web analytics

RNZ poll of polls

Written By: - Date published: 10:46 am, March 31st, 2017 - 22 comments
Categories: polls - Tags: , ,

Polls are noisy, polls of polls are somewhat better. Here’s the latest from RNZ:

Peters could be kingmaker, ‘Jacinda effect’ kicks in

Labour’s polling average is up 4 percentage points on its December average, to 30.6 percent, but its running mate, the Greens, fell two points to 11.3 percent.

At the same time National is down three points to 45.7 percent.

That leaves the gap between National and the combined Labour and Greens at 3.8 percentage points, down from 9.4 points in December and 7.4 in February.

The poll keeps New Zealand First, led by Winston Peters, with a March average of 8.7 percent, as the potential kingmaker – meaning its chosen coalition partner would likely form government.

Gareth Morgan’s Opportunities party has begun to register, with a 0.5 percent average in March. ACT (0.5 percent) and United Future (0.2 percent) still have no traction. …

The piece goes on to discuss the “Jacinda effect”.

22 comments on “RNZ poll of polls ”

  1. saveNZ 1

    Jacinda effect – yeah right. Labour have been doing better, as a whole and under Andrew little. The messaging is better.

    It’s also dawning on many voters that Natz are an untrustworthy mob, even their mob boss leader has deserted them sensing a loss…

    After 9 years and feeling the effects of National’s policies, the penny has dropped and voters finally have had enough… it helps that Labour are not going down previous tracks that did not resonate well with voters.. maybe looking at how trends of international voters are feeling like pivotal issues in the US and UK…

    • Enough is Enough 1.1

      National received 45% of the vote when they were elected to government in 2008. Their current polling is higher than that so I am not sure what you base your comment on when you claim:

      “After 9 years and feeling the effects of National’s policies, the penny has dropped and voters finally have had enough”

      In any case I like your confidence. I just don’t share it yet. We have so much hard work to do in the next six months to change this government. Lets not be complacent and forget how good National is at marketing and sales.

      • dukeofurl 1.1.1

        Because the polling 6 months before election is always much higher than election day. A check for the polls back in jan-may 2008 shows national were ‘polling over 50%’

        en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_New_Zealand_general_election,_2008
        Note the last polls gave nation 46.4%, actual vote was 44.9%- 1.5% difference.

        An election day vote of 40% for national is goodbye.

        • Enough is Enough 1.1.1.1

          Ok lets follow your reasoning for the most recent election and see if “the polling 6 months before election is always much higher than election day”.

          From the same Wikipedia source you use it looks like National was polling at about 46.7%

          Now what did they get on election night?

          Clue: its a little bit higher than 46.7%

          • dukeofurl 1.1.1.1.1

            Well my conclusions were based on a similar effect for 2008 and 2011.

            It was you who referred to 2008.

            However 2014 seems to move against the trend, national stayed flat with a slight bump while it was labour which dropped away.
            Dont think 2014 events will be replicated this time and it will be a more normal polling trend.

            • BM 1.1.1.1.1.1

              Lol, two data points = a trend.

              Fuck that’s hilarious.

              • More heart-warming than hilarious, but sure,BM, it’s encouraging to see the direction this is going, day by day, week by week, incident by incident. You must be feeling the turning of the tide, the outflow, the retreat; your comments point to your panic 🙂

            • Mordecai 1.1.1.1.1.2

              The 2011 trend was awful for Labour. They suffered a bigger drop in the lead up to the 2011 election than National, so your logic is somewhat screwed.
              2014, however, was at least in part an aberration, because of a certain German overstayer and his grasping minions.

  2. ianmac 2

    Much made of Jacinda’s poll by the Right. How well does Paula figure in the same polls?

  3. Skeptic 3

    Polls are polls and as such are merely a snapshot at a particular date and very much dependent on the type of polling and where it was done, The “tell” is in the trend across time and different polls. Mid term polling is usually – but not always – a forerunner of election results – but given Key’s resignation it doesn’t apply here. My reading of sources shows the trends are increased support for centre-left and populist – read Lab/Green & NZ 1st and marginal – only just marginal – decline for centre-right. On that basis one might tentatively predict – providing nothing upsets the apple cart – a Lab/Green/NZ 1st victory. The two telling points will be a) will ACT support drop below the threshold & b) will Dunne lose his seat. Without those two props the Nats rely on Maori Party support and that is dubious at best. The real question is “can a Lab/Green government defeat Treasury? If they want to make a difference – ie implement their policies – then they will have to get rid of all the Chicago School adherents wholesale – as in demand their resignation and rapidly get some Keynesian economists back in their. If they don’t they’ll get creamed.

