A couple of days ago a US-wide poll by major polling company Rasmussen put Trump ahead of Clinton for the first time ever.
But Trump edges slightly ahead if the stay-at-home option is removed. Trump also now does twice as well among Democrats as Clinton does among Republicans.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely U.S. Voters finds Trump with 41% support to Clinton’s 39%. Fifteen percent (15%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
This is the first time Trump has led the matchup since last October. Clinton held a 41% to 36% advantage in early March
Trump holds a significant lead on Clinton amongst independents:
Among voters not affiliated with either major party, Trump leads 37% to 31%, but 23% like another candidate. Nine percent (9%) are undecided.
I think it’s safe to guess that the ‘other candidate’ that independents like is Bernie Sanders.
The phone polling – a small sample size of 1000 – was conducted April 27-28, before Trump clinched the Republican nomination with the withdrawal of Cruz and Kasich from the race.
Trump’s numbers will be even higher now.
We have to bear in mind that this is just one poll and there is a long road ahead before the Presidential Election in November.
But the bottom line here is that a Clinton/Trump match up may be much closer than some think. My bet is that the ever-strengthening anti-establishment vote will mean that the advantage is going to Trump’s camp.
Contrary to beltway expectations, I am picking that if it is a Trump vs Clinton election day, turnout will be high.