The long wait

Written By: lprent - Date published: 9:47 am, October 16th, 2023 - 57 comments
Categories: Economy, Politics - Tags: caretaker government, NACT

As it stands right now with the indecisive election result, we’re probably going to have a caretaker government for some time. The election results happen after counting the special votes locally, from other countries, and from places like Antarctica and military missions. The election results are targeted to be declared on November 3rd. The last day for the writ is on November 9th.

This usually results in a few seats shifting between parties, and often appeals for judicial recounts. In the case of this election, also a by-election in Port Waikato on November 25th with official results on December 6th caused by the death of a candidate.

My emphasis on a indecisive result is because currently the potential NAct government based on previous statements by party leaders do not currently appear to have a clear majority of seats in parliament. There are possible seat changes from specials and probable parliamentary overhangs to 122 or maybe even 123 members. That affects all coalition arrangements.

Plus of course Winston Peters of NZ First, the most likely third party for a coalition, is well known to always want to know what cards he is holding before starting any serious coalition or support negotiations. Bearing in mind the rather obvious policy variations and antipathies between National, Act, and NZ First, coalition arrangements could be quite time consuming and have been in the past.

So we’re probably in a limbo for at least a few weeks and possibly quite a lot longer. The country will be running under a caretaker government from the previous parliament while coalition arrangements are hammered out to secure a reliable parliamentary majority.

Fortunately, caretaker governments haven’t been a problem politically after the devaluation events of 1984. It is unlikely to be this time as well.

The main effect will probably be on the timing of the next sitting of parliament with any legislative changes and when a mini-budget with any changes in fiscal policy can be voted on. That would obviously require a vote of confidence in the incoming government in parliament.

57 comments on “The long wait ”

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SPC 1

16 October 2023 at 9:59 am

Enough time to win the World Cup rugby under a Labouir government for the first time since 1987 and get to 4 before the Boks.

Tea time in Paris with the girl from Herne Bay. Revenge for 1995.
- lprent 1.1
  
  16 October 2023 at 10:06 am
  
  Sport – (yawn) – who really cares…
  - SPC 1.1.1
    
    16 October 2023 at 10:13 am
    
    Yeah I know … you have a computer server and tech in the spare room, most people would have a big screen TV or full on theatre (visual and sound) set up … .
    - lprent 1.1.1.1
      
      16 October 2023 at 10:39 am
      
      Spare room? I wish we had one or two.
      
      This is the left wall of our living room in our one-bedroom Auckland apartment. We mostly work here as well as live here. I go to the workplace once a fortnight, my partner has various places she goes to write when she wants to focus.
      
      https://thestandard.org.nz/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/The-office-scaled.jpg
      
      That is 2 office desks, 6 computers, 3 computer monitors, and one large TV with a sound bar. My partner's primary training is in video so a reasonably sized screen screen and decent audio for it is a work requirement .
      
      We don't have surround sound because it penetrates even the best noise cancelling headphones. So we use a focused sound bar. I can't code with drama, doco or rom-coms wippering away in the background. It is distracting, so the audio is focused at the couch.
      
      I think that you misunderstand my point. Most sport is just entertainment for couch potatoes – as you inadvertently pointed out. It has roughly the political significance of any other mindless diversion like Shortland Street. It has virtually no economic benefits outside giving a reason for the young to develop healthy exercise habits, and is invariably just a nett drain to the country and regions that support it.
      
      I'd also argue that sport in its modern forms being mostly done to produce mindless and relatively cheap air-time for media conglomerates that is mostly useful for dumbing down the mental activities of adults as they become mindless couch-potatoes.
      
      Your point is – what? That you are a mindless lump on a couch?
      
      So as I say, (yawn)..
      
      (adding photo)
      - SPC 1.1.1.1.1
        
        16 October 2023 at 10:53 am
        
        Literature is also a product consumed, as is music, as is film, as is gaming, as is theatre, as is dance – including appreciation thereof to the couch.
        
