The long wait

Written By: - Date published: 9:47 am, October 16th, 2023 - 57 comments
Categories: Economy, Politics - Tags: ,

As it stands right now with the indecisive election result, we’re probably going to have a caretaker government for some time. The election results happen after counting the special votes locally, from other countries, and from places like Antarctica and military missions. The election results are targeted to be declared on November 3rd. The last day for the writ is on November 9th.

This usually results in a few seats shifting between parties, and often appeals for judicial recounts. In the case of this election, also a by-election in Port Waikato on November 25th with official results on December 6th caused by the death of a candidate.

My emphasis on a indecisive result is because currently the potential NAct government based on previous statements by party leaders do not currently appear to have a clear majority of seats in parliament. There are possible seat changes from specials and probable parliamentary overhangs to 122 or maybe even 123 members. That affects all coalition arrangements.

Plus of course Winston Peters of NZ First, the most likely third party for a coalition, is well known to always want to know what cards he is holding before starting any serious coalition or support negotiations. Bearing in mind the rather obvious policy variations and antipathies between National, Act, and NZ First, coalition arrangements could be quite time consuming and have been in the past.

So we’re probably in a limbo for at least a few weeks and possibly quite a lot longer. The country will be running under a caretaker government from the previous parliament while coalition arrangements are hammered out to secure a reliable parliamentary majority.

Fortunately, caretaker governments haven’t been a problem politically after the devaluation events of 1984. It is unlikely to be this time as well.

The main effect will probably be on the timing of the next sitting of parliament with any legislative changes and when a mini-budget with any changes in fiscal policy can be voted on. That would obviously require a vote of confidence in the incoming government in parliament.

57 comments on “The long wait ”

  1. SPC 1

    Enough time to win the World Cup rugby under a Labouir government for the first time since 1987 and get to 4 before the Boks.

    Tea time in Paris with the girl from Herne Bay. Revenge for 1995.

    • lprent 1.1

      Sport – (yawn) – who really cares…

      • SPC 1.1.1

        Yeah I know … you have a computer server and tech in the spare room, most people would have a big screen TV or full on theatre (visual and sound) set up … .

        • lprent 1.1.1.1

          Spare room? I wish we had one or two.

          This is the left wall of our living room in our one-bedroom Auckland apartment. We mostly work here as well as live here. I go to the workplace once a fortnight, my partner has various places she goes to write when she wants to focus.

          https://thestandard.org.nz/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/The-office-scaled.jpg

          That is 2 office desks, 6 computers, 3 computer monitors, and one large TV with a sound bar. My partner's primary training is in video so a reasonably sized screen screen and decent audio for it is a work requirement .

          We don't have surround sound because it penetrates even the best noise cancelling headphones. So we use a focused sound bar. I can't code with drama, doco or rom-coms wippering away in the background. It is distracting, so the audio is focused at the couch.

          I think that you misunderstand my point. Most sport is just entertainment for couch potatoes – as you inadvertently pointed out. It has roughly the political significance of any other mindless diversion like Shortland Street. It has virtually no economic benefits outside giving a reason for the young to develop healthy exercise habits, and is invariably just a nett drain to the country and regions that support it.

          I'd also argue that sport in its modern forms being mostly done to produce mindless and relatively cheap air-time for media conglomerates that is mostly useful for dumbing down the mental activities of adults as they become mindless couch-potatoes.

          Your point is – what? That you are a mindless lump on a couch?

          So as I say, (yawn)..

          (adding photo)

          • SPC 1.1.1.1.1

            Literature is also a product consumed, as is music, as is film, as is gaming, as is theatre, as is dance – including appreciation thereof to the couch.

            These are parts of the economy.

            Those with talent earn their way and this is part of the economy (its more than widgets), more so as automation/robots and AI kick in.

            Cultivating that here, so Kiwis can flourish in the world is part of our future (economic and more) success.

            • lprent 1.1.1.1.1.1

              But how much are they economically productive parts of the economy – ones that expand the economy as a whole and thereby allow higher nett incomes throughout the economy and investments to further expand it further?

              t isn't so much that I mind paying for keeping mindless couch-potatoes entertained. It is more the routine presumption that I should actually be interested and even polite about their idiotic addictions. I find that to usually be pretty offensive. And after all providing bed and circuses to stop people rioting and rebelling has a long political history – look at the post-republic Rome all the way to the end of the Byzantium empire for a fine set of examples.

              Are they just providing subsidised employment to small communities of people that get employed by them without any nett economic benefit. Or hidden subsidies to companies that sell advertising?

              I really don't like unclear subsidies with little economic purpose.

              The subsidies to groups like low nett profit areas like farming (rural roads being the obvious example) are really expensive when you bear in mind the extremely small nett profit margins on their products. Which is why the farming lobby spends a lot of time talking about their revenues rather than their effective margins. However it does become pretty clear when you look at the tax take from the farming and processing sector. It is so low that the nett tax take appears to usually be negative.

              Or the subsidies to truckers where maintaining roads for the use of heavy vehicles is colossally expensive – one that their RUC payments only pays a tiny proportion of the maintenance cost of repairing their damage.

