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Tick tock.

Written By: - Date published: 1:01 pm, September 5th, 2017 - 45 comments
Categories: climate change - Tags: ,

A wee reality check,

From NASA,

July 2017 was statistically tied with July 2016 as the warmest July in the 137 years of modern record-keeping, according to a monthly analysis of global temperatures by scientists at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York.

Last month was about 0.83 degrees Celsius warmer than the mean July temperature of the 1951-1980 period. Only July 2016 showed a similarly high temperature (0.82 °C), all previous months of July were more than a tenth of a degree cooler.

 

Green Party suite of climate change policies and main climate change position and principles.

Time to pick a side.

 

45 comments on “Tick tock.”

  1. Sanctuary 1

    Once they win power, I guess what next will be up to Labour and NZ First to decide. 😉

    • Yep Labour and The Greens will have much to discuss as they work through responses and mitigation for this generations nuclear free like issue. Cannot wait to see what proposals they come up with meanwhile I, like many, will keep building resilience. My 2.5 year old said to me yesterday, ‘daddy I have an idea’. That fills me with a lot of hope that sentence.

    • weka 1.2

      Ok, so you don’t take CC seriously, good to know.

    • alwyn 1.3

      Yes, it will either be a Labour/NZF or a National/NZF one. Whatever it is Winston will be there.
      I wonder if the auction to obtain Winston’s support will last as long as the one in 1996? That was six weeks, wasn’t it?
      I can just see him at the rostrum. “I have now been offered the deputy PM, the Finance portfolio, a knighthood and 5 years as High Commissioner on London starting in 2 years time, plus 3 positions paying at least $50k/year after my return from the UK on the boards of SOEs”.
      The bid is from Labour Bill. Are you willing to raise your offer in order to persuade me to go with National?

      • tracey 1.3.1

        Second poll where NZF votes have dropped. Down to 6.6 % now. I haven’t seen the same headlines of plummeting, dying, crashing as we had for the Greens.

        • alwyn 1.3.1.1

          I guess that the real difference is that this is the lowest figure NZF have had, and it is still reasonably safely above the 5% line of death.
          Two of the last three polls have had the Green party either out of the House or right on the edge of the precipice. Go under 5% on the day and they are like the Dodo.

          In relation to the other comment about the quality of policy. I agree that the Green Party policy is as good as anyone’s. I don’t think very many people can be bothered reading that much though.

          • tracey 1.3.1.1.1

            Same poll has Greens at 6.1%

            People should not have to read. Instead of endless “I reckon” pieces from our media they could be disseminating policy and analysing it for people. That used to be their role. Actually you may not like Green policy but it leaves other parties for dead in its specifics.

            • alwyn 1.3.1.1.1.1

              Possibly so.
              However it is about as relevant as the TOP policy. It really isn’t worth reading prior to the election as neither of them is going to be in Parliament after the election.
              It is like reading up on string theory in Physics. It may be interesting mathematics but it isn’t Physics in any testable form.

    • tracey 1.4

      You guess?

    • tracey 1.5

      NZF

      “New Zealand First will:

      Ensure that the state strikes a balance between economic progress and appropriate environmental goals.
      Take account of the views of key stakeholders when making environmental policy.
      Support consultative debate on the issue of extractive industries, ensuring that core conservation values are maintained.
      Seek higher Crown levies on minerals extracted and return 25 per cent royalties to the source regions.
      Make sure developers are responsible to their communities to avoid, remedy and mitigate adverse environmental effects.
      Oppose the Emissions Trading Scheme which sees profiteering from our environment.
      Advocate that the government and industry work together to address pollution.
      Provide and promote conservation authorities with the necessary resources and legislative framework to ensure the protection of the environment.
      Ensure that the Resource Management Act is stringently applied to all fracking operations.
      Support an evidence based approach to environmental issues which are often complex, challenging with high degrees of uncertainty.”