        These are parts of the economy.
        
        Those with talent earn their way and this is part of the economy (its more than widgets), more so as automation/robots and AI kick in.
        
        Cultivating that here, so Kiwis can flourish in the world is part of our future (economic and more) success.
        
        lprent 1.1.1.1.1.1
        
        16 October 2023 at 11:45 am
        
        But how much are they economically productive parts of the economy – ones that expand the economy as a whole and thereby allow higher nett incomes throughout the economy and investments to further expand it further?
        
        t isn't so much that I mind paying for keeping mindless couch-potatoes entertained. It is more the routine presumption that I should actually be interested and even polite about their idiotic addictions. I find that to usually be pretty offensive. And after all providing bed and circuses to stop people rioting and rebelling has a long political history – look at the post-republic Rome all the way to the end of the Byzantium empire for a fine set of examples.
        
        Are they just providing subsidised employment to small communities of people that get employed by them without any nett economic benefit. Or hidden subsidies to companies that sell advertising?
        
        I really don't like unclear subsidies with little economic purpose.
        
        The subsidies to groups like low nett profit areas like farming (rural roads being the obvious example) are really expensive when you bear in mind the extremely small nett profit margins on their products. Which is why the farming lobby spends a lot of time talking about their revenues rather than their effective margins. However it does become pretty clear when you look at the tax take from the farming and processing sector. It is so low that the nett tax take appears to usually be negative.
        
        Or the subsidies to truckers where maintaining roads for the use of heavy vehicles is colossally expensive – one that their RUC payments only pays a tiny proportion of the maintenance cost of repairing their damage.
        
        Or the effective subsidies to landlords seeking capital gains via the tax treatment of their costs.
        
        Or the stupid tax subsidies that mean that every fourth vehicle on Auckland roads that I have try to see past is a Ford Ranger or a similar vehicle brought by a 'tradie' with a favourable tax break. I do wish that National would apply some of their 'free market' waffle to that economically counter-productive subsidy. It would make more sense than their economically stupid policy to slow the sizeof the second hand EV fleet in NZ.
        
        In the absence of any economic argument for the retention of these kinds of subsidies, where ultimately I am paying via my taxes and costs for someone else interests, I'd like some of these boondoggles removed.
        
        The money would be better spent on things that actually improve our greatest asset – the health physical and mental, skills and training of our population.
        
        SPC …
        
        16 October 2023 at 12:16 pm
        
        Is the making of a labour saving device part of the productive economy? Or just a way to allow people leisure time – to consume – read, listen and view and grow their humanity collective.
        
        One can be quite reductive about people moving on from subsistence economy via rewarding people who provide their talent to the urban centre/capital to enrich its Queen (beehive service to honey addiction) society. The word society is larger than the word economy …it builds, but is not, civilisation on earth itself.
        
        But, as you note, what is productive economy, is not always what it seems.
        
        SPC …
        
        16 October 2023 at 12:42 pm
        
        The money would be better spent on things that actually improve our greatest asset – the health physical and mental, skills and training of our population.
        
        Sure the foundation of both an economy and society are the people.
        
        It speaks to the issue of replacing workers who move to Oz for better wages and better chance to own their home with those who seek residency here, rather than require business to support training/apprenticeships/internships for locals as a prerequisite (and also to provide housing to migrant workers or domestic workers to move to the job locale).
        
        The facts, as per our decline in home ownership and impact on health, are like the decades old research on early years and long term outcomes, becoming known and cannot now become unknown.
        
        https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/world/2023/10/new-study-finds-shocking-link-between-renting-and-aging.html
        
        Descendant Of Smith …
        
        16 October 2023 at 2:29 pm
        
        Much of the economy is based on
        
        1. Making shit no one needs – water balloons or rubber wrist bands for example
        2. Building in deliberate obsolescence to increase turnover – iphone, printers, etc
        3. Make-work jobs such as the far too many comms people in NZ or petrol pump attendants
        4. Fake competition that gives the illusion that competition exists –
        
