The silver lining of last night’s poll

Written By: - Date published: 1:56 pm, September 12th, 2023 - 31 comments
Categories: act, greens, labour, national, national/act government, nz first, Politics, polls - Tags:

I have to admit last night’s Reid Research poll was pretty dire.  It invoked the same sort of dread I felt early in 2017 and during the latter stages of the 2014 election campaign.

The underlying reasons are clear.  National has a shit load of money through donations from wealthy people upset at imagined threats to their privilege.  And people are grumpy.  The covid lockdowns have affected 5% of the population and opened them up to conspiracy theories.  And the storm damage is still around is in Auckland and on the Hawkes Bay.

It is hard to be positive about anything.

The sense of grumpiness is very public.  I was campaigning for Labour at Avondale Market on Sunday morning.  At different times four older males chose to come up and shout at us repeatedly for reasons I am still processing.  One was a Destiny Church anti vaccination conspiracy nut.  For some reason talking to him about how many lives the lockdowns had saved did not create any impression.  Another was a housing corporation tenant upset that others had made complaints about him and the local MP had not solved this.  He should see what Christopher Bishop plans for him.

The third was a white male obsessed with a rather marginal policy proposal who was upset that Labour were not doing what he wanted.

And the fourth was to the far right of the spectrum who attacked us with Cameron Slater manufactured lines about co governance and ended up abusing us because the party was a Socialist party.

To describe the current Labour Party as a socialist party given where Chris Hipkins has positioned us suggests this person occupies a different dimension to the rest of us.  Some of us dream of the day Labour is a Socialist Party.  Right now it is anything but.

Grumpy older men with testosterone problems shouting is a real example of what is happening right now.

It is the privileged angst that is the most difficult to comprehend.

Like that shown by this mega landlord who would celebrate the possibility of a National win, return of preferential tax treatment for landlords and a 10% to 20% increase in house prices and who has threatened to sell up and emigrate if Labour wins again.  How many houses does someone have to own to feel satisfied?  And how can someone with so much privilege think they deserve more?  If it was not for his clear wealth I would strongly suggest we pass the hat around so that the country can get rid of him.

And the media is pretty disgusting.  Even Radio New Zealand is starting to irk.  Too often their headlines involve National’s inevitably negative response to a Labour announcement rather than the announcement itself.  Morning Report is a mess.  Corin Dann and Ingrid Hipkiss cannot ask questions to save themselves.  Combine this with the afternoon show and it feels like something not too far removed from commercial radio.

This is a real pity.  Mediawatch is an outstanding show, I still enjoy Kim Hill on Saturday morning but the rest of the station is lagging.  The opinionated right wing guests on during the afternoons particularly rankle.  And Nine to Noon politics too often involve right wing commentators with pecuniary interests in their commentary while the left wing commentators are not necessarily Labour friendly.

So it is not wonder the polls are where they are.

The glimmer of hope is that Act’s vote is crashing.  A National Act coalition would be an utter disaster for the country.  But over the past few weeks it appears that Act’s vote has nearly halved.

It is no wonder that Jordan Williams was seen having terse words with a National Party staffer.  National’s actions in funneling donations to NZ First is clearly designed to minimise the ability of Act to hold the next Government to ransom and may mean that a potentially future National Government would only be a shambles and not a complete and utter train wreck.

Of course we still have an election campaign to run and you may wonder if Luxon’s continued poor form will catch up with him.  And I suspect that the PREFU’s analysis that things are actually better than predicted will help.

Hang onto your hats.  Every vote will count.  And there are still questions about the polls.  As pointed out by Professor Grant Duncan polls in 2020 overestimated National’s support and underestimated Labour’s.  He calculates that the polls overcalculated National’s support by an average of 5.8 percentage points. They underestimated Labour support by 3.7 points, the Greens by 1.1% and Te Pati Māori by 0.7%.  This sized change between left and right will see the left well and truly back in the battle.

So hang onto your hats.  And it is a time for all good activists, whether they are Labour Green or Te Pati Maori supporters to get involved.  As I said, every vote will count.

31 comments on “The silver lining of last night’s poll ”

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  1. Jilly Bee 1
    12 September 2023 at 2:39 pm

    Thanks MickySavage – I too was devastated when I watched gleeful Jenna Lynch unfold her poll story last evening. I'm still hoping it was a bit of an outlier result and that the undecided voters will still vote Red – at least the Green vote is on the increase. I had a quick look at Audrey Young's diatribe in the Herald a while ago and quickly moved right along. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/election-2023-audrey-young-even-an-economic-miracle-cant-save-labour-now/J62A73JWR5ERLKW2BJFPBWN4PQ/

    Having a Nat MP as her father and brother in the past has ruled her out as far as I am concerned about her showing any sign of objectivity with her comments. My only hope is that we do what the Aussies did last election after being bombarded with the Murdoch press releases exhorting the population to vote for the Liberals and people went out and elected a Labour Government (sorry – Labor!!).