    • Enough is Enough 3.1

      “a) will ACT support drop below the threshold & b) will Dunne lose his seat.”

      Act has been below the 5% threshold since forever. But they will win Epsom and therefore have one seat in Parliament.

      Peter Dunne will lose his seat.

      The question is, and will be on election night, will Winston want to govern with one or two other parties?

  4. That is not how you meta-poll, RNZ, and attributing Labour’s recent strength purely to Jacinda, while reasonable speculation for talkback, doesn’t reach the level of commentary you would expect from news.

    If you’re going to average poll results, you should weight for various factors, and you shouldn’t simply rank the “four most recent polls.” My relatively simple excel-driven average currently counts 10 polls to some degree, although 3 of them are weighted as less than 2%. I weight for how close to the election each poll falls, as well as sample size and methodology of the poll, (eg. polling methods that incorporate mobile phones are more reliable than those that don’t, any organisation that has recently spit out more than 5% of rogue polls is penalised, etc…) and include a cutoff if the poll isn’t recent enough. Even then, an average is just a snapshot and isn’t really news-worthy.

    I was going to provide a seat break-down for their average to put it in context, but as they don’t give the Party Vote for the Māori Party, it’s a little difficult to get it precisely correct. I expect they’d be sitting somewhere around 2%, but as the raw data they use isn’t public, I can’t actually confirm that.

    It does look like their average comes to the same conclusion mine does though- that NZF is kingmaker unless this new trend for the Māori Party suggested by the latest CB poll continues in future polls. (In which case, with current bloc strengths, either party can make National the government, but both are needed to make Labour the government)

  5. Cinny 5

    The outgoing government continues it’s steady downwards trend.

    People are waking up.

    And the day after the Spring Equinox everything will change. 😀

    • Mordecai 5.1

      Based on https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_New_Zealand_general_election,_2017, National’s polling since July 2015 has barely shifted. Labour’s, on the hand, is definitely lower, NZF’s rising.
      Winston Peter’s will decide the next government, and he will never go with the Greens.

      • Cinny 5.1.1

        The graph on the link you provided Mordecai clearly demonstrates a steady downward trend for the outgoing government, so thanks for posting it.

        Yes NZ1st is rising at the same rate that National is falling, as your graph clearly demonstrates. So how can you say that Nationals polling has barely shifted? Mhmm

        Have you asked Winston if he would work with the Greens Mordecai?

        It’s interesting how many Nat voters are turning to NZ1st, but I highly doubt that Winny will work with National. I won’t be voting NZ1st but I am endorsing them and do believe in them

  6. Chess Player 6

    Jeez – bit early to be getting excited isn’t it?
    Months and months until the voters get their say…

    • Six months ’till polling day. It’s a reasonable time to start covering the campaign seriously, I think, but yeah, they’re overhyping a really facile average of polls.

  7. Nick 7

    If the Left want to do better than this, they have to make a few changes.

    If you want Young People to vote for you, tell them. (And don’t call them “Young People” that’s what Old People call them).

    Young People are like anyone. They want to be seen, talked about, talked to and consulted).

    High rents are a problem for young New Zealanders as they are for older Kiwis.

    Global warming, and environmental issues are also far more a problem for younger New Zealanders as things will continue to get worse.

    Helicopter oratory about “young people” and” the environment” won’t resonate, but “Hey you guys out of school or uni can’t afford the rent? Are you happy with that? You think that’s just life? It isn’t. We need your help. And you need your own help.” Or maybe “head out of town and have lunch next to a pretty stream. Take a bathe. Come home with Typhus. Are you happy about that? Can’t do anything about it? Yes you can. Are you 18 or 20 or 25? Never voted? Get busy you’ll be saving your own life. And let me be clear. I’m not just saying “Vote” I’m actually saying: ‘take another look at Labour’. Because we are the only people who can help you get a life that is worth having.”

    Maybe Jacinda can deliver this message. But maybe Andrew can, too.

    As a loooong-time Labour supporter, I am waiting to be inspired by the current iteration. I think it may be time to lose the fear of scaring the horses and up the game. Worthy declarations about giving this or that priority is fine, but it means nothing if it isn’t linked to dramatic or engaging policy.

    There are ways of approaching EVERY area of dysfunction that can excite. Trying to damp down anticipation of change or improvement is an over-rated quality. While subject participation is way undervalued.

    Give me something to vote for, or a reason to believe.

    Even the most vacuous election slogan anticipates radical change.

    “Time for a Change” or even “Make America Great Again”.

    Courage, Andrew and Jacinda. If you win offering precisely NO real change, what exactly have you won?

    I, for one, can’t say I want to vote for more of, essentially, the same, run by nicer people, who say this or that is a priority.