      Short on detail and specifics. Broad enough statements to allow alot of wiggle room, including to do bugger all.

      • alwyn 1.5.1

        Very few parties tell you much about their policies.
        They are only too aware that very few people read them.
        I have in front of me the Labour Party flier.

        On a pretty picture of a creek it says.
        “Clean rivers
        We’ll make our rivers swimmable again, and make sure that companies who bottle water to sell overseas pay a fair royalty back to the community.”

        That’s it, the whole thing. Have they abandoned their policy to tax any commercial user of water, or don’t they want to remind us about an unpopular proposal?
        Are you seriously going to tell me that that policy is more detailed and specific that the NZF one?

        • tracey 1.5.1.1

          If you look at Greens they are by far the most specific in their policies.

          Why would I tell you that Labour’s was more specific? I do not know where that notion came from alwyn. You made a comment about NZF, so I pasted their policy.

          What do you base your claim of “unpopular” on?

          This one says 70% support the water levy
          http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11912604

          • alwyn 1.5.1.1.1

            That article was when all the royalties were going to be spent on cleaning up rivers. People answered a question that basically said that that was the only reason they were being collected and would all be spent on cleaning up the rivers.
            That is a very emotional image and got exactly the reaction I would expect.

            Do you think it would be as popular if it asked something like?
            Are you willing to pay significantly more for your locally grown fruit and vegetables in order that we can provide funds to local bodies, some of which will probably be spent on roading? Levies will not be imposed on imports.

            • tracey 1.5.1.1.1.1

              Do you hold the party you support to the same scrutiny?

              • alwyn

                I am a floating voter Tracey.
                Since 1981, with one occasion when I did not vote, I have voted 6 times for National and 5 for Labour.

                I think after 3 terms it is time for a change. I don’t believe a Government should have more than 3 terms because they get tired and have few new ideas.
                The problem is that you need to have a competent lot from the Opposition benches to form a new Government. Labour simply haven’t shown the ability to do the job properly. They have spent 9 years wandering in the wilderness instead of refreshing their Caucus with new people and new ideas.
                I can expect National to continue along similar lines to the ones they have followed. Labour? Damned if I know. Mostly, I fear, because they have no idea, and their leader doesn’t seem to have the knowledge of Government that she would need.

                With no record it is much more important to know the plans of some newbies than it is to consider the changes likely to be made by the incumbents.
                I am, probably going to vote for National again. Better a tired but competent lot than a fresh but foolish group. Why, for God’s sake, did they get rid of Shearer? He would have made a very good PM I think.

        • McFlock 1.5.1.2

          Are you seriously trying to make an argument by comparing NZ1’s policy web page with a Labour party leaflet, rather than the relevant Labour party policy webpage?

          Yes, yes you are.

          You’ve always been bottom of the barrel, but the slime at the bottom of the barrel used to be a bit more substantial.

          • alwyn 1.5.1.2.1

            There are a few more words I agree, and a wider angle picture. I mention the picture specifically because it is more than half of the page.

            It still also talks about water bottlers only though, giving them as the specific example of the people they are going after.
            It also says that all the royalties will go to clean up our waterways and never mentions the fact that apparently councils will be allowed to spend them on anything they want and that payments will also be made to local iwi.
            Surely they can do better than that?
            I think that the material on the NZF webpage is equally as complete as is the Labour Party page you link to.

            • tracey 1.5.1.2.1.1

              National haven’t even bothered putting leaflets in the post, or is it just Amy Adams who doesn’t bother?

            • McFlock 1.5.1.2.1.2

              ” I mention the picture specifically because it is more than half of the page.”
              No, it is the width of the page column and about a quarter of the page height

              “It still also talks about water bottlers only though, giving them as the specific example of the people they are going after.”

              sigh. another half-assed lie.

              The royalty for bottled water will be based on per litre and the royalty for irrigation water will be based on per 1000 litres. It will be proportionate and fair.

