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West Australia result

Written By: - Date published: 9:45 am, March 15th, 2021 - 8 comments
Categories: australian politics, elections - Tags:

The weekend state elections in West Australia are astonishing. On top of nearly a 13% two party swing swing for Labour in 2017, there appears to have been about a 17% swing to Labour in the weekend election in preliminary results.

In 59 seat lower house, this has left the Liberals with 2 seats with one other still in contention – they have dropped 11 seats. The Nationals with 3, dropping 2, and currently the opposition party. Labour look to have grown by 10 or more seats.

In the upper house, it looks like Labour have 23 of 36 seats. They probably giving them outright control over both houses.

Reading through the analysis of the inevitable blame game of the Liberals post-election, it appears that an array of former WA Liberal leaders aren’t exactly happy with the result. The young election Lib leader, Zak Kirkup, was catapulted into place just 16 weeks before the election primarily as a result of power broker backroom politics in an already untenable position.

Former Liberal leader Mike Nahan — who described the result as a “disaster” and a “shocking outcome” — called for a “no-holds-barred” review of the outcome, saying it would be wrong to believe the wipeout was simply a product of COVID-19.

“If it was a six per cent or seven per cent swing I would accept that … but this is just a wipeout,” Dr Nahan said.Get up to speed on the WA electionThe politics, the policies and the people. We’ve collected all our coverage on the election campaign here.Read more

The retiring Dr Nahan, whose former seat of Riverton has fallen into Labor’s hands, said there were significant campaign missteps.

“The energy policy was a debacle,” he said.

“And I think, in the end, you will see his statement that “we have lost”, that we had no chance of winning, just was not right.

“You don’t give up and you never give up.”

ABC News: “WA election: Former Liberal MPs lash out as party takes stock amid poll wipeout

The energy policy referred to was to the Liberals under Zak Kirkup making a commitment to getting to zero carbon emissions by 2030, closing coal powered stations within 4 years, and investing heavily in renewable sources of energy. Two and half weeks before the election Zak Kirkup pointed out that the opinion polls were running heavily against the Liberals and shifting to a balance of power argument about not giving Labour complete control of the state houses.

Zak Kirkup denied his decision to concede defeat two weeks out from the election had driven voters away and said he wished he had made the comments from “day one” of the campaign.

“I wish we’d done it sooner because for the last two-and-a-half weeks, we’ve had a single message about what would happen with Labor’s risk, but of course in the last two-and-a-half weeks it’s a challenging media environment, there’s a lot of competing issues that came up,” he said.

“People were really worried about checks and balances and I wish I had longer to prosecute that [argument].”

Mr Kirkup also rejected suggestions the party’s green energy policy was a mistake and said there was less of a swing against the Liberals in the coal mining electorate of Collie-Preston than in his own electorate of Dawesville.

“I think it will be convenient for people to blame the new energy jobs plan, rather than to accept the fact that actually we were up against a juggernaut in Mark McGowan,” he said.

The former MP also said he did not think there was an issue with powerbrokers in the party.

“When I look at my own circumstances, there were no deals done for me to become leader of the party, I didn’t seek any deals or anything like that — I got the confidence of my partyroom and that was that.”

ABC News: “WA election: Former Liberal MPs lash out as party takes stock amid poll wipeout

The opinion polls relate to the new standard that appears to be creeping into state politics in Australia. There appears to be a trend for less straight party line voting, and far more strong polling and electoral support for straight competency in dealing with covid-19. This has obvious implications for the Federal elections as the Roy Morgan analysis pointed out last month.

Primary support for the L-NP is now at 40% (down 2% points since November) compared to the ALP on 34.5% (up 0.5% points). Greens support has also increased and is now at 13% (up 1% point).

Support for One Nation is down 0.5% points to 3.5% while support for Independents/Others has increased 1% point to 9%.

Federal Voting Intention by State shows benefit of strong State Governments

Voting analysis by State shows the swing to the ALP is built on swings to the ALP since the last Federal Election in the three States with an ALP State Government – Victoria, Queensland and WA.

In Victoria the ALP now leads strongly on a two-party preferred basis: ALP 55% cf. L-NP 45%, a swing of 1.9% to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election. There is one seat the L-NP holds in Victoria on a margin of less than 1.9% which is Chisholm (0.6%).

In Queensland the LNP is still in front on a two-party preferred basis but its lead has been significantly reduced: LNP 52% cf. ALP 48%, a swing of 6.4% to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election. The LNP currently holds 23 out of 30 seats in Queensland compared to only 6 for the ALP.

The LNP holds five Queensland seats with a margin of less than 6.4% including Longman (3.3%), Leichhardt (4.2%), Dickson (4.6%), Brisbane (4.9%) and Ryan (6%).

In WA there has been a big swing with the ALP now marginally in front on a two-party preferred basis: ALP 50.5% cf. L-NP 49.5% – a swing of 6.1% to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election. The Liberals currently hold 11 out of 16 seats in Western Australia compared to only 5 for the ALP.

