right to Self Determination under the UN Charter as well.

            But I’m not entirely convinced about the Chinese Invasion of Tibet than compare with what happened with West Papua or Timor-Leste prior to us liberating East Timor with INTERFET in 99-00.

            • SPC 10.3.2.1.1.1
              6 October 2021 at 10:06 pm

              “Nothing in the present Charter shall impair the inherent right of individual or collective self-defence if an armed attack occurs against a Member of the United Nations, until the Security Council has taken measures necessary to maintain international peace and security.

              Taiwan is not a member of the United Nations.

              Technically, it does not have the right to protect itself, as it is not a member. And the charter authorises the collective defence, only of members of the United Nations.

              There is reference to

              the authority and responsibility of the Security Council under the present Charter to take at any time such action as it deems necessary in order to maintain or restore international peace and security.

              China has veto power on the UNSC, and regards Taiwan as part of its territory.

            • SPC 10.3.2.1.1.2
              6 October 2021 at 10:25 pm

              Taiwan fails the 4th test to become a state, or even begin a process/path to self determination via the UN (because of it lacks recognition by other states – because of the claim it is part of China's territory).

              a settled population, a defined territory, government and the ability to enter into relations with other states

              1933 Montevideo Convention

              • Scud …
                6 October 2021 at 11:14 pm

                Thanks for the clarification, as I’ve haven’t touched on International Law or the UN Charter since I’ve left the RAAF 2-3yrs ago, so Taiwan is pretty much screwed then?

                I still personally believe Taiwan still have a right to Self Defence & the right to Self Determination. So we are probably going to disagree on this one then?

                I still believe if & when China does make a move on Taiwan, it’s going to spell disaster Sth Korea & Japan in the Nth and the rest of us in the Sth who depend on Japanese & Sth Korea Trade. Regardless of what China says, just like poor old Neville with his piece paper that Herr Hitler had signed in 38.

                • SPC …
                  7 October 2021 at 12:36 am

                  Only a moral cause, as to self-governance, not an international "right" to self-determination".

                  The Americans made things worse by promoting democracy in Hong Kong and planned weapon sales to Taiwan (also dim-witted to promote TPP as a counter to China, then not join).

                  And Biden and Blinken are no better than Trump and Pompeo – no one takes their moral authority or security leadership seriously after Afghanistan. The Chinese will note Biden did not support the liberation of Kuwait (an actual member state of the UN) but did the regime change in Iraq – so they'll see him as weak on standing by Taiwan and yet also willing to threaten governments of nation states, such as their own. This is going to add a number of complications to diplomatic efforts.

                  • Scud …
                    7 October 2021 at 3:40 pm

                    Thence my Moral, Ethical & Values dilemma I have that we must have to stand up for Taiwan against China’s bulling, but US Politics over the decades on this matter doesn’t help either. Or else we will end up like our Grandparents generation failed to do with Herr Hitler or the Japanese until it was to too late.

                    • SPC …
                      7 October 2021 at 6:59 pm

                      My preference would be

                      1. end of NATO.

                      A EU-Russia-Ukraine agreement recognising Crimea as part of Russia, eastern areas of Ukraine also (as determined by plebiscite). Russia takes over a share of the Ukraine debt in compensation and of course sanctions on Russia end.

                      EU-Russia-Ukraine FTA and defence co-operation agreement involving basing of EU forces alongside Russians in Kaliningrad oblast.

                      2. The UNSC permanent members (Russia, China, USA, France and UK) formally sign up to an agreement to guarantee the security of South Korea to replace the need for US forces to be stationed there.

                      The point of these two things is to take Russia and North Korea out of the game.

                      NATO has driven Russia into the arms of China, and North Korea without American forces as an excuse for belligerence is neutered as an attack dog for China (threatening Japan and Oz recently). Restrained by Russian and Chinese guarantees to South Korea, it has no viable future but by improved relations with the South.

                      These two things to isolate China if it continues on a path of ambition for hegemony.

                      3. Offer China the end of weapons sales to Taiwan, in return for Beijing agreeing with Taipei a 50 year continued self-governance period.

                      This might be enough to placate Chinese nationalism.

                      4. Allow China and Taiwan into TPP.

                      5. Wait for population decline in China (that tempers its rise to no more than equality with the USA as an economic and military power) and widespread middle class prosperity to both establish an equal place/status and yet also diminish nationalism (especially as America recedes form its imperial hubris).