              “It also says that all the royalties will go to clean up our waterways and never mentions the fact that apparently councils will be allowed to spend them on anything they want and that payments will also be made to local iwi”

              Lol. It’s still much more detailed than the fucking leaflet you used as your first lie. Why should anyone care what you claim to think? You’re just a liar.

              • alwyn

                You are right. There is more. When I follow you link I only get the first page and no way to scroll down the material.
                The only screen I get stops at “restore our waterways for future generations”. I can’t see any more which is why I made my comment about the paucity of the material.
                If I go in directly to the Labour Party website I get to see quite a lot more as now I can scroll down..
                I don’t understand what is going on.

                • McFlock

                  you’re on a phone?

                  • alwyn

                    No a standard Windows/Internet Explorer desk top.
                    Odd.

                    • McFlock

                      Can’t help but think that there’s a story in that somewhere, about someone who suddenly realises they’ve been wrong for years simply because their browser has always missed out half the web page.

                    • alwyn

                      Now that really is below the belt.

                      I suppose I could reply
                      “Can’t help but think that there’s a story in that somewhere, about someone who suddenly realises they’ve been making a mess of things for years simply because they can’t set up links properly and other people cannot therefore read them”

                      I won’t though………..

  2. Poission 2

    yesterday was the 7th anniversary of the Darfield earthquake seemed to be missing from politicized blabber.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Canterbury_earthquake

    at present the greatest risks to central nz are aftershocks following the Kaikoura event with a probabilistic risk of >99% for a 5-5.9 event or a 54% chance of a 6-6.9 event.

    https://www.geonet.org.nz/earthquake/forecast/#

  3. DSpare 3

    The leaked report that is talked about in the stuff article Shaw links to is here:

    Click to access CH_Guide_Draft4-webversion.pdf

    It is 286 pages long (240 after you factor out references, contents pages & glossary), so I only been dipping into sections rather than going cover to cover. There is a lot there, little of it serving to improve the optimism levels of the reader. One thing I’ve found interesting (in a grim way) is the effect of rising sealevels not only on; destructive storm surges, and; higher tides aggravating flooding by preventing river waterflows (such as in this year’s Taieri floods) but also on; the salination of groundwater. You can already see this happen in lowlying bays and estuaries (Waitati is the example that springs to mind for me), where food is getting harder to grow in nearby gardens, unless you build up a raised bed and bring in fresh soil.

    • weka 3.1

      That’s interesting. Haven’t looked at in a while but there was some work being done on how aquifer drainage pulls the meeting point between sea and fresh groundwater further inland. That was in Canterbury, even before the current push on irrigation. Disaster being helped into being in multiple ways.

  4. This is about Houston and Harvey but it had this simple paragraph in it which I think is important:

    In the US, the debate over global warming is often treated as one between those who like government intervention and those who support a free market. This is nonsense.

    We can easily replace the ‘US’ in there with NZ because the same cleft applies in NZ and it’s just as ridiculous here as there.

    We need to address the changes that we’ve brought about with industrialised society and stop closing our eyes hoping that it will go away.

  5. tracey 5

    Climate Change is the Nuclear Free of our times… apparently.

    Ardern said it was the “my generation’s nuclear-free moment”.”

    OR

    That is what Labour said to wrench former Labour voters back from the Greens.

  6. Bill 6

    First, the good news. From the link in the post

    It concludes that $19 billion worth of buildings, about 43,000 homes, 130,000 people, five airports, more than 2000 kilometres of road and 46km of railway face “higher levels of coastal risk exposure” as a consequence of rising sea levels.

    Now for the bad news.

    The report is based on the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC.

    The IPCC is essentially a conservative synthesis of the scientific community’s major reports. Those reports themselves are based on Integrated Assessment Models (IAM) where data and assumptions are flung into a computer programme that then plays out complex inter-relationships between different data sets.