        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luxottica
        
        "Luxottica retails its products through stores that it owns, predominantly LensCrafters, Sunglass Hut, Pearle Vision, Target Optical, and Glasses.com. It also owns EyeMed, one of the largest vision health insurance providers. In addition to licensing prescription and non-prescription sunglasses frames for many luxury and designer brands including Chanel, Prada, Giorgio Armani, Burberry, Versace, Dolce and Gabbana, Michael Kors, Coach, Miu Miu and Tory Burch,[7] the Italian conglomerate further outright owns and manufacturers Ray-Ban, Persol, Oliver Peoples, and Oakley. Luxottica's market power has allowed it to charge price markups of up to 1000%."
        
        Still putting more people in jail will increase GDP. I mean there are whole towns in the US that depend on governments doing this.
        
        AB …
        
        16 October 2023 at 3:32 pm
        
        I think economic value is too narrow a criterion. There are other types of value that may play indirectly into economic value, but may not. What about public libraries? Most of the books people borrow don't lead them into more productive work. Currently I'm reading Judith Binney's 1968 biography of Thomas Kendall and the ill-fated early CMS mission to the Bay of Islands from about 1814-1820's. However high-minded that might seem, if I'd borrowed it from the public library, that would technically be a subsidy to economically unproductive activity.
        
        When I was young and played a sport at club and junior representative level, I think it had a social value. I got to play in and against teams that contained people that as a middle-class kid I may not have otherwise met or drunk at the pub with – farmers especially, but also tradespeople, labourers, provincial professionals like accountants, a real estate agent, a local 'tycoon' who owned a car yard. I barely watch sport now – and when I do it's only the game that I had some skill at. The result doesn't actually bother me that much, I like looking at the techniques and skills of elite players, because I have some understanding of how hard it actually is. It is the good form of envy (i.e. admiration) not the bad form (i.e. frustrated greed).
        
        Anyway – enough from me. I do think that on 'the left' we need to be generous in our perception of what value is and how it is produced.
- Obtrectator 1.2
  
  16 October 2023 at 6:58 pm
  
  Agree with L Prent. Is there no escaping the Shutduffer Cup?
Mike the Lefty 2

16 October 2023 at 10:05 am

Nicola Willis will be the one to lose as Seymour will have his greedy eyes set on Deputy PM and will Luxon show loyalty to his 2IC?
I wonder.
- SPC 2.1
  
  16 October 2023 at 10:33 am
  
  NZF might see the ACT leader as deputy PM as a slight to their role in a three way deal.
  
  Imagine Seymour as acting PM before the end of the year while Luxon was overseas …
- Janice 2.2
  
  16 October 2023 at 10:54 am
  
  Nicola could also miss out to Brooke VV in finance, as I understand BVV has a degree in economics and will no doubt be looking to use it.
  - SPC 2.2.1
    
    16 October 2023 at 10:58 am
    
    National prefers those with English literature degrees like Bill and Nicola (maybe why William English hired her as a researcher).
    
    WE did work at Treasury, which was a better nursery for understanding the reality of hard numbers than Fonterra.
    - Ghostwhowalks 2.2.1.1
      
      16 October 2023 at 1:13 pm
      
      Bill English BA from Otago was upgraded to BA Hons from Vic when he did further study while working at Treasury . Normally you would have had to get at least Masters hons to get a job there .
      
      Van Velden was a BA/ Bcom, but that could included lots of stuff . Luxon has a Bcom too but never claims any economics expertise – instead is deodorants and icecream marketing
Dennis Frank 3

16 October 2023 at 10:15 am

I did predict the moot outcome on election night once or twice but the balance I mentioned elsewhere isn't quite there nor the hung parliament so I'm waiting for the specials to see about those two.