              Or the effective subsidies to landlords seeking capital gains via the tax treatment of their costs.

              Or the stupid tax subsidies that mean that every fourth vehicle on Auckland roads that I have try to see past is a Ford Ranger or a similar vehicle brought by a 'tradie' with a favourable tax break. I do wish that National would apply some of their 'free market' waffle to that economically counter-productive subsidy. It would make more sense than their economically stupid policy to slow the sizeof the second hand EV fleet in NZ.

              In the absence of any economic argument for the retention of these kinds of subsidies, where ultimately I am paying via my taxes and costs for someone else interests, I'd like some of these boondoggles removed.

              The money would be better spent on things that actually improve our greatest asset – the health physical and mental, skills and training of our population.

              • SPC

                Is the making of a labour saving device part of the productive economy? Or just a way to allow people leisure time – to consume – read, listen and view and grow their humanity collective.

                One can be quite reductive about people moving on from subsistence economy via rewarding people who provide their talent to the urban centre/capital to enrich its Queen (beehive service to honey addiction) society. The word society is larger than the word economy …it builds, but is not, civilisation on earth itself.

                But, as you note, what is productive economy, is not always what it seems.

              • SPC

                The money would be better spent on things that actually improve our greatest asset – the health physical and mental, skills and training of our population.

                Sure the foundation of both an economy and society are the people.

                It speaks to the issue of replacing workers who move to Oz for better wages and better chance to own their home with those who seek residency here, rather than require business to support training/apprenticeships/internships for locals as a prerequisite (and also to provide housing to migrant workers or domestic workers to move to the job locale).

                The facts, as per our decline in home ownership and impact on health, are like the decades old research on early years and long term outcomes, becoming known and cannot now become unknown.

                https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/world/2023/10/new-study-finds-shocking-link-between-renting-and-aging.html

              • Descendant Of Smith

                Much of the economy is based on

                1. Making shit no one needs – water balloons or rubber wrist bands for example
                2. Building in deliberate obsolescence to increase turnover – iphone, printers, etc
                3. Make-work jobs such as the far too many comms people in NZ or petrol pump attendants
                4. Fake competition that gives the illusion that competition exists –

                https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luxottica

                "Luxottica retails its products through stores that it owns, predominantly LensCrafters, Sunglass Hut, Pearle Vision, Target Optical, and Glasses.com. It also owns EyeMed, one of the largest vision health insurance providers. In addition to licensing prescription and non-prescription sunglasses frames for many luxury and designer brands including Chanel, Prada, Giorgio Armani, Burberry, Versace, Dolce and Gabbana, Michael Kors, Coach, Miu Miu and Tory Burch,[7] the Italian conglomerate further outright owns and manufacturers Ray-Ban, Persol, Oliver Peoples, and Oakley. Luxottica's market power has allowed it to charge price markups of up to 1000%."

                Still putting more people in jail will increase GDP. I mean there are whole towns in the US that depend on governments doing this.

              • AB

                I think economic value is too narrow a criterion. There are other types of value that may play indirectly into economic value, but may not. What about public libraries? Most of the books people borrow don't lead them into more productive work. Currently I'm reading Judith Binney's 1968 biography of Thomas Kendall and the ill-fated early CMS mission to the Bay of Islands from about 1814-1820's. However high-minded that might seem, if I'd borrowed it from the public library, that would technically be a subsidy to economically unproductive activity.

                When I was young and played a sport at club and junior representative level, I think it had a social value. I got to play in and against teams that contained people that as a middle-class kid I may not have otherwise met or drunk at the pub with – farmers especially, but also tradespeople, labourers, provincial professionals like accountants, a real estate agent, a local 'tycoon' who owned a car yard. I barely watch sport now – and when I do it's only the game that I had some skill at. The result doesn't actually bother me that much, I like looking at the techniques and skills of elite players, because I have some understanding of how hard it actually is. It is the good form of envy (i.e. admiration) not the bad form (i.e. frustrated greed).

                Anyway – enough from me. I do think that on 'the left' we need to be generous in our perception of what value is and how it is produced.

    • Obtrectator 1.2

      Agree with L Prent. Is there no escaping the Shutduffer Cup?

  2. Mike the Lefty 2

    Nicola Willis will be the one to lose as Seymour will have his greedy eyes set on Deputy PM and will Luxon show loyalty to his 2IC?
    I wonder.

    • SPC 2.1

      NZF might see the ACT leader as deputy PM as a slight to their role in a three way deal.

      Imagine Seymour as acting PM before the end of the year while Luxon was overseas …

    • Janice 2.2

      Nicola could also miss out to Brooke VV in finance, as I understand BVV has a degree in economics and will no doubt be looking to use it.

      • SPC 2.2.1

        National prefers those with English literature degrees like Bill and Nicola (maybe why William English hired her as a researcher).

        WE did work at Treasury, which was a better nursery for understanding the reality of hard numbers than Fonterra.

        • Ghostwhowalks 2.2.1.1

          Bill English BA from Otago was upgraded to BA Hons from Vic when he did further study while working at Treasury . Normally you would have had to get at least Masters hons to get a job there .

