There never was a rockstar

Written By: - Date published: 9:39 am, July 4th, 2015 - 92 comments
Categories: economy - Tags: ,

There never was a “rockstar” economy. There was a period of high international dairy prices and artificial stimulus from the Christchurch rebuild. Take those away and what have you got? Not much:

Economy expands 0.2pc – weakest quarterly growth in two years

New Zealand’s $239 billion economy grew at its weakest quarterly pace in two years, driven by a dairy-led contraction in agriculture and the impact on the mining sector of a drop in oil and gas activity. The New Zealand dollar fell.

Gross domestic product grew 0.2 per cent in the first three months of the year, according to Statistics New Zealand.

And so:

Top economist warns of NZ recession risk
…
BNZ head of research Stephen Toplis said the biggest shock to New Zealand’s economy had been the ongoing demise of the dairy sector.
…
“In part, the demise of dairy will be having an impact on economy-wide confidence, such as reflected in the recently released ANZ [business confidence] survey,” Toplis said. “In turn these confidence readings are also useful in predicting future GDP [gross domestic product] growth. Unfortunately, the trend in confidence is down.”

BNZ is forecasting annual average growth this year of 2.4 per cent, falling to 2.1 per cent over 2016 and 2017.

“That said, the balance of risks around our forecast is becoming more skewed to the downside,” Toplis said. “Indeed, so much so that it is not hard to envisage a scenario where a recession becomes imminent.”

Here’s Brian Fallow in The Herald today:

Recession lurks in shadows

Weak dairy, business outlook signs growth could be stopped in its tracks.

New Zealand is enjoying 3.2 per cent economic growth and 0.1 per cent inflation, the statisticians tell us, but Bank of New Zealand economists warn we could see those numbers switch.

In the wake of a further lurch lower in export dairy prices and weak readings for consumer and business confidence, over the past two days market economists have revised down their outlook for interest rates. …

The NZ economy needs to be fundamentally reshaped, and the only sensible goal to work towards is a sustainable green economy. Renewable energy generation, low carbon emissions, locally made products – smart green growth.

92 comments on “There never was a rockstar ”

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  1. BM 1
    4 July 2015 at 10:03 am

    The NZ economy needs to be fundamentally reshaped

    No it doesn’t and nobody but a very,very,very,very small percentage wants radical change.

    The vast majority are happy with the status quo, sure it could do with some tweaking, but as for being fundamentally reshaped, not a chance.

    • dv 1.1
      4 July 2015 at 10:10 am

      Yep debt now $99 billion

      So no problem EH BM

      Now whats happening in Greece?

    • Ad 1.2
      4 July 2015 at 10:10 am

      Too much poverty to agree with that.

      BM repeated the great illustration last week of the assets of New Zealand as a house in which, by proportion, 50% of New Zealand are crowded into a half of the basement.

      Our export base is just too thin, too weak, and too vulnerable to commodity cycles.

      • BM 1.2.1
        4 July 2015 at 10:27 am

        The thing though, you can’t just miracle up new products, technologies to flog off to people.

        New products take years/decades of development with no guarantee of success.

        Any way I just had a look at some recent export figures
        ———————————————
        Total exports 4,572.5 billion

        Dairy Product Manufacturing 1,379.6 billion

        That means dairy accounts for 30% of the monthly exports, not quite as reliant on dairy as I though we were.

        https://www.bec.org.nz/__data/assets/pdf_file/0013/101713/Exports-by-Category.pdf

        • Ad 1.2.1.1
          4 July 2015 at 10:44 am

          The report you should have a look at is the MBIE report last year on the nature of our exporters, the categories, changes over time, etc etc. From that report:

          Agriculture, forestry and fishing employ just 7% of New Zealand’s workforce. But Food and Beverage exports are 38% of our exports.

          Emerging export categories in the last decade include high technology manufacturing (especially Fisher and Paykel Healthcare), and computer services, processed foods, and wine.