  11. Adrian Thornton 11
    6 October 2021 at 8:21 am

    As usual the usual suspects around here put logic on the torture rack to try and explain and justify US/Western global aggression….and as usual there is no special analysis needed on the subject…the US are actively kicking off a new cold war with China/Russia/ Iran at the behest of their military industrial complex, Silicon Valley elite and masters

    “defense stocks outperformed the stock market overall by 58 percent during the Afghanistan War.”

    https://theintercept.com/2021/08/16/afghanistan-war-defense-stocks/

    This is all about defending western elite corporate hegemony and has nothing whatsoever to do with the interests or the welfare or well being of any of the citizens in any of the countries involved that is for sure.

    I have to admit I have been quite surprised at how it has become so obvious and overt over the past little while that a really brutal imperialist, authoritarian streak runs so deeply embedded within the liberal centrists ideology…we see it expressed here on The Standard almost daily in some form or another.

    But the funny(?) thing is I bet all these ‘liberal centrists” would consider themselves to be quite sophisticated urbane free thinkers….where as by piecing together their comments on world affairs over the past while they are really not that different than the English toff in a pith hat lording it around in India not so long ago…funny, sort of.

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    2 days ago

  • The Hoon around the week to Dec 1
    Nicola Willis, Chris Bishop and other National, ACT and NZ First MPs applaud the signing of the coalition agreements, which included the reversal of anti-smoking measures while accelerating tax cuts for landlords. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    2 days ago

  • 2023 More Reading: November (+ Writing Update)
    Completed reads for November: A Modern Utopia, by H.G. Wells The Vampire (poem), by Heinrich August Ossenfelder The Corpus Hermeticum The Corpus Hermeticum is Mead’s translation. Now, this is indeed a very quiet month for reading. But there is a reason for that… You see, ...
    A Phuulish FellowBy strda221
    2 days ago

  • Forward to 2017
    The coalition party agreements are mainly about returning to 2017 when National lost power. They show commonalities but also some serious divergencies.The two coalition agreements – one National and ACT, the other National and New Zealand First – are more than policy documents. They also describe the processes of the ...
    PunditBy Brian Easton
    3 days ago

  • Questions a nine year old might ask the new Prime Minister
    First QuestionYou’re going to crack down on people ram-raiding dairies, because you say hard-working dairy owners shouldn’t have to worry about getting ram-raided.But once the chemist shops have pseudoephedrine in them again, they're going to get ram-raided all the time. Do chemists not work as hard as dairy owners?Second QuestionYou ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    3 days ago

  • Questions a nine year old might ask the new Prime Minister
    First QuestionYou’re going to crack down on people ram-raiding dairies, because you say hard-working dairy owners shouldn’t have to worry about getting ram-raided.But once the chemist shops have pseudoephedrine in them again, they're going to get ram-raided all the time. Do chemists not work as hard as dairy owners?Second QuestionYou ...
    More than a fieldingBy David Slack
    3 days ago

  • Finally
    Henry Kissinger is finally dead. Good fucking riddance. While Americans loved him, he was a war criminal, responsible for most of the atrocities of the final quarter of the twentieth century. Cambodia. Bangladesh. Chile. East Timor. All Kissinger. Because of these crimes, Americans revere him as a "statesman" (which says ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago

  • Government in a hurry – Luxon lists 49 priorities in 100-day plan while Peters pledges to strength...
    Buzz from the Beehive Yes, ministers in the new government are delivering speeches and releasing press statements. But the message on the government’s official website was the same as it has been for the past several days, when Point of Order went looking for news from the Beehive that had ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    3 days ago

  • DAVID FARRAR: Luxon is absolutely right
    David Farrar writes  –  1 News reports: Christopher Luxon says he was told by some Kiwis on the campaign trail they “didn’t know” the difference between Waka Kotahi, Te Pūkenga and Te Whatu Ora. Speaking to Breakfast, the incoming prime minister said having English first on government agencies will “make sure” ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 days ago

  • Top 10 at 10 am for Thursday, Nov 30
    There are fears that mooted changes to building consent liability could end up driving the building industry into an uninsured hole. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: Here’s my pick of the top 10 news and analysis links elsewhere as of 10 am on Thursday, November 30, including:The new Government’s ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago

  • Gordon Campbell on how climate change threatens cricket‘s future
    Well that didn’t last long, did it? Mere days after taking on what he called the “awesome responsibility” of being Prime Minister, M Christopher Luxon has started blaming everyone else, and complaining that he has inherited “economic vandalism on an unprecedented scale” – which is how most of us are ...
    Gordon CampbellBy lyndon
    3 days ago