    Inclusion of negative emission technology, lower than observed emission rates and lower than observed cumulative emissions is ubiquitous – meaning that reports quite seriously underplay possible outcomes….which the IPCC then imposes a further conservative take on for its synthesis reports

    Also The IPCC deliberately excluded any impact on sea level rise from Antarctica.

    Go back to the top of this comment and the numbers and dollar signs around damage reported in “Stuff’ by 2050. That’s assuming a 40cm rise in sea level by 2050, which is based on a 1m sea level rise by 2100.

    Put Antarctica back into the picture and throw in the climate records from paleontology to get to why leading researchers like NASA’s Eric Rugnot are pretty damned adamant that between 3m and 6m of sea level rise is already locked, loaded and coming our way within human life timescales.

    Okay. Back to good news…

    edit – An “interesting” additional snippet. Ice cliffs that are free floating cannot be any more than about 100m high (ie, above water) before the ice “explodes” due to loss of structural integrity. Antarctica is being melted from below and that means that ice that’s currently miles thick, but grounded on rock, is going to be on water….and collapsing. And collapsing. And collapsing.

    The good news is “weddings on ice” off the coast of Otago or something. Maybe.

      • Bill 6.1.1

        The Greens and TOPs have by far the best policies. But their policies are based on IPCC synthesis reports. Nuff said?

        • tracey 6.1.1.1

          Yes. We should all be very worried.

          • Bill 6.1.1.1.1

            Or angry. Very fucking angry.

            And maybe demanding of various and many political clowns that they stop messing about and get real….ie, that they stop uncritically accepting what’s on the menu (IPCC Reports) and get down to dealing with what physics is going to be slapping on our plate.

            • tracey 6.1.1.1.1.1

              Sing it brother!

            • Eco maori 6.1.1.1.1.2

              That’s the way bill give them the message strait up no bull shit that we need to act now not wait till our fucken WORLD is nearly fucked and then start trying to change our systems it will be to FUCKEN TO late.
              The neo liberals DON’T want to go green because they will lose all the control they have on our WORLD that’s why they love oil at the moment oil is the commodity that controls our WORLD the neo liberals are control freaks.
              Take oil out of the picture and they lose there main leaver/leverage. The FUCKEN idiots can’t see past there BANK ACCOUNTS.
              If everyone has solar no control for the neo liberals and so on wood products card board all the green products and industries the Big boy neo liberals have a mind set that is single minded .The neo liberals will cheat lie steal
              To keep power/control in our country and our world wake up people we need to fight these ideological asshole and take control of our country and our world .
              Nobody’s going to do this for us or our children. If you read one of my earlier post you will see what mind set these greedy ass holes have there is no MULITY UNERVISE .

              • Eco maori

                And it stinks to high heaven that the climate change topics were not debated last nite THANKS Weka

    • DSpare 6.2

      Bill
      Rignot et al’s (2014) paper; “Widespread, rapid grounding line retreat of Pine Island, Thwaites, Smith, and Kohler glaciers, West Antarctica, from 1992 to 2011”, is referenced in the leaked report: So they are not unaware of his work. You are right that they lean heavily on the IPCC 5, which is fairly conservative, but then Rignot himself contributed to the IPCC 4.

    • Liberal Realist 6.3

      Go back to the top of this comment and the numbers and dollar signs around damage reported in “Stuff’ by 2050. That’s assuming a 40cm rise in sea level by 2050, which is based on a 1m sea level rise by 2100.

      Very bad news indeed Bill. As you’ve mentioned the IPCC assessments are very conservative, I’d even say extremely conservative to the point that their estimates have been consistently underestimated pace and impact of climate change.

      Factoring in Antarctica + feedback loops and the many many unknowns (e.g. exponential collapse of Greenland, methane clathrate release) things could be much much worse, and happen much faster than anyone ever thought possible.