Seymour & Luxon have agreed on tv this morning to head straight into negotiating but Luxon specified building personal relationships ahead of that. I suspect that means he'll head in with an exploring attitude to size up possibilities. Seems confident & assured about how he had done this kind of thing in the past (different contexts though).
- Ghostwhowalks 3.1
  
  16 October 2023 at 1:17 pm
  
  Bolgers approach – with a bottle of whiskey …LOL
  
  I understand the actual negotiating is done by others not the party leaders – they just pull the strings.
  
  That was a labour party advantage as they had Union leaders who knew the ropes
  
  If I was a party leader I would bring in professional negotiaters, who have done that sort of thing before. Big companies train their people to negotiate contracts, insurance, labour agreements etc
Tiger Mountain 4

16 October 2023 at 10:49 am

Heh, the provincial groundswell lot and sheep shaggers will really enjoy this hiatus…

Yet again though the “missing million” (1,060,038) have to be taken into account in this election result. There were 692,430 people enroled who didn't vote & another 367,608 who were eligible but didn't enrol; 20% of under-40s didn't enrol, while 1% of over-60s didn't enrol; 183,169 fewer voters than 2020 going by EC figures.

https://elections.nz/media-and-news/2023/election-night-results-for-the-2023-general-election/

Hope I am still here for 2026, because if Act charge on with their Tiriti attack there will likely be political movements galore ready to finally dispatch Rogernomics and Ruthanasia.
- Grey Area 4.1
  
  16 October 2023 at 7:48 pm
  
  "Hope I am still here for 2026, because if Act charge on with their Tiriti attack there will likely be political movements galore ready to finally dispatch Rogernomics and Ruthanasia."
  
  Not sure I get the connection but I hope the backlash is comprehensive. If it also sweeps away neoliberalism that will be great.
Ad 5

16 October 2023 at 10:51 am

Ardern's mini-budget was 14 December 2017, for reference of Luxon’s own promised one.

Luxon and Willis must roll out their 100 day plan and proposed mini budget by then and hopefully don't wait until December 6th for the final Port Waikato result.

There are a lot of really big government projects right in the middle of procurement at the moment, and the very last thing we need is an indecisive interregnum.

Also of course the fates of several thousands of public service workers, including the 8 Multi Employer Agreements currently in negotiation.

Luxon and Willis wanted the job, they better damn well do it fast.
- Tiger Mountain 5.1
  
  16 October 2023 at 11:07 am
  
  Lolz–Baldrick and Dracula’s daughter well exposed themselves on the campaign trail.
  This will not be a serious Govt. as many of us like to think of one.
  
  The Natzos are deadly serious though about shrinking the state, transferring more public services and infrastructure to private capital, and serious about supporting international finance capital.
  - Mr Nobody 5.1.1
    
    16 October 2023 at 11:54 am
    
    While it may not be what you or many here want it is clear that the majority of New Zealanders who voted on Saturday do want it.
    
    Personally I think it is an opportunity to ensure the right people are doing those roles in comparison to staff who are incapable of answering any questions relating to the correspondence sent out by their organisation to clients like the one I spoke to at the Winz Contact centre this morning.
    - bwaghorn 5.1.1.1
      
      16 October 2023 at 12:19 pm
      
      of New Zealanders who voted on Saturday do want it.
      
      Na most of them haven't got a deep thought process, labour dropped the ball on some stuff, national promised to not drop the ball, plus racism and a huge war chest is what happened
    - Ghostwhowalks 5.1.1.2
      
      16 October 2023 at 1:05 pm
      
      "is clear that the majority of New Zealanders who voted on Saturday do want it."
      
      Have you seen the tiny % for ALL the minows combined – most of who were spawned out of/ morphed into the covid protest movement
      
      https://www.newsroom.co.nz/fringe-parties-struggle-to-raise-a-crowd
      
      The fringe parties' totals were part of a grand total of 5.97 percent of the vote on election night – thats including TOP at 2.0% and Cannabis Party at 0.4%
      
      Gunns NZ Loyal was 1.15%, more than all the other covid nutters together
      
      Freedoms NZ (7031), Democracy NZ led by former National MP Matt King (5544), New Conservatives (3587), the Leighton Baker Party (1814) and New Nation (1288)
      
      Nobody , your untruths are showing
      - Mr Nobody 5.1.1.2.1
        
        16 October 2023 at 3:47 pm
        
        The Majority of Voters (currently made up of National, Act and NZ First), have a diverse range of opinions and NZ First has absorbed a number of supporters from the Wellington protests.
        
