This will no doubt see a spike in National Party caucus zoom meetings. The Herald is reporting a new UMR poll that has National in the psychologically humiliating 20-30% band. From Jason Walls at the Herald:
The National Party has dropped below 30 per cent in a UMR poll while Labour has reached as high as 55 per cent.
And when it comes to preferred Prime Minister, Jacinda Ardern has reached a near record-breaking 65 per cent approval rating.
Her popularity eclipses that of her National Party rival, Opposition leader Simon Bridges, who is on a mere 7 per cent.
Bridges is attacking the result. Again from the Herald:
… speaking to the Herald, Bridges rubbished the poll.
“UMR are Labour’s pollsters and are consistently, badly wrong.”
He added that Labour “should be focused on getting New Zealand back to work, not leaking dodgy numbers.”
He should say why he has refused to share National’s internal polling results with his caucus over the past couple of months.
It is time for me to review my earlier calculations. At 29% National would be entitled to 35 seats not allowing for wasted votes.
Presuming the electorate vote swing was 6,000 rather than 5,000 then Hamilton East goes left as does Invercargill, and on a good day Northcote and Otaki. Rangitata is marginal.
Total electorate seats could dip to anything between 30 and 28 leaving room for either 5 or 7 list MPs. National’s list completion process is going to be brutal with this sort of scenario playing out.