          Fonterra accounts for 70% of all Research and Development expenditure in Food and Beverage, and Fonterra is also by far our major international company.
          Even with dairy volatility, current predictions are still for a GDP growth of 2.8% over the next four years, and an unemployment rate of 4.7% in election year.

          We are a whole bunch more diverse than say the 1970s, but our exports are now deliberately dominated by one company and one commodity.

          • dukeofurl 1.2.1.1.1
            4 July 2015 at 11:10 am

            Interesting story the other day which inverted the myths about NZ

            We are not a small country, population and size puts us in the top half.

            Trading nation, we arent especially reliant on trade

            • Ad 1.2.1.1.1.1
              4 July 2015 at 12:06 pm

              Citation?

            • joe90 1.2.1.1.1.2
              4 July 2015 at 12:17 pm

              The mythical country.

              “trade intensity is low in New Zealand compared to other OECD countries of similar size”

              http://www.pressreader.com/new-zealand/the-dominion-post/20150702/281762742913847/TextView

              edit: I think this is the article the duke refers to

              • greywarshark …
                4 July 2015 at 1:00 pm

                Good old OECD always offering good advice for the better running of countries in the world. This link has a great graph where I tried to guess which countries were at its extremes. Press the button and a coloured line shows up. It is the sort of fun that keeps pigeons pecking at buttons for snacks!

                Quote – Tackling inequalities in incomes, health outcomes, education and well-being, requires breaking down the barriers to inclusive growth and reaching new frontiers in policymaking and implementation. Everyone should be able to realise their potential and to share the benefits of growth and increased prosperity. Secretary General OECD
                and
                Income inequality in OECD countries is at its highest level for the past half century….
                Uncertainty and fears of social decline and exclusion have reached the middle classes in many societies….
                In emerging economies, such as China and India, a sustained period of strong economic growth has helped lift millions of people out of absolute poverty. But the benefits of growth have not been evenly distributed and high levels of income inequality have risen further.

                Under Inequality and Regions:
                Evidence shows that the factors that most influence peoples’ well-being are local issues, such as employment, access to health services, pollution and security. So, the policy responses must also be locally targeted.
                Policies that take better account of regional problems and needs may have a greater impact on improving well-being for the country as a whole by tackling the sources of inequality more directly.

              • greywarshark …
                4 July 2015 at 1:51 pm

                Perhaps we should get familiar with this term Trade intensity?
                Trade Intensity Index is based on an actual observation of bilateral trade flow, and it measure that intimacy of the trading relationship between any given two countries.
                Higher in the Trade Intensity Index, better will be our export possibility and therefore an exporter should choose the market with high TII values.
                The Trade Intensity Index is defined as the share of a country’s export going to a partner divided by the share of world imports going to the partner.

                Low Trade intensity means I guess that we do not have many large trades bilaterally which probably indicates that we are too reliant on a few trading nations, and are small fry to most compared to what trading they do with other favoured nations.

                So take out milk from product, and China and Australia, and what are we left with in the health and strength of our trading position?
                http://www.gmspmi.com/index.php?Content=Page&PageID=10

                This paper on RTAs Regional Trade Agreements stated –
                or any Regional Trade Agreement (RTA) to be successful, it is
                imperative on partner countries to have complementary trade structure to be exploited for mutual benefit.
                http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/29279/1/sarathpaper.pdf.pdf

                Is that what we need rather than ‘global’ TPPA?

                • Naturesong …
                  5 July 2015 at 2:01 pm

                  Yup. Following that line of thought, this Stanford article on the book The Rise and Fall of Classical Greece written by Professor Josiah Ober might be of interest;
                  Stanford scholar debunks long-held beliefs about economic growth in ancient Greece

                  The data collection and subsequent modelling is published at Polis, hosted by Stanford – JavaScript on and prepare to have your mind blown.

                  Article extract below;

                  Ober says there was previously a developing and crystallizing consensus among classical scholars that there was little to no economic growth in ancient Greece – as was the case in most societies of that time.

