The Mt Albert By election

Written By: - Date published: 8:00 am, February 25th, 2017 - 80 comments
Categories: by-election, greens, labour - Tags: , , ,

It is election day today in Mt Albert for the successor to David Shearer.

Comments are open.

Update:

80 comments on “The Mt Albert By election”

  1. mickysavage 1

    Results are at http://electionresults.govt.nz/by2017/

    Looks like early voting has gone Arden’s way and I think it is probably all over sorry Green whanau.

    • Sabine 1.1

      Well done both Parties.

      • mickysavage 1.1.1

        I think Genter is a phenomenally good MP.

        • Sabine 1.1.1.1

          Yes, to an extend we can not loose. Both are good MPs. I am looking forward to the break down of the results.

          This is good to see, Auckland needs MP’s that care about the City and its people.

          • Muttonbird 1.1.1.1.1

            Auckland needs MP’s that care about the City and its people.

            By not standing a candidate National admitted they don’t have anyone who meets this criteria.

        • John 1.1.1.2

          Yes. I think Julie would make a fantastic minister of transport in the next Govt.

        • AB 1.1.1.3

          Yes – she’s great. Love to see her as Transport Minister.

  2. Andre 2

    I tried picking this fight before, and didn’t get any real takers, so I’ll try again:

    Some commenters here strongly assert there’s a massive rejection of liberalism in the electorate, and suggest Labour needs to also reject liberalism as the path to electoral success.

    Here we have a by election where there is no reason whatsoever for anyone to compromise their vote. There’s no need to swallow any dead rats to vote for a lesser evil to keep the greater evil out. So we should see the true level of support for non-liberal socialist policies expressed in the vote count for Joe Carolan or possibly TOP.

    But Ardern is really quite liberal, and the early vote counts look very strong for her. So if the electorate rejects liberalism, where’s the evidence?

    • Carolyn_nth 2.1

      Gee, I wouldn’t say TOP is anywhere near being socialist.

      Joe Carolan behind TOP and only a few votes ahead of Penny Bright.

      • Andre 2.1.1

        Yeah, I could have worded it better. TOP isn’t very socialist, but some of their policies also seem quite non-liberal.

        • Carolyn_nth 2.1.1.1

          What do you mean by liberal?

          • Andre 2.1.1.1.1

            The wikipedia definition which includes “support ideas and programmes such as freedom of speech, freedom of the press, freedom of religion, free markets, civil rights, democratic societies, secular governments, gender equality, and international cooperation.” works pretty well for me.

            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberalism

            Although personally I would add some caveats around the government having a strong role in regulating markets, particularly where there are power or information imbalances between buyers and sellers, and a strong government role in setting the boundaries where one persons rights end and another person’s rights begin.

            • Carolyn_nth 2.1.1.1.1.1

              Some of those things could apply to socialism: i.e. democratic societies, international co-operation, freedom of the press and speech, gender equality, etc.

              But socialism puts more of a focus on collaborative approaches, and systems that enable all sections of society (all demographic groups) to achieve social and economic justice.

              While, IMO, liberalism puts more focus on individual rights, and individual actions within a meritocratic system.

    • Ad 2.2

      If Ardern had lost the seat like Corbin just lost the safe Copeland seat, some questions would have been asked.

      Instead it sends another Mt Roskill-type signal that the Labour team can win Auckland electoral seats back with charismatic and consistent candidates, and a concentrated ground effort.

      Awesome display of political chivalry and grace that bodes well for Ohariu, Wellington Central, and many more. Looks like a coalition government already.

    • AB 2.3

      I think your argument overlooks the power of name recognition and tribal loyalty to parties. It assumes a perfectly rational, self-maximising voter who does all the research needed to understand the policies of every candidate and votes accordingly. The world isn’t like that.
      A better test of your theory would be to see if the vote of a well-recognised party went up or down if they publicly repudiated what you call ‘liberal’ policies.

      • Andre 2.3.1

        The closest I can think of is the Greens moving towards more mainstream liberalism starting in 2008, which correlates well with an increase in their vote.