Roy Morgan: 19th Feb 2021 “ALP (50.5%) gains lead over L-NP (49.5%) on the back of strength in Victoria, Queensland & WA

8 comments on “West Australia result ”

  1. RedLogix 1

    Beat me to it. A remarkable result.

    With three states now having strong Labour leaders, Annastacia Palaszczuk (QLD), Dan Andrews (VIC) and now Mark McGowan (WA) – this is going to have Federal implications for certain.

    Also latest poll (done by the generally conservative Australian) has come out with a rubbish result for Morrison.

    The primary vote for the Liberal and Nationals parties has tumbled three points to 39 per cent after four weeks of damaging headlines since news.com.au broke Brittany Higgins story on February 15.

    It's my reading that much of the energy in Australian politics resides in the economic split between rural and urban electorates – but as this last NZ election showed – it's entirely possible for the left to do well in the regions if it plays a sane and sensible platform. Which to it's credit the ALP is doing at present.

  2. Ad 2

    At a Federal level Labor have been out of power since 2013, and it's a tough leap from State to Federal contests.

    It will be hard for either Labor or Liberals to overcome a fear of strong energy policies when it appears partially causal in this West Australian landslide.

    Can Coronavirus blame win the epistemic crisis that has infected Australian politics within the climate debate?

    Australia kept the Liberals in power in no small part because a majority of Queensland people backed the Andani coal mine and damn the environmental consequences. From the polls cited it still looks really tight there.

    And yet in boardrooms right around Australia, well before most people had heard of the novel coronavirus, and in Zoom rooms throughout the crisis itself, one issue keeps calling out: Australia's longstanding energy policy paralysis and its consequences for business costs and investor certainty and rural community sustainability.

    It's been a very long 9 years.

    • RedLogix 2.1

      fear of strong energy policies

      Australia is one of the relatively few places on earth where renewables work really well, both technically and economically. No-one wants to build new coal plants in Australia and as the existing fleet retires SWB renewables will almost certainly step up.

      This will be a huge test case for the technology.

      Australia kept the Liberals in power in no small part because a majority of Queensland people backed the Andani coal mine and damn the environmental consequences. From the polls cited it still looks really tight there.

      But not hopeless. The issue in regional QLD is very real, the divide between Brisbane and the rest is pretty damned stark and successive govts have failed dismally to reduce it. Now is their opportunity to push some real developments that don’t rely on coal into the regions.

    • lprent 2.2

      At a Federal level Labor have been out of power since 2013, and it's a tough leap from State to Federal contests.

      That was what really showed in the 2019 federal election. The house federal elections in recent decades tend to get results that are within the 2-3% margin of polling error between the rather rigid coalitions on the right and Labour on the left. Which makes the federal election campaigns far more important than they have been here recently (our elections are largely determined by what coalitions are possible).

      Australian federal Labour have tended to lose the election campaigns mostly for the visible factionalism has been easy to sling mud at during the election campaigns to sway floating voters. Especially (as you and RL say) due to the voting urban / region splits over employment related to emissions.

      That debate will eventually peter out as renewable power becomes even cheaper than thermal coal power worldwide. This as much as the anti-mine campaign is why Adani's Carmichael project has been steadily scaled back and scaled back again over the last decade.

      The remaining coal market is likely to be in a specific lower volume areas like high carbon steel making where it is harder to remove the technical need.

  3. RedBaronCV 3

    I am surprised as to how little coverage this has had in the MSM given that the opposition now "fits in a toyota corolla" per one commentator. I will be interested to see if the good covid response which has been driven by state premier,s while ScoMo fiddles around contributing less than nothing, rubs off on ScoMo in the federal elections in a positive or a negative way.? Or will the rest of ScoMo's unattended scandals do him in?

    BTW Lprent I spent a couple of days with a 504 no access error which suddenly vanished. Running firefox laptop windows 10 plus i use the firefox option to route searches so the ISP does not have a list

  4. greywarshark 4

    It would be great if there could be an Australia Watch appearing regularly here. They are veering in a direction that is unnerving to watch and some cool heads analysing what is going on so we are up with the play would be good. We have some Australia-knowledgables who write here, Red and Scud come directly to mind.

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/438459/norfolk-island-council-s-suspension-extended-by-a-year This is latest in news abut Norfolk Island governance and Australia. They have had their democratic systems disrupted, money problems etc and Australia has just taken them over, and they protest their lack of democracy and oversight. We have had similar internally when NZ government take over Ecan enabling it to override controls to water allocation for irrigation that has made some people very rich and the country with a growing problem of foul waterways. How much reliable sovereignty do we have left after the great powers have a go, and we have signed a lot away with trade treaties that end up with the rest of the world getting first bite out of anything we get going?