        As the Media and Left Wing parties pointed out through out their campaign that this make up of parties was likely it is equally fair to say that the majority of voters do support it as the possible cost of forming a government.
        
        You may feel otherwise but that is the truth no matter how much you may wish it wasn't and to insinuate I am lying merely reflects your in ability to deal with facts and reality.
        
        Ghostwhowalks 5.1.1.2.1.1
        
        16 October 2023 at 4:45 pm
        
        So its your opinion , but not based on the numbers of votes
        
        Maybe the 6% of NZF want a Covid enquiry , who knows ?
        
        but thats still leaves the 2-3% of covid obsessed voters for those partys who made their highlight – they dont have any say as they are under 5% and are counted again
        
        Mr Nobody …
        
        16 October 2023 at 5:09 pm
        
        Ahhhhh Ghost, I could waste my time trying to make you understand reality and truth or enjoy the last of the afternoon sun and take my dogs for a walk along the beach.
        
        Have a nice evening.
        
        Barfly …
        
        16 October 2023 at 6:37 pm
        
        "…waste my time trying to make you understand reality and truth.."
        
        Arrogant clown.
        
        bwaghorn …
        
        16 October 2023 at 9:48 pm
        
        I reckon I could beat Mike Tyson in a fight as long as I don't actually turn up ill never be proved wrong, says Mr nobody
observer 6

16 October 2023 at 11:07 am

There's a lot of talk about getting a deal done, but if Luxon has any sense (?) he – or his more experienced advisers – will realize that what matters is the longer-term consequences of those agreements, not whether they were signed in Nov or Dec.

If he thinks he can solve a problem by agreeing to Winston's Covid inquiry, he's a fool. He'll only be creating a much bigger problem instead. If the inquiry says "Jacinda Ardern was not actually a murderer" then the frothing fringe will call it a whitewash.

I'm not sure that commentators have yet grasped what the new NZF voter base wants. It ain't Foreign Minister and handouts for horse racing.
- Mr Nobody 6.1
  
  16 October 2023 at 12:00 pm
  
  As we have seen iver the last 6 years the result from any enquiry is largely able to be directed by what questions/areas they put forward to be answered and who is tasked to lead it.
  
  If the Government wanted to for example to have an enquiry with a predetermined outcome of indictments in line with the Nuremberg V2 requirements it would would be easier to arrange than a victory party for Chippy. Then it would be just as easy to point the failure of prosecutions as a failure of "the corrupt and leftist Judges" of the judiciary which clearly requiring "restruturing" to ensure justice is being served for New Zealand.
- tsmithfield 6.2
  
  16 October 2023 at 12:01 pm
  
  I think an inquiry into the Covid response is probably a sensible thing. Not so much from sheeting blame to Jacinda or anyone. But from the perspective of learning how things can be done better next time something like this crops up.
  - Ad 6.2.1
    
    16 October 2023 at 12:18 pm
    
    +100
  - Mr Nobody 6.2.2
    
    16 October 2023 at 12:19 pm
    
    Completely agree. Finger pointing and playing the blame game is a IMHO a waste of energy.
    
    However unless we look at the crisis fully, completely and publicly then if/when the next pandemic occurs the nation will be ill prepared to face the same challenges again.
    - observer 6.2.2.1
      
      16 October 2023 at 12:58 pm
      
      unless we look at the crisis fully, completely and publicly then if/when the next pandemic occurs the nation will be ill prepared to face the same challenges again.
      
      In case you've forgotten –
      
      A Royal Commission is already happening. It was announced by Ardern.
      
