Daily review 04/10/2021

29 comments on “Daily review 04/10/2021 ”

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1. SPC 1

   4 October 2021 at 5:47 pm

   An Evergrandeglades update, medium size crocs have been spotted asset stripping and a larger croc is moving in on the torso itself.

   https://www.bbc.com/news/business-58784316
2. Anne 2

   4 October 2021 at 5:50 pm

   Police considering laying charges against Brian Tamaki and associates:

   https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/crime/300422417/covid19-police-considering-charges-over-brian-tamakiled-lockdown-protest

   Good show.

   Here is petition if anybody wishes to sign:

   https://www.change.org/p/nz-police-commissioner-charge-brian-tamaki-over-the-illegal-protest

   As at 5:54pm 88,000 have signed since this morning.
3. roblogic 3

   4 October 2021 at 6:03 pm

   6PM UPDATE: PM announces new strategy for Brian Tamaki and the anti-vaxxers

   
4. observer 4

   4 October 2021 at 6:44 pm

   Roy Morgan polls aren't necessarily the best guide to the party vote, but the question on right vs wrong direction is a far better indication than "I got a column in the paper and I got reckons pulled out of my arse".

   http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8809-nz-national-voting-intention-september-2021-202110040446

   This supports every other survey of public opinion in recent weeks. It seems those who like to equate "I" with "everybody" have been wrong, again.
   • McFlock 4.1

     4 October 2021 at 7:00 pm

     jeez, how long before ACT overtake National: 16% vs 23%, seriously?

     Even applying a healthy dose of rouge to the cheeks of those numbers, the nats just ain't connecting with folks and the right wingers are running to ACT.
     • Red Blooded One 4.1.1

       4 October 2021 at 7:04 pm

       Next step it will be National asking for a "cup of tea" deal with ACT just to get seat.
       • McFlock 4.1.1.1

         4 October 2021 at 7:16 pm

         There'll be a lot of lemon in National's cup.
     • Grafton Gully 4.1.2

       4 October 2021 at 7:19 pm

       Everyone fronting National is a has been (Key) or speaks like a wooden doll (Reti) or is a daddy's boy (Bishop) and no upfront women apart from Jude who sounds deeply tired and disillusioned. Seymour is pumping the message day after day to people longing for something new and credible. No wonder the polls show increasing support for ACT.
     • AB 4.1.3

       4 October 2021 at 9:31 pm

       How long before ACT overtake National: 16% vs 23%

       Among men in this poll, National are only 3.0% ahead of ACT; among women they are 11.5% ahead. Irrespective of the absolute numbers which may be accurate or not, that gap feels right – female radar just tends to more easily pick up on ACT's inherent social cruelty.
5. Tricledrown 5

   4 October 2021 at 7:08 pm

   National will have to move further to the right to stop bleeding votes
   • McFlock 5.1

     4 October 2021 at 7:29 pm

     There's a school of thought that suggests the nats are bleeding to the right because National is (relatively speaking, from a certain point of view) the velvet glove for the iron hearts of tories. It only works if enough soft conservatives manage to convince themselves that going right wing doesn't mean associating with a bunch of sociopaths who would happily make children work 18 hours days under looms and in chimneys.

     Twelve years ago the nats were campaigning as labour-lite. Now they're goddamned plague enthusiasts, willing to risk lots of deaths for travel bubbles because people are tired of it and poor johnny can't visit Hawaii.

     Without the velvet glove, there's no point to National. People can go ACT or go Labour, because National are ACT-lite. Hell, pr-wise national are worse than bloody act.
6. SPC 6

   4 October 2021 at 7:33 pm

   From Churchill to Vichy France within a week or so.

   One person, who will be surprised if government support holds up much longer, reacts.

   http://norightturn.blogspot.com/2021/10/surrendering-to-virus.html
   • observer 6.1

     4 October 2021 at 7:40 pm

     There's been some silly knee-jerk reactions and that's one of them.

     If anyone thinks it's "surrender" they should get the OIA requests in to see what public health people advised.