                  But instead of portraying a static, poor Greek economy, Ober’s new findings have shown that from about 1000 to 300 B.C., classical Greece had impressive rates of economic growth that were unparalleled by its contemporaries in antiquity. …

                  … Ober explained that these rates are very low compared to modern standards. “But compared to other pre-modern economies, this is really spectacular growth.”. …

                  … Ober said that the “strikingly democratic” Greek system allowed for key aspects of economic prosperity, including fertile ground for innovation and incentive for people to invest in themselves.

                  Ober explained that if people think a powerful individual or government is going to reach in and take all the benefits of their effort and education, it’s not a recipe for high growth. “No particular reason for specialization, no particular reason for innovation – keep your head down, do what granddad did, and get on with it.

                  “On the other hand, if you believe that the rules are fair, that the rules will protect you from bullies in your society and that the government is in a sense on your side,” Ober added, then people feel it’s worthwhile to invest in things like education and specialization.

                  Another side of the coin is innovation. When hundreds of small states are full of people investing in themselves, the result is high levels of “competition to do things better, to develop more efficient institutions, to develop more efficient technologies and better techniques.”

                  Ober acknowledges that there have been cases in which highly centralized systems had periods of significant economic growth. He said other scholars “have argued that the only way to create the kind of long-term stability that allows a lot of growth” is to start with “strong forms of centralization that might eventually become more democratic – but first you’ve got to break some heads to get everybody on the same side.”

                  Bold is mine.

        • Draco T Bastard 1.2.1.2
          4 July 2015 at 4:39 pm

          The thing though, you can’t just miracle up new products, technologies to flog off to people.

          New products take years/decades of development with no guarantee of success.

          So you think that we should do nothing and get poorer and poorer as our resources are sold off over seas to enrich the already wealthy?

          So asspirational of you.

          • Wayne 1.2.1.2.1
            5 July 2015 at 8:03 am

            Well, I agree on diversifying the economy. There is no doubt the govt could do more to promote technology rich companies (the TIN 1000 plus some).

            But for many decades to come our major exports will come from the land , as they have done for the last 150 years since refrigeration. And rather than this being “resources are sold over seas,” this is both sustainable and renewable – the ultimate green economy.

            And rather than getting “poorer and poorer,” we have got richer and richer, and compared to many OECD nations reasonably well spread among the population.

            So “no” to radical change, but yes to doing more to boost high tech manufacturing and services.

            • Paul 1.2.1.2.1.1
              5 July 2015 at 8:29 am

              Only the 1% have got richer and richer Wayne.
              You need to get out more and see life outside your leafy suburb ghetto.

              • Wayne …
                5 July 2015 at 10:04 am

                Paul,

                You need to become more aware of the actual information.

                Go to the Statistics NZ site. Salaries and wages have increased at a faster rate than inflation over the last three years. They have essentially mirrored overall economic growth rates. Another way way of looking at this, is that inequality has not increased in recent years.

                So for most people, they have become better off over the last three years, just as they did between 1996 and 2007, before the GFC hit.

                Of course for first home buyers in Auckland it has been tough to break into the market. But for the 65% of households that own their own home, well it has been pretty good, especially taking into account low interest rates.

                The point of this is that so long as the left constantly go on about the 1% and the evils of neo-liberalism, they will stay in opposition. People can see, from their own experience, that these sorts of claims do not stand up to scrutiny.

                As Helen Clark said this morning, the left has to be able to appeal to the aspirational middle to win. And she certainly showed in the interview the depth of the contrast with latest crop of Labour leaders.

                • Draco T Bastard …
                  5 July 2015 at 2:05 pm

                  Go to the Statistics NZ site. Salaries and wages have increased at a faster rate than inflation over the last three years.

                  Only on average. If you break it down to deciles (Which Stats NZ doesn’t seem to publish any more) we see the same shit that’s been happening for the last thirty years of neo-liberalism. The increasing number of lower paid are going backwards, the decreasing middle are hanging on just and the top 10% are getting richer.