      Royal Commission of Inquiry into Covid-19 pandemic response: What you need to know | RNZ News
      
      The chances of that Inquiry being accepted by the ACT/NZF fringe are zero. Because it was announced by Ardern.
  - observer 6.2.3
    
    16 October 2023 at 12:49 pm
    
    That may be what you think an inquiry should be. The kind of sensible, objective, non-partisan review that any organisation would do in our usual work environment: what was done well, what can be done better, etc. Fine.
    
    But it certainly isn't what the protesters at Parliament want, the ones who Winston has been pandering to, and got him over 5%. They already held a "trial", they know their verdict, and have not the slightest interest in being told anything else.
    
    Luxon has no political reason to pander to them. He'll be judged by National voters and swing voters on cost of living, crime, health, etc.
    
    He would be crazy to derail his own agenda.
    - Mr Nobody 6.2.3.1
      
      16 October 2023 at 1:02 pm
      
      Luxon has plenty of reason to agree to an enquiry.
      
      1/It enables NZ First to gain a win and virtually zero political cost to him as he can just write it off as a part of the price of coalition, the will of the voters etc etc.
      
      2/It will enable continual attacks on Labour in addition to providing on going reminders to all the voter of the impact of the lockdowns which are now viewed by the majority of the population as wrong/over reactions.
      
      3/If shaped the right way can be used to add justifiction for changes to the judiciary, law and order, health, education etc
      
      4/And worse caee might actually turn up something useful which can be sold as another win by the government.
      - observer 6.2.3.1.1
        
        16 October 2023 at 1:03 pm
        
        You're saying the new PM should scrap the Royal Commission that his party called for and he supports?
        
        Wow.
        
        Mr Nobody 6.2.3.1.1.1
        
        16 October 2023 at 1:44 pm
        
        Or simply expand/redefine the terms of reference which they can easily justify by arguing "The previous government failed to ensure the Covid crisis was going to be properly investigated and to ensure that it is as well as to ensure the valid concerns raised by our coalition partners we are expanding it to include……"
        
        "Furthermore due to this expanded remit we will feel that the current inquiry personnel lack the required skill set and thank them for their work so far which will be continued by……."
        
        Anything is possible if it is wanted and 95% of the population have shut off from politics for the next 2.5 years.
        
        observer …
        
        16 October 2023 at 1:56 pm
        
        the current inquiry personnel lack the required skill set
        
        Ha ha ha, you are more clueless with every post.
        
        John key's protege Luxon is going to slag off John Key's Minister Hekia Parata?
        
        To be replaced by … Winston Peters' brother? That bloke from the pub who liked something on Facebook?
        
        Headline: "Shane Reti, who previously welcomed the Royal Commission, today had to defend his National party friend and colleague and said that Mr Luxon misspoke … "
        
        Look, I don't have much respect for Luxon but even I don't think he wants to press the self-destruct button so soon.
        
        Maybe you should just be honest and admit that you didn't know there was a Royal Commission, didn't know who was on it and didn't know Luxon supported it.
        
        Mr Nobody …
        
        16 October 2023 at 2:24 pm
        
        Im more than willing to admit that:
        
        Yes knew there already a Commision.
        
        No didn't know who was leading (because frankly I don't care as they are largely irrelevant especially if you want a pre-determined result vs an honest review. All you need is a compliency).
        
        My comment was simply pointing out if the government wants to change the person leading it they can. It's just a matter of phrasing it, however seeing the current person has National links perhaps that wouldn't be needed to get the result "needed".
        
        Personally I have reached the point that I believe politicians (of all sides) are more focused on obtaining and maintaining power than actually improving this country and its citizens. As such they treat you and I the voter as things needing to be manipulated and controlled vs actually improving the country and society.
    - newsense 6.2.3.2
      
      16 October 2023 at 11:14 pm
      
      It would be a David Cameron type move and exactly why this bunch is dangerous. Luxon won’t have the same chance to zig zag around as he did on the campaign trail.
- Ad 6.3
  
  16 October 2023 at 12:25 pm
  
  We don't need to worry about what the imaginary NZFirst voter wants anymore.
  