          Van Velden was a BA/ Bcom, but that could included lots of stuff . Luxon has a Bcom too but never claims any economics expertise – instead is deodorants and icecream marketing

  3. Dennis Frank 3

    I did predict the moot outcome on election night once or twice but the balance I mentioned elsewhere isn't quite there nor the hung parliament so I'm waiting for the specials to see about those two.

    Seymour & Luxon have agreed on tv this morning to head straight into negotiating but Luxon specified building personal relationships ahead of that. I suspect that means he'll head in with an exploring attitude to size up possibilities. Seems confident & assured about how he had done this kind of thing in the past (different contexts though).

    • Ghostwhowalks 3.1

      Bolgers approach – with a bottle of whiskey …LOL

      I understand the actual negotiating is done by others not the party leaders – they just pull the strings.

      That was a labour party advantage as they had Union leaders who knew the ropes

      If I was a party leader I would bring in professional negotiaters, who have done that sort of thing before. Big companies train their people to negotiate contracts, insurance, labour agreements etc

  4. Tiger Mountain 4

    Heh, the provincial groundswell lot and sheep shaggers will really enjoy this hiatus…

    Yet again though the “missing million” (1,060,038) have to be taken into account in this election result. There were 692,430 people enroled who didn't vote & another 367,608 who were eligible but didn't enrol; 20% of under-40s didn't enrol, while 1% of over-60s didn't enrol; 183,169 fewer voters than 2020 going by EC figures.

    https://elections.nz/media-and-news/2023/election-night-results-for-the-2023-general-election/

    Hope I am still here for 2026, because if Act charge on with their Tiriti attack there will likely be political movements galore ready to finally dispatch Rogernomics and Ruthanasia.

    • Grey Area 4.1

      "Hope I am still here for 2026, because if Act charge on with their Tiriti attack there will likely be political movements galore ready to finally dispatch Rogernomics and Ruthanasia."

      Not sure I get the connection but I hope the backlash is comprehensive. If it also sweeps away neoliberalism that will be great.

  5. Ad 5

    Ardern's mini-budget was 14 December 2017, for reference of Luxon’s own promised one.

    Luxon and Willis must roll out their 100 day plan and proposed mini budget by then and hopefully don't wait until December 6th for the final Port Waikato result.

    There are a lot of really big government projects right in the middle of procurement at the moment, and the very last thing we need is an indecisive interregnum.

    Also of course the fates of several thousands of public service workers, including the 8 Multi Employer Agreements currently in negotiation.

    Luxon and Willis wanted the job, they better damn well do it fast.

    • Tiger Mountain 5.1

      Lolz–Baldrick and Dracula’s daughter well exposed themselves on the campaign trail.
      This will not be a serious Govt. as many of us like to think of one.

      The Natzos are deadly serious though about shrinking the state, transferring more public services and infrastructure to private capital, and serious about supporting international finance capital.

      • Mr Nobody 5.1.1

        While it may not be what you or many here want it is clear that the majority of New Zealanders who voted on Saturday do want it.

        Personally I think it is an opportunity to ensure the right people are doing those roles in comparison to staff who are incapable of answering any questions relating to the correspondence sent out by their organisation to clients like the one I spoke to at the Winz Contact centre this morning.

        • bwaghorn 5.1.1.1

          of New Zealanders who voted on Saturday do want it.

          Na most of them haven't got a deep thought process, labour dropped the ball on some stuff, national promised to not drop the ball, plus racism and a huge war chest is what happened

        • Ghostwhowalks 5.1.1.2

          "is clear that the majority of New Zealanders who voted on Saturday do want it."

          Have you seen the tiny % for ALL the minows combined – most of who were spawned out of/ morphed into the covid protest movement

          https://www.newsroom.co.nz/fringe-parties-struggle-to-raise-a-crowd

          The fringe parties' totals were part of a grand total of 5.97 percent of the vote on election night – thats including TOP at 2.0% and Cannabis Party at 0.4%

          Gunns NZ Loyal was 1.15%, more than all the other covid nutters together

          Freedoms NZ (7031), Democracy NZ led by former National MP Matt King (5544), New Conservatives (3587), the Leighton Baker Party (1814) and New Nation (1288)

          Nobody , your untruths are showing

          • Mr Nobody 5.1.1.2.1

            The Majority of Voters (currently made up of National, Act and NZ First), have a diverse range of opinions and NZ First has absorbed a number of supporters from the Wellington protests.

            As the Media and Left Wing parties pointed out through out their campaign that this make up of parties was likely it is equally fair to say that the majority of voters do support it as the possible cost of forming a government.

            You may feel otherwise but that is the truth no matter how much you may wish it wasn't and to insinuate I am lying merely reflects your in ability to deal with facts and reality.

            • Ghostwhowalks 5.1.1.2.1.1

              So its your opinion , but not based on the numbers of votes

              Maybe the 6% of NZF want a Covid enquiry , who knows ?

              but thats still leaves the 2-3% of covid obsessed voters for those partys who made their highlight – they dont have any say as they are under 5% and are counted again

              • Mr Nobody

                Ahhhhh Ghost, I could waste my time trying to make you understand reality and truth or enjoy the last of the afternoon sun and take my dogs for a walk along the beach.