                  So for most people, they have become better off over the last three years, just as they did between 1996 and 2007, before the GFC hit.

                  No, most people are being ripped off:

                  For example, in New Zealand, if the pay of lower and middle wage earners had moved in line with national productivity it is estimated that their current pay would be about 25% higher than it is at present. By contrast, the pay of top pay earners has tended to increase well above the national productivity rates. In New Zealand, the pay of the top 10% of wage earners during this period has risen in real terms by some 80% (Rashbrooke,2013).

                  That’s the system you support Wayne, a system that increases poverty for the majority while rewarding the already rich for being rich.

            • Draco T Bastard 1.2.1.2.1.2
              5 July 2015 at 1:36 pm

              There is no doubt the govt could do more to promote technology rich companies (the TIN 1000 plus some).

              I tend to think that the government should stay out of private business. They can sink or swim all by themselves.

              What I would like the government to do is massive amounts of R&D into diverse industries and manufacturing up to and including building and owning the manufacturies. The small, innovative cooperatives would then be easily able to manufacture their product

              But for many decades to come our major exports will come from the land

              Only if we’ve got people with no imagination or drive to improve NZ in charge such as National and Act.

              And rather than this being “resources are sold over seas,” this is both sustainable and renewable – the ultimate green economy.

              No, it’s still resources being sold over seas and thus isn’t sustainable. Farming, especially dairy, is accurately described as grass mining. The resources used to grow that grass has to come from somewhere and our farmers have been importing them for some time.

              And rather than getting “poorer and poorer,” we have got richer and richer,

              Did you miss the increasing poverty?

              So “no” to radical change, but yes to doing more to boost high tech manufacturing and services.

              And yet up above you say that it will take decades when the US developed integrated circuits over a span of ten years from zilch when we have the benefit of knowing a) that they work and b) how to make them. I’m not talking radical here, I’m talking about implementing technologies that have been common knowledge for the last half century.

              That’s not radical, what’s radical is your demand that we leave it a few more decades so that we can become poorer.

    • Sabine 1.3
      4 July 2015 at 10:18 am

      shorter BM, I am doing well and the rest can just get fudged.

      No need to change anything.

    • adam 1.4
      4 July 2015 at 10:25 am

      Out of touch comment, from a supporter of, an out of touch government.

    • Skinny 1.5
      4 July 2015 at 10:43 am

      Your lead snake oil saleman Joyce was quick to point out take no notice of a predicted economic down turn. He was spraying that much snake oil all over the The Nation studio I could see someone in the background mopping the floor. The Zombie man put the viewers straight about Joyces job growth talk…It will take years.

    • whateva next? 1.6
      4 July 2015 at 11:57 am

      and who are you to speak for the “vast majority”? If the “vast majority” were making and “informed choice” I would accept the decision, but the roadies of the rock star economy are far from informed.

      • BM 1.6.1
        4 July 2015 at 12:28 pm

        The only people who want massive change would be those people within the green voting block, of that block I’d say less than 50% would want such change

        That leaves 95+%, I would classify that as a vast majority.

        • whateva next? 1.6.1.1
          4 July 2015 at 12:51 pm

          If the “vast majority” were informed about the current trajectory, they would vote for change.
          Otherwise 100% agree, people like a “status quo”, that’s normal, and typical of any society/person, as stability is a basic survival instinct.
          This government are taking FULL ADVANTAGE for their own ends of the above.

        • Macro 1.6.1.2
          4 July 2015 at 12:54 pm

          As whateva next says:

          but the roadies of the rock star economy are far from informed.

          I think that includes you BM.
          Just because the sheeple have never thought for themselves – doesn’t make our present “economic policy” (if you can call it that) the best, or fairest.

      • greywarshark 1.6.2
        4 July 2015 at 1:25 pm

        @whatevanext
        Who is ‘you’ that you are addressing? Do readers have to guess?

