The RNZ-Reid Research poll

Written By: - Date published: 9:13 am, April 1st, 2025 - 33 comments
Categories: Media, polls - Tags:

Full coverage at RadioNZ.

From RNZ:

RNZ-Reid Research poll: Coalition in front as Labour gains ground

The new RNZ-Reid Research Poll shows the political race has tightened since the election, but the coalition parties are still clinging on to a slim lead.

If replicated in a general election, the result would return National, ACT and NZ First to power with 62 seats out of 120, down from their existing 67 of 123.

It is the first public poll since early February to put the centre-right bloc ahead of the centre-left opposition parties.

33 comments on “The RNZ-Reid Research poll ”

  1. tc 1

    Good to see, long overdue given the volume of polls the penguins manufactured over the years for his handlers.

    TPM and Greens should improve with some focus and will someone please put RE-nationalising our power system on the table.

    Easily defendable from 'the sky is falling' reaction the usual suspects will scream about and a vote winner IMO

    • Matthew Hooton 1.1

      Recent polls by David Farrar’s Curia have been more favourable for the left than these two. See https://www.taxpayers.org.nz/march25_nztupollsuhg

      • Phillip ure 1.1.1

        Farrar would not distort/fudge the findings from his polling ..

        ..for the simple reason it would make his polling business not fit for purpose..

        • mpledger 1.1.1.1

          There are two things going on. I would assume his non-political polls would be squeaky clean as he can afford to make them to keep his business going. His polls for political purposes are probably doing the most to help his political goals. There is a reason why Key slobbered all over him the night Key won the election.

          I've been rung up more two or three times but I declined after the first time. Mostly because I didn't believe my data would be safe from exploitation and secondly because the interviewer made comments about my responses so I didn't consider them professional.

  2. gsays 2

    This poll is good timing as it gives a baseline as to where The Greens are at before the latest bruhaha.

  3. Kay 3

    Who are these 43.5% who think the country is going in the right direction? frown

    • weka 3.1

      People grateful they don't live in the US? People who own property because the mortgage interest rates have dropped? (not sure if that was within the polling period). Aucklanders whose property prices are increasing?

    • dv 3.2

      Interesting that 43% is 6% less than Col support.

    • Incognito 3.3

      Not really thinking but a perception and more of a feeling and vibe – think of it as the share price on the share market that doesn’t necessarily reflect real value and hard data. The polled people only have to answer the question and not explain their reasoning. I think the number is pretty meaningless itself but the trend is more interesting.

      • Belladonna 3.3.1

        I agree. Any individual poll is just a data point (and may be 'right' or 'wrong' – all polling companies have rogue polls now and again). There is no point in getting excited because a party has gone up or down 1% – which is within the margin of error in any case.

        What is interesting are the longer term (over 3 months or longer) trends. The first and third graphs in the below link.

        And that's showing the trend for both National and the government is down.

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_New_Zealand_general_election

  4. Darien Fenton 4

    I thought the poll was quite good for the "left bloc", apart from the Greens, who drop three seats. But Labour gains 6 and National loses 7. Labour is now well back into the 30's and only 0.6% behind National. The preferred PM thing was interesting too. I can never recollect a sitting PM with such low favourability ratings and Chippy is right on Luxo's heels. I wouldn't underestimate how edgy those 7 MPs in National will be feeling. Greens will pick up and after all the shite of the last two weeks, the drop is understandable. What concerns me most is that NZ First and ACT would pick up an extra seat each and I think wtf? I am pleased to see Chippy picked up the phone to Marama over the weekend and had a solidarity chat. The most important thing we meed to learn on the Left is under MMP we need a majority and left parties eating each other's lunch will not deliver that. We need, like it or not, to find other people to vote for us. I would say the first target has to be NZ First.

    • Stephen D 4.1

      Well said, Darien. What will be really interesting is who Winston will attack hardest when he's no longer DPM. Will he go after ACT or National voters? Or given Winnie, think there are votes to be had on the centre left?

      NZI has always been leftish on economic matters. But right, and getting hard right on social issues.

      The easy votes for him are probably soft National on economic policy, and right on social matters from ACT.

    • Obtrectator 4.2

      Greens will pick up and after all the shite of the last two weeks, the drop is understandable.

      I wouldn't bank on that. There's gonna be plenty more "shite" flung at them yet. Made up if necessary. TPM looking vulnerable too right now.

      • weka 4.2.1

        a drop in the next poll because of the last few days wouldn't surprise me but I guess it depends on how long until another poll.

        Always the trend.

      • Bearded Git 4.2.2

        TPM are polling well at 5%-they got 3.1% at the election. Remember they don't need to get to 5% because they are almost certain to win electorate seats.

  5. Ad 5

    Shoutout to RNZ for this series.

    Wake up Greens you're on a consistent trend down. If you don't improve then obviously in 2026 it's a 2017 scenario but Winston gets permanent Deputy Prime Minister.

    • tWig 5.1

      Agree with you there, Ad.

    • SPC 5.2

      Really?

      No one at that age, gets anything permanent.

      And as for consistent decline down – 11.6 to 10%?

      The retirement of Shaw and the other co-leader taking time out, GG leaving, CS operating alone … .

      The thing about Peter's, on the one hand he stands as a veto on Greens in government yet enabled ACT into this coalition – despite their disdain for workers as per unions and wages and intent to open us up to domination by international investment and ownership. That has to bite hard as a break on their party support.

      No amount of "Muldoonist Moyleism (Moral Majority Anita Bryant Orange Florida man falangism of the one that is wrong Winston) is going to cover up that up.