                Have a nice evening.

                • Barfly

                  "…waste my time trying to make you understand reality and truth.."

                  Arrogant clown.

                  • bwaghorn

                    I reckon I could beat Mike Tyson in a fight as long as I don't actually turn up ill never be proved wrong, says Mr nobody

  6. observer 6

    There's a lot of talk about getting a deal done, but if Luxon has any sense (?) he – or his more experienced advisers – will realize that what matters is the longer-term consequences of those agreements, not whether they were signed in Nov or Dec.

    If he thinks he can solve a problem by agreeing to Winston's Covid inquiry, he's a fool. He'll only be creating a much bigger problem instead. If the inquiry says "Jacinda Ardern was not actually a murderer" then the frothing fringe will call it a whitewash.

    I'm not sure that commentators have yet grasped what the new NZF voter base wants. It ain't Foreign Minister and handouts for horse racing.

    • Mr Nobody 6.1

      As we have seen iver the last 6 years the result from any enquiry is largely able to be directed by what questions/areas they put forward to be answered and who is tasked to lead it.

      If the Government wanted to for example to have an enquiry with a predetermined outcome of indictments in line with the Nuremberg V2 requirements it would would be easier to arrange than a victory party for Chippy. Then it would be just as easy to point the failure of prosecutions as a failure of "the corrupt and leftist Judges" of the judiciary which clearly requiring "restruturing" to ensure justice is being served for New Zealand.

    • tsmithfield 6.2

      I think an inquiry into the Covid response is probably a sensible thing. Not so much from sheeting blame to Jacinda or anyone. But from the perspective of learning how things can be done better next time something like this crops up.

      • Mr Nobody 6.2.2

        Completely agree. Finger pointing and playing the blame game is a IMHO a waste of energy.

        However unless we look at the crisis fully, completely and publicly then if/when the next pandemic occurs the nation will be ill prepared to face the same challenges again.

      • observer 6.2.3

        That may be what you think an inquiry should be. The kind of sensible, objective, non-partisan review that any organisation would do in our usual work environment: what was done well, what can be done better, etc. Fine.

        But it certainly isn't what the protesters at Parliament want, the ones who Winston has been pandering to, and got him over 5%. They already held a "trial", they know their verdict, and have not the slightest interest in being told anything else.

        Luxon has no political reason to pander to them. He'll be judged by National voters and swing voters on cost of living, crime, health, etc.

        He would be crazy to derail his own agenda.

        • Mr Nobody 6.2.3.1

          Luxon has plenty of reason to agree to an enquiry.

          1/It enables NZ First to gain a win and virtually zero political cost to him as he can just write it off as a part of the price of coalition, the will of the voters etc etc.

          2/It will enable continual attacks on Labour in addition to providing on going reminders to all the voter of the impact of the lockdowns which are now viewed by the majority of the population as wrong/over reactions.

          3/If shaped the right way can be used to add justifiction for changes to the judiciary, law and order, health, education etc

          4/And worse caee might actually turn up something useful which can be sold as another win by the government.

          • observer 6.2.3.1.1

            You're saying the new PM should scrap the Royal Commission that his party called for and he supports?

            Wow.

            • Mr Nobody 6.2.3.1.1.1

              Or simply expand/redefine the terms of reference which they can easily justify by arguing "The previous government failed to ensure the Covid crisis was going to be properly investigated and to ensure that it is as well as to ensure the valid concerns raised by our coalition partners we are expanding it to include……"

              "Furthermore due to this expanded remit we will feel that the current inquiry personnel lack the required skill set and thank them for their work so far which will be continued by……."

              Anything is possible if it is wanted and 95% of the population have shut off from politics for the next 2.5 years.

              • observer

                the current inquiry personnel lack the required skill set

                Ha ha ha, you are more clueless with every post.

                John key's protege Luxon is going to slag off John Key's Minister Hekia Parata?

                To be replaced by … Winston Peters' brother? That bloke from the pub who liked something on Facebook?

                Headline: "Shane Reti, who previously welcomed the Royal Commission, today had to defend his National party friend and colleague and said that Mr Luxon misspoke … "

                Look, I don't have much respect for Luxon but even I don't think he wants to press the self-destruct button so soon.

                Maybe you should just be honest and admit that you didn't know there was a Royal Commission, didn't know who was on it and didn't know Luxon supported it.

                • Mr Nobody

                  Im more than willing to admit that:

                  Yes knew there already a Commision.

                  No didn't know who was leading (because frankly I don't care as they are largely irrelevant especially if you want a pre-determined result vs an honest review. All you need is a compliency).

                  My comment was simply pointing out if the government wants to change the person leading it they can. It's just a matter of phrasing it, however seeing the current person has National links perhaps that wouldn't be needed to get the result "needed".

                  Personally I have reached the point that I believe politicians (of all sides) are more focused on obtaining and maintaining power than actually improving this country and its citizens. As such they treat you and I the voter as things needing to be manipulated and controlled vs actually improving the country and society.