        Some facts from the OECD economic info. for those interested. I was looking at a comparison between NZ and Norway using their template for the Better Life Index.

        NZ –
        Some 78% of men are in paid work, compared with 68% of women.
        In New Zealand, around 14% of employees work very long hours,
        more than the OECD average of 13%,
        with 20% of men working very long hours compared with 7% for women.

        (Look at the long hours that NZ men and women have to work, more than the OECD average, compared to those of Norway.)
        Norway –
        Some 77% of men are in paid work, compared with 74% of women.
        In Norway,only 3% of employees work very long hours,
        much less than the OECD average of 13%,
        with 4% of men working very long hours compared with just 1% for women.

        Norway and NewZealand have similar geographically distant positions, population etc. Here is the link for Norway, and New Zealand and any other OECD country can be called up on the Better Life Index.
        http://www.oecdbetterlifeindex.org/countries/norway/

        • whateva next? 1.6.2.1
          4 July 2015 at 1:47 pm

          I was responding to BM, who was responding to my previous comment.

        • Macro 1.6.2.2
          4 July 2015 at 1:49 pm

          Who is ‘you’ that you are addressing? Do readers have to guess?</blockquote?
          whateva next is replying to BM's comment @ 1
          whateva next's is the 6th reply to that vastly inaccurate and ill-informed comment (noted as 1.6 on the top right of the comment)

    • keyman 1.7
      4 July 2015 at 7:03 pm

      the problem in new Zealand is there is to many poor and to many in crappy jobs expecting welfare there dragging the economy down if we reduced the population there would be more to go round .that’s why we need killer housing. yes new Zealand is stuffed we are almost at zero interest rates but you cant blame John key its poor life choices the lack of the will to win the killer instinct. who needs exports anyway we can sell more houses to each other at ridiculous prices dose up on propaganda and say after john all is well with the world .

  2. Stuff the Politicians 2
    4 July 2015 at 10:19 am

    Pity the Dairy Farmer with large debt and who owes the Bank as the world seems over flowing with Milk.
    Tough times are ahead.
    This item written by Michael Pascoe in the SMH yesterday about NZ is not great reading for those concerned or for the NZ economy in general.

    http://www.smh.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/milking-it–when-your-main-commodity-sours-20150703-gi4l7d.html

    • Ad 2.1
      4 July 2015 at 10:22 am

      +1 Good article

      • greywarshark 2.1.1
        4 July 2015 at 1:35 pm

        Yes wasn’t it a good article. We should make sure we keep an eye on Australian News so we can keep up with what our media won’t tell us because it is not politically prudent.

        From SMH item – things that Fonterra would have known, but because it is based on supplying commodities, wouldn’t have had many levers to pull to change course.

        For example, Bloomberg today carries a story about American dairy processors dumping milk they simply can’t sell as American milk production runs at a record high for the fifth year in a row.

        As previously reported, the Europeans have dropped quota restrictions and announced they want to become the world’s biggest milk product exporters. Part of that is Ireland intending to increase production by 50 per cent. At the opposite end of the earth, little Uruguay has been travelling down the New Zealand path of a China-driven milk boom.

        There’s an awful lot of coffee in Brazil, but there’s a growing ocean of milk everywhere with more production planned. Our very own mining billionaire Gina Hancock has extraordinary plans to milk 40,000 cows in a shed on the Mary River north-west of Noosa. It will have to be a very large shed, a half-billion-dollar venture into a level of factory dairy farming not known in Australia. Time and markets will tell if it would have been a better idea to have built a controversial dam on that land instead.