    A recent report said an offender pinched a carton of alcohol and that NZs offenders are being badly treated. Of course that happens here also. Can we improve treatment in both countries? A news item relating to a 'trash' comment by Australia's 'Deathshead' Dutton gave coverage to the situation. <i>Two days ago she spoke to a 20-year-old who has been in a detention centre for two and a half years for the crime of stealing a six-pack of bourbon. https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/438241/trash-row-time-for-nz-to-act-on-harsh-demoralising-detention-centres-advocate</i&gt;

    Australia's finest! https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/438183/australia-501-deportees-trash-says-dutton |

    But let's give the deportees something to get started, and a friendly hand. https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/morningreport/audio/2018787533/501-deportees-say-they-ve-got-a-lot-to-offer-if-we-let-them

    Then it appears to me that we are being treated by Oz as Mexico is by the USA. Our people are like 'wetbacks'; Oz is putting up a type of barrier against us, treating us with disrespect, while at the same time making a lot of money for themselves similar to the way USA exploits Mexico.

    Australia has taken on the role of 'Sheriff of the Pacific' and is alongside the USA. The two of them are pretty brutal to whoever disagrees with them. They are training army personnel here and perhaps our police are getting included. For the situation of vulnerable countries next to dominant and over-bearing neighbours, think of Ireland, its famine, and Britain so close and with such a footprint over that considerably-sized island. Remember how Brit transported their people after minor crimes to Australia and now Oz seems to be reverting to past history.

    I see there is a need for our over-stretched airport connected businesses to have a travel bubble with Australia, or go out of business, They could cope with another outbreak of Covid19 as they would not be financially responsible for a costly outbreak which would be borne by the government and citizens. It would be interesting to see if there was Australian money in the Auckland Airport's finances, and the businesses connected with it. https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/checkpoint/audio/2018787597/we-re-ready-as-businesses-hang-on-for-trans-tasman-travel-deal-auckland-airport-ceo

    We are tied in to Australia, and must remember it is like wrestling an anaconda! See: Nigel Marven wrestles an enormous anaconda -https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=szF6iZthvvQ

    • RedLogix 4.1

      An AusWatch? I've thought about it from time to time – I might give it a go.

      For the time being how about this rather interesting article.

      The last RBA Governor, a man named Glenn Stevens, barely spoke about full employment. The current governor, Philip Lowe, talks about it all the time. He has made it his mission.

      “We want to see a return to full employment in Australia and inflation sustainably within the 2 to 3 per cent target range,” he said last week. “These are our goals and we are committed to achieving them.”

      If he can achieve that, it will be pretty exciting. Not just for the unemployed and the underemployed, but for anyone who’d like a wage rise. There’s not much chance of companies offering big pay rises when there’s a large stock of unemployed (and underemployed) people out there. But when the labour market gets tighter, they will need to offer more money to tempt people to come work for them.

      Lower unemployment, higher wages. It sounds idyllic. Almost too good to be true. But at least, finally, we’re aiming for it.

      It may be a tad optimistic – but it's certainly a positive take on their economy and a big vote of confidence. And one that NZ should be looking toward as well.

  5. greywarshark 5

    Some background on NZ's past history with Oz and some important Australians and on how we can be mistaken to let our guard down.

    One agency's opinion: The Lowy Institute is an independent think tank founded in April 2003 by Frank Lowy to conduct original, policy-relevant research about international political, strategic and economic issues from an Australian perspective. It is based in Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
    Location: Sydney Formation: 2003
    Lowy Institute – Wikipedia

    About: Sir Frank P. Lowy AC (born 22 October 1930) is an Australian-Israeli businessman of Jewish Slovakian-Hungarian origins and the former long-time Chairman of Westfield Corporation, a global shopping centre company with US$29.3 billion of assets under management in the United States, United Kingdom and Europe.
    Frank Lowy – Wikipedia

    Reminds me of Peter Abeles.

    Sir Peter Emil Herbert Abeles, AC (25 April 1924 – 25 June 1999) was an Australian transportation magnate. A refugee from Hungary, he became a businessman in Australia, and was knighted in 1972.
    Born: 25 April 1924, Vienna Died: 25 June 1999, Sydney
    Peter Abeles – Wikipedia

    Abeles has interesting connection with NZ 'Both Abeles and Murdoch jointly controlled the airline as Ansett's joint …' In September 1992 he left TNT to concentrate his efforts on the ailing Ansett, but just two months later he stepped down from the airline as well.

    In February 2000, Air New Zealand acquired full ownership of Ansett, buying out News Corporation's stake for A$680 million, surpassing Singapore Airlines's A$500 million bid.

    4 March 2002 Ansett Australia/Ceased operations
    Flights operated by the Ansett Australia Group ceased from midnight on Monday 4 March, 2002. This site now provides information regarding the Ansett Australia Group administration.

    Also https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/ansett-storm-leaves-pm-clark-stranded/2NQRNXZRUEDJCLZRP3VKNOIE5M/

    2001 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2001/sep/17/patrickbarkham

    I think this is the informative book which details events: https://www.penguin.co.nz/books/mayday-how-warring-egos-forced-qantas-off-course-9780670078370

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