    Note: Build houses for the market at market prices – forget “affordable” – and spend the profits on a MAJOR rental build. That’s where the need is. When rents come down, House Prices will follow.

  8. Nick 8

    Here’s an election slogan:

    ANSWER THE PHONE!
    It’s for you.

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • Government boosts fund for Auckland flooding
    The Government is providing a further $1 million to the Mayoral Relief Fund to help communities in Auckland following flooding, Minister for Emergency Management Kieran McAnulty announced today. “Cabinet today agreed that, given the severity of the event, a further $1 million contribution be made. Cabinet wishes to be proactive ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    11 hours ago
  • New Cabinet focused on bread and butter issues
    The new Cabinet will be focused on core bread and butter issues like the cost of living, education, health, housing and keeping communities and businesses safe, Prime Minister Chris Hipkins has announced. “We need a greater focus on what’s in front of New Zealanders right now. The new Cabinet line ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    11 hours ago
  • Prime Minister to meet with PM Albanese
    Prime Minister Chris Hipkins will travel to Canberra next week for an in person meeting with Australian Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese. “The trans-Tasman relationship is New Zealand’s closest and most important, and it was crucial to me that my first overseas trip as Prime Minister was to Australia,” Chris Hipkins ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    12 hours ago
  • Government makes first payment to Auckland Flooding fund
    The Government is providing establishment funding of $100,000 to the Mayoral Relief Fund to help communities in Auckland following flooding, Minister for Emergency Management Kieran McAnulty announced. “We moved quickly to make available this funding to support Aucklanders while the full extent of the damage is being assessed,” Kieran McAnulty ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Government steps up to assist Auckland during flooding
    As the Mayor of Auckland has announced a state of emergency, the Government, through NEMA, is able to step up support for those affected by flooding in Auckland. “I’d urge people to follow the advice of authorities and check Auckland Emergency Management for the latest information. As always, the Government ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Poroporoaki: Titewhai Te Huia Hinewhare Harawira
    Ka papā te whatitiri, Hikohiko ana te uira, wāhi rua mai ana rā runga mai o Huruiki maunga Kua hinga te māreikura o te Nota, a Titewhai Harawira Nā reira, e te kahurangi, takoto, e moe Ka mōwai koa a Whakapara, kua uhia te Tai Tokerau e te kapua pōuri ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Enhanced Task Force Green Approved following Cyclone Hale
    Carmel Sepuloni, Minister for Social Development and Employment, has activated Enhanced Taskforce Green (ETFG) in response to flooding and damaged caused by Cyclone Hale in the Tairāwhiti region. Up to $500,000 will be made available to employ job seekers to support the clean-up. We are still investigating whether other parts ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • General Election to be held on 14 October 2023
    The 2023 General Election will be held on Saturday 14 October 2023, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced today. “Announcing the election date early in the year provides New Zealanders with certainty and has become the practice of this Government and the previous one, and I believe is best practice,” Jacinda ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announces resignation
    Jacinda Ardern has announced she will step down as Prime Minister and Leader of the Labour Party. Her resignation will take effect on the appointment of a new Prime Minister. A caucus vote to elect a new Party Leader will occur in 3 days’ time on Sunday the 22nd of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Trade and Agriculture Minister to attend World Economic Forum and Global Forum for Food and Agricult...
    The Government is maintaining its strong trade focus in 2023 with Trade and Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor visiting Europe this week to discuss the role of agricultural trade in climate change and food security, WTO reform and New Zealand agricultural innovation. Damien O’Connor will travel tomorrow to Switzerland to attend the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Government funding relief for flood-affected Wairarapa farmers and growers
    The Government has extended its medium-scale classification of Cyclone Hale to the Wairarapa after assessing storm damage to the eastern coastline of the region. “We’re making up to $80,000 available to the East Coast Rural Support Trust to help farmers and growers recover from the significant damage in the region,” ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Government provides support to flooded Tairāwhiti communities
    The Government is making an initial contribution of $150,000 to the Mayoral Relief Fund to help communities in Tairāwhiti following ex-Tropical Cyclone Hale, Minister for Emergency Management Kieran McAnulty announced. “While Cyclone Hale has caused widespread heavy rain, flooding and high winds across many parts of the North Island, Tairāwhiti ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • Government support for flood-affected Gisborne Tairāwhiti farmers and growers
    Rural Communities Minister Damien O’Connor has classified this week’s Cyclone Hale that caused significant flood damage across the Tairāwhiti/Gisborne District as a medium-scale adverse event, unlocking Government support for farmers and growers. “We’re making up to $100,000 available to help coordinate efforts as farmers and growers recover from the heavy ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago