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A long time between drinks

Written By: - Date published: 8:20 am, September 21st, 2009 - 22 comments
Categories: labour, national, polls - Tags:

The latest Roy Morgan poll puts National down 5% and Labour up 4%.

Still a big gap, but it seems at last New Zealanders’ patience is waning over this Government’s competence and honesty issues.

22 comments on “A long time between drinks ”

  1. StephenR 1

    Total support for parties in the National-led Government is still high at 56 per cent, down four points, and support for the Opposition parties is 44 per cent, up four points.

    Despite the fall in support for National, the number of people saying the Government is heading in the right direction is 67.5 per cent, up two points. Those who say it is heading in the wrong direction number 24.5 per cent, up 2.5 points.

    I would’ve imagined the first two numbers would be quite similar to the second two numbers – does it mean opposition supporters think the government is heading in the right direction? Or should I have waited until after 9 to start thinking?

    • Jasper 1.1

      All it means is that people are feeling a bit more secure in their job positions, aren’t fearing for their house values, and are generally a bit more confident about spending money.
      All these things tend to confluence in peoples minds making them think “the governments doing something” when in reality, there are two people at MED working on a cycleway, and a bunch of populist kneejerk policies being thought out.
      Can’t say there’s actually anything of substance this governments doing that should cause people to feel great.
      But never mind as the chickens will come home to roost mid 2011.

  2. The Labour Nat margin has decreased from 27.5% to 18.5%. The next election is a number of blunders and deeply objectionable policy decisions away and there is plenty of time.

  3. StephenR 3

    All it means is that people are feeling a bit more secure in their job positions, aren’t fearing for their house values, and are generally a bit more confident about spending money

    But never mind as the chickens will come home to roost mid 2011

    You might have a tough time with that if the economy improves between now and then 😉

    • Jasper 3.1

      the economy may improve, but anything the RBNZ does takes about 18 months to come to fruition.
      Hence the mid 2011 mark when the RWC is on and NZ is hopelessly underprepared for such a monstrosity.

      • Maynard J 3.1.1

        Is that the NZRU and the Rugby World Cup,

        or

        The Reserve Bank of NZ and the Right Wing Conspiracy

        to which you refer?

  4. Zaphod Beeblebrox 4

    Will be interesting to see how Key reacts to Labour plus Greens getting to about 45%. Then they will esentially be level pegging with National plus ACT. Its not that far away.

  5. First, some narrowing was inevitable. Second, the government is in a rocky patch on a number of fronts. Third, we have a long way to go the next election. From a Labour perspective, this has to be a broadly positive situation for Mr Goff and Labour. Equally, I doubt if there is any panic in the National Party yet.

    I imagine that we will see a continuation of the current sparring for some time, with a further gradual erosion of the gap. There are things in train that might upset that forecast. For example, Mr English may fall on his sword and make way for Mr Joyce. Again, the full costs of the Supercity merger may become apparent as 2010 progresses (this is a sleeper that has still to be understood, but, for example, the IT costs of the merger are potentially vast, and someone will have to cover the costs). There are issues across health, education, treaty matters, welfare, trade and so on all to be confronted in the next year. Mr Key has still to perform under real pressure, when a smile and easy manner will not suffice. The next year will be interesting.

  6. George D 6

    Labour needs to take care not to upset Maori Party more than they already have, and realise that they might actually need them. What if the left got to 48%, and the MP held the balance of power?

    • snoozer 6.1

      “What if the left got to 48%, and the MP held the balance of power?” then I would expect the Maori Party to remember where they come from.

      Look, the MP is supporting the National government. They can’t expect a free-ride for selling out just because we might need them to stop selling out in the future.

      You’re totally wrong in saying that Labour should be ‘careful not to upset’ them, you’re asking Labour to tacitly back them for selling out. Anyway, Labour hasn’t exactly been harsh on the MP, they’ve been gentle.

      If the scenario you paint comes to pass I’m confident that the parties of the Left, including the Maori Party, will let bygones to bygones and work together, just as other parties have in the past (look at the way the MP and National have forgotten what they used to say about each other)

    • Maynard J 6.2

      “What if the left got to 48%, and the MP held the balance of power?”

      Turia will be gone.

  7. Tim Ellis 7

    I think the numbers will bounce around a bit, but just as it’s a bit pointless for National supporters to crow over every positive poll shift it’s equally a bit tiresome for Labour supporters to crow about a shift in their direction only to remain strangely silent when the numbers go against them again.

    The poll shifts are well within the margin of error. It will be interesting to see if there’s an actual trend one way or the other in a couple of months’ time.

    • Armchair Critic 7.1

      Yes, it is dull.
      No, the numbers are not within the margin of error.
      Yes, it will be good to see a trend in a couple of months time.

      • the sprout 7.1.1

        correct AC.
        margin for that sample around the 30-70% range would be < 2% i'd guess. very likely a statistically significant change, but as TE says it's all a bit moot until we can see trend data.

    • lprent 7.2

      I’d agree with TE. The trends are more interesting than the numbers. Wait until the next poll or even two.

      In this case I would comment that the swing is quite strong. It will get interesting if the poll numbers are maintained or even bettered in Labours direction in the next Morgan poll.

  8. illuminatedtiger 8

    Treat this as a confirmation that 2011 is not going to be for Labour what it was for National in 2002. Goff is in control and just needs to keep the hard work up to form the next government.

  9. Zaphod Beeblebrox 9

    National have set themselves up with some hot potatoes, their high wire act between the redneck part of their constituency and the swinging voter is bound to create tension.
    The Seabed/Foreshore Act, the ETS legislation, the three strikes legislation, the Auckland supercity agenda , Watercare privatisation and the Maori seats, increasing prison numbers, tax reform are all areas where we have no idea where they are going to jump as they have been saying different things to different groups.
    If labour were smart they would keep their moiths shut for the next six months.

    • Zorr 9.1

      Better to let National put their foot in it rather than trying to shove your own foot in your mouth… ^_^

      • Zaphod Beeblebrox 9.1.1

        Kind of. Develop some credible policies and don’t get sucked into taking the populist rhetoric because it may get you some short term support. Judging by Cosgrove’s boy racer race to the bottom with Collins, they don’t seem that interested in following this line much though.

        I’d follow the example of Obama in the primaries against Hiliary- he treated voters like adults and had the respect returned.

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