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RNZ poll of polls

Written By: - Date published: 10:46 am, March 31st, 2017 - 22 comments
Categories: polls - Tags: , ,

Polls are noisy, polls of polls are somewhat better. Here’s the latest from RNZ:

Peters could be kingmaker, ‘Jacinda effect’ kicks in

Labour’s polling average is up 4 percentage points on its December average, to 30.6 percent, but its running mate, the Greens, fell two points to 11.3 percent.

At the same time National is down three points to 45.7 percent.

That leaves the gap between National and the combined Labour and Greens at 3.8 percentage points, down from 9.4 points in December and 7.4 in February.

The poll keeps New Zealand First, led by Winston Peters, with a March average of 8.7 percent, as the potential kingmaker – meaning its chosen coalition partner would likely form government.

Gareth Morgan’s Opportunities party has begun to register, with a 0.5 percent average in March. ACT (0.5 percent) and United Future (0.2 percent) still have no traction. …

The piece goes on to discuss the “Jacinda effect”.

22 comments on “RNZ poll of polls ”

  1. saveNZ 1

    Jacinda effect – yeah right. Labour have been doing better, as a whole and under Andrew little. The messaging is better.

    It’s also dawning on many voters that Natz are an untrustworthy mob, even their mob boss leader has deserted them sensing a loss…

    After 9 years and feeling the effects of National’s policies, the penny has dropped and voters finally have had enough… it helps that Labour are not going down previous tracks that did not resonate well with voters.. maybe looking at how trends of international voters are feeling like pivotal issues in the US and UK…

    • Enough is Enough 1.1

      National received 45% of the vote when they were elected to government in 2008. Their current polling is higher than that so I am not sure what you base your comment on when you claim:

      “After 9 years and feeling the effects of National’s policies, the penny has dropped and voters finally have had enough”

      In any case I like your confidence. I just don’t share it yet. We have so much hard work to do in the next six months to change this government. Lets not be complacent and forget how good National is at marketing and sales.

      • dukeofurl 1.1.1

        Because the polling 6 months before election is always much higher than election day. A check for the polls back in jan-may 2008 shows national were ‘polling over 50%’

        en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_New_Zealand_general_election,_2008
        Note the last polls gave nation 46.4%, actual vote was 44.9%- 1.5% difference.

        An election day vote of 40% for national is goodbye.

        • Enough is Enough 1.1.1.1

          Ok lets follow your reasoning for the most recent election and see if “the polling 6 months before election is always much higher than election day”.

          From the same Wikipedia source you use it looks like National was polling at about 46.7%

          Now what did they get on election night?

          Clue: its a little bit higher than 46.7%

          • dukeofurl 1.1.1.1.1

            Well my conclusions were based on a similar effect for 2008 and 2011.

            It was you who referred to 2008.

            However 2014 seems to move against the trend, national stayed flat with a slight bump while it was labour which dropped away.
            Dont think 2014 events will be replicated this time and it will be a more normal polling trend.

            • BM 1.1.1.1.1.1

              Lol, two data points = a trend.

              Fuck that’s hilarious.

              • More heart-warming than hilarious, but sure,BM, it’s encouraging to see the direction this is going, day by day, week by week, incident by incident. You must be feeling the turning of the tide, the outflow, the retreat; your comments point to your panic 🙂

            • Mordecai 1.1.1.1.1.2

              The 2011 trend was awful for Labour. They suffered a bigger drop in the lead up to the 2011 election than National, so your logic is somewhat screwed.
              2014, however, was at least in part an aberration, because of a certain German overstayer and his grasping minions.

  2. ianmac 2

    Much made of Jacinda’s poll by the Right. How well does Paula figure in the same polls?

  3. Skeptic 3

    Polls are polls and as such are merely a snapshot at a particular date and very much dependent on the type of polling and where it was done, The “tell” is in the trend across time and different polls. Mid term polling is usually – but not always – a forerunner of election results – but given Key’s resignation it doesn’t apply here. My reading of sources shows the trends are increased support for centre-left and populist – read Lab/Green & NZ 1st and marginal – only just marginal – decline for centre-right. On that basis one might tentatively predict – providing nothing upsets the apple cart – a Lab/Green/NZ 1st victory. The two telling points will be a) will ACT support drop below the threshold & b) will Dunne lose his seat. Without those two props the Nats rely on Maori Party support and that is dubious at best. The real question is “can a Lab/Green government defeat Treasury? If they want to make a difference – ie implement their policies – then they will have to get rid of all the Chicago School adherents wholesale – as in demand their resignation and rapidly get some Keynesian economists back in their. If they don’t they’ll get creamed.

    • Enough is Enough 3.1

      “a) will ACT support drop below the threshold & b) will Dunne lose his seat.”

      Act has been below the 5% threshold since forever. But they will win Epsom and therefore have one seat in Parliament.