      • Ad 5.2.1

        In Sept 2023 they were polling their best at 14% even 15% for a couple of polls. But result was 11.6% on election day.

        Both Labour and Greens have gone through leadership changes. But Labour has handled the transition much better, and Hipkins is getting great cut-through now.

        The Greens appear complacent with a base of 10% rather than looking hungry enough to take chunks out of the other minor parties.

        If Greens want to look like a serious partner to Labour that keeps NZFirst out of a coalition (rather than the reverse), they need to do more then whine about how they are being scolded by an 80-year-old grump. Remember when we had nationwide climate change marches?

  6. observer 6

    The problem with all these polls is that they will change as soon as National remove their most obvious problem: Luxon.

    The 3 opposition parties can't simply assume that the most unpopular PM in modern history will stay and keep offering them free gifts. National MPs won't passively volunteer for defeat after one term, they'll do what needs to be done (for them).

    • thinker 6.1

      Agreed.

      I don't think that TPM and the Greens get yet that they need to appeal as far as the centre and maybe a bit beyond.

      Swinging voters will probably vote Labour (maybe Green) PROVIDED they can see a tight coalition, ready and able to govern. More so, if they are swinging to the left because of the chaotic coalition we have now.

      These polls are good, but the left won't get over the line in it's current state.

  7. roblogic 7

    Net favourability is infinitely a better measure than preferred prime minister:

    Hipkins: 12.3%
    Luxon: -3.9%

    https://bsky.app/profile/foxylustygrover.bsky.social/post/3llpkmk5lhc2b

  8. Phillip ure 8

    Luxon media handbook:

    1) polls go up ..say 'it is most gratifying that the polls are showing such strong support for the work we are doing..and my preferred prime minister rating going up only underlines that support'

    2)polls go down:..say ..'the only poll I pay any attention to…is the one on election day'..

    • alwyn 8.1

      Can you demonstrate that he actually does this?

      • Phillip ure 8.1.1

        (that was my weak attempt at satire)

        But he did 2 in response to the rnz poll… yesterday..

        ..so fairly recently..

        (Hope that helps clarify that for you..)

        • alwyn 8.1.1.1

          Shame. It was something I could imagine him, and a few other politicians, doing.

          I was really hoping you could show that he really did do it.

          • Phillip ure 8.1.1.1.1

            Well.. it's your lucky day…your 'really hopings' are fulfilled…

            ' cos the biggest red nose on the clown-cart was on breakfast on rnz yesterday…and that is exactly what he said ..

            So..quod et demonstratum…eh..?

  9. SPC 9

    This poll if conducted by Curia would have faced criticism for asking a leading question

    RNZ-Reid Research poll

    Question.

    asked who they thought should be most responsible for providing school lunches.

    Politicians given the results of the poll, either corrected the question in their reply

    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said parents should be providing school lunches, with the Government’s programme serving as a backstop for hungry kids.

    “We’ll continue to provide a free school lunch programme, it’s important, but for parents who can afford it, they should be providing their own lunches.”

    Labour leader Chris Hipkins agreed parents were most responsible but said that was not a reason to scrap the lunch programme or to run it into the ground.

    “We established the school lunch programme targeting the group of kids for whom it was most difficult for parents to do that and where the kids were most likely to show up without a lunch, but most families will still regard that as a parent’s responsibility.”

    or otherwise

    Seymour

    Act leader David Seymour, the minister responsible for the lunch programme, said his view had always been that the duty fell on parents.

    If people bring children into the world they have a set of moral obligations to that child and when people don’t fulfil those moral obligations we are all worse off, particularly innocent children.”

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/new-poll-most-voters-think-parents-should-provide-school-lunches/V3EGIZETLZGKPISROGDCUF4A7U/

    The ACT Minister wanted a 1% increase in the MW (increased to 1.5% – 35 cents an hour).

    So now you know, ACT want adults to know what society they are bringing their children into and it is on them to note what ACT intends to do to the future of this country, as part of their class war.

    • Incognito 9.1

      Yup, leading question to skew the picture.

    • weka 9.2

      weird question. Almost no-one will think schools have the most responsibility, but I guess some people parsed the question to make sense of it so said school over parents.

      The issue isn't who has the most responsibility, but whether some kids go hungry without school meals. It strikes me as a very libertarian question. Disappointing from RNZ.

    • lprent 9.3

      I have a couple of people who email me about poll reliability. One emailed midday with :-

      The latest 1 April 2025 Reid research poll has best practice issues with the data supplied for the party vote Preferred pm favourability and country direction I have started the process for disclosing these issues In the meantime if you wish the detail I will supply this

      I said "yes please".

      I'll be interested what he says. But I suspect that is most likely on the statistical validity of the data.

    • bwaghorn 9.4

      “If people bring children into the world they have a set of moral obligations to that child and when people don’t fulfil those moral obligations we are all worse off, particularly innocent children.”

      So if the parents for whatever reason I'm going to let the children suffer the consequences!!

      Is what seymour should have added because that's what he's doing.

  10. thinker 10

    This would have been taken when Luxon was in India, with all the promises that were made and a large Indian community in NZ with high hopes.

    But, it does show how fickle the situation is and how important it is for the left to have something for people to vote for, without them having to go looking for it, and the three parties working together like a swiss watch.

    TPM and the Greens have their own niche sectors and they appeal to those niches accordingly, but all three parties need to appeal across each others' sectors as well.

Leave a Comment