    At least the PREFU isn't all doom and gloom.

    Also, regarding the rise in the Green vote – James Shaw put out a press release boldly stating that the Green Party will be a force to be reckoned with after the election. He was (rightly) admonished by retired Labour list MP Darien Fenton who said that is all very well, but if Labour don't get the bulk of the votes to be able to form a government, the Green Party will be a larger opposition bloc, which won't do much good at all. Hope that makes sense (the painkillers from my knee operation last week are starting to wear off and interfering with my train of thought!!!)

    • arkie 1.1
      12 September 2023 at 3:07 pm

      if Labour don't get the bulk of the votes to be able to form a government, the Green Party will be a larger opposition bloc, which won't do much good at all

      This just isn't true though, as long as the total vote for the Greens, TPM and Labour is greater than 50% then there will be a left government. It is typical that Labour supporter hostility towards the Greens ramps up as election day approaches; trying to scare people to vote for an underperforming Labour party is not surprising given their strategy so far.

      • Darien Fenton 1.1.1
        13 September 2023 at 4:33 am

        That kind of comment about Labour supporters really pisses me off. As a Labour supporter, the only kind of hostility I have seen has been from the Right and some from Greens attacking Labour (like you do in this post). The left bloc is nowhere near 50%. 12% and 26% adds up to opposition even with 4% from TPM. So what I said is true on current polling.

      • weka 1.1.2
        13 September 2023 at 7:31 am

        It is typical that Labour supporter hostility towards the Greens ramps up as election day approaches; trying to scare people to vote for an underperforming Labour party is not surprising given their strategy so far.

        I don't see the value in stirring that up at this point in time. We need Lab and Green people doing everything we can right now to get as many votes as possible.

        (and yes, I disagree with Jilly, but poking at the sore points between Lab and Green is going to make them more sore)

      • PsyclingLeft.Always 1.1.3
        13 September 2023 at 8:16 am

        It is typical that Labour supporter hostility towards the Greens ramps up as election day approaches; trying to scare people to vote for an underperforming Labour party is not surprising given their strategy so far.

        That is your opinion. And IMO very counterproductive.

        Also….

        Don’t share defeatist bollocks. It tells swing, undecided and habitual non-voters to not bother voting left.

        https://thestandard.org.nz/the-report-of-our-death-has-been-grossly-exaggerated/

        The Left together can defeat NActFirst.

      • Craig Glen Eden 1.1.4
        13 September 2023 at 7:37 pm

        Totally agree trying to make out Labour are the only option for those on the left is a nonsense.

        Let’s be honest Labour lost Nurses and Teachers when its then ministers foolishly started commenting on their contract rounds.

        Hipkins and Little should have known better. Their repeated lines were what you would have expected from National Ministers, not that of any Labour Mps.

        It should be remembered Labour also took away the right to informed consent without coercion when it came to vaccination for these two professions. This is a fundamental basic human right. It has nothing to do with pro vaccination or anti vaccination.
        This adversely affected both these professions. When you lose Teachers and Nurses as a Labour Government you can kiss good buy to being able to get enough votes to form the next Government.
        Labour sadly only has its self to blame and sadly we are likely to end up with a totally incompetent National Party ruling again.
        Labour and its supporters need to take a good look at themselves. Defending the indefensible is all well and good until the reality of election day hits.

    • Patricia Bremner 1.2
      12 September 2023 at 6:36 pm

      Get well Jilly. Knees are more painful than hips. Don't suffer. Email your Dr. They will find a more effective treatment to get you over the hump.smiley We can do this.

  2. Ad 2
    12 September 2023 at 2:55 pm

    Your loyalty and volunteer service is something to behold Mickey.

  3. alwyn 3
    12 September 2023 at 3:21 pm

    We could get an even more interesting situation if the shift in the Labour and Green party support keeps changing at the rate it currently is,

    The Labour Party could drop to 17% and the Green Party might get up to 18%. That would make the Green Party leader the official Leader of the Opposition. It seems to have statutory roles that assume an individual in the job. Would it be Davidson or Shaw?

    • Darien Fenton 3.2
      13 September 2023 at 4:23 am

      Being in opposition is no picnic for anyone despite who the leader is ; I find it incredible you think this is an aspiration for the Left.

      • SPC 3.2.1
        13 September 2023 at 6:56 am

        Alwyn always uses his right hand when stirring.

        • alwyn 3.2.1.1
          13 September 2023 at 4:57 pm

          Of course I use my right hand. After all I am stirring up a pot of gruel.