        • newsense 6.2.3.2

          It would be a David Cameron type move and exactly why this bunch is dangerous. Luxon won’t have the same chance to zig zag around as he did on the campaign trail.

    • Ad 6.3

      We don't need to worry about what the imaginary NZFirst voter wants anymore.

      I'm just looking forward to Winston's game over the next 8 weeks.

      • Mr Nobody 6.3.1

        Are you not thinking about 2026 yet?

        • Ad 6.3.1.1

          Winston has an agenda inscrutable even to his own caucus. Let alone his voters.

          • Mr Nobody 6.3.1.1.1

            Yep, as does every other politician and their party.

            Non NZ First supporters (of which just for the record I am NOT one) have regularly used the attack line "Winston First" as if the same does not apply to their own political party/favorite politician.

            As I see it, they're all as bad as each other and see politics as simply an avenue for their own advancement and enrichment.

            • Ad 6.3.1.1.1.1

              It's an uneven link.

              The 2017 NZF+Labour coalition agreement was pretty rock solidly based on the campaign promises.

              The 1999 and 2002 Labour first budgets rolled out their pledge card promises clearly from the campaign.

              The National 2008 campaign promise on selling 49% of specific Crown companies was done in short order.

              The 2020 Labour one frankly had very little in it to promise, nor did National's from 2014.

              All indications are that National is indeed preparing to deliver on its tax package no matter if ACT or NZF question it. We can but wait and see for a couple of months.

              • lprent

                All indications are that National is indeed preparing to deliver on its tax package no matter if ACT or NZF question it. We can but wait and see for a couple of months.

                But that will be a confidence vote. It means that gaining support for it will have to be obtained from NZF and Act in coalition agreements – making them complicit in any of the decisions to allow those cuts to be funded.

                It is also going to be fascinating to see what Treasury has to say about it. Clearly the suggested sources (apart from plundering the ETS fund to put into the general fund – and that will probably be subject to court battles) are unlikely to pass the Treasury scrutiny.

                BTW: It is quite clear from the Castalia report that they didn’t test the funding side. What they said was essentially ‘that given the assumptions handed to us by Nicola Willis and her team, the numbers add up’. So don’t claim that as proof of feasibility because it simply is not.

                Castalia simply didn’t look at the assumptions of how the tax cuts would be funded. It was a particularly elegant way for National to lie over ‘costed’ policy. But I suspect that here in the future it will simply cement a reputation for Castalia of being the consultants that you go to when you want to add a sheen of respectability over a economic scam.

                Treasury will and will have to provide some estimates on being able to obtain the revenue to fund them, and that will be published and any advice will be subject to OIA. Then it gets interesting.

                I must read up on the ETS legislation about the usage of funds. It seems hard to see how how a tax based fund created for such a specific purpose can be plundered in such an obvious manner for purposes so far from its purpose.

  7. tsmithfield 7

    I don't think there is any chance that NZ First gets ejected on the specials:

    https://elections.nz/media-and-news/2023/election-night-results-for-the-2023-general-election/

    NZ First got 6.46% of 2234380 votes counted. That equates to approximately 1440000 votes. Allowing for 500000 specials, which is the number I have heard thrown around, and assuming that NZ First got 0 of those, they would be 144000/2734380*100 = 5.26% of the vote.

    Hence, even in the worst case scenario, NZ First is still in power.

  8. Kat 8

    Winston is correct in mentioning the "numbers" and asking for the "maths"…………

    Hardly a majority result in any one direction in terms of what voters want……..so far

    Preliminary results of votes on election night:
    Left bloc Labour – 602,816 Right bloc National – 875,234
    Greens – 241,977 Act – 202,077
    TPM – 58,393
    Left 903,186 Right 1,077.311

                        Centre bloc NZF - 145,084
    

    Minor Parties Total – 118,799

    Specials to be counted – 567,000 (approx)

    https://elections.nz/media-and-news/2023/election-night-results-for-the-2023-general-election/

  9. Corey 9

    After the specials and by-election it's pretty much certain national and act will be on 59-61 in a 122 to 123 seat parliament meaning we're getting a minority govt.

    In that scenario Winston, who having returned from the dead, again, might actually want to sit on the cross benches rather than go straight back into another coalition (this time with people he is economically ideologically opposed to and personally despises)

    That way he gets the best of both worlds, he gets to be in his favorite place (opposition) but with extreme power, because if either block wants to pass a law they need to kiss the ring and go through him.

    I don't see any benefit of a coalition or c/s deal for nzf for 2026 but sitting on the crossbenches and not voting the govt down makes him incredibly powerful and he gets to sit in parliament and shout insults at everyone while claiming to be the handbrake.

  10. Thinker 10
    1. I, too, predicted this kind of outcome, although it's hardly something to brag about – the scuttlebutt reflected it.

    2. As said in a previous comment, however, unlike most Standardistas, I'm fairly OK with it. Perhaps now that hopes of a Labour win have been dashed, others might share my thinking.