     It's a debatable balance, but hard to debate that kind of language.
     • Jenny how to get there 6.1.1

       4 October 2021 at 10:05 pm

       PM says returning to level 4 is 'not part of our consideration', as parts of Waikato will move to level 3 tonight

       Reporting by Jonathan MacKenzie – Oct 03, 2021

       'Covid is here and it’s a matter of time before it spreads across the country' – Michael Plank

       Canterbury University mathematics professor, Michael Plank, said Sunday’s developments were concerning for the whole country.

       "The fact that the Waikato cases don’t have a clear link to the Auckland outbreak and have been infectious in the community for several days is concerning.

       “If the Auckland outbreak grows much larger, it will become even harder to prevent Covid spreading to other parts of New Zealand. The message is clear: Covid is here and it’s a matter of time before it spreads across the country.”

       https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300421687/covid19-live-pm-says-returning-to-level-4-is-not-part-of-our-consideration-as-parts-of-waikato-will-move-to-level-3-tonight

       It's official, the elimination strategy is no more. The government is going to try and get us to live with the virus.

       Covid response minister Chris Hipkins admits zero Covid cases are a thing of the past

       NZ Herald – 4 Oct, 2021 06:07 PM

       Covid-19 response minister Chris Hipkins has admitted New Zealand may not eliminate the virus after today's alert level announcement….

       …Speaking to Newstalk ZB's Heather du Plessis-Allan, Hipkins accepted New Zealand may not return to days of zero Covid cases.

       "We have been trending in that direction for the past few weeks and I think people won't be too surprised by that," he said….

       …..Asked whether Auckland's boundary would still be in place by Christmas if mystery cases were still being found, Hipkins said it would be unlikely the boundary would be in place then.

       https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-covid-response-minister-chris-hipkins-admits-zero-covid-cases-are-a-thing-of-the-past/VTCVIKEYPR2HCPOEBUGYSE4Q4I/

       I wonder how long that will last?

       Hipkins is right. I for one, wasn't surprised. It was clear to me that the government has 'been trending' to abandon elimination as a strategy, when they lifted the Level 4 Auckland Lockdown while cases, especially unlinked cases, were still circulating in the Auckland region.
   • miravox 6.2

     4 October 2021 at 7:47 pm

     Right at this moment I feel exactly the same as no right turn. Maybe I'll feel better in the morning, but I'm not sure.
     • Cricklewood 6.2.1

       4 October 2021 at 10:08 pm

       Was a little suprised, but then thinking about it, its clear there is ongoing transmission that no matter the alert level, So you get left with only bad choices, more lockdown that doesnt work and frustration builds, a punitive approach ie start excluding unvaxxed people from society (which will have greater long term issues) or start on the path that they have which sort of reflects whats actually happening in Auckland anyway.

       Now I will say it does seem to be getting very reactive, I felt if elimination was the goal we should have had another week at level 4 and after hearing all last week elimination is still the goal its a bit suprising we've had such a sudden pivot. Daycares for example seem very suprised and unhappy…

       I really think we should have home test kits ready and availble for those that want them, We should offer a more traditional vaccine like sinofarm (quite a few unvaxxed people I know just dont trust MRNA at this point) and would I think take a more traditional vaccine. Prob worth an extra percent or 3 and make antibody testing freely availble again some think they have had the virus and thus immune… making antibody tests more available will either prove them wrong or provide a far better picture of spread.

       Think its fair to say its now our turn to experience what so many countries already have. Lets hope Hendy is wrong.
       • Jenny how to get there 6.2.1.1

         5 October 2021 at 7:13 am

         Cricklewood

         4 October 2021

         …….its clear there is ongoing transmission that no matter the alert level

         That's actually not quite true, Alert Level 4 was not lifted because it was not working, but because the economic sacrifice was judged to be too high.
         • alwyn 6.2.1.1.1

           5 October 2021 at 11:05 am

           "Alert Level 4 was not lifted because it was not working, but because the economic sacrifice was judged to be too high"

           Do you have any evidence that this is actually true? I really doubt that anyone in our Cabinet, at least, has even considered this rationally. I suspect, and of course I will admit I have extremely cynical views on our current Governments actions, that the polls tell them that the Public are getting pissed of and are getting unhappy about the seeming inability of them to actually accomplish what they promise. Better to give up rather than exhibit that they cannot do what they boasted they could do.