    • But Ardern is really quite liberal, and the early vote counts look very strong for her. So if the electorate rejects liberalism, where’s the evidence?

      Her getting six times the vote of her nearest rival looks like a motherfucker of an endorsement of liberalism to me. If the electorate’s actually crying out for the kind of socialism that Joe Carolan represented, it’s doing an awesome job of pretending otherwise.

  3. Tanz 3

    It’s a boring, three horse race, a foregone conclusion, and National haven’t even bothered putting up a candidate. Means nothing, changes nothing, and National are still likely to win this year, with Kingmaker, Winson. Yawn…

    • Anne 3.1

      Little tory tanz is upset folks. Sad. 🙁

    • Bearded Git 3.2

      National daren’t put up candidate.

      Jacinda has almost won with only 57% counted. Well done the Greens though.

      • DoublePlusGood 3.2.1

        Why well done the Greens? Their candidate is an excellent candidate, there are over 8000 party vote Green voters in the electorate, plenty enough to put the wind up Jacinda Ardern, but only 1500 bothered voting for Genter.

        I mean, yes, you can’t read too much into a turnout that’s somewhere around 25%, but the Greens aren’t far behind Labour’s party vote in this electorate, and their candidate could have been expecting to do better.

        Also, I note that if National’s 14000 party voters had thought about things, they could have voted for the TOP candidate, which would have caused complete chaos on the left.

    • ScottGN 3.3

      What 3 horse race? It’s a 1 horse race. And National standing a candidate wouldn’t have made any difference.

  4. Tanz 4

    Winston, I meant. Wnsome Winston.

  5. Tanz 5

    Not at all, I just think it’s a boring and predictable race. Tory Tanz, ha ha.

  6. lprent 6

    I’d turn up for the Arden victory party. However after weeks of barely seeing her Lyn because of work, I got dragged off to socialise at the pride parade up the road.

    Looks like a good result. Close to 20k voted if I read the election results correctly.

    What was the roskill election?

    • Carolyn_nth 6.1

      TV1 News reported Ardern is at the Pride Parade.

      Andrea Vance reckons turn out looks about the same as Mt Roskill.

    • Tanz 6.2

      You make it sound like a drag, the Pride Parade.

      • lprent 6.2.1

        I am quite antisocial at the best of times. Standing around waiting for a parade to arrive at this end of the road…

        Just think of the sacrifice. All of that keyboard time discarded!

    • lprent 6.3

      Ah. The parade arrived..

    • Carolyn_nth 6.4

      Mt Roskill by election results

      17,755 votes cast.

      Voter turnout for the 2016 Mt Roskill by-election was 38.5% of the 46,159 people enrolled.

      Preliminary result for Mt Albert:

      9,801 votes counted = 78.6% of the votes cast.

      Now: 10,319 at 85.7%

      • Anne 6.4.1

        That looks like something in the order of a 5 to 6000 vote count less than Mt Roskill. Parmjeet Palmer’s vote was around 5000 so there’s the probable reason…

    • Poission 6.5

      Looks like the turnout was low around 12000 vs 17500 mt roskill,

      Adern looks like getting around 50% of shearers vote.

      • Muttonbird 6.5.1

        Not quite. Ardern got 77% of the vote today, while Shearer got 63% in 2009 and 58% in 2014.

        Ardern > Shearer.

  7. Sanctuary 7

    It is a rout. Ardern is knocking on the door of a 9,000 vote majority.

    • lprent 7.1

      What is the bet that the political media frame it in terms of winners and losers?

      They really only seem to be able to.play any political story one way.

      • Anne 7.1.1

        That’s because they don’t like thinking… too hard on the brain.

        Edit: god I’ve done it again. Forgot to hit reply. fixed. 😈

      • Sanctuary 7.1.2

        TOP is a huge loser, exposed as a creation of hot air and wishful thinking. the Greens will be smarting, they should never have run a candidate knowing they have no real on the ground party organisation, which is crucial to getting out the vote on a sunny summer Saturday with lots to do. Now they’ve been crushed and it will be easy to paint them as drifting and making bad decisions.