    I was worried that a Labour, Green, Te PM coalition would have been marginal and, once Luxon validated Winston, it could only have happened if Luxon had been unable to cobble together a coalition of three parties.

    Ironically, those 3 parties could easily have formed a coalition with the aim of demonising the left, contuing and exacerbating the past three years.

    Instead, it is the coalition of the left that will have that opportunity, with plenty of chances to diplomatically show the country they voted for a coalition that talked big but probably always knew it was going to take from middle and lower income NZ to give more to those who always had plenty and set up new entities like with infrastructure and give them borrowing rights, so they can, if not morally, then technically not borrow from the government's own balance sheet.

    All being well, the left should be able to use these 3 years to grind National and its "big hat, no cattle" electioneering into the dust, sending them to Siberia for several terms.

    If the left won this election they were destined to lose several terms after 2026. This way, they may be out of office for just 3 years, during which time NACT don't achieve much, courtesy of Winston.

    • Roy Cartland 10.1

      That’s a great way to look at it, I must admit I’d been thinking along those lines too. Could we dare to hope for a one-termer? Certainly if they try to move too fast.

      • Thinker 10.1.1

        I'm hoping Seymour and Peters will help. They're a bit like a couple who hate each other, thrown together in a marriage of convenience. There'll be plenty of bickering right there that the left will only have to summarise for the media, rather than be seen to point any fingers.

        Then, there's Luxon. He can't be rolled because he's the winner who brought Nationals win. And yet we've seen how inexperienced he can be and how he can say things that put out one fire while setting several others ablaze. And, he's got to be the referee in the endless sparring between Seymour and Peters. I wouldn't be wearing that Cheshire cat smile if I was him. I'd be shopping for some brown trousers, tout-suite.

        Couple the above with special votes that will probably make the wright's win a bit more marginal than current, and Luxon's almost satanic "give your soul to me and all this can be yours" electioneering.

        It's a recipe for disaster if the left want to take advantage of it.

        There's going to be a lot of angry voters who, being encouraged to vote for change, realise too late that the grass was greener in the paddock they left behind.

    • Anne 10.2

      Wow! That's some postulation and it makes sense. Thank-you Thinker.

      I wouldn't always be too diplomatic about it. The voters love a bit of a scrap and we have seen as much in the past few years in particular.

    • ianmac 10.3

      Well thought Thinker. Would it help if Chris stayed on as leader? I hope he does.