      As a side note, I’ve read a few articles, papers, and studies that postulate that global warming could actually precipitate an ice age should enough fresh water be released to shut down global thermohaline circulation. From what I’ve read there is a fair amount of evidence (measuring isotopes in ice cores or sediment) to suggest that melt in the recent geological past was enough to shut down the AMOC in the Atlantic. Should Greenland melt completely along with massive loss of the Antarctic ice sheet then who knows if the entire circulation system could be shut down?

      • Bill 6.3.1

        The paleontological record suggests that ocean currents shut down with the loss of temperature differential between waters at the polar regions and waters at the tropics.

        We’re already seeing a slowing of the jet stream in the northern hemisphere’s atmosphere due to the same loss of the atmopsheres temperature differentials.

        When ocean currents ‘shut down’, oxygen stops circulating into deeper waters and the oceans become anoxic and home to bacteria that ‘exhale’ hydrogen sulphide. Hydrogen sulphide kills mammals and (so it’s postulated) was responsible for the almost wholesale extinction of mammalian life forms immediately prior to the rise of the dinosaurs (hydrogen sulphide has much less of an effect on reptiles apparently).

        And yeah. I didn’t know that mammals preceded dinosaurs in terms of dominant life form, but there you go.

  7. Macro 7

    Whilst Labour and National argue over a $11B non existent funding “gap” . National attempts to hide from the electorate a conservative forecast (as pointed out by Bill above – these figures are based upon the 5th IPCC assessment which even today Climate Scientists note is well out of day and is purposefully conservative even when being drafted for it needs to pass muster by all Nations – including the US).
    The conservative forecast of the report being hidden by National calculates that over the next 32 years the cost to the nation of structural damage and loss of infrastructure will amount to around $1/2 B per year! I don’t see that figure being costed in either of Labour’s or National’s projected Budgets.
    At a meet the candidates meeting a few weeks back The NZ First candidate boasted that they had the best policy on Climate Change – so I went looking to see what their Policy statement was.
    The first statement was that they would can the ETS because it was ineffectual! I thought that that was rich… Noting that the ETS was a direct result of NZ First withholding support for the initial proposal of a Carbon Tax! JF tells me, that she first became aware of a the move from a Carbon Tax to an ETS, when she happened to see a draft of the ETS Bill on Helen’s desk! She knew even then that this was going to be a fizzer and so it proved. The Green’s deliberated long and hard as to whether to support the Bill and did so in the hope that it would have some effect and would not be watered down – as it was immediately by National on the change of Govt.
    NZ First do not say in their Policy how they would put a price on Carbon Emissions – so frankly they have no real policy on dealing with Climate Change except to work towards mitigation.
    A vote for NZ First is a vote against reality and the planet.

  8. greywarshark 8

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    Date and Time

    Fri 8 September 2017

    7:00 PM – 8:00 PM NZST

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    Location

    Small Lecture Theatre Level D

    University of Otago, Wellington Hospital

    23A Mein Street

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    Organiser: Victoria Catherwood (5th year medical student) and Veronica Stevenson (Spindle Fibre Films)

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  9. Incognito 9

    Rather than teaching primary school children a second language I’d make sure that they all can swim really well. Talking about priorities …

    • greywarshark 9.1

      The swimming bit is important and should go along with a second language starting with te reo. Children pick up languages quickly, speaking a number is a mind-widening exercise that enables the growth in experience and understanding when you are aware of others in the world and how our world meshes.

      One of the reasons we are dropping in all the measures of civilisation in this part of the world is we have had a simple education to enable us to enter the higher developed world but many of us have never tried to do that.

      A better and wider education would guarantee that we would do better than the USA does in being able to not answer any simple trivia questions as in this link. We should try it, if you are a bloke and tried to conduct a poll here in NZ you might enjoy asking semi-clad women – an extra bonus.
      Some Americans are ignorant and proud of it!
      (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2KpPKxTMmrY

  10. Philj 10

    But wait! We are only 1% of the world so the rising oceans won’t affect us. Lol lol.

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