        • weka 7.1.2.1

          Genter just got 11.5% of the vote. Presumably the serious left wing vote if we look at the low turnout and guess that National voters didn’t bother. I’m sure Genter is disappointed but from the Greens’ perspective I’m guessing it’s all about the party vote for Sept.

          TOP got 4.5% of the same serious left wing vote.

          I think comparisons are hard because there are too many variables differing from the general election or even other by-elections.

          • Keith 7.1.2.1.1

            TOP would support National according to their candidate and I do not think for a single second that a man so convinced of his own divinity like Morgan would want a bar of a left government.

            He has some promising sounding ideas but I would not trust another millionaire after this National governments lot!

            • weka 7.1.2.1.1.1

              Yeah I saw that from the candidate (will probably put something up as a post at some point). Unfortunately some lefties are finding his ideas attractive. Which they are, but that’s not a good enough reason to vote them at the GE.

            • lprent 7.1.2.1.1.2

              Not to mention Dotcom (Internet party), Gibbs (later versions of Act) and Bob Jones (NZ Party). Key was politically effective but managed to do nothing much at a structural level over 8 years.

              Basically millionaires are useless at NZ politics.

        • lprent 7.1.2.2

          Before going to work to kill a nasty code problem, I was phone canvassing for a few hours early in the day. The canvassing was targeted (including to my amusement, the softer National voters), but it didn’t look like many people had forgotten. By midday when I left, most people had either voted or were on their way or their phones were unanswered indicating they were out.

  8. weka 8

    Can anyone find the 2014 election results? I don’t know why the electoral commission feels the need to monkey wrench their website each time there is an election or by-election.

  9. Carolyn_nth 9

    TV1 says Genter has conceded and congratulated Ardern.

  10. weka 10

    Anyone know what the turnout average is for a by-election?

    • weka 10.1

      Mt Roskill looks about 50% of the 2014 GE vote.

      Northland was around 82%

      Mt Albert today looks about 33%

      The Mt Albert by-election in 2009 had an 82% turnout of the Mt Albert vote in the 2008 general election.

    • lprent 10.2

      As a rule of thumb, usually between half and two thirds of the previous general election vote assuming no boundary shifts.

      However it is more consistent when you look at by-elections compared to total adults able to vote (can’t be bothered digging out all of those numbers for the relevant years). The number of voters in an electorate seems to remain the same. The Maori electorate by-elections are usually high because of this.

      And it depends on how much interest the major parties show.

      Mt Albert 2017 36,052 cf 12,971 = 36.0% National didn’t stand a candidate
      Mt Roskill 2016 33,392 cf 17,476 = 52.3%
      Northland 2015 35,056 cf 29,590 = 84.4% 🙂 the exception – The previous candidate issue + Winston
      ChCh East 2013 28,524 cf 13,726 = 48.1%
      Ikaroa-Rāwhiti 2013 18,319 cf 11,268 = 61.5%
      Te Tai Tokerau 2011 19,930 cf 12,339 = 61.9%
      Botany 2011 31,305 cf 15,421 = 48.3%
      Mana 2010 34,333 cf 23,314 = 67.9%
      Mt Albert 2009 34,407 cf 20,943 = 60.9%

      • Anne 10.2.1

        When you look at the percentages, Mt Albert (2017) is much lower than the other results. But of course it was the only one without a Nat candidate so that is the reason for the difference. As predicted, most Nat voters simply stayed at home.

        What’s the bet the Nats (and sections of the media) try to spin that difference as a ‘fail’ for Labour.

        • lprent 10.2.1.1

          Bugger lost my reply.

          If you look at the by-election turnout against people who could vote if they wanted to be on the roll, the by-election turnouts are different. Most electorates range from 20%-30% of total potential voting population during a by-election. Mt Roskill was 27%, ChCh East was something like 25%, Mt Albert in 2017 was ~23%. Ikaroa-Rāwhiti was about 22% etc.

          The more contested results like Northland get up to > 50%. But I can’t say that I have ever seen a by-election like that before.

          Basically voting in NZ happens in THREE decisions. First to go on the roll. Second to vote. Third who to vote for.

          Electorates like Mt Albert or Epsom have high enrollment and high turnouts. Electorates like Botany have poor enrollments and poor turnouts – usually favouring the better off. Electorates like Ikaroa-Rāwhiti have terrible enrollments and bad turnouts.

          If you look at turnouts against the total eligible voters you get a better idea of the turnout against the relatively invariant population sizes that cause the layout of the electorates.

  11. swordfish 11

    Wow !!!

    Looks like Jacinda – backed up by Labour’s legendary Auckland By-Election machine – has managed to mobilise not only the core vote but also a huge slice of erstwhile Greens and – dare I say it – more than a smattering of Nats as well.

    And they’ve done it with a ruthless efficiency that I’d say almost rivals that of Franz Beckenbauer’s West German midfield in the 1974 World Cup final.

    Congrats to Ms J

  12. swordfish 12

    Unsurprisingly low turnout, mind.

    • lprent 12.1

      Yeah. Looks like there was a large preview vote added at the start.

      Edit: Apparently the pre-election day vote was over 3000.

  13. Muttonbird 13

    Crushing defeat for National 🙂

  14. swordfish 14

    Mt Albert 2017 By-Election ………… Mt Albert 2014 Party-Vote

    ARDERN, Jacinda LAB … 10000 …………… 10823

    GENTER, Julie Anne GP … 1489 …………… 8005

    Nats – No Show ……………… 0 ………………14359

  15. Sacha 15

    Congrats to Vin Tomar, Joe Carolan and Penny Bright who attracted 3 figure support

    Not easy getting 100 people to vote for you.

  16. Michael 16

    I’m not sure whether any useful lessons can be drawn from this, other than Labour’s campaign machinery got a workout before the main event in September and seemed to cope OK – without any opposition though. Looking ahead, is Labour going to offer any progressive policies to voters, or will it just point and shriek “Wicked Tories” every time the Nats show their faces? To be fair, the Nats are wicked and Labour might get some votes if it sticks to this “strategy” but I really think people are hoping for something slightly better from it this time.

  17. saveNZ 17

    Labour needed to storm home and did.

    I’d like to see Julie Anne Genter as minister for transport in the next government – BUT I am fearful of the Greens losing votes by having too many social issues as it’s focus and not enough environmental ones. The environment needs an advocate in a party and the Green party used to be it.

    What united many Aucklanders over environmental issues was the Kauri tree and ports of Auckland stealing the Harbour. I think Green party need to have a much stronger environmental focus.

    Aucklanders are sick of being pushed around by policy experts. We have had the Super City forced on us, we had the unitary plan forced on us, we have had the brunt of the National immigration thrust upon us, we have had the COO’s stealing our harbour, Auckland Transport workers stealing money and being found guilty in court of corruption, we have had 1 billion dollars in rates money being wasted on failed IT for the Supercity.

    At the beginning Aucklanders tried to fight against it all, but now many people are fatigued, and wearing people out and stopping them fighting is part of National’s plan. Many have left Auckland, or at least demoralised by what is going on.

    The Kauri tree, ring barked. Environment and democracy lost.
    Ports of Auckland are still building into the harbour. Environment and democracy lost.
    Super City, environment and democracy lost.
    Unitary plan, environment and democracy lost.
    I think we have even lost council representation on the Auckland Transport board. Environment and democracy lost.

    So I think if Greens go in with social policy rather than environmental ones they may lose instead of gaining votes.

    11.5% without National running a candidate is not strong for Greens with apparently one of their best MP’s.

    Trains and insulation is not a “story” or a “vision” for a strong environmental future in NZ.

  18. HDCAFriendlyTroll 18

    Congrats to all you Labourites who think what’s between your legs is more important than ability. 🙂

  19. HDCAFriendlyTroll 19

    Quite. If the Labour Party was a company board of directors the company would have gone into liquidation a long time ago with debts in the billions.

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