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  • New Zealand’s minerals future
    Introduction Today, we are sharing a red-letter occasion. A Blackball event on hallowed ground. Today  we underscore the importance of our mineral estate. A reminder that our natural resource sector has much to offer.  Such a contribution will not come to pass without investment.  However, more than money is needed. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    8 hours ago
  • Government sets out vision for minerals future
    Increasing national and regional prosperity, providing the minerals needed for new technology and the clean energy transition, and doubling the value of minerals exports are the bold aims of the Government’s vision for the minerals sector. Resources Minister Shane Jones today launched a draft strategy for the minerals sector in ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    8 hours ago
  • Government progresses Māori wards legislation
    The coalition Government’s legislation to restore the rights of communities to determine whether to introduce Māori wards has passed its first reading in Parliament, Local Government Minister Simeon Brown says. “Divisive changes introduced by the previous government denied local communities the ability to determine whether to establish Māori wards.” The ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    10 hours ago
  • First RMA amendment Bill introduced to Parliament
    The coalition Government has today introduced legislation to slash the tangle of red and green tape throttling some of New Zealand’s key sectors, including farming, mining and other primary industries. RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop says the Government is committed to  unlocking development and investment while ensuring the environment is ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    11 hours ago
  • Speech to Employers and Manufacturers Association: Relief for today, hope for tomorrow
    Kia ora, Ngā mihi nui ki a koutou kātoa Tāmaki Herenga Waka, Tāmaki Herenga tangata Ngā mihi ki ngā mana whenua o tēnei rohe Ngāti Whātua ō Ōrākei me nga iwi kātoa kua tae mai. Mauriora. Greetings everyone. Thank you to the EMA for hosting this event. Let me acknowledge ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    12 hours ago
  • Government invests in 1,500 more social homes
    The coalition Government is investing in social housing for New Zealanders who are most in need of a warm dry home, Housing Minister Chris Bishop says. Budget 2024 will allocate $140 million in new funding for 1,500 new social housing places to be provided by Community Housing Providers (CHPs), not ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • $24 million boost for Gumboot Friday
    Thousands more young New Zealanders will have better access to mental health services as the Government delivers on its commitment to fund the Gumboot Friday initiative, says Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters and Mental Health Minister Matt Doocey.  “Budget 2024 will provide $24 million over four years to contract the ...
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    2 days ago
  • Residential Tenancies Amendment Bill passes first reading
    The Coalition Government’s Residential Tenancies Amendment Bill, which will improve tenancy laws and help increase the supply of rental properties, has passed its first reading in Parliament says Housing Minister Chris Bishop. “The Bill proposes much-needed changes to the Residential Tenancies Act 1986 that will remove barriers to increasing private ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Montecassino Commemorative Address, Cassino War Cemetery
    Standing here in Cassino War Cemetery, among the graves looking up at the beautiful Abbey of Montecassino, it is hard to imagine the utter devastation left behind by the battles which ended here in May 1944. Hundreds of thousands of shells and bombs of every description left nothing but piled ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • First Reading – Repeal of Section 7AA of the Oranga Tamariki Act 1989
    I present a legislative statement on the Oranga Tamariki (Repeal of Section 7AA) Amendment Bill Mr. Speaker, I move that the Oranga Tamariki (Repeal of Section 7AA) Amendment Bill be now read a first time. I nominate the Social Services and Community Committee to consider the Bill. Thank you, Mr. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • First reading of 7AA’s repeal: progress for children
    The Bill to repeal Section 7AA of the Oranga Tamariki Act has had its first reading in Parliament today. The Bill reaffirms the Coalition Government’s commitment to the care and safety of children in care, says Minister for Children Karen Chhour.  “When I became the Minister for Children, I made ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • China Business Summit 2024
    Kia ora koutou, good morning, and zao shang hao. Thank you Fran for the opportunity to speak at the 2024 China Business Summit – it’s great to be here today. I’d also like to acknowledge: Simon Bridges - CEO of the Auckland Chamber of Commerce. His Excellency Ambassador - Wang ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Assisted depatures from New Caledonia
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters has confirmed a New Zealand Government plane will head to New Caledonia in the next hour in the first in a series of proposed flights to begin bringing New Zealanders home.    “New Zealanders in New Caledonia have faced a challenging few days - and bringing ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Assisted departures from New Caledonia
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters has confirmed a New Zealand Government plane will head to New Caledonia in the next hour in the first in a series of proposed flights to begin bringing New Zealanders home.  “New Zealanders in New Caledonia have faced a challenging few days - and bringing them ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Government to rollout roadside drug testing
    The Coalition Government will introduce legislation this year that will enable roadside drug testing as part of our commitment to improve road safety and restore law and order, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.  “Alcohol and drugs are the number one contributing factor in fatal road crashes in New Zealand. In ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Minister responds to review of Kāinga Ora
    The Government has announced a series of immediate actions in response to the independent review of Kāinga Ora – Homes and Communities, Housing Minister Chris Bishop says. “Kāinga Ora is a large and important Crown entity, with assets of $45 billion and over $2.5 billion of expenditure each year. It ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Pseudoephedrine back on shelves
    Associate Health Minister David Seymour is pleased that Pseudoephedrine can now be purchased by the general public to protect them from winter illness, after the coalition government worked swiftly to change the law and oversaw a fast approval process by Medsafe. “Pharmacies are now putting the medicines back on their ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • New Zealand-China Business Summit
    Tēnā koutou katoa. Da jia hao.  Good morning everyone.   Prime Minister Luxon, your excellency, a great friend of New Zealand and my friend Ambassador Wang, Mayor of what he tells me is the best city in New Zealand, Wayne Brown, the highly respected Fran O’Sullivan, Champion of the Auckland business ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • New measures to protect powerlines from trees
    Energy Minister Simeon Brown has announced that the Government will make it easier for lines firms to take action to remove vegetation from obstructing local powerlines. The change will ensure greater security of electricity supply in local communities, particularly during severe weather events.  “Trees or parts of trees falling on ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Wairarapa Moana ki Pouakani win top Māori dairy farming award
    Wairarapa Moana ki Pouakani were the top winners at this year’s Ahuwhenua Trophy awards recognising the best in Māori dairy farming. Māori Development Minister Tama Potaka announced the winners and congratulated runners-up, Whakatōhea Māori Trust Board, at an awards celebration also attended by Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Finance Minister ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • DJ Fred Again – Assurance report received