           Incidentally, what has happened to the people who praised the Government for their incredibly slow approach to starting a vaccination program? There were people who said that going slow and late with getting vaccines and providing the means for people to get them was a brilliant idea. We don't need them yet some said, because we don't have Covid in the country. We are right not to get vaccines when other countries need them more. And so on. Well do they still say that or are they now among the ranks of those who are insisting that people should get vaccinated, NOW?
       • miravox 6.2.1.2

         5 October 2021 at 9:00 am

         "… its clear there is ongoing transmission that no matter the alert level"

         If people are isolated transmission cannot occur. Agree that we should have had at least another week at level 4. Business always talks about how corrosive uncertainty is. The same can be said for people, and no-one was certain where the govt was going once they decided to move down a level

         My view is that Level 3 was too soon. Politically, it would have been a bad look to backtrack. So here we are.

         Uncertainty still exists. The health system will be at breaking point soon enough and all that political capital the govt has built up will be gone, if the PM has got this wrong. Nothing would make me happier than finding out she go it right and Hendy is wrong, but I really don't think so.
   • McFlock 6.3

     4 October 2021 at 8:54 pm

     I've been avoiding all the hype and just waiting to see what actually happens.

     On a seperate note, was visiting a friend who had given birth over SI level 4. She has a 15yo as well. I said baby looked like Winston Churchill (mum knows me well, it was cool), 15yo didn't know who Winston Churchill was.

     My cliff note was "he saved us from the Nazis but did one or two genocides on the side", but the 15yo agreed that the wikipedia pic did indeed bear a close semblance to the new entry to the clan. Then said baby already had more hair than me, lol
     • alwyn 6.3.1

       4 October 2021 at 9:22 pm

       "more hair than me".

       Oh no! Please don't tell us that you are spitting image of Cristopher Luxon?
     • Jenny how to get there 6.3.2

       4 October 2021 at 10:11 pm

       @ McFlock
       4 October 2021 at 8:54 pm
       “I’ve been avoiding all the hype and just waiting to see what actually happens…..”

       Good strategy.

       I mean how long will Chris Hipkins plan to live with the virus last, before the government are forced to do another about turn, and reimpose lockdowns?

       Chris Hipkins may think that he can remove the boundary between Auckland and the rest of the country before Christmas, while the virus is still circulating, but circumstances may dictate otherwise.

       Australia has Four ICU beds per 100,000 people, to New Zealand's One ICU bed per 100,000 people, and Australia struggled to cope with the NSW outbreak.

       Britain's famed National Health Service NHS has Eight ICU beds per 100,000 people and they struggled to cope with an outbreak of Delta, forcing Boris Johnson to re-impose a lockdown to contain it.

       UK Prime Minister imposes harsh lockdown as new Covid-19 variant spreads

       By Tara John, Luke McGee and Nada Bashir, CNN

       January 5, 2021

       "It is clear that we need to do more to bring this new variant under control," Johnson said. "That means the government is once again instructing you to stay at home."

       During his televised address to the nation, Johnson reimposed measures seen during the first lockdown last spring, including closures of secondary and primary schools to all except the children of key workers and vulnerable children. He added that this means it will not be "possible or fair for all exams to go ahead this summer as normal," and alternative arrangements are being put in place.

       https://edition.cnn.com/2021/01/04/uk/uk-lockdown-covid-19-boris-johnson-intl/index.html
       • McFlock 6.3.2.1

         4 October 2021 at 11:05 pm

         1: is it all Hipkins plan, or is it actually a plan from the advisors to DGHealth to ease some restrictions while minimising the risk thereof, given the picture of the current problem?