        • Ergo Robertina 2.1.1.1
          4 July 2015 at 1:56 pm

          We’re experiencing collective denial about the milk bust, in which the media is complicit, although Nine to Noon has been doing a better job.
          But the SMH article doesn’t contain anything new except an outside perspective. It’s a bit novel for us as we receive very little attention, which is also why the awful rockstar tag took hold.
          On the other hand, it’s not all that different from Peter Lyons’ recent analysis:
          http://www.odt.co.nz/opinion/opinion/346666/economy-splutters

          • greywarshark 2.1.1.1.1
            4 July 2015 at 10:06 pm

            That Otago Daily Times item had some great figures

            Total bank borrowing from overseas currently stands at $117 billion.
            This is up from $55 billion in 2001.
            So, in a nutshell, we spend more than we earn in our dealings with the rest of world.
            Fortunately, foreigners have been willing to lend our money back to us as well as buy our assets, including houses            .

    • Saarbo 2.2
      4 July 2015 at 10:49 am

      Just as many at The Standard predicted this world dairy glut leading to a collapse of our successful dairy story well before the bank economist’s, Im sticking my neck out to suggest that talk of a dairy recovery finally has some validity if May’s US Dairy production figures are anything to go by. http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/DairProd/DairProd-07-02-2015.pdf
      Mays US production of Skim Milk Powder dropped a whopping 38.3% compared to May of last year. This is a massive drop in supply at the same time as NZ’s place on the dairy cost curve must have improved hugely with our currency dropping against the USD.
      NZ will always be reliant on Dairy for our export success, we just have to learn to do it sustainable and without wrecking our rivers.

      • Ad 2.2.1
        4 July 2015 at 10:58 am

        “Sustinability” is not enough, whatever the industry. It should be a bottom line of everything we make, but won’t become a brand differential for New Zealand products alone.

        The problem, as Rod Oram has pointed out many times in his Sunday Star Times articles, is Fonterra itself. Granted a monopoly, it continues to choose massive plant, bulk production requiring faster and higher on-farm production, very low value-add or niche products.

        A future government should commit to reviewing the Fonterra monopoly – not necessarily to overturn it, but to require it to face the risks it places upon New Zealand when it alters so much of our country towards bulk low value commodities.

        • Saarbo 2.2.1.1
          4 July 2015 at 11:24 am

          Yes, I agree with a lot of what Rod Oram says…but to be fair to Fonterra, they had to deal with the massive dairy conversion of the South Island leading to the need for a huge amount of additional production capacity, the only economic way that they could deal with this within their capital constraints was to convert milk into powder, its relatively cheap compared to other more highly processed products/branding. Fonterra has a debt/equity ratio of over 50%…it doesn’t have capital to spend on more expensive plants.

          • Ad 2.2.1.1.1
            4 July 2015 at 12:13 pm

            Fonterra’s drive for ever-greater bulk production drove those vast dairy conversions. They lead the market, not farmers.

            Fonterra’s asset management – including its massive drying plants – essentially drives their business planning, rather than the other way around which is what it should be. The business question is what debt should be used for: bulk commodities or value-added product research and marketing. The story of New Zealand right there.

            Unless Fonterra starts sending market signals to its farmers that they will gain a massive margin for their value-added shares, New Zealand will go harder down the path of commodity vulnerability.

            Fonterra should leave the Chinese milk-powder and infant formula markets to those Chinese vertically-integrated companies domiciled here.

            • Naki man 2.2.1.1.1.1
              4 July 2015 at 4:11 pm

              Ad

              “Fonterra’s drive for ever-greater bulk production drove those vast dairy conversions. They lead the market, not farmers ”

              How exactly do employees of Fonterra lead the owners of Fonterra to convert land onto dairy farms

              • Ad …
                4 July 2015 at 4:16 pm

                Let me walk you through this.

                Fonterra sets the price at which their farmers will be paid.

                Farmers who decide to contract to Fonterra do so on that forecast milk price.

                Farmers determine what kind of farm to run based on the forecast price for the kind of commodity to be farmed.

                • Pat …
                  5 July 2015 at 11:36 am

                  both arguments are too simplistic….the equation that determines action is return on investment and Fonterra only influences part of that equation

      • Lanthanide 2.2.2
        4 July 2015 at 11:32 am

        Why are you only looking at the skim milk powder production dropping? Milk is used for many things, and many of the other production figures have increased.