  I'm just looking forward to Winston's game over the next 8 weeks.
  - Mr Nobody 6.3.1
    
    16 October 2023 at 1:06 pm
    
    Are you not thinking about 2026 yet?
    - Ad 6.3.1.1
      
      16 October 2023 at 3:06 pm
      
      Winston has an agenda inscrutable even to his own caucus. Let alone his voters.
      - Mr Nobody 6.3.1.1.1
        
        16 October 2023 at 3:54 pm
        
        Yep, as does every other politician and their party.
        
        Non NZ First supporters (of which just for the record I am NOT one) have regularly used the attack line "Winston First" as if the same does not apply to their own political party/favorite politician.
        
        As I see it, they're all as bad as each other and see politics as simply an avenue for their own advancement and enrichment.
        
        Ad 6.3.1.1.1.1
        
        16 October 2023 at 4:39 pm
        
        It's an uneven link.
        
        The 2017 NZF+Labour coalition agreement was pretty rock solidly based on the campaign promises.
        
        The 1999 and 2002 Labour first budgets rolled out their pledge card promises clearly from the campaign.
        
        The National 2008 campaign promise on selling 49% of specific Crown companies was done in short order.
        
        The 2020 Labour one frankly had very little in it to promise, nor did National's from 2014.
        
        All indications are that National is indeed preparing to deliver on its tax package no matter if ACT or NZF question it. We can but wait and see for a couple of months.
        
        lprent …
        
        17 October 2023 at 9:58 am
        
        All indications are that National is indeed preparing to deliver on its tax package no matter if ACT or NZF question it. We can but wait and see for a couple of months.
        
        But that will be a confidence vote. It means that gaining support for it will have to be obtained from NZF and Act in coalition agreements – making them complicit in any of the decisions to allow those cuts to be funded.
        
        It is also going to be fascinating to see what Treasury has to say about it. Clearly the suggested sources (apart from plundering the ETS fund to put into the general fund – and that will probably be subject to court battles) are unlikely to pass the Treasury scrutiny.
        
        BTW: It is quite clear from the Castalia report that they didn’t test the funding side. What they said was essentially ‘that given the assumptions handed to us by Nicola Willis and her team, the numbers add up’. So don’t claim that as proof of feasibility because it simply is not.
        
        Castalia simply didn’t look at the assumptions of how the tax cuts would be funded. It was a particularly elegant way for National to lie over ‘costed’ policy. But I suspect that here in the future it will simply cement a reputation for Castalia of being the consultants that you go to when you want to add a sheen of respectability over a economic scam.
        
        Treasury will and will have to provide some estimates on being able to obtain the revenue to fund them, and that will be published and any advice will be subject to OIA. Then it gets interesting.
        
        I must read up on the ETS legislation about the usage of funds. It seems hard to see how how a tax based fund created for such a specific purpose can be plundered in such an obvious manner for purposes so far from its purpose.
tsmithfield 7

16 October 2023 at 11:37 am

I don't think there is any chance that NZ First gets ejected on the specials:

https://elections.nz/media-and-news/2023/election-night-results-for-the-2023-general-election/

NZ First got 6.46% of 2234380 votes counted. That equates to approximately 1440000 votes. Allowing for 500000 specials, which is the number I have heard thrown around, and assuming that NZ First got 0 of those, they would be 144000/2734380*100 = 5.26% of the vote.