    "On the 27th of March, I sought assurances from the Chief Executive, Department of Internal Affairs, that the Department’s correct processes and policies had been followed in regards to a passport application which received media attention,” says Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden.  “I raised my concerns after being ...
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    6 days ago
  • District Court Judges appointed
    Attorney-General Judith Collins has announced the appointment of three new District Court Judges, to replace Judges who have recently retired. Peter James Davey of Auckland has been appointed a District Court Judge with a jury jurisdiction to be based at Whangarei. Mr Davey initially started work as a law clerk/solicitor with ...
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    7 days ago
  • Unions should put learning ahead of ideology
    Associate Education Minister David Seymour is calling on the Post Primary Teachers’ Association (PPTA) to put ideology to the side and focus on students’ learning, in reaction to the union holding paid teacher meetings across New Zealand about charter schools.     “The PPTA is disrupting schools up and down the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Craig Stobo appointed as chair of FMA
    Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly today announced the appointment of Craig Stobo as the new chair of the Financial Markets Authority (FMA). Mr Stobo takes over from Mark Todd, whose term expired at the end of April. Mr Stobo’s appointment is for a five-year term. “The FMA plays ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Budget 2024 invests in lifeguards and coastguard
    Surf Life Saving New Zealand and Coastguard New Zealand will continue to be able to keep people safe in, on, and around the water following a funding boost of $63.644 million over four years, Transport Minister Simeon Brown and Associate Transport Minister Matt Doocey say. “Heading to the beach for ...
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    7 days ago
  • New Zealand and Tuvalu reaffirm close relationship
    New Zealand and Tuvalu have reaffirmed their close relationship, Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters says.  “New Zealand is committed to working with Tuvalu on a shared vision of resilience, prosperity and security, in close concert with Australia,” says Mr Peters, who last visited Tuvalu in 2019.  “It is my pleasure ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • New Zealand calls for calm, constructive dialogue in New Caledonia
    New Zealand is gravely concerned about the situation in New Caledonia, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says.  “The escalating situation and violent protests in Nouméa are of serious concern across the Pacific Islands region,” Mr Peters says.  “The immediate priority must be for all sides to take steps to de-escalate the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • New Zealand welcomes Samoa Head of State
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon met today with Samoa’s O le Ao o le Malo, Afioga Tuimalealiifano Vaaletoa Sualauvi II, who is making a State Visit to New Zealand. “His Highness and I reflected on our two countries’ extensive community links, with Samoan–New Zealanders contributing to all areas of our national ...
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    1 week ago
  • Island Direct eligible for SuperGold Card funding
    Transport Minister Simeon Brown has announced that he has approved Waiheke Island ferry operator Island Direct to be eligible for SuperGold Card funding, paving the way for a commercial agreement to bring the operator into the scheme. “Island Direct started operating in November 2023, offering an additional option for people ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Further sanctions against Russia
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters today announced further sanctions on 28 individuals and 14 entities providing military and strategic support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  “Russia is directly supported by its military-industrial complex in its illegal aggression against Ukraine, attacking its sovereignty and territorial integrity. New Zealand condemns all entities and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • One year on from Loafers Lodge
    A year on from the tragedy at Loafers Lodge, the Government is working hard to improve building fire safety, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “I want to share my sincere condolences with the families and friends of the victims on the anniversary of the tragic fire at Loafers ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Pre-Budget speech to Auckland Business Chamber
    Ka nui te mihi kia koutou. Kia ora and good afternoon, everyone. Thank you so much for having me here in the lead up to my Government’s first Budget. Before I get started can I acknowledge: Simon Bridges – Auckland Business Chamber CEO. Steve Jurkovich – Kiwibank CEO. Kids born ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • New Zealand and Vanuatu to deepen collaboration
    New Zealand and Vanuatu will enhance collaboration on issues of mutual interest, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says.    “It is important to return to Port Vila this week with a broad, high-level political delegation which demonstrates our deep commitment to New Zealand’s relationship with Vanuatu,” Mr Peters says.    “This ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Penk travels to Peru for trade meetings
    Minister for Land Information, Chris Penk will travel to Peru this week to represent New Zealand at a meeting of trade ministers from the Asia-Pacific region on behalf of Trade Minister Todd McClay. The annual Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Ministers Responsible for Trade meeting will be held on 17-18 May ...
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    1 week ago
  • Minister attends global education conferences
    Minister of Education Erica Stanford will head to the United Kingdom this week to participate in the 22nd Conference of Commonwealth Education Ministers (CCEM) and the 2024 Education World Forum (EWF). “I am looking forward to sharing this Government’s education priorities, such as introducing a knowledge-rich curriculum, implementing an evidence-based ...
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    1 week ago
  • Education Minister thanks outgoing NZQA Chair
    Minister of Education Erica Stanford has today thanked outgoing New Zealand Qualifications Authority Chair, Hon Tracey Martin. “Tracey Martin tendered her resignation late last month in order to take up a new role,” Ms Stanford says. Ms Martin will relinquish the role of Chair on 10 May and current Deputy ...
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    1 week ago
  • Joint statement of Christopher Luxon and Emmanuel Macron: Launch of the Christchurch Call Foundation
    New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and President Emmanuel Macron of France today announced a new non-governmental organisation, the Christchurch Call Foundation, to coordinate the Christchurch Call’s work to eliminate terrorist and violent extremist content online.   This change gives effect to the outcomes of the November 2023 Call Leaders’ Summit, ...
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    1 week ago
  • Panel announced for review into disability services
    Distinguished public servant and former diplomat Sir Maarten Wevers will lead the independent review into the disability support services administered by the Ministry of Disabled People – Whaikaha. The review was announced by Disability Issues Minister Louise Upston a fortnight ago to examine what could be done to strengthen the ...
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    1 week ago
  • Minister welcomes Police gang unit
    Today’s announcement by Police Commissioner Andrew Coster of a National Gang Unit and district Gang Disruption Units will help deliver on the coalition Government’s pledge to restore law and order and crack down on criminal gangs, Police Minister Mark Mitchell says. “The National Gang Unit and Gang Disruption Units will ...
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    1 week ago
  • New Zealand expresses regret at North Korea’s aggressive rhetoric
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters has today expressed regret at North Korea’s aggressive rhetoric towards New Zealand and its international partners.  “New Zealand proudly stands with the international community in upholding the rules-based order through its monitoring and surveillance deployments, which it has been regularly doing alongside partners since 2018,” Mr ...
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    1 week ago

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