      Peter Dunne will lose his seat.

      The question is, and will be on election night, will Winston want to govern with one or two other parties?

  4. That is not how you meta-poll, RNZ, and attributing Labour’s recent strength purely to Jacinda, while reasonable speculation for talkback, doesn’t reach the level of commentary you would expect from news.

    If you’re going to average poll results, you should weight for various factors, and you shouldn’t simply rank the “four most recent polls.” My relatively simple excel-driven average currently counts 10 polls to some degree, although 3 of them are weighted as less than 2%. I weight for how close to the election each poll falls, as well as sample size and methodology of the poll, (eg. polling methods that incorporate mobile phones are more reliable than those that don’t, any organisation that has recently spit out more than 5% of rogue polls is penalised, etc…) and include a cutoff if the poll isn’t recent enough. Even then, an average is just a snapshot and isn’t really news-worthy.

    I was going to provide a seat break-down for their average to put it in context, but as they don’t give the Party Vote for the Māori Party, it’s a little difficult to get it precisely correct. I expect they’d be sitting somewhere around 2%, but as the raw data they use isn’t public, I can’t actually confirm that.

    It does look like their average comes to the same conclusion mine does though- that NZF is kingmaker unless this new trend for the Māori Party suggested by the latest CB poll continues in future polls. (In which case, with current bloc strengths, either party can make National the government, but both are needed to make Labour the government)

  5. Cinny 5

    The outgoing government continues it’s steady downwards trend.

    People are waking up.

    And the day after the Spring Equinox everything will change. 😀

    • Mordecai 5.1

      Based on https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_New_Zealand_general_election,_2017, National’s polling since July 2015 has barely shifted. Labour’s, on the hand, is definitely lower, NZF’s rising.
      Winston Peter’s will decide the next government, and he will never go with the Greens.

      • Cinny 5.1.1

        The graph on the link you provided Mordecai clearly demonstrates a steady downward trend for the outgoing government, so thanks for posting it.

        Yes NZ1st is rising at the same rate that National is falling, as your graph clearly demonstrates. So how can you say that Nationals polling has barely shifted? Mhmm

        Have you asked Winston if he would work with the Greens Mordecai?

        It’s interesting how many Nat voters are turning to NZ1st, but I highly doubt that Winny will work with National. I won’t be voting NZ1st but I am endorsing them and do believe in them

  6. Chess Player 6

    Jeez – bit early to be getting excited isn’t it?
    Months and months until the voters get their say…

    • Six months ’till polling day. It’s a reasonable time to start covering the campaign seriously, I think, but yeah, they’re overhyping a really facile average of polls.

  7. Nick 7

    If the Left want to do better than this, they have to make a few changes.

    If you want Young People to vote for you, tell them. (And don’t call them “Young People” that’s what Old People call them).

    Young People are like anyone. They want to be seen, talked about, talked to and consulted).

    High rents are a problem for young New Zealanders as they are for older Kiwis.

    Global warming, and environmental issues are also far more a problem for younger New Zealanders as things will continue to get worse.

    Helicopter oratory about “young people” and” the environment” won’t resonate, but “Hey you guys out of school or uni can’t afford the rent? Are you happy with that? You think that’s just life? It isn’t. We need your help. And you need your own help.” Or maybe “head out of town and have lunch next to a pretty stream. Take a bathe. Come home with Typhus. Are you happy about that? Can’t do anything about it? Yes you can. Are you 18 or 20 or 25? Never voted? Get busy you’ll be saving your own life. And let me be clear. I’m not just saying “Vote” I’m actually saying: ‘take another look at Labour’. Because we are the only people who can help you get a life that is worth having.”

    Maybe Jacinda can deliver this message. But maybe Andrew can, too.

    As a loooong-time Labour supporter, I am waiting to be inspired by the current iteration. I think it may be time to lose the fear of scaring the horses and up the game. Worthy declarations about giving this or that priority is fine, but it means nothing if it isn’t linked to dramatic or engaging policy.

    There are ways of approaching EVERY area of dysfunction that can excite. Trying to damp down anticipation of change or improvement is an over-rated quality. While subject participation is way undervalued.

    Give me something to vote for, or a reason to believe.

    Even the most vacuous election slogan anticipates radical change.

    “Time for a Change” or even “Make America Great Again”.

    Courage, Andrew and Jacinda. If you win offering precisely NO real change, what exactly have you won?

    I, for one, can’t say I want to vote for more of, essentially, the same, run by nicer people, who say this or that is a priority.

    Note: Build houses for the market at market prices – forget “affordable” – and spend the profits on a MAJOR rental build. That’s where the need is. When rents come down, House Prices will follow.

  8. Nick 8

    Here’s an election slogan:

    ANSWER THE PHONE!
    It’s for you.

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