Hence, even in the worst case scenario, NZ First is still in power.
Kat 8

16 October 2023 at 12:38 pm

Winston is correct in mentioning the "numbers" and asking for the "maths"…………

Hardly a majority result in any one direction in terms of what voters want……..so far

Preliminary results of votes on election night:
Left bloc Labour – 602,816 Right bloc National – 875,234
Greens – 241,977 Act – 202,077
TPM – 58,393
Left 903,186 Right 1,077.311
```
                    Centre bloc NZF - 145,084
```
Minor Parties Total – 118,799

Specials to be counted – 567,000 (approx)

https://elections.nz/media-and-news/2023/election-night-results-for-the-2023-general-election/
Corey 9

16 October 2023 at 4:37 pm

After the specials and by-election it's pretty much certain national and act will be on 59-61 in a 122 to 123 seat parliament meaning we're getting a minority govt.

In that scenario Winston, who having returned from the dead, again, might actually want to sit on the cross benches rather than go straight back into another coalition (this time with people he is economically ideologically opposed to and personally despises)

That way he gets the best of both worlds, he gets to be in his favorite place (opposition) but with extreme power, because if either block wants to pass a law they need to kiss the ring and go through him.

I don't see any benefit of a coalition or c/s deal for nzf for 2026 but sitting on the crossbenches and not voting the govt down makes him incredibly powerful and he gets to sit in parliament and shout insults at everyone while claiming to be the handbrake.
Thinker 10

16 October 2023 at 5:03 pm
1. I, too, predicted this kind of outcome, although it's hardly something to brag about – the scuttlebutt reflected it.
2. As said in a previous comment, however, unlike most Standardistas, I'm fairly OK with it. Perhaps now that hopes of a Labour win have been dashed, others might share my thinking.

I was worried that a Labour, Green, Te PM coalition would have been marginal and, once Luxon validated Winston, it could only have happened if Luxon had been unable to cobble together a coalition of three parties.

Ironically, those 3 parties could easily have formed a coalition with the aim of demonising the left, contuing and exacerbating the past three years.

Instead, it is the coalition of the left that will have that opportunity, with plenty of chances to diplomatically show the country they voted for a coalition that talked big but probably always knew it was going to take from middle and lower income NZ to give more to those who always had plenty and set up new entities like with infrastructure and give them borrowing rights, so they can, if not morally, then technically not borrow from the government's own balance sheet.

All being well, the left should be able to use these 3 years to grind National and its "big hat, no cattle" electioneering into the dust, sending them to Siberia for several terms.

If the left won this election they were destined to lose several terms after 2026. This way, they may be out of office for just 3 years, during which time NACT don't achieve much, courtesy of Winston.
- Roy Cartland 10.1
  
  16 October 2023 at 10:05 pm
  
  That’s a great way to look at it, I must admit I’d been thinking along those lines too. Could we dare to hope for a one-termer? Certainly if they try to move too fast.
  - Thinker 10.1.1
    
    17 October 2023 at 7:29 am
    
    I'm hoping Seymour and Peters will help. They're a bit like a couple who hate each other, thrown together in a marriage of convenience. There'll be plenty of bickering right there that the left will only have to summarise for the media, rather than be seen to point any fingers.
    
    Then, there's Luxon. He can't be rolled because he's the winner who brought Nationals win. And yet we've seen how inexperienced he can be and how he can say things that put out one fire while setting several others ablaze. And, he's got to be the referee in the endless sparring between Seymour and Peters. I wouldn't be wearing that Cheshire cat smile if I was him. I'd be shopping for some brown trousers, tout-suite.
    
    Couple the above with special votes that will probably make the wright's win a bit more marginal than current, and Luxon's almost satanic "give your soul to me and all this can be yours" electioneering.
    
    It's a recipe for disaster if the left want to take advantage of it.
    
    There's going to be a lot of angry voters who, being encouraged to vote for change, realise too late that the grass was greener in the paddock they left behind.
- Anne 10.2
  
  16 October 2023 at 10:37 pm
  
  Wow! That's some postulation and it makes sense. Thank-you Thinker.
  
  I wouldn't always be too diplomatic about it. The voters love a bit of a scrap and we have seen as much in the past few years in particular.
- ianmac 10.3
  
  17 October 2023 at 8:31 am
  
  Well thought Thinker. Would it help if Chris stayed on as leader? I hope he does.