  • We need to talk about Tory.
    The first I knew of the news about Tory Whanau was when a tweet came up in my feed.The sort of tweet that makes you question humanity, or at least why you bother with Twitter. Which is increasingly a cesspit of vile inhabitants who lurk spreading negativity, hate, and every ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    3 days ago

  • Dangling Transport Solutions
    Cable Cars, Gondolas, Ropeways and Aerial Trams are all names for essentially the same technology and the world’s biggest maker of them are here to sell them as an public transport solution. Stuff reports: Austrian cable car company Doppelmayr has launched its case for adding aerial cable cars to New ...
    Greater AucklandBy Matt L
    3 days ago

  • November AMA
    Hi,It’s been awhile since I’ve done an Ask-Me-Anything on here, so today’s the day. Ask anything you like in the comments section, and I’ll be checking in today and tomorrow to answer.Leave a commentNext week I’ll be giving away a bunch of these Mister Organ blu-rays for readers in New ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    3 days ago

  • National’s early moves adding to cost of living pressure
    The cost of living grind continues, and the economic and inflation honeymoon is over before it began. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: PM Christopher Luxon unveiled his 100 day plan yesterday with an avowed focus of reducing cost-of-living pressures, but his Government’s initial moves and promises are actually elevating ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago

  • Backwards to the future
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has confirmed that it will be back to the future on planning legislation. This will be just one of a number of moves which will see the new government go backwards as it repeals and cost-cuts its way into power. They will completely repeal one ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    3 days ago

  • New initiatives in science and technology could point the way ahead for Luxon government
    As the new government settles into the Beehive, expectations are high that it can sort out some  of  the  economic issues  confronting  New Zealand. It may take time for some new  ministers to get to grips with the range of their portfolio work and responsibilities before they can launch the  changes that  ...
    Point of OrderBy tutere44
    4 days ago

  • Treaty pledge to secure funding is contentious – but is Peters being pursued by a lynch mob after ...
    TV3 political editor Jenna Lynch was among the corps of political reporters who bridled, when Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters told them what he thinks of them (which is not much). She was unabashed about letting her audience know she had bridled. More usefully, she drew attention to something which ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    4 days ago

  • How long does this last?
    I have a clear memory of every election since 1969 in this plucky little nation of ours. I swear I cannot recall a single one where the question being asked repeatedly in the first week of the new government was: how long do you reckon they’ll last? And that includes all ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    4 days ago

  • National’s giveaway politics
    We already know that national plans to boost smoking rates to collect more tobacco tax so they can give huge tax-cuts to mega-landlords. But this morning that policy got even more obscene - because it turns out that the tax cut is retrospective: Residential landlords will be able to ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago

  • CHRIS TROTTER: Who’s driving the right-wing bus?
    Who’s At The Wheel? The electorate’s message, as aggregated in the polling booths on 14 October, turned out to be a conservative political agenda stronger than anything New Zealand has seen in five decades. In 1975, Bill Rowling was run over by just one bus, with Rob Muldoon at the wheel. In 2023, ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago

  • GRAHAM ADAMS:  Media knives flashing for Luxon’s government
    The fear and loathing among legacy journalists is astonishing Graham Adams writes – No one is going to die wondering how some of the nation’s most influential journalists personally view the new National-led government. It has become abundantly clear within a few days of the coalition agreements ...
    Point of OrderBy gadams1000
    4 days ago

  • Top 10 news links for Wednesday, Nov 29
    TL;DR: Here’s my pick of top 10 news links elsewhere for Wednesday November 29, including:The early return of interest deductibility for landlords could see rebates paid on previous taxes and the cost increase to $3 billion from National’s initial estimate of $2.1 billion, CTU Economist Craig Renney estimated here last ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago

  • Smokefree Fallout and a High Profile Resignation.
    The day after being sworn in the new cabinet met yesterday, to enjoy their honeymoon phase. You remember, that period after a new government takes power where the country, and the media, are optimistic about them, because they haven’t had a chance to stuff anything about yet.Sadly the nuptials complete ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    4 days ago

  • As Cabinet revs up, building plans go on hold
    Wellington Council hoardings proclaim its preparations for population growth, but around the country councils are putting things on hold in the absence of clear funding pathways for infrastructure, and despite exploding migrant numbers. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: Cabinet meets in earnest today to consider the new Government’s 100-day ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago

  • National takes over infrastructure
    Though New Zealand First may have had ambitions to run the infrastructure portfolios, National would seem to have ended up firmly in control of them.  POLITIK has obtained a private memo to members of Infrastructure NZ yesterday, which shows that the peak organisation for infrastructure sees  National MPs Chris ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    4 days ago

  • At a glance – Evidence for global warming
    On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a ...
    Skeptical Science
    4 days ago

  • Who’s Driving The Right-Wing Bus?
    Who’s At The Wheel? The electorate’s message, as aggregated in the polling booths on 14 October, turned out to be a conservative political agenda stronger than anything New Zealand has seen in five decades. In 1975, Bill Rowling was run over by just one bus, with Rob Muldoon at the wheel. In ...
    Bowalley Road
    5 days ago

  • Sanity break
    Cheers to reader Deane for this quote from Breakfast TV today:Chloe Swarbrick to Brook van Velden re the coalition agreement: “... an unhinged grab-bag of hot takes from your drunk uncle at Christmas”Cheers also to actual Prime Minister of a country Christopher Luxon for dorking up his swearing-in vows.But that's enough ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    5 days ago

  • Sanity break
    Cheers to reader Deane for this quote from Breakfast TV today:Chloe Swarbrick to Brook van Velden re the coalition agreement: “... an unhinged grab-bag of hot takes from your drunk uncle at Christmas”Cheers also to actual Prime Minister of a country Christopher Luxon for dorking up his swearing-in vows.But that's enough ...
    More than a fieldingBy David Slack
    5 days ago

  • National’s murderous smoking policy
    One of the big underlying problems in our political system is the prevalence of short-term thinking, most usually seen in the periodic massive infrastructure failures at a local government level caused by them skimping on maintenance to Keep Rates Low. But the new government has given us a new example, ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago

  • NZ has a chance to rise again as our new government gets spending under control
    New Zealand has  a chance  to  rise  again. Under the  previous  government, the  number of New Zealanders below the poverty line was increasing  year by year. The Luxon-led government  must reverse that trend – and set about stabilising  the  pillars  of the economy. After the  mismanagement  of the outgoing government created   huge ...
    Point of OrderBy tutere44
    5 days ago

  • KARL DU FRESNE: Media and the new government
    Two articles by Karl du Fresne bring media coverage of the new government into considerations.  He writes –    Tuesday, November 28, 2023 The left-wing media needed a line of attack, and they found one The left-wing media pack wasted no time identifying the new government’s weakest point. Seething over ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago

  • PHILIP CRUMP:  Team of rivals – a CEO approach to government leadership
    The work begins Philip Crump wrote this article ahead of the new government being sworn in yesterday – Later today the new National-led coalition government will be sworn in, and the hard work begins. At the core of government will be three men – each a leader ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago

  • Black Friday
    As everyone who watches television or is on the mailing list for any of our major stores will confirm, “Black Friday” has become the longest running commercial extravaganza and celebration in our history. Although its origins are obscure (presumably dreamt up by American salesmen a few years ago), it has ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    5 days ago

  • In Defense of the Media.
    Yesterday the Ministers in the next government were sworn in by our Governor General. A day of tradition and ceremony, of decorum and respect. Usually.But yesterday Winston Peters, the incoming Deputy Prime Minister, and Foreign Minister, of our nation used it, as he did with the signing of the coalition ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    5 days ago

  • Top 10 news links at 10 am for Tuesday, Nov 28
    Nicola Willis’ first move was ‘spilling the tea’ on what she called the ‘sobering’ state of the nation’s books, but she had better be able to back that up in the HYEFU. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: Here’s my pick of top 10 news links elsewhere at 10 am ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago

  • PT use up but fare increases coming
    Yesterday Auckland Transport were celebrating, as the most recent Sunday was the busiest Sunday they’ve ever had. That’s a great outcome and I’m sure the ...
    Greater AucklandBy Matt L
    5 days ago

  • The very opposite of social investment
    Nicola Willis (in blue) at the signing of the coalition agreement, before being sworn in as both Finance Minister and Social Investment Minister. National’s plan to unwind anti-smoking measures will benefit her in the first role, but how does it stack up from a social investment viewpoint? Photo: Lynn Grieveson ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago

  • Giving Tuesday
    For the first time "in history" we decided to jump on the "Giving Tuesday" bandwagon in order to make you aware of the options you have to contribute to our work! Projects supported by Skeptical Science Inc. Skeptical Science Skeptical Science is an all-volunteer organization but ...
    Skeptical Science
    5 days ago