         2: circumstances always dictate otherwise. No plan survives contact with the enemy, but sometimes things go better than planned and sometimes they go worse and you need a rethink.

         3: ICU is an old problem. We know that if everything goes to shit hospitals get overwhelmed and people die. That's why we went to L4 in March 2020.

         4: participated in a survey recently, they asked how much out of 10 I'd give the govt response. I graded on a curve – they got 10. Otherwise the govt would have extra credit. Why? <30 dead. So unless Cabinet got drunk and threw their toys out of the cot today, they're probably not surrendering to delta. Maybe they're still working to figure out how to eliminate it while recognising that the nutbars are gaining traction because of the hard slog. After the protests come the nutbar riots.
   • alwyn 6.4

     4 October 2021 at 9:17 pm

     Neale Jones, formerly Ardern's Chief of Staff, doesn't seem to be impressed.

     "I was hoping today we'd hear a plan for a vaccine mandate to get numbers up to 90% plus and then move out of lockdown. Instead, we got a long and confusing surrender note. This is both a policy and a political failure."

     That is on Twitter. I can't work out how to link directly to it though.

     And there was I thinking he was a true believer. Finally it begins to sink in that she really isn't up to it I suppose.

     Still, he seems to be in agreement with NRT
     • weka 6.4.1

       4 October 2021 at 10:07 pm

       Click on the tweet, this will change the URL, copy and paste the URL.

       If you are on a phone, click on the tweet, then the Share icon (tray with an upwards arrow), this should give you the option of Copy Link (ios, probably similar on Android).

       https://twitter.com/nealejones/status/1444863649860911105
       • alwyn 6.4.1.1

         5 October 2021 at 10:49 am

         Thank you. I shall try that next time.
     • bwaghorn 6.4.2

       5 October 2021 at 6:29 am

       Why blame the government for the failing of the muppets who have kept this thing spreading?

       Lockdowns work ,all anger should be pointed at those that did6follow the lockdown road map,
   • Jenny how to get there 6.5

     5 October 2021 at 6:57 am

     '

     'Elimination may be dead'. But half measures, that actually don't stop the virus, will just piss everyone off.

     Covid 19: Elimination may be dead but Auckland's lockdown is very much alive – and lingering

     Luke Malpass, Oct 05 2021

     “I survived lockdown and all I got was this T-shirt”.

     https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/opinion/126576723/covid-19-elimination-may-be-dead-but-aucklands-lockdown-is-very-much-alive–and-lingering.

     The Churchill analogy is a good one.

     Churchill promised the British people Blood, Sweat, Toil and Tears.

     And then delivered on his promise.

     The results spoke for themselves. All the terrible sacrifices the British people were asked to make, were judged in the end to be worth it.
     As a result Churchill, according to all polls, is the most popular Britain of all time.*

     By surrendering to the virus, the Ardern administration has just handed the Right a big fillip.

     *(If Churchill had come to terms with the German nazis, his name would be no more than a footnote in history. I am afraid that this is what will happen to our Prime Minister. Instead of becoming our greatest Prime Minister ever, and world renowned for eliminating the virus, Prime Minister Ardern will become a footnote, in the list of leaders who failed to contain the virus)
7. Drowsy M. Kram 7

   4 October 2021 at 11:57 pm

   NT/QLD/SA/TAS/WA – a total of 2 locally-acquired Covid-19 cases in the last 24 h.

   Disappointed our government is no longer committed to a Covid-19 elimination strategy, but the writing was on the wall when Auckland dropped to alert level 3 on 22 September.
   A miscalculated risk, imho – only hope the team doesn't pay for too dearly for that decision.

   Jack Tame's opinion: Govt's Covid-19 strategy a roadmap with no signs
   Moving Auckland to Alert Level 3 was not consistent with elimination. It was a gamble that risked the gains from a month at Level 4. The Government continued to speak optimistically about stamping out the virus, even as public health experts and modellers publicly demurred.

   Eligible NZ population with two doses: 48% [4 Oct. 2021]
   https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/covid-19-vaccine-data

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