        There’s also this article, that talks about record US milk production: http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/dairy/69962286/holy-cow-milk-supplies-overwhelm-us-dairies

        Domestic output in May reached 8.34 billion kilograms, the most in any month, and is on pace to reach a record 94.66 billion kg this year, the US Department of Agriculture said on June 18. Globally, production will rise 2.1 per cent to a record 582.52 million tons as top exporter New Zealand sells the most ever and the European Union ends limits on dairies that had been in place since 1984, the USDA said.

        NZ is in for dark times ahead. It’s going to be 18 months at least before there’s any significant boost in diary prices.

        • Ad 2.2.2.1
          4 July 2015 at 12:58 pm

          This is where it diverges.
          The New Zealand economy outside of Auckland will continue to flatten.

          The Auckland economy will continue upwards. It’s far less vulnerable to dairy commodity cycles, buoyed by real estate, immigration, its own domestic economy, its international connectedness, tertiary eduction sector, professional services, higher end manufacturing, and i.t. production. It also requires about 1/3 of the social welfare from central government.
          But Auckland is behaving like an economy increasingly apart from the rest of New Zealand.

        • keyman 2.2.2.2
          4 July 2015 at 10:25 pm

          i think you have to factor in the arrival of us mega farms when you factor those in this looks more like structural collapse new Zealand cost advantage is gone

      • keyman 2.2.3
        4 July 2015 at 9:49 pm

        dairy cant pay the bills there are constraints of water and land it never could and was never going to thats why NZ inc has to move up the value chain even when there was record dairy prices NZ was still in deficit, that means education r and d and capital investment and increased saving to fund business but we would rather go bust on speculation and capital mis allocation like the rest of the western world

  3. Robert 3
    4 July 2015 at 10:21 am

    The whole game is BS
    Take Ireland
    1% of the EUs population and 42% of its debt ?

  4. Robert 4
    4 July 2015 at 10:25 am

    The whole game is BS
    Take Ireland it has 1% of the EU population, and 42% of its debt ?

  5. Enough is Enough 5
    4 July 2015 at 10:58 am

    I think the term rock star meant stand out economy.

    When compared to the rest of the world it was the rock star. And when you look at what is happening in Australia and Europe, we are to a large degree still looking pretty healthy.

  6. TeWhareWhero 6
    4 July 2015 at 11:16 am

    A tweet :

    “Instead of claiming to be a rockstar economy how about we aspire to be a really talented & innovative jazz quartet?”

  7. Tiger Mountain 7
    4 July 2015 at 11:49 am

    which rockstar?
    vegan, mindful, work life balance, big charity worker–ok not too many of those!

    or
    pool gone green, Lambo repo’ed, close ‘fans’ all got hep C, stash bag way empty, hands shake in the morning…

  8. Philip Ferguson 8
    4 July 2015 at 11:53 am

    Key’s ‘vision’ is just managing the malaise of NZ capitalism and spinning a load of nonsense of how a weak economy, based on tourism and dairy exports, is a rock star performer: https://rdln.wordpress.com/2013/01/31/keys-vision-managing-the-malaise-of-new-zealand-capitalism/

    Rock star economy and the lost prophets: https://rdln.wordpress.com/2014/01/09/rock-star-economy-and-the-lost-prophets/

  9. barry 9
    4 July 2015 at 11:58 am

    0.2% increase in GDP is actually a drop in GDP per capita given the population increase over the quarter.

  10. Sable 10
    4 July 2015 at 12:47 pm

    I wasn’t aware the the last global recession had ever ended… but now apparently its restarted. Errr OK.