          I spent s bit of time working in the Middle East. You certainly wouldn't expect me to use my left hand when anywhere near food.

          I rather expected, and liked, the response from Weka. I didn't really think that anyone would take the remark seriously as Ms Fenton seems to have.

          She is quite right though from what I have been told. I knew two people who had been Leader of the Opposition. One from each side of the House. They both said it was the worst job in politics.

  4. weka 4
    12 September 2023 at 3:23 pm

    Very very good micky.

    Also, bonus, polling trends has NZF out of parliament

    https://www.newsroom.co.nz/the-latest-election-data

    • lprent 4.1
      12 September 2023 at 4:57 pm

      Wrong assumption.

      Always assume that NZF gets roughly between 1-3% above pre-election polling, until about a week before the election – when it tends to firm up.

      For them 4.9% and 3.9% probably means that they get well over 5%. From wikipeda poll pages and picking respected polls about 20 days before the election

      • In 2020 @ ~20 days (before the election) polled 1.4% and 2.6% on election day .
      • In 2017 5% and 6.3%
      • In 2014 5.8% and 8.66%
      • In 2011 3.7% and 6.59%
      • In 2008 2.1% and 4.07%

      This happens in every election back to the early 90s.

  5. ianmac 5
    12 September 2023 at 3:46 pm

    Yes thanks Micky. We will never surrender!

    (Though I doubt we will call the Election a fraud like Donald did smiley)

  6. Thinker 6
    12 September 2023 at 5:25 pm

    Scuttlebutt is that the right is also pinning expectations on a frustrated left not turning out to vote.

    As much as encouraging people to vote, we must encourage them to turn out and vote.

    If National win, though, it will be a bit like people jumping from the frying pan into the fire. Sometimes, after a long run of bad times, people will vote for something they secretly know isn't good for them, just for the sake of change.

    Every election I hope to see a party that has an umbrella vision for (dare I use the phrase) making the country great again, and policies that underpin that vision. Instead, we keep seeing celebrity candidates and policies that are based on focus groups.

  7. feijoa 7
    12 September 2023 at 5:26 pm

    We had a phone call on the landline last night from TVNZ doing a political poll. Hubby told them to go away!

    It's the second landline call we've had.

    If they're only using landlines, then the polls must be a fiction. Don't know anyone under about 60 who still has a landline.

    • Craig H 7.1
      13 September 2023 at 9:56 am

      The main ones use a mix of landlines and cellphone numbers and have done for some time – as you say, not many landlines left any more (I'm under 60 and have one but I think ours is the exception among our friends and families).

  8. Patricia Bremner 8
    12 September 2023 at 6:43 pm

    20% have not decided yet!!devil

  9. Blazer 9
    12 September 2023 at 8:34 pm

    More power to you Mickey for being on the front line.

    Where did this come from…'National’s actions in funneling donations to NZ First '?

  10. Chris 10
    13 September 2023 at 9:42 am

    It's interesting that a couple of lucky breaks going the way of the nactoid black ops merchants taking out a handful of ministers on the rise has brought us to where we are now.

  11. Vivie 11
    13 September 2023 at 1:18 pm

    Thank you Micky. I agree with you about the media and RNZ's apparent bias towards National. Much of the interviewing is superficial and lacks analytical questions.

    It is unfathomable why so many people are resentful towards Labour, apparently for using strategies to maximise NZers' safety during the COVID-19 pandemic, and for keeping the economy functioning well by providing financial support for employers and workers. Why are people holding onto their perverse anger, unless they are easily swayed by constant negative headlines criticising Labour?

    It seems many people intend to "punish" Labour by voting for National and/or ACT, whose policies will evidently disadvantage the majority of NZers, including many of those voters. This is puerile behaviour. How do they think National or ACT will help them? The most negative impact will be the rapid rise in house prices and rental costs, then the effects of National reversing many of Labour's socioeconomic policies and cutting public services.

    • Anne 11.1
      13 September 2023 at 1:48 pm

      It is unfathomable why so many people are resentful towards Labour…

      The short answer Vivie is: they are like lemmimgs. They rush mindlessly to the clifftops and ask to be pushed over expecting ambulances to be at the bottom. When they discover they're not there, somebody tells them it was because the Labour Govt. got rid of them and they believe it.

      Perhaps not a very good analogy but the best I can think of.

      Welcome to TS btw. I haven't seen your 'name' before. We have some extra bright sparks on this site who keep us far better informed than the media in general does.

      • Vivie 11.1.1
        13 September 2023 at 2:04 pm

        Thank you Anne. I'm a regular reader of The Standard, but only a very occasional commenter. I appreciate the depth of knowledge of the post writers.

    • Ad 11.2
      13 September 2023 at 4:26 pm

      Agree with that word "unfathomable".

      Such a perversity to this current electoral mood.

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