Polls are noisy, polls of polls are somewhat better. Here’s the latest from RNZ:
Peters could be kingmaker, ‘Jacinda effect’ kicks in
Labour’s polling average is up 4 percentage points on its December average, to 30.6 percent, but its running mate, the Greens, fell two points to 11.3 percent.
At the same time National is down three points to 45.7 percent.
That leaves the gap between National and the combined Labour and Greens at 3.8 percentage points, down from 9.4 points in December and 7.4 in February.
The poll keeps New Zealand First, led by Winston Peters, with a March average of 8.7 percent, as the potential kingmaker – meaning its chosen coalition partner would likely form government.
Gareth Morgan’s Opportunities party has begun to register, with a 0.5 percent average in March. ACT (0.5 percent) and United Future (0.2 percent) still have no traction. …
The piece goes on to discuss the “Jacinda effect”.