    • keyman 10.1
      5 July 2015 at 5:38 pm

      if there was a recovery interest rates would be back at normal levels instead we are heading to zirp which is effectively negative interest rates i don’t see why we should give the banks the use of our money when there is no pricing for inflation or risk savers should pull there money

  11. Reddelusion 11
    4 July 2015 at 1:52 pm

    And and dairy will collapse, and and the sky will fall in, and and the 1pc will take over and and the people have all been duped and and crisis after crisis will be announced and and my phone is been bugged, and and jk is the anti Christ and and we have weather ( must be climate change) and and I haven’t got a life worrying myself senseless

    • KB 11.1
      4 July 2015 at 2:29 pm

      Reddelusion you can clap your hands over your eyes, stick you fingers in your ears and go la la la la la, but the fact is the dairy industry is collapsing, the 1 pc have largely taken over, most of the people have been duped and crisis after crisis is being announced, jk is a lying con man and climate change is happening. Probably nobody wants to bug your phone though…

      • Reddelusion 11.1.1
        4 July 2015 at 4:28 pm

        Dairy is a commodity,its price goes up and down, can you tell when you will roll out peak oil again KB , The 1pc is a left construct, say it enough and you will believe it, Yes the majority of people are been duped only the the enlightened like kb can see what’s happening ( that’s called arrogance or possibly delusion) The left cry of crisis on crisis and that democracy been undermined is getting boring( what’s that story about cry wolf, or chicken little also comes to mind) Jk lying conman, if you say so Kb, but it’s really a silly statement, Climate change,climate is always changing, how much is man made and the required response is also however debatable Now chill out and enjoy the rugby, the world aint that bad and is not going to hell in a handcart, there are many more periods in human history far worse than now

    • Ad 11.2
      4 July 2015 at 2:51 pm

      You are excellent comedy.

  12. Herodotus 12
    4 July 2015 at 2:01 pm

    How to maintain growth as per Herodotus
    Allow mass immigration or allow mass emigration out of the rural areas and major immigration to Auckland.
    Increases building activity and manufacturing of building materials and allow a scapegoat of Auckland council to solve the infrastructure shambles that will eventuate, unaided. Who needs a doctorate in how to make a govt look good for 4-6 years 😇then get voted out and let the other side solve the mess😢

    • Ad 12.1
      4 July 2015 at 2:22 pm

      It’s turning every Auckland homeowner into millionaires so far.
      Even if they can’t get one, everyone wants to own a house in Auckland.

      Right now – despite about 5.7% unemployment – Auckland remains in a permanent boom.

  13. Adrian 13
    4 July 2015 at 2:32 pm

    It’s a lot worse than you think. I was in a farmers supply store yesterday and the conversation between a dairy farmer and the sales person.
    SP ” Hows the cows ”
    DF ” Dried em off a lot earlier than last year, costing more to milk than we were getting” .( Production drops towards the end of the season.)
    SP ” Thats not good”
    DF “That’s not the worst of it, we’ve just been told to expect somewhere in the 3’s”
    SP ” Shit ! ”
    Exactly. Don’t be too quick to wish ill on this Government (as much as I like to ), $3 a kg will hurt all of us particularily the poorest really badly.

    • whateva next? 13.1
      4 July 2015 at 2:53 pm

      Did they watch Joyce on “The Nation” this morning? He must have been talking about farming on Planet Key then?

  14. Macro 14
    4 July 2015 at 3:38 pm

    I think they were referring to this rock star – Tommy Irons
    Interviewed here by Peter Sellers

  15. Macro 15
    4 July 2015 at 3:50 pm

    I Think Rock Star represents Bill:

  16. G C 16
    4 July 2015 at 11:12 pm

    *ROCK-STARTS* are known for leading unsustainable lives

    *ROCK-STARTS* are known for poor judgement

    *ROCK-STARTS* are known to ‘burn-out’

    Obviously I could go on, but you get the point. Stars by nature are known to go super-nova? Anyway, it’s a foolish label to place on an economy and arrogant. To be fair the media did pick it up, plus I’m not convinced it’s a John Key original?

  17. upnorth 17
    5 July 2015 at 8:22 pm

    it was other people who said rockstar and the media jumped on it and i mean all media.

    we have a rockstar country though