  • Let's open the books with Nicotine Willis
    Let’s say it’s 1984,and there's a dreary little nation at the bottom of the Pacific whose name rhymes with New Zealand,and they've just had an election.Jesus, Mary, and Joseph, will you look at the state of these books we’ve opened,cries the incoming government, will you look at all this mountain ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    6 days ago

  • Climate Change: Stopping oil
    National is promising to bring back offshore oil and gas drilling. Naturally, the Greens have organised a petition campaign to try and stop them. You should sign it - every little bit helps, and as the struggle over mining conservation land showed, even National can be deterred if enough people ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago

  • Don’t accept Human Rights Commission reading of data on Treaty partnership – read the survey fin...
    Wellington is braced for a “massive impact’ from the new government’s cutting public service jobs, The Post somewhat grimly reported today. Expectations of an economic and social jolt are based on the National-Act coalition agreement to cut public service numbers in each government agency in a cost-trimming exercise  “informed by” head ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    6 days ago

  • The stupidest of stupid reasons
    One of the threats in the National - ACT - NZ First coalition agreements was to extend the term of Parliament to four years, reducing our opportunities to throw a bad government out. The justification? Apparently, the government thinks "elections are expensive". This is the stupidest of stupid reasons for ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago

  • A website bereft of buzz
    Buzz from the Beehive The new government was being  sworn in, at time of writing , and when Point of Order checked the Beehive website for the latest ministerial statements and re-visit some of the old ones we drew a blank. We found ….  Nowt. Nothing. Zilch. Not a ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    6 days ago

  • MICHAEL BASSETT: A new Ministry – at last
    Michael Bassett writes – Like most people, I was getting heartily sick of all the time being wasted over the coalition negotiations. During the first three weeks Winston grinned like a Cheshire cat, certain he’d be needed; Chris Luxon wasted time in lifting the phone to Winston ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    6 days ago

  • Luxon's Breakfast.
    The Prime Minister elect had his silver fern badge on. He wore it to remind viewers he was supporting New Zealand, that was his team. Despite the fact it made him look like a concierge, or a welcomer in a Koru lounge. Anna Burns-Francis, the Breakfast presenter, asked if he ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    6 days ago

  • LINDSAY MITCHELL:  Oranga Tamariki faces major upheaval under coalition agreement
     Lindsay Mitchell writes – A hugely significant gain for ACT is somewhat camouflaged by legislative jargon. Under the heading ‘Oranga Tamariki’ ACT’s coalition agreement contains the following item:   Remove Section 7AA from the Oranga Tamariki Act 1989 According to Oranga Tamariki:     “Section ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    6 days ago

  • BRIAN EASTON:  Peters as Minister
    A previous column looked at Winston Peters biographically. This one takes a closer look at his record as a minister, especially his policy record. Brian Easton writes – 1990-1991: Minister of Māori Affairs. Few remember Ka Awatea as a major document on the future of Māori policy; there is ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    6 days ago

  • Cathrine Dyer's guide to watching COP 28 from the bottom of a warming planet
    Is COP28 largely smoke and mirrors and a plan so cunning, you could pin a tail on it and call it a weasel? Photo: Getty ImagesTL;DR: COP28 kicks off on November 30 and up for negotiation are issues like the role of fossil fuels in the energy transition, contributions to ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago

  • Top 10 news links at 10 am for Monday, Nov 27
    PM Elect Christopher Luxon was challenged this morning on whether he would sack Adrian Orr and Andrew Coster.TL;DR: Here’s my pick of top 10 news links elsewhere at 10 am on Monday November 27, including:Signs councils are putting planning and capital spending on hold, given a lack of clear guidance ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago

  • Gordon Campbell on the new government’s policies of yesteryear
    This column expands on a Werewolf column published by Scoop on Friday Routinely, Winston Peters is described as the kingmaker who gets to decide when the centre right or the centre-left has a turn at running this country. He also plays a less heralded but equally important role as the ...
    Gordon CampbellBy lyndon
    6 days ago

  • The New Government’s Agreements
    Last Friday, almost six weeks after election day, National finally came to an agreement with ACT and NZ First to form a government. They also released the agreements between each party and looking through them, here are the things I thought were the most interesting (and often concerning) from the. ...
    Greater AucklandBy Matt L
    6 days ago

  • How many smokers will die to fund the tax cuts?
    Maori and Pasifika smoking rates are already over twice the ‘all adult’ rate. Now the revenue that generates will be used to fund National’s tax cuts. Photo: Getty ImagesTL;DR: The devil is always in the detail and it emerged over the weekend from the guts of the policy agreements National ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago

  • How the culture will change in the Beehive
    Perhaps the biggest change that will come to the Beehive as the new government settles in will be a fundamental culture change. The era of endless consultation will be over. This looks like a government that knows what it wants to do, and that means it knows what outcomes ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    6 days ago

  • No More Winnie Blues.
    So what do you think of the coalition’s decision to cancel Smokefree measures intended to stop young people, including an over representation of Māori, from taking up smoking? Enabling them to use the tax revenue to give other people a tax cut?David Cormack summed it up well:It seems not only ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    7 days ago

  • 2023 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #47
    A chronological listing of news and opinion articles posted on the Skeptical Science  Facebook Page during the past week: Sun, Nov 19, 2023 thru Sat, Nov 25, 2023.  Story of the Week World stands on frontline of disaster at Cop28, says UN climate chief  Exclusive: Simon Stiell says leaders must ‘stop ...
    Skeptical Science
    1 week ago

  • Some of it is mad, some of it is bad and some of it is clearly the work of people who are dangerous ...
    On announcement morning my mate texted:Typical of this cut-price, fake-deal government to announce itself on Black Friday.What a deal. We lose Kim Hill, we gain an empty, jargonising prime minister, a belligerent conspiracist, and a heartless Ayn Rand fanboy. One door closes, another gets slammed repeatedly in your face.It seems pretty ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    1 week ago

  • “Revolution” is the threat as the Māori Party smarts at coalition government’s Treaty directi...
    Buzz from the Beehive Having found no fresh announcements on the government’s official website, Point of Order turned today to Scoop’s Latest Parliament Headlines  for its buzz. This provided us with evidence that the Māori Party has been soured by the the coalition agreement announced yesterday by the new PM. “Soured” ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    1 week ago

  • The Good, the Bad, and the even Worse.
    Yesterday the trio that will lead our country unveiled their vision for New Zealand.Seymour looking surprisingly statesmanlike, refusing to rise to barbs about his previous comments on Winston Peters. Almost as if they had just been slapstick for the crowd.Winston was mostly focussed on settling scores with the media, making ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago

  • When it Comes to Palestine – Free Speech is Under Threat
    Hi,Thanks for getting amongst Mister Organ on digital — thanks to you, we hit the #1 doc spot on iTunes this week. This response goes a long way to helping us break even.I feel good about that. Other things — not so much.New Zealand finally has a new government, and ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    1 week ago

  • Thank you Captain Luxon. Was that a landing, or were we shot down?
    Hello! Here comes the Saturday edition of More Than A Feilding, catching you up on the past week’s editions.Also in More Than A FeildingFriday The unboxing And so this is Friday and what have we gone and done to ourselves?In the same way that a Christmas present can look lovely under the ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    1 week ago

  • Cans of Worms.
    “And there’ll be no shortage of ‘events’ to test Luxon’s political skills. David Seymour wants a referendum on the Treaty. Winston wants a Royal Commission of Inquiry into Labour’s handling of the Covid crisis. Talk about cans of worms!”LAURIE AND LES were very fond of their local. It was nothing ...
    Bowalley Road
    1 week ago

  • Disinformation campaigns are undermining democracy. Here’s how we can fight back
    This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article. Misinformation is debated everywhere and has justifiably sparked concerns. It can polarise the public, reduce health-protective behaviours such as mask wearing and vaccination, and erode trust in science. Much of misinformation is spread not ...
    Skeptical Science
    1 week ago

  • Peters as Minister
    A previous column looked at Winston Peters biographically. This one takes a closer look at his record as a minister, especially his policy record.1990-1991: Minister of Māori Affairs. Few remember Ka Awatea as a major document on the future of Māori policy; there is not even an entry in Wikipedia. ...
    PunditBy Brian Easton
    1 week ago

  • New Zealand welcomes European Parliament vote on the NZ-EU Free Trade Agreement
    A significant milestone in ratifying the NZ-EU Free Trade Agreement (FTA) was reached last night, with 524 of the 705 member European Parliament voting in favour to approve the agreement. “I’m delighted to hear of the successful vote to approve the NZ-EU FTA in the European Parliament overnight. This is ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • Further humanitarian support for Gaza, the West Bank and Israel
    The Government is contributing a further $5 million to support the response to urgent humanitarian needs in Gaza, the West Bank and Israel, bringing New Zealand’s total contribution to the humanitarian response so far to $10 million. “New Zealand is deeply saddened by the loss